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Bathtime For Rupert

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Posts posted by Bathtime For Rupert

    Racing Chat - Wednesday 16th June

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    All prices Bet365 and all 1pt e/w:

    2.30 Ascot - Instinctive Move @ 15/2 - well on top at the finish at Bath despite running against some solid yardsticks with experience. Hit the line hard which is important in races such as this today and its dam was most progressive, including being decent at 2, so lots to like with natural improvement from first to second run.

     

    3.05 Ascot - Secret Protector @ 22/1 - clearly held by the favourite on the form of last time out but worth remembering that this one was odds on to win that day and suddenly there's a huge chasm between the prices. This one doesn't have a great deal of pace but gallops on and the way this race is set up should suit better. Its form from two starts back is strong, I think any rain that does fall will definitely help and I can see him making the frame.

     

    3.40 Ascot - Twisted Reality @ 10/1 - loads of these competed at Newbury on their most recent start and I thought Twisted Reality looked the one who would improve most for the extra two furlongs today. Was outpaced before staying on powerfully late on from a beaten position and given the stamina on her dam's side, this test should really suit. Is quite a big filly so should come on plenty for that run and I think she can turn the tables on those that finished ahead of her that day.

     

    4.15 Ascot - Princess Zoe @ 28/1 - hasn't had the rain that she would have liked but not going to pile into Stradivarius and not sure any of the others appeal at the prices so will chance that she can outstay a few of these and potentially make the frame. If the rain falls today, the better chance she has of doing so.

     

    5.00 Ascot - Mithras @ 11/2 - a very unoriginal selection and I'll probably play one at a bigger price closer to the off but Mithras has rock solid form in the book including when beating Movin Time in a novice race. Beat Saint Lawrence (who franked the form next time) at Newbury over 7f when shaping like a mile was ideal and he just floundered a bit when keen on soft last time out in a listed race. There's still scope off this mark under these conditions and with a clear run I think he wins this, for all it's a mammoth field.

     

    5.35 Ascot - Surefire @ 6/1 - is well treated under a penalty for winning 10 days ago and looks sure to win again off his new mark so I think it's time to strike while the iron is hot. Was second to Siskany a couple of starts back which makes this mark look decent and then won readily over 1m2f on handicap debut. Is from a family of strong stayers so will improve further for the extra yardage and looks rock solid here.

     

    6.10 Ascot - Danyah @ 10/1 - Consistent type who has shaped like 7f would really suit in good races of late. Needs the splits but sure to be there on recent evidence. 

    Racing Chat - Wednesday 16th June

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    All prices Bet365 and all 1pt e/w:

    2.30 Ascot - Mas Poder @ 18/1

    Clearly highly thought of having made her debut in a listed race at York, up against some smart fillies with experience and winning form. She was a huge eyecatcher that day, showing good speed throughout and whilst still being inexperienced, knuckled down well late on to not be beaten far. I thought she was the one to take out of the race and with natural improvement for the outing, looks a big price here.

    3.05 Ascot - Arturo Toscanini @ 12/1

    Weak in the market but will still chance the O'Brien second string here. He's run two good races out of three but generally looks pretty slow over 1m2f - staying on having been outpaced for 2nd when last seen in a decent race over in Ireland. Looks very much like he'll come into his own over further (full sibling is a 2 mile winner) and whilst he has to prove himself on quicker ground (flop at Newmarket can't solely be put down to that), I think he's overpriced here.

    3.40 Ascot - Champers Elysees @ 17/2

    Has to bounce back from a low key start to this season but she should be spot on fitness wise now and if returning to the form of last season, she'd have a favourite's chance here. She clearly goes on deep ground but she's got an excellent turn of foot and I just wonder if she doesn't want a slog like she had last time out. This quicker ground and less emphasis on stamina could just suit and I'll chance her based on that.

    4.20 Ascot - Sangarius @ 16/1

    Clearly has a bit to find and things need to drop right for him but he's definitely smart on his day. I think he'll be ridden close to the pace here in a small field and does have the speed to quicken from the front, with his best career performance coming at this track. Not sure he was fully wound up at Chester when behind Armory and floundered having set a quick pace on soft ground at Sandown last time. Was picked up by Euchen Glen there but went like the winner and that horse ran really well yesterday on unsuitable ground so the form looks okay. Could be a bit of a funny race with an uncertain gallop and I just think this horse is worth a small go at the price.

