Darran

Annoyingly Oddschecker doesn’t have the meeting on their site so I will just use Bet365 prices, but others will be betting in it. Race 1 Pure Deal has been backed for this in what is a tight betting market, but I will side with Custom Of The Sea as he looked like a promising sort in Ireland and with him winning on the flat last time he is clearly in good heart in Oz as well. Good race despite the 4 runners. Custom Of The Sea 1pt @ 9/5 with Bet365 Race 2 Credit Crunch has come out and he was put in as 2nd fav which surprised me and it means the price on Leaderboard has come in, but he has the potential to be useful and looks the best of these. Race 3 Betting has it between Jack Knows Best and Dubai Moon which is right for me and I would make the latter the fav so as he isn’t he is the bet. Dubai Moon 1pt @ 8/5 with Bet365 Race 4 I had sort of hoped that it would be possible to back both The Mighty Spar and Fabalot, but that isn’t the case and or me Fabalot is the one who is value. He had some very strong form over hurdles last season and brings the best hurdles form into the race. I’d have him as the market leader myself. Fabalot 1pt @ 13/5 Race 5 No surprise that Tom Foolery is the fav here given most of the horses in the race are the ones he beat last week. Technically this is a step up in grade, but I think the winner of the 0-114 race was much improved and given he pushed him close it was a strong piece of form. I’m surprised Budd Fox is 2nd in as I suspect he will need this. Not Usual Dream would be the bigger danger for me and Blood And Sand might outrun his odds. Tom Foolery 2pts @ 2/1 with Bet365 Race 6 Stern Idol should win this. A good run on the flat means he is in good form and this is his ideal trip and conditions. Rockstar Ronnie ought to be 2nd best, but no doubt this is being used as a prep for the Grand Annual. I am happy to back Leaderboard and Stern Idol in a double. Leaderboard and Stern Idol 1pt double @ 1.79/1 with Bet365

Yeah it was poor rides from those in behind as she’s a good horse and you can’t give a horse like her that big a margin, but it was a hell of a performance from her.

Off to Pakenham we go on Sunday for a whole jumps card and personally it has the extra bonus as I will actually be at Pakenham to watch the action and it should be a good card. Hopefully it can build on last weeks profits as well. To start with it will just be my notes and then I will add bets when the races are priced up. Race 1 Only 4 runners in this 1 jumps win hurdle. Custom Of The Sea has come from Joseph O’Brians and he made two starts over hurdles for him. He won impressively on debut in a maiden at Killarney last May and was then 2nd at Ballinrobe a few weeks later. Media Naranja was the horse who beat him that day and he is rated 122 at the moment and ran at The Festival. Since going to Oz he has had 3 flat runs and won the last of them at Ballarat so he is in good form. He has trialled a couple of times since to keep him ticking over and he ought to be capable of decent things over hurdles in Australia. Calvi beat Elementry at Warrnambool by 5.2L although the latter was pretty green that day and clearly benefitted from the experience when winning back there a couple of weeks later. It wouldn’t surprise me if he reverses the form as he could get an easy lead. Pure Deal was 3rd in a maiden at this meeting last year in a hot race and then he won his maiden at Warrnambool. He was very disappointing at Sandown on his next start and he hasn’t been seen since in a actual race. He has had plenty of trials and has won the 2 hurdles won he has had. Race 2 Aqulleon showed a bit of ability over hurdles in 2 starts last season when a 8.2L 3rd at Warrnambool in May and a 4.7L 4th at Sale in June. Well beaten in 3 flat starts so far this year. Gambu was 3rd at Warrnambool 2.7L behind Calvi and was then well beaten at the time when falling a couple of weeks later. 5.1L 4th last week wasn’t bad though. Huntley Castle was meant to run last week and I didn’t really fancy him that day and has only trialed OK over hurdles. Leaderboard won the Wellington Cup last January in New Zealand although well beaten in it last time this year. 5th only start over hurdles in NZ, but I was impressed with his hurdles trial last week. The Awesome Son did manage a 2nd at Coleraine last season, but his 2 starts either side of that weren’t great. Credit Crunch has been last in last 3 starts on the flat, but there were at Metro tracks. Didn’t overly impress in his jumping in his trial last week. Race 3 Affluential is a maiden on the flat, but could be a better hurdler based on his trial win last week. Dubai Moon won 4 on the bounce in about 2 weeks in January and February on the level. He was poor on his next 3 starts, but then looked good in a hurdle trial. Ran at Kyneton on Thursday and was a close 5th. Jack Knows Best won as a long odds on fav on the flat in February. He was then a good 3rd in a stronger race last month. Solid hurdles trial prior to that 3rd. This isn’t a strong race, but not sure Oz Legend or Sir Peter did enough on their hurdles debut to carry my money here. Race 4 The feature hurdle is the MJ Bourke and last year’s winner Blandford Lad tries to win it again. That was a good effort to just beat Aaunter Boy, but it was downhill from that last season. He has been last in his 2 flat runs this year although he did easily win a hurdle trial last week. I would add though that he looked like the only one who tried to win the race. Fabalot was 4th in the opening contest on this card last year and built on that to finish 2nd in the Galleywood finishing in front of Blandford Lad. After that he won at Casterton before running no sort of race the next time. He then bolted up in the JJ Houlahan on the final day of the season. Has had a couple of prep runs on the flat for this. Out And Dreaming was 2nd in this in 2022 but last hurdles run was in June that year. Had 1 flat run last year and 1 in February. Won a hurdle trial a month ago, but suspect he will need this. El Diez was a decent 2nd last week and runs pretty much every week, but suspect this will be a bit above him although he does have the fitness edge. The Might Spar won last time on the flat in New Zealand. He was also 7th in the New Zealand Cup in November. Won a maiden hurdle last year and then 3rd on his other hurdles start. Promising enough trial last week. Race 5 Not Usual Dream was 4th in this last season and then 4th in the Australian Steeple. He then won at Sale the following month. He was 2nd on the flat at Ballarat last week. Blood And Sand didn’t run that badly last week at Ballarat in the feature chase and a chance if building on that. Budd Fox was 2nd in this 2 years ago beaten just 0.2L and then wasn’t seen for 75 weeks. Has been poor on the flat since. We then have 5 horses who ran in the 0-114 Steeple last week behind Duke Of Bedford. The best of them was Tom Foolery who was a good 2nd to the impressive winner. Raise Your Sights was 7.25L back in 3rd, Fort Charles 9.5L back in 4th and Dr Dependable and She Shed So 5th and 7th. Given Tom Foolery made a mistake at the last and that race was slightly quicker than the feature I take him to confirm that form from last week. Race 6 I was hoping Stern Idol was going to run in the feature Steeple of the afternoon because I wanted to see the best jumps horse in Oz in the flesh. He has been so impressive on most of his jumps starts since coming over from France and he bolted up in this race last year. He then failed to finish in the Grand Annual, but he just doesn’t stay that far. He did manage to win the Crisp at Sandown over 4200m, but then disappointed over even further in the Grand National. He looks just in as good form ahead of this jumps prep as he has trialled well and also had a really good 2nd on the flat at Sandown last month. Hard to see how he gets beat and he should bolt up really. Rockstar Ronnie did win the Grand Annual and no doubt the ex Dan Skelton horse will be going back there next month. He was well behind Stern Idol in the Crisp on his last jumps start. Brungle Bertie was the one who took advantage of Stern Idols poor run in the Grand National and I would imagine he’s another with the Grand Annual as his target. He was a well beaten 4th behind Stern Idol in the Crisp. Tolemac won the Australian Stepple last season, but was stuffed in the Crisp and a well beaten 4th in the Grand National.

