giraldi
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Posts
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Posts posted by giraldi
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Re: Let-s fight with their weapons Indeed, I made some test at it seems that is not a good idea. Considering previous and current season there are some teams or group of teams that may qualify to test on but the number of events is far too low and not worth the risk or effort to try. It was just an idea. Sorry for the space wasted on server :)
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Re: ELO & Poisson rating system
And reggarding my probabilities Maybe you are right. It doesn-t seem logical but we are here to do math and probabilities and not to check if it logical or not. :D My rating has a component where it verifies recent form and deviation from what we expect from a specific team of course taking into account opponent strength. Honestly, I don-t check my robots because I trust on them. I hope you remember the first low A robot may not injure a human being, or, through inaction, allow a human being to come to harm. I extended the term "injure" to cover the term "lost entire bank" :D But actually I did it for you this morning, by hand: So Cardiff had not a very good period. Last 5 games at home only 3 victories against very accessible opponents. More, with 4 points lost against Petersborugh and Ipswich - very accessible again. Only 5 goals scored. Derby scored much more at home against good opponents (Boro, Leeds).. I think it makes sense to think that Cardiff (much stronger team indeed) is on weaker period than Derby On the other hand, looking for Wolves and Bristol last weeks performances it seems to me that Bristol had few good games but Wolves won one last 10 games I don-t know maybe it is not logical but this is the way my software "thinks". Of course this is only a layer but this affected for sure entire percentage. Maybe the percent for Derby is too big .. but this was the reason I played Derby (-1) yesterday. It was lost but I did not see the game or stats to see what really happened there. Ok, and now my bets for today. Yesterday I lost 1.17 units. 48. Spa2. Hercules - Villareal Hercules AH(-0.5) @ 3.15 49. Spa1. Valladoid - At. Madrid Valladoid AH(0) @ 3.22 50. Ita1. Napoli - Sampdoria Sampdoria AH(+0.5) @ 2.83 51. Ger2. Frankfurt - Cottbus Frankfurt AH(-0.5) @ 2.46 52. Ita2. Novara - Verona Novara AH(-0.5) @ 3.05Regarding your selection percentages Two games jumped out at me! Cardiff you (61.33%) me 81.6%. versus Bristol City. Derby you (65.19%) me 53.04% versus Wolves. This seems very strange to me, lets look at the current team performance data. Cardiff are lying 1st posn with 64 points and positive goal diff +21 versus Bristol 23rd posn with 31 points and negative GD of -14. Derby are in 10th posn with 42 points and positive GD of +3 Wolves are in 21st posn with 34 points and negative GD of -8. At this stage of the season points won and goal diffrence are very strong indicators of relative team strength, assuming this to be correct how given the data above can your system predict that Derby (at home) have a better chance of beating Wolves than Cardiff (at home) have of beating Bristol city? The team performances of Derby and Wolves are very close (6 points and 11 goals in GD) versus Cardiff versus Bristol (33 points and 35 goals in GD). How can Derby be 65.19% and Cardiff be 61.33%?? It doesn't seem logical to me! :unsure -
Re: ELO & Poisson rating system
1. I totally agree with you that a bad management will put everyone down sooner. 2. The type of management depends and in my opinion must be adapted to the players temperament. On very bad period I think we have to take all the measures to resist longer and not to put all our hopes on miraculous comeback or to fight more aggressively against much stronger opponent. On the other hand we are all gamblers here, so we take chances. My management tries to combine few strategies. It is true that I will loose more on worse period but it worth to risk if the income could be bigger on better period For example. Let-s assume that initial bank is 100 eur and we bet 5 days, 10 units each day. Lets consider now first extreme situation - we loose everything. Lets consider now the second extreme situation - we win everything. This could be too nice so let-s consider only very good profit - 20% each day. Please notice I consider a little bit unbalanced situation. First situation Flat stake 1 unit=1 eur - new bank is 50 eur (I f you have not bad idea to rise your stake after first 3 days) My management - new bank - 38 eur. (considering I am limited to 1 eur minimum stake otherwise the bank is bigger) So the loss is around 25% bigger but We ca not say I am totally down Second situation Flat stake - you win 10 eur after 5 days My management - I have 17 eur more So the gain is 70% bigger in this situation. If we consider better yield of course the gain is bigger. I don-t say it is a good management, I just try it to see what happensIf I have understood correctly your bet size changes depending on your number of selections and is immediatley revised up/down depending on the result of the last set of selections?? I for one NEVER reduce my bet size after a losing streak as this increases the number of successful selections you need to make to return to breakeven point after your losses. Bad bankroll management will put you out of business sooner rather than later -
