giraldi
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Posts posted by giraldi
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I had few free days and I managed to finish what is now one of my favorite feature of the software. Actually the idea came from one VIP user member. What it is about. The section GOALS was good but only the graph presented was not enough to help somebody too much, especially in live betting. So the idea was to use the database to see what happened in the past games on different scenarios. It is possible now to select a league or two teams and to see what happened in the previous similar games in the case it was 1-1 in the 46th minute. For example I selected Everton (current ELO 1790) vs Tottenham (current ELO 1878) and 1-0 in the 46th minute. I selected "All seasons" in the database and ELO range +/- 75. That means that will be considered all games where home team had ELO between 1715 and 1865 and away team had ELO between 1803 and 1953. The range may be adjusted. Now, on the right we have a table with all the percent for home, draw, away, over or under 0.5,1.5,2.5 and of course the percent for correct score at half time and full time. Click on every column header to sort the values in order to see what is the bigger percent...etc On the graph, as you already now are presented how many goals were scored for each minute. As I see,if the score was 1-0 in the 46th, until 60th minute Everton (teams like Everton vs teams like Tottenham) scored more (also in the last 10 minutes) In my opinion this tool may be used on live betting so the values can be switched to odds instead of percent. Please be careful I did not say probabilities but percent. This is what happened in the past. It is very very possibly to happen in the future but we have to take into account other variables also.
- Vilamoura04 and froment
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1. First of all many thanks for those VIP users who provided feed-back, here or on my personal email. It helps me a lot to improve my project. 2. Starting with this season the software has 3 levels:BASIC, ADVANCED and VIP. The only differences between ADVANCED and VIP are the EXPORT function and the ODDS REFRESH every 5 minutes. 3. Every month, starting now, I will release 5 free licenses for PL members 3 ( 1 VIP, 2 ADVANCED ) for all members: 2 ( 2 VIP ) for members with at least 50 posts and at least 1 years account on PL. Just contact me and provide your user name and I give you instructions. 4. Following some users suggestion I improved the STATISTICS section. I added new columns in order to present more detailed data. On the same time I added more data for other 10 leagues: Shots, shots on goal, corners, ball possession..etc. Would be very interesting and probably useful to make a correlation between shots on target, ball possession and number of goals..but this will be implemented soon. The table is presented at LEAGUE or TEAM level, as you like. The program allows you now to select only 1,2,3....or few leagues or teams in order to compare them. Of course, at team level may be selected only home games or only away games...etc. Not very much to see on the picture because not all leagues started but you may see what it is about.
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Re: CgmBet System - a powerful statistical tool Hi Mirco, I will generate your license soon. I am sorry but this is the last free VIP license for this season (there was more than 20). Starting with 1 September will offer other 10 VIP licenses. Speaking about the next season, I have just started to work for the 2015/2016 season version. If there are some opinions, advices, comments, new features , this is the moment to make suggestions. I think next season version will be available no later than 15 August. On the other hand, I would like to announce that I have a similar project for tennis. I hope will be finished in September and full operational for the next season. Of course I hope will have your help too. I already have more than 5000 tourneys data - it is about few months work already and it is not full completed. I hope will have at least the same success as football version.
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Re: CgmBet System - a powerful statistical tool todorov7788, phaethon I sent you the VIP licenses and I hope my software will be useful for you. I would appreciate your opinions and especially your critics and/or suggestion to improve.
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Re: CgmBet System - a powerful statistical tool Just install the software then click the UPDATE button to see your license code. Follow the instructions and send me the code using the form on my CONTACT page. As soon as possible I will send you back your VIP license code. Please mention you are PL member.
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Re: CgmBet System - a powerful statistical tool Unfortunately I am not an expert in the field, just using some kind of web browser type automation, a very long time consumer. Regarding blocking, I do not know what to say, if you should be blocked if use some free data as correct scores, goal minutes..etc. If you read them on the web page and then write down on EXCEL manually..ok taking hours, then make some calculations, then sell your work ...you should be blocked because you copied the correct half-time scores? Of course I admit that maybe it is a grey zone and may be a lot of discussions regarding data provided by free web sites. On the other hand using my methods means a lot of wasted time. For the next season I seriously take into consideration the possibility to get data from some other sources..more "professional" and to pay for that. Anyway, will never be sure if they use a 100% legal sources or not..and so on. To answer to your question, I had not problems so far. (As I said I used very "friendly" web browser types methods following by some kind of "manual-automation" It is like I read the pages. If you hit the servers so hard causing denial of service with your scraping methods of course you should be blocked.)
