[BBOTD - 16th of Feb]

Re: BBOTD - 16th of Feb 5.00 Lingfield - Mister Green @ 11/4 (VC) This horse has bounced back to form in its last two runs on polytrack - finishing 3rd over 7f at Lingfield, and a cosy win last time at Kempton over the mile. Has shot down the weights after a shocking run of form last year. Was running off 92 even in November, and its win at Kempton came off 63! Now it has got the winning thread back, a 6lb penalty may not be enough - as it has won off 74 and gone close off 84 previously. Conditions look ideal. at Lingfield over 10f its form reads 123367 (including top handicaps and listed races). Is well treated so long as it continues to get back to form - and certainly showed that he may well be with the comfortable 1/2 length victory last time (travelling strongly and leading on the bit). Should go very well.

[jump racing 16 feb]

Re: jump racing 16 feb 3.40 Leicester - 1pt win Guns Of Love @ 9/2 (VC) Guns Of Love is in excellent form and conditions continue to suit, despite being raised 7lbs for a 5 length success last time out. Has been running well over 2 miles (its only bad runs this winter have come on its first run of the season, and over 2m5f.). Good ground suits ideally, and a smallish field should help this prominent racer. Randjo is the favourite - and was pulled up behind Guns Of Love already this season off the same terms. I assume there was something amiss, as that horse has been consistent other than that run. Worth taking on, though, and Baseball Ted is always worth opposing. Going to have to improve again off 87, but looks like it might be able to do so.

[Flat Racing - 16th of February]

Re: Flat Racing - 16th of February 2.30 Lingfield - Frameit @ 9/2 A 2 mile handicap where there are question marks over the wellbeing, form, and suitability of many runners. One of the safer options is course and distance winner Frameit. Has won 3 times at Lingfield, and ran okay in its two runs either side of that victory. Beaten 5 1/2 lengths in a better race at Kempton last time - behind in-form horses Exemplary, Muzo and Satwa Gold. Thrashed its field by over 3l at Lingfield when it was victorious over c&d. A mark of 58 looks fair for this race, and looks set to run very well.

[Flat Racing - 16th of February]

Re: Flat Racing - 16th of February 2.00 Lingfield - Social Forum @ 9/2 The Rodger Sweeney trained three year old made a promising debut over a mile on the polytrack at Dundalk, before bombing out in a soft ground maiden also across the Irish sea. However, returned to form with a good 3rd at Lingfield over 6f - clearly insufficient. On its two pieces of good form, 7f appears to be perfect for this horse at the moment, and its run last time is good enough to get very much involved today. It finished close up behind Palais Glide - who came out and pulled clear with useful sort Barnet Fair at Kempton, and Christmas Aria - who hacked up at Southwell next time out. There are potential improvers in the field, and Cold Secret looks a fair favourite on its latest run at Kempton - which also looks solid. The conditions look perfect for Social Forum, however, so I'm siding with this one @ 9/2.

[Flat Racing 15th Feb]

Re: Flat Racing 15th Feb

Phew........my first BBotD winner of the month ! Don't wanna sound arrogant but I'm not used to these losing runs of 8 or 9 bets.......it was doing my head in !..............:spank

Same pal!

[Jump Racing 15th Feb]

Re: Jump Racing 15th Feb 3.30 Folkestone - O Malley's Oscar @ 2/1 Pretty weak maiden hurdle this one but O Malley's Oscar made sufficient promise on its hurdling debut, after an absence of nearly a year, at this venue over further, on soft ground. Was only beaten 22l - which is a fair effort - and was beaten by some okay horses. Knighton Combe is a useful chaser, Double Whammy has shown moderate promise, and the winner - Carpincho - won by 46l on hurdling debut and competed against Cue Card and Al Ferof (only beaten 6l by the latter), in bumpers. O Malley's Oscar had previously run well in a point to point, before running 2nd in a Uttoxeter bumper. Pulling clear with 2 other horses. Not the greatest form in the world but has shown enough to take this race. 4.00 Folkestone - Nobunaga @ 6/4 A novice hurdle with 3 horses dominating the market. Nobunaga and Union Island have similar profiles - one poor run on hurdling debut, followed by success on its next start. The Venetia Williams trained Nobunaga won on heavy ground on the flat, and its winning form last time at Huntingdon looks the best on offer here. Drew clear with Araldur - a consistent horse with a string of decent seconds to his name. The horse back in third has shown promise too. Aviador has failed to hold up Union Island's form and Mr Muddle has struggled to finish his races off strongly enough to hold on to his lead. Could be worth siding with Nobunaga here on the limited form we have available.

