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Bathtime For Rupert

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Posts posted by Bathtime For Rupert

    Racing Chat - Friday 18th March (Cheltenham Day 4)

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    All prices Bet365 and all 1pt e/w:

    1.30 - Fil Dor @ 7/1

    Not as visually impressive as Pied Piper or Vauban but is still high class and I just get the impression that the former two are speedier types who might not want this to develop into a true test. Fil Dor looks an out and out galloper and I can see him going off handy and grinding this out from the front. 

    2.10 - Tax For Max @ 22/1

    Hasn't put it all together over hurdles so far but that means he's unexposed and his mark looks a fair one. Has run with plenty of promise in a few starts but can race a bit too freely and his jumping wasn't great when last seen. However, he's returning from an absence today which I don't think is a bad thing as he's gone well fresh in the past, the drying ground will help and the big field should allow him to settle better too. Will need his jumping to hold up but looks a live outsider.

    2.50 - Minella Cocooner @ 10/1

    Hillcrest still looks a bit of a work in progress and I just wonder if one of the Irish horses will have a bit too much class for him today. The value appears to be with Minella Cocooner in my eyes - similarly matched with the much shorter priced Ginto on a line through Hollow Games and both should appreciate the step up in trip today. Minella Cocooner's dam won a 3 mile grade 2 novice hurdle and is by Flemensfirth so stamina appears assured and Ginto has the slight question mark over his right-handed jumping too, so this one looks the play.

    3.30 - Al Boum Photo @ 12/1

    Clearly a very tricky race to call with not much between a lot of these on form. Al Boum Photo is a standing dish in the Gold Cup now though and looks likely to run his race again at what is a big price. Wasn't too far behind the front two last year on ground possibly a bit lively for him and today's conditions should suit his closing style a bit better. Jumping let him down at Punchestown the following month last year when he probably would have won but for successive mistakes at the final three fences. Given a fairly gentle prep for this and with cheekpieces on today, can run another big race.

    4.10 - Dubai Quest @ 10/1

    You simply can't fault this one's form and still has plenty of ability at the age of 9. Has beaten 130+ rated animals pretty readily the last twice and during his long winning sequence, also impressively saw off the now 137-rated Omar Maretti by 10+ lengths. Will need to jump okay but everything else looks in his favour and hopefully can extend this long unbeaten run today.

    4.50 - Zambella @ 12/1

    Possibly doesn't have the class of a couple of these but you know what you're going to get with her. She's a bold jumping, game sort who is likely to go forward here and I think she can put the pressure on Elimay and Mount Ida. Both of those rivals have some issues in the jumping department and Zambella has already beaten Elimay once this season. She's going to need everything to go right for her (or a bit wrong for the others) but I can't be confident backing either of the top two in the market at their prices so this looks a reasonable alternative.

    5.30 - I Am Connect @ 20/1

    I think the ease in the market for this one must be down to the ground but it might not be riding too bad by 5.30 today and if that's the case, 20/1 could look a silly price. Has done little wrong in three starts over hurdles, surrounding himself with smart types and looks well handicapped off 132 based on the horses his form is tied in with. Does suggest he wants a sound enough surface but well worth chancing on the basis of his handicap mark, which looks generous compared to many others in here. 

    Racing Chat - Thursday 17th March (Cheltenham Day 3)

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted · Edited by Bathtime For Rupert

    All prices Bet365:

    2.10 Cheltenham - 2pts win Sire Du Berlais @ 9/2 and 1pt e/w Stoney Mountain  @ 50/1

    2.50 Cheltenham - 1pt e/w Melon @ 18/1

    3.30 Cheltenham - 2pts win Royal Kahala @ 6/1

    4.10 Cheltenham - 2pts win The Glancing Queen @ 4/1

    4.50 Cheltenham - 1pt win Grangee @ 8/1

    5.30 Cheltenham - 1pt e/w Come on Teddy @ 12/1

    Racing Chat - Wednesday 16th March (Cheltenham Day 2)

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    All Bet365 and all 1pt e/w:

    1.30 Cheltenham - Whatdoeawant @ 20/1

    Would rather look for some each-way value here and I think there's still plenty more to come from this one - still lightly raced and has shaped with inexperience throughout his career to date. Looks the type that will relish a decent gallop around Cheltenham, will stay no problem and both wins have come when fresh, so the 2-month absence is of no concern. Hopefully can make the first three at least.