Re: ELO & Poisson rating system
I am testing my own management. Maybe it is not very usual but as you see I like to try a lot of new ways. I don-t like to go on busy roads. 1. I bet 1 unit for each selection. 2. I calculate the real value for the unit before each set of events so playing the same number of bets 5 more times, and lost every time all the bets to have at least 10 units (let-s say my safety belt). For example If the bank is 100 and I have 6 selections: 6 x 5 +10=40. I split my bank on 40 units. 1 unit= 2.5. If I loose everything I loose 2.5 * 6=15 Next time I play let-s say 5 events. So 5*5+10=35 and 1 unit=85/35= 2.42 If I am lucky (actually skill) I will have let-s say more 10 Next time I play let-s say 5 events. So 5*5+10=35 and 1 unit=110/35= 3.14 This way I keep control over the bank. If I am good period the value of the unit is growing but on bad period the value of the unit is going down. On the same time if I bet many selection the value of the units is lower. I don't know If it is clear for you.I did not read this just think my self about that. I don-t even know if it is original (I am also working right now to demonstrate a very interesting equation, E=MC2. I hope to be the first to discover it ) The probabilities for Championship today, calculated with my system :D 1,x,2,O,U The last five columns are odds from Pinnacle [TABLE=width: 895]what percentage of your bank do you bet on each selection? ( please don't say that you are using kelly criterion or 1star 2 star etc). -
Re: ELO & Poisson rating system
I don-t know if it more accurate, I am not so experienced to say that. Anyway, my rating gives me good probabilities on my opinion, very close to bookmakers probabilities. Of course there are some differences, not very big, for few games. I am a little bit confused indeed, because with these differences I had 2,5 month good profit but suddenly I lost almost everything within less than a month. The probabilities for today-s Ligue 2 games 1 X 2 O U [TABLE=width: 536]I don't know about being a special punter! lol but I Identified with your thread as I too have based my system on statistical/mathmatical models, I took a good look at ELO ratings as being part of my system but decided not to use them in the end. If you like ELO rating you may find this site of interest soccer-rating.com they produce ratings based on bookmakers odds and have a calculator where you can select home and away teams before the odds are available online, they are generally very accurate as to what the bookies will post as starting odds. The rating look similar to ELO ratings but are supposed to be more accurate? -
Re: ELO & Poisson rating system
New minimum - 11.61 units on February Exactly one month ago I had +12 units and thought that will be third month on profit but finished January -10 units. I think make sense to think that this month will be opposite situation :) For today 38. Fra2. Arles - Chamois Over 2.5 @ 2.94 39. Fra2. Ajjacio - Nimes Over 2.5 @ 2.58 40. Fra2. Le Mans - Caen Over 2.5 @ 2.76 41. Eng3. Tranmere - Shrewsbury Shrewsbury AH(+0.5) @ 2.0633. Eng2. Middlesbrough - Leeds Leeds AH(0) @ 2.62 34. Eng3. Brentford - Stevenage Stevenage AH(+0.25) @ 2.60 35. Eng3. Crewe - Bournemouth Crewe AH(-0.5) @ 3.66 36. Eng3. Yeovil- Preston Yeovil AH(-0.75) @ 2.46 37. Eng4. Wycombe - Bradford Wycombe AH(-0.5) @ 2.76 -
Re: ELO & Poisson rating system
1 unit lost yesterday I play tonight 33. Eng2. Middlesbrough - Leeds Leeds AH(0) @ 2.62 34. Eng3. Brentford - Stevenage Stevenage AH(+0.25) @ 2.60 35. Eng3. Crewe - Bournemouth Crewe AH(-0.5) @ 3.66 36. Eng3. Yeovil- Preston Yeovil AH(-0.75) @ 2.46 37. Eng4. Wycombe - Bradford Wycombe AH(-0.5) @ 2.7632. Ita2. Empoli - Livorno Livorno AH(-0.25) @ 2.54 -
Re: ELO & Poisson rating system
Thank you mrsnoopy !! I really appreciate your support especially because I noticed all your 3 posts are on my threads so you are a special punter for sure :D. :okYou are not Alone! my previously profitable system has leaked 23 points in jan/feb so far!! and it's getting a bit scary as i bet 1.5 points of a 100 point bankroll on each selection. At times like this you must resist the urge to change your system if it has been profitable over a long period as that is the road to ruin imo.
