[Flat Racing 24th Winter Derby Day!]

Re: Flat Racing 24th Winter Derby Day! 3-25 lingfield junoob i fancy junoob in this he looked inpressive when he came from last to first in the trial for this race his record on polytrack reads 112141 and improves to 1121 when the blinkers are applied which they should be on saturday and with his low draw he should be bang there come the day

[Synchronised ~ Would you run him in the National?]

Re: Synchronised ~ Would you run him in the National? synchronsed would be the first horse to win both races since 1934 but not many try none have tryed since master oats finished 7th to royal athlete in 1995 four years before that garrison savannah gave it is all when second to seagram also gold cup winners have a wretched record when turned out again in there season of glory and only one horse of any race at cheltenham followed up in the national since 1961 so trends are against him id say

[Gambling Addiction and Me]

gambling, Addiction and Me: The Real Hustler tonight bbc 3 allready put up in another thread

[Best Bet Of The Day Tuesday 20th of March]

Re: Best Bet Of The Day Tuesday 20th of March 3-50 southwell - polurrian e/way this horse as been dissapointing in the runs its had so far but it the first time its run on the flat and on this surface and its intresting that connections have decided to go down this route,polurrian is well bred and it ran second in a bumper to no other than cinders and ashes and that horse won a big race at the cheltenham festival recently anyway as ive said its intresting that connections are going down this route and im prepaired to give the horse the benifit of the doubt polurrian 8/1 @ w/hills e/way

[Jump racing ~ Friday 16th March]

Re: Jump racing ~ Friday 16th March

my bets for day 4 at cheltenham [wishing every-one the best of luck for the last day] JCB TRIUMPH HURDLE Last season’s 1-2-3 all won on their most recent start thus extending the record of last-time-out winners from 16 of the last 18 (if you include Scolardy winning his final start only to be disqualified) so that is a strong statistic and would instantly put me off Arctic Reach, Countrywide Flame, Dodging Bullets, His Excellency, Hollow Tree, Mattoral, Sadler’s Risk, Shadow Catcher, Ut De Sivola and Wingtips as win only bets. Pearl Swan was disqualified from first place last time out so it would be very harsh to overlook him on that run as he did pass the post in front. There can be no question that this is a different race now to the one before the introduction of the Fred Winter Juvenile Handicap in 2005. For a start, all seven winners could be found in the first four in the betting, positions that are currently occupied by Sadlers Risk, Grumeti, Pearl Swan and Baby Mix though Shadow Catcher, Darroun or Balder Succes could force their way into one of those positions on the day. The last three winners were all French imports which is a positive for Baby Mix, Balder Succes, Darroun, Pearl Swan, Ut De Sivola and Urbain De Sivola though the latter never raced in France as such, but we can’t oppose horses for being off the track too long as all the declarations have a recent run to their name. Three of the last four winners had run no more than twice over hurdles compared to just one winner between 1988-2007 so, on that basis, Darroun, Dodging Bullets, Dysios, Sadlers Risk, Shadow Catcher, West Brit, Wing Tips and Pearl Swan can be given another tick. The last six winners were all rated 138+ by the BHA Handicapper. Those that fail on this rating stat (or should fail but don’t have an official rating yet but appear to be under that mark using collateral formlines) are Asaid, Dysios, His Excellency, Mattoral, West Brit and Wingtips. Flat race form is also important as the last 13 Triumph winners that had a Flat campaign ran over 1m4f at least once (Grumeti, Shadow Catcher and Hisaabaat are lacking in this respect of the leading fancies that raced on the Flat) which is not to be overlooked as this is essentially a test of stamina for a four-year-old. Seven of the last eight winners did not have their hurdling debut until at least December with four of those not running over timber until at least January. In fact, we never even saw the last two winners in Britain until they won the Adonis Hurdle three weeks before this race and that has been easily best the guide with as many as five of the last 12 winners going on to double up in the Triumph and that would probably have been six had Binocular not been re-routed at the last moment to the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle. Baby Mix beat Sadlers Risk in this year’s running. SHORT LIST BABY MIX PEARL SWAN DARROUN BALDER SUCCES CONCLUSION The current favourite, Sadlers Risk, was beaten last time out which is a serious negative for this race so he misses out on the short list despite being the top rated Flat horse in the race and having run in the best trial when second in the Adonis Hurdle to BABY MIX. As the winner of that trial, then Baby Mix is an obvious trends horses given that 5 of the last 12 Triumph winners won that Kempton Grade 2 race and he has winning course form to boot. PEARL SWAN represents Paul Nicholls who has won this race twice recently and, like Baby Mix, he is a French import and they have won the last three runnings. He is also lightly raced over hurdles like recent winners and arrives here off the back of passing the post in front in a relevant trial. DARROUN is another lightly-raced French import from a yard that has won this race before and can prove best of the Irish in their bid to record their first win in this contest in ten years though that last winner (Scolardy) was also trained by Willie Mullins. BALDER SUCCES is 4-4 this season and another French import and represents a yard with two wins, two seconds and a third in recent seasons so he makes up the short list. Grumeti, Hisaabaat and Shadow Catcher didn’t race over long enough distances on the Flat to be considered short list trends-based material. VINCENT O’BRIEN COUNTY HURDLE The key two guides have been the Betfair Hurdle at Newbury which has highlighted four winners on the last eight occasions when the race beat the weather and the boylesports.com Hurdle at Leopardstown which has featured four of the last nine Vincent O’Brien County Hurdle winners. Dealing with the Betfair Hurdle first won by Zarkandar, this year’s Newbury race had so much strength in depth featuring the winners of so many big handicap hurdles over two miles over the last two seasons that it is hard to imagine that there will be a stronger handicap hurdle run all season so it has to be taken very seriously as a County Hurdle guide. The second (Get Me Out Of Here) finished second in the Coral Cup on Wednesday. Contenders from the Betfair Hurdle are Raya Star (3rd), Olofi (5th), Sailors Warn (6th), Via Galilei (11th), Desert Cry (12th) and Alarazi (14th). Regards the boylesports.com Hurdle, this season the race carries a massive 100,000 euros bonus if the winner can also go on and land a race at the Cheltenham Festival which is what Citizenship will be attempting to achieve. Trained by Jessica Harrington who has won aCountyHurdlealready with Spirit Leader, Citizenship passed 13 horses in the home straight so the extra furlong and theCheltenhamhill should be ideal. Final Approach completed the Boylesports/County Hurdle double last season so there is a very recent precedent. Citizenship is the only horse of the 30 that lined up in that Leopardstown race to run in this year’s Vincent O’Brien County Hurdle. The 139-rated Final Approach broke a run of six successive years of winners being rated in the 128-135 bracket when he got the verdict in the tightest of finishes 12 months ago. The only horses in that bracket this year are Master Of Arts, Ted Spread, Ifyouletmefinish, Ingleby Spirit, Citizenship and Court In Session. If you fancy the top weight, or a horse just tucked in the top weight in the handicap, I would seriously think again as no County Hurdle winner has carried more than 11st 8lbs for 52 years and only one horse has carried more than 11st 8lbs even into the frame since 1979 which would put me off Starlcuk, Clerks Choice and Moon Dice. Willie Mullins’ Final Approach was a five-year-old when successful last season so he kept their terrific strike rate going extending their recent record to eight wins from the last 13 renewals from around just a fifth of the total runners in that period. Five-year-olds in this year’s line up are Sailors Warn, Local Hero, Plan A, Edgardo Sol, Magnifique Etoile, Ted Spread, Ifyouletmefinish and Ingleby Spirit. Irish-trained of course, last year’s winner was therefore giving their raiders their fifth Vincent O’Brien County Hurdle winner in the last nine years. The are eight-handed this year with Citizenship, Moon Dice, Dirar, Sailors Warn, The Bull Hayes, Plan A, Alderwood and Redera. Also note Paul Nicholls with his record in the last eight years of three winners and a second in one of the hottest handicap hurdles run all season and he runs Ted Spread and Edgardo Sol. Philip Hobbs is another trainer to respect in the County Hurdle with a record of two winners plus a second and three thirds from 19 runners since 1990 and he runs Snap Tie who has dropped to a mark of 137 having not run for 882 days having been rated 158 the last time we saw him over hurdles. Unlike the Coral Cup, a quiet season is certainly not the order of the day as 16 of the last 18 winners had run at least four times earlier in the campaign which is against Starluck, Clerks Choice, Dee Ee Williams, Local Hero, Snap Tie and Master Of Arts. SHORT LIST CITIZENSHIP IFYOULETMEFINISH TED SPREAD SAILORS WARN INGLEBY SPIRIT CONCLUSION Having won one the two key guides, being Irish-trained (and by a yard successful in the race before) and falling into the right official ratings bracket then CITIZENSHIP is the main trends pick. Judging by the way he finished strongly to win the Boylesports Hurdle, he should also love this stiff finish and extra furlong and connections will be relieved he has squeezed in by one place. IFYOULETMEFINISH could be best of the five-year-olds who have a very good record in this race as he arrives here off a win (always a plus for Festival handicap hurdles) and fits into that same ratings bracket. Paul Nicholls’ TED SPREAD is another five-year-old to be one of just six horses to also fall into that ratings bracket and his stable have a great record with novices in this race so he has to go on the short list despite a disappointing run when well fancied for last weekend’s Imperial Cup. Richard Fahey also has a five-year-old in the right area of the handicap so certainly don’t overlook INGLEBY SPIRIT who was fourth in the Scottish County Hurdle last time out. The Betfair Hurdle representative to concentrate on could be SAILORS WARN given he is Irish-trained and a five-year-old which are two key patterns. His trainer is always to be feared in the Festival handicaps and landed a monster gamble in this race over 30 years ago and he ran in last season’s Triumph Hurdle which has been throwing up big race winners all season. ALBERT BARTLETT NOVICES’ HURDLE This is only the eighth running but some strong trends are already emerging not least the importance of previous quality form at the course as six of the seven winners had run at Cheltenham before, five of which had done so on two occasions with four winning at least once. That said, no previous course winners are in this year’s field but Sea Of Thunder was going to hack up here in December until falling at the last flight. I am not sure Cheltenhamform will be that much of a factor this year. The best course guide has been the Hyde Novices’ Hurdle run over 2m5f in November in which Fingal Bay beat Barbatos as no less than four Albert Bartlett winners took part in that contest but only Sivola De Sivola (5th) takes his chance here of runners from that contest. The Bristol Novices’ Hurdle run at Cheltenham’s December Meeting over three miles won by Deireadh Re (doesn’t run here) has also proven to be an informative guide. The horse to take from that race is Sea Of Thunder who was six lengths ahead and stretching further clear when falling at the final flight. Black Jack Ketchum and Nenuphar Collonges won that Grade 2 prize en route to winning here and last year’s winner, Mossley, only found his stable mate too good in the Albert Bartlett so the record of the Bristol winner now reads an impressive 3141P2. The Classic Novices’ Hurdle run in late-January over 2m4f ½m and won by Batonnier is the third big Albert Bartlett guide to be run at Cheltenham earlier in the season. Bobs Worth took it last season prior to winning here thus emulating the 2007 winner, Wichita Lineman. Hard To Swallow (4th) is left to represent that race this year Other stats to take to note of are that just one winner could be found outside of the front five in the betting (positions currently occupied by Boston Bob, Mount Benbulben, Sea Of Thunder, Rocky Creek and Brindisi Breeze) and the same figures apply winners that failed to win or finish second last time out. Horses not to notch up a win or second place finish last time I therefore have to oppose are American Spin, Fill The Power, Tour Des Champs,SeaOfThunderand Sivola De Sivola. One factor that all seven winners adhered to, however, was having run at three times over hurdles which hasn’t been the case lately for the Triumph Hurdle or was the case for a good number of years until fairly recently for the Supreme. This counts against Rocky Creek. With age, in my belief, comes greater stamina so I am not surprised that it took the Albert Bartlett just six runnings to produce three winners aged 7+ whereas it has taken the last 72 combined runnings of the Supreme and Neptune to better that figure so I would go even further and actively encourage punters to take the take an opposite view to the perceived norm in novice hurdles and treat older novices (and by that I mean 7+) as a positive for this three-miler. The likely first two in the market, Boston Bob andMountBenbulben, are both seven-year-olds as are Lovcen and The Bosses Cousin. The only eight-year-old is American Spin. SHORT LIST BOSTON BOB MOUNT BENBULBEN BRINDISIBREEZE LOVCEN CONCLUSION It could well be that the Irish pair of BOSTON BOB and MOUNT BENBULBEN are a class apart. The former beat the latter in a Grade 1 event at Navan in December and the only other two runners in that race have won good races since.MountBenbulbenwasn’t at his best (sent off odds-on that day) as he returned with a sore back which explains his jumping out to the right. He looks the best alternative to Boston Bob if you don’t fancy the skinny price about the favourite who has since given weight and a good beating to a very good field in heavy ground. Both should enjoy this step up to 3m and are 7-year-olds which is a good thing for a novice event at this trip. BRINDISI BREEZE won a Grade 2 by a street on heavy ground last time so the ground could be an issue but he is likely to be overpriced on account of his less heralded connections. LOVCEN looks a toughie and this test could really suit Alan King’ charge who has won this race before with another toughie in Nenuphar Collonges and has had others run well in the race. He could be the best of those for each-way punters at double figure prices. BETFRED CHELTENHAM GOLD CUP If Kauto Star is going to re-write history yet again, no horse older than ten has won since 1969 let alone a twelve-year-old. Even ten-year-olds struggle these days with just one winner in the last 18 runnings. Therefore he is no trends horse and is opposed on age grounds alongside Midnight Chase and The Midnight Club. The last 12 winners having previously won a Grade 1 race. The only Grade 1 winners in the field are Long Run, Kauto Star, Synchronised, Quel Esprit, Diamond Harry and What A Friend. The key Grade 1 race has unquestionably been the King George VI Chase as that race has highlighted nine of the last 12 Gold Cup winners and witnessed an astonishing fifth win in the race for Kauto Star whose superior jumping was too good for Long Run on this occasion. The Betfair Chase, in which Kauto Star’s jumping and probable fitness advantage was a big factor in his victory over Long Run, has proven to be the joint second-best guide of current season races in the last decade with three wins which is no mean feat given that it was first introduced into the fixture list in 2006. Last season’s renewal has also featured three winners in the last ten years and 12 months ago it was Long Run who mastered Kauto Star over a trip many believe will play to his strengths better than the three miles of Haydock and Kempton. Weird Al, Diamond Harry and Time For Rupert were back in third, fourth and fifth at Haydock though Weird Al was only a couple of lengths off Long Run on that occasion with a gap back to the remainder. Another notable statistic is that only one of the last 13 winners failed to win earlier in the season which is againstBurton Port,ChinaRock, Diamond Harry, Knockara Beau, The Midnight Club and What A Friend. Nine of the last 11 Gold Cup winners had won or finished second at the Cheltenham Festival before (Long Run, Kauto Star andBurtonPortare the only qualifiers on this factor) and half of the last 20 winners were second-season chasers from considerably less than 50% representation. That latter stat will be of interest to supporters of Quel Esprit and Time For Rupert. Also consider that the last 11 winners could be found in the first three in the betting and ten of the last 11 winners had a BHA rating of 166+ entering the race (Kauto Star 183, Long Run 182, Synchronised 167 and Burton Port 166 are the only quartet rated 166+). Finally, do consider the fact front runners have averaged a win every five Gold Cups over the last 30 years. I would expect Midnight Chase to lead with Kauto Star, Quel Esprit and Carruthers hot on his heels. SHORTLIST LONG RUN SYNCHRONISED (WEIRD AL) (BURTON PORT) CONCLUSION LONG RUN would be the narrow trends picks over SYNCHRONISED on the basis that he has finished first or second at the Festival before and being assured of a top three position in the betting. Both are the right kind of age, are Grade 1 winners and have won this season and are rated 166+ so meet the four key criteria. Long Run also ran in the best trial when second in the King George and the likes of Best Mate and Kauto Star have proven that after years of Gold Cup winners not being able to win the race more than once, that in the current era and on better ground, it is very possible. Synchronised would be the second choice on trends surviving the major negative stats but not filling as many of the positive trends as the reigning title holder. He couldn’t have won the Lexus Chase much more impressively. Kauto Star fits so many positive stats but he does have the age trends to overcome which is the most important in my view hence his omission. The final two short list berths were between Weird Al, Quel Espirt and Burton Port who all have a couple of negatives to overcome but, in the end I just went with WEIRD AL as the yard couldn’t be in better form (same argument for Burton Port of course) but I like the fact that he ran third in the Betfair Chase just behind Long Run off levels (Burton Port was just behind Long Run receiving 10lbs) and that Haydock race has been a terrific guide to this race since its inception as the third pick. BURTON PORT would be the final short list contender in this 15-strong field as I like the fact he has placed on his only Festival start when he was second in the RSA Chase whereas Quel Esprit has fallen twice at this meeting and been unplaced twice. CHRISTIE’S FOXHUNTER CHASE The age factor has been an important element as 19 of the last 21 winners were aged ten or younger from around half the runners. From a trends point of view that means that Cloudy Lane, Eleazar, Keenan’s Future and Theatre Diva can’t appear on the short list. Surprising that there are only four this year as we can usually lose half the field with that stat. Next up, we have to seriously consider allying ourselves purely to last-time-out winners. Not so much because 21 of the last 26 Foxhunters’ won last time out but because the1-2-3for the last four years were all last-time-out winners. In fact, the first six home last season won on their most recent start following directly on from the first eight past the post 12 months earlier. Therefore I have to be against Blackstaff, Eleazar, Herons Well, Keenan’s Future, Not Before Eight, On The Fringe, Oscar Delta, Surenaga, Turko and Theatre Diva with my trends hat on. The fact that 20 of the last 23 winners emerged from a pointing background will please the traditionalists but beware for punting purposes as the three that did not were in the last seven years so this is now more for a point of interest. Those not initially brought up through the pointing ranks are Chapoturgeon, Barbers Shop, Turko,Cloudy Lane, Eleazar, Just Amazing, Merchant Royal, Not Before Eight, Picaroon, Roulez Cool, Salsify and Theatre Diva. The most significant guide in recent seasons is a race that took place approximately 46 weeks earlier as the Champion Hunters’ Chase at the Punchestown Festival won by Salsify has featured three of the last five winners. Salsify also won a strong renewal of the Raymond Smith Hunters’ Chase at Leopardstown last month and is a major player to become the seventh Irish-trained winner since 1983. The other Irish horses are On The Fringe, Boxer Georg, Count Salazar, Merchant Royal, Not Before Eight and Oscar Delta , Only Cappa Bleu of the last 18 winners had not won under Rules having done his share of winning in point-to-points and don’t be scared of chancing a long shot or two as seven of the last 11 were sent off at 14/1+. In-running punters should certainly take note of the front runner’s record as six of the last 16 winners led heading out onto the second circuit and some will argue that should have been seven but for Baby Run’s exit when leading at the penultimate fence last season though I’m not sure. Picaroon may well be the pacemaker here but whether he is good enough to last it out is another matter. SHORTLIST SALSIFY MERCHANT ROYAL MY FLORA ROWDY RAMAPGE COUNT SALAZAR CONCLUSION Given the good record of the Irish recently and the fact he won the best recent guide at last season’s Punchestown Festival and the strongest hunter chase run inIrelandthis season then SALSIFY is the one to beat and he is young enough to keep on improving. COUNT SALAZAR is likely to be a big price but as a young, Irish hunter brought up through the pointing ranks he is worthy of a place on the short list in a race that has thrown up some shocks recently. So too is MERCHANT ROYAL who is 3-3 since running behind Salsify in that Punchestown race that has thrown up three of the last five winners. He may have started off in a bumper but, to all intents and purposes, he has come up through the pointing and hunter chasing ranks. ROWDY RAMPAGE and MY FLORA could be best of the British. Rowdy Rampage is trained by Paul Nicholls who has trained two Foxhunters’ winners and was working with the yard’s big guns in his final gallops. He may not have run for 224 days but he has won his last seven completed starts and we know he is not going to fail for lack of fitness from this stable. My Flora is the darling of the point-to-point set and the champion novice hunter chaser of last season. She was beaten by Chapoturgeon andCloudy Laneat Newbury when falling back in March but has impressed in a point-to-point since. If she had an off day at Newbury, then she is right in the mix here. MARTIN PIPE CONDITIONAL JOCKEYS’ HANDICAP HURDLE In addition to the Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Handicap Chase, this handicap has also been upgraded for the first time this season from a 0-140 to a 0-145. Just three years to work off so we really are clutching at straws as far as meaningful patterns are concerned so I will keep this brief. There could be something in the fact that all three winners were second-season hurdlers and that both British-trained winners had previously proven their ability to handle a big field handicap atCheltenham. For understandable reasons there will be plenty of focus on David Pipe’s entries for this particular handicap and, as you might expect for a race honouring his father’s astonishing training achievements, his contenders have been a popular order to the extent that Pond House inmates were despatched as favourite in the first two years. He has I’msingingtheblues, Arab League, Dan Breen and Street Entertainer going for him this time. Nicky Henderson is likely to be at the forefront of many punters’ thoughts not only as he is having an unbelievable Festival with six winners so far at the time of writing but also having already demonstrated an aptitude for this race winning the inaugural running easily with Andytown before supplying the second, fourth and fifth from a powerful quartet that represented him in 2010 and a third-place finisher last year. He runs three novices, namely Molotof, Open Hearted and Oscar Nominee who all won last time out. Given we are short on patterns with just three years’ worth of evidence to work from, I am scratching around a little looking for another angle but it is certainly worth noting the excellent strike rate of last-time-out winners in handicap hurdles at the Festival having won just under half of such races since 1993 (29-60) and from just less than 20% overall representation. Sir Des Champs was one of four horses in last season’s field attempting to follow up a last-time-out win thus becoming the first winner of this handicap to successfully do so in its three-year existence. Last time out winners are Molotof, Attaglance, Open Hearted, Oscar Nominee, Arab League, Bourne, Changing Times and Gormanstown Cuckoo. SHORTLIST MOLOTOF ATTAGLANCE CHANGING TIMES GORMANSTOWN CUCKOO (BOURNE) CONCLUSION As Nicky Henderson has set his stall out to win this race all three years and has three last-time-out winners we have to respect them all but as Open Hearted and Oscar Nominee are first season hurdlers I prefer MOLOTOF of his trio being a second-season novice who was second in the Adonis Hurdle behind Zarkandar last season and is 3-3 for this campaign. ATTAGLANCE is also a second season hurdler and last time out winner and I do respect Malcolm Jefferson as a placer of horses (his Pertemps Final winner on Thursday being another example) so he is interesting and CHANGING TIMES is another with that same profile hence his place in the short list after a wide margin win last time at Fairyhouse and this is his first run for Nigel Twiston-Davies whose son Willy Twiston-Davies takes off a juicy looking 8lbs being attached to the yard. GORMANSTOWN CUCKOO is also having his first run for a new yard and is another second-season hurdler coming off a win when he was well backed at Aintree in the autumn. BOURNE is a first-season novice but given he is also a last-time-out winner and represents a yard on fire this week and the form of his Ascot win last time looks strong, then he gets the final berth on the short list. JOHNNY HENDERSON GRAND ANNUAL The advice up until recently was not to stray too far away from the leading fancies with 30 of the last 36 winners starting at no bigger than 10/1, but a 40/1 shot beat a 50/1 outsider last season and four of those six winners to start at bigger than 10/1 were achieved in the last six years. Novices have fared very strongly with 11 winners in the last 30 runnings and are very well represented this year with 9 of the 21 runners; Kid Cassidy, Astracad, Kumbeshwar, Toubab, Slieveardagh, Eradicate, Bellvano, Lucky William and Ultimate. As 19 of the last 20 winners had their previous start in February or March, the Grand Annual hasn’t been a race where arriving here off a break has been advantageous so I would be against Cornas, Tanks For That, (Kid Cassidy), Astracad, (Renard), (Kumbeshwar), Eradicate, (Anquetta), (Lucky William) and Norther Bay though those in brackets were only be a few days so maybe it would be harsh to dismiss them just for that reason alone. If the fact that all bar two of the last 11 winners to fall into the tight ratings band of 129-134 doesn’t catch your eye then trends are certainly not for you and I will leave you to decide if you believe the continued success of 129-134 rated horses is a coincidence or not whilst also throwing in the fact that they also paid out winning straight forecasts in 2000, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006 and 2008. Qualifiers this season are only Idarah andNortherBayin a far stronger renewal than usual so maybe you might want to consider those rated in the 130s which also brings in Tara Royal, Bellvano, Anquetta, Lucky William, Ultimate, Free World and De Boitron. Oiseau De Nuit’s 40/1 victory off 11st 6lbs last season (equated to a handicap mark of 145) was a surprise in more ways than one as he became the first winner since 1998 to carry over 11st. I will take the view that won’t happen twice in as many years so would be against French Opera, Cornas and Oiseau De Nuit. Nicky Henderson (a win and five places from 18 runners since the race was named in his father’s memory) and Paul Nicholls (two wins since 2004) lead the home defence in more recent times.Hendersonis all out to win it again responsible for almost a third of the field running French Opera, Tanks For That, Kid Cassidy, Eradicate, Anquetta and Bellvano. Nicholls relies on Toubab. However, also respect the Irish who have plundered four of the last 12 runnings so we have to seriously consider Slieveardagh, Lucky William, Idarah,NortherBayand Free World. The latter is trained by Arthur Moore who has trained two Grand Annual winners in the last ten years and, like that pair, he had his final prep race over hurdles With regards to the last seven British-trained winners, all seven had won atCheltenhambefore. The only course winners in the race are French Opera, Oiseau De Nuit, Tanks For That, Astracad and De Boitron. SHORT LIST IDARAH DE BOITRON BELLVANO TOUBAB FREE WORLD CONCLUSION As the last seven hone-trained winners had won at Cheltenham before that means we have to look closely at DE BOITRON who was fourth in this race last year as well and horses to run in a previous running of the Grand Annual have fared well. IDARAH makes the short list being one of only two to squeeze into the narrow ratings band that has thrown up so many winners and is also Irish-trained and they have a great record recent in the race. I want a Henderson horse and a novice on my side and he runs two of those in Kid Cassidy and BELLVANO. I just prefer the latter as I don’t trust to settle well enough for a race such as this. TOUBAB would be my other novice representing a yard that have won this a couple of times since 2004 and he won with any amount in hand last time out. How you interpret which trends are strongest will determine the shortlist and arguments can be made for many but the final spot goes to FREE WORLD given the trainer’s sublime record with 2m chasers at the Festival including in this race and he is only 1lb off appearing in that strong ratings band.

