Darran

AFC Fylde v Woking I know it is easy to say after they have won, but Oldham should have been more than a 1pt bet last week. Woking really are rubbish and Oldham beat them with ease. Prior to Tuesday night I might not have played in this game as Fylde have surprisingly struggled massively for points so far this season, but they sacked the manager which needed to be done and they then beat Southend on Tuesday night. I watched that game and thought they deserved to edge it. Having Nick Haughton up front is always going to be a plus and he scored the winner on Tuesday. I make them clear favs to beat Woking on the back of that win. Altrincham v Boston We were a bit unlucky with Boston last week against Aldershot and I think they are worth backing again here at Altrincham. They have had two very good wins in their last 2 away games, beating York 2-0 and Sutton 3-0, and with Altrincham not really looking all that convincing so far this season I think the bookies have under estimated Boston here. Gateshead v Forest Green Bubble well and truly burst last week as Gateshead lost 7-1 to Dagenham. Clearly that was a bad day at the office, but they looked shocking in defence and injuries to key players are not helping. They have dipped their toe into the loan market to help, but I've yet to be convinced that they look potential champions on the games I have watched of them so far. Clearly they can win this, but I just don't get how they are odds on to beat a FGR side who have one of the best squads in the divisions. Barnet are the only team to beat them and whilst a point against Wealdstone was a bit disappointing last week, I can see them causing Gateshead lots of problems here especially if they defend like they did at Dagenham. Hartlepool v Dagenham & Redbridge Speaking of Dagenham that win must have given them huge confidence and came on the back of beating Sutton 3-0. They are yet to win away from home, but their only loss was an unlucky one to Woking although I do hope they can take those home performances into their away ones. I remain unconvinced by Hartlepool and whilst they have only lost twice, they don't look a side who have many goals in them. I don't think there is much between these two on paper and Dagenham certainly have the momentum so look value to me. Solihull v Southend A bizarre gamble on Southend for this game as they haven't really got going so far this season. I tried taking them on against Eastleigh last week which didn't pay off, but that is one of just two victories so far this season. As mentioned above I watched them on Tuesday and they didn't impress. They look a side short on players and they haven't really looked to strengthen as I thought they would before the season started. Defender Gus Scott-Morriss has scored 7 of their 11 goals and that clearly isn't going to be sustainable. Solihull look to have turned the corner with wins at Yeovil and Rochdale the last twice. They should be clear favs for this in my view and they look a good value bet. Eastbourne v Slough I don't get why Slough are favs for this game. They are stuttering after winning 5 of their first 6 games with defeats to Weston and Hemel in their last two league matches. They then needed a replay to beat Chichester in the FA Cup this week. Eastbourne are above Slough in the table and I fully expect that to be the case come April so they really ought to be favourites. Their manager wasn't happy with their performance against Boreham Wood in the FA Cup last Saturday, but that was always going to be a tough game in the circumstances and I'm expecting much better here. FCUM v Matlock The home sides only win so far this season came on the opening day of the season and whilst there was improvement on Tuesday night in their 2-1 loss to Macclesfield, I can see a lot of sides raising their game against them this season. I do have add though that they had sacked their manager before that game so maybe there will be more to come. Even so Matlock have seen some fresh investment and a new manager themselves and they won for the first time this season against Workington last Saturday, but they only had 10 men for most of the game and came from a goal down as well. They battled well against Ashton on Tuesday to go down 3-2 and for me they look a big price to pick up another 3 points here. Prices from 6pm Friday AFC Fylde 2pts @ 8/5 with Paddy Power, Betfair and Betfred (take up to 11/10) Boston 1pt @ 10/3 with Paddy Power and Betfair (Hills are 17/5 and take up to 9/4) FGR 1pt @ 23/10 with Paddy Power, Betfair, William Hill, Ladbrokes and Betfred (365 are 5/2 and take up to 9/5) Dagenham 1pt @ 21/10 with William Hill and Betfred (take up to 8/5) Solihull 2pts @ 9/5 with pretty much everyone (take up to 5/4) Eastbourne 1pt 19/10 with Paddy Power, Bet365 and Betfair (take up to 6/4) Matlock 1pt @ 14/5 with Bet365 (take up to 2/1)

I have one bet for tonight in the FA Cup which I actually hope loses, but there is value to be had so with my betting hat on I have to take it. Gloucester were 2 up on Saturday against Gosport, but they got 2 goals fairly late on to send the game to a replay. It was no more than they deserved either as Gloucester look tired in the 2nd half. Having watched the 2nd Gosport goal where they just passed it around with little effort made to get the ball off them. Gloucester had two injuries to key players during the game as well and with the squad already suffering on that front they have barely 11 fit players and the bench is going to be very bare. Last Tuesday against Hungerford Gloucester also tired badly in 2nd half and were very fortunate to pick up the 3 points and another game is the last thing they need. Given our record in the FA Cup I would love nothing more than a run to the 1st round again, but with 11/4 on offer the away side are value to face Oxford City in the next round. Gosport 1pt @ 11/4 with Betfred and Skybet (If you happen to have a Star Sports account they are 31/10 and take up to 2/1)

I want to keep them separate as I do my stuff on Aussie jumps horse racing and any hunter chase stuff I put up as it’s easier for people to find. If I put it up in the normal thread for each match day then it just gets lost and makes it harder to promote.

Boston v Aldershot Boston looked hopeless at the start of the season as they easily lost their first 3 games. Things have improved since though and they have had a couple of very good wins at York and Sutton. The slight concern about backing them here is that those two wins came on the road and they did lose 3-1 to Yeovil in-between those two wins. They did though have a xG of 2.24 in that Yeovil game and they held their own in the 2-1 loss to Hartlepool on Tuesday. Part of the reason I make Boston a bet here though is Aldershot have been poor on their travels so far this term which was the case last season as well. They did win at Halifax on their first away game of the season, but their xG was 0.24 and they only had 5 shots. They then have lost at Braintree and Tamworth and drew at Ebbsfleet on Tuesday night, who to be fair did seem to play much better now they had sacked the manager. Aldershot should be favs for this, but I do think the value is with the home win and hopefully Boston can pick up their first home 3 points of the season. Halifax v Eastleigh Halifax are usually pretty strong at home, but their only home win so far this season was on the opening day against Barnet. To be fair they have got a point against Gateshead and the 2 losses were only 1-0 defeats, but they have basically been involved in tight games that haven't always involved a great deal of chances. What that means is Eastleigh are value again to win this. Southend were on top on Tuesday when they went a goal up, but Eastleigh were much better after that until they conceded a penalty and it was basically game over. McCallum doesn't need too many chances to score and he could well be the difference. Woking v Oldham I must admit I half thought about putting up the 1-1 draw in the Halifax v Oldham game on Tuesday as 4 out of Oldham's last 5 games had ended 1-1. It ended 1-1 again on Tuesday and that means Oldham haven't won since the 2nd game of the season and they have only beaten Braintree and Wealdstone. Due to that I am only going to have a point on them, but I have to take Woking on again. They got very lucky on Tuesday night when they beat Wealdstone as they created hardly anything and the winner was a penalty. Oldham certainly have the better side and they really ought to be beating Woking. prices from 9pm Thursday Boston 1pt @ 12/5 with Skybet, Paddy Power and Betfair (365 huge standout at 11/4 and take up to 2/1) Eastleigh 1pt @ 21/10 with Paddy Power, William Hill, Betfair and Betfred (365 huge standout again at 9/4 and take up to 7/4) Oldham 1pt @ 29/20 with Bet365 (take up to 6/5)