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Re: CgmBet System - a powerful statistical tool
Hello' date=' I just tried your program and it is very interesting. I would like to ask what type of data sources do you use. Are the data from free websites or there are more professional sources ?[/quote'] evil_inside, I am sorry for the late response. Most of data are from free websites (maybe 75%), I use data from PINNACLE (also free) and some from other providers (not professional and not free). -
Re: CgmBet System - a powerful statistical tool Finally, I introduced 2 new leagues as few of my Asian friends asked me many times.
China - Super League
South Korea - K league
Database contain only current season for the new leagues. Maybe over summer will complete the database with past seasons.
In order to use efficiently the information in the database I recommend to set the time zone for the software. To do that just go to SETTINGS tab. This way is also possible to see another new feature: the games already played have different color and the games within next 1 hour are highlighted.
Of course, there are maybe few adjustments to make, please report any bugs.
Speaking about bugs, I know that few VIP users did not manage to start properly the program. Just contact me to try to fix the particular issues.
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Re: CgmBet System - a powerful statistical tool Hi Smalldevil just install the software and click UPDATE button in order to see your user code. Follow the instructions. Of course I will give VIP licenses for the entire software life for anyone asks for it on this forum. My only request is to help me with feedback in order to improve the project. Thank you for those who sent me their feedback, especially the negative ones. They helped me very very much. Unfortunately, there was some errors for few computer configurations. I made a lot of improvements lately (including better installation on WINDOWS 8.1) so if somebody had problems with the installation last months please give it another chance. I do not mind if write here all the problems. On the other hand, following today-s chat with an unhappy user, I would like to stress again that my software is not a prediction software, it is not possible to find good bets to take them as they are. My software would like to be just a help for those who thinks that a good bet is starting with deep understanding of statistics and especially probabilities. After that, when the race starts you already are in the first rows but just your experience and your knowledge will make you a real winner. Keep in mind that you are not fighting against the houses but against the other players. Fortunately, most of them think that betting is about good luck and inspiration, that Barcelona, Real....will win every game until the end of times and 1.15 is a great price. Speaking about improvements, I introduce a new feature - "My teams". It is possible now to set your favorite teams and then follow them in the UPCOMINGS section
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Re: CgmBet System - a powerful statistical tool Ok, now I have just started to "play" with my new toy and tried to make this new data to work for us. The odds are are now colored based on their direction. For example intense colors means that the odds dropped (increased) 3 times in a row since light colors means the odds just decreased (increased) considering last update.
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Re: CgmBet System - a powerful statistical tool One of my dreams, related to my project, come true. The odds are updated automatically every 5 minutes. (as you know it is about Pinnacle odds). The odds are colored if they moved up or down comparing the last update. More than that, if you click on the game ant then click on the "Odds movements" button you may see a picture like below. You may find this feature all over the web, with more powerful options and more bookmakers but still I am very happy with this achievement. This is just the beginning, there are many things to do with this information. Of course I am open to any suggestion.
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Re: CgmBet System - a powerful statistical tool Maybe there is not very clear indeed, but as I said the help file is far behind the software version due to very rapidly development.. sorry for that. I hope I will fix that next summer. Anyway, it is not about goals scored but games where the team scored (at least one goal) or received (at least one goal). Considering your example, if the team played away, it is easy to see there are 4 games where the team scored and 9 games where the team received goals. Regarding VIP access, just read the mail I sent you back
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Re: CgmBet System - a powerful statistical tool
Of course I am not the right person to answer, because I can not be 100% objective. However, I do not know very well the product you mentioned but seems to be a very valuable resource with a lot of features. Of course it is much more expensive but on the other hand it is much more "professional" looking, compared with my "home made" product built with limited resources and after all maintained at "hobby level". It is very clear to me that the two product can not be compared because they play on different leagues. Form labs is much better in my opinion in terms of data accuracy, speed, stability, infos...and not only. The great advantage of my software is flexibility and the number of "mini" features. Perhaps over 80% of the features have been developed using users ideas and suggestions. For example, just yesterday I improved the EXPORT section (choose the order the exported table is sorted) in order to address a VIP user request. Regarding to Valiant Thor said, in order to be 100% honest my software is not totally free. Of course I gave more than 20 free licenses for PL members (and I will continue to offer - just ask) but for normal users in order to use all the program features, for the entire software life - not only a month or a season, it is necessary to support my project with a minimum donation. I use only my head and my hands but still have to pay some fees and to justify 1-2 hours/day to my wife - this is the hardest part :)) Ok, now because I promised that, I introduced the data about shots, shots on target, corners, fouls and ball possession in the "Statistics" tab of the "Table" section. In the picture I selected Premier league and then "corners" only for the away games. In the table are presented the no of games played, the team's corners and the corners for the opponent team. Of course there are average values. By the way - it seems to me there is an unexpected 'leader"How do this product compare to football form labs ? Anyone tried both ?
