[Flat Racing Saturday 29th of September]

Re: Flat Racing Saturday 29th of September

Betfred Cambridgeshire – Newmarket The seven-year-old Rambo’s Hall (‘92) and the eight-year-old Baronet (’80) are the only two older horses to win the Betfred Cambridgeshire since 1977 so it should be fairly safe to discount the chances of Stevie Thunder and the 2010 winner Credit Swap. In that same period there hadn’t been a single five-year-old winner until Credit Swap broke their long losing run in 2010 and woe and behold Prince Of Johanne followed suit last year. Therefore, five-year-olds can no longer be viewed in a negative light. In the last decade, three and four-year-olds have won six renewals and the strength of that trend is backed up when looking at the bigger picture over the last 35 years. Three-year-olds have won 11 times and four-year-olds 14 times or in other words 25 of the last 35 – a pretty strong return in anyone’s book. Six-year-olds may have only won the race six times since 1977 but four of those have come in the last 13 years. Their record looks even stronger considering that on average they are responsible for half as many runners as three-year-olds and a third as many as four-year-olds. The 2010 winner, Credit Swap along with I Cried For You and Chivalry all won the Betfred Cambridgeshire off an official rating in the high 80s and last year’s winner Prince Of Johanne did so off 91. But overall, seven of the last ten renewals have been won by horses officially rated between 95 and 102 suggesting that they could well be the group to focus on tomorrow. For the record, of the more fancied runners, Mukhadram, Chill The Kite, Bronze Angel and King’s Warrior all fall into this category. Newbury’s Dubai Duty Free Handicap, a 0-105 handicap run over 1m2f, has provided four recent Cambridgeshire winners. Blue Monday and Formal Decree had both recorded a top three finish in that particular race whilst Spanish Don and Tazeez had both finished mid-division. However, in recent seasons only 7 days separates the two fixtures and therefore it remains to be seen if it will continue have the same impact. Licence To Till is the only representative from that race tomorrow. Quite remarkably, 28 of the last 31 Cambridgeshire winners had achieved a top-four finish on their most recent start – Spanish Don, Tazeez and Supaseus being the three to miss out. Interestingly, both Spanish Don and Tazeez had been unplaced in the aforementioned race at Newbury, whilst Supaseus had hardly finished out with the washing when coming home fifth in a competitive handicap at Sandown. Good news for all of the market leaders. During the last decade, only Spanish Don and Prince Of Johanne have managed to win from a high draw. The overall trend suggests that those drawn in the nine highest numbered stalls are to be opposed – namely Rewarded, Talk About, Postscript, Making Eyes, Loving Spirit, Credit Swap, Mijhaar, Fury, Double Dealer and Spa’s Dancer. Two winning favourites over the past ten years isn’t that bad a return given that the Betfred Cambridgeshire is a fiercely competitive race. Four other winners had been no worse than 6th in the betting implying that the market leaders tend to run to form although this isn’t backed up by an average winning starting price of just under 24-1. However, if you were to discount the recent 100-1, 40-1 and 25-1 winners it has a much more respectable look to it. So overall, the best advice is to favour those towards the forefront of the betting but don’t be put off backing an outsider if one were to take your fancy. John Gosden has a strong record in the Cambridgeshire as from a relatively small number of runners he has won it twice in the last decade and three times overall but sadly he is without a runner this afternoon. In fact, none of the trainers with a particularly strong record in the race have runners this year. Shortlist Bronze Angel Chil The Kite King’s Warrior (Burano) Conclusion BRONZE ANGEL has a profile that seems to fit in well with the roll of honour of past Cambridgeshire winners. After improving from run-to-run as a juvenile he hasn’t done a lot wrong this season with a solid effort on his reappearance at Musselburgh before winning a competitive Doncaster handicap. But perhaps his best effort came in the Britannia when he finished a strong 3rd having been drawn on the wrong side. He hasn’t raced since then, with Marcus Tregoning no doubt keen to protect his handicap mark, so he should arrive here fresh and with a few pounds still up his sleeve. Once again he hasn’t been done any favours by the draw but stall 21 isn’t the end of the world and I find it encouraging that William Buick has been booked for the ride for quite some time. Hughie Morrison’s Chil The Kite has a similar lightly-raced profile. After wins at Doncaster and Ascot, this Notnowcato colt ran well to finish less than 3L behind the well-regarded Thistle Bird, who runs this afternoon in the Rosemary Stakes. If she dominates there I can see Morrison’s colt coming in for plenty of support on Saturday. King’s Warrior might be a 5yo but he doesn’t have many miles on the clock and judged on his comfortable victory at York in July he may still have further improvement in him although he will need to as the handicapper walloped him with a 10lb rise for his rout on the Knavesmire. But like the main selection, Peter Chapple-Hyam put him away after that, so perhaps he believes that a mark of 101 was worth protecting? For those who fancy a punt at a big price Burano might just fit the bill. Currently around 33-1 this Dalakhani colt showed some reasonable form as a juvenile and out in Dubai over the winter when he beat Entifaadha in a listed race before having his limitations exposed in the Gr2 UAE Derby behind Daddy Long Legs. He made his belated reappearance at Newbury last weekend when he ran just the sort of race that you would expect for one being aimed at the Cambridgeshire a week later. Fallon wasn’t overly hard on the horse, no doubt with one eye on tomorrow’s race, but it will have blown away the cobwebs and he could be one that has slipped under the radar. get in bronze angel

[Flat Racing Saturday 29th of September]

Re: Flat Racing Saturday 29th of September Betfred Cambridgeshire – Newmarket The seven-year-old Rambo’s Hall (‘92) and the eight-year-old Baronet (’80) are the only two older horses to win the Betfred Cambridgeshire since 1977 so it should be fairly safe to discount the chances of Stevie Thunder and the 2010 winner Credit Swap. In that same period there hadn’t been a single five-year-old winner until Credit Swap broke their long losing run in 2010 and woe and behold Prince Of Johanne followed suit last year. Therefore, five-year-olds can no longer be viewed in a negative light. In the last decade, three and four-year-olds have won six renewals and the strength of that trend is backed up when looking at the bigger picture over the last 35 years. Three-year-olds have won 11 times and four-year-olds 14 times or in other words 25 of the last 35 – a pretty strong return in anyone’s book. Six-year-olds may have only won the race six times since 1977 but four of those have come in the last 13 years. Their record looks even stronger considering that on average they are responsible for half as many runners as three-year-olds and a third as many as four-year-olds. The 2010 winner, Credit Swap along with I Cried For You and Chivalry all won the Betfred Cambridgeshire off an official rating in the high 80s and last year’s winner Prince Of Johanne did so off 91. But overall, seven of the last ten renewals have been won by horses officially rated between 95 and 102 suggesting that they could well be the group to focus on tomorrow. For the record, of the more fancied runners, Mukhadram, Chill The Kite, Bronze Angel and King’s Warrior all fall into this category. Newbury’s Dubai Duty Free Handicap, a 0-105 handicap run over 1m2f, has provided four recent Cambridgeshire winners. Blue Monday and Formal Decree had both recorded a top three finish in that particular race whilst Spanish Don and Tazeez had both finished mid-division. However, in recent seasons only 7 days separates the two fixtures and therefore it remains to be seen if it will continue have the same impact. Licence To Till is the only representative from that race tomorrow. Quite remarkably, 28 of the last 31 Cambridgeshire winners had achieved a top-four finish on their most recent start – Spanish Don, Tazeez and Supaseus being the three to miss out. Interestingly, both Spanish Don and Tazeez had been unplaced in the aforementioned race at Newbury, whilst Supaseus had hardly finished out with the washing when coming home fifth in a competitive handicap at Sandown. Good news for all of the market leaders. During the last decade, only Spanish Don and Prince Of Johanne have managed to win from a high draw. The overall trend suggests that those drawn in the nine highest numbered stalls are to be opposed – namely Rewarded, Talk About, Postscript, Making Eyes, Loving Spirit, Credit Swap, Mijhaar, Fury, Double Dealer and Spa’s Dancer. Two winning favourites over the past ten years isn’t that bad a return given that the Betfred Cambridgeshire is a fiercely competitive race. Four other winners had been no worse than 6th in the betting implying that the market leaders tend to run to form although this isn’t backed up by an average winning starting price of just under 24-1. However, if you were to discount the recent 100-1, 40-1 and 25-1 winners it has a much more respectable look to it. So overall, the best advice is to favour those towards the forefront of the betting but don’t be put off backing an outsider if one were to take your fancy. John Gosden has a strong record in the Cambridgeshire as from a relatively small number of runners he has won it twice in the last decade and three times overall but sadly he is without a runner this afternoon. In fact, none of the trainers with a particularly strong record in the race have runners this year. Shortlist Bronze Angel Chil The Kite King’s Warrior (Burano) Conclusion BRONZE ANGEL has a profile that seems to fit in well with the roll of honour of past Cambridgeshire winners. After improving from run-to-run as a juvenile he hasn’t done a lot wrong this season with a solid effort on his reappearance at Musselburgh before winning a competitive Doncaster handicap. But perhaps his best effort came in the Britannia when he finished a strong 3rd having been drawn on the wrong side. He hasn’t raced since then, with Marcus Tregoning no doubt keen to protect his handicap mark, so he should arrive here fresh and with a few pounds still up his sleeve. Once again he hasn’t been done any favours by the draw but stall 21 isn’t the end of the world and I find it encouraging that William Buick has been booked for the ride for quite some time. Hughie Morrison’s Chil The Kite has a similar lightly-raced profile. After wins at Doncaster and Ascot, this Notnowcato colt ran well to finish less than 3L behind the well-regarded Thistle Bird, who runs this afternoon in the Rosemary Stakes. If she dominates there I can see Morrison’s colt coming in for plenty of support on Saturday. King’s Warrior might be a 5yo but he doesn’t have many miles on the clock and judged on his comfortable victory at York in July he may still have further improvement in him although he will need to as the handicapper walloped him with a 10lb rise for his rout on the Knavesmire. But like the main selection, Peter Chapple-Hyam put him away after that, so perhaps he believes that a mark of 101 was worth protecting? For those who fancy a punt at a big price Burano might just fit the bill. Currently around 33-1 this Dalakhani colt showed some reasonable form as a juvenile and out in Dubai over the winter when he beat Entifaadha in a listed race before having his limitations exposed in the Gr2 UAE Derby behind Daddy Long Legs. He made his belated reappearance at Newbury last weekend when he ran just the sort of race that you would expect for one being aimed at the Cambridgeshire a week later. Fallon wasn’t overly hard on the horse, no doubt with one eye on tomorrow’s race, but it will have blown away the cobwebs and he could be one that has slipped under the radar.

[Flat Racing ~ Saturday 22nd September]

Re: Flat Racing ~ Saturday 22nd September William Hill Ayr Gold Cup – Ayr Our Jonathan proved a welcome winner for the updates last year but at the time of writing he has a couple of big negatives to overcome. He currently sits at the head of the betting, although the well-fancied runners may flip-flop in the lead up to the race, but it still needs pointing out that 33 of the last 34 Ayr Gold Cup favourites have been beaten. So whilst the favourite, whoever it is, can be taken on it should still pay to favour the more fancied runners as 10 of the last 12 winners had been no worse that 9th in the betting. The other major negative concerning Our Jonathan is the fact that no horse has recorded back-to-back victories in the Ayr Gold Cup since Heronslea in 1930/31 although Funfair Wane did win the race in 2002 and 2004. A poor draw in a race such as this can often put paid to a horse’s chances before the stalls have even opened. History tells us that the 8 stalls closest to either rail tend to produce the most winners although trying to decide which rail is often a conundrum in itself. The bulk of the more fancied runners this year look to have a low to middle draw but historically high numbers seem to be best when it is riding good to soft or worse at Ayr so maybe we will get a less fancied winner this year? It is no secret that Dandy Nicholls has a remarkable record in the Ayr Gold Cup having won 6 of the last 12 renewals but he hasn’t appeared to be the force of old for a couple of seasons now and his duo of runners this year, Beacon Lodge and Rodrigo De Torres are both big prices. In more recent season’s Kevin Ryan has the best record having won the race in 2007 with Advance and last year with Our Jonathan. I have already explained why the latter may struggle to retain his crown but Pintura, Louis The Pious and Captain Ramius also represent the Yorkshire based Irishman. Another Irishman based in Yorkshire is Richard Fahey who won this race in 2006 with Fonthill Road. He is also represented by 4 runners tomorrow – Brae Hill, Alben Star, Johannes and Miss Work Of Art. The only other current trainer to have won this race and which has runners tomorrow is David Barron. His victory did come back in 1996 with the only favourite in modern times to have won this race, Coastal Bluff, but even so his trio of Pearl Ice, Colonel Mak and Waffle all warrant a closer look. As a rule of thumb it usually pays to oppose any runners trained in the south as in the last decade only Presto Shinko and Jimmy Styles have taken the honours and a similar pattern is revealed when looking back even further – not great reading if you are a fan of the current second favourite Sholaan. When it comes to the trend surrounding age, the positive results are rather inconclusive. There is very little to separate the 4, 5 and 6yos although if you had to, there would be a very marginal victory to the youngest of that trio. But when it comes to horses older than 6, I would be keen to oppose them as the last 7yo winner of this race was Hard To Figure way back in 1993 so as much as it loathes me to do it, my old favourite Borderlescott has to be overlooked along with Johannes, Regal Parade and Beacon Lodge. I would also be inclined to dismiss the chances of Miss Work Of Art and Sholaan as no 3yo has won the Ayr Gold Cup since Funfair Wane in 2002. Further back in time they did have a few winners in the 80s and 90s but that would really be scraping the barrel. The Stewards’ Cup is easily the best pointer to the Ayr Gold Cup as 7 of the last 15 winners had been beaten at Goodwood. Of course, Hawkeyethenoo won this year’s Goodwood showpiece but the race is also represented by Waffle (4th), Alben Star (5th), Shropshire (8th) and Borderlescott (9th). If horses which ran at Goodwood as the ones to follow then those horses which ran at Royal Ascot are almost certainly not. 8 of the last 12 Ayr Gold Cup winners had bypassed the Royal Meeting. Quite why that makes a difference I have no idea, but it cannot be ignored. The final trend surrounds last time out form but it isn’t particularly strong. Even so, the fact that 6 of the last 12 winners had been unplaced on their most recent start does warrant a mention. Shortlist Maarek Mirza Loius The Pious Colonel Mak Conclusion Trends can be a very handy tool to use, as evidenced last weekend, but they are not the be all and end all especially when it comes to such extreme ground as they are likely to have at Ayr. Even though one horse may be particularly strong from a trends perspective it would be completely pointless backing them if they are not confirmed mud-lovers. So top of my shortlist is MAAREK who rather than be inconvenienced by the ground will actually be better because of it. The fact that he would be carrying top-weight would normally put me off but Peter Nagle, who trains down the road from Ballydoyle, has took off 5lb by using claimer Mark Enright. The horse couldn’t be coming into the race in better form having won 4 times this season which included victory in the Gr3 Chipchase Stakes at Newcastle on bottomless ground and last time out in the Gr3 Renaissance Stakes at the Curragh when again there was some ease in the going. His draw in stall 13 wouldn’t be ideal in a normal renewal but with the ground as testing as it is, this race is anything but normal. I keep looking at Mirza and cannot for the life of me see why he is so big at 25-1 given that he was a 5f heavy ground listed winner at Cork in June and likely to improve for this step up in trip. He ran okay next time out when 6th in the Gr3 Sapphire Stakes at the Curragh when he had excuses but he had no obvious ones next time when he disappointed in the Gr3 Hackwood Stakes at Newbury. However, that was his 4th run in just over a month and it is more than possible that the edge had been taken off him. Rae Guest has sensibly given him a rest since then and so he arrives at Ayr a fresh horse. Stall 24 looks an added bonus if, as I believe, the near side provides the faster strip of ground and I fancy him to run a big race even if the bookies don’t. Louise The Pious comes into the race with an almost perfect race record having finished runner-up in the Stewards’ Cup consolation race at Goodwood and then 3rd in the Great St Wilfrid. He has a decent draw in stall 6, if that side proves to be the best, and at around the 20-1 mark strikes me as a respectable each-way bet. I wouldn’t say that he is a confirmed mud-lover but although he has only won on good to soft he has handled heavier conditions in the past without winning. I do like Colonel Mak and I think it is fair to say that this race has always been on his agenda after he won well on soft ground at Hamilton in July. He run a solid race to finish 4th behind Our Jonathan in this race last season and 12 months prior to that he won the Silver Cup so clearly likes the sea air up in Scotland. If the high numbers do provide the best side to be he is ideally positioned to take advantage in stall 22. I would be even more positive about his chances but although he handles soft ground I am not so sure about anything worse.

[Flat Racing ~ Saturday 15th Sept.]

Re: Flat Racing ~ Saturday 15th Sept. Ladbrokes St Leger - Doncaster, Saturday 15th September. There are some strong trends surrounding the St Leger so it will be very interesting to see how Camelot performs from a trends perspective as his bids to re-write the history books. Each of the last 12 St Leger winners had achieved a top 3 finish on their most recent start, so Camelot gets off to a good start although this is a pretty damning early statistic for Thomas Chippendale and the pacemaker Dartford. Camelot also scores well when it comes to the record of his trainer, Aidan O’Brien, who has won the St Leger 3 times courtesy of Milan, Brian Boru and Scorpion. It is 7 years since his last victory in the race but it would surely be harsh to hold that against him. But overall, the strongest recent record belongs to John Gosden who has won the St Leger 4 times thanks to Shantou in 1996 and more recently with Lucarno, Arctic Cosmos and Masked Marvel. Ignoring the pacemaker, the Clarehaven maestro has a strong representation tomorrow in the shape of Michelangelo and Thought Worthy. Camelot is currently a very short price for tomorrow’s race but that shouldn’t be a problem as favourites have won 8 of the last 15 renewals which isn’t a bad return for such a prestigious race as this. Previous Classic form is also important as 9 of the last 12 winners had run in a European Derby of some description. Of course, Camelot scorched to a memorable success at Epsom but for the record those that finished in his wake were Main Sequence (2nd) and Thought Worthy (4th). But not content with his win at Epsom, Camelot also won the Irish equivalent so he is a clear leader on this trend. The French Derby doesn’t feature this year. Other than the various Derbys, there are only two other key trials. York’s Great Voltigeur has supplied 6 of the last 11 winners with all 6 achieving a top 3 finish – 3 winners, 2 runners-up and 1 finishing 3rd. As often seems to be the case, York’s Gr2 is well represented tomorrow with 4 of the 6 runners due to face the starter on Town Moor. Thought Worthy and Main Sequence lock horns once again after only a neck separated them on the Knavesmire along with Encke who was 2L back in 3rd and Thomas Chippendale who was a further 2 1/2L back in 5th. The Gordon Stakes is the only other race worthy of a mention as 4 of the last 12 St Leger winners had run at Goodwood; with three bringing up the big race double and Arctic Cosmos improving on his 3rd place finish at Goodwood. This year’s race was won by Frankel’s full-brother Noble Mission who beat Encke by little more than a nostril with Michelangelo 2 1/2L back in 3rd. So the only flaw in Camelot’s armour could be his lack of stamina but then that comment would apply to most of the runners as only Guarantee, who won the Melrose, and Ursa Major, who won a St Leger Trial at the Curragh, have raced over this far. There is an element of guess work required but part of that can be removed by considering that 12 of the last 14 winners of this race were by a stallion with a Racing Post stamina index figure of 11f+. So being by Montjeu (11.7f), once again Camelot sails through with flying colours as do the majority of the other runners. However, the current second favourite Main Sequence is by the American Stallion Aldebaran who only has an index figure of 9.9f whilst Encke by Kingmambo (9.9f) and Thomas Chippendale by Dansili (9.2f) also fall some way short. It is a shame that there are no fillies lining up tomorrow as they have a pretty good record in the St Leger with the last 6 Oaks winners to run here all achieving a top 3 finish. Shortlist Camelot (Michelangelo) (Thought Worthy) Conclusion My natural instinct is to always take on the favourite but in the case of CAMELOT I just can’t bring myself to do it. Whilst it is unfair on him to put him in the same category as Frankel, there can be no getting away from the fact that he is a very classy colt. Looking back, it was a weak Guineas that he won but you cannot knock his performance over a trip that was inadequate and on testing ground. He scared a lot of rivals off in the Derby and it was easy to see why as he won pretty much as he liked under a brilliant Joseph O’Brien ride. He was less impressive on the eye in the Irish Derby but given the bog-like conditions at the Curragh his class still shone through. He has had plenty of time to be freshened up after that race but it still leaves a small doubt in my head. You only have to look back at recent St Legers to see horses who lost the race off the back of a hard race last time – Kite Wood, Rewilding and Sea Moon are just 3 that spring to mind. So, on that basis I won’t be backing him at 1-3 or whatever he is sent off although come 3:40 I will be cheering for him for every step of the 1m6f132y. After Michelangelo finished a narrowly beaten 3rd on his debut in the listed Newmarket Stakes I immediately had him down as a St Leger contender. Victories in the listed Cocked Hat Stakes and then in a valuable sales race at Newmarket didn’t alter that view and neither did his defeat in the Gr3 Gordon Stakes– one of the key trials. In fact I was more buoyed by the fact that he was beaten as I like to think that Gosden had left a little bit to work on for the main event in September. Agreed, he doesn’t have a massive turn of foot but he is a resolute galloper and with the aid of a pacemaker I am hoping that the race pans out perfectly for him. William Buick prefers Thought Worthy which is understandable given his Great Voltigeur success but Gosden couldn’t have booked a better replacement in Frankie Dettori who has won the St Leger 3 times in the last 7 years and 5 times overall. Camelot may well have too much class for Michelangelo on the day but I don’t think he will be far behind and he looks a solid each-way selection. Thought Worthy is right up there from a trends perspective and could be very dangerous to under-estimate with Gosden and Buick winning the last 2 renewals. This Dynaformer colt made his way onto my Fifty for the Flat shortlist after his sole start at Newcastle as a juvenile and I cannot say that he has let us down. A full-brother to Gosden’s 2007 winner Lucarno, he should have little difficulty with the extra 2f and he will be suited if the ground stays on the faster side of good. He won’t be far away as long as his battle with Main Sequence at York hasn’t left any lasting effects.