well what a final day for me at the festival. i had a loser in the first race,followed by a place in the second race i had sailors warn 3rd at 16/1 in the 3rd race i had bridsini breeze @ 10/1 4th race i had sycronized also at 10/1 5th race i had salsify @8/1 6th race i had attaglance @ 25/1 and the last race i had bellvano @ 20/1 so had a very very good day roll on next year

[Jump racing ~ Friday 16th March]

Re: Jump racing ~ Friday 16th March my bets for day 4 at cheltenham [wishing every-one the best of luck for the last day] JCB TRIUMPH HURDLE Last season’s 1-2-3 all won on their most recent start thus extending the record of last-time-out winners from 16 of the last 18 (if you include Scolardy winning his final start only to be disqualified) so that is a strong statistic and would instantly put me off Arctic Reach, Countrywide Flame, Dodging Bullets, His Excellency, Hollow Tree, Mattoral, Sadler’s Risk, Shadow Catcher, Ut De Sivola and Wingtips as win only bets. Pearl Swan was disqualified from first place last time out so it would be very harsh to overlook him on that run as he did pass the post in front. There can be no question that this is a different race now to the one before the introduction of the Fred Winter Juvenile Handicap in 2005. For a start, all seven winners could be found in the first four in the betting, positions that are currently occupied by Sadlers Risk, Grumeti, Pearl Swan and Baby Mix though Shadow Catcher, Darroun or Balder Succes could force their way into one of those positions on the day. The last three winners were all French imports which is a positive for Baby Mix, Balder Succes, Darroun, Pearl Swan, Ut De Sivola and Urbain De Sivola though the latter never raced in France as such, but we can’t oppose horses for being off the track too long as all the declarations have a recent run to their name. Three of the last four winners had run no more than twice over hurdles compared to just one winner between 1988-2007 so, on that basis, Darroun, Dodging Bullets, Dysios, Sadlers Risk, Shadow Catcher, West Brit, Wing Tips and Pearl Swan can be given another tick. The last six winners were all rated 138+ by the BHA Handicapper. Those that fail on this rating stat (or should fail but don’t have an official rating yet but appear to be under that mark using collateral formlines) are Asaid, Dysios, His Excellency, Mattoral, West Brit and Wingtips. Flat race form is also important as the last 13 Triumph winners that had a Flat campaign ran over 1m4f at least once (Grumeti, Shadow Catcher and Hisaabaat are lacking in this respect of the leading fancies that raced on the Flat) which is not to be overlooked as this is essentially a test of stamina for a four-year-old. Seven of the last eight winners did not have their hurdling debut until at least December with four of those not running over timber until at least January. In fact, we never even saw the last two winners in Britain until they won the Adonis Hurdle three weeks before this race and that has been easily best the guide with as many as five of the last 12 winners going on to double up in the Triumph and that would probably have been six had Binocular not been re-routed at the last moment to the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle. Baby Mix beat Sadlers Risk in this year’s running. SHORT LIST BABY MIX PEARL SWAN DARROUN BALDER SUCCES CONCLUSION The current favourite, Sadlers Risk, was beaten last time out which is a serious negative for this race so he misses out on the short list despite being the top rated Flat horse in the race and having run in the best trial when second in the Adonis Hurdle to BABY MIX. As the winner of that trial, then Baby Mix is an obvious trends horses given that 5 of the last 12 Triumph winners won that Kempton Grade 2 race and he has winning course form to boot. PEARL SWAN represents Paul Nicholls who has won this race twice recently and, like Baby Mix, he is a French import and they have won the last three runnings. He is also lightly raced over hurdles like recent winners and arrives here off the back of passing the post in front in a relevant trial. DARROUN is another lightly-raced French import from a yard that has won this race before and can prove best of the Irish in their bid to record their first win in this contest in ten years though that last winner (Scolardy) was also trained by Willie Mullins. BALDER SUCCES is 4-4 this season and another French import and represents a yard with two wins, two seconds and a third in recent seasons so he makes up the short list. Grumeti, Hisaabaat and Shadow Catcher didn’t race over long enough distances on the Flat to be considered short list trends-based material. VINCENT O’BRIEN COUNTY HURDLE The key two guides have been the Betfair Hurdle at Newbury which has highlighted four winners on the last eight occasions when the race beat the weather and the boylesports.com Hurdle at Leopardstown which has featured four of the last nine Vincent O’Brien County Hurdle winners. Dealing with the Betfair Hurdle first won by Zarkandar, this year’s Newbury race had so much strength in depth featuring the winners of so many big handicap hurdles over two miles over the last two seasons that it is hard to imagine that there will be a stronger handicap hurdle run all season so it has to be taken very seriously as a County Hurdle guide. The second (Get Me Out Of Here) finished second in the Coral Cup on Wednesday. Contenders from the Betfair Hurdle are Raya Star (3rd), Olofi (5th), Sailors Warn (6th), Via Galilei (11th), Desert Cry (12th) and Alarazi (14th). Regards the boylesports.com Hurdle, this season the race carries a massive 100,000 euros bonus if the winner can also go on and land a race at the Cheltenham Festival which is what Citizenship will be attempting to achieve. Trained by Jessica Harrington who has won aCountyHurdlealready with Spirit Leader, Citizenship passed 13 horses in the home straight so the extra furlong and theCheltenhamhill should be ideal. Final Approach completed the Boylesports/County Hurdle double last season so there is a very recent precedent. Citizenship is the only horse of the 30 that lined up in that Leopardstown race to run in this year’s Vincent O’Brien County Hurdle. The 139-rated Final Approach broke a run of six successive years of winners being rated in the 128-135 bracket when he got the verdict in the tightest of finishes 12 months ago. The only horses in that bracket this year are Master Of Arts, Ted Spread, Ifyouletmefinish, Ingleby Spirit, Citizenship and Court In Session. If you fancy the top weight, or a horse just tucked in the top weight in the handicap, I would seriously think again as no County Hurdle winner has carried more than 11st 8lbs for 52 years and only one horse has carried more than 11st 8lbs even into the frame since 1979 which would put me off Starlcuk, Clerks Choice and Moon Dice. Willie Mullins’ Final Approach was a five-year-old when successful last season so he kept their terrific strike rate going extending their recent record to eight wins from the last 13 renewals from around just a fifth of the total runners in that period. Five-year-olds in this year’s line up are Sailors Warn, Local Hero, Plan A, Edgardo Sol, Magnifique Etoile, Ted Spread, Ifyouletmefinish and Ingleby Spirit. Irish-trained of course, last year’s winner was therefore giving their raiders their fifth Vincent O’Brien County Hurdle winner in the last nine years. The are eight-handed this year with Citizenship, Moon Dice, Dirar, Sailors Warn, The Bull Hayes, Plan A, Alderwood and Redera. Also note Paul Nicholls with his record in the last eight years of three winners and a second in one of the hottest handicap hurdles run all season and he runs Ted Spread and Edgardo Sol. Philip Hobbs is another trainer to respect in the County Hurdle with a record of two winners plus a second and three thirds from 19 runners since 1990 and he runs Snap Tie who has dropped to a mark of 137 having not run for 882 days having been rated 158 the last time we saw him over hurdles. Unlike the Coral Cup, a quiet season is certainly not the order of the day as 16 of the last 18 winners had run at least four times earlier in the campaign which is against Starluck, Clerks Choice, Dee Ee Williams, Local Hero, Snap Tie and Master Of Arts. SHORT LIST CITIZENSHIP IFYOULETMEFINISH TED SPREAD SAILORS WARN INGLEBY SPIRIT CONCLUSION Having won one the two key guides, being Irish-trained (and by a yard successful in the race before) and falling into the right official ratings bracket then CITIZENSHIP is the main trends pick. Judging by the way he finished strongly to win the Boylesports Hurdle, he should also love this stiff finish and extra furlong and connections will be relieved he has squeezed in by one place. IFYOULETMEFINISH could be best of the five-year-olds who have a very good record in this race as he arrives here off a win (always a plus for Festival handicap hurdles) and fits into that same ratings bracket. Paul Nicholls’ TED SPREAD is another five-year-old to be one of just six horses to also fall into that ratings bracket and his stable have a great record with novices in this race so he has to go on the short list despite a disappointing run when well fancied for last weekend’s Imperial Cup. Richard Fahey also has a five-year-old in the right area of the handicap so certainly don’t overlook INGLEBY SPIRIT who was fourth in the Scottish County Hurdle last time out. The Betfair Hurdle representative to concentrate on could be SAILORS WARN given he is Irish-trained and a five-year-old which are two key patterns. His trainer is always to be feared in the Festival handicaps and landed a monster gamble in this race over 30 years ago and he ran in last season’s Triumph Hurdle which has been throwing up big race winners all season. ALBERT BARTLETT NOVICES’ HURDLE This is only the eighth running but some strong trends are already emerging not least the importance of previous quality form at the course as six of the seven winners had run at Cheltenham before, five of which had done so on two occasions with four winning at least once. That said, no previous course winners are in this year’s field but Sea Of Thunder was going to hack up here in December until falling at the last flight. I am not sure Cheltenhamform will be that much of a factor this year. The best course guide has been the Hyde Novices’ Hurdle run over 2m5f in November in which Fingal Bay beat Barbatos as no less than four Albert Bartlett winners took part in that contest but only Sivola De Sivola (5th) takes his chance here of runners from that contest. The Bristol Novices’ Hurdle run at Cheltenham’s December Meeting over three miles won by Deireadh Re (doesn’t run here) has also proven to be an informative guide. The horse to take from that race is Sea Of Thunder who was six lengths ahead and stretching further clear when falling at the final flight. Black Jack Ketchum and Nenuphar Collonges won that Grade 2 prize en route to winning here and last year’s winner, Mossley, only found his stable mate too good in the Albert Bartlett so the record of the Bristol winner now reads an impressive 3141P2. The Classic Novices’ Hurdle run in late-January over 2m4f ½m and won by Batonnier is the third big Albert Bartlett guide to be run at Cheltenham earlier in the season. Bobs Worth took it last season prior to winning here thus emulating the 2007 winner, Wichita Lineman. Hard To Swallow (4th) is left to represent that race this year Other stats to take to note of are that just one winner could be found outside of the front five in the betting (positions currently occupied by Boston Bob, Mount Benbulben, Sea Of Thunder, Rocky Creek and Brindisi Breeze) and the same figures apply winners that failed to win or finish second last time out. Horses not to notch up a win or second place finish last time I therefore have to oppose are American Spin, Fill The Power, Tour Des Champs,SeaOfThunderand Sivola De Sivola. One factor that all seven winners adhered to, however, was having run at three times over hurdles which hasn’t been the case lately for the Triumph Hurdle or was the case for a good number of years until fairly recently for the Supreme. This counts against Rocky Creek. With age, in my belief, comes greater stamina so I am not surprised that it took the Albert Bartlett just six runnings to produce three winners aged 7+ whereas it has taken the last 72 combined runnings of the Supreme and Neptune to better that figure so I would go even further and actively encourage punters to take the take an opposite view to the perceived norm in novice hurdles and treat older novices (and by that I mean 7+) as a positive for this three-miler. The likely first two in the market, Boston Bob andMountBenbulben, are both seven-year-olds as are Lovcen and The Bosses Cousin. The only eight-year-old is American Spin. SHORT LIST BOSTON BOB MOUNT BENBULBEN BRINDISIBREEZE LOVCEN CONCLUSION It could well be that the Irish pair of BOSTON BOB and MOUNT BENBULBEN are a class apart. The former beat the latter in a Grade 1 event at Navan in December and the only other two runners in that race have won good races since.MountBenbulbenwasn’t at his best (sent off odds-on that day) as he returned with a sore back which explains his jumping out to the right. He looks the best alternative to Boston Bob if you don’t fancy the skinny price about the favourite who has since given weight and a good beating to a very good field in heavy ground. Both should enjoy this step up to 3m and are 7-year-olds which is a good thing for a novice event at this trip. BRINDISI BREEZE won a Grade 2 by a street on heavy ground last time so the ground could be an issue but he is likely to be overpriced on account of his less heralded connections. LOVCEN looks a toughie and this test could really suit Alan King’ charge who has won this race before with another toughie in Nenuphar Collonges and has had others run well in the race. He could be the best of those for each-way punters at double figure prices. BETFRED CHELTENHAM GOLD CUP If Kauto Star is going to re-write history yet again, no horse older than ten has won since 1969 let alone a twelve-year-old. Even ten-year-olds struggle these days with just one winner in the last 18 runnings. Therefore he is no trends horse and is opposed on age grounds alongside Midnight Chase and The Midnight Club. The last 12 winners having previously won a Grade 1 race. The only Grade 1 winners in the field are Long Run, Kauto Star, Synchronised, Quel Esprit, Diamond Harry and What A Friend. The key Grade 1 race has unquestionably been the King George VI Chase as that race has highlighted nine of the last 12 Gold Cup winners and witnessed an astonishing fifth win in the race for Kauto Star whose superior jumping was too good for Long Run on this occasion. The Betfair Chase, in which Kauto Star’s jumping and probable fitness advantage was a big factor in his victory over Long Run, has proven to be the joint second-best guide of current season races in the last decade with three wins which is no mean feat given that it was first introduced into the fixture list in 2006. Last season’s renewal has also featured three winners in the last ten years and 12 months ago it was Long Run who mastered Kauto Star over a trip many believe will play to his strengths better than the three miles of Haydock and Kempton. Weird Al, Diamond Harry and Time For Rupert were back in third, fourth and fifth at Haydock though Weird Al was only a couple of lengths off Long Run on that occasion with a gap back to the remainder. Another notable statistic is that only one of the last 13 winners failed to win earlier in the season which is againstBurton Port,ChinaRock, Diamond Harry, Knockara Beau, The Midnight Club and What A Friend. Nine of the last 11 Gold Cup winners had won or finished second at the Cheltenham Festival before (Long Run, Kauto Star andBurtonPortare the only qualifiers on this factor) and half of the last 20 winners were second-season chasers from considerably less than 50% representation. That latter stat will be of interest to supporters of Quel Esprit and Time For Rupert. Also consider that the last 11 winners could be found in the first three in the betting and ten of the last 11 winners had a BHA rating of 166+ entering the race (Kauto Star 183, Long Run 182, Synchronised 167 and Burton Port 166 are the only quartet rated 166+). Finally, do consider the fact front runners have averaged a win every five Gold Cups over the last 30 years. I would expect Midnight Chase to lead with Kauto Star, Quel Esprit and Carruthers hot on his heels. SHORTLIST LONG RUN SYNCHRONISED (WEIRD AL) (BURTON PORT) CONCLUSION LONG RUN would be the narrow trends picks over SYNCHRONISED on the basis that he has finished first or second at the Festival before and being assured of a top three position in the betting. Both are the right kind of age, are Grade 1 winners and have won this season and are rated 166+ so meet the four key criteria. Long Run also ran in the best trial when second in the King George and the likes of Best Mate and Kauto Star have proven that after years of Gold Cup winners not being able to win the race more than once, that in the current era and on better ground, it is very possible. Synchronised would be the second choice on trends surviving the major negative stats but not filling as many of the positive trends as the reigning title holder. He couldn’t have won the Lexus Chase much more impressively. Kauto Star fits so many positive stats but he does have the age trends to overcome which is the most important in my view hence his omission. The final two short list berths were between Weird Al, Quel Espirt and Burton Port who all have a couple of negatives to overcome but, in the end I just went with WEIRD AL as the yard couldn’t be in better form (same argument for Burton Port of course) but I like the fact that he ran third in the Betfair Chase just behind Long Run off levels (Burton Port was just behind Long Run receiving 10lbs) and that Haydock race has been a terrific guide to this race since its inception as the third pick. BURTON PORT would be the final short list contender in this 15-strong field as I like the fact he has placed on his only Festival start when he was second in the RSA Chase whereas Quel Esprit has fallen twice at this meeting and been unplaced twice. CHRISTIE’S FOXHUNTER CHASE The age factor has been an important element as 19 of the last 21 winners were aged ten or younger from around half the runners. From a trends point of view that means that Cloudy Lane, Eleazar, Keenan’s Future and Theatre Diva can’t appear on the short list. Surprising that there are only four this year as we can usually lose half the field with that stat. Next up, we have to seriously consider allying ourselves purely to last-time-out winners. Not so much because 21 of the last 26 Foxhunters’ won last time out but because the1-2-3for the last four years were all last-time-out winners. In fact, the first six home last season won on their most recent start following directly on from the first eight past the post 12 months earlier. Therefore I have to be against Blackstaff, Eleazar, Herons Well, Keenan’s Future, Not Before Eight, On The Fringe, Oscar Delta, Surenaga, Turko and Theatre Diva with my trends hat on. The fact that 20 of the last 23 winners emerged from a pointing background will please the traditionalists but beware for punting purposes as the three that did not were in the last seven years so this is now more for a point of interest. Those not initially brought up through the pointing ranks are Chapoturgeon, Barbers Shop, Turko,Cloudy Lane, Eleazar, Just Amazing, Merchant Royal, Not Before Eight, Picaroon, Roulez Cool, Salsify and Theatre Diva. The most significant guide in recent seasons is a race that took place approximately 46 weeks earlier as the Champion Hunters’ Chase at the Punchestown Festival won by Salsify has featured three of the last five winners. Salsify also won a strong renewal of the Raymond Smith Hunters’ Chase at Leopardstown last month and is a major player to become the seventh Irish-trained winner since 1983. The other Irish horses are On The Fringe, Boxer Georg, Count Salazar, Merchant Royal, Not Before Eight and Oscar Delta , Only Cappa Bleu of the last 18 winners had not won under Rules having done his share of winning in point-to-points and don’t be scared of chancing a long shot or two as seven of the last 11 were sent off at 14/1+. In-running punters should certainly take note of the front runner’s record as six of the last 16 winners led heading out onto the second circuit and some will argue that should have been seven but for Baby Run’s exit when leading at the penultimate fence last season though I’m not sure. Picaroon may well be the pacemaker here but whether he is good enough to last it out is another matter. SHORTLIST SALSIFY MERCHANT ROYAL MY FLORA ROWDY RAMAPGE COUNT SALAZAR CONCLUSION Given the good record of the Irish recently and the fact he won the best recent guide at last season’s Punchestown Festival and the strongest hunter chase run inIrelandthis season then SALSIFY is the one to beat and he is young enough to keep on improving. COUNT SALAZAR is likely to be a big price but as a young, Irish hunter brought up through the pointing ranks he is worthy of a place on the short list in a race that has thrown up some shocks recently. So too is MERCHANT ROYAL who is 3-3 since running behind Salsify in that Punchestown race that has thrown up three of the last five winners. He may have started off in a bumper but, to all intents and purposes, he has come up through the pointing and hunter chasing ranks. ROWDY RAMPAGE and MY FLORA could be best of the British. Rowdy Rampage is trained by Paul Nicholls who has trained two Foxhunters’ winners and was working with the yard’s big guns in his final gallops. He may not have run for 224 days but he has won his last seven completed starts and we know he is not going to fail for lack of fitness from this stable. My Flora is the darling of the point-to-point set and the champion novice hunter chaser of last season. She was beaten by Chapoturgeon andCloudy Laneat Newbury when falling back in March but has impressed in a point-to-point since. If she had an off day at Newbury, then she is right in the mix here. MARTIN PIPE CONDITIONAL JOCKEYS’ HANDICAP HURDLE In addition to the Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Handicap Chase, this handicap has also been upgraded for the first time this season from a 0-140 to a 0-145. Just three years to work off so we really are clutching at straws as far as meaningful patterns are concerned so I will keep this brief. There could be something in the fact that all three winners were second-season hurdlers and that both British-trained winners had previously proven their ability to handle a big field handicap atCheltenham. For understandable reasons there will be plenty of focus on David Pipe’s entries for this particular handicap and, as you might expect for a race honouring his father’s astonishing training achievements, his contenders have been a popular order to the extent that Pond House inmates were despatched as favourite in the first two years. He has I’msingingtheblues, Arab League, Dan Breen and Street Entertainer going for him this time. Nicky Henderson is likely to be at the forefront of many punters’ thoughts not only as he is having an unbelievable Festival with six winners so far at the time of writing but also having already demonstrated an aptitude for this race winning the inaugural running easily with Andytown before supplying the second, fourth and fifth from a powerful quartet that represented him in 2010 and a third-place finisher last year. He runs three novices, namely Molotof, Open Hearted and Oscar Nominee who all won last time out. Given we are short on patterns with just three years’ worth of evidence to work from, I am scratching around a little looking for another angle but it is certainly worth noting the excellent strike rate of last-time-out winners in handicap hurdles at the Festival having won just under half of such races since 1993 (29-60) and from just less than 20% overall representation. Sir Des Champs was one of four horses in last season’s field attempting to follow up a last-time-out win thus becoming the first winner of this handicap to successfully do so in its three-year existence. Last time out winners are Molotof, Attaglance, Open Hearted, Oscar Nominee, Arab League, Bourne, Changing Times and Gormanstown Cuckoo. SHORTLIST MOLOTOF ATTAGLANCE CHANGING TIMES GORMANSTOWN CUCKOO (BOURNE) CONCLUSION As Nicky Henderson has set his stall out to win this race all three years and has three last-time-out winners we have to respect them all but as Open Hearted and Oscar Nominee are first season hurdlers I prefer MOLOTOF of his trio being a second-season novice who was second in the Adonis Hurdle behind Zarkandar last season and is 3-3 for this campaign. ATTAGLANCE is also a second season hurdler and last time out winner and I do respect Malcolm Jefferson as a placer of horses (his Pertemps Final winner on Thursday being another example) so he is interesting and CHANGING TIMES is another with that same profile hence his place in the short list after a wide margin win last time at Fairyhouse and this is his first run for Nigel Twiston-Davies whose son Willy Twiston-Davies takes off a juicy looking 8lbs being attached to the yard. GORMANSTOWN CUCKOO is also having his first run for a new yard and is another second-season hurdler coming off a win when he was well backed at Aintree in the autumn. BOURNE is a first-season novice but given he is also a last-time-out winner and represents a yard on fire this week and the form of his Ascot win last time looks strong, then he gets the final berth on the short list. JOHNNY HENDERSON GRAND ANNUAL The advice up until recently was not to stray too far away from the leading fancies with 30 of the last 36 winners starting at no bigger than 10/1, but a 40/1 shot beat a 50/1 outsider last season and four of those six winners to start at bigger than 10/1 were achieved in the last six years. Novices have fared very strongly with 11 winners in the last 30 runnings and are very well represented this year with 9 of the 21 runners; Kid Cassidy, Astracad, Kumbeshwar, Toubab, Slieveardagh, Eradicate, Bellvano, Lucky William and Ultimate. As 19 of the last 20 winners had their previous start in February or March, the Grand Annual hasn’t been a race where arriving here off a break has been advantageous so I would be against Cornas, Tanks For That, (Kid Cassidy), Astracad, (Renard), (Kumbeshwar), Eradicate, (Anquetta), (Lucky William) and Norther Bay though those in brackets were only be a few days so maybe it would be harsh to dismiss them just for that reason alone. If the fact that all bar two of the last 11 winners to fall into the tight ratings band of 129-134 doesn’t catch your eye then trends are certainly not for you and I will leave you to decide if you believe the continued success of 129-134 rated horses is a coincidence or not whilst also throwing in the fact that they also paid out winning straight forecasts in 2000, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006 and 2008. Qualifiers this season are only Idarah andNortherBayin a far stronger renewal than usual so maybe you might want to consider those rated in the 130s which also brings in Tara Royal, Bellvano, Anquetta, Lucky William, Ultimate, Free World and De Boitron. Oiseau De Nuit’s 40/1 victory off 11st 6lbs last season (equated to a handicap mark of 145) was a surprise in more ways than one as he became the first winner since 1998 to carry over 11st. I will take the view that won’t happen twice in as many years so would be against French Opera, Cornas and Oiseau De Nuit. Nicky Henderson (a win and five places from 18 runners since the race was named in his father’s memory) and Paul Nicholls (two wins since 2004) lead the home defence in more recent times.Hendersonis all out to win it again responsible for almost a third of the field running French Opera, Tanks For That, Kid Cassidy, Eradicate, Anquetta and Bellvano. Nicholls relies on Toubab. However, also respect the Irish who have plundered four of the last 12 runnings so we have to seriously consider Slieveardagh, Lucky William, Idarah,NortherBayand Free World. The latter is trained by Arthur Moore who has trained two Grand Annual winners in the last ten years and, like that pair, he had his final prep race over hurdles With regards to the last seven British-trained winners, all seven had won atCheltenhambefore. The only course winners in the race are French Opera, Oiseau De Nuit, Tanks For That, Astracad and De Boitron. SHORT LIST IDARAH DE BOITRON BELLVANO TOUBAB FREE WORLD CONCLUSION As the last seven hone-trained winners had won at Cheltenham before that means we have to look closely at DE BOITRON who was fourth in this race last year as well and horses to run in a previous running of the Grand Annual have fared well. IDARAH makes the short list being one of only two to squeeze into the narrow ratings band that has thrown up so many winners and is also Irish-trained and they have a great record recent in the race. I want a Henderson horse and a novice on my side and he runs two of those in Kid Cassidy and BELLVANO. I just prefer the latter as I don’t trust to settle well enough for a race such as this. TOUBAB would be my other novice representing a yard that have won this a couple of times since 2004 and he won with any amount in hand last time out. How you interpret which trends are strongest will determine the shortlist and arguments can be made for many but the final spot goes to FREE WORLD given the trainer’s sublime record with 2m chasers at the Festival including in this race and he is only 1lb off appearing in that strong ratings band.