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Re: CgmBet System - a powerful statistical tool As I said before, I managed to add some extra data as shots, shots on target, ball possession. These are available only for 13 leagues at this moment. Now I have the tools and data to find the answer for a problem that I asked myself many times. Is there a relation between shots, shots on target, ball possession in the past few games and the result in the next game? Let-s say that our team lost 3 out of 5 last games but every time they had the ball possession , more shots on target...etc. As the statistics shows us, they played well but for some reasons they did not managed to win. The question is : Will they have some advantages for the next game? Will worth to back them at good price? For sure I will add something about this problem in my project but at this moment I am not very sure how to handle this. I have some ideas but if you have any suggestion it would be highly appreciated.
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Re: CgmBet System - a powerful statistical tool
Sorry for the late response. I have just activated your license. Actually I do not think there are Pl members who asked for VIP licenses and did not receive. If there are the "first minute goal" market lovers, I improved in the GOALS sections, the "first minute goal" feature. For example, in the picture you may see, for the game (chosen randomly) Leicester - Manchester Utd., the first goal minute in the similar games I think the picture is clear enough. The most probable interval is 1-15, scored by Manchester (blue). Also we can notice that if the score is still 0-0 on 40 minute, it is very probable the next 10-15 minutes for the first goal of the game. Next, you have a very powerful tool on your hand. Let-s see what happens if in the 60 minute the score is still 0-0. Select “Start minute†to 60 and “Current score†0-0. Of course you may select the score you want but always take into account the confidence - the number of preview games considered.PLS CAN I GET A FREE VIP LICENCE?. THE SOFTWARE LOOKS GREAT
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Re: CgmBet System - a powerful statistical tool
Of course, I have just sent your VIP license. Anyone who has the patience to read this thread from the beginning and notice that here are free VIP licenses for PL users deserves a VIP license :) By the way, I extended the number of leagues which include the stats about shots, shots on goal, corners, fouls, yellow cards and ball possession. So we have now England, Italy, Spain, Germany first two leagues and France, Greece, Netherlands, Portugal and Turkey - just first leagues. Also I made some improvements in the UPCOMING section regarding positive and negative streaks.Hey giraldi I just noticed and downloaded your app and seems so great man! Any chance that I may get a VIP license as well ? Thanks -
Re: CgmBet System - a powerful statistical tool suenamichel, the program is written using an old fashion "VFP 9.0" (good and cheap - the only one I know and the only one I afforded at the time I started). There are possible errors on the modern OS but most of them can be fixed. Just send me a mail with the problem and with the errors log as the program instructs you. I am very sorry for the inconvenience but I develop this project in my spare time and I do not afford a professional environment yet. Speaking about development, following some users suggestion I introduced in the UPCOMING section grid new columns. It is about streaks (positive and negative). There are available streaks for won, draw. lost, scored, received, over, under. Just use the button highlighted. Of course will follow some filters in order to highlight some values.
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Re: CgmBet System - a powerful statistical tool suenamichel Sure, just install the software then click the UPDATE button. Please send me your user code. I wrote the first line of the software exactly 4 years ago. Good opportunity to offer PL members more 9 VIP licenses for the current season! The offer is available for the current users too. And more good news for all statistics lovers! The top leagues have shots, shots on goal, corners, fouls, yellow cards and ball possession data now. So the data are available only for the top leagues and for this season but more leagues will be added. I am sure will not be possible for all leagues but will see how much spare time will have for that. I have already inserted data as follows: 1. In the TABLE section, on the right panel you may see now ball possession and shots on target for the both teams.
2. In the UPCOMING section the data are included in the main grid. If you want to not scroll the image just click on the button and will switch between "normal view" and "stats view"
3. In the EXPORT main section the data are available for export (just for the VIP users)
Of course I am waiting your suggestions how to use efficiently this new data in the other sections. -
Re: CgmBet System - a powerful statistical tool Thank you froment. I think it is possibly. The only concern is about user's computer performance. There are A LOT of calculation for all the games in the grid. As I noticed a lot of users has not patience at all (actually this is the reason the industry of betting has so great success...) and 10 seconds is too late to receive the results. What I presented is calculated offline and it is inside the database. (if will be considered useful can insert that in the export option) Anyway I will try to do that next week to see what happens.Eventually I will create an option to disable (or enable) your suggestion. Any change should be available after update. Only in the case of major update FAIL (it happened) is necessary a clean install.
