Darran

Well done with picking the winner at 16/1 and the second

The original link I put up for the charity doesn’t work anymore so here is one where you can donate direct to the charity https://fundraising.smallsteps.org.uk/donation/donate

55 minutes after the Cheltenham race we have the Fakenham hunter chase and it looks a really interesting contest. Knight In Dubai actually went to a couple of Cheltenham Festivals when he beat one home in Samcro's Ballymore win and the year after he was 13th in the Coral Cup. He's not won under rules since December 2019 although he's not had that many goes since then and he was going close off 130 last season. He's gone to James Owen's wife's yard and he has won both starts in points at Horseheath this year. His form under rules was over shorted than 3m, but Horseheath is a fair test so he ought to see it out round here. He had his stablemate Grand Roi in behind him in the first win which gives us a bit of basis for the form, but as he proved again on Monday, he's a hard horse to win with. He won easier in the 2nd start, but this should be a tougher test. He does get weight from every other horse in the race and he can win, but I think I am happy enough to look elsewhere.   I am a big fan of Rebel Dawn Rising and he has been a bit unlucky not to add to his Leicester hunter chase win a couple of years ago. He made his seasonal reappearance in this race last year and whilst I'm not sure he would have beaten Bennys King, he never got a chance to because he was brought down at the 7th. On Easter Monday he was set to beat Janika and Firak over course and distance until he ran around on the run to the last fence and unseated Dale as he took off. I thought he ran with great credit behind Premier Magic at Cheltenham as he gave it a good go, but he just didn't stay and finishing within 17L of him over 3m2f is a top effort. Clearly 3m round here is fine and he has won first up before. He also wont mind what the weather does as it could rain before the race gets underway.   I'm very surprised Firak is out again after Leicester. He ran way below par here on Easter Monday and it looked like he just didn't handle the track. He more than likely wouldn't have won last week, but the hampering at 3 out meant he didn't get the chance to put the winner under pressure. My issue is though is he never looked like he was going all that well and that's the main reason I'm surprised he's out again. So whilst I think he has the ability to win the fact he didn't seem to handle the track, has around 20L to turn around with Rebel Dawn Rising, and he looked to have a hard race last week means I am happy to take him on.   Ed Turner's horses tend to always come on for a run or two so the fact Janika pulled up behind Fier Jaguen at Garthorpe on his return last month is no real surprise. The problem is he was 12L behind Rebel Dawn Rising at Garthorpe last March and would have been behind him again if he had jumped the last on Easter Monday. He wouldn't be for me.   Dan Skelton has links to 3 horses in this race as he also used to train Shentri. He had been off the track since July 2022 before make his pointing debut at Higham last month. Higham wouldn't be that dissimilar to Fakenham so the track should suit. Whilst he didn't get as high as Knight In Dubai in the ratings, he is only 7 so could be open to improvement and crucially he was very impressive when winning at Higham. He bolted up by 20L there and the time was the quickest of the day. He was quicker than The Big Lense on the same card despite carrying 7lbs more so that makes it a really good effort for me. I guess we have to consider the bounce factor, but more of a concern might be if it rains as has pretty much only run on good ground.    Given Chief Black Robe couldn't win a maiden point last season it was quite something that a move to Fergal O'Brien's saw him win 4 handicaps on the bounce. He started off of a mark of 88 and his 4th win was off 115. He then went to the Summer Plate at Market Rasen and finished 4th before getting beat at 2/5 at Newton Abott in September. Back with his owner/rider now  he returned at Ampton last month and was 3rd of 4 beaten 13L. I don't think you can completely rule him out given the 4th at Market Rasen, but you do get the feeling that maybe Fergal had a fair bit to with the improvement.    All of them have some sort of chance, but I am happy enough to take back Rebel Dawn Rising and Shentri against the field. I think Rebel Dawn Rising is the best horse in the race and as much as he has to give race fitness away, the fact he's won 1st up before and wasn't unfancied to beat Bennys King in this last year, I think that won't be an issue. I want Shentri onside as well because I think that win at Higham is the best recent form of the season and if it isn't too soft for him he ought to go close.   Rebel Dawn Rising 2pts @ 7/4 with Bet365 (take up to 11/8) Shentri 1pt @ 9/1 with Bet365 (take up to 5/1)