[R.I.P. JOHN AKEHURST]

taken from racing post ROYAL ASCOT-winning trainer John Akehurst died on Wednesday afternoon at the age of 51. Akehurst, the son of former trainer Reg, had been ill for some time and died at the Royal Marsden hospital in Sutton. Fellow Epsom trainer Simon Dow said: "I saw John briefly at lunchtime and his father Reg and mother Sheila, as well as his brother Murray, were all due to go in during the afternoon. He didamazingly to hang on so long. He was a very brave man." Having started out in racing with Fulke Walwyn before joining Stan Mellor, Akehurst later became assistant to his father during which time he rode one winner as an amateur rider. He later moved to Lambourn before returning to Epsom where he took over from his father on his retirement. It was during this period of his career that he was most successful, sending out Capricho to win the Wokingham in 2002 as well as registering notable victories with the likes of Marsad and Mac Love. Prince Of Sorrento, who provided Akehurst with a final winner from his final runner at Lingfield last week, carried his colours to victoryat Kempton on Wednesday night on his first start for the trainer's former assistant Lee Carter. Akehurst is survived by two daughters, Millie and Sophie.

[Thurs: 4.00 Byrne Group Plate Handicap Chase]

Re: Thurs: 4.00 Byrne Group Plate Handicap Chase BYRNE GROUP PLATE Unquestionably the hardest race at the Festival to nail the winner of in recent seasons, which may be partly down to the fact that the Byrne Group Plate has attracted the most lowest-rated horses of all the handicap chases on the park course in the last six years, Holmwood Legend’s victory at 25/1 last season extended the winning sequence of double-figure odds winners to 11. Favourites are faring better than of late with the last two both placing unlike the previous eight. Many will view Cheltenham’s two big 2½m handicap chases run before Christmas, the Paddy Power Gold Cup and Spinal Research The Atlantic 4 December Gold Cup, as key guides but only one Byrne Group Plate winner took part in either of those two valuable handicaps chases since 1984 which is against Divers, Finger Onthe Pulse, Holmwood Legend and Fine Parchment (contested the Paddy Power Gold Cup) and Mad Moose, Salut Flo, Matuhi and Divers again (contested the December Gold Cup). As French-breds have won six of the last 12 runnings from no way near 50% representation, that could be a good angle and their representatives are Tartak, Giorgio Quercus, Rebel De Maquis, Hector’s Choice, Notus De La Tour, Divers and Salut Flo though, annoyingly, they all fail on other stats. 15 of the last 17 winners have carried no more than 11st including the1-2-3for the last three years so on that basis the top ten in the weights would be unusual winners. You may also want to give gloss over the Irish challenge of Finger Onthe Pulse and Glam Gerry given that they have mustered just one winner since 1951. Age hasn’t been a serious factor as Mister McGoldrick won as an 11-year-old four years ago as did Terao and Elfast not all that long ago and there was also victories fortwo ten-year-olds in fairly recent times. That said, 12 of the last 13 winners had run no more than 16 times over fences so on that basis I am against Tartak, Finger Onthe Pulse, Holmwood Legend, Fine Parchment, Life Of A Luso and Kilcrea Asla. Despite the big-priced winners, only two of the last 20 winners finished outside of the top four last time out which is a negative for Schindlers Gold, Charingworth, Gibarry and Radetsky March of those not already with a statistical negative to their name. Look out for Nicky Henderson (Giorgio Quercus and Jack The Giant) who has trained four winners though both have it to do on weight stats and Venetia Williams (Niceonefrankie) who enters this season’s race with a very impressive haul of two wins and five places from 12 runners. Paul Nicholls (Crack Away Jack and Rebel De Maquis), on the other hand, is 0-21 with just two placing. SHORTLIST NICEONEFRANKIE GANSEY THE COCKNEY MACKEM (GIORGIO QUERCUS) (HECTOR’S CHOICE) CONCLUSION Venetia Williams has a terrific record in this race and NICEONEFRANKIE has scraped in by the skin of his teeth after picking up a penalty for winning at Newbury 13 days ago. Last year’s winner did likewise with a Sandown victory five days earlier. He survives the negative trends so would be the main trends pick given his trainer has won this race twice recently including recording a 1-2. Sue Smith has also won this race recently and GANSEY makes some appeal surviving all the negative trends. He ran well for a long way in this race last year and he could be a big priced outsider to consider for each-way purposes in a race which throws up big priced winners. THE COCKNEY MACKEM is certainly consistent so is another that appeals from an each-way perspective. Six second places in 11 starts could worry some that he is a weak finisher but he has been running against decent sorts and recording good times and will love decent ground so dismiss him at your peril from running another big race. No others survive all the negative trends but I include GIORGIO QUERCUS as he is a French-bred hailing from a yard with four wins in the race so he would be the strongest of the rest. HECTOR’S CHOICE also only falls down on carrying over 11st but he is bang in form, a French-bred and his trainer has a good record in this race including winning it with Super Coin and this has been his Festival aim for a long time.

[Thurs: 3.20 Ladbrokes World Hurdle]

Re: Thurs: 3.20 Ladbrokes World Hurdle LADBROKES WORLD HURDLE If Big Buck’s is to win his fourth Ladbrokes World Hurdle then he will solely become the most successful staying hurdler in history going one better than Inglis Drever’s three successes in this race and equal Sir Ken’s all-time record of 16 successive hurdle-race victories in the process. A French-bred of course, the reigning title holder’s three victories have gone a long way to securing half of the last 12 runnings for horses of such origin but it is also worth noting that when the British-bred Inglis Drever won his three World Hurdles that it was three different French-breds in Baracouda, Mighty Man and Kasbah Bliss that followed him home. Other French-breds are Dynaste, Five Dream, Mikael D’Haguenet,Smad Place, So Young and Thousand Stars. The Long Walk Hurdle and Cleeve Hurdle have been the pre-eminent guides of late and Big Buck’s won both of those in a stroll this season beating Five Dream and Dynaste in the former and Dynaste and Mourad in the latter. The Cleeve Hurdle has been the stronger guide in very recent years having featured three of the last five winners and it is no coincidence that its upturn in fortunes as a World Hurdle guide has increased since it was upped from 2m5f to 3m. However, over a period of ten years, the Cleeve just falls behind the Long Walk Hurdle and last season’s World Hurdle with five wins apiece, both of which were won by Big Buck’s. The last World Hurdle winner to contest the Champion Hurdle wasBarryHills’Nomadic Wayback in 1992 which is the big stat against Oscar Whisky and Thousand Stars who finished third and fourth behind Hurricane Fly 12 months ago. Keeping with the negative trends theme, the Irish are also struggling badly not having won a renewal for 17 years and in addition to Willie Mullins’ quartet, Voler La Vedette also runs. Carlito Brigante is also declared but runs in the Coral Cup 24 hours earlier. No five-year-old has won since the race’s inception in 1972 which is against Smad Place and just one front runner has clung on for a place since 1996 which could be against Mourad if they decide to lead again like they did when he won the Boyne Hurdle last time out. A couple of more positive stats are that 16 of the last 18 winners also ran at last season’s Festival (those that didn’t were Voler La Vedette and King Of The Night) and that the last ten winners could be found in the first four in the betting. SHORTLIST BIG BUCK’S DYNASTE (SO YOUNG) CONCLUSION No a strong trends race to be honest. Ex-Champion Hurdle runners have a poor record hence the omission of Oscar Whisky and Thousand Stars from the short list. It’s almost as hard to get away from BIG BUCK’S on trends as it is on form and he should make it 16 wins on the spin and win this race for the fourth year running. If you fancy an each-way alternative or bet without the favourite then DYNASTE might be the one being a French-bred that has been running in the right races and could be interesting if settled in behind this time to pick up a place. SO YOUNG is my idea of the horse most likely to start fourth-favourite and sneak in on that pattern so being a horse that could have won the Neptune last year (Rock On Ruby was second) with a good jump at the final flight and a French-bred as well, he gets the third slot on a trends based short list. Mourad and Mikael D’Haguenet also represent Mullins (as does Thousand Star) but the former might make the running which isn’t ideal for this race and the latter is too unpredictable.

[Thurs: 4.40 Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Handicap Chase]

Re: Thurs: 4.40 Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Handicap Chase FULKE WALWYN KIM MUIR HANDICAP CHASE The weakest handicap at the Festival in terms of strong trends and that is likely to be even more the case this year following its upgrade from a 0-140 contest to 0-145 for the first time as the ratings stats were the strongest of the few positive trends but I don’t think we can trust them now given this change. Nicky Henderson (Be There In Five), Donald McCain (unrepresented this year) and Ferdy Murphy (The Hollinwell) have the best recent record with three, two and two winners respectively. Jonjo O’Neill (1 place from his last 18 runners) runs Sunnyhillboy and Nigel Twiston-Davies (last 13 runners since 1995 finished unplaced) runs Frontier Spirit. Surprisingly for a handicap, just four of the last 32 winners were aged seven or younger as younger horses are usually better-handicapped horses which puts me off Up The Beat, Midnight Appeal, Brackloon High and Gurtacrue and this has also not been a race for the Irish failing to register a victory since Greasepaint back in 1983 which is another negative for Up The Beat as well as Becauseicouldntsee, Start Me Up, Your Busy and Adams Island. Best concentrate on horses in their prime, eight and nine-year-olds, who have won 14 of the last 18 renewals from less than 50% representation. This is also one of the few races at the Festival where a big recent run last time out is far from a must, six of the last nine winners finished unplaced on their latest outing. Being an amateur-riders’ race, horsemanship is important and six of the last seven winners were ridden by non-claiming amateurs so experience in the saddle certainly does count in this handicap SHORTLIST THE HOLLINWELL SUMMERY JUSTICE BENBANE HEAD TIME FOR SPRING SONA SASTA CONCLUSION Nine horses to choose from to survive the negative trends is too many so with a little reluctance I have had to leave off Mostly Bob as he is ridden by a 7lbs claimer and beat a load of veterans last time out, Be There In Five as he is ridden by a 5lbs claimer and has shown zip in two starts this season and Fredo and piraya also have claimers on board whereas top amateurs tend to win this race. Ferdy Murphy has won this race twice and THE HOLLINWELL could easily make it three. The winner of Jumpers Bumper last time out showed him in to be in good form (did well to win one of those being a staying chaser) and his second in the Rehearsal Chase earlier in the season had Kim Muir written all over it. SUMMERY JUSTICE has a former professional in the saddle which can not be a bad thing. He is not easy to train judged by two runs in two years but his only run (and win) last season has been working out very well and his trainer (Venetia Williams) is particularly cute at laying one out for a Festival handicap. SONA SASTA is interesting off near bottom weight in first-time blinkers. He made much of the running in last season’s NH Chase over 4m but maybe didn’t stay so, back to 3m1½f here and representing the Pipe yard that love the Festival handicaps, he is a major player. BENBANE HEAD stays very well and this could be his kind of race. An impressive course winner as a novice hurdler, his last run over hurdles smacked as getting him ready for this handicap chase and he could be big each-way value. TIME FOR SPRING completes the short list ridden by Sam Waley-Cohen. He ran poorly last time but the Longsdon yard were out of sorts at the time but he is a lightly-raced horse at the right end of the weights and has been trained with this race in mind all season.

[Thurs: 2.40 Ryanair Chase]

Re: Thurs: 2.40 Ryanair Chase RYANAIR CHASE All seven winners and five runners-up had winning course form which is a clear positive for Albertas Run, Captain Chris, Forpadydeplasterer, Great Endeavour, Little Josh, Noble Prince and Poquelin. Harsh to say that Somersby and Kalahari King (both placed at two Festivals) don’t handle the track or indeed Medermit despite being 0-7 here as he has been second in three big races at the course. Five of those winners had either won or been placed in the Paddy Power Gold Cup won by Great Endeavour or the Spinal Research The Atlantic 4 Gold Cup (December Gold Cup) in which Medermit was second (Great Endeavour was back in the ruck). Three Ryanair winners had won or finished second in the previous season’s renewal which is encouraging for supporters of last year’s 1-2 Albertas Run and Kalahari King. However, unlike those three good guides, the best recent pointer has not been contested atCheltenhambut the King George VI Chase at Kempton, a race in which the last four Ryanair winners took part. Captain Chris (third) and Somersby (fourth) representative that race this year. Surprisingly, all eight BHA top-rated horses have been beaten and we have four joint top-rated horses on 168 this year namely Albertas Run, Rubi Light, Riverside Theatre and Poquelin. The Irish are yet to win being 0-19 so far though this would appear to be their strongest-ever challenge with Noble Prince and Rubi Light at the head of the market and Forpadydeplaster and Blazing Tempo being outside chances. Realt Dubh is also declared but runs in the Champion Chase. Since the Ryanair was elevated to a Grade 1 race after three runnings, it is noticeable that more stayers have been winning compared to the first three years when it was all about considered specialists at around this intermediate trip. It is fair to argue that the first three winners were viewed as 2m4f horses before the Ryanair was upgraded but, since its elevation in status, I would argue that Ryanair winners were more about stamina. It is certainly true that the quality has improved which has probably led to having to stay better and all 12 win-and-placed horses were officially rated 156+ since the race was elevated to a Grade 1 contest which was not the case beforehand and the likes of Little Josh, Forpadydeplasterer and Blazing Tempo fall down on that statistic. SHORTLIST CAPTAIN CHRIS GREAT ENDEAVOUR (SOMERSBY) (NOBLE PRINCE) CONCLUSION It might seem a bit silly to rule out the top-rated horse but this is a trends service and they do have a poor record. The four joint top weights all have niggles though as Albertas Run is now 11 and coming off a long layoff through injury and this is a deeper race than the last two Ryanairs he has won, Poquelin has been a beaten favourite in this race for the last two years and this is a better quality renewal, Riverside Theatre ran a very peculiar race on his only Cheltenham start and might be a flat track horse and the ground may just be too lively to Rubi Light. I like the fact that since this race was elevated to a Grade 1 contest that all four winners ran in the Grade 1 King George hence my interest in CAPTAIN CHRIS and SOMERSBY. Admittedly, both have their quirks but both have the natural ability to win this race and could have run in the Gold Cup and I like the stamina angle since this became a Grade 1. Captain Chris needs to sort his jumping out but if Yogi Breisner has worked the oracle with last year’s Arkle winner and he jumps like he did in that victory 12 months ago, then he has a blinding chance. Somersby strikes me as the each-way horse as he regularly runs to marks good enough to place in normal Ryanair. He is not a course winner but he been placed in the Supreme and Arkle so he does go well here and running on the stiffer New Course could be in his favour and cheekpieces just might be the answer to him having worked so well when he won at Ascot last time. GREAT ENDEAVOUR has to go on the short list having won the Paddy Power Gold Cup and he does go very well fresh and has been held back for this since being flopping in another good guide here in December when he was having his third start in four weeks so that run is best ignored. NOBLE PRINCE only fails only being Irish-trained otherwise he has strong claims on ground in his favour for the first time this season. I take the view that the Jewson, which he won last year so well, will turn out to be the key guide in years to come.

[Thurs: 1.30 Jewson Novices Chase]

Re: Thurs: 1.30 Jewson Novices Chase JEWSON NOVICES’ CHASE I know there is only one year to work off but it is worth a mention that the winner, runner-up and fourth all ran well in a handicap hurdle at the previous season’s Cheltenham Festival (Noble Prince was fifth in the County Hurdle, Wishfull Thinking fell two out when bang in contention in the Coral Cup and Radium was second in the Martin Pipe Conditional Jockey’s Handicap Hurdle). On that basis, Sir Des Champs, is more interesting than most having won last season’s Martin Pipe Hurdle and For Non Stop, who would probably have been second in the Coral Cup but for a last flight fall, is also worth noting. Champion Court also ran well at last year’s Festival when fourth in the Albert Bartlett but that, of course, wouldn’t compare to Peddlers Cross’ second place finish in the Champion Hurdle. Four of the 11 horses that faced the starter for the inaugural running finished first or second last time out including the 1-2 which was far from unexpected given that only three horses have failed to finish in the first two on their final start before they won either of the other big novice chases at the Festival (Arkle and RSA) in the last combined 49 runnings of those two Grade 1 races. Only Zaynar is a non qualifier this year. Maybe look to pattern-race winners over hurdles given that eight of the last ten combined winners of the Arkle and RSA Chase had achieved this feat. Obviously that brings in Peddlers Cross but also Bold Sir Brian, Champion Court, Cristal Bonus, Solix and Zaynar. Sticking with the Arkle Trophy and RSA Chase as guides that might point us in the right direction, we have had 42 combined runnings of those novice chases since 1988 and only one of those went to a horse older than eight. Throw in the six runnings of the Centenary Novices’ Handicap Chase as well and that makes it 1-50 for horses aged 8+ in novice chases at the Festival up to three miles so Red Tanber (9) would not be for me. Maybe the Dipper Chase won byChampion Courtfrom Solix and the Scilly Isles Novices’ Chase won by For Non Stop from Micheal Flips will be the key guides in years to come being the two most prestigious novice chases inBritainbefore the Festival over an intermediate trip? Or even the Pendil Chase at Kempton three weeks before the Festival won by Cristal Bonus. SHORTLIST SIR DES CHAMPS PEDDLERS CROSS FOR NON STOP CONCLUSION As a big run in a handicap hurdle at the previous season’s Festival was a big factor last year, then SIR DES CHAMPS is of interest having come from a mile back to win the Martin Pipe Hurdle quite snugly in the end. I suspect he is a Grade 1 horse in a Grade 2 race and if Mullins had his way I reckon he would be in the Grade 1 RSA Chase but his owner wanted runners in both races. PEDDLERS CROSS didn’t run well in a handicap hurdle at the Festival last year, he went a step better than that by running second in the Champion Hurdle and his switch to the Jewson from the Arkle could turn out to be the right decision having witnessed the ease of Sprinter Sacre’s win on Tuesday. The worry is that he has not been pleasing as they wanted at home but the McCain horses were on fire on the opening day. Cristal Bonus jumped great when he won at Kempton last time and is an obvious threat but he has no Festival form so FOR NON STOP gets the third slot having run so well in the Coral Cup last year and he has taken well to fences winning the Grade 1 Scilly Isles Novices’ Chase.

[Thurs: 2.05 Pertemps Final (Handicap Hurdle)]

Re: Thurs: 2.05 Pertemps Final (Handicap Hurdle) PERTEMPS FINAL A handicap that has really put followers of patterns through the torture chamber recently, though the reality is that the last eight winners all starting at a double-figure price doesn’t help followers of most lines of thinking, and I would say we have to go back to Inching Closer in 2003 to find the last winner who could have been called a ‘trends horse’. The best qualifier now takes place at Cheltenhamin October which has featured three of the last seven winners of the Final followed by the Leopardstown qualifier which featured the 2005 and 2006 winners. Runners from the Cheltenhamqualifier are Russian War (5th) and Buena Vista (last). Buena Vista was also nowhere in that race last year but went on to win the Final. Runners from the Leopardstown Qualifier are Catch Me (7th) (since bought by J P McManus) and Prince Erik (9th) (second in this Final in two years ago). What has become increasingly apparent in recent seasons is that a different type of horse now wins the Pertemps Final than from a few years back. Seemingly gone now are the days for a well-hatched plot to come to fruition unlike regular occurrences during the 1980s and 1990s as the race now attracts more 140+ horses than ever before. That still hasn’t helped horses rated 150+ though as only two have notched up a top-six finish since 1997 so Restless Harry and Ashkazar are up against it. Grizzled, old warriors such as Buena Vista, who has won the last two renewals, can no longer be glossed over as was previously the case and in the process took the record of horses aged 9+ to six wins in the last 13 runnings (five of those being nine-year-olds). At the other end of the scale, only one five-year-old has ever won since the race was first run back in 1974 so Houblon Des Obeaux therefore has it to do. Last-time-out winners have won 10 of the last 16 renewals which is eye-catching given they took up less than 20% representation so there is one clear angle into the race. The only three last time out winners are Our Father, Restless Harry and Bellflower Boy. Jonjo O’Neill and J P McManus continue to be the connections to watch having won this race three times apiece, twice with 50/1 shots. O’Neill runs The Hill Of Uisneach and Palace Jester whilst McManus has Catch Me going for him. SHORTLIST OUR FATHER BELLFLOWERBOY THE HILL OF UISNEACH CATCH ME BUENA VISTA CONCLUSION Tricky to restrict it to just five but Our Father and Bellflower Boy deserve their place being the only two last-time-out winners rated under 150, Jonjo O’Neill has such a good record that one of his pair deserves a place and Thehillofuineach appeals more than Palace Jester and I wanted a runner from the two key guides so went with Buena Vista from the Cheltenham qualifier and Catch Me from the Leopardstown qualifier. OUR FATHER has gone up 19lbs to 148 for his last win but he was entered for the World Hurdle so could be much better than that rating and was ridden with any amount of confidence that day. He has run not since that victory in December to protect his mark so I can see why he is favourite. Could he be another Unsinkable Boxer for the Pipes in this race? BELLFLOWER BOY has crept in at the bottom of the handicap and won last time out which is a big positive for this race and the yard also won the Coral Cup with a lowly weighted contender not so long ago so he is not to be underestimated. Jonjo O’Neill has already had one handicap winner this week and his novice THEHILLOFUISNEACH runs here off 138 with Geraghty booked rather than the Albert Bartlett and he has to be of interest given his trainer’s uncanny knack of getting horses ready for Festival handicaps and this handicap in particular. CATCH ME caught the eye in both Irish qualifiers for this race and J P McManus has since bought him in a bid to improve on his fine record in this handicap. Catch Me has plummeted down the weights for a former Grade 1 winner and has the look of a plot for Edward O’Grady.BUENA VISTA won the 2010 running off 133 with a 3lbs claimer on board and then was an easy winner off 138 last year with a 5lbs claimer on top. This year he is off 140 and has a 10lbs claimer booked so is arguably even better handicapped. He will be primed of course and was fourth and second in the 2008 and 2009 runnings so appeals for each-way purposes again.

