giraldi
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Posts posted by giraldi
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Excellent results for the Suggestions module over the week-end (18 games +35% yield), again, but I will not insist because there is not any intention to give tips but just a few games to think about, to dig deeper and to make the best decision.
Many asked if possible to back-test the filters they created in the UPCOMING section. The answer is YES, but it is not so obvious (my bad) so I just wanted to introduce a new video-tutorial that will learn you how to back test the filters.
I considered a very simple case when I am interested to check what would have been the results last month if I had bed on home teams, within "My Leagues" list, based on the following filter:
1. Home team won at least 50% of the home games against similar opponents to the current opponent
2. Away team lost at least 50% of the away teams against similar opponents to the current opponent
If it is still something not clear please let me know.
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As I said many times, I am strongly against blindly follow tips without make your own deep assesment.
The "Suggestions" module of my software just applies a few set of rules (written by me of course) then provide a few suggestions. Of course I keep an eye on the output to not be extemely strange "suggestions". The start, first 2-3 weeks, was extremely bad (it was -70% at some moment) but after a few changes it seems OK and now we have around -10% yield from almost 70 games. The last 30 days (42 bets) had +13% overall with an incredible 75% on draw maket from 12 games
Again, this module just gives a few games, selected based on some stats, without taken into consideration the last info..etc (here is your work)
The "Suggestions" module gives today 9 games to think about, more than usual.
In particular, I am very interested in Inter and Real games where the software indicates a great value on draw. Might be strange bet but did not exclude the bets because the program has given a 75% yield on the draw market last 30 days (12 games).
Please make your own analysis then play accordingly.
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This feature has been asked by too many expert users so finally, I managed to finish it.
It is about saving in XLS or CSV format all that is happening in the Live Statistics module. The old button "Export to" works like before but I added a new button "Save" that will save instantly without any other message the table to XLS or CSV, depending on what you set on the right side.
The "Autosave" button allows you now to set an interval between 0-30 minute. Each time will be saved all that was not saved since the last save. For example, you can set it to 10 minutes then every ten minutes will be saved in the "Export" folder a file named YYMMDDHHMMSS in XLS or CSV format with all data since the last save.
All data can be studied later, minute by minute to see odds, score, percent...etc.
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Just looking for something else, just noticed that nobody answered you.
I will not answer either, to be honest, because my poor English doesn't allow me to understand what exactly is your problem.
Just remembered that many years ago I was interested in Kelly.
Pinnacle has very good and informative articles and would be excellent to read them all. They, like other successful bookies, don't care if you win or not following their advice, if there are enough customers.
About Kelly, first of all, is for those that have a strong heart. The jumps are huge in your bank if doesn't use half Kelly or more ...
On the other hand, all is based on how good you approximate the real probabilities, so Kelly is for very experienced players. Otherwise, you are finished in a few weeks.
Yes, Kelly is excellent if you are a professional in calculating probabilities because you will place high stakes when the probabilities are far better then other players think and will not play if there is no value.
I am sorry I did not answer your question but maybe you will give me another shot if rephrase the problem
By the way, this might be an idea to add such a calculator within my tools.
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I defined similar games as those games where the home/away teams had similar ELO to the selected home/away teams.
Now, similar ELO means that the ELO is inside a given interval, for example Home team ELO +/- 75 points. Of course the shorter is the interval the better are the results but the sample may be not so good. If the interval is large, the sampe is big but the results are not so accurate.
I strongly believe that the ELO coefficient is a very good indicator of the relative value of a team, compared to the other teams, inside the same league. The teams win or lose ELO points depending on their value and the opponent value. Burnley will get a lot of ELO points from Norwich but Manchester United or Liverpool not so much and so on.