Obviously the Grand National is the main focus, but hopefully I can get you some spending money on the big race by finding some winners on Day 2 of The Championships at Randwick. The track race surprisingly well given all the rain last weekend and it was a profitable day. The weather is set fair for tomorrow so the ground should be decent so no worries on that front. Race 6 The Australian Oaks is New Zealand filly Orchestral’s to lose. She looked really good when winning the New Zealand Derby at the start of March and then she took the G1 Vinery Stud at Rosehill a couple of weeks ago. She had to tough it out that day over 2000m and looked like the step back up to 2400m is ideal for her. It is hard to see any of the other horses in behind reversing the form with her. The bigger dangers might come from new form lines with Autumn Angel and Quintessa who was just beaten by NZ Derby 2nd at Moonee Valley last time which obviously ties in with Orchestral. Orchestral @ 8/13 with William Hill Race 7 The Sydney Cup doesn’t have the profile of the Melbourne version, but it is still a G1 and it looks a decent renewal of the race. I put up Circle Of Fire last week and I was impressed with his victory so I am going in again with him as the main bet. That race was over 2600m and he has another 600m to go here, but the Queens Vase effort suggests he should stay and with the ground better this week that should help him as well. Andrea Atzeni has come across to Australia for the ride as well. The 7 day back up is always a slight concern, but is something they do often in Australia and he looks to be building up nicely into this. Athabascan is interesting as he was very strong in the Tancred last time in the final 100m after taking his time to build momentum in the straight having been tight for room round the corner. He looks ready to peak here up in distance and looks in better form than he was last prep. Ashrun was 4th in the Melbourne Cup and landed the Pakenham Cup with ease on Cheltenham Gold Cup Day. He was 3rd in the Tancred and was found to be lame so he has a chance as well. Former Derby winner Serpentine has won his last 2, but I’m not sure he wants this far. I am going to have a small bet on Amade at a double figure price though. As he ran an incredible race in the Adelaide Cup last time having stood still when the stalls opened losing 4-5L and then the stirrup strap broke so the rider lost both his irons. For him to finish 4th after all that was a superb effort. We know he stays well and he landed the Geelong Cup in October. This could be his chance to win a bigger Cup. Circle Of Fire @ 4/1 with everyone Athabascan @ 7 with everyone Amade @ 10 with Bet365 Race 8 The main race of the card is the Queen Elizabeth Stakes. The Australian Cup was a good race with Cascadian getting the better of Pride Of Jenni and Mr Brightside who was only 5th. However I think the ex George Boughey trained Via Sistina can beat them all. She was really good last season winning the Pretty Polly at the Curragh, then 3rd in the Falmouth followed by 2 2nds in the Prix Jean Romanet and the Champion Stakes. All that is clearly top class form. She was then purchased for a small fortune and sent to Chris Waller and she oozed class when winning the Ranvet at Rosehill on her first start in Australia. They didn’t go much of pace, but she was able to quicken up from last place at the 400m marker to go and win in impressive style. Her final 400m splits were very quick. I think she is the best horse in the race and I think the likely stronger pace will suit her even better. Via Sistina @ 5/4 with William Hill

I’m amazed both tips are drifting to be honest especially Spyglass Hill who I would have as favourite.