[Flat Racing ~ Saturday 15th Sept.]

Re: Flat Racing ~ Saturday 15th Sept. Ladbrokes Portland (Handicap) – Doncaster, Saturday 15th September During the 1990s 3 & 4yo’s had a decent record in the Portland but in more recent season’s horses from that age group have been having a tough time of it – the 4yo Out After Dark providing their only winner in the last decade. That leaves a bit of a question mark hanging over the likes of Rex Imperator, Hallelujah, Face The problem, Move In Time, Steps, New Planet, Picabo, Barnet Fair and Prodigality. It is the 5yos have that have been dominant of late; winning each of the last 5 renewals. Only 5 are set to face the starter tomorrow – Doc Hay, Singeur, Mass Rally, Kingsgate Choice and Fratellino. 10 of the last 12 winners were officially rated 93 or higher so Picabo, Fratellino, Barnet Fair and Prodigality all get an early bath. Taking it one stage further 7 of the last 8 winners were officially rated 95 or higher so the chances of Mass Rally, Ancient Cross, Edge Closer, New Planet, Kaldoun Kingdom and Kingsgate Choice must be viewed with a degree of caution. Last time out form is quite important in the Portland as those that achieved a top 4 finish last time have won 8 of the last 12 renewals. Of those still in contention Hallelujah, Face The Problem, Doc Hay and Steps all qualify. For the record, the others are Mass Rally, Edge Closer, Kingsgate Choice, Picabo and Prodigality. The draw in any big field sprint such as this is always important. Historically, it has been those coming from a double figure draw; 7 of the last 12 to be precise. However, rather than blindly rely on the trends, the ground should always be taken into consideration and the best guide is to always watch the previous day’s action to get the best guide to which side of the track is riding faster. Given the competitive nature of races such as the Portland there is always going to be the occasional shock. However, aside from those the Portland has been a decent race for those towards the head of the betting as 8 of the last 12 winners had been no worse than 6th on the bookies boards. The prices are sure to change in the build up to the race but at it stands Prodigality heads them all closely followed by Hallelujah, Picabo, Rex Imperator, Face the Problem and Mass Rally. The best ‘trials’ to focus on are the Great St Wilfrid Handicap and Goodwood’s Stewards’ Cup. 4 of the last 8 winners had finished down the field at Ripon and Tax Free (2nd), Singeur (6th), Barnet Fair (7th) and Secret Witness (14th) all represent that race this year. The Stewards’ Cup has supplied 5 recent winners so Bajan Tryst (10th) earns a tick in the right box. Finally, when it comes to trainers’ form Kevin Ryan, David Marnane, Gerard Butler, Clive Cox and John Quinn have records marginally better than the rest. Shortlist Doc Hay Mass Rally [ Hallelujah ] (Kaldoun Kingdom) Conclusion DOC HAY had a decent season last year when winning 4 times over the minimum trip with arguably his best performance coming on his final start when not beaten far by 2 classy types in Sirius Prospect and Mayson. He is yet to get off the mark this season but he has run some solid races in defeat. He was given a break after finishing 7th at Nottingham in June and one would assume that his first run back at Haydock, where he finished 4th – beaten less than 2L, was to get him spot on for this race. Although he is yet to win beyond 5f he does just about get 6f so this unique trip may prove just about ideal for him. He has a decent draw close to the near rail and if all things fall right he could reward each-way support. Mass Rally has been very consistent this season without getting his head in front, in fact he is quite a difficult horse to win with. But his last couple of efforts have suggested that he does have a race in him. His high cruising speed should carry him to the front in what can often be a tough race. The only question is can he stay there. The least exposed in the line up is Hallelujah who has only seen the racetrack 5 times despite being a 4yo. However, he has won 3 of those 5 starts and therefore it is possible that he is still open to improvement. He was only beaten 1L in the Gr3 Summer Stakes at York on his most recent start and if he can build on that performance he should go close. The final one for the shortlist is Kaldoun Kingdom who only lost out in a blanket finish at York last time. He is on a losing run dating back to March 2010 but he has dropped down the handicap and it is worth noting that 4 of his 5 wins have come during September or October. Stall 20 isn’t a bad draw if he can make the most if it and this course and distance winner does look like each-way material at around 16-1.

[R.I.P - Lord Oaksey]

taken from the sporting life [h=2]Lord Oaksey, the former jockey, journalist, broadcaster and founder of the Injured Jockeys Fund, has died, aged 83.[/h] Oaksey passed away on Wednesday morning at his family home in Wiltshire following a lengthy period of ill health. Lisa Hancock, chief executive of the IJF, said: "Lord Oaksey passed away at home this morning with his family." Hancock paid tribute to the groundbreaking contribution Oaksey made in establishing the forerunner of the IJF in 1964. Following the career-ending falls of Tim Brookshaw and Paddy Farrell in the Grand National that year, Oaksey was a key mover in establishing the Brookshaw-Farrell fund to help the injured riders. That fund eventually became the IJF and the charity has helped over 1,000 riders since those early days. Hancock said: "It is a sad day for us all here. The IJF is probably his greatest legacy and I know that's what Lady Oaksey always said. "He was very proud of his involvement. He was only at Oaksey House with us for a Diamond Jubilee celebration in June and he was on good form that day. "Unfortunately, he declined over the last three months and he was with Chicky, his wife, and his family when he passed away. He started it all at the IJF and obviously he is a great loss for us and the sport. "He was a fantastic man and we all feel very proud to be part of what he started and to be continuing his work in the future." Born John Lawrence on March 21, 1929, he was the son of Geoffrey Lawrence, the 1st Baron Oaksey, who officiated at the Nuremberg trials after the Second World War. Educated at Eton and Yale, Lord Oaksey was an enthusiastic amateur rider and enjoyed considerable success, winning the 1958 Hennessy Gold Cup on Taxidermist and finishing second in the Grand National on Carrickbeg in 1963. The residential home of Oaksey House in Lambourn was built in his honour for the recuperation of injured jockeys and a statue of him adorns the grounds. He was a renowned writer for The Daily Telegraph and was a member of ITV Seven from 1969 and, later, Channel 4's racing team. He retired from broadcasting in 1999. Even in his retirement, Lord Oaksey continued to make an impact in the shape of the steeplechaser Carruthers, whom he bred and named after a story he used to tell in his role as an after-dinner speaker. Trained by his son-in-law, Mark Bradstock, Carruthers claimed the 2011 Hennessy Gold Cup at Newbury, bridging a gap of 53 years after he won it as a rider. a sad loss to racing and a very respected man in racing, R.I.P. - thoughts go out to his family and friends

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[Flat Racing Saturday 25th August]

Re: Flat Racing Saturday 25th August Betfred Ebor (Handicap) – York, Saturday 25th August In more recent seasons it has been five-year-olds which have had the strongest record, winning the Betfred Ebor in six of the last ten seasons in addition to their fair share of placed efforts. Their record looks all the better when you consider that four-year-olds have been responsible for virtually twice the amount of runners but have only won the race twice, although they have also had their fair share of finishers in the frame. Even so, their record still leaves a bit to be desired. Last year’s surprise winner Moyenne Corniche became just the second horse aged over five to win the Ebor since the legendary Sea Pigeon in 1979. With that statistic in mind, it is likely to be a while before another six-year-old or over wins, so the quartet in today’s field can be opposed. Usually in races such as this, being drawn on the rail is an advantage but that hasn’t proved the case in the Betfred Ebor. Runners drawn low have been at an overwhelming disadvantage in recent years with only one of the last eleven winners (excluding the 2008 renewal run at Newbury) scoring from a single figure berth. With victory in the Ebor being held in such high esteem, those jockeys drawn low have shown a tendency to break far too quickly from the stalls in order to take advantage of their draw, but only end up setting a furious early pace in order to maintain their position. These early exertions clearly take their toll and play right into the hands of those drawn wide; those right on the outside have a superb recent record with seven of the last eleven winners having been drawn no lower than 16. The weights in the Ebor are fairly well compressed these days, making this trend fairly a minor one, but it must be noted that only three of the last 24 winners successfully shouldered more than 9st1lbs. In such a competitive handicap where stamina is at an absolute premium, every pound matters, and although this statistic only affects a handful of today’s runners, their chances must be taken with a pinch of salt. Last year’s 25/1 winner Moyenne Corniche went against a couple of well-established trends, notably becoming only the second horse in 17 years to win the Ebor having not achieved a top two finish on either of their last two starts. He, along with the 2001 victor Mediterranean, are also the only winners in recent times not to have won a race of any nature during the current season. Five of the last ten winners had achieved a top four finish last time out and it is those contenders that we should be focusing our attentions on. Whichever way you look at it, favourites do not fare well in the Betfred Ebor – there have only been two winning favourites since 1998, and there have been five winners in the last decade priced no shorter than 20/1. Therefore the best advice, other than to oppose the favourite, is to back your selection regardless of the starting price. CONCLUSION Only two of the twenty strong field score well on the three positive trends and do not fall down on any negatives, these being Icon Dream and the French-trained HAMMERFEST. The selection is the latter, who has been a model of consistency this term, including when he was second in a competitive 12f handicap at Royal Ascot. He stays further than this and has an excellent chance of adding to his trainer’s fine record in this country. Icon Dream’s only start this season was when he was third in the Northumberland Plate, so he can be forgiven the fact that he has failed to finish in the first two on either of his last two starts. A strongly run 14f should be right up his street and he looks a tremendous each-way bet. Others to consider include Sense of Purpose, who represents the Dermot Weld stable which has won with their other two runners the festival so far. She has shown good form in Group 3 and Listed company and hinted at a return to form on her most recent start. Willing Foe is the final horse on the shortlist and represents the powerful Godolphin stable. He ended last year’s campaign with a terrific effort in defeat behind Zuider Zee in the November Handicap, before making an encouraging reappearance at Ascot in July. He is lightly raced and remains open to improvement, making him an intriguing prospect.

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[Flat Racing ~ Friday August 24th]

Re: Flat Racing ~ Friday August 24th 3.40 Coolmore Nunthorpe Stakes (Group 1) Since the start of the 1980s only four Nunthorpe winners (and only three individual horses) were aged six or above, suggesting that we should view their chances with a degree of scepticism. Three of those four wins have come in the last eight renewals, but two came courtesy of the late maturing Borderlescott. In general, the older generation tend to struggle against their younger rivals and we should probably ignore them for win purposes. This trend splits the field in half with no fewer than ten runners failing this statistic, including the highly rated Australian mare Ortensia It is disappointing that both two-year-old entrants have been balloted out of this year’s renewal as the juveniles, who receive a huge weight allowance, are always worthy of respect. Royal Ascot’s King’s Stand Stakes remains the best pointer having supplied four of the last ten winners. With the race upgraded to a Group 1 in 2008, there is an even stronger likelihood that this will continue to be the case. Run over 5f, it is a very similar race to the Nunthorpe as opposed to Newmarket’s July Cup which is run over an extra furlong. Even so, three winners have come from the Newmarket showpiece and interestingly two of them achieved the sprint double. Seven of today’s field contested the Royal meeting’s speed showcase, with Bated Breath (2nd), Sole Power (3rd) and Spirit Quartz (5th) faring the best. When it comes to official ratings it would seem sensible to discount all those horses rated less than 110 as only Borderlescott (2008 and 2009) and 2010’s 100/1 screamer Sole Power have managed to win this race when rated below that benchmark. This trend alone helps to narrow the field down significantly, with nine runners falling foul of it. The sprinting division is generally extremely open so it is no real surprise that only half of the last ten winners finished in the top three on their most recent outing. However, none of the last ten finished any worse than sixth last time out and all bar two of them had finished first or second in one of their last two starts, confirming the fact that it is very hard for an out of form runner to bounce back to his or her best in this top-class company. We can easily discount the half-dozen contenders who finished out of the top six on their most recent start. Solid previous efforts at a high level are also a positive; of the last ten winners only La Cucaracha, Kingsgate Native and Sole Power scored here having failed to finish at least placed in a previous Group 1 or 2 event. No strong trends here with no trainer other than Aidan O’Brien, who is not represented today, having trained more than one horse to win the Nunthorpe in recent years. The last two renewals became a bookies benefit with Sole Power (100/1) and Margot Did (20/1) doing the business; therefore joining just three other horses that have won the Nunthorpe since the war when returned at 16/1 or bigger. However, in the context of what has happened in the past it would still seem prudent to favour those towards the forefront of the betting. In the last decade alone, six winners had been no worse that fourth in the betting although as a word of caution, it is nine years now since the last winning favourite. Fillies have won five of the last nineteen renewals which, on first glance, doesn’t look anything out of the ordinary. But, when you consider that very few fillies line up in the Nunthorpe, it starts to look a lot more interesting. Margot Did scored for the girls last year and there are four in this year’s field who are aiming to enhance their impressive record. CONCLUSION A typically wide open renewal of this historical contest; twenty go to post but from a trends perspective there does appear to be a fair amount of dead wood. BATED BREATH has been kept fresh since his fine second in the King’s Stand at Royal Ascot and with that race being such a good pointer, it’s difficult to see him out of the frame. Just behind the selection that day at Ascot was Sole Power and the consistent 2010 winner looks sure to make a bold bid to regain his crown. Fillies have a superb record and Ortensia comes out very strongly on the positive trends, but the fact she is a seven-year-old tempers enthusiasm a touch. Spirit Quartz and the promising young Angels Will Fall appear the pick of the outsiders. POSITIVES Fillies – Beyond Desire, Invincible Ash, Ortensia, Angels Will Fall Finished in the top two either of last two starts – 12 runners Ran well in King’s Stand Stakes – Bated Breath (2nd), Secret Witness (3rd), Spirit Quartz (5th) Previous good form in Group 1 or 2 company – 10 runners NEGATIVES Aged six or older – 10 runners including Hamish McGonagall and Ortensia Rated less than 110 – 9 runners including Pearl Secret and Angels Will Fall~ Failed to finish in the first six last time out – Dandy Boy, Hamish McGonagall, Kingsgate Native, Secret Witness, Tangerine Trees, Beyond Desire

[Flat Racing ~ Saturday 18th August]

Re: Flat Racing ~ Saturday 18th August 3:30 Ripon – William Hill Great St Wilfrid Stakes At first glance the Great St Wilfrid may look a tough race to get to the bottom off but by following a few simple trends it can usually be narrowed down to a much more manageable shortlist. The first thing to consider is the draw as 10 of the last 11 winners came from a double figure draw suggesting that the likes of Alben Star, Barnet Fair and Bertiewhittle have plenty to prove. It is also important to choose a horse that races up with the pace as 10 of the last 11 winners either made all or raced prominently. So it is vital that any selection for this year’s race isn’t a hold-up performer. As 10 of the last 132 winners had already won at least once earlier in the season it would seem sensible to be wary of those without a win under their belts this term. Those from towards the head of the betting which fall into this bracket are Bertiewhittle, Louise The Pious and Captain Ramius. As 3 of the last 6 winners had previously run in the Stewards’ Cup it would seem sensible to look at the Goodwood form. For the record, the placed runners from the Stewards’ Cup were as follows – Alben Star (5th), Es Que Love (7th), Lexi’ Hero (13th), Grissom (14th), Seal Rock (19th) and Elusive Price (23rd). As Dandy Nicholls has won 2 of the last 7 renewals of the Great St Wilfrid, Tax Free must warrant particular attention although in all fairness he doesn’t look to be the horse he once was. No other trainer has an especially strong record although Henry Candy (Seal Rock) and David O’Meara (Pepper Lane) have both won this race in recent seasons. Whilst it is not a trend to focus on primarily it is worth noting that 5 of the last 9 winners were officially rated between 96 & 100 and last year’s winner was only 1lb lower than that bracket on 95. It is certainly interesting reading and does leave a question mark hanging over those at the top and bottom of the weights. Finally, it should pay to oppose the favourite as there have only been 2 winning favourites in the last 12 years. In open contests such as this the runners usually flip-flop in the lead up to the race but at the time of writing Alben Star heads Barnet Fair by a point. Shortlist Colonel Mak Singeur Seal Rock Johannes Conclusion As long as the ground at Ripon remains good, Colonel Mak could prove some value at around the 16-1 mark. David Baron’s gelding has ticks in all of the right boxes, as long as they adopt his usual prominent style of racing. Form-wise, he has looked as good as ever this season winning twice and running a solid race when giving plenty of weight away at York last time. Robin Bastiman will forever be associated with Borderlescott but he has another good horse in his charge in the shape of Singeur. He wasn’t at his best on soft ground for his belated reappearance at Pontefract but bounced back with a good performance when winning here 11 days ago. It is interesting that he is yet to win over further than the minimum trip as he has looked the sort that would appreciate the extra furlong. He is only up 4lb for his recent victory so perhaps tomorrow is the day to put the record straight. Seal Rock looked a very bright prospect after winning his first 3 starts but he didn’t progress quite as well as expected. Having said that, he wouldn’t be a bad horse to own as he nearly always gives you a run for your money. He is pretty versatile ground wise and would appear to be at his best over tomorrow’s trip so if her gets the splits when needed he could be one to go well at a big-price of 25-1. Johannes put up a good performance when winning at Glorious Goodwood after dropping back down to a winnable mark. He is back up to 96 tomorrow so will find this tougher but there is no doubting this 9yos resolution and if he can pick up where he left off at Goodwood he could give punters a run for the money.