Marine v Darlington I have backed Darlington a couple of times this season and not collected, but this does look a nice opportunity for them against a side who have lost 4 of their opening 7 games and won just one. At the very least Darlo should be the same price and you could argue they should be favs so 15/8 makes plenty of appeal. Peterborough Sports v Brackley The home side have done OK so far this season although they did lose 3-0 at Chester last week. They won both games over bank holiday weekend though and got a point at Hereford. Brackley have only won 2 of their opening 7 games (annoyingly one of those was when I opposed them) and they aren't doing as well as they would have hoped. Brackley should still be favs, but I am happy to take a chance that Sports can get 3 points off them. Dorking v Weymouth I am taking a real flyer with this one given Weymouth have lost every game so far and the only goals they have scored came in their opening game of the season. They have though only lost their last 3 1-0 and that includes Eastbourne and Slough. I don't think they are far away and with Dorking having big injury issues at the moment, the away side might just be capable of pulling off an upset. Dorking lost 3-1 on Monday night to Aveley and whilst they did create quite a few chances in the 2nd half they were only playing against 10 men. Clearly Dorking are the right favs, but I am happy to take a potshot at a big price. Enfield v Maidstone Maidstone were hammered on Tuesday night by Chelmsford and I did wonder if we might see the first sacking of the season. That didn't happen yet and I guess the FA Cup run would have given him some credit, but plenty of fans have already turned and they really ought to be doing better than they are. Enfield have lost 6/7 games, but 5 of them were by a single goal and they beat Weston 1-0. Again it suggests they aren't far away and with the pressure on the away side it might just tell and give Enfield a chance of causing an upset at the odds. Slough v Hemel Hempstead Slough have gone a year without losing at home so I am going to back them to lose at home. Hemel have been making a mockery of their 66/1 ante-post quote and given those at the top of the ante-post market have been misfiring so far it might just end up a season where we see a shock. Hemel went top of the table in mid-week and are 2 points clear of their hosts. They put 4 past Welling on Monday night and I wasn't overly impressed with Slough when I watched them on Tuesday against Weston. Whatever happens in the game though I just can't have Hemel being such a big price and if it wasn't for Slough's home form I would have made them 2pts not 1pt, but I think that does have to be factored in. Bracknell v Havant & Waterlooville The manager left Bracknell this week and probably their best player has also departed. There are suggestions more are going to leave as well so things might not be great at the club right now. Havant are unbeaten so far this season although have drawn 4 of their 5 league games, but the last one was against Totton. If things aren't right at the home side then Havant are more than good enough to take full advantage. Whitehawk v Cray Valley Paper Mills I did think the Isthmian Premier was tricky to work out before the season started, but Cray Valley were the big e/w bet at 66/1 and they sit in 2nd place after 5 games with the only loss against Dartford on the opening day of the season. Whitehawk have only got 4 points and lost 3-0 to Hendon in the FA Cup last week. Cray look a big price to rack up another victory. Prices from 11am Friday Darlington 1pt @ 15/8 with William Hill and Betfred (take up to 6/4) Peterborough Sports 1pt @ 5/2 with Paddy Power, William Hill and Betfair (take up to 2/1) Weymouth 1pt @ 11/2 with Paddy Power, William Hill, Betfair, BetVictor and Betfred (take up to 7/2) Enfield 1pt @ 4/1 with Paddy Power, William hill, Betfair and Betfred (take up to 13/5) Hemel 1pt @ 12/5 with Paddy Power, Betfair and Betfred (365 are 13/5 and take up to 9/5) Havant 1pt @ 15/8 with Betfred (2s with Hills and take up to 6/4) Cray Valley 1pt @ 15/8 with Betfred (take up to 6/4)

Very good pick as they won with ease

Hemel Hempstead v Bath City Bath could only name 3 outfield subs on Monday and whilst they did manage to win they haven't been creating that many chances so far this season. Hemel were one of the ante-post bets and they have had a solid start and have been creating plenty of good chances, averaging an xG of 1.9 so far this term. They haven't scored as many goals as they maybe should have done, but if they continue to create good chances then they will score. Don't think there is a huge amount in the price, but enough for me to get involved. Truro v Chelmsford Incredible performance by Truro on Monday to win 5-0 against Worthing and again it highlighted how good they have looked so far this season. They host a Chelmsford side who are yet to win so far this season and year in year out they seem to be bad travellers. Only 4 of their games are on WyScout, but in 3 of those they have had 18 shots and have an xG averaging 2.27. I think it is right they are odds on to win again. Eastbourne v Dorking Whilst we were unlucky to get a winner with Oldham, we did have some fortune with Eastbourne winning as they didn't create much and the goal was a wonder strike via a free kick. Both sides are suffering with injuries, but with Eastbourne being one of my ante-post picks I still think they have it in them to beat Dorking and certainly look over-priced to do so. Both teams have 10 points and I don't think there is a huge amount between the sides so hopefully it can be a home win. Welling v Chesham Bizarre how Welling can go from beating Farnborough 4-1 on Saturday to drawing 0-0 with Hornchurch on Monday and only having 4 shots for an xG of 0.07. Anyway they have won both of their home games so far and back at home I think they will have too much for a Chesham side who still look like they are getting used to the higher level. Oxford City v Chorley The home side are yet to win so far and I think that could continue here. They conceded 4 in both games over the weekend and only had 2 shots against Kidderminster on Monday. Chorley scored 4 against Southport on Monday and are the only team so far that Scunthorpe have dropped points to. They should be clear favourites for this. Sutton v Forest Green I am adding one more bet in the late kick-off after the signings FGR made yesterday afternoon. They signed Quigley from Chesterfield who had a great season last term and Cardwell from Southend who wouldn't have come cheaply and most expected he would go into the EFL if he was going to leave Southend. They have been nibbled at this morning and it doesn't surprise me. Sutton have had a decent enough start, but the edge is with FGR and I will be interested to see how they get on because I am tempted to add them to the ante-post portfolio. Prices from Friday 11am apart from FGR which was Saturday 10am Hemel Hempstead 1pt @ 13/10 with Paddy Power, William Hill, Betfair and Betfred (take up to 11/10) Truro 2pts @ 19/20 with Betfred and Bet365 (Hills are Evs and take up to 4/5) Eastbourne 1pt @ 5/2 with Paddy Power and Betfair (take up to 2/1) Welling 1pt @ 13/10 with Paddy Power and Betfair (365 are 11/8 and take up to 11/10) Chorley 1pt @ 6/4 with Paddy Power, Betfair and Betfred (take up to 6/5) Forest Green 1pt @ 19/10 with pretty much everyone (2/1 with Hills and take up to 6/4)

Something truly special about 70000 people in a stadium/field all singing along to a song. I think knowing what it meant to the band made it even more special as well. It wasn't just part of a world tour, it was a special moment in the bands career.

I saw Blur at Wembley last year and it was incredible and just about beats them from Glasto 09 for my favourite ever gig and I've been to a lot. Seeing them at Wembley was a special experience.

Braintree v Ebbsfleet Ebbsfleet have pretty much stunk the place out so far this season and they were especially bad on Saturday losing 3-0 to a Woking side who have not been very good themselves so far this season. Ebbsfleet basically gifted Woking the goals as well and unless they suddenly find some improvement then Braintree really ought to be winning this. It's only a point because there isn't that much in the 5/4 quote, but the exchange price is huge and if the drift continues I will be having more on. Forest Green v Altrincham Altrincham haven't been that good so far this season and have not been creating chances like they were last season. FGR have had to start with 4 away games this season and now they are at home they really ought to be capable of beating an under performing Altrincham. Oldham v Gateshead I was amazed to see Gateshead are now 5/1 for the title. As much as they weren't far away from being a bet ante-post, that price is awful. Obviously they looked good on the opening day, but then Ebbsfleet have proven themselves to be very poor so far. The Woking game was a strange one for obvious reasons and then they drew with Halifax. I watched the 1st half against Yeovil on Saturday and they really were fortunate to be in front as Yeovil more than held their own and gifted the hosts their goals. The 3rd goal was a late penalty. I didn't see a side who looked like they should be 5/1 for the title and it has to be remembered that they have lost 2 key players to long term injuries already. Now I haven't been that positive about Oldham and clearly they were shocking on Saturday, but I just can't have them being over 2/1 to beat Gateshead at home. I'd have these prices if it was the reverse fixture so whilst Gateshead might get something from the game the clear value is the home win. Maidstone v Weston-Super-Mare I'm not a huge fan of opposing ante-post selections so early on in the season, but Maidstone have not been good so far this season and Weston are looking pretty good so at the prices I am happy to back them to win this. Truro v Worthing Not sure why Truro are so big for this because I think they have looked better than Worthing so far this season. Worthing aren't really looking like they will repeat last year's successful season so the home side look big. Weymouth v Eastbourne Like Ebbsfleet, Weymouth have looked awful as well so far this season. Eastbourne have had a very solid start which backs up my ante-post thoughts on them. If they are to get anywhere near the title this is the sort of game they have to be winning and I think they are a huge price to do so. Chester v Scarborough Like Maidstone, Chester have not been good either. They created very little on Saturday despite getting a 2-2 draw and with Scarborough having had a better than expected start I am going to take a chance on them at a huge price to pick up a win against an under-performing home side. Redditch v Stourbridge To be fair Redditch have had a good start which slightly surprises me given Tim Flowers is boss, but Stourbridge as we know are looking very good so far this season and no way should they be 2/1 shots to win this. Prices from 9.30 last night Braintree 1pt @ 5/4 with Betfred, Paddy Power and Betfair Forest Green 2pts @ 11/10 with Betfred and Bet365 (take up to 10/11) Oldham 1pt @ 2/1 with Bet365, Skybet, William Hill and Betfred (take up to 6/4) Weston 1pt @ 16/5 with Bet365, Paddy Power, Betfair and Betfred (Hills are 100/30 and take up to 9/4) Truro 1pt @ 11/5 with Skybet, William Hill and BetVictor (take up to 6/4) Eastbourne 2pts @ 6/4 with everyone (take up to 11/10) Scarborough 1pt @ 5/2 with William Hill (13/5 with Paddys and Betfair and take up to 2/1) Stourbridge 1pt @ 2/1 with Betfred (take up to 6/4)