[Flat Racing 15th Feb]

Re: Flat Racing 15th Feb 3.20 Southwell - Sweet Child O'Mine @ 7/2 Competitive mile handicap, with numerous winners - often over c&d. Sweet Child O'Mine has been off since November, but won after a 4 month absence before when seeing off West End Lad in a heavy ground Nottingham grade 2. Won on debut also, so the break it has had is no concern. Loves it at Southwell - registering 2/2 over c&d, and 2nd at an insufficient trip of 6f. Ran over 10f in November, but these conditions seem to be ideal, and is on a mark set to be exploited. Has won off 77 in the past and today runs off 75 if you include Andrew Heffernan's 3lb claim. Richard Guest's yard are in decent nick - 5 placed horses in the last 8 runs from the stable. Looks to have a massive chance. 3.50 Southwell - Calculating @ 9/2 Staying all-weather regular, who was comfortably beaten by Mush Mir last time - though over an insufficient trip of 12f. This hike up to 2m suits to perfection, and can finish to better effect today. Over course and distance, Calculating's form reads (311) - including a victory over now 80 rated Act of Kalanisi - and drew well clear with this one. Has very solid form over 14f too, so runs consistently well over staying trips at this venue. Lee Newnes is not on board to take 5lbs off but David Probert takes the ride, and he is a very capable jockey. On a good mark of 63, however, having won off 67 (with Newnes' claim) last time it won over c&d. Mush Mir is progressive, but is jumping up the weights quickly, and is worth taking on at the prices.

[BBOTD - 15th of Feb]

Re: BBOTD - 15th of Feb 3.20 Southwell - 1pt win Sweet Child O'Mine @ 7/2 (VC) Competitive mile handicap, with numerous winners - often over c&d. Sweet Child O'Mine has been off since November, but won after a 4 month absence before when seeing off West End Lad in a heavy ground Nottingham grade 2. Won on debut also, so the break it has had is no concern. Loves it at Southwell - registering 2/2 over c&d, and 2nd at an insufficient trip of 6f. Ran over 10f in November, but these conditions seem to be ideal, and is on a mark set to be exploited. Has won off 77 in the past and today runs off 75 if you include Andrew Heffernan's 3lb claim. Richard Guest's yard are in decent nick - 5 placed horses in the last 8 runs from the stable. Looks to have a massive chance.

[BBOTD - 14th of Feb]

Re: BBOTD - 14th of Feb 3.30 Plumpton - Lupanar 1pt win @ 3/1 (VC) Lupanar has come back into good form with the application of cheekpieces, finishing close seconds on two occasions, and third on another, this winter. Only beaten a head last time in a large field, under similar conditions, and appears ready to get his head in front. A mark of 121 is not restrictive - Lupanar has won off 128 previously. A mark of 117 may prove too much for Prince De Seuil given its only handicap success came off 105. Not beaten too far off 118 last time, but it doesn't look as well-treated as Lupanar. Frontier Spirit has the form to be involved but has looked a little awkward on occasions, holding his head high and not looking 100% enthusiastic to go through with his effort. Lupanar is at home on deep ground, stays very well, and has run well on both previous tries at Plumpton (beaten an accumulative 2l in two runs). Can take this race.

[Flat Racing - Monday 14th Feb]

Re: Flat Racing - Monday 14th Feb 2.10 Wolverhampton - Steel City Boy @ 7/2 All-weather sprint regular who has just looked to be returning to form on its last couple of runs. Backed up an improved 3rd behind Black Baccara, with a close (staying on) 2nd behind the re-opposed Bluebok, last time out at Kempton over this trip. Only beaten 1/2l and is 6lbs better off with that rival, which should mean SCB can reverse that form. A mark of 50 is ready to be exploited given SCB won off 60 and went close off 66 this time last year and appears to be hitting form at this time again. Wins rarely (6 from 75), but the conditions look ripe here with a number of horses looking to race prominently.

