Bathtime For Rupert
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Posts posted by Bathtime For Rupert
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Re: BFR Racing Thread +15.88pts 23 horses 6 wins (11/2, 5/2, 85/40, 3/1, 11/4, 6/4) 6 places 11 unplaced 26% strike rate. Bank: 115.88pts (+15.88pts) Got one lined up at Doncaster tomorrow and will have a look at Lingfield - though had a nightmare there with luck lately...
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Re: falmouth bay Just watched the race. A little bit of barging on the home turn but nothing detrimental really - and nothing that didn't affect the winner any less really. 6 and two 3s for me. Certainly nothing requiring a steward's.
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Re: BFR Racing Thread +12.88pts Romantic Queen was disappointing but John Potts won again. Bank: 112.88pts (+12.88pts) Wolverhampton staked: 4pts Wolverhampton return: 7pts New Bank: 115.88pts (+15.88pts)
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Re: Flat Racing - Thursday 3rd March Wolverhampton: 5.40 - 2pts win Romantic Queen @ 7/2 (Hills) This horse goes best over c&d and looks best in at the weights here. 1134 is the horse's form over c&d under Matthew Davies who gets on with the horse really well. Smallish field will suit and can win this race off good terms. 7.10 - 2pts win John Potts @ 5/2 (Hills) Weak handicap this and can go the way of prolific recent winner John Potts. Up to a mark of 60 but won 4 this winter over c&d and ran into a strong favourite fancied to go on to better things last time out. Possibly weighted to the hilt, but a weak race and looks the percentage call.
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Re: BBOTD Thursday 3rd March 5.40 Wolverhampton - 1pt win Romantic Queen @ 7/2 (Hills) This horse goes best over c&d and looks best in at the weights here. 1134 is the horse's form over c&d under Matthew Davies who gets on with the horse really well. Smallish field will suit and can win this race off good terms.
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Re: BFR Racing Thread +12.88pts Wolverhampton: 5.40 - 2pts win Romantic Queen @ 7/2 (Hills) This horse goes best over c&d and looks best in at the weights here. 1134 is the horse's form over c&d under Matthew Davies who gets on with the horse really well. Smallish field will suit and can win this race off good terms. 7.10 - 2pts win John Potts @ 5/2 (Hills) Weak handicap this and can go the way of prolific recent winner John Potts. Up to a mark of 60 but won 4 this winter over c&d and ran into a strong favourite fancied to go on to better things last time out. Possibly weighted to the hilt, but a weak race and looks the percentage call.
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Re: BFR Racing Thread +3.44pts Thank God for Laneguy! Two seconds and a fourth - thought it was going to be frustrating again but Laneguy hacked up as I had hoped. Staked: 7.5pts Returned: 16.25pts New Bank: 112.88pts (+12.88pts) Wolverhampton to follow.
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Re: Jump Racing - March 3rd Laneguy provides some compensation for last week :) Thought I'd posted it in here but must have just been in my thread in Glory Hunters.
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Re: Jump Racing - March 3rd Taunton: 2.20 - 2pts win Merehead @ 3/1 (Hills) This horse showed a lot of promise in bumpers before running a sound race on its hurdling debut, beaten 18l by Kid Cassidy. That looks a hot little race with the 2nd, Tornado Bob, hacking up twice since and then running well in a class 2. That horse is now rated 143 and only beat Merehead 3l. The 3rd, Ohio Gold, ran okay behind Bobs Worth last time (beaten 22l). These 4 pulled nicely clear of another subsequent winner in 5th. Merehead ran as if needing extra yardage and got it at Chepstow last time. Just raced keenly and on soft ground struggled to see the race out - weakening into 3rd, beaten 10l by Our Father and Cotillion. Still think this horse has plenty of potential and hopefully will settle better today. Coupled with better ground, it should see the trip out stronger and hopefully come home in front.