+2.31 units yesterday Today 32. Ita2. Empoli - Livorno Livorno AH(-0.25) @ 2.5427/ Ita1. Palermo - Pescara Pescara AH(+0.5) @ 2.73 28. Ita1. Inter - Chievo Chievo AH(+0.5) @ 2.5 29. Spa1. Vallecano - Atl Madrid Vallecano @ 3.58 30. Fra1. Rennes - Toulouse Toulouse AH(+0.25) @ 2.20 -
Re: Let-s fight with their weapons Hi, mrsnoopy I really don-t think I am wrong here. Of course they adjust the odds so they become attractive for all events but they first have to calculate the probabilities as close as they can These are starting odds and after that bets are placed they move the odds but almost never they will go much under probability calculated. In my opinion is a big risk for them to show odds with big value no matter the amount of money is involved. I totally agree that after this movements appears greater opportunities for value bets but very hard to find I don-t know, it is just my opinion
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Re: Let-s fight with their weapons Hi, zbrochu Thanks for your intervention and relevant observations 1. Of course the events are not so obviously related, though there might be a whole discussion especially if we consider the events in a certain well established area. Lotto games are absolutely unrelated events but when we speak about football and sports games in general, especially when limit the area of selection may be a discussion in my opinion. For example in a particular League, for a specific team event "team win" is not completely independent in my opinion of previous teams events. Otherwise, everything would turn to Lotto and then we don’t have any chance to beat the bookmakers. So I guess it's not about a pure “gambler fallacy†here as long as the events are not 100% independent and the event “goal†(the base for all events) is not really random. (more chances to appear on some circumstances) If you think so then, for a team very unlucky, as you say, the next event is absolutely independent and so can't say anything about that or that team may be forever unlucky 2. The number of events, again I agree with you, I used small numbers just to understand the idea. The idea is to catch the trend. 3. Maybe is stupid think but I am willing to try this idea (and you now I have the tools) on narrow enough areas to keep minimum connection between events. Will see what happens Thank you again for your intervention. Maybe you are perfectly right but don-t destroy my little dreams.