A maximum of 22 will be lining up for this year's Aintree Foxhunters' on Thursday. It looks set to be an interesting affair and one which will take place on very testing ground. Here is my in-depth guide to the race. Annamix - Clearly still very capable as he showed when beating Billaway and Ferns Lock at Fairyhouse a year ago. That day he picked up the pieces after those two went quite hard up front. He was then running a big race at Punchestown when he was badly hampered at 3 out and had to pull up. He then won at Killarney the following month. This season he returned at Naas and pulled up behind Its On The Line, but he looked pretty good in winning at Gowran a month later beating Early Doors by 10L. I think he has the ability to play a part, but I think he would prefer a longer trip and as much as this course isn't the jumping test it used to be, he has often jumped terribly in hunter chases. I found it very odd that Patrick Mullins described him as an excellent jumper after that Gowran win. Those two things stop me from wanting to back him, but if he put in a bold showing I wouldn't be shocked. Bennys King - Ran a huge race in this last year to finish 2nd to Famous Clermont and all the evidence suggests that he's in just as good form this season as well. He started off with a couple of fitness runs in handicaps and then the cheekpieces went back on and he ran a huge race to finish 3rd in the opening hunter chase of the season given he had set a hell of a pace and the race has worked out well. He was then 2nd to Sine Nomine at Wetherby over a trip which stretches him, but clearly given she won at Cheltenham it was still a respectable effort. He was really good at Leicester though when he jumped them silly from the front and beat Hardline by 23L. He no doubt will be prominently ridden again and whilst he probably isn't quite good enough to win he should be capable of a top 6 finish again. Cap Du Mathan - Appreciated the drop down to hunter chases when winning over 2m at Leicester in easy style. Firak was hampered though and whilst he still would likely have finished 2nd it would have been interesting if he had have been capable of making him fight for it. The 9yo had pulled up the last couple of times, but his seasonal return at Ascot when a close 4th to Boothill was to be fair a decent effort. He's unproven at the trip and wouldn't be my idea of the winner. Captain Tommy - Has done well to win a couple of hunter chases at Ludlow this season given he hasn't won pointing, although he was well fancied and I think there were reasons why he didn't run as well in them as he did in both Ludlow wins. In theory beating Espoir De Guye is strong form, but I think he must have under performed and whilst I can see him running his race he ought not to be good enough. Cat Tiger - 3rd to Cousin Pascal in 2021 and 2nd to Latenightpass in 2022 so can he now go on to win it this year? Looks unlikely to me as he looks on the downgrade. He ran out at Hereford in the race Time Leader won and then was 26L behind Bennys King when 3rd at Leicester last time. I can see that some people will latch onto him because of his Aintree record and I get that, but for me you are purely relying on that fact and he doesn't look in the same form now as he was then. Drop Flight - Won at Exeter last month and it was probably a deserved hunter chase success but he was pulled up at 66/1 in this last year and I don't see there being much improvement on that. Espoir De Guye - Didn't stay on hunter chase debut when a well beaten 3rd at Warwick, but dropped down to 2m4f at Wincanton he got the better of Famous Clermont which was a really good effort. Didn't back it up at Ludlow last time when 2nd to Captain Tommy and there wasn't an obvious excuse that day. You would give him an e/w squeak on the Wincanton win, but I suspect a midfield finish is most likely. Focus Point - Beating Fakie D'alene in October was a good effort, but he's been well beaten since and was 2nd in a maiden hunter chase at Down Royal last May so shouldn't be good enough. Garboriot - Came over from France and went hunter chasing last season and showed great promise on his debut at Hereford when a 20L 3rd to Bennys King. Things didn't go so well after than as he was a well beaten 4th at Kelso and then pulled up at Fakenham. He then unseated at the first at Warwick. He ran a bit better when 2nd at Ludlow, but was still beaten 12L and then he was stuffed again at Kempton. So the wheels had appeared to fall off, but the 12L 2nd to Time Leader at Cartmel was better and again showed that there was ability there. Given the summer off he went handicapping late last year and won at Kempton and Doncaster before just being denied when 3rd at Ludlow off 122 just before Christmas. Finally he was showing his true form and connections think it had just taken time for him to acclimatise to his new yard. He had another break before going back hunter chasing at Catterick and I thought he was very impressive in beating Windsor Avenue by 6L. Given George Cowley had yet to ride a winner under rules I thought he gave him a very cool and calm ride and with it just being a prep run for this there should be more to come. I think he looks one of the major players. Grand Roi - Has looked to have his quirks in points and hunter chases this season. Was flattered to be so close to Secret Investor at Fakenham and I don't think he would have beaten Forest Chimes at Stratford even if he had jumped the last better. He then bizarrely was sent off favourite a week later at Exeter and barley went a yard before pulling up. Can't have him at all here. Hardline - Beaten 31L by Ferns Lick at Thurles in January and somehow stayed on for 2nd behind Bennys King at Leicester despite looking like he would be tailed off. Still has 23L to make up on him though and was a well beaten 17th in the Topham last year. Might do better than that, but makes no appeal from a betting point of view. Its On The Line - A great run at Cheltenham to finish 2nd again, this time to Sine Nomine. It was no surprise to see him race lazily again, but he keeps finding for pressure and whilst he has his quirks, unlike Famous Clermont he does find. He ran in this last year and fell at Bechers when he was towards the back of the field. Given he is a horse who is full of stamina I'm just not sure this trip is going to be what he wants and it is always hard to win round this course when you are coming from so far back, which is likely to be what he tries to do. I had heard that he was going to miss the race, but I suspect really testing ground has meant they have changed their plans and are going to give it a go anyway. He has the ability to win, but even in testing ground I'm not sure this looks his race to me as surely he is going to get himself outpaced and I'm happy enough to take him on. What he does look like is a Grand National type and it wouldn't surprise me if that's where he ends up next season. Lieutenant Rocco - Never run here, but was 4th in the Cross-Country at the Festival last year and whilst beaten 46L it was still a fair effort. This season he pulled up in a handicap on Boxing Day, but then ran really well when trying to make all at Taunton in February when 2nd to the very promising Macklin. Wasn't so good 8 days later at Wincanton when finishing a well beaten 3rd behind Espoir De Guye and Famous Clermont. I'd be inclined to forgive that effort given how close it was to the very good Taunton one and a bold showing wouldn't be a shock. Matts Commission - Finally got the hunter chase win he deserved at Hexham last May and ran OK to finish 9th in this last year. Did win a point last month, but can't see him improving on that 9th. Rebel Dawn Rising - Finally got the 2nd hunter chase victory he deserved when winning at Fakenham on Gold Cup day. He slowed into the final fence, which is something he did last year at Fakenham when unseating his jockey before the fence when he would have won. He ran really well at Cheltenham last May as he tried to serve it up to Premier Magic, but he doesn't really stay 3m2f. This trip is ideal for him and he should improve from that Fakenham run which was his seasonal return. He might not quite have the class of some of these, but it would be no surprise if he managed a top 6 finish as this race looks perfect for him. Reikers Island - 15th in this last year and no doubt the aim is to give his owner/jockey another spin round. Romeo Magico - Was originally put in at a single figure price which surprised me as his form doesn't massively excite me at this stage. He won a maiden hunter chase at Limerick over Christmas by 0.5L and then was an 8L 2nd to Ferns Lock at Thurles and was easily put in his place. He then was only 4th in a point before looking impressive when winning at Down Royal on St Patricks Day over 2m4f. As good as he looked though that wasn't a great contest and I just don't see what he's done to warrant being so short in the betting as others have certainly achieved more. Clearly being 6 means there might be improvement to come, but even with the drift he still looks on the short side. Spyglass Hill - Was pretty useful for Henry De Bromhead in Ireland and got up to a mark of 146 and ran in some decent races. He did run over course and distance in the Grand Sefton in 2021 and he was in the lead when he stumbled and unseated at the Canal Turn. His last run in Ireland was a year ago which was a solid 3rd at Clonmel. He is now with Regan Pallas who works for Christian Williams and he made his debut for him in the Walrus at Haydock. Given how desperate the ground was and the fact he had been off for nearly a year I thought it was a top performance to come out on top as he had to be really game in the finish to beat Iskandar Pecos. That one franked the form by hacking up at Leicester a few days later albeit in a weak race and he then won at Ludlow last week. The fact we are going to get heavy ground really enhances his claims as all 4 wins have been on heavy ground and with stable confidence high he looks set to go very close. James King is a great jockey booking as well as he gave Cousin Pascal one of the best rides you will ever see round the National course to win this race. Tea Clipper - The bid for Cheltenham qualification failed in part due to the weather as one of the races he was due to run in was called off and in part because he hates soft ground. As it turned out he probably wouldn't have run given the ground last month anyway. A lot of people slated James King for getting him beat at Warwick, but given D'Jango finished 4th at Cheltenham I just think he was beaten by a better stayer. I'd ignore the Ludlow effort which was way below par. He clearly finds it hard to win, but he has also run to a high level this season and a level which would see him go fairly close in this. Clearly ground is important for him though and it just isn't in his favour. The Big Lense - Just needed a top 3 finish at Leicester to qualify for this, but may have got slightly lucky thanks to a faller. He's better on better ground and the win at Aintree last June was a very good effort. I think his campaign has been built towards a big run here from a shrewd yard, but even so I would have liked to have seen a bit more to want to back him even at a huge price especially on testing ground Time Leader - If he hadn't made a really bad mistake at the chair last year then he would have gone very close to winning as he was only beaten 6.25L in 5th and he probably lost nearly that with the error. I thought he was capable of running a big race at Cheltenham and initially had it between him and Quintin's Man as to who would be the small e/w bet for me in the race. As the ground was testing I went with Quintin's Man as Time Leader had shown he hates testing ground in the past, but not only did he handle it, he also looked the winner in the home straight until his stamina ran out in the ground. His jockey said that if the ground was better then he might well have won and to be fair I could easily have seen that being true. Whilst he obviously does stay 3m2f, this trip is probably his ideal distance and he I think he will have a great chance of improving on his 5th last year and he could easily win for his young trainer Hannah who is no doubt helped by his former trainer Joe O'Shea, who won this race with Cousin Pascal. Windsor Avenue - Well beaten by Sine Nomine at Wetherby and then behind Spyglass Hill in the Walrus. Ran much better behind Gaboriot at Catterick so fitness is clearly getting there. He could find a northern hunter chase this season, but whilst he should give his jockey a nice spin round, I can't see it being this one he wins. Verdict - It's quite tight at the top of the market, but It's On The Line is favourite with most and I am happy to take him on. The testing ground is in his favour and I think will help his cause, but I think he's going to find himself outpaced and out the back which will mean making a lot of ground in testing conditions. That's going to be tough to do and whilst he has the ability to win, it will be some performance for him to do so. The ground has come in the favour of Spyglass Hill and he rates the main selection. It was a very good win first up in the Walrus and he should come on for that. All his wins have been on heavy and I suspect he will settle just behind the front runners which should be ideal. I know stable confidence is high and the 33/1 he was put in when betting opened was a huge rick. Given the ground I would just about make him favourite. Time Leader is only just behind him in how high I rate his chances and that is purely down to the ground. If it was drier then I would make him favourite, but the fact he handled it at Cheltenham over further does enhance my confidence that he will handle it here. He was superb in the race last year and whilst his jockey can't use his claim, he has looked one of the best amateur's around this season so that doesn't bother me. If the Cheltenham contest was over 2m5f then he would have beaten Its On The Line and I think he will reverse the form with him. The 3rd pick is my e/w bet of the race and probably the one horse who is still massively over priced in the race. Gaboriot has looked an improved horse this season and this race has been the target. I was really impressed with him at Catterick and he should be a single figure price in my view. Annamix has the ability to win, but I worry about his jumping and he looks underpriced. Couldn't put anyone off backing Bennys King e/w as he has shown he is in as good form as he was last season and he should be in the top 5. Of the real big prices Rebel Dawn Rising makes the most appeal as I think he has the ability to be in and around the top 5. Spyglass Hill 2pts @ 9/2 with Skybet, Betfred, William Hill, BetVictor, Coral and Ladbrokes (take up to 3/1) Time Leader 1.75pts @ 5/1 with Coral and Ladbrokes (take up to 100/30) Gaboriot 1pt e/w @ 14/1 with Coral and Ladbrokes to 5 places (take up to 7/1)