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[Flat Racing ~ Saturday Aug 4th ~ Goodwood Day 5]

Re: Flat Racing ~ Saturday Aug 4th ~ Goodwood Day 5 2.05 Get Your Bet on at Bluesq.com Stewards’ Sprint Stakes The market leader has not won this race since 2003 and it has paid to look further afield than the market leader with the last four winners returning at double figure odds. With the competitive looking nature of this race in mind, I think it would be foolish to get too carried away with the most fancied runners. The horse I am drawn towards is the French raider MOSCOW EIGHT. He has shown solid form in his native country over various trips, but seems to be most effective over today’s trip of 6f. It would be hard to evaluate whether he is well treated off a mark of 86 although connections must be fairly confident by sending her over. The very capable apprentice Harry Bentley takes a valuable 3lb out of the plate and the pair have a good draw in stall nine. He is set to start the race a 20/1 chance, which for me represents good each-way value in a race of this nature. The top weight Louis the Pious is another runner who seemingly holds a fighting chance at a big price. His last two runs have come on very unsuitable soft and heavy ground but enters calculations now back on a faster surface which he thrives on. He has posted solid efforts off a mark of 94, so the drop down to 92 can only help. All of his wins have come over today’s trip and under the stewardship of Graham Lee he can make the frame. Oneladyowner is somewhat of a course and distance specialist having finished in the first three home on each of his three runs at the course, winning once. Two starts ago he was beaten here by just a nose off 86, with just a 1lb rise in the weights he is handicapped to go close once more. Connections have booked William Buick for the ride and he is another lively contender. Nasri also makes the shortlist having dropped down to a handy mark. He was 4th in the Stewards’ Cup last year rated 97 and races off 88 here today. He hadn’t shown much form so far this term but put in a solid effort last time out at York, giving me the impression connections have stoked him up steadily with this race in mind. 2.40 Toyo Tires Performance Stakes (Handicap) Many of the line-up have plenty to prove but I think it is worth giving Roger Varian’s SHUBAAT another chance now back down to the trip he won over three starts ago. He can be fully excused for running down the field in the Chester Cup on soft ground, before not getting home over 2m most recently. He has had just seven starts to date and I don’t believe we have seen the best of this horse, and back over 1m6f could prove to be a dangerous opponent. Franciscan also merits respect for Luca Cumani who has won the race three times since 2004. He also can be forgiven his latest poor effort on soft ground in the Old Newton Cup. Before this he won over 1m4f at York, giving the impression he would be worth a try over this longer trip. If he is back to form and stays the distance then he will be in the mix. Roxy Flyer may also enter calculations for the Amanda Perrett team. She is a very consistent sort, which cannot be said about many of these and presuming the ground stays good this previous course winner holds each-way claims. 3.15 Markel Insurance Nassau Stakes (Group 1) Five of the last ten winners of the Nassau Stakes have gone the way off the 3yos, who receive a hefty 8lbs from their older rivals. There are only two 3yos in the field today, but it is the Oaks winner WAS who could be the one to beat. She has had just four starts in her career so far, with her Epsom win her best form to date. Her next and most recent start came in the Irish equivalent, finishing 5th, but that run was better than the bare form suggests. The soft ground along with being hampered by Shirocco Star clearly hindered her from finishing closer than 5¼ lengths behind the winner. I think this drop to 1m2f will bring out the best of the beautifully bred daughter of Galileo. Her trainer Aiden O’Brien won this race in 2007 and 2008 with Peeping Fawn and Favourable Terms, so he knows what it takes to win the race. The forecast good ground is another big plus point for me along with her age allowance and this is the filly they all have to beat. Nahrain is the highest rated horse in the race and if she is back to form can push the selection all the way. She made her reappearance over 1m but now back to 1m2f, the trip she won the Group 1 Prix De L’Opera over in France, a big run looks to be on the cards. Roger Varian’s have been running well at the meeting without winning and it would be no great surprise to see her right there in the closing stages. She finished runner-up at the Breeders Cup last season, which sets the benchmark in this field. Obviously we cannot be sure if she will rekindle this form which is why Was get the nod in terms of the first choice selection. Izzi Top currently heads the betting at 2/1, which is fair enough given she has won four consecutive Group races and a reproduction of this form would see here make the frame. I am not too sure her best form is as strong as the above selections and she may have just had one race too many, which could give the edge to her more lightly campaigned rivals. She is no doubt an excellent filly, with a victory here a distinct possibility, however I believe the other two have more improvement in them and represent better value. 3.45 Blue Square Stewards’ Cup The progressive 4yo Hoof It restored parity last season meaning 9 out of the last 10 renewals have been won by a 4yo or 5yo. Last year’s victor pulled one back for the 4yos who just trail 5-4 to the 5yos. This is such a strong trend we can discount 15 of the 28 runners with a fare amount of confidence. Given the competitive nature of the race you are always going to get the odd shock. The Stewards’ Cup has had its fair share – Guineas Hunter at 33/1 and Conquest at 40/1 – but overall it has still paid to concentrate on those at the head of the betting as 8 of the last 11 winners have come from the first five in the market. Hoof It strengthened this trend returning the 13/2 joint favourite, so it could well pay to focus on the market principals, but don’t be put off backing a less fancied runner. The five that head the market this time around are Dungannon, Victoire De Lyphar, Mac’s Power, Hawkeyethenoo and Jamesie, whom are available at around 10/1 at the time of writing. As with the totesport Mile on Friday those running from the top or the bottom of the handicap don’t fair that well, although winning off 10st last year, Hoof It bucked the trend. To be precise, horses officially rated between 95 and 102 have won 8 of the last 12 renewals. There is perfectly good reason behind that. Horses towards the top of the weights are often fully exposed and therefore find it tough to improve again in such a competitive contest whilst those towards the bottom of the weights usually aren’t quite up to this level. If you rely on the ‘magic’ 95 to 102 rated horses you must consider every runner from Oasis Dancer down to Jamesie; not forgetting the 3yo Bayleyf who is actually rated 96 but receives a 5lb age allowance. Following on a similar theme, it might be worth siding with a runner that achieved a top three finish on their most recent start just like 9 of the last 15 winners. It clearly isn’t the be all and end all but it is something to bear in mind. The race in which they run might also sway your judgement as 12 of the last 16 winners had run in the Wokingham Stakes at the Royal Meeting. To save the trouble of looking up the result, the Wokingham runners worth noting in this year’s contest are Waffle (2nd), Hawkeyethenoo (3rd), Dungannon (5th), Palace Moon (8th), Alben Star (9th), Mac’s Power (13th) and Seal Rock (15th). Finally, but certainly not least is the draw. I remember in years gone by a huge amount of debate whether the stands rail of the far rail was the place to be. If my memory serves it was the far rail that usually won but times seem to be shifting as all of the last 7 winners came from a pretty central draw. Because of the design of the course there are very few races in which the runners come down the centre of the course and it may well be that after 4 days of racing this provides the freshest strip of ground? Taking all the above in to consideration, along with my own personal thoughts, DUNGANNON, gets the slight nod for the Andrew Balding team. He posted a good effort in the Wokingham off today’s mark of 97 and is by no means handicapped out things. He also ran a solid race in defeat most recently, when beaten by 1¼ lengths, in a race in which he was first home in his group. He is clearly thriving at present, which is shown by his position in the market. He is a general 10/1 chance like many of the runners, but is as short as 9/1 in some place. At five he also represents the most successful age group within the last 10 years, however drawn 24 may not be ideal, but Hoof It was drawn 18 which does offer the selection some hope. Alben Star is another strong trends horse in the line-up. As a 4yo he ticks that box, along with being rated 97 and winning his most recent start. He also features prominently in the betting and is Co second favourite with many firms. Drawn in 22 may or not be ideal, depending on where the pace in the race lies, but he still seemingly holds every chance. He was also 9th in this year’s Wokingham which is also another positive. The slight negative maybe the fact he has shown to be most effective with cut in the ground, but with forecast rain around, conditions could turn out to be ideal. Oasis Dancer is one of the more likely outsiders in the field, fitting almost all of the trends. He represents one of the golden age generations, most notably the 5yos, who just edge out the 4yo by one victory over the last ten years. He also sits in the ideal rating band competing off 102, a mark he won off in 2010. Coming out of stall 12 he also appears to have fared well in terms of the draw, that is if my theory of being drawn central is a wise one. The slight negative is he doesn’t come here on the back of a solid run; however this can be excused due to the soft ground. The race before this he finished along way back in the Wokingham, which has previously been dubbed at the most reliable race to throw up the winner, so he will need to bounce back to form to feature. The final spot on the roster goes to Jemesie, who fits the age (4yo), rating (95) and market position (Co2f) trends. He also represents David Marnane, the trainer of the Wokingham winner Dandy Boy, so although he didn’t run in the Ascot handicap he qualifies by default on this basis. He latest run may have been poor but it can be fully excused due to the ground, so if the ground remains good, he enters calculations. 4.30 Nat West Ahead for Business EBF Maiden Stakes Mark Johnston is yet again enjoying a fantastic Glorious Goodwood with multiple winners and has another strong chance here with Steeler. This son of the first-season sire Raven’s Pass made a bright racecourse debut, going down by a head to a more experienced rival from the Tom Dascombe yard. He is likely to improve with that experience under his belt for a trainer who won this contest in 2008 with Jukebox Jury. The big concern would be drawn out wide, which has so far this week proven to be a disadvantage over 7f. Country Western is another runner I expect to be in the mix from a plum draw in stall four. He posted a solid effort on debut, beaten by only ¾ lengths in 3rd. With improvement on the cards for powerful connections, a bold bid is expected. The horse which arguably the holds the best form, thus the one to beat is IMPROVISATION. This son of Teofilo made a very impressive racecourse debut in a warm Newmarket maiden. That particular race was won by John Gosden’s Ghurair who ran so well in the Vintage Stakes behind Olympic Glory earlier this week. Mahmood Al Zarooni’s colt was only beaten by 1½ lengths, and in arguably a less competitive event, with racecourse experience under his belt, he will take a lot of beating. 5.05 Bet on Your Mobile at Bluesq.com Nursery (Handicap) DOMINATE can build on a solid effort in a much more competitive affair in which he finished 6th earlier this week. Four of the horses in front of him were rated 103, 102, 98 and 95, which is a far high standard than this race. The handicapper has given him a mark of 82 which I believe underestimates this horse’s powers. He won his maiden at Sandown in superb style and I think the step up to 6f will suit given the way he forged clear to win. The Hannon/Hughes combination has to be feared in 2yo races at Glorious Goodwood and they look to hold the aces here. Dutch Masterpiece won on debut for Gary Moore, a trainer who isn’t well known for his winning debutants. Although his win only came in a Southwell maiden, he did lead from start to finish in a dominant fashion and he has more scope for improvement than many of these in this field. Ryan Moore takes over from George Baker for his father and he ought to be fighting out the finish. Jamesbo’s Girl was claimed by Richard Fahey after winning a 6f Thirsk seller by 7 lengths before winning a Catterick claimer over 6f by the same winning margin. This certainly represents a step up in class but she does at least arrive here in fine fettle and can reward connections by making the frame. 5.40 Qipco Future Stars Apprentice Stakes (Handicap) Landaman will be a popular choice for many punters up and down the country for the final race of the festival. He won so well earlier this week and a reproduction of that performance will make him tough to beat. Michael Murphy takes over from Darren Egan, which helps offset another 2lbs with the former riding claiming 7lb. The horse is due to go up a further 3lb in the future so is technically well in, however the slight concern would be how he turns out after racing just four days previous. Stepping up to 1m1f for the first time, the Lucy Wadham-trained Tuscania can make the frame. This filly has struggled since winning on debut; however a return to form most recently bodes well. This represents one of her easiest assignments to date and holds strong each-way claims. BORUG who was once rated 93 lurks menacingly now rated just 80. William Twiston-Davies takes a valuable 5lb off, for which is worth every 1lb. He ran on well over 1m most recently at Newmarket, which suggests to me he will be right at home over this 1m1f trip. The better ground could also play to his strengths and with the extra freshness he holds over Landaman, makes him narrowly the one to beat.

[Flat Racing ~ Friday August 3rd ~ Goodwood Day 4]

Re: Flat Racing ~ Friday August 3rd ~ Goodwood Day 4 2.00 Coutts Glorious Stakes (Group 3) The progressive Gatewood steps up into Group company for the first time, following a trio of handicap wins at York, Epsom and Ascot. He started the season off a mark of 86, but after his three wins he is now rated 104 and deservedly merits a step up in class. In all three of his wins he has earned the comment ‘stayed on well at the finish’, so the extra two furlongs he tackles today should reveal some further improvement. He seems most at home on good ground, so conditions should be ideal; however in saying that, he won his most recent start on soft, showcasing his versatility. He hails from a yard that has dominated proceedings so far this year, so should be in the mix. DANDINO may have disappointed last time out, but that run can easily be excused due to the soft ground. He is definitely a top of the ground horse and on the assumption that conditions remain the same, he will be right at home. He hasn’t been at his best so far this term but he did give Sea Moon a fright on that horse’s reappearance at Goodwood, proving his ability on this track. On his only other previous visit to the course he was narrowly denied by a head in the 2010 Gordon Stakes, which for me is a huge positive. Johnny Murtagh takes the ride for the first time which is another plus point for me, especially with just seven runners set to line up; he has proven his tactical nous time and time again. Some of the runners have lots to prove, whereas this horse has already displayed his abilities at this level, making him the one to beat. 2.35 RSA Thoroughbred Stakes (Group 3) ALJAMAAHEER is a horse on an upward curve who can continue to improve over a mile. He made his debut over 6f and has since been kept to 7f for his last three starts. He came to the forefront of many people’s attention when beating the well-regarded The Nile before taking his form to a new level when third in the Jersey Stakes. He is by Dubawi, so ought to get a mile standing on his head, which for me makes him the most intriguing runner in the field. Roger Varian is one of the brightest young talents within the training ranks, and has already proven his abilities to get his horses ready for the big occasion; I am expecting a big run from this horse. Stipulate, for Sir Henry Cecil, could provide a solid alternative, having already had several of these rivals behind him earlier this season. He has been a model of consistency over a variety of trips, on differing ground, with his only poor performance coming in the Classic Trial at Sandown on heavy ground, which can easily be excused. He may not have huge improvement in him but the horse has shown to be very genuine and should give his all once more. The least exposed horse in the line-up is Tales Of Grimm, who has had just three starts. He wasn’t seen until August as a 2 year old, but made a winning debut before being put away for the season. He made a respectable reappearance this campaign when third in a Listed contest, in which Stipulate was second, before seemingly failing to stay over 1m2f in the Group 3 Tercentenary Stakes at Royal Ascot. Sir Michael Stoute drops the horse back down to a mile here, which should suit him much better. 3.10 Betred Mile (Handicap) The Totesport Mile is usually quite a rough race, but even so it was one of those where the trends held strong and it was reasonably straightforward to get right. In fact, if my memory serves correctly, in 2008 my shortlist of four provided the first four home. However, it does have to be pointed out that there has been a little wobble over the past couple of seasons – so make sure to tread carefully. The most decisive factor in years gone by was that of the draw. In simple terms, if you weren’t drawn high you couldn’t win, as backed up by the fact that before last year nine of the last 11 winners were drawn in stall 16 or higher. Laa Rayb overturned that damning stat when winning in 2009 but on the whole it has always paid to follow the high numbers. However, with the way that stalls’ numbering changed two years ago, those drawn on the far rail are now the lowest numbers so make sure you are not fooled. This came to fruition last year when the first three home were drawn 1, 6 and 3 respectively. Another pretty reliable trend concerns the winners’ ages; 4yos and 5yos have won nine of the last 12 renewals. There was always the odd 6yo thrown in for good measure but as a whole it always paid to concentrate on the age group mentioned. However, to throw a spanner in the works a 3yo has nowwon 2 of the last 4 renewals so perhaps their age allowance is starting to come into play. So, based on the available evidence we should be able to take on the older horses with a fair degree of confidence. The effect of the draw means the bookies know exactly how to price this race up and so it has generally always paid to follow those at the head of the betting; 10 of the last 12 winners have come from the first five in the betting. At the time of writing the top five in the betting are very closely matched; various bookmakers are pricing each runner differently. There is no clear favourite; however it is Excellent Guest and Fulbright who are marginally ahead in the proceedings. Captain Bertie, Field of Dream and Prince Of Johanne make up the five. But it isn’t just the draw that influences the bookies; they also look to recent form, so it will come as no surprise to learn that 10 of the last 12 winners came into the race on the back of a solid effort last time. So there is little point looking for a horse that has been running below par but dropped to a handy mark as historically this isn’t the race for them. Out of the top five in the betting Fulbright, Field Of Dream and Captain Bertie fit the bill, however I am happy to forgive Excellent Guest’s final outing in which he had no run, as he only just failed to land the Royal Hunt Cup in his previous outing. There are a couple of other things to consider; eight of the last 12 winners were officially rated between 95 and 105, implying that those at the very top and bottom of the weights tend to struggle. This may not be the strongest trend to look at this year as it only eliminates six of today’s line-up. On the trainer front, Mark Johnston leads the way having won the race three times in the last 11 years; he saddles Bannock and Fulbright this time around. Next best is Roger Charlton, who also has a strong record having won this race twice in the last four years, but he doesn’t have a runner this time around. Last year’s winning trainer Marcus Tregoning saddles last year’s victor Boom And Boost once again, but a high draw has made life very tough for a repeat success. Richard Fahey is the only other winning trainer over the last ten years to have a runner and he is represented by the lively outsider Sir Reginald. Applying these recommendations to the field it is the Mark Johnston-trained FULBRIGHT who comes out on top. He has been given a plum draw in eight as well as featuring prominently in the betting. He comes here at the peak of his powers having won back-to-back 6f Newmarket handicaps, the latest off top weight. He represents the masterful Glorious Goodwood trainer who has a superb record at the meeting, as well as in this race. He receives a hefty 3 year olds’ weight allowance to make life a little easier, however the big worry is the trip, as he finished sixth in his only outing over one mile. Captain Bertie comes in as a close second to the main selection, arriving here on the back of a solid effort in a 7f Newmarket handicap last time out, so a reproduction of that performance off the same mark should see him go close. He joins Fulbright at the head of the betting and is also drawn well in stall six – both huge positives. He represents the 4 year old generation, who have a solid record, however there are a couple of slight negatives; he is only rated 93, and seems to prefer more cut in the ground. Although it has historically paid to stick with horses heading the market, two of the last three runners have returned 22/1 and 25/1, which leads us on to Sir Reginald. He was far from disgraced when finishing fourth behind Captain Bertie on heavy ground last time out, and with forecast faster ground in his favour here, he could well make the frame. He is another horse to have fared well with the draw in stall seven, and represents the Richard Fahey team, who won the race in 2003. The final horse to make the shortlist is Excellent Guest, who fits many of the trends. Drawn well in stall three, as well as featuring prominently in the betting, a big run is expected. As previously mentioned earlier in the piece, we can forgive his latest run as he didn’t have much luck in running, but he did prove his well-being the time before. 3.45 Gordon’s King George Stakes (Group 2) AMOUR PROPRE was the runner-up behind Masamah last year but can gain compensation for that defeat with victory this time around. He is a horse that seems to come to his own around this time of year, as shown by his gallant effort here twelve months ago before he went on to beat Sole Power in a Group 3 over in Ireland. His trainer, Henry Candy, has already had a winner at the meeting this week, declaring after the race that the yard was in great form. He will be suited by the conditions and is proven at the track which gives me strong indications he will run a big race. Tangerine Trees will prove to be one of the key dangers, especially if able to repeat the form of his Prix De L’Abbaye success last season. He was far from disgraced at Royal Ascot in the King’s Stand Stakes, finishing eighth, which is better form than most in this field, and should make the frame. Spirit Quartz finished ahead of Tangerine Trees at Ascot in fourth place, and if repeating that form is another horse entitled to be on the premises. He continued to show good form last time out when finishing a close fourth in the Coral Charge at Sandown, which ought to stand him in good stead coming here, so he could prove to be a solid each-way alternative at a forecast double figure price. 4.20 Telegraph Nursery A handicap for 2 year olds is next on the card, and it could present FREEPORT with an opportunity to lose his maiden tag. His best form to date came on his second start when he finished behind the Golophin pair of Tha’ir and Bircham. The former has since gone on to win a Listed race at Royal Ascot, before posting a career best performance here on Wednesday when finishing fourth in a bunched finish behind Olympic Glory. The latter of the pair is today’s rival, Bircham, who went on to win a maiden next time out, franking the form of this particular race even further. The selection’s sire is Bahamian Bounty who is renowned for producing successful 2 year old sprinters and I am willing to keep my faith in Brian Meehan’s runner, who is in receipt of weight from many of his rivals. As previously mentioned, Bircham finished ahead of Freeport earlier in the season, so could prove a big danger, even despite a 10lb pull in the weights in favour of Meehan’s colt. The Godolphin runner was clearly unsuited by the heavy ground in a three-runner event at Newmarket last time out, so could bounce back to form on better ground over 7f. A Certain Romance could prove best of the rest for Peter Chapple-Hyam from a handy draw. He was second on his debut before getting off the mark last time out; there should be more to come from this son of Invincible Spirit. 4.50 Oak Tree Stakes (Group 3) Much will revolve around the fitness of Mahmood Al Zarooni’s GAMILATI, who enjoyed a fruitful campaign this winter in Dubai, winning the UAE 1000 Guineas by an impressive 5½ lengths. The only bad run of her career came in the Lowther Stakes at York, but after a nice break won well first time out in Dubai, so her absence from the racecourse isn’t too much of a concern. She is the best horse in the race on ratings, and for me has the most potential and scope for improvement. She had minor surgery since returning from Dubai but I don’t expect the Godolphin team to be taking any chances with one of their brightest talents; she should be more than capable of doing herself justice, making her the one they all have to beat, despite an unhelpful draw. Another positive is that six of the last ten winners have been 3 year olds, the remaining contests going to the 4 year olds. This doesn’t bode well for the 5, 6 and 7 year olds in the field, of which there are six. Another 3 year olds I have been an avid supporter of is Regal Realm, who despite showing little in the Nell Gwyn, is given another chance to show her true ability here. She showed very smart form at two, beating Gamilati on debut, before really taking my eye when landing the Prestige Stakes at this meeting last year. Hopefully a slight break, along with first-time cheekpieces, can spark this filly back to life; if this is the case she will be right there at the finish. Survey could be the pick of the German pair, representing solid form over in her homeland, winning and placing at Group 3 level and it would be foolish to discount her. 5.25 Betfred Bonus King Handicap The final race of the day could go to the lightly raced and lowly weighted SANDFRANKSKIPSGO. It has paid to side with the lowly weighted horses in this race over the past ten years; only two winners have carried above 8st8lb, which bodes well for the selection. He won his maiden at Windsor over this trip on fast ground, but then his next two runs were below par. One which was over 6f (probably didn’t stay), and the other was at Windsor over 5f where he blew the start before being hampered and consequently was eased before the finish. He bounced back to form last time out when third behind Lady Gibraltar; however the selection gets a 6lb pull in the weights here so he is fully entitled to reverse the form. He has plenty of scope for improvement, so providing he breaks cleanly he should be a dangerous proposition in this field, running off a mere 8st4lb. Tango Sky, for the Ralph Beckett yard, could be the one to chase him home. He won at Haydock over 5f off a mark of 75, then finished a gallant runner-up next time out over 6f. He didn’t quite get home over the extra furlong, so despite another rise in the weights to 82, the return to 5f is a big plus and it is doubtful we have seen the best of him so far. The final horse to make the shortlist is the Irish challenger, Harry Trotter, who successfully won a big race handicap at Royal Ascot with Dandy Boy. This horse has mainly been running over 6 and 7f in Ireland, but has given the impression he is well worth a try over 5f, given he has been tiring close to home over the longer distances. Any Irish challengers should be respected, and it would not surprise me to see this horse run well.