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Re: Flat Racing - Thursday 3rd March Southwell: 2.40 - 2pts win New Latin @ 3/1 (Hills) Showed consistent form in maidens for Mark Johnston before two slightly disappointing runs at Kempton. The latter especially. Had a bad draw that day and perhaps can be ignored - especially considering that field was actually reasonably good in comparison to this one (plenty of 80+ ratings in there). New Latin is rated 72 and at the weights has a massive chance. On the figures So Is She has a great chance but I prefer the now Frank Sheridan trained horse here. Bounced back from its Kempton run with a maiden win on the fibresand here over a mile. Its running looked as if Southwell would suit in its previous runs and this was true as it won - and came clear with the 2nd. Back down to 7f shouldn't be a problem at all and the small field should suit (form figures 231 in races containing 6 runners or less). Changed hands for 13,000gns so clearly has some ability, and hopefully enough to win this race. 3.10 - 1pt win Dream Catcher @ 6/1 (Hills) Taking a punt on this one. French import who has failed to beat a rival in its two runs in England - one in a Group 3 and the other in a Lingfield claimer! Steps right back to 5f here where it won 3 out of 4 starts in France - only failing in a Group 3, won by a horse who subsequently ran 7l behind Dream Ahead. Has won over 7f which makes its latest stinker concerning as it shouldn't have weakened that badly in a very poor race, but perhaps needed the run after a 4 month absence. Perhaps wants further than 5f nowadays but if it is his optimum trip then could be well handicapped here. Did winning on soft ground in France so the surface hopefully won't be too much of a problem, and can hopefully bounce back to form today.
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Re: BFR Racing Thread +3.44pts
:rollin Here we go today. Southwell: 2.40 - 2pts win New Latin @ 3/1 (Hills) Showed consistent form in maidens for Mark Johnston before two slightly disappointing runs at Kempton. The latter especially. Had a bad draw that day and perhaps can be ignored - especially considering that field was actually reasonably good in comparison to this one (plenty of 80+ ratings in there). New Latin is rated 72 and at the weights has a massive chance. On the figures So Is She has a great chance but I prefer the now Frank Sheridan trained horse here. Bounced back from its Kempton run with a maiden win on the fibresand here over a mile. Its running looked as if Southwell would suit in its previous runs and this was true as it won - and came clear with the 2nd. Back down to 7f shouldn't be a problem at all and the small field should suit (form figures 231 in races containing 6 runners or less). Changed hands for 13,000gns so clearly has some ability, and hopefully enough to win this race. 3.10 - 1pt win Dream Catcher @ 6/1 (Hills) Taking a punt on this one. French import who has failed to beat a rival in its two runs in England - one in a Group 3 and the other in a Lingfield claimer! Steps right back to 5f here where it won 3 out of 4 starts in France - only failing in a Group 3, won by a horse who subsequently ran 7l behind Dream Ahead. Has won over 7f which makes its latest stinker concerning as it shouldn't have weakened that badly in a very poor race, but perhaps needed the run after a 4 month absence. Perhaps wants further than 5f nowadays but if it is his optimum trip then could be well handicapped here. Did winning on soft ground in France so the surface hopefully won't be too much of a problem, and can hopefully bounce back to form today. Taunton: 2.20 - 2pts win Merehead @ 3/1 (Hills) This horse showed a lot of promise in bumpers before running a sound race on its hurdling debut, beaten 18l by Kid Cassidy. That looks a hot little race with the 2nd, Tornado Bob, hacking up twice since and then running well in a class 2. That horse is now rated 143 and only beat Merehead 3l. The 3rd, Ohio Gold, ran okay behind Bobs Worth last time (beaten 22l). These 4 pulled nicely clear of another subsequent winner in 5th. Merehead ran as if needing extra yardage and got it at Chepstow last time. Just raced keenly and on soft ground struggled to see the race out - weakening into 3rd, beaten 10l by Our Father and Cotillion. Still think this horse has plenty of potential and hopefully will settle better today. Coupled with better ground, it should see the trip out stronger and hopefully come home in front. 3.20 - Laneguy (see above) :dude Wolverhampton later.Cheeky :eek re your Donny plan with Jordy :spank Good luck if you're punting today :ok -
Re: Your festival banker this year... Usually wary of 'good things' at Cheltenham but at 36/1 or so I like the look of a treble consisting of: Cue Card Time For Rupert Master Minded
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Re: BFR Racing Thread +3.44pts 3.50 Taunton - 2.5pts win Laneguy @ 11/2 (Bet365) Just putting my first out there now. RP site down for maintenance so won't really be looking at form until later. Backed this last week at 20/1. It was nearly brought down, losing any chance. Now it's much shorter. Frustrating but there we go. Here is my reasoning for last week:
