beaker1
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MY ANTE-POST DIARY -2016/2017
PART 5
The Christmas period often has a big effect on the ante-post markets for the Cheltenham Festivals, with a number of top-class races on both sides of the Irish Sea. It tends to see a number of Festival races thinned out with plenty of dreams shattered as well as some dark horses emerging from out of the woodwork.
Gold Cup
The King George was billed as a match between the two stablemates Cue Card and Thistlecrack but despite the elder statesman challenging briefly down the back straight, it was more of a precession than a race. Despite his relative inexperience, Thistlecrack jumped boldly before sauntering clear as the field turned for home. He never really came off the bridle and was eased down close home to win by just over three lengths at the line. Not surprisingly, he was cut to as short as 4/5 for the Gold Cup because all being well, it looks as though if he gets round, he has an engine bigger than any racehorse in training. Having said that there were a couple of alarming leaps at the open ditches on Boxing Day which could cause him some problems back at Cheltenham and it will be interesting to see how he gets on in the Cotswold Chase in January.
Colin Tizzard appears to have an embarrassment of riches in the staying chase division and Native River threw his hat firmly into the Gold Cup ring with a fine weight carrying performance in the Welsh National at Chepstow. Despite his big weight, the way he raced clear from the fourth last marked him as more than a handicapper and it was only Raz De Maree (carrying 10st 7lb) that managed to get anywhere near him. His jumping was excellent and he looks to have found a perfect partner in Richard Johnson to get the best out of him. A Grade 1 winner last term as a novice, he continues to improve and with stamina unlikely to hold any fears, the winner of the Gold Cup is going to have to go some to get past him.
Over in Ireland, the Lexus Chase promised to throw up some Gold Cup clues and Djakadam was sent off the 5/4 favourite. However, Willie Mullins’ seven-year-old could only finish third to Outlander who he had beaten on his seasonal reappearance at Punchestown and the pair were split by the enigmatic Don Poli. There wasn’t much between the first four home at the final fence but it was Outlander who found most under Jack Kennedy to race clear and win by a widening two lengths.
You would have to think that Djakadam underperformed but he has come up short in two Gold Cups already and it is hard to see him going one better this time around, for all he will only be 8 come March. Willie Mullins said afterwards that they might make more use of him next time as he jumped well yesterday and he could be another to head straight to Cheltenham.
The winner Outlander fell when still holding every chance in the JLT last year but looks set to head back to Cheltenham for the Gold Cup, where he wouldn’t be without a chance. He can still be backed at 20/1 but would prefer a slower surface to be seen to best effect.
Also news came through today that Coneygree now appears likely to head straight to Cheltenham having suffered a setback in recent days. Sara Bradstock said she was still confident of getting the horse there but that they were more focussed on getting him in perfect shape and also raised the possibility of missing Cheltenham entirely.
Champion Hurdle
The big mover in the Champion Hurdle market was Yanworth who put aside any fears about him dropping back to two miles with a ready victory in the Christmas Hurdle at Kempton. Alan King’s six-year-old was a shade disappointing when winning on his return to action and it looked for a long way here as though he was struggling before picking up turning for home. Having moved through to lead at the final flight, he raced away from his rivals to hit the line strong and you would have to think that the stiff finish at Cheltenham is likely to suit him in a strongly run Champion Hurdle. He is now a general 5/1 shot for the race which I think is short considering his hurdling is far from fluent and he looked to be out-paced for much of the race. He could still have improvement in him with March in mind but I suspect he is only as short as 5/1 because there are question marks over the two market leaders Faugheen and Annie Power.
In behind Yanworth was The New One who set out to make all and probably just paid the price for getting racing too early in the latter stages of the race. We know he isn’t good enough to win the Champion Hurdle so I don’t see what connections have to lose by having a go at the World Hurdle, something Sam Twiston-Davies mentioned on Boxing Day. Ch’Tibello ran on well from the back to snatch third but looks some way short of Champion Hurdle class. Whilst My Tent Or Yours looked to have got his ideal conditions but made a tired mistake at the last and it looks as though his best days are behind him.
We got some more clues this afternoon in the Grade 1 Ryanair Hurdle as Petit Mouchoir ran out a ready winner. Henry De Bromhead’s five-year-old looked to be travelling as well as anything when coming down at the third last in the Fighting Fifth and gained compensation with this success. He was in front just after the first flight and remained there for the duration, kicking clear on the turn for home and maintaining his advantage to win by seven lengths from Nichols Canyon. He was trimmed to a general 10/1 for the Champion Hurdle and looks a player judged on this effort.
There was also news of Faugheen in the past couple of days as the former Champion was reported to be working every day and connections are hopeful that they will have him back for the Irish Champion Hurdle on the 29th January. It hasn’t been anything serious that has kept him off the track just a couple of niggles following the stone bruise he suffered a few weeks ago.
Champion Chase
Willie Mullins’ Douvan once again demonstrated just how far clear of his rivals he is by running away with the Paddy Power Cashcard Chase at Leopardstown on Tuesday. The six-year-old was already short for the Champion Chase but he is now as short as 1/3 with Paddy Power to land the spoils at Cheltenham in March. It is very hard to see anything giving him a race in March and in truth, you could make him favourite for almost any race at the Festival. The Champion Chase crown looks his to lose and barring any setbacks, the rest look to be playing for second and third place.
Special Tiara made the most of the race conditions being in his favour when winning the Desert Orchid Chase just over an hour later at Kempton. Henry De Bromhead’s nine-year-old had to work pretty hard to see off the challenge of Sir Valentino but was always doing enough and he should be suited by a return to Cheltenham in March. He has been placed at the last two Festivals and if the ground is on the quick side, he should be thereabouts fighting for a place again this year.
Stayers Hurdle
My ante-post selection Jezki was not declared for the Christmas Hurdle at Leopardstown with JP McManus represented instead by the French import Kotkikova. Jessica Harrington’s eight-year-old does have an entry at Punchestown at the weekend though, so it will be interesting to see if he lines up there.
In his absence, Vroum Vroum Mag led home a 1-2 for the Willie Mullins team as stablemate Clondaw Warrior followed the mare home in second. Ruby Walsh always looked confident on the eventual winner and it might have been a Mullins 1-2-3 had Shaneshill not fallen when still in contention at the final flight. In terms of future targets, Vroum Vroum Mag is likely to be pitched in wherever she is needed with both chases and hurdles a viable option come the Festival. She can be backed at 8/1 for the World Hurdle although I suspect she will be a bit shorter if this ends up being her target.
Ryanair
Following his defeat in the King George, it now appears that Cue Card could be re-routed to the Ryanair, the race he won back in 2013. He was no match for Thistlecrack at Kempton and Native River also looks a viable contender so the Tizzards have raised the possibility of him dropping back in trip, taking in the Grade 1 at Ascot next before heading to Cheltenham. He was introduced as the 5/1 market leader with most firms and although he is a different horse to the one that won three years ago, he would still have to be considered a leading contender.
Another beaten horse in the King George also looks likely to head to the Ryanair and that is Josses Hill who failed to see out the trip on his first start at 3m. The encouraging thing was his jumping has been much better this term in his two successes at Kempton and Huntingdon as well as in the King George on Monday. Whether he is as effective going left-handed over fences is still a question mark but he was third in the Arkle in the not too distant past so he makes some appeal at 14/1.
Novice Hurdlers
Supreme
The big shake-up in the Supreme market came on Boxing Day as the ante-post favourite Jenkins was well-beaten having been sent off the 1/2 favourite for the opening novice hurdle. He had jumped poorly on his hurdling debut at Newbury and here he seemed to be very slow at his obstacles and he found very little when asked to pick up by David Bass. The way he hung after the last perhaps indicated that all was not well with him but he is now as big as 25/1 for the Supreme and that looks a long way off at present.
25/1 is also the price for the winner of the race Elgin who made it two from two over hurdles for Alan King. His trainer was impressed that the four-year-old seemed to have improved for his run at Newcastle and he settled much better for Wayne Hutchinson here. In terms of future plans, he could go back to Kempton for the Dovecote prior to having a crack at the Festival.
The Grade 1 Future Champions Novice Hurdle at Leopardstown can often throw up a nice horse and this time around it went the way of Saturnas who went one better than when chasing home Airlie Beach at Fairyhouse earlier this month. He seemed to appreciate more forceful tactics and whilst I suspect he could come up short in both races, I think he could end up in the Neptune come March.
Neptune
Willie Mullins has another couple of potential runners in the Neptune including Bacardys who made no mistake when getting off the mark at the second attempt over hurdles earlier this week. Having fallen on his first attempt, the five-year-old still made the odd jumping mistake but had plenty in hand when making his move around the home turn. He clearly has an engine having won the Aintree bumper last year and his trainer intimated afterwards that he could step up in trip next time. He is as big as 20/1 for the Neptune, but we are unlikely to know what race he is lining up in until much nearer the time.
Battleford also managed to get back to winning ways this afternoon when getting the better of a prolonged duel with Coeur Joyeux at Leopardstown. The five-year-old made quite a few errors on the way round but he definitely seemed to appreciate the step up in trip and he could even go up in trip again. His trainer suggested afterwards that the five-year-old may not be fully fit yet because of his size and whilst further progress can’t be ruled out, he is going to have to take a good step forward to be of interest for the Spring Festivals.
Triumph
There were quite a number of reputations put to the test in this division in the last week and the one who emerged most favourably was Defi Du Seuil who assumed sole favouritism with an impressive victory in the Finale Hurdle at Chepstow. Philip Hobbs’ three-year-old was well fancied beforehand and had no trouble brushing aside the smart Evening Hush on the run to the third last before stretching clear in the closing stages. He did get a little lonely late on as he made a couple of jumping errors but he had plenty in hand and coasted home to win by thirteen lengths. He does seem to enjoy a bit of cut in the ground so were the ground to come up quick at Cheltenham, it would pose something of a question mark but he is very exciting and at this stage he looks a leading contender for the race.
In fact, JP McManus looks to hold a strong hand with the army of juveniles at Joseph O’Brien’s disposal and he also introduced a nice horse of Nicky Henderson’s at Kempton on Tuesday in Charli Parcs. This was the horse’s British debut having won a hurdle at Enghien in November and he jumped very well on just his second start. He raced clear of his rivals once sent into the lead at the third last and Noel Fehily barely had to move on him. He was much the best on the day despite conceding at least 5lb to all his rivals and he looks a smart prospect with the Triumph in mind.
Before Christmas, Joseph O’Brien’s Landofhopeandglory was towards the head of most lists but he now finds himself as big as 12/1 having finished second to old rival Bapaume at Leopardstown on Boxing Day. The pair had met at Fairyhouse at the beginning of the month but Willie Mullins’ gelding seemed to benefit from the run and in receipt of 3lb, he was able to reverse the placings. I suspect that there will be a couple of horses we haven’t seen yet who will be popular for the Triumph but these two set a decent standard and I don’t see them being too far away on the day.
Another one to throw into the mix is Meri Devie who made a successful start to her hurdling career at Leopardstown the following day. The three-year-old was beaten less than five lengths in Group 1 company in May on the flat and ran out a ready winner here from the well-touted Housesofparliament. Ruby Walsh believes that she will improve for the run both in terms of her jumping as well as fitness and the 7lb allowance she would receive in the Triumph makes her of serious interest. Further back in the field was Queen’s Vase winner Sword Fighter who will need to jump better if he is to make an impact in this sphere.
Novice Chasers
Arkle
The top two in the market both had a run in the past week with Min being the first to showcase his talents on Boxing Day. He was sent off the 4/5F in a race which included Identity Thief but that rival only made it half way down the back straight as following a few notable errors, he was pulled up and found to be lame. In contrast, Willie Mullins’ five-year-old jumped impeccably out in front and had his rivals in trouble on the run to the last. He made a strange shape at the final fence but got over safely and raced away up the run-in to win impressively. He has a few lengths to find with Altior on last season’s Supreme but the Mullins camp believe that he wasn’t himself that day, so a closer race could well be on the cards.
Over at Kempton, Altior had no problem seeing off three rivals to land the Grade 2 Wayward Lad Novices’ Chase. The six-year-old jumped well the whole way round and having been given a little bit of rein, he moved through to lead at the third last before coasting clear under Noel Fehily. All roads now appear to head towards Cheltenham and the rematch of last year’s Supreme and at this stage it looks hard to split them.
As for the third home in last year’s Supreme, Buveur D’Air is set to make his second start over fences at Haydock tomorrow. That race is over the best part of 2m3f so it will be interesting to see how he goes up in trip.
RSA
The Grade 1 Novice Chase at Leopardstown today threw up a few clues with Jessica Harrington’s Our Duke getting the better of Coney Island and Disko in a close finish. The winner had made quite an impression when winning at Navan a few weeks ago and showed a fine attitude to see off his two rivals and land a first Grade 1. With Cheltenham in mind he will need to sharpen up his jumping, as he made the odd error on the way round but the RSA looks made for him and he is now a general 10/1 second favourite behind Bellshill, who won at Limerick on Boxing Day.
The runner-up Coney Island didn’t lose much in defeat and could also head for the RSA, whilst the fourth home Martello Tower could be an interesting one for the 4 mile National Hunt Chase, although he may need softer ground to be seen to best effect.
On this side of the Irish Sea, Might Bite has to come into consideration for the RSA as he would have no doubt run out a ready winner of the Kauto Star Novices’ Chase but for falling at the final fence. He was well clear at the time and that mistake aside, he jumped pretty well. He also showed a tendency to jump to his left at times which suggests Cheltenham will suit and as long as he is none the worse for this fall, he looks a likely runner.
Misc Races
Mares Hurdle
Gordon Elliott’s Missy Tata has now won her last five starts following a convincing success in the Listed Irish Independent Hurdle at Limerick yesterday. She looks to be improving at a rapid rate and although her connections believe she will make a fine chaser next year, they also think she can pick up a big prize before the end of the season. She could now head straight to Cheltenham and whilst no target has been confirmed, this race looks the most likely unless she goes down the handicapping route.
We also got a first look at Kotkikova yesterday who was a prolific winner in her native France and she shaped with some promise over 3m at Leopardstown. This was as far as she had raced over in her career to date and she looked as though it might have been a bit far for her in the closing stages. I would not be surprised to see her drop back in trip next time and the Mares’ Hurdle looks a sensible target for her.
Cross-Country
News filtered through this morning that last year’s runner-up and ante-post favourite Josie’s Orders will miss the race having suffered an injury. His stablemate Cantlow who won at Cheltenham in November is now the general 4/1 favourite with most firms ahead of the likes of Alechi Inois, Quantitativeeasing and Any Currency.
Bumper
The picture for the Champion Bumper looks as murky as always at the moment with most of those towards the head of the ante-post lists trained by Willie Mullins. He introduced his latest smart recruit at Leopardstown yesterday as Carter McKay made a winning debut under Patrick Mullins. A wide margin winner of an Irish point, he was subsequently bought for £165,000 by David Redvers and races in the colours of Pearl Bloodstock. He had to work pretty hard to get the job done on this occasion but I’m sure his connections will be keen to get him to the Festival and he is available at as big as 25/1 for the Champion Bumper.
Bets
CILAOS EMERY (Supreme Novices) – 1pt e/w @ 12/1 NRNB (Sky Bet)
The first of two bets suggested this week is this four-year-old who made quite an impression a couple of weeks ago when winning at Navan. The form of that race has been boosted with the runner-up Joey Sasa having won at Leopardstown on Boxing Day and I suspect that the winner could be creeping up the Willie Mullins pecking order. With the below-par run of Jenkins at the weekend, the race looks to have a much more open look to it and it has been pleasing to see this gelding attract support in recent days. Like most of the Willie Mullins novice hurdlers it is hard to know for sure which race they will run in but we have the security of No Runner No Bet in this race so I think he is worth a bet. He should be stepped up in grade before long but his trainer spoke fondly of him after his latest win and I suspect we haven’t seen the best of him yet.
NATIVE RIVER (Gold Cup) – 1pt e/w @ 9/1 (Betway)
Despite the performance of Thistlecrack at Kempton on Boxing Day, I still have my reservations about his jumping, especially given the way that he tackled the open ditches. I therefore think it is worth looking elsewhere for an angle and in a race in which a lot of the contenders are known entities, the big improver in the race looks to be Native River, who has gone from strength to strength this term. I was really impressed with the way he drew clear of his rivals at Chepstow before the weight started to take its toll and he looks ready for a crack at Grade 1 company again. His jumping is a major asset as well as his stamina which bodes well for a Gold Cup horse and the potential absence of Coneygree could mean he is allowed to dictate from the front. I think it will take a good one to get past him on the day and at 9/1, I think he looks a good each-way bet, especially with so many doubts surrounding a number of his rivals.
Ante-Post Portfolio
JEZKI (Stayers Hurdle) – 1pt e/w @ 14/1 (bet365, Betfred)
CHARBEL (JLT Novices’ Chase) – 0.5pt e/w @ 33/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook)
CILAOS EMERY (Supreme Novices) – 1pt e/w @ 12/1 NRNB (Sky Bet)
NATIVE RIVER (Gold Cup) – 1pt e/w @ 9/1 (Betway- arsenalfh, BillyHills, Jimmy2shoes and 1 other
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MY ANTE-POST DIARY -2016/2017
PART 4
Gold Cup
The staying chase division may have needed a lift this week as following the news on Sunday that Coneygree would miss the King George following a unsatisfactory piece of work, it looked as though Kempton’s Boxing Day showpiece would be something of a formality. However, news came on Monday that the owners of Thistlecrack had decided to step the eight-year-old out of novice company and take on stablemate Cue Card in the King George.
This is clearly going to be the biggest test of Thistlecrack’s chasing career to date and the big question mark is how his jumping will hold up in this more competitive race, likely to be run at a stronger gallop than the three chases he has contested so far. If his jumping does stand up to the rigours of race, then it is hard to argue he won’t have too many gears for his older stablemate but it promises to be quite a clash.
The Lexus Chase at Leopardstown on the 28th also promises to be an informative race with Valseur Lido set to head there instead of coming over for the King George.
There was also news of last season’s Gold Cup winner Don Cossack who is reported to be making a steady recovery from the injury he suffered back in April. A programme of cantering and swimming is keeping the nine-year-old ticking over at the minute and his trainer has suggested that he is likely to have one run, possibly in the Red Mills Chase in February before heading straight to the Gold Cup.
I continue to look at the Gold Cup market with the view that there must be a bet to be had but at the minute I am struggling to find an angle, especially with so many question marks over some of the leading protagonists.
Champion Hurdle
The same can be said about the Champion Hurdle for which Annie Power and Faugheen share favouritism in most books at around 5/2, with Yanworth next best at around the 8/1 mark.
It is probably a reflection of the lack of depth in the 2m hurdling division on this side of the water than Brain Power was introduced into the market at 25/1 following his impressive success at Ascot on Saturday. Of course we didn’t see most of it but he came readily clear under David Mullins in the closing stages and it was some performance under a big weight. Having said that, he still looks some way short of Champion Hurdle class at the moment and would need to improve a good deal to trouble the Irish contenders come March.
The Christmas Hurdle at Kempton can often have a bearing on the Champion Hurdle market but the race was reopened this morning having attracted just the five runners at the entry stage. We will know more by lunchtime tomorrow but Yanworth, My Tent Or Yours and The New One appear to be likely runners and no doubt Willie Mullins will have something to send over.
Stayers Hurdle
Our first bit of housekeeping in this section is to highlight that with Sun Bets having taken over the sponsorship of this race from Ladbrokes, they have decided to change its name back to the Stayers Hurdle, dropping the World Hurdle title which it has carried in recent years.
To more important news and Unowhatimeanharry solidified his place at the head of the market as he stretched his winning sequence to seven in the Grade 1 Long Walk Hurdle at Ascot on Saturday. His task was made somewhat easier by Ballyoptic falling at the last but the eight-year-old found plenty for Barry Geraghty and won with four and a half lengths to spare at the line.
Back in second was Lil Rockerfeller who once again ran a creditable race although his trainer felt afterwards that he may have found himself further back than ideal. This might have been the case but he certainly saw the three miles out ok and this looks to be his likely target at the Festival.
As for the final flight faller Ballyoptic this was a much more encouraging performance than his run at Newbury but he seems to be making a habit of falling towards the end of his races. He clearly sticks his neck out for his jockey but if he is having tired falls at Wetherby and Ascot then the likelihood is that he might find the Cheltenham hill a little tricky.
In terms of our bet for the race, it was good to hear news from the Jessica Harrington team this week that Jezki is all set to return in the Christmas Hurdle at Leopardstown next week. The eight-year-old seems to have taken preparations well and let’s hope he can put in a solid effort on his return to action.
Novice Hurdlers
Supreme
SkyBet were the first firm to go No Runner No Bet (NRNB) on this race on Friday ahead of the Grade 2 Sky Bet Supreme Trial Novices’ Hurdle at Ascot on Friday. That race went the way of Paul Nicholls’ Capitaine who may have been a shade disappointing when finishing second at Haydock last month, but the quicker ground and the switch to front-running tactics seemed to make a big difference. He beat a field which included the likes of Captain Forez, who shaped well when third behind Jenkins at Newbury as well as two well-regarded Nicky Henderson runners in Lough Derg Spirit and Thomas Campbell. The last two mentioned look ready for a step up in trip now but the winner was trimmed to around 25/1 on the back of this effort.
Willie Mullins has a number of horses that could potentially line up in the Supreme but I must admit I was impressed with the way Cilaos Emery got the job done at Navan last weekend. The four-year-old was making his first start since landing a bumper at the end of April and had no trouble seeing off more experienced rivals to win by six lengths at the line. It is hard to know how strong the form is in behind but he looks to have an engine and I would like to see him step up in class before long.
We might get more of an idea of the Mullins pecking order in the next week as the entries for the Future Champions Novice Hurdle at Leopardstown included six from the stable including the likes of Airlie Beach, Penhill and Crack Mome. On this side of the Irish sea, the favourite Jenkins looks set to line-up at Kempton on Boxing Day, having been entered in the opening novice hurdle. The form of his Newbury win has worked out to varying degrees but this promises to be a stiffer test of his credentials.
Neptune
Invitation Only was demoted from the head of the Neptune market on Sunday as Willie Mullins’ five-year-old could only finish third behind Gordon Elliott’s Death Duty at Navan. The winner has now assumed favouritism in both this race and the Albert Bartlett, although given he is as short as 9/4 for the latter it seems he is more likely to head down the 3m route. I have to say that I was really impressed with the way Death Duty quickened up given his size and you would have to think that he will relish stepping up in trip before long.
A possible outsider for the Neptune could be High Bridge who made a winning start to his hurdling career at Newbury last week. The five-year-old was a smart bumper horse for John Ferguson, finishing sixth in the Champion Bumper and he stayed on strongly here to win in some style. This was over 2m but he looks ready for a step up to 2m4f and if he has a potential target at the Festival it is likely to be this.
Another potential Neptune prospect is Finians Oscar who went a little way to justifying his £250,000 price tag when winning by seven lengths at Hereford yesterday. This Irish point winner is reported to be one of the best young horses in the stable of Colin Tizzard and he had little trouble seeing off course winner Acting Lass who was carrying a penalty. Clearly three miles could be on his radar before the end of the season although Tizzard missed Cheltenham with Thistlecrack a couple of years ago in favour of the Sefton at Aintree and it could be that this four-year-old does the same.
Albert Bartlett
Paul Nicholls has yet to win the Albert Bartlett and whilst this contest wasn’t mentioned for either horse, he has introduced a couple of smart 3m prospects in the last week.
Give Me A Copper cost £270,000 on the back of winning a maiden point and a bumper in Ireland and he had no trouble getting off the mark for Paul Nicholls at Exeter last week. When most of his rivals had cried enough, the six-year-old forged clear under Sam Twiston-Davies to win by fourteen lengths. He is clearly a chaser in the making but he should be able to pick up a nice prize this year and he was introduced at a general 25/1 for the Albert Bartlett.
His stablemate Topofthegame also looked one for the future when winning at Ascot on Friday, despite having a good look around after the final flight. Thankfully Sam Twiston-Davies got just enough out of him to hold on and he looks sure to be suited by the step up to three miles. He beat Dan Skelton’s No Hassle Hoff but nine lengths in a point-to-point and looks another promising youngster for the Ditcheat team.
Mares Novice
I mentioned a couple of weeks ago that Camelia De Cotte had attracted support for the Mares Novice Hurdle and Willie Mullins’ four-year-old made a winning start to her career in Ireland at Tramore last week. Sent off the 1/5 favourite Ruby Walsh always looked to have plenty in hand and once he gave her a bit of rein, the four-year-old picked up impressively to win going away from her rivals. She is as short as 5/1 for the Novice in March but can still be backed at 8/1 with a couple of firms.
Fergal O’Brien has enjoyed a fine start to the season and the mare Colin’s Sister embodies that, having won three times, most recently a Listed hurdle at Haydock last weekend. When she has her conditions she seems to pretty good but her trainer is on record as saying that the further she goes the better so perhaps this 2m contest is not on her radar despite being as short as 12/1.
Novice Chasers
Arkle
Two of the top five in the ante-post market made their chasing debuts last weekend, beginning with last year’s Neptune winner Yorkhill who had no trouble seeing off his rivals at Fairyhouse on Saturday. The six-year-old jumped well throughout but it was noticeable that he was inclined to jump to his left at times. That clearly wouldn’t be as much of an issue at Cheltenham but it might just have been inexperience which caused him to do that. He would clearly have been a leading hope for the Supreme had connections decided to go down that route last year and I suspect that a similar conversation may be had at some stage regarding the Arkle or the JLT. Personally, I would like to see him stick down the 2m route and his trainer indicated afterwards that the Irish Arkle was likely to be his next target.
The other leading hope to embark on a chasing career at the weekend was Nicky Henderson’s Buveur D’Air who may have finished third to stablemate Altior in the Supreme but he showed he was a talented performer in his own right when winning a Grade 1 at Aintree. Like most of the racing on Saturday it was hard to see much of the race at Haydock but Aidan Coleman was happy to take a lead for the majority of the race before moving through to challenge at the last. Once he was given half a push, he soon quickened clear of the smart Cloudy Dream (who was conceding 8lb to the winner) to win in fine style. He is another who could step up to 2m4f before long and certainly the JLT could come into consideration with the prospect of facing Altior on connections’ minds.
Cloudy Dream didn’t lose anything in defeat and clearly on level weights it would have been a lot harder for the winner. Malcolm Jefferson is confident that better ground will bring about improvement in his horse, although I suspect he is likely to come up a little short were he to tackle the Arkle.
Over in Ireland, we could have an interesting clash at Leopardstown as Min and Identity Thief have both been entered to run in the Racing Post Chase. Both look to have bright futures ahead of them over the bigger obstacles and it should give us a better idea of where they stand with the Arkle in mind.
JLT
The form of my selection Charbel got a nice boost last week with Le Prezien and Top Notch and both winning again over fences, leading bookmakers to trim them for this race. The former took on a more experienced rival in the shape of L’Ami Serge at Exeter in the week and having jumped well for the most part, stayed on strongly to win going away under Barry Geraghty. The extra couple of furlongs didn’t seem to trouble the five-year-old and the JLT looks the most likely option should he head to the Festival although most of his form has been on soft ground so Spring ground may prove a different kettle of fish for him.
There was also a lot to like about the performance of Top Notch on Saturday or at least the last couple of fences, where he jumped well before digging up deep late on to hold off his rivals Sizing Codelco and Hammersly Lake. The 2m5f trip may just have stretched him on Saturday so it might be that he misses Cheltenham in favour of the 2m4f chase at Aintree but it is good to see the form working out well for Kim Bailey’s Charbel.
Another who might have thrown his hat into the ring for this race is Politologue who made just about all to win the Grade 2 Noel Novices’ Chase at Ascot on Friday. The five-year-old jumped boldly out in front for Sam Twiston-Davies and was probably just idling when having to be driven out from the back of the last. Paul Nicholls was keen to rule out the RSA as a potential target for the Spring and suggested that he was likely to keep the gelding to 2m4f for the time being. Much like Le Prezien, he still needs to show that he can reproduce that form on better ground but he jumped really well on Friday and looks to have a bright future over the larger obstacles.
RSA
Warren Greatrex’s One Track Mind was fancied to make a big impact over fences this term but the six-year-old once again found himself coming up short at Catterick last week. Stepping up to 3m, he never travelled with much fluency and was given reminders on the second circuit by Gavin Sheehan. He kept on eventually to finish third but was some ten lengths behind the Sue Smith trained pair of Delusionofgrandeur and Vintage Clouds. He doesn’t seem to have taken to fences so far so it will be interesting to see where connections go next.
As for the winner, he looks a strong staying chaser for the future which is typical for the yard and looks a nice horse, whilst the runner-up continues to bump into one, although he should improve as he develops physically.
One horse who I followed closely as a novice hurdler last year was Rebecca Curtis’ Mystical Knight and he made a winning start to his chasing career at Hereford yesterday. The seven-year-old was wearing a tongue-strap for the first time and it seemed to help him as he won in good style from some horses who were arguably better over hurdles. Clearly something was amiss when he underperformed at Aintree in the Sefton but this dual winning pointer looks to have found his game and he is as big as 33/1 for the RSA at this early stage.
The final one to mention with regards to this race is Barney Dwan who having made a bad mistake when having the race at his mercy at Kempton, was brought down at Wincanton last week when looking as though he was set to gain compensation. This six-year-old won the EBF Final last year so clearly has an engine and I think he can improve as a chaser. He does need to sharpen up his jumping as he was a bit guessy early on at Wincanton but he is in good hands and should be able to pick up a race before long.
Bets
I have no bets to advise this week, I think the next week will give us a clearer picture on a few races so we will keep our powder dry for the time being.
Ante-Post Portfolio
JEZKI (World Hurdle) – 1pt e/w @ 14/1 (bet365, Betfred)
CHARBEL (JLT Novices’ Chase) – 0.5pt e/w @ 33/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook -
MY ANTE-POST DIARY -2016/2017
PART 3
Champion Hurdle
Nigel Twiston-Davies’ The New One put any talk of novice chasing on hold at the weekend as he landed a third renewal of the International Hurdle under Richard Johnson. In a switch of tactics from normal, the eight-year-old made the running before seeing off the challenge of My Tent Or Yours (to whom he was conceding 8lb) up the hill. It now seems that he will stick down the hurdling route and could go next to Kempton for the Christmas Hurdle before returning to Cheltenham in March for another go at the Champion Hurdle (for which he is as short as 14/1). However, it is worth noting that Twiston-Davies’ assistant trainer Carl Llewellyn thinks it would be better to perhaps go down the World Hurdle route, having come up short in three renewals of the Champion already. I suspect that we will see him on the Tuesday of the Festival rather than the Thursday.
As for the runner-up, it was another disappointing performance from My Tent Or Yours who was best off at the weights with most of his rivals but having travelled well, he once again found very little when push came to shove. I do think he is a better horse on better ground and once again the conditions transpired against him here, but he now has something to prove on his next start.
The potential improver in the race looked to be Mister Miyagi but having been badly behaved in the preliminaries he ran no sort of race under Harry Skelton. This ground was probably soft enough for him but he was still some way short of what was expected.
Champion Chase
Sunday saw the return to action of the ante-post favourite Douvan and Willie Mullins’ charge could not have been more impressive in dispatching his rivals at Cork. Paul Townend sent the six-year-old into the lead early on and he jumped brilliantly out in front before extending his advantage after the fourth last. He made a slight error at the third last but he raced clear of his rivals on the bridle and he won by 22 lengths despite never appearing to come out of second or third gear. It is worth noting that the second and third Days Hotel and Fine Rightly are unlikely to be of the level of opposition that he will face in March but this was still a very impressive display. At this stage, it looks something of a one-horse race with Douvan now as short as 4/9 and barring any accidents he looks likely to pick up this prize, but there is still a long way to go until we get to March and as we saw with his stablemate Faugheen last year, anything can happen between now and the Festival.
Gold Cup
The runner-up in the last two Gold Cups Djakadam made a winning reappearance on Sunday as he landed the John Durkan Memorial Chase for a second consecutive year. Ruby Walsh always had the leaders in his sights aboard the seven-year-old and looked to be going best when moving through to lead on the run to the second last. He was challenged from the back of the last but his stamina soon kicked in and he found plenty on the run to the line to win by one and a quarter lengths. The second and third places were filled by the two Gigginstown runners Outlander and Sub Lieutenant who as we know are both a little short of Grade 1 class but it was still a good performance.
In terms of the Gold Cup, you would have to think that he is likely to find one too good come March as he has in the last two years but the injury he picked at Cheltenham in January must have interrupted his preparation last season and with a clear run this time perhaps he can put up a career best performance. He is still only seven but he doesn’t jump out as must bet at 10/1 at present.
Ryanair
The disappointment of the John Durkan was Black Hercules who was expected to give his stablemate a race but having made a couple of jumping errors on the way round, he dropped away tamely once the pace quickened. Apparently, no obvious reason for the below-par display has come to light but he has turned in the odd puzzling display in the past so perhaps it is best just to put a line through it. Having won the JLT at last year’s Festival the Ryanair seems the logical target and he was pushed out to as big as 14/1 for that race.
Paul Nicholls’ Frodon was also introduced into the Ryanair market by a couple of firms following his win in the Caspian Caviar Gold Cup at the weekend. He does still have the option of going down the novice route which would seem more likely at this stage but he continues to improve with racing and I’m sure all options will be kept open until the last minute.
Novice Hurdlers
Supreme
Nicky Henderson’s Jenkins has now assumed favouritism for the Supreme on the back of Pingshou’s victory at Cheltenham on Friday. Colin Tizzard’s charge finished fourth behind Jenkins at Newbury last month and travelled smoothly into contention before quickening away in the closing stages. As for Nicky Henderson’s horse, he could make his next start in the Supreme Trial at Ascot on Friday.
I mentioned in last week’s post that Crack Mome had attracted support for the Supreme and he made a pleasing start to life over hurdles when winning at Clonmel on Thursday. The Graham Wylie-owned four-year-old came away smartly from his rivals on the run-in and it seems that he will stick down the 2m route. The ground at Clonmel may also have been soft enough for him and whist we are likely to learn more about him next time, he looks a smart prospect.
Another one who looks worth mentioning is Jessica Harrington’s Sunni May who made it two from two over hurdles when winning at Punchestown on Sunday. The five-year-old is now set to step up in class over Christmas where we are likely to get a gauge on how good he is but he did it nicely on Sunday and looks to have a bright future ahead of him.
Neptune
Invitation Only currently leads the market for the Neptune but the Mullins stable also look to have another string to that bow in the shape of Turcagua who made light work of some decent rivals in a maiden hurdle at Punchestown on Sunday. The six-year-old drew readily clear of wide margin bumper winner Champagne Classic and smart flat performer Toe The Line. He seemed to take a big step forward from his run at that venue on November and looks a chaser in the making. He is available at 25/1 for both the Neptune and the Albert Bartlett.
On this side of the Irish Sea, Ben Pauling’s Willoughby Court got off the mark at the second attempt over hurdles at Warwick last week. The five-year-old finished fifth in the Grade 2 bumper at Aintree in April and showed a good attitude here to see off Tommy Rapper in the closing stages. At present he looks one for handicaps over this trip but he could benefit from a step up in trip judged on this outing.
Albert Bartlett
The Grade 2 Novice Hurdle of the same name at Cheltenham last Saturday saw Nigel Twiston-Davies’ Wholestone win for the third time over hurdles. Having won over 3m here in October, he was touched off over 2m5f here last time but seemed to relish the return to this trip. He found plenty for pressure to see off Ami Desbois up the run-in and he is priced between 16/1 and 20/1 for the Albert Bartlett in March.
Triumph
With Landofhopeandglory having impressed on his latest outing a couple of weeks ago, all eyes were on Defi Du Seuil at the weekend to see how he would fare back at Cheltenham on Saturday. He faced a stronger field than he had there in November but the result was the same as Philip Hobbs’ juvenile barely got out of second gear to dispatch the Wetherby winner Coeur De Lion. The Finale at Chepstow was mentioned in the aftermath although that might come soon enough but the Triumph is the main target this season and he is now a general 8/1 for the race.
We probably haven’t seen most of the strings in Paul Nicholls’ juvenile bow but to date his best looks to be Cliffs Of Dover who made it six from seven over hurdles when winning the Grade 2 Summit Juvenile Hurdle at Doncaster at the weekend. I suspect that he is some way behind the current market leaders in terms of ability but he is tough and looks to have earned his place in the field.
Over in Ireland, there was an impressive debut performance from Dinaria Des Obeaux who turned the 3yo maiden hurdle into a precession at Cork on Sunday. Gordon Elliott’s juvenile won a bumper in France in April and looks to have earned a step up in grade on the back of this 29 lengths success. She was introduced at a general 20/1 for the Triumph on the back of this debut victory.
Mares Novice
Willie Mullins looks to have plenty of darts to throw at this race but another stable who could have a strong hand is Nicky Henderson who could saddle Kayf Grace who had no trouble getting off the mark at the first attempt over hurdles at Bangor on Friday. The six-year-old got the better of Augusta Kate in the Grade 2 Mares’ Bumper at Aintree in April and took to hurdling well, quickening nicely clear on the run to the line. She is as big as 12/1 whereas Augusta Kate is around half that price but is still early days with her and it will be interesting to see how she fares next time.
Novice Chasers
JLT
Before reflecting on any performances, we have news on a couple of the ante-post market leaders including the favourite Yorkhill who looks set to make his chasing debut in Ireland this weekend. He is far from guaranteed to run in the JLT as I get the impression that connections are keen to have a go at the Arkle if possible but we know he is a high-class hurdler and he looks to have all the credentials to go to the very top over fences.
Clan Des Obeaux laid down his own marker when winning at Newbury last month and Paul Nicholls has said that he is likely to make his next start in the Dipper Novices Chase at Cheltenham on New Year’s Day.
Those two are split in the market by American Tom who won on his chasing debut at Punchestown, getting the better of the smart Gangster. This was just his third career start and his second success since joining Willie Mullins. He should appreciate going left handed having jumped that way for much of the race and with this experience under his belt, he should be able to be competitive up in grade.
They could be joined in this race by O O Seven who was a disappointing favourite when stepped up to three miles at Doncaster at the weekend. He had won well over 2m4f at Cheltenham on his reappearance and having come up short on Saturday, I suspect he will drop back in trip for his next assignment.