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I'm not sure it's an original idea. It came to mind after I lost in 3 weeks almost all the advantage I gain for 2 months If we consider true the following statements: 1. Payout of bookmakers and our loss is based on the calculation of probabilities for events on long-term 2. Bookmakers approximates probabilities much better than us for a specific event 3. The laws of statistics are available for all bookmakers and bettors For simplicity let’s take the case of an event for which it is offering odds of 2.00. This listing suggests a probability of 50%. According to bookmakers margin we can assume that the true probability is 45%. No one knows the exact probability of an event and everyone can go wrong, including them, let's say + or -10%. Let's assume that the mistake is on their advantage and so we can easily assume then that a real probability for 2.00 offered is around 40% This means that betting on 10 units, win 4 games so 8 units. On the whole, forever losing 2 units every 10 invested. So probably the system works. Now, of course the statistics allow us to win the first 300 bets in a row that we have 600 won at 300 units invested. If we continue to play the laws of statistics work and when we draw the line at 1000 units we have lost 200. So we want or do not want the results are according to the theory. But that's not the same for them? Statistically they can earn 200 at a time and so we have 0 units won and 200 units invested. Statistics will continue to work and to 1000 invested we lose again 200 units. The idea is if you don't play the first 200 bets? We have 1,600 won at 800 units invested. This example is extremely. I put it so you understand. To see in practice: Let-s say that we have the Pinncale odds between 2.50 and 3.00. Considering what I've said above, considering their margin and approximation errors, in the worst case the probability, for this range of odds, is about 25% They are very good on calculated odds so we expect 25 matches out of 100 to be winning for odds in this range. If you are at the beginning of a season and 10 games with odds in this range that have not come out winning is correct to think that statistics will work and will have more events won to achieve the level of winning 25 percent? I have the tools to check this theory and I make a small program for that. I know it seems like kind of a Martingale but I think is far more subtle. What is your opinion?
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Re: ELO & Poisson rating system
10.38 units lost this month. I don-t believe my rating is so bad suddenly. Due to my system I spent less time with my puppy (see the avatar). They say that a dog is as smart as the owner so I think it is possible to be shoved his paw and have changed something in my software program. I'll check this out. For today 27/ Ita1. Palermo - Pescara Pescara AH(+0.5) @ 2.73 28. Ita1. Inter - Chievo Chievo AH(+0.5) @ 2.5 29. Spa1. Vallecano - Atl Madrid Vallecano @ 3.58 30. Fra1. Rennes - Toulouse Toulouse AH(+0.25) @ 2.2023. Ang1. Sunderland - Arsenal Sunderland AH(+0.5) @ 2.10 24. Ang2. Peterborough - Leicester Peterborough AH(+0.5) @ 2.23 25. Ang3. Shrewsbury - Sheffield Shrewsbury AH(+0.25) @ 1.98 26. Ang3. Carlisie - Stevenage Stevenage AH(+0.25) @ 1.96 -
Re: ELO & Poisson rating system
Ar least I was ready to face higher losses :) Start to think that I am caught with "candid camera" :) I did not have so poor period since I started to bet, many years ago. Still I keep calm but I don't know how much longer I can :@ In any case it is very clear that I have to be very cautious during this period. For today 23. Ang1. Sunderland - Arsenal Sunderland AH(+0.5) @ 2.10 24. Ang2. Peterborough - Leicester Peterborough AH(+0.5) @ 2.23 25. Ang3. Shrewsbury - Sheffield Shrewsbury AH(+0.25) @ 1.98 26. Ang3. Carlisie - Stevenage Stevenage AH(+0.25) @ 1.96Today I am back, very calm, and I am ready to face higher losses :cigar 19. Eng2. Watford - Crystal Palace Watford AH(-0.5) @ 2.02 20. Fra2. Ajaccio - Dijon Ajjaccio AH(-0.5) @ 2.27 21. Fra2. Ajaccio - Dijon Ajjaccio Over 2.5 @ 2.30 22. Fra2. Chamois - Istres Chamois AH(-0.5) @ 2.25 22. Fra2. Chamois - Istres Over 2.5 @ 2.59 -
Re: ELO & Poisson rating system