[Flat Racing - Thursday 2nd Aug - 3rd day of Goodwood]

Re: Flat Racing - Thursday 2nd Aug - 3rd day of Goodwood 2.15 Betfred The Bonus King Stakes (Handicap) The first race on day three should see a handful of horses in the mix, with my vote going to Andrew Balding’s HALLINGS COMET. He is one of the least exposed runners in the field having had just three runs; he gets in here off a low weight of 8st 5lb, whereas many of the key protagonists have already shown their hand to the assessor. This horse scored by a staggering 10 lengths at the second time of asking at Chepstow on heavy ground, before following this up with a solid effort (off a mark of 82) in a competitive handicap at Newmarket. The handicapper has raised him 1lb for that effort, but as he is stepping up in trip a further 2f, which on his pedigree ought to be far more suitable than a mile, I expect a huge run from him. Although his latest outings have come on soft and heavy ground, I don’t see the faster surface being an issue; if it were to rain over the next 24 hours then he has proven form on a softer surface. The horse at the top of the weights, Grandeur, has done little wrong this season, but found the step up to Group company at Royal Ascot a bridge too far last time. This also proved the case for Wrotham Heath, who beat Grandeur by a neck prior to their Royal meeting; however Jeremy Noseda’s has a pull in the weights here, so should, in theory, reverse the form. He represents a solid option and although he may be a little high in the weights to win the race, he should be there or thereabouts at the finish. He also has some all important course and distance form. One further horse to consider is the Amanda Perrett-trained Blue Surf, who won impressively when stepping up to this distance at Windsor on his most recent start. He has gone up 4lb for that success, but still looks fairly well treated. His trainer won this race back in 2004, which is another plus; however, like Grandeur, he will need some luck in running from a wide draw. 2.45 Audi Richmond Stakes (Group 2) AHERN is given another chance to register his first Group race success on the back of a solid effort in the July Stakes at Newmarket, in which he finished a close up third behind a smart looking type of Richard Hannon’s. Before this he was fifth in the Norfolk Stakes over 5f behind Reckless Abandon, which is proving to be top quality form. The testing ground at Newmarket may have been too much for this son of Dutch Art, so with the forecast better ground he has to be the one to beat. In my opinion it will be down to Qatar Racing’s other runner, Cay Verde, to chase him home. He was only just behind Ahern in the Norfolk Stakes, a race for which he was sent off the 11/4 favourite having previously won a Listed race at the Curragh in good style. He steps marginally into the unknown by trying 6f for the first time here, but he has plenty of potential, and may have been freshened up by a 42 day break. The yard has also had a 2 year old winner at the meeting already with Bungleinthejungle scoring on Tuesday. 3.15 Artemis Goodwood Cup (Group 2) The main focus will undoubtedly surround the Ascot Gold Cup hero Colour Vision, who will be aiming to give the Godolphin team their third win in this race in the last four years. He certainly has a great chance on the back of a gutsy win over his fellow Godolphin runner (and winner of the race last year) Opinion Poll. He does however, have a 4lb penalty, which makes life a little tougher. I am also slightly unsure whether the 2m trip will be as suitable as the 2m4f distance at Ascot. He needed every yard to get up close home, so the shorter trip and penalty cast a shadow of a doubt. The horse I think can beat him is his stable mate, LOST IN THE MOMENT, who was narrowly denied a victory in this race twelve months ago, going down by a head to Opinion Poll. His latest run over 1m4f in a small field was never going to play to his strengths, and was clearly a prep race to get him spot on for this. He has only tackled this trip twice, but to great effect on both occasions; when finishing a gallant third in the Melbourne Cup, and on his previously mentioned second placed effort in the 2011 running of this race. For me, he will take all the beating. Looking through the remainder of the card for dangers, Saddler’s Risk would have to be feared on the back of his third placed finish behind Colour Vision at Ascot, but 4 year olds have an appalling record in the race in recent times, winning just one of the last ten renewals. He also looks as if he relishes the marathon trips, so 2m may be a little to sharp for him. This leaves me with the other Irish representative in the field, the dual Royal Ascot winner Simenon. Although both of his wins came in handicap company, the consummate ease with which he demolished two competitive fields was very impressive. Both of these wins were over a much greater distance, so it cannot be said whether he will be equally effective over 2m, but he has masses of potential and he is the unknown quantity in the race. He may be the lowest rated horse in the line-up, but I can see him fighting it out for the minor placings. 3.45 Ishares Fillies’ Stakes (Registered as the Lillie Langtry Stakes) (Group 3) The one they have to beat here looks to be the Queen’s Vase winner ESTIMATE, for Sir Michael Stoute and the Queen. She could not have been more impressive at Royal Ascot when winning by 5 lengths, and there should be more to come. It looks a fairly weak renewal on paper, with seven of the 12 runners rated 95 or lower. The 4 year olds have enjoyed a fruitful time in this contest, winning the last three renewals; however the 3 year olds have also tasted victory three times in the last ten years. More importantly, Stoute won the race with the 3 year old Hi Calypso in 2007, so he certainly knows what it takes to win the race. The selection is also getting a hefty allowance, which could prove decisive. The two challengers from overseas could be the next best. Paul Deegan sends over the Irish raider Midnight Soprano, who has been a revelation this term. She won five on the bounce before bumping into a smart John Oxx runner on her last outing, when stepping up to Group company for the first time. Two starts ago she had Saddler’s Risk and Unaccompanied behind her, albeit on heavy ground. It was still a solid performance, and she is certainly one to be respected. The last horse to make the cut is the French filly Jehannedarc, trained by Alain De Royer-Dupre. She won last time out over 1m4f on the all-weather at Deauville; given she is a daughter of Montjeu, she should have no problem with the extra 2f in front of her. The fact her trainer has brought her over from France speaks volumes, so she could well make the frame at a forecast double figure price. 4.20 EBF British Stallions Studs New Ham Maiden Fillies’ Stakes A tricky maiden for fillies comes next, and there is not a great deal of form to go on. One horse with a run to her name is SUPERNOVA HEIGHTS, from the Brian Meehan stable. His juveniles always come on for the run, so the fact that this horse finished fourth in a competitive Newmarket maiden speaks volumes from my perspective. She is related to two smart types and will have learnt a lot from her racecourse debut. She also holds a Group 1 entry later in the year, indicating that connections think highly of this horse; I would be surprised if she isn’t in the first three. As in any 2 year old contest, Richard Hannon’s runners have to be taken seriously, which leads me to Botanica, ridden by Richard Hughes. This filly made a pleasing debut, before finishing third last time out at Goodwood – a race which is working out well, the winner finishing third in the valuable Super Sprint at Newbury and the runner-up winning since. Hannon has given her a nice break, and she should be more than capable of making the frame with all important racecourse experience on her side. One of the unraced runners to consider could be Polly’s Love, trained by Clive Cox. She is sister to a first time out winner in Ireland, as well as being the half-sister to the yard’s two-time Listed winner Polly’s Mark. The stable have already tasted success with the superb 2 year old Reckless Abandon; this filly needs to be monitored in the betting. 4.55 Tailer Stakes (Handicap) STIRRING BALLAD ostensibly holds a great chance of registering a hat-trick of wins here. People may be put off by the fact this filly ran just eight days ago; however she fits a similar profile to the yard’s 2008 winner of this race, Blue Sky Basin, who was also victorious in a handicap eight days before scoring in this race. Franny Norton was on board that day and is once again trusted to get the job done. This well bred filly won well last time out, when striding on purposely in the closing stages; I would be disappointed if there wasn’t more to come. Shamaal Nibras could prove a solid alternative after finding a mile a little too far last time out. That run was far from discreditable, as he finished runner-up to John Gosden’s Trade Commissioner, and now, returning to 7f (having won two from four over this distance) he is entitled to be in the mix. One at a bigger price to consider is the Kevin Ryan-trained Hamza. He showed smart form at the beginning of 2011, but then seemed to go off the rails somewhat. He then bounced back to form on his second start this campaign by winning a 7f handicap. He then went on to the Britannia Stakes at Royal Ascot, but was stretched over the 1m trip; he should find the drop back to 7f here a big plus, and is by no means handicapped out of the equation. 5.25 Betfred Mobile Lotto Stakes (Handicap) The final race on day three is once again a fairly open looking handicap, but I will be siding with MARSHGATE LANE. His most recent form showed him staying on strongly at Newmarket to get off the mark at the second time of asking; he has been given an initial mark of 88 by the assessor, which isn’t overly harsh. He only got up to win close home last time over 1m2f, so the 1m3f trip is sure to bring out even more improvement. I think he may prove a class above the other runners and could win here on the way to competing in pattern company. One of the more exposed types that I think could run well is Traveller’s Tales, for Richard Hannon and promising young rider Brendan Powell. This horse won well off a mark of 76 at Salisbury, but then found life tough having risen in weights. Powell takes off an invaluable 5lb which brings the horse back down to her last winning mark and is well worth a crack at this trip. This jockey also teamed up with connections to good effect earlier this season when riding Free Verse to victory. Another horse who should appreciate the step up in trip is Silver Lime. He was a gallant runner-up at this course last time out over 1m1f, just failing to get home near the line. As his pedigree suggests, he certainly warrants a try over this longer trip. The form of his races hasn’t worked out incredibly well so far, but he is very unexposed, so if he makes the frame it would be no great surprise.

[Flat Racing ~ Wednesday August 1st ~ Goodwood Day 2]

Re: Flat Racing ~ Wednesday August 1st ~ Goodwood Day 2 2.00 Goodwood Stakes (Handicap) The stayers take centre stage in the opening race of day two at Glorious Goodwood with Hurricane Higgins one to consider for Mark Johnston who won the race back in 2003. He was highly tried at the top level as a 3yo but did run some solid races in defeat, including when a ½ length runner-up in the Lingfield Derby Trial and when 6th behind his stable mate Namibian in last year’s Gordon Stakes here at Goodwood. His stamina does have to be taken on trust but Johnston’s horses are normally pretty tough, so if he does stay the trip he could be an interesting outsider. Romeo Montague is a proven stayer over this marathon distance having finished 3rd in the 2m5 ½f Queen Alexandra Stakes at Royal Ascot behind Willie Mullins impressive Simenon. Things didn’t really go to plan for this horse at the beginning of the season but he has made up for that with his performance at Royal Ascot before then going on to win a 2m handicap at the same course. His last two performances have also come on a softer surface, so the forecast rain would definitely strengthen his chances. He has gone up 3lb in the weights on the back of his recent victory, which will make life tougher, but he has proven himself over the distance and could easily be in the shake-up. Another horse to finish behind Simenon at Royal Ascot was NAFAATH, however he did so in the 2m4f Ascot Stakes, a race in which he was staying on the closing stages. The extra furlong and a half in front of him ought to suit and he is only 1lb higher in the weights this time around. He bumped into a ridiculously well-handicapped rival in Simenon at Ascot, however that rival does not line-up here at Goodwood, so I am expecting a big run from Neil King’s 6yo gelding. One final horse for the shortlist which could also run a big race is the Tom Taaffe-trained Defence of Duress. The fact that his trainer has decided to bring him over from Ireland speaks volumes for me, especially having had a nice prep run over hurdles 19 days ago to put him spot on for this. His stamina does have to be taken slightly on trust, but his sire Motivator has a 35% (12 winners-34 runners) strike-rate with his progeny running over 14f or further. 2.35 Veuve Clicquot Vintage Stakes (Group 2) A very competitive 2yo Group 2 with many horses seemingly holding strong claims. Ghurair won very impressively in a tough Newmarket maiden 19 days ago, with the form of that racing taking a boost when the fourth horse home, Alfonso De Sousa, dotted up at Leopardstown by 9 lengths. He does have a lot to find on the more experienced rivals in the field but he certainly has a lot of potential. His sire Elusive Quality is also having a great time of things and he is definitely an intriguing prospect. The field includes six of the runners from the Superlative Stakes at Newarket, including the first four home; OLYMPIC GLORY took the spoils, just ahead of Birdman, Maxentus and Artigiano. The winner of the race, Olympic Glory, is trained by the masterful 2yo handler Richard Hannon, who is bidding for a third consecutive win in the contest.He certainly holds a superb chance with this son of Choisir. I had doubts about how he would handle the soft ground at Newmarket last time out, but he showed his class in taking the victory. Even despite the forecast rain, the ground should still be more of the soft side of good than soft, which will be much more suitable for the horse. We also must not forget that he gave the unbeaten Dawn Approach a good race in the Coventry Stakes at Royal Ascot, which is arguably the best form on offer and he is the one to beat. Maxintus may have been third behind the selection at Newmarket, but I expect a closer battle on the forecast better ground. He was travelling the best for a long way at Newmarket hitting the front on the bridle, however the rain softened ground eventually took its toll, halting his progress, so I expect a better showing on better ground, putting him right there at the finish. 3.10 Qipco Sussex Stakes (Group 1) There isn’t too much I can say about this race as the flawless FRANKEL bids to stretch his unbeaten run to 12. He seemingly just needs to turn up to win, with the next best horse in the field, Farhh, rated a staggering 18lb inferior on official figures. The only advice I can give you is to exploit any distance betting the bookmakers dare to offer, with Frankel to win by 10 lengths or more a likely outcome. Farhh is clear second best on figures, rated 11lb higher than Frankel’s three-quarter’s brother Bullet Train, who has 3lb in hand over Gabrial, with the latter duo likely to be scrapping over third and fourth places. 3.45 UBS Stakes (Handicap) It will be intriguing to see how Scatter Dice comes out of her race at the weekend, in which she just held on to record her fourth victory from eight starts. Darren Egan remains on board after his winning ride at the weekend, once again taking an invaluable 5lb out of the saddle. She is a real tough filly, typifying what Mark Johnston’s horses are all about. She certainly arrives here on the top of her game but the extra hike in the weights creates a little bit of doubt in my mind, however if any trainer is capable of such a feat it is Johnston. Trend Is My Friend is a runner which also takes my eye for the Amanda Perrett team. He won last time out making his handicap debut over 1m2f, getting up to win close home. He is up another two furlongs in trip here, but with more progress on the cards he could be well treated. They all may have to chase home MAWAQEET however, who won his maiden over 1m 3f at Hamilton last time out in fine style. He is one of the least fancied horses in the race but I believe his form is better than many give him credit for. He was second to the smart Trade Commissioner, who has since gone on to win a valuable handicap off a mark of 98. He also beat a horse called Sir Quintin by 4 ¼ lengths, whom Rule Book could only beat by ¼ of a length. That particular horse is 7/1 yet Sir Michael Stoute’s runner is 20/1, which doesn’t quite add up in my mind. The selection also steps up another furlong in trip, which on pedigree should suit, and he also hails from a yard in form (8 winners from their last 26 runners) and I am expecting a big run at a huge price. 4.20 Markel Insurance Maiden Fillies’ Stakes Pearl Sea certainly appears to hold the strongest form in the book on paper after finishing 3rd on debut before bettering that in finishing 2nd next time. She was beaten by what looks a smart prospect from the Godolphin team, so if she can build on that here she is entitled to be in the mix once more. Bint Youmzain is another filly I expect to be in the mix. I am predicting vast improvement on her sixth-place finish on debut having started the race slowly before being hampered when making good progress. Mick Channon’s team have been in good form all year and his horses historically come on for the run. With valuable racecourse experience under her belt, I would be surprised if she didn’t run a big race, providing she starts better. This leaves me with Paul Cole’s grey filly CUT NO ICE, who has had the two runs to date, with her latest 3rd placed performance fairly eye-catching; the winner of the race, Ollie Olga, has since gone on to make it 2 from 2 in a conditions race and the 4th horse home has gone on to win by 4½ lengths. Paul Cole has not had much firepower at his disposal over recent years but he certainly looks to have a smart filly here, and she could take all the beating. 4.55 British Stallion Studs Turf Club EBF Fillies’ Stakes (Handicap) Another competitive affair but the one they all have to beat is the progressive filly KEENE DANCER, who hails from the Sir Michael Stoute yard. She certainly fits the bill from a trends perspective; six of the last ten winners have been the market leader (favourite at the time of writing) and eight of the last ten winners have been 3yos. Back-to-back wins at Windsor, firstly in maiden company followed by a handicap win off 78, clearly outline the form she is in coming here. The handicapper has upped her mark to 85 but with more progress likely over a furlong further, she could prove very tough to beat. The question marks surrounding the ground won’t be an issue with the filly already proving equally adept on good-to-firm and heavy ground. Another horse representing a top stable is Sir Henry Cecil’s Oasis Dream filly, Chigun, who was ultra-impressive when getting off the mark at the fourth time of asking. She fairly dotted up by an incredible 10 lengths, but it is hard to assess the true level of this form and an opening mark of 90 maybe fairly harsh; however she is very unexposed, clearly has plenty of talent and could be anything. Princess Caetani is also an interesting runner after winning a Salisbury handicap by 7 lengths off a mark of 74. That was just a 3 runner field so it may not be the strongest form, but a 6lb rise in the weights if far from harsh and could well continue to progress. Oojooba could also be worth taking a chance on after finding 1m2f too far. She made a winning debut last September over a mile and this 1m1f trip may prove to be more suitable. 5.30 Harwoods Racing Club Handicap Stakes The final race could all revolve around Jeremy Noseda’s TRIPLE CHARM, who I believe is still fairly well treated after just the nine starts. There are also plenty of valid excuses for her recent defeats. Last time out at Kempton Ryan Moore gave her too much, with the filly finishing best of all weaving her way through the pack. The heavy ground the time before may well have stretched the horse’s stamina, and the 6f trip previously was also on the sharp side, with the filly making strong headway at the finish. William Buick is back on board today so connections could not have picked a more in form jockey and I think the pairing will be very tough to beat. White Frost is entitled to be in mix on the back of his near miss at York last weekend and is off the same mark of 86. He found life tough off marks in the 90s but is back down to his last winning rating. Dubawi Sound is another runner arriving here in fine form after hosing up a Newcastle most recently by 6 lengths. He is up 6lb for that success but the very capable apprentice Harry Bentley takes off a valuable 3lb. The only slight concerns about the latter mentioned duo, who make appearances having ran just 4 days previous, is how they fare turned out so soon. For those maybe looking for something at a bigger price, George Guru could prove to be a lively outsider for Michael Attwater. He has been beaten by some smart types on his last two starts, with the soft ground a plausible excuse the time before that, however he did win off 88 earlier this year, so a big run of 89 is not beyond the realms of possibility.