Here is my full in-depth preview for the race on Friday. A smaller field than usual this year, but class wise I think it is up to scratch and it promises to be a good renewal. As ever hopefully I can point you in the way of the winner, but the main reason for the preview is that it provides you with the most in-depth preview on the race you will find and it provides you with the information to also come up with your own mind.    Billaway - You can't knock his record in the race having finished 2nd, 2nd, 1st and then fell at the 10th in the last 4 renewals. Given the rest of his form last season you have to think he would have been involved in the finish if he had got round. His jumping hasn't always been great though and that did finally tell last year and he also unseated at Punchestown. He bounced back from that to beat Vaucelet to win a decent pot at Downpatrick in May. He made his seasonal return later than usual this season and he has a terrible first time out record so I wasn't surprised to see him well behind in 3rd as they turned for home at Naas, but then as Its On The Line idled he railed strongly and it was no surprise that he traded very short in running as he looked like he was going to win. In the end Its On The Line picked up when he got to him and won by a head, but it was still a very good run. I just wonder that given he was having his prep later than usual if he was further forward than he usually is 1st up. I'm not sure he can win it again, but given his record in the race and the fact he ran so well last time suggests to me that if he gets round he isn't going to be far away at the finish.   D'Jango - Was one of the Judith Wilson owned horses that David Pipe trained who used to run what seemed like every week and he was rated just 100 over fences when picked up by new connections. Not surprisingly he went off a massive price for the opening hunter chase of the season, but he massively outran his odds when finishing a length 2nd to the very promising mare Regatta De Blanc. That horse has franked the form since as has the 3rd Bennys King and Shantou Flyer was behind in 5th. He then stayed on very strongly at Warwick to overhaul Tea Clipper after the last and they had pulled well clear of the others. He was possibly a little disappointing in the Walrus at Haydock last time when a fairly well beaten 4th behind Spyglass Hill, but it was really testing ground that day and I'm not sure he was totally in love with it. The handicapper has put him up 29lbs since he went hunter chasing and I think that is fair enough given the form he has shown. We know he stays well and the ground is clearly going to better than Haydock so whilst I doubt he will win, I think he can run well and finish in the top half.   Ferns Lock - There were 3 horses I saw last season who really impressed me and Ferns Lock was one of them. His wins at Fairyhouse where he beat Its On The Line and at Thurles where he beat Billaway were hugely impressive. Lots wanted him to go to Cheltenham on the back of that, but I thought they were right to give him more time as he needed more experience. He went to Gowran Park instead and although he won hard held his jumping wasn't quite as good as it had been and backed up my thinking that he needed another year. He was then surprisingly beaten at Fairyhouse when Annamix picked up the pieces after Ferns Lock and Billaway got racing from a fair way out. That run though did make me think that maybe his stamina wasn't quite what he needed to be to win this race. This season he returned at Dromahane and beat a useful field with ease. He then went to Down Royal and looked like he was going to win again having seen off the challenge of Ramillies, but he had no response to the fast finishing Its On The Line who beat him by 0.5L. That performance really set off the alarm bells about his stamina for 3m2f around Cheltenham. He bounced back to winning ways by beating a stablemate of Its On The Line with ease at Thurles. What was interesting though was that Ruby Walsh said after the race that he looks an Aintree horse not a Cheltenham horse and I completely agree with him. Even his trainer has come out and said he thinks he might be more of an Aintree horse. If he goes to Aintree I think he will be very hard to beat. On the whole he jumps well and he enjoys being out in front, but although he's not overly keen he is free running and I think at this stage of his career he just does a bit too much to win this race. The one thing in his favour on that front though is the smaller field than usual as he might get away with a bit of a freebie up front which wouldn't have been the case with a full field. My thinking is there is a strong chance of him being in front at the last, but that he will having nothing for the run-in and at least something will outstay him. The other thing to note is he is unlikely to get left alone on the front end and as we saw at Fairyhouse that isn't going to help him either. I suspect he is the best horse in the race ability wise and that he's better than a hunter chaser and if he did happen to stay he wins, but I don't think he will stay so am happy to take him on.   From The Heart - Has shown form that suggests he could win a hunter chase at some point, but nothing in his form suggests he can get anywhere near to winning this and his massive price reflects his chances.   Its On The Line - The horse I have thought would be the winner since he beat Ferns Lock at Down Royal on Boxing Day. Was a fast finishing 2nd to Premier Magic last year when having the cheekpieces on for the first time. Jumping 2 out you wouldn't have given him any hope of reaching the frame as he was looking pretty laboured and then all of a sudden late on his flying home and had clearly got going too late. He then fell at Aintree, but pretty much made all to win at Punchestown. He did race lazily that night, but what I liked was he kept finding for Derek and whilst Vaucelet had travelled better, he just couldn't get past him and a mistake at the last made no difference to the result for me. It was a bit of a surprise to see him run again in another point a couple of weeks later and finished 2nd to Rocky's Howya and both horses had long succesful seasons. This season he's 3/3. He won a point in November and then went to Down Royal when outstaying Its On The Line. Over 2f further I just don't see how the form can be reversed. We know Its On The Line is all about stamina and even if he gets outpaced we know he's highly likely to be finishing best of all. Onto that dramatic race at Naas where he first of all went toe to toe with Ramillies and once he saw him off at the last he then started to idle and Billaway came from nowhere looking like he was going to go straight pass him, but as soon as he got to Its On The Line he picked up again and he was a head in front at the line. For a horse to do that having gone hard in testing ground just shows he clearly had plenty left and that when it matters he will fight. I doubt he is going to be left in front here, but to be fair he has also shown he is hard to pass once he gets in front anyway even if he is. The trainer has said he will be putting the cheekpieces back on so that should bring about a little bit more as well. It could be argued that why should he beat Premier Magic based on last year's run, but I think he's improved and I doubt Premier Magic has given he is now 11. Clearly 7yos don't have a good recent record in the race, but he has a different profile to most good ones who have tired as we know he will stay and that he has the class to win. I think a fair few younger horses who have tried just haven't stayed which isn't a concern with him. The softer the ground the better as it will test turn it into more of a test, but it was decent ground when he won at Punchestown so it isn't crucial. JP has no doubt paid a few quid for him last week and I suspect he might well have next years Grand National in mind as much as this contest. He is the one they all have to beat.   Premier Magic - I was put off his chances for this race last year because of the way he ran in the race in 2022. He looked like he hated every second of it before pulling up and knowing that Brad wanted to run Highway Jewel instead it put me off backing him despite thinking he had the ability to run well. In 2022 he was on the inside, so Brad decided to ride him on the outside and it worked a treat. He was always going well and took the lead at 2 out before always holding the fast finishing Its On The Line. Somehow he recorded a higher RPR when winning on hunter chase night on his next start, but he beat a non stayer in Rebel Dawn Rising and the rest of the field were a poor bunch in the context of this race. He definitely achieved more winning this. This season he has won both his starts at Sheriff Hutton and Brocklesby Park. The issue I have though is neither of those efforts told us anything apart from he has four legs still. The 2nd and 3rd at Sheriff Hutton have both been stuffed in hunter chases recently and he was 1/10 at Brocklesby. There was certainly more depth to his wins prior to last year's race. I'm not saying for a second that he couldn't be another duel winner, but you are guessing how much ability he still retains because the two runs have told us nothing. He's now 11 and my thinking is that Its On The Line has improved so he will have to have done as well. He seems about the right price at this stage. The cheekpieces which he wore for both Cheltenham wins last season and have been missing this season go back on here.   Quintin's Man - We know the course and distance will hold no fears for him as he bolted up to win the Intermediate Final on hunter chase night last year. You can pick holes in that form, but it was still an impressive performance. He then went to Stratford for the John Corbet Cup and he hated the experience and never really looked happy at any stage. He started off the season with a couple of 3rds which didn't look overly hopeful, although the second of them at Chipley Park has worked out well. He certainly stepped up on those efforts at Wincanton when beaten a useful field in taking style. Lalor was 2nd there and Paul Nicholls tried to get him qualified for this, but he was only 4th at Taunton. I wouldn't have that effort knock the form because the race would have come soon enough and it was a hot race. Quintin's Man went to Haydock for the Walrus and whilst the trip was on the short side for him my thinking was the bottomless ground would make it such a test of stamina that it would be ideal for him. He did get himself outpaced though in the home straight, but I still thought he was going to win jumping the last, but I just wonder if the effort of getting to the 1st and 2nd paid on the run-in and he ended up in 3rd. I think he needs soft ground to be seen at his best and we know he stays well so he wouldn't be the worst outsider in the race.   Ramillies - Surprised that he is even running in this given the way he ran at Gowran Park on Saturday. He was legless after the last behind Its On The Line before that and I struggle to see him staying.   Samcro - Good old Samcro finally gets his chance to run in this race as he didn't qualify for hunter chases in the UK last year. A duel Festival winner and no doubt the horse that people will get excited about because on his old form he's easily the best horse in the race. He got up to a mark of 160 over fences and 163 over hurdles and there will be those out there who will presume that means he should win this. If he was still capable of running to anywhere near those marks though he wouldn't be hunter chasing. One day no doubt a horse with his sort of profile will win the race again, but horses like him just don't win this race anymore. If he had been able to run in teh race last year I'd have given him more of a chance as he won 3 points by 30L twice and 32L the other time. This season he looks to have gone backwards as he won by just 2.5L first time up, albeit snugly, and then last month he was only 3rd at Belharbour behind Lifetime Ambition. I thought he looked quite laboured in the finish that day and whilst the winner is apparently going to be aimed at Aintree it didn't look a performance of a horse who was going to be good enough to win this. My other concern is how he will fare going back under rules because he had really lost his way and he always had his quirks anyway. 9 of the last 10 winners of this have had to run to an RPR of 141 to win and I have big doubts about him running to that level anymore. He's a single figure price, but he should be around 25/1 for me. Also as much as he did win twice at The Festival he was also pulled up in the Ryanair the last time he ran here.   Shantou Flyer - Has an incredible record at Cheltenham having won twice, finished 2nd 5 times and 3rd 3 times in his 13 starts round here. His record at the Festival reads fell in the National Hunt Chase in 2016, 2nd beaten a neck in the Ultima of 2018, 2nd in the 2019 Foxhunter, 3rd in the 2020 Foxhunter, 3rd in the 2021 Kim Muir and 3rd in last years race 3L behind Premier Magic. That is some record and it would be no surprise if he was to run a huge race yet again. He was in really good form last season as he won hunter chases in really good style at Exeter and Stratford and the 2nd in the 4m race on hunter chase night was good because he just doesn't stay that far (had been 5th the year before in that contest). This season he won on his return at Larkhill and then was 5th in the opening hunter chase of the season behind Regatta De Blanc when he tried to keep up with Bennys King at the head of the race and they both went too quick. That trip would have been short enough in a race of that quality as well. He had his prep at Charlton Horethorne on Sunday where he actually won 2 races because he walked over in the hunt race before winning the Mixed Open beating Singapore Saga by a comfortable 3L. It would be some effort for him to finally win at the Cheltenham Festival at the age of 14, but some bookies will be offering extra places (probably down to 8 at least) and he would look a fair e/w bet taking the lower odds and extra places. To be honest a top 4 finish at normal odds might well show a return given his record at the meeting and Cheltenham overall.   Time Leader -  Joe O'Shea has had a knack of improving horses by stones over the years and this was another one. When he started hunter chasing he was rated 90 and he is now up to 128 and even that mark might under estimate him. He won twice at Leicester and Stratford last year, before surprisingly running just 6 days later in the mud at Carlisle over 3m which looked very unsuitable for him and so it proved as he pulled up. He then ran a massive race in the Aintree Foxhunters when staying on well to finish 5th 6.25L behind Famous Clermont. He made a bad mistake at the Chair that day and without it he would have gone closer. After that he won at Kelso and at Cartmel where he beat Gaboriot by 12L over just over 3m1f. That gives a hint that he might be capable of staying the trip here and whilst the 2nd as improved since it still gives a bit of value to the form given he has won 3 times this season. You will notice that Hannah Roach now trains him, but don't be fooled as Joe is very much still involved and he made a winning return before getting stuck in the mud at Chaddesley Corbett in December. It was no surprise he bounced back at Hereford in January and he won with loads in hand. The better the ground the better his chance because he doesn't seem to handle it testing and it wouldn't help his stamina either. If it is no worse than good to soft though it wouldn't surprise me if he went close, but the weather suggests that is unlikely to happen now.   Sine Nomine - I have been slow to warm to her because you have always been able to pick all sorts of holes in her rules form, but after her win at Wetherby I think it is just a case of her being a very good horse. She made her rules debut in the Intermediate Final on hunter chase night a couple of years ago and she jumped terribly although was still able to finish 3rd albeit a well beaten one. Last season she had 3 point starts before going to Stratford where she was foot perfect and beat Kaproyale easily. Now I wondered if she was the only one who liked the ground (the favourite didn't) and Kaproyale is better over shorter so I my thinking was she was the only one to have conditions to suit. She then went back to hunter chase night here and ran in the mares race and was beaten by Miss Seagreen. She travelled really well and looked the winner for a long way, but was just over hauled late on. She then went to Stratford for the John Corbet Cup which she won again after traveling strongly. The problem is the form isn't very strong with the 2nd having been stuffed in handicaps off marks in the low 100s since. First time out this season she was beaten at Alnwick in the mud by Wagner who whilst he has been a winning machine this season wouldn't be a fancy in this so again I wasn't overly strong on her going into Wetherby. On the face of it you could say she has beaten a non stayer in Bennys King, a horse who has needed his first two runs in Windsor Avenue and the favourite Fairly Famous hated the ground so again you can pick holes in the form. However she's travelled all over Bennys King for most of the home straight and therefore if the race had been over say 2m6f Sine Nomine still would have won. Given Bennys King form this season has been exceptional I think this effort is probably the best run from a British trained horse this season. I think she is at her best with a bit of cut in the ground and she is such a strong traveller whatever the conditions. There are two minor worries I have though. First of all her two worse runs under rules have both come at Cheltenham but the first was down to inexperience and I think she will be better off in a bigger field and truly run race which she didn't get last May. Secondly there has to be a small concern about her seeing out the trip given that defeat her last year. I know she won over further at Stratford, but it was a slowly run race and not a test at all. Secret Investor was 22 seconds quicker whilst carrying 7lbs more which shows how slow it was run. Maybe she might be one of these younger horses how doesn't quite see it out, but difference is she is a double figure price and she should be shorter.   Verdict - So we are going to have the smallest field for some time and I think the real reason for that is the lack of total no hopers in the race. As much as I am happy to take certain horses on, you can only say that From The Heart doesn't have any chance of winning the race. If you haven't backed Its On The Line yet I do think there is some juice in the price. He's the most likely winner for me and given the weather forecast it does look like its going to be on the softer side which isn't going to help Ferns Lock stamina. What will help him though is the smaller field as he might just get an easier time on the front end than I originally thought before the 6 day decs.    Sine Nomine is clear 2nd choice for me and I am happy to back her now. If there are only 13 runners then we might not see many, if any, bookies go 4 places and I think her price might come in. I think she has the best British form this season coming into the race as that Wetherby run was a top class effort. Those two slight concerns I mention in her profile are more than factored into the price for me and I think she should be a single figure price.   If Premier Magic is in the same form as last year then clearly he is going to go close, but it is impossible to know if he is or not based on his two point runs this season and he's the right sort of price at the moment. Billaway's record in the race means he must be respected and again looks the right sort of price. I couldn't put anyone off backing either though if you fancy them.   The final bet to be added is Quintin's Man. Conditions are certainly going to be in his favour and he is an out and out stayer so I certainly want him on side. If it had dried out more then I would have put Time Leader up, but conditions don't look like being ideal for him and that will put an extra test on his stamina. Bet365 have a 6 place market and couldn't put anyone off throwing a few quid at Shantou Flyer in that market given his record at Cheltenham.   Bets given on Monday Its On The Line 3pts @ 5/2 with Bet365 (take up to 15/8) Sine Nomine 1pt e/w @ 16/1 with Bet365, William Hill and Betfred (take up to 10/1)   Bet added on Thursday Quintin's Man 0.5pts e/w @ 25/1 with Bet365, BetVictor and Betfred (take up to 16/1)

55 minutes after the Cheltenham race we have the Fakenham hunter chase and it looks a really interesting contest. Knight In Dubai actually went to a couple of Cheltenham Festivals when he beat one home in Samcro's Ballymore win and the year after he was 13th in the Coral Cup. He's not won under rules since December 2019 although he's not had that many goes since then and he was going close off 130 last season. He's gone to James Owen's wife's yard and he has won both starts in points at Horseheath this year. His form under rules was over shorted than 3m, but Horseheath is a fair test so he ought to see it out round here. He had his stablemate Grand Roi in behind him in the first win which gives us a bit of basis for the form, but as he proved again on Monday, he's a hard horse to win with. He won easier in the 2nd start, but this should be a tougher test. He does get weight from every other horse in the race and he can win, but I think I am happy enough to look elsewhere.   I am a big fan of Rebel Dawn Rising and he has been a bit unlucky not to add to his Leicester hunter chase win a couple of years ago. He made his seasonal reappearance in this race last year and whilst I'm not sure he would have beaten Bennys King, he never got a chance to because he was brought down at the 7th. On Easter Monday he was set to beat Janika and Firak over course and distance until he ran around on the run to the last fence and unseated Dale as he took off. I thought he ran with great credit behind Premier Magic at Cheltenham as he gave it a good go, but he just didn't stay and finishing within 17L of him over 3m2f is a top effort. Clearly 3m round here is fine and he has won first up before. He also wont mind what the weather does as it could rain before the race gets underway.   I'm very surprised Firak is out again after Leicester. He ran way below par here on Easter Monday and it looked like he just didn't handle the track. He more than likely wouldn't have won last week, but the hampering at 3 out meant he didn't get the chance to put the winner under pressure. My issue is though is he never looked like he was going all that well and that's the main reason I'm surprised he's out again. So whilst I think he has the ability to win the fact he didn't seem to handle the track, has around 20L to turn around with Rebel Dawn Rising, and he looked to have a hard race last week means I am happy to take him on.   Ed Turner's horses tend to always come on for a run or two so the fact Janika pulled up behind Fier Jaguen at Garthorpe on his return last month is no real surprise. The problem is he was 12L behind Rebel Dawn Rising at Garthorpe last March and would have been behind him again if he had jumped the last on Easter Monday. He wouldn't be for me.   Dan Skelton has links to 3 horses in this race as he also used to train Shentri. He had been off the track since July 2022 before make his pointing debut at Higham last month. Higham wouldn't be that dissimilar to Fakenham so the track should suit. Whilst he didn't get as high as Knight In Dubai in the ratings, he is only 7 so could be open to improvement and crucially he was very impressive when winning at Higham. He bolted up by 20L there and the time was the quickest of the day. He was quicker than The Big Lense on the same card despite carrying 7lbs more so that makes it a really good effort for me. I guess we have to consider the bounce factor, but more of a concern might be if it rains as has pretty much only run on good ground.    Given Chief Black Robe couldn't win a maiden point last season it was quite something that a move to Fergal O'Brien's saw him win 4 handicaps on the bounce. He started off of a mark of 88 and his 4th win was off 115. He then went to the Summer Plate at Market Rasen and finished 4th before getting beat at 2/5 at Newton Abott in September. Back with his owner/rider now  he returned at Ampton last month and was 3rd of 4 beaten 13L. I don't think you can completely rule him out given the 4th at Market Rasen, but you do get the feeling that maybe Fergal had a fair bit to with the improvement.    All of them have some sort of chance, but I am happy enough to take back Rebel Dawn Rising and Shentri against the field. I think Rebel Dawn Rising is the best horse in the race and as much as he has to give race fitness away, the fact he's won 1st up before and wasn't unfancied to beat Bennys King in this last year, I think that won't be an issue. I want Shentri onside as well because I think that win at Higham is the best recent form of the season and if it isn't too soft for him he ought to go close.   Rebel Dawn Rising 2pts @ 7/4 with Bet365 (take up to 11/8) Shentri 1pt @ 9/1 with Bet365 (take up to 5/1)