RSA
Getting the better of O O Seven on Saturday was Paul Nicholls’ Present Man who followed up his handicap success at Ascot with another game performance under Jack Sherwood. He got the better of Potters Legend who finished second and can be backed at 33/1 for the RSA.
Slightly shorter in the market for the RSA is Whisper who got back to winning ways at Cheltenham despite the lesser fancied of the two Henderson runners beforehand. He was ridden patiently by Davy Russell which he seemed to enjoy and he found enough for pressure to see off Baron Alco up the Cheltenham hill.
The disappointment of the race was Different Gravey whose jumping badly let him down on this occasion. It didn’t look as though there was anything wrong with him afterwards but this might send connections back to the drawing board and he is likely to see his sights lowered in a bid to get some confidence back.
Bets
I have no bets to advise this week.
Ante-Post Portfolio
JEZKI (World Hurdle) – 1pt e/w @ 14/1 (bet365, Betfred)
CHARBEL (JLT Novices’ Chase) – 0.5pt e/w @ 33/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook -
MY ANTE-POST DIARY -2016/2017
PART 2
Champion Hurdle
Faugheen missed another potential return last week as the eight-year-old did not feature amongst the declarations for the Hatton’s Grace Hurdle at Fairyhouse on Sunday. However, having missed the Morgiana with a bruise, Patrick Mullins reported on Friday that the gelding was back in work but that they were keen to wait until he was really sparkling before sending him back to the racecourse. Christmas looks a likely target with both the Christmas Hurdle at Kempton, which he has won for the past two seasons or the Ryanair Hurdle at Leopardstown both potential starting points.
In his absence, the Hatton’s Grace produced a thrilling renewal with Apple’s Jade getting the better of Faugheen’s stablemate Vroum Vroum Mag in a head-bobbing finish. The winner had the benefit of race fitness and she seemed to appreciate the step up in trip as she battled back gamely on the far side to hold off her rival. She is as short as 12/1 for the Champion Hurdle on the back of this but you would have to think that the Mares’ Hurdle looks more likely at this stage. There doesn’t look to be much between these two and a glance at the betting for the Mares Hurdle tells you a similar story.
Away from the racecourse, one interesting piece of news to come out this week was that Yanworth is likely to stick down the two mile route, in a bid to keep him away from Unowhatimeanharry, who wears the same colours. He has been given an entry in the International Hurdle at the weekend but I understand that is as a back-up for My Tent Or Yours so it might be that we see him next at Kempton in the Christmas Hurdle. Personally, I felt that going up in trip was the only way to go following his laboured display in the Coral Hurdle and although he is as short as 10/1 for the Champion Hurdle, I would be surprised if he were good enough to break the Mullins stranglehold on the race.
I briefly alluded to this weekend’s International Hurdle a little earlier and this could offer some clues with Mister Miyagi, My Tent Or Yours, Old Guard and The New One all believed to be likely participants. Some of them have plenty to prove with March in mind but it looks a decent renewal and it will be interesting to see who comes out on top.
Champion Chase
Sandown’s Tingle Creek attracted more attention last week for those not present than those who did turn up but despite Douvan swerving that engagement in favour of running at Cork this weekend, we were still treated to a pulsating renewal.
The race still went to the Master of Closutton as Un De Sceaux prevailed from Sire De Grugy despite making a mistake at the final two fences. If anything it was Un De Sceaux’s stamina which just gave him the advantage in the closing stages and unless it was soft ground, I find it hard to see winning a Champion Chase at the second attempt. I think we can all agree that Sire De Grugy’s best days are behind him and the close-up third God’s Own ran a fine race considering his blunder at the second fence but I think it is fair to say that we know his limitations with March in mind.
The one to take out of the race has to be Ar Mad who set out to make all under Joshua Moore but his jumping went to pieces briefly down the back straight. Sandown can do that to horses as the fences come up so quickly but it was encouraging to see him get back on an even keel and run on so strongly in the closing stages. It is no surprise to hear Gary Moore is considering stepping him up in trip but I wouldn’t bet against him reversing the form with those three if they met again. The question mark re the Champion Chase is that he has yet to prove he is as effective going left-handed and whilst the Ryanair would also be a viable option, I don’t think the Champion Chase has been completely ruled out just yet.
World Hurdle
Not much to talk about here other than what I have already mentioned above re Unowhatimeanharry. With Alan King’s Yanworth being kept away from the Long Walk Hurdle, it would appear that Harry Fry’s eight-year-old will represent the McManus operation in that race. In terms of the World Hurdle, he is now as short as 9/2 with the unlikely participant Faugheen, the only one ahead of him in the betting.
Gold Cup
The John Durkan Chase at Punchestown on Sunday is likely to see one of the Gold Cup contenders start their season off as Djakadam could attempt to defend his crown. A runner-up in the last two renewals of the Gold Cup, Willie Mullins’ gelding is still only seven and if he returns in the same form as he did twelve months ago, it is likely his price for the Gold Cup will contract come Sunday evening. It is worth bearing in mind that he is one of eight entries from the Mullins stable but at this stage he appears a likely runner.
Jonjo O’Neill’s Minella Rocco attracted some support for the Gold Cup at big prices last week but his supporters’ confidence will have been dented by the crashing fall at the final fence at Aintree on Saturday. He looked held on the run to that fence before coming down and I suspect that he is some way short of Gold Cup class and I imagine he will step back into handicap company for his next run. The winner of that race was Many Clouds who made all under Leighton Aspell and despite running in the Gold Cup in the past, I suspect that his campaign is likely to be geared towards regaining his Grand National crown.
Ryanair
As well as Un De Sceaux and Ar Mad being trimmed for this race following the Tingle Creek, Josses Hill also threw his hat into the ring with a fine front-running display in the Peterborough Chase at Huntingdon on Sunday. It is fair to say that Nicky Henderson’s gelding has had his fair share of problems jumping the larger obstacles but despite jumping a couple a little big, he jumped well on the whole under Noel Fehily. His trainer mentioned afterwards that he thinks he probably prefers going right-handed and that good ground is definitely important to him showcasing his best. He was eighth in the Ryanair this year but if he can hold his jumping together, he has the class to finish a good deal closer this time around.
Novice Hurdlers
Supreme
Willie Mullins’ Airlie Beach was introduced at 14/1 for the Supreme following her surprise victory in the Royal Bond Novice Hurdle at Fairyhouse on Sunday. The six-year-old is now unbeaten in seven starts under rules and she made just about all under Ruby Walsh to win with six and a half lengths to spare. There is no doubt her cause was aided by the fall of the favourite Peace News at the second last but she quickened away impressively and we have yet to see the limit of her abilities. Clearly there are plenty of options for her including the Mares Novice Hurdle but this is a strong piece of form.
As for Peace News, Henry De Bromhead’s four-year-old hadn’t been asked for an effort when coming down and he could be worth sticking with if he sharpens up his jumping. He remained unchanged in the Supreme market at around 14/1 with most firms following this mishap.
One of the more interesting moves in this market this week was the one for Crack Mome, a Graham Wylie-owned four-year-old in the care of Willie Mullins. He won his only start in a French bumper and has a couple of upcoming entries at Clonmel on Thursday and Navan on Saturday so he could be worth keeping an eye on considering he is already as short as 14/1 for this race.
Neptune
Last week’s Grade 2 Novice Hurdle at Sandown on Friday may have thrown up a few Neptune clues with Messire Des Obeaux defying a penalty to get the better of last season’s Champion Bumper winner Ballyandy. It is fair to say that Alan King’s four-year-old looked booked for third between the final two flights but once the stamina came into play up the Sandown hill, he responded gamely to get his head in front and win by half a length. Daryl Jacob commented afterwards that he was a real galloper and that he could next head to the Challow Hurdle at Newbury. The bookmakers weren’t terribly moved as he remains as big as 25/1 for the Neptune and the Albert Bartlett.
As for the runner-up, he had looked as though he would appreciate the step up in trip and whilst he may have done, despite the conditions of the race favouring him, he was unable to get his head in front. He was pushed out to a general 20/1 for the Neptune and for the time being, it seems Nigel Twiston-Davies will have to go back to the drawing board.
The winner could be joined in the Challow Hurdle by Geordie Des Champs defied a double penalty to win at Chepstow on Saturday. Rebecca Curtis’ five-year-old seems to be coming along nicely at present and looks to have earned a step up in class, which should tell us more about his likely Spring targets.
Triumph
Joseph O’Brien continues to have a stranglehold on the Triumph Hurdle market and the current ante-post favourite Landofhopeandglory made it three from three over obstacles when winning the Grade 3 Bar One Racing Juvenile Hurdle at Fairyhouse on Sunday. It looked a strong field beforehand with Gordon Elliott saddling the impressive Down Royal winner Mega Fortune and the Mullins yard was represented by French hurdles winner Bapaume. It was these three who fought out the finish with the favourite responding generously to pressure once Barry Geraghty got stuck in after the last. He seems to be improving with each run over hurdles and should now head for the Grade 1 at Leopardstown over Christmas. He is a general 7/1 shot for the Triumph at this stage but it is worth bearing in mind that we have yet to see his stablemates Housesofparliament and Sword Fighter (who were both rated higher on the flat) run over hurdles.
On this side of the Irish Sea, Defi Du Seuil looks the one with most potential at this stage of the season and he could get another chance to showcase his talents at Cheltenham this weekend. He could face a couple of winners in the shape of Cliffs Of Dover and Domperignon Du Lys which should tell us more about the ability he possesses.
We might also gain some clues up at Doncaster as they host the Grade 2 Summit Juvenile Hurdle which was won by Peace And Co a couple of years ago. Alan King has a couple of entries both here and at Cheltenham and it will be interesting to see which way he decides to go with his representatives.
The last performance to mention here was that of Evening Hush who won for the second time over hurdles for Evan Williams at Aintree on Saturday. Having made all at Exeter on her hurdling debut, she repeated the trick here, setting an even pace in front and her rivals looked to be struggling from some way out. Whether she goes down the Triumph route is unclear at this stage but she is clearly talented and she also has the option of the Mares’ Novice Hurdle at the Festival.
Novice Chasers
Arkle
We got chance to see the Arkle favourite in action on Saturday as Altior took on three rivals in the Henry VIII Novices’ Chase at Sandown. Having completed what was effectively a schooling session at Kempton a couple of weeks ago, this was much more of a test for Nicky Henderson’s six-year-old and he made a couple of jumping errors early on before warming to the task. Noel Fehily was keen to keep hold of him and having tracked Charbel going to the last, he swept clear under hands and heels to win by six lengths. That acceleration from the back of the last showed just how talented a performer he is and if he does some work on his jumping, he looks the one they have to beat at the Festival.
I was also impressed with the run of Charbel in second and his trainer confirmed afterwards that they would look to step him up in trip going forward. He jumps well and could reappear in the Dipper Novices’ Chase at Cheltenham on New Year’s Day.
JLT
A couple of potential JLT horses emerged in the last week including Its’afreebee who bounced back from a below-par run at Cheltenham to win at Wetherby on Saturday. The fitting of a tongue-tie for the first time seemed to make all the difference and the six-year-old was eased down close home to win impressively by seven lengths. In behind him was the 2015 World Hurdle winner Cole Harden who was returning from an absence but he was still a shade disappointing. Much like his stablemate One Track Mind a week before he jumped very big and never really got into a rhythm over his fences. A step up to 3m should show him in a better light but he has plenty to prove over the larger obstacles as it stands.
Another who threw his hat into the ring was Alan Fleming’s Tully East who made a winning debut over fences at Thurles on Thursday. Denis O’Regan was reported to be very impressed with the six-year-old who could now step into Grade 1 company for his next assignment. He was fourth in the Martin Pipe at last year’s Festival and this gelding promises to be a better chaser than he was a hurdler.
It is also worth noting that Barry Geraghty doesn’t often head to Catterick on a Wednesday but he was there last week to partner Laissez Dire on his chasing debut. The four-year-old was a dual winner over hurdles in France and having accounted for the useful Work In Progress on the bridle, he looks to have a bright future ahead of him.
RSA
The Grade 1 Drinmore Novice Chase may be run over 2m4f but it often throws up plenty of clues for the RSA and the winner Coney Island looks sure to appreciate the step up to 3m in the future. Eddie Harty’s five-year-old jumped well in the hands of Mark Walsh and he found plenty once challenged after the last. This may have been a small surprise on the day but there didn’t seem to be any fluke about this and he could bid to follow up at Leopardstown over Christmas.
Back in second was Tony Martin’s Anibale Fly who seemed to run his race but just couldn’t pick up as well as the winner in the closing stages. He might just have been outstayed by the winner and could stick to this intermediate trip for the time being. Of the rest, Alpha Des Obeaux remains popular towards the head of the market for the RSA having attempted to make all here under Mark Enright. He is another who should appreciate a more searching test of stamina for his next assignment.
Martello Tower also threw his hat into the mix by getting off the mark at the second attempt on Saturday at Fairyhouse. The eight-year-old found 2m1f on the sharp side at Navan a few weeks ago but the 2m5f trip was much more suitable on this occasion and she showed a fine attitude to hold off the pursuing A Genie In A Bottle. This former Albert Bartlett winner should enjoy going back over three miles at some stage and he is the sort who tends to just do enough.
In Britain, Aux Ptits Soins made no mistake at Kelso on Sunday when getting off the mark at the second time of asking. He looked in need of the run at Exeter last month following a long absence but he stripped much fitter for this outing and had to dig deep to hold off the useful Westren Warrior close home. To be honest I was expecting a little more from him here but it is still early days and he should improve with experience.
The final one to mention Champers On Ice made a winning start to his chasing career at Uttoxeter today, getting the better of Kim Bailey’s Dueling Banjos. He seemed inclined to jump slightly to his left throughout the race and despite the odd mistake late on, he never really looked like getting beat. We are likely to learn more as the season goes on and he is stepped up in grade but this was an encouraging start to life over fences.
Bets
CHARBEL (JLT Novices’ Chase) – 0.5pt e/w @ 33/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook)
I briefly mentioned above that I had been impressed with the run of Charbel on Saturday behind Altior with Kim Bailey’s five-year-old having jumped well for most of the way before succumbing to Altior’s potent turn of foot. In the aftermath, his trainer has confirmed that the intention is to go up in trip with him and he even mentioned that his most likely target at the Festival would be the JLT, although he would also get an entry in the Arkle.
I was therefore surprised to see that a couple of bookmakers still have him as big as 33/1 for that race, especially when you consider that Top Notch and Le Prezien (who he has already beaten over fences) are around half that price. Charbel has some form around Cheltenham having finished fifth in the Supreme and he may have finished closer but for a mistake at the final hurdle. The Henry VIII Novices’ Chase often serves as a good guide to the JLT with Taquin Du Seuil having been placed in this prior to winning the JLT and Bristol De Mai was placed in both races last year. I am aware that Charbel will need to continue to improve to win a race of this nature but he has already shown signs that he will be a better chaser than a hurdler and I think he is worth a small each-way bet at 33/1.
Ante-Post Portfolio
JEZKI (World Hurdle) – 1pt e/w @ 14/1 (bet365, Betfred)
CHARBEL (JLT Novices’ Chase) – 0.5pt e/w @ 33/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook -
Last year I decided to do a Ante-post diary which resulted in a 19 points profit overall thanks to victories for Thistlecrack (3/1), Don Cossack (7/1), On The Fringe (5/2) and Ballyandy (12/1) as well as healthy each-way returns on the likes of My Tent Or Yours (20/1), Buveur D’Air (12/1), Yanworth (9/1) and Bloody Mary (14/1).
For those of you who may be new to my Ante-post Diary, I will run through the general format from week to week. In each update I plan to go through the four Championship races (Champion Hurdle, Champion Chase, World Hurdle & Cheltenham Gold Cup) initially before discussing the novice divisions over hurdles and fences. Obviously as we get closer to the Festival the handicaps will also be discussed in depth as well as some of the other shoulder races and bets will be recommended where necessaryPART 1
Champion Hurdle
Annie Power heads most lists for the Champion Hurdle but she missed her first possible engagement of the season in the Morgiana Hurdle having reported to have worked badly in the week leading up to Punchestown. There is no long term concern about the mare and with the Mullins bandwagon yet to get fully rolling it shouldn’t be too long before she is out.
Her stablemate Faugheen, with whom she also shares favouritism for the Day one showpiece missed the same race with a bruised foot. He has not been seen on the racecourse since running away with Irish Champion Hurdle last January and this slight niggle has delayed his comeback further.
Despite those notable absences, Mullins was able to record a sixth successive victory in the race courtesy of Nichols Canyon who made just about all to win by twelve lengths under Ruby Walsh. The visibility was poor at Punchestown so it is hard to know just how good he was but he was well on top as he appeared out of the gloom over the final hurdle. He is best priced 25/1 for the Champion Hurdle, in which he finished third last year, although it was indicated afterwards that he would be going up in trip which suggests the World Hurdle is more likely to be on his agenda than the Champion.
In fact the current Champion Hurdle market has a number of horses on the list who are unlikely to take their chances with the likes of Yorkhill, Altior, Buveur D’Air and Min all seemingly likely to head over the larger obstacles this winter. That means that at present we have two horses at around 5/2 and the rest are 16/1 bar, which might suggest that there is an each-way bet to be had but there isn’t anything that jumps out at present.
Ch’Tibello got the better of Melodic Rendezvous and My Tent Or Yours in the Betfair Price Rush Hurdle a couple of weeks ago but for all Dan Skelton’s five-year-old improving, I find it hard to see him ending up as Champion Hurdle class by the end of the season. The disappointment of the race was My Tent Or Yours who travelled well for much of the way but just couldn’t pick up in the heavy ground and Noel Fehily wasn’t overly hard on him. He should be better on a sounder surface in something like the Christmas Hurdle but he will be ten come March and despite his fine effort last season, you would have to think his best days are behind him.
The Fighting Fifth last weekend also failed to throw up any Champion Hurdle clues as Irving got the better of Apple’s Jade in a tight finish. We know enough about Irving to know he isn’t a real top drawer performer and the runner-up will be stepping up in trip for her next assignment. It is worth mentioning that Petit Mouchoir was going as well as anything when coming down three out and despite that fall he could be the one to take out of the race.
The disappointment of the race was Sceau Royal who came here on the back of smooth successes at Cheltenham and Wincanton but he seemed to struggle on this slower surface. After starting the season well last year his form tailed off and it might be that he is one who runs best fresh. Regardless of the reason for his below-par display, this run confirmed if it weren’t already apparent that he is some way short of Champion Hurdle class.
Champion Chase
Willie Mullins has the market leader for another of the championship races here as Douvan who won all six of his starts as a novice last season, is currently best-priced 8/11 to be the Champion Chaser come March. If you had to ask me now what would win the Champion Chase, clearly this chap would be top of the list and despite the six-year-old holding entries in the John Durkan over 2m4f and the King George over 3m, all the indications are that the Queen Mother Champion Chase will be his primary target come the Spring. He was close to faultless last season and personally I think he would have an excellent chance in the Champion Hurdle were something to happen to either of his stablemates. At this stage it looks his to lose but there is plenty of water to go under the bridge before March so there is no appeal in 8/11.
In terms of opposition, his closest market rival at this stage is Fox Norton who is two from two this term, having added the Shloer Chase to his handicap success at Cheltenham last month. He was purchased by Ann & Alan Potts after his reappearance win and they chose to move the horse from the yard of Neil Mulholland to Colin Tizzard. The six-year-old was a ready winner of that Grade 2 contest but personally I think 7/1 is plenty short enough at this stage. I don’t think there is any doubt that he has improved over the summer but when you consider he was beaten 11 lengths by Douvan in the Arkle and 32 lengths by Douvan at Aintree, he looks to have plenty more improving to do yet. He also sustained a cut in his latest victory which means he misses this weekend’s Tingle Creek but all being well he should be back for a Spring campaign.
It could be that Willie Mullins has two of the biggest “dangers” to Douvan in the shape of Un De Sceaux and Champagne Fever. The former had his limitations exposed in the Champion Chase back in March as he just couldn’t quicken with Sprinter Sacre on a sounder surface, although he did run on in the closing stages. He won over 2m5f at Auteuil in May and he looks likely to be stepped up in trip this term. Champagne Fever didn’t make it to the track last term but despite being keen and fresh on his reappearance, he managed to get his head in front, landing a Listed Chase at Thurles just last week. That was over 2m6f but afterwards his trainer raised the possibility of him going back in trip and although he suggested that 2m in a Grade 1 might be asking a lot, he didn’t rule it out.
On this side of the Irish Sea, it could be that Gary Moore holds all of the cards and he will have been delighted to see Sire De Grugy get back to winning ways at Ascot a couple of weeks ago. Jamie Moore was frank in his assessment of the ten-year-old’s chances in Grade 1 company afterwards suggesting that he didn’t have much chance of beating Douvan and it is hard to see him making an impact on the Champion Chase.
Moore’s best chance could be Ar Mad who improved out of all proportion last term winning his last four starts over fences including the Grade 1 Henry VIII Novices’ Chase at Sandown in December. He suffered a condylar fracture in the lead up to the Festival last term which saw him miss the rest of the campaign and we should learn more about his wellbeing this weekend. He has entries in both the Tingle Creek and the Peterborough Chase and we should see where we stand with him. The one question we have yet to answer is whether he is as good left-handed but I suspect we might not know that until March.
The last of Moore’s potential Champion Chasers is Traffic Fluide although in a recent blog, Moore suggested that the six-year-old would not be seen until February at the earliest.
World Hurdle
With last year’s runaway World Hurdle winner Thistlecrack now bound for a career over fences, it seems the only chance of him running in this race is if something went awry on his next two outings. If this is the case then it gives the race an open look, especially when you consider that Faugheen currently heads most markets. Whilst it is true that the eight-year-old won a novice hurdle over three miles in his younger days, in the last two years over two miles, he has proved himself arguably as one of the best Champion hurdlers ever. Of course I realise that connections also have Annie Power but I think throwing Faugheen in here would be the wrong option, for all I think he would probably win.
As always there are last season’s novices who will be bidding to make an impact in open company and Unowhatimeanharry put down a sizeable marker when winning the Long Distance Hurdle at Newbury last Friday. The eight-year-old won with plenty in hand on the day under Barry Geraghty and given his form at Cheltenham as a novice it is easy to see why this race is likely to be high on his list of targets. Back in second was Nigel Twiston-Davies’ Ballyoptic who didn’t jump as well as he can, perhaps an impact of his fall at Wetherby last month. At this stage he looks to have plenty to find if he is to become a World Hurdle contender.
Alan King’s Yanworth is high on many lists and his performance in the Coral Hurdle this month suggested that he was more of a World Hurdle horse than a Champion Hurdle horse. He showed a good attitude to wear down the game Lil Rockerfeller and win with three-quarters of a length to spare. On the face of it, the performance was slightly underwhelming but I think he might just have needed the race more than connections thought and he still had enough to get the job done. I suspect that stepping up to three miles will probably bring about further improvement but I still think he is short enough at around 8/1.
If we have an early contender for a novice chaser going back over hurdles it could be One Track Mind who made a mistake at the first on his chasing debut last week and it didn’t get much better after that. The Grade 1 winning hurdler eventually completed but ran well below expectations and whilst connections are keen to stick down the chasing route for the time being, he could be one worth watching if switched back to the smaller obstacles come the Spring.
I will actually be putting a bet up in the World Hurdle this week but you will have to wait a little longer to find out who it is.
Gold Cup
There is only one place to start with the Gold Cup as the major seismic disturbance in the Gold Cup market was the loss of Vautour earlier this month. A brilliant horse both over hurdles and fences, he turned in some devastating displays at Cheltenham, most notably in the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle and the JLT Novices’ Chase. Much was made of his Cheltenham target last Spring and a poor piece of work meant he went down the Ryanair route rather than Gold Cup. Personally, I found it hard to see him lasting the 3m2f of a Gold Cup trip but I suppose we will never know.
Looking ahead to March, it is something of a strange market at present as we find ourselves with a novice who has only raced over fences three times heading the field. Of course the novice that I am referring to is Thistlecrack who carried all before him over hurdles last year and has been sent over fences this year with the target of becoming the second novice since Captain Christy in 1974 to win the race as a novice. Now, I should start by saying that you would be hard-pushed to find a bigger supporter of this horse than me as I have had him in my Jumpers to Follow list since he won at Wincanton in early 2015, however I think his price is quite absurd at present. His jumping was much better at Newbury on Saturday particularly at the open ditches, which had caused his supporters some alarm at Cheltenham on his second start but he did most of that in second or third gear. The test will come when he has to travel in fourth or fifth gear and then we will see just how his jumping holds up, but in reality we probably aren’t going to see that scenario until the Festival (unless connections decide to take in the King George over Christmas). With all of those questions still to answer 7/2 is too short and I think it means that there are others in the market who could be too big.
Clearly his stablemate Cue Card looks to have plenty going in his favour and in the opinions of many, he would have won in March had he stood up. Personally I don’t subscribe to that view but he is a high-class chaser as we saw when bouncing back from a below-par return to land the Betfair Chase a couple of weeks ago. The way he cruised clear of some smart rivals including the returning Coneygree suggested he retains all of his ability at the age of ten and that he will once again be a force come March. He will be eleven by the time Cheltenham comes around though and surely there are more appealing options.
As for the returning Coneygree, I thought he ran well for a long way, jumping boldly under Richard Johnson but he just got understandably tired in the closing stages. His trainer admitted afterwards that he probably had him a bit short and the heavy ground will have only exaggerated the tiredness. With that run under his belt, how he fares in either the King George or the Lexus over Christmas is likely to show us how much ability he retains.
Last weekend also threw up a third potential Gold Cup runner for the Tizzard team as Native River showed some fine qualities to win the Hennessy at Newbury. He gallops and stays very well which suggests that he would be suited by the gruelling test of a Gold Cup but I’m not sure he has the requisite class to actually win the race.
As for last year’s winner Don Cossack, reports on his wellbeing were quite bleak through the summer but just last weekend his trainer indicated that the nine-year-old was back cantering. He suggested that a return was not imminent and that his likely schedule was to have one run around February before heading straight to Cheltenham. He is as big as 12/1 for the race which seems big at the minute but there isn’t much sense in backing him at the moment.
I think we will just let time tick by for a few weeks on the Gold Cup because it is still early days (especially without NRNB) for us to be making a selection with so many factors yet to become clear.
Novice Hurdlers
Novices over both sets of obstacles can be notoriously hard to pin down to races because as well as ability, targets are often also dictated by what else the yard has in the race or whether there looks to be a standout performer in the race. With that in mind, I don’t want to get too bogged down in which races horses are likely to target but I have split them up in the copy according to which races they look likely to end up in at present.
Supreme
Our first clues in the Supreme market came as early as September as Moon Racer and Ballyandy lit up a fixture at Perth by taking each other on in a novice hurdle. Racing close together throughout, it was David Pipe’s seven-year-old who found a little extra after the last to win by three-quarters of a length.
The pair renewed acquaintances about six weeks later at Cheltenham’s Open Meeting and with Nigel Twiston-Davies’ horse getting a 4lb pull in the weights, he was fancied to reverse the placings with that rival. However, that proved not to the case as, in a steadily run affair, Moon Racer quickened up the Cheltenham hill to win readily and stake his claim as a Supreme horse. He now finds himself as short as 6/1 for the Supreme and having only been beaten once to date, it is hard to look past him. As for Ballyandy, I suspect he will end up in the Neptune and personally I think he would have a leading chance if lining up.
Throughout the summer there are often horses who are talked about with the following year’s Cheltenham in mind and one such horse this time around was Senewalk who found himself as 8/1 favourite for the Supreme without having run in Britain or Ireland. However, he made his debut at Punchestown just over a week ago and having looked ok for most of the race, he faded tamely after the third last and was well beaten. His trainer Willie Mullins seemed to indicate afterwards that he felt the horse might have a wind problem but may give him the rest of the campaign off and bring him back as a novice next year.
A similar talking horse has been Jenkins who was a wide-margin winner of a Newbury bumper in April before finishing a close second at Punchestown later that month. Nicky Henderson’s four-year-old was well touted ahead of his hurdling debut last week at Newbury and despite being a little untidy with his jumping, he really picked up in the closing stages to win impressively under Barry Geraghty. There is still plenty for him to work on as he showed plenty of inexperience but he couldn’t be in better hands and it is no surprise to see him high up on many ante-post lists.
A couple of other Henderson inmate who made a winning start to his seasons was Lough Derg Spirit. The four-year-old won a novice hurdle at Kempton at the beginning of last week, jumping accurately before coasting clear between the final two flights under Jeremiah McGrath. He was very professional and having been bought for £190,000 in May, he looks to have a bright future ahead of him. Having come from the Irish pointing field it is no surprise that he is more forward in his development but he could end up in the Neptune come the end of the season.
Neptune
Looking at the intermediate race in the novice hurdling division, it was hard not to be impressed with Robin Roe, who made a winning debut over hurdles at Aintree in October. The winning pointer was successful on his only bumper start last term and there was a lot to like about the way he won at Aintree. He really powered clear of his rivals after the last and was eased down close home to win with twelve lengths to spare at the line. He could now head to the Challow Hurdle over Christmas, where we are likely to learn more about where he stands with the other leading novices.
Gordon Elliott’s Death Duty also threw his hat into the ring with an impressive victory in the Grade 3 Monksfield Novices’ Hurdle, his second victory over hurdles to date. The five-year-old travelled strongly to the second last, before stretching clear of his rivals and was only pushed out to the line to win by an extended seven lengths. He had some pretty smart bumper form and looks to have either the Neptune or Albert Bartlett as suitable targets come the Spring.
His target could be determined by where his stablemate Blow By Blow is steered, as the five-year-old now with Gordon Elliott looks likely to play a major role wherever he turns up in March. He is the only horse to have beaten Moon Racer in public and having moved to the Elliott yard from Willie Mullins over the summer, his reappearance is eagerly anticipated. In a recent stable tour his new trainer suggested that he probably wanted a trip but at this stage plans looks pretty fluid.
Albert Bartlett
As well as Death Duty, Gigginstown look to have another useful staying novice in the shape of Blood Crazed Tiger who is so far three from three over hurdles. The five-year-old also seems to have relished the step up to three miles on his last two starts including when winning in Listed company earlier this month. There is no doubt that he will need to improve on the form he has shown so far to be fancied in a race like this but he finds plenty for pressure and in a race where attrition is often the order of the day.
It is a long way off but one horse who I thought might improve for a step up in trip is Elegant Escape who made it two from two over hurdles when winning at Ascot a couple of weeks ago. He looked to be losing the argument on more than one occasion in the 2m 5f contest but rallied gamely to get the better of Laser Light and in the end, looked to outstay his rival. He was only beaten narrowly in a point-to-point in April and it would be no surprise if 3m became his trip before the end of the season.
Triumph
It is too early to be even considering a bet in the Triumph as we most likely haven’t heard of the leading contenders just yet. Having said that I think it is worth highlighting a couple of performances which have taken the eye in the early part of the season.
Joseph O’Brien played a big part in Ivanovich Gorbatov winning in March and he looks to have a strong team of juveniles to go to war with this year now that the license is in his own name. He has acquired a number of cast-offs from Coolmore and one such horse Landofhopeandglory looks to have a bright future having won both of his starts over hurdles to date. It is worth noting that on both occasions his main rivals have been from his own stable but he was rated 102 on the flat and on what we have seen so far, he looks to have plenty of potential over obstacles.
The other one to mention is Philip Hobbs’ Defi Du Seuil who won with his head in his chest at Cheltenham’s Open Meeting. He cruised round under Barry Geraghty and quickened up well when squeezed to win with plenty in hand. I’m not sure the form of those in behind is up to much but he was much better than them on the day and he seems to enjoy a bit of cut in the ground.
Novice Chasers
Arkle
I mentioned last year when advising Vaniteux for the Arkle how much Nicky Henderson’s runners are to be respected and although that particular horse could not deliver the goods, he looks to have the one to beat this year in the shape of Altior. Last season’s Supreme winner looked a chaser all over last year in terms of his size and he made no mistake at Kempton on his chasing bow earlier this month. In truth it turned into more of a schooling session than a race with his only rival unable to go the gallop but Noel Fehily was suitably impressed with the ante-post favourite. I suspect that we will get a better idea of his chasing prowess this weekend as he looks set to take in the Henry VII Novices’ Chase at Sandown in which he is likely to take on some higher class rivals. Sandown is notoriously tricky particularly over two miles as the test is so relentless and this should be a good test of his metal.
His nearest market rival at this stage is Min who chased him home in the Supreme in March and looks set to renew acquaintances at some stage this term. He made his chasing debut at Navan at the weekend and he was just about foot perfect in a field of seventeen. Ruby Walsh made sure he was towards the head of affairs throughout so the five-year-old had a clear sight of his fences and he jumped well. He went up a couple of gears between the final two fences and having popped the last, he stretched clear to win well at the line. He clearly has a bit to find with Altior on their Supreme form but Rich Ricci mentioned that they had ironed out some problems with Min and hoped they could close the gap if they met again.
This is unlikely to be a two horse division however as Identity Thief has also gone down the chasing route and already has a Grade 2 success to his name. He won the Fighting Fifth last term before finishing sixth in the Champion Hurdle in March and if he can transfer that form to fences, he wouldn’t have much to find with the likes of Altior and Min.
It has been a while since the north had a horse as exciting as Cloudy Dream and at this stage he looks to be capable of going to the very top over fences. He is two from two over the larger obstacles and his latest victory against more experienced rivals suggested that he was ready for a step up in grade. The ground would have been soft enough for him on that occasion but he handled it well and he looks likely to head to the Wayward Lad at Kempton over Christmas for his next start.
One final horse to mention is Charbel who beat a couple of useful performers in the shape of Top Notch and Le Prezien on his chasing debut in October and they have gone on to boost the form since. Kim Bailey’s five-year-old looked a natural over the bigger obstacles and I am therefore surprised he is as big as 33/1 for this race and the JLT, especially when you consider that for the Arkle, Top Notch is as short as 14/1 and Le Prezien 16/1.
JLT
The four-year-old Clan Des Obeaux laid down a pretty good marker when running away with a Grade 2 contest at Newbury last Friday. Having made the odd mistake on his chasing debut at Chepstow, he seemed to benefit for that experience as he jumped much better last week. He never really came off the bridle as he sauntered clear on the run-in. There must be more to come from him with that being only his sixth start under rules and whilst he could make up into an RSA horse, I suspect that this will be his race come March.
He could be joined in that race by Politologue who made an impressive winning debut over fences, beating the useful Vintage Clouds by ten lengths under Harry Cobden. The five-year-old saw the 2m5f trip out very strongly which suggests stamina is his forte and he looks likely to be a better chaser than hurdler. With March in mind it is worth noting that his only below-par display last year came in the Coral Cup on quicker ground and he does seem to be better with cut in the ground.
RSA
With Barters Hill out for the season, we have already lost one potential star from this division but there are plenty waiting in the wings including Alpha Des Obeaux, who may have failed to perform on his chasing debut at the beginning of October but he has wasted no time in recording two victories over fences. The latest of those came in Grade 3 company over 2m4f where he ran on strongly late on and I think he will only improve again once stepped up to 3m.
As we have discussed already, Nicky Henderson has a wealth of talent at his disposal in most areas and this is no different. Different Gravey hasn’t had too much racing to date but he looked a natural over the larger obstacles when winning at Ascot a couple of weeks ago. He did make a slight error at the second last which can be forgiven but once David Bass shook him up he really started to motor and he pinged the last. A winning pointer over 3m, he has only tried 3m once under rules at Aintree but I wouldn’t be concerned about him trying it again come the spring.
At this very early stage, one who stands out at a big price for the RSA is Martello Tower who won the Albert Bartlett at the Festival in 2015. His connections decided to stick down the hurdling route last term without success but there was plenty to like about his chasing debut at Navan for all he was beaten a couple of weeks ago. That run came over 2m1f which would have been much too short for him but he ran on strongly in the closing stages. He looks likely to step up in trip this weekend which should reveal more but he looks a lively outsider at this early stage of the season.
Bets
JEZKI (World Hurdle) – 1pt e/w @ 14/1 (bet365, Betfred)
As I discussed earlier re the World Hurdle there are a number of horses towards the head of the betting who are at this stage unlikely to line up in this race. That means that there are some horses who are bigger prices than they should be and at this stage I think Jezki is a big price at 14/1.
He missed all of last season having been found to have heat in his foreleg but the indications are that all is well with the eight-year-old and he is set to return to action at Leopardstown over Christmas.
It is worth bearing in mind that he was 6/1 joint favourite for the World Hurdle before being ruled out last year, having improved a good deal for stepping in trip when winning the Aintree Hurdle over 2m4f and the World Series Hurdle over 3m at Punchestown. He has always been a high-class performer having won eight Grade 1s including a Champion Hurdle and if he returns with the same ability he left with, he could take all the beating in this race.