[Flat Racing ~ Tuesday 31st July ~ Goodwood Day 1]

Re: Flat Racing ~ Tuesday 31st July ~ Goodwood Day 1 my thoughts and bets for day 1 of the goodwood festival july 31st 2.00 bet365.com Stakes (Handicap) SPANISH DUKE can provide a much need big race success for the John Dunlop team; he competes here off a mark of 96, just 1lb more than on his last success. His last two runs have been over 1m 4f, but he seems better suited to the 1m 2f trip he tackles here. A quirky individual, he can often race too keenly which has hampered his chances in previous races. If things go to plan and he settles better he is more than capable of improving his 13th place in this race last year, especially as he was rated 7lb higher that day and was hampered 3 furlongs from home. Landaman could prove the chief danger for the masterful Goodwood trainer Mark Johnston, having won his last two starts, both at Beverley, in convincing fashion. Although he is 9lb higher in the weights today, Darren Egan takes off a valuable 5lb. The same rider/trainer combination teamed up to good effect at the weekend with Scatter Dice, so the same tactic could prove very shrewd once more. Sir Henry Cecil’s Specific Gravity could also be of interest after being gelded. It appeals to me that a trainer such as Sir Henry has kept faith with this son of Dansili, despite a few disappointing efforts in more competitive races. Arguably his best form came when he was 4th in a Group 3 at Ascot behind Pisco Sour. It would be a little bit of a gamble to back this horse but he is certainly one of the more intriguing runners on the card. The final horse to make the shortlist is Godolphin’s apparent second string runner, Start Right, who has previously won a 19-runner handicap at Goodwood. He ran consistently over the winter in Dubai and was given a nice introduction to the season at Newmarket to put him right for this, so as long as the winter campaign hasn’t taken too much out of him a big run could be on the cards. 2.35 bet365 Gordon Stakes (Group 3) The Gordon Stakes is a race widely contested by promising 3yo staying types who have aspirations to capture the final Classic of the season. Conduit was the last horse to win at Goodwood before going on to win at Doncaster, and St Leger entrants Michelangelo, Noble Mission, Encke and Minimise Risk will all be looking to emulate this feat. It is becoming a regular theme this season, but once again it seems that John Gosden holds all the aces in this contest, courtesy of MICHELANGELO, the clear third favourite for the St Leger at 10/1. William Buick will once again be on board this son of Galileo (who cost connections 550,000 guineas); victory is a requisite should they have serious hopes of going on to bigger and better things. He is definitely my pick for the race after impressing in each of his three runs to date. Thrown in at the deep end on his debut when pitted against today’s rival Noble Mission and Godolphin’s Mariner’s Cross, both of whom had racecourse experience on their side, he put in a more than creditable performance to finish just ¾ of a length third behind the pair. That day he struck me as an ideal St Leger candidate; a step up in trip is likely to suit. Following the aforementioned third place, he scrambled home in a 4-runner Listed race over 1m 3f. He then improved again last time out to take a valuable race at Newmarket in cosy fashion, but he now races over 1m 4f for the first time, a trip I believe will bring out vast improvement. He is almost certain to start favourite in a race which has been kind to market leaders, with five of the last six renewals going to the jolly; this strengthens my confidence in the selection and he looks the one to beat. The likely challengers look to be Encke, Noble Mission and Girolamo, with the latter my second preference. He finished third in the German Derby last time out, beaten only ½ a length, which is arguably the best form on offer here. Trained by handler of the Arc and King George heroine Danedream, Starke has shown himself adept at challenging for top prizes across Europe. Officially rated the best horse in the race, Girolamo has to be feared if the travelling doesn’t affect this promising young colt; he is more than capable of making his presence felt in this contest. 3.10 bet365 Lennox Stakes (Group 2) Richard Hannon and Sir Henry Cecil have both saddled the winner of this race in the last two years with Strong Suit (2011) and Lord Shanakill (2010) respectively; this year they both have strong chances in what in all fairness looks a weak renewal of the race. Hannon is represented by Libranno, who was beaten in this race 12 months ago; Cecil runs his tough mare, Chachamaidee, who is currently a strong 7/4 favourite. The market leaders, however, have a poor recent record in this contest, winning only two of the last ten. Sir Henry’s charge probably edges ahead as the form pick in the race, but given her fairly poor record in terms of wins (5-17) I am willing to look elsewhere. This leads me to William Haggas’ Firebeam, a horse who has yet to fulfil his true potential. The pick of his form comes from his run three starts back in a Listed race at Haydock, in which he was beaten by Red Jazz, who was second in this race last year. A lot of his racing has come with cut in the ground, but he did dot up in a York handicap on good ground, so I am intrigued to see how he goes, with Ryan Moore booked, on better ground. Bryan Smart isn’t renowned for training top class horses, but given his resources he is a very useful trainer, proving this when Tangerine Tress won the Group 1 Prix De L’Abbaye last season. He runs the Irish 2000 Guineas runner-up FOXTROT ROMEO, who will receive weight from the entire field as the only 3yo in the line-up, an age group which has dominated in winning 4 of the last 5 renewals. Although he hasn’t won since his debut he has shown solid form. In the St James’ Palace he tired late on over a mile, finishing 4th behind the impressive Most Improved, and as previously mentioned he was the runner-up to Power in the Irish 2000 Guineas. Twice he has tired late on over a mile suggesting he is well worth a crack at this 7f trip, something I believe will see him in a better light, making him very difficult to beat. 3.45 bet365 Molecomb Stakes (Group 3) The Molecomb Stakes is a 5f sprint for 2 year olds which has been won by some smart types such as Monsieur Chevalier, Zebedee and Requinto in recent times. Only the last of the trio wasn’t trained by Richard Hannon, who is represented this year by Lyric Ace and Dominate. Although the former appears to be the stable’s first string on jockey bookings, I slightly prefer the horse Ryan Moore rides. This son of Assertive dotted up on soft ground last time out at Sandown in fine style. I don’t think the good ground they are likely to race on this week will be a problem, giving him a strong each-way shout. Jadanna also makes the shortlist having shown solid from in defeat at both Ascot, where she finished fifth despite racing on the unfavoured part of the course, and then at Newmarket, where she finished third behind Sendmylovetorose in the Cherry Hinton. That was over 6f, which did seem to stretch her, so the drop back to 5f is a definite plus. This, combined with her capabilities on faster ground, should put her right there at the finish. They may all, however, be chasing home Roger Varian’s MORAWIJ, who finished fourth behind Reckless Abandon in the Norfolk Stakes at Royal Ascot. That particular rival has franked the form when winning a Group 2 in France, in which she beat Richard Hannon’s well regarded Sir Prancelot. Varian’s Exceed and Excel colt then scored in convincing fashion in a Sandown Listed race on good ground, suggesting he is definitely on the up; with more progress to come, Morawij could hold all the aces here. 4.15 Casino at bet365 EBF Maiden Stakes This is a really tough open maiden with not a great deal of form to go on; therefore I am sticking with those who have shown something on the racecourse. John Gosden’s season just keeps on getting better so it would be foolish to pass over any of his runners lightly, with BLESSINGTON looking to hold strong claims in this particular contest. He was sixth on his debut at Windsor but that run was far better than the form suggests; he started the race slowly before being hampered severely. Things just didn’t go to plan that day, so given a clear run, as well as breaking on terms, he should be there or thereabouts. Richard Fahey’s Garswood also appears to hold every chance on the back of a solid third in a competitive York maiden. This son of Dutch Art holds a Gimcrack entry, suggesting the horse is held in some regard. One to consider at a slightly bigger price is Prince Regal, who ran disappointingly last time out after a promising debut. I am trusting the drop to 5f last time out wasn’t ideal, so when stepping back up to 6f and encountering real good ground for the first time, he could well outrun his odds. 4.50 Poker at bet365 Stakes (Handicap) Plenty of this field seem fairly exposed with the handicapper appearing to hold the upper hand, however this cannot be said about the unexposed JACOB CATS for the Hannon and Hughes team. He is the only 3 year old in the race, which for me is a positive, especially given three of the last six renewals of this race has been won by this particular age group. He has now won three of his six career starts, including his last two races, so he could not be arriving here in better form. Although carrying a 6lb penalty for his latest success at Sandown six days ago, the manner in which he won was very impressive, suggesting that a prize of this nature is well within his reach. Snow Bay could well be capable of exploiting a mark of 85 if repeating the form shown at Ripon three starts ago. His last two starts can be discounted due to soft ground at York and the slow surface at Southwell. Both of these runs were also over 7f and the return to 1m on good ground should present perfect conditions. Another runner which could well make the frame is Scott Dixon’s Askaud, who finished a credible runner-up last time out at York off this mark. She is a previous course winner off a 2lb lower mark, so cannot be discounted, especially if the blinkers do the trick once more. War Singer occupies the fourth position on my shortlist despite the 1m trip seemingly being a negative. Eddie Ahern rides the horse once again, having finished third over 1m 2f last time on soft ground, tiring in the final furlong. They can often go a frantic pace in these types of races, which may just bring the stamina of this horse in to play and he could well be staying on late to challenge. 5.25 Mobile at bet365 Stakes (Handicap) A 26 runner 5f Handicap to finish the day does not make things easy, therefore it may be worth approaching this race with a fair degree of caution. I will however try to pick out a few of the likely contenders. Falasteen remains 3lb below his last winning mark and is likely to be at home on the forecast ground conditions. The booking of Richard Hughes is an eye-catching one; this, as well as the previous solid performances in big field handicaps, could see him make the shake-up. Perfect Blossom’s recent form has been far from inspiring; she did however win at Goodwood 2 years ago in identical conditions, off the same handicap rating of 84, and therefore everything could well pan out perfectly. Kingsgate Choice is another to consider as he will be racing back on a sounder surface. The soft ground at Newmarket was far from ideal last time out, and having won three times on good to firm ground he might be worth taking a chance on; Tom Queally is booked to ride him for the first time. The horse I am most confident about however, is R WOODY, who has won two from two here at Goodwood. A respectable reappearance on unsuitable soft ground at Newmarket behind Steps last time out should have put the horse spot on for this. His second course win was also off a mark of 89, 4lb lower than his current rating, making him dangerously well handicapped if rediscovering his best form.

[BBOTD Tuesday 17th July]

Re: BBOTD Tuesday 17th July Sorry for putting this up a bit early but want to take the price incase it drops dramatically tomorrow. 2:00 Beverley - Forster Street - 1pt Win (9/1, Bet365) Usual type that I'm interested in, 3 'terrible' maiden runs (finished 4th on same course last time out which was a good run in reality) then gelded before making it's reappearance over a longer distance on it's handicap debut. Graham Gibbons booked hopefully for a winning job tomorrow and Tim Easterby is in amazing form recently, banging in a 5 timer Saturday so this horse making it's reappearance at this time hopefully is a sign of intent. Hopefully there will be a bit of money for this now to cement it's likelihood of a good run tomorrow. well done,great call

[Flat Racing ~ Saturday 14th July]

Re: Flat Racing ~ Saturday 14th July 3:00 York – 53rd John Smith’s Cup It is 39 years and counting since a horse aged six or older won the John Smith’s Cup and if that wasn’t enough very few actually make the frame. Despite one minor blip in 2010 when the six-year-olds Kings Gambit, Demolition and Hillview Boy finished 2nd, 3rd and 4th overall the older horses have generally struggled to land a blow and therefore we should be able to reduce the 20 runners to a more manageable 15. Green Destiny’s victory last season reconfirmed that four-year-olds have the by far the best record in terms of win and placed efforts although to be fair they have been responsible for the greatest number of runners. To hammer their point home, four-year-olds filled the first four places in 2004 and 2007 and provided the first three home in 2009. Seven four-year-olds are set to face the starter on Saturday. There is very little to separate three-year-olds or five-year-olds in terms of winners although the youngsters tend to have far fewer runners – in fact none go to post this year. Every winner in the last decade had been officially rated at least 91. Historically, this would have been a useful tool as the last 72 runners officially rated 90 or lower had all tasted defeat. However, with the quality of the John Smith’s Cup getting better by the year, very few horses rated less than that benchmark actually run in the race – in fact only one, Tameen is rated less than 91 this year. The trends surrounding the draw in the John Smith’s Cup are pretty inconclusive so no runner should be discounted solely on account of their draw. However, if push comes to shove it may be worth siding with a horse from a middle to high draw as only two of the last 12 winners did so from stall 7 or lower. The John Smith’s Cup has been a good race in recent seasons for horses coming into the race in good form as nine of the last 11 winners had already won at least once earlier in the season. The only exceptions were Far Lane, who had run well to finish 3rd in a competitive York Handicap on his only start of the season and Mullins Bay who had improved with each run prior to his victory here having previously suffering a narrow defeat when runner up in the Listed Wolferton Stakes at Royal Ascot at York. Aidan O’Brien’s runner confirmed his victory was no fluke when winning the Group 3 Strensall Stakes, again here on the Knavesmire, the following month. Therefore, there is strong evidence to oppose all those that are yet to record a victory this season with the exception of those that ran encouraging races in defeat. Nine of the last 11 winners had achieved a top-four finish on their most recent start which backs up the view that it is the form horses coming into the race that have tended to hold the upper hand. In fact, four of those nine, Foreign Affairs, Arcalis, Flying Clarets and Sirvino had been last time out winners whilst Mullins Bay and Fairmile had both been runners-up. In general, trainers based in Yorkshire have not had a lot of success in recent seasons in the JohnSmith’s Cup, with the sole exception of Richard Fahey who has been flying the flag for the white rose county by winning the race three times in the last ten years. Victories for Vintage Premium, Charlie Tokyo and Flying Clarets are joined by the 2005 runner up Realism in addition to Albaqaa and Demolition who both finished 3rd. He is represented by two runners on Saturday. David Barron sent out the 2009 winner, Sirvino but he is without a runner this season. There have only been two winning favourites in the last ten years but an average winning starting price of a little under 11-1 does tell us that it is the more fancied runners that tend to prevail. However, with 20-1 winners in both 2002 and 2004 and a 16/1 winner in 2009 it isn’t totally unheard of for an un-fancied runner to land the spoils. Shortlist Stand To Reason Mijhaar Area Fifty One Kirthill Conclusion The 2012 renewal of the John Smith’s Cup looks a typically competitive contest. Mijhaar currently sits at the head of the betting following his narrow defeat by the classy Gatewood in the Wolferton Handicap at Royal Ascot. If he can build on that in a first-time hood, he should take all the beating although it remains to be seen quite how hard a race he had. Area Fifty One won well at Newmarket last month and could go close as long as he isn’t inconvenienced by the soft ground whilst Luca Cumani expects the soft ground to suit his runner Kirthill. But it might be worth taking a chance on STAND TO REASON who is at his very best on soft ground. He has run well on his last couple of starts before not really staying a mile and a half in the Duke Of Edinburgh handicap last time. Back over a trip and on ground that suits he could reward each-way support at his current odds of around 20-1. 3:20 Newmarket – Darley July Cup (Gr1) Three-year-olds were the dominant force in the 1970s, 1980s and 1990s but although their record hasn’t been quite as strong in recent seasons, Dream Ahead’s victory last year re-confirms that they are a force to be reckoned with. The Irish-raiders Reply and Fire Lily are the only two representatives from the ‘Classic’ generation on Saturady so it will be interesting to see if they can live up to expectations. Four-year-olds have also won their fair share down the years, including two of the last three renewals thanks to Fleeting Spirit and Starspangledbanner and so Krypton Factor, Libranno, Mayson, Sirius Prospect, Sepoy and Strong Suit also warrant careful consideration. Five-year-olds didn’t have the greatest of records in the Darley July Cup, winning it only three times between 1968 and 1999, but since then they have chalked up another four victories courtesy of Agnes World, Continent, Frizzante and Marchand D’or. The well-fancied Bated Breath and Society Rock represent that age group on Saturday. On a negative front all runners aged six or above really ought to be opposed as aside from the 2006 Les Arcs it is over 60 years since one of the older generations graced the Winners’ Enclosure – not great reading if Genki, Ortensia, Hawkeyethenoo, Dandy Boy or The Cheka were your main fancy. The Darley July Cup’s place in the racing calendar means that it is the natural progression for those horses which contested the big sprints at Royal Ascot. Overall, 10 of the last 11 winners had previously run at the Royal Meeting, the only exception being the unexposed Sakhee’s Secret. Despite the fact that the King’s Stand Stakes is run over a furlong shorter than Saturday’s trip, it is a race that has provided five recent Darley July Cup winners although it isn’t the winner that we should be concentrating on – Pivotal, Bolshoi, Mitcham, Cassandra Go, Choisir, Takeover Target and Scenic Blast all came up short when attempting to land the big race double. It is the placed horses which have supplied four of those five winners, Les Arcs who was 11th the only one to let the side down. This trend does prove a very strong pointer to Bated Breath who finished runner-up in this year’s renewal and possibly Ortensia who was 9th. Renamed the Diamond Jubilee Stakes in 2012, having been know as the Golden Jubilee Stakes and the Cork & Orrery Stakes prior to that, the 6f Group 1 has also supplied it’s fair share of Darley July Cup winners. Starspangledbanner, Aidan O’Brien’s Aussie import, joined Les Arcs by completing the big-race double but those two would appear to be the exemption rather than the norm as the previous six Diamond Jubilee winners to have lined up here were all beaten. Black Caviar was the eventful winner of this year’s renewal but the race is represented by Society Rock (5th), Krypton Factor (6th), Sirius Prospect (7th), Genki (11th) and The Cheka (12th). The victories of Pastoral Pursuits and Sakhee’s Secret give Hughie Morrison a two from two record in the Darley July Cup but sadly he is without a runner this afternoon as is Sir Michael Stoute who has won the race three times courtesy of Marwell, Green Desert and Ajdal. Aidan O’Brien is therefore the leading trainer with a runner this year so it will be very interesting to see how his Irish 2000 Guineas third, Reply performs as he drops down in trip. Richard Hannon won the Darley July Cup in 1992 with Mr Brooks but he has been out of luck since then. However, he runs Strong Suit and Libranno to try and chalk up that illusive second winner. James Fanshawe won this race in 2004 with Frizzante and he will be hopeful of a big run from Society Rock after he finished only two lengths behind Black Caviar at Royal Ascot. Dream Ahead joined quite a unique club when winning the Darley July Cup last year as he became only the 6th winner in the past 24 years that had previously won at Group 1 level. Therefore, whilst it would be foolish to discount the previous Group 1 winners such as Krypton Factor, Sepoy, Society Rock and Ortensia on this trend alone, we shouldn’t be put off an up and coming sprinter who is, as yet, unproven at this level. Horses coming into the race on the back of rock-solid recent efforts have tended to hold the upper hand over the past decade. Three had been last time out winners; one runner-up and two had finished third. Continent and Marchand D’Or had both run sound races in defeat in the Golden Jubilee. It is also harsh to criticise Pastoral Pursuits or Dream Ahead as both had run admirably in defeat over a mile in the Queen Anne and St James’s Palace Stakes respectively. Compton Place provided the last real shock in the July Cup when winning odds at 50/1 in 1997. But overall it has usually paid to side with the more fancied runners as eight of the last ten winners had come from the first five in the betting which is supported by an average winning starting price of a shade over 9/1. At the time of writing Bated Breath heads the betting closely followed by Society Rock, Ortensia, Strong Suit, Sepoy and Dandy Boy. Shortlist Sepoy Bated Breath Society Rock Strong Suit Conclusion Bated Breath would seem to tick most of the right boxes and couldn’t be arriving here in better form having been narrowly beaten in the King’s Stand Stakes. However, before reaching for your cheque book, it does need pointing out that all of his best form has come on a much faster surface than he is likely to encounter this afternoon. He certainly has the class to win but does he have the ground? The soft conditions are less of a concern for Society Rock who won the 2011 Diamond Jubilee Stakes under similar conditions and ran another encouraging race in this year’s renewal. Strong Suit trailed in Frankel’s wake at Royal Ascot and it is interesting that Richard Hannon has decided to drop him down from a mile to 6f on Saturday. On a sound surface he would have to be given a chance. But at a bigger price SEPOY earns top-spot on the shortlist. He was one of the best sprinters in Australia last season winning nine of his ten starts, which included four Group 1s. Just as important is the fact that the majority of those nine victories came on good to soft or soft ground so he will not be inconvenienced in the slightest on Saturday. If he can recapture the very best of his Australian form he could prove decent value at 12/1. At even bigger prices Sirius Prospect and Reply could both have place claims on the very best of their form from last season. 3:50 Newbury – Weatherbys Super Sprint The 25 runner Weatherbys sponsored Super Sprint does look a bit of a minefield at first glance but there are some decent trends which should be able to narrow the runners down. At the time of writing there hasn’t been any markets form so I am writing this peice slightly blind but make sure that you check the betting, when it is available, before pinning your hopes to any one selection in particular. This important as 10 of the last 13 winners came from the first 5 in the betting so it would make sense to concentrate on that group. To instantly reduce the field we can discount maidens as only 1 winner in the races history had been a maiden. Therefore, Top Boy, Ceelo, Royal Aspiration, Shahdaroba, Ouzinkie, Marvelino, The Black Jacobian, Palladius, Red Star Lady and Vestibule all get an early bath. Equally, we can also look to oppose those runners carrying in excess of 9st as only 1 winner in the races history has carried more than 9st to victory – so Bungle Inthejungle also misses out. When it comes to recent form, it is hardly surprising that the Royal Meeting has been a pretty big influence with 9 of the last 13 winners running at Royal Ascot. A few of the more notable Royal Ascot runners in this year’s line up are Hototo who won the Windsor Castle with Liber 7th, Pay Freeze 9th and Lyric Ace 15th whilst Satsuma finished 7th in the Queen Mary with Madam Mojito 9th. The last two horses mentioned are both fillies and this brings me on nicely to the next trend. 7 of the last 13 renewals of the Super Sprint have been won by fillies so in addition to those two, Woodland Mill, Rhagori Aur, Body And Soul and Momalorka warrant close scrutiny. The reason for this is because fillies’ automatically receive a 5lb allowance from their male rivals but as weights in this contest are governed by each animal’s price at the sales, they can also receive a fair bit more than that as, in general, fillies tend to go through the ring at a lower price. Richard Hannon is unsurprisingly the man to follow here having trained 4 of the last 9 Super Sprint winners. But surprisingly, he only runs 2 on Saturday with his main thoughts clearly elsewhere. Kevin Ryan also saddles a couple of runners and whilst he is yet to saddle the winner of the race, he has had a few finish in the minor placings including 28-1 shot Nagham who finished 3rd last year. Richard Fahey saddles 3 but he has the worst record of the three. The draw has proved pretty important down the years as 8 of the last 12 winners had been drawn in the 5 stalls closest to either rail. Some of the more notable runners this year that appear to be well drawn include Liber, Lyric Ace, Rhagori Aur, Madam Mojito, Satsuma and Body And Soul. Finally, if you are still struggling to narrow it down to a final selection you might want to pick one that races up with the pace as 10 of the last 12 winners had made all or raced prominently. Shortlist Lyric Ace Body And Soul Liber (Hototo) Conclusion Hototo was an impressive winner of the Windsor Castle but his form goes further back than that as he also finished runner-up to Cay Verde on soft ground at Ascot and Mick Channon’s runner franked the form by winning a Listed race at the Curragh next time and running well in defeat in the Norfolk. Kevin Ryan’s runner has to therefore be one for the shortlist but his central draw means that he does not earn top spot. That honour lies with LYRIC ACE who on the form book has just over 8L to make up. He was the stables number one string in the Windsor Castle having won his previous two starts at Leicester and Kempton beating subsequent winners both times. I thought he showed up well through the early stages but something looked amiss as he faded rapidly with just over a furlong to run. As ever, Richard Hughes wasn’t hard on him once his chance had gone and so he should be fresher than those that had a hard race. He is drawn well if the far side provides the quicker ground and there might be a little bit of value to be had with a Hannon runner. Liber finished in front of him at Ascot running a good race in his own right. Having finished a decent 3rd in the Woodcote when he didn’t quite get home, he showed plenty of speed at Ascot before sticking on well in 7th. He will need to improve again on Saturday to figure but his breeding suggests that he should with more experience under his belt. If the near side proves the place to be Body And Soul could be the one to benefit after winning well on her last couple of starts. After winning at Pontefract she followed up on good to soft ground at Thirsk next time when she won going away. Her connections think a fair bit of this filly and this race has always been the early season target so she should run well off a feather weight.