Another good day, profit now stands at £ 392.91, thanks again mostly to a £20 BETMGM free bet on Langer Dan at 7/1 (tipped by @The Brigadier)

Time to catch up with everything that has happened in the last month or so and plenty has happened regarding Cheltenham.   The obvious place to start is the hunter chase at Down Royal on Boxing Day where Its On The Line just wore down Ferns Lock on the run-in and not surprisingly has disposed him at the head of the market for The Festival. After 3 out the winner got outpaced and looked like he was going to finish 3rd at best as Ferns Lock and Ramillies went on, but the latter got very tired and the former just wasn't able to repel the winners challenge late on. Given Ferns Lock is quite a free going sort I struggle to see how he is going to stay 3m2f at Cheltenham at this stage of his career. We know from Its On The Line's run in the race last year that he stays the trip very well and I just don't see how Ferns Lock could reverse the form in March. If he were mine I'd be tempted to skip Cheltenham and go to Aintree which looks tailormade for him. I know his owner has backed him for Cheltenham though so I suspect he will go there if he is fit and well. Given the way Ramillies faded into 4th he doesn't appeal as a possible contender at this stage, although he did win again back pointing on Sunday. Vaucelet, who was a further 18L back in 5th, looks, as his pointing form suggested, to have totally lost his form.   The other hunter chase in Ireland over Christmas was the maiden one at Limerick and Its On The Line's stablemate, Romeo Magico landed that. The form has been boosted since as the 2nd has won since. His trainer likes him and thinks he got away with the ground and will be a nice horse in the spring. He hasn't qualified for this yet and surely Its On The Line will be the stables leading contender if he does decide to run Romeo Magico as well.   Famous Clermont is currently 3rd in the betting and I only mention him here because of that as connections have only talked about him going to Aintree and I still view him as a very unlikely runner. He made his return at Larkhill on New Years Eve and having cruised into contention he then made a mistake at 2 out and tired very quickly. Will allowed him to cost home after that and he was a 33L 3rd in the end. His trainer has said since that whilst he thought he had left a bit to work on he clearly had left more than he thought. I'm sure he will improve as the season goes on. The winner of that race was a horse called Grace A Vous Enki who used to be trained by Paul Nicholls and is only rated 113 over fences at the moment. Nicky Sheppard though has clearly got him in much better form than that though and this was his 2nd easy win of the season after he won at Larkhill earlier in December as well. I think his performances can be upgraded because he has jumped left on both wins which suggests he wants to be going left handed. He's not in the betting for Cheltenham at the moment, but he should be.   Onto last year's winner Premier Magic and after Chaddesley Corbett was called off over Christmas he headed to Sheriff Hutton on Sunday instead. He went off at 2/7 and won just as easily as the odds suggested. It was a solid test though as the race took 7m23s to run and it should bring him on nicely. He is set for one more prep race prior to his attempt at keeping hold of his crown.    The first hunter chase of the season in the UK was at Taunton last Monday and it saw Regatta De Blanc win on rules debut after 3 pointing wins all at Larkhill. I thought she showed plenty of inexperience in the jumping stakes and also through greenness, but she beat a very good field. Some people might want to crab the form based on the 2nd, but I think he showed improved form and I think the form will stand up as the season goes on. However I wouldn't go near the Cheltenham Festival with her this season as whilst next year she might well be capable of being up to running in it, I don't think she has the experience at the moment. She also isn't qualified yet and Will didn't really seem to mention that Cheltenham was the target. If she was mine I would be aiming her at the mares race on hunter chase night at Cheltenham to give her cause experience and the 14/1 makes no appeal at all at this stage.   Another horse who has just had 4 starts is the Irish 7yo Hitak. He was stuffed on debut on April 2022, but he looks a different horse on his 3 runs last month and on Sunday. He bolted up in his maiden at Tattersalls Farm and then at the end of the month he went straight into open company and he won. It wasn't like he beat rubbish though because Winged Leader was the horse who finished 2nd. On Sunday he was an easy winner of another open to qualify for Cheltenham. I'd like to see him under rules first (entered at Thurles on Sunday) and again although he is clearly very useful it is some ask for a horse with such little experience to win a race like this.   Fakir D'alene is in the betting at 10/1, but he ran in the Paddy Power Chase over Christmas where he brought down at the 5th. As much as he was 2nd in a point back in October his 2 runs in big handicaps since suggest he is going for big handicaps rather than this.   Sine Nomine has been talked of as being a possible Cheltenham contender, but she was beaten by Wagner on seasonal return at Alnwick. It was testing ground and he had match fitness on his side, but I've never really felt she was Cheltenham class and this performance backs that up.   Tea Clipper is priced up at 16/1 and he was declared at Ludlow on Thursday and is entered at Warwick on Monday. That would suggest they want to get him qualified for this. Simply The Betts was going to be David Maxwell's runner, but sadly he passed away.   On Sunday at Thurles as I mentioned Hitak is entered along side Billaway, Ferns Lock, Hardline and Romeo Magic. Could well be a race which tells us more.   I'm certainly not suggesting a bet at this stage, but if you asked me now which horse I think will win this year's race I would have to say Its On The Line. 

Time to start up the thread again for another season. Some of the leading contenders have already been out over in Ireland although those trained over here have yet to run. A few bookies have priced up the race and to start I will go through those at the head of the market.   Ferns Lock - Many people felt he should have gone to Cheltenham last year, but young horses have got a very poor recent record in the race and the fact he was beaten at 4/11 at Fairyhouse over Easter did suggest to me connections made the right decision. He returned last month at Dromahane where he was reportedly 80% fit and drifted in the betting although still going off favourite in a 13 runner field. He put in a very impressive performance though and showed the class he showed plenty of times last season. The 2nd Dinny Lacey won on his next start to give the form a boost as well. At this stage I agree with his position at the head of the market because he was one of the top 3 horses I saw last year. My guess is we will see him at Down Royal on Boxing Day next.    Its On The Line - Flew up the run-in last season to finish 2nd to Premier Magic and after falling at Aintree went on to win at Punchestown beating Vaucelet by a length. He did run again after that when being beaten in a point by Cheltenham 4th Rocky's Howya. He ran the week before Ferns Lock at Damma House and beat the ex Paul Nicholls trained Jeremy Pass by 1/2L. It was a solid start and it wouldn't be a shock if he went to Down Royal either. He was beaten 12L by Ferns Lock at Fairyhouse last November, but he was in better form later in the season. He is the same age as Ferns Lock and there ought to be more to come. Easy to see why he is 2nd in the betting.   Ramillies - Was with Willie Mullins, but is now with David Christie. He pulled up in the Brown Advisory last season and was 6th in the Albert Bartlett the year before. He was only 3rd in his first two points, but then won twice in back to back weeks last month beating Hardline by 4L and then won by 44L. The trainer mentioned going to Down Royal with him which would give us a better idea as to where he stands with the likes of Ferns Lock, but I would be with his stablemate at this stage.   Samcro - Wasn't able to run in British hunter chases last season, but can now and after winning at Tinahely last month Gordon Elliott said he would have one further run before going to Cheltenham. He ran in 3 points last year and was very impressive in wining all 3. The win last month was by a much shorter margin, but he did it snugly. He had lost his way big time under rules and was rated 146 over fences when last seen. I would like to see that next run in a hunter chase because I want to gain a better idea as to if he is a reformed horse or if he just enjoyed going pointing and as soon as he goes back under rules he goes back to his former ways. What I will say is that he would have to be in much better form to be a winning chance in this than he was when last seen under rules and horses with his profile don't seem to win the race anymore.   Famous Clermont - Failed to get up the hill last season and then duly made amends at Aintree. He's not run yet, but connections are of the thinking he doesn't stay and so will skip Cheltenham. I must admit I would be tempted to give him another go especially on decent ground, because horses who have looked like non-stayers in the past have gone on to win this race. On The Fringe is the one that really springs to mind regarding that and I think Famous Clermont might be capable of doing something similar if allowed to. Is set to start off his season at Larkhill on New Years Eve.   Vaucelet - Was sent off favourite for this last year and never threatened to get involved although in the end he was only beaten 10L in 7th so it wasn't a dreadful run. After that he was 2nd at Punchestown, Downpatrick and Stratford and he has become a little bit frustrating. I know he could be in for a long season, but the fact he has only finished 3rd in his two runs so far this season doesn't exactly bode well. Based on that you could add a 0 to his 10/1 quote for this and even if he does get back into form he is behind Ferns Lock in the stables pecking order.   Premier Magic - Last year's winner won't be going off at 66/1 this time around that's for certain! Yet to be seen and I don't know of the plan with him, but he did return at the Chaddesley Corbett meeting over Christmas last season so would be no shock if that was his seasonal return this time around.   Rocky's Howya - He was a very progressive horse in Irish points last season and it was no surprise to see him run a blinder in this back in March. In the end he finished 4th after leading and then getting hampered by a loose horse on the run-in. He won 3 more points after that including beating Its On The Line. He is yet to reappear this season, but hopefully all is well as he looks an exciting horse for this season.   Fakir D'Alene - Was 2nd in a point to start the season off, but he then finished 3rd in the Troytown and his trainer said he would be running in the big handicap chases this season so doesn't look a likely runner.   Secret Investor - Fell in this last year early on, but did go on to win the big one at Stratford in good style. His trainer did say in his stable tour though that he thinks the horse doesn't like Cheltenham and won't be aimed at the race.   The Bosses Oscar - Has run in 4 points already, but the only victory came first time out at the start of October. Was beaten 13L into 4th by Ferns Lock and whilst he has qualified he wouldn't look to be good enough at this stage.   Time Leader - The only horse worth mentioning from Britain that has run this season. Was a massive improver for Joe O'Shea last season and whilst his name isn't down as the trainer anymore, you can be guaranteed he is still heavily involved. Ran a huge race at Aintree and it seems that rather than Cheltenham is the target. Was hugely impressive first up this season, but then pulled up in very testing ground at Chaddesley Corbett. He's better than that, but my feeling is 3m2f round Cheltenham would stretch his stamina.