Clearly that isn’t a given but he likes Cheltenham, stays three miles and in my opinion he should be about 8/1 rather than 14/1 so I think he is a good horse to start my ante-post diary with for this year -
1.15 Exeter – The Thurlestone Hotel Handicap Hurdle RaceFor a Class 3 handicap, this looks a pretty above average contest and one in which the big boys look set to dominate.David Pipe’s Sadler’s Gold has been off the track since landing a maiden hurdle in April 2015 and whilst that wasn’t particularly the strongest of races, he coasted clear in the manner of a good horse. He’s clearly had his problems since though and may be best watched on his first run back from such a long layoff.Another coming back from a break is top weight Far West who has an altogether much more convincing profile. The 2013 Triumph Hurdle runner-up showed some fair form in novice chases back in the 2014/15 season and lines up here off an 8lb lower mark than when last seen over hurdles, finishing down the field in the 2014 Coral Cup. He can be a class act on his day but a watching brief may be the best port of call on this his first run back from a serious leg injury.Therefore, preference is for his unexposed stablemate CAPELAND who looks to be the first string on jockey bookings with Nick Scholfield in the plate. The French import struck on his first run for current connections exactly a year ago in a Listed bumper at Cheltenham on New Year’s Day and having been put away for the rest of the campaign returned with a solid effort to finish third in a hot early season novice at Chepstow, form which has been franked with the winner Geordie des Champs going in twice since and the sixth-placed Call To Order scoring in a decent Cheltenham at the International Meeting. His most recent effort wasn’t perhaps as impressive as one would have hoped but a muddling pace turned it into a bit of a sprint in the home straight and he showed a decent attitude to get his head in front despite his lack of experience. That run however, has meant that an opening mark of 122 looks very appealing and although he still looks to be learning with every outing, he should progress a fair way past that in time and this looks a good opportunity in a race where many have questions to answer.Graeme McPherson’s Kayf Blanco arguably has the strongest recent form in the book having finished a close-up third behind subsequent Wessex Youth Trust (formerly known as the Ladbroke) Hurdle 1-2 Brain Power and Consul de Thaix in a Listed handicap hurdle at Sandown in early December. In truth he didn’t really get involved with the leading pair but it was still a more than respectable effort and he has somewhat surprisingly been eased 1lb by the assessor. He has been putting in some decent efforts in top handicap hurdles in the last year or so but does have to prove his effectiveness over this trip having shown all his best form over at least a furlong shorter.Of the remainder, Hello George could well be on a handy mark if recapturing the form he showed when staying on strongly to land an Intermediate Hurdle at Kelso 15 months ago while Space Oddity and Lord Of The Island are entitled to be there or thereabouts but likely don’t have enough in their respective lockers to trouble the principals.Advice
CAPELAND – 1pt win
1.25 Cheltenham – BetBright Dipper Novices’ Chase (Grade 2)
A small but select field for this year’s Dipper and after her extremely impressive two runs over fences this season, Henry Daly’s Briery Belle needs to be respected in receipt of weight from all but one of her rivals. She took apart the field at Carlisle on good ground, defeating the useful Vintage Clouds by eight lengths and then comfortably disposed of Desert Queen in a Listed Mares’ Chase at Warwick a month later. This trip looks to suit her very well, but she certainly looks to have the stamina for further and the switch to fences has clearly improved the seven-year-old mare plenty. This will be the toughest assignment she’s ever faced, but on the fashion of her wins this season, she could certainly play a part here.Nicky Henderson has two in this, a race he won in 2014 with the ill-fated Oscar Whisky, and representing the same connections this time around is Whisper, who was an impressive winner on his seasonal debut over C&D. Jumping well throughout, the 167-rated staying hurdler looked back to himself after a disappointing campaign last season and has the potential to rate highly over the larger obstacles. However, the bare form of that last run is nothing special – he had 140-rated handicappers behind him in the shape of Baron Alco (from whom he received 5lb) and Sizing Tennessee, while stablemate Different Gravey didn’t jump or travel with any fluency at all, so quite what this eight-year-old achieved there is questionable. He could well be much better than that, but he will have to be to be winning a race like this.O O Seven was a huge disappointment last time out at Doncaster, but the third place over three miles of the Grade 2 December Novices’ Chase could well be a very good thing to happen to the horse. It means he returns to this intermediate trip, over which he looked so good back in November as he ran away with a Novices’ Chase over C&D. He clearly acts on the track and on good ground and on a line through that run where he defeated Sizing Tennessee by ten lengths, despite drifting severely right handed while alone up the run-in, he should be very closely matched with his stablemate, Whisper. But this horse is only six and I was hugely impressed by that Cheltenham win, so I think he can improve, bounce back here and run extremely well – it will take a good one to beat him if he’s on song and he could be one to watch for the JLT come March.But it just so happens that we might have something a little bit special in the race in the shape of Paul Nicholls’ four-year-old, CLAN DES OBEAUX. After his win last time out at Newbury in the grade 2 Berkshire Novices’ Chase, Sean Bowen said that he was the best horse he’d ever sat on and the visual style of the ten-length defeat of Virgilio (who finished second in the Henry VIII Novices’ Chase on Boxing Day) backs that up. It was a wildly impressive effort as the Kapgarde gelding hacked up on the bridle and, in receipt of weight from the Henderson pair here, he has every chance of following that up. The drop of rain forecast for Sunday morning will undoubtedly be a help to him and the stiff track should also play to his strengths as he does look a horse that will appreciate three miles in time. All in all, he’s a young chaser who could well rate above 160 as a four-year-old, so needs the utmost respect in this and if he continues to progress at the same rate over fences as he has so far, he could be a very special horse for the future too.
Advice
CLAN DES OBEAUX 2pts win
2.35 Cheltenham – The Betbright Casino Handicap Hurdle Race.
A fairly tricky affair to try and decipher with wily veterans, up-and coming novices and a few chasers in the line-up to boot.Cogry falls well and truly into the latter category having proven himself a solid handicapper over the larger obstacles last campaign. His record has been blemished though this season as he has failed to complete on all four starts and reverts to timber for the first time since April 2014. Consequently, his hurdles mark of 128 is 6lb below his chasing mark which would give him every chance here if his recent blunders haven’t dented his confidence.Top weight Whataknight has enjoyed a pair of fairly successful efforts in beginners’ chases in the autumn so it is a bit of a surprise to see him revert to the smaller obstacles here. The forecast good ground would be firmly in his favour here and if he reproduces the effort that saw him beat the now very progressive chaser Minella Daddy at Haydock in May, he would have a big chance to defy a 6lb rise in the weights. Capable amateur Mikey Legg takes a valuable 5lb off his back as well which can only aid his chances.Zeroeshadesofgrey is another to have been plying his trade over the larger obstacles of late, defeating subsequent Grade 1 Kauto Star Novices’ Chase winner Royal Vacation at Wetherby before being turned over when long odds on in a similar contest a month later. Given he finished only a couple of lengths behind subsequent Wessex Youth Trust (formerly known as the Ladbroke) Hurdle winner Brain Power off 2lb higher last March, he would look to have every chance off 140 even though he remains 2lb above his last winning mark. This, however, is the second time that a chasing career has been put on hold and I just have a nagging doubt that he may just be too one-paced to score in a race of this nature.Therefore, the selection is the unexposed seven-year-old at the foot of the field CALL TO ORDER. Having shown a fair bit in a pair of bumpers and a novice hurdle in 2015, he proved fairly disappointing in his first three spins over hurdles this season before running out a resounding winner over course and distance in December. The step up to three miles and the addition of cheekpieces seemed to work the oracle for him even if he showed a little bit of reluctance to go on once hitting the front. That was probably as strong a contest as this so a 7lb rise shouldn’t prove too troublesome with the added experience under his belt and the headgear retained. It’s worth remembering as well that Jonjo O’Neill had his worst spell as a trainer in the early part of the season when his yard were simply not firing on all cylinders and although he hasn’t yet started to hit the heights expected of Jackdaws Castle, the winners have started to flow once more.Given that Paul Nicholls won this with a certain six-year-old that some of you may recall named Big Buck’s back in 2009, any horse that Ditcheat sends here has to be respected and Rainy City is Nicholls’ sole representative here. The half-brother to classy chaser Theatre Guide had a decent spell in novice hurdles over the summer and once again looks to have his ground as long as it stays on the better side of good. He tried his hand at chasing but never really got involved and reverted to the smaller obstacles with a solid third-place finish in a competitive handicap at Sandown on Tingle Creek day. This trip should be where he comes into his own and while he may not have as much class as some of his rivals, he is entitled to his place in the field and can hit the frame once again.Advice
CALL TO ORDER – 1pt win @ 3/1 (Paddy Power)
3.00 Exeter – Bathwick Tyres Taunton Beginners’ Chase.
Charmix is arguably the biggest name lining up in this but Harry Fry’s 145-rated hurdler has been disappointing in his two runs over fences so far – his ten-length fourth to Potters Legend was by far the better effort in a half-decent race. Even though this slight drop in trip should suit, he’s always looked like he needs some cut in the ground and the underfoot conditions could be a little quick for him here, not to mention that chasing is something he looks as if he still needs to take to.
Now with Venetia Williams and instantly thrown over fences, Nesterenko is an interesting contender given that Nicky Henderson didn’t consider fences for the son of Doyen in the three years that he trained him. He’ll certainly enjoy the good ground that’s likely and was in good form the last time we saw him in May, when winning over this trip at Warwick, so if he takes to fences and improves for them, he could take a hand. Connections didn’t shell out £27,000 at the Doncaster Sales for a horse they didn’t expect to pay his way, so he has to be respected.Philip Hobbs always does well at Exeter, with a 20% strike rate over the past 5 seasons, and he has the six-year-old Pull The Chord representing him here. Although he fell early on at Ascot last time out, it was a good race and Richard Johnson was on board, so a decent showing looked as if it was expected. He was second behind Master Dee on his chasing debut at Ludlow back in October and that rival won next time out and was a close second to Zarib at Leicester this week. Master Dee is now rated 145, so there’s good reason to expect Pull The Chord to go well here at a track he’s 2 from 3 at – even if he would prefer a softer surface ideally.However, Theo’s Charm looks a high-quality recruit to chasing and his second behind Theinval was a very decent effort on his chasing debut. Nick Gifford’s six-year-old jumped pretty well at Plumpton and you’d expect him to come on plenty for that. This longer trip should suit him well, even though his second in a heavy-ground fixed brush hurdle at Haydock suggests that three miles would be well within his compass but he’s another who would like a bit more cut in the ground than he’s likely to get and that could mean the difference between winning or not.ROBINSFIRTH may also like a soft surface ideally, but Colin Tizzard’s charge won his bumper on good ground and his maiden hurdle win came on good to soft, so shouldn’t have any issues with the ground. The seven-year-old has had injury problems, but has always been held in high regard by Tizzard and made a promising chase debut behind Connetable in a messy, but high-class race at Wincanton where he was hampered three out before running on well. He should come on plenty for that first run in almost two years and if avoiding ‘the bounce’ might just prove the best of these over fences. He was fourth behind Ordo Ab Chao, Value At Risk and Vago Collonges at Cheltenham in the Grade 2 Classic Novices’ Hurdle before his injury break and this will only be his seventh run under rules, so it stands to reason that there is plenty more to come from this Flemensfirth gelding, especially over fences, which could be the making of him.
Advice
ROBINSFIRTH – 1pt win3.10 Cheltenham – Dornan Engineering Relkeel Hurdle (Grade 2)
Robert Walford’s Camping Ground ran out a ready winner of this race twelve months ago but returns to defend his crown on the back of a couple of below-par runs over fences. He was well beaten by Josses Hill at Kempton in November and fell when still in contention at Newbury last time. He returns to hurdles with something to prove having been well beaten in the Champion and Aintree Hurdle last Spring and looks to be up against it.The one who chased him home last year was LIL ROCKERFELLER who has been anything but disappointing subsequently, being placed in two Grade 2s this term as well as filling the same place in the Grade 1 Long Walk Hurdle last time. He only found Unowhatimeanharry to be too good on that occasion and it is fair to say that this race doesn’t seem to contain any horse of that level. He also may have finished closer under more forceful tactics and with him dropping back in trip, I imagine Trevor Whelan will make sure he isn’t too far off the pace. A reproduction of his last two runs would make him very hard to beat and I fancy him to get his reward for a string of fine efforts.At the weights, Cole Harden looks to be well favoured, as he receives 8lb from Lil Rockerfeller (160) and Camping Ground (157) despite being rated 159. He finished third in this race last year but much like Camping Ground, he comes here on the back of an aborted chasing campaign having finished second at Wetherby on his first start over fences. The ground conditions are certainly likely to be in his favour on Sunday but he tends to find life difficult at this time of year and the fitting of cheekpieces for the first time are a concern.Also in receipt of weight from the rest of the field is L’Ami Serge who hasn’t run over hurdles since finishing fourth in the Supreme behind Douvan here in 2015. He looked a smart novice chaser last term, winning twice before being placed in the Spring in Grade 1 company. He didn’t lose much in defeat on his return to racing a couple of weeks ago and looks an intriguing prospect returning to hurdles.One of the least experienced in the field is Protek Des Flos who won his first two starts in Britain before finishing his season with a second at Auteuil at the end of March. He was all set to go chasing this term but made a number of errors on his chasing bow at Newbury so his sights have been switched back to hurdles. On official ratings he has plenty to find with the leading protagonists but he looked a useful prospect last term and it would be no surprise to see him take a big step forward here.
Advice
LIL ROCKERFELLER – 1pt win- DanV89 and BillyHills
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12.10 Newbury – Betfred “£5k Bto Cash Draw Today” Juvenile Hurdle.
The opening race on Challow Hurdle day sees 11 juveniles go to post with a number of them already having experience under their belts.Venetia Williams saddles Enola Gay who makes his British debut but he already has two runs over hurdles to his name in his native France. In terms of weighing up the form it is difficult but his jumping has been good on both occasions and he looks an interesting recruit for the yard.Warren Greatrex also has an interesting runner in the shape of Final Choice who just found Alan King’s Tyrell to be too good on his hurdling debut at Warwick earlier this month. The front two drew well clear of the third that day suggesting that they could have been above average and with normal improvement, he shouldn’t be too far away.The King yard is represented by Saint Contest who was fancied to go well on his debut at Wincanton but seemed to get tired in the closing stages. It is worth bearing in mind that the race in question saw him take on older rivals and he should fare better back against his own age group. He did travel like a nice horse for the most part and if he can see out his race better, then he looks the pick of those with form.Nick Williams often does well with his juveniles so Siruh Du Lac looks worthy of respect having chased home the smart Evening Hush on his debut in November. The gelding showed up well for a long way before getting tired in the closing stages and he should improve physically for that initial outing. Lizzie Kelly takes a valuable 5lb off his back here and if he can step forward on his Exeter run, then he should be right in the shake-up.Regal Gait is one of the final ones to mention and he made a solid start to life over hurdles when finishing second to the multiple winner Linger at Market Rasen earlier this month. A winner over 1m6f on the flat, he seemed to find Market Rasen a little sharp so the more testing Newbury should show him in a better light. Having said that, he was well beaten on the day and needs a good deal of improvement to trouble the market principals.However, the one they may all have to beat is PERCY STREET who makes his hurdling debut having been purchased for 160,000 guineas in October. A dual winner on the flat, he is rated 98 and was last seen chasing home the smart To Be Wild at Doncaster in October. His trainer Nicky Henderson gave him a favourable mention following the victory of Charli Parcs at Kempton the other day and it seems big things are expected of him. The yard have a fine record in this race having won it four times in the last decade, including the last two renewals and I fancy their latest recruit to get off to a winning start here.Advice
PERCY STREET – 2pts win @ 5/6 (bet365)
1.50 Newbury – Betfred “Goals Galore” Challow Novices´ Hurdle (Grade 1)
The feature race at Newbury on Saturday is the Grade 1 Challow Hurdle and it has attracted a strong field, with interest from both sides of the Irish Sea.The Irish interest comes as Gordon Elliott has opted to send over Baltazar D´Allier who made an impressive start to his hurdling career when winning at Naas in November. The Irish point winner had no trouble pulling away from his rivals in the closing stages and although the form isn’t working out too well, he was much the best on the day. His trainer mentioned afterwards that he was a bit babyish so he should improve for the experience and he clearly demands plenty of respect.In terms of a pace angle in the race, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Ami Desbois make the running, having attempted to make all at Cheltenham last time. The six-year-old was reeled in close home by Wholestone but that was over three miles and dropping back in trip, he is likely to make it as hard a test as possible. He has more experience than most having contested Graded novice hurdles last season and you wouldn’t want the others to give him too much rope out in front.The market leader is likely to be Robin Roe who made quite an impression when winning at Aintree in October, drawing clear of some useful rivals to win with twelve lengths to spare at the line. This race was nominated as the target immediately afterwards and the fact that he is towards the head of the market for the Neptune at Cheltenham in March indicates just how highly thought of he is. His absence shouldn’t be too much of a concern and he looks to be the one they all have to beat.There are also a couple of novice hurdle winners at bigger prices which are open to improvement including Paul Nicholls’ Peak To Peak who made no mistake when winning at Fontwell last time. He needs to improve on the bare form of that run to contend here but he has only had the two runs so is open to improvement.Perhaps the more interesting of the pair is Elegant Escape who showed a willing attitude when following up his Chepstow success at Ascot last month. He looked to be losing the argument on more than one occasion over the last two hurdles but battled back gamely to regain the lead and win going away at the line. Clearly his stamina is his forte and if it becomes attritional, then I can see him running better than his odds of 11/1 suggest.However, the one I am going to side with his MESSIRE DES OBEAUX who recorded a hard fought win in Grade 2 company at the beginning of the month. That race saw him concede 7lb to the smart Ballyandy and having been initially outpaced, he ran on strongly in the closing stages. I would not be surprised to see Daryl Jacob have him a little more forward with that in mind and whilst the favourite looks the one to beat, our horse has the form in the book and can improve again.Advice
MESSIRE DES OBEAUX – 1pt win @ 4/1 (Paddy Power)
2.25 Newbury – The Betfred TV Novices’ Limited Handicap Steeple Chase.
A select field of four line up here and while the race could have been more competitive, it still rates as an intriguing little contest.Undoubtedly, KNOCKGRAFFON sets the standard on the back of his demolition of a similar event over course and distance at last month’s Hennessy meeting. The six-year-old progressed nicely as a novice hurdler last campaign, emerging as an outside fancy of many for the Imperial Cup, and rounded off a successful season with a dominant display at Newton Abbot. Having had a pipe-opener at Carlisle, he headed to Newbury and ran out a most convincing winner, despite making a near catastrophic blunder three fences from the finish and fiddling over the last. Prior to that, his jumping looked exemplary and connections even mooted a crack at the Grade 1 Henry VIII Novices’ Chase on the back of that performance, with his jumping seen as a major asset to give him an edge on his rivals. A 12lb rise is probably fair given his facile victory last time out and while he may have to find another gear now, he looks to have plenty in the locker and should be able to land this contest before progressing into a Graded chaser in the New Year.The biggest danger to Dan Skelton’s charge could come from his former employer Paul Nicholls with Fred Winter runner-up Romain de Senam. The four-year-old receives a handy 3lb weight-for-age allowance and looks every an inch a chaser on the evidence we have seen so far. He was put in his place by the classy Top Notch on his chasing debut at Plumpton whilst receiving nearly a stone but his rival did have the experience of a previous outing over fences and is probably on a different level in any case. This is a much more realistic target and a mark of 139 certainly doesn’t over-estimate him but he may have just managed to run into another highly progressive novice here and his day may come in handicaps in the spring.Fellow four-year-old Cepage is another very much of interest having sluiced up over course and distance earlier this month. That was his first run for current connections having left Emmanuel Clayeux in France for €160,000 in July and he made a mockery of the handicappers initial assessment, romping home by 18 lengths off a mark of 119. He is another who has been hit with a 12lb rise but could quite feasibly still be on a good mark and could well develop into a Graded animal later in the season.Icing On The Cake just sneaks in on 10st and while he looks to have a fair bit to find with his more experienced rivals, the winning Irish pointer will almost certainly improve for the switch to the larger obstacles and could get into the mix if it turns out to be a tactical affair.Advice
KNOCKGRAFFON – 2pts win @ 15/8 (Paddy Power, Betfred) -
2.40 Chepstow – Coral Welsh Grand National – Tuesday 27th December
There are several strong trends that should initially be taken into account before coming to a conclusion. The first of these centres around stamina, a vital ingredient for all Welsh National winners. The three miles, five and a half furlongs contest is often run on testing ground and it is a real stamina-sapping test for the horses.Therefore it is no surprise to learn that all of the last ten winners had won over 3m or further prior to coming here. Quite unusually, all of the twenty runners in this year’s field have that to their name so that is one less factor to be worried about.In the last paragraph I alluded as to how difficult a test this was and down the years fresher horses have dealt with conditions best. To quantify that idea, we can see that eight of the last ten winners of the race had run no more than twice during the current season. Only three horses miss the cut on this basis, Theatre Guide, Royale Knight and Raz De Maree so it may be best to steer clear of this quartet.Another important factor is age and with nine of the last ten winners having been aged between six and eight, it is best to steer clear of runners outside of this bracket. There are eight horses within the desired group in this year’s field, the six-year-olds Native River and Beg To Differ, the trio of seven-year-olds Viconte Du Noyer, Vicente and Onenightinvienna and the three eight-year-olds Bishops Road, Carole’s Destrier and Unioniste.Recent form can often give an indication of the fitness of a horse and on the whole you need to be looking for an in-form animal here. All but two of the last ten winners had finished in the first four on their most recent visit to the racecourse so this is not a race in which you should be hoping for a horse bouncing back. Just over half of the field miss out that score so I would suggest it is best to look elsewhere.In terms of weight, the limit appears to be 11st as only two horses have carried more than that to victory in the last decade. When applying that to this year’s field that eliminates the top twelve as they appear on the racecard, from Native River down to Unioniste.Given the undulations that runners have to encounter when racing at Chepstow, it will hardly come as a shock that horses with course form have done well over the years. In fact six of the last ten winners had recorded a course success prior to winning here. Looking at the line-up for tomorrow, there are a host of Chepstow winners including Mountainous and Emperor’s Choice who already have their name on the Welsh National roll of honour.The final factor to take into consideration is the betting and it is fair to say that this is a race in which we should be taking on the market leaders. Silver Birch remains the last winning favourite in 2004 and with the three of the last five winners having returned at double figure SPs it is worth looking for one at a price.ShortlistCAROLE’S DESTRIER – 5/7Mountainous – 5/7Emperor’s Choice – 5/7
ConclusionIt is tight at the top of the trends tree for this race and with no horse having matched all of our trends, we have three horses who fail on a couple of trends each.
Mountainous is no stranger to this race having won it for the second time twelve months ago and he looks well placed to run well again this year. Kerry Lee’s eleven-year-old is clearly edging towards the latter stage of his career but he has clearly been targeted at this race and he had a pipe-opener at Sandown earlier this month. Having finished sixth in that same race last season, he was only pulled up this time around but he comes here off just 1lb higher than when winning in 2013 and with course experience on his side, he warrants a place on the shortlist.Another previous winner to make the shortlist is Emperor’s Choice who just misses the age trend as a nine-year-old. Venetia Williams’ gelding shaped with some promise on his return at Kelso at the beginning of the month and that should have put him spot on for this race. The Williams’ stable is also starting to hit form and he is just 2lb higher than his last winning mark. I mentioned earlier that low weights have tended to do well of late and having snuck in at the foot of the weights, he is fancied to go well.However, the one who gets the nod is CAROLE’S DESTRIER who was last seen finishing a close second in the Hennessy Gold Cup at Newbury. That was the eight-year-old’s first run of the season and with that run under his belt, he must have a good chance of reversing the placings with Native River. He was pulled up on his last visit to Chepstow which raises a slight concern but he looks to have an otherwise strong profile and I fancy him to go close for the Neil Mulholland team. -
12.55 Limerick – The Signsplus Hurdle Race.This looks pretty competitive on paper but one that stands out above the rest is ALLBLAK DES PLACES. Willie Mullins’ charge was a live outsider in the lead up to last season’s Triumph Hurdle on the back of a very good second behind stablemate Footpad in the Grade 1 Spring Juvenile Hurdle at Leopardstown but skipped that engagement at the Cheltenham Festival and has not been seen on the track since. His layoff shouldn’t prove too much of an issue though as the Closutton handler usually has his horses in tip-top condition and he showed last year that he goes well fresh when shedding his maiden tag after a similar lengthy break. The form of that race hasn’t particularly been tested yet with the front two pulling well clear of the remainder but we may be afforded some clues when the runner-up Outspoken makes his seasonal reappearance in the 12.15 at Leopardstown. In any case, he has shown his capabilities at Grade 1 level and should have nothing to fear in this field with conditions perfect and the step up in trip likely to suit him down to the ground.Former stablemate Val de Ferbet is probably the biggest danger but his record over the last couple of seasons is there for all to see. The seven-year-old was a Grade 2 winner over fences as a novice and a Grade 2 runner-up over hurdles back in 2015 but since leaving Willie Mullins, has struggled to get his head in front in six attempts, finishing as the bridesmaid on four separate occasions. It remains to be seen whether the drop back to 2m4f will see him in the best light but at least the easier underfoot conditions will be in his favour here. He will likely run his race and is entitled to finish in the frame but has failed to land a telling blow in similar contests in recent times, finding little when push comes to shove, and is vulnerable to less exposed, improving sorts – especially the pair of four-year-olds with their handy 4lb weight-for-age allowance.One to keep a close eye on is the second 4yo in the field Runfordave who has been steadily progressive in bumpers and over hurdles since making his debut at the Punchestown Festival back in April. He improved with each start in bumpers, scoring at the third attempt at Down Royal in November despite showing signs of greenness, and has carried that form to over the sticks with a pair of highly respectable efforts. He finished a close-up third in a decent-looking novice event on his hurdles debut with only the useful Moulin A Vent and subsequent Fairyhouse scorer Minella Till Dawn ahead of him and duly obliged at the second time of asking in another strong maiden, accounting for Champion Bumper fourth Castello Sforza in the process. He seems to be progressing nicely and is clearly learning with every visit to the track so certainly has a chance of mixing it with the principals.AdviceALLBLAK DES PLACES – 2pts win @ 5/6 (Paddy Power)
1.30 Kempton – 32RED.COM Chase (A Novices’ Limited Handicap)Nicky Henderson could be in for a fruitful boxing day and GOLD PRESENT has very strong claims here. Last season proved to be a write off as he failed to show any form in three starts. However, he bounced back and proved to be a very well-handicapped horse when winning in good style at Doncaster on his chasing debut last month. He did make a couple of early errors but he warmed to the task and jumped well in the second half of the race. That experience will have done him the world of good and I expect more to come on just his ninth start. Before last season it’s worth remembering he won maiden and novice hurdles without breaking sweat, after finishing second to the subsequent Fred Winter winner, Qualando, whom he was giving 10lb to. For me a 7lb rise wouldn’t have stopped him winning at Doncaster, and whilst this is a deeper contest, I expect him to have improved quite a lot and he’s attractively priced at 7/2.Poker School has been priced up as the main danger to the selection but he will need to improve on his Ascot win to defy a rise in class and an 8lb rise in the weights. His trainer said afterwards that this horse doesn’t have much scope and I’d be very surprised if he didn’t find at least one or two of these too good.Two Taffs has always been thought of as a chaser by connections and isn’t without hope. He certainly has the size and scope to be a chaser and will no doubt prove to be better than a 138-rated chaser in time. This does look a deep enough race to make his chase debut in though, and he could be one for the second half of the season.
Sizing Tennessee has bumped into two smart Nicky Henderson prospects over fences so far this term (O O Seven & Whisper) and it looks like it could be a similar story here. He has to concede 2lb to Gold Present and he also looks more at home on heavy ground, so unless there is plenty of rain before now and the race, he looks a shade vulnerable for win purposes.The top-weight is San Benedeto is a consistent sort, and was still going well before departing at Cheltenham last time. He looks sure to run his race again but he holds no secrets from the handicapper off his current mark.The two remaining runners, Max Ward and Remiluc, cannot be overlooked lightly having both shown ability over fences so far. The former was a smart hurdler and gave Parlour Games a race in May 2014. He always faced an impossible task taking on Altior last time and this is a more suitable task, but I suspect he will come up short. Meanwhile, the latter ran well on his chasing debut at Newbury but like Max Ward, he’ll probably need some of the big guns to misfire if he’s to win this.AdviceGOLD PRESENT – 1pt win @ 7/2 (Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook)
1.50 Wetherby – 188Bet Rowland Meyrick Handicap Chase.A strong renewal on paper and it looks a good race for each-way players with 10 runners standing their ground at the declaration stage. A few trends to consider, the first being low weights have historically done well in this race. Since 2000 six of the 11 winners have carried 10st 8lb or less. In the same time frame there have also only been two winning favourites and seven of the 11 winners have returned at 7/1 or bigger, suggesting it may not pay to focus solely on those at the top of the market.At the time of writing Blaklion and Yala Enki are vying for favouritism at around 7/2. The RSA winner Blaklion tops the weights and this represents a drop in class having run in the Charlie Hall Chase and the Hennessy so far this term. He caught my eye in the latter but didn’t quite see out the trip as well as some. He’s in calmer waters here and I can see him running well but he’s passed over at the prices giving weight away all-round.Yala Enki made a winning chase debut at Haydock earlier this month and has been hit by a 10lb rise as a result. That puts him on a career high mark which looks within his limits but the quick return to the track has to be a slight concern. As has the forecast better ground, with his best from coming on a soft surface. He would be of interest if there was plenty of rain around but on good to soft or better I’d be happy to take him on.The market spoke volumes for Definitly Red in the Rehearsal Chase last time out but as has been the case in the past, he was let down by his jumping. He was doing his best work at the finish on that occasion but he could find himself on the back foot again if his jumping lets him down. He’s clearly highly regarded but I’m not willing to take a chance at around 9/2 that his jumping will have vastly improved since Newcastle.Henri Parry Morgan looked a stayer on the up when second to Native River at Aintree in the spring but he struggled in the Hennessy off his revised handicap mark. He’s 15lb higher than when winning at Uttoxeter and I’d like to see how he fares here off 150 before getting involved. He could well have needed the run last time but he was strong enough in the betting to suggest he was straight enough, but isn’t one to write off just yet.Next in the betting is Charlie Longsdon’s Our Kaempfer. He’s a horse with lots of potential but is still searching for his first win since March 2015. He ran well last time out at Newbury when proving no match for Clan Des Obeaux; he probably paid for taking that rival on, resulting in him losing second place. He steps back up to 3m which he has shown is within his reach when running well behind Thistlecrack at Aintree, and Mall Dini in the Pertempts Final. He has a nice weight here so I would expect him to run well again, but his ability to find a way of not winning puts me off slightly.That leads me to the selection and the bottom weight ACTINPIECES. Trainer Pam Sly and jockey Gina Andrews teamed up to with Helpston to finish 2nd in the race in 2011 and they look to have another strong contender here. She has had three runs this term, but you can write off her second start at Market Rasen as she was in season. Before that she took on Ballybolley here and was still in with every chance before a last fence mistake ended their challenge. She has made amends since though, returning to Wetherby to lower the colours of the odds on favourite Zeroshadesofgrey. Having also won a novice hurdle at the track it’s not surprise to see connections return to a venue she likes. Over hurdles she finished a close 2nd off a 1lb lower mark and given she has always been thought of as a chaser I think she has plenty of potential off this mark. This is a step-up in class but she receives weight all round and is versatile ground wise, so at around 14/1 Pam Sly’s five-year-old makes plenty of each-way appeal.Elsewhere, last year’s winning trainer Warren Greatrex saddles Ballyculla. He also makes some appeal each-way at around 14/1. He won a three-runner novice chase here last season before pulling up in the Scottish National and I doubt we’ve seen the best of him yet. Having said that his jumping wasn’t great in the Eider Chase last season and back in a competitive handicap may just find him out first time up.Seventh Sky and Wakanda wouldn’t be out of it if bouncing back to their best but I get the impression they may come up short in this field. Wakanda is now 2lbs lower than his last winning mark but has shown very little since that win, whilst Seventh Sky is still 4lbs above his last winning mark.AdviceACTINPIECES – 1pt e/w @ 14/1 (Betfair Sportsbook, Betway)
2.05 Kempton – 32Red Kauto Star Novices’ Chase (Grade 1)As always in this race, Paul Nicholls looks to have a very strong hand – Caspian Caviar Gold Cup winner from just two weeks ago, Frodon, has been declared and looks the first choice for the stable with Sam Twiston-Davies booked for the ride, while Present Man will also line up with Jack Sherwood in the saddle.Although we’re at the mercy of any unpredictable weather, it does look as if the ground will be relatively decent on Boxing Day at Kempton, so it would seem that Present Man would be best suited by conditions, even though his stablemate will be fine on good to soft. The six-year-old has been a revelation since he made the switch to fences, never finishing outside the first two when completing and winning a couple of useful contests on his last two runs, including a defeat of the highly-regarded O O Seven in a four-runner Grade 2 at Doncaster two weeks ago.However, this will be by far the toughest task he’s faced, and the class angle does certainly favour Frodon, who won a Grade 2 Novice Chase back in November, comfortably accounting for Shantou Village and Virgilio, who looks to have a lot on his plate here again. His win at Cheltenham last time was a strong-staying effort in tough conditions and three miles looks the natural next step for a four-year-old who has impressed hugely over fences so far. Still, he still has to prove that three miles is within his compass and even though he does receive 7lb weight for age, he’s been on the go plenty this year already and this has never seemed like it was the target for him.Another horse who comes into the race on a real upward curve is the Peter Bowen-trained Minella Daddy, who was unlucky to be collared by Regal Encore just a week ago in the Listed Silver Cup Handicap at Ascot. He looks sure to run a decent, honest race if this race doesn’t come too soon, but I do question his class and whether he can handle some of the rivals in this who could well have more potential.At big prices, Colin Tizzard’s Royal Vacation seems to have been completely overlooked here, but I think after some considerate handling so far over fences, he could well make an impact in this. He stayed well in heavy ground at Lingfield to win over three miles and while he was third of four at Ascot behind Politologue and Rock The Kasbah, he was staying on strongly after being outpaced and looking done with a long way out. He’s obviously got a very good attitude and I think the form of that last effort will work out well – Politologue could be a top class chaser. Still, this may be too big a task for him at this stage of his career on ground that might not be soft enough ideally.
Six-year-olds have won three of the last five runnings of this race and market principals have been the ones to concentrate on – both categories that Anibale Fly falls into.The Tony Martin-trained gelding has been very exciting over fences so far, improving plenty on his hurdling form, stylishly winning on debut at Navan over an extended two miles before finishing second to Coney Island in the Grade 1 Drinmore Novices’ Chase at Fairyhouse at the beginning of the month. His chasing debut win has had the form franked by Martello Tower, who was easily brushed off by Anibale Fly under hands and heels riding, while his most recent effort saw him defeat Alpha Des Obeaux, Diamond King and A Toi Phil to name but three smart horses. He has the class to go very well here, but there is a huge question mark over the three mile trip. He stayed two and a half miles over hurdles and seemed to stay well enough in the Drinmore over that trip, but he’s a horse with plenty of pace, who has been running at two miles plenty and I wonder if this staying trip could blunt that speed, one of his best assets. However, if he stays, he’ll almost certainly be in with a chance at the end.MIGHT BITE was a very impressive winner of a two and a half mile novices’ chase at Doncaster at the start of December and this step up in trip is almost certainly a big positive for this half-brother to stayer Beat That. He’s always been one that trainer Nicky Henderson has had high hopes for over fences – this looks the logical next step for a horse that was rated 148 over hurdles and has plenty of potential to rate higher over the larger obstacles. He’d prefer the ground on the good side so any significant rain would be a negative, but good to soft would be fine and the booking of Daryl Jacob is another positive for his chances, especially after they paired up to win so well last time out. Jacob was impressed by the horse last time and I think he’s got a nice future over fences ahead of him, so should go very well here in a race that looks open to a strong-staying novice with plenty of class.
AdviceMIGHT BITE – 1pt e/w @ 8/1 (Paddy Power)
3.15 Kempton – 32Red King George VI Chase.A select field of five go to post for the Boxing Day highlight for thoroughly fascinating race which is dividing opinion. With due respect to Josses Hill Silviniaco Conti and Tea For Two, it looks a match between the big guns from the Colin Tizzard stable, the reigning champion Cue Card, and the World Hurlde winner, Thistlecrack.I will start with the current champion, Cue Card, a horse who I rate very highly and have backed regularly over the last two years. He somewhat disappointed in the Charlie Hall Chase but bounced back in sublime style at Haydock in the Betfair Chase. The ten-year-old looked to be better than ever last time out but there are a couple of things that bring in some doubt as to whether he will retain his crown. Firstly, like many, I am still left wondering what might have been the result in the Gold Cup has he not come to grief, when apparently still full of running. It was definitely far enough out to suggest ‘he would have won’; the Cheltenham hill was still to be climbed and who knows what would have happened. Secondly, I still have the impression that he may not have won this race 12 months ago had Don Cossack stood up, or even if Ruby Walsh would have ridden a slightly different race on Vautour, after all, he was only in front at the line. There is also the likelihood that Coneygree paid for a lack of match practice at Haydock (I’m not saying Coneygree would have won with a run under his belt, but it certainly would have been a lot closer). Overall, Cue Card is clearly very smart horse, but whether he will retain his King George crown, I’m not so sure.That leads me to his stable mate, THISTLECRACK, and in my opinion the best British horse in training. Like Cue Card, he does have some question marks to answer, most notably his experience over fences. After only three starts over the larger obstacles connections have decided to take the plunge and step in to open company. His jumping has been well scrutinised to date but barring a few over exuberant leaps at Cheltenham I don’t think he’s done a lot wrong. Those ‘mistakes’ came when under severe restraint and he jumped much better in the latter stages when allowed his head. He then went to Newbury and was pretty much foot perfect, encouragingly showing both horse and jockey had learnt from Cheltenham. I also believe that Colin Tizzard must have seen enough on the racecourse, and the schooling ground, to believe he is ready for this test. If he thought he needed more experience he would be running in the novice race, a decision I’m sure his owners would be fully behind.Away from his jumping the son of Kayf Tara possesses an extraordinary engine. He’s barely come off the bridle since the Long Distance Hurdle in November last year, winning seven races (three Grade 1s) easily, no ordinary horses can do this, and Thistlecrack is no ordinary horse. It was a big call from connections to go for this race but I think it will prove the right one. The forecast decent ground would be another positive for me; whilst Cue Card handles it, Colin Tizzard has been very vocal that he seems to prefer deeper ground these days. I think Tom Scudamore will keep things pretty simple by being prominent and one by one I think Thistlecrack will gallop his four rivals into submission. I believe Thistlecrack will go off favourite which makes the current 6/4 with Sky Bet even more appealing, and I think he will be incredibly difficult to beat if his jumping passes the test.Of the others Tea For Two is favoured to reverse the form with Josses Hill back up in trip at his beloved Kempton (won three times). He was an impressive winner of the Feltham 12 months ago and looks to have been trained for this race. Josses Hill has got his career back on track with two wins in as many starts this season but he has to prove his stamina over three miles at the highest level and his exuberance is likely to be his own worst enemy here. That leaves the 2013 & 2014 winner Silviniaco Conti who again has something to prove after fading away in the Betfair Chase. That did come on very testing ground so a better performance here wouldn’t be a shock, but his best days look behind him and it’s hard to see him troubling the two market leaders.