They did this for the Friday of Goodwood as well. It was a tie in with Racing TV to help interest in the other races taking place on that day.

We have reached the end of the Aussie Jumps season and we have a cracking all jumps card at Ballarat to conclude the season. The big race is the Grand National and its great we have Stern Idol attempting to win another big one. Hopefully it will be a profitable end to the season. Race 1 Cadre Du Noir and Sing For Peace come up against one and another again with it being 1 all at the moment. Last time at Casterton it was Cadre Du Noir who finished in front, but if Sing For Peace hadn't made a mess of the last I think he might have finished in front of him. He was staying on to great affect that day and whilst that was over 3500m I think the less sharp track and the more testing conditions will see Sing For Peace come out on top again. He only just missed out on hurdling debut at Warrnambool and then had Cadre Du Noir behind him when attempting to make all at Pakenham over 3500m in heavy ground. He clearly stays well and I think they will be bolder with him again as they were at Pakenham where he was beaten by an impressive performance from Nassak Diamond. Noonday Gun (ex Richard Hannan) ran really well on the flat after a long absence earlier this month and he was given a very quiet trial over hurdles just after that. He jumps well and isn't without a chance. Zegalo didn't run his race last time at Sandown, but the 5L to The Cunning Fox (also won the Sandown race) at Pakenham in a maiden was decent as he had Schabau and Pearl Rain in behind. The 3rd has won a maiden since and Pearl Rain who reopposes had shown useful maiden form prior to that run. He shouldn't be a double figure price especially as he likes a heavy track. I think Maserartie Bay also has a chance here. He was sent off a stupidly short price at Casterton on his hurdles debut and the jockey's allowed Texas Hold'em to build up a massive lead (as I thought they might). He was the only one to get close to him, but the effort told and he only got within 1.25L of the winner. I think that was a very good effort in the circumstances. A competitive race, but this does look to be Sing For Peace's best chance of getting a hurdle win. He wasn't suited by Casterton and I think they will make more use of him here. I also want Maserartie Bay covered as I think that run last time is better than it is being valued because people will just look at the fact he was beaten at odds on. Given Zegalo is a double figure price I will have a small e/w bet on him as well because his Pakenham run gives him a good chance in this and I'm happy to pass over the Sandown effort. Sing For Peace 2pt @ 11/4 with Paddy Power, William Hill, Betfair and Betfred Maserartie Bay 0.5pt @ 5/1 with Paddy Power, Betfair and Betfred Zegalo 0.5pts e/w @ 12/1 with Paddy Power, William Hill, Betfair and Betfred Race 2 Chimed is favourite for this and he used to be trained by Sir Michael Stoute over here. He was a maiden for him though and actually only lost his maiden tag 3 weeks ago when bolting up at Hamilton over 2200m. He was back there for a hurdle trial 9 days later and I wasn't overly impressed by his jumping as he did jump out to his right. Topspin is only 4 and broke his maiden tag on the flat back in June. His hurdle trial was solid in July and he stays well as proven by his good 3rd over 3200m at Terang last time. I think they will make plenty of use of him to make full advantage of his stamina. He had Pearlman in behind in 4th at Terang and Wilewink was further back in 7th. He has the best hurdles form in the race given he has finished 2nd 4 times and 3rd once in his 5 starts over hurdles. He tried handicapping last time and bumped into Point Nepean at Pakenham. He deserves a win, but I'm going to side with the youth and go with Topspin. Topspin 1pt @ 11/4 with Paddy Power and Betfair Race 3 I'm usually a little apprehensive of backing maiden winners going into handicaps for the first time, but Nassak Diamond was really impressive when winning on hurdles debut at Pakenham. She bolted 9L clear of Sing For Peace and Cadre Du Noir over 3500m on a Heavy 9 track. We know she stays well as landed the Jericho Cup over 4600m in December and everything does really look like it will be in her favour here. Alibey is also 1/1 over hurdles, but he only beat Cadre Du Noir by 2L and Nassak Diamond is the better flat horse as well. Hit The Road Jack was a little bit disappointing for me at Sandown last time as he was well beaten by The Cunning Fox when 3rd. He does look the main danger though as he won a very good race at Flemington prior to that and he was too strong for Wilewink on his hurdles debut. The other 3 aren't totally out of it either and Maatsuyker won at Casterton a couple of weeks ago with Schabau back in 3rd. He got the dream run that day though and he might find it tough giving the weight away to Nassak Diamond. Nassak Diamond 2pts @ 6/4 with Betfred and William Hill Race 4 The trainer of Point Nepean works for Racing.com and has put his tips for the meeting on their website and has put him up to reverse form with The Cunning Fox. I just don't see it myself though. He was well beaten by 12L and what didn't help was his poor jumping especially going down the back. If he does jump better than that will help, but even so I think The Cunning Fox will take out the feature hurdle on the card. Texas Hold'em is unlikely to get away with building a 50L lead against this lot and Fabalot likes to front run as well so there is going to be a strong pace set. Right Now bolted up at Pakenham before looking like he didn't stay in the Grand National Hurdle. He has a place chance as does Freddy The Eagle who also looked like he didn't see it out at Sandown. Race 5 This isn't a strong race, but I have to take on Duke Of Bedford at odds on. He looked set for a really good season when beating Tom Foolery here in April, but it hasn't worked for him since. He hated Warrnambool when 3rd on his next start. I was then confident he would win at Hamilton and he somehow managed to get himself beat. He was then 4th at Sale and hasn't run over fences since. He had a prep run on the flat a couple of weeks and I guess a freshen up might see him back in the form he showed in April, but he offers no value at all. At the prices I think Clever looks a really good chance. He had lost his form over hurdles and didn't run that well over them at Casterton a couple of weeks ago either, but what stands out for me was his chasing debut at Pakenham. Blandford Lad went off odds on and ended up winning, but I think Clever would have won had he not unseated at the last. He didn't really make a mistake either and looked a soft unseat, but he had cruised into the race and looked to be just in front when they took off. The extra 100m should be an issue and the likely heavy track the same. Not Usual Dream wouldn't be without a chance down in grade, but top weight Historic looks the other winning chance. I thought he ran well at Casterton a couple of weeks ago when fitness probably told in the closing stages as he faded into 3rd. That run should bring him on and he's down 200m in trip as well. I will save on him and hope to get Duke Of Bedford beat. Clever 2pts @ 7/2 with Paddy Power, William Hill, Betfair and Betfred Historic 1pt @ 7/2 with Paddy Power and Betfair Race 6 I really fancied Stern Idol to win the Grand National last year, but he ran way below par and ended up pulling up. I don't think it was stamina that got him beat and I think he will stay this trip. Given how easily he has won the Crisp over 4200m the last two years at a stiff track like Sandown I just don't see how he won't stay 4500m on a flatter track. This is a handicap though unlike the Crisp so that does make things a little trickier because of the weight he has to give away, but he deserves the weight and I think he can win. Bell Ex One was disappointing behind him in the Crisp last time and there was no obvious excuse. He has the ability to run well though so a return to form would see him with place claims. Rockstar Ronnie ran his best race for ages in the Crisp and I can't really understand why he is such a big price on the back of that. We know he stays well given he landed the Grand Annual last May and whilst he didn't enjoy heavy in the UK, that hasn't been an issue in Australia. Mighty Oasis has had a busy, but very good season. He was unluckly to lose at Casterton last time and it still hurts a bit now that he did. He's a little below the top level though. As mentioned above I thought Blandford Lad wouldn't have won at Pakenham if Clever had stayed in the race and I don't fancy him. Chasing newcomers can win this race and we have a couple of good hurdlers in Port Guillaume and The Good Fight making their chasing debuts here. The former was a bit disappointing I thought in the Grand National Hurdle as he was only 4th. He was also 50L behind Stern Idol in a steeple trial, although clearly he ran his own race in that. The Good Fight ran really well to finish 2nd at Sandown and if he can repeat that over fences then he can go well. Leaderboard was in between those two in 3rd at Sandown and has won a chase at Warrnambool and finished 3rd in the Thackeray. He can go well, but looks a little below top class. I am going to put Stern Idol in a double with The Cunning Fox in the feature hurdle and I will have a small e/w single on Rockstar Ronnie as he should be 2nd in the betting for me based on the Crisp run. The Cunning Fox/Stern Idol 1pt double @ 5/2 with Betfred Rockstar Ronnie 0.5pts e/w @ 14/1 with everyone