Here is my full in-depth preview for the race on Friday. A smaller field than usual this year, but class wise I think it is up to scratch and it promises to be a good renewal. As ever hopefully I can point you in the way of the winner, but the main reason for the preview is that it provides you with the most in-depth preview on the race you will find and it provides you with the information to also come up with your own mind.    Billaway - You can't knock his record in the race having finished 2nd, 2nd, 1st and then fell at the 10th in the last 4 renewals. Given the rest of his form last season you have to think he would have been involved in the finish if he had got round. His jumping hasn't always been great though and that did finally tell last year and he also unseated at Punchestown. He bounced back from that to beat Vaucelet to win a decent pot at Downpatrick in May. He made his seasonal return later than usual this season and he has a terrible first time out record so I wasn't surprised to see him well behind in 3rd as they turned for home at Naas, but then as Its On The Line idled he railed strongly and it was no surprise that he traded very short in running as he looked like he was going to win. In the end Its On The Line picked up when he got to him and won by a head, but it was still a very good run. I just wonder that given he was having his prep later than usual if he was further forward than he usually is 1st up. I'm not sure he can win it again, but given his record in the race and the fact he ran so well last time suggests to me that if he gets round he isn't going to be far away at the finish.   D'Jango - Was one of the Judith Wilson owned horses that David Pipe trained who used to run what seemed like every week and he was rated just 100 over fences when picked up by new connections. Not surprisingly he went off a massive price for the opening hunter chase of the season, but he massively outran his odds when finishing a length 2nd to the very promising mare Regatta De Blanc. That horse has franked the form since as has the 3rd Bennys King and Shantou Flyer was behind in 5th. He then stayed on very strongly at Warwick to overhaul Tea Clipper after the last and they had pulled well clear of the others. He was possibly a little disappointing in the Walrus at Haydock last time when a fairly well beaten 4th behind Spyglass Hill, but it was really testing ground that day and I'm not sure he was totally in love with it. The handicapper has put him up 29lbs since he went hunter chasing and I think that is fair enough given the form he has shown. We know he stays well and the ground is clearly going to better than Haydock so whilst I doubt he will win, I think he can run well and finish in the top half.   Ferns Lock - There were 3 horses I saw last season who really impressed me and Ferns Lock was one of them. His wins at Fairyhouse where he beat Its On The Line and at Thurles where he beat Billaway were hugely impressive. Lots wanted him to go to Cheltenham on the back of that, but I thought they were right to give him more time as he needed more experience. He went to Gowran Park instead and although he won hard held his jumping wasn't quite as good as it had been and backed up my thinking that he needed another year. He was then surprisingly beaten at Fairyhouse when Annamix picked up the pieces after Ferns Lock and Billaway got racing from a fair way out. That run though did make me think that maybe his stamina wasn't quite what he needed to be to win this race. This season he returned at Dromahane and beat a useful field with ease. He then went to Down Royal and looked like he was going to win again having seen off the challenge of Ramillies, but he had no response to the fast finishing Its On The Line who beat him by 0.5L. That performance really set off the alarm bells about his stamina for 3m2f around Cheltenham. He bounced back to winning ways by beating a stablemate of Its On The Line with ease at Thurles. What was interesting though was that Ruby Walsh said after the race that he looks an Aintree horse not a Cheltenham horse and I completely agree with him. Even his trainer has come out and said he thinks he might be more of an Aintree horse. If he goes to Aintree I think he will be very hard to beat. On the whole he jumps well and he enjoys being out in front, but although he's not overly keen he is free running and I think at this stage of his career he just does a bit too much to win this race. The one thing in his favour on that front though is the smaller field than usual as he might get away with a bit of a freebie up front which wouldn't have been the case with a full field. My thinking is there is a strong chance of him being in front at the last, but that he will having nothing for the run-in and at least something will outstay him. The other thing to note is he is unlikely to get left alone on the front end and as we saw at Fairyhouse that isn't going to help him either. I suspect he is the best horse in the race ability wise and that he's better than a hunter chaser and if he did happen to stay he wins, but I don't think he will stay so am happy to take him on.   From The Heart - Has shown form that suggests he could win a hunter chase at some point, but nothing in his form suggests he can get anywhere near to winning this and his massive price reflects his chances.   Its On The Line - The horse I have thought would be the winner since he beat Ferns Lock at Down Royal on Boxing Day. Was a fast finishing 2nd to Premier Magic last year when having the cheekpieces on for the first time. Jumping 2 out you wouldn't have given him any hope of reaching the frame as he was looking pretty laboured and then all of a sudden late on his flying home and had clearly got going too late. He then fell at Aintree, but pretty much made all to win at Punchestown. He did race lazily that night, but what I liked was he kept finding for Derek and whilst Vaucelet had travelled better, he just couldn't get past him and a mistake at the last made no difference to the result for me. It was a bit of a surprise to see him run again in another point a couple of weeks later and finished 2nd to Rocky's Howya and both horses had long succesful seasons. This season he's 3/3. He won a point in November and then went to Down Royal when outstaying Its On The Line. Over 2f further I just don't see how the form can be reversed. We know Its On The Line is all about stamina and even if he gets outpaced we know he's highly likely to be finishing best of all. Onto that dramatic race at Naas where he first of all went toe to toe with Ramillies and once he saw him off at the last he then started to idle and Billaway came from nowhere looking like he was going to go straight pass him, but as soon as he got to Its On The Line he picked up again and he was a head in front at the line. For a horse to do that having gone hard in testing ground just shows he clearly had plenty left and that when it matters he will fight. I doubt he is going to be left in front here, but to be fair he has also shown he is hard to pass once he gets in front anyway even if he is. The trainer has said he will be putting the cheekpieces back on so that should bring about a little bit more as well. It could be argued that why should he beat Premier Magic based on last year's run, but I think he's improved and I doubt Premier Magic has given he is now 11. Clearly 7yos don't have a good recent record in the race, but he has a different profile to most good ones who have tired as we know he will stay and that he has the class to win. I think a fair few younger horses who have tried just haven't stayed which isn't a concern with him. The softer the ground the better as it will test turn it into more of a test, but it was decent ground when he won at Punchestown so it isn't crucial. JP has no doubt paid a few quid for him last week and I suspect he might well have next years Grand National in mind as much as this contest. He is the one they all have to beat.   Premier Magic - I was put off his chances for this race last year because of the way he ran in the race in 2022. He looked like he hated every second of it before pulling up and knowing that Brad wanted to run Highway Jewel instead it put me off backing him despite thinking he had the ability to run well. In 2022 he was on the inside, so Brad decided to ride him on the outside and it worked a treat. He was always going well and took the lead at 2 out before always holding the fast finishing Its On The Line. Somehow he recorded a higher RPR when winning on hunter chase night on his next start, but he beat a non stayer in Rebel Dawn Rising and the rest of the field were a poor bunch in the context of this race. He definitely achieved more winning this. This season he has won both his starts at Sheriff Hutton and Brocklesby Park. The issue I have though is neither of those efforts told us anything apart from he has four legs still. The 2nd and 3rd at Sheriff Hutton have both been stuffed in hunter chases recently and he was 1/10 at Brocklesby. There was certainly more depth to his wins prior to last year's race. I'm not saying for a second that he couldn't be another duel winner, but you are guessing how much ability he still retains because the two runs have told us nothing. He's now 11 and my thinking is that Its On The Line has improved so he will have to have done as well. He seems about the right price at this stage. The cheekpieces which he wore for both Cheltenham wins last season and have been missing this season go back on here.   Quintin's Man - We know the course and distance will hold no fears for him as he bolted up to win the Intermediate Final on hunter chase night last year. You can pick holes in that form, but it was still an impressive performance. He then went to Stratford for the John Corbet Cup and he hated the experience and never really looked happy at any stage. He started off the season with a couple of 3rds which didn't look overly hopeful, although the second of them at Chipley Park has worked out well. He certainly stepped up on those efforts at Wincanton when beaten a useful field in taking style. Lalor was 2nd there and Paul Nicholls tried to get him qualified for this, but he was only 4th at Taunton. I wouldn't have that effort knock the form because the race would have come soon enough and it was a hot race. Quintin's Man went to Haydock for the Walrus and whilst the trip was on the short side for him my thinking was the bottomless ground would make it such a test of stamina that it would be ideal for him. He did get himself outpaced though in the home straight, but I still thought he was going to win jumping the last, but I just wonder if the effort of getting to the 1st and 2nd paid on the run-in and he ended up in 3rd. I think he needs soft ground to be seen at his best and we know he stays well so he wouldn't be the worst outsider in the race.   Ramillies - Surprised that he is even running in this given the way he ran at Gowran Park on Saturday. He was legless after the last behind Its On The Line before that and I struggle to see him staying.   Samcro - Good old Samcro finally gets his chance to run in this race as he didn't qualify for hunter chases in the UK last year. A duel Festival winner and no doubt the horse that people will get excited about because on his old form he's easily the best horse in the race. He got up to a mark of 160 over fences and 163 over hurdles and there will be those out there who will presume that means he should win this. If he was still capable of running to anywhere near those marks though he wouldn't be hunter chasing. One day no doubt a horse with his sort of profile will win the race again, but horses like him just don't win this race anymore. If he had been able to run in teh race last year I'd have given him more of a chance as he won 3 points by 30L twice and 32L the other time. This season he looks to have gone backwards as he won by just 2.5L first time up, albeit snugly, and then last month he was only 3rd at Belharbour behind Lifetime Ambition. I thought he looked quite laboured in the finish that day and whilst the winner is apparently going to be aimed at Aintree it didn't look a performance of a horse who was going to be good enough to win this. My other concern is how he will fare going back under rules because he had really lost his way and he always had his quirks anyway. 9 of the last 10 winners of this have had to run to an RPR of 141 to win and I have big doubts about him running to that level anymore. He's a single figure price, but he should be around 25/1 for me. Also as much as he did win twice at The Festival he was also pulled up in the Ryanair the last time he ran here.   Shantou Flyer - Has an incredible record at Cheltenham having won twice, finished 2nd 5 times and 3rd 3 times in his 13 starts round here. His record at the Festival reads fell in the National Hunt Chase in 2016, 2nd beaten a neck in the Ultima of 2018, 2nd in the 2019 Foxhunter, 3rd in the 2020 Foxhunter, 3rd in the 2021 Kim Muir and 3rd in last years race 3L behind Premier Magic. That is some record and it would be no surprise if he was to run a huge race yet again. He was in really good form last season as he won hunter chases in really good style at Exeter and Stratford and the 2nd in the 4m race on hunter chase night was good because he just doesn't stay that far (had been 5th the year before in that contest). This season he won on his return at Larkhill and then was 5th in the opening hunter chase of the season behind Regatta De Blanc when he tried to keep up with Bennys King at the head of the race and they both went too quick. That trip would have been short enough in a race of that quality as well. He had his prep at Charlton Horethorne on Sunday where he actually won 2 races because he walked over in the hunt race before winning the Mixed Open beating Singapore Saga by a comfortable 3L. It would be some effort for him to finally win at the Cheltenham Festival at the age of 14, but some bookies will be offering extra places (probably down to 8 at least) and he would look a fair e/w bet taking the lower odds and extra places. To be honest a top 4 finish at normal odds might well show a return given his record at the meeting and Cheltenham overall.   Time Leader -  Joe O'Shea has had a knack of improving horses by stones over the years and this was another one. When he started hunter chasing he was rated 90 and he is now up to 128 and even that mark might under estimate him. He won twice at Leicester and Stratford last year, before surprisingly running just 6 days later in the mud at Carlisle over 3m which looked very unsuitable for him and so it proved as he pulled up. He then ran a massive race in the Aintree Foxhunters when staying on well to finish 5th 6.25L behind Famous Clermont. He made a bad mistake at the Chair that day and without it he would have gone closer. After that he won at Kelso and at Cartmel where he beat Gaboriot by 12L over just over 3m1f. That gives a hint that he might be capable of staying the trip here and whilst the 2nd as improved since it still gives a bit of value to the form given he has won 3 times this season. You will notice that Hannah Roach now trains him, but don't be fooled as Joe is very much still involved and he made a winning return before getting stuck in the mud at Chaddesley Corbett in December. It was no surprise he bounced back at Hereford in January and he won with loads in hand. The better the ground the better his chance because he doesn't seem to handle it testing and it wouldn't help his stamina either. If it is no worse than good to soft though it wouldn't surprise me if he went close, but the weather suggests that is unlikely to happen now.   Sine Nomine - I have been slow to warm to her because you have always been able to pick all sorts of holes in her rules form, but after her win at Wetherby I think it is just a case of her being a very good horse. She made her rules debut in the Intermediate Final on hunter chase night a couple of years ago and she jumped terribly although was still able to finish 3rd albeit a well beaten one. Last season she had 3 point starts before going to Stratford where she was foot perfect and beat Kaproyale easily. Now I wondered if she was the only one who liked the ground (the favourite didn't) and Kaproyale is better over shorter so I my thinking was she was the only one to have conditions to suit. She then went back to hunter chase night here and ran in the mares race and was beaten by Miss Seagreen. She travelled really well and looked the winner for a long way, but was just over hauled late on. She then went to Stratford for the John Corbet Cup which she won again after traveling strongly. The problem is the form isn't very strong with the 2nd having been stuffed in handicaps off marks in the low 100s since. First time out this season she was beaten at Alnwick in the mud by Wagner who whilst he has been a winning machine this season wouldn't be a fancy in this so again I wasn't overly strong on her going into Wetherby. On the face of it you could say she has beaten a non stayer in Bennys King, a horse who has needed his first two runs in Windsor Avenue and the favourite Fairly Famous hated the ground so again you can pick holes in the form. However she's travelled all over Bennys King for most of the home straight and therefore if the race had been over say 2m6f Sine Nomine still would have won. Given Bennys King form this season has been exceptional I think this effort is probably the best run from a British trained horse this season. I think she is at her best with a bit of cut in the ground and she is such a strong traveller whatever the conditions. There are two minor worries I have though. First of all her two worse runs under rules have both come at Cheltenham but the first was down to inexperience and I think she will be better off in a bigger field and truly run race which she didn't get last May. Secondly there has to be a small concern about her seeing out the trip given that defeat her last year. I know she won over further at Stratford, but it was a slowly run race and not a test at all. Secret Investor was 22 seconds quicker whilst carrying 7lbs more which shows how slow it was run. Maybe she might be one of these younger horses how doesn't quite see it out, but difference is she is a double figure price and she should be shorter.   Verdict - So we are going to have the smallest field for some time and I think the real reason for that is the lack of total no hopers in the race. As much as I am happy to take certain horses on, you can only say that From The Heart doesn't have any chance of winning the race. If you haven't backed Its On The Line yet I do think there is some juice in the price. He's the most likely winner for me and given the weather forecast it does look like its going to be on the softer side which isn't going to help Ferns Lock stamina. What will help him though is the smaller field as he might just get an easier time on the front end than I originally thought before the 6 day decs.    Sine Nomine is clear 2nd choice for me and I am happy to back her now. If there are only 13 runners then we might not see many, if any, bookies go 4 places and I think her price might come in. I think she has the best British form this season coming into the race as that Wetherby run was a top class effort. Those two slight concerns I mention in her profile are more than factored into the price for me and I think she should be a single figure price.   If Premier Magic is in the same form as last year then clearly he is going to go close, but it is impossible to know if he is or not based on his two point runs this season and he's the right sort of price at the moment. Billaway's record in the race means he must be respected and again looks the right sort of price. I couldn't put anyone off backing either though if you fancy them.   The final bet to be added is Quintin's Man. Conditions are certainly going to be in his favour and he is an out and out stayer so I certainly want him on side. If it had dried out more then I would have put Time Leader up, but conditions don't look like being ideal for him and that will put an extra test on his stamina. Bet365 have a 6 place market and couldn't put anyone off throwing a few quid at Shantou Flyer in that market given his record at Cheltenham.   Bets given on Monday Its On The Line 3pts @ 5/2 with Bet365 (take up to 15/8) Sine Nomine 1pt e/w @ 16/1 with Bet365, William Hill and Betfred (take up to 10/1)   Bet added on Thursday Quintin's Man 0.5pts e/w @ 25/1 with Bet365, BetVictor and Betfred (take up to 16/1)