[jump racing 14/3/2012]

DIAMOND JUBILEE NATIONAL HUNT CHASE The Irish look to have a strong team this season, headed by the Willie Mullins-trained pair of Allee Garde and Soll (Daffern Seal, Four Commanders, Cottage Oak, Leggy Lad and Our Victoria complete their septet) and have a reasonable record of late, winning four of the last 14 runnings, though Chicago Grey’s victory 12 months ago made him their first successful favourite for 26 years and the first outright winning favourite for 15 years. The market has spoken in favour of Allee Garde over the last two weeks; Patrick Mullins rides him in preference to Soll, so he looks the number one Irish hope. Experience has been important in this race (two of the last five winners were on their thirteenth chase start when winning the NH Chase) so Soll has to overcome inexperience if he is to win, having only had two chase starts to date. Others not to have had at least three chase starts are Ben’s Folly, Bob ‘N’ You and Daffern Seal. Entering the race off the back of a decent effort is also a must; only two of the last 28 winners failed to finish in the first four last time out. More importantly, seven of the last ten winners finished first or second on their most recent start. On that basis I would be against Ben’s Folly, Bob ‘N’ You, Cottage Oak, Leggy Lad, Our Island and Strongbows Legend. Paul Nicholls would have been hoping for a significantly better race record than just one placed horse from 13 starters (of which nine started in the first five in the betting) and his Harry The Viking in the colours of Sir Alex Ferguson has been the long-time NH Chase ante-post favourite. SHORT LIST FOUR COMMANDERS TEAFORTHREE UNIVERSAL SOLDIER BLEINHEIM BROOK LIVELY BARON CONCLUSION Plenty survive the negative stats as, amazingly, there are no five or six-year-olds to oppose this year (perhaps connections are learning?). Allee Garde and Alfie Spinner arguably have the strongest form but neither won or finished in the first two last time out. The well-fancied Harry The Viking represents a top yard with a poor record in the race, which is a concern, so maybe we could have a mini-upset or bigger; seven of the last nine winners have started at a double figure price. FOUR COMMANDERS is a full brother to no less than the Gold Cup winner Kicking King and has shaped like the four mile trip could be what he wants when running well in defeat this season in good class races. Nina Carberry’s booking also catches the eye. TEAFORTHREE hared off too quick in the Feltham but has impressed either side of that and stamina is definitely his strong suit – he looks the pick of the British challenge. UNIVERSAL SOLDIER didn’t beat a lot at Towcester last time but he did it by 52 lengths. He also looks like an out-and-out stayer so he could finish in the mix, as could BLENHEIM BROOK, who runs here in preference to three other entries at this meeting and the Midlands National on Saturday. Lucinda Russell does very well with her few Cheltenham runners at all meetings in and out of the Festival and he could be the sneaky each-way overpriced horse, coming off a convincing defeat of Lie Forrit last time. LIVELY BARON represents Donald McCain and isn’t too far behind Harry The Viking on two pieces of form; he arrives here after an easy win last time out. Court Red Handed also survives the negative trends (and was second last time out) but I have to draw the line at five for the short list. NEPTUNE INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT NOVICES’ HURDLE Since its inception in 1971, the Irish have won 16 renewals including four of the last six. Willie Mullins has been responsible for two of their last three and he runs Sous Les Cieux and Make Your Mark. Ireland’s most influential guide has been the Deloitte Hurdle over 2m2f at Leopardstown on Irish Hennessy Day which Danoli, Istabraq and Hardy Eustace all contested before winning this prize, and it was won this season by Benefficent who beat Sous Les Cieux by just over a length. The result may have been different but for a mistake two out by the runner-up who shaped like he would love this extra 3f. Since 1974 only French Holly has won for horses aged seven or older, which is a statistic that counts against the likes of Baldadash, Fiulin, Natural High and Sunny Ledgend. Secret Edge is the only 4-year-old but you have to go back to Crystal Spirit in 1991 to find the last winner from that age group. Pattern-race form has been far more important than is the case for the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle, as only two of the last 14 winners had not contested a graded race over hurdles before; for that reason I am against Baldadash, Close House, Nagpur, Natural High, Nelson’s Bridge, Sunny Ledgend and The Tracey Shuffle. We must also concentrate on in-form horses as just one of the last 28 winners did not finish first or second last time out, which goes against Baldadash, Double Ross, Make Your Mark and Secret Edge. I don’t know what to make of Nicky Henderson’s woeful 0-23 record and especially as just two of those have finished any higher than tenth since 1990. On that basis, do I really want to back Simonsig at a relatively skinny price or his other runner, Nelson’s Bridge? That said, had Bobs Worth not been switched late in the day from the Neptune to the Albert Bartlett last season, he may well have ended that hoodoo given he posted an higher official rating in victory in that three-miler than First Lieutenant managed when winning this prize. SHORT LIST SOUS LES CIEUX MONKSLAND BATONNIER COTTON MILL CONCLUSION A five or six-year-old in the top six in the betting that finished or first or second last time out has won 24 of the last 26 runnings so I make no excuses for short listing the leading fancies that qualify. Simonsig isn’t shortlisted, however, given his trainer’s dreadful record in the race; neither is Make Your Mark who was only third last time. A bit harsh as that was in a Grade 1 race behind Boston Bob and on heavy ground he hated so I can see him go well back on better ground. SOUS LES CIEUX would be the trends pick having proved himself in pattern races, contested the best guide last time out when a bit unlucky in second, and his stable have won two of the last four Neptunes. MONKSLAND is also Irish-trained (Noel Meade, who won this race with Nicanor), has pattern-race winning form, won last time out and should love this decent ground so he too is very much a big player. BATONNIER may be best of the Brits though if they were undecided until late whether to run here rather than the Coral Cup, that could suggest that they may not quite view him as good enough but he is progressing quickly and is tough so can battle on into a top four position. I am guessing a little who may squeeze into the final slot in the top six in the betting and suspect it could be COTTON MILL who is 3-3 over hurdles and won a Grade 2 event last time out at Warwick and could just be under-rated for the John Ferguson yard. RSA CHASE Time For Rupert was clearly the class act heading into last season’s race but not even a favourite as strong as he could overcome three negative patterns, kicking off with the fact that the last 48 winners have all now run during the same calendar year which is what three big fancies in Grands Crus, First Lieutenant and Join Together will be attempting to overcome. The fastish ground would worry me for the latter as they thinking he was one for the 4m NH Chase earlier in the season and the other worry is that this race takes place on the Old Course whereas his impressive win in December was on the stiffer New Course. If the Feltham winner, Grands Crus, wins then he would be the first winner of that Kempton Grade 1 prize from 17 to have attempted the double to succeed. It is worth noting, however, that five horses to finish placed or fourth in the Feltham have won which brings in the third, Bobs Worth, who was also second in the Reynoldstown Chase and five placed horses from that race have gone on to win as well compared to just one winner. No RSA Chase winner has spent more than one season over hurdles for 21 years if you discount one back-end run from Lord Noelie. The latter stat would also be against Grands Crus as it would Mr Moonshine, Call The Police and Walkon. Last year’s favourite also failed to overcome his lack of chasing experience, having had just two chases over fences beforehand, whereas the last 12 winners have now all run at least three times over the larger obstacles – not good if you fancy Call The Police. For the first time in the history of the RSA Chase, the Irish completed a hat-trick of wins last season when Bostons Angel followed up the victories of Cooldine and Weapon’s Amnesty in the previous two years, so they are on a roll. All three winners contested the Dr P J Moriarty Novices’ Chase on their previous start but this year’s winner, Last Instalment, has been ruled out through injury so the race is represented by the runner-up and third, Call The Police and Lambro. Both are trained by Willie Mullins, who has had three winners and two seconds in this race. I bet he really wanted to run Sir Des Champs though but the owner relies on First Lieutenant instead who looks the pick of the Irish challenge going for a fourth straight win. Paul Nicholls, with two winners since 2006, has the best record of the Brits and trains Join Together. Seven-years-olds have won the last six runnings and make up most of this year’s field with only Call The Police (9), Mr Moonshine (8) and Walkon (8) the exceptions. With regard to Call The Police, note that novices aged 9+ have struggled as 20 years have passed since Miinnehoma last struck for those – 33 have tried and failed since then with none placing since 1993. Only one of the last 24 winners failed to win or finish second last time out so Lambro, Walkon and Mr Moonshine are not for me. SHORT LIST BOBS WORTH CANNINGTON BROOK (FIRST LIEUTENANT) CONCLUSION Grands Crus may have the class to overcome his statistical negatives but I wouldn’t want to be paying at around 6/4 to find out. Ten of the last dozen winners were seven or eight-year-olds that were novice hurdling last season, finished first or second last time out and had raced at least three times over fences; only Bobs Worth and Cannington Brook qualify on all counts. BOBS WORTH has placed in the right two races (Feltham & Reynoldstown), is 3-3 at Cheltenham, represents a top class yard with a victory in this race before and won the Albert Bartlett at last year’s Festival, as did Weapon’s Amnesty before he won here, so is very much the trends pick. CANNINGTON BROOK could be the each-way value. He is not flashy but that is the profile of most horses to run well in the RSA and he could not have been much more impressive that when winning easily at Haydock last time; he is certainly not one to be underestimated despite being forgotten about in the markets. Picking one more for the shortlist I would go with FIRST LIEUTENANT given he is a previous Festival winner and the Irish have won the last three runnings. He fails on stats not having run during the same calendar year but he arrives here off exactly the same break as last season before he won the Neptune. SPORTINGBET.COM QUEEN MOTHER CHAMPION CHASE Although Sizing Europe has plenty in his favour, for those wanting to steam in at a shortish price it maybe worth noting that 10 of the last 11 defending Champion Chase winners were beaten when attempting to defend their title the following season and nine of those started favourite or second-favourite. Should Big Zeb win, he would become only the third winner to regain his crown having lost it, following Royal Relief and Moscow Flyer. Previous Festival form is a recurring theme in these championship races, especially the Queen Mother Champion Chase, and 20 of the last 27 winners have won or finished placed at this meeting in the past – an obvious pointer to the last two winners of this race, Sizing Europe and Big Zeb. The other pair of the declared octet to place at this meeting in the past are Finian’s Rainbow and Wishfull Thinking, who were second in last year’s Arkle and Jewson respectively. Two placed horses in the Arkle, Buck House and Barnbrook Again, have also won the Champion Chase the following season since 1986 so Finian’s Rainbow supporters can be encouraged a little by that. The best guide by a country mile, however, has been the Tingle Creek Chase won by Sizing Europe, having featured eight of the last 11 winners. He beat Kauto Stone by eight lengths on that occasion with Wishfull Thinking back in fifth after treating it like the Prix de l’Abbaye. Gauvain fell at the eighth fence. Last season’s renewal and the Tied Cottage Chase fare next best featuring four winners apiece in the last ten years and both witnessed Sizing Europe beat Big Zeb into second. The Irish have had a terrific run of things lately, winning five of the last nine runnings; four of which were 1-2s. In fact, Sizing Europe led home an Irish 1-2-3-4 last season, underlining the strength in depth of Irish two-mile chasing of late (or highlighting the weakness of the British challenge) and they will be disappointed not to win it again with either Sizing Europe or Big Zeb. Realt Dubh gives the Irish a third winner but championship races at the Festival are very rarely won by seasonal debutants. Paul Nicholls has by far the best record of the home defence with four winners and five placed horses since 1999 and has switched Kauto Stone from the Ryanair to this race. Given that ten of the last 13 winners started at no bigger than 5/1 (29 of the last 30 started no bigger than 11/1), I don’t suggest you look too far away from the obvious and nine of the last ten winners had previously won a Grade 1 race which counts against I’m So Lucky and Gauvain. Big Zeb is up against it statistically being an 11-year-old, given that only Moscow Flyer has won aged 11 or older since 1977. SHORT LIST SIZING EUROPE KAUTO STONE FINIAN’S RAINBOW CONCLUSION Ten-year-olds have won twice in fairly recent times (One Man and Martha’s Son) so that wouldn’t put me off SIZING EUROPE. The fact that 10 of the last 11 defending Champion Chasers have been defeated is the niggle but he is a better horse this season than when he won last year’s Champion Chase and this is a weaker race as well, so what is not to like except the price? Personally, I think any odds-against is a good price, he is so much better than these if on his game and he has won the three key guides (last year’s race, Tingle Creek and Tied Cottage) in the last year. With Big Zeb being an 11-year-old, I have to look to KAUTO STONE and FINIAN’S RAINBOW as the horses that would be most likely to take advantage if the favourite underperforms and. Kauto Stone was second in the Tingle Creek, which has been by far the best guide, and is also trained by Paul Nicholls who has a fantastic record in the race. The worry with him would be quickening ground but he is only six whereas the big three are aged 9, 10 an 11 so he is the one with most scope to improve. Last year’s Arkle has been traditionally a good guide, though that is normally the winner rather than the runner-up but Finian’s Rainbow should hit the frame and is probably the safest each-way bet of the race. He is still improving and the small field will be in his favour. CORAL CUP The Irish have to be respected and when Carlito Brigante won very easily last season he was recording a seventh win for the raiders, which is terrific going given that they have supplied less than one-fifth of the total runners since this race was run in 1993. Their representatives this year are Carlito Brigante (off a 13lbs higher mark), Final Approach (10lbs higher than when winning last season’s Vincent O’Brien County Hurdle), Stonemaster (first time visor) and Silverhand (going well in this race two years ago until almost brought down 2 out and is 4lbs higher this time). The best British guide has been the Betfair Trophy at Newbury in mid-February, as it has featured three Coral Cup winners from the last seven occasions it has beaten the weather and looked a mighty strong renewal this season featuring the winners of endless big-race handicaps. Contenders from this year’s race are Get Me Out Of Here (2nd), Abergavenny (9th), Third Intention (10th) and Final Approach (18th). Six of the last nine winners of this viciously competitive handicap had also won on their last start so do not fail to underestimate the value of last-time-out victory. It is also worth recalling that fractionally under half of all handicap hurdle winners at the Festival (29-60) were won by last-time-out winners from under 20% representation. Last time out winners are Third Intention, Tenor Nivernais, Star Of Angels, Poole Master, Cape Dutch and Balgarry. Only four of the 18 winners had not won earlier in the season which puts me off Get Me Out Of Here, Spirit River, Stonemaster, Saphir River (never run in Britain or Ireland so a chance the Handicapper has guessed incorrectly with him though), Silverhand, Veiled, Megastar (though he has been suffering with a tooth abcess that he is over now) and Act Of Kalanisi. On the weights stats, no winner has officially been rated higher than 147 which is not good for Get Me Out Of Here, Carlito Brigante, Third Intention, Featherbed Lane and Final Approach. Also consider the freshness angle as three of the last six winners did not run during the same calendar year from low representation which brings in Golan Way, Spirit River (won this race two years ago), First Fandango, Saphir River and Silverhand. You may also want to put an extra tick by the name of second-season hurdlers, as they have been responsible for six of the last seven winners, and a red marker through horses aged eight or older, as only one of their 99 subsequent contenders since Top Cees won in 1998 has won despite them accounting for just under one-third of the total runners. Horses aged 8+ are Get Me Out Of Here, Golan Way, Cockney Trucker, Shoreacres, Silverhand, Star Of Angels, Consigliere, Son Of Flicka and Dare Me. SHORT LIST ABERGAVENNY POOLE MASTER BALGARRY TENOR NIVERNAIS FIRST FANDANGO CONCLUSION I make it that 9 of the 28 runners survive the negative patterns but we can’t have them all so I am concentrating on second-season hurdlers to finalise the short list as they have won 6 of the last 7 runnings. ABERGAVENNY tops the list having also run in the Betfair Trophy which is a good guide to the Coral Cup. He was also third in the Greatwood Hurdle here in November so has proved he handles a competitive big field handicap at Cheltenham. TENOR NIVERNAIS would probably want more rain but is a last-time-out winner and second season hurdler for a yard already with one Coral Cup in the bag so he is of interest. FIRST FANDANGO is a second-season hurdler that arrives off a break and both of those are positive stats. Fourth to Rock On Ruby the last time we saw him, he could be one at a big price to hit the frame for each-way purposes. Cape Dutch is a novice to be respected and his Musselburgh form with Cotillion could see both go well. Knight Pass is another second season hurdler to consider who survives the negative patterns. The other pair to really catch the eye are David Pipe’s POOLE MASTER and BALGARRY given his trainer has been the man for the Festival handicaps of late and both won last time out in a manner that suggested they are well ahead of the Handicapper so a 5lb penalty may not be enough to stop them. FRED WINTER JUVENILE NOVICES’ HANDICAP HURDLE The most intriguing statistic is that all seven winners were beaten on their first two hurdling starts and it is almost an identical story for the novice handicap chase equivalent race at this meeting where all but one of its seven winners had also failed to win on their first two starts at their new discipline. For that reason I am not a fan of Sportsmaster, Kapga De Cerisy, Kie, Moujik Borget, Ulck De Linn, Dark And Dangerous, Gorgeous Sixty, Une Artiste, Ardlui or Royal Bonsai. Kazlian won his second start over hurdles but meets so many positive criteria I want to keep him on board. The problem for connections, however, is that if their horse has been beaten on its first two hurdling starts then they are likely to have to seriously pull their finger out on their final qualifying run to force their way into the race, so no surprise to see five of the seven winners enter this race directly off the back of a win (brings in Argocat, Edeymi, Kapga De Cerisy, Kazlian, Vendor, Royal Bonsai and Lemon Drop Kid). It is also worth taking on board that four of the seven winners were either French-breds or French imports and those same figures also apply to horses from the top third in the handicap. Kapga De Cerisy, Colebrooke and Dark And Dangerous won at Sandown in February and three of the last five Fred Winter winners had won at the Esher track If you don’t believe that Flat race class is a significant factor then maybe think again as three of the seven winners were the highest rated Flat horse in the race; this is a big stat considering that just one horse can claim the mantle of being the highest-rated horse in the race from the Flat (unless joint top-rated of course) and the race attracts over 20 runners. Kazlian was rated 95 on the Flat so has to be a big player being the best horse form the Flat in the race. He is trained by David Pipe, who, with a winner, two seconds and third in the last five years, has clearly set his stall out to win this race. Given that fillies have been heavily outnumbered, they have a remarkably good record, having won three of the last six runnings; Une Artiste represents them this time alongside Gorgeous Sixty and Jackie’s Solitaire, SHORT LIST VENDOR EDEYMI ARGOCAT (KAZLIAN) LEMON DROP RED CONCLUSION KAZLIAN fits plenty of stats (last time out winner, French import, best Flat horse, trainer record in race) that I still want him on my side despite winning his second hurdles start. I usually prefer horses beaten on both their first two hurdling starts for handicapping purposes. EDEYMI and ARGOCAT appeal most of the Irish who have won two of the seven runnings. I like the fact both were beaten on their first time hurdling starts but were last time out winners and also their stables as they are both very cute when it comes to laying one out for a big handicap. VENDOR is a very short price but I can’t knock him on stats and he hails from the Alan King yard that fares so well in juvenile hurdles and went close with his two runners last year. By all accounts he is as good as their Triumph Hurdle fancies which means he is at least a stone well in if true. For a likely big-priced outsider LEMON DROP RED also has that profile I like of two defeats and then a win in three starts over hurdles and he might be the each-way horse at a big price. WEATHERBYS CHAMPION BUMPER The Irish lead 14-5 heading into the 2010 renewal but Cheltenian gave the home team a second victory in as many years last season so the vice-like grip of the Irish has started to weaken. On both occasions, it was also a 1-2 for the Brits which somewhat bizarrely was also the scenario on all five occasions when the Irish were sent home with their tails between their legs. We should not lose sight of the fact that the Irish have still won almost three times as many runnings (of which Willie Mullins was responsible for six) and from only approximately one-third of the total runners. Mullins runs Champagne Fever and Pique Sous this time in search of his Magnificent Seven. Just two of the 19 winners were beaten on their previous start though that should be balanced by the fact that the vast majority of runners will enter the race directly off the back of a victory. Still, that puts me off Glenwood Present, Ifandbutwhynot, Piano Concerto, Village Vic and Horatio Hornblower. Four of the last five winners entered the race unbeaten. Irish-bred horses have also accounted for 15 of those 19 winners but French-breds finally got on the board last season when Cheltenian put an end to their dreadful record where previously only one of their 25 runners had made the frame. Bumpers are, of course, all about potential but don’t lose sight of pure form either as Liberman, Cork All Star and Dunguib were unquestionably the clear form choices of their respective years. Given the terrible record of horses that have not run since Boxing Day at the Festival as whole (just Quevega has won in the last two years), it is therefore eye-opening that five of the last nine winners were put away specifically for this race having won before the new year, which could be significant, and all but three winners had not won a bumper comprising 14+ runners in the history of the race which is against leading fancies such as New Year’s Eve, Jezki and the Willie Mullins pair of Champagne Fever and Pique Sous. Finally, just five of the 19 winners could be found outside the first six in the betting so maybe don’t stray too far past the obvious. SHORT LIST MOSCOW MANNON ROYAL GUARDSMAN SIR JOHNSON (PIQUE SOUS) CONCLUSION MOSCOW MANNON’s latest victory when winning his third bumper (under a penalty) is probably the best piece of bumper form on offer; he looks the pick of the Irish challenge. Big money offers from prominent owners have been turned down for him and he could be the one the punters come for on the day – they usually hammer something. ROYAL GUARDSMAN could give Colin Tizzard his second winner of this race in the last three years, following on from Cue Card. Impressive at Ascot last time, he has won a bumper comprising 14+ runners, is Irish-bred and strikes me as the best of the British. SIR JOHNSON is 4-4 and been saved for this since winning at Aintree in the autumn (can’t run if have had 5 runs in bumpers) where he had Royal Guardsman behind. PIQUE SOUS may not have won a bumper with 14+ runners but Walsh rides and Mullins has won this race six times which I think compensates for that and I can’t really not have at least one Mullins horse on the short list as he is chasing a seventh win in this contest.

[jump racing 13/2/2012]