[Jump Racing - 14th Feb]

Re: Jump Racing - 14th Feb 2.00 Plumpton - Hazy Dawn @ 3/1 A depleted field for this novice hurdle, but there are question marks over many of the remaining runners. Stans Cool Cat looks to be well supported, but coming from the flat, there are no guarantees that he will stay well enough - especially on heavy ground. Similar concerns regarding Mavalenta following that one's 17l defeat on hurdling debut - though was not without promise. The Michael Scudamore trained Hazy Dawn has shown solid form in bumpers - on soft ground - behind two useful sorts in Semi Colon and Baby Shine on the two occasions Hazy Dawn finished (having slipped up when prominent between those two runs). Is related to numerous hurdle winners and looks to be a solid selection in a potentially weak and vulnerable field. 3.30 Plumpton - Lupanar @ 3/1 Lupanar has come back into good form with the application of cheekpieces, finishing close seconds on two occasions, and third on another, this winter. Only beaten a head last time in a large field, under similar conditions, and appears ready to get his head in front. A mark of 121 is not restrictive - Lupanar has won off 128 previously. A mark of 117 may prove too much for Prince De Seuil given its only handicap success came off 105. Not beaten too far off 118 last time, but it doesn't look as well-treated as Lupanar. Frontier Spirit has the form to be involved but has looked a little awkward on occasions, holding his head high and not looking 100% enthusiastic to go through with his effort. Lupanar is at home on deep ground, stays very well, and has run well on both previous tries at Plumpton (beaten an accumulative 2l in two runs). Can take this race.

[BBOTD - 12th of Feb]

Re: BBOTD - 12th of Feb Replacement: 2.35 Lingfield - Jungle Bay 1 pt win @ 6/1 (BlueSQ) Jungle Bay's form has shown improvement in its last two runs - a keeping on 5th over 6f behind Arctic Lynx at this venue. Only beaten just over 2l. Ran well again over 7f last time out, though was hampered and hit the front too soon. Beaten 1 1/4 by Rubenstar - quite a prolific horse at Lingfield - and the drop back to 6f should suit this horse fine today. Looks on a good mark and has a decent draw in 5 and seems a fair each way price at 6/1.

[BBOTD - 12th of Feb]

Re: BBOTD - 12th of Feb 1.55 Newbury - Ackertac - 0.5pts e/w @ 14/1 (VC) Previously improving Nigel Twiston-Davies runner, before flopping in a big Kempton handicap hurdle - won by James De Vassy - in mid January. No real excuses that day, other than perhaps the trip being a touch on the sharp side. Was beaten 71l, though. Seems to prefer good ground - but it was only good/soft that day, and it is the same today. Shouldn't have run that flat. The NTD yard were in poor form, though, and now seem to be hitting a little bit of form again. If you ignore Ackertac's latest run, it was showing consistent improvement. Two comfortable novice wins were followed by a decent 5th behind Cross Kennon in a listed handicap at Cheltenham over 3m2f, just fading out of the picture. Looked unfortunate at Cheltenham behind Lush Life, when making headway going well enough, when jumping excellently, but unfortunately straight into trouble and was brought down. Hopefully can bounce back here, at a nice e/w price of 14/1.

[Jumps Racing ~ Sat 12th Feb]