Altrincham v Eastleigh Eastleigh are the only team to have won all 3 games so far after winning for us on Tuesday night. I thought they looked fairly comfortable as well against Solihull, so whilst going 4/4 is going to be tough, they are too big a price to do so against an Altrincham side who haven't got near the heights of last season yet. They won for us against Woking which was deserved, but Woking as we know are poor. They were really put in their place at Sutton last Saturday though and whilst they bounced back to win on Tuesday it was only against Maidenhead who have lost every game so far. Eastleigh are playing the better for me and the price is way too big. Rochdale v Forest Green Having scored 7 goals in their first 2 games I was surprised to see FGR create very little against Barnet on Tuesday night. They only had 3 shots in the game and whilst Barnet are clearly a better team than Aldershot and Boston I would have still expected more. In hindsight odds against on them to win last week at Boston was an absolute gift, but you always have to hold a bit of caution in the opening games of the season. This will be tougher, but I think they are a better side than their hosts. Rochdale created little themselves against York on Tuesday and only had 1 shot on target. For me they are being overrated but the bookies so far this season and that means FGR are value to get the 3 points. Brackley v Curzon Ashton Brackley have not done a great deal so far this season. I know they won at Chester last Saturday, but it was a poor game which neither deserved to win although Chester did create more chances with Brackley only having 3 shots. Granted they have had a tough start to the season having played Scunthorpe and Kidderminster as well, but here they host one of the other teams to have won all 3 games so far this season. I accept this is probably a step up in quality of opponent for them having beaten Needham, South Shields and Oxford, but they are doing well and for me offer a bit of value. Bishops Stortford v Stamford The 3rd team I hope can make it 4/4 on Saturday is Stamford. I took them on last week and whilst it was only a penalty that beat Stourbridge it was clearly a top effort to do so. Their hosts are favs for the title with Telford having a spluttering start, but I just don't see it myself and the away side are value to make it 12 points for the season. Prices from Friday 11am Eastleigh 1pt @ 5/2 with Bet365, Skybet and William Hill (take up to 2/1) Forest Green 1pt @ 9/4 with Paddy Power and Betfair (take up to 7/4) Curzon Ashton 1pt @ 23/10 with Paddy Power and Betfair (take up to 9/5) Stamford 1pt @ 21/10 with Betfred (take up to 7/4)

National League North I have to say I have been very impressed with Kidderminster so far this season and I think I got them wrong pre season. I know it is very early stages, but I have not really been that happy with any of the 4 picks so far so want Kiddie on side. I know Scunthorpe are unbeaten so far as well, but I would favour Kiddie over them so whilst if they won it wouldn't give us a profit on the division I want to add them now as I think they will only get shorter. Kidderminster 1pt @ 9/2 with Bet365 and William Hill

Eastleigh v Solihull Moors There has been a bit of a move for the home side and I'm not surprised as I would have them favs to win this game. They have won both games so far and I thought it was an impressive victory on Saturday over Fylde. To come from 2 down and win 4-2 took some doing and the opening Fylde goal came against the run of play. I was surprised that so many Twitter content producers had Eastleigh to go down in their 1-24 lists because any side that has Paul McCallum in it isn't going to be relegated. Solihull beat Maidenhead on Saturday, but lost to Fylde on the opening day and with those teams being the ones Eastleigh have beaten I think they have the edge. With them being at home as well it just adds to the fact I think they should be favs. Woking v Dagenham & Redbridge Made good money so far opposing Woking and hopefully it can be the same on Tuesday night. Obviously Saturday's game was overshadowed by the horrible tackle from Kelly-Evans on Olley which left him with a broken leg, but they never looked like getting anything from the game. It also made it two games on the bounce they have ended up with 10 men. Dagenham are unbeaten so far with a win against Wealdstone and a draw against Rochdale. Now they had a lower xG than their opponents in both games and against Rochdale they only had 3 shots, the first of which was their goal in the 55th minute. That worries me slightly, but they are playing a lesser side here and one that just looks a bit lost at the moment. Hopefully Dagenham can take advantage of that. York v Rochdale Speaking of Rochdale I am taking them on here. Clearly they were a bit unlucky to only get a point on Saturday, but this should be their first proper test as they only had Boston on the opening day. York have looked very solid so far in their 2 games against Southend and Tamworth. For me this has been priced up based on last season's form, because I just don't get how Rochdale can be favs for the game. I'd only make York slights favs given they are at home, but that means there is juice in the price and they do look a different beast from last season. Salisbury v Truro I was pretty negative on Truro before the season started, but to their credit they have done well so far. They lost to Dorking 2-1 on the opening day, but gave a good account and then had a superb win yesterday at Maidstone. Salisbury have done well also and will be happy with 4 points from their first two games, but again I just can't see why Truro should be such a big price and they look value to pick up 3 more points. Prices from 8pm Sunday Eastleigh 1pt @ 19/10 with Bet365 and William Hill (take up to 6/4) Dagenham 1pt @ 21/10 with Bet365, Paddy Power, William Hill and Betfair (Betfred are 11/5 and take up to 7/4) York 1pt @ 9/5 with Paddy Power, Betfair and Betfred (365 are 19/10 and take up to 11/8) Truro 1pt @ 14/5 with Betfair and Paddy Power (take up to 2/1)

Yes I’ve backed Dagenham although wouldn’t totally agree they’ve looked promising and it’s more about wanting to take Woking on again. They only had 3 shots against Rochdale and the first shot was the goal on 55 minutes. Rochdale should have won the game. No surprise Woking haven’t scored yet as they look very weak up front.