AdviceTHISTLECRACK – 2pts win @ 6/4 (Sky Bet)
3.45 Kempton – 32Red On The App Store Handicap Hurdle.The final race at Kempton on Boxing Day is a 2m5f handicap hurdle and sees a mix of generations with some horses on their way up the ladder up against some more experienced rivals.Sitting towards the head of the weights is Jonjo O’Neill’s Doesyourdogbite who has won his first two starts over hurdles, at Market Rasen and Hereford. The latest of those saw him defy a penalty and having jumped right-handed at some of his obstacles, he should be fine going around here. His opening mark looks fair enough on 132 but this promises to be quite different for him and I think 6/1 is short enough given his relative inexperience.One of the more experienced runners in the line-up is Alan King’s Big Chief Benny who bounced back from a below-par run at Market Rasen on his return to finish a close second at Doncaster earlier this month. He isn’t the easiest to win with and has been raised 3lb for his latest effort which is likely to make life more difficult for him, but the King team remains in good form so he shouldn’t be too far away.Michael Bell is probably more likely to be at Wolverhampton on Boxing Day than Kempton but he saddles an interesting runner here in the shape of Instant Karma. The five-year-old won twice over hurdles during the Summer and ran a fine race when second to Sternrubin at Ascot in October. He probably just found the 2m trip a bit sharp for him that day and it is interesting that he gets stepped up in trip here. Perhaps surprisingly for a race as competitive as that, he was only raised 1lb for finishing second. Barry Geraghty takes the place of Leighton Aspell on this occasion and if he can handle this slower surface, it is hard to see him finishing out of the places.Nicky Henderson also has a strong hand of runners at this meeting and he relies on Omessa Has here, who has so far failed to live up to expectations on her first two runs in Britain. A winner on her second start in France, she has failed to see her races out of late so it is interesting that she is fitted with a tongue-tie for this contest. Her form is hard to weigh up and it is hard to argue that she isn’t priced up on her connections rather than her form. She could clearly improve a good deal but I think she is worth passing over on this occasion.Dan Skelton’s Spiritofthegames has done little wrong over hurdles so far, just finding Grade 2 company a little too hot to handle on his latest start at Cheltenham. Prior to that the four-year-old had beaten another subsequent winner in the shape of Progress Drive at Ayr and a mark of 125 looks fair enough on what he has done to date. One slight worry would be that the Skelton yard are a little out of sorts at the moment but market confidence would indicate he is fancied to go well.Lisheen Prince is another lightly-raced type who finished second behind the smart Apasionado at Huntingdon in November. Not surprisingly being an Irish point winner, the five-year-old seemed to appreciate the step up to 2m4f when winning at Ffos Las next time. The form of that race isn’t working out too well with the second and third both having been beaten since but he was much the best on the day and he warrants plenty of respect on his handicap debut.However, the one of most interest is MOSCATO who was rated as high as 95 on the flat so his opening mark of 125 looks workable enough. The five-year-old has yet to get his head in front over hurdles but has improved with each of his three runs to date and he should appreciate the return to 2m5f here. He has shown a tendency to be keen over hurdles so far so the stronger pace of a handicap should help him to settle and he has plenty of experience in big fields on the flat. He is fitted with blinkers for the first time over hurdles here in a bid to eke out further improvement and in what looks a hot race, I think he has an each-way chance at around 9/1.AdviceMOSCATO – 1pt e/w @ 10/1 (bet365, BetVictor, Paddy Power) -
This is clearly going to be the biggest test of Thistlecrack’s chasing career to date and the big question mark is how his jumping will hold up in this more competitive race, likely to be run at a stronger gallop than the three chases he has contested so far. If his jumping does stand up to the rigours of race, then it is hard to argue he won’t have too many gears for his older stablemate but it promises to be quite a clash.
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1.45 Fakenham (Sun) – The At The Races Handicap Steeple Chase.Having tipped this horse three weeks ago I am keeping the faith with SHANROE SANTOS on Sunday’s card at Fakenham. Returning from a lengthy absence the seven-year-old shaped with plenty of promise at Doncaster last time out. Understandably fitness told in the end and he weakened to finish fifth of seven, but there was enough from that performance to suggest he retains the ability that earned him a crack at the 2015 Albert Bartlett. At home on decent ground conditions should be ideal providing we don’t have much rain over the weekend. Another reason to be bullish is Lucy Wadham operates at a 40% strike rate with her chasers at the course over the past five years, returning a healthy +16.58 level stakes profit. All in all I think this horse has a bright future over fences and can get his career back on track here.
Drumlee Lad finished ahead of the selection last time out but there are reasons to believe we can reverse the form. Firstly, Drumlee Lad had race fitness on his side, and secondly the selection receives a 7lb pull in the weights now. Drumlee Lad is likely to be shorter in the betting, but for me he will have it all to do to confirm the form over Lucy Wadham’s charge.
Cody Wyoming was an impressive winner at Lingfield last time but finds himself 6lbs higher in the ratings as a result. He has previously found like tough off marks in the mid-120s so it would be a surprise if the ten-year-old could win off this sort of mark now. He also tends to perform better with more cut in the ground so the likely better ground has to be viewed as a negative.
The rest of the field look set for a battle for the places. Templehills and Play The Ace have both been caught out by revised marks having both won three starts ago, and whilst Noble Legend is 8lbs below the mark he won off here in December 2015, his last three runs, one of which came here, are very uninspiring.
Miami Present looks the most solid to run his race. He was beaten by just a length at the track two starts ago off a 3lb lower mark, and despite disappointing at Catterick, a return to this venue could see him bounce back to form (also won a Maiden Hurdle here in October 2015). He certainly shouldn’t be the outsider of the field like one betting forecast predicts.
Advice
SHANROE SANTOS – 1pt win @ SP
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11.50 Haydock Park – The 32Red Casino Conditional Jockeys’ Handicap Hurdle Race.
We have a competitive-looking handicap to get the ball rolling today with a few potential improvers in the line-up to whet the appetite.David Pipe has employed the services of his top conditional David Noonan aboard EAMON AN CNOIC and the improving five-year-old could well be up to making his handicap debut a winning one. The son of Westerner joined current connections for a hefty €175,000 having finished a good second in an Irish point last April. The form of his runners-up effort read pretty well having only been beaten by the potentially very smart Lisheen Prince, a recent scorer at Ffos Las, with subsequent bumper winner Bosco Di Alco three places back in fifth. A pair of pulled-up runners have also gone in over hurdles since which puts another boost on the form. It’s fair to say he hasn’t quite lived up to his lofty price tag as yet but his win at Fakenham in October showed that he was well and truly heading in the right direction and he was probably value for more than the winning margin given he still showed signs of inexperience as he hit the front. An opening mark of 123 looks very fair on balance and if he copes with the softer conditions here, he must have a big shout.
Pokora du Lys doesn’t have the most attractive form figures on paper but given he lost all chance when making a damning blunder when still travelling well last time, he is entitled to respect on his handicap debut. His form in France was nothing to write home about and it is a bit of an eyebrow-raiser that he was sold out of Nicky Henderson’s yard for only £6,000 without having run for the trainer from Seven Barrows, but he was shaping well in a pretty strong Southwell contest last time and starts out here at a realistic level.
The one that may cause the selection most trouble is Philip Kirby’s Sakhee’s City as long as a heavy fall at Wetherby earlier in the month hasn’t knocked his confidence. It is a bit worrying that his previous four completions had all been runners-up efforts but despite his case of seconditis, his consistency can’t be knocked and his penultimate start behind Eyes Of A Tiger was a perfectly reasonable effort. With only a 2lb rise for that, he can still prove competitive.
Advice
EAMON AN CNOIC – 1pt win @ 9/2 (Paddy Power)
12.40 Ascot – Foundation Developments Novices’ Handicap Hurdle.
WYLDE MAGIC looks potentially very well-handicapped and could take some stopping in the opener at Ascot. The Evan Williams-trained gelding has run two promising races over hurdles to date, twice bumping in to Geordie Des Champs (now rated 129 and unbeaten in three starts over hurdles), and looks well capable of winning off 116. This will be the five-year-olds first start in handicap company, and the first over 3m, but the way he shaped last time out gives me plenty of hope that he will stay the extra distance. Geordie Des Champs was giving Wylde Magic 12lbs on their most recent outing but the pair pulled 22 lengths clear of the third and that ranks as a solid effort. Even after being headed the son of Oscar kept battling and was coming back at the line, indicating he isn’t short of stamina. He also jumps very well and settled perfectly well for Adam Wedge last time, positive traits for a horse stepping up in trip. Horses from the yard, especially under this ownership, are renowned for progressing with racing so I’m expecting further improvement. Any such improvement should see him go extremely close and he looks worthy of a bet at 13/2 off what I believe to be a lenient opening mark from the assessor.
There are obvious dangers, starting with the Nicky Henderson-trained pair, Ballinure and Minstrel Royal. The former won off a 2lb lower mark at Newton Abbot in September but has come up short off higher marks the last twice. The handicapper has relented but he doesn’t appear to hold much in hand, however he has the assistance of Barry Geraghty, and an improved display wouldn’t be the greatest of shocks. Meanwhile, the latter looks a little more progressive and probably a bigger threat to the selection. He finished a close second at the course over 2m4f last time out, and despite the winner disappointing subsequently, this close relation to Barbers Shop should have more to come up in trip.
Red Infantry was well-fancied for a competitive handicap at Cheltenham in November and ran well to finish fourth. This contest doesn’t look as strong which entitles him to be in the mix, but he does have to contend with a 4lb higher mark. Walt is another unexposed type and he ran well on his debut for Neil Mulholland last time out. The winner of that particular contest has subsequently disappointed but this still ranks as a fair effort and is another one with strong credentials. Last time out scorers Desert Sensation and Trans Express (won at Exeter on Thursday) may not have the potential as a few of these, and whilst they arrive here in good form I’m prepared to focus on those less exposed types, with preference for the improving WYLDE MAGIC.
Advice
WYLDE MAGIC – 1pt win @ 13/2 (bet365 & Paddy Power)
1.50 Ascot –The BGC Partners Handicap Steeple Chase.
A competitive affair, with plenty of progressive chasers contesting. Captain Conan is arguably the big name in the race and you have to respect Nicky Henderson’s runner off a mark of 139, even though his last run wasn’t particularly encouraging. This horse is a Grade 1 Novice Chase winner so there’s obviously plenty of ability there, but he’s been a tough horse to get fit and ready, so he might be worth passing on, even though his mark does look very generous on his best form.
Ultragold heads the weights and Colin Tizzard’s runner looks a big threat – just 4lb higher than for his last win at Newbury, he’s an improving handicapper who should play a part. Dusky Lark, from the same stable, also has a chance under Tom Scudamore. He’s been running solid races in defeat recently, so should go well off the same mark as when finishing second at Kempton in November.
Jonjo O’Neill has a pair of entrants and while both will have to improve hugely on their last runs, In The Rough and Join The Clan still have plenty of potential and so can’t be ruled out.
Pull The Chord looks to hold solid claims for Philip Hobbs after making a satisfactory chasing debut behind Master Dee in October and a mark of 131 could well underestimate the six-year-old. However, he would want some softer ground than he’s likely to get this weekend, so might be one to keep in mind for another day.
The one that I want to be with here is Ben Pauling’s RAVEN’S TOWER, who was three lengths behind Ultragold on his last run, but gets a 5lb pull with that rival now. He’s been good this in 2 mile handicap chases and the track, trip and ground should be ideal for this son of Raven’s Pass. He’s been dropped a pound for that third-placed finish at Newbury and looks set for a big run for his in-form yard.
Advice
RAVEN’S TOWER – 0.5pt e/w @ 14/1 (Betvictor & Sky Bet)
2.25 Ascot – The JLT Long Walk Hurdle Race (Grade 1)
This year’s renewal looks an absolute cracker with seven of the 11 runners boasting at least one Grade 1 to their name. The market is headed by one of these in the shape of last season’s Albert Bartlett winner Unowhatimeanharry, and rightfully so having bolted up in the Long Distance Hurdle at Newbury three weeks ago. Harry Fry’s eight-year-old started last season off a mark of 123 and has done nothing but improve to now boast an official handicap rating of 165, the highest in the field by 5lbs. A repeat of his Newbury success would make him extremely difficult to beat but this race will take a lot more winning and I’m prepared to look elsewhere than back him at 11/8.
Richard Johnson stepped in for the injured Ryan Hatch aboard The New One last weekend and he has been handed a plum spare ride on his stable mate, Ballyoptic. Nigel Twiston-Davies’ six-year-old is an admirable type and rounded off the previous campaign with a Grade 1 success in the Doom Bar Sefton Novices’ Hurdle, but he was firmly put in his place by Unowhatimeanharry last time out and I find it hard to see him reversing the places. However, the stiffer track at Ascot will be more suitable so he should bridge the gap and will be a popular selection amongst the each-way players.
Reve De Sivola, the winner of the 2012, 2013 and 2014 renewals, was also behind Unowhatimeanharry last time, finishing a well-beaten fifth of nine. It would be folly to dismiss this course specialist but this looks a deeper renewal than those he’s won in the past, and at 11 going on 12, it is hard to imagine him being able to fend off a field of this strength. He is also better suited to much softer ground these days. He would also have to overcome a major age trend and become only the third horse aged ten or older to win the race since it became a conditions event in 1971.
The French-raider Alex De Larredya is an interesting runner for Francois Nicolle and the in-form Daryl Jacob. He was an impressive winner of the Grand Prix d’Automne at the beginning of November in which he had Reve De Sivola and Ptit Zig in behind. Visually it was a taking performance, especially as he had to jump a faller along the way, and he cannot be overlooked easily. However, the main concern for me would be the forecast quicker ground as his winning French form has come on very soft going. There are also question marks about his French form (had previously been beaten by Ptit Zig), so he is passed over at a 7/1. At double figures he may have been worth chancing each-way, but his current odds are far too short for me.
The aforementioned Ptit Zig is trading at about 10/1 which is understandable given he was firmly put in his place by Alex De Larredya on their most recent outing. Whilst he’s a fairly reliable sort he usually comes up short at the highest level on home soil and it’s likely to be the same story here. Stable mate Zarkandar was second in this race as the 4/6 favourite in 2014 and like Ptit Zig, just seems to find one or two too good at the highest level in Britain these days. His latest success at the highest level in England came in the Aintree Hurdle back in 2013 and he looks up against here. The same can be said for Shelford, West Approach and Surtee Du Berlais, who all face near impossible tasks at the weights. Un Temps Pour Tout was well-fancied for the Hennessy three weeks ago and reverts back to hurdles here. He would be entitled to close if at his absolute best, but the Hennessy is a gruelling test, as Saphir De Rheu found when attempting the same feat 12 months ago. That outing is bound to have left its mark and he is easily opposed on that basis here.
That leads me to the one remaining runner and the selection, LIL ROCKERFELLER. There is a lot to like about Neil King’s stable star, no more so than his response to pressure, and on ratings he comes out second highest behind the favourite. Thought highly enough of to be supplemented for the Champion Hurdle last season, he looks a horse to keep on side with the focus on staying trips. His two runs so far this term have been very promising, and whilst he has been beaten on both occasions, the form is much better than the bare facts. Starting with his seasonal reappearance at Wetherby and his first try over three miles. He was only beaten 3¼ lengths by the then 158-rated Silsol, and Lil Rockerfeller was giving him 8lbs so he comes out best at the weights. He then went to Ascot and took on Yanworth in the Coral Hurdle and gave the third favourite for the Champion Hurdle a scare. It’s also worth noting that yet again he was giving weight away all round. Personally I am a huge fan of Yanworth, and whilst he had fitness on his side, to give a horse of that quality 4lbs was some performance. Ground conditions (currently good to soft) are also likely to be ideal too, with four of his six career wins coming on good to soft going. The same can’t be said for some of his rivals who would prefer more cut in the ground.
Overall, whilst Unowhatimeanharry is the one they have to beat I think Lil Rockerfeller and Ballyoptic have the best chances of causing an upset and I rather take a chance on a horse that hasn’t been upstaged by that rival in the past. Noel Fehily also steps in for the suspended Trevor Whelan, and whilst I have nothing against Trevor, there are few jockeys riding as well as Noel at the moment, so this is an added bonus.
Advice
LIL ROCKERFELLER – 1pt e/w @ 7/1 (General)
2.55 Newcastle – The Protecting Your Wealth Handicap Chase.
Adrian Heskin has a strong book of rides at Newcastle on Saturday and BUN DORAN looks to have an extremely good chance of coming out on top in the 2m4f handicap chase. Sent-off the 3/1 favourite for his seasonal/chasing debut at Uttoxeter five weeks ago, he fared better than the bare result. He was beaten a fair distance in third but he paid for going hard early. He should also strip fitter for that outing, and assuming Heskin sets a slightly slower pace, he should take some beating. The Uttoxeter race is working out well too, with two of the horses in behind winning next time out (Brandon Hill & Gino Trail), and one going extremely close at Ascot on Friday (Champagne At Tara). Tom George’s gelding is a brother to Neil Mulholland’s smart Shantou Village, so has the pedigree to develop into an above average performer. He also jumped pretty well last time, and certainly looks a chaser, and with this contest looking easier than his Uttoxeter assignment everything points towards a big run.
Of the opposition, Ash Park looks the biggest danger. Before unseating last time, his form figures read 121122, so he’s been holding his form despite going up in the weights. He fell too early last time to know whether his latest rise to 133 has found him out, but given he was beaten off 127 the time before, I have the suspicion the handicapper may now have him where he wants him.
I believe the same can be said for Edmund and Bernardelli who look to be high enough in the weights at this moment in time. The pair are 8lbs and 3lbs above their last winning marks respectively, and I can’t envisage them having the same scope for improvement as the selection. Boric also finds himself 3lbs above his last winning mark and races off the same mark he finished 3rd off over the course and distance three weeks ago.
No Planning is a likeable sort but he tends to do his racing over further (5th in the Midlands National) and whilst he has form over shorter trips, I get the feeling this could be a stepping stone to a longer term target. He also fell last time so connections will be hoping to rebuild his confidence here.
Final Assault is one worthy of a mention. He’s run well of his current mark of 132 the last twice and is only 2lb higher than his last winning mark so he isn’t handicapped out of things given he has run well off higher marks. But like No Planning, I think he wants slightly further to be seen at his best.
As touched on throughout the piece I think this is a fairly exposed bunch barring the unexposed BUN DORAN, who looks the part on paper and makes plenty of appeal on his second start over fences.
Advice
BUN DORAN – 1pt win @ 5/2 (Paddy Power)
3.00 Ascot – The Lavazza Jolie Silver Cup Handicap Steeple Chase (Listed Race)
Another in a long line of top staying handicaps throughout the season which perennially throws up a well above average winner. This year’s renewal looks every bit as competitive as recent years with most of the big yards represented.
Paul Nicholls is double-handed in his quest to land the race for the second time in five years and has a big chance with Le Mercurey. Like Nicholls’ most recent winner The Minack, the six-year-old is a second season chaser who could well still have his best days very much in front of him. He was a fortunate winner of the Grade 2 Noel Novices’ Chase at this meeting last year and following a mid-season blip, bounced back to form in no uncertain terms with victory in the Grade 2 Future Champions Novices’ Chase at the Scottish Grand National meeting. He was far from disgraced when 3rd behind a pair of Gigginstoen runners in Sub Lieutenant and Outlander in a Down Royal Grade 2 on his reappearance and performed respectably behind Many Clouds at Aintree earlier this month. He clearly has a lot of ability so shouldn’t be overestimated by a mark of 152 and can be forgiven a disappointing effort on his last handicap start in the Sky Bet Chase given that was only his third chase start against more experienced rivals.
With Sam Twiston-Davies booked, he looks the stable first string but, at the time of writing, Irish Saint is the more fancied of the Ditcheat pair in the offices. He was a classy novice a couple of seasons back butsuffered a leg injury and missed all of the last campaign. He weakened out of it on his reappearance over hurdles at Cheltenham’s Open Meeting but that was to be expected given the length of time he spent off the track and is entitled to come on a great deal for that pipe-opener. A return to his very best form would entitle him to a chance here.
Jonjo O’Neill eclipses Nicholls in that he is trebly-represented and looks to have a pair of very live chances at the foot of the weights. The likeable Holywell towards the top of the line-up completes the trio but we all know that he is a much better horse in the spring so the best chance of a winner from Jackdaws Castle looks to come in the shape of Go Conquer, who could prove to be very well-handicapped having only been beaten a quarter of a length by subsequent Grade 2 scorer Present Man last month. In fairness, he was probably flattered by the proximity to the winner though and has to prove that he can stay this far as he steps into the unknown having failed to complete over this trip twice in points.
Another Hero is an interesting contender just sneaking in at the bottom of the field and he has proved most consistent having prevailed in seven of his thirteen starts under rules. A line can be struck through his seasonal bow at Exeter where he will almost certainly have benefitted from the run-out and it was pleasing to see him complete having crashed out in the Irish National on his previous start. As one of only two course and distance winners in the field, this challenge should hold no fears for him and on just a 3lb higher mark than when winning at Ludlow back in February, he rates a live outsider.
That being said, he looks to have been passed over by Barry Geraghty in favour of Regal Encore who has bags to prove having been pulled up on his last two starts. His last two incompletions took his tally to five pulled-ups out of his last six but sandwiched between was a very strong effort when runner-up in the ultra-competitive Pat Taaffe Handicap Chase at the Punchestown Festival. He has been eased a further couple of pounds on the back of his Cheltenham run last week but looks in need of a bit more help from the handicapper at present.
Another likely outsider is top weight Annacotty who looks to have a massive task on his hand conceding weight all round. The consistent handicapper has paid the price for a couple of wins in valuable chases at Cheltenham last season and remains 4lb higher than his last victory back in January. He can’t be completely written off however given he is a Grade 1 winner for all that this may look to be too big an ask.
Tenor Nivernais finished closely behind Alan King’s charge in January and is another to have paid the price from the handicapper. His following two efforts were a tad disappointing but he must come into consideration given his exemplary record fresh. The nine-year-old has struck on his last two seasonal reappearances so this might be the best time to catch him even though he is 18lb higher than his last two winning marks.
From a pair that look handicapped to the hilt, to one that could be very well in on old form. Eduard was a very useful chaser a couple of seasons back and returned with a most respectable effort on his first run back from injury when not beaten far in fourth in the Grade 2 1965 Chase. Somewhat surprisingly, the assessor has dropped him 4lb on the back of that which would give him a massive chance if he returns to anything like the horse we saw finish fourth in the Ryanair back in 2015.
It is a similar scenario for THE DRUIDS NEPHEW who has been lowered 5lb for running a most creditable race when fifth in the bet365 Gold Cup on his final start last campaign. He is now only 2lb higher than when scoring at the Cheltenham Festival in 2015 and let’s not forget that he was sent off at only 10/1 for the Grand National, and was travelling exceptionally well when falling 5 out, off that very same mark. He is another to have gone well fresh in the past and representing Neil Mulholland who struck in this with The Young Master two years ago, he looks to be a very good value each-way bet.
Fletchers Flyer has been ultra-consistent for Harry Fry and finally started to realise his potential when a good winner of a marathon handicap chase at the Punchestown Festival back in April. He clearly has the ability to mix it in this field but the drop back to 3m may just find him out here as he looks a dour stayer and is more of a National type for later in the campaign.
The only other last-time-out winner in the field is the hat-trick seeking Minella Daddy who has shown stark improvement since switched to fences. The former Irish pointer had shown enough over fences to suggest he had a fair level of ability but has blossomed over the larger obstacles of late, demolishing the field in ready fashion in a course and distance handicap last month. An 11lb rise for that looks a tad harsh on the bare form but you couldn’t fail to be impressed with the way in which he prevailed although this may come just a bit too soon for him in such a competitive race on just his fourth chase start.
Triolo d’Alene rates an interesting contender off just a 1lb higher mark than when landing the Hennessy back in 2013. He always looked like the winner but benefitted from a fall two out to score in a Listed chase at Kempton on his seasonal bow last term but was found wanting in some pretty hot company after that. This is at least a more realistic level but it would be difficult to be too confident about his chances.
Colin Tizzard’s Fourth Act completes the line-up and while he looks to be slightly up against it in a field of this class, he has recorded a pair of solid fourths in Grade 3 handicap on his previous two starts this season. He remains on the same mark so can conceivably once again hit the frame.
Advice
THE DRUIDS NEPHEW – 1pt e/w @ 14/1 (General)
3.35 Ascot – The Wessex Youth Trust Handicap Hurdle Race (Grade 3)
On paper, this looks a really good renewal of this race and one that is sure to produce lots of winners in the future. One such horse is the smart Meet The Legend from Dan Skelton’s yard, who showed plenty of good form on his first season over hurdles, signing off with a close third to Le Prezien at Kelso in the Grade 2 Premier Hurdle in March. His mark of 138 doesn’t look too harsh given what he’s achieved so far and on his impressive win over Emerging Talent at Newbury in February, he has to have a chance. He’s been found by the market though and there are enough doubts on this, his seasonal debut, to make 7/1 look pretty skinny. Most of Skelton’s yard have needed a run first time out and while the ground certainly won’t be fast at Ascot, he could probably do with genuine soft ground to show his best over two miles.
Another to have been well supported this week is Harry Fry’s Jolly’s Cracked It, who dead heated with the re-opposing Sternrubin, who looks to be in the handicapper’s grip now, in this race last season. It was without doubt his best effort to date and it was, in fact, the last time he was seen on a racecourse. The break of a year has to be a concern, as does the 6lb rise he’s been given for that performance, leaving him having to carry 11st 9lb. Although this must have been a long-term target, you’d expect that the horse would improve for a race and being thrown in at the deep end from a career-high mark to start his season is a tough ask.
Nicky Henderson has his usual strong hand in this race, one that he’s won twice in the past seven renewals. Hargam looks as if he’ll find the ground too soft and his welter burden too much to carry, but the 1-2 from the competitive Listed December Handicap at Sandown Park two weeks ago should be in the thick of things again. Brain Power beat his stablemate, Consul De Thaix, by just less than a length that day while giving him 10lb, so having to give 4lb more this time around could tip the scales in the latter’s favour here, despite it looking as if the winner idled a little in front. Consul De Thaix was given a very patient ride that day too, so if he’s positioned closer to the action by Jeremiah McGrath this time, he should be there or thereabouts, even though he’ll be carrying the ‘second string’ silks of owner JP McManus.
Carrying the ‘first’ colours is Paul Nicholls’s Modus, who also gets the services of Barry Geraghty, and this six-year-old ran a belter at Cheltenham to finish second in the Grade 3 Greatwood Hurdle on his last run. It seemed as if he was coming to defeat North Hill Harvey over the last, but just couldn’t get past the gallant winner and a subsequent 5lb rise in the weights looks very fair. He’s a talented individual with plenty of scope for more progress and it’s extremely difficult to envision a race that doesn’t have him challenging towards the business end. Wolf Of Windlesham fell two out when challenging in that same race at Cheltenham and while we don’t know how close he may have gone, he could be an interesting runner too.
However, when it comes to top handicaps, both on the flat and over jumps, when Tony Martin has three entered, you know that at least one of them will have been laid out for it. Pyromaniac always looks as if he might play a hand in this type of race, but I think he’s be better suited by a longer trip, so Quick Jack appears to have better claims, especially with the assistance of the excellent 7lb claimer JJ Slevin. Now rated 112 on the level, his current mark of 148 over hurdles looks like it could be improved upon and he shaped well from the mark in the Galway Hurdle after being hampered two out. A closing sixth of 15 in the Group 1 Prix Royal-Oak when last seen, he’s obviously in great form, has plenty of ability and should be pitching in at the end.
But, officially rated 7lb inferior to anything else in the race, Martin’s GOLDEN SPEAR has snuck in at the bottom of the weights and is a glaringly obvious threat considering he defeated rivals like Nakeeta and Snow Falcon in the Irish November Handicap. Snow Falcon went on to hack up in the Grade 2 Lismullen Hurdle at Navan, defeating Shaneshill, while Rashaan, 9th in the race on the flat, beat Apple’s Jade in the Grade 2 WKD Hurdle at Down Royal – not bad form considering that Gigginstown filly then beat Vroum Vroum Mag. A mark of 125 over hurdles looks as if it could be at least 10lb short of Golden Spear’s true ability given that he won the November handicap off a mark of 87 and is sure to be given a hike for that. On the Snow Falcon line, he’s rated 30lbs inferior to that rival over hurdles – that can’t be a true reflection of his ability. Although he has to prove his jumping is up to scratch and that he is as good over obstacles as he is on the flat, it would be mad to ignore this improving five-year-old creeping in at the bottom of the weights and I’d suggest an investment accordingly.
Advice
GOLDEN SPEAR – 1pt e/w @ 13/2 (bet365)
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12.40 Cheltenham – The Ryman Novices’ Steeple Chase.
There aren’t many novice chases at Cheltenham that don’t attract the big names but this particular contest has a particularly illustrious roll of honour including Don’t Push It, Tidal Bay, Reve de Sivola, Oscar Whisky and More Of That all within the last ten years.Nicky Henderson has won two of the last five renewals and looks to hold all the aces this time round with a third of the six-strong field. Whisper was by far the best of these over hurdles with back-to-back wins in Aintree’s Grade 1 Liverpool Hurdle to his name but he looked well below hitting that level in three runs last term. He was far from convincing on his only chase start to date when turned over at long odds-on at Exeter and although conditions are likely to be in his favour, it would take a very brave man to side with him.
Henderson’s best chance looks to be with the unexposed DIFFERENT GRAVEY who could not have been more impressive when easily accounting for a select but classy field at Ascot on his chasing debut last month. He was highly progressive over hurdles last campaign, hosing up in a competitive handicap at Ascot before paying the price for trying to live with Thistlecrack at Aintree on his final start. He was very few miles on the clock having only raced seven times under Rules (with five wins to his name) and the way he jumped last time out was hugely impressive. That didn’t come as a major surprise given he won his sole start in points but more confirmed the thinking that he is in the top rank of novice chasers this year. His immaturity has been the only thing holding him back in his career as connections believed he had the ability to be an RSA horse last year but he seems to be heading firmly in the right direction and should take a world of beating.
Baron Alco is the one likely to give the selection most to do although he was flattered by the winning margin last time out with his nearest rival Wishing And Hoping crashing out, albeit when looking under pressure. He was steadily progressive over the sticks last campaign and ran a cracker when only narrowly headed by Rock The Kasbah in a Grade 3 handicap at Ascot last January. He made an encouraging start to life over fences when a close-up third in a competitive heat at Cheltenham’s Showcase meeting and looked to benefit from that with a sound round of jumping at Plumpton next time. This is a much sterner test but he has time on his side as an improving five-year-old and should benefit from the step up in trip.
Another to consider is Sizing Tennessee who put in a decent display despite being soundly beaten over course and distance by O O Seven on his chasing debut. The eight-year-old has had his problems but threatened to be a pretty classy bumper horse and hurdler in his time with Willie Mullins and Henry de Bromhead and clearly has the ability to prove competitive at this sort of level. He certainly looks as though he could make up into a chaser and provided his new handler Colin Tizzard can keep him sound, he can pick up a couple of prozes this year even if this one may prove just a bit too tough.
Of the remainder, San Benedeto looks to have a very tough ask conceding weight all round even if conditions are well and truly in his favour. He made hay in the summer but has been found out in this kind of class since returning in the autumn. Zarib will surely come on for his seasonal debut a month ago but has a bit to find with a few of these on his hurdles form and.
Advice
DIFFERENT GRAVEY – 2pts win @ 8/11 (bet365)
12.55 Doncaster – bet365.com Handicap Chase.
Last year’s winner of this race, Sego Success, is back for another crack and with just 2lb more on his back; he has to be very well respected. Alan King’s stayer made a very satisfactory return to action at Bangor a month ago, finishing stoutly behind the re-opposing Valadom, looking as if he’d come on for the first visit to a racetrack since April. He enjoys a flat track and clearly goes well here so plenty looks in his favour. He would probably appreciate a bit of rain overnight and if the ground does turn soft he’d be in with a huge chance, but the combination of the likely good to soft ground and the welter burden he has to carry could leave him vulnerable to a couple of others with a bit too much pace, even though you’d expect him to be staying on at the end.Valadom has done well for Richard Hobson and his Bangor win looks decent form in the context of this race, even though he had a fitness edge on most of his rivals there and got his own way in front. The grey didn’t seem to enjoy his first experience of Aintree when pulled up in the Grand Sefton a week ago, so this return to standard fences and this company should help, but I can’t help but think a mark of 141 might be beyond him now.
After a reappearance pipe-opener over hurdles at Cheltenham, No Duffer should be in good shape to show his best here for Tom George. He’ll have no issues with trip or ground (unless there’s a downpour) and looks a solid contender, even though his mark of 139 is his highest ever by 6lbs and he’ll have to improve again to be winning.
Sue Smith has two in the race, firstly Straidnahanna, who was beaten into fourth in this race last year off a 4lb lower mark and hat indicates to me that he might be facing an uphill task to get his hat into the ring at the business end here. He’s won off 129 and 128 in the last two years, so he might need to come down a few pounds more.
Blakemount is her other entrant and this eight-year-old has only had six runs over fences so far, winning once at Carlisle in March and finishing second on his reappearance this season at Sedgefield over an inadequate 2m 3 ½ furlong trip. He was rated 136 over hurdles and his mark of 134 shouldn’t prove a problem over fences if he can continue his progress over this longer distance – his Grade 2 second behind Urban Hymn over hurdles suggests he’s got more to come over these larger obstacles.
However, Smith isn’t the only one with two in the race – Alan King also runs two and may have a serious contender in his other runner. ZIGA BOY has visited Doncaster twice in his career and won both times, including in the Listed Sky Bet Chase from a mark of 133. Just a seven-year-old, it’s reasonable to expect that he’s improved from that and so a mark of 137 should in no way be a barrier to a good run. Ground that is on the soft side of good is perfect for him and despite unseating after being badly hampered early on in the Becher last time out, he jumps well. His reappearance behind Valadom and Sego Success was promising in that he ran up with the pace throughout and only weakened late on, so you would expect him to have come on a lot for that run and back on this track that he clearly loves, he has to hold some decent each-way claims in a winnable race.
Advice
ZIGA BOY – 1pt win @ 5/1 (Betfair Sportsbook)
1.15 Cheltenham – Raymond Mould Handicap Chase.
This 2m handicap chase looks a competitive enough field with a number of reliable yardsticks in the field.The weights are headed by Nicky Henderson’s Vaniteux who proved himself a high-class novice chaser last term, winning the Grade 2 Lightning Novices’ Chase at Doncaster in January before unseating when looking booked for second in the Arkle at the Cheltenham Festival. He returned to action at Ascot a few weeks ago and despite attracting strong market support, he was a little disappointing, finishing third behind the resurgent Sire De Grugy. His jumping wasn’t too fluent in places which cost him valuable ground but that was his first run back so perhaps he just needed to get that out of his system. I suspect he will be much better with that run under his belt but he looks to have a tough task facing him to defy top weight here.
Just behind him at Ascot was Cold March who was having his first run since finishing last of five in the Grade 2 Dovecote Novices’ Hurdle at Kempton. He took a little while to warm to his job but he was making ground when finding himself short of room on the turn for home and that must have cost him a place or two. He ran all the way to the line to just miss out on fourth spot and having been dropped 1lb by the handicapper on the back of that, he has to come into the reckoning.
Course and distance form can often prove valuable, especially at Cheltenham and with that in mind, we have to acknowledge Savello who won the Grand Annual here in 2014. This year’s renewal was his last try in handicap company and he ran well to finish fourth Solar Impulse. He managed to get back to winning ways the following month at Kelso before running in France on his final start of the campaign. He was unsurprisingly struggling from a long way out in the Shloer Chase last time but the drop into handicap company should help and on his best form, he is weighted to run a big race.
Paul Henderson’s Un Beau Roman managed to get his head in front on the Old Course last month and having been raised 5lb on the back of that effort, he bids to follow up that success here. He showed a fine attitude to wear down the Irish challenger Pairofbrowneyes but whether he can repeat that effort is less clear. In handicapping terms, his new mark shouldn’t be beyond him as he won off 1lb lower in January but this looks a much more competitive affair.
There are few yards going better than Colin Tizzard at present and he saddles SIZING PLATINUM here who may just have found the 2m4f trip stretching his stamina in the BetVictor Gold Cup last time. He looked to be running a nice race until the third last before weakening and this shorter test should be right up his street. It is worth remembering that he was nine lengths clear of the third when chasing home the runaway winner Fox Norton in October and he runs here off just 1lb higher. He looks to have plenty going in his favour and I fancy him to run a big race down in trip.
Of the remainder, Neil Mulholland’s Baltimore Rock makes plenty of appeal having won on his chasing debut at Doncaster last December. He hasn’t won since but he was running quite well when falling two out in the Arkle and he was just outclassed in the Grade 1 Novice Chase at Punchestown in April. He returns on a mark of 144 and having only had the four runs over fences, there could be more to come from this lightly-raced seven-year-old. His absence is the only reason he is passed over as the selection but it would be no surprise to see him run a big race on his return.
The final one to mention is Tom George’s Parsnip Pete who was just run out of it at Newbury by Ultragold a couple of weeks ago. The ten-year-old continues to run consistently well without getting his head in front but he has only been raised 1lb for his latest run. He should run his usual solid race but I suspect there may be a couple of better handicapped horses in the race.
Advice
SIZING PLATINUM – 2pts win @ 9/2 (bet365)
1.30 Doncaster – Bet365 Handicap Hurdle.
This 2m handicap hurdle may have only attracted ten runners but there is plenty to consider including James Ewart’s Aristo Du Plessis who continues to fall down the weights on the back of another below-par effort at Haydock last time. He won a string of races last term but has struggled so far this term although it is possible the heavy ground and the step up in trip were not in his favour last time. A return to two miles and good ground should be more suitable and having been cut some slack by the handicapper, if he bounces back to form he would have a leading chance.Paul Nicholls has a pretty good strike-rate when sending runners up to Doncaster and he saddles All Set To Go here who needs to bounce back from a disappointing run at Huntingdon just over a month ago. Having run a good race behind Wishfull Dreaming at Chepstow on his return, he didn’t jump very well at Huntingdon and I suspect that he is probably a bit high in the weights at present. It wasn’t that long ago that he finished second to Gwafa in the Swinton but he needs a repeat of that effort to figure here.
Alan King also saddles an interesting runner in the shape of Ardamir who was a winner over course and distance in February. His only other run over hurdles saw him pulled up in the Fred Winter next time but returning on a mark of 125, he could be open to further improvement this term. He shouldn’t lack for fitness having been campaigned on the flat through the summer and if the ground stays good, he would be of interest back over hurdles.