WILLIAM HILL SUPREME NOVICES’ HURDLE A fantastic race for the Irish in that this has easily been their most successful race at the Festival (won 8 of the last 13 runnings) registering six more victories than any other going back to 1977 and they are represented by 8 of the 19 runners namely Steps To Freedom, Galileo’s Choice, Midnight Game, Trifolium, Allure Of Illusion, Dylan Ross, Distant Memories and Simenon. The powerhouse stables of Paul Nicholls and Nicky Henderson have led the home defence with a couple of winners apiece. Twenty years have now have passed since Henderson’s last Supreme winner and he has sent a hatful with leading claims during that time including last season’s runner-up and third. Darlan and Tetlami represent him this time. Nicholls is represented by Prospect Wells and Ruby Walsh has chosen to ride which is surprising as I would have though he would have plumped for one of the three Willie Mullins horses. No one race stands out as a major guide but the Royal Bond and last season’s Weatherbys Champion Bumper have each thrown up a couple of Supreme winners in the last ten years. This season’s Royal Bond saw Galileo’s Choice finish second with Midnight Game well beaten but the testing ground would have been against him. Cinders And Ashes looks best set to represent last season’s Weatherbys Champion Bumper where he finished fifth last year not getting home but McCain says he is twice the physical specimen this season. Backing a last-time-out winner has been the way to go as 13 of the last 15 winners had won on the previous start which is the big stat against Darlan who fell last time out. Last-time-out fallers generally don’t win at the Festival though Henderson reports him none the worse for it. Other horses beaten last time out were Catch Timmy, Colour Squadron (also fell), Distant Memories, Dylan Ross, Hazy Tom, Jimbill, Prospect Wells, Simenon and Vulcanite. There wasn’t much between the winning records of NH-breds and ex-Flat horses up until fairly recently where they shared out renewals of the Supreme fairly evenly but, since a policy was put in force by course officials to provide good-to-soft ground for the opening-day, the NH-bred horses have started to come out on top to the extent they filled the first four places last year following on from successive 1-2-3-4-5’s in 2009 and 2010 which is a big swing. Those that didn’t run in bumpers and therefore might be worth opposing are Galileo’s Choice, Midnight Game, Prospect Wells, Vulcanite, Agent Archie, Distant Memories and Simenon. Rather than the number of runs a novice has had, I am more drawn towards whether they have had a recent prep-race or not. Captain Cee Bee was the big exception winning off the back of an absence of 115 days but every other winner bar French Ballerina (off for 68 days) since 1993 had ran within the previous 45 days which the likes of Cinders And Ashes, Distant Memories, Dylan Ross (that trio only by a week), Jimbill, Midnight Game, Prospect Wells have not. The big failure on this stat is Steps To Freedom who has not run for 123 days since he won here over course and distance. SHORTLIST TETLAMI MONTBAZON TRIFOLIUM (CINDERS AND ASHES) CONCLUSION A very open renewal and only three horses meet the criteria of coming through the bumper route and being a last-time-out winner that had run in the last 45 days so Montbazon, Trifolium and Tetlami pick themselves. As there are 19 runners, I would also add CINDERS AND ASHES as his last run was only a week earlier so, as he looks good on other patterns, it would be churlish therefore not to also consider him especially as he ran well for a long time in last season’s Champion Bumper which has been one of the two races to throw up more than one Supreme winner in the last ten years. MONTBAZON has been working sensationally of late according to Alan King and he may go one better than the same yard’s Medermit in this race three years ago. He won the same novice hurdle at Newbury last time out that two Supreme winners also won since 1995 (including Al Ferof) and looks to be coming right at the ideal time. TETLAMI is actually Flat-bred but never made it to that discipline and is unbeaten in three starts this season and represents a yard with two Supreme winners in the bag. He is professional and unflashy so doesn’t catch the eye like others but he is surely guaranteed to give a very good account and looks a decent each-way shot at a double-figure price. Davy Russell has chosen TRIFOLIUM over Midnight Game of the Gigginstown horses which is not what the betting suggested beforehand and he could just be the best of the Irish having impressed last time out when he won a Grade 2 very easily beating Simenon and previously ran second to the World Hurdle fancy So Young. RACING POST ARKLE TROPHY 11 of the last 12 winners were rated 142+ over hurdles and five of the six runners fit that bill with something to spare this season; Menorah (162), Al Ferof (154), Blackstairmountain (153), Cue Card (151) and Sprinter Sacre (149). The rank outsider Foil Dubh falls at the first hurdle then but at least he picks up prize money if he completes as they pay down to sixth in the Arkle. You may want to take on board, however, that five of the last 11 Arkle winners were the highest-rated hurdler in the race and that doesn’t include Sizing Europe who was officially the second-best hurdler entering the 2010 running but he had put up the highest figure over hurdles for an individual race over hurdles in his career so that is an extra tick for Menorah. Four of the last five winners had also all won a pattern race over hurdles from less than 25% of contenders just to underline the class angle over timber further still which brings in the last two winners of the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle, Menorah and Al Ferof, plus Grade 1 winner Blackstairmountain and the Grade 2 novice hurdle winner, Cue Card. Not Sprinter Sacre though, he only ran four times over hurdles. Surprisingly, given that just one of the last 20 winners started at any bigger than 11/1, the Arkle hasn’t been a good race for favourites, far from it in fact, as just two have won during that period so bear that in mind if you take a very short price about Sprinter Sacre. Nicky Henderson’s towering chaser seems sure to be sent off around Evens but do take on board that four of the last five favourites to be sent off at shorter than 2/1 have been beaten (Sybillin (3rd at 4/5), Mulligan (fell at 11/10), Sabin Du Loir (3rd at 5/4) and Decoupage (3rd at 7/4)). Fancied horses still very much hold the call however as 15 of the last 19 winners started either second, third or fourth favourite which brings in Al Ferof, Menorah and Cue Card. As for the best guides, the November Novices’ Chase won by Al Ferof has been responsible for three winners and two seconds since 2002, the Henry VIII Chase also won by Al Ferof has featured two of the last seven Arkle winners and seven of the last Irish-trained winners contested their own Arkle in late January but this year’s winner, Flemenstar, is not entered. Blackstairmountain was fifth. Just one front runner has led since 1980 which may not be ideal for Cue Card if they decide to go from the front with him again which is supposedly the plan Trainer stats to take on board are that three of the big fancies, Sprinter Sacre (Henderson), Al Ferof (Nicholls) and Menorah (Hobbs) all hail from stables with a good record in the race as Henderson has won three Arkles, Nicholls a brace, and Hobbs took last year’s running having also saddled a runner-up and third in two of the previous four runnings. Only two of the last 25 winners failed to finish first or second last time out which is the big sticking point with Menorah who fell last time out. Blackstairmoutain only finished fifth last time out on heavy ground that he couldn’t handle in the Irish Arkle. Al Ferof was third in the Victor Chandler Chase but it would be harsh to oppose the latter for that reason given that he was taking on Champion Chase horses rather than novices. SHORT LIST AL FEROF CUE CARD CONCLUSION Applying all the trends, we are left with nothing so we have to be forgiving with some of the patterns to form a two-horse shortlist in this six runner race. Given the poor record of favourites and the fact he hasn’t won a pattern race over hurdles then we have to take on Sprinter Sacre from a trends perspective. AL FEROF has the stronger trends profile having won two of the key guides, being rated as high as 154 over fences and representing a yard with two winners in the race. The only statistic that CUE CARD falls down on is he is likely to set the pace as front runners have struggled but given this is the smallest Arkle field in history, I would argue that front running could now be an advantage rather than otherwise. The highest rated hurdler in the race, Menorah, has the ability to win a normal Arkle if his jumping stands the test and that is the main concern with him coming off two incompletions this season from four jumps starts and having looked hairy on another occasion. JLT SPECIALTY HANDICAP CHASE Given the last 12 winners were rated no higher than 143 then it can be argued that the top seven in the handicap have it to do; Quantitativeeasing (155), Noland (148), Hold On Julio (145), Mon Mome (145), Zarrafakt (145), Our Mick (144) and Magnanimity (144). All I would say, however, is that the last four winners were rated 142 or 143 so all bar the top two in the handicap are in the ballpark area and I would only dismiss that pair on ratings stats. That said, given that no winner has defied a handicap mark of 150+ for 29 years, you are taking a massive risk if allying yourself to the possible favourite, Quantitativeeasing. Hold On Julio is trained by Alan King who has been the man to follow in recent seasons with two wins and a close-up third since 2004. Nicky Henderson also has a fine JLT record (a winner and five places from last 11 runners) and runs the novice, Mossley, in addition to Quantitativeeasing. Paul Nicholls, on the other hand, is 0-15 and runs Noland Both Hold On Julio and Quantitativeeasing won last time out and that angle has also been a strong guide of late with six of the last nine winners also successful on their most recent start from approximately 20% representation. The only other last time out winner is Zarrafakt Certainly look to oppose horses over the age of ten as horses aged 11+ are 0-36 to even place since 1997 which means cheerio to Noland, Mon Mome, Mount Oscar and Runshan. At the other end of the experience scale, novices have won three of the last eight runnings and that would very likely have been four but for Bensalem’s penultimate-fence fall two years ago, though that is always the downside risk when supporting a novice of course. Novices lining up this year are Our Mick, Mossley, Bottman, Baile Anrai and Pentiffic. Previous Festival form is a big factor for many punters during the week and, of all the handicaps to be run over these four days, it is this three-mile chase where previous Festival form has had most impact with half of the last 14 winners having previously placed at worst at this meeting in the past. That is a positive for Quantitativeeasing (second in the novice handicap chase), Noland (won Supreme and third in Arkle), Mon Mome (third in Gold Cup), Tullamore Dew (second Coral Cup and third in the novice handicap chase), Mossley (second in Albert Bartlett) and The Package (second in this race two years ago). With only one of the last ten winners failing to finish third or better last time out that counts against Noland, Mon Mome, Magnaninity, Mossley, The Package, Mount Oscar, Baile Anrai, Alfie Sherrin, Bottman, Riguez Dancer, Pentiffic and Runshan. Despite throwing up shock 50/1 and 33/1 winners during the last five years, over a longer period of time this has been a punter-friendly handicap with the other nine winners since 1999 sent off in the first four in the betting. Over an even longer period of time, the second-favourite has a remarkable record winning on eight occasions since 1984. SHORT LIST TULLAMORE DEW ZARRAFAKT BILLIE MAGERN MOSSLEY (HOLD ON JULIO) CONCLUSION TULLAMORE DEW appeals most on patterns as he arrives off a blinding good run, is in the right age and weight bracket and has twice placed at the Festival before in big field handicaps so maybe he can give Nick Gifford his first Cheltenham Festival winner. ZARRAFAKT is one of just three horses to come off a last-time-out win which is a big stat and he also meets the weight and age trends so he also makes the short list and, although he isn’t officially a novice, he is in all but name having only had five chase starts and novices have a terrific recent record in the race. MOSSLEY is a novice and represents Henderson who has a fine record in this handicap and he is in the right area of the handicap and makes some each-way appeal so also makes the short list as does BILLIE MAGERN who is likely to be a big price but he survives all the negative patterns and Nigel Twiston-Davies has won this race before. I also include the 145-rated HOLD ON JULIO as he is strong on positive stats being trained by Alan King and being a last time out winner and, as I wrote in my book, I think we should give horses rated just over 143 some leeway (that is the only stat holding him back) as the last four winners were rated only fractionally lower than his mark of 145. STAN JAMES CHAMPION HURDLE I would argue that the single strongest trend for any the four big championship races at the Cheltenham Festival is that 24 of the last 28 winners of the Champion Hurdle also won on their previous start so I can’t advise a better starting point which means that from any trends-based short list we have to overlook over half the field namely Rock On Ruby, Oscars Well, Overturn, Brampour, Celestial Halo and Kalann. Given that the last 17 winners ran during the same calendar year (two of the last three Champion Hurdles favourites and a second-favourite failed on this stat), I would make that the second most important statistic of this race and that doesn’t bode well again for Rock On Ruby or Overturn who were both last seen behind Binocular in the Christmas Hurdle. Binocular has won the Kingwell Hurdle since which is an excellent trial and was second to Overturn in the Fighting Fifth Hurdle which is also a very good recent trial but the fact remains that dodgy stat for Binocular, however, is that just one of the last 21 Christmas Hurdle winners to run here has won so he wouldn’t be a trends-based horse for me either. The last three winners were breaking their Cheltenham duck in victory. It had previously seemed to be important to have recorded a course success beforehand but that can surely no longer be viewed as the case but a previous win-or-placed effort at the Festival before can only be viewed as a positive and 17 of the last 26 winners notched up a first-four slot at this meeting 12 months prior to winning the Champion Hurdle which is good news for fans of Hurricane Fly and Zarkandar of the sextet I have not overlooked from a trends perspective so far but is also a positive for Rock On Ruby and Oscars Well. However, Zarkandar is a five-year-old and they are now just 1-87 since 1985 which is more than enough to put me off a win bet but, in fairness, 5yos have a good place record recently as during the last five seasons 16 five-year-olds have gone to post of which five have hit the frame at worst and two more in Crack Away Jack and Starluck weren’t too far away from placing either. Going back to last Festival’s form and the previous year’s running of the Champion Hurdle still rates as the best guide as seven of the last 11 winners finished in the first three 12 months earlier. Only Hurricane Fly of last season’s 1-2-3 takes his chance and he also won last year’s Rabobank Champion Hurdle at the Punchestown Festival which is the joint-best Irish guide alongside the Istabraq Hurdle at Leopardstown where Oscars Well (3rd) is the only representative. The Irish are chasing a ninth victory in the last 14 runnings. SHORT LIST HURRICANE FLY ZAIDPOUR CONCLUSION With half the field not being last-time-out winners and the stats being poor for 5yos (Zarkandar) and the Christmas Hurdle winner (Binocular), that only really leaves HURRICANE FLY of the major fancies that survives the negative patterns and as far I am concerned, he fully deserves his odds-on status and can record his eleventh Grade 1 success. I take the view that this year’s renewal wouldn’t be quite as good as last year’s race and I also thought he won last year’s Champion Hurdle with something up his sleeve. From a trends perspective, the each-way value or betting-without Hurricane Fly could lie with ZAIDPOUR who is a last-time-out winner, the right kind of age and is Irish-trained in a race where they have a great record of late. The fact that Mullins relies on him rather than Thousand Stars as his second string could be interesting and he might be ridden to finish second. What price a Mullins 1-2? GLENFARCLAS CROSS COUNTRY HANDICAP CHASE If you fancy a British-trained horse, you may want to think again as they have failed to win any of the seven runnings from just over half the total runners. If that is not embarrassing enough, the home ‘defence’ have only secured five place positions and three of those came in the inaugural running in 2005. The Brits this year are Maljimar, Balthazar King, Double Dizzy, Midnight Haze, Fortification, Dream Alliance, Wedger Pardy and Gone To Lunch and are not for me. Supporting a horse in the first three in the betting is an obvious starting point as they have won 12 of the 14 races run over Cheltenham’s cross-country course and also six of the seven runnings of this particular race and I will be surprised if those positions are not taken by Scotsirish, Sizing Australia and Uncle Junior. Enda Bolger has been responsible for a jaw-dropping 15 of the 35 races staged on this particular banks course including four of the seven runnings of this race and Garde Champetre is his only runner this year but he is cracking on now at the age of 13. As for the best guides, the handicap chase won by Garde Champetre in December (when seven horses took the wrong course) has been a stronger pointer than the conditions event in November won by Uncle Junior of the two cross-country races run at Cheltenham earlier in the season leading it 5-3 interms of Festival winners taking part. The best Irish guide run during the same season has been the P.P. Hogan Chase at Punchestown in February having highlighted three winners on the spin between 2006-2008 and saw Scotsirish beat Garde Champetre last month. Of the 35 cross-country races staged at Cheltenham, only Uncle Junior of last 24 was winning on his cross-country debut of any kind which is against Gone To Lunch, Fortification, Midnight Haze and Dancing Tornado, SHORT LIST SCOTSIRISH SIZINGAUSTRALIA UNCLE JUNIOR CONCLUSION Enda Bolger may have a great record but Garde Champetre is 13 now and although he did win the handicap here in December he would have been well beaten but for the leading septet taking the wrong course and this quick ground will also be against him so I prefer to concentrate on the stat that the first three in the betting dominate these races and I make no apologies for making Scotsirish, Sizing Australia and Uncle Junior the three to concentrate on. If the prices aren’t juicy enough for you then why not consider perming them up in forecasts and tricasts as the places are also usually dominated by the leading fancies in these races? SCOTSIRISH was my idea of the most likely winner of the December handicap when he took the wrong course ahead of his stable mate UNCLE JUNIOR who won the November conditions event. Scotsirish’s two-mile Grade 1 speed is likely to be a factor on this quickish ground (faster than the Old Course as they can’t water the cross country course as well). He has the most toe and ability of these for me and I fancy him to kill them for speed on this fast ground and make him my number one fancy for the race having also won the P.P Hogan. Uncle Junior has to be respected being the first horse in years to win a cross country race on his debut in this sphere and there isn’t much wrong either with last year’s winner SIZING AUSTRALIA who loved the similarly fast ground and Henry de Bromhead is a top trainer at peaking a horse for the big day. OLBG MARES HURDLE This is the just the fifth running of the OLBG Mares Hurdle for the David Nicholson Trophy so it is going to take a good few years for patterns to establish themselves so I can’t offer too many angles especially with Quevega turning up and winning every time so I will keep this short and sweet and head straight to the conclusion as there are no real patterns to speak of as yet. SHORT LIST QUEVEGA KENTFORD GREY LADY OUR GIRL SALLEY CONCLUSION Very hard to get away from QUEVEGA of course given that Voler La Vedette and Unaccompanied don’t run and she will have to run about a stone below form not to win. The inaugural running was won by a novice and although first-season hurdlers were no match for Quevega in the next three runnings, Sparky May, finished a clear second representing novices last year and Aura About You and Over Sixty finished third and fourth in 2009 so I will make KENTFORD GREY LADY as the trends each-way selection or betting without the favourite as she strikes me as the best novice in this race just ahead of Swincombe Flame. I would fancy her and OUR GIRL SALLEY to reverse Ascot form with Violin Davis who stole the Grade 2 3m mares race at Ascot last time from the front. Our Girl Salley emerged as the best horse at the weights so she is also worth looking at in the each-way or without-favourite markets. The Irish have fared well outside of Quevega and I rate Our Girl Salley marginally a better mare than Shop Dj though the latter is coming right at the right time. PULTENEY LAND INVESTEMENTS NOVICES’ HANDICAP CHASE As with its hurdling equivalent at the Festival (the Fred Winter), this novices’ handicap is a race where it has proven best not to have shown too much of your hand too early as all but one of the seven winners had been beaten on their first two chase starts. Non qualifiers on this system are Going Wrong (though the only horse to overcome this stat was also trained by Ferdy Murphy), Bless The Wings, FalconIsland, Triolo D’Alene, Mic’s Delight, Charminster, Cucumber Run, That’ll Do and Educated Evans. All seven entered the race directly off the back of a win or second-place finish which is against Saint Are, The Panama Kid, Battle Group, White Star Line, Charminster, Cucumber Run and Vino Griego. In fact, horses to either win or finish second last time out have recorded four 1-2-3’s in seven runnings and a 1-2 on another occasion. Only last year’s winner, Divers, had won one more than once over fences which puts me off Hunt Ball, The Panama Kid, Going Wrong, Bless The Wings, Falcon Island, Quincy Des Pictons, Owen Glendower, Triolo D’Alene, Mic’s Delight, Carrick Boy, Cucumber Run, That’ll Do and Educated Evans. Ferdy Murphy’s grey did, however, retrieve statistical matters to a point by giving seven-year-olds yet another winner as they were also successful in the first four runnings. Declared seven-year-olds are Hunt Ball, Battle Group, Bless The Wings, FalconIsland, Owen Glendower, Ackertac, Cucumber Run, Vino Griego, That’ll Do and Educated Evans. Five of the last six winners were rated 132-135 which is exactly the bottom half of the weights from White Star Line downwards . No one race has featured in two or more of the campaigns of the seven winners so far but make a note of the Steel Plate and Sections Novice Chase won by Grands Crus over course and distance back in November as the fifth, sixth and seventh last season went on to finish first, second and fourth in this Festival handicap. Vino Griego finished fifth in that race this season. SHORT LIST ACKERTAC HARPSY CHORD (WHITE STAR LINE) (VINO GRIEGO) CONCLUSION Only Harpsy Chord and Ackertac survive the negative trends of having (a) not won more than once fences, (b) were beaten on their first two chase starts and © arrive here off the back of a win or second place finish. Both also fall into the right area of the handicap with 5 of the last 6 winners rated between 132-135 but ACKERTAC just edges it from a trends point of view given the good record of 7-year-olds. He is a maiden over fences though but that hasn’t stopped horses hitting the frame in this race in the last two years so he makes each-way appeal. He also finished sixth in the Albert Bartlett last year and 3 of the 7 winners ran in a novice hurdle at last year’s Festival. HARPSY CHORD appeals most of the Irish and his second to NH Chase fancy Soll two starts back could be very good form indeed for a horse running off bottom weight. WHITE STAR LINE only misses out as he was third last time out rather than second and he wasn’t beaten far by a proper horse in Hidden Cyclone last time so is another Irish horse with a good each-way chance and especially as he hasn’t had good ground since he was second to another proper horse in First Lieuntenant over hurdles so is a potential big improver for this better surface than he has been racing on in Ireland. Last year’s fourth VINO GRIEGO races off a 1lb lower mark and has more experience now so I can see him repaying each-way support again at a big price. He ran in the same race at Cheltenham in November which was a big factor for this handicap last year and only fails on not finishing first or second last time out but that was over hurdles in a very competitive 18-runner Ascot handicap. He may still be a maiden over fences but he has a decent shout at placing again at worst.

[Cheltenham Preview Nights]