[FLAT RACING SATURDAY 7TH JULY]

Re: FLAT RACING SATURDAY 7TH JULY 3:25 Haydock – bet365 Old Newton Cup The 7yo Halicarnassus broke with traditional last season as prior to his victory the previous 12 winners had all been 4yos or 5yos. This is probably due to the fact that horses of that age group tend to be less exposed than their older rivals who are often exactly where the handicapper wants them. So whilst Channon’s winner last year proves that trends can be broken the consensus does appear to side with the younger runners. If that proves to be the case, this year’s line up can be reduced from 17 runners to 11. Another important trend surrounds stamina. 11 of the last 12 Old Newton Cup winners had already won over a minimum of 11f and even the one that bucks this trend, Dangerous Midge, had previously won over an extended 10f. So there would seem little point siding with any horse that is yet to prove his stamina. This is possibly not an issue for any of those remaining in the hunt although Dreamspeed is yet to win beyond 1m2f as is Hurricane Higgins. When it comes to the past winners’ official ratings 9 of the last 12 had won off a mark between 89 & 97. The only exceptions being the 2001 winner Hannibal Lad (86), the 40/1 shock 2002 winner Sun Bird (77) and the heavily backed 2008 winner, Mad Rush (102). The first 2 are easily explainable as the race has moved on over the past 10 years and horses on those sorts of marks don’t usually get in the race nowadays. The case surrounding the 2008 winner Mad Rush isn’t quite as straight-forward as he was a highly progressive horse over this sort of trip who subsequently went onto run well at Group level, beaten only 2L in the Gr1 Caulfield Cup. So unless you believe Allied Powers, Parlour games or Dreamspeed are Group horses in the making, they are probably worth opposing. With 3 Old Newton Cup victories in the last 8 years, and the runner-up last year, any runner from Luca Cumani’s stable has to be respected and Franciscan looks to be exactly the sort of horse that the Italian aims at this race. Clive Cox is next best but without a runner this season so although National Hunt trainer Donald McCain is yet to win this race you could not rule out a bold effort from Lexi’s Boy after the Cheshire handler won last weekend’s Northumberland Plate. On a negative front, Mark Johnston has a less than impressive record in this race which is surprising as this is usually the type of horse he excels with. However, he has one modest 3rd-placed effort to boast from his last 17 runners to go to post so his trio of Hurricane Higgins, Tmaam and Becausewecan all look to have a point to prove. When it comes to the betting there has only been one outright winning favourite and one joint-favourite in the last 13 years which confirms that the favourite, in this case Lexi’s Boy, is usually worth taking on. The average winning SP is slightly skewed thanks to the 40/1 winner in 2002 but when excluding him, the average drops to a shade less than 9/1 bringing Franciscan, Cry Fury and Number Theory firmly into the equation and possibly Tmaam and Easy Terms if any money comes for them tomorrow. Recent form isn’t that important as although 5 of the last 12 winners had achieved a top-two finish last time, the remaining seven had finished out of the money, so it is probably best to favour those horses which ran well last time, regardless of their finishing position or at least those that had valid excuses. The only race worth paying any credence to when looking for the winner here is Royal Ascot’s Duke Of Edinburgh Handicap as it has supplied 5 of the last 12 winners but it isn’t represented this time around. Shortlist Franciscan Number Theory Cry Fury Quiz Mistress Conclusion There are a couple of others that could easily have been included in the shortlist, particularly Lexi’s Boy whose chance has to be taken very seriously with McCain in such good form this year. I have left him off as his current odds of 3-1 look a bit skinny but don’t let me put you off if you fancy him. Luca Cumani’s runners usually go well at Haydock, particularly in the Old Newton Cup, and he looks to have a decent chance of adding to that record with FRANCISCAN. The four-year-old is versatile regards to going and his habit of doing just enough to win, as was evident again at York last time, means that the handicapper cannot hammer him and a 4lb rise for his narrow York victory may not prevent him from following up tomorrow. A half-brother to Cumani’s Forte Dei Marmi, this Medicean gelding does have the scope to be a fair bit better than this. John Holt may not be a leading name in the ranks of trainers but he knows the time of day and he will win races given the right ammunition and Number Theory is a perfect example. He continues to climb up the handicapping ranks following two victories at Haydock already this term but the Lancashire course does seem to bring out the best in this Halling gelding, his form here reads 321-311, and an extra 5lb may not be enough to rule out another bold effort. Cry Fury hated the unique undulations at Epsom on his reappearance there last month but he has to be given another chance back on a more conventional circuit. Roger Charlton’s gelding doesn’t have that many miles on the clock and it could be argued that he still has a bit of improvement to come this season. If that is the case, he could be dangerous to discount.[ CRY -FURY N/R ] Quiz Mistress came from off the pace to win in impressive fashion at Salisbury last time suggesting that she was a fair bit better than her rating of 83 suggested. The handicapper agreed as he has given her an extra 7lb tomorrow but this Doyen filly has stamina and a love of soft ground in her locker and she might just pull it off especially as her trainer Hughie Morrison is the ideal man for a big-handicap coup.

[Flat Racing ~ Saturday June 30th]

Re: Flat Racing ~ Saturday June 30th 3:20 Newcastle – John Smith´s Northumberland Plate I am not sure if the meeting will go ahead as they are inspecting at 8am tomorrow but we will give it a go just in case they pass. There are some decent trends surrounding the Northumberland Plate and I could have kicked myself last year for ignoring them when it came to the winner. He qualified on most counts but, ignorantly, I ignored him because of connections. I won’t be making that same mistake again. Accept for Bangalore who carried 9st 5lbs to victory in 2002, 11 of the last 12 Northumberland Plate winners carried less than 9st. I am going to stick to my guns this year and that therefore means going against the current favourite Ile De Re and the fancied Gulf Of Naples in addition to Petara Bay, Blue Bajan, Icon Dream and Crackentorp. Following on nicely from the issue of weight, it is interesting to note that 11 of the last 13 renewals were won by horses officially rated between 85 & 94. The only 2 exceptions to that rule were Archduke Ferdinand in 2001 and the aforementioned Bangalore in 2002. Therefore I am taking the bold move to discount The Betchworth Kid, Motivado and Kiama Bay who all appear to be too high in the weights and Halla San, French Hollow and Trovare who appear too low. It is natural to assume that the draw in a 2m race won’t make any difference to the outcome, but that isn’t necessarily the case. There has been a minor blip over the past couple of years but historically a low number has generally provided the highest number of winners. In fact, 8 of the last 13 winners came from a single figure draw. Therefore, although I am not discounting Lyric Street, Montaff, Kazbow, high Office and Lexington Bay at this stage they all need to remain strong against the other trends to make it onto the shortlist. Moving on to previous form, 9 of the last 13 winners had raced within the last 28 days. Unlike sprinters who can be wound up at home on the gallops, these older stayers tend to need a race or two under their belts to be seen at their best and therefore those that have been off the track a long time should be avoided. Lyric Street and Figaro are the only 2 that fail in this area but only just. Equally as important is last time out form but not in the way you might think. In the last 12 years only 2 winners had been successful last time out, confirming that attentions should be focused on those runners that haven’t shown their full hand to the handicapper. However, the majority of those remaining 10 winners had been coming into the race with a decent effort last time behind them so I wouldn’t be too keen on anything that has been struggling coming into the race. When it comes to stamina, it goes without saying that you need to select a horse that is guaranteed to get the 2m19y trip, especially given the deluge that fell on Newcastle earlier this week. It is very easy to look at a 1m4f horse and convince yourself that he will improve for the step up in trip, a general failing of mine, but in the Plate you must stick to the proven stayers as 8 of the last 12 winners had already won over a minimum of 1m6f on the level and Mirjan and Arc Bleu had both won over 2m plus over hurdles. The only recent winner who stamina was in question going into the race was Archduke Ferdinand who hadn’t won beyond 7f on the flat but had hinted that he had a race like this in his armoury when only beaten 3L in the Gr3 Queen’s Vase 11 days earlier. Paul Cole and George Moore have been trainers to follow in the Plate but neither is represented this year. To be fair, there aren’t any trainers with runners in the race this year that have massively positive records although Richard Fahey has had a couple finish in the minor placings. However, on a negative front Mark Johnston has been one to avoid which is strange given his reputation with stayers. Since Quick Ransom caused a 25/1 upset in 1994, his runners have tended to struggle in this race so that stat helps to ease the concerns about striking Gulf Of Naples off the shortlist. With recent winners being aged from 3 to 8, there isn’t a lot to be learned although horses aged from 6 to 8 have won 7 of the last 12 renewals implying that the older horses should be the first port of call. With there being no major trials for the Northumberland Plate, the final thing to be considered is the betting. 8 of the last 12 winners had come from the first 8 in the betting so whilst I won’t be completely put off a runner at a big price, I shall be having a close look at those nearer to the head of the market. Shortlist Montaff Palazzo Bianco (High Office) (Lexington Bay) Conclusion After a memorable Royal Ascot John Gosden’s team will be in high spirits and Palazzo Bianco could add to that tomorrow. Princess Haya’s colt looked a very progressive stayer in the making last season and hasn’t done a lot to detract from that on his 2 starts this term. He clearly gets every yard of this 2m trip and has ticks in all of the right boxes. However, sometimes the trends can lead you down a dark alley as he looked to get stuck in the mud on heavy ground at Haydock last season and therefore there has to be an element of doubt about his ability to act on it tomorrow. It could be that he just ran flat at Haydock but something tells me that he might want a sounder surface. High Office has handled soft ground in the past but quite how he will cope with this is open to debate. From a trends point of view he us fairly strong and shouldn’t have any problems getting the trip as he did win over 1m6 at Musselburgh last season. His last couple of starts also offer enthusiasm. Narrowly beaten at York’s Dante Meeting, he then ran another sound race off his revised mark at Newmarket next time. He does have a bit to prove but he seems to be going the right way. Stablemate Lexington Bay was a soft ground winner at Ayr last season and would appear to get the trip judged on his narrow defeat at Kempton in April. I am willing to ignore his recent defeat as the trip looked on the sharp-side for him and so I wouldn’t be surprised in the least to see him bounce back although he too have a bit to prove off his current mark. But for my main selection I am siding with MONTAFF who finished runner-up in this race last year. I would say that his is pretty bomb-proof over this trip and encouragingly he did win his maiden on heavy ground here back in 2008 and has run well with cut in the ground since. It is also interesting to see that he is 11lb lower than when finishing runner-up here last year. A cynic might suggest that his season has been geared around winning this race, with the objective of his runs this season to get his handicap mark down. Whilst that may be the case, there is also the consideration that he might actually be regressive. But Channon has done it in this race in the past with Som Tala and as he performs well against the trends he gets the final vote. 7:40 Curragh – Dubai Duty Free Irish Derby (Gr1) As you would expect for a Classic, the Irish Derby always goes the way of a top class colt and often one that comes into the race on the back of some rock-solid form. Nine of the last ten winners had already won earlier in the season and on that basis the seasonal debut Akeed Mofeed looks to have plenty to prove on his first start since last September, along with Born To Sea who is yet to get off the mark after three starts this season. With the exception of Soldier Of Fortune, Frozen Fire and Cape Blanco the remaining seven winners over the past decade had all achieved a top three finish on their most recent start. This re-confirms that rock-solid recent form really is a must when it comes to this Group 1 contest and therefore Astrology who was a disappointing 4th in the King Edward VII Stakes at Royal Ascot, Born To Sea who posted an improved effort when 4th in the St James’s Palace Stakes at the same meeting and Imperial Monarch who had absolutely no luck in running when only finishing 8th in the Prix Du Jockey Club all have a major hurdle to overcome. Interestingly, only High Chaparral has won the Irish Derby in the last ten years off the back of a victory. All barring Grey Swallow, Hurricane Run and Cape Blanco had previously contested the Epsom Derby which isn’t totally surprising given the prestige of both races. A strong performance at Epsom helps alleviate any class or stamina worries surrounding any selection and of those Irish Derby winners that had contested the Epsom showpiece, only Soldier Of Fortune and Frozen Fire had failed to achieve a top three finish. Therefore, this year’s impressive Epsom winner Camelot would appear to fit the bill nicely and possibly Astrology who only just lost out in the battle for second. Aidan O’Brien has won the Irish Derby nine times since 1997 and seven times in the last decade. No other trainer has had a look-in recently as he has dominated the race over the past six years and with Astrology, Camelot and Imperial Monarch representing him tomorrow there is every chance he will record his own ‘magnificent seven’. British trained horses have an appalling record in the Irish Derby; Balanchine providing our last success back in 1994. The betting has proved highly informative in recent seasons as more often than not, the race is won by one of the more fancied runners. Grey Swallow and Frozen Fire are the only two notable exceptions as an average starting price of 9/2 tells us that those towards the head of the market tend to perform as expected. Four of the last ten winners had been send off the favourite and four second favourite and if this continues to be the case today Camelot who is currently a very well-supported odds-on favourite and Imperial Monarch who is next best at around 13/2 would appear to have the race between them. With only seven runners tomorrow each-way bets will only pay out for second place but big-priced shocks have been a regular occurrence in recent seasons, so don’t let that put you off. Sholokhov sprang a 200/1 surprise when runner-up in 2002 and a year later Roosevelt finished 3rd at 150/1 before Tycoon achieved the same feat 12 months later. Shortlist Camelot (Light Heavy) Conclusion But there is to be no shock selection as the trends firmly suggest that CAMELOT will give Aidan O’Brien his 7th successive Irish Derby winner. This Montjeu colt was impressive when winning the 2000 Guineas, despite the one mile trip being on the sharp-side for him, but surpassed even that when winning so easily over a mile and a half at Epsom. It will take a massive effort from one of his rivals to lower his colours. Imperial Monarch falls down on his last time out effort but it could be dangerous to rely too heavily on that given that it was a very messy race in France. Light Heavy and Speaking Of Which have done nothing but improve all season and whilst they would both need to step up again, it isn’t totally out of the question judged on what they have shown so far. Earlier in the week I had been quite keen of Dermot Weld’s colt as he really impressed me when winning on the Guineas card. However, that initial enthusiasm has been tempered somewhat but the heavy rains as I believe that he will only be seen at his best on a sounder surface and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him pulled out. There is less of a concern surrounding Jim Bolger’s colt who won the Derrinstown Derby Trial on good to soft and therefore his current price of around 25/1 does look a tad insulting.

[Royal Ascot Day 5 ~ Saturday 23rd June]