Another course and distance winner is Favorite Girl who was narrowly denied a winning return to hurdles at Ascot a few weeks ago. That was a fine effort from the eight-year-old who attempted to make all but just got collared in the closing stages by a progressive rival. She is effectively up 5lb here with Jack Sherwood only claiming 3lb now but she is in fine form at present and she shouldn’t be too far away.
However, the one they may all have to beat is HAWK HIGH who has run some fine races in the last couple of seasons but he has been cut some slack by the handicapper which could give him a leading chance in this contest. He is now just 3lb higher than his last winning mark and he didn’t run a bad race when ninth in the County Hurdle in March. This will be a lot less competitive than that race and his jockey Brian Hughes couldn’t be in better form at present. The key to this six-year-old is good ground which he looks likely to get on Saturday and with him also dropping down in class, I fancy him to take advantage of his reduced handicap mark.
Advice
HAWK HIGH – 1pt win @ 13/2 (Betfair Sportsbook)
1.50 Cheltenham – Caspian Caviar Gold Cup (Grade 3)
With six of the last ten winners of the Caspian Caviar Gold Cup having been aged six or seven, it seems that this is the best age group to follow when searching for the winner. They have just over half of the field this time around including the likes of Kylemore Lough, Quite By Chance, Aso and Thomas Brown.Given the competitive nature of this race, it is little surprise that it is best to side with horses arriving here in good form. In fact, nine of the last ten winners had achieved a top-three finish on their most recent start. Of this year’s field eight failed to make the frame last time leaving Bouvreuil and Aso with something to prove, despite their popularity in the betting market.
Race fitness is also something that has served previous winners well in recent years with only two of the last ten winners having not had at least two runs during the season. There are nine of this year’s line-up who fail to make the mark here, including most of those towards the head of the betting.
Given the undulating nature of the racecourse at Cheltenham, it seems sensible to think that some horses may not be suited by it. Therefore previous Cheltenham form can prove useful as shown by the pattern that eight of the last ten winners had achieved a top-three finish on their previous visits to Prestbury Park. Perhaps surprisingly only six of this year’s field can boast such credentials, those six being Village Vic, Buywise, Module, King’s Odyssey, Bouvreuil and Solar Impulse.
If we narrow the focus on Cheltenham further, we can see that half of the winners in the last decade of this race had taken part in the BetVictor Gold Cup over course and distance. There are five such participants in this year’s renewal, Village Vic (2nd), Buywise (3rd), Aso (4th), Bouvreuil (5th) and Frodon (10th) who will all be hoping to continue this trend with another set of bold displays here.
In terms of weight, 10st 7lb appears to be the benchmark as seven of the last ten winners had carried at least that weight to victory. This eliminates the bottom horse on the racecard, Nicky Henderson’s Full Shift.
The final trend worth a mention is that surrounding the betting and it is not a good sign for favourite backers as this race has been something of a graveyard for market leaders. Only one of the last ten winners was sent off favourite and although the market is still open to change, it is not ideal for the current favourite Bouvreuil .
Shortlist
BUYWISE –6/7
Village Vic – 5/7
Quite By Chance – 5/7
Conclusion
With all of our horses missing at least one of the seven trends, the standout performer is BUYWISE whose only negative is that at the age of nine, he falls foul of the age trend. Other than that he looks to have plenty going in his favour, having run a fine race when third in the BetVictor Gold Cup last month. That was the third time he had finished close up in that race but he just seems to get too far back before running on. Connections will no doubt be hoping that the fitting of a visor for the first-time helps him to travel more fluently. If that is the case then he looks to have a lot going for him and he rates a strong chance.
Just missing out on the top spot is last year’s winner Village Vic who carried a big weight when being collared close home by Taquin Du Seuil in the BetVictor Gold Cup. That came off a mark of 155 and although he finds himself 3lb higher here he has to be considered given his excellent record at the course. He too misses the age trend given he is now nine and with last month’s race having been his first run of the season, he falls short in the two runs department. Having said that he clearly goes well fresh and it would be no surprise to see him in the shake-up twelve months on from last year’s victory.
The final member of the shortlist is Quite By Chance who landed a big pot at the end of October for the in-form Colin Tizzard yard. The seven-year-old doesn’t have any form of note around Cheltenham to date but he turned in a career best when chasing home Sire De Grugy a couple of weeks ago and he deserves a crack at something like this. He has won over as far as 3m in the past so the step up in trip shouldn’t hold any fears for him and with the yard continuing to fire in the winners, he makes some appeal at a slightly bigger price.
Advice
BUYWISE – 0.5pt e/w @ 11/1 (bet365, BetVictor)
2.25 Cheltenham – The Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle Race (Registered as The Bristol Novices’ Hurdle Race) (Grade 2)
Perennially a cracking event, the Bristol has a roll of honour including Albert Bartlett winner Unowhatimeanharry, RSA winner Blaklion and Gold Cup winner Coneygree in the last five years. It remains to be seen whether anything of that class is lining up in this year’s renewal but it still looks a most intriguing contest to try and decipher.Ami Desbois was pitched into some fairly hot company last term and ultimately struggled at this kind of level. He has returned looking like a different horse though and produced a particularly pleasing performance when striking in a Haydock handicap on his latest outing. He is probably more suited to the handicapping sphere at present and looks to have a tough job on his hands back in novice company.
Previous Cheltenham experience has been a good pointer in recent times and especially those heading here on the back of decent efforts in the Grade 2 Hyde Novices’ Hurdle at the Open Meeting. That particular contest is doubly represented this time round by the second and third who look pretty well matched on the form of their two previous runs. Wholestone narrowly holds the edge having defeated West Approach both times and the five-year-old should certainly appreciate the step back up in trip here. He has progressed well since returning in the autumn and boasts the strongest from in the book. As has been proven on their last couple of run-ins though, Tizzard’s charge won’t be far behind but he may just need to pull out a bit extra than he has shown so far and was only a well beaten third in this twelve months ago.
With the field looking so closely matched, those receiving weight gain a bit of an advantage and with that in mind, the selection is NO HASSLE HOFF. The four-year-old escapes a penalty for his win in a Class 5 maiden hurdle at Hereford last month in which he came home with tons in hand. The line-up looked a fairly decent one for a race of its type but he proved to be a class apart as he powered into the lead three out and cruised clear in facile fashion. In truth, he was a winner without a penalty having tipped up at the last when leading by a country mile at Fontwell on his Rules debut but he was still fairly easy to back at Hereford before proving the market badly wrong. This is by far the biggest test he’s faced so far but he looks to be a proper horse and has a great chance if coping with a slightly drier surface than he’s used to.
Fellow penalty escapee Impulsive Star could prove the biggest threat on the back of his win in a Fontwell maiden hurdle. The Irish point winner was snapped up by Robert Waley-Cohen on the back of a good staying effort in a bumper for Caroline O’Brien and duly obliged on his first run on these shores for Neil Mulholland in similar fashion. The step up to three miles will suit him down to the ground and although a step up is required, his attitude so far has hinted that he could well be up to this sort of level.
Anchor Man is the least exposed runner in the field having had just one start in points before making a winning debut for Paul Nicholls at Exeter a month ago. Granted, the form of that run seems to be nothing special but it was the manner in which he put the race two out that was rather impressive and he must come into consideration for all this looks a tough little race.
Advice
NO HASSLE HOFF – 1pt win @ 9/2 (bet365)
3.00 Cheltenham – Stanjames.Com International Hurdle (Grade 2)
The feature race of the day at Cheltenham on Saturday has attracted six runners and the market is headed by My Tent Or Yours who was a shade disappointing on his return to action at Haydock last month. The nine-year-old settled much better than he had done in the past but when the time came to quicken his response was pretty muted. I suspect that the heavy ground was the reason for that as he has always been considered a good ground horse by connections and I don’t think we should judge him too harshly on that run. Having said that I still think around 11/8 is plenty short enough for all he gets weight from all of his rivals as at the age of nine, I’m not entirely sure how much ability he retains.He faces an old rival in the shape of The New One who comes here on the back of an aborted novice chase campaign in which the race he was declared to run was abandoned. Connections have therefore decided to go down this route instead and on his best hurdles form he would have every chance of recording a third victory in the race. My one concern is that this is a pretty strong race for him to come back in and there is a possibility he might just be a little short on his first run since April.
With that in mind I think it is worth taking a chance on MISTER MIYAGI who shaped as though in need of the run at Kempton in October before just failing to reign in Un Temps Pour Tout at Aintree last time. The way he travelled through the Kempton race suggested he would win well but he got tired late on and it cost him. He does have a bit to find with the likes of My Tent Or Yours and The New One but I don’t think we have seen the best of this horse yet and the Dan Skelton yard have really started to hit form in the past couple of weeks. If they were all the same price I suspect I might side with My Tent Or Yours but I think 4/1 about Mister Miyagi is fair enough and I suggest a small win bet.
Another one worthy of a mention is last year’s winner Old Guard who finished behind both My Tent Or Yours and Melodic Rendezvous at Haydock last time. Like Nicky Henderson’s nine-year-old I think the ground was probably slower than ideal up there but he has yet to entirely convince at this level. The conditions of the race are also not in his favour as he has to concede 6lb to Mister Miyagi and 8lb to My Tent Or Yours which could make life tricky.
The field is completed by the two outsiders Court Minstrel and Melodic Rendezvous. The former finished ahead of Mister Miyagi at Kempton but was disappointing when upped in trip last time whilst Jeremy Scott’s veteran would need the ground to be significantly slower for him to be considered a contender.
Advice
MISTER MIYAGI – 1pt win @ 4/1 (Paddy Power, Ladbrokes)
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12.20 Sandown – Barry Rawlings “What A Year” “National Hunt” Novices’ Hurdle.
Ten go to post for this novices’ hurdle, but there’s a few that look like deadwood straight away and it’s difficult to make much of a case for anything outside the first 5 in racecard order.Dashing Oscar carries a penalty for his win at Bangor three weeks ago, which turned out to be a very comfortable win after his stablemate Drumcliff disappointed. Harry Fry’s six-year-old ended up a 13-length winner, but the form of the race doesn’t look very strong and it’s questionable what he achieved, even though it was a nice start to life over hurdles. The penalty may make life a little too difficult for him here, especially amongst some useful and promising rivals.
Also a last-time-out winner, American Gigolo represents Charlie Mann and makes his debut over hurdles having comfortably taken a Wincanton bumper a month ago, defeating a well-fancied Nicholls runner in the process. He’ll enjoy the decent ground that he’ll get here and runs over hurdles rather than try to defy a penalty in a bumper, so doesn’t get hit in the weights. He’ll be relatively unfancied here due to his lesser-known connections and stable, but this relative of Daneking should go well if he takes to obstacles.
Gary Moore targets this meeting year after year and has Crystal Lad to represent him here. His second over C&D behind Khezerabad last month is decent form, especially given he had Alan King’s Azzerti in behind, and you’d think he’d try to put his experience to good use from the front. This ex-pointer will probably need further in time though and may lack the turn of foot to deal with a couple of his rivals here, even though he’s likely to show up very well for a long way.
The two that look as if they’ll have the race between them were both very impressive bumper winners on their last starts and Tom George’s Cruiseaweigh definitely looks like one to keep the right side of. A close second behind the very useful Movewiththetimes on his debut at Wincanton, this five-year-old then stepped up to beat a decent-looking field at Aintree, including Elgin, who went on to boost the form considerably when taking care of Malcolm Jefferson’s useful Dubai Angel in a maiden hurdle at Newcastle last weekend. The five-year-old by Oscar has a lovely pedigree, being out of an Anshan mare from a family of some smart staying chasers, but it does also indicate that he might just need further than this – his trainer, George, spoke of how he’d be looking for a ‘galloping track’ for his hurdle debut over two miles, so despite looking a very useful prospect indeed, he might be tapped for toe by the remaining runner.
Nicky Henderson always does well in decent novice hurdles at this time of year, but his record in this race is staggering. He has trained the winner in each and every of the last seven renewals of this race, so his entry, BARDD, has to be treated with the utmost respect. Caracci Apache, Vaniteux, Tetlami, Master Of The Hall and Clay Hollister all won this race on their hurdling debuts and this four-year-old son of Dylan Thomas could well be the next in line. He has shown significant greenness on his first two runs in bumpers, firstly in finishing second to Laval Noir at Huntingdon when looking as if he was in front too long, and then when winning here at Sandown Park. He defeated Warren Greatrex’s well-backed Potters Approach that day despite being carried left over a furlong out in a slowly-run race and running green when hitting the front, but what was striking was the way he stretched clear when Jeremiah McGrath got him organised. If the penny is dropping and he finds obstacles concentrate him better, he could keep improving at a rate of knots. Among a few types that will ideally want a bit further, I think he’ll track the leaders for most of the race before unleashing his potent turn of foot late on to devastating effect.
Advice
BARDD – 1pt win @ 5/2 (Betfair Sportsbook)
12.30 Aintree – Betfred Watch Sky Sports In Our Shops Handicap Chase.
The switch to fences on good ground resulted in a transformation in form for Dan Skelton’s OLDGRANGEWOOD, and he looks to hold strong claims to make it two from two in his new discipline. During his hurdling career the Skelton’s were always open that this horse was always a chaser for the future, and that they’d look after him over hurdles. That resulted in him running off a mark of 120 at Kempton last time and he duly obliged with any amount in hand. Also, after winning on him at Ayr last season Harry Skelton said ‘he hated the (soft) ground’ and his most recent win was the first time he’d encountered officially good ground since his Irish Point-to-Point win, so he is clearly more at home on a sounder surface. The forecast ground on the Mildmay course at Aintree this weekend is good, good to soft in places, so conditions should be perfect for the son of Central Park. The five-year-old did show a tendency to jump left-handed so it’s no surprise connections have opted to send this horse the other way round, another positive for his chances here. However, there are some question marks, mainly the 10lb higher mark he has to contend with in a better race, but visually he was very impressive at Kempton and he looked as if an extra 10lb wouldn’t have made any difference. The second concern is that this is only his second start over fences (under Rules) and his chasing debut came in a small field, but as touched on before, he is a Point-to-Point winner and is very much a chaser on looks. Overall I think he is the most intriguing horse in the line-up and he’s completely unexposed, so it would be a huge disappointment if he wasn’t bang there fighting out the finish.The obvious danger is Cernunnos for the in-form Tom George stable. He’s slipping down the weights and becoming well-handicapped. He shaped like he was coming back to form at Wincanton last time out, however, that came over an extended 3m2f at Wincanton and the drop in trip looks a strange one to me. He’s also only won one of his 11 starts in Britain, despite consistently being strong in the market. He certainly has the ability to pop up at some stage but he doesn’t represent a viable betting proposition at present.
The Fresh Prince is another contender for the 2015 Grand National winning connections and he could easily put his seasonal debut well and truly behind him. The yard are in much better form than they were in the earlier weeks of the season – 9 of the 12 runners in the past fortnight have finished in the first three – and this son of Robin Des Pres cannot be overlooked easily. Like the selection he is an Irish Point-to-Point winner whose future was always going to lie over fences and a rating of 118 could easily underestimate him. However, my main concern with him is the ground as his Point and Hurdle wins both came on soft ground.
Other than the three I’ve touched on I find it hard to recommend any of the others runners. Baileys Concerto is now 2lbs lower than his last winning mark but recent performances suggest he may need the handicapper to relent a little further before the 10-year-old can be competitive in a race of this nature. Whilst in contrast Formidableopponent, Ballycoe, Cusheen Bridge and Somchine have all being running well recently but now look in the hands of the handicapper as a result.
AdviceOLDGRANGEWOOD – 1pt win @ 5/2 (bet365, BetVictor)
1.00 Aintree – Betfred “Happy 50th John Mckenna” Novices´ Hurdle.
This 2m1f contest often throws up a nice horse with Ballybolley and Agrapart having taken the last two renewals and although we don’t have much to go on, this year’s race also looks to have its fair share of quality.There are two members of the field who already have a victory over hurdles to their name, the first of which is Good Tradition, who has his first start for the Donald McCain yard. Formerly trained in Ireland by Dermot Weld, the five-year-old quickened up smartly to win a maiden hurdle at Kilbeggan in August, after which he was purchased for £13,000 at the sales. His victory came at the fourth attempt over obstacles so he might be open to less improvement than some of his rivals, although Harry Stock takes a useful 7lb off his back.
The only other winner in the race is CHARLEMAR who made a promising start to life over hurdles when winning at Chepstow at the beginning of last month. Harry Whittington has made big strides in a short space of time with a license and this French bumper winner was bought to replace Arzal, who had performed so well for the yard before getting injured last year. He jumped well on the whole on his first start over hurdles especially the last couple when they were really racing and he should have a good chance of defying a penalty. The form of his race has worked out pretty well with the third Criq Rock going close next time and I think his experience could make all the difference here.
However, there are a number of other interesting candidates, most notably Minotaur who has his first start for Jonjo O’Neill on Saturday. The four-year-old had a fine campaign on the flat this term winning four times including a comfortable four length success in a Listed contest on his final start in September. He fetched a whopping 340,000 euros when he went through the sale ring in October and clearly big things are expected of him in this new discipline. I expect he will attract market support and could well go off favourite but with that in mind I would prefer to be on the one with experience and hence I have chosen Charlemar.
Ian Williams’ yard is in fine form at present and he saddles Banditry who shaped with some promise when fifth behind the smart Thomas Campbell at Ascot a couple of weeks ago. He won his last two starts on the flat in October but was given plenty to do on his hurdling debut a couple of weeks ago and he made good late headway under Tom Scudamore. He should be a lot wiser for that outing and it would be no surprise to see him take a big step forward here.
The final one to mention is Dan Skelton’s Atlantic Storm who was unfancied on his hurdling debut at Huntingdon and having been ridden patiently, he weakened late on to finish sixth. He is a half-brother to the smart Tagrita and I’m sure better is expected of him going forward so despite his below-par showing last time, we should learn more about him here.
Advice
CHARLEMAR – 1pt win @ 3/1(bet365, BetVictor)
1.20 Sandown – Pertemps Network Handicap Hurdle (Series Qualifier)
These Pertemps Qualifiers are always competitive races and this one looks no different with a mixture of high-class and improving performers.The weights are headed by Fingal Bay who won the Final of this race two years ago off the same mark as he races today. Since then the ten-year-old has mixed top-class races both over hurdles and fences but there were signs that he was just starting to lose his way towards the end of last season in various combinations of headgear. All of the headgear was left off for his seasonal reappearance at Cheltenham last month and he ran with plenty of promise, just getting tired in the closing stages which was understandable given that was his first outing since April. With normal improvement, he should be right in the mix and with Ciaran Gethings also taking 5lb off his back, he has to be high on any shortlist.
Even with Ciaran Gethings’ claim taken into account, he still has to concede at least 6lb to the rest of the field including Killala Quay who has his first start over hurdles since finishing fifth in the Sefton Novices Hurdle at Aintree in 2014. In the subsequent eighteen months he has done well over fences and landed a Grade 2 last February at Kempton. However, he has already had two runs over the bigger obstacles this season and on both occasions he has been pulled up so he is probably best left alone on this occasion.
Paul Nicholls often does well at this meeting and he saddles Rainy City here who bumped into the smart Emerging Force on his chasing debut in October. Prior to that, he had won two novice hurdles by wide margins in May and June before finishing a close second to the well-regarded Templeross in September. He starts off life in handicaps off a mark of 134 and if he handles the step up in trip, he should be in the shake-up.
There are a couple of last time out winners who come here with strong claims including Sirop De Menthe who showed a fine attitude to hold off the game Red Devil Lads at Ffos Las a couple of weeks ago. He has gone up 5lb for that victory but more of a concern may be this sounder surface as most of his best form has come on soft or heavy ground.
One horse who should appreciate the good to soft ground is Ian Williams’ Blue Rambler who made a winning return to hurdles at Wetherby at the end of October. The six-year-old was fit from running on the flat, having finished sixth in the Cesarewitch earlier in the month and he made a mockery of his hurdles mark, winning with plenty in hand under Brian Hughes. He has been raised 9lb on the back of it but with the step up in trip likely to suit, further improvement can’t be ruled out on just his sixth hurdles start.
However, the one of most interest is ARCTIC GOLD who signed off last season with a win at Ffos Las and he looked capable of being competitive off a mark of 135 when sixth at Cheltenham last time. That was his first run for a while and he looked likely to improve for the run but he was right in the mix until making a mistake at the second last. The handicapper actually dropped him 2lb for that run and his trainer has given him a further helping hand by putting 10lb claimer Tom Humphries on his back. He should relish going back up in trip and with that run now under his belt I think he has a solid each-way chance.
The final one to mention is Charlie Mann’s Some Kinda Lama who seems to have turned a corner of late, having won his last two starts. The latest of those saw him win a handicap off a mark of 118, making just about all and he has to be considered here despite an 8lb rise in the weights. This is clearly more competitive but he doesn’t have much weight on his back and he might have more than a say in the outcome of this race.
AdviceARCTIC GOLD – 1pt e/w @ 8/1 (bet365)
1.35 Aintree – Betfred Becher Chase (HANDICAP }
With nine of the last ten winners aged nine or older, and only six winners younger than nine since 1992, this is not the race to be taking a chance on a younger participant. Just under half the field sit outside this desired bracket including some of the market principals Ucello Conti, Viconte Du Noyer and The Last Samuri amongst them.Perhaps one of the reasons for the limited success of younger runners is that they often have limited experience over the bigger obstacles. Only three of the last ten winners had run in less than 10 chases prior to lining up here and three of today’s field also fall into this category, meaning that Vieux Lion Rouge, One For Arthur and Sizing Coal all look up against it here. All of this trio miss the age trend as well so I would be happy to rule these out of contention at this stage based on the strength of both trends.
Race fitness is something that can also play a big part in this race given the 3m 2f trip and the good to soft ground that runners are likely to encounter. However the fact that eight of the last ten winners had had no more than one run during the current season, it is best to be aware of fresher rivals. The bottom half of the racecard for this race is littered with including the likes of Midnight Prayer, Gas Line Boy, Dare To Endeavour and Cogry.
The weight carried can often make a difference in these staying races and it is interesting to note that only three of the last ten winners carried more than 11st to victory. This would suggest that the top six as they appear in the racecard may struggle under their heavy burdens, however The Young Master and Double Ross get a reprieve as their jockeys’ claims takes them down to the 11st mark.
Given the nature of the fences it is little surprise that good jumpers often do well in this race. In fact, the 2014 winner Oscar Time was the only winner in the last decade to have fallen or unseated more than once during his career. There are nine horses in this year’s field who can be eliminated on this basis with Double Ross, Saint Are, Alvarado and Portrait King amongst them.
Nigel Twiston-Davies is the most successful trainer in this race with five victories to his name courtesy of Indian Tonic (1993), Young Hustler (1995), Earth Summit in 1998 and Hello Bud in both 2010 and 2012. He saddles two runners this time around in the shape of the ten-year-old Double Ross and the seven-year-old Cogry.
With only one winning favourite in the last decade, there is plenty of reason to be optimistic when opposing the market leaders. An average winning SP of around 14/1 also supports this idea as well as the fact that only half of the horses sent off favourite have finished in the first four. It would therefore be wise to factor in the poor record of those towards the head of the market when narrowing down the shortlist.
Shortlist
HIGHLAND LODGE – 6/7
Bob Ford – 6/7
Financial Climate – 6/7
Conclusion
All of our runners miss at least one of the trends but the marginal preference is for HIGHLAND LODGE who bids to become the first back-to-back winner of the race. James Moffatt’s ten-year-old narrowly missed the cut for the Grand National in April and was last seen being pulled up in the Scottish version at Ayr the following week. Having finished eighth in this race in 2014, he improved a good deal to win last year’s race and off just 5lb higher he shouldn’t be too far away this time around. Clearly his fitness has to be taken on trust but he looks to have plenty going in his favour once again and he should be right in the shake-up.Narrowly missing out on the top spot is Bob Ford who isn’t the easiest to predict but on his day he is a pretty smart performer. Rebecca Curtis’ nine-year-old fell for the first time under rules in the Welsh National last season but he is an otherwise sound jumper so he shouldn’t have too many problems around here. He is just 2lb above his last winning mark and with Jonathan Moore taking a valuable 3lb off his back, if he is in the right frame of mind, he could outrun his sizeable odds.
The final member of the shortlist is Financial Climate who will be racing from 6lb out of the handicap. Oliver Sherwood’s nine-year-old ran a fine race in this last year and might have finished closer but for suffering interference at the elbow. He hasn’t shown much form since but there were signs of a return to form on his comeback at Chepstow a couple of weeks ago and he too could run better than his odds suggest.
Advice
HIGHLAND LODGE – 0.5pt e/w @ 25/1 (Paddy Power)
2.25 Sandown – Jumeirah Hotels And Resorts December Handicap Hurdle (Listed).
An interesting Listed Handicap Hurdle with sixth of the 10 runners trading between 11/2 and 6/1 in the early betting exchanges. Zubayr tops the weights and is one of the fancied runners, but for me he may need a step up in trip to be seen at his best. Despite being in receipt of 9lbs he was readily outpaced by Sceau Royal before falling in the Elite Hurdle, and it would be some performance to give weight away all-round here.Brain Power comes next for Nicky Henderson, and he was steadily progressive last season but probably needed the run first time out in the Greatwood three weeks ago. He should strip fitter for that outing but I have the feeling he will bump find one or two too good here. The same can also be said for Bertimont who ran okay after a long layoff at Ascot a fortnight ago. He has smart form in the book and does look over-priced at 20/1, but with this coming just two weeks after such a long absences he is overlooked on this occasion.
Consul De Thaix is certainly an interesting contender, and a second representative for the Nicky Henderson stable who have won three of the last ten renewals. He only has three starts to his name, two of which have come on British shores at Cheltenham. He ran well in a warm Triumph Hurdle trial before finishing 10th of 15 in the main event at the Festival. He is a horse I will be keeping my eye on but I’d like to see how he fares here first.
Wishfull Dreaming made an impressive seasonal debut at Chepstow before somewhat disappointing when well-fancied for a race at Cheltenham soon after. It’s a feasible excuse that the race came too soon, however this is a much deeper race than the Chepstow event. He has also been raised 7lbs by the assessor, and whilst he could well cope with the rise he looks short enough in the betting for me.
This leads me to one at a similar price but could well be a cut above his rivals, and that’s Dan Skelton’s INDIETIR. He makes his first start since arriving from France and a mark of 141 could well underestimate his ability. He was second on his most recent start, finishing ahead of the smart Device, who has won six of his next eight starts (would have been seven had he not fallen at the last most recently). There is an element of guess work as to the strength of his French form but his new handler has confessed ‘he’s a very good horse’ with ‘a lot of speed’. He beat Voix Du Reve in a match race during his time across the channel and that rival fell when with every chance in the Fred Winter, and was second at Sandown next time out off a mark of 144, which suggests to me that the selection is fairly treated off 141 here.
Graasten is another fancied runner for the Moore family. Gary’s runners always warrant respect at this meeting but he would need to step up markedly from his recent success in a Maiden Hurdle at Plumpton. He does have a featherweight, but I can’t see him beating some of these promising types.
Advice
INDIETIR – 1pt win @ 11/2 (Boylesports, William Hill, RaceBets)
3.00 Sandown – Betfair Tingle Creek Steeple Chase (Grade 1)
With the non-declaration of Douvan, this Grade 1 looks wide open and there are four real contenders to the prize. Sir Valentino will have to improve hand over fist to be competitive here, while Vibrato Valtat needs to find the best part of 10lbs to hit the frame and Paul Nicholls will be hoping that first-time cheekpieces can help.Sire De Grugy heads the four obvious contenders and after his runaway handicap win off top-weight at Ascot last week, he looks like he’s bang in form for his Tingle Creek hat-trick bid. Winner in 2013, his double came up last year, where he held off Special Tiara in somewhat controversial fashion. That race looks much weaker than this year’s renewal, so he’ll have to improved again to go in here, even though his race fitness and love of Sandown could count for plenty. However he’s a ten-year-old now, and only one other ‘veteran’ has ever won the race in double figures, Moscow Flyer – to say Sire De Grugy is not in the same league is rather an understatement. He should run his usual game race, but there could be one or two too good.
Stablemate Ar Mad was an extremely exciting novice last season and his win in the Henry VIII sticks in the memory as one of the most spot on rounds of front-running and jumping that I’ve seen at Sandown Park. However, injury ruled him out of a crack at the Arkle and this will be his first run in 292 days – moving from Novice company to Grade 1 open company is a tough enough task without having to prove you’re injury-free and fit as well. Joshua Moore has already said he’ll come on for the run and I expect that even though it’ll be impossible to curtail his impressive bold instincts, he might do too much early and get picked up later on in the race.
In amongst the furore about Douvan’s non-declaration, I think it’s rather been missed that Willie Mullins has still sent over a four-time Grade 1 winner in Un De Sceaux to contest this race and the available prices of 15/8 are pretty generous considering that he’s only been beaten by Sprinter Sacre over fences when he’s stood up. Obviously, there is always the danger of him falling given his exuberant style and how tough the fences can be here at Sandown Park, but the bare fact that he’s never finished behind any of these rivals is an important one. Another worry could be that Ar Mad will take him on up front and those two could burn themselves out, but he’s been taken on before and left rivals in his dust. On all known form, he’s a strong recommendation.
If there’s one that might upset the Mullins applecart, it could be Tom George’s high-quality chaser, God’s Own. He’s run well in two competitive affairs over two and a half miles so far this season without winning, but the combination of that further trip and the extra weight he’s had to carry, courtesy of his excellent successes in Grade 1’s at Aintree and Punchestown at the end of last season, stopped him from entering the winners’ enclosure. Back at two miles and not having to give weight to anything, he could be a real dark horse considering he had Vautour behind him in the spring – there is the suspicion that he’s a spring horse, but he’s high-class at any time of year and could be the surprise if Un De Sceaux fails to run to form.
Advice
UN DE SCEAUX – 2pts win @ 15/8 (Paddy Power, BetVictor -
TINGLE CREEK CHASE TRENDS 2016 - 3/12/2016 [ thanks to racecaller for use of these trends ]
Based on trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
- French bred aged 5 to 7 or Irish bred aged 9 or 10
- Finished in first 3 last time (posting RPR of 164+)
- Ran in past 40 days (or won grade 1 chase at 2016 Cheltenham Festival)
- Previously won a grade 1 chase
- Previously won a chase by 10 lengths or more
- Previously won at Sandown (or having first course start)
- Won 2015 Tingle Creek, 2016 Game Spirit and/or 2016 Celebration Chase
- Finished in first 4 in Champion Chase, Maghull, Arkle and/or Wayward Lad Novices' Chase
- Finished in first 3 in Haldon Gold Cup and/or Shloer Chase last time
- From the first 3 in the betting (no bigger than 6/1, favourite does well)
- Trained by Paul Nicholls or Gary Moore
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1.30 Newbury – Sir Peter O´Sullevan Memorial Handicap Chase.
This 2m6f looks a competitive one with a number of contenders coming in here in top form. The weights are headed by Evan Williams’ On Tour who finished last season by finishing eighth behind Ballyalton at the Cheltenham Festival. He didn’t look particularly well handicapped on that occasion but he turned in a fine effort on his return at Aintree earlier this month, chasing home Thomas Brown. He is entitled to improve for that initial outing and with the Williams yard in better form at present, it would be no surprise to see him in the shake-up once again here.There aren’t many yards who have had more winners than Colin Tizzard in the last month and he saddles Gentleman John here. The eight-year-old has been on the go through the summer but he has found his best form in recent weeks, winning at Wincanton at the end of October before following up at the same venue a couple of weeks later. He was perhaps a little fortunate that Southfield Theatre came down at the last on the most recent of those runs but has still been raised 6lb by the handicapper. That could make life more difficult for him here and he is passed over as a result.
Gary Moore is always a man whose runners deserve a second look, especially in handicap company and there will be few easier winners at Ascot than Antony who turned his latest race into a precession when winning at the end of last month. That was the six-year-old’s second win in quick succession and he is clearly improving rapidly but it will be interesting to see how he fares with another 8lb on his back. One thing I noticed last time was his tendency to jump left which suggests that Newbury should suit him better and I find it hard to see him finishing out of the frame.
One of the more interesting runners in the field is IN THE ROUGH who has taken a while to get the hang of chasing but got off the mark in good style at Uttoxeter back in September. He was pitched into handicap company at Carlisle next time and travelled well for much of the way under Barry Geraghty but just seemed to be outstayed by his two rivals. That was over 3m2f so it is no surprise that connections have opted to drop him back in trip for this assignment. The Jonjo O’Neill stable is starting to fire out the odd winner and I suspect that this test will suit the unexposed seven-year-old. He also looks likely to run in the colours of Sir Peter O’Sullevan on Saturday, now in the possession of JP McManus and I fancy him to run a big race dropped back in trip.
Another interesting contender is Waldorf Salad who turned in some fine efforts from the front as a novice last term. He found the 4m National Hunt Chase stretching his stamina in March but he finished the season in style, winning off a mark of 131 at Chepstow in April. He races off just 4lb higher here and with Charlie Deutsch likely to make a bold bid from the front, you wouldn’t want to give this strong stayer too much rope back in trip.
Of the remainder, Charlie Longsdon’s Tjongejonge was a ready winner on his return to action at Market Rasen and despite going up 12lb, he could be open to further improvement. Whilst Warriors Tale’s run was too bad to be true last time and he could easily bounce back for the Paul Nicholls stable.
Advice
IN THE ROUGH – 1pt e/w @ 7/1 (bet365, SkyBet)
1.55 Doncaster – Hennessy Betting at 188BET Chase (A Novices’ Limited Handicap)
An interesting looking Novices’ Handicap Chase in which I’m willing to take a chance on SHANROE SANTOS each-way with just the nine runners. Thought highly enough of by connections to take his chance in the Albert Bartlett at the Festival in 2015 his future has always looked to lie over the larger obstacles and he should be capable of winning races off his current handicap mark of 128. His well-being has to be taken on trust having been off the track since pulling up at Ayr 589 days ago, but he achieved a rating of 135 over hurdles so should be competitive here if fit and well. The yard has also been going well from a select number of runners, sending out two winners from eight runners in the past fortnight. This son of Definite Article also won first time out for connections which bodes well, albeit that came at a much lower level. Another positive is that he was a comfortable winner of an Irish Point-to-Point before joining Lucy Wadham for £50,000 so I’m hopeful jumping won’t be too much of an issue and could be over-priced at 25/1.There are plenty of others who look to hold strong claims, including four last time out chase winners, Veins Chercher being the most appealing of those for the Brian Ellison yard. He turned over the smart hurdler Blue Heron on his UK chasing debut, which looked impressive at the time. However, the runner-up was said to have needed the run after a long lay-off and has subsequently disappointed since, giving the impression he’s not the horse he once was. On that basis I think Ellison’s charge could be have been slightly flattered and will probably require a better performance to take this.
Drumlee Lad won by 17-lengths on his chasing debut and whilst he probably would have won had his nearest pursuer not fallen at the last, a mark of 121 seems pretty high given his hurdles mark is 113. I’dliketheoption is another last time out winner and represents powerful connections but he hasn’t looked the most natural chaser, so I’m willing to take him on.
Cusheen Bridge is a consistent sort and won off 125 at Market Rasen nine days ago, but after seven chase starts I’d suggest he was vulnerable to something less exposed here. On that note both Gold Present and Bigpipenotobacee have to be closely monitored in the betting for the Henderson and George yards respectively. The former lost his way over hurdles in the spring but is well-bred and has to be respected, especially if the market speaks in his favour. Whilst the latter has yet to win a race, he was going well when bought down at the second last in his final start between the flags and is one to watch, but he may be one for another day.
Fionn Mac Cul is the final contender I must touch on for Venetia Williams. He won two of his four starts over hurdles and like many of the yard’s horses, will come into their own over fences. However, I’m going to swerve the son of Oscar here as the stable are yet to hit full gear (six of the seven favourites or joint-favourites the yard have run in the last fortnight have been beaten), and both of his wins have come on heavy ground.
Advice
SHANROE SANTOS – 0.5pt each-way @ 25/1 (Betfair)
2.05 Newbury – bet365 Handicap Hurdle.
With a varied and diverse mix of contenders, this race looks a decent contest with everything from four-year-old handicap debutants to ten-year-old stalwarts in this kind of company.
Gibralfaro sits in the aforementioned category and makes his open handicap debut after finishing 15 lengths behind Sceau Royal at Cheltenham and just beaten by two and a half lengths in a four-year-old handicap at Chepstow to start his season. Both of those races were over two miles and both performances seemed to suggest that this step up in trip to two and a half would suit quite nicely. He’s got plenty of ability and his handler, Alan King, is always adept at placing horses in the right place, but he wilted in the Triumph Hurdle in March and he does have quite a high mark for his introduction to this more experienced company.
Another four-year-old who’s an interesting entrant is Favorito Buck’s for Paul Nicholls. A comprehensive Listed three-year-old hurdle winner on his only start in France, he failed to show his ability when pulled up in a Juvenile Hurdle won by Gibralfaro at Kempton last December and was then well-beaten at Newbury in March in a modest-looking Juvenile Hurdle. The horse will have strengthened up this summer and we could see a totally different animal here, but even though he went off a well-backed favourite for both of those disappointing runs and more was clearly expected, he’s not really a backable proposition until he shows something better, especially off a very harsh looking mark of 137.
At the other end of the scale, Gassin Golf has plenty of experience in this type of race, running more than creditably on more than a few occasions. He finished second in the Imperial Cup of 2014, second in a Punchestown Novice Hurdle won by the high-class Arctic Fire, third in the 2015 Imperial Cup off a mark of 132 and won a valuable Handicap Hurdle here over two miles off the same mark as today, 135. Clearly, Kerry Lee’s charge is a horse that looks set to run his usual game race, but this step up in trip is a worry. His record over more than two miles reads: PU 3 5 3 PU, so he might be best watched until he returns to two miles.
Nigel Twiston-Davies’ Robinshill is in some excellent form at the moment, winning both of his runs this season in the style of a very well-handicapped horse. His last win, at Huntingdon, can be marked up further considering he was outpaced and then ran on well, despite hanging, to pick up a useful-looking Dan Skelton inmate in the closing stages. The penny is starting to drop with this son of Robin Des Champs and off just 5lb higher than for that win, he has to go down as a big threat. The trip is an unknown but his breeding and run style suggests he should be fine with it, but a bigger concern would be the ground if it stayed on the soft side. Both of his wins came on good ground and there might just be some stouter stayers over this trip on ground with a little juice in it.