As per last year I'll donate any profits I make at Cheltenham to the charity

Granted Cheltenham is obviously going to take most of the focus, but Tuesday also sees the start of the Australian jumps season at Warrnambool and I am back to cover the season for the 5th time. It has been 2 very profitable years and a couple of small losses. What started as something to focus on during Covid has turned into a real passion. All being well I should be taking in the all jumps card at Pakenham next month on my visit to Australia and I can't wait to see some of these horses in the flesh.
Right onto Warrnambool and we have 3 races an Open Hurdle, a Maiden Hurdle and an Open Steeple.
Race 1
There is actually a Cheltenham link in this first race as Crosshill featured in races against Galopin Des Champs and Gentlemansgame among others when trained by Jessie Harrington. He ran a couple of promising races at Pakenham and in the Grand Annual last year and whilst he did go on to win a maiden on the flat his other jumps starts weren't great. He hasn't run over hurdles in Australia, but his last run in Ireland was a win over hurdles at the Punchestown Festival so he's very capable. He's trialed well and ran a respectable race on the flat last month. 
He does have to give weight away to the very short price fav here though. Teofilo Star ran in 3 hurdles last year and after finishing 2nd at Pakenham he broke his maiden tag over course and distance in May. He impressed that day and he was even more impressive 3 weeks later at Sandown in a BM120 when winning by 15L. He went back on the flat after that and whilst he was well beaten in the Brisbane Cup he did when a BM100 at Flemington just before. He's not run in a race since, but won his last hurdles trial.
Serenade The Stars was behind Crosshill in the trial at Terang last week. He won the first maiden hurdle of the season last year and was then 2nd in his other 2 hurdle starts. He will be fit from the flat.
If Crosshill could run to his Irish form he would be over priced, but I don't think he's been quite up to that level and Teofilo Star looks a potential top notcher over hurdles this season and he ought to win as his odds suggest although 1/14 is very short. Its a race to watch.
Race 2
Only 2 of these have raced over hurdles and Buffalo Bill has had 20 goes without. That clearly makes things tricky especially as none of these have raced at that high a level on the flat. Tarn's Prince is the favourite and he trialed well against some useful horses last week at Terang. I am though going to take a chance on Elementry. Very unusual for top connections to send a horse over hurdles after just one flat run, which granted was awful. He won his 2nd hurdles trial here and beat Antequera into 2nd place. He seemed to enjoy jumping and his jockey seemed keen to try and teach him how to race. He's been very well backed which whilst annoying in one way does add to the confidence that he's going to go very well.
Elementry 1pt @ 7/2 with William Hill
Race 3
There can't be many horses that have run in the Arc and then won a steeplechase, but Nelson has done that having been behind Enable in the Arc and then winning a chase at Coleraine last August. He could win this, but he is very short for me and there could be value elsewhere.
Police Camp is very experienced and was 2nd at a big price in the Grand Annual last year which was actually his last run. I suspect he will need this. 
Mighty Oasis caused a huge shock when he won the Thackeray over course and distance beating the Grand Annual winner Rockstar Ronnie. He had been 2nd in this race last year and he usually runs his race.
Instigator has been a solid hurdler and is making his chasing debut here. He had one steeple trial here and it was OK. I want to see him in a race though before backing him.
Yulong Prince showed some decent form when last seen over fences in 2022. He won a couple over fences including over course and distance and was 2nd to Flying Agent, who was superb that year, in a couple of the big races. Clearly he's been injured since, but he ran in a Picnic (Aussie version of point to point but on the flat) race a couple of weeks ago and then trialed well last week at Terang. 
I'm certain we will have some better punting cards in during the rest of the season, but I will have a couple of small bets on Mighty Oasis and Yulong Prince as I think they are over priced and we might just get Nelson beat.
Yulong Prince 0.5pts @ 17/2 with William Hill
Mighty Oasis 0.5pts @ 7/1 with Bet356
 

Granted Cheltenham is obviously going to take most of the focus, but Tuesday also sees the start of the Australian jumps season at Warrnambool and I am back to cover the season for the 5th time. It has been 2 very profitable years and a couple of small losses. What started as something to focus on during Covid has turned into a real passion. All being well I should be taking in the all jumps card at Pakenham next month on my visit to Australia and I can't wait to see some of these horses in the flesh.
Right onto Warrnambool and we have 3 races an Open Hurdle, a Maiden Hurdle and an Open Steeple.
Race 1
There is actually a Cheltenham link in this first race as Crosshill featured in races against Galopin Des Champs and Gentlemansgame among others when trained by Jessie Harrington. He ran a couple of promising races at Pakenham and in the Grand Annual last year and whilst he did go on to win a maiden on the flat his other jumps starts weren't great. He hasn't run over hurdles in Australia, but his last run in Ireland was a win over hurdles at the Punchestown Festival so he's very capable. He's trialed well and ran a respectable race on the flat last month. 
He does have to give weight away to the very short price fav here though. Teofilo Star ran in 3 hurdles last year and after finishing 2nd at Pakenham he broke his maiden tag over course and distance in May. He impressed that day and he was even more impressive 3 weeks later at Sandown in a BM120 when winning by 15L. He went back on the flat after that and whilst he was well beaten in the Brisbane Cup he did when a BM100 at Flemington just before. He's not run in a race since, but won his last hurdles trial.
Serenade The Stars was behind Crosshill in the trial at Terang last week. He won the first maiden hurdle of the season last year and was then 2nd in his other 2 hurdle starts. He will be fit from the flat.
If Crosshill could run to his Irish form he would be over priced, but I don't think he's been quite up to that level and Teofilo Star looks a potential top notcher over hurdles this season and he ought to win as his odds suggest although 1/14 is very short. Its a race to watch.
Race 2
Only 2 of these have raced over hurdles and Buffalo Bill has had 20 goes without. That clearly makes things tricky especially as none of these have raced at that high a level on the flat. Tarn's Prince is the favourite and he trialed well against some useful horses last week at Terang. I am though going to take a chance on Elementry. Very unusual for top connections to send a horse over hurdles after just one flat run, which granted was awful. He won his 2nd hurdles trial here and beat Antequera into 2nd place. He seemed to enjoy jumping and his jockey seemed keen to try and teach him how to race. He's been very well backed which whilst annoying in one way does add to the confidence that he's going to go very well.
Elementry 1pt @ 7/2 with William Hill
Race 3
There can't be many horses that have run in the Arc and then won a steeplechase, but Nelson has done that having been behind Enable in the Arc and then winning a chase at Coleraine last August. He could win this, but he is very short for me and there could be value elsewhere.
Police Camp is very experienced and was 2nd at a big price in the Grand Annual last year which was actually his last run. I suspect he will need this. 
Mighty Oasis caused a huge shock when he won the Thackeray over course and distance beating the Grand Annual winner Rockstar Ronnie. He had been 2nd in this race last year and he usually runs his race.
Instigator has been a solid hurdler and is making his chasing debut here. He had one steeple trial here and it was OK. I want to see him in a race though before backing him.
Yulong Prince showed some decent form when last seen over fences in 2022. He won a couple over fences including over course and distance and was 2nd to Flying Agent, who was superb that year, in a couple of the big races. Clearly he's been injured since, but he ran in a Picnic (Aussie version of point to point but on the flat) race a couple of weeks ago and then trialed well last week at Terang. 
I'm certain we will have some better punting cards in during the rest of the season, but I will have a couple of small bets on Mighty Oasis and Yulong Prince as I think they are over priced and we might just get Nelson beat.
Yulong Prince 0.5pts @ 17/2 with William Hill
Mighty Oasis 0.5pts @ 7/1 with Bet356
 