Re: Cheltenham Preview Nights CHELTENHAM FESTIVAL PREVIEW at the LYGON ARMS, CHIPPING CAMPDEN The Panel was chaired by Stewart Machin and professional punter and author Alan Potts (AP), Alan King’s assistant trainer Noel Williams (NW), leading Welsh trainer Tim Vaughan (TV), racing commentator and broadcaster Richard Hoiles (RH) and Sean Graham Bookmakers’ on-course layer Ronan Graham (RG). All 27 races were discussed. SUPREME NOVICES’ HURDLE AP: The English won’t win it. Not seen any to impress me, they all look Plumpton horses to me. How Darlan is favourite for falling over last time out heaven only knows, everything was still on the bridle 2 out as they crawled and his previous form means nothing. I like Midnight Game who looks a different horse going left-handed to right-handed and is his ex Flat speed should be suited to the likely decent ground. NW: I can vouch that Montbazon put in a sensational piece of work recently as Alan reported. I thought he was wet behind the years at start of season and he will only be better next year but he is improving fast. He needs to step up again but he has an each-way chance at the very least. TV: Probably Jimbill will be our runner. He’s definitely coming back to form but needs to improve a lot. He beat Montbazon in a bumper but that horse is improving fast and I would make Alan King’s horse a big player and just prefer him to Cinders And Ashes. I can’t have Darlan, Cheltenham is a different story to flat tracks as you have to graft. RH: If Zarkandar had fallen 2 out at Newbury and not Darlan would he have shortened as much for the Champion Hurdle as much as Darlan did for the Supreme? Seems odd to me that he has cut on the basis that some think he would have with ease. I do like Cinders And Ashes, he has impressed me on all his starts and gets the vote. I also like Prospect Wells who has been forgotten about and is overpriced on his form with Steps To Freedom and he has had a wind op since he got stuck in bad ground at Sandown in the Tolworth. RG: No banker for punters this year unlike the last three years. Darlan is the price he is now due to his connections. I can see him shortening up further as momentum gets behind him. I do fancy the Irish but don’t think Galileo’s Choice has done enough. Allure Of Illusion is a big price and my each-way selection. He was third to Steps To Freedom and Montbazon at Aintree last season giving weight and there is no way in the world he is a 33/1 shot, especially with five places available (with Sky Bet). ARKLE TROPHY AP: Sprinter Sacre will slaughter Al Ferof. There are 13 fences in the Arkle and he will take 2 lengths out of him at each fence. As for staying up the hill, there are two fences in the home straight in the Arkle these days which won’t suit Al Ferof. The only horse that beat Sprinter Sacre is Sprinter Sacre. He is the best novice chaser I have ever seen. NW: Sprinter Sacre is obviously very high class and has loads of speed but I can’t get it out of my head that he didn’t get up the hill last year and I can’t see him doing it this year either. I’m an Al Ferof fan as he loves that hill and is also very high class. TV: Sprinter Sacre should win but to find the winner you have to often go back to the top rated hurdler which is Menorah and Hobbs’ horses are starting to come right now and think he can be seriously competitive and I would rather go for him each-way. I would rather back Hurricane Fly at a similar price than Sprinter Sacre who could be a bridle horse and I don’t like them at Cheltenham. Al Ferof is a grinder and I do like them at Cheltenham. RH: I do think Sprinter Sacre will get up the hill unless he is too enthusiastic and they going absolutely nuts. He has jumped immaculately every single time. If they go slowly then Sprinter Sacre could pull too hard but the market looks about right and Menorah can be the one to take advantage if Sprinter Sacre has any flaws. I’m just trying to find a scenario how he can beat. A complete no bet race for me. RG: Not impossible could only be only six or seven runners. We will be best price about Sprinter Sacre on Tuesday morning. It’s not that we don’t fancy him, we just think he and Al Ferof should be closer together in the betting. At Evens Sprinter Sacre is a lay. CHAMPION HURDLE AP: I don’t really expect Hurricane Fly to get beat. This might sound like an odd thing to say but I don’t think Binocular is at his best going left-handed. It’s a mark of his inconsistency that when he won the Champion Hurdle he started the biggest price of his life. I don’t fancy Zarkandar as his Newbury form isn’t good enough. Rock On Ruby could be the one for second. NW: It is difficult for the 5yos so Zarkandar isn’t for me. I know we won it with a 5yo in Katchit but being honest it wasn’t the best running, we have to be realistic about that. Rock On Ruby can be the danger to Hurricane Fly. TV: Hurricane Fly is an absolute certainty. I can’t see Zarkandar having a Scooby-do of a chance and he came back with a mucky nose last time. Walsh hasn’t even hinted about switching to any of the Nicholls horses. Hurricane Fly is the bet of the meeting and it’s a joke he is as big as Evens. RH: The market isn’t as one-sided as the betting suggests for me. I’ve traded out of my Binocular bet but happy to stick with my ante-post bet on Rock On Ruby. Why he chased Overturn at Kempton which set it up for Binocular I don’t know so I still think he is a big player and each-way without Hurricane Fly still makes plenty of appeal. RG: No matter how good he is we have to go and try and lay Hurricane Fly at odds-on and I ask myself the question was last year’s Champion Hurdle as good as many think? Not in my opinion. No one wanted to back him at Leopardstown. If Darlan and Sprinter Sacre get beat I will be taking him on big time. I can’t see Binocular drifting and he would be for me. TUESDAY SHOULDER RACES AP: I can’t have Quantitativeeasing off top weight in the JLT but am fascinated by The Package who has not been out of the first three in four starts at Cheltenham but the price is pretty skinny now. He’d be my choice, shame about the price now. A horse owned by Alan Potts won the Cross Country last year so I got my usual selection of well done messages! It’s embarrassing to think I even have an interest in this race so no selection and apparently the other Alan Potts gets equally hacked off when asked for tips! Quincy De Pictons is an interesting runner in the novice handicap and I don’t think I’ve seen a much easier winner this season than him at Chepstow. The yard know how to land a coup and I feel they will know how to get him spot on. NW: I’m still trying to get it out of Alan whether Walkon will run in the JLT but Hold On Julio will and although he got baffled by The Railway Fences last time at Sandown he still won very well and it’s a blessing he has had not had a run since then as I was desperate to see him go here as he goes well fresh and his handicap mark was preserved. Double Dizzy would be off the radar for most people but was third here in November and also won the Sussex National and would be my each-way selection in the Cross Country. Bless The Wings is on target for the novice handicap chase and his mark of 138 is in the right kind of ballpark for the race. I think he is worth an extra length or two on his last win as idled a bit as hit the front a bit early. TV: Bottman will run in the JLT and ran a blinder at Cheltenham last time where he ran on like a train after being flat out all the way and this is3flonger. He has an engine but whether he is quite good enough I don’t know but I feel he can be competitive off a featherweight. I’ll keep the Cross Country simple and go for Scotsirish. The plan is to run Saint Are in the novice handicap chase. I am convinced he is better on a flat, left-handed track on faster ground. He needs everything in his favour to win. RH: I like previous Festival form in the handicaps so Tullamore Dew appeals in the JLT. I’ll go with A New Story e/w in Cross Country even though he is a geriatric. I like Kennford Grey Lady e/w without Quevega in the Mares Hurdle. She got a shocker of a ride at Ascot last time and is better than the winner that day, Violin Davis. Vino Griego is a back-to-lay as he travels like a dream but doesn’t finish strongly. He was fourth last year in the novice handicap chase when he tanked through the race and is 1lb lower and I hear they will hold on to him for longer this time. He is too big at 25/1. RG: The JLT is usually won by a fancied English horse and Tullamore Dew makes lots of appeal having twice placed at the meeting before. I’d be worried that Scotsirish will get 3m7f in the Cross Country and he is favourite so I will be keeping Sizing Australia and Maljimar on my side. I hear Shop Dj is working well and she could run well in the Mares Hurdle and won convincingly last time. Mark Winstanely has put up Triolo D’Alene has his nap of the first day in the novice handicap and Mick Fitzgerald his nap of the meeting at our Belfast Preview night. I quite like Dessie Hughes’ White Star Line who despite being a maiden over fences, he has only had good ground once and on that occasion ran First Lieutenant fairly close and this has been the target for a long time. NEPTUNE INVESTMENTS NOVICES’ HURDLE AP: I think that Simonsig could outclass what look moderate rivals. Fact is when he second at Sandown he had a subsequent Grade 2 winner 16 lengths behind. If he is to be beaten then it will be by a grinder and Poole Master might be the one as the longer the race went on last time the better he looked. NW: Alan is still undecided if we run Batonnier here or in the Coral Cup off 138. I think Alan fancies him to run a big race wherever he goes. He is improving fast in a short space of time. I think Secret Edge will go for this and gets a 9lbs 4yo allowance though he does look pretty exposed. This is his trip though and was only beaten 5l by Batonnier last time and he is tough. TV: Simonsig looks a bridle horse and Henderson loves speed horses. He is all class but I didn’t like the way he cut out at Sandown but the fast ground could help in this respect. RH: The two best staying novices are Fingal Bay for the Brits and Boston Bob for the Irish but both are unlikely so it’s an odd race in that respect. I think Simonsig is a two-miler and he is a good horse but a bit like Darlan and want to see what he can do off the bridle. Monksland now looks best of the Irish after Boston Bob likely to switch. RG: We hear Boston Bob definitely goes for the Albert Bartlett this evening. Shame as this was the race tailor made for him but probably dictated by the yard having other runners. I couldn’t have Sous Les Cieux on my mind who has no turn of foot and think Make Your Mark is the best of the Mullins pair in this race and he is crying out for decent ground. Cotton Mill if he runs here is overpriced. RSA CHASE AP: I’d run Grands Crus in the Jewson. I came away from Newbury when he won over 3m and thought I had seen a very high class 2m4f horse. I put Bobs Worth’s poor jumping down to racing right handed and to finish as close as he has the last twice is a testament to his talent. He is unbeaten in three starts at Cheltenham and looks every inch a typical grinding RSA type and is the guaranteed stayer so with gritted teeth I tip another Henderson horse. NW: Now Invictus is out it is possible Walkon could run and he is crying out for 3m. I wouldn’t even be considering the Gold Cup with Grands Crus, I think he will struggle to get a strongly run 3m let alone the longer Gold Cup trip. Bobs Worth will be better left-handed and by all accounts he wasn’t tip top last time when second to Invictus last time like he will be for this. TV: No brainer for me, I would Grands Crus here. Join Together is another I like and he is a real stayer so this race will suit. Most RSA Chase winners have a recent prep race and Grands Crus hasn’t run since Boxing Day. I wouldn’t back Bobs Worth for all the tea in China. RH: Bobs Worth is a tough horse but I am worried about his jumping and not sure it is down to running right handed. The accumulation of lots of little mistakes is more worrying that belting one for me. Vibes suggest Grands Crus more likely to run here but who knows? Most interesting horse is First Lieutenant who has been trained for this for a long time and I fancy him to run better than his form so far on better ground. RG: Once non runner no bet came in we were hit with bets for Sir Des Champs but he may go for the Jewson. You couldn’t give Bobs Worth away at Ascot and he didn’t jump a fence but was still only beaten 3 lengths so that was an outstanding performance. My worry with First Lieutenant is that his trainer has had only 3 winners this year and they were Rathlin, Rathlin and Rathlin. Tom Costello sold Join Together to Nicholls and is adamant he needs soft ground. QUEEN MOTHER CHAMPION CHASE AP: I think Sizing Europe will win but I can’t bring myself to back a 10-year-old in a Grade 1 2m chase. Big Zeb is even older and even Finian’s Rainbow is 9 which older than I like for 2m chasers. I really hope Henrietta Knight doesn’t get it in her head to run Somersby here. I think Sizing Europe will win more or less by default. NW: No strong opinion but Sizing Europe should win, Big Zeb should be second and something not good enough should be third. TV: Sizing Europe is an absolute certainty. You have to be bold at these preview nights! His Cheltenham record speaks for itself. RH: I was negative on Finian’s Rainbow in the Arkle last year and am again here, they constantly change their mind about his trip. I think he has a hole in him when he comes off the bridle. I think Sizing Europe wins. He is a different horse now they have changed their schedule in how he travels over. He is more solid that Sprinter Sacre or Hurricane Fly for me. RG: Sizing Europe was 10/1 last year but he is Evens this year so we have to take him on. Has he peaked too soon this year? Bar the front three in the market, I don’t think anything else can win. Big Zeb is better value at 5/1. 5/4 a place Big Zeb appeals. WEDNESDAY SHOULDER RACES AP: Stamina is the biggest question mark over my fancy Alfie Spinner in the NH Chase. He is a sound jumper and has a bit of class and an experienced amateur in Sam Waley-Cohen but his sire, Alflora, doesn’t get many stout stayers. Regards the Coral Cup, just to mention Poole Master again as he is 9lbs well in if he gets in and imagine this is the main aim if he squeezes in the handicap. The Handicapper has definitely dropped a clanger with Ulck De Linn for the Fred Winter. He has run not in Britain but has run in a 1m7f chase in France. The horse he beat then easily by 5 lengths was then second in a Grade 1. This is definitely not a 130 horse and the Handicappers have been making big mistakes about French hurdling form for the last five years. I like Red Inca as well but he has had to qualify in Britain and looks to have been lined up for this race. He can be best of the British horses. I don’t watch or have any interest in any bumpers. NW: Robbie Henderson is booked to ride Iron Chancellor for us in the NH Chase. He was run off his feet at Fakenham and is probably not classy enough though I expect him to relish four miles and he has earned his right to run. I like Charlie Longsdon’s Universal Soldier and don’t dismiss Mid Div And Creep hitting the frame at a big price as he was second in the Foxhunters’ last year. We covered Batonnier earlier on but I spotted Star Of Angels for David Pipe in the Coral Cup if he gets in as he has had problems so is possibly unexposed despite his age. We run Ardlui and Vendor in the Fred Winter. Vendor has high class form in France but despite two falls we’ve seen little evidence he is a bad jumper. On a line through our Triumph Hurdle horses, he would be every bit as good as those and he is much better than a 129 horse which he runs off. Royal Guardsman would be my fancy for the Bumper. TV: Bens Folly might not like the ground in the NH Chase and has plenty to find on ratings and Our Island wants bottomless ground and it looks like being fast. We run First Fandango in the Coral Cup as feel it is harder to win the Martin Pipe and he loves fast ground that he hasn’t had this season. He is in exceptionally good form at home and could sneak a place at a very big price and he is one of my better each-way chances of the week. No strong view on the Fred Winter but Vendor looks to have the right profile and his handicap mark looks very accommodating shall we say. RH: Will Biddick has been booked for Harry The Viking in the NH Chase who was once a professional jockey which is allowed if back to amateur status but just think he is a bit slow and there is no Jonjo O’Neill spot the yak game this year to choose from. Megastar is one of my bets of the week in the Coral Cup. He has had a long running tooth abcess all season and has now had the tooth taken out and he seems that much happier. He has run well in the Bumper and Neptune in the last two Festivals and only has 136 to run off here which looks well treated on his Bumper form and he is way too big at 40/1 and really gone under the radar and likes good ground too. The Fred Winter is one of my favourite races of the Festival and I totally agree with Alan Potts that ex-French horses get in very well in. I backed Ulck De Linn a few weeks back and I also give a chance to Venetia Williams’ Moujik Borget. He ran behind Une Artiste last time with no blinkers which he raced with in France so expect them to come back on and he also has good-ground form in France. No real view on the Bumper. Of the horses I have called, Village Vic has travelled best. RG: The only one they want to be on is Allee Garde recently and no one wants his stable mate Soll in the NH Chase and I can see the gamble continuing right until the off. Glens Boy could be one at a big price in this race for Henrietta Knight. The Coral Cup looks impossible but It’s A Gimme sticks out to me who is trained by Jonjo O’Neill who loves getting one ready for races like this. Musawam is 33/1 but is better than his form figures suggest for Gordon Elliott for the Fred Winter and if there is any money for him then I would be very interested. The Irish bumper horses don’t look superstars but Moscow Mannon would be 5/2 if trained by Willie Mullins. His rider won’t be able to claim his 7lbs though so he is already 7lbs worse off. I think Jezki is the best of the Irish and Royal Guardsman the best of the Brits. We laid six different horses in the Ascor bumper Royal Guardsman won so I am sure that was a strong bumper. JEWSON NOVICES’ CHASE AP: I do hope Peddlers Cross doesn’t win. In novice chases I like the best jumpers so that means Cristal Bonus who has been brilliant over his fences in his two chase starts NW: Kumbeshwar goes here or the Grand Annual and he will have blinkers on the first time for us wherever he goes. TV: Peddlers Cross wins if he is right but McCain wouldn’t run him if he wasn’t. If Champion Court was trained by Henderson or Nicholls he would much shorter. RH: Peddlers Cross has clearly had issues but said to be sparkling more of late. I don’t know which Peddlers Cross will turn up so will go with Sir Des Champs. RG: I want to take Peddlers Cross and Cristal Bonus on. The latter would be 10/1 if not trained by Nicholls. RYANAIR CHASE AP: I’ve been let down by Somersby more times than I care to count. I do think the New Course is much more suited to his style of racing though and he had that here. Rubi Light can’t win on fast ground. Somersby is the best horse in the race though he has been for others and not won those. NW: It’s 95% certain Medermit runs here. We want to try 3m at some point soon though. You have to throw him into the mix and he has a great chance of making the frame. Noble Prince is the one to beat. TV: I hear Noble Prince has had his problems this season. Medermit is a very solid horse so each-way material but probably a nearly horse. Rubi Light for me. RH: No strong views. Interesting to see if McCoy rides Albertas Run or Noble Prince. I don’t fancy Rubi Light on the likely ground. RG: Paul Nolan is having a poor run which is offputting for Noble Prince. I couldn’t dream of backing Rubi Light at 5/1 who looks good getting a solo out in front on bottomless ground but this will be very different. He’s shocking value and I will be standing him and Noble Prince. Medermit for me over Somersby. WORLD HURDLE AP: One danger to Big Buck’s is really quick ground as he is now a 9-year-old. NW: I could see Oscar Whisky finish unplaced if he tries to put it up to Big Buck’s too early. TV: I think Oscar Whisky has an outstanding chance. He is a serious machine and can find improvement for the step up trip. The Big Buck’s run has to come to an end sometime RG: I think this is the most open World Hurdle for ages. I like So Young and he destroyed Trifolium last time who Charles Byrnes really rates. I take the view Big Buck’s’ run has to come to an end sometime and, at the price, I think he is the lay of the meeting and bookmakers will be queuing up to take him on. We’ll be going hell for leather to lay him. THURSDAY SHOULDER RACES AP: Michael Scudamore’s Saphir River is another ex French horse and was sold for 280,000 euros and heads for the Pertemps Final so is interesting on his British debut but they clearly have too much money. TV: Tartak will have his first run for us in the Byrne Group Plate. If he was back to his best he has an outstanding chance off 148 but it’s a tall order given the problems he has had. RH: J P McManus has bought Catch Me who is hardly a spring chicken so he is interesting in the Pertemps Final. RG: I hear Our Father is potentially top class so he is the one for me in the Pertemps Final. TRIUMPH HURDLE AP: This is the most open Triumph in many a year with nine horses covered by 8lbs. Baby Mix looks like a horse with a physical problem. I thought Grumeti’s best run was his hurdling debut and he might be better on right-handed tracks. I think he is a stone cold certainty for the Grade 1 at Punchestown. I would go for Pearl Swan if forced to bet having got his head in front of Grumeti last time giving 3lbs and there is more to come. He reminds me of Celestial Halo but by God it’s difficult this year. NW: Choc will school Grumeti and Balder Succes tomorrow and make a decision and it will be a tough decision. Grumeti is the harder and more experienced and has as good a chance as anything but I love Balder Succes as a prospect, he is a frame really and still developing. He has done all his winning on soft but that is just the way it has fallen and it wouldn’t bother me if it came up good ground as he has a good-ground action. His work on Wednesday was nothing short of sensational. He is just about the most exciting horse in the yard in my opinion. TV: I know Richard Johnson is very keen on Sadlers Risk and he thinks he will improve for the Kempton run which was needed and will love the hill and is 100% confident he will reverse with Baby Mix. Dodging Bullets each-way if he runs too. RH: I will be laying Baby Mix for a place and will be surprised if he even handles the preliminaries as he is a fruitcake. I’ve already done my money on Ranjaan. RG: I think Sadlers Risk will start favourite. The money for him over the last couple of days has been telling. The Irish are much of a muchness. I wouldn’t be rushing to back those. ALBERT BARTLETT NOVICES’ HURDLE AP: Boston Bob looks to have 10lbs-12lbs in hand. Nothing stands out from the rest. NW: We run Lovcen. He hacked up at Towcester but when we tried graded company he was returning from a break and was too fresh. He is very progressive and straightforward and won well last time and is crying out for 3m and his daisy cutting action suggests decent ground will be okay. TV: Captain Moonman runs for us and he beat Mount Benbulben easily in a point-to-point. He was flat out at Plumpton but Cheltenham will suit him much better. Boston Bob is a near certainty. RH: Boston Bob looks a cut above these. RG: I can see Boston Bob starting near 5/4. I see no reason why Mount Benbulben should reverse Navan form from before Christmas. GOLD CUP AP: I can’t possibly have a 12-year-old winning the Gold Cup and especially on good ground which looks likely. I don’t think Long Run is right and he fluffed 6 of the last 7 races at Kempton by jumping left handed and he was doing it again at Newbury so he is jumping fences at an angle so that is not ideal. I will be laying Kauto Star and Long Run. NW: I do think Kempton’s 3m suits Kauto Star better than Cheltenham’s 3m2½f. Not really a Weird Al fan so Burton Port is the value. TV: Long Run hasn’t visually been the same horse for me this season. Not saying he can’t win but he hasn’t improved and looks more cumbersome and lazy which is not ideal even for a top class amateur such as Sam Waley-Cohen. If Kauto Star turns up in same form as Haydock and Kempton then I don’t see why he shouldn’t win. Weird Al and Burton Port appeal as best of the rest. RH: I think the big two are vulnerable. Most Gold Cup winners aren’t the same horse the next season. I’m a big Weird Al fan. You can see he has improved since moving to McCain. I’ve never seen Geraghty ride a horse like he did Burton Port last time and he is a tough horse and he still almost beat Long Run. I bet he doesn’t sit as quietly going to the last this time. RG: I’d be laying Kauto Star and Long Run together at Evens. The horse I like is Weird Al. Change of scenary to Donald McCain has worked and he only has 10 lengths to find with Kauto Star and has a very good Cheltenham record. FRIDAY SHOULDER RACES AP: Best bet of the week for me is My Flora in the Foxhunters’. If you saw her win the John Corbett Cup at Stratford you will definitely want to be on her at a double figure price. She is great value with the mares’ allowance. NW: There should be a fair bit of improvement in Raya Star for the County Hurdle as he hasn’t had the fast pace he prefers yet. TV: I know Richard Johnson is very hopeful of Snap Tie in the County and was pleased with his racecourse gallop recently. My wife runs Picaroon in the Foxhunters’ and they will be setting a frenetic gallop I can assure you of that. RH: Snap Tie off 137 really catches the eye in the County. 887 days off but after the last time he ran he was favourite for the Arkle. The Handicapper can drop them too much for time off the track. Son Of Flicka was just beaten in the Martin Pipe last year by Sir Des Champs and has a fine Cheltenham record and can go well again even if he is likely to be the McCain second string behind Bourne. Interesting Free World is now with Arthur Moore who has won a couple of Grand Annuals. RG: The value has gone about Street Entertainer in the Martin Pipe and there is a good word for him. I think there will be a bit of a plunge on Kid Cassidy in the Grand Annual. NAPS: NW: Hurricane Fly RH: Megastar TV: Boston Bob AP: My Flora RG: Weird Al

[Cheltenham Chat]

Re: Cheltenham Chat

When I click that link it quicly flashes up something about the offer then it automatically refreshed to the main page. Will this still work? Also I'm sure it says something about only working if you link from Betting Pro, will this link still work? When is it valid until? Thanks!

the offer as finished now mate,just checked

[Cheltenham Preview Nights]