Boston v Forest Green Rovers Rochdale were on my shortlist last league and they had a very easy time of it when beating Boston 3-0. Boston looked out of their depth a bit and I think they could find it tough in the early stages of the season. I think Forest Green should be odds on to beat. They scored 3 good goals against Aldershot and whilst they also conceded 3 times, I saw enough to think they should be in play-off contention at least. Odds against looks too big. Woking v Gateshead Some crazy opening prices on Gateshead as somehow bookies priced them up at 2/1. Woking's best chances against Altrincham came before Altrincham had a man sent off and they created very little after going a goal down. Granted Gateshead were helped from some woeful Ebbsfleet defending, but it was still an impressive performance to beat them so easily. Whilst the fancy prices are long gone I still think there is some juice in the price. Alfreton v Kings Lynn Kings Lynn were very impressive on the opening day in their win over Warrington and it backed my ante-post thoughts that they could be in for a good season. They look too big a price here against an Alfreton side who struggled at Southport on the opening day. Granted Alfreton do tend to be hard to beat at home, but at over 2/1 it is worth taking a chance on the away side getting another 3 points. Needham Market v Southport Speaking of Southport they are worth backing to win again on Saturday. Needham Market look set for a season of struggle and they found it tough against Curzon last Saturday. Southport are fancied to do well this season by plenty and I certainly think they have the squad to be looking at a play-off sport. They ought to be too strong for their hosts. Oxford City v Darlington I thought Darlington did well against Kidderminster last week despite losing 2-1 and it was a fairly even game. City on the other hand scored an injury time equalizer against Marine and whilst they passed the ball around a lot (451 passes attempted against 186), there wasn't a huge amount of end product. I think Darlington are too big a price to win this as I reckon they can finish above City this season. Aveley v Tonbridge Angels Whilst it was a wonder goal which gave Welling the win over Aveley last week, the home side certainly deserved the victory and it backs up my theory that they could be in for a struggle this season. Tonbridge had a cracking start to the season beating Weymouth 3-2 and it was a deserved win as well. On the back of that I think they are too big a price for this. Walton and Hersham v Merthyr When I was looking last night at the games Merthyr were 7/4 to win this, but that price went at 3.30am! Still I think there is something in the price on the back of 2 good victories. Walton lost 1-0 to Totton on the opening day, but Totton played just over half the game with 10 men. They did beat Marlow 3-0 on Tuesday night, but Marlow are expected to struggle this season and Merthyr will be a very different test. Prices from 11am Friday Forest Green Rovers 2pts @ 6/5 with Bet365 and Betfred (take up to 10/11) Gateshead 1pt @ 5/4 with Skybet, Ladbrokes, Betfred and Coral (Hills are 13/10 and take up to 11/10) Kings Lynn 1pt @ 21/10 with Bet365, Paddy Power and Betfair (Betfred are 11/5 and take up to 7/4) Southport 2pts @ 13/10 with Bet365, Skybet, Paddy Power, William Hill and Betfair (Betfred are 11/8 and take up to Evs) Darlington 1pt @ 13/5 with Betfair, BetVictor, Betfred, Skybet and Paddy Power (Hills are 14/5 and take up to 2/1) Tonbridge 1pt @ 2/1 with everyone (Betfred are 21/10 and take up to 7/4) Merthyr 1pt @ 11/8 with Paddy Power, Betfair, Betfred and Bet365 (take up to 6/5)

Out of luck last week with the 2 bets, but still in profit for the season with 2 meetings to go. We were meant to be going to Colraine on Sunday, but the meeting has gone to Casterton which is great news as we get to see the hedge fences again. 3 hurdles and 1 over the hedge fences to look forward to. Race 1 Ought to be a two horse race between Cadre Du Noir and Sing For Peace. The latter finished 3L in front of him when they were 2nd and 3rd at Pakenham and then Cadre Du Noir has since finished a close 2nd to Schabau over course and distance last time. Prices seem about right to me given that 3L margin so happy to sit it out with no edge in the prices. No bet Race 2 Maserartie Bay is very short to make a winning hurdling debut in this 0-114 contest. Was poor on the flat last time, but does have by far the best flat form and is the most likely winner, but I will have a small bet on Texas Hold'Em. He built a massive lead here 3 starts ago and they couldn't catch him although the riders were more aware of it here last time and he was only 3rd. I just wonder though now facing different opposition in a weaker race if he might be able to get away with it again. Chances are he wont, but I think at the prices there is a bit of value in the hope that he can. Texas Hold'Em 0.5pts @ 11/2 with Bet365 Race 3 This looks very tricky with Dubai Moon, Maatsuyker and Schabau looking to have the race between them. Schabau did clock a slightly faster time than Maatsuyker's race here last time when winning the maiden hurdle and the Maatsuyker was 2nd in the handicap hurdle. Dubai Moon went too quick in the ground at Pakenham last time and he should be better suited to this better ground. I don't have a strong view so happy to leave alone. No bet Race 4 I honestly don't understand the prices here. Mighty Oasis beat Tolemac by a comfortable 2L over course and distance last time and whilst Mighty Oasis has to carry 1kg more I think he will confirm the form. Unlike the previous time he ran here, he wasn't pestered for the lead so was able to go at his own pace and he jumped the hedge fences for fun. The fact the meeting has moved should benefit him and I just think it will be the same result as 2 weeks ago. Crosshill is better off at the weights as well with Mighty Oasis, but he had a gift at Pakenham last time which he couldn't take and he continues to frustrate. Mighty Oasis 3pts @ 13/10 with Bet365

Altrincham v Woking Things off the field are not looking great at Woking as it has been mentioned that they wont see out the season if they don't find new investment and they are up for sale for a pound. Maybe the seriousness has been overplayed, but clearly there isn't much money at the club. They struggled last season and I think they could be in for a struggle this season as well. They look poor up front as well and Alty look solid favourites to beat them on the opening day. As I mentioned in the ante-post preview I think Alty can have another good season and be in and around the play-offs again. They look in much better shape going into the season opener and hopefully they can get off to a winning start. Darlington v Kidderminster Clearly Kidderminster are likely to go well this season, but as mentioned in the ante-post preview I worry about goals for them and signing Ben Beresford on loan doesn't strike me as a title winning signing given he featured for two relegated sides in Gloucester and Banbury last season. If I'm right about Darlington having a good season then they are overpriced for this game so I'm happy to take a chance on them wining this. Kings Lynn v Warrington The home side should be in for a much better season this time around and they look very strong up front. I don't really see Warrington being up to a great deal this season and this is the sort of game that strikes me that would see Kings Lynn odds on if it was taking place later in the season. Hampton v Hornchurch A lot of change at Hampton this season and they faded very badly out of a play-off spot near the end of last term as well. It looks to me like there isn't a great deal of money at the club and they went for a cheap option when it came to a manager. They could struggle, whereas Hornchurch were different class to the rest of the Isthmian Premier last season and I they should be up to doing well this season as well back at this level for the first time in a while. I'd make them favs here. Hemel Hempstead v Salisbury Salisbury might find it tough this season and with Hemel being one of the ante-post picks I would be hoping they can pick up 3 points here. They certainly have the stronger side on paper and hopefully they can prove it on the opening day. Welling v Aveley Aveley were a big surprise last season after back-to-back promotions and they really impressed me. They fully deserved their high finish, but this season I think it will be very different as the squad looks weaker and I think they will struggle. Rod Stringer came in and transformed Welling in the final months of last season to see them survive and he wouldn't have hung around if he didn't think they could have a good season. He's got a solid looking side together and this game for me has been purely priced up on what happened last season. Welling not even being favourites to start with is just crazy and that is why I make them the best bet of the opening weekend. Hitchin v Bromsgrove (Southern Prem Central) Hitchin were relegated, but got a late reprieve and it might just be a one season reprieve as they look set to struggle. Bromsgrove should do OK this season and will be hopeful of picking up a nice 3 points to get the season up and running. Bishops Stortford v Alvechurch (Southern Prem Central) As I mentioned in the ante-post preview I don't really understand why Stortford are at the head of the market. Last season they almost gave up before the season began after being placed in the National League North and they duly finished detached at the bottom. To go from that to challenging for a title is going to take some doing and I think they will be happy with a solid season. Alvechurch have been backed for the title and I can understand why as they have made some decent signings. They look a big price to win this game and it wouldn't surprise me if they finished above their hosts come April. Wimborne v Hanwell (Southern Prem South)/Ashton v Blyth (Northern Prem) Hanwell only just survived relegation last season, but they will find it tough again this term. Wimborne are one of the ante-post picks and I'm hoping they can continuing their promotion winning form from last season. Blyth look in a right mess after relegation and have been awful in pre-season with a team that barely looks up to standard. Ashton should be up there and will be expecting to start their season with a win. Prices from 9pm Friday Altrincham 2pts @ 5/4 with Bet365 and Betfred (take up to Evs) Darlington 1pt @ 5/2 with Bet365, Paddy Power, Betfair and Betfred (take up to 2/1) Kings Lynn 1pt @ 6/5 with Skybet, Paddy Power and Betfair (Hills are 5/4 and take up to Evs) Hornchurch 1pt @ 7/4 with Betfred, Paddy Power and Betfair (take up to 6/4) Hemel Hempstead 1pt @ 6/5 with Betfred, Paddy Power and Betfair (Hills are 11/8 and Skybet are 13/10 and take up to Evs) Welling 2.5pts @ 17/10 with William Hill and Skybet (take up to 5/4) Bromsgrove 1pt @ 8/5 with Betfred (take up to 5/4) Alvechurch 1pt @ 23/10 with Bet365, William Hill and Betfred (take up to 15/8) Wimborne/Ashton 1pt double 2.69/1 with Betfred

Dorchester made me plenty in the final few weeks of the season and they just missed out from being a pick to be honest. The one thing I will say is the league is stronger this time around.