It was meant to be Hamilton tomorrow, but there is an issue with the track so we head to Ballarat instead for 2 hurdles and 2 chases. Race 1 This doesn’t look a strong maiden hurdle and I am going to give Lincoln King another chance. He was fav on hurdles debut at Coleraine last August, but was only 5th. I am prepared to forgive that effort though as he lost a shoe and had minor abrasions on his leg. He was poor in the Adelaide Cup last time, but ran well in a Listed Race at Moonee Valley the time before and he is easily the best horse of these on the flat. Murrumbidgee River was well beaten at Pakenham on hurdles debut last July, but he never travelled and was lame after the race. He was quite short in the market that day and could do better here after a fair prep run on the flat last time. Gunaluva is the other one to mention. He was 2nd in a couple of maiden hurdles last season and won a maiden chase although that was a weak race, but clearly is one of the main contenders here. Lincoln King 1pt @ 11/10 with everyone Race 2 Okataina is odds on after easily winning a maiden hurdle at Warrnambool on hurdles debut. He went from the front and his task was made easier after Grand Promanade sadly departed the race. I can see why he’s at the head of the market as he brings fresh form to this race, but its hard to think he is value and I will back a couple e/w instead. Count Zero likes to front run as well and won a couple of times last season at Terang and Casterton. He was also 2nd in the Grand National Hurdle at Sandown and that is all form which means he can go well here. The other one I like is ex Irish horse Crosshill. He ended up winning the opening race of the season when the long odds on fav fell and he ended up with an easy task. Even so he has strong hurdles form in Ireland and he looks over priced at double figure odds. Count Zero 0.5pts e/w @ 11/1 with Skybet Crosshill 0.5pts e/w @ 14/1 with Skybet Race 3 A low grade steeplechase which sees Duke Of Bedford head the market. He struggled a bit after winning a maiden chase last season, but fair to say this is a class drop from those efforts. I’m going to look to the chasing newcomers instead and I think Fort Charles is worth a small bet. He showed ability over hurdles in 2022, but only ran in one flat race in 2023 so clearly something went amiss. He’s had plenty of trials and 2 flat runs to build his fitness up and he just beat Tom Foolery in a chase trial last month. I thought he jumped better than the 2nd in that trial and it is why I favour him to win. Fort Charles 1pt @ 9/2 with most bookies Race 4 Instigator just got the better of Might Oasis in the first chase of the season at Warrnambool yet for some reason is much shorter in the betting here. I thought he was slightly fortunate not to lose the race in the stewards room as well so I am happy to give Mighty Oasis another chance and he might well reverse the form. The one slight concern is he just seem to go well at Warrnambool, but that is factored into the price for me. Vanguard is solid, but I’d imagine he is working towards the Grand Annual next month. The Rattlin’ Bog can go well on chasing debut, whilst I’m a little surprised to see Mr Coyne be so strong in the betting as I don’t really fancy him. Might Oasis 1pt @ 15/2 with Paddy Power and Betfair

On the forum.

When it comes to Australian flat races I just cover the big meetings as I really don’t have the time to do it week in week out. I have a separate thread for Aussie jumps racing on here and I cover every race during the season and the next 4 races are tomorrow so previews for those will be up at some point.

Great day but so close to being even better! Amazing after all the rain they had they got the meeting on and the track raced really well.

