Bathtime For Rupert
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Posts posted by Bathtime For Rupert
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Re: Flat Racing; Thurs 3rd Feb 6.00 Wolverhampton - 1pt win Chosen Forever @ SP This horse was in sparkling form at the midlands course last winter racking up 4 wins. Has had a break this winter, but returned to form with a good run in a hot race at the course last time, and can come on for that, to score here. Knows where the winning post is, and hopefully the mark of 82 won't be beyond him (won well off 77 previously, and a good run off 83 last time).
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Re: BBOTD - 3rd Feb 2011 6.00 Wolverhampton - 1pt win Chosen Forever @ SP This horse was in sparkling form at the midlands course last winter racking up 4 wins. Has had a break this winter, but returned to form with a good run in a hot race at the course last time, and can come on for that, to score here. Knows where the winning post is, and hopefully the mark of 82 won't be beyond him (won well off 77 previously, and a good run off 83 last time).
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Re: BBOTD - 2nd Feb 2011 2.40 Lingfield - Esteem Lord - 1pt win @ 100/30 (VC) A race in which there are question marks over many of the runners - stamina doubts over Shaded Edge and Ede's Dot Com to name a couple. Bizarrely looks exposed, if consistent off his mark of 60. Esteem Lord has been running well lately and this looks his ideal conditions. Has gone close over course and distance recently and there doesn't seem to be too many certain challengers, and Esteem Lord remains on a mark well within its sights.
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Re: Flat Racing 2nd Feb 2.40 Lingfield - Esteem Lord A race in which there are question marks over many of the runners - stamina doubts over Shaded Edge and Ede's Dot Com to name a couple. Bizarrely looks exposed, if consistent off his mark of 60. Esteem Lord has been running well lately and this looks his ideal conditions. Has gone close over course and distance recently and there doesn't seem to be too many certain challengers, and Esteem Lord remains on a mark well within its sights.
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Re: Jump Racing - Weds 2nd Feb 2.00 Leicester - Grafite @ 12/1 (VC) This cheap, progressive hurdler can continue his upward curve here. A faller on two of its last three starts, Grafite has shown good soft ground form. When it did complete - sandwiched between its falls - it was a clear 8l winner over Mannlichen, who has hacked up since. Grafite was making good headway when falling at the 7th last time out. This was a good race with Dynaste prevailing with Organisateur also in the field along with Olofi. Its jumping had been pretty safe throughout that race too, before its departure. 7lbs are taken off by a claimer and can run well at a nice price here.
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Re: BBOTD - 1st Feb 2011 3.30 Southwell - 1pt win Onceaponatime @ 7/2 (Paddy Power) Sir Louis is an improving horse, but on the form, I think it's worth siding with the Michael Squance trained challenger. His form is starting to get back to its best, and the 7th last time wasn't as bad as it looks - beaten under 4 lengths despite getting shuffled back, and lacking a clear run. Its run behind Lucky Dan at Wolverhampton on its penultimate start is good enough to take this race, and a mark of 70 looks excellent, considering it has won off 78 and is coming back to the boil. 2223312062 show good consistency at Southwell. Perhaps doesn't get its head in front as often as he should, but I don't think it's for a lack of trying. Everything geared towards a big run.
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Re: Flat All-Weather Racing : Feb 01 3.30 Southwell - Onceaponatime @ 7/2 (Paddy Power) Sir Louis is an improving horse, but on the form, I think it's worth siding with the Michael Squance trained challenger. His form is starting to get back to its best, and the 7th last time wasn't as bad as it looks - beaten under 4 lengths despite getting shuffled back, and lacking a clear run. Its run behind Lucky Dan at Wolverhampton on its penultimate start is good enough to take this race, and a mark of 70 looks excellent, considering it has won off 78 and is coming back to the boil. 2223312062 show good consistency at Southwell. Perhaps doesn't get its head in front as often as he should, but I don't think it's for a lack of trying. Everything geared towards a big run.
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Re: Best Bet Of The Day - Sunday 30th January 2011 At Kempton, obviously!
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Re: Best Bet Of The Day - Sunday 30th January 2011 1.45 - Broughtons Paradis - Arguably better on turf, and isn't the strongest of finishers, but this looks an ideal opportunity. Been off since August but has run well fresh before. Its form last summer is easily good enough to win this - behind useful horses in Snoqualmie Star and Denton. That was off a mark of 61 on turf, runs off 51 back on the all-weather today and must have a massive shout if ready to go. Has run well on the a/w before so it's not too much of a concern. 1pt win @ 7/2 (Paddy Power)
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Re: Flat Racing - 30/01/11 1.45 - Broughtons Paradis - Arguably better on turf, and isn't the strongest of finishers, but this looks an ideal opportunity. Been off since August but has run well fresh before. Its form last summer is easily good enough to win this - behind useful horses in Snoqualmie Star and Denton. That was off a mark of 61 on turf, runs off 51 back on the all-weather today and must have a massive shout if ready to go. Has run well on the a/w before so it's not too much of a concern. 7/2 (Paddy Power)
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Re: Best Bet Of The Day Tables ~ January Just warming up for February :D Thought Cockney Trucker might come back through for a minute though!