National League I had hoped that Oldham might have been put in as favourites, but annoyingly the bookies were on the ball with putting Barnet at the head of the market and even then they have shortened from the opening price. They are still the main picks though as on paper at least I think they have the edge on the rest of the field. Chesterfield dominated last season, but Barnet were best of the rest in finishing 2nd. They had a nightmare in the play-offs though as they just didn't turn up against Solihull and were well beaten. Manager Dean Brennan knew what he needed to do to improve the squad and he didn't hang around either as he got his business done nice and early. Most of his signings were done within the first few weeks of pre-season and that is going to help the squad gel in the early stages of the season. Key for me also is that Brennan has improved Barnet each season and if he does again, and on paper it looks like he has, then they win the title. I'd have liked a bigger price obviously, but I still think there is some juice in it to make them worth backing. Next up I am putting up Southend. I had them on my radar, but then the takeover took a very long time to actually go through and at there was a big danger they weren't even going to start the season. They were also under an embargo again so they couldn't sign anyone. Finally with the takeover done it means the club can move on and progress. Last season despite all their issues they would have been in the play-offs had they not had the 10 point deduction. That was a quite incredible achievement from everyone involved in the playing side of things and you would expect now things have settled down they should be able to kick on and be in contention for a possible title bid. The new owners have shown they aren't afraid to spend money on players and whilst they are obviously behind others in when they could actually start buying players, I am hopeful it wont stop them. They might have a slowish start, but that wouldn't worry me and they are a side who can get better as the season goes on. The final bet is York. I wasn't originally going to put them up as the owner got way too involved with the playing side of things last season and it hindered them badly. I'm hopeful he might have learnt his lesson and he can let the man he hired a few weeks before last season ended to get on with his job. He kept York up and given the style of play he had whilst in charge of Woking, I am expecting them to score plenty of goals. He has raided his former club to get a couple of players including the prolific Ollie Pearce who deserves a chance at this level. Worthing did concede plenty at times as well so that would be a small concern, but I think at the price it is worth taking a chance that they can outscore their opponents more often than not. I certainly they have more potential than some shorter than them in the betting. Gateshead and Altrincham were close to being bets and I will keep a watching brief on both of them. I don't pay too much attention to pre-season results, but Gateshead have had an impressive pre-season. If they can translate that into the actual campaign then they could be outside contenders again. As far as I know the issue with the ground which stopped them taking part in the play-offs still hasn't been sorted and that could affect how things go on the pitch, but they are worth keeping an eye on to see how the start the season. Altrincham have lost their key player, but the manager makes a very good point when he says they will be more balanced this season rather than building the team around one player. That might mean we some improvement from them this season and given the big improvement last season they are another team to keep a close eye on. Forest Green have had a torrid last couple of seasons and they should be able to stop the rot this time around. They have made some very good signings and better than I thought they would do. It has been a long time since Steve Cotterill last managed in the league and things have changed a lot since then which would be one concern albeit a small one. At this stage they strike me as more play-offs than title. Sutton are the other relegated side and there has been a massive overhaul of the squad. Given that it is hard to know how well they will go, but they don't strike me as being possible title winners. When Oldham hired Mickey Mellon I thought he would improve them, but I'm not sure there was that much improvement from when Unsworth was in charge. They were pretty hopeless towards the end of the season and they never impressed me whenever I watched one of their games. I just have my doubts about them going into this season and maybe Mellon wasn't the good choice I thought he was. He will be under big pressure if they don't get off to a good start. Dagenham & Redbridge have seen new investment, but season after season they are just so unpredictable and never seem to put consistent performances in regardless of how good the squad is or who the manager is. I can see more of the same this season given the look of their squad. Rochdale have also seen new investment and I thought they overachieved a bit last season given how light on numbers they were. I can see them being in a play-off battle this time around. The Racing Post put up Hartlepool to win the league and I just don't see it myself. Things aren't great off the pitch and the new manager will be under pressure after it all went wrong for him at Woking last season. If they do win the title I will have got them very wrong, but I can see them being mid-table. That's the top half of the betting covered and I have two more sides to mention. Maidenhead come in for support after they got the money from the sell on clause, but they haven't invested it on the squad at this stage so I think money will go astray. It will help Devonshire keep them up though. Finally I think Braintree could be in for a better season than people are predicting. They are 2/1 to finish in the top half and I think they can. They have made some really good signings, especially up front and they wont have come cheap either so money must be being spent. I'm hoping they can surprise a few and get into the top 12. National League North Kidderminster have been backed into favouritism, but whilst they have a decent squad I still worry about how they will do in front of goal which has been a big issue the last couple of seasons and I'm not sure Phil Brown has sorted it out. Brown initially did well and I thought he would keep them up, but it wasn't to be in the end and I do wonder how he will get on at this level. The weakness of the league should help him at least. Scunthorpe should have walked away with the title, but the concern I had about them having the right manger proved to be right and he was way out of his depth. They have had to cut costs and the new manager is a big unknown so I can't have them winning the title at all. I was very surprised the Racing Post put them up as the bet in the league. Brackley are always up there and no doubt they will finish in the play-offs again and Chorley should do well also. Onto the bets. Chester are the main bets. They were a bit disappointing last season, but I think they look in better shape this time around. Getting Willoughby back could be key for them. He was never really given a chance at Oldham last season and given how many goals he scored for Chester the season before the hope is he can find that form again and his goals can help them get promoted. They have always been tight at the back so expect them to be like that again. The Radcliffe managers are playing down their chances this season, but given how they dominated the league below last season I think they aren't being truthful about how well they could go. They have strengthened the side well and whilst they are a very different side to Tamworth I wouldn't put it past them doing what they did and achieve back to back titles. Darlington and Kings Lynn were both surprisingly in relegation battles. Both suffered from having the wrong managers and in the former's case then hiring the wrong manager. Both finally got it right on that front though and they worked there way to safety. Steve Watson at Darlington is a manager I like and he had a big task on his hands to sort them out after the mess they were in, but he did that and they were looking good towards the end of the season. Given how weak the league is and he should get them involved at the right end of the season. The same goes for Kings Lynn who also had some fresh investment last season which should help them this. National League South Marc White thinks his Dorking side are the ones to beat and they will bounce straight back up. I'm not so sure myself and I often thought he looked out of his depth last season. I know he has won the title before, but I just get the feeling they could do with a change of manager. The squad looks decent and they should be in the play-off picture, but they look on the short side to me. Boreham Wood do make plenty of appeal. It was a big shock that they went down last season and a change of manager is exactly what both parties needed. They've got Oxford City's manager in charge and that looks a good move as he did very well with them and now he has a bigger budget at his hands I expect him to do a really good job. The squad looks strong and they have everything in place to go straight back up. Maidstone were the big winners last season in the FA Cup and the money they have made from that run should stand them in good stead this time around. I think the Cup run distracted them slightly in the league, but they did much better than I thought they would and given the manager struggled when he took over in the National League, he proved last season that he is a very good manager. The squad looks capable to put in a decent title bid as well. Eastbourne have been big market movers as they were last season. Last term I was happy to leave them alone as I suspected that they didn't have that good a squad and they really struggled on their first season as a full time team. They sacked their manager and got in Fylde's former manager who won them the North title and that looks a good bit of business. He kept them up last season and he looks to have signed really well ahead of this term. I think they are set for a good season and this season I very much want to be with them. At a huge price I had to have a little on Hemel Hempstead. I'm in two minds about their manager, but what he has done is put a very good squad together. If they had been 20/1 I'd probably would have left them alone, but they should do much better than their big odds suggest so I'm happy to play. Northern Premier The squad Macclesfield have put together is incredible, the only issue is they have a complete clown in charge. Getting Robbie Savage in reminds me of when Glenn Tamplin was basically manager at Billericay. Billericay managed to win the league despite him and I suspect that Macclesfield should do the same. I clearly can't put them up as a single bet, but they are worth putting in accas/multiple's. Betfred have are the only ones to offer e/w betting and I have had a small bet on Guiseley as they look set to go well this season, but with it only being the first 2 and with just one bookie it won't be an official bet. Southern Premier Central Got this lead badly wrong last year as thought Coalville couldn't finish out of the three and they could never get going. No Coalville to worry about as they have dropped out of the league and I think AFC Telford are the team to be with. They struggled a little after relegation last season and it was the slow start that cost them because if you take the first 10 out of it then they would have won the title by 6 points and it was another 8 points back to 3rd. They really ought to make it up at the 2nd attempt as long as their is no hangover from the play-off loss. I can't believe they are the same price as Bishop's Stortford as I don't fancy them at all after relegation and will need at least a season back at this level after a tough time of things last season. I can't believe the price of Stourbridge who are massively over-priced at 33/1. Now Stourbridge have often flattered to decive, but this is the first time in a while where they look capable of challenging at the right end of the table. The fact they persuaded their new manager to drop down a level from Rushall says a lot and he did a hell of a job to get a club like Rushall promoted and then survive in National League North. He's put a good looking squad together and it will be pretty disappointing if he doesn't have them fighting for promotion. To have them as the 3rd biggest priced team is just wrong in my view. Halesowen did OK in their first season back at this level and I thought they improved for getting former Kidderminster boss Russel Penn in charge. Now he has had a summer to put his own squad together he should be capable of getting them to finish high in the table so I am happy to cover them as well. Southern Premier South I have had to cover my own side Gloucester here because we look to have put a squad together that should be finishing top 3. I have concerns about the manager as I'm not sure how strong he is tactically, but he now has a team that he can set up in an attacking way so hopefully he can get them playing on the front foot rather than being negative all the time. The e/w price went, but at 5/1 I am happy to save on them. The main bet has to be AFC Totton though whose squad look so strong. There was certainly no fancy prices about them this pre season as they finished 2nd to Chesham last season and they look even stronger on paper this time around. Last season they dropped some silly points and as good as Chesham were in some ways Totton probably should have won the title. Obviously Charlie Austin is the headline act and them signing him probably meant the price was even shorter than it would have been and I'm not sure they even need him anyway. They ought to be hard to beat. I've also covered Merthyr and Wimborne. Merthyr had a good season and crucially have kept their leading scorer last from last season so they look over priced. Wimborne meanwhile got promotion last season and did so in impressive fashion. They clearly have a bit of cash and Tim Sills has impressed as manager so a small bet on them also appeals at a big price. Isthmian League Honestly I found this league tricky this season. Billericay really should have done better last season than they did, but I will give them a 2nd chance because their squad is clearly still one of the best in the division. I'm happy to split stakes on them and Chatham who finished 2nd last season and have made some eye-catching signings in a bid to go one place better. Cray Valley Paper Mills had an incredible season last term with that superb FA Cup run and then losing just once on their way to the title. They might just be capable of finishing high up again as they look to have a decent squad and are a big price at 66/1. Prices from 5pm Monday National League Barnet 2.5pts @ 9/2 with Ladbrokes, Coral and Betfred Southend 0.5pts e/w @ 12/1 with Bet365 York 0.5pts e/w @ 18/1 with Bet365 Braintree top half finish 2pts @ 2/1 with Skybet, William Hill and BetVictor National League North Chester 1pt e/w @ 8/1 with Betfred Radcliffe 0.5pts e/w @ 16/1 with Bet365 and William Hill Darlington 0.5pts e/w @ 18/1 with Bet365, William Hill and Betfred Kings Lynn 0.5pts e/w @ 33/1 with William Hill and BetVictor National League South Maidstone 1.5pts @ 7/1 with Bet365 Boreham Wood 1.5pts @ 13/2 with William Hill Eastbourne 1pt e/w @ 20/1 with Betfred Hemel Hempstead 0.25pts e/w @ 66/1 with BetVictor Northern Premier Macclesfield to include in accas/multi bets but no value as a single. Only Betfred have an e/w market and I've had a 0.5pts e/w bet on Guiseley @ 20/1 with them. They are 33s at Bet365 win only. That will be an unofficial bet given its only with Betfred. Southern Premier Central AFC Telford 2pts @ 5/1 with Bet365 Stourbridge 1pt e/w @ 33/1 with Bet365 (was going to go 1.5pts e/w but I found it tricky to get on that amount without alerting the traders which I didn't want to do) Halesowen 0.5pts e/w @ 25/1 with Bet365 Southern Premier South AFC Totton 3ps @ 15/8 with Bet365 Gloucester City 1pt @ 5/1 with William Hill Merthyr 0.5pts e/w @ 25/1 with Bet365 Wimborne 0.5pts e/w @ 25/1 with William Hill Isthmian Premier Chatham 1pt @ 9/2 with Bet365 Billericay 1pt @ 11/2 with Bet365 Cray Valley PM 0.25pts e/w @ 66/1 with Bet365