Re: Royal Ascot Day 5 ~ Saturday 23rd June 2.30 – Chesham Stakes (Listed) Mark Johnston (3), Aidan O’Brien (2) and Richard Hannon (2) are the leading trainers since 1999 Apart from the 2010 winner, all of the previous 12 winners has raced over 6f; none finishing worse than 3rd 10 of the last 12 winners were making only their second start 10 of the last 12 winners had already won a race 10 of the last 12 winners were sent off at 7/1 or less; others 22/1 and 25/1 The Chesham is always a tricky nut to crack as most of the runners will be untried over this 7f trip and therefore there is an element of guesswork involved. Dawn Approach would have been a strong fancy for this race but went down the Coventry route instead which suggests to me that Bolger thinks a fair bit of MOVE TO STRIKE. After a pleasing debut at Leopardstown, he annihilated this 6 rivals as the Curragh next time. Despite the soft ground and 6f trip, he travelled well throughout before putting the race to bed inside the final 2 furlongs and on this evidence he should have no problem with the step up tomorrow or the ease in the ground. Jalaa, a 200,000gns half-brother to Dewhurst winner Intense Focus, made an encouraging start to his career with a fairly convincing victory at Leicester. Having tracked the strong travelling runner-up early on, he picked up well inside the final furlong to win with some authority. He´s a strong colt who very much looks the part, and he should handle the step up in trip although too much juice in the ground would be a concern. Tha’ir showed ability on his debut at Ripon and returned to the Yorkshire track when winning next time. Having jumped well, he made all of the running to win with plenty in hand despite drifting to his right in the closing stages. This Derby entry isn’t the biggest of colts but he should be very effective over this extra furlong and just as important, he should handle the ground. The dark horse of the race could prove to be Frege who made a very encouraging debut at Lingfield. Brian Meehan’s filly was handed the dreaded stall 1 and probably did too much too early so did well to stick on for 4th. As with all of Meehan’s 2yos, she will come on for the run and at what is likely to be a decent price, she could be worth a small each-way bet. 3.05 – Hardwicke Stakes (Group 2) 10 of the last 12 winners had achieved a top three finish on their latest start 8 of the last 12 winners had already won a Group race over 1m4f No female winner since 1983 Mark Johnston (4) and Sir Michael Stoute (3) are the leading trainers since 1999 As 4yos have won the last 4 renewals and given Sir Michael Stoute’s record in the race, a good case can be made for Sea Moon who got back to winning ways at Goodwood on his reappearance. I liked this colt a lot last season and had him ante-post for the St Leger so I was thrilled when he won the Great Voltigeur in such fine style given that he was a late maturer. He proved then that he handles cut in the ground and in my opinion 12f is his ideal trip. I considered him slightly unlucky at Doncaster and he then ran a fine race behind St Nicholas Abbey in Breeders’ Cup Turf. He looked the sort to improve from 3 to 4 and that looked evident at Goodwood last time. He does face some stiff opposition here, none more so than from Aiken who remains unbeaten since June 2011; winning all of his 6 starts. The trip and ground look ideal for John Gosden’s colt and judged on the ease of his recent course and distance win last month and his Gr2 victory in France at the start of June, he must rank a serious danger if improving again. Red Cadeaux never fails to disappoint whilst Masked Marvel could be dangerous if recapturing his St leger form but the 3rd place on the shortlist has to go to MEMPHIS TENNESSEE who represents last year’s winning trainer. With O’Brien having such a wealth of talent at his disposal it is easy to forget that this colt was beaten less than 2L in the Derby and the same distance in the Irish equivalent. He very much looked the sort to improve with a winter on his back and he did look more mature when winning a weak looking Ormonde Stakes at Chester’s May Meeting. Stamina looks the key to him and I can see him staying on well when others are crying enough in the testing conditions. 3.50 – Golden Jubilee Stakes (Group 1) All of the last 12 winners were male All of the last 12 winners had already run that season 10 of the last 12 winners had won over 6f in Listed class of higher 9 of the last 12 winners were trained in the UK (1 Ireland, 1 Hong Kong, 1 Australia) All of the last 11 outright favourites were beaten (Starspangledbanner was Jt favourite) 8 winners priced in double figures (10, 12, 16, 20×2, 25, 33×2) This is a really tough race to weigh up from a trends point of view. Everything I have seen and heard of BLACK CAVIAR tells me that she is by far the most obvious winner but the trends don’t necessarily back that up. But then again she isn’t your average filly. I have seen a fair bit of the footage of her races in Australia and I don’t think I have ever seen her come off the bridle. She is a bit like Frankel in that when others are hard at work, she keeps on finding more but without any real effort. You can make a case saying that the soft ground combined with travelling halfway round the world is enough to take her on but I have always beleived that top-class horses can overcome any obstacle. So, if she is such a good thing we are looking at the place or each-way market. 3yos have won 2 of the last 4 renewals but I don’t think those from this age group this year are Gr1 level yet so I am prepared to overlook them. Freddy Head’s filly Moonlight Cloud is arguably the biggest challenger as she has some solid form against Gr1 winners already in the bag. She does look to be more of a 7f filly and on fast ground I would be concerned that they will go too quick for her. But on rain-softened ground this should allow her stamina to come through and I can see her staying on strongly at the finish. Krypton Factor would have probably made it onto the short list as he does look a big price for a Gr1 winner but I cannot see him handling the ground as all of his better efforts for Sir Mark Prescott came on a sounder surface. Last year’s winner Society Rock will go on the ground and still looks a generous price at 12-1. He is possibly the pick from a trends perspective and it is fair to say that he has been mapped out for this race for some time. His half a length defeat by Tiddliwinks, who won again since, should have him spot on and he can go close. 4.25 – Wokingham Stakes (Heritage Handicap) All of the last 12 winners were officially rated 95 or higher 12 of the last 13 winners were aged four or five 12 of the last 13 winners had raced no more than 4 times that season 12 of the last 14 winners achieved a top four finish last time 12 of the last 14 winners were drawn no more than 7 stalls from either rail 9 of the last 14 winners had raced within the last 30 days 9 of the last 12 winners came from the first 4 in the betting None of the runners tomorrow tick every box. One of the stronger candidates is King Of Jazz who has made a decent start this season for new connections. He wasn’t beaten all that far on his reappearance at Doncaster in April and showed that he has some stamina in his locker when 3rd again behind Global Village in the 7f Victoria Cup. He does seem to appreciate a slightly easier surface and so he is entitled to run well back over 6f and from a handy draw in stall 27. Drawn next to him is Pabusar and he too has ticks in many of the right boxes even though he is available at 40-1. He was unlucky to just get run out of it by Palace Moon at Newbury last month and hopefully he can kick on from this after a bit of a hit or miss career so far. Maarek has a big weight to carry but he has just kept on progressing this season. The trip and ground will be ideal and if he can win this off 9st 10lb he will surely move up to Pattern company next time. But a personal preference is for ALBEN STAR who has been so progressive this year on the AW. He chased home Maarek at Newmarket’s Guineas Meeting when he finished 5th, beaten less than 3L, but he is 6lb better of with that rival tomorrow. Richard Fahey knows how to ready one for a big race like this and all indications are that is exactly what he has done with this Coldovil gelding. 5.00 – Duke Of Edinburgh Handicap All of the last 12 favourites were beaten; 8 priced in double figures (10×2, 11, 12,14×2, 16, 28) All of the last 12 winners were aged four or five (4yo – 8, 5yo – 4) 8 of the last 12 winners achieved a top 3 finish last time; 5 had won Only 2 of the last 12 winners were officially rated 100 or higher Mark Johnston (3), Hughie Morrison (2) & Sir Michael Stoute (2) are the leading trainers since 2000 CAMBORNE was very easy on the eye when winning at Doncaster earlier this month and even though the handicapper has put him up 13lb he looks the sort that can carry on progressing after just 5 starts. The step up to 1m4f seemed to bring the very best out of this Doyen gelding and with the ground just about looking ideal he should run a very big race. Mark Johnston proved on Thursday that he is a trainer to be reckoned with over middle-distances at Royal Ascot and he runs 3 here which all look pretty evenly matched. Eternal Heart has been running over a variety of trips but 3 of his 4 wins have come over 1m4f. He is entitled to be involved here but the ground would be a slight worry of it gets too soft. Therefore, Ithoughtitwasover might provide his best chance in the race as he does have soft ground winning form over 1m4f. On the face of it, he could be deemed to be a few pounds too high in the handicap but don’t let that fool you as Johnston’s horses can often improve again at a big meeting. Anatolian reversed the form with him at Newmarket last time when he was narrowly beaten by High Jinx. After a progressive season last year, Godolphin’s colt seems to be going the right way and if he can carry on in that vein it would be no surprise to see him back to winning ways. John Hammond doesn’t travel his horses unnecessarily and so the chances of Hammerfest have to be taken seriously. There is no doubt that he will handle any amount of cut in the ground and therefore could run a very big race if building on his Saint-Cloud victory last month. 5.35 – Queen Alexandra Stakes 10 of the last 12 winners were aged four to six (4yo – 3, 5yo – 4, 6yo – 3) 10 of the last 12 winners had won over 14f (including hurdles) 9 of the last 12 winners were sent off at 7/1 or lower; 4 were favourite 6 of the last 12 winners were officially rated 100 or higher Fallon and Murtagh have each won this race twice in the last 10 years So here we are, the final race of Royal Ascot 2012. Overturn is without doubt the classiest runner on show and barring any mishaps, he must surely go very close. He will handle and ease in the ground but interestingly this will be the furthest he has ever raced over, amazing when you think that he is also a top-class hurdler. Tuesday’s Ascot Stakes winner Simenon must also be a consideration of he is allowed to take part as Baddam showed us in 2006 that it is possible to do the Royal double. But it might be worth taking a chance on the recent York winner CLOUDY SPIRIT who has stamina in abundance having won over 3m under NH rules. He stamina certainly came into play when she beat Dark Ranger at York and with this being a conditions race her 10lb hike up the weights doesn’t come into play. Zuider Zee is a classy horse over 2m as shown when he was only beaten 3L by Opinion Poll in the Henry II Stakes. He does handle some cut but he is very much an unknown over the trip.

[Royal Ascot Day 4 ~ Friday 22nd June]

Re: Royal Ascot Day 4 ~ Friday 22nd June 2.30 – Albany Stakes (Group 3) Mick Channon has trained 3 of the last 9 winners; Richard Hannon & Jeremy Noseda 2 Only 3 of the last 10 winners had previously won over 6f 6 of the last 10 winners had been making their second start; the remainder their third 6 of the last 10 winners were successful last time 2 of the last 10 winners had been favourite but there has been 6 winners between 10/1 & 50/1 The 2yo races at this year’s Royal meeting aren’t getting any easier with 19 runners set to go to post in the Albany, won last year by Mick Channon’s Samitar. So his runner this year, Sandreamer is as good a starting point as any, particularly as she was so impressive when winning a decent looking Newmarket maiden. The runner-up and 4th horses that day both won next time out so the form does have a strong look to it. There wasn’t much pace in the race but she picked up in the shape of a smart filly 2f out to quickly put the race to bed. Ed Dunlop won this race in 2009 and so his recent Yarmouth winner Amazonas warrants respect. Her dam was a 6f juvenile winner and she looked to have inherited her mother’s speed. When asked to quicken up and go and win her race she did it in a thoroughly professional manner, looking as if she had more to offer if asked the question. It was only a ordinary maiden at Pontefract but Agent Allison produced a very likeable performance when winning by 7L. Apparently, she had been working very well at home and that was evident as she stretched clear in the style of a useful filly, even though she was conceding weight to each of her 9 rivals. She handled the soft ground well that day but connections feel she would be even better on a sounder surface. But there was also a lot to like about the performance of NEWFANGLED who overturned a well-backed favourite over 6f at Newmarket a fortnight ago. Thoroughly professional, she jumped well, travelled smoothly throughout before going to win her race under nothing more than a hands and heels ride from William Buick. Dawn Approach gave New Approach his first Royal winner earlier in the week and Princess Haya’s filly could give him his second. 3.05 – King Edward VII Stakes (Group 2) 10 of the last 12 winners had yet to win over 1m4f 10 of the last 12 winners had won earlier in the season 9 of the last 12 winners had run in a Derby Trial; 3 had won Only 3 of the last 12 winners had won at Listed or Group level Only 2 of the last 12 winners had run in the Derby The Ascot Derby is a consolation race for those animals which were unable to make it to Epsom or perhaps weren’t considered good enough for the big one. The trends suggest that those horses which ran well in defeat in the Derby normally struggle here. If that proves to be the case again, Astrology and Thought Worthy are opposable. That is a tough call to make as both ran well, finishing 3rd and 4th respectively at Epsom. Many will be jumping on the NOBLE MISSION bandwagon as he has looked the type to appreciate the step up in trip. Frankel’s full-brother started the season well with a simple maiden victory before following up in workmanlike style in the Listed Newmarket Stakes. A fortnight later he returned to Newmarket for the King Charles II Stakes which produced a thrilling finish with a blanket covering the first four, Thought Worthy, Noble Mission, Rugged Cross and Farhaan. Of course, that race is over 2f shorter than this race tomorrow so there is no guarantee that the form will be upheld. Purely on form, Thought Worthy looks to be John Gosden’s best chance yet William Buick rides the recent maiden winner Shantaram. That is perhaps a tad unfair to call him a just a maiden winner as prior to that he had run Main Sequence to under 1L in the Lingfield Derby Trial and prior to that only been beaten a nose by Model Pupil in a Newmarket maiden. He will undoubtedly get further as the season wears on and that may see him in with a shout here. The one worry is the ground. He hated the soft ground when winning his maiden and with the amount of rain around at the moment, it might just be too soft for him tomorrow. So, overall I am a fan of Thought Worthy but as no placed horse from Epsom has won this race for three decades I am prepared to side with the horse he narrowly beat at Newmarket . 3.50 – Coronation Stakes (Group 1) All of the last 12 winners had run in at least one 1000 Guineas 7 of the last 12 winners had won a race as a three-year-old 7 of the last 12 winners were sent off favourite; all in the top four 5 of the last 12 winners had been successful last time out The consensus did appear to be that Homecoming Queen’s 1000 Guineas win was a bit of a fluke and so it proved when she was beaten 7L when only 4th in the Irish equivalent. The ground was markedly quicker at the Curragh and it looks like she needs plenty of cut to be seen at her best. If it keeps raining, she might just get it. Samitar was the filly to benefit at the Curragh. She had enjoyed a good juvenile season but just came up short when it mattered. She started this year with 2 front-running defeats in a sales race at Newmarket and then in the French 1,000 Guineas. She seemed to appreciate not only the quicker ground at the Curragh but also being ridden more patiently as she ran out a convincing winner. My initial thoughts were that the form was a little suspect with the runner-up going off at 33-1 and the 3rd-placed horse 25-1 but I am not so sure now after Ishvana beat the colts in Wednesday’s Jersey. If she gets good ground or quicker she should go close. But Mick Channon also has LAUGH OUT LOUD in the race. She improved in leaps and bounds on her first 3 starts on the AW before running okay in the 1000 Guineas, perhaps a little too keen for her win good. She had been used to running at Wolverhampton and Kempton and Newmarket’s expanse can sometimes do that to a lightly-raced filly. She made no mistake when beating Electrelane in the Michael Seely at York and the runner-up franked the form when winning the German 1,000 Guineas, although she did let it down with a very below par effort in Wednesday’s Sandringham. Channon’s filly looked even more impressive in winning the Gr2 Prix Sandringham at Chantilly, proving that she can handle some cut although there can be little doubt that she is a better filly on a faster surface. The dark-horse could be Fallen For You, who on a line through Lyric Of Light last season doesn’t have a lot to find with Samitar. She won on her reappearance as she was expected to at Kempton at the start of May but then ran no sort of a race when only 6th behind Chachamaidee in a Lingfield Gr3. However, she was taking on older and much more experienced fillies that day and that may have had a little to do with it, likewise the drop down to 7f as they did go a good gallop. This does require a big improvement from Gosden’s filly but William Buick must think she is capable of it otherwise he could have ridden Starscope who was runner-up in the 1000 Guineas. 4.25 – Wolferton Handicap (Listed) 10 of the last 12 winners had not raced more than twice that season 10 of the last 12 winners were 4yos ; one 5yo, one 7yo Only 1 winning favourite in the last 11 years; 7 between 10/1 & 25/1 Sir Michael Stoute & the late Michael Jarvis have both won 2 renewals since 2004 Beachfire defends the title that he won last year but Gatewood looks to be Gosden’s best hope of back-to-backs victories. After a decent season last term, he absolutely sloshed up in a competitive York handicap on his reappearance and confirmed that was no fluke when following up at Epsom on Oaks Day. He is now 12lb higher than when recording the first of those wins but he has looked a very progressive colt, who is probably Listed class at worst. The only slight downside is that I can see him being sent off favourite and favourites don’t have the best of records in this race. The interesting runner is Roger Varian’s MIJHAAR who doesn’t have many miles on the clock and it is possible that we haven’t seen the best of him. He won his maiden last season in very impressive fashion before finishing a respectable 4th behind Nathaniel in the King Edward VII Stakes here. He followed that with a narrow defeat back over 10f at Newmarket and that was it for the season. He made his reappearance over a mile in the Listed Hambleton Stakes at York when he wasn’t beaten far in 3rd behind Fury and Prince Of Johanne who franked the form here on Wednesday. That effort will have taken some of the fizz out of him so there should me much more to come tomorrow when he is upped in trip. French Navy looked a very progressive colt when winning at Newmarket and Goodwood last season but then failed to build on that when beaten in the Prix Dollar and St Simon Stakes. Ten furlongs does look to be his ideal trip, especially on rain-softened ground, so it wouldn’t surprise to see him bounce back. Qaraaba has done nothing but improve this season and know finds herself 25lb higher than when winning at Kempton in March. Quite how much further she can improve is open to debate but there can be little doubt that she will be suited to the trip and ground. The American horse Hyper has some impressive form figures, winning each of his last 5 starts. I can’t claim to know much about him but all of his wins in the states have come on firm ground so his chance won’t be helped if it keeps raining. 5.00 – Queen’s Vase (Group 3) 10 of the last 12 winners had made six starts or less 10 of the last 12 winners achieved a top three finish last time An official rating of 96 is a minimum requirement; 8 rated 100+ 10 of the last 12 winners came from the first three in the betting 9 of the last 12 winners had been successful as juveniles Mark Johnston has won 6 of the last 11 renewals: Saeed bin Suroor & Aidan O’Brien 2 each 3 of the last 12 winners had run in the Lingfield Derby Trial What is the world coming to? The Queen’s Vase without a Mark Johnston-trained runner in the line up. It is probably fair to say that Athens isn’t near the top of the pecking order at Ballydoyle but he has some respectable form in the bag, beaten by some decent animals (Rugged Cross, Akeed Mofeed & David Livingston) as a juvenile and he hasn’t fared too badly this term. He ran okay behind Light Heavy and ran into a potentially very smart filly, Speaking Of Which, at the Curragh last time. As with all of the runners tomorrow, we have no idea on whether he will get this 2m trip but on breeding, he has a chance. But a slight preference is for MINIMISE RISK who is a half-brother to the Mark Johnston trained Darasim, who won the Gr2 Goodwood Cup and was well at home over marathon distances. Andrew Balding’s colt made a pleasing debut at Doncaster before surviving a stewards’ enquiry at Newbury next time. He then ran pretty flat in the Chester Vase, the very soft ground being the excuse. He did go to Epsom for the Derby, where I thought he ran okay. He didn’t really handle the track but stuck to the task nicely enough without really being knocked around by Jamie Spencer. As long as the ground isn’t too soft, this Galileo colt should relish the step up in trip and could therefore take plenty of beating. Sir Michael Stoute had a terrible season last year by his high standards but his horses do seem to be getting back on track this term. Estimate finished down the field behind Esentepe on her sole start last season but was off the mark on her reappearance at Salisbury in fine style. The step up to 1m4f was clearly needed as she stayed on strongly for a comfortable success. She looked that day as if she would get further and her pedigree supports that, being by Monsun out of a Darshaan mare and a half-sister to a quintet of classy stayers which includes Enzeli, Ebadiyla and Edabiya. Gut feelings can be a dangerous thing, but I can’t help but think the Queen will have a winner at the Royal Meeting in her Diamond Jubilee year and this filly might just be the one to do it. 5.35 – Buckingham Palace Handicap No winning favourites in 11 years; 8/1 the shortest priced winner 5 of the last 10 winners were aged four or five 7 of the last 10 winners had yet to win a race that season 5 of the last 10 winners were officially rated 92 or less A 30-runner handicap isn’t the easiest ‘get out stakes’ particularly when it is one of the weaker races from a trends point of view. There are a whole host of these that are capable of landing this prize, none more so that PRIMAEVAL. Fanshawe normally chips in which a winner or two at Royal Ascot and this Pivotal gelding will surely be there or thereabouts. Personally, I think he is a real 7f specialist and one that isn’t too badly handicapped despite winning his last 2 starts. He has won at Kempton off 99 & 100 in the recent past but back on turf he was only rated 92 ahead of his easy victory at Goodwood. The handicapper has put him up to 100, which is obviously still a winning mark. I would never go overboard in a race like this as anything can happen in running but I think he could quite easily be much better than a handicapper. Global Village will surely serve it up to him after he won the Victory Cup over course and distance last month. Brian Ellison’s gelding didn’t make the racecourse until he was 4 but he has gradually progressed into a nice 7f type. He was considered a bit of an AW specialist as 8 of his 10 wins have come on polytrack or fibresand but I think the fact that in the last couple of months he has won on the turf at Leicester and Ascot mean that can no longer be the case. The course and distance winning Lightning Cloud proved highly progressive last season and picked up where he left off in the Victoria Cup, beaten just over 3L in 5th. It was a solid reappearance and if he can build on that, off the same mark, he has to be given every chance. Tariq Too showed plenty of promise when finishing 9th in the Victoria Cup and he confirmed that when a well-supported winner at Doncaster 13 days ago. The handicapper has put him up 7lb as a result but he has looked very progressive this season and so it may not be enough to stop him running a big race. Noble Citizen isn’t the easiest horse to win with but he ran okay at Goodwood last time behind Primaeval and could run into the minor places at a decent price.