Re: Jumps Racing ~ Sat 12th Feb 1.55 Newbury - Ackertac Previously improving Nigel Twiston-Davies runner, before flopping in a big Kempton handicap hurdle - won by James De Vassy - in mid January. No real excuses that day, other than perhaps the trip being a touch on the sharp side. Was beaten 71l, though. Seems to prefer good ground - but it was only good/soft that day, and it is the same today. Shouldn't have run that flat. The NTD yard were in poor form, though, and now seem to be hitting a little bit of form again. If you ignore Ackertac's latest run, it was showing consistent improvement. Two comfortable novice wins were followed by a decent 5th behind Cross Kennon in a listed handicap at Cheltenham over 3m2f, just fading out of the picture. Looked unfortunate at Cheltenham behind Lush Life, when making headway going well enough, when jumping excellently, but unfortunately straight into trouble and was brought down. Hopefully can bounce back here, at a nice e/w price of 14/1. 3.35 Newbury - Walkon Highly exciting return to the track after nearly 2 years off the track at Ascot, looking the likely winner before Tiger O'Toole's late such to snatch the prize. Back down in trip no inconvenience for the ex triumph hurdle 2nd and if he doesn't 'bounce', must have a massive chance. The 2009 Triumph Hurdle looks much stronger than the one Soldatino won last year. Walkon is an extremely likable type. Travels, jumps and battles like a very good horse, and a mark of 148 looks fair for this Alan King runner. Very solid form with Zaynar, and beat some useful types on its return when very much expected to need the run - wasn't backed as if he'd run as well as he ended up doing. Competitive handicap, this, but certainly has the class and form to be very involved at 7/1.

[BBOTD FRI 11 FEB 2011]

Re: BBOTD FRI 11 FEB 2011 8.10 Wolverhampton - 1pt win Fiancee @ 5/1 (Corals) A grim handicap to finish today's proceedings, with plenty of these struggling to win races, even at the lowest level. However, Fiancee looks to have a little bit more ability than some, and the potential to improve for 7f on polytrack given its recent runs. It has shown some interesting form in its last 4 starts - staying on at the finish in all - but these were all over 6f. Has run over further before, but hasn't performed. However, the trip should be well within its compass. Doesn't appear to do anything too quickly, but in a moderate race up to 7f, can get involved. Its recent 4th behind Downhill skier at this venue is good enough to be competitive, and can go well off a mark of 46 here at about 5/1,

[Flat Racing - Friday 11th Feb]

Re: Flat Racing - Friday 11th Feb 7.10 Wolverhampton - Kindlelight Sun A somewhat surprising winner on its debut over course and distance in January 2010. Had a year off prior to its latest, and only second start, when shaping as if needing the run in a similar race to this at Kempton - behind Lovers Causeway - not beaten too far. Kidlat and Spring Jim are solid performers at this level, and finished close up to them, some way behind the winner. Lovers Causeway has run a very solid race since, to good all weather performer Scamperdale at Lingfield in a very competitive heat. Could be a tactical affair - suiting Realisation - but Kindlelight Sun has an excellent chance on the formbook at 9/4 or so. 8.10 Wolverhampton - Fiancee A grim handicap to finish today's proceedings, with plenty of these struggling to win races, even at the lowest level. However, Fiancee looks to have a little bit more ability than some, and the potential to improve for 7f on polytrack given its recent runs. It has shown some interesting form in its last 4 starts - staying on at the finish in all - but these were all over 6f. Has run over further before, but hasn't performed. However, the trip should be well within its compass. Doesn't appear to do anything too quickly, but in a moderate race up to 7f, can get involved. Its recent 4th behind Downhill skier at this venue is good enough to be competitive, and can go well off a mark of 46 here at about 5/1,

[BBOTD - 9th of Feb]

Re: BBOTD - 9th of Feb

Ling 4.10 - Toms River tess - EW at 20/1 BOG with Bet365 I'm going through a phase where I'm over-analysing and spending too much time on a race. Eventually that does my head in and clouds my judgment..........:loon So.......I'm going to have a change of tack for a few days as a break from intensive study. I'm now in 'hit and run' mode - quick look at the runners, quickly scan the form, look for an outsider with an angle or two in it's favour, do it EW, back it, post it up before changing your mind, turn the computer off and go and do something else until race time............:moon This race revolves around the odds on favourite, Joe le Taxi, going for his hat trick. With only 6 runners you'd have to have reasonable expectations that he might flop if you back an EW ousider. So.......he's up 11 lbs, he's up in class, he's won 2 slow races on 'slow' tracks at Wolves and Southwell. Fair to assume that he won those races with stamina. Today is more of a speed test at Kempton Take a chance that the odds on fave might flop and it's a wide open race. Captain Dmitrios looks exposed now as does Greenhead High Monsieur jamie's bet form has been on soft ground or at southwell Chevise - can't find any ral negatives but is making handicap debut after running in maidens and claimers and this looks tough under joint top weight. Potentially could make all, which is good tactics here. One for the reverse forecast if you're feeling very lucky ! My selection is the least exposed in the field with just 4 career runs. Ran 3 times last year for Barry Hills and won a Doncaster maiden. Made his reappearance in a hot looking race and finished fairly well beaten behind the likes of Fred Willets and Stirling Bridge, who had won several races previously. Beaten 7 lengths but was right there until the final furlong. Has been dropped 3 lbs, drops in class and this looks a good opportunity to spring a surprise if he comes on a bit for that comeback run.