Hopefully it will be Day 1 of The Championships at Randwick in Sydney on Saturday although the area is having a crazy amount of rain so it could be called off. What is certain is that the ground will be very testing and that is going to be a big factor in how things play out. I have taken a look at 3 races on the card. Race 2 This is a Group 2 over 2600m and the main bet is the ex-Stoute trained Circle Of Fire. He was 3rd in the Lingfield Derby Trial last year and then 4th in the Queens Vase at the Royal meeting. Since going to Oz he has had 2 4ths over 1600m and 1900m showing promise both times. As his form in the UK suggests he should relish stepping up to this sort of trip. He has yet to run on a testing surface so that is an unknown, but otherwise he has a leading chance. At a bigger price Hopeful looks to have a fair chance. Well beaten 1st up, but he needs further than the 2000m that day. What really interests me though are his ground stats. He has no platings in 7 starts on good ground, on soft ground he has been in the 1st 3 10 times in 14 starts and in 3 starts on heavy ground 2 have seen him in the platings. There should be big improvement from him up in trip on a testing surface. Circle of Fire @ 4/1 with most bookies Hopeful e/w @ 16/1 with most bookies Race 7 The big sprint on the card is the T J Smith. I’m not sure Imperatriz is in as good form as she was in her last prep and I’m happy enough to look elsewhere. I Wish I Win is 1st up here, but he does have a solid 1st up record and I think he can go close to winning this for the 2nd year running. That came on a Heavy 9 and his last start saw him finish a slightly unlucky 2nd in the The Everest when he didn’t get a clear run until the final 200m. The other one I like is Bella Nipotina. She is a solid mare who has been running well so far this prep. She loves a heavy track and that could easily see her improve enough to hit the frame at least here. I Wish I Win @ 14/5 with Bet365 Bella Nipotina e/w @ 9/1 with most bookies Race 8 The Doncaster Mile is a big field handicap and Another Wil was a short price favourite for this, but he then drew stall 21 which is going to be a worry. He is a horse on the upgrade though and he was impressive last Saturday at Rosehill. I do like the horse, but this is the hardest race he has been in, he has a shocking draw and I’m not sure about the 7 day back up for him either. He’s around the 11/4 mark and it is hard to say that is value. With that said I am look to take 3 at double figure odds and then another couple at huge odds to small stakes. Plenty of UK bookies are going 4 places as well (on Aussie rules it is only 3 places despite the field size). All these have wet track form and look to be coming here in solid form. Detonator Jack, Southport Tycoon and Zougotcha are those at shorter double figure odds and the 2 at massive odds are Pericles and Semana. I should just say Berkshire Shadow runs in this on his 2nd start in Oz and he his a huge price if he can run to the form he showed in the Lockinge or the Queen Anne. He was average in that 1st run at Flemington though. Detonator Jack e/w @ 11/1 with Coral and Ladbrokes Southport Tycoon e/w @ 16/1 with William Hill (N/R) Zougotcha e/w @ 16/1 with William Hill (N/R) Pericles e/w @ 50/1 with William Hill Semana e/w @ 33/1 with William Hill (N/R)

The last two races were called off because the ground was too quick and sadly Grand Promenade was killed in a fall in the first.

Back to Warrnambool for the 2nd meeting of the season for 4 races Race 1 The maiden hurdle has divided and the first division sees G3 winner and 6th placed in the 2021 Melbourne Cup Grand Promenade make his hurdles debut. I watched his last trial and he jumped well apart from making one bad mistake, but it was good to see that he picked up well from it and it didn't stop him. He finished 2nd behind Okataina who was given a bold front running ride. In also won his previous trial where he just caught Southern France who had built up a massive lead but got run down. Okataina is nowhere near Grand Promenade's flat ability, but clearly enjoys hurdles and comes from a top yard. Southern France might ring a bell as he was trained by Aidan O'Brien. He finished 2nd in the 2018 Queen's Vase at Royal Ascot, 3rd in that years St Leger, 2nd in the following year's Yorkshire Cup and 3rd in the Irish St Leger. He then went over for the Melbourne Cup and only beat 5 home. He then won the G2 Sandown Classic and it looked like he might have a decent Australian career, but he hasn't won since and has really struggled recently. Jumps looks like a last throw of the dice and it will be interesting to see how he gets on, but I can't back him. Tarn's Prince ran well enough when 2nd here a couple of weeks ago, but I suspect now he's in a proper race that Grand Promenade should be too good for Okataina and the rest. No bet Race 2 This is probably a two horse race unless Elementry steps up from an OK debut a couple of weeks ago. Extra Elusive was trained by Roger Charlton over here and the pick of his efforts would be the Rose Of Lancaster win at Haydock in August 2020. He went downhill from there though and the move to Australia hasn't really worked as that Haydock win is his last win. To be fair he's had some good place efforts and was 2nd in a good version of the Great Western Cup last time. I liked his trial performance last time which he won at Terang and he jumped really well on the whole. Irish Butterfly is the other at the head of the market and he jumped well enough when winning a trial last time. He was so far clear of the others that you couldn't even see all of his jumps. He's decent enough on the flat as well. I'm going to take Extra Elusive to win this because he is the better horse on the flat and I thought he really attacked his hurdles well in the trial and he could well get the better of his market rival. Extra Elusive 1pt @ 6/5 with everyone Race 3 These BM120 hurdles were tricky last season and we see plenty of the same old faces lining up in this. One exception to that is the favourite Pure Deal and he does strike me as the most likely winner. He has only had 3 starts over hurdles all last April and May. At Pakenham he was a close 3rd in a maiden which worked out very well and he duly landed his maiden over this course and distance the following month. He then went into BM120 company at Sandown and was very disappointing. Clearly there was a reason for that because he hasn't run in a proper race since. He's had a few jump outs and trials though and he won both hurdles trials at Cranbourne and Terang looking promising in the process. He looks the one horse in this race who could progress higher up the ranks. 2nd in is Abreed and he's only had 4 starts, but he was 7th in that same Pakenham maiden and he ended up winning his maiden 2 starts later at Sale which isn't as strong form. He was only beaten 0.2L into 3rd in this grade at Pakenham last July and that's probably why he has the same mark as Pure Deal, but given he has about 10L to make up on the run last April I am happy to back the favourite against him. The rest are all solid horses and capable of winning at some point this season. Count Zero might be the biggest danger as his 2nd in the Grand National Hurdle obviously reads very well, but he does have a lot of weight because of it. Rising Renown and That's Incranibull have claims and good old El Diez turns up at pretty much every meeting and usually runs his race, but I am happy to go with the least exposed horse in the race. Pure Deal 1pt @ 13/10 with Bet365 Race 5 Good to see the Steeplechase on the card has had 13 entries because you don't usually have emergencies in them, but it seems plenty want to go chasing this season. I like Budd Fox here who has only had 3 starts over jumps the first 3 of which came back in 2021. He won a maiden hurdle at Pakenham in April and was then 4th in a BM120 at Sandown the following month. The following year he ran at the same Pakenham meeting in the BM125 steeplechase and was beaten 0.2L by Valac. He then went missing for 77 weeks and has had 3 starts on the flat plus various trials and jump outs since. That Valac form is very strong and I watched his trial here a couple of weeks ago and he looked in good shape and loved jumping the fences. Even though he hasn't been seen in a jumps race for a long time, he should be fit and with the other jumps form on other not making a huge amount of appeal I am happy to take him as being the best horse in the race. I am also going to have a small e/w bet on Yulong Place who I put up in the first race of the season. He hadn't run since 2022, but had finished 2nd in the Thackeray and Crisp which were good efforts, plus he was a course and distance winner. He looked very fresh and keen 13 days ago and I thought he ran well until the effort told late on and was allowed to coast home in his own time. He might still need another run, but at huge odds he's worth a small play. Budd Fox 1pt @ 16/5 with Paddy Power and Betfair Yulong Place 0.5pts e/w @ 22/1 with Bet365