"Very good results" again and I felt the need to take a break. Today I am back, very calm, and I am ready to face higher losses :cigar My selections for today 19. Eng2. Watford - Crystal Palace Watford AH(-0.5) @ 2.02 20. Fra2. Ajaccio - Dijon Ajjaccio AH(-0.5) @ 2.27 21. Fra2. Ajaccio - Dijon Ajjaccio Over 2.5 @ 2.30 22. Fra2. Chamois - Istres Chamois AH(-0.5) @ 2.25 22. Fra2. Chamois - Istres Over 2.5 @ 2.5916. Ger2. TSV Munchen - Kaiserslautern TSV Munchen AH(0) @ 2.26 17. Eng4. Gillingham - Wycombe Wycombe AH(+0.5) @ 2.50 18. Spa2. RM Castilla - Almeria Under 2.5 @ 2.32 -
Re: ELO & Poisson rating system
Again, it was very easy to color results, just few clicks. I have already put red color as the default font color :lol Nothing to say.. -3.11 units on February. For today 16. Ger2. TSV Munchen - Kaiserslautern TSV Munchen AH(0) @ 2.26 17. Eng4. Gillingham - Wycombe Wycombe AH(+0.5) @ 2.50 18. Spa2. RM Castilla - Almeria Under 2.5 @ 2.328. Ang1. Manchester City - Liverpool Manchester City AH(-1) @ 2.58 9. Ita1. Palermo - Atalanta Draw @ 3.33 10. Ita1. Pescara - Bologna Draw @ 3.34 11. Ita1. Milan - Udinese Udinese AH(+0.5) @ 2.78 12. Spa1. Sevilla - Vallecano Under 2.5 @ 2.28 13. Spa1. At. Madrid - Betis Betis AH(+1) @ 2.31 14. Ger1. Nurnberg - Borussia Borussia AH(0) @ 2.27 15. Ger2. Jahn - Hertha Hertha AH(-1.5) @ 2.66 -
Re: "Sports-Betting as a Business" strategy
I hate you zbrochu ! Your results are excellent and my project looks now like a kindergarten level project. :rollin Thanks so much for this zbrochu ! :okI hate you stinkinggonads :) -
Re: ELO & Poisson rating system
+1.23 units for the first attempt on February For today, I have changed the style but "the engine" is the same 8. Ang1. Manchester City - Liverpool Manchester City AH(-1) @ 2.58 9. Ita1. Palermo - Atalanta Draw @ 3.33 10. Ita1. Pescara - Bologna Draw @ 3.34 11. Ita1. Milan - Udinese Udinese AH(+0.5) @ 2.78 12. Spa1. Sevilla - Vallecano Under 2.5 @ 2.28 13. Spa1. At. Madrid - Betis Betis AH(+1) @ 2.31 14. Ger1. Nurnberg - Borussia Borussia AH(0) @ 2.27 15. Ger2. Jahn - Hertha Hertha AH(-1.5) @ 2.661. Eng1. West Ham - Swansea Draw @ 3.40 (44.90%) 2. Eng2. Sheffield - Brighton Over 2.5 @ 2.17 (52.26%) 3. Eng3. MK Dons - Bournemouth Bournemouth @ 2.85 (44.12%) 4. Ita1. Torino - Sampdoria Torino @ 2.09 (55.30%) 5. Ita1. Torino - Sampdoria Over 2.5 @ 2.36 (49.59%) 6. Spa2. Las Palmas - Elche Draw @ 3.21 (36.04%) 7. Ger1. Hoffenheim - Freiburg Freiburg @ 2.80 (47.60%) -
Re: ELO & Poisson rating system Lost last one and the better thing about January - it is over. Finally I decided to not consider November, very good month with +19 units, only just to see myself a lower profit so to be more motivated :D Anyway I don-t consider the fall from +12 to -10 units on 12 days this month something normal but only a direct hit of Goddess of probabilities. Before next monthly attempt: December 19.23 units 13.63% January -9.63 units -10.35% Total 9.6 units +4,1% For today 1. Eng1. West Ham - Swansea Draw @ 3.40 (44.90%) 2. Eng2. Sheffield - Brighton Over 2.5 @ 2.17 (52.26%) 3. Eng3. MK Dons - Bournemouth Bournemouth @ 2.85 (44.12%) 4. Ita1. Torino - Sampdoria Torino @ 2.09 (55.30%) 5. Ita1. Torino - Sampdoria Over 2.5 @ 2.36 (49.59%) 6. Spa2. Las Palmas - Elche Draw @ 3.21 (36.04%) 7. Ger1. Hoffenheim - Freiburg Freiburg @ 2.80 (47.60%)
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Re: How to create a decent drawing system Here are very good players who definitely will give you good tips. Until then please allow me to tell you my opinion. I agree with your approach, but I would think paying attention to the following aspects: 1.To play for draw, in my opinion, is one of the hardest strategies. Statistics do not help much since with the current system with 3 points for a win and 1 for a draw the teams will not be motivated to draw. You must first find the teams that to be happy or to have interest to get a draw in the next match and not teams that have many draws in the past. No one wants many draws, but like many victories. For example, in the Premier, thinking absurd, after 24 rounds and 24 draws, a team would be slightly above relegation. 2. to play in leagues with many draws is not the best idea in my opinion. We're not looking to win more betting but we want to win more units. You will not get the fair price for draw in those leagues and in time will be disadvantageous. 3. it is important to view the history of direct meetings. If there are many draws you can't say anything but if there are few draws probably will be now on and the match should be avoided. It is well known that there are certain affinities between teams, clubs, cities, ... etc. It is better to take the three points at home (or away) than only one point each after 2 draws. I am not sure it is useful for you but it is what I am thinking now.