[Royal Ascot Day 3 ~ Thursday 21st June]

Re: Royal Ascot Day 3 ~ Thursday 21st June 2.30 – Norfolk Stakes (Group 2) Excluding the 2010 winner Approve, each of the previous 11 winners had been successful last time out; often at smaller tracks 9 of the last 12 winners hadn’t raced over further than 5f 9 of the last 12 winners started at 6-1 or shorter 8 of the last 12 winners were making only their 2nd or 3rd start Although there are only 12 runners in this years Norfolk, unlike the Coventry and Queen Mary which both attracted huge fields, it is arguably the most competitive 2yo race so far. CAY VERDE wouldn’t be the strongest trends pick as he has already raced 3 times but there has been a lot to like about him so far this season. After an acceptable debut at Newbury, he absolutely hosed up over course and distance and the form of that race has worked out nicely as the runner-up Hototo, won at Ayr next time before winning Tuesday’s Windsor Castle. Channon’s colt went onto produce an equally impressive performance when winning the Marble Hill Stakes at the Curragh. Richard Hughes took the ride that day and it would be fair to say that although they didn’t hang around, he only had to get low in the saddled to drive this colt out for a comfortable victory. The runner-up, Dylanbaru has also franked the form when beaten only a length in Tuesday’s Windsor Castle. But this isn’t the foregone conclusion that it might sound as there are some serious rivals in opposition. Reckless Abandon looked a very promising colt when winning on his debut at Doncaster, in fact he earned the best speed figures on the card when powering home last month, which is no mean feat for a juvenile on his debut. Annunciation was 2L behind him on Town Moor but put that experience to good use when he ran out a 6L winner at Windsor next time. That suggests that there is little to separate them. Hannon’s second string, Mister Marc is no mug having won well on his debut at Goodwood and then chased home Dawn Approach, yesterday’s Coventry winner, in a Listed contest at Naas. Ahern powered clear on his debut at Musselburgh in a race that Frederick Engels won last year before his Windsor Castle success and earlier winners all went onto place in either the Norfolk or the Queen Mary. He was a little green early on but when the penny dropped he showed a dazzling turn of foot to win a shade cosily. Others for consideration include Gale Force Ten and Morawij. Whatever the outcome, this looks a race that could have reverberations throughout the season. 3.05 – Ribblesdale Stakes (Group 2) 9 of the last 12 winners had raced no more than three times as a juvenile 9 of the last 12 winners had won over at least 1m2f 8 of the last 12 winners achieved a top two finish last time (6 were winners) 3 of the last 12 winners had run in the Oaks Two winning favourites and 1 joint favourite in the last decade Saeed Bin Suroor has won the 3 times since 2004 Strictly on a line through the Oaks form a strong case could be argued for PRINCESS HIGHWAY who staked her claim by beating the Oaks winner Was in the Blue Wind Stakes at Naas in May. Always traveling well, she looked in total control a furlong out and stuck gamely to the task in hand when running out a 1L winner. Prior to her victory at Naas, she had beaten a good yardstick in Betterbetterbetter in a Leopardstown maiden. Although she wasn’t entered in the Oaks, Weld suggested at Naas that she wouldn’t take in the Irish1,000 Guineas or Oaks, instead eyeing a trip to Royal Ascot for the Ribblesdale, a race he won with Princess Highway’s dam Irresistible Jewel back in 2002. In fact, to quote the legendary Irish trainer, he said: “I think the logical progression will be to go for the Ribblesdale now. This filly is a late-maturing type and I think waiting for Royal Ascot is the prudent way to go. She will learn from today and I think as the year progresses, she will definitely be a Group One filly.” Although Shirocco Star finished one place ahead of The Fugue in the Oaks, John Gosden’s filly was the one to take out of the race as she didn’t have the easiest of passages, so did well to stay on for 3rd. She had looked awesome when winning the Musidora the time before and can bounce back tomorrow with a big run. Momentary ran well on her debut at Newbury in April and put that experience to good use when winning the Swettenham Stud Fillies’ Trial, beating Shirocco Star a short-head in the process. That form has worded out nicely and although she will need to make another step-up, she does look the sort to be open to further improvement. 3.50 – Gold Cup (Group 1) All of the last 12 winners were male 10 of the last 12 winners came from the first four in the betting (6 favourites) 11 of the last 12 winners had already run that season over 1m6f+ (including NH) 9 of the last 12 winners had won a Group race over 2m+ 10 of the last 12 winners were aged between four and six (Yeats recorded the other two) 7 of the last 12 winners had won last time out The trends surrounding the Gold Cup are skewed somewhat due to Yeats’ recent dominance and further back in time the multiple winners Sadeem, Drum Taps and Royal Rebel. Even so, all know facts suggest that FAME AND GLORY should record his second win in the race. He looked as good as ever when winning the Vintage Crop Stakes on his reappearance and no doubt O’Brien had still left a bit to work on. On all know form last season, he does look to hold Opinion Poll although Godolphin’s runner does look to have improved over the winter, firstly when winning in Dubai on World Cup night, and again when winning the Henry II Stakes at Sandown last month. Godolphin also have a likely candidate in the shape of Colour Vision who progressed significantly last season when with Mark Johnston. Third in the Cesarewitch, which is no mean feat for a 3yo, he then ran Fame And Glory to just over a length on Champion’s Day. He looked to have wintered well when making his reappearance at Kempton when he handed Red Cadeaux a 1 1/2L beating and Ed Dunlop’s runner then franked the form by winning the Yorkshire Cup before finishing runner-up in the Coronation Cup at Epsom. The O’Brien horse does look the most likely winner but a small bet on Colour Vision wouldn’t look out of place if he can keep on improving this season. Saddler’s Rock is another 4yo that should progress this year if his defeat of Opinion Poll in last season’s Yorkshire Cup is anything to go by. He did suffer a minor set-back in the spring which delayed his comeback until 8th June when he finished runner-up in the Saval Beg Stakes at Leopardstown. John Oxx said beforehand that he would need to race and also expressed doubts about the testing conditions so he must have been pleased to see him travel nicely throughout before staying on well through the closing stages. He will be sharper for the experience and as long as the heavens don’t open, he looks sure to run a big race. 4.25 – Britannia Stakes (Heritage Handicap) 17 of the last 21 winners had not run in more than two handicaps 10 of the last 13 winners had achieved a top 3 finish last time 7 of the last 13 winners had raced five times or less 9 of the last 13 winners were officially rated between 90 and 100 5 of the last 8 winners had been drawn in stall 4 or lower James Fanshawe and John Gosden are trainers to follow The Britannia usually goes the way of a lightly raced and unexposed runner and FOREST ROW fits the bill nicely. A half-brother to Presvis, he was well-supported ahead of his debut at Newbury in May last year and ran an okay race to finish 5th. He then suffered a set-back with kept him off the track until October when he was again well-backed but ultimately failed to live up to expectations. He made no mistake on his reappearance back at Newbury when he won with plenty of authority, having travelled well and then finding plenty on the run to the line. Being gelded over the winter obviously helped and he looks the sort that can go on improving this season in handicaps off his current mark of 88. Born To Surprise fits a similar mould. Runner-up on his sole start at two, he looked very impressive when winning a Doncaster maiden at the Lincoln meeting. After that victory he was touted as a possible Guineas horse but a lack-lustre performance in the Craven soon put paid to that. He is undoubtedly better than that showing and he looks an interesting runner here off a mark of 92. Fast Or Free looked a bit weak on his sole juvenile start but he seemed to have matured when winning on his reappearance at Kempton in May. That earned him a mark of 80 but he had no trouble following up in a competitive Newmarket handicap 12 days ago. He has showed a really likeable attitude on his 2 starts this season and a revised mark of 87 might not be enough to stop his progressing further. Kahruman run into a nice type in Wrotham Heath on his sole start last season but had no trouble getting off the mark at Kempton on his reappearance. He followed that with a solid performance when 4th in the Listed Heron Stakes at Sandown next time when he was conceding experience to many of his rivals. His showed good battling qualities that day which he will need to do again as the handicapper has shown no mercy giving him a rating of 98. 5.00 – Tercentenary Stakes (Formerly the Hampton Court Stakes (Listed)) 3 winning favourites in the last 11 years Only 1 winner in the last decade has carried a penalty 8 of the last 12 winners achieved a top three finish last time 4 of the last 12 winners had ran in the Dante Stakes Wrotham Heath looks to be Sir Henry Cecil’s number one string based on jockey bookings even though he is 13lb inferior to Stipulate going into the race. But, having said that he was a very impressive winner on the Derby card and does hold an entry in the Irish Derby. He had looked a Derby contender after winning his maiden at two but ran into a nice horse on his reappearance at Newbury and then looked a non-stayer hen stepped up to 1m4f at Newmarket next time. Back down in trip he won a shade more cosily that the official margin suggests at Epsom and he therefore looks to have plenty to offer tomorrow. Also in the Khalid Abdulla colours is Starboard who looked a bright prospect when slamming his rivals at Redcar on only his second start last season. He flopped when odds-on in a 3-runner affair at Newmarket on his reappearance but looked much better when stepped up to 10f at Doncaster next time. He could have gone down the King Edward VII route but connections have opted to keep him at 1m2f for the moment, no doubt with one eye on his Eclipse entry. Most Improved bounced back to win the St James’s Palace on Tuesday and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see TALES OF GRIMM run a big race tomorrow. An impressive maiden winner on his sole start at two when he had the decent Firdaws and the ill-fated The Nile in second and third, he had been touted as a possible 2000 Guineas winner in the spring. But he didn’t make his comeback until the end of May when he ran an encouraging race to finish 3rd to Cogito in the Listed Heron Stakes at Sandown; 2L behind Stipulate. He looked plenty fresh enough that day and Ryan Moore had to settle him right at the back of the field. Once asked for an effort he picked up nicely, staying on well to grab 3rd place. That should have knocked the edge off him and assuming he settled better, he is entitled to go close. 5.35 – King George V Stakes (Handicap) Mark Johnston and Sir Michael Stoute have each won 3 of the last 11 renewals Only 2 winning favourites in the last 11 years (shortest priced winner 9/2) 11 of the last 12 winners achieved a top three finish last time 10 of the last 12 winners were officially rated at least 87 None of the last 10 winners carried more than 8st 13lb 10 of the last 12 winners had won at least once earlier in the season Fennell Bay beat his older rivals at Sandown on Saturday but a mile looks to be more like his trip and therefore Prussian might prove the better of the 2 Johnston runners. This tough Dubai Destination filly was progressing nicely this year, winning her first 2 starts before a lack-lustre effort on soft ground at Nottingham. That left everyone scratching their heads but she bounced back to form with another strong performance when winning at Redcar earlier this month. She is also untried over the trip but has looked as if she would get it and therefore has to come into consideration for a trainer that has such a good record in the race. Another apparent second string, Pilgrims Rest is another that looks to have strong credentials. Richard Hughes rode him when winning on his reappearance at Newbury and again when winning at Leicester later that month. He is 12lb higher tomorrow than when recording the first of those 2 victories but quite why Hughes has got off to ride Rougemont who has 9st 7lb is a bit of a mystery to me. Gabrial The Great looked a nice colt when winning easily on his reappearance at Newcastle in April. He stepped up on that next time when chasing home the potentially very smart Rosslyn Castle as Chester’s May meeting. The trip won’t hold and concerns for this son of Montjeu although it remains to be seen if he will be as effective on a faster surface. ANOMOLY produced 2 solid efforts last season before making a very eye-catching reappearance at Nottingham last month. Very nicely bred, this Pivotal colt made all for a thoroughly convincing victory which had connections thinking of the Derby at the time. That would have been a very big ask for a maiden winner but this does look much more sensible as he looks to have a bright future stating from a mark of 93

[Royal Ascot Day 2 ~ Wednesday 20th June]

Re: Royal Ascot Day 2 ~ Wednesday 20th June my bets for day 2 @ royal ascot Wednesday 20th June 2.30 – Jersey Stakes (Group 3) Each of the last 10 favourites have been beaten 9 of the last 12 winners were officially rated between 106 & 113 8 of the last 12 winners achieved a top two finish on their previous start 8 of the last 12 winners had already won that season Only 2 of the last 12 winners carried a penalty Last year’s Jersey Stakes attracted 9 runners yet for some reason this year’s renewal sees 26 declared making it a much tougher proposition. However, official ratings should help as they are suggesting that most runners rated less than 106 can be opposed. I say most runners as I wouldn’t want to discount the 100-rated and twice-raced VALBCHEK on that basis alone. You may remember that Johnny Murtagh went all the way to Lingfield for just one ride when he won on his debut with consummate ease. He then stepped up on that under Ryan Moore to win a competitive and valuable sales race at Newmarket’s Craven meeting. After the race, Noseda was quoted: “I had half a mind he could be a Jersey horse and Ryan said he was a 6f horse who might get a bit further.” Moore is back on board tomorrow and with the number of runners in the race one would assume that he had his pick of rides and therefore thinks that he has the ability to handle the extra furlong. Johnny Murtagh has an interesting ride in the shape of Sentaril who is also unbeaten from 2 starts. She looked a very smart filly in the making when slamming her rivals on her debut at Newbury. She followed that in an equally impressive manner in a less than competitive, conditions race at Doncaster. She is already proven over the 7f trip and does have winning form with some juice in the ground but only one filly has won this race in the last decade. Aljamaaheer sits nicely with the trends and looks to have a decent chance of giving Roger Varian his first Royal Ascot winner. A winner on his sole start as a juvenile, he looked in need of the run on his reappearance at Newbury when he ran far too freshly for his own good. He missed his 2000 Guineas entry was gained compensation on the Rowley Mile when winning the King Charles II Stakes, usually a good pointer for the rest of the season. Those are my 3 for the shortlist but there are quite a few others that still qualify from a trends point of view. Others to consider include Reply, Laffan, Producer and Swiss Spirit. 3.05 – Windsor Forest Stakes (Group 2) Four-year-olds have won 6 of the 8 renewals 7 of the 8 winners had already won a Pattern race Sir Michael Stoute has won the race 3 times & James Fanshawe twice 7 of the 8 winners carried 8st 12lb 5 of the 8 winners had raced only once that season (1 on debut, 1 after two starts, 1 after four starts) 25% strike rate for favourites EMULOUS proved that she was as good as ever when winning on her reappearance in a Gr3 a the Curragh last month and quite rightly sits at the head of the betting. But herein lies one of the problems from a trends point of view. Favourites don’t have the best of records in this race and neither do fillies with a penalty. Add in the fact that 4yos have really ruled the roost and you will see the dilemma. But I am inclined to go against what the trends are telling us as she does look the most progressive filly in the race even at the age of 5. She was hugely impressive when making the step up into Gr1 company in the Matron Stakes and as Soviet Song showed us in 2006, top class fillies are capable of carrying a penalty. Nahrain, who was unbeaten in her first four starts last season until finding only one too good in the Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf, looks the obvious threat. On the downside, Roger Varian’s filly doesn’t have the benefit of having raced since her trip to the States and may just find the drop down to a mile on the sharp-side as she did look a 10f filly when winning the Prix de l’Opera. If the trends do prove correct, then the one to benefit could quite well be Henry Cecil’s Chachamaidee, who herself was rather progressive last season. Runner-up in last season race, she then won the Gr3 Oak Tree Stakes at Goodwood and ran well in defeat at Doncaster before pushing Sahpresa to 1L in the Sun Chariot. She looked to have wintered well after winning on her reappearance at Lingfield, showing her trademark sharp turn of foot, and therefore looks sure to run her race. 3.50 – Prince Of Wales’s Stakes (Group 1) 10 of the last 12 winners had previously won a Group 1 from 1m1f to 1m3f Four and five-year-olds have won each of the last 11 renewals 10 of the last 11 winners had won over 1m2f 8 of the last 12 winners had at least 1 of their last 2 starts outside of the UK 7 of the last 12 winners had won their previous start, including 4 of the last 5 3 of the last 5 winners were trained in France The way this year’s race is viewed very much depend on whether you are pro or anti So You Think. I am pretty sure that the bookies will be keen to get stuck into him after he was a beaten 4-11 favourite in this last year but lets looks at the facts. After his narrow defeat here by Rewilding, he won the Eclipse and Irish Champion Stakes. He was then beaten in the Arc and Champion Stakes before unsuccessful trips to the States and Dubai. He bounced back when slamming his rivals in the Tattersalls Gold Cup last month when he looked as good as ever. This all suggests that he can be found wanting in the very best Gr1s so it all depends on how competitive you feel tomorrow’s race is. Personally, I think there are one or two that can give him a race but overall it won’t be the strongest Gr1 run this year. On that basis, I can see him taking revenge although if he does, he will be only the 2nd 6yo winner of this race since 1979 following Muhtarram’s second victory in 1995 and for that reason he cannot be the number one trends pick. That honour is bestowed on PLANTEUR who has ticks in most of the right boxes and arrives here on the back of a strong performance when not beaten far in the Prix d’Ispahan last time. He is rarely far away at the highest level and the way he stays on strongly at the end of his races does suggest that a strong gallop on a stiff track like Ascot will bring out the best of him. Carlton House looked back to his best when winning at Sandown last time. The Dante winner was perhaps a shade unlucky to only finish 3rd in the Derby and ran okay in defeat in the Irish equivalent. He isn’t an ideal pick from a trends point of view but then again many of these have questions to answer. One horse that fails in every area if Farhh. To say that he has had a stop-start career is an understatement but we certainly haven’t seen the best of him from just 3 starts. He looked the proverbial Group horse in a handicap when winning a competitive 16 runner affair at Thirsk on his reappearance last month and is clearly much better than that. Whether he is up to Gr1 standard remains to be seen but he could worth a dabble each-way just to be sure, regardless of what the trends suggest. 4.25 – Royal Hunt Cup (Heritage Handicap) 11 of the last 12 winners were aged four or five Only one winning favourite in the last 12 years (9 came from the next 7 in the betting) 10 of the last 12 winners had already won over 1m 8 of the last 12 winners were officially rated between 95 and 105 5 of the last 12 winners had won their last start 9 of the last 11 winners were drawn close to either rail 8 of the last 10 winners had raced at least 8 times There are no shortage of options with plenty of the runners appearing to fit the bill, perhaps none more so than ARABIAN STAR. Andrew Balding’s ultra-tough gelding ticks practically all of the boxes although he is a few pounds lower than ideal but then again so was last year’s winner. He made steady progress up the handicapping ranks last season and just as importantly does stay further than a mile which is not a bad thing in the Royal Hunt Cup. He was an impressive winner on his reappearance at Newmarket last month and still clearly looks on the up so his rise of just 4lb doesn’t look to have put paid to his chances. Another that looks progressive is Edinburgh Knight who has been trained specifically for this race after finishing a close up 4th in the Lincoln. He beat Primaeval over 7f here on Champion’s Day before stepping up to win a 1m Listed race at Kempton next time. He is now on a career high mark but don’t let that fool you, he is still capable of going close tomorrow. Belgian Bill was only beaten three parts of a length in last year’s Britannia off a mark of 97 and he gets in here tomorrow only 2lb higher. On the whole he is a consistent sort who keeps tending to find one or two too good but if everything drops right for him, he looks more than capable with Fallon booked to ride. The form of the Spring Cup has worked out very well with the runner-up Fury winning a York Listed off a 5lb higher mark whilst the 3rd horse Global Village went onto win the Victoria Cup. That points to a big effort from the winner at Newbury, Captain Bertie. I changed my opinion of him after Newbury as the gelding operation does seem to have toughened him up. Other considerations include Boom And Bust, Cai Shen and Man Of Action. 5.00 – Queen Mary Stakes (Group 2) All of the last 12 winners had won at least once All of the last 12 winners achieved a top two finish last time (10 winners) 10 of the last 12 winners had previously race twice or les 2 outright winning favourites in the last decade and 2 joint favourites It is only day two but don’t the 2yo races seem far more competitive this year? There were 14 runners in the Queen Mary last year yet there are 27 tomorrow. A strict interpretation of the trends still leaves almost a dozen who qualify so it is quite feasible that your final shortlist is totally different to mine. I am going to put MIRONICA top of the pile for a couple of reasons. David Wachman, who won this race in 2005 with Damson, has had a particularly good start to the season and that included an eye-catching performance from this filly. She won very easily on her debut at Naas last month and although that came over 6f she looked as if 5f would suit her, particularly as she has plenty of speed in her pedigree. The form of that maiden hasn’t worked out too badly as the 4th-placed filly went onto finish just over 2L behind Cay Verde in the Marble Hill at the Curragh. Jadanna was a very convincing winner on her debut at Pontefract but reportedly suffered a set-back after that. So, her victory at Beverley last month was all the more impressive even though the bare form suggests that it was nothing special. Early on she got caught up in a three-way battle for the lead and therefore the fact that she was able to skip clear of her rivals over a furlong out, with the other two early leaders finishing 8th and 9th respectively, suggests that she is a talented filly. There should be plenty more to come as she gains experience and she can have a big say tomorrow. Right down the bottom of the card, Upward Spiral made a very pleasing debut when accounting for another of tomorrow’s runners, Jubilee Diamond, at Sandown last month. Tom Dascombe’s filly knew her job early on and cut out all of the running, staying on well, despite wandering around in the closing stages. Stable jockey Richard Kingscote retains the faith in the impressive Listed winner Ceiling Kitty but Johnny Murtagh isn’t a bad stand-in. Other that could have been included are Belle Intrigue, Hairy Rocket, Madam Mojito, Miss Diva, Projectisle, Satsuma and Sharaarah. 5.35 – Sandringham Stakes (Listed) Only 1 winning outright favourite in the last decade (1 co-favourite) 8 of the last 12 winners were officially rated 95 of higher 8 of the last 12 winners achieved a top 3 finish on their most recent start (5 winners) The Sandringham is one of the weaker trends races at the Royal Meeting and therefore it is probably best not to get too caught up on them. The Listed Michael Seely Memorial Stakes, run at York last month, could prove a good angle into the race. Won so impressively by Laugh Out Loud who has since gone on to easily win a Gr2 in France, the runner-up, 3rd and 4th all line up here tomorrow. ELECTRELANE fared best of that trio finishing 1L behind the winner. She has since franked the form by winning the Gr2 German 1,000 Guineas and could easily go close. However, the fact that she is up 17lb in the handicap combined with the fact that the drying ground will be against her does temper the enthusiasm to smash into Ralph Beckett’s filly. Hello Glory had a respectable juvenile season and ran a sound enough race to finish 3rd at York. She was beaten 10L by Electrelane so does have plenty to find but she is 13lb better off tomorrow. If Dettori can get Pimpernel to settle better she could have the class to get involved in the finish. Runner-up in the Rockfel before winning the Radley Sakes, this filly was very disappointing out in Dubai this winter. Outclassed by stable-mate Gamilati in the UAE 1,000 Guineas when she didn’t settle well but kept on well for second, she then refused to drop her head in the UAE Oaks throwing away any chance of winning. She wasn’t much better in the Nell Gwyn and therefore although she clearly possesses plenty of talent she is un-backable until that can be harnessed in a positive way. Falls Of Lora was an impressive winner of the UAE Oaks before being firmly put in her place in the UAE Derby but back against her own sex she should be competitive, after all she is the second top-rated filly in the race behind Devotion.