Granted Cheltenham is obviously going to take most of the focus, but Tuesday also sees the start of the Australian jumps season at Warrnambool and I am back to cover the season for the 5th time. It has been 2 very profitable years and a couple of small losses. What started as something to focus on during Covid has turned into a real passion. All being well I should be taking in the all jumps card at Pakenham next month on my visit to Australia and I can't wait to see some of these horses in the flesh.
Right onto Warrnambool and we have 3 races an Open Hurdle, a Maiden Hurdle and an Open Steeple.
Race 1
There is actually a Cheltenham link in this first race as Crosshill featured in races against Galopin Des Champs and Gentlemansgame among others when trained by Jessie Harrington. He ran a couple of promising races at Pakenham and in the Grand Annual last year and whilst he did go on to win a maiden on the flat his other jumps starts weren't great. He hasn't run over hurdles in Australia, but his last run in Ireland was a win over hurdles at the Punchestown Festival so he's very capable. He's trialed well and ran a respectable race on the flat last month. 
He does have to give weight away to the very short price fav here though. Teofilo Star ran in 3 hurdles last year and after finishing 2nd at Pakenham he broke his maiden tag over course and distance in May. He impressed that day and he was even more impressive 3 weeks later at Sandown in a BM120 when winning by 15L. He went back on the flat after that and whilst he was well beaten in the Brisbane Cup he did when a BM100 at Flemington just before. He's not run in a race since, but won his last hurdles trial.
Serenade The Stars was behind Crosshill in the trial at Terang last week. He won the first maiden hurdle of the season last year and was then 2nd in his other 2 hurdle starts. He will be fit from the flat.
If Crosshill could run to his Irish form he would be over priced, but I don't think he's been quite up to that level and Teofilo Star looks a potential top notcher over hurdles this season and he ought to win as his odds suggest although 1/14 is very short. Its a race to watch.
Race 2
Only 2 of these have raced over hurdles and Buffalo Bill has had 20 goes without. That clearly makes things tricky especially as none of these have raced at that high a level on the flat. Tarn's Prince is the favourite and he trialed well against some useful horses last week at Terang. I am though going to take a chance on Elementry. Very unusual for top connections to send a horse over hurdles after just one flat run, which granted was awful. He won his 2nd hurdles trial here and beat Antequera into 2nd place. He seemed to enjoy jumping and his jockey seemed keen to try and teach him how to race. He's been very well backed which whilst annoying in one way does add to the confidence that he's going to go very well.
Elementry 1pt @ 7/2 with William Hill
Race 3
There can't be many horses that have run in the Arc and then won a steeplechase, but Nelson has done that having been behind Enable in the Arc and then winning a chase at Coleraine last August. He could win this, but he is very short for me and there could be value elsewhere.
Police Camp is very experienced and was 2nd at a big price in the Grand Annual last year which was actually his last run. I suspect he will need this. 
Mighty Oasis caused a huge shock when he won the Thackeray over course and distance beating the Grand Annual winner Rockstar Ronnie. He had been 2nd in this race last year and he usually runs his race.
Instigator has been a solid hurdler and is making his chasing debut here. He had one steeple trial here and it was OK. I want to see him in a race though before backing him.
Yulong Prince showed some decent form when last seen over fences in 2022. He won a couple over fences including over course and distance and was 2nd to Flying Agent, who was superb that year, in a couple of the big races. Clearly he's been injured since, but he ran in a Picnic (Aussie version of point to point but on the flat) race a couple of weeks ago and then trialed well last week at Terang. 
I'm certain we will have some better punting cards in during the rest of the season, but I will have a couple of small bets on Mighty Oasis and Yulong Prince as I think they are over priced and we might just get Nelson beat.
Yulong Prince 0.5pts @ 17/2 with William Hill
Mighty Oasis 0.5pts @ 7/1 with Bet356
 

Granted Cheltenham is obviously going to take most of the focus, but Tuesday also sees the start of the Australian jumps season at Warrnambool and I am back to cover the season for the 5th time. It has been 2 very profitable years and a couple of small losses. What started as something to focus on during Covid has turned into a real passion. All being well I should be taking in the all jumps card at Pakenham next month on my visit to Australia and I can't wait to see some of these horses in the flesh.
Right onto Warrnambool and we have 3 races an Open Hurdle, a Maiden Hurdle and an Open Steeple.
Race 1
There is actually a Cheltenham link in this first race as Crosshill featured in races against Galopin Des Champs and Gentlemansgame among others when trained by Jessie Harrington. He ran a couple of promising races at Pakenham and in the Grand Annual last year and whilst he did go on to win a maiden on the flat his other jumps starts weren't great. He hasn't run over hurdles in Australia, but his last run in Ireland was a win over hurdles at the Punchestown Festival so he's very capable. He's trialed well and ran a respectable race on the flat last month. 
He does have to give weight away to the very short price fav here though. Teofilo Star ran in 3 hurdles last year and after finishing 2nd at Pakenham he broke his maiden tag over course and distance in May. He impressed that day and he was even more impressive 3 weeks later at Sandown in a BM120 when winning by 15L. He went back on the flat after that and whilst he was well beaten in the Brisbane Cup he did when a BM100 at Flemington just before. He's not run in a race since, but won his last hurdles trial.
Serenade The Stars was behind Crosshill in the trial at Terang last week. He won the first maiden hurdle of the season last year and was then 2nd in his other 2 hurdle starts. He will be fit from the flat.
If Crosshill could run to his Irish form he would be over priced, but I don't think he's been quite up to that level and Teofilo Star looks a potential top notcher over hurdles this season and he ought to win as his odds suggest although 1/14 is very short. Its a race to watch.
Race 2
Only 2 of these have raced over hurdles and Buffalo Bill has had 20 goes without. That clearly makes things tricky especially as none of these have raced at that high a level on the flat. Tarn's Prince is the favourite and he trialed well against some useful horses last week at Terang. I am though going to take a chance on Elementry. Very unusual for top connections to send a horse over hurdles after just one flat run, which granted was awful. He won his 2nd hurdles trial here and beat Antequera into 2nd place. He seemed to enjoy jumping and his jockey seemed keen to try and teach him how to race. He's been very well backed which whilst annoying in one way does add to the confidence that he's going to go very well.
Elementry 1pt @ 7/2 with William Hill
Race 3
There can't be many horses that have run in the Arc and then won a steeplechase, but Nelson has done that having been behind Enable in the Arc and then winning a chase at Coleraine last August. He could win this, but he is very short for me and there could be value elsewhere.
Police Camp is very experienced and was 2nd at a big price in the Grand Annual last year which was actually his last run. I suspect he will need this. 
Mighty Oasis caused a huge shock when he won the Thackeray over course and distance beating the Grand Annual winner Rockstar Ronnie. He had been 2nd in this race last year and he usually runs his race.
Instigator has been a solid hurdler and is making his chasing debut here. He had one steeple trial here and it was OK. I want to see him in a race though before backing him.
Yulong Prince showed some decent form when last seen over fences in 2022. He won a couple over fences including over course and distance and was 2nd to Flying Agent, who was superb that year, in a couple of the big races. Clearly he's been injured since, but he ran in a Picnic (Aussie version of point to point but on the flat) race a couple of weeks ago and then trialed well last week at Terang. 
I'm certain we will have some better punting cards in during the rest of the season, but I will have a couple of small bets on Mighty Oasis and Yulong Prince as I think they are over priced and we might just get Nelson beat.
Yulong Prince 0.5pts @ 17/2 with William Hill
Mighty Oasis 0.5pts @ 7/1 with Bet356
 

Banbury v Southport When Banbury first changed their manager they perked up and won a couple of games and drew against Chester. Since then though they have been dreadful and have lost 5 on the bounce conceding 3 on three occasions and 2 the other couple. It is looking like they will go down and they deserved to lose against Rushall on Tuesday night. Southport have picked up in recent weeks as well. They had expected losses to Chorley and Hereford in their last 6 games, but they have beaten Brackley, Scarborough and Warrington (who they beat 3-0 on Tuesday night) as well as drawing against Peterborough. Those points picked up have been crucial to seeing them try and pull away from the relegation zone. If these two continue in the form they have been then the away side are too big.   Blyth Spartans v Kings Lynn Another side who look like they will stay up now are Kings Lynn and they have had just one defeat in their last 8 games and are unbeaten in 6. They had a good win last Saturday when they beat South Sheilds 3-1. They travel to a Blyth side who are in desperate form having only picked up 2 points in their last 8 games. They will be looking nervously over their shoulders with the likes of Kings Lynn chasing them down and I like the look of an away win here.   Gloucester v Boston Typical of my own team to go and prove me wrong a couple of weeks ago when managing to get a win over Scarborough. We still look set for relegation, but I think we were able to take advantage of a Scarborough side who are in desperate form at the moment. Whilst Boston have been picking up more points they are now 3 without a win and they have lost their last 2. The draw was against Blyth and they lost to Buxton and Spennymoor which suggests to me that Gloucester might be able to get a result. The key thing for me is Boston aren't defending all that well and with Theo Robinson scoring goals for the home side I think there is a chance of a home win.   Spennymoor v Darlington I watched Darlington against Southport and Banbury after putting them up in both games and they were awful both times. The difference between then and having watched them beat Scunthorpe 4-0 on Tuesday night was staggering. Steve Watson has done a hell of a job and they will stay up now. They have won 4 on the bounce and 5 of their last 6. In those 6 games they have scored 16 times and conceded just 5. Now this will be far from a gimmie as Spennymoor have turned their season around as well. They are unbeaten in 6 and won 5 of those. It is also just 1 defeat in 9. However Darlington are way over priced for this and hopefully they can land this local derby.   Prices from Wednesday 7pm   Southport 2pts @ 8/5 with Paddy Power, Betfred and Betfair (Hills and Skybet are massive stand outs at 2/1 and take up to 5/4) Kings Lynn 2pts @ 7/4 with Betfred (Skybet and Hills are massive stand outs at 21/10 and take up to 6/5) Gloucester 1pt @ 2/1 with 2/1 with Paddy Power, Betfair, Betfred and Bet365 (Sky are 11/5 and take up to 7/4) Darlington 2pts @ 14/5 with Skybet, Paddy Power and Betfair (take up to 15/8