    5.00 Ascot - Irish Admiral @ 16/1 and Ouzo @ 50/1

    Concerned about the draw for Irish Admiral but I think he's sure to win a good race soon - was caught out of his ground at Epsom last time and couldn't ever really get involved but I'm happy to forgive him that considering the promise he showed at York the time before. Travelled all over them over 1m2f that day and although not finding as much as it looked like he might, looked a good horse and the return to a mile on quick ground today should suit. 

    I wouldn't be surprised if high draws dominated, however, and I'm going to give Ouzo a chance each-way from under the stands rail. I hope he returns to front-running tactics here after a no-show when last seen and he's pretty consistent in this sort of race without winning and could just go well at a huge price.

    5.35 Ascot - Spring is Sprung @ 20/1

    The Wesley Ward runner may again prove too speedy but the royal runner looks overpriced to me having won well at Windsor last time with a couple of horses in behind going on to run big races since. This one is a half sibling to Collinsbay and Kings Lynn so ought to be a smart sprinter in time and looks like an improving sort who will come on again for its effort when last seen. 20/1 looks a big each-way price.

    6.10 Ascot - Dalanijujo @ 28/1

    Wide open race which looks to have plenty of pace in it so I expect them to go a good gallop here and that could bring the best out of Mick Channon's runner who has been operating at a lower level but is a free-going sort who looks best over a stiff mile with a strong pace to run off. Has to step up on its latest win but the handicap mark isn't climbing out of reach and at a price I can see it going well.

    Racing Chat - Tuesday June 15th

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    All prices Bet365 and all 1pt e/w:

    Have a good one folks...

    2.30 Ascot - Regal Reality @ 20/1

    Palace Pier is clearly the most likely winner but I'm surprised at the price of Regal Reality. He's 4th in here on official ratings and has done little wrong in recent seasons. Ran well fresh at the meeting last year which alleviates some concerns about the absence this season and a strongly-run mile is ideal for him. Split Kameko and Benbatl when he was last seen - form which would see him in the mix here - and I think has solid claims of making the frame at a price.

    3.05 Ascot - Berkshire Shadow @ 12/1

    Wide open race in reality but I was taken by the performance of Berkshire Shadow on debut at Newbury - blew the start, giving his main rivals a 4 or 5 length head start over the minimum trip but still showed a good turn of foot to get on top late in the day. The fact he went off at 9/2 yet hit 70/1 in running tells you a lot about its winning effort and although some horses haven't franked the form, he had the second favourite for this race in behind him that day. 6f shouldn't be an issue on that evidence and clearly has some tactical speed so looks a lively contender. 

    3.40 Ascot - Stone of Destiny @ 20/1

    Has a mountain to climb on figures but I'm not overly strong on any of those at the head of the market and this looks like it's going to be run at an insane gallop with an abundance of blastaway types in the field. Whilst the competition may be too much for this one, the way the race is run might just help him raise his game as he'll thrive coming off an all out pace. Has been an eyecatcher on just about all of its runs this season, goes well here and could run on late in the day to make the frame.

    4.20 Ascot - La Barrosa @ 20/1

    This horse has been weak in the market but I'm not entirely sure why. He's twice been beaten on soft ground but his dam didn't like the surface either and it's hard to knock his form otherwise. Won pretty impressively on his first two starts before failing on bottomless ground in France but bounced back to be narrowly denied by Master of the Seas at Newmarket on seasonal reappearance. The pair were 3 lengths clear and the winner was short headed out of the 2000 Guineas next time out. On that evidence, there's little between Poetic Flare and La Barrosa (for all the former finished ahead on deep ground in Ireland) on their runs on decent ground so with one at 4/1 and the other 20s, I'll happily put some faith in La Barrosa back on this surface.

    5.00 Ascot - Solo Saxophone @ 33/1

    There's no getting away from the fact that this horse is slow but the extra four furlongs here really ought to suit and he should be staying on at the finish. Could never get involved over 2 miles last time on decent ground (probably needs slow ground over that trip) but was plugging on past beaten horses and should be fully fit now. The ground may not be ideal but stamina will be drawn out even more today and he remains on a decent enough mark on last year's excellent form and just looks an interesting outsider.