It was jumping brilliantly last week and travelling too. Unfortunately jumped too well at a crucial fence. The problem being it was straight into the back of a falling horse. Was virtually brought down, stopped to a walk, before continuing tailed off - and still only beaten around 18l in the circumstances. This looks a bit of a better race - in the sense that it's a novice chase with a few runners with the potential to improve. Kirby's Glen is the favourite - and was the winner of the race in which Laneguy competed last week. Horses such as Owner Occupier and Catholic Hill have solid shouts too. Couldn't ignore Laneguy though. Was top weight and giving 10lbs to Kirbys Glen. They meet here with Laneguy 7lbs better off. And I think Laneguy would have been right in the shake-up last time anyway. It's all still speculation though. It could have bombed out last time anyway, and may not jump a fence at Taunton today, but feel this could be a good thing.Pretty grim handicap chase this one, but Laneguy looks an interesting runner and must have a chance on its best form. Close 2nd in a point to point and another good run when falling hopefully will bode well for Laneguy's chasing career, and was twice placed in maiden/novice hurdles - even if beaten quite a distance. Pulled up in a handicap hurdle in May, and the same result was the case on its return/chase debut in October. If forgiving him that, as he was entitled to need it, it's 6th of 7 last time, whilst not looking great, isn't actually too bad relative in this race. The 5th was rated 105, the 4th has won twice since (now rated 109), the 3rd has run okay since, the 2nd has been narrowly defeated, and the winner - War Party - has hacked up since and is now rated 118. The step up in trip is fine and has been dropped 5lbs. Worth a punt at a big price in a poor race. -
Re: Wed 2.40 : RSA Steeple Chase
Possibly, think regardless this route is best with potential shots at the Hennessey?/King George/GC. Would have a lot of weight in the former though, especially if it were to win the RSA. I certainly think he has every chance of being a future Gold Cup winner. Has very few flaws. Not a bad place to love going round, Cheltenham, either :DHowever if Time for Rupert had won the Argento, by all accounts connections would have been tempted to go for the Gold Cup, which would have been a mistake IMO. I think he could be a serious Gold Cup contender in years to come - but not this year. -
Re: BFR Racing Thread +2.13pts 2 ready winners at Kempton have brought it round fortunately. Biased but deserved on the balance of things in my opinion. New Bank: 103.44pts (+3.44pts) And thanks Danny :ok
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Re: BFR Racing Thread +2.13pts Bank: 93.63pts (-6.37pts). Kempton staked: 6 pts Bank: 87.63pts Return so far: +7.81pts Bank: 95.44pts (-4.56pts) 1 horse to run.
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Re: BFR Racing Thread +2.13pts Things just not dropping right. Extremely frustrating as we should be well up. Wishes or Watches ran a shocker as the market suggested. Graduation Night was bitterly disappointing. Setters Princess was desperately unlucky. Baker just was stopped on numerous occasions and on a horse that's not that quick, momentum important. Mata Hari Blue ran well but just couldn't get there in 2nd. Khanivorous was staying on but like all good e/w bets was a close 4th. Grr. Staked: 12pts Return: 3.5pts Kempton: 6.10 - 2.5pts win Its You Again @ 85/40 (VC) 6.40 - 1.5pts win Jungle Bay @ 6/1 (Hills) 8.40 - 2pts win Storm Tide @ 3/1 (Hills)
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Re: BFR Racing Thread +2.13pts And now a 2nd. Becoming very frustrating. On other days we'd be in very nice profit already.
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Re: Flat Racing - Wednesday 2nd March 3 of my biggest bets have been murdered on the all weather in the last week. Sunshine Always Epsom Salts Setters Princess Don't know what to do anymore.
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Re: BFR Racing Thread +2.13pts What the **** is with my all weather naps and lack of clear runs. Absolute joke again.
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Re: BFR Racing Thread +2.13pts
Thanks mate :)Good luck! :ok -
Re: BBOTD 02/03 3.40 Folkestone - 1pt win Graduation Night @ 7/2 (VC) This horse looks an out and out stayer on the way it's been finishing its races lately, just lacking in the pace to get involved. Back up to a more reasonable trip on soft ground today should suit in a weak field. Beaten 10l on its last two starts (one over insufficient 20f) and dropped 2lbs since. The 2nd and 3rd of its penultimate race have hacked up since and the winner, Salpierre ran well in a much better race - 3rd in a class 2 handicap - last time. Looks an ideal opportunity to get off the mark.