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Re: ELO & Poisson rating system
1.66 units lost and for January total is -8.63 units. It would be too good to be so bad my system because that would mean that the "Lay giraldi" system would be a kind of magic system. I hope it is about very bad period, of course followed by a very good period. :) Today I try 93. Spa1. Sevilla- Granada Under 2.5 @ 2.12 (58.91%)86. Ita1. Catania - Fiorentina Catania @ 3.26 (50.29%) 87. Ita1. Sampdoria - Pescara Draw @ 3.84 (50.22%) 88. Ita1. Atalanta - Milan Over 2.5 @ 2.07 (53.08%) 89. Ita1. Parma - Napoli Over 2.5 @ 2.08 (50.80%) 90. Ita1. Udinese - Siena Over 2.5 @ 2.02 (51.87%) 91. Spa2. Xerez - Almeria Draw @ 3.29 (35.12%) 92. Fra1. Nice - Bordeaux Draw @ 3.18 (33.69%) -
Re: ELO & Poisson rating system
So far I got serious loss in January. -6.97 units. The fall was too quick, almost 20 units in 10 days to blame it on the system, so I will not change anything. After all I have still profit since I started. All I can hope for in January is to reduce losses 86. Ita1. Catania - Fiorentina Catania @ 3.26 (50.29%) 87. Ita1. Sampdoria - Pescara Draw @ 3.84 (50.22%) 88. Ita1. Atalanta - Milan Over 2.5 @ 2.07 (53.08%) 89. Ita1. Parma - Napoli Over 2.5 @ 2.08 (50.80%) 90. Ita1. Udinese - Siena Over 2.5 @ 2.02 (51.87%) 91. Spa2. Xerez - Almeria Draw @ 3.29 (35.12%) 92. Fra1. Nice - Bordeaux Draw @ 3.18 (33.69%) Without any connection with my strategy. Last year I was thinking about a prank for one of my friend, also deeply involved in betting (much more than me). The idea is to redirect his live scores site to a new site, manipulated by another friend.( His younger brother has access to his computer and is willing to join us anytime) I can not imagine his face when he will lose all the game, one by one, after "all green" on 89 minute.:lol I am still thinking of that. He deserves it for sure. :)72. Eng3. Colchester - Walsall Walsall @ 2.57 (44.54%) 73. Eng3. Portsmouth - Hartlepool Hartlepool @ 2.78 (45.90%) 74. Eng3. Preston- Coventry Coventry @ 3.03 (48.45%) 75. Eng3. Shrewsbury - Bury Over 2.5 @ 2.03 (59.67%) 76. Ita1. Lazio - Chievo Over 2.5 @ 2.12 (53.48%) 77. Ita2. Padova - Livorno Livorno @2.82 (41.94%) 78. Ita2. Vercelli - Reggina Reggina @ 2.95 (53.65%) 79. Ita2. Spezia - Verona Verona @ 2.69 (40.10%) 80. Spa1. Celta Vigo - Sociedad Sociedad @ 3.4 (36.64%) 81. Spa2. Girona - Guadalajara Draw @ 3.62 (35.21%) 82. Spa2. Lugo - Las Palmas Draw @ 3.27 (33.14%) 83. Spa2. Santander - Cordoba Draw @ 3.24 (33.21%) 84. Spa2. Elche - Hercules Over 2.5 @ 2.09 (67.57%) 85. Fra2. Monaco - Guincamp Draw @ 3.37 (31.54%) -
Re: How do I use Kelly staking plan on concurrent singles? The events are at the same time, but you can not put the stake at the same time, but only one by one. So, as long as Kelly relies on to bet a percentage of the real bank and not the money that is not yours (pending bets) I think it makes sense to put your bets in "the value" order and to consider the Bank left after each bet. I think it's much more wise so that this strategy is very risky and only very experienced players who rightly appreciate probabilities have success. And If you allow me I would suggest to use Half Kelly or even smaller . Full Kelly is very exciting, very big bank variations in short time. It is for those who do not have heart problems. But, I think the best option would be to wait for the more experienced punters opinions.