    2.10 Cheltenham - Beacon Edge @ 12/1

    There are a lot of exuberant types in this race and I think they're going to go off hard here, which could set it up nicely for something to bide their time and swoop late. I really like Beacon Edge to go well here - 4th in the stayers' hurdle last year and hasn't done too much wrong since the switch to fences. Only just denied by Farouk D'alene last time out but gets a 7lb swing with that rival today and this one's form ties in with Gabynako, who franked the form yesterday, so 12/1 looks a big price with this likely to be run to suit.

    2.50 Cheltenham - Indigo Breeze @ 16/1

    Inexperience would be the worry for this one but I think he's well handicapped, especially going up in trip today. Won going away from a horse now rated 136 in November and then backed it up with a solid 2nd to a 140-rated horse last time when losing his position in a small field before rallying. Gets in off 134 today and surely will relish the extra yardage here. Had one previous go at 2m4f but something was clearly amiss that day so will forgive him that, and he's a half brother to Brindisi Breeze so you'd like to think he'll stay no problem. If he holds his position and jumps okay, I think he's got a huge chance.

    3.30 Cheltenham - Nube Negra @ 18/1

    Seems a bit of a bonkers price to me, for all Shishkin sets a high standard. Brings experience over fences to the race and really ought to have won it last year. This year's renewal perhaps is stronger but finished ahead of Chacun Pour Soi who is a much shorter price today and Nube Negra needs to be fresh to perform at his best. Was impressive earlier this season when returning from a break and just seems sure to run his race and to me, at the price, he's the bet of the race each-way.

    4.10 Cheltenham - Brahma Bull @ 20/1

    Not a race to get too invested in but worth chancing Brahma Bull at a big price I think - one of the classier runners in the field and you can draw a line through its run last time when bursting a blood vessel and never jumping. Much of his best form has come on good ground, stays well and if taking to these obstacles he could make this price look a bit silly.

    4.50 Cheltenham - Embittered @ 12/1

    Was going well when favourite for the race last year off a higher mark and I think could be primed to strike now. Ran some solid races in the spring and although less promising this season, never had a chance last time out in a Grade 1 and his mark has been protected for this race as a result. Weighted to go very well, has decent ground which appears to suit and I think we could see a different horse today.

    Racing Chat - Tuesday 15th March (Cheltenham Day 1)

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    1.30 - 0.5pts e/w Shallwehaveonemore @ 66/1

    Just can't back any of the favourites with confidence as hard to weigh up the British vs Irish form. Instead, having a tentative e/w poke on an outsider but not a no hoper in my eyes. Ran behind Constitution Hill at Sandown but this one's best form has come on a sounder surface and can't fault its form under these sort of conditions. Ideally should have won last time but there were some mitigating factors and just looks a shade big for all he has plenty to do on most grounds. 

    2.10 - 1pt e/w Gabynako @ 18/1

    Looks plenty of pace on here and I think it could be a frantic race. Jumping and stamina will be put to the test and I think Gabynako is overpriced. Don't think the drop back in trip is a major problem and has been competing with top class horses in the main over 2m4f. Looks overpriced to me. 

    2.50 - 1pt e/w Tea Clipper @ 12/1

    Really like the prospects of this one - form dropped off a bit but his record fresh is very good and the break/wind surgery can set him up nicely for this. Stays well, on his day can jump well too and is weighted to go very well if putting it all together. 

    4.10 - 1pt e/w Indefatigable @ 25/1

    Another overpriced runner in my eyes - poor last time out but that was a rare poor run and these conditions are optimum for her. Very solid form when winning at Wetherby earlier in the season (over a trip I think is not even her best) and was 4th in this race last year. Can see her getting into the mix again. 

    4.50 - 1pt e/w Britzka @ 20/1

    Taking a bit of a punt on this one as he's clearly a bit of a character but when putting it all together has proven he's capable of smart performances. Had three races in quick succession at Christmas and it possibly just took its toll - been given a break since, gets the blinkers on and if travelling better in this bigger field, I can see him coming home well. Equally might throw in the towel early on, but worth a go at the price!

    5.30 - 3pts win Stattler @ 5/2

    I think his win last time out is the strongest form in the field and looks an out and out stayer so essentially a lot to like against largely inferior rivals here I think.

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