Banbury v Southport When Banbury first changed their manager they perked up and won a couple of games and drew against Chester. Since then though they have been dreadful and have lost 5 on the bounce conceding 3 on three occasions and 2 the other couple. It is looking like they will go down and they deserved to lose against Rushall on Tuesday night. Southport have picked up in recent weeks as well. They had expected losses to Chorley and Hereford in their last 6 games, but they have beaten Brackley, Scarborough and Warrington (who they beat 3-0 on Tuesday night) as well as drawing against Peterborough. Those points picked up have been crucial to seeing them try and pull away from the relegation zone. If these two continue in the form they have been then the away side are too big.   Blyth Spartans v Kings Lynn Another side who look like they will stay up now are Kings Lynn and they have had just one defeat in their last 8 games and are unbeaten in 6. They had a good win last Saturday when they beat South Sheilds 3-1. They travel to a Blyth side who are in desperate form having only picked up 2 points in their last 8 games. They will be looking nervously over their shoulders with the likes of Kings Lynn chasing them down and I like the look of an away win here.   Gloucester v Boston Typical of my own team to go and prove me wrong a couple of weeks ago when managing to get a win over Scarborough. We still look set for relegation, but I think we were able to take advantage of a Scarborough side who are in desperate form at the moment. Whilst Boston have been picking up more points they are now 3 without a win and they have lost their last 2. The draw was against Blyth and they lost to Buxton and Spennymoor which suggests to me that Gloucester might be able to get a result. The key thing for me is Boston aren't defending all that well and with Theo Robinson scoring goals for the home side I think there is a chance of a home win.   Spennymoor v Darlington I watched Darlington against Southport and Banbury after putting them up in both games and they were awful both times. The difference between then and having watched them beat Scunthorpe 4-0 on Tuesday night was staggering. Steve Watson has done a hell of a job and they will stay up now. They have won 4 on the bounce and 5 of their last 6. In those 6 games they have scored 16 times and conceded just 5. Now this will be far from a gimmie as Spennymoor have turned their season around as well. They are unbeaten in 6 and won 5 of those. It is also just 1 defeat in 9. However Darlington are way over priced for this and hopefully they can land this local derby.   Prices from Wednesday 7pm   Southport 2pts @ 8/5 with Paddy Power, Betfred and Betfair (Hills and Skybet are massive stand outs at 2/1 and take up to 5/4) Kings Lynn 2pts @ 7/4 with Betfred (Skybet and Hills are massive stand outs at 21/10 and take up to 6/5) Gloucester 1pt @ 2/1 with 2/1 with Paddy Power, Betfair, Betfred and Bet365 (Sky are 11/5 and take up to 7/4) Darlington 2pts @ 14/5 with Skybet, Paddy Power and Betfair (take up to 15/8

Banbury v Southport When Banbury first changed their manager they perked up and won a couple of games and drew against Chester. Since then though they have been dreadful and have lost 5 on the bounce conceding 3 on three occasions and 2 the other couple. It is looking like they will go down and they deserved to lose against Rushall on Tuesday night. Southport have picked up in recent weeks as well. They had expected losses to Chorley and Hereford in their last 6 games, but they have beaten Brackley, Scarborough and Warrington (who they beat 3-0 on Tuesday night) as well as drawing against Peterborough. Those points picked up have been crucial to seeing them try and pull away from the relegation zone. If these two continue in the form they have been then the away side are too big.   Blyth Spartans v Kings Lynn Another side who look like they will stay up now are Kings Lynn and they have had just one defeat in their last 8 games and are unbeaten in 6. They had a good win last Saturday when they beat South Sheilds 3-1. They travel to a Blyth side who are in desperate form having only picked up 2 points in their last 8 games. They will be looking nervously over their shoulders with the likes of Kings Lynn chasing them down and I like the look of an away win here.   Gloucester v Boston Typical of my own team to go and prove me wrong a couple of weeks ago when managing to get a win over Scarborough. We still look set for relegation, but I think we were able to take advantage of a Scarborough side who are in desperate form at the moment. Whilst Boston have been picking up more points they are now 3 without a win and they have lost their last 2. The draw was against Blyth and they lost to Buxton and Spennymoor which suggests to me that Gloucester might be able to get a result. The key thing for me is Boston aren't defending all that well and with Theo Robinson scoring goals for the home side I think there is a chance of a home win.   Spennymoor v Darlington I watched Darlington against Southport and Banbury after putting them up in both games and they were awful both times. The difference between then and having watched them beat Scunthorpe 4-0 on Tuesday night was staggering. Steve Watson has done a hell of a job and they will stay up now. They have won 4 on the bounce and 5 of their last 6. In those 6 games they have scored 16 times and conceded just 5. Now this will be far from a gimmie as Spennymoor have turned their season around as well. They are unbeaten in 6 and won 5 of those. It is also just 1 defeat in 9. However Darlington are way over priced for this and hopefully they can land this local derby.   Prices from Wednesday 7pm   Southport 2pts @ 8/5 with Paddy Power, Betfred and Betfair (Hills and Skybet are massive stand outs at 2/1 and take up to 5/4) Kings Lynn 2pts @ 7/4 with Betfred (Skybet and Hills are massive stand outs at 21/10 and take up to 6/5) Gloucester 1pt @ 2/1 with 2/1 with Paddy Power, Betfair, Betfred and Bet365 (Sky are 11/5 and take up to 7/4) Darlington 2pts @ 14/5 with Skybet, Paddy Power and Betfair (take up to 15/8

Banbury v Southport When Banbury first changed their manager they perked up and won a couple of games and drew against Chester. Since then though they have been dreadful and have lost 5 on the bounce conceding 3 on three occasions and 2 the other couple. It is looking like they will go down and they deserved to lose against Rushall on Tuesday night. Southport have picked up in recent weeks as well. They had expected losses to Chorley and Hereford in their last 6 games, but they have beaten Brackley, Scarborough and Warrington (who they beat 3-0 on Tuesday night) as well as drawing against Peterborough. Those points picked up have been crucial to seeing them try and pull away from the relegation zone. If these two continue in the form they have been then the away side are too big.   Blyth Spartans v Kings Lynn Another side who look like they will stay up now are Kings Lynn and they have had just one defeat in their last 8 games and are unbeaten in 6. They had a good win last Saturday when they beat South Sheilds 3-1. They travel to a Blyth side who are in desperate form having only picked up 2 points in their last 8 games. They will be looking nervously over their shoulders with the likes of Kings Lynn chasing them down and I like the look of an away win here.   Gloucester v Boston Typical of my own team to go and prove me wrong a couple of weeks ago when managing to get a win over Scarborough. We still look set for relegation, but I think we were able to take advantage of a Scarborough side who are in desperate form at the moment. Whilst Boston have been picking up more points they are now 3 without a win and they have lost their last 2. The draw was against Blyth and they lost to Buxton and Spennymoor which suggests to me that Gloucester might be able to get a result. The key thing for me is Boston aren't defending all that well and with Theo Robinson scoring goals for the home side I think there is a chance of a home win.   Spennymoor v Darlington I watched Darlington against Southport and Banbury after putting them up in both games and they were awful both times. The difference between then and having watched them beat Scunthorpe 4-0 on Tuesday night was staggering. Steve Watson has done a hell of a job and they will stay up now. They have won 4 on the bounce and 5 of their last 6. In those 6 games they have scored 16 times and conceded just 5. Now this will be far from a gimmie as Spennymoor have turned their season around as well. They are unbeaten in 6 and won 5 of those. It is also just 1 defeat in 9. However Darlington are way over priced for this and hopefully they can land this local derby.   Prices from Wednesday 7pm   Southport 2pts @ 8/5 with Paddy Power, Betfred and Betfair (Hills and Skybet are massive stand outs at 2/1 and take up to 5/4) Kings Lynn 2pts @ 7/4 with Betfred (Skybet and Hills are massive stand outs at 21/10 and take up to 6/5) Gloucester 1pt @ 2/1 with 2/1 with Paddy Power, Betfair, Betfred and Bet365 (Sky are 11/5 and take up to 7/4) Darlington 2pts @ 14/5 with Skybet, Paddy Power and Betfair (take up to 15/8

Banbury v Southport When Banbury first changed their manager they perked up and won a couple of games and drew against Chester. Since then though they have been dreadful and have lost 5 on the bounce conceding 3 on three occasions and 2 the other couple. It is looking like they will go down and they deserved to lose against Rushall on Tuesday night. Southport have picked up in recent weeks as well. They had expected losses to Chorley and Hereford in their last 6 games, but they have beaten Brackley, Scarborough and Warrington (who they beat 3-0 on Tuesday night) as well as drawing against Peterborough. Those points picked up have been crucial to seeing them try and pull away from the relegation zone. If these two continue in the form they have been then the away side are too big.   Blyth Spartans v Kings Lynn Another side who look like they will stay up now are Kings Lynn and they have had just one defeat in their last 8 games and are unbeaten in 6. They had a good win last Saturday when they beat South Sheilds 3-1. They travel to a Blyth side who are in desperate form having only picked up 2 points in their last 8 games. They will be looking nervously over their shoulders with the likes of Kings Lynn chasing them down and I like the look of an away win here.   Gloucester v Boston Typical of my own team to go and prove me wrong a couple of weeks ago when managing to get a win over Scarborough. We still look set for relegation, but I think we were able to take advantage of a Scarborough side who are in desperate form at the moment. Whilst Boston have been picking up more points they are now 3 without a win and they have lost their last 2. The draw was against Blyth and they lost to Buxton and Spennymoor which suggests to me that Gloucester might be able to get a result. The key thing for me is Boston aren't defending all that well and with Theo Robinson scoring goals for the home side I think there is a chance of a home win.   Spennymoor v Darlington I watched Darlington against Southport and Banbury after putting them up in both games and they were awful both times. The difference between then and having watched them beat Scunthorpe 4-0 on Tuesday night was staggering. Steve Watson has done a hell of a job and they will stay up now. They have won 4 on the bounce and 5 of their last 6. In those 6 games they have scored 16 times and conceded just 5. Now this will be far from a gimmie as Spennymoor have turned their season around as well. They are unbeaten in 6 and won 5 of those. It is also just 1 defeat in 9. However Darlington are way over priced for this and hopefully they can land this local derby.   Prices from Wednesday 7pm   Southport 2pts @ 8/5 with Paddy Power, Betfred and Betfair (Hills and Skybet are massive stand outs at 2/1 and take up to 5/4) Kings Lynn 2pts @ 7/4 with Betfred (Skybet and Hills are massive stand outs at 21/10 and take up to 6/5) Gloucester 1pt @ 2/1 with 2/1 with Paddy Power, Betfair, Betfred and Bet365 (Sky are 11/5 and take up to 7/4) Darlington 2pts @ 14/5 with Skybet, Paddy Power and Betfair (take up to 15/8