Rarely will a race plan out just as you think it will and rarely will than happen in the biggest hunter chase of the season, but pretty much everything I thought would happen at Cheltenham did happen. Obviously it helped I backed her, but I am really pleased that Sine Nomine won as it is a great result for British pointing. I had a interesting discussion with Johnny Dineen on Twitter who reckoned British hunter chases were just full of crocs which quite frankly was a disgraceful thing to say and she helped prove him wrong. She did what she always does and cruised round for most of the way until things got very interesting coming to the last. Having seen the head on I personally think John had every right to go up the inside and it was a bit of a naughty move from Derek. I'm sure he would say it was just race riding, but if John hadn't switched the mare you do wonder what might have happened. The switch just before the fence meant she didn't actually jump it all that well and she didn't look the winner at that stage. She flew up the run-in though and certainly proved any doubts I had about her seeing out the trip wrong because she ate up the ground to catch and pass Its On The Line. She's a top class mare and given her age you have to think she has a good chance of coming back next year and winning again. She hasn't been entered at Aintree and Cheltenham and Stratford have been mentioned as remaining targets for the season. Its On The Line did travel well for a fair way and it was going down the back for the last time that he started having to be niggled along, but that was hardly a surprise. It was also no surprise that he kept going and going because that is what he does. He ran his race and I think he was just beaten by a better horse on the day who would have won by further if she hadn't had to switch before the last. It was a very good ride, but I saw some say that only he could have got him to run so well, but as I said in the preview he didn't ride him to win at Down Royal and he was hard work that day so I don't buy that. Derek reckons the horse will prefer Aintree, but he fell at Bechers last year and he was quite a long way back at the time. I'm not going to say he can't win, but he's been put in as favourite and it will need a very good ride if he finds himself out the back again for most of the race. The heavier the ground the better his chance I suspect. If he stays hunter chasing then no doubt he will be a big player in this again next year. You may remember that I was tossing up putting up Time Leader or Quintin's Man as the 3rd pick and the ground being testing put me off Time Leader. That was clearly a mistake and I did briefly wonder if it was going to be a serious error when he led turning for home. Fortunately for us the ground did mean he didn't see it out as well as the first 2 and I do think his jockey might have been right in saying that if the ground had been better he might well have won the race. He is going to be a big player at Aintree where a mistake at the chair put him on the back foot before he made up loads of ground to finish 5th. The in running comment for D'Jango does not mention that he made any mistakes which is just daft because he made loads and whilst he didn't look like falling they cost him plenty of ground. The data says that he lost 16L on the field average through his jumping and the 2nd and 3rd gained between 12 and 15 lengths through their jumping so that's around a 30L swing. It was some effort for him to nab Billaway on the line for 4th. It backed up that his form has improved massively since going to his new yard. He didn't jump all that well at Warwick when he won so dropping back down in grade shouldn't be an issue if he still jumps poorly. I think he looks an ideal candidate for the 4m race on hunter chase night and the slower pace should mean his jumping isn't under so much pressure. He is a proven stayer as well. Billaway has run his usual solid race and made a bad error at the last. He will be 13 next year, but he might be back if he's still showing something. I'd imagine Punchestown will be on his agenda this season. The even older Shantou Flyer was the last to finish and the stiff test of stamina probably wasn't ideal for him, but to be beaten 20L at his age was still a huge effort and it was great to see him run well. Onto the non-finishers and lets start with Ferns Lock. He looked a bit on edge when he left the parade ring and was wearing the red hood. As soon as that came off at the start though he lost the plot and any chance of him staying disappeared. He ran as he usually does and was too free up front, but his jumping also let him down at time as not only did he make some bad mistakes he also occasionally jumped out to his right. I thought he was going to be a strong bet for Aintree, but on the back of this effort I have some doubts. It wont be as big a crowd at Aintree, but you still have to wonder if he is going to go mental again and. His jumping is now a concern and will he empty on the long run-in? He is clearly still mentally immature and he needs to grow up. Last year's winner Premier Magic never really looked like he was going to get involved in the finish. I found it bizarre that a few in the media felt he was over priced and was a great e/w bet because there was no proof he was in the same form as last year on his pointing form. He might not have stayed in this deeper ground, but I just think he might have regressed at the age of 11. Quintin's Man was disappointing for me and I was surprised that Darren said the horse was unsuited by the ground as I thought he need it testing. He never got involved anyway and maybe he just isn't up to it. Samcro pulled up as well which was no surprise. So it was a smaller than usual field, but I think the quality was there and for me it was a classy renewal with the best two horses finishing 1st and 2nd. Ferns Lock is clearly good, but he needs to mature.

Possibly, but I guess you want to give them a chance to sort it out before resorting to further methods and actually the fact it should have been starting again this week probably helped as well.

Amazing result and one I didn't think was going to happen, certainly not as quickly as it has.

I have got Tony Calvin to mention it in the Betfair podcast today.

That is shocking. I will see what I can do. I had many interactions with Graham in the last year or so of his life and the fact that this has been done by people he trusted to set it up in his honour is disgraceful

That is very kind of you mate. The charity will be thrilled.