Re: Cheltenham Preview Nights CHELTENHAM FESTIVAL PREVIEW at KNARESBOROUGH thursday, March 8th The same panel as last year were invited back namely Channel 4 Racing’s Jim McGrath (JM), Cheltenham Festival Betting Guide author Paul Jones (PJ), Nick Robson (NR) (aka The Fox) of Racing Plus Newspaper and Sky Bet’s Michael Shinners (MS). All 27 races were discussed. SUPREME NOVICES’ HURDLE JM: I was credited with tipping Darlan at an Irish preview but that is incorrect. Tetlami is narrowly top rated but not so with Timeform who have rated Darlan as if he would have gone very close at Newbury but it was a muddling heat. I’d split stakes between Steps To Freedom and Galileo’s Choice with a preference for the former. PJ: Shame Simonsig is not running as he would have been my pick. In his place I like Midnight Game best who looks to be improving at the right time and you have to respect Willie Mullins’ number one 2m novice hurdler. Darlan strikes me as being very much under-priced. NR: I have backed Montbazon but am losing confidence in him after King said he might not be quite good enough. Cinders And Ashes is the other horse I’ve backed and he is a much stronger horse this year so can finish off his race better than in the Bumper here last season. Darlan is a poor price after such a bad fall. MS: Sky Bet are betting the first five paces on this race so come to us if you want an each-way bet. It’s not a secret that J P McManus fancies Darlan so he is likely to get shorter still but I would still worry what he would find up the hill. Paddy Brennan is very bullish about Vulcanite. ARKLE TROPHY JM: I am not knocking Sprinter Sacre but 8/11 is short when he has a very worthy opponent in Al Ferof who is not too far behind on figures and he could have been one of the Nicholls horses off colour when he was third atAscot. Cue Card makes too many mistakes, even when he won at Newbury last time out. If you gave me a free bet I would back Al Ferof as his price is marginally bigger than I think it should be. PJ: I can’t really see angle into having a bet here and now as the only way I see Sprinter Sacre not winning is by being too brave at a fence. The hill argument is a complete red herring, it’s a shorter race than the Supreme for starters and he was only a shell of a horse last year. Al Ferof was flat out according to Walsh in the Supreme over 2m½f and again in the Victor Chandler over 2m1f so I suspect he will be again here over 2m and the bird may well have flown by the time his stamina kicks in. NR: A mistake is the only potential downfall that can stop Sprinter Sacre. Blackstairmountain strikes me as the each-way value and top of the ground will suit if that is the case. He is the only potentially overpriced horse. MS: There is bound to be a price war so it is likely Sprinter Sacre will touch Evens somewhere at some point but I can’t oppose him. JLT SPECIALTY HANDICAP CHASE JM: I think Quantitativeeasing will run very well. He was my original fancy and although I am a bit alarmed he is now top weight I will stick with him. His win here in December is working out very well. He has earned his weight rise. Tullamore Dew is another I respect as he is in form and has twice placed in Festival handicaps before. PJ: I have recently come round to thinking Our Mick is the bet. I do like novices in this race and fancy he is the best of those and is open to improvement upped in trip and he just keeps finding. Riguez Dancer is my idea of the best long shot if he squeezes in for Ferdy Murphy and hisDoncasterrun two starts back was eye-catching. I hear Hold On Julio is still not pleasing King and he works on Saturday and then a decision will be taken if he runs or not. If Quantitativeeasing wins off 155, he will be the first winner in over 30 years to be rated over 150 so he isn’t for me. He would probably have to run to 162 or better to win I would have thought and I just don’t think he is that good. NR: I couldn’t have Quantitativeeasing off top weight. Hold On Julio clouted a fence or two at Sandown and had a couple of setbacks so it’s Our Mick for me who is crying out for 3m and novices have a good record in the race. MS: We’re keen on Quantitativeeasing and trying to keep out of the way of him. There will be a price war on the day on the race for sure. CHAMPION HURDLE JM: Hurricane Fly has won ten Grade 1s and was only ridden to win last year’s race rather than to run away with it so I am not worried he didn’t win by far. Zarkandar is the least exposed runner in the field and I thought he did well to win at Newbury and won smug in the end. If Hurricane Fly is to be beaten, then I can only see Zarkandar doing so. PJ: I’m not opposing Hurricane Fly. I like both Overturn and Thousand Stars in the without Hurricane Fly market. Overturn as he is massively overpriced in this market given he is joint top rated with Binocular if you take out the favourite which of course you can for this market and he worked very well last week. Thousand Stars also as I can see him being ridden to finish second like Theatreworld was three times behind his stablemate, Istabraq. Both strike me as good each-way bets without the favourite. NR: Hurricane Fly should win of course but Binocular has the class to put it up to him though I feel Rock On Ruby is the value on his Kempton second to Binocular. Overturn appeals as best of the bigger prices and he would bounce off good ground. MS: We’re 4/6 Hurricane Fly and will lay the field against him. tUESDAY SHOULDER RACES JM: Outside of Quevega, Baby Shine could place in the Mares Hurdle and Blazing Tempo would also be interesting if she ran. Noel O’Brien (Ireland’s chief handicapper) told me that Scotsirish is one of the best handicapped horses of the week and he runs in the Cross Country. I am sure Bless The Wings will run well in the novices’ handicap chase even though it was the other course he won over atCheltenhamlast time. He won with something in hand with his ears flicking. PJ: I liked Our Girl Salley to be second to Quevega in the Mares Hurdle but Betfair is telling us this evening she may have had a setback. I think Scotsirish will kill his rivals for speed in the Cross Country being able to hold his own in Grade 1 2m races and noting the ground is likely to ride fast on that course. I like Bless The Wings for the win and Vino Griego e/w in the novices’ handicap at first glance but it’s not a race I have looked at closely as yet. NR: Shop Dj or Baby Shine would be my each-way alternatives to Quevega in the Mares Hurdle. Uncle Junior offers better value than Scotsirish of the Mullins pair in the Cross Country. The only other option is Sizing Australia on similar ground to what he won on in last year’s race. Bless The Wings has a good chance in the novice handicap and White Star Line is a bit of value with his form tying in with Hidden Cyclone. MS: Quevega is different class to these and this looks a worse Mares Hurdle than the last two years. Our Girl Salley back in trip has e/w chance as she was the best horse at the weights when third atAscotlast time. Scotsirish was smashed off the boards for the cross country race here in December when he took the wrong course so looks the one with Sizing Australia only 5lbs than when winning last year being each-way value. I am not convinced about Triolo D’Alene’s jumping who is likely to be favourite in the novice handicap. Carrick Boy needed to win earlier this week to get in the race with a penalty which he did and he has gone under the radar a bit and would be my fancy. NH CHASE JM: Alle Garde has an each-way chance even on the figures of races that weren’t up with his best form. He has a good chance of winning on his Leopardstown Grade 1 third behind Last Instalment. Mullins has a good hand as also has Soll but Alle Garde is more experienced and would be my fancy. PJ: I like Alle Garde. I just think his Leopardstown run behind Last Instalment and First Lieutenant is the best form on offer and that run was also on good ground like it could be on Wednesday whereas it was heavy when he was beaten next time. NR: Patrick Mullins has described Alle Garde has his best ride of the week and he has the most ability of these on his placed effort in a Grade 1 race. Teaforthree and Soll would want softer ground than is likely. MS: Harry The Viking has been ante-post favourite but he looks a bit quirky to me and may want professional handling. Alfie Spinner has the best British form so appeals as an each-way bet. NEPTUNE INVESTMENTS NOVICES’ HURDLE JM: Without question I would run Boston Bob in the Albert Bartlett. Until we know where he runs it hard to have a strong view about the race. PJ: I liked Sous Les Cieux for this after he won the Royal Bond, then went off him after a couple of defeats, but am coming round to him again. Partly as market moves suggest Boston Bob could be Albert Bartlett bound which tells me that Mullins rates them both highly so wants to keep them apart. I would have preferred to see Simonsig in the Supreme as question whether he has the guts for a race like theNeptunewhere they have to battle hard to win. On decent ground I also see Make Your Mark being a big player. NR: I wouldn’t give up on Boston Bob running here. His owner told Andy Stewart this is where he wants to run. If he runs then Boston Bob is the bet of the meeting, if not, then I would switch to Make Your Mark MS: We’re happy to lay Simonsig. Monksland likes decent ground and would be of interest if it came up such a surface. RSA CHASE JM: Grands Crus is not as short as he should be and providing he runs here he is one of the bets of the meeting. As he is such a strong traveller the view from many is that he won’t stay but, for me, the only danger is the ground. He is a neat and accurate jumper that goes left-handed and right-handed and will win if the ground is okay. PJ: I would be against Grands Crus wherever he runs as I’ve never seen him win a race when he had to battle and RSA Chases are rarely won with ease. I backed Bobs Worth straight after the Feltham as he just has RSA type written all over him and am happy with that bet though I am not sure I would back him at current odds. NR: I’ve backed Invictus so was disappointed to hear he is doubtful now after a setback today. Bobs Worth doesn’t jump well enough so I would go with whatever Gigginstown decide to run between Sir Des Champs and First Lieutenant. QUEEN MOTHER CHAMPION CHASE JM: Colm Murphy does really well with his top horses in top races so I wouldn’t judge Big Zeb on his Tied Cottage run. That said, it hard to get away from Sizing Europe who is an even better horse this year than last year so lump on. PJ: It’s very simple really. SizingEuropeis even better this season and this year’s race is not at good as 12 months ago so at odds-against then he is a bet and I don’t usually back shorties at the Festival. NR: SizingEuropewill have to fall to get beat. Finian’s Rainbow just looks lethargic. Kauto Stone could hit the frame on his Tingle Creek form. MS: I think Kauto Stone could go well and be the one to give Sizing Europe most to do if you ignoreAscotlast time when he ran too freely. You can get 13/8 elsewhere (Boylesports) that Sizing Europe starts odds-on which is a good price. He will lengthen and then shorten up before the race and it’s a much shorter than 13/8 chance that he will go off odds-on. WEDNESDAY SHOULDER RACES JM: CapeDutchis of interest if getting in the Coral Cup. I was with John Ferguson last week and this is one of three horses he feels has realistic e/w chances this week (others being New Year’s Eve and Cotton Mill). He was second to a well handicapped horse of Nicholls’ at the Open Meeting and had a break since. When I was inIrelandI didn’t get strong vibes they thought they would win the Bumper but they have some strong contenders notably Clonbanon Lad. PJ: Batonnier might switch from theNeptuneto the Coral Cup and, if so, I like his chances off 138. Final Approach would be higher than I like ratings-wise on trends but he is not much higher than when winning theCountyHurdlefrom an impossible position last year so is well handicapped for me and open to more improvement at this trip. Edeymi is my idea of the Fred Winter winner. Vendor is an atrocious price off back of Alan King’s comments he is very well in as half the field will also be well in. Moscow Mannon is the most likely winner of the Bumper for me but no strong view in that race. NR: Sir Johnson is 4-4 inbumpers and been put away for this since the autumn by Peter Bowen and has been overlooked.SpiritRiverwon the Coral Cup two years ago and is only 4lbs higher this time. I like his chance and that ofFeatherbed Lane. Edeymi appeals most in the Fred Winter though his trainer’s recent record atCheltenhamis a worry. MS: If Batonnier runs in the Coral Cup then we want to keep him on side. We have seen money for Act Of Kalanisi and Dr Newland has won this race before. Kazlian and Ulck De Linn are the two we have seen money for in the Fred Winter but also respect Charles Byrnes’ Arnaud. I can pass on a good word in the Bumper for David O’Meara’s Ifandbutwhynot who is likely to be a big price. JEWSON NOVICES’ CHASE JM: Cristal Bonus has been most impressive since having a wind op after joining Nicholls and is my fancy. Sir Des Champs has also been impressive but whether he has as much tactical speed over this trip as Cristal Bonus would be a slight worry. PJ: Sir Des Champs and Cristal Bonus have been my two fancies against the field for a while but after speaking to Nicholls last week, he told me that Cristal Bonus would be much better jumping left handed so given how impressive he was going the other way at Kempton last time, then he would be the one for me. NR: No strong view but Sir Des Champs if he runs and I have had a good word e/w fromIrelandfor Call The Police. MS: I was at Kempton when Cristal Bonus won and he really was impressive. Peddlers Cross has switched here from the Arkle as his schooling wasn’t what they wanted but there are more fences to jump here. We will want to get him. RYANAIR CHASE JM: Cheekpieces seemed to sharpen up Somersby atAscotlast time and he keeps putting up solid figures and has a good overall record so he would be my preference. Riverside Theatre is a very exuberant horse and I am one of his doubters. It is a fact that he ran disappointingly at the Festival before. PJ: I like Somersby each-way as feel it is hard to see him not run his race so he should place at worst if he runs to his form and you might even hit the jackpot. He has been placed twice at the Festival before don’t forget and cheekpieces seemed to sweeten him up atAscot. Rubi Light may want softer, Noble Prince may want faster and they have something to prove on pure form with the best of the Brits so both could be under-priced. NR: I spoke to Paul Nolan who wants McCoy to ride Noble Prince but he looks set to be claimed for Albertas Run so Davy Russell will ride if that is the case. Rubi Light looks solid for a top three finish and handles decent ground as we saw when he was third last year. He is one of my bets of the meeting. MS: If it comes up decent ground I confidently expect Noble Prince to start a clear favourite. WORLD HURDLE JM: Oscar Whisky is good value at 6/1 if you take the view that he will stay. He is not certain to on pedigree but he has a good chance of getting the trip. I think Big Buck’s will be ridden prominently and gradually pull horses off the bridle. PJ: I’m not opposing Big Buck’s but feel Mourad offers some value each-way in the without favourite market now that he has found his form again and was third last year and front running might be the making of him. NR: No strong opinion but Voler La Vedette each-way without Big Buck’s makes some appeal. MS: If I was take on Big Buck’s it would be with So Young who is still unexposed and may have won the Neptune last year had he jumped the final flight properly. THURSDAY SHOULDER RACES JM: Our Father was ridden with unbelievable confidence last time and is clearly a contender for the Pertemps Final. Sivola De Sivola is another that makes appeals as is Jetson who won the Leopardstown qualifier with more in hand than the margin suggested. Crack Away Jack could be well handicapped. He was bombing away at the time of a bad mistake here in November and I would probably want to be with him in the Plate. I know Brackloon High runs in the Kim Muir and he was fifth at the Open Meeting over hurdles and been running well over fences since and would be a speculative selection. PJ: No view yet on the Kim Muir, Buena Vista each-way in the Pertemps Final could easily come off for the fifth year running as Pipe is putting up a 10lbs claimer this year and he did win it easily last year with a 5lbs claimer and is just 2lbs higher and I like Crack Away Jack in the Plate as he has tip-top Festival form and the vibes are that Nicholls has him back to near his best so he could be very nicely treated compared to his hurdles rating. NR: I like Michael Flips in the Plate who looks pretty well handicapped having been second in a Grade 1 novice chase last time and also respect Salut Flo. Baile Anrai is interesting if he runs in the Kim Muir where I also like Helpston. I am looking atSapphirRiverin the Pertemps Final who has decent French form. MS: We’re keen on Sivola De Sivola in the Pertemps Final and also feel Catch Me has been lined up for this for a while. Salut Flo and Divers have been best backed with us for the Plate. I like Helpston for the Kim Muir and also Micks Delight for Victor Dartnall. TRIUMPH HURDLE JM: I backed Shadow Catcher last time and felt he should have won. He was going like a winner throughout and why he hit the front as early as two out I don’t know. He travelled best through the race by some way. I took 20/1 for the Triumph soon after and that is my only ante post bet. PJ: Grumeti looks bomb proof each-way and I rate him as the best of the Brits but do feel the Irish have a real chance this year in a race they have not won for 10 years. I would expect Shadow Catcher to reverse form with Hisaabaat from Leopardstown and rate him and Darroun as the main dangers. NR: Grumeti really does look rock solid to run a big race. I couldn’t have Sadler’s Risk but Shadow Catcher has good each-way claims. MS: If you fancy an each-way bet it might be best to wait until the day as it looks like being a big field and you could get four places. I fancy Sadlers Risk to reverse Adonis form with Baby Mix. It’s wide open and could even 6/1 favourite on the day. Pearl Swan each-way for me. ALBERT BARTLETT NOVICES’ HURDLE JM: As with theNeptune, hard to give any strong views until we know where Boston Bob is running. PJ: Having backed Mount Benbulben for this about two months ago at a much bigger price than he is now I really hope Boston Bob heads for the Neptune as I do rate his second to Boston Bob as the next best piece of form in the Albert Bartlett by quite a way. NR: Hard to see beyond Boston Bob orMountBenbulbenthough Fox Appeal is improving steadily and could run a big race. MS: BrindisiBreeze is our worst result of the Festival if he wins having laid it at 33/1 before he won by half the track last time out. I’d take on Rocky Creek. GOLD CUP JM: If Long Run runs to the same form as in last year’s race then he will win. He is still very hard to knock on paper and I thought he ran a fantastic race when second to Kauto Star in the King George for a real stayer and Kauto was ridden beautifully that day. The fact remains, however, that Long Run did make a couple of errors in Gold Cup last season and his runs in the Paddy Power and RSA at Cheltenham here were littered with mistakes. Some ridiculous things have been said about Sam Waley-Cohen but he is a very capable amateur. I so think that Long Run will drift on the day. PJ: I just have a feeling we will get a result here. I’ve liked Weird Al’s each-way chances for a while but they are now starting to firm up even more following Kauto Star’s schooling fall and rumours all is not 100% with Long Run. I don’t fancy Grands Crus to stay looking how he fell away in the French Champion Hurdle over 3m1½f. Weird All goes best fresh, loves the track and represents an upwardly mobile yard and I have gone in again. I could also see Knockara Beau running on strongly through beaten horses and could even grab a place at huge odds like so many of his ilk have done before. NR: I expect Grands Crus and Kauto Star to both run. Long Run is the most likely winner but is too skinny so it’s Synchronised and Weird Al that have most place potential. MS: I am sure Long Run will drift so see no point in anyone backing him now. Burton Port has the potential to bounce so I am looking at What A Friend to sneak into frame as he needed the run at Newbury last time and only just missed out on a place by a short head last year. FRIDAY SHOULDER RACES JM: Salsify wants decent ground and has good form and is my Foxhunters’ selection. I doubt whether Chapoturgeon will stay the Gold Cup trip and Barbers Shop is a bit of a monkey these days. Tanks For That runs the course well and he should run well in the Grand Annual forHenderson. I would run Prospect Wells in the County if he were mine and rate him one of the bets of the meeting if they do with Brampour holding the weights down. My three against the field for the Martin Pipe are Bourne, Balgarry and Poole Master who all look ahead of the handicapper if they get in. PJ: I like On The Fringe for the Foxhunters’ who was fourth last year as just a 6yo and was an encouraging third to Salsify giving weight on his only run since last month. Citizenship should love the extra1fand uphill finish compared to Leopardstown when he won last time finishing very strongly and he and Dirar are my two against the field in the Vincent O’Brien County Hurdle. I have a sneaky feeling Free World may be a third long-term plot in the Grand Annual for Arthur Moore having won twice fairly recently. Not looked at the Martin Pipe yet and probably won’t until the day as it’s a nightmare. NR: Raya Star should be on the premises in the County off a strong pace which he hasn’t had on his last two starts yet still won atAscotand went close at Newbury. Ubi Ace wants a fast 2m and is not to be underestimated and also has just moved to Jonjo O’Neill from Tim Walford. McCain thinksCloudy Laneis his best bet of the meeting in the Foxhunters’.CapeDutchis interesting if he gets in the Martin Pipe. Lucky William interests me for the Grand Annual and does Bellvano who might get the race run to suit. MS: Snap Tie has shortened most with us for theCountyHurdlebut a lot of punters are waiting to see what happens in the Imperial Cup first. We will be ducking Salsify in the Foxhunters’. We saw money this morning for Toner D’Oudairies for the Martin Pipe and Gordon Elliott has commented on Twitter tonight he is switching to this race. Toubab is likely to well backed in the Grand Annual as it’s the getting out stakes and the Nicholls-Walsh horse always is.

[Cheltenham Chat]

Re: Cheltenham Chat sorry wrong thread

[Cheltenham Chat]

Re: Cheltenham Chat bought a copy of the weekender today must say the best edition i have bought in a long time [ obviously really seeing its cheltenham next week] its an 120 page special preview edition this week its previewing tuesday and wednesdays races also king. henderson and mullins talk about there runners for the week only thing i noticed its gone up from £1.50 to £1.70 but fantastic read,also i went and got a copy of cheltenhams ultimate guide for £2.99 from wh smiths

[Cheltenham Preview Nights]

Re: Cheltenham Preview Nights CHELTENHAM FESTIVAL PREVIEW at THE HASELBURY MILL, Somerset Tuesday, 6th March The panel was chaired by Author Jonathan Powell (JP), who was joined by ex-jockey Mick Fitzgerald (MF), bookie Andy Smith (AS), Paul Nicholls’ Assistant Trainer Harry Fry (HF) and last year’s Triumph Hurdle winner Daryl Jacob (DJ). Rattling through the races day-by-day the well balanced panel were able to enlighten the room from various different angles, ending with all five panel members highlighting their NAP’s for each of the four days racing. Day 1 SUPREME NOVICES’ HURDLE DJ: I really like our runner Prospect Wells – He’s had a wind-op, and the pace of the race and the good ground will really suit and I think he is really overpriced. AS: Darlan is rated higher than Get Me Out of Here was when he was runner-up for connections in 2010 and the money’s really coming for him so I wouldn’t be surprised if they continued to gamble on him right until the off and I can see him going off at 5/2. ARKLE MF: I worked for Nicky for 15 years and I have never heard him speak about a horse like he does of Sprinter Sacre – He is the real deal and he could win without coming off the bridle. DJ: Al Ferof schooled well this morning, he is very fresh and it will be interesting to see what Sprinter Sacre finds off the bridle. Our lad isn’t the quickest but he stays well and he will be doing all his best work late on and will be flying up the hill like he did 12 months ago in the Supreme. AS: Al Ferof is the main danger to the favourite but I wouldn’t discount Menorah – He loves the track and if his schooling sessions with Yogi Breisner have worked he could well give Sprinter Sacre a race. HF: Apparently the horses at Nicky Henderson’s can’t go quick enough for Sprinter Sacre at home so Al Ferof could struggle mid-race but one thing for sure is he will be flying up the hill. CHAMPION HURDLE DJ: Hurricane Fly will be very difficult to beat if he repeats last year’s form. Zarkandar has had a wind-op and is good form after being schooled and certainly has the toe to give him a race. HF: Rock on Ruby is very well and we knew the track at Kempton wouldn’t suit him and he still nearly beat Binocular that day. Overturn well set a good solid pace which will suit, we’ve schooled him and we couldn’t be happier. MF: Out of the four short priced runners during the week Hurricane Fly is the best of them and he could run below his best and still win making him the one I want to be on. For each-way punters Thousand Stars has an excellent chance of placing. AP said Binocular was back to his best at Wincanton and he will have a chance of placing but they will all be behind Hurricane Fly. JP: Overturn is a very tough and hardy front runner and has shown better form than last year; he galloped well at Bangor and I would be very surprised if more than 3 or 4 get past him so back him each-way without the favourite. NAPS HF: Rock on Ruby & Colour Squadron each way. AS: Darlan. MF: Darlan. DJ: Prospect Wells each way at 25/1, he shouldn’t be that price. JP: Triolo D’Alene Day 2 QUEEN MOTHER AS: Sizing Europe should be 4/6 but he will have to make the most of his victory this year because Sprinter Sacre will win it for the next 3 years. If Somersby runs, which I think he should, then back him without the favourite as he is the only conceivable danger. R.S.A HF: Join Together has got guts, course form and jumps and stays which gives him a chance. I don’t think Bobs Worth jumps well enough; First Lieutenant has festival form so cannot be discounted. MF: I love repeat offenders at Cheltenham and Bobs Worth is one of those – The way races are run at the festival are like no other meeting anywhere in the country and the pace of the race and going back left handed could spring him back into life, however First Lieutenant could be the one to beat who loves a fast pace and jumps really well. DJ: I really like Invictus – I was very impressed with him at Ascot; he jumps quickly and stays, also I know Choc is sweet on him and he has a great chance. MF: I have had a bet on Join Together – He stays well and he’s a good solid jumper. NEPTUNE INVESTMENT NOVICES’ HURDLE AS: Monksland is the best of the Irish and he will be the danger to Simonsig MF: I’m surprised Simonsig looks more likely to head this race and he has a great chance with Boston Bob looking likely to head to the Albertt Bartlett – He’s a worthy favourite but he’s short enough in the betting. Monksland can’t win – His tail was swishing like a windmill last time out and his trainer (Noel Meade) has a terrible record at the festival. NATIONAL HUNT CHALLENGE CUP HF: We have Harry The Viking in this and I know Paul Nicholls is very keen on him; he gallops and stays, and the trip will really suit. Will Biddick is going to ride him and he has plenty of experience and he has a big chance. NAPS HF: Harry the Viking DJ: Invictus MF: Sizing Europe JP: Allee Garde AS: Alle Garde Day 3 JEWSON NOVICES’ CHASE MF: Solix would win if there were no obstacles in his way; he is very smart but back him at your peril. The one I really like is Sir Des Champs who has been laid out for this race and he will take all the beating. AS: I’ve backed Cristal Bonus who jumped fantastic first time out and he will be much better going left-handed, although I do think Solix has a brilliant chance if he jumps. DJ: For Non Stop has a serious engine and he has improved for every run this season and he ran well behind Al Ferof; he’s always been held in high regard and he jumps and stays really well. WORLD HURDLE AS: Big Bucks will get beat one day and I am willing to lay 8/13, which you won’t get anywhere on the high street. Both Oscar Whiskey and Voler La Vedette can give him a race and So Young could also run well in a really tough field – I think he (Big Bucks) will get beat. HF: Realistically this won’t be the year he gets beat, he’s in top order. MF: I think Big Bucks will win but one day he will get beat and it could be this year. Oscar Whiskey at 6/4 without Big Bucks is what I’d rather be on. PERTEMPTS FINAL JP: David Pipe has said Our Father has an outstanding chance and the 20lb rise in the weights won’t stop him. AS: Beuna Vista is higher than his winning mark of last year but Tom Bellamy rides and taking off 10lbs with his claim the horse actually looks well in. Jetson could also play a big hand in the race after winning a qualifier at Leopardstown. RYANAIR MF: Albertas Run is another repeat offender ; he’s won the last two renewals of this race and an R.S.A chase proving he loves Cheltenham and he is the value horse in the race. HF: Poquelin has run in the race twice before, coming up short on both occasions and I don’t think this year will be any different – Albertas Run is the value. AS: I really like Medermit if he runs, as well as Noble Prince. I would lay Riverside Theatre, Albertas Run and Rubi Light. NAPS HF: Lay Peddlers Cross in the Jewson AS: Lay Big Bucks JP: Cristal Bonus MF: Sir Des Champs DJ: Noble Prince Day 4 TRIUMPH HURDLE HF: Pearl Swan is my NAP of the festival – He jumped impressively at Taunton and there is a lot more improvement to come. DJ: Dildar stays very well, he loves good ground and he’s quick and nimble over hurdles. I can’t understand why his odds are so much bigger than Pearl Swan and he’ll be improving. MF: I’ve backed Alan King to train the winner of this race and I am very happy with the chances of both Grumeti and Balder Success. Grumeti has reportedly had a foot problem but he’s had a new shoe put on and Alan doesn’t believe this will have any negative effects. He ran just 5 days after falling at Newbury when he was awarded the race in which Pearl Swan won and there will be more to come from him . GOLD CUP HF: Kauto Star showed signs of improvement this morning and Cliff is happy, which generally means everyone else is happy. It isn’t ideal preparation but one thing for sure is he will only run if the team are 110% sure he is right, so dismiss him at your peril. MF: Paul Nicholls has the toughest job in racing this week and I really hope he makes the race as it won’t be the same without him, but I can’t see him being good enough to win as a 12-y-o. It’s the weakest year we’ve seen for a long time and Long Run doesn’t seem the same horse this year, so I can see a shock result, with What A Friend a player if he’s back to his best. AS: There will be a shock this year – Long Run will get beat. I really like Weird Al who ran well behind the two market leaders at Haydock and he has a good track record. FOXHUNTERS HF: We have According To John and Chapoturgeon in the race and at home you can’t split them – I wouldn’t swap either of them and I give them both excellent chances. COUNTY HURDLE HF: Ted Spread is thrown in at the weights and he’s Paul’s best handicap chance of the week. DJ: I rode Ted Spread at Ascot when trained by Mark Tompkins and when he bumped into Grumeti – He’s improving all the time, the good ground will suit, he was rated 104 on the flat and I’m very hopeful of his chances. CONDITIONAL JOCKEY’S HURDLE MF: Eradicate loves fast run races and quick ground so with this being a race on the last day the ground often dries out which will suit him; he’s off a nice mark and David Bass gets on really well with him so he would have a great chance. NAPS DJ: Pearl Swan MF: Boston Bob AS: Boston Bob HF: According To John BEST BETS JP: Triolo D’Alene (Centenary Novices’ Chase) the yard think he’s better than the handicapper rates him. MF: Ferdy Murphy really likes Going Wrong in the same race as Triolo D’Alene and he’s absolutely adamant it’s his each way NAP of the festival

[Cheltenham Preview Nights]

