giraldi
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Posts posted by giraldi
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Re: ELO & Poisson rating system Thank you chikilicuatre for your support. I really don-t think that here are users that judges a book by its cover so I hope the not perfect English is not a big obstacle to see the core. I can not wait until 1st December. I will start my prediction based on my rating system today. The results of course will count for December (only if are winning :) ) As I said the bank is 100 units, I play 1 unit for each bet, Pinnacle (if not, I will write the bookmaker) For the first month the main objective is to not loose entire bank :) So, let-s unleash the.."chaos". I also present the probabilities given by my rating system for the event. 1. Ita1. Catania - Milan Over 2.5 @ 2.06 (49.65%) 2. Spa1. Osasuna - Vallecano Under 2.5 @ 1.99 (62.17%) 3. Spa2. Murcia - EM Castilla Under 2.5 @ 2.25 (59,63%) 4. Fra1. Ajjacio - St. Etienne Draw @ 3.19 (35.25%) 5. Fra2. Monaco - Sedan Draw @ 4.06 (34.26%) 6. Fra2. Arles - Le Mans Over 2.5 @ 2.64 (50.10%) In my opinion good probabilities and good prices. At least 2 good bets won (I would prefer the draws) should be enough for the beginning.
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Re: ELO & Poisson rating system Thank you Datapunter for your comments. I am very impressed that you payed such attention to a new user but, on the other hand I am sure that my poor English is a handicap for me in explaining my system so you think that is chaos here. I don-t want to expose a lot of explanation but I assure you that I know very well what is ELO and Poisson. You are right, ELO was created for 2 players game but the name ELO stands for any rating system based on winning or loosing according with opponent strength. FIFA, UEFA and many others use this kind of system . I am sure you know. To calibrate such a system you need at least 30-40 games that is the reason I choose to start with calculation 3 years ago. All the team in Premier started with 2000 points, Championship with 1700..and so on. For promoted or relegated teams they maintained their rating..etc. Never the teams will be the same, of course, but the team rating is "alive". The team changes but the relative value is the same. If the strength is rising the rate will rising after few good games so doesn-t matter the players name. The final result for a game is given by the relative strength between opponents and not by the opponent strength. The 1-0 is the same between City and Utd or between 2 League Two teams. Only the difference is important. About Poisson. On Pinnacle site you can find an article about Poisson and how they calculate the probabilities (of course without any in deep suggestions). I choose to calculate probabilities for goals scored with Poisson formula considering last games for each team. A team with may goals scored at home on the last 5 games is likely to score again. Check the stats. So ..the probabilities given by the ELO difference and the probabilities given by the last scored games (to highlight recent form) are combined with different percents to result the final probabilities. You will be surprised what close I am to bookies probabilities for the majority of games. There are few games where the probabilities are some differences (sometimes big). Those games are my target. I have already said, I have some experience on betting. I tested all the probabilities against the real odds past 2 seasons and I choose only patterns that were with profit last 2 seasons and this season. For example - Segunda Division with the probabilities over 33% (according my rating) for draw was with profit last years and this season. This doesn-t mean that will be profitable for ever but worth to try. Of course I have a filter and don-t play whatever the rating present. I study the game head to head and than make my decision. Good to play or not. I think is common sense to filter all the games proposed based on my experience. And finally I want to assure you that I really know what to adjust. If you think that I use a paper and a pencil (or EXCEL) to calculate you are wrong. I can wait for Saturday (just because is a new month) to start my predictions. I wish you good luck too and even started with your 2 cents (I hope I understood ) bet on me, but be patient and give me an entire month .
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I have some experience on betting and stats and I would like to present you my strategy based on my own rating system. Description of the system I have at my disposal 35 European leagues with results for at least 5 seasons. Unfortunately I don-t have the odds but for 12 main leagues England 1,2,3,4 Italy Spain France and Germany first 2 leagues for each. Each team started with an value of 2000 points 3 seasons ago and depending on their results, according an ELO formula (a little bit modified) they won or lost points. Than for a given game I calculate the probabilities. This probability is than affected by the probability calculated with poison formula. for the past few games at home respectively away. In my opinion this correction will highlight recent form. After that I apply few more correction to take into account the type of the game for example - big local derby, ...etc I work to improve this correction to take into account more and more facts. For example I noticed that the games rescheduled have a different pattern than normal games and so on The final step is to compare my probabilities with the odds given by pinnacle to study a little bit head to head the teams to see what is about ( I will never pass to robots my money :) ) Next step is to include the real facts as - missing offensive or defensive good players -will affect with ? percent and so on I tested for my self this system and the results are encouraging. Last month (November) I tested on another forum with yield + 15% and 105 units invested. I can easy prove that. Staking plan Initial bank=100 units 1 unit for each bet. Last month were around 10 bets / day on weekend and maximum 1-2 on the other days I do not recommend to play real money yet I am open to any discussion about my rating. I do not believe in Santa Claus. I know I am not he first who try this but my results are as I have said encouraging. English is not my native language. I have already use all the English words I know :). I will try to show you good bets and good results.
ELO & Poisson rating system
in Betting Systems & Strategy
Posted
Re: ELO & Poisson rating system Datapunter, Roger that ! Robotel78, chikilicuatre Thank you !
Good start yesterday: 4 won out of 6 and +3.49 units. For today I will play another 11 bets with good probabilities good prices and most important with value (according with my rating - don-t blame me :)) 7. Eng2. Huddersfield - Leeds Over 2.5 @ 1.93 (54.75%) 8. Ger2. Union - Bochum Under 2.5 @ 2.23 (61.08%) 9. Ger1. Augsburg - Freiburg Freiburg @ 2.79 (43.95%) 10. Ger1. Furth - Stutgart Draw @ 3.52 (31.57%) 11. Ger1. Furth - Stutgart Under 2.5 @ 1.97 (61.91%) 12. Eng2. Bristol - Wolves Under 2.5 @ 2.10 (77.74%) 13. Spa2. Gijon - Las Palmas Draw @ 3.42 (32.47%) 14. Spa2. Lugo - Barcelona B Draw @ 3.54 (32.68%) 15. Spa2. Cordoba - Xerez Under 2.5 @ 1.90 (60.37%) 16. Fra1. Evian - Nancy Over 2.5 @ 2.10 (50.08%) 17. Ger1. Bayern - Dortmund Under 2.5 @ 2.39 (59.32%)