The original link I put up for the charity doesn’t work anymore so here is one where you can donate direct to the charity https://fundraising.smallsteps.org.uk/donation/donate

55 minutes after the Cheltenham race we have the Fakenham hunter chase and it looks a really interesting contest. Knight In Dubai actually went to a couple of Cheltenham Festivals when he beat one home in Samcro's Ballymore win and the year after he was 13th in the Coral Cup. He's not won under rules since December 2019 although he's not had that many goes since then and he was going close off 130 last season. He's gone to James Owen's wife's yard and he has won both starts in points at Horseheath this year. His form under rules was over shorted than 3m, but Horseheath is a fair test so he ought to see it out round here. He had his stablemate Grand Roi in behind him in the first win which gives us a bit of basis for the form, but as he proved again on Monday, he's a hard horse to win with. He won easier in the 2nd start, but this should be a tougher test. He does get weight from every other horse in the race and he can win, but I think I am happy enough to look elsewhere. I am a big fan of Rebel Dawn Rising and he has been a bit unlucky not to add to his Leicester hunter chase win a couple of years ago. He made his seasonal reappearance in this race last year and whilst I'm not sure he would have beaten Bennys King, he never got a chance to because he was brought down at the 7th. On Easter Monday he was set to beat Janika and Firak over course and distance until he ran around on the run to the last fence and unseated Dale as he took off. I thought he ran with great credit behind Premier Magic at Cheltenham as he gave it a good go, but he just didn't stay and finishing within 17L of him over 3m2f is a top effort. Clearly 3m round here is fine and he has won first up before. He also wont mind what the weather does as it could rain before the race gets underway. I'm very surprised Firak is out again after Leicester. He ran way below par here on Easter Monday and it looked like he just didn't handle the track. He more than likely wouldn't have won last week, but the hampering at 3 out meant he didn't get the chance to put the winner under pressure. My issue is though is he never looked like he was going all that well and that's the main reason I'm surprised he's out again. So whilst I think he has the ability to win the fact he didn't seem to handle the track, has around 20L to turn around with Rebel Dawn Rising, and he looked to have a hard race last week means I am happy to take him on. Ed Turner's horses tend to always come on for a run or two so the fact Janika pulled up behind Fier Jaguen at Garthorpe on his return last month is no real surprise. The problem is he was 12L behind Rebel Dawn Rising at Garthorpe last March and would have been behind him again if he had jumped the last on Easter Monday. He wouldn't be for me. Dan Skelton has links to 3 horses in this race as he also used to train Shentri. He had been off the track since July 2022 before make his pointing debut at Higham last month. Higham wouldn't be that dissimilar to Fakenham so the track should suit. Whilst he didn't get as high as Knight In Dubai in the ratings, he is only 7 so could be open to improvement and crucially he was very impressive when winning at Higham. He bolted up by 20L there and the time was the quickest of the day. He was quicker than The Big Lense on the same card despite carrying 7lbs more so that makes it a really good effort for me. I guess we have to consider the bounce factor, but more of a concern might be if it rains as has pretty much only run on good ground. Given Chief Black Robe couldn't win a maiden point last season it was quite something that a move to Fergal O'Brien's saw him win 4 handicaps on the bounce. He started off of a mark of 88 and his 4th win was off 115. He then went to the Summer Plate at Market Rasen and finished 4th before getting beat at 2/5 at Newton Abott in September. Back with his owner/rider now he returned at Ampton last month and was 3rd of 4 beaten 13L. I don't think you can completely rule him out given the 4th at Market Rasen, but you do get the feeling that maybe Fergal had a fair bit to with the improvement. All of them have some sort of chance, but I am happy enough to take back Rebel Dawn Rising and Shentri against the field. I think Rebel Dawn Rising is the best horse in the race and as much as he has to give race fitness away, the fact he's won 1st up before and wasn't unfancied to beat Bennys King in this last year, I think that won't be an issue. I want Shentri onside as well because I think that win at Higham is the best recent form of the season and if it isn't too soft for him he ought to go close. Rebel Dawn Rising 2pts @ 7/4 with Bet365 (take up to 11/8) Shentri 1pt @ 9/1 with Bet365 (take up to 5/1)

As per last year if you have found my preview helpful I am looking to raise money for a small charity called Small Steps who have really helped with my youngest son. It really doesn't matter how small the donation as all money is vital for such a small charity who do great things for disabled children. https://www.justgiving.com/page/amanda-pearce-1686595602869?newPage=true