Battle Born is an intriguing contender – off the track for 772 days, he was an exciting novice when last seen, hacking up on his hurdling debut at Uttoxeter with the likes of Champagne At Tara 12 lengths in arrears. That horse is rated 135 over hurdles now, so if Charlie Longsdon’s charge retains all of his ability after such a long time off, his mark of 126 here will be woefully inadequate. However, it’s much more likely that this will serve as a fact-finding mission for Longsdon and I doubt that the horse will be subject to any harsh treatment in the closing stages if (and when) he gets tired, so while he might be best watched here, keeping him in the notebook for the future could well pay off handsomely if he’s anywhere near the animal he was two years ago.
Another who could be nicely handicapped is the Philip Hobbs-trained Onefitzall, who ran on promisingly at the end of a two and a half mile handicap hurdle at Carlisle behind the smart Definitly Red. His jumping could do with some brushing up and he’ll probably relish three miles and a fence later on in his career, but a mark of 133 certainly looks a workable one for the time being. The Indian Danehill gelding has plenty more progress to come and shouldn’t be ruled out, but there’s another with plenty of ability and improvement to come that I can’t overlook.
Dan Skelton’s BORN SURVIVOR was well-fancied in the market for last week’s Fixed Brush Hurdle at Haydock before he was taken out at declarations. Although it seemed the logical race for this embryonic chaser to go for, it now seems a good move after the race was run in some extremely energy-sapping conditions and could have made the horse leave his season there. This is an easier task, despite having to carry 11st 11lb from a mark of 141, and with the track, trip and ground looking as if they’ll be perfect for him; he’s a rock-solid contender. His seasonal reappearance behind a handicap blot in Massini’s Trap was more than satisfactory and given the way that Skelton’s runners have been coming on plenty for a run this year, a 2lb higher mark should be no problem at all. The King’s Theatre gelding is hugely well thought of, especially when it comes to going chasing next season, so in a weaker race than his last run at Aintree, he should be very hard to beat.
Advice
BORN SURVIVOR – 1pt win @ 4/1 (bet365, BetVictor)
2.20 Newcastle – Weatherbys Stallion Book Chase (A Novices´ Limited Handicap)
Only six runners for this race but Sandy Thomson’s Seldom Inn sets a pretty good standard having chased home Onenightinvienna at Carlisle earlier this month. A wide margin winner of a novice chase at Kelso in October, his jumping just let him down against his more experienced rival last time and back in novice company, he sets a pretty high standard for the rest to beat.The only other member of the field with chasing experience is Gully’s Edge who was fourth of five at Carlisle earlier this month. Having won twice over 3m over hurdles last year it is possible that he might just have found the 2m4f test a bit sharp for him and so this step up in trip should be more suitable for him. He does have to improve a bit on that form if he is to have a say here but the yard are in fine form at present and it would be folly to rule him out.
However, the one who attracts most interest is CALETT MAD who has his first start for the Nigel Twiston-Davies stable tomorrow. Previously trained in France by Francois Nicolle, this four-year-old finished in the first four on all three of his starts and his final effort in a Listed hurdle twelve months ago showed a lot of promise. He is a half-brother to the smart chaser Ar Mad and as a four-year-old he gets a useful weight allowance, which means he carries 10st 8lb rather than the 11st 3lb that Dan Emmett, who is also rated 130 has on his back. Clearly we have to take quite a bit on trust but the indications are that this four-year-old is highly-rated and it would be no surprise to see him get off the mark at the first time of asking here over the bigger obstacles.
Of the remainder of the field, Bigirononhiship is perhaps most feared having won an Irish point at the second time of asking in May 2015. He made a winning debut over hurdles last year before bumping into the smart Tomngerry on two occasions and given his background, you would have to think that chasing will be his game.
Advice
CALETT MAD – 1pt win @ 5/2 (bet365, SkyBet)
2.30 Doncaster – Rugby Betting at 188BET Intermediate Handicap Hurdle.
Neil Mulholland is a trainer I rate highly and SLEEP EASY looks to have an excellent chance to make it 2-3 over hurdles. A progressive stayer on the Flat for Hughie Morrison this son of Rip Van Winkle looks a nice recruit having progressed to a rating of 82 before joining his new connections. His two runs over timber so far have been encouraging too. A winner on his hurdling debut at Stratford, he then stepped up on that to finish 3rd under a penalty behind the smart, Movewiththetimes, who ran with great credit against some of the most promising British Novice Hurdlers at Cheltenham next time out. This horse gave Movewiththetimes 7lbs at Fontwell so to get within less than five lengths of him rates as a very decent performance. The handicapper has since given him a mark of 132 which is fair enough, but James King takes off a valuable 7lbs. Many of you may not be aware of Mr King but he is a more than capable pilot. The 20-year-old has ridden 17 Point-to-Point winners, and 15 under Rules, two of which have come for Mulholland. His claim could prove a vital asset here and I would be very surprised if he didn’t win, or go very close to winning.Our Thomas is an obvious danger having travelled well before weakening in the closing stages and should strip fitter here. Tim Easterby’s charge also has some smart juvenile form in the book and if his jumping has improved he could easily go well. My main concern is that he hasn’t managed to get his head in front since his hurdling debut and his yard have only had one winner of jumps this season.
Of the others Mystic Sky and Unison arrive here in good form and should run their respective races but I don’t think either are well-handicapped, so should find something less exposed and too good on the day. Seven Kingdoms has a lot to prove after bolting up on his British debut in January and having pulled up on his seasonal debut at Chepstow 49 days ago, can only be watched here.
Elsewhere, it’s too early to write off Dan Skelton’s Applesandpierres but having run no sort of race last time out at Wetherby, when going off favourite, it requires a big leap of faith to back him here. Whilst, Cornborough rattled off two wins earlier in the year but could still be in the hands of the handicapper off a 2lb higher mark than his latest win.
Advice
SLEEP EASY – 1pt win @ 7/2 (Betfair Sportsbook)
2.40 Newbury – bet365 Intermediate Hurdle (A Limited Handicap)
Four-year-olds have won five of the last ten renewals of this race, including three of the last four and it could pay to focus on the juvenile graduates here. Nicky Henderson also has a good record in recent years, winning four of the last ten, making it no surprise to see Omessa Has vying for favouritism. However, it’s hard to make a strong case for her on form having had just one run in these shores, one which yielded a disappointing effort at Cheltenham in April when sent off a 13/2 shot. It was reported that she finished lame on that occasion, so can be forgiven that effort, but having won just one of her eight starts in France it’s very hard to know how well-handicapped she. On that basis I’m not prepared to find out by backing her at an incredibly skinny 3/1.That leads me to the two other four-year-olds in the line-up and preference is for TOMMY SILVER, for Paul Nicholls, who won the race in 2011 with Rock On Ruby. A winner of the Listed Scottish Triumph Hurdle Trial, he was sent off a 25/1 shot for the main event at the Festival, faring well to finish 7th just behind Clan Des Obeaux (an impressive winner on Friday’s card). That was a good effort, as was his subsequent run at Sandown when he was a close-up 3rd off a mark of 138. His seasonal reappearance came in the Welsh Champion Hurdle, and whilst it was disappointing that he could only finish fifth of six, he was very keen and it was no surprise that he didn’t see out his race. He’s been given plenty of time (42 days) to recover from that and I think we will see a much better horse here. He proved at Sandown that he can be competitive off this mark and at 6/1 he I think he represents value against the front three in the betting.
Who Dares Wins is the third and final four-year-old in the field but he finished behind Tommy Silver in the Triumph and has to prove his early fall at Cheltenham two weeks ago hasn’t dented his confidence. For those reasons I’m willing to swerve Alan King’s challenger, especially at a a similar price to the selection.
Philip Hobbs won the race last year with Sternrubin and his five-year-old Ozzie Oscar is prominent in the betting having won well last time out at Wetherby, taking his record to 4-5 over hurdles. That was a good performance giving 8lbs to Zipple Black, who has since run well behind the promising Lough Derg Spirit. He’d be the one I fear most but this is another step up in class and I’m willing to take pass him over at 3/1 given we haven’t seen him run in handicap company.
Of the others Ritual Of Senses bled last time out so did well to finish third. However, this is a tough introduction for his seasonal bow and may appreciate a stiffer test in time. Theligny comes here in the search of a four-timer but a 5lb rise in a better race is likely to find him out. And Holly Brush Henry could easily out-run odds of 18/1 reverting back to hurdles, but has no margin for error of 139, 5lbs higher than his last winning mark.
Advice
TOMMY SILVER – 1pt win @ 6/1 (Ladbrokes)
2.55 Newcastle – stanjames.com Fighting Fifth Hurdle (Grade 1)
The Fighting Fifth takes centre stage on the Newcastle card, and whilst it looks a fairly weak affair for the grade it doesn’t make it any less intriguing, especially from a betting perspective. Recent history has suggested quality often comes to the fore with eight of the last ten renewals going to the first two in the betting and I certainly think the top two in the market are the ones to focus on.Firstly, if you had been shown the six declared runners at the end of last season, Apple’s Jade would be a warm order to take this on the back of devastating wins at Aintree and Punchestown. However, an early season defeat by the 131-rated Rashaan in Grade 2 WKD Hurdle has suddenly given the one-time strong Champion Hurdle fancy something to prove. Bryan Cooper has also opted to partner Gigginstown’s other runner which is a strong indication as to Apple’s expectations. Gordon Elliott came out after the race and indicated the four-year-old would probably be stepped up in trip and I wouldn’t be interested in backing her until this happens, especially at 11/4(as short as 2/1 in places).
As touched on before, retained Gigginstown jockey Bryan Cooper has opted to ride Petit Mouchoir for the red hot Henry De Bromhead stable. It’s not hard to see why either after an eye-catching seasonal return behind Apple’s Jade. Not a lot went right that day and he may have even gone close to winning but for a a terrible mistake at the last flight. His close seconds in Grade 1 novice company at the end of last season show this son of Al Namix is still progressing and this assignment will tell us more as to where he stands for the rest of the season. But like Apple’s Jade, I think he will be suited by further in time.
This leads me on to the selection and SCEAU ROYAL, who arrives here in the form of his life. He was an above average juvenile at the start of last season and can be forgiven disappointing efforts at Cheltenham and Aintree, as Alan King’s yard were under a cloud at the time. It was therefore pleasing to see this son of Doctor Dino bounce back to form at Cheltenham in October. That performance was very eye-catching as he tanked through the race and quickened in the style of a seriously good horse when Daryl Jacob asked him to go and win the race. It was then a similar story at Wincanton in the Elite Hurdle when he gave his rivals weight and a beating. Again travelling well, he picked up stylishly when Jacob popped the question, quickly putting the race to bed. Zubayr may have fallen at the last but Sceau Royal had his measure, and this was a very good performance giving the Paul Nicholls horse 9lbs. The return to slower ground won’t be an issue either, and Daryl Jacob even said it was as quick as he’d want it last time out a Wincanton. This horse has some turn of foot, and travels well in his races too, the perfect attributes for a two-miler, and it will be a surprise if his rivals can match him. The 9/4 on offer is very appealing, especially given he has the least to prove at present, and for me he’s the one they all have to beat.
Irving can’t be overlooked lightly as he bids for his second victory in the race having won it back in 2014. His disappointing effort in the race last year can easily be ignored as it came on the back of two quick runs. He always goes well fresh, so this is the time of year to catch him, but at eight approaching nine, his best days are likely to be behind him and I find it hard to see him beating an improving and race-fit Sceau Royal.
Hidden Cyclone and Mirsaale complete the line-up and it would be a big shock if either were to come out on top. The former could easily make the frame going from the front but looks vulnerable on these terms nonetheless. As for the latter, whilst he is an admirable performer under both codes, he is rated 20lbs lower than Sceau Royal and Irving, and is playing for place money at best.
Advice
SCEAU ROYAL – 2pts win @ 5/2 (Paddy Power, BetVictor)
3.10 Newbury – Hennessy Gold Cup Chase.
One of the most important factors associated with the Hennessy Gold Cup is proven stamina especially given the demanding nature of the test that the twenty runners are likely to face. Only Madison Du Berlais and Many Clouds had not previously recorded a victory over 3m or further prior to coming here. Of this year’s field, the only one with question marks over his stamina is Regal Encore whose sole success over fences came over 2m1f at Plumpton in December. He was beaten just three-quarters of a length over 3m1f at Punchestown last timebut he still has to prove he has the stamina for this sort of a test.
With six of the last ten winners of the Hennessy taking part in their second season over fences, it is advisable to follow this group of horses. These horses tend to improve between their first and second season chasing and are often able to exploit their handicap mark at this time of year. This applies to many of those towards the head of the market with the likes of Native River, Blaklion and Vyta Du Roc all embarking on their second season over the bigger obstacles.
This also means that younger horses have tended to do well here over the years. To narrow it down, six and seven-year-olds have been the group to follow having been successful in seven of the last ten renewals, with the seven-year-olds accounting for five of those victories. Only eight of this year’s field fall into the desired bracket, the seven seven-year-olds Un Temps Pour Tout, Blaklion, Saphir Du Rheu, Vicente, Aubusson, Coologue and Vyta Du Roc and the sole six-year-old in the race, Native River.
Good recent form is also something that has stood horses in good stead over the years, in fact eight of the last ten winners had achieved a top-three finish on their most recent start. It is probably fair to say that this is usually more a reflection of their ability than race fitness, with the likes of Trabolgan, State Of Play and Denman all having won this race on their seasonal debut. Nevertheless just under half of the field come here with the desired form credentials although the likes of Smad Place, Blaklion and Houblon Des Obeaux all fall at this obstacle.
Although it would be easy to think that a lower weight would be better, time has proven that may not be the case as eight of the last ten winners have carried 11st or more to victory. This is a strong trend and those falling on the right side of the divide this year are the top five as they appear in the racecard, so from Smad Place down to Blaklion.
The final factor to warrant some consideration is the strength of the betting market in recent years. Eight of the last ten winners of the Hennessy have come from the first six in the betting and therefore those towards the head of this year’s market should be favoured. There is scope to look for value in the race but with only two winning SPs greater than 10/1, it would be sensible not to look too far away from the market principals.
Shortlist
NATIVE RIVER – 6/6
Un Temps Pour Tout – 6/6
Blaklion – 5/6
Vyta Du Roc – 5/6
Conclusion
With all things considered, we have two horses which are very difficult to split at the head of the affairs, with each matching all six of our big race trends.The one who gets the nod is NATIVE RIVER who looked a horse on the upgrade when winning the Grade 2 Novice Chase at this meeting twelve months ago. Colin Tizzard’s six-year-old went on to win in Grade 1 company at Aintree in the spring, following a fine run behind Minella Rocco in the four miler at the Cheltenham Festival. He looks to have had this race as a target for some time and he comes here with race fitness on his side, having finished second over hurdles at the end of last month. Second season chasers have tended to fare well in recent years and he looks to have plenty going in his favour here.
Narrowly missing out on the top spot is David Pipe’s Un Temps Pour Tout who chased home Native River both here and at Aintree last season. On the second occasion, they were racing off level weights which suggests that Pipe’s seven-year-old might find it difficult to concede 3lb to his younger rival. A ready winner of a handicap at the Cheltenham Festival, he races off 10lb higher here but he might not be done improving just yet.
Nigel Twiston-Davies’ Blaklion also makes the shortlist having missed just one trend, courtesy of his fourth place finish in the Charlie Hall Chase in October. It is easy to excuse him that effort when you consider that the horses who finished in front of him that day were Irish Cavalier, Menorah and Cue Card, who would all have leading chances were they running here. He too has a bit to find with Native River on their Aintree form but it is possible that his win in the RSA may just have taken the edge off him. His trainer is adept at placing his horses and it would be no surprise to see this seven-year-old run a big race.
The final member of the shortlist is Vyta Du Roc who represents the Nicky Henderson stable, who have won this race twice in the last four years. The seven-year-old seemed to relish the step up to three miles when winning the Reynoldstown Chase at Ascot in February and on a line through Minella Rocco, that puts him quite close to Native River. The ground was too quick for him in the RSA but he finished the campaign with a fine run in the Scottish National, where he finished fifth. The major advantage he has is that he gets nearly a stone from Native River and with a prep run under his belt, I find it hard to see him being out of the shake-up.
Advice
NATIVE RIVER – 1pt win @ 6/1 (Betfred, Paddy Power)
3.30 Newcastle – At The Races Rehearsal Handicap Chase (Listed Race)
In terms of the ‘box-office’, Bristol De Mai is the big name in this year’s renewal of this stayers’ handicap and on class alone, he’d have a favourite’s chance here. An excellent second place in the JLT Novices’ Chase at the Cheltenham Festival and a brilliant performance in running away with the Grade 1 Scilly Isles Novices’ Chase at Sandown Park are the best pieces of form in the field, but this is his first run in handicap company and his first over this three mile trip. The distance would be a major concern for a horse that has never really been considered as a stayer, but as more a middle distance type with a turn of foot. His reappearance run behind Seeyouatmidnight over two and a half miles was promising until the third last, where he jumped into the back of his rival and weakened from there, so he should be plenty sharper now but the trip looks like it will stretch him to his limit, especially given the competition he would have for the lead.One who will certainly not have an issue with the three miles is Kerry Lee’s Bishops Road, who won on his first two starts for Lee, including in the Grade 3 Grand National Trial at Haydock in desperate conditions. He unseated at the first in the Topham Chase after just missing the cut for the Grand National itself, before falling at the first in the Bet365 Gold Cup at Sandown. Clearly then, jumping is an issue and a summer break will have to have remedied whatever it was that was going wrong, not mentioning the ground will also be quicker than for his best performances in the past.
Definitly Red is a seven-year-old that has the potential to rank highly in the three-mile handicap chasing division this season, especially off a mark of 142, 5lb lower than his hurdles mark. Being beaten into second by two and three-quarter lengths by Black Hercules and eight lengths by Blaklion is some very useful form indeed and despite disappointing in the four-miler at the Festival, he bounced back to win a Listed chase over two and a half miles at Ayr next time out. His hurdles win on his first run this season was very encouraging, Brian Ellison’s yard is in great form at the moment and he can go well here off a mark of 142. However, he’s been well-found in the market and the 3/1 generally on offer doesn’t jump out as great value given that this is his first run amongst some battle-hardened handicappers in conditions that may be softer than ideal over this trip.
Last year’s winner, Wakanda, lines up here off a 7lb higher mark than 12 months ago, but just 1lb higher than the mark he won the Listed Silver Cup from at Ascot two weeks later. The seven-year-old is a tough, hardy horse for Sue Smith and if getting his own way in front, is a danger to all in the race. However, his reappearance run in the Charlie Hall at Wetherby was distinctly uninspiring and even though he’s entitled to come on plenty for that, I’m minded to wait and see if he can rediscover that high-class form from last season before recommending him.
VIRAK chased home Sue Smith’s charge last year and is only 2lb higher this time around, even though his rider, Harry Cobden, will only be able to claim 3lb rather than the 7lb he managed to take off last year. So effectively, he’s 6lb higher than for last year’s attempt at taking this race. However, his reappearance run in the Charlie Hall was a much better effort, just twelve lengths back from the winner and nine away from the magnificent Cue Card. He’s a horse that battles and stays, jumps well and has carried big weights with credit in competitive affairs on soft ground plenty of times before, so there’s no reason why he wouldn’t run a great race again today. The surface will suit him and a mark of 155 is definitely one that he can go very well off, given that he was an unlucky second to Wakanda in the same Listed race at Ascot off 158. Paul Nicholls’ seven-year-old has been a hugely consistent, high-class animal over the past few years and winning this would be a richly deserved reward.
Advice
VIRAK – 1pt e/w @ 7/1 (Paddy Power)
3.45 Newbury – Bet365 Handicap Chase.
The final race of the day at Newbury is this 2m handicap chase and supporters of Ulck Du Lin will be hoping for a better showing than at Ascot when he was tailed off on his return to action. The eight-year-old isn’t the easiest of rides as he tends to be keen and it might just be that that first run takes some of the freshness out of him and makes him a bit more tractable here. Paul Nicholls also takes the step of putting young 7lb conditional Jordan Williams on his back which should make life a little easier for the eight-year-old. On his best form a mark of 140 is not insurmountable and if he can bounce back to form, he could have a big say in proceedings.The five-year-old Fou Et Sage is the youngest member of the field but he has plenty of experience over fences, with this being his eighth start over the bigger obstacles. He had a disappointing spell with Dan Skelton last year but following a return to his native France, he shaped with some promise at Wetherby at the end of October. The ground may just have been quick enough for him that day and this softer surface should show him in a better light. Harry Whittington is a trainer who has done well in such a short space of time and having had a winner on this day last year, he looks to have another leading chance this time around.
There are a number of horses towards the bottom of the weights who come here in good form, notably Raven’s Tower who got the better of Keel Haul when winning at Aintree earlier this month. He seemed to appreciate the drop back to the minimum distance but his trainer seemed to indicate that the six-year-old would find it difficult to win off a raised mark and he has gone up 7lb for his latest success.
Instead, it might be best to look towards Ut Majeur Aulmes who progressed nicely last Spring, winning over course and distance in March before following up at Newton Abbot later in the month. That latest success came with a 7lb conditional on board and he has only been raised 3lb by the handicapper on the back of that effort. As this is his first run of the season, we have to take his fitness on trust but he might not be done improving just yet.
We should also give a mention to Lucinda Russell’s Imjoeking who won with plenty in hand at Kelso last time although this promises to be a tougher assignment. He jumped really well out in front under Derek Fox that day and he is likely to be ridden handily again here. He does have a 6lb rise in the weights to contend with but he is clearly in fine fettle at present and can’t be ruled out.
However, I think the one they all have to beat is GREY GOLD who took this race twelve months ago on his seasonal reappearance and I fancy him to go close once again this time around. His form seemed to tail off after that reappearance run but I think that he is the sort of horse that is best fresh and this might be the best time to catch the eleven-year-old. Kerry Lee’s Kylemore Lough lost nothing in defeat last weekend under Jamie Moore and I think she will be hoping for a bold show here. he is just 2lb higher than his last winning mark and despite having to concede weight all round, he gets the nod.
Advice
GREY GOLD – 1pt win @ 9/1 (Paddy Power
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Two runners I like tomorrow, the first of which is OUR KAEMPFER who will be looking to get off the mark at the third attempt over fences at Newbury (1.35). , I think this horse can do well over fences but it is interesting that connections have decided to stick to 2m4f for the time being as I think he will improve a lot for going up to 3m. Perhaps the presence of a certain Thistlecrack in the 3m novice on Saturday discouraged them from going down that route and he will also be given a mark after this, so handicaps will be an option for him. In terms of tomorrow’s race, he could find things tough with both Grade 1 hurdler One Track Mind and the smart Protek Des Flos rated as exciting chasing prospects by connections. We do have both chasing experience and race fitness on our side which should make the difference and he also wears a tongue-tie for the first time, in a bid to eke out further improvement. In truth, I think that handicaps is where this horse’s future lies but this race could be run a bit quicker than his last race which should suit and I think he is worth a small win bet with experience on his side.
Advice
OUR KAEMPFER – 1pt win @ 8/1 (bet365, BetVictor)
THE second runner of the afternoon is one of our newest additions to the list, BEHIND TIME who bids to follow up his Cheltenham success at Newbury tomorrow afternoon (3.20). Harry Fry’s five-year-old is due to go up 13lb in the handicap but with his success having come in a conditional riders’ race, he escapes a penalty in this contest. The step up to 3m should hold no fears for him and he should step forward a good deal from his first run of the season. He takes on some smart rivals including Grade 2 winner El Bandit but Paul Nicholls gelding does concede the best part of two stone to our horse. The runner-up from Cheltenham Solomn Grundy also returns for another crack but it is hard to see him reversing the placings here. All in all this looks a good opportunity for him to win again before his mark goes up and it is hard to see past him tomorrow.
Advice
BEHIND TIME – 2pts win @ 11/10 (Betfair Sportsbook)
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12.25 Ascot – Mitie Events & Leisure Novices’ Hurdle.
An interesting novice contest and one that could contain a couple of very good young hurdlers. One who isn’t so unknown is Warren Greatrex’s Aloomomo, who is still a novice over hurdles despite six runs over the smaller obstacles in France and over here. He was third behind Yala Enki and Mr Mix at this track on his last run over hurdles in February and even though his experience could help here, a repeat of that form, even over this longer trip, shouldn’t be good enough as he encounters some very promising young horses.Elegant Escape represents the in-form Tizzard yard here and off the back of a battling maiden hurdle win over Paul Nicholls’ useful Persian Delight; he holds strong claims up in trip. He was second in his only start in a useful-looking Irish point-to-point and is highly regarded, so has to be respected in a race where many of the runners’ full potential is yet to be seen.
Kim Bailey’s Laval Noir was last seen running out an impressive winner of a Huntingdon bumper, defeating a highly-regarded Henderson imate, Bardd. He’s a half-brother to the useful Kasakh Noir and despite taking a while to warm up on that racecourse debut; he knew his job well enough at the end and was quite impressive. However, despite his obvious potential, his lack of hurdling experience could leave him a little behind the others and he might be one to keep in the notebook for another day.
For me, the race looks between two exciting prospects from top yards that are unbeaten under rules. Laser Light hails from the Alan King stable, which always has some top class novice hurdlers in its ranks, and the five-year-old has already shown plenty in winning a bumper at Towcester and a maiden hurdle at Chepstow. The form of his hurdle win was boosted this week when Copain De Classe (eight lengths behind in 3rd that day) bolted up at the same venue and the second, Rolling Dylan, did the same at Uttoxeter. The race looks a good one and if those two in behind are anything to go by, King might have a seriously smart horse on his hands. The form of his point-to-point second behind the smart Robin Roe looks more than solid too with that rival hammering a good field at Aintree. He’s a very solid choice in anyone’s book.
COASTAL TIEP, by the admission of jockey Nick Scholfield, is ‘a bit of a playboy’, who showed his inexperience, including a tendency to be a bit lazy and not concentrate properly on his last run at Kempton where he jumped awkwardly at times, was still green for much of the race and needed cajoling as early as the seventh hurdle. However, he still ran out a facile seven length winner over a rival rated 123 and, also by Scholfield’s admission, is a horse that the Nicholls stable hasn’t got to anywhere near the bottom of yet. He’s still just a four-year-old and clearly has plenty of improvement still to come in the hands of the master trainer. The Coastal Path gelding looks a strong stayer with a big career still ahead of him and the way he did everything wrong last time and still won very easily has stuck in my head ever since – if he’s grown up mentally and knows his job better here, he really could be anything, hopefully a Graded-class novice in a race that could contain at least two of them.
MY Advice
COASTAL TIEP – 1pt win @ 10/3 (bet365, BetVictor)
12.40 Haydock – Better Odds With Betfair Exchange Handicap Hurdle.
Just the six runners head to post for this 2m2f contest and the field is headed by Connetable who enjoyed a fine start to the season last term, finishing second in a warm race at Ascot before getting the better of his elders in the Listed Contenders Hurdle at Sandown. Hopes were high for Paul Nicholls’ juvenile after that but he disappointed on his two subsequent runs when down the field in both the Triumph Hurdle and the Scottish Champion Hurdle. However both of those runs came on quicker ground and it is possible that a return to the testing conditions he is likely to encounter tomorrow will show him in a better light. Nicholls has also chosen to utilise the valuable 5lb claim of Stan Sheppard who has already shown himself to be more than competent in the saddle and it should lessen the burden a little. Clearly fitness has to be taken on trust on his seasonal reappearance but in these conditions I think fitness is likely to play a big part and therefore he is reluctantly passed over.
He is joined at the head of the weights by James Ewart’s Aristo Du Plessis who has progressed rapidly over the last two seasons, winning six of his last ten starts. His two starts this term haven’t been too clever but he didn’t seem to take to chasing at Cheltenham in October and he was just outclassed in the Elite Hurdle last time. Clearly he needs to bounce back to form here but he sits on his last winning mark (145) and Dale Irving takes a valuable 5lb off his back. He has won on soft in the past so he should handle conditions but the step up in trip is a big question mark and I think others have stronger claims.
One who is likely to be popular in the market is Nigel Twiston-Davies’ El Terremoto who built on a solid British debut at Chepstow when winning at Stratford at the end of last month. The four-year-old seemed to appreciate stepping up to 2m6f so it is interesting that connections are dropping him back to 2m3f here. The form of his Stratford win doesn’t look overly strong for all he seemed to win very well and he could easily still have more improvement to come. The major question mark for him would have to be the ground as he was well beaten on all four starts on very soft ground when trained in France. That is likely to be major concern bearing in mind what the ground is likely to be at Haydock and for that reason I feel he is worth taking on.
The one who looks to have most going in his favour is the Emmanuel Clayeux-trained FYRMYIN who has won his last three starts in his native France. He showed he handled very soft ground when winning at Vichy in September and for all the form is hard to weigh up, he certainly has race fitness on his side. His trainer was weighing up running him in the Fixed Brush Hurdle instead so he clearly thinks plenty of him and he has to come into consideration getting 9lb from those at the head of the weights. I tend to find that foreign-trained horses are often a bigger price when running over here and in what are likely to be very attritional conditions, I think it is worth taking a chance on him.
Of the rest, Massini’s Trap caused something of a surprise when winning at Aintree a few weeks ago, sprinting clear of his rivals in the closing stages to win by five lengths. Some of those behind him included the smart Born Survivor and Buywise, who ran a fine race in the BetVictor Gold Cup last weekend. Ciaran Gethings’ 5lb claim negates most of the rise in the weights he received for that run but with that victory having come on a sound surface, it remains to be seen whether he will handle these slower conditions.
The field is completed by Jim Goldie’s Great Fighter who has just the one win to his name over hurdles so far. He was running on from the back on his latest outing at Ayr at the end of last month but these conditions are something of an unknown for him. His jockey Brian Hughes could not be in better form but the six-year-old would need a career best by some way to get his head in front here.
MY Advice
FYRMYIN – 1pt win @ 13/2 (Paddy Power)
1.05 Huntingdon – The Brian Stone 50th Birthday Celebration EBF TBA Mares’ Novices’ Steeple Chase.
As a pretty valuable race of its type, despite only a select field of five, the line-up looks well above average and it promises to be an intriguing contest.The quintet look very well matched on paper with them all returning from a summer break and without any previous chasing experience under rules to go on, their form over hurdles looks the best place to start and the top-rated over the smaller obstacles is THE ORGANIST.
The five-year-old was an impressive winner of a Perth mares’ bumper for Stuart Crawford last May and was snapped up by Anthony Bromley’s Million In Mind operation on the back of that victory for £60,000; a shrewd purchase given J. P. McManus (sho also purchased her half-brother Regal Encore for a sizeable sum) went to £260,000 to acquire her just a year later. Stepped up in trip for her first two hurdles starts, she wiped the floor with the opposition and bounced back from a below-par effort over an inadequate two miles to score at Listed level in a particularly competitive mares’ race over three miles at Doncaster’s Grimthorpe Chase meeting in March. In all likelihood, she would have enhanced her profile with another Listed win at Cheltenham the following month but for coming to grief at the last and despite being under pressure, she seemed to keep finding extra. It could have been a very good performance given she was conceding at least 5lb all round and providing that hiccup hasn’t dented her confidence, she could prove a real force in this sphere.
Sainte Ladylime was left in the lead in that fateful Cheltenham contest but didn’t have enough in the tank having made a mistake at the final flight to hold off Katie Too and Actinpieces, eventually finishing third. That was still probably a career-best effort and she seemed to go from strength to strength upon joining Kim Bailey and tackling hurdles last season. In truth, she was long odds-on on her final two victories against questionable opposition and would be 9lb wrong with the selection on their hurdles marks but she clearly has ability and her participation adds to the intrigue of this contest.
The only horse to beat the selection when she has completed in her career to date is Tara Flow who comfortably got the better of her re-opposing rival at Leicester back in January. However, Venetia Williams’ mare looked more at home over the minimum trip and put her speed to good use. She looks like making a cracking chaser as a big rangy sort but her jumping was let down in a Sandown Grade 2 on her latest start and the step up to today’s trip didn’t seem to suit her as she was far too free throughout. With that in mind, she will have to settle a lot better now tackling fences for the first time but it’s worth noting that her bumper form in Ireland for Pat Fahy was particularly smart with subsequent Grade 1 winner Don’ Touch It and Grade 1 runner-up Last Encounter in behind so she evidently has the ability to make her mark. Charlie Deutsch’s valuable 5lb claim can only aid her cause.
The remaining pair have an edge on their rivals as they both emerged from the pointing sphere with a win to their name although Treaty Girl does look to be the one with a bit to find on the rest of the field. She was a wide margin winner of a maiden and novice hurdle earlier this year but was found out in a Listed handicap hurdle at Cheltenham behind Briery Belle (who was runner-up to the selection at Doncaster on her previous start) on her latest start.
Of more interest is Tagrita who represents the bang in-form Paul Nicholls. She is the most experienced campaigner in the field having already had 11 starts over hurdles to go with her impressive victory in her sole start in Irish points. The eight-year-old returned from a year off to score in a pair of Wincanton handicap hurdles last campaign but signed off with a lacklustre effort at Fontwell on her final start back in March. She is bred for fences and will no doubt have been well schooled at Manor House Stables but has tended to come on for her seasonal bow in the past.
MY AdviceTHE ORGANIST – 2pts win @ 2/1 (bet365)
1.30 Ascot – The Trisoft Mares’ Handicap Hurdle Race.
This has the makings of a pretty intriguing contest on paper but I’ve always thought LIFEBOAT MONA could be a well above average mare and an opening handicap mark of 127 may well underestimate her. Paul Nicholls’ was a decent winner of a 4yo mares maiden on her only start in Irish points and blossomed into a quality bumper performer a couple of seasons back, landing a Listed mares’ bumper at Huntingdon in the process. She commenced her hurdling career with a dominant display in a mares’ maiden at Wincanton and rounded off her season with another solid display in a novice event back at that course in February. A disappointing run in a Listed novice at Taunton was sandwiched in between but it was reported that the yard were out of sorts at the time and she seemed none the worse next time out. The conditions here should be ideal for her and if she is ready to go first time up, she could take all the beating.Miss Estela was another on the verge of being a very smart bumper animal a couple of seasons back but has taken time to find her feet over hurdles since. She deservedly landed a couple of handicap hurdles in the spring but looked to throw the towel in on her final start for Warren Greatrex at Warwick and joined Johnny Farrelly shortly after. She looked a totally different animal and battled well having been headed two out to grind out a half-length win. She doesn’t always seem the most straightforward but connections thought that a change of scenery might sharpen her up and it certainly worked. A further 7lb rise is a tough one to overcome stepping back up in class but it is a case of striking while the iron is hot with the six-year-old at the moment as she is currently in foal.
Top weight Ten Times Better is an interesting contender on her first outing for Peter Bowen. She landed a bumper and maiden hurdle at Clonmel early last campaign and was subsequently set some fairly hefty tasks in Graded company. She was sent off a surprising favourite in the Grade 2 Monksfield Novice Hurdle but never landed a telling blow and hasn’t really seemed to progress from her maiden success. Making her handicap debut off a mark of 130 looks a stiff ask here on all evidence.
At the other end of the spectrum, Loves Destination gets in off a featherweight with Michael Heard’s handy 5lb claim. She scored in three handicap hurdles in February and March and although she is now 10lb higher than her last winning mark, she is technically 1lb lower than when a staying on second at Warwick back in September. She was a tad keen that day so the step up in trip should certainly be in her favour.
Midnight Sapphire arrives here bang in form having struck in a pair of Newton Abbot handicap hurdles last month. She was hit with an 8lb rise for her latest victory but that seems fair given the ready fashion in which she took on the boys and prevailed and that form has been boosted with the third-placed Expedite since going in at Exeter. Although not as visually as impressive, her first victory in the month was a top staying effort and is another run that has been boosted by the beaten horses, most notably the runner-up On Demand who has subsequently won twice. This is a step into the unknown in terms of class but on the evidence of her last couple of runs, she could well be up to making her presence felt.
Also, with a pair of 1s next to her name is Mia’s Storm who warrants a great deal of respect from the Alan King stable, who have a great record with fillies and mares. She struck on her only start in points and was clearly well thought of upon joining current connections as she was pitched in at the deep end in a Listed bumper on her first start. She performed with great credit to finish second behind La Bague Au Roi but it took a little while for her hurdling career to get out of the blocks. She was convincingly beaten when sent off favourite on her hurdling debut at Warwick and failed to get involved in a Sandown Grade 2 three weeks later. However, she bounced back with aplomb in the spring, landing a pair of mares’ novice events in ready fashion and makes her handicap debut here off a fair mark of 126. She clearly has her best days ahead of her and rates the biggest danger to the selection with Tom Cannon, one of the strongest jockeys in Britain, taking the ride.
Of the remainder, Pulling Power looks to have a bit to find having been pulled up and well beaten in a pair of handicap hurdles off this mark to round off last campaign while Ayla’s Emperor has been dropped 2lb on the back of her last run but has finished out with the washing on her two starts in the last month or so.
MY Advice
LIFEBOAT MONA – 1pt win @ 11/4 (Betfair Sportsbook)
2.05 Ascot – Stella Artois 1965 Chase (Grade 2)
With the likes of Vautour, Al Ferof and Master Minded on the roll of honour of this race, it clearly usually takes a good one to win it and class often shines through despite the better horses having to carry more weight.The Grade 2 Old Roan Chase at Aintree a month ago is an excellent place to start here as four of the first five home re-oppose again here. Third Intention won the race that day and probably put up a career-best in doing so for Colin Tizzard, but received a lot of weight from most of his rivals, including over a stone from God’s Own. Although he’s clearly a very consistent horse and has plenty of ability, I find it very hard to see him backing that win up here. Royal Regatta carried the same weight as Third Intention that day but was well-beaten in fifth and even though he’ll have come on for that seasonal debut and he does love the track at Ascot, he’s another that might find it difficult here.