Bad luck as well as me! Thought he ran well to be honest. Just didn't have the pace final furlong.

[Flat Racing - Weds the 9th Feb]

Re: Flat Racing - Weds the 9th Feb Toms River Tess ran very well in a close 4th. Meh.

[BBOTD - 9th of Feb]

Re: BBOTD - 9th of Feb 4.10 Lingfield - Toms River Tess 1pt win @ 20/1 (PaddyPower) Not a confident 'tip', but something that could outrun its price for me, is Toms River Tess in the 4.10 at Lingfield. I wouldn't be overawed by what looks like horses with good form figures in this race. Only Monsieur Jamie and Joe Le Taxi have won handicaps - and these were about as weak as handicaps come. Toms River Tess, previously trained by Barry Hills, only changed hands for 5000gns to Zoe Davison's yard, but has some interesting form. It is bred to go well as a 3 year old, and still have improvement to come. It won its second maiden - at Doncaster - beating Kissing Clara by 2l. Not the greatest maiden, for sure, but a tidy win all the same. Had every chance with 1f to race in a decent Newmarket nursery off a mark of 82, before fading in the last of 7 furlongs to finish 6th of 8. Not great, but Spartic, Prophet In A Dream, Mayhab and Buzz Law - all ahead of it that day - are considerably better than today's field. Been off the track since, before returning over 6f at Kempton in late January. Wasn't fancied and finished a remote 5th of 7. Entitled to need that run, though, and was a better race than the one it competes in today, in my opinion. Restless Bay, Stirling Bridge and Fred Willetts in that field. Toms River Tess giving weight all round but to the winner, and last placed Mi Regalo. Dropped 3lbs to a mark of 75, which seems fair enough on its 6 length defeat to Buzz Law at Newmarket off 82. 20/1 for a reason, but it wouldn't surprise me to see a good run. Nor a shocker. Just thought it was potentially overpriced.

[Flat Racing - Weds the 9th Feb]

Re: Flat Racing - Weds the 9th Feb 4.10 Lingfield - Toms River Tess @ 20/1 (PaddyPower) Not a confident 'tip', but something that could outrun its price for me, is Toms River Tess in the 4.10 at Lingfield. I wouldn't be overawed by what looks like horses with good form figures in this race. Only Monsieur Jamie and Joe Le Taxi have won handicaps - and these were about as weak as handicaps come. Toms River Tess, previously trained by Barry Hills, only changed hands for 5000gns to Zoe Davison's yard, but has some interesting form. It is bred to go well as a 3 year old, and still have improvement to come. It won its second maiden - at Doncaster - beating Kissing Clara by 2l. Not the greatest maiden, for sure, but a tidy win all the same. Had every chance with 1f to race in a decent Newmarket nursery off a mark of 82, before fading in the last of 7 furlongs to finish 6th of 8. Not great, but Spartic, Prophet In A Dream, Mayhab and Buzz Law - all ahead of it that day - are considerably better than today's field. Been off the track since, before returning over 6f at Kempton in late January. Wasn't fancied and finished a remote 5th of 7. Entitled to need that run, though, and was a better race than the one it competes in today, in my opinion. Restless Bay, Stirling Bridge and Fred Willetts in that field. Toms River Tess giving weight all round but to the winner, and last placed Mi Regalo. Dropped 3lbs to a mark of 75, which seems fair enough on its 6 length defeat to Buzz Law at Newmarket off 82. 20/1 for a reason, but it wouldn't surprise me to see a good run. Nor a shocker. Just thought it was potentially overpriced.