Re: Cheltenham Preview Nights CHELTENHAM FESTIVAL PREVIEW courtesy of the The Shepherds Crook, Crowell Tuesday 6th March The popular panel of Gold Cup-winning jockey Andrew Thornton (AT), At The Races presenter David Duggan (DD) and fellow broadcaster Andrew Barr (AB) of Racing UK were again hosted by The Shepherd’s Crook at Crowell on Tuesday 6th March. With renowned racing commentator Mark Johnson (MJ) in his regular role as compère, a sumptuous two course meal and a packed pub, the scene was set for an evening of tips, chat and a fair bit of banter. Champion Hurdle DD: Hurricane Fly, is a desperate looking animal but has a great engine. Willie Mullins wasn’t happy with him over the winter, something wasn’t quite rite but he couldn’t put his finger on it. They were even nervous when he was going around the parade ring at Leopardstown on his reappearance as he was uncharacteristically quiet but he came alive in the race. It’s impossible to see past him, the Fly is about 5 lengths better than anything in the race. He may become the Quevega type of horse, only making a few appearances in the season around this time of year, winning before being put away. He is in great form and is certainly a banker with Binocular sure to be in the frame. AT: Very taken with Binoculars win at Wincanton the other day when looking back to his best. This year has seen the horse have the best preparation for a Cheltenham Festival ever and reports are that he is in fine form for the race. He looks likes he’s getting and better and with the sun on his back and with the prices as they are he is certainly the one to take on Hurricane Fly with. Interestingly Ruby Walsh who has rode Zarkandar in the past says that he fears Binocular the most out of the two to pose the biggest danger to the Fly. AB: Zarkandar will be too slow on the tight track of new course and would be more suited to the old course on which he won the Triumph Hurdle. Binocular travels really well and at around the same price for the two he is by far the better bet but as an outsider he would look towards Donald McCains Overturn. He should get an easy lead and be able to dictate the speed, slow them up and then kick for home and at a huge price looks a great each way prospect. All in all though Hurricane Fly should have the guns to beat Binocular, but don’t rule out Overturn running a big race. Supreme Novices AB: Probably the smart play would be to avoid the race, but JP McManus has said that Darlan is his best chance of a winner at the festival and would therefore be stupid to rule out. If I had to chose then I would go for the Willie Mullins factor and Midnight Game who would be able to sit in off the pace and utilise his good finishing speed. AT: This is the most competitive race at the festival, highlighted when you see that Prospect Wells is 25/1 who was only narrowly defeated at Cheltenham by Steps To Freedom who is 13/2. Jason Maguire has said that Cinders And Ashes is his best chance of a winner at the meeting, he looks high class with an impressive cruising speed and he is sure to keep sticking his neck out where it matters. Montbazon is another one I like, Alan King is in great form and the horse seems to be improving with every run. He beat Vulcanite last time out whose connections though he was unbeatable that day and at 10/1 he is each way value with Cinders And Ashes. I can’t be having Darlan, he had a horrendous fall at Newbury which is a massive negative. He looks a very flashy horse but when push comes to shove I think he will let you down and is probably favourite just on hype. DD: Cinders And Ashes wont win, he is a big slow yoke and has absolutely no chance. Galileo’s Choice was a very useful sort on the flat and will be partnered by one of the best Jockeys around. He is the one to go for but I do have slight doubts about his stamina and I’m concerned he may just flatten out. MJ: In agreement about Cinders And Ashes being very slow, and that Darlan is too flashy. I keep getting Montbazon wrong and have changed my opinion on him so many times but he was impressive at Plumpton and is probably the one to side with. Arkle AT: Sprinter Sacre looks one of the best horses since Moscow Flyer. In the Supreme AP could barely hold him so I don’t think there is a worry about the track for him. His jumping is brilliant and if you can get even money then that’s an absolute steal! Al Ferof is a very well balanced horse and will finish second and anyone looking at Menorah I think that Richard Johnson may have to pray to just get over the first at the speed they will be going. AB: Sprinter Sacre is a great bet, he is the best horse currently in training, he would most probably win the Champion Chase if he went for it and he looks to be one of the greats if he continues in the way he has started his career over fences. DD: Nicky Henderson does have a history of telling us that he has a machine in his yard who then goes and gets beat at the festival. Saying this though Sprinter Sacre looks a different class but you probably shouldn’t back him at the prices. Blackstairmountain has been overlooked in this race, he will be suited by the ground and although probably not good enough to win, should nick a place at a big price. MJ: Sprinter Sacre gave me the biggest wow factor this year when he looked absolutely spectacular. Cue Card and Al Ferof are both very good but i think they will be fighting for second. JLT Specialty Handicap Chase AB: Tullamore Dew is a solid each way bet, he has good festival form which is a massive plus, and he could provide Nick Gifford an emotional first festival winner. Knockara Bow would also have a good each way shout. AT: Quantativeeasing got messed about when beating Medermit last time out at Cheltenham, he needs to make the frame to qualify for the Grand National which his target at Aintree so he is very interesting. I would oppose Hold on Julio as his best form is at Sandown which is a completely different track. The Giant Bolster has a great cruising speed and if he is allowed to roll along in front then he will be tough to peg back. DD: Quantitiveeasing is well in this handicap and stands a terrific chance. Cross Country AT & DD: Both agreed that Sizing Australia will take a lot of beating on the better ground. MJ: also agreed about Sizing Australia but also mentioned that Scotsirish is probably the best horse in the race and will be no push over. The big price in the race though is Tom Georges Halley who will be partnerd by the best French Jockey who has been very successful in similar events in France and at a big price of 33/1. Champion Chase DD: Sizing Europe is a class act, along with Rubi Light he will be the best jumper at the meeting. He loves the track winning the Greatwood, an Arkle and last year’s Champion Chase. If he doesn’t win by 10 Lengths I will be mortified. AB: If Sizing Europe gets a clear run he wins. Somersby is overpriced, and Finians Rainbow is probably too slow, Wishful Thinking may be the outsider who may just come alive with the atmosphere. Neptune DD: Boston Bob who was very impressive at Navan will go for this race and he will win it, the better ground is more than likely to aid him and not hinder him. AB: Bostob Bob looks could be an RSA winner in a year’s time, but there is a slight question about the ground. Sous Les Cieux may be in with a good chance, but Simonsig does look very interesting. Barry Geraghty thought this was the race for him rather than the Supreme but I worry he may cruise before finding little. AT: The trip may not suit Simonsig, I think connections will be hoping that Boston Bob will be going for another race as he looks the most likely winner here as he will enjoy going up the hill. Both AT & MJ agreed that it was hard to see Battonier not being in the frame. RSA Chase AT: Grands Crus should run in this race as I don’t think he will get the trip of the Gold Cup and his speed should be a massive plus in this contest. I worry about Bobs Worths jumping as he seems to ponder his fences but I do like First Lieutenant who should be in the mix. Invictus is the one for me though, he travels, jumps and stays and if he is produced at the right time I can see him getting in front of Grands Crus. DD: Grands Crus is quick but certainly not a stayer. I think that Sir Des Champs is probably overrated and the one to go for would be First Lieutenant. He has been trained very like Weapons Amnesty and he fits the profile of a winner perfectly. He will try for his life and wil love the ground at Cheltenham so for me he wins. AB: I would also have my stamina doubts for Grands Crus, hes still a class horse but he will need holding up and if that doesn’t go to plan then he may be in trouble. First Lieutenant is a big danger along with the outsider Call The Police but Invictus looks a crazy price in the contest having already beaten Bobs Worth convincingly earlier in the year. MJ: I’m also against Grands Crus with Invictus, I think it’s been a long scheme from Alan King to run him in this and Choc Thornton really likes him so he is my choice in this but i think the one they will have to beat is Bobs Worth not Grands Crus. Weatherbys Champion Bumper DD: I’m not sure if Champagne Fever will run here as I don’t think he’ll like the ground, so the one I would go for here is New Years Eve who has achieved a lot in what he has done so far, and both MJ & AB agreed. AT: The Tizzard’s think very highly of Royal Guardsman, possibly as good or even better than Cue Card so he would stand a good chance. Diamond Jubilee National Hunt Chase The whole panel agreed with DD that Glens Boy at 33/1 was a stupid price and would stand a great chance in the 4m contest. AB: I also like Teaforthree in this, he has form on good ground and jumps well. Coral Cup AT: Our Father looks like he has been set up for this race so looks to have a good chance and it’s hard to see Get Me Out Of Here not being in the first three home. Fred Winter AB: If Vendor is as good as Grumeti and Balder Succes then he is very exciting indeed and would be difficult to oppose. Saying this though I do like the chances of Red Inca, who was impressive last time out and with connections thinking there is more to come he may be a great each way bet. World Hurdle DD: In my opion, Big Buck’s is faultless- Paul Nicholls could run him in any race. There’s nothing in Ireland to cause him any sleepless nights! Zaidpour is likely to head to France, while the likes of Mikael D’Hageneut just seem to be something of a square peg in a round hole. Cross Kennon is a good each-way bet; he’s already won at Cheltenham, and was just six lengths adrift of Big Buck’s last year [when taking fourth]. I wouldn’t place any faith in Mourad. AT: Big Buck’s for me too – he’s straight forward, and he beats what he has to beat; he has class and confidence. I would love to see him run in the Gold Cup! Oscar Whisky looks set for second; he’ll get the trip, he likes Cheltenham and travels well. He may try and go wide to catch out Big Buck’s – probably the only way to beat him! AB: Oscar Whisky is a very, very good horse. If he stays 3m completely, he is the biggest rival to Big Buck’s. It will be a tactical battle though; Cross Kennon may make a better pace for the race, while Dynaste just committed too soon when beaten at Ascot by Big Buck’s. I’d be surprised if Voler La Vedette ran here, though she’s in better form than last year when she ran second to Quevega. MJ: Big Buck’s for me! Ryanair Chase AT: If it was Kempton or Ascot, I’d go with Riverside Theatre, but at Cheltenham, I’d have to oppose him. He’s always been campaigned on flat tracks, and I think he’ll run flat; he’ll be having his second run in less than a month after a year off the track. If Medermit runs, he’ll be very keen. Noble Prince needs to improve from last year. If Albertas Run wins it will be one hell of a training performance; a month ago they said he had a one million to one chance of getting there, and while it looks more likely now, it’ll still be a tough ask. Somersby is better than ever before, has a lot of experience and gave a good performance at Ascot. DD: Rubi Light is best suited to soft ground, which he won’t get here. Noble Prince has had a peculiar campaign in the run-up to the Festival, and for me, Riverside Theatre is a definite no. Albertas Run is difficult to judge given his year so far. Forpadydeplasterer loves Cheltenham, and the 2m5f furlong trip is ideal – he’s in with a great chance. Kalahari King could also run into a place. AB: I’m also against Rubi Light on account of the ground, it will be too quick. Somersby needs a shorter trip, and as Andrew said, Albertas Run needs on hell of a training performance to win… but Jonjo is one hell of a trainer. For me though, it’s Great Endeavour. He’s a younger horse on the upgrade, and has great each way value. MJ: I’m going off you Andrew, as that was my ‘bet of the day’! I agree completely, Great Endeavour is a cracking bet. Somersby runs best right handed, while Rubi Light just spends too much time in the air. Albertas Run is a legitimate contender too however – he has already won three times at the Festival. Jewson Novices’ Chase AB: It makes sense for Peddlers Cross not to take on Sprinter Sacre, and he suits the 2m4f trip better. For Non Stop was a good second to Al Ferof [in the Henry VIII Novices’ Chase] before winning the Scilly Isles Chase. AT: I’d oppose Peddlers Cross; at Bangor [bright Future Novices Chase] Jason [Maguire] had to do all the work for him, and the trip is still too short. Crystal Bonus hasn’t beaten much. For Non Stop ticks all the boxes as a potential Festival winner, the one negative being that Nick Williams has yet to train a winner there. Solix could run well at a big price – he’ll jump, and he’ll travel. DD: I don’t think Peddlers Cross will run. If Sir Des Champs runs, he may find the trip too sharp. Pertemps Final AB: Buena Vista for me – I don’t think anyone will be surprised if he wins or places, though Sivola De Sivola may be real contender. The ground may stop Allthekingshorses running. An interesting one is the Warren Greatrex-trained Barwell Bridge. DD: Anything could happen in this race. Prince Erik was 2nd in 2010, and Dermot Weld has had this race in mind for a while – worth an each way shout. MJ: In my opinion, Prince Erik can’t win. When it was run on the old course, the winners tended to be those that were held up. Since it has switched to the new course, they need to stay with the pace. I’d stick with Buena Vista. Byrne Group Plate MJ: Divers for me here. AT: I agree – he won easily here last year. Cheltenham Gold Cup AB: Kauto – you’ve gotta love him! He is better over a slightly shorter trip, and if he makes it, I think Long Run will get revenge. The problem with Long Run is that he’s not as good as people want to believe after last year; he was as good as 2011 on his Newbury run. Synchronised is worth a punt at a price; he’s a classy horse, and the longer trip will suit him. AT: It’s very confusing this year! I said Long Run wouldn’t get the trip in 2011… This year Long Run has looked a bit flat, but that could be because last year Kauto Star wasn’t firing. If Kauto lines up, barring a fall, I would be on him. If he wins, it will be the best training performance of all time. I’m a fan of Midnight Chase, I think he would have gone better last year Dougie Costello on board – no disrespect to Tom [scudamore], but Dougie knows the horse very well. I think the ground will be too quick for Quel Espirit, and if Grands Crus runs I don’t think he’ll get the trip, What A Friend has a good chance of a place. DD: Wouldn’t it be great if Kauto Star won? Long Run’s style of racing seems to be a bit complacent. Midnight Chase has had his limitations exposed, and I’d be very disappointed if Quel Espirit won the Gold Cup! I think this year we could be in for a shock, and that could be The Midnight Club. He was sent off favourite for the Grand National [where he finished 6th] and could surprise us. MJ: I agree with that, The Midnight Club represents excellent each way value. A concern for Long Run is that, while Sam Waley-Cohen is very good, he hasn’t ridden in as many races this year as he had last year. Triumph Hurdle AB: Pearl Swan is the form horse, though Sadler’s Risk is another contender – Philip Hobbs thinks he wasn’t fit enough when beaten by Baby Mix. AT: Balder Succes is now four from four, he’s a good traveller, and is great value. Choc [Thornton] will probably go for Grumeti however, who looks flashy, but I’m not sure he’s tough enough. Baby Mix may bubble over on the day, and while Sadler’s Risk is visibly impressive, he hasn’t really beaten much. Pearl Swan is a bit of a dark horse for Nicholls. DD: Hisaabaat’s form ties in well with Darroun, though I also wouldn’t give up on Ut De Sivola. The home team definitely have the stronger hand here; English horses are very quick and very professional. Dodging Bullets, another contender from the Nicholls yard, is also worth noting. MJ: Baby Mix seems to spend a lot of time in the air, but his last Cheltenham run was more down to jockey/trainer error. Don’t be put off by his strange tail carriage however, he broke it as a foal! Grumeti is not a fancy. He fell, was shortened, was awarded a race, shortened, it doesn’t really add up. For me, Balder Success is the outstanding value. Foxhunter DD: On The Fringe may struggle with the trip. Salsify bolted up last time out, but Chapoturgeon may be a bit ahead of the field. AT: Monkerty Tunkerty for me – he stays well, travels well, will love the ground and the rider knows him inside out. MJ: Chapoturgeon is unlikely to stay, and I have doubts for Cloudy Lane. Barbers Shop may bypass this for the Queen Elizabeth the Queen Mother Memorial Hunters’ Chase at Sandown – apparently the owner has some kind of family connection! Monkerty Tunkerty could be the strongest, though On The Fringe was 4th last year and has a chance, while third-placed Oscar Delta could easily fit the stats and at around 50-1 [best price around 33-1 Thurs am] is great value. Salsify is very impressive however, having won two of Ireland’s biggest Hunter Chases at Leopardstown and Punchestown. It wouldn’t surprise me to see an Irish 1, 2, 3. Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle DD: Mount Benbulben would be the pick, but Gordon Elliot’s yard isn’t really in form for one reason or another, and he might swerve the race. If Boston Bob wins his race however, the Irish form will be well franked. AT: Get stuck into Lovcen each way! Woefully overpriced at 16-1. AB: Lovcen is a big price so may be worth an each way, though Sea Of Thunder would have won at Cheltenham but for falling. Vincent O’Brien County Handicap DD: Moon Dice went well in a key piece of work at Leopardstown. Citizenship needs to be able to stand up for himself a bit more in what could be a rough affair if he’s to stand a chance. AT: Ted Spread could still be well ahead of the handicapper. AB: Snap Tie for me is bet of the day. He runs off a low weight after being dropped 15lb following a year off. He’s returning from injury, but for your years on the trot he’s won first time out, and is now rated 137 from 160 following his time off. Master Of Arts remains unexposed. MJ: If Master Of Arts wins it will be a huge punt. Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Chase AT: Toubab bolted up at Sandown, and jumps very well. AB: Toubab is on a handy weight, and a quick pace will play into his hands. MJ: Oiseau De Nuit seems to be returning to form. Summary An entertaining and informative night combined with a superb meal! The panel clearly weren’t afraid to take on some of the major players, or each other, as proven by the vocalised difference of opinion over Foxhunter favourite Chapoturgeon. The evening was rounded off with tips for a leading rider, banker, each way and lay of the meeting. Leading rider MJ: Choc Thornton, though if anything untoward should happen to him Wayne Hutchinson could be in with a shot, and is currently around 200-1. DD: Paul Townend AB: Ruby Walsh AT: Ruby Walsh Banker MJ: Sizing Europe (although he thinks Sprinter Sacre the most likely winner, and also the most exciting horse of the Festival) DD: Sizing Europe AB: Boston Bob AT: Big Buck’s Each way MJ: Great Endeavour DD: The Midnight Club/Glens Boy AB: Snap Tie (County) AT: Lovcen (Albert Bartlett) Lay MJ: Chapoturgeon DD: Grands Crus AB: Zarkandar AT: Grands Crus/Peddlers Cross

[Cheltenham Chat]

Re: Cheltenham Chat is long run going to run ? i took this from face-book The Cheltenham Gold Cup rumour mill went into overdrive on Monday night and Tuesday morning as reigning champion Long Run was eased in the betting for the race. Less than one week after Kauto Star was reportedly 50/50 for the race after a heavy fall when schooling, Long Run has now drifted on the exchanges, hitting over 3.5 (5/2) before settling at 3.1 on Betfair. Racing fans will be hoping that nothing has gone amiss with Nicky Henderson’s stable star, but in all likelihood the drift could have something to do with encouraging bulletins coming out of the Nicholls stable over Kauto Star and a decision on Grand Crus’ participation in the race. Grand Crus drifted to an alarming 8.00 (7/1) on Betfair for the RSA Chase on Monday evening which would suggest that the Pipe yard are looking to run the ultra-talented chaser in the Gold Cup. He is currently available to back at 9.2 for the Gold Cup, but of more concern to punters may be the fact that Ladbrokes and William Hill both suspended their betting on the race. Head to Ladbrokes now to see all the latest odds and betting ahead of the 2012 Cheltenham Gold Cup. off facebook

[Fri: 3.20 Betfred Cheltenham Gold Cup]

Re: Fri: 3.20 Betfred Cheltenham Gold Cup

If Kauto is 50/50 i think he will run. Otherwise Nicholls would have said he wont be running and wouldnt have waited as long to let people know. So the fact this has been said i reckon he will run and if he does I think he will run aswell as he always has and now at these odds is worth a small punt. anyone wanting to back Kauto go for it now before he is announced as a definite runner. Anyway wishing Kauto all the best and hope to see him win his 6th gold cup! kauto, long run 1,2 :cigar

kauto hasnt won 5 gold cups so hows he going to make it 6 wins in the gold cup

[Cheltenham Preview Nights]

Re: Cheltenham Preview Nights CHELTENHAM FESTIVAL PREVIEW at Bangor-On-Dee Racecourse Thursday, March 1st After the success of the inaugural preview evening hosted by Bangor-on-Dee Racecourse last year, there was a good turnout again for its second airing with local trainer Donald McCain (DM) the star attraction on the panel which was chaired by Darren Owen. Commentator and broadcaster Stewart Machin (SM) and John Morris (JM), author of Jumping Prospects were also panellists as was Cheltenham Festival Betting Guide author Paul Jones. As the night primarily covered the Grade 1 races and Paul’s views on those were given after the Exeter preview, there is no need to repeat those but we will report on all his views again next week at the Knaresborough Preview where they run through all 27 races. SUPREME NOVICES’ HURDLE DM: Agent Archie is possibly more of an Aintree type but if I didn’t have Cinders And Ashes I would be very happy for him to represent me in this race on his own as he has shown enough to warrant running. His owners want to run. Some have questioned Cinders And Ashes’ form but that is the trainer’s fault and not the horse’s. He can only go where I have sent him. I am expecting massive improvement for decent ground, he is twice the specimen of last year, a different horse altogether. Darlan has a huge chance if he has recovered from that bad fall. I’ll be amazed if he has as it looked horrible but they say so and there is no reason to doubt them. SM: The heavy fall for Darlan would still concern me even if he has schooled well since. I spoke to Barry Geraghty for RacingUK and no definitive decision has been made yet on where Simonsig runs. Cinders And Ashes keeps winning despite desperate ground. He is my selection. JM: Galileo’s Choice is a class act from the Flat and there isn’t much jumping from the top of the hill so I seriously respect his chance. Tetlami is the each-way bet, he has a big chance on ratings. ARKLE TROPHY DM: We are getting there with Peddlers Cross but he is not 100% yet. Plan A remains the Arkle until something tells us otherwise. The Jewson is a back-up plan at the moment. We have a couple of schools planned soon. He’ll be coming out of the Queen Mother, I don’t know I put him in it. I was shell shocked when Sprinter Sacre beat him. He clattered the first and was clearly not right for the rest of the race. I was interviewed by Nick Luck afterwards and wanted to sound like a good sport and then got calls from my friends and my wife telling me I was talking sh*t basically. They said he clearly wasn’t right and when I got home and watched it I saw what they meant and he subdued for a few days afterwards. It’s been going the right way since but it’s not perfect. With Sprinter Sacre I would say there is a massive difference between Doncaster and Kempton to Cheltenham but he might be the second coming. SM: What’s value? Not Sprinter Sacre at 5/4 and Cue Card is a bit flaky. If Cue Card sets the gallop the Tizzards say he will then Al Ferof will love it and he strikes me as the best value. JM: Sprinter Sacre jumped a bus every time on his chase debut at Doncaster but shortened up when he needed to on his next start. Not really a great race to have a bet in but I hope Peddlers Cross comes out on top. CHAMPION HURDLE DM: Overturn is in great nick. He galloped here yesterday and the lady who I watched him work with never swears but she did on this occasion. He’s bouncing. He beat Binocular easily in the Fighting Fifth and I thought the Wincanton race he won last time wasn’t up to much. He was a bit flat when second to Grandouet and then we just got greedy running him at Kempton where he never jumped a hurdle. Hurricane Fly beat my best horse last year but nothing is unbeatable. SM: Why won’t Hurricane Fly not win? There is no Peddlers Cross this year. He is far more relaxed according to Mullins and Walsh so why shouldn’t he win? Zarkandar is short enough. Rock On Ruby could be each-way value. You have to think how many think they can beat Hurricane Fly and how many will be ridden to obtain the best possible placing behind him. Rock On Ruby could fit the latter. JM: Oscars Well cost me a fortune with his last flight mistake in the Neptune last year and I would nominate him and Oscars Well as the each-way value. Binocular proved himself again at Wincanton and if he is spot on I would respect him. NEPTUNE INVESTMENTS MANAGEMENT NOVICES’ HURDLE DM: I’d run Simonsig in this, I don’t think he has the gears for a Supreme. I’d also run Boston Bob here for the fact that I would like to run my best staying novice in this race rather than the Albert Bartlett. SM: Monksland is a big player on decent ground and had his form franked earlier today by Lyreen Legend. Noel Meade has won this race before and he promises to be even better when getting decent ground which he has yet to encounter in Ireland. Sous Les Cieux is half-interesting up in trip. JM: I rate Boston Bob very highly but we don’t know where he runs yet. Monksland is my each-way fancy, he is improving all the time and will love the likely better ground. RSA CHASE DM: I’d always keep a novice to novice races in cases like this so I would run Grands Crus here. If everything goes smoothly then he should win. I see Join Together is officially rated higher though. SM: I didn’t think Grands Crus jumped that great at Cheltenham if I am honest and he got in a bit tight to a few so I don’t fancy taking 6/4. I’m struggling to see why Invictus is twice the price of Bobs Worth. I’m worried Bobs Worth could get taken out of his comfort zone and he is not the biggest either. Invictus for me. JM: I have a good feeling for First Lieutenant. We know he comes up the hill having won here last time and I don’t think he has been fully wound up in his races so far on ground that wouldn’t have been suiting him. QUEEN MOTHER CHAMPION CHASE DM: I’m a bit luke warm about this race to be honest. I see no reason why Big Zeb should turn last year’s form around with Sizing Europe and there doesn’t appear to be much else. SM: I interviewed Geraghty for RacingUK and of all his big rides his body language was the most negative for Finian’s Rainbow and he commented that he had not come up to expectations this season. No reason why Big Zeb should reverse with Sizing Europe. I can see Kauto Stone running well. He didn’t settle last time and was only beaten 7 lengths by Sizing Europe on his previous run so he is of interest in a without Sizing Europe market. JM: Finian’s Rainbow is a bit of value for me as is Wishfull Thinking as Big Zeb is getting a bit long in the tooth. Sizing Europe was never going to be a three-miler. He is a good two-mile chaser but I am not sure he is a brilliant two-mile chaser. RYANAIR CHASE DM: No strong view. Somersby has finally won a big one and he could easily now win another. SM: I think Somersby is a horse that needs things to drop right for him. Albertas Run is too old and I don’t think Cheltenham suits Riverside Theatre and I am also sceptical about whether his Ascot win was as good as many think. On good ground I think Noble Prince is exceptional and he has not had his ground all season so he is the one for me. JM: I like Roth Dubh each-way who was staying on when third in the Arkle. 25/1 is too big. Jonjo’s are flying so I respect Albertas Run but I am not convinced racing left-handed suits Riverside Theatre. WORLD HURDLE DM: I wasn’t convinced Big Buck’s was as great as everyone was saying until I was down by the last at Aintree last season and I am now one of his biggest fans. It was a monstrous performance that day. He will probably win but I do think that Oscar Whisky will give him the fright of his life and think he is the best horse he will have faced. SM: The best way to beat Big Buck’s might be to sit a length off him and then kick as soon as he hits a flat spot. There is some interest to be had in the without Big Buck’s market. I fancy they could ride Dynaste differently this time and hold onto him this time. I am not sure Oscar Whisky is in the right race. JM: Will Oscar Whisky stay 3m? I can’t see past Big Buck’s. Ruby is aware of that the flat spot is coming and is ready for it. It’s great for racing if he can win it again. Mikael D’Haguenet each-way for me. TRIUMPH HURDLE DM: Hollow Tree is a fantastic little horse that has already won a Grade 1. His early season form shouldn’t be knocked and the race in which he was third to Grumeti giving him weight but not Pearl Swan is the best piece of 4yo hurdle form this season. I would look no further than that form. He would have been closer too had Jason not lost his whip. SM: I quite like Sadler’s Risk and didn’t think he was knocked about behind Baby Mix. I really can’t have Baby Mix. There is something quirky about him and he got a great ride at Kempton. The stiffer track will also suit Sadler’s Risk and I think he will reverse form. JM: Darroun could be well backed and is the each-way selection. His Leopardstown win is working out well. I do like ex Aga Khan horses. Grumeti looks best of the British and reminds me of Katchit given his toughness. ALBERT BARTLETT NOVICES’ HURDLE DM: I’ve been taking on Brindisi Breeze with no luck this season. All I would say is that ground at Haydock was really bad so beware the form. I had two heavy ground horses run that day and even they couldn’t handle it. Speaking with Gordon Elliott last week he told me that Mount Benbulben was his best chance at Cheltenham. SM: Brindisi Breeze has only run on soft so that would worry me and I don’t think he would be left alone up front at Cheltenham either. I like Rocky Creek as there is plenty more to come and he looks a stout stayer. JM: Boston Bob if the obvious one if he runs here but Lovcen is expected to run well and is each-way value at 20/1. He won a Wincanton handicap very well last time. GOLD CUP DM: Weird Al is very well. In fact, when I got him out for a Grand National media day I thought he looked too well. At Haydock when we were third, Kauto Star was fit to run for his life and we were only 2 lengths behind Long Run but I don’t know how much he needed it. Timmy Murphy was adamant afterwards he was not quite the same horse that won the Charlie Hall and down the back straight said he would have gladly taken third there and then. The ground was not as he would have liked that day but he goes best fresh and it came too soon after Wetherby. The owners want one good crack at the Gold Cup so we decided soon after to go straight to the Gold Cup fresh. If he gets there in form he will run a big race and it is starting to look like he might get his ground. I think Burton Port should have beaten Long Run at Newbury and he is a belting good little horse. SM: We’re in the dark regards Kauto Star following his schooling fall but even if he makes it then it has to be a worry he will be at his best. Long Run is too short and strikes me as vulnerable. I’m not sure which way Burton Port will go after his Newbury return following 16 months off. What A Friend is interesting each-way given his running style. JM: I’m interested in Synchronised who annihilated a good field on ground thought to be dead against him in Ireland. He is a fragile sort though and has had problems since. If he runs, a forgotten horse could be Time For Rupert but the Kauto Star news has thrown me a bit and I really need a rethink. Burton Port each-way at this stage. SHOULDER RACES DM: Charminster will run in the novice handicap chase. He got the fright of his life when running here last time after the likes of Sedgefield and Musselburgh but that has sharpened him up. Bourne goes for the Martin Pipe and the right horses were placed behind him at Ascot last time. Kie runs in the Fred Winter but I’m not sure that Lexi’s Boy will get in now the handicapper has dropped him 5lbs on collateral form which would be annoying. It looks like Tara Royal will have 10st 3lbs in the Grand Annual which is ideal. Richard Harding will ride Cloudy Lane in the Foxhunters’ and he has a right good chance. NAPS DM: Cloudy Lane (Foxhunters’) SM: Noble Prince (Ryanair) JM: Boston Bon (selected novice hurdle)