My software calculates and keeps ELO value starting with the moment the team is added in the system then the coefficient is not reseted ever, for new season, relegation, promtion....etc. This is because the ELO coefficient needs 20-25 games to calibrate then to take his place in the league ELO table
Here you can see the ELO graph for the first two teams, Liverpool and Manchester City. That explain it best what happend so far
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As I promised, I went further with the last improvement and now can see the number of games where the home/away values come from
For example, Preston won 100% at home against similar opponents in 5 games and Charlton lost 60% away in 10 similar games
It's much better now that we can see the sample
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I addedd a lot of new features lately, here are just a few:
a) New feature added in the CGMBet Live Statistics software.
CGMBet Live Statistics software allows you to follow live games, played in the supported leagues, at the same time with the complex statistics based on the current score and the current minute.
The control panel based on the bottom of the screen already allows creating complex filters based on leagues, ELO coefficient...etc but now is possible to filter the live games based on the current score and other live statistics.
As an example, you can see only the live games where the big favourite, playing away, is behind 2 goals.
The list of the filters I can add here is limited only by our imagination. Please feel free to send me suggestions about what other filters should be included here.
b) New feature added in TABLES section.
I added a new module in the Tables section in order to allow users to check the yield of each team within the selected league. Will see on the same place what teams were profitable on different markets, current season.
This feature works if you selected "My Leagues" or "All leagues" also
c) New feature added in SETTINGS section.
Many advanced users complained about too many confirmations needed when performed repetitive or very known actions. If you set the check button in the Settings2 tab then you will not see confirmation messages any more. (the list of affected messages will be extended as you will send me what messages bother you)
Anyway, please be sure you need it. Will be one click action without asking if you really want that or it was just a wrong click. I am sure that advanced users will use it without problems.
And a new project:
d) CGMBet Early Alerts System software.
Probably you have already noticed my new project, placed on the Home page of the software. It is already under development and my intention is to release it around the 15th of January.
The current CGMBet System software allows you to create and manage simple alerts and to see in the UPCOMING section when they appear.
The new software will be independent and will allow you, based on the same database, to create very complex alerts then t store them on my server. Every morning the server will check and if will appear a game or games that fit your alert(s) then you will receive an email in order to be informed that Saturday in the following games .... home team scored every game until 30 minutes in the last 5 games and the away team not scored in last 15 minutes this season. (just a random example )
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I think that, as a general rule, is a bad idea to bet just based on everybody knows. I am pretty sure that the recent results are very well known and accessible.
Of course, if the form or trend are very good, the team has great probability to win but will not get a correct price for sure
On the other hand, if not check the recent results, what else to check? Ok, will check the players, the field, ...etc. but how will put this in numbers? Can somebody tell me how will affect the performance if 2 important players are missing? will have 15% less chances to win, maybe 20%? The odds have value? I would calculate how the team performed without those palyers...in the recent games.
Finally, the recent results are the best we have to start with and to have a starting number (percent). If we are not able to find more and to adjust those percents in a direction or another the best option is to drop the game and to look for something else.
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A few days ago I had a discussion with some friends about two very controversial topics.
I opened the discussion here because both topics are the basis for many betting strategies.
It's about "gamblers fallacy" and "value in betting"There are probably just a few who don't know what we are talking about here, so I will remind them:
Value, in betting, appears when the odds are suggesting that the chances to happen the event are smaller than they really are.
And
according to Wikipedia: The gambler's fallacy, also known as the Monte Carlo fallacy or the fallacy of the maturity of chances, is the mistaken belief that if something happens more frequently than normal during a given period, it will happen less frequently in the future (or vice versa).
Now, the problems in discussion were, and I would appreciate your opinion
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We talk every day about value but is it possible to calculate the exact value for a price so we can tell if we will have profit on long run?
If we have the price 2.10 for 50% event like coin flip it is a clear value and will have profit on long run but,
For example we have 1.90 odds for home team win and we know with 15 minutes earlier than anyone else (my brother’s best friend is brother in law with the wife-s manager) that the away team will play with the second team or something similar.
On this particular situation the odds 1.90 is a certain value and should hurry to get it? Why? Common sense tell us that should be value, but based on what? We bet based on common sense or based on value? What is the probability for home team to win event? What way is calculated?