    5.35 Ascot - Juan Elcano @ 20/1

    Usually runs his race without winning in decent company but this would be one of its less demanding assignments and could improve for wind surgery. Ran a bit fresh on his seasonal reappearance in the Doncaster Mile but still wasn't beaten that far by Top Rank and bits and pieces of his form from last season would give him solid hopes here. Did best of those on the pace at this meeting last year and if settling a bit better today back at 1m2f, I think he's likely to run his race and potentially make the frame.

    6.10 Ascot - Hochfeld @ 25/1

    Typical Mark Johnston type who can throw in the odd stinker but most of those (including last time out) have come on soft ground and I'm prepared to give him the chance to bounce back on a sounder surface here. Was previously in good form and will relish an end-to-end gallop under these conditions. Is well drawn in stall 5 to get a decent position and whilst he doesn't hold anything from the handicapper, is weighted to be bang there if on a going day and looks a big price if forgiving him his last run. 

    EURO 2020 Competition - Prediction Thread

    in Football Tipster Competition

    Posted

    1 Friday June 11th 8pm Turkey Vs Italy (A) (1-2) 
    2 Saturday June 12th 2pm Wales Vs Switzerland (A) (1-2)
    3 Saturday June 12th 5pm Denmark Vs Finland (B) (2-0)
    4 Saturday June 12th 8pm Belgium Vs Russia (B) (2-0)
    5 Sunday June 13th 2pm England Vs Croatia (D) (2-1)
    6 Sunday June 13th 5pm Austria Vs North Macedonia (C) (2-1)
    7 Sunday June 13th 8pm Netherlands Vs Ukraine (C) (2-0)
    8 Monday June 14th 2pm Scotland Vs Czech Republic (D) (1-1)
    9 Monday June 14th 5pm Poland Vs Slovakia (E) (2-0)
    10 Monday June 14th 8pm Spain Vs Sweden (E) (3-1)
    11 Tuesday June 15th 5pm Hungary Vs Portugal (F) (0-3) 
    12 Tuesday June 15th 8pm France Vs Germany (F) (3-1)
    13 Wednesday June 16th 2pm Finland Vs Russia (B) (1-2)
    14 Wednesday June 16th 5pm Turkey Vs Wales (A) (2-1)
    15 Wednesday June 16th 8pm Italy Vs Switzerland (A) (1-0)
    16 Thursday June 17th 2pm Ukraine Vs Macedonia (C) (0-0)
    17 Thursday June 17th 5pm Denmark Vs Belgium (B) (1-3)
    18 Thursday June 17th 8pm Netherlands Vs Austria (C) (2-0)
    19 Friday June 18th 2pm Sweden Vs Slovakia (E) (1-0)
    20 Friday June 18th 5pm Croatia Vs Czech Republic (D) (2-2)
    21 Friday June 18th 8pm England Vs Scotland (D) (2-1)
    22 Saturday June 19th 2pm Hungary Vs France (F) (1-4)
    23 Saturday June 19th 5pm Portugal Vs Germany (F) (2-2)
    24 Saturday June 19th 8pm Spain Vs Poland (E) (2-1)
    25 Sunday June 20th 5pm Italy Vs Wales (A) (2-0)
    26 Sunday June 20th 5pm Switzerland Vs Turkey (A) (1-1)
    27 Monday June 21st 5pm North Macedonia Vs Netherlands (C) (0-3) 
    28 Monday June 21st 5pm Ukraine Vs Austria (C) (2-2)
    29 Monday June 21st 8pm Finland Vs Belgium (B) (0-4)
    30 Monday June 21st 8pm Russia Vs Denmark (B) (1-1)
    31 Tuesday June 22nd 8pm Croatia Vs Scotland (D) (2-2)
    32 Tuesday June 22nd 8pm Czech Republic Vs England (D) (0-2)
    33 Wednesday June 23rd 5pm Slovakia Vs Spain (E) (0-2)
    34 Wednesday June 23rd 5pm Sweden Vs Poland (E) (1-2)
    35 Wednesday June 23rd 8pm Portugal Vs France (F) (1-1)
    36 Wednesday June 23rd 8pm Germany Vs Hungary (F) (2-0)
     

    Italy

    Portugal

    Spain

    France

     

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