Boreham Wood v AFC Fylde The only team to have beaten Fylde in their last 9 games was Barnet last week and they played well in that game despite losing 4-2. They were 2 up on Tuesday against Solihull, but they ended up drawing. Solihull and Barnet are much better than Boreham Wood though and they have not really convinced all season so with Fylde in such good form I am happy to take them to pick up 3 more points here.    Southend v Aldershot Aldershot are a bizarre side. They can be really bad, as they were when Fylde hammered them recently, but they then beat two of the best sides in the league in Altrincham and Barnet. They only beat Barnet 1-0 on Tuesday, but it should have been more and they kept Barnet very quiet. I took on Southend on Tuesday and they did deserve the win. They score their first 2 goals for a while as well so that does give them a bit of a boost. A lot depends on which Aldershot turns up, but 3/1 will look very big if they are at their best.   Gloucester v Scarborough Apart from a 0-0 draw against Scunthorpe, Scarborough have been struggling for points recently. The great news for them though is they get to play a Gloucester side who seem to have given up the ghost and are waiting for relegation to happen. They didn't manage a shot on target on Tuesday against Buxton and only really had one serious chance in the match. The vast majority of fans already think they are down, I get the feeling the manager thinks they are down and it really does look a great chance for the away side to get back to winning ways.   Hampton & Richmond v Farnborough As I mentioned in the Torquay preview, Farnborough should have beaten them on Tuesday night and it was frustrating they couldn't find a goal. I am however going to take them on today. They have really struggled away from home all season and I am surprised that they have gone favourites to beat Hampton. At home they are 9 wins, 5 draws, 2 defeats and away they are 2 wins, 5 draws and 9 defeats. Hampton have mainly bounced back from their blip and only Aveley have beat them in their last 4. Beating Weymouth 4-2 on Tuesday was a decent effort and they have been strong at home all season.   Bognor Regis v Potters Bar (Isthmian Premier) Bognor have still to lose at home in the league, but their last two results have been a draw with Cheshunt and a loss to Kingstonian and they are two of the worst sides in the league. Potters Bar have done us quite a few favours this season and they are over priced to win this game.   Acca Having a look at the fixtures today there were 5 that stood out where teams really ought to win. Chesterfield and Gateshead look bankers at home to Rochdale and Oxford City respectively. At Step 3 Coalville should get the better of Berkhamstead, Chesham host Poole and should be able to give them another defeat and Dulwich continue in strong form and host a struggling Cheshunt.   Prices from 6pm Friday night   AFC Fylde 1pt @ 15/8 with Bet365 (take up to 6/4) Aldershot 1pt @ 3/1 with Bet365, Betfair, Paddy Power, Betfred and Coral (take up to 9/4) Scarborough 2pts @ 11/10 with everyone (take up to 10/11) Hampton 1pt @ 8/5 with Skybet and Betfred (take up to 11/8) Potters Bar 1pt @ 100/30 with Betfair and Paddy Power (take up to 9/4) Chesterfield/Gateshead/Coalville/Chesham/Dulwich 1pt acca @ 3.9/1 with Bet365

Boreham Wood v AFC Fylde The only team to have beaten Fylde in their last 9 games was Barnet last week and they played well in that game despite losing 4-2. They were 2 up on Tuesday against Solihull, but they ended up drawing. Solihull and Barnet are much better than Boreham Wood though and they have not really convinced all season so with Fylde in such good form I am happy to take them to pick up 3 more points here.    Southend v Aldershot Aldershot are a bizarre side. They can be really bad, as they were when Fylde hammered them recently, but they then beat two of the best sides in the league in Altrincham and Barnet. They only beat Barnet 1-0 on Tuesday, but it should have been more and they kept Barnet very quiet. I took on Southend on Tuesday and they did deserve the win. They score their first 2 goals for a while as well so that does give them a bit of a boost. A lot depends on which Aldershot turns up, but 3/1 will look very big if they are at their best.   Gloucester v Scarborough Apart from a 0-0 draw against Scunthorpe, Scarborough have been struggling for points recently. The great news for them though is they get to play a Gloucester side who seem to have given up the ghost and are waiting for relegation to happen. They didn't manage a shot on target on Tuesday against Buxton and only really had one serious chance in the match. The vast majority of fans already think they are down, I get the feeling the manager thinks they are down and it really does look a great chance for the away side to get back to winning ways.   Hampton & Richmond v Farnborough As I mentioned in the Torquay preview, Farnborough should have beaten them on Tuesday night and it was frustrating they couldn't find a goal. I am however going to take them on today. They have really struggled away from home all season and I am surprised that they have gone favourites to beat Hampton. At home they are 9 wins, 5 draws, 2 defeats and away they are 2 wins, 5 draws and 9 defeats. Hampton have mainly bounced back from their blip and only Aveley have beat them in their last 4. Beating Weymouth 4-2 on Tuesday was a decent effort and they have been strong at home all season.   Bognor Regis v Potters Bar (Isthmian Premier) Bognor have still to lose at home in the league, but their last two results have been a draw with Cheshunt and a loss to Kingstonian and they are two of the worst sides in the league. Potters Bar have done us quite a few favours this season and they are over priced to win this game.   Acca Having a look at the fixtures today there were 5 that stood out where teams really ought to win. Chesterfield and Gateshead look bankers at home to Rochdale and Oxford City respectively. At Step 3 Coalville should get the better of Berkhamstead, Chesham host Poole and should be able to give them another defeat and Dulwich continue in strong form and host a struggling Cheshunt.   Prices from 6pm Friday night   AFC Fylde 1pt @ 15/8 with Bet365 (take up to 6/4) Aldershot 1pt @ 3/1 with Bet365, Betfair, Paddy Power, Betfred and Coral (take up to 9/4) Scarborough 2pts @ 11/10 with everyone (take up to 10/11) Hampton 1pt @ 8/5 with Skybet and Betfred (take up to 11/8) Potters Bar 1pt @ 100/30 with Betfair and Paddy Power (take up to 9/4) Chesterfield/Gateshead/Coalville/Chesham/Dulwich 1pt acca @ 3.9/1 with Bet365

Boreham Wood v AFC Fylde The only team to have beaten Fylde in their last 9 games was Barnet last week and they played well in that game despite losing 4-2. They were 2 up on Tuesday against Solihull, but they ended up drawing. Solihull and Barnet are much better than Boreham Wood though and they have not really convinced all season so with Fylde in such good form I am happy to take them to pick up 3 more points here.    Southend v Aldershot Aldershot are a bizarre side. They can be really bad, as they were when Fylde hammered them recently, but they then beat two of the best sides in the league in Altrincham and Barnet. They only beat Barnet 1-0 on Tuesday, but it should have been more and they kept Barnet very quiet. I took on Southend on Tuesday and they did deserve the win. They score their first 2 goals for a while as well so that does give them a bit of a boost. A lot depends on which Aldershot turns up, but 3/1 will look very big if they are at their best.   Gloucester v Scarborough Apart from a 0-0 draw against Scunthorpe, Scarborough have been struggling for points recently. The great news for them though is they get to play a Gloucester side who seem to have given up the ghost and are waiting for relegation to happen. They didn't manage a shot on target on Tuesday against Buxton and only really had one serious chance in the match. The vast majority of fans already think they are down, I get the feeling the manager thinks they are down and it really does look a great chance for the away side to get back to winning ways.   Hampton & Richmond v Farnborough As I mentioned in the Torquay preview, Farnborough should have beaten them on Tuesday night and it was frustrating they couldn't find a goal. I am however going to take them on today. They have really struggled away from home all season and I am surprised that they have gone favourites to beat Hampton. At home they are 9 wins, 5 draws, 2 defeats and away they are 2 wins, 5 draws and 9 defeats. Hampton have mainly bounced back from their blip and only Aveley have beat them in their last 4. Beating Weymouth 4-2 on Tuesday was a decent effort and they have been strong at home all season.   Bognor Regis v Potters Bar (Isthmian Premier) Bognor have still to lose at home in the league, but their last two results have been a draw with Cheshunt and a loss to Kingstonian and they are two of the worst sides in the league. Potters Bar have done us quite a few favours this season and they are over priced to win this game.   Acca Having a look at the fixtures today there were 5 that stood out where teams really ought to win. Chesterfield and Gateshead look bankers at home to Rochdale and Oxford City respectively. At Step 3 Coalville should get the better of Berkhamstead, Chesham host Poole and should be able to give them another defeat and Dulwich continue in strong form and host a struggling Cheshunt.   Prices from 6pm Friday night   AFC Fylde 1pt @ 15/8 with Bet365 (take up to 6/4) Aldershot 1pt @ 3/1 with Bet365, Betfair, Paddy Power, Betfred and Coral (take up to 9/4) Scarborough 2pts @ 11/10 with everyone (take up to 10/11) Hampton 1pt @ 8/5 with Skybet and Betfred (take up to 11/8) Potters Bar 1pt @ 100/30 with Betfair and Paddy Power (take up to 9/4) Chesterfield/Gateshead/Coalville/Chesham/Dulwich 1pt acca @ 3.9/1 with Bet365

Boreham Wood v AFC Fylde The only team to have beaten Fylde in their last 9 games was Barnet last week and they played well in that game despite losing 4-2. They were 2 up on Tuesday against Solihull, but they ended up drawing. Solihull and Barnet are much better than Boreham Wood though and they have not really convinced all season so with Fylde in such good form I am happy to take them to pick up 3 more points here.    Southend v Aldershot Aldershot are a bizarre side. They can be really bad, as they were when Fylde hammered them recently, but they then beat two of the best sides in the league in Altrincham and Barnet. They only beat Barnet 1-0 on Tuesday, but it should have been more and they kept Barnet very quiet. I took on Southend on Tuesday and they did deserve the win. They score their first 2 goals for a while as well so that does give them a bit of a boost. A lot depends on which Aldershot turns up, but 3/1 will look very big if they are at their best.   Gloucester v Scarborough Apart from a 0-0 draw against Scunthorpe, Scarborough have been struggling for points recently. The great news for them though is they get to play a Gloucester side who seem to have given up the ghost and are waiting for relegation to happen. They didn't manage a shot on target on Tuesday against Buxton and only really had one serious chance in the match. The vast majority of fans already think they are down, I get the feeling the manager thinks they are down and it really does look a great chance for the away side to get back to winning ways.   Hampton & Richmond v Farnborough As I mentioned in the Torquay preview, Farnborough should have beaten them on Tuesday night and it was frustrating they couldn't find a goal. I am however going to take them on today. They have really struggled away from home all season and I am surprised that they have gone favourites to beat Hampton. At home they are 9 wins, 5 draws, 2 defeats and away they are 2 wins, 5 draws and 9 defeats. Hampton have mainly bounced back from their blip and only Aveley have beat them in their last 4. Beating Weymouth 4-2 on Tuesday was a decent effort and they have been strong at home all season.   Bognor Regis v Potters Bar (Isthmian Premier) Bognor have still to lose at home in the league, but their last two results have been a draw with Cheshunt and a loss to Kingstonian and they are two of the worst sides in the league. Potters Bar have done us quite a few favours this season and they are over priced to win this game.   Acca Having a look at the fixtures today there were 5 that stood out where teams really ought to win. Chesterfield and Gateshead look bankers at home to Rochdale and Oxford City respectively. At Step 3 Coalville should get the better of Berkhamstead, Chesham host Poole and should be able to give them another defeat and Dulwich continue in strong form and host a struggling Cheshunt.   Prices from 6pm Friday night   AFC Fylde 1pt @ 15/8 with Bet365 (take up to 6/4) Aldershot 1pt @ 3/1 with Bet365, Betfair, Paddy Power, Betfred and Coral (take up to 9/4) Scarborough 2pts @ 11/10 with everyone (take up to 10/11) Hampton 1pt @ 8/5 with Skybet and Betfred (take up to 11/8) Potters Bar 1pt @ 100/30 with Betfair and Paddy Power (take up to 9/4) Chesterfield/Gateshead/Coalville/Chesham/Dulwich 1pt acca @ 3.9/1 with Bet365

One of the worst managers we've ever had and I'm amazed he's got another job. Be prepared for long ball and hard to watch football.

One of the worst managers we've ever had and I'm amazed he's got another job. Be prepared for long ball and hard to watch football.