I agree that there are way more chances to have value but my opinion is that will never know if we bet with value or not. Until will see that checking the money into accounts of course.
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I have often warned about the danger of “gambler’s fallacy” but I was right regarding to betting on football?
We have an average team that won 5 in a row. Would be correct to start a strategy like Martingale against them? At first sight would be terrible wrong if looking to “gambler’s fallacy” concept.
But, extremely important, the concept is about independent events. If there will be red 100000 times the next red/black will have the same 50% probability to appear.
This is the same thing for our team? The next game is not affected at all by the previous games? Some players are probably getting more and more tired. And many other similar things that affects next games.
I am against Martingale in betting but my opinion is that is am extremely good strategy in some very particular situations.
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I've been working for over a month to see in a 2-2 match for instance, what follows depends on whether it was 2-0 or 0-2 ..etc
It definitely matters so will find soon a very important feature. Filter the sample games according to the goals' order.
Will post soon a very interesting statistics about what happens in any score game depending on the previous goals' sequence. Until now I considered only the score in the minute 35 for example at score 2-2 but did not consider the order of goals. It is a big difference between 0-2, 2-0, 2-1,1-2...etc
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My opinion is that sport betting is learnable for sure but the problem is that you will need more and more resources (time for instance) as you are closer to real profit. Not everyone has patience and resources to do that. (I have not )
It is relatively easy and with a minor effort to study some afticles, books..anyone can transform betting from a black hole into a thing that will not give money but will not suck your money neither. Maybe will just pay the correct price for the "fun" you have when your bet is win/lost in 92 min.
If you want to win money from betting, first off all you need to check if you "deserve" it. Did you forget about luck/badluck and accept that s about knowledge and hard workl? Do you know more than other 99% of the bettors the teams involved in your selections? Are you able to calculate in short time complex probabilities?...and maybe there are another 10 similar questions. If you have just a single "NO" then is not good and... back to school.
Regarding the previous comments, probably what posted notanotherdonkey is not related to betting but it brings to attention a very impotant problem the begginers have to learn: the gambler's fallacy concept. On short, from Wikipedia : " is the mistaken belief that if something happens more frequently than normal during a given period, it will happen less frequently in the future (or vice versa). "
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I hope we all agree that the value can be found in very small odds but, as in real life, to study the small things you need fine tools and a lot of patience, otherwise you destroy them. It is best to avoid small odds, in my opinion. Is best to avoid very "crowded places" as well. No value where are too many players.
My first impression, as did my colleagues above, was that such a strategy simply applied cannot be mathematically winning.
I checked all the matches in September considering the difference at least 10 places for the league positions, see picture no.1.
157 out of 1635 met the condition and, as expected the results would have been not extraordinary as you can see in picture no.2
Now, lets-s see what if will consider the places in the home table for home teams and in the away table for the away teams. We have some improvements already. Almost 7% profit for home win. It makes sense because we filtered teams with a good play at home vs teams with a bad play away (and too many players consider only overall teams performance)
See pictures no.3 and no.4
Now, let-s go a little bit further and check for home teams placed between 1-5, so they are very strong at home, and the odds over 2.00 (the potential has not been seen yet by the majority of the payers).
See pictures no.5 and no.6
The results are much better. See picture no 7.
Of course, the results are based on aveage odds but I am sure you got the idea. Don-t play what another 99% play becasue it-s not possible to have 99% of players winners on long term.
Finally,
of course, I will not be a hypocrite and to say that I did not want to show off the possibilities of my program.
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Someone asked me, in order to prepare the next day, if he can know the probabilities early, for ex. if will be 1-0 in 50 min what are the probabilities to score again H or A? No one can say what the probabilities are but LiveStats can say what has been in similar games in the same league last 15 seasons
For example for tomorrow game in Ligue1, I set the parameters like in the picture below. Then we ca see that home teams scored in 35.71% and away teams in 30.95% out of 126 games when home team had 1-0 in the 55 minute. Finally we can say that in 65% games there will be another goal until the end of the game.