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Re: Jump Racing - 29/01/11 4.10 Cheltenham - Cockney Trucker, 0.5pt e/w @ 12/1 (VC) A promising hurdler that never really took to fences, jumping erratically. Ran a great race from the front on its hurdling reappearance over c&d, being swallowed up after a mistake at the last. Trip was too far and was too keen last time out, and can exploit weaknesses in some of his main rivals here.
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Re: BBOTD - 29/01/11 4.10 Cheltenham - Cockney Trucker, 0.5pt e/w @ 12/1 (VC) A promising hurdler that never really took to fences, jumping erratically. Ran a great race from the front on its hurdling reappearance over c&d, being swallowed up after a mistake at the last. Trip was too far and was too keen last time out, and can exploit weaknesses in some of his main rivals here.
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Re: BBOTD Thursday 27th 1.50 Ffos Las - Charming Lad - 1pt win This maiden hurdle over two-and-a-half miles is an interesting one, with potential improvers, and potential useful recruits from the point-to-point, and bumper scene. However, I think Charming Lad can put its hurdling experience to good use, and score. The Charlie Mann trained 6 year old has shown improvement on every run in its short career so far. Following a couple of average performances in points, it got its head in front last March before being recruited by the Mann yard. Clearly fancied on its hurdling debut - being sent off at 11/2 - Charming Lad moved up going well with 3 to jump, but failed to see out the trip and ended up a well-beaten 4th of 8. There are a few potential reasons for this - an eight month absence, a trip that may have stretched his stamina, as well as softish ground. It left his previous form behind when a close 2nd at Plumpton earlier this month. The winner of that race, Mister Hyde, has shown a good level of form - behind some useful types in Owen Glendower and Grands Crus - finishing 6th of 17 behind the latter in a class two hurdle at Cheltenham. Grands Crus went on to hack up again by 10 lengths, franking Mister Hyde's form as very solid. Charming Lad did receive 9lbs from Mister Hyde at Plumpton, but it's keeping-on effort suggests a race over this trip is well within his sights, and it may well come tomorrow. He should be fully tuned up for the run, and improve on what he's shown so far as long as the soft ground at the Welsh venue isn't too much of an inconvenience (good/soft at Plumpton). He can take advantage of his (albeit limited) hurdling experience and take this 1.50 maiden hurdle at a decent price. 1.50 Ffos Las - 1pt win Charming Lad @ SP
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Re: Jump Racing; Thurs 27th Jan 1.50 Ffos Las - Charming Lad This maiden hurdle over two-and-a-half miles is an interesting one, with potential improvers, and potential useful recruits from the point-to-point, and bumper scene. However, I think Charming Lad can put its hurdling experience to good use, and score. The Charlie Mann trained 6 year old has shown improvement on every run in its short career so far. Following a couple of average performances in points, it got its head in front last March before being recruited by the Mann yard. Clearly fancied on its hurdling debut - being sent off at 11/2 - Charming Lad moved up going well with 3 to jump, but failed to see out the trip and ended up a well-beaten 4th of 8. There are a few potential reasons for this - an eight month absence, a trip that may have stretched his stamina (on its first run), as well as softish ground. It left his previous form behind when a close 2nd at Plumpton earlier this month. The winner of that race, Mister Hyde, has shown a good level of form - behind some useful types in Owen Glendower and Grands Crus - finishing 6th of 17 behind the latter in a class two hurdle at Cheltenham. Grands Crus went on to hack up again by 10 lengths, franking Mister Hyde's form as very solid. Charming Lad did receive 9lbs from Mister Hyde at Plumpton, but it's keeping-on effort suggests a race over this trip is well within his sights, and it may well come tomorrow. He should be fully tuned up for the run, and improve on what he's shown so far as long as the soft ground at the Welsh venue isn't too much of an inconvenience (good/soft at Plumpton). He can take advantage of his (albeit limited) hurdling experience and take this 1.50 maiden hurdle at a decent price. 1.50 Ffos Las - Charming Lad @ 5/1 (SP in most places at the moment. That is the current Betfair price).
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Re: Jump Racing - 26/01/11 2.35 Musselburgh - Aikman Looks set to be about a 3/1 shot. 2nd favourite at the minute. This ex pointer made a big impression under rules when hacking up by 8l in a Perth bumper. The horse is beat into 2nd that day, Priceless Art, has notched up 3 successive bumper wins since. Including 7l and 11l victories. Its most recent win came when coming clear with a subsequent hurdle winner. Aikman is well regarded in the Ewart yard and can gain revenge for its course and distance fall on its reappearance. Looked a likely winner having battled back to the front before coming to grief, with King Fingal going on to win the race. King Fingal itself had only had 1 prior run in NH races, a respectable 5th behind the useful El Qedaaf. I would expect King Fingal to go on now and perhaps to better things. Dica has to give weight all round, and beat a group of horses who are arguably not the best stayers in the world - flat horses such as Dhaular Dhar. It is a competitive and interesting race, with Red Merlin of interest should it see out the trip well enough. However, I think the percentage bet is Aikman here.