Vibrato Valtat hit the front two out at Aintree, but couldn’t hold off Third Intention or God’s Own in the closing stages of the race for Paul Nicholls. It was a return to form for the grey gelding after falling and then finishing tailed off at the two big festivals at Cheltenham and Aintree at the end of last season and he’s certainly entitled to build upon that last effort here. He does look a very difficult horse to place though – not quite up to winning a Grade 1 at either two miles or two and a half miles, even in his preferred softer ground. This is the kind of race he would seem to have a decent chance in, but in the horse that finished in front of him at Aintree, he’s got a top-class rival to beat.
With Tom George’s stable in flying form over these early few weeks of the jumps season and Grade 1 triumphs over the likes of Vautour and Al Ferof to his name, GOD’S OWN looks the one to beat here despite giving the field weight – he has to give 4lb to most of the field but he’s rated 6lb better than the rest anyway. His second at Aintree looked a horribly unlucky one, hampered at the fourth last, just as the leaders quickened up, before quickening well and staying on powerfully to claim second. He was giving Third Intention over a stone there, so I’d be stunned if that form wasn’t overturned on 11lb better terms, while he’s 2lb better off with Vibrato Valtat despite besting him by two and a half lengths. He’s better on a right handed track too, as his defeat of Vautour at Punchestown showed, and the good to soft ground should be spot on for him.
The biggest threat on ratings is Paul Nicholls’ second entry in the race, Dodging Bullets, who gets 10lb from the selection despite being rated just 6lb inferior. However, his run at Exeter behind Sir Valentino and Garde La Victoire didn’t really show the spark this 2015 Champion Chaser used to have and I’d be wary of him until he proves he’s back to somewhere near his best, especially over a trip that he’s unproven at.
The other one that could be in with a shout is the impressive novice from last year, Kylemore Lough. He could be anything this year and his defeat of Outlander at Fairyhouse in the Grade 1 Ryanair Gold Cup reads well, so he’s one to keep a close eye on, even though he’ll probably come on for the run and the experience in this open company.
MY Advice
GOD’S OWN – 1pt win @ 5/2 (bet365, BetVictor)
2.25 Haydock – Betfair Exchange ‘Fixed Brush’ Handicap Hurdle (Grade 3)
Make no bones about it; this is likely to be a brutal test of stamina in what is going to be sticky, heavy ground. With that in mind, I’d be very nervous to suggest anything that a) doesn’t have much experience of very soft ground and b) hasn’t run a good race over three miles.After winning the race with Baradari last season, Dan Skelton has the favourite here in Two Taffs and after a facile win in a weak novice hurdle at Carlisle to get his season started, he’s thrown in at the deep end here. His efforts in a couple of decent handicap hurdles at Kempton and Sandown (EBF Final) are very respectable, especially the latter, staying on well to finish fourth after being hampered two out. It showed he stayed two and a half miles on soft ground and that there was juice in a mark of 126. He went on to comfortably win off a mark of 129 over two miles and five furlongs on decent ground at Ayr, but he was receiving weight from many of his rivals that day and had the benefit of a prep for the race that didn’t include a hard race at the Cheltenham Festival. This will require a significant step up again off a mark of 138 on ground he’s never encountered before and even though the Skelton’s are doing well in competitive handicaps already this season, prices of 4/1 look very short to me.
Caid Du Berlais bolted up under Stan Sheppard at Aintree last time out on his first attempt at three miles. The switch back to hurdles this season looks to have revitalised the 2014 Paddy Power (now BetVictor) Gold Cup winner and that proof of his stamina certainly puts him in the mix here. He’s a soft-ground winner with a French background, so you’d think that he’ll be able to handle the ground, the only issue I have with him is the fact that he’s been hiked up 8lb in the handicap for that last win at Aintree. In a race where every pound could count, he’s now up to a mark that he struggled to win off over fences – the discipline Paul Nicholls’ seven-year-old is arguably better at. Of course Sheppard’s 5lb claim will help and I think he’ll go well, but he could just be carrying a few pounds too many to win.
Almost ten lengths behind Nicholls’ horse at Aintree was Kruzhlinin, Philip Hobbs’ staying chaser. It looked as if he was just being given a spin over hurdles as a pipe-opener, but it could be the case that he’ll be kept over hurdles for a while this season to protect his chasing mark for another crack at the Grand National. He’s 10lb better off with Caid Du Berlais here so could well close the gap significantly in a race where stamina will be the key element. Still, he will probably prefer better ground, as will many in this, so his nice hurdles mark might have to wait for a drier day to be taken advantage of.
If it’s a strong-staying battler we’re looking for, Unowhatimeanharry tops the list – his five races won on the spin at the end of last season, culminating in a superb Albert Bartlett victory, showed him to be a highly progressive, hardy horse for Harry Fry and his guts and quality should see him go well again here off a break. He’s won over three miles in heavy ground already at Exeter so stamina is certainly not in question, while he was more than fit enough after a break last season to win, so that shouldn’t be a worry either. The only thing that leaves doubts is carrying top weight – a rating of 149 is a difficult one to win a very competitive handicap hurdle off at the best of times, but in desperate ground and first time out, it would be a monumental performance.
Westren Warrior made a satisfactory return to action at Cheltenham a month ago, finishing a never-nearer sixth in a three mile handicap hurdle on good ground. He’s been dropped a pound to 136 in the handicap for that last run and with the ground turning very soft; it looks as if he should be primed for a good performance here. He’s already won twice on heavy ground, once over three miles and once over two and a half miles so there are no problems there, while the booking of the in-form pilot Brian Hughes looks a shrewd move. However, his second in the Lanzarote Hurdle last year on soft ground might just prove to be a key piece of form in this.
The horse that beat him that day was Venetia Williams’ YALA ENKI, who relished the soft ground and ran his rivals into the ground from the front. He’s a dour stayer who loves as softer ground as you can find, something he’ll certainly get here. He was fifth in the race last season off a mark of 130 and even though he’s running off 139 now, the superb Harry Cobden claims 3lb off his back, making him just 6lb higher in the weights than last year after a season’s worth of improvement. He finished last campaign on a mark of 142 and, as just a six-year-old on just his second season in Britain; I’d be surprised if there wasn’t more improvement to come this term, so with Cobden’s claim, an effective mark of 136 could prove very lenient in conditions that suit him perfectly. The lack of a recent run could be viewed as a concern, but he was excellent on his first run last season and has won or come second each time after a break of two months or more, so fresh could be the time to catch the son of Nickname. All in all, there is plenty going for YALA ENKI and if he can keep his temperament under control (has sweated up in the past), he has to have a fantastic chance.
MY Advice
YALA ENKI – 1pt e/w @ 8/1 (Betfred)
3.00 Haydock – Betfair Chase (Grade 1)
The Betfair Chase is one of the first early-season races in which we start to see the big guns of the staying chase division returning to the track and all eyes will be on Coneygree to see how the 2015 Cheltenham Gold Cup winner is on his return from a 377 day absence. His crowning in March 2015 was quite something as he jumped from pillar to post to land jump racing’s biggest prize and a repeat of that run would surely see him take all the beating here. However, he is now a nine-year-old who has had his fair share of problems in his career to date, restricting him to just 11 starts in four years and it is hard to know how much affect this latest setback has had on him. Even assuming that all is well on his return, a Grade 1 3m chase on heavy ground is hardly the easiest of introductions on the back of a lay-off and there has to be a good chance that the petrol gauge will be running pretty low in the closing stages. On his day, I would be confident that he would be a warm order for this race but given the factors I have just outlined, I think he is worth passing over at 2/1.The favourite with most firms is the defending champion Cue Card, who also took this contest back in 2013. Colin Tizzard’s ten-year-old was a revelation last term, winning three Grade 1 contests and where he would have finished in the Gold Cup had he stood up is a subject of much debate. However, this season is a new start and having been backed as if defeat was out of the question at Wetherby last month, it is fair to say he was a little disappointing in third. It just looked as though he got tired in the closing stages which is understandable on his first run of the season but he is ten now and until he bounces back to form, you have to wonder if this season may be a bridge too far. In reality he came on a lot for his run in the Charlie Hall last year which he could well do again but I am not sure that backing him at 13/8 is much of a betting proposition.
Irish Cavalier produced a career best to get the better of Cue Card at Wetherby last month but you have to say that race fitness may just have proved the difference on the day, with Rebecca Curtis’ seven-year-old having had a spin around Chepstow in early October. His rating of 160 means that he has to take in these races but he was found wanting in Grade 1 company last year and you suspect that in testing conditions, he is likely to come up short once again here.
It is worth mentioning that Cue Card is not the only dual winner of the race as Silviniaco Conti also comes here bidding to win the race for a third time. He was no match for Cue Card twelve months ago and his only success last term came when dropped back to 2m5f in the Ascot Chase in February. He showed signs of enthusiasm in his reappearance run at Down Royal a couple of weeks ago, making the running until fading on the run to the second last. He should improve physically for that first run of the season, but in truth I think his best days are behind him and he could find it tough here.
With that in mind, I am going to take a chance on one of the younger members of the field whose best days may still be ahead of them. SEEYOUATMIDNIGHT has won seven of his thirteen starts under rules and has only been out of the frame once in seven starts over the larger obstacles. That run was incidentally the only time he has tackled Grade 1 company over fences but the thing that Sandy Thomson’s eight-year-old has in his favour here is the forecast heavy going. Both of his Grade 2 successes have come on heavy ground and the way he jumped and travelled at Carlisle on his reappearance suggest that he may just have improved over the summer. His connections were eyeing a tilt at the Hennessy next weekend but they have decided to come here with conditions seemingly having fallen in their favour. On official ratings he has 22lb to find with the top-rated member of the field Cue Card but to my eye, he looks the only one who is likely to relish these very attritional conditions. As we saw in the Scottish National last year he stays all day and with the ground having come right for him, I think he is worth a punt at around the 7/1 mark.
Of the remainder of the field, the eleven-year-old Menorah is the only one of any interest having finished runner-up to Silviniaco Conti in this race two years ago. He was just behind Irish Cavalier in second in the Charlie Hall Chase on his most recent outing but his connections have indicated that he may not run if the ground is too soft, which would release Richard Johnson to partner Coneygree.
MY Advice
SEEYOUATMIDNIGHT – 1pt win @ 13/2 (William Hill)
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1.20 Cheltenham – Racing Post Arkle Trophy Trial Novices´ Chase (Grade 2)
With two runners from Henry De Bromhead’s stable and one from each of the Nicholls, Henderson, Tizzard and Twiston-Davies yards, this does have a real festival trial look to it, even though there may only be two or three that will be targeted at the Arkle itself in March.Hammersly Lake ran respectably at Chepstow last month over a trip half a mile longer than this, only weakening out of contention from 3 out on despite pulling quite hard throughout and this drop back to two miles could well suit at this stiffer track. He’s sure to have come on plenty for that last run and could go well here off 11st 2lb.
Mick Thonic chased home Shantou Village last time out and even though that horse was well-beaten by Frodon subsequently when falling at the last, it’s still decent form as he had Qualando and Brother Tedd in behind, both useful animals. Still, there are a few very promising types in this race and I think he’ll just find himself a little outclassed despite possessing a good attitude and plenty of jumping ability.
The first of Henry De Bromhead’s two entries is Some Plan, who made a successful stable and chase debut in a two-runner race at Punchestown last month and receives a 4lb penalty for that. He showed plenty of potential at times for Paul Nicholls last season and despite his obvious quirks, could be very useful over fences, however he was a stone well-in with Art Of Payroll on hurdle ratings and wasn’t wildly impressive when beating him, so he’ll have to improve a lot again to win this much more competitive race.
Probably De Bromhead’s ‘first string’ is Three Stars, ridden for the first time by Richard Johnson, and on the form of his two fairly comfortable victories over Gigginstown’s Ball D’Arc, he’d have a leading chance here. The second of those wins was a Grade 3 so he’ll have an extra penalty to carry, giving 2lb and 6lb to the field. That won’t help matters and you’d think that the likes of Hammersly Lake and Some Plan will be much closer to him because of it, but he’s made a good impression so far this season and there’s no reason why he won’t go well again.
However, the one I want to be on here is LE PREZIEN for Paul Nicholls. Just two and a quarter lengths behind the brilliant Yorkhill in the Grade 1 Mersey Novices’ Hurdle at Aintree at the end of last season, this five-year-old has the best hurdles form of any of these by a fair margin. He made good on that promise when he impressed on his chasing debut, finishing just held by Charbel in a Novices’ Chase at Uttoxeter that could turn out to be very high class indeed with Top Notch a length back in third. He jumped nicely behind Charbel, who had the run of the race, and looked as if he was a little unlucky not to overhaul him later on – he’ll have come on plenty for that run and has the potential to rate very highly indeed in this season’s Novice Chasing ranks. This stiff two miles will suit and even though he might prefer a little more cut in the ground, it shouldn’t inconvenience him – he’ll be a hard horse to beat in this given he receives 4lb from Some Plan and 6lb from Three Stars.
MY Advice
LE PREZIEN – 1pt win1.55 Cheltenham – Shloer Chase (Grade 2)
An intriguing renewal of this race in prospect, with plenty of questions about the eight runners to be answered – none more so than for Nicky Henderson’s Simonsig, who was once undoubtedly top class, but hasn’t shown that same spark in the hellish three years he’s had since winning the Arkle back in 2013. Injuries have derailed him time and time again and the three runs he had last season, while a little uninspiring, were promising in that he managed to actually get out on to the racecourse three times. We know much better than to say ‘you don’t get them back’ – see Sprinter Sacre – but even though the race conditions favour the grey (gets 10lb from Top Gamble for example) it’s difficult to be confident that a) he’ll even run and b) he’s still got the level of ability required to take a race like this. It would be great to see him back to his best, but at 3/1, it could be the right play to look elsewhere until he proves his ability remains.Also getting weight from most of his rivals here is Henry De Bromhead’s Grade 1 stalwart, SPECIAL TIARA. In fact, if you go through the weight-adjusted ratings, he’s a full 18lb clear of top-weight Top Gamble and 11lb clear of next top-rated, Fox Norton, so if he’s wound up and ready to go first time out, he should take a lot of beating. However, even though De Bromhead’s yard is firing on all cylinders at the moment, the break he’s had is a concern – the nine-year-old has usually needed a race before getting into top gear for the season – he was 50 lengths fourth to Hidden Cyclone on last year’s reappearance while he was an eleven length fourth to Twinlight in November 2014, even though the soft ground on both occasions may well be a valid excuse. His third in the Champion Chase last season is the best piece of recent form in the race by quite some way and with the way that the weights are calculated here, he has to go close, even if he’s not 100% wound up.
Top Gamble, as previously mentioned, carries top weight and giving at least 4lb to everything else in the race, 10lb to some, on his reappearance is a very daunting task indeed. He’s also prefer plenty of rain to materialise, something that doesn’t look like happening, so he’s passed over here for another day.
Coming into the race, Fox Norton is definitely the one who is on the up. He proved his race fitness beyond a doubt when absolutely bolting up in a C&D handicap off a mark of 146, but he does receive a 4lb penalty for that effort here and this is a step up in class. You could argue that of all the Grade 2 chases he could have gone for, this is probably one with the least depth and most open to a progressive horse, but he’s come up short at this level every time he’s been asked the question, both over hurdles and fences, so the fact he’s been bought by the Potts’ and gone to Colin Tizzard’s yard doesn’t instantly make me think he’s a shoe-in to win a race like this. Undoubtedly that last run was impressive and he may have progressed enough to mix it at this level, but again, 3/1 is a short price to gamble that he’s reached a high enough standard to win a Grade 2.
Nicky Richards’ Simply Ned is certainly worth a mention as he’s got Group 2 ability and could well pick up the pieces if the favourites fail to fire. His last run, where he was second to a horse he was giving the best part of two stone to, was a nice introduction and he’ll have come on plenty for that. He needs a real strong gallop to aim at and with Special Tiara in the field, he should get that, so he’s not the worst each-way bet at around 8/1, even though he’s got plenty to find with that trailblazing rival.
One who could be anything and will be interesting to keep an eye on is Module – trained by Tom George and a horse that hasn’t seen the track since December 2014. He was very useful on his day, finishing third in Sire De Grugy’s Champion Chase win in 2014, so if the in-form George has him back fit and firing, he may be wildly overpriced in a race where he receives weight from many of the others.
MY Advice
SPECIAL TIARA – 1pt win @ 7/2 (Boylesports)2.30 Cheltenham – Stanjames.Com Greatwood Handicap Hurdle (Grade 3)
Perhaps the strongest trend associated with this race is that looking at age and whilst no one age group has dominated, those aged between four and six have proved best to follow. The seven-year-old Khyber Kim is the only winner in the last decade to sit outside the desired bracket which doesn’t bode well for the trio of older horses in this year’s line-up Rossetti, A Hare Breath and Thunder Sheikh.In competitive handicaps fine margins can often make the difference and improving horses can often come out on top. The Greatwood is no different as seven of the last ten winners had no more than six starts prior to lining up here. That splits the field just about in half but some of the names that miss this trend are the likes of Hargam, Ch’tibello and John Constable.
However, that is not to say that lower-rated horses win this race, in fact the opposite is true. An official rating of 140 appears to be the benchmark as six of the last ten winners sat on or above this mark. In terms of this year’s field, the only qualifiers are the top eight as they appear on the racecard, Hargam, Sternrubin, Brain Power, Ch’tibello, Winter Escape, North Hill Harvey, Modus and Leoncavallo.
In terms of weight, 11st 6lb appears to be the limit as only four winners in the last decade have carried more than that to victory. Of this year’s field, only the top-weight Hargam, who carries 11st 12lb here, has such a burden to carry.
Good recent form is something that has served many punters well down the years in handicaps and this race is no different. To narrow it down, six of the last ten winners had achieved a top three finish on their most recent outing. Of this year’s line-up, there are only seven who make the cut, namely Hargam, Sternrubin, Brain Power, Winter Escape, Modus, Leoncavallo and Rossetti.
The final factor worthy of consideration is the betting and although there have been big-priced winners in the past, generally this race tends to centre around those towards the head of the betting. In fact six of the last ten winners were sent off at single figure SPs so it is probably best to let the market guide your selections.
Shortlist
WINTER ESCAPE – 6/6
Modus – 6/6
Leoncavallo – 5/6
Conclusion
When all the relevant factors are taken into account, we are left with two horses who match all six of our trends and both are owned by JP McManus.My preference is for WINTER ESCAPE who arrives here having won all three of his hurdles starts to date. Alan King decided to swerve the Spring Festivals last season following the five-year-old’s victory in the Dovecote at Kempton and is hoping to reap the rewards this winter with him. The two horses he beat on that occasion Marracudja and Welsh Shadow have done plenty for the form since then and he looks an exciting prospect as he enters his second season hurdling. This race is likely to be quite different to anything he has encountered before but he travels well in his races so he should be able to cope with a strong pace. The stable of Alan King has been firing in the winners left, right and centre in the past couple of weeks and although we have to go back to 2006 to find the last winning favourite, he looks to have a leading chance.
Narrowly missing out on the top spot is Modus who won his first two starts over hurdles last term. He was pitched into the Betfair Hurdle not long after but never got into the race that day and he turned in a similarly disappointing effort in the County Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival. However, on his return to action at Ascot last month, he looked like a horse who enjoyed the big-field scenario, weaving through horses in the closing stages to finish a close third behind Sternrubin. He has only been raised 1lb for that effort and a reproduction of that sort of run would see Paul Nicholls’ six-year-old go very close.
The final member of the shortlist is Leoncavallo who was trained last season by John Ferguson to finish fifth in the Triumph Hurdle. Having had a spell on the flat for Charlie Appleby in the summer, he is now in the care of Ben Pauling for whom he finished second on his first run for the yard at Cheltenham in October. He only found the smart Sceau Royal to be too good on that occasion and that horse boosted the form when landing the Elite Hurdle at Wincanton last weekend. The only thing preventing him from having a perfect record is that he has had eight starts over hurdles, winning five of them. This will be his first run in handicap company but with Alex Ferguson taking a useful 7lb off his back, he can’t be dismissed.
MY AdviceWINTER ESCAPE – 2pts win @ 11/4 (bet365)
3.05 White Christmas Parties at Cheltenham Conditional Jockeys’ Handicap Hurdle.
The sight of a 21-runner conditional jockeys’ handicap hurdle isn’t everyone’s cup of tea but I have reasons to believe CALL TO ORDER can run a cracking race off his opening mark of 120. Each time he has taken to the track he has come up against a talented rival. He bumped in Winter Escape (unbeaten and favourite for the Greatwood Hurdle on this card) on his hurdling debut but was only five and a quarter lengths back in 3rd. He then reappeared this season at Chepstow where he was 6th behind Geordie Des Champs and Capeland who have both won since and are now rated 125 and 122 respectively. He then took a step forward with upped in trip when returning to Chepstow, where he finished a close 3rd behind two promising sorts in Elegant Escape and Persian Delight. The main concern would be the stable form but Call To Order has now had two runs this season so fitness can now be assured. The step up in trip definitely seemed to suit last time and this well-bred €160,000 purchase looks well-weighted to make an impact here.Clonalig House is an obvious danger given his shrewd connections but has been raised 7lb after winning a lesser contest at Musselburgh. Ballyarthur represents the in-form Nigel Twiston-Davies yard and is likely to come for his seasonal debut at Carlisle a month ago. Being an Irish Point winner this trip will be ideal and is hard to overlook.
David Pipe has won three of the last five runnings of the race and Chic Theatre is his sole representative here. He’s a two-mile novice hurdle winner but finished a disappointing last of five at Towcester 39 days ago and despite connections, a big leap of faith is required here.
Of the other Looksnowtlikebrian has won his last two but races off 16lb higher, making life much tougher. So, Solumn Grundy could be the biggest danger for Neil Mulholland, a trainer I rate very highly. He made no mistake winning on his final start of last season and it’s hard to gauge his ability, making it hard to dismiss him on his seasonal return. However, preference is still for Call To Order who arrives here with assured fitness and solid form in the book.
MY Advice
CALL TO ORDER – 0.5pt each-way
3.40 Jockey Club Ownership Syndicate Standard Open National Hunt Flat Race (Listed)
A Listed Bumper closes proceedings and this race has been won by some very smart types in the past, including Rock On Ruby, Red Sherlock and last year’s Champion Bumper winner, Ballyandy.These are big boots to fill but I’m hoping SUMKINDOFKING can follow up his recent facile victory at Chepstow when he won in the style of an above average animal. The form can be scrutinised but he could only beat what was put in front of him, which he did with the minimum of fuss, drawing away on the bridle. He travelled powerfully and appears to possess a great engine, all the makings of a smart type. He was well-backed beforehand, suggesting connections knew they had a nice prospect on their hands. The new partnership of Tom George and Adrian Heskin couldn’t have started better and there looks to be much more to come from this Irish Point-to-Point winner with the stable in superb from.
The main danger on paper looks to be Brahms De Clermont for the powerful Paul Nicholls stable. This five-year-old supplemented his winning debut at Taunton by taking a bumper at the recent Showcase meeting. On that occasion Stan Sheppard was able to offset the horses penalty with his 7lb claim, but as this is a Listed event he is unable to claim. Also, this particular bumper wasn’t the strongest for the course so he could be vulnerable.
Boreham Bill is well-regarded by his trainer by Ben Pauling and his runners always warrant a second look in this sphere. A winner on his debut at Market Rasen, in which the runner-up has since gone on to run well over hurdles, there is more to come from this four-year-old. He could actually prove the biggest danger to the selection and it will be interesting to see what the market makes of him.
Gustave Mahler won the Goffs UK Point-to-Point Bumper at Aintree back in May before proving that to be no fluke under Rules when following up at Worcester. Alastair Ralph is better known for his exploits in the Pointing arena so may not be a familiar name, but that doesn’t mean this horse can be overlooked lightly. He does lack the potential of some of these but it would be no surprise to see him run well at a price.
Fergal O’Brien is another trainer in fine form and he saddles two runners here. Imperial Eloquence could easily have a say in this on his seasonal return. He won a Hexham bumper last season before beating all bar one rival under a penalty at Perth. He needs to step forward on that bare form but there is every chance he could with his yard amongst the winners. However, the yards other runner Poetic Rhythm could hold stronger claims after an impressive win in a Chepstow bumper 35 days ago. Having said that, he ran behind the re-opposing Gustave Mahler in the Point-to-Point bumper at Aintree, so may have his work cut out turning that form around.
Bags Groove and Allez Sea are two others who deserves a mention. The former has form figures of 212 in bumpers and ran a cracker under a penalty in a valuable bumper at Newbury back in May. That was a smart race and was ultimately only undone by the penalty. He too is another one to watch in the market on his first run of the season. Meanwhile, the latter was last seen winning at Fairyhouse by four lengths and there could be more to come from this son of Sea The Stars. He comes here fit and well with that run coming 36 ago, however, there’s a sneaky suspicion he could bump into something better here.
MY Advice
SUMKINDOFKING – 1pt win
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12.40 Cheltenham – JCB Triumph Hurdle Trial.
A very interesting juvenile contest to start proceedings on day two and history suggests it pays to concentrate on those at the head of the betting, with eight of the last 10 winners going off at 4/1 or shorter.Another interesting trend worth noting is that eight of the last 10 winners of the race had some previous hurdling experience in the UK, seven of which had won on these shores. However, the two horses in the last ten years to win on their UK debut’s where Hinterland and Sam Winner, both trained by Paul Nicholls. The champion trainer is again represented by a UK hurdling debutant in the shape of Wealth Des Mottes, who has had one run to date when winning at Clairefontaine in July. This son of Silver Frost received a favourable mention from Pupil Assistant Harry Derham earlier in the week and clearly comes into the race with untapped potential. However, he has to give weight away to all of his rivals, as well as race fitness, so is passed over on this occasion but is certainly one to watch in the future for his powerful stable.
Dino Velvet is another interesting runner and he represents the Alan King yard which won the race in 2006 and 2007 with Katchit and Franchoek respectably. King’s excels with his juveniles and this French recruit looks the perfect type for this division having gained some experience on the level in France. He’s also had a run for his new trainer when 4th of 8 at Chester in September so should be straight enough for this. Dino Velvet hails from the same sources which recommend the yards smart sorts Walkon, Mille Chief, Gibralfaro and Oceane, which itself commands respect. But as touched on earlier in the piece, the lack of hurdling experience could catch him out on this occasion and may be one to follow on his next start.
This leads me to a horse that caught my eye four weeks ago, DEFI DU SEUIL. Hailing from the Philip Hobbs yard which won the race in 2014 with Golden Doyen, he looks to hold the strongest credentials going into this race. He has the all-important UK hurdling experience thanks to a routine win at Ffos Las, admittedly he was 1/4 and was entitled to win the race, but he basically cantered the whole way round and won as easy as you like. His jumping was very professional for a juvenile on his hurdling debut and he can put this experience to good use here. Prior to joining Philip Hobbs the son of Voix Du Nord had won the second of two outings on the Flat, doing so impressively and showing he possesses a great engine and smart turn of foot. He certainly ticks a lot of boxes and rates as an exciting juvenile for his powerful connections and it would be disappointing if he wasn’t involved in the finish.
Of the others East Indies and Nucky Thompson both arrive on the back of recent victories, and have decent Flat form in the book, but are likely to struggle to give 4lbs to the likes of Defi Du Seuil and Dino Velvet in a much deeper contest.
Nick Williams won the race in 2009 with Pistolet Noir and he saddles Diable De Sivola. He hung badly at Huntingdon last time so did well to finish as close as he did and back on a left-handed track he could sneak a place if everything goes to plan this time around.
MY Advice
DEFI DE SEUIL – 2pts win @ 9/4 (bet365)
1.50 Cheltenham – BetVictor Handicap Chase (Grade 3)
A quality turnout for this Grade 3 staying chase and last year’s winner, Sausalito Sunrise, is back for more, this time off a mark 14lb higher, but it’s genuinely possible that he’s a 14lb better horse now. His third from a mark of 159, 1lb higher than today, at Sandown Park’s season-ending Bet365 Gold Cup (Whitbread) was a superb run on ground that was arguably too quick for him to show his best – all his wins have come on at least good to soft – so it can be marked up. The fact he’s been dropped to 158 makes him very tempting in a race that Sam Winner won off top weight in 2014, but you can’t help but think that on his reappearance, he’ll find one or two better handicapped.Minella Rocco is the obvious horse in the lineup in terms of hype, but for me, this National Hunt Chase winner has plenty to prove off a huge mark of 155, especially with his stable in typically quiet early-season form. It was a good performance at the Festival to defeat Native River, but he needed plenty of time at the start of last season, like many of Jonjo O’Neill’s string, to hit top gear and I have a feeling it could well be the case again, even though he’ll be a very popular choice for many.
Upswing is another from the O’Neill stable who looks to hold claims in this; especially given he was a close second in the race last season and has a 13lb swing with Sausalito Sunrise. His last three runs were a little limp though and he’ll have to bounce back in a big way if he’s to challenge – he was particularly reluctant in his first race of the season at Chepstow, being pulled up after 13 fences.
Fifth in this race last season, Shotgun Paddy is a dependable old campaigner and should run his race once again here. Emma Lavelle’s gelding has slipped down the weights and even though he probably wants further than this ideally, he’s a well-handicapped contender off 4lb lower than for his Eider Chase second in February.
The in-form Colin Tizzard has two in the race and while his ex-Irish horse Viconte Du Noyer is an intriguing contender up significantly in trip on his stable debut, it is Fourth Act that looks the clear stable number one. He ran well at Ascot in the Sodexo Gold Cup Chase, a similar race to this over slightly shorter, showing that this longer trip might well be able to draw more out of him as he was staying on well at the end. He races off the same mark here, but his only trip to Cheltenham previously was a total write off as he never travelled a yard in the Close Brothers Listed Chase at the festival this year, which does go down as a worry. However, he will have come on for his reappearance in a hot race and certainly holds a chance.
Five of the last nine winners of the race have carried less than 10st 3lbs and over this far a trip, every pound can count. Nigel Twiston-Davies’ COGRY sneaks in at the bottom of the weights here, and complete with Ryan Hatch’s valuable 3lb claim, he will only have to carry 9st 13lb round the course come Saturday afternoon. He has some good form in staying handicaps off higher marks than this, so he looks a very well-handicapped animal off 134 if he could only put together a solid round of jumping. It’s been his Achilles heel in the past and it was his undoing on his last run over C&D as he fell at the first, but he was very well-supported that day and that confidence can’t go without being noted. It looks as if he’s prominent in the betting already for this and taking the early prices could be a shrewd move for a horse that finished a two and a half-length fourth in this race last year off a 2lb higher mark. He’s still nice and fresh after not getting past the first last time and if he can hold it together, he has to have a big shout of finally fulfilling his potential in a race that seven-year-olds have won four of the last five runnings.
MY Advice
COGRY – 1pt e/w @ 9/1 (BetVictor, William Hill)
2.25 Cheltenham – BetVictor Gold Cup.
One of the strongest trends associated with this race is the one related to official ratings and the desired bracket is between 136 and 150. This accounts for all but one of the last ten winners, with Al Ferof having won off a mark of 159 four years ago. In terms of this year’s field it eliminates the top seven as they appear on the racecard (from Ballynagour down to Sizing Granite) as well as the bottom two Thomas Crapper and Potters Cross.When we consider the age of recent winners it is clear that seven-year-olds come out on top, having been successful in six of the last ten renewals. Unusually for this race there are only two seven-year-olds in this year’s lineup, Johnny Farrelly’s Stiletto and Rebecca Curtis’ Vintage Vinnie. Of the other four races in the last decade two have gone the way of six-year-olds which is a positive for the likes of Art Mauresque, Double Shuffle, Aso and As De Mee.
Weight can often play a big part in the outcome of competitive races such as this and the BetVictor Gold Cup is no exception. Of the last ten renewals only Al Ferof has carried more than 11st 5lb to victory which confirms that Ballynagour down to Sizing Granite are up against it.
Strong form on their most recent start is something that has served horses well in this race in the past. Seven of the last ten winners had finished no worse than fourth on their last start, something that all but four of this year’s field have in common. However, this stat has to be taken with a pinch of salt as many of these horses will be making their seasonal debuts on Saturday so recent form may be as far back as March or April.
In terms of trainers, there are three yards which have tasted success more than once in the last decade, they are Nigel Twiston-Davies (2008 & 2010), Jonjo O’Neill (2006 & 2013) and the Paul Nicholls yard (2012 & 2014). The first named is without a runner this year but it is worth taking a second look at runners from the other yards.
The final factor worthy of mention is the betting and historically this is not a race in which it is worth taking a punt on one at a big price. In fact six of the last ten winners were sent off at single figure SPs with Little Josh (20/1) the biggest priced winner in the last decade. More Of That currently leads the market at around 9/2 with the likes of Frodon, Double Shuffle and As De Mee also available at single-figure odds.
Shortlist
AS DE MEE – 5/6
Frodon – 5/6
Stilletto – 4/6
ConclusionWith all of the factors considered the one who comes out on top on the trends front is AS DE MEE. The six-year-old had some smart form as a novice last season chasing home the likes of More Of That and Bristol De Mai. His form somewhat tailed off after that although he did run better than his finishing position suggested in the Topham in April. He had a wind operation over the summer and had no trouble getting off the mark at Fontwell on his return to action last month. He sits towards the foot of the weights on 10st 8lb and with his wind operation seeming to have done the trick, he looks to have a leading chance.
As De Mee’s stablemate Frodon also makes the shortlist having also missed just one of the trends. Paul Nicholls’ gelding has made a fine start to his career over fences, winning his first three starts including the Grade 2 Rising Star Novices’ Chase at Wincanton last weekend. He ticks plenty of the trends boxes but one major obstacle he has to overcome is the age trend. We mentioned earlier that seven-year-olds held the upper hand in recent years but Frodon is bidding to become the first four-year-old winner of the race. He did jump a fence as a three-year-old in France so is perhaps a little more forward in his development than we would expect a four-year-old to be.
The final member of the shortlist is Stilletto who has his first run since leaving the yard of Paul Nicholls. Now in the care of Johnny Farrelly, he won twice over fences last term at Catterick and Leicester but fell early on at the Festival in March. The seven-year-old has only had the six starts over fences so far so there could still be more to come from the gelding.
MY Advice
AS DE MEE – 0.5pt e/w @ 9/1 (bet365, SkyBet)
3.00 Cheltenham – Regulatory Finance Solutions Handicap Hurdle (Listed Race)
This looks like one of the trickiest puzzles on the card, but looking at the past ten winners of the race, it becomes clear that no winner in that time has carried more than 10st 13lb. That’s some bad news for the ‘bigger names’ in this, such as Irish Saint, Fingal Bay and Out Sam, who begin their seasons over the smaller obstacles before presumably returning to Chasing. The Eaglehaslanded looks a bit harshly handicapped off 142 and although the decent ground and Jack Sherwood’s 5lb claim will help on that front, he might need to come down the weights a little to be a win contender.Allysson Monterg is a tough horse that I like – he finished sixth in the brutal Albert Bartlett Novices Hurdle at the Festival this year and if he’s come back from his break in good form, he might go well. He is carrying 11st 1lb and he’ll probably be better when the ground is softer, but Richard Hobson’s charge should give his running under Aidan Coleman.
Valhalla, Will O’ The West and Very Extravagant are the three current co-favourites at the time of writing and it’s easy to see why after all three showed plenty last time out. Valhalla was second in a competitive 2m 5f handicap won by Midnight Shot here three weeks ago, looking as if this step up in trip would suit, so off a 3lb higher mark, he looks sure to be involved at the business end.
Henry Daly’s Will O’ The West ran very well indeed in a Pertemps Qualifier over a furlong or so shorter here, just going down to Golden Doyen and For Good Measure, both very useful types. However, the 2lb rise he received is added to the loss of Jack Sherwood’s 5lb claim, so he’s gone up 7lb effectively. That makes it a tough ask to go and win here, even though he’s clearly a five-year-old on the up.
After bagging a hat trick of wins, Neil Mulholland’s Very Extravagant is certainly a mare going the right way, she’s been superb since she’s been stepped up to staying trips and is as genuine as they come. This trip will suit, as will the relatively sound surface and with no weight on her back, she could well be staying on nicely up the hill at the end. However, the same comment appears in all of her last three races – ‘a weak race’ – and this step up in class is certainly a significant one, so she could find that it’s a leap too far, no matter how genuine she is.
Some Kinda Lama, on the other hand, is going for the hat trick after landing two races over this trip at Hereford in October. Again, we’re looking at a significant rise in class of the company he’ll be racing against, but he’s in such good form, it’s hard to dismiss him. Charlie Mann had a winner at Cheltenham on Friday and who’s to say that he won’t make it two with an unexposed, progressive contender such as this five-year-old. The 8lb rise in the weights won’t help him though and he’ll probably prefer faster ground than the likely good to soft he’ll get here but five year olds have done fairly well over the past few years in this race despite a small sample size and he’s certainly one to consider each-way.
However, there is another five-year-old that looks to be in with a big chance in this and after a very creditable second to the well-handicapped Paddy Power (now Bet Victor) Gold Cup winner Caid Du Berlais at Aintree, GOODBYE DANCER is the selection. Nigel Twiston-Davies’ string is in good form at the moment, with Astracad winning here on Friday and Wholestone going close later in the day, so there are no worries there and this horse is certainly race-fit after 3 runs already this season. He races off the same mark as when second last week and retains the helpful 3lb claim of the excellent Jamie Bargary, who’s in very good form himself (6 winners, 4 places from last 17 rides). As just a five-year-old, it’s more than reasonable to expect further progression and improvement, so if he’s stepped up on that last effort, he has to have a huge chance of hitting the frame at the very least here – 16/1 certainly looks a generous offer.
MY Advice:
GOODBYE DANCER 1pt e/w @ 16/1 (BetVictor, Paddy Power)
3.35 Martin & Co Jewellers Intermediate Handicap Hurdle.
A competitive big field handicap hurdle which has been dominated by 5 and 6-year-olds in recent times, taking nine of the last 10 runnings. Black Corton is likely to be a popular selection for Champion trainer Paul Nicholls arriving here on the back of two wins. However, whilst he promises to stay this trip, this is his first try over this far. It is also his first run in a handicap against some hardened types who are proven off their current marks, so he does have some question marks to answer.Meme’s Horse is an interesting runner for Harry Fry but he only has two runs over hurdles to his name, so may prove vulnerable to some more streetwise rivals. Who Dares Wins is a likeable type and has plenty of experience, and whilst he ran a cracking race behind Ballyoptic in the Silver Trophy last time out, he it’s hard to see this four-year-old shouldering top weight to victory.