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Re: ELO & Poisson rating system
It looks like Superman has no time for me so I have to handle it alone :) Both bets lost and for the first time this month - 1.91 units. Still decent. Considering last 25 bets I won only 4. Let-s think positive Could be worst. To won none. On the other hand I noticed a very big advantage to lost many bets in a row. It is very easy to make it red all together - just few clicks. Not necessary to select red, green, red, green. Boring. :) For today 72. Eng3. Colchester - Walsall Walsall @ 2.57 (44.54%) 73. Eng3. Portsmouth - Hartlepool Hartlepool @ 2.78 (45.90%) 74. Eng3. Preston- Coventry Coventry @ 3.03 (48.45%) 75. Eng3. Shrewsbury - Bury Over 2.5 @ 2.03 (59.67%) 76. Ita1. Lazio - Chievo Over 2.5 @ 2.12 (53.48%) 77. Ita2. Padova - Livorno Livorno @2.82 (41.94%) 78. Ita2. Vercelli - Reggina Reggina @ 2.95 (53.65%) 79. Ita2. Spezia - Verona Verona @ 2.69 (40.10%) 80. Spa1. Celta Vigo - Sociedad Sociedad @ 3.4 (36.64%) 81. Spa2. Girona - Guadalajara Draw @ 3.62 (35.21%) 82. Spa2. Lugo - Las Palmas Draw @ 3.27 (33.14%) 83. Spa2. Santander - Cordoba Draw @ 3.24 (33.21%) 84. Spa2. Elche - Hercules Over 2.5 @ 2.09 (67.57%) 85. Fra2. Monaco - Guincamp Draw @ 3.37 (31.54%)70. Fra2. Angers - Arles Draw @ 3.34 (36.93%) 71. Fra2. Nantes - Tours Draw @ 3.59 (31.51%) -
Re: ELO & Poisson rating system
I have now 0.19 units profit this month. Still good profit :D After a 25-day journey and 70 bets I got in the place where I started I think I have managed to prove that not only the Earth but also the bets are round. :D Today I try 70. Fra2. Angers - Arles Draw @ 3.34 (36.93%) 71. Fra2. Nantes - Tours Draw @ 3.59 (31.51%) Tonight I know if I will turn to the dark side of bets. I was there before and I am a little bit afraid because the dark side is very strong. :D Like Homer Simpson said “I'm not normally a praying man, but if you're up there, please save me, Superman!†:D69. Eng2. Blackburn - Brighton Over 2.5 @ 1.97 (76.14%)
ELO & Poisson rating system
in Betting Systems & Strategy
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Re: ELO & Poisson rating system
+3.34 units yesterday I almost forgot how it is to have 70% profit in one day O tempora... 53. Fra2. Dijon - Monaco Dijon AH(-0.5) @ 3.50 54. Eng3. Crawley - Doncaster Doncaster AH(-0.5) @ 3.31 55. Ita1. Siena - Lazio Siena AH(-0.5) @ 3.26