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Re: Jumps Racing - Wednesday 2nd of March Folkestone: 3.10 - 1.5pts win Wishes or Watches @ 9/2 (Ladbrokes) Very poor 2m chase and it may pay to opt for the experience of Wishes or Watches here. Receiving plenty of weight, and off a lowly mark, has shown hints of form inconsistently. Ran well behind She's Humble on penultimate start, but threw in stinkers either side of that run. One was over hurdles, admittedly though. Soft ground chases over 2m seem to suit best. 5312 is its form figures strictly over 16 or 17f on soft or heavy ground over the larger obstacles. Won this race last year off 2lbs lower under the same jockey as today who takes 5lbs off. 3.40 - 2pts win Graduation Night @ 7/2 (VC) This horse looks an out and out stayer on the way it's been finishing its races lately, just lacking in the pace to get involved. Back up to a more reasonable trip on soft ground today should suit in a weak field. Beaten 10l on its last two starts (one over insufficient 20f) and dropped 2lbs since. The 2nd and 3rd of its penultimate race have hacked up since and the winner, Salpierre ran well in a much better race - 3rd in a class 2 handicap - last time. Looks an ideal opportunity to get off the mark.
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Re: Flat Racing - Wednesday 2nd March Wolverhampton: 4.00 - 3pts win Setters Princess @ 4/1 (Ladbrokes) From a jumping pedigree, Setters Princess has run well on all starts over middle distances on the all-weather, barring one poor run at Kempton where there were excuses about luck in running - getting trapped behind a weakening rival. 6512 is its form on the all-weather and this new trip is no concern given Setters Princess' runs in bumpers at the start of its career. In good form lately. Backing up its comfortable win over 12f at Wolverhampton with a closing 2nd behind Suhailah - suggesting that this new trip would benefit greatly. The field looks weak other than a handful with a shout. Santera is a much improved hurdler but I'm never keen on taking such a short price on a horse with limited flat form coming back to the discipline after success over the obstacles. 4.30 - 1pt e/w Mata Hari Blue @ 10/1 (VC) Worth taking a look at this horse back on the polytrack after a mediocre couple of runs on the fibresand at Southwell. Looks to prefer better ground on turf so he may have underperformed on that surface. On good ground or better, and on the all-weather, Mata Hari Blue's form figures at 6f are as follows: 64307231 Went close at Redcar off a mark of 62 and runs off 54 today. Previous runs at Wolverhampton have been decent enough - and these conditions might just bring the best out of the horse in a weakish handicap. 5.30 - 1pt e/w Khanivorous @ 7/1 (Hills) This horse has always shaped as if 7f is his optimum trip - often just not quite seeing out the mile. Form figures show 12 over 7f on polytrack (ignoring its okay 3rd of 7 last time at Southwell). Ran well at Kempton behind Chilli Green recently over a mile, leading and only getting worn down close home to finish under 2l behind in 3rd. Chilli Green is progressive and each of the 1st, 2nd and 4th have run well since. Runs off the same mark today over 7f with Matthew Davies' 3lb claim and can go well if handling Wolverhampton as effectively as Kempton. Has gone well at Lingfield as well. Unlikely to get his own way in front so it may pay to pick up the pieces from Smalljohn and Striker Torres.
BFR Racing Thread -77.14pts
in Glory Hunters
Posted
Re: BFR Racing Thread +15.88pts 3.55 Doncaster - 1.5pts e/w Classical Mist @ SP Ran well in two bumpers last winter/spring. They weren't anything special but ran quite well on hurdling debut last time. Was keen but travelled well and jumped okay (room for improvement) and improved from the back of the field to look a big threat rounding the home turn - travelled up second best in the race (winner rated 127) - but soon felt the pinch and weakened quickly to be well beat in the end. Will come on for the run seen as it was its first run for a year, hurdling debut, and on soft ground. If it settles better tomorrow it could run well at a decent price. O'Regan a good jockey booking too. Might find a couple too good but I'd be surprised if it didn't improve for the run at Musselburgh.