Traditional Dancer and Midnight Shot both arrive here gunning for a hat-trick of wins and cannot be overlooked lightly. The former has recent wins at Kelso and Carlisle to his name but he has a lot more on his plate here off an 8lb higher mark, in a stronger contest. The latter was an impressive winner over course and distance and looks the best place to add to his tally of wins. However, a 7lb rise puts him on a career high mark and could be vulnerable to something better handicapped.
Board Of Trade runs off the same mark as when second to a well-handicapped rival at Fontwell and is still unexposed. As is Emma Lavelle’s Fortunate George who was an impressive winner when last seen in April. He has 7lb higher mark to contend with on his seasonal debut but there could still be mileage in his mark and warrants the upmost respect if ready to roll.
For me the one horse that has the least question marks to answers is FOR GOOD MEASURE, a horse I have followed throughout his career being a brother to the stable’s Balthazar King. He has gone agonisingly close on his last two starts, being beaten a head and a short-head, and for me remains feasibly treated off a 3lb higher mark. He looked a shade keen on his seasonal debut at the course 21 days ago and the slight step down in trip looks a wise move. His RPR ratings have steadily improved on each of his last three runs and there is every reason he is still improving. JP McManus owned last season’s winner of the race and he looks to have a strong candidate again with this lad. At 9/1 he looks very solid each-way play in the race.
The main dangers could be Robin Of Locksley who ran a fine race from the back behind the Midnight Shot, and the 3lb pull in the weights should see him on the premises. Top Of The Town could also have a big say having finished just behind For Good Measure last time. A 2lb pull gives him every chance but I expect the selection to have more improvement in him.
MY Advice
FOR GOOD MEASURE – 1pt e/w @ 8/1 (SkyBet, BetVictor, Paddy Power) -
12.55 Cheltenham – The Glenfarclas Veterans’ Handicap Steeple Chase.
Realt Mor looks to have every chance on the back of a facile victory at Down Royal a week ago and deservedly heads the market. Now 11, Gordon Elliott’s charge has had a rough time of things since winning the Grade 1 Powers Gold Cup in 2013 but has shown that he retains some of his old ability with his latest victory and evidently arrives here in form. However, he now races off a mark of 140 with a 6lb penalty here and doesn’t look particularly well treated if you consider that he was beaten 31 lengths off 1lb lower at Perth back in June. He may still be well in but I’m willing to oppose him given how quickly he is turning out with the problems he has had.With this in mind, DUNRAVEN STORM is taken to run a big race and could well provide some solid each-way value. The now 11-year-old landed the Grade 2 Arkle Trial at this meeting two years ago and went on to finish a close second in the Grade 1 Henry VIII Novices’ Chase on his very next start. He went without a win until May this year when landing a valuable handicap chase at Kempton in good style and following a couple of below-par efforts, now find himself on only a 2lb higher mark. A line can be drawn through his pipe-opener at Chepstow last month as he usually improves for the run and although he steps into the unknown trip-wise, he has always shaped as though he would stay this far and an extended 2m4f could be the perfect tonic for him at this stage of his career.
Astracad has been mostly consistent throughout his career and should have his perfect conditions here with sound going underfoot. His form did tail off towards the end of last campaign but he has tended to be an early season horse in recent years and has gone very well fresh in the past, especially last season when getting the better of subsequent Old Roan scorer Third Intention in a competitive contest at Chepstow. He has dropped down to 1lb lower than that last winning mark here and this is just the kind of contest in which he can make his mark these days. He will likely be there or thereabouts.
Shuil Royale enters the contest in good form having struck in decent style at Aintree last month. A 6lb rise for that win sees him rise to a career-high mark of 149 and while he clearly arrives in good nick, conceding weight all round may well be a step too far in this company. The drop in trip is another concern for a horse that has been staying on well over three miles of late.
Nicky Henderson’s Ericht has been an enigma throughout his career. Plagued by injury, and temperament, issues, he has never really hit the heights since being sent off favourite for the 2011 Champion Bumper. Connections weren’t particularly confident about his chances even back then but have persevered with the now ten-year-old who never seems to run two races alike. He was an impressive winner at Kempton back in February but went completely off the boil after that and even his runner-up effort at Newbury wasn’t particularly inspiring. He could be entitled to come on for that however, for all that he remains a very risky proposition.
Bennys Mist is a likeable type but this is an altogether different test to that which he tends to excel. Venetia Williams’ charge seems to have a penchant for the National fences and while he doesn’t stay far enough for the big race itself, has finished runner-up in a Topham and landed the Grand Sefton last year. He is 8lb higher here but did put in a couple of good efforts at Ascot and in the Greatwood Gold Cup at Newbury off just 1lb lower and has the benefit of Charlie Deutsch’s 5lb claim taking some extra weight off his back. The suspicion is that this may just be a prep run before he heads back to Aintree.
Another who will likely have Aintree on his agenda is this year’s Topham winner Eastlake, although Jonjo O’Neill’s yardstick has proven effective around Cheltenham before. A mark of 148 looks as though the handicapper may have him in his grasp at present but conditions here will suit him much better than his opening gambit last month (was never going to stay 3m1f) and he does have a bit of class about him.
MY Advice
DUNRAVEN STORM – 1pt e/w @ 12/1 (SkyBet, William Hill)
1.30 Cheltenham – The BetVictor Handicap Steeple Chase.
Colin Tizzard is going very nicely at the moment, so it’s no surprise to see two entries from his stable in this valuable two-mile handicap chase. Both are new arrivals from Alan & Ann Potts having their first run for Tizzard after being moved from Henry De Bromhead, but despite an element of the unknown about both, it seems clear that Sizing Codelco is the higher-quality of the two, something a 5lb gap in the ratings doesn’t quite reflect. Bally Longford has run some fair races in defeat over the last couple of years and even defeated one of today’s opponents, Un Beau Roman, in a Galway handicap chase in August last year, but a mark of 136 seems very harsh on what he’s achieved more recently and unless Tizzard has unlocked something different in him, I find it difficult to see the eight-year-old contending at the business end.Sizing Codelco on the other hand, looks to be relatively fairly handicapped off a mark of 141, 4lb below the mark he raced off in the Grand Annual in March. Unfortunately, he threw JJ Burke off his back after a blunder at the first fence, but on the form of his second to Shaneshill and third off 140 behind Bright New Dawn and Rock The World in a Grade B Handicap Chase over two miles, he has to hold strong claims here. Any softening in the ground would be welcome for this seven-year-old, especially over this bare two mile trip and he’s a horse that has gone well fresh in the past so a break is no concern either. The worries with him lie in the jumping department – he’s fallen or unseated three times in his last eight runs over fences and he’ll need to keep his concentration better in a race where the pace is likely to be fairly strong with plenty of prominent racers involved. Also bear in mind that no top-weighted horse has won this in the past ten years, so even though he may be the best horse in the race long-term, he might be worth swerving at short prices here.
A winner of this race back in 2014, Bold Henry races off a mark 15lb higher (140) than that day here and hasn’t run a decent race over fences off a mark any higher than 134. However, on his best effort, he’d be in with a squeak and the booking of Barry Geraghty does give some confidence in the Philip Hobbs-trained gelding – if his jumping holds up, he’ll enjoy the fast pace to tow him into the race. He’ll need some more rain though, he carries a lot of weight and no ten-year-old has won this in the last ten years, so he would be a slightly surprising winner.
The recipient of an 8lb allowance by virtue of being a 4-y-o, David Pipe’s Impulsive American must come into the race with some hope of hitting the frame after spending the last few months in good form, never finishing worse than fourth in any discipline. He’s won twice on the flat, three times over hurdles and twice over fences in 2016 so clearly knows where the line is, but at Ayr last week, he finished well-beaten in third despite receiving a similar allowance in a seemingly weaker race. Unless he’s improved significantly from that, he’s hard to fancy here.
Tom Scudamore rides him instead of nine-year-old Next Sensation, who he usually partners for his father, Michael and that is a good indication of where the one time Cheltenham Festival winner is right now. Despite winning at Newton Abbot in September off a mark of 129, he’s become very inconsistent and has also found issues with his jumping, falling twice in his last six runs. He’s another who will want to be handy, but despite that, I find it hard to see him as a player in this, even though he’s hugely well handicapped on some of his form from last year.
De Faoithesdream is another experienced campaigner at the age of 10, but also falls into the ‘inconsistent’ category – he seems to either win or run terrible races. The Evan Williams-trained gelding was last seen winning a Listed handicap chase at Ayr off a mark of 128 and, like many of these, is best when he strides off the front. The jump up to a mark of 134, his highest ever, is not insurmountable, but it does make things much more difficult in a race where he’s not sure to get his own way.
Consistency has been the name of the game though, for Martin Todhunter’s seven-year-old, Monbeg River. He’s finished second on four of his last seven starts and won twice, so a rise in the weights from 105 to 129 doesn’t seem too harsh, even though he’s gone up 7lbs without winning in his last five starts. He was staying on well over the very sharp two miles at Wetherby last time out behind Owen Na View, giving that horse 4lb, so this test will suit better and the booking of Noel Fehily looks a good one. He’s steadily progressive, but whether he’s good enough to mix it at this level is the niggling doubt – it’s a big step up.
Over the years, we’ve seen that Irish entrants in this type of event at this time of year (see Rock The World last year, Black Warrior running well a few weeks ago as just two examples) are always ones to take a lot of notice of. Here, Barry John Murphy sends over his seven-year-old, PAIROFBROWNEYES, who has some very smart form in the book including a second placed finish to Sub Lieutenant at Limerick, who went on to beat Outlander in a Grade 2 Chase at Down Royal after. He was fifth on his seasonal reappearance in the Grade 2 PWC Champion Chase at Gowran Park, staying with some useful rivals such as Ballycasey, Road To Riches and The Game Changer until after the last when his lack of fitness told – that’s some pretty strong form in the context of this race. His decent third place in a 2m4f Grade A handicap chase at the Punchestown festival also reads well as it was won by subsequent Charlie Hall winner Irish Cavalier, again, just weakening late on as the distance stretched him a little. This return to shallower waters and a stiff two miles should be spot on and even though he’d love for the heavens to open, he’s no slouch on decent ground either. A mark of 136 might underestimate him and he wouldn’t be being sent over by a trainer with a very small string unless there was a good chance of coming back with some prize money – he looks a good each-way bet in a race that could be there for the taking.
MY Advice
PAIROFBROWNEYES - 1pt e/w @ 13/2 (BetVictor)
2.05 Cheltenham – The Steel Plate And Sections Novices’ Steeple Chase.
With a roll of honour boasting subsequent Gold Cup winners Denman and Imperial Commander in the last ten years, this is a contest that always gets the pulses racing and this year’s renewal looks to be another high quality affair.
Barters Hill will likely be a warm order and probably deserves his place at the head of the market. Unbeaten in his first seven starts, including the Grade 2 Champion bumper at Aintree and Grade 1 Challow Novices’ Hurdle at Newbury, Ben Pauling’s charge suffered his first defeat when fourth in the Albert Bartlett at this year’s Cheltenham Festival. He probably just didn’t quite get home there and shouldn’t be inconvenienced by the drop back to the extended 2m4f but this is a tough race to be making his chasing debut in and given the number of front runners in the field, it is unlikely that he will be able to bowl along in front as he would like.
With the likely strong pace on offer, it could prove a test of jumping which may well inconvenience the other two chasing debutants in the field. Sizing Tennessee was a fairly smart bumper horse earlier in his career with Willie Mullins and had reportedly schooled well over fences when with Henry de Bromhead. Now with Colin Tizzard, he could well prove a decent chaser but this looks a tough opener for a horse who has had his fitness issues over the years.
O O Seven completes the chasing debutants and he boasts some very smart form over the sticks having finished runner-up in a pair of Grade 1s earlier in the year. His inexperience may just catch him out here while the ground will likely be against him given the two times he has ran on good going, he has been well beaten (for all that they were in the Champion Bumper and Neptune Novices’ Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival).
His stablemate Theinval is a likely outsider but boasts the most experience over the larger obstacles. He shaped well for a long way at Chepstow last time out and will be winning races but looks up against to turn the tables on his re-opposing vanquisher Rock The Kasbah despite an 8lb pull at the weights.
Philip Hobbs’ charge looked supreme in winning on his chasing debut, travelling smoothly and jumping well in the main before finding another gear to forge clear on the run-in. That race looked to be a pretty tough early season contest on paper but he emerged head and shoulders clear of the opposition and entered many a notebook. However, he has the burden of the maximum 8lb penalty for that win and although I believe he can go far in the novice chasing ranks this year, conceding at least 3lb all round may be a step too far against this calibre of opposition.
Flying Angel fell in the contest won by Hobbs’ six-year-old but looked beaten when doing so and despite being a most progressive handicap hurdler last term, doesn’t look to have enough quality to get in the mix here. Therefore, ITS’AFREEBEE is the selection on the back of his debut chase win at Fakenham last month. He won in decent style, as he was entitled to, but it was the way he jumped that really caught the eye as he popped over every obstacle. Granted, his jumping wasn’t put to the test late on, but it still proved to be a decent pipe-opener. He had fairly inauspicious beginnings in bumpers in Ireland before being snapped up by Dan Skelton and embarked on a rapid progression culminating with victory in the Grade 2 Supreme Trial at Haydock. His only defeat on British soil came when a highly respectable third behind Yorkhill and Yanworth in the Neptune (when almost forced out) and with further progress expected, he can lay down a marker in the novice chasing ranks.
MY Advice
ITS’AFREEBEE – 1pt win @ 5/1 (General)
2.40 Cheltenham – The Neptune Investment Management Hyde Novices’ Hurdle Race (Grade 2)
This is perennially one of the most fascinating early season novices and, with a roll of honour including the likes of Coneygree, Black Jack Ketchum and Fingal Bay, while Blaklion, Reve de Sivola, Berties Dream, Wichita Lineman and Imperial Commander have all finished in the frame in the last ten years, it really is a race where the notebooks must be out!
Champion Court is the only winner since the race achieved Grade 2 status not to have a hurdles win to his name (it would have proved difficult given he had only competed in two bumpers!) and given the quality of the race, it would prove difficult for a maiden to prevail. Of the two that fall into this category in this year’s renewal, Nicky Henderson’s Baden has the strongest credentials given he does have an Irish point win to his name and he did produce some decent displays over the sticks last season. However, his jumping left a bit to be desired at Punchestown last time out and he can’t afford to make any mistakes in this company.
Bally Gilbert was a warm order ahead of his British debut back in April but was just found out for a bit of toe over an extended two miles in a Market Rasen bumper having tried to lead from pillar to post. That was probably to be expected given he had stayed on well in a pair of Irish points and he should be more suited to the trip here. The form of his bumper second has been franked with the winner going in under a penalty subsequently but a contest of this nature is no easy starting point going hurdling.
The Irish have been out of luck in the Hyde Novices’ Hurdle with not even a single victory to their name since its inception back in 1996. Powerhouses the likes of Gordon Elliott and Willie Mullins have sent challengers over and failed which doesn’t bode well for the pair of Irish raiders lining up here. On official ratings, Crosshue Bay looks to have a lot to find with the rest of the field but was travelling well at Punchestown last time out when brought down and does have the benefit of Davy Russell (who has 100% strike-rate on the six-year-old) in the saddle.
Peter Fahey’s Peregrine Run boasts the best form in the book having stayed on well to score at Listed level at Limerick last month. He only broke his maiden at the end of August at the seventh attempt but has gone from strength to strength since then. A sound surface seems to be the key to him so conditions should be ideal but there may just be a few less exposed improvers in the field.
In the eight years the Hyde has been run as a Grade 2, only Fingal Bay (who went on to win the Grade 1 Challow Novices’ Hurdle two starts later) has managed to shoulder the top penalty to victory. It could well prove to be a difficult task once more but Wholestone has improved immeasurably on the drying ground and fully deserves his place in the line-up. The five-year-old showed a great attitude to win in a 3m novice at the Showcase Meeting and is clearly well thought of by connections but the drop in trip wouldn’t seem the obvious move and is 3lb wrong at the weights with the re-opposing West Approach.
The 3lb pull puts Colin Tizzard’s charge on an even footing with his old adversary but he is another that would probably be more effective over further. That being said, although he remained a maiden all last season, he broke his duck in fine style over 2m1f at Newton Abbot back in May in a race that has worked out very well with the runner-up Ozzie The Oscar hosing up at Wetherby recently and the third-placed Black Corton going in twice subsequently, including in a Listed novice hurdle at Kempton. He is one of the more experienced competitors in the field and could run a big race.
Leith Hill Lad was easy to back at Kempton last time out but forged clear in eye-catching fashion and justified favouritism to win by a length from Lough Derg Leader. The runner-up boosted the form when winning at Bangor on Wednesday but he looks a little bit short of the quality required to take this contest.
Of altogether more interest is SPIRITOFTHEGAMES who remains unbeaten after a win in an Irish point and a dominant display in a maiden hurdle at Ayr last time out. He passed through the ring at the Goffs UK Spring Sale in May for a reasonable £50,000 and went some way to repaying that back when creating a grand impression on debut for Dan Skelton last month. It was an even more striking performance given that most of Skelton’s have come on for the run and leaves it only to the imagination as to how good he can be. Barring a minor mistake at the last, his jumping was proficient throughout and he kicked on in some style to put the race to bed on the run-in. This is a big step up but he escapes a penalty and receiving weight from the majority of the field (7lb in some cases) makes him a major player.
Fellow four-year-old Pilansberg could prove to be the biggest danger if he puts it all together over hurdles. The ex-French campaigner changed hands for 100,000gns at Tattersalls last October having finished third in a Group 2 on the level for David Smaga at the Arc meeting earlier that month. He rated a fascinating recruit to the national hunt ranks but mistakes put paid to his chances when pitched in at the deep end in the Grade 2 Adonis Hurdle at Kempton in February and he was subsequently put away for the summer. His jumping was better when scoring on his return at Fakenham but there was still room for improvement and he showed distinct signs of greenness, which is a tad bemusing given he had run 11 times on the flat. His ability is undoubted but this may just come too soon for him at this stage of his hurdling career.
MY Advice
SPIRITOFTHEGAMES – 1pt win @ 11/2 (BetVictor & Paddy Power)
3.50 Cheltenham – Markel Insurance Amateur Riders´ Handicap Chase.
The final race on the first day of the meeting sees the amateur riders take centre stage and the weights are headed by Silvergrove, who was last seen finishing third in Kim Muir over 3m2f at the Festival. Prior that that, Ben Pauling’s eight-year-old had been progressing nicely, winning twice at Newbury and Kempton and in truth, he didn’t lose much in defeat behind a ready winner in Cause Of Causes. He returns here off just 1lb higher and whilst I wouldn’t be surprised to see him in the mix, I think he could find it difficult to concede weight to some of the less exposed members of the field.
A glance at the recent roll of honour suggests than it is often the better known jockeys who come out on top in this contest. Whether that is down to their riding ability or the fact that they tend to be on the better horses I’m not sure but it is certainly a factor worth considering. In this year’s field there are a couple of familiar names including Jamie Codd, who partners Fayette County for Tim Vaughan. The nine-year-old has always been thought highly of by connections but he has largely found it difficult to find his way into the Winner’s Enclosure. However, he managed just that at Worcester last time, rallying gamely under pressure to get up in the shadow of the post. He has gone up 5lb for that effort and with Codd taking over from 3lb conditional Alan Johns, he is effectively up 8lb so from a handicapping point of view I think he has plenty on his plate.
Katie Walsh also heads over from the Emerald Isle to partner James Nash’s Your Busy who was second at Aintree on his most recent outing. Despite being at the ripe old age of 13, the gelding has turned in two solid efforts on his last two starts, having finished a close third to Double Ross at Chepstow the time before. Both of those runs came in veterans’ races but they were both competitive affairs and if he reproduced those efforts here, he wouldn’t be too far away.
Sam Waley-Cohen is of course no stranger to success at Cheltenham and he gets the leg up on Charlie Longsdon’s KILFINICHEN BAY. The eight-year-old last got his head in front at Warwick in September and the form of that race has worked out well, with the runner-up Master Dee having won twice since. Longsdon’s gelding couldn’t build on that at Kelso last time but he likes to be held up and I think this big-field scenario will play to his strengths here. He has won off his current mark of 135 in the past and with the stable very much amongst the winners, I think he has a solid each-way chance.
There are a number of others who need a mention including David Pipe’s Top Wood who has been given a chance by the handicapper. He was rated as high as 144 when tenth in the Summer Cup at Uttoxeter but a modest display over an inadequate trip last time has seen the nine-year-old dropped to a mark of 136. Pipe has booked crack Irish amateur Lisa O’Neill to ride and having taken this race twice in the last decade, he looks to have a leading chance this time around.
Troika Steppes loves it around here and was seen to good effect when making just about all to win over course and distance in October. Ali Sterling seems to get a good tune out of the eight-year-old but the handicapper has put him up 9lb for his latest effort and that could make life difficult. Robert Walford’s Saint Raph also arrives in from having won on his final two starts of last season. He is up 11lb for his ready success at Taunton in April, which looks harsh enough considering there were just the five runners and the second hasn’t done much since.
Godsmejudge won the Scottish Grand National off a mark of 139 back in 2013 and whilst he has sparingly shown that sort of form in the last two years, he could be thrown in here on a mark of 122. However, the most interesting runner in the field could be Tony Martin’s Our Sox who gets in here on 10st 2lb. He was just held at Musselburgh last week but travelled well for a long way under Denis O’Regan and he has next to no weight on his back here. His trainer is renowned as a shrewd placer of horses and although he needs to step up again to win here, he can’t be ruled out.
MY Advice
KILFINICHEN BAY – 0.5pt e/w @ 14/1 (BetVictor, Paddy Power -
MESSIRE DES OBEAUX gets his season underway in the Bathgate Group Handicap Hurdle (3.00 Bangor ]. Alan King’s four-year-old showed signs of ability on his first two starts in Britain and his trainer has high hopes for the gelding this term. He starts off the season on a mark of 128 which he should be able to improve upon as the season goes on and it is interesting that he steps up to 2m4f for the first time here. I mentioned in my initial brief about him that he didn’t really pick up in the Fred Winter and whilst I think he will prefer softer ground, I think the step up in trip is also likely to bring about further improvement.
In terms of the opposition, Tom Symonds’ Foxcub has won the last two renewals of this race and is fit from a run on the flat two or three weeks ago. He sits just 1lb higher than last year’s winning mark but I find it hard to see him conceding 7lb to messire des obeaux. Tornado In Milan is another who isn’t much higher than his last winning mark and with the Evan Williams yard amongst the winners, he is respected. However, the biggest danger could come from Dan Skelton’s Rene’s Girl who may have found Listed company too hot to handle when last seen in April but prior to that she had some useful novice form. She gets 5lb from Alan King’s gelding and she looks the one we need to fear most. However, I think there is plenty to like about our lightly-raced four-year-old and with the King stable having made a flying start to the new campaign, I suggest siding with him in this contest.
MY Advice
MESSIRE DES OBEAUX – 2pts win @ 11/8 (bet365
-
BET VICTOR GOLD CUP TRENDS 2016 --[ thanks to racecaller for the use of these trends ]
The Bet Victor Gold Cup takes place on Saturday 12th November and is the highlight of Cheltenham’s Open meeting, which runs from the 11th to 13th November. Run over 2M 4½F, it’s a handicap chase which attracts some of the best staying chasers out there, having been won by Our Vic, Exotic Dancer, Imperial Commander and Al Ferof in recent years. In 2010 Long Run finished 3rd in this en route to winning the Gold Cup.
Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:
Age (Win-Place-Runners)
5yo: 1-3-13
6yo: 2-6-30
7yo: 6-9-55
8yo: 1-4-44
9yo: 0-8-27
10yo: 0-0-10
11yo+: 0-0-6
Horses aged 5 to 7: 9-18-98
Horses aged 8+: 1-12-87
None of the 16 horses aged 10+ to run in past 10 years have made the places.
Weight (Win-Place-Runners)
Horses carrying 11-4 or more: 1-5-41
Horses carrying 10-13 to 11-3: 5-7-38
Horses carrying 10-12 or less: 4-18-106
5 of 10 winners carried 10-13 to 11-3, and that weight band represented just over 20% of the runners. Al Ferof (in 2012) has been only winner to carry over 11-3 in past 10 years.
Top Weight: FPP65PPP423 (0-3-11)
Official Ratings
Horses rated 150 or higher: 1-9-52
Horses rated 139 to 149: 9-13-99
Horses rated 138 or less: 0-8-34
9 of 10 winners were officially rated 139 to 149 from 53.5% of total runners.
Recent/Past Form
6 of 10 winners had previously won at Cheltenham (1 exception placed at previous 2 Cheltenham Festivals)
9 of 10 winners had won a chase over 2M 3F to 2M 6F (exception had won a 3M point to point wand was 3rd in a grade 1 over 2M 4F on only chase start over further than 2M 1F)
10 of 10 winners had won a chase at class 2 or better
5 of 10 winners had won a listed or graded chase (3 of 5 exceptions were placed in a grade 1 hurdle, one other placed in listed handicap chase)
4 of 10 winners were having their seasonal debut (other 6 had run once that season, 4 winning, 1 finished 2nd and other 7th in Galway Plate)
5 of 6 winners to carry 10-12+ posted an RPR of 146+ on last completed start
10 of 10 winners had run less than 10 times over fences
10 of 10 winners had run in 7 or fewer handicap chases
10 of 10 winners were second or third season chasers
8 of last 9 British-trained winners had previous start at Cheltenham, Carlisle or Aintree
Other Races
Previous season's winner (Annacotty): 2 (0-1-1)
Highest placed finisher from Close Brothers Novices' Handicap Chase: P12F3P535 (1-3-9)
Record of first 7 from Close Brothers Novice H'cap Chase: P061P2F1F23P52106305 (3-5-20)
Raymond Mould Memorial Novice Chase winner (More Of That): 14 (1-1-2)
Previous year's Steel Plate And Sections Novice Chase winner (More Of That): 1P (1-0-2)
Freebets.co.uk Trophy H'cap Chase winner (Annacotty): 7061 (1-0-4)
Racing FX Prelude Handicap Chase winner (Vintage Vinnie): P0 (0-0-2)
Previous December Gold Cup winner (Village Vic): 5UP (0-0-3)
BetBright Best For Festival Betting Handicap Chase winner (Village Vic): PPPP7 (0-0-5)
3 of 8 second season chaser winners ran in previous year's Steel Plate & Sections Novice Chase, finishing 31F
3 of 8 second season chaser winners ran in the Colin Parker Memorial Intermediate Chase, finishing 211
3 of 8 second season chaser winners ran in Close Brothers Novice Handicap Chase, finishing 167
2 of 2 third season chaser winners ran in Ultima Business Solutions Handicap Chase, finishing F0
2 of 10 winners (2 of last 5) ran in John Smith's H'cap Chase at Aintree, finishing 63
7 of 10 winners ran in a chase at that year's Cheltenham Festival
Trainers
Paul Nicholls (2-3-20) saddled the winner in 2012 & 2014.
Jonjo O’Neill (2-2-12) trained Exotic Dancer to win this in 2006 & John’s Spirt to win it in 2013 and finish 2nd in 2014.
Alan King (1-3-10) trained Annacotty to win this in 2015.
The Pipe stable (1-1-14) have accounted for 4 of the last 14 winners of the race with Martin Pipe taking 3 and David Pipe (1-1-14) training Great Endeavour to win it in 2011.
Nicky Henderson (0-6-19) & Phillip Hobbs (0-2-8) have both had multiple placed finishers since 2006.
Jamie Snowden (0-1-1) & Malcolm Jefferson (0-1-3) have both saddled a placed finisher in last 2 years.
Irish based trainers (1-2-18) had a very poor recent record up until Tranquil Sea’s win in 2009, which was the first Irish success in the last since 1980.
Price
8 of 10 winners were priced between 11/2 and 12/1
The favourite has won this 5 times since 2000 but only once in last 10 years.
Favourites (1-3-10) have gained just 1 win and 3 places from 10 runners since 2006 and show a £1 level stakes loss of £3.50.
Summary:
Based on trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
- Aged 5 to 7
- Officially rated 139 to 149
- Having first run of the season or finished in first 2 in Colin Parker Memorial Chase
- Had previous start at Cheltenham, Carlisle or Aintree
- Previously won a chase at Cheltenham
- Won a class 2 or better chase over 2M 4F to 2M 6F
- Second or third season chaser (preferably 2nd season chaser)
- Previously run less than 10 times over fences
- Run in 7 or fewer handicap chases
- First 3 in 2015 Steel Plate & Sections Novice Chase or December Gold Cup
- Ran in a chase at the 2016 Cheltenham Festival
- Finished in first 7 in Close Brothers Novice Handicap Chase
- Trained in Great Britain
- Trained by Paul Nicholls, Alan King or Jonjo O’Neill
-
autour has died in freak accident at Mullins yard
By Tony O'Hehir 4:52PM 6 NOV 2016
THREE-TIME Cheltenham Festival winner Vautour has died after a freak accident at Willie Mullins' yard.
"He broke a foreleg and has had to be put down," his trainer told the Racing Post on Sunday evening.
The seven-year-old was the 8-1 second favourite to add the 2017 Timico Gold Cup to his Supreme (2014), JLT (2015) and Ryanair (2016) festival successes.
The five-time Grade 1 winner was victorious on ten of his 16 career starts and only finished out of the first two once, when falling at Aintree in the Grade 1 JLT Melling Chase.
More to follow
My Ante-post Diary
in At The Races - Racing Forum
Posted
MY ANTE-POST DIARY -2016/2017
PART 6
Gold Cup
The man who seems to be holding all of the cards in the Gold Cup picture is Colin Tizzard who has the top two in the betting in the shape of Thistlecrack and Native River. On Sunday, he confirmed the plan was to take the favourite back to Cheltenham for the Cotswold Chase at the end of the month, whilst the stable’s Welsh National hero may now head straight to the Gold Cup.
However Tizzard also raised the possibility of having two more runners in the Gold Cup, with a decision on Cue Card’s participation likely to hinge on how he fares when dropped back in trip in the Ascot Chase. The other possible for the race is the seven-year-old Alary who was placed in two Grade 1 chases in his native France in 2016 and is yet to race for the Tizzard team. He could make his debut for the yard in the Denman Chase at Newbury before having a go at the Gold Cup.
Meanwhile, at this stage the Gigginstown representatives look likely to be Outlander and Valseur Lido with Eddie O’Leary admitting that last year’s winner Don Cossack faces a long road ahead of him as he bids to defend his crown. Don Poli who finished second to Outlander in the Lexus is more likely to head to Aintree for the Grand National, with connections unsure whether he has the requisite class to land a Gold Cup.
Champion Hurdle
The Champion Hurdle picture continues to be a little murky with the top two in the market yet to make their seasonal reappearances. Last week I mentioned that Rich Ricci had indicated that the Irish Champion Hurdle would be Faugheen’s starting point and it looks as though he will be joined in the race by runaway Ryanair Hurdle winner Petit Mouchoir.
It also looks as though it is the likely starting point for Jezki, whose trainer Jessica Harrington admitted “he just wasn’t right” prior to the Christmas Hurdle and hence they have decided to give the nine-year-old a little more time. Despite returning over two miles however, the indications are that he will still go down the 3m route this term, so still has the World Hurdle on his agenda.
Novice Hurdlers
Supreme
Having put up Cilaos Emery at 12/1 with SkyBet last week, it is always good to see that price disappear and he is now only 10/1 with that firm. Admittedly, he can still be backed at 12/1 with a couple of firms but at least we have the security of No Runner No Bet, especially as we know how late his trainer likes to leave it before finalising plans.
Looking ahead to the weekend, we may get a couple of clues in the Tolworth Hurdle at Sandown on Saturday with Paul Nicholls’ Capitaine the ante-post favourite to follow up his Ascot success. The list of potential rivals includes Colin Tizzard’s Finian’s Oscar who made a winning start at Hereford last month, last season’s Aintree bumper winner Kayf Grace and dual winner Charlemar. Perhaps one of these will point their name into consideration for the Supreme like last year’s winner Yorkhill did.
Neptune
Despite a possible drop back in trip on Saturday, Finian’s Oscar has attracted support for the Neptune in recent days with Sportingbet now the only firm to have the five-year-old as big as 20/1.
This market has had something of a shake-up in recent days with Robin Roe, who was second favourite in most books prior to the weekend, having fallen in the Challow Hurdle at Newbury at the weekend. Dan Skelton’s five-year-old hadn’t been asked for much when coming down at the third last but unfortunately he was found to have chipped a bone in his knee and is likely to miss the remainder of the campaign.
The winner of the race in question was Alan King’s Messire Des Obeaux who was never far from the leaders and having been sent into the lead at the second last, he stayed on strongly in the closing stages to win by two lengths. He seems to be improving all the time and is now likely to head to Cheltenham for the Neptune Trial on Trials Day, which will determine where he goes at the Festival. He is currently a general 12/1 shot for the Neptune and around 20/1 for the Albert Bartlett.
Another winner on the Newbury card who may have thrown his hat into the ring for the Neptune is William Henry who made no mistake having been sent off at short odds. The seven-year-old returned from a lengthy absence to finish second at Cheltenham in December behind Pingshou and made light work of his rivals here. This was over 2m but Nicky Henderson indicated afterwards that he likely needs further and he was introduced at 33/1 with SkyBet and Coral.
The following day at Cheltenham, Coo Star Sivola justified market support to land one of the trials for the Neptune. The five-year-old stayed on strongly up the hill but despite being given quotes of 33/1, his trainer suggested that the Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys’ race was a more likely option for him.
One final one to mention who could also head down the handicap route is Philip Hobbs’ No Comment who successfully carried a double penalty to success at Plumpton yesterday. The six-year-old already had a mark of 133 prior to his latest success and whilst the Neptune looks a big ask, it would be no surprise to see him take high rank in something like the Martin Pipe or the Coral Cup.
Triumph
Newbury’s Juvenile Hurdle on Saturday has thrown up some smart performers in recent years and this year’s renewal went the way of Warren Greatrex’s Final Choice who improved on his second on debut at Warwick to win impressively. The only error of note came at the third flight but despite looking as though he would be caught on the run to the last, he found plenty for pressure in the closing stages to win going away under Gavin Sheehan. The Triumph was mentioned as a long-term aim for him but the bookmakers weren’t overly impressed as he was introduced at 66/1 with a number of firms.
Up at Musselburgh on Sunday, Project Bluebook got off the mark at the second attempt over hurdles when getting the better of the Irish raider Warp Factor. John Quinn’s three-year-old reversed the form with Nietzche and looks to have taken well to this new discipline. I suspect that the Triumph may be flying a bit high but if he continues his improvement, then something like the Fred Winter could be on his agenda.
Novice Chasers
Arkle
Warwick was the setting for Buveur D’Air’s second start over the larger obstacles and whilst he got the job done, I couldn’t help feeling a little disappointed afterwards. Although we didn’t see much of his debut at Haydock, the way he quickened up in the closing stages was taking and I was expecting something similar as he loomed alongside his main rival at the second last. His jumping on the whole was a little low and he also made a mistake at the penultimate fence when moving through to challenge. He had plenty in hand at the line but he will need to be better if he is to make the grade in this sphere and at present he remains a possible for the JLT as well as the Arkle.
JLT
The Dipper Novices’ Chase at Cheltenham on Sunday looked likely to give us some Festival clues and it didn’t disappoint as Whisper got the better of Clan Des Obeaux following a prolonged duel from the home turn. Nicky Henderson’s nine-year-old found plenty for pressure under Davy Russell and having now won his last two starts, he looks a live contender for both this race and the RSA in March.
It must be said that Clan Des Obeaux may well have won but for a mistake at the second last which stopped the five-year-old’s momentum. To his credit, he didn’t give in and battled well up the hill but just couldn’t reel in the leader. That was only the seventh start in his life to date and with it still being early days with him, I could see him reversing the form if the pair met again.
A little later in the afternoon, Colin Tizzard’s Robinsfirth got off the mark at Exeter, outstaying his rivals to win by five lengths at the line. A runner-up on his debut at Wincanton, he led for much of the way having been left in front at the first and came nicely clear on the run-in. His trainer nominated the Novices’ Handicap on Cheltenham Trials Day as his next target but should he win well there, then perhaps the JLT would come into the equation.
Another who could be heading down the handicap route at the Festival is Baron Alco who won for the second time over fences at Plumpton yesterday. The drop back to 2m1f wasn’t ideal but Jamie Moore set out to make it a test on the six-year-old and he had enough to see of Solatentif in the closing stages. His task was made slightly easier with main market rival Laissez Dire falling at the ninth and in doing so suffered a fatal injury. Gary Moore immediately nominated the 2m4f Novice Handicap Chase at Cheltenham on the Tuesday as Baron Alco’s Festival target and having run well behind Whisper there in December, he could have a good chance.
Misc Races
Champion Bumper
Willie Mullins introduced two smart bumper horses at the weekend, the first of which was Redhotfillypeppers who went some way to repaying her £200,000 price tag when winning at Punchestown on Saturday. The five-year-old looks a chaser in the making and made under owner David Dunsdon to win going away at the line. It is worth bearing in mind that this was over 2m2f so this race may not be on the cards, but she looks a smart prospect nonetheless.
One who is more likely to line up at Cheltenham is Next Destination who also made a winning start at Fairyhouse on Sunday. The five-year-old was always going well under Patrick Mullins and was just pushed out under hands and heels to win on this occasion. His trainer mentioned afterwards how straightforward he was and he is likely to target a winners’ bumper next. He was introduced at a general 20/1 for the Champion Bumper.
At this stage, the best of the British contingent looks to be Western Ryder who won the Listed bumper at Ascot a few weeks ago. Warren Greatrex has now stated that he will now go straight to the Festival and if he can improve, he looks the most likely British winner at this stage.
Bets
I have no bets to advise this week.
Ante-Post Portfolio
JEZKI (Stayers Hurdle) – 1pt e/w @ 14/1 (bet365, Betfred)
CHARBEL (JLT Novices’ Chase) – 0.5pt e/w @ 33/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook)
CILAOS EMERY (Supreme Novices) – 1pt e/w @ 12/1 NRNB (Sky Bet)
NATIVE RIVER (Gold Cup) –1pt e/w @ 9/1 (Betway