[Flat Racing - Tues 8th February]

Re: Flat Racing - Tues 8th February 2.45 Southwell - 1pt win Colorus @ 3/1 (VC) Dropping into a seller for the first time since last April (over c&d and won), Colorus must have a great chance today. Loves it at Southwell over 5f and despite finishing 7th last time - in a handicap - was only beaten 3 lengths. Narrowly prevailed on its penultimate start, seeing off Soopacal by a short head in a c&d claimer. This was a good claimer though with horses such as Sloop Johnb, Where's Reilly, Elhamri and Matsunosuke in behind. Overall record over c&d is as follows: 1428342125103277133136417 Spic 'N Span is a threat, but doesn't receive the 4 pounds it would have from Colorus if this was a handicap. Lord of the Reins would have a big chance if running as well as on polytrack - however, this is debatable having run poorly 2/3 times at Southwell. Ridley Didley has a chance at the weights, but was behind Colorus last time, and that form can be confirmed today.

[BBOTD TUES 8TH FEB 2011]

Re: BBOTD TUES 8TH FEB 2011 2.45 Southwell - 1pt win Colorus @ 3/1 (VC) Dropping into a seller for the first time since last April (over c&d and won), Colorus must have a great chance today. Loves it at Southwell over 5f and despite finishing 7th last time - in a handicap - was only beaten 3 lengths. Narrowly prevailed on its penultimate start, seeing off Soopacal by a short head in a c&d claimer. This was a good claimer though with horses such as Sloop Johnb, Where's Reilly, Elhamri and Matsunosuke in behind. Overall record over c&d is as follows: 1428342125103277133136417 Spic 'N Span is a threat, but doesn't receive the 4 pounds it would have from Colorus if this was a handicap. Lord of the Reins would have a big chance if running as well as on polytrack - however, this is debatable having run poorly 2/3 times at Southwell. Ridley Didley has a chance at the weights, but was behind Colorus last time, and that form can be confirmed today.

[Flat Racing - 5th of February]

Re: Flat Racing - 5th of February 4.30 Lingfield - 1pt win Audemar @ 7/1 (VC) Very good all-weather miler returns to his best trip here. Having run respectably over 10f recently at Lingfield, the drop back to 8f should enable it to see out the trip stronger - after just fading out of it lately despite looking a potential threat. Has run well off a mark of 88 before, though he will have to be at his best to strike. Over 8f on the all-weather, Audemar's figures are as follows: 44131734, and has run well over course and distance. Once off this mark behind Mahadee, and a recent 4th at an unsuited slow pace in a small field. Mafeking and Kilburn should secure a good gallop today. Wide draw less of a concern at Lingfield, and its running style allows it to be dropped in for a late challenge. Looks a very fair e/w price at around 7 or 8/1.

[BBOTD - 5th Feb 2011]

Re: BBOTD - 5th Feb 2011 4.30 Lingfield - 1pt win Audemar @ (VC) Very good all-weather miler returns to his best trip here. Having run respectably over 10f recently at Lingfield, the drop back to 8f should enable it to see out the trip stronger - after just fading out of it lately despite looking a potential threat. Has run well off a mark of 88 before, though he will have to be at his best to strike. Over 8f on the all-weather, Audemar's figures are as follows: 44131734, and has run well over course and distance. Once off this mark behind Mahadee, and a recent 4th at an unsuited slow pace in a small field. Mafeking and Kilburn should secure a good gallop today. Wide draw less of a concern at Lingfield, and its running style allows it to be dropped in for a late challenge. Looks a very fair e/w price at 8/1.

[BBOTD - 4th Feb 2011]

Re: BBOTD - 4th Feb 2011 7.30 Wolverhampton - 1pt win Grudge @ 7/1 (Betfred) Competitive 5f handicap where Grudge looks to have a good chance at a nice price. 9221422112 over course and distance. Will have to run to its best off a stiffish mark of 73 but went close behind prolific Sloop Johnb last time at Wolverhampton off the same mark. Has an inside draw in stall 1 and can take this race.