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Re: BBOTD - 26/01/11 2.55 Lingfield - Lastkingofscotland 1pt win 5/1 (VC) Competitive little handicap with a few course and distance winners. Could It Be Magic, whilst consistent, has to date failed to get its head in front. His day will come but I doubt it will be today. Rubenstar is a danger, having racked up some good form swooping late on the all-weather. However, I'd just be a little concerned by what it has beaten in its recent victories, and a mark of 71 may be enough to stop him. Hasn't won off a mark this high since 2006. Pytheas is likely to set the fractions, but will struggle to hold off the late challenges. The Happy Hammer and Cat Hunter are the two I fear most. THH is largely consistent and has got its head in front twice this winter. However, both were by neck margins and even the small rise in the weights may prevent it from following up. Lastkingofscotland and Cat Hunter met at Lingfield recently. Cat Hunter was 1st past the post, but Lastkingofscotland was awarded the race when hampered up the rail before just failing. It would certainly have won the race with a clear passage and these two renew their rivalry on the same terms today. A slight worry is Lastkingofscotland's most recent run, which was rather flat. It did have a wide draw - though never as much of a concern at Lingfield - and was caught up behind a lot of horses in a decent-size field before keeping on a bit at the end. 2124543518 show respectable figures at Lingfield. Perhaps it is more of an e/w horse as sometimes it can appear a little awkward, but looks a decent bit of value in this race at around the 5/1, 11/2 mark.
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Re: Wed 2.40 : RSA Steeple Chase Time For Rupert has been a favourite of mine since inching out Inchidaly Rock at 50/1 at Aintree. I saw something there, which was reiterated with its success in a handicap hurdle in December 2009 and his beloved Cheltenham. Having been nudged along by Will Kennedy for a long way, his overdrive kicked in and responding to pressure, stayed on powerfully to lead at the last before charging up the Cheltenham hill. This performance showed its guts, stamina and jumping ability in abundance. It looked a top class chaser in the making. Not many staying hurdlers will have to face a horse with the undoubted class of Big Bucks, but Rupert's effort in the World Hurdle was another worthy of a lot of credit. It went clear, leaving some decent horses behind Big Bucks and itself, and despite BB cantering all over Rupert, he didn't back down and allow the inevitable to happen. His tenacity was on full show again. This did make it a 12/1 shot for the RSA, but it was obvious that Rupert was going to make a fine chaser. Especially with a bit of give in the ground. 7/2 was a fair price for its chasing debut - considering its absence and with the trip on the sharp side. It needed to be urged along by Kennedy, but drew clear to score by 8l. A feat which was repeated next time out. Hell's Bay, Reve De Sivola and Chicago Grey are no mugs, either. All of a sudden it's not at a backable price ante-post for the RSA, but it really has an almighty chance. It won't trample all over the opposition, it tends to need pushing along - sometimes even from quite a way out - but there's no need to worry. When the guts and stamina kick in, you can start counting your money. Jumped excellently, as expected, so far too. Just can't see anything beating it assuming the ground is suitable and all preparations go to plan. Then we can see him mix it with the big boys. I expect Rupert to win a Gold Cup, and he's coming into a generation where it's exceptionally possible. A lot of quality...perhaps not the style to match, but a lot of charm.
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Re: Flat Racing 26th Jan 2.55 Lingfield - Lastkingofscotland 5/1 (VC) Competitive little handicap with a few course and distance winners. Could It Be Magic, whilst consistent, has to date failed to get its head in front. His day will come but I doubt it will be today. Rubenstar is a danger, having racked up some good form swooping late on the all-weather. However, I'd just be a little concerned by what it has beaten in its recent victories, and a mark of 71 may be enough to stop him. Hasn't won off a mark this high since 2006. Pytheas is likely to set the fractions, but will struggle to hold off the late challenges. The Happy Hammer and Cat Hunter are the two I fear most. THH is largely consistent and has got its head in front twice this winter. However, both were by neck margins and even the small rise in the weights may prevent it from following up. Lastkingofscotland and Cat Hunter met at Lingfield recently. Cat Hunter was 1st past the post, but Lastkingofscotland was awarded the race when hampered up the rail before just failing. It would certainly have won the race with a clear passage and these two renew their rivalry on the same terms today. A slight worry is Lastkingofscotland's most recent run, which was rather flat. It did have a wide draw - though never as much of a concern at Lingfield - and was caught up behind a lot of horses in a decent-size field before keeping on a bit at the end. 2124543518 show respectable figures at Lingfield. Perhaps it is more of an e/w horse as sometimes it can appear a little awkward, but looks a decent bit of value in this race at around the 5/1, 11/2 mark.
Flat Racing Fri 4th
in At The Races - Racing Forum
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Re: Flat Racing Fri 4th 7.30 Wolverhampton - 1pt win Grudge @ 7/1 (Betfred) Competitive 5f handicap where Grudge looks to have a good chance at a nice price. 9221422112 over course and distance. Will have to run to its best off a stiffish mark of 73 but went close behind prolific Sloop Johnb last time at Wolverhampton off the same mark. Has an inside draw in stall 1 and can take this race.