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Re: CgmBet System - a powerful statistical tool Thank you for your comments. I am vary happy if it-s useful for you. Regarding VIP licenses I think I released more than 20 for PL members. The problem is that I gave the licenses without check if the user is PL member indeed. In order to correct that I will give another 5 VIP licenses, but this time I will check carefully. Now, to not think it is very big difference between regular user and VIP user. Around 90% of the features and leagues are available for regular users. The VIP licenses give you just few more powerful features. Ok... now I will introduce a brand new feature. Many times I was thinking to find the games that fit some criteria and this games to be highlighted. For example let-s say I am searching every week for the games where home team scored every game in the last 10 at home and away teams received goals every game in the last 5 home&away. The new ALERTS feature allow you to save up to 9 such filter. Then every time you go UPCOMING section the games that fit the filters will be highlighted and the number of the filter will be displayed. The features is still under developing and I am open to suggestions, maybe filters depend on form, rating, odds...etc. Also may be some bugs ....but will fix them all. I do not remember what filter number 1 I saved here for testing but filter number 2 is teams without draw games at home in the last 10 games against teams without teams without draw games away in the last 10 games. As you see Real Madrid - Atletico has been highlighted. It is just for testing purpose.
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Re: CgmBet System - a powerful statistical tool I am sure the subject “Gambler’s fallacy†has been discussed a lot here. Of course the concept is real but the main question is “Is this applicable to series of football gamesâ€? I am not an expert but at first sight, without in deep assessment my answer is “NOâ€. Why? Because, considering football games, the events are not independent. (like lottery for example – where each time the event of extraction 6 balls are independent of the previous). The same situation for the Roulette games. Considering the best team in the league, let-s say will play 10 games in row (one per week) against the 10 worst teams in the league (let-s say they have the same value). Of course nothing extraordinary happens between first and the last game. I was wondering the probability for the best team to win in the first game is the same with the probability to win in the last game? I will let you to think about….., but if not, it is fair enough to think that if the big team not lost for a number of game this event has bigger and bigger chances to happen (of course ..to be check other information)? Now, we all know that finding upsets is the beautiful dream of any punter. Helped by my database I found out the series of “no upsets†for the main leagues. I have no patience to check for all leagues but what I found for France League 1. Considering big team with the odds under 1.50, last seasons never happened to be more that 5-6 games in a row of such games without something to happen there. This season we have the same situation but now there are 8 games in a row without “upsets†as you may see in the picture. The next possible upsets are Lyon – Caen and Guincamp – PSG. I do not say will happen this week and of course is needed a better analyze but is obvious that the “wrong step is comingâ€. The odds for +0.5 for the underdogs are around 2.70. Please note that in this thread is all about statistics. In order to have a good bet we have to consider many things (info, players, ....etc).
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Re: CgmBet System - a powerful statistical tool As soon as anyone find my entire database on my site for free I did not see any reason to keep blocked the database export in the software. This features is absolutely free to use Actually is the same database. The advantage using the software is that you may choose what the file contains. Select league(s), season(s) and what columns to contain the exported file. Finally you choose the type of the file (EXCEL or CSV) and click the EXPORT button. May be useful for those who love statistics and would like to create their own systems
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Re: CgmBet System - a powerful statistical tool
Ok, but your email seems to have problems. I sent to the address you registered and received some errors. Also, you disabled "private message" . As a result I would ask you here to give me the opportunity, ia a way or another, to offer your VIP license :))I've emailed you via your website. Thank you. -
Re: CgmBet System - a powerful statistical tool Orhane, I have just send your VIP license code to the e-mail address you are registered. More 13 free VIP licenses to be given for PL members. On the other hand, I received congratulations for the game "Stoke - Burnley" 1-2. This is exactly what I try hard to avoid. I say again: the software is not a prediction software or something. It was very wrong to bet only considering the elements I presented on the last post. This time was good but it was pure luck without some in deep analyses. I will try to avoid to give this kind of examples in the future. Never bet based only on statistics (never bet based only on feelings, odds,...etc). It is a good point of start to focus only on few games instead of hundreds but every game must be analyzed very carefully - players, odds, last moment info... etc. Maybe seems to be weird to say that, as statistics program owner, but there are far behind the enthusiastic times when I bet "only with my heart" and I wanted to win every next minute if possible. Of course it was not possible. Otherwise I would not be writing on a forum at this time :))
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Thank you MrWilderton. It does not exist such place for now. Many other users asked for that but I did not manage to do something like this. Anyway, I may answer here to any question related to features and/or strategies. Finally, the database is updated every night so every morning after drink your coffee and update the software all are up to date. May be some small issues in the first days but I hope this will be stable. On the other hand, I had some very interesting ....discussions, so I would like to remind what IS NOT my project about. As I stated on my site: 1. If you need a prediction software 2. If you need a machine to think and choose bets for you 3. If you need some things to blame for your betting failures 4. If you think that only terrible bad luck stopped you until now then my software is not for you. Look for anything else. There are a lot of good software on the INTERNET - just install them, few clicks and you will be rich. My software is for those that understood that betting means knowledge and a lot of hard work.