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I received a lot of criticism, obviously, and some referred to the fact that the complexity of the program is overwhelming for those who have just discovered football statistics (and not only).
That-s why I created a Light version of the software for beginners or for those that just want basic football statistics.
It works like "the mother software" with regular updates...etc but has only the main sections and inside sections, the main features.
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I think it is a very important topic.
Until one of the experienced guys will help us with the answer I will say my opinion.
I think that one of the mistake the player does is to increase the stake too early. We have to understand that betting is a game of probabilities and the probability to lose all bets for the rest of our life is not 0. It is extremely small but is not 0. Of course this is an extreme example..
The most logical answer is to increase to 2 units when your bank is 200, in order to keep 1% from bank. Probably this would say most of the players.
The second logical answer would be to never increase the stake, and to save every 100 you get. Probably this would say just a few.
I prefer a combination: I would keep the stake 1 until I have 300, then save 100 and increase the stake to 2.
Now I have 200 and stake 2, still 1% but have 100 saved (my real pofit). A few comments here: Another mistake can be done is to think that the balance you see on your bookie, under your account are yours. No, the money are yours only when save them to your bank account.
Will keep it until I have 400, then save 100 and increase to 3...
And so on
As I said, this is what I think in this Monday early morning, the worst hours for my brain in the entire week
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One of the friends of my project asked for a tool to see what happened on set rounds or against similar teams with current opp Now you can find it in H2H section
Chelsea was one of the most profitable teams in the first 3 rounds.
Man.Utd games were losers no matter what market
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Added new features and improvements lately
The most important are:
New odds engine that allows you to select where come the odds from (from a list of 3 main bookies for now)
Will explain this a little bit later here
I added in UPCOMING section a few new buttons to allow you to select the bookie you want to be shown in the system. For now, there are 3 main bookies but the list will continue.
It is possible now to see the first odds collected ot the last odds collected (please note: first odds collected not the opening odds - but will be the same in many cases)
If you want to see odds movement you will see an improved odds movement screen
2. A few new improvements in CGMBet Live Stats
The most important thing so far is that I improved a lot the section where can see the games for future and past days. I added the odds stored for those games so it will be possible now to check the games a few days before and to be ready for action.
For example you can see tomorrow games and can see what will be the probabilities for 0 minute but also for 25 minute at 0-1 score.
The same thing for past games where you cam set the minute and will see the score at that minute and probabilities. That way you can compare with what really happened and to learn where are the best results.
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Should be OK now with the "upsets" section.
I managed last week to check the Brasilian Serie A, last 6 seasons data, and I think it is good enough now to be added to the Live Stats software (96.45% goals minutes data accuracy - will be futher improved). More features will be added soon to Live Stats as I decided to focus on this for the next months, to be more helpful in preparing the next days.
Of course the 50% discount coupon CGMPL1901 for PL registered members is still in place for the entire next season
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I am still working to set up the program for the next season.
Will be good to go in a few days, including "upsets'
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I have never denied the fact that my database can be used even better then I use in my software so you always had the possibility to export
More than that, from now on, in my members area, as VIP user, you can download in EXCEL format any league. The files contain the main data for the current season, including goals time and will be updated every morning.
Past seasons data are comming also!
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Just a few minor but useful new features
1 Sound alert when a job is done in the main sections and when is value or a goal is scored in LiveStats
2 Mini help buttons placed where users had most questions
3 Open for other suggestions!
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in Betting Systems & Strategy
Posted · Edited by giraldi
A new tutorial to learn to find (+) or (-) streaks, with examples like teams that scored at home many games in a row in 1-30 m.
The suggestions module still has +25% in the last 30 days and is going to release another 6 suggestions for today.
Of course, I have enough experience to know that +99% for DRAW market in the last 30 days in 17 bets can not be sustained for a long time but at the moment is very exciting to wait any new suggestion the module gives.
https://youtu.be/1akANPbhRJ4