Would be about 9th time lucky for Brackley if they go up this season. Lost count the amount of times they have finished in the play-offs. Aveley surprised me last season, but think they will be in a relegation battle this time around as they look much weaker.

2/2 last week which was obviously very pleasing. Just 3 meetings left now starting with the Crisp Steeplechase and the Grand National Hurdle at Sandown. Race 1 Stern Idol landed the Crisp Steeplechase last year and whilst the trip is probably at the end of stamina he should be good enough to win. As it isn’t a handicap he is hugely benefitted by the weights of the contest which is why he deserves to be a hot favourite. Bell Ex One has beaten him twice including over hurdles when he first moved to Australia and I put him up, but I struggle to see how he can beat him over fences at these weights unless the trip does have a bigger effect than I think it will. It is hard to see how anything else can win. No bet Race 3 These BM120 Hurdles have been pretty poor quality all season, but here we have 3 promising hurdlers coming from maiden wins. Hit The Road Jack did it well on hurdles debut at Warrnambool when beating Wilewink by 4.25L. What is even more impressive though was a couple of weeks ago he won the Flemington Cup which is a decent quality race over 2800m. The face that his top trainer is bringing back over hurdles for this suggests he thinks he could have a top class hurdler on his hands. Point Nepean was very impressive at Pakenham in a 0-114 hurdle beating Wilewink by 12L so in theory he does have the beating of the favourite, but I just wonder if the Heavy 9 track made the margin bigger and whilst respected I do prefer Hit The Road Jack. The Cunning Fox has already had his maiden win boosted as Schabau won for us last week although the winning time was 4 seconds slower than Point Nepean's and I'd make him 3rd choice of the three. Alakahan wouldn't be a complete no hoper, but he was really poor at Pakenham. I'm siding with Hit The Road Jack, but there might not be a great deal in it. Hit The Road Jack 1pt @ 6/4 with Bet365 Race 4 Really looking forward to the Grand National Hurdle as it looks a cracking contest. The potential new hurdling superstar Affluential is the favourite having won 6 races on the bounce in both codes. He has looked good in his 3 hurdles wins and he is up into this class for the first time. His trainer said he had kept him to the flat since so that he could protect his handicap mark and the winning run did come to an end last week at Warrnambool when just beaten by Freddy The Eagle and just in front Bell Ex One. Given how well he stays on the flat I'd imagine he should see out the 4200m. Freddy The Eagle was getting 5.5kgs that day and only gets 2kgs here. He did win well at Casterton last week, but hard to see him beating Affluential here. Leaderboard is probably a better hurdler at this stage, but the 3rd at Warrnambool in the Thackeray last time was still a fair effort behind Wil John. He has 3.25L to make up on Port Guillaume on their Australian Hurdle 1st and 2nd though and I don't think he will, indeed the victor that day is the selection. He looked to be struggling a little that day, but the further they went the better he was because all of a sudden in the home straight he was in front and going up to this trip looks set to be ideal. He's been kept ticking over with a couple of solid runs on the flat since, including when 6th behind Hit The Road Jack last time. Connections are very confident he can add this to his Australian Hurdle success and Port Guillaume does look the value against the favourite. You can't rule out Right Now who won at Pakenham a couple of weeks ago beating The Good Fight by 14L. That was impressive, but this looks tougher. Port Guillaume 1pt @ 16/5

Didn't pan out all that well last week although it was frustrating that Prismatic was a late scratching. Onto Casterton tomorrow where we have 3 jumps races. Race 1 Cadre Du Noir disappointed me a little last week when only 3rd at Pakenham as he was quite well beaten in the end. It might be that going onto better ground will see some improvement, but to me he didn't look the same horse who had impressed me in the trial. He might well win, but he is 1/2 and that looks short enough. He was only just in front of Whiskey Jack who has an e/w chance, but I am going to have a bet on Schabau who was 3rd in the shorter distance maiden at Pakenham last week. That was a decent run for his first hurdle start and he should improve on that. Like the favourite he has very good flat form and I just wouldn't have the two horses as far apart as they are in the betting so I'm happy to back Schabau to beat Cadre Du Noir. Schabau 1pt @ 5/2 with Bet365 Race 2 Texas Hold'em won the Hurdle here at the last meeting when getting a massive lead and Freddy The Eagle couldn't get to him by the line. I think he proved last week at Pakenham that it was a bit of a freak result. Freddy The Eagle is odds on for this which is partly based on his hurdles form, but I think mainly based on his flat win at Warrnambool on Tuesday. He beat Affluential and Bell Ex One which was a superb effort given the form both have been in over hurdles and on the flat in the case of the former. If he backs that up he is the most likely winner, but odds on doesn't appeal as value. Maatsuyker fell in the race here last time and it was out of shot because the winner was so far clear. He was just behind him in the betting so you would imagine he would have gone close as well. One of those will probably win as Bazini hasn't quite gone on from his good maiden win and was 7th behind Freddy The Eagle on Tuesday. I think the prices are right so its a no bet race for me. No bet Race 4 Guessing something must be up with Elvision as he wasn't even entered in this sadly. I put up Mighty Oasis here last time and he was given no peace up front with an outsider forcing him to go faster than he needed to and he did well to finish 2nd in the end behind the impressive The Mighty Spar. A week later he went to Warrnambool and ran a solid 4th in the Thackeray. He's got a lot of weight again, but I think he wins. Mustang Harry is 2nd in the betting after his 3rd at Warrnambool a month ago. It was a fair effort given he hadn't run over jumps in 2 years and he'd only had 1 prep run on the flat. There should be improvement to come you would think, but there needs to be from that form. Fort Charles was 3rd behind Mighty Oasis here last month and then was poor at Warrnambool. Last week he was a fair 2nd to Blandford Lad and in front of Crosshill again. He looks the other danger, but hopefully Mighty Oasis doesn't get the same pressure up front as last time because as long as that doesn't happen I think he can make all. Mighty Oasis 2pts @ Evs with Bet365

Back to Pakenham on Sunday for an all jumps card and whilst I wont be there this time, hopefully it will be more successful on the punt and add to the profits from Warrnambool. Race 1 A 0-114 Hurdle and the favourite is a hurdling newcomer in the shape of Point Nepean. He has been a very good flat horse and landed the Andrew Rasmden Stakes at Flemington in May 2022. He's not been seen much since then and ran poorly on his two starts last prep. He's had 3 hurdle trials and I don't think he has looked a natural over hurdles so odds on doesn't massively appeal for all he is the best flat horse in the race. The other unknown is he has yet to race on a heavy track. Wilewink is just behind him in the betting and he was 2nd for the 3rd time over hurdles last time. I can understand why they are sticking him in a handicap to try and get a win out of him and he has won on heavy on the flat. The problem for connections is they have bumped into Point Nepean which they can't have expected. Texas Hold'em caused a massive shock at Casterton last time after making the running and building a huge lead at one stage. He might try and repeat the tactics here, but rarely do horses get away with running like that twice. It should be between Point Nepean and Wilewink, but I don't think either offer any value. Point Nepean's class might be enough to see him home and therefore I am wary enough of him to think that backing Wilewink at the current price isn't big enough value to get involved. No bet Race 2 Pearl Rain sets a fair standard for the hurdling newcomers here. She was 2nd to Irish Butterfly last month with Willewink in 3rd and then Wilewink finished in front of her back at Warrnambool a couple of weeks later when they finished 2nd and 3rd behind Hit The Road Jack. She has won twice on a heavy track which could be crucial. The Cunning Fox heads the betting on his hurdling debut and he was 3rd in a BM78 at Morphettville last month which puts him ahead of most of these on flat form. He wasn't so good on Wednesday at Sandown though. I did like the way he jumped on his hurdles trial which is a plus. He has been out of the frame on all 3 starts on a heavy track. Dandruff has been running well on the flat and a low level and has trialled OK over hurdles. I think Schabau was ante-post favourite for the Melbourne Cup a few years ago after he came over from Germany and he has won some good races in Australia. He has lost his way on the flat though so jumping looks a last resort and I wasn't impressed with his hurdling in his trial. Pearlman was 4th behind Pearl Rain at Warrnambool so would have place claims as would stablemate Zegalo on hurdles debut. I am going to back Pearl Rain here to put her hurdling experience to good use and the wins on heavy ground are in her favour as well. Pearl Rain 1pt @ 2/1 with everyone Race 3 It didn't really work out for Cadre Du Noir over hurdles last year as he was 5th at 4/7 in the 3200m hurdle on this card and then he went to Coleraine and fell when still in contention at 2 out. This year on the flat he was just beaten into 7th in a G2 at Flemington and a G3 at Rosehill under Tom Marquand. I'd ignore the last two flat efforts as things didn't go his way. What was really impressive was his hurdle trial here last week. He really jumped well that day and if he can bring that to a proper race then he could be hard to beat. Sing For Peace ran really well on his hurdle debut at Warrnambool when he nearly closed down Right Now. He looks like the step up to 3500m is going to work a treat for him based on that. Nassak Diamond is the other one in the betting and he was very good over 3600m behind Affluential on the flat last time. He jumps well enough based on his hurdle trials and is a danger. I do respect both those, but I'm going to side with Cadre Du Noir as I really did love that trial. Cadre Du Noir 1pt @ 9/5 with Bet365, Paddy Power and Betfair Race 4 It is round 3 of the Prismatic v Fabalot battle and it is one win apiece. Fabalot was allowed a huge lead when he won and Prismatic couldn't make up the ground. A couple of weeks later the form was reversed and Prismatic ran out a very impressive winner by 7L. Fabalot had to give the winner 6kgs that day and it is just 2kgs here, but I still think Prismatic will win this. This race is over 3500m and whilst Fabalot has won over this trip that was a weaker contest at Casterton last May on a Soft 5. Here the ground will be at least a Heavy 8 I would imagine and the opposition is stronger and I just can't see him lasting if he goes blasting off again. Chains Of Honour has behind them in both races finishing 5th and 4th but beaten 11L both times. Apparently they've changed things up since his last run, but he's been a bit disappointing since his big win at the May Carnival. Alakahan was 3rd in the race Fabalot won and then went into the winner of 1 race a couple of weeks later and won impressively. I still think he needs to find more to beat Prismatic though and his heavy track form on the flat is not strong. It will be interesting to see how Dubai Moon gets on in his first handicap start as he has done well on the flat since his maiden win at Casterton, but I find it hard to see him beating Prismatic who should win if he is in the same form as last time. Prismatic 2pts @ 17/10 with Bet365 Race 5 A maiden chase and not a strong one. Blandford Lad is favourite on the basis of his hurdle form, but I wasn't really taken with his chase trial last month is I'm happy enough to take him on. Raise Your Sights was 2nd to Blood And Sand at Warrnambool which was a decent enough run in the context of this race. Fort Chales has been a little disappointing this season. He's running OK and the 3rd at Casterton was probably the best run of the season, but he didn't back it up at Warrnambool. He was one place in front of Crosshill at Casterton, but Crosshill had to give him 7.5kgs and they race of level weights here so he should reverse the form. Given his Irish form you have to say Crosshill has been disappointing, but he really should be favourite for this and it does look a great opportunity for him to break his maiden tag over fences. He was 5th in the Grand Annual, but only beaten 6.25L and then he was a 6L 3rd in the Australian Chase. The Casterton effort wasn't bad given the big weight and his chase form is above any of his rivals. I'm not sure he will get a better chance to win over fences. Crosshill 2pts @ 5/2 with Paddy Power and Betfair Race 6 It will be a huge shock if Stern Idol doesn't land the Mosstrooper. As this is a set weights contest it means he doesn't have to give lumps of weight away to his rivals and it should mean that he wins with ease. He won a trial here last week by 50L and he is a very short price for a very good reason. It was great to see Blood And Sand get his head in front at Warrnambool last time as he deserved that, but clearly this is tougher. Tom Foolery has really progressed as the season has gone and the 2nd to Wil John in the Thackeray last time was a good effort. He looks the most likely to finish 2nd to Stern Idol, but it should be a race to watch and enjoy the best chaser in Australia. No bet