Here is my full in-depth preview for the race on Friday. A smaller field than usual this year, but class wise I think it is up to scratch and it promises to be a good renewal. As ever hopefully I can point you in the way of the winner, but the main reason for the preview is that it provides you with the most in-depth preview on the race you will find and it provides you with the information to also come up with your own mind. Billaway - You can't knock his record in the race having finished 2nd, 2nd, 1st and then fell at the 10th in the last 4 renewals. Given the rest of his form last season you have to think he would have been involved in the finish if he had got round. His jumping hasn't always been great though and that did finally tell last year and he also unseated at Punchestown. He bounced back from that to beat Vaucelet to win a decent pot at Downpatrick in May. He made his seasonal return later than usual this season and he has a terrible first time out record so I wasn't surprised to see him well behind in 3rd as they turned for home at Naas, but then as Its On The Line idled he railed strongly and it was no surprise that he traded very short in running as he looked like he was going to win. In the end Its On The Line picked up when he got to him and won by a head, but it was still a very good run. I just wonder that given he was having his prep later than usual if he was further forward than he usually is 1st up. I'm not sure he can win it again, but given his record in the race and the fact he ran so well last time suggests to me that if he gets round he isn't going to be far away at the finish. D'Jango - Was one of the Judith Wilson owned horses that David Pipe trained who used to run what seemed like every week and he was rated just 100 over fences when picked up by new connections. Not surprisingly he went off a massive price for the opening hunter chase of the season, but he massively outran his odds when finishing a length 2nd to the very promising mare Regatta De Blanc. That horse has franked the form since as has the 3rd Bennys King and Shantou Flyer was behind in 5th. He then stayed on very strongly at Warwick to overhaul Tea Clipper after the last and they had pulled well clear of the others. He was possibly a little disappointing in the Walrus at Haydock last time when a fairly well beaten 4th behind Spyglass Hill, but it was really testing ground that day and I'm not sure he was totally in love with it. The handicapper has put him up 29lbs since he went hunter chasing and I think that is fair enough given the form he has shown. We know he stays well and the ground is clearly going to better than Haydock so whilst I doubt he will win, I think he can run well and finish in the top half. Ferns Lock - There were 3 horses I saw last season who really impressed me and Ferns Lock was one of them. His wins at Fairyhouse where he beat Its On The Line and at Thurles where he beat Billaway were hugely impressive. Lots wanted him to go to Cheltenham on the back of that, but I thought they were right to give him more time as he needed more experience. He went to Gowran Park instead and although he won hard held his jumping wasn't quite as good as it had been and backed up my thinking that he needed another year. He was then surprisingly beaten at Fairyhouse when Annamix picked up the pieces after Ferns Lock and Billaway got racing from a fair way out. That run though did make me think that maybe his stamina wasn't quite what he needed to be to win this race. This season he returned at Dromahane and beat a useful field with ease. He then went to Down Royal and looked like he was going to win again having seen off the challenge of Ramillies, but he had no response to the fast finishing Its On The Line who beat him by 0.5L. That performance really set off the alarm bells about his stamina for 3m2f around Cheltenham. He bounced back to winning ways by beating a stablemate of Its On The Line with ease at Thurles. What was interesting though was that Ruby Walsh said after the race that he looks an Aintree horse not a Cheltenham horse and I completely agree with him. Even his trainer has come out and said he thinks he might be more of an Aintree horse. If he goes to Aintree I think he will be very hard to beat. On the whole he jumps well and he enjoys being out in front, but although he's not overly keen he is free running and I think at this stage of his career he just does a bit too much to win this race. The one thing in his favour on that front though is the smaller field than usual as he might get away with a bit of a freebie up front which wouldn't have been the case with a full field. My thinking is there is a strong chance of him being in front at the last, but that he will having nothing for the run-in and at least something will outstay him. The other thing to note is he is unlikely to get left alone on the front end and as we saw at Fairyhouse that isn't going to help him either. I suspect he is the best horse in the race ability wise and that he's better than a hunter chaser and if he did happen to stay he wins, but I don't think he will stay so am happy to take him on. From The Heart - Has shown form that suggests he could win a hunter chase at some point, but nothing in his form suggests he can get anywhere near to winning this and his massive price reflects his chances. Its On The Line - The horse I have thought would be the winner since he beat Ferns Lock at Down Royal on Boxing Day. Was a fast finishing 2nd to Premier Magic last year when having the cheekpieces on for the first time. Jumping 2 out you wouldn't have given him any hope of reaching the frame as he was looking pretty laboured and then all of a sudden late on his flying home and had clearly got going too late. He then fell at Aintree, but pretty much made all to win at Punchestown. He did race lazily that night, but what I liked was he kept finding for Derek and whilst Vaucelet had travelled better, he just couldn't get past him and a mistake at the last made no difference to the result for me. It was a bit of a surprise to see him run again in another point a couple of weeks later and finished 2nd to Rocky's Howya and both horses had long succesful seasons. This season he's 3/3. He won a point in November and then went to Down Royal when outstaying Its On The Line. Over 2f further I just don't see how the form can be reversed. We know Its On The Line is all about stamina and even if he gets outpaced we know he's highly likely to be finishing best of all. Onto that dramatic race at Naas where he first of all went toe to toe with Ramillies and once he saw him off at the last he then started to idle and Billaway came from nowhere looking like he was going to go straight pass him, but as soon as he got to Its On The Line he picked up again and he was a head in front at the line. For a horse to do that having gone hard in testing ground just shows he clearly had plenty left and that when it matters he will fight. I doubt he is going to be left in front here, but to be fair he has also shown he is hard to pass once he gets in front anyway even if he is. The trainer has said he will be putting the cheekpieces back on so that should bring about a little bit more as well. It could be argued that why should he beat Premier Magic based on last year's run, but I think he's improved and I doubt Premier Magic has given he is now 11. Clearly 7yos don't have a good recent record in the race, but he has a different profile to most good ones who have tired as we know he will stay and that he has the class to win. I think a fair few younger horses who have tried just haven't stayed which isn't a concern with him. The softer the ground the better as it will test turn it into more of a test, but it was decent ground when he won at Punchestown so it isn't crucial. JP has no doubt paid a few quid for him last week and I suspect he might well have next years Grand National in mind as much as this contest. He is the one they all have to beat. Premier Magic - I was put off his chances for this race last year because of the way he ran in the race in 2022. He looked like he hated every second of it before pulling up and knowing that Brad wanted to run Highway Jewel instead it put me off backing him despite thinking he had the ability to run well. In 2022 he was on the inside, so Brad decided to ride him on the outside and it worked a treat. He was always going well and took the lead at 2 out before always holding the fast finishing Its On The Line. Somehow he recorded a higher RPR when winning on hunter chase night on his next start, but he beat a non stayer in Rebel Dawn Rising and the rest of the field were a poor bunch in the context of this race. He definitely achieved more winning this. This season he has won both his starts at Sheriff Hutton and Brocklesby Park. The issue I have though is neither of those efforts told us anything apart from he has four legs still. The 2nd and 3rd at Sheriff Hutton have both been stuffed in hunter chases recently and he was 1/10 at Brocklesby. There was certainly more depth to his wins prior to last year's race. I'm not saying for a second that he couldn't be another duel winner, but you are guessing how much ability he still retains because the two runs have told us nothing. He's now 11 and my thinking is that Its On The Line has improved so he will have to have done as well. He seems about the right price at this stage. The cheekpieces which he wore for both Cheltenham wins last season and have been missing this season go back on here. Quintin's Man - We know the course and distance will hold no fears for him as he bolted up to win the Intermediate Final on hunter chase night last year. You can pick holes in that form, but it was still an impressive performance. He then went to Stratford for the John Corbet Cup and he hated the experience and never really looked happy at any stage. He started off the season with a couple of 3rds which didn't look overly hopeful, although the second of them at Chipley Park has worked out well. He certainly stepped up on those efforts at Wincanton when beaten a useful field in taking style. Lalor was 2nd there and Paul Nicholls tried to get him qualified for this, but he was only 4th at Taunton. I wouldn't have that effort knock the form because the race would have come soon enough and it was a hot race. Quintin's Man went to Haydock for the Walrus and whilst the trip was on the short side for him my thinking was the bottomless ground would make it such a test of stamina that it would be ideal for him. He did get himself outpaced though in the home straight, but I still thought he was going to win jumping the last, but I just wonder if the effort of getting to the 1st and 2nd paid on the run-in and he ended up in 3rd. I think he needs soft ground to be seen at his best and we know he stays well so he wouldn't be the worst outsider in the race. Ramillies - Surprised that he is even running in this given the way he ran at Gowran Park on Saturday. He was legless after the last behind Its On The Line before that and I struggle to see him staying. Samcro - Good old Samcro finally gets his chance to run in this race as he didn't qualify for hunter chases in the UK last year. A duel Festival winner and no doubt the horse that people will get excited about because on his old form he's easily the best horse in the race. He got up to a mark of 160 over fences and 163 over hurdles and there will be those out there who will presume that means he should win this. If he was still capable of running to anywhere near those marks though he wouldn't be hunter chasing. One day no doubt a horse with his sort of profile will win the race again, but horses like him just don't win this race anymore. If he had been able to run in teh race last year I'd have given him more of a chance as he won 3 points by 30L twice and 32L the other time. This season he looks to have gone backwards as he won by just 2.5L first time up, albeit snugly, and then last month he was only 3rd at Belharbour behind Lifetime Ambition. I thought he looked quite laboured in the finish that day and whilst the winner is apparently going to be aimed at Aintree it didn't look a performance of a horse who was going to be good enough to win this. My other concern is how he will fare going back under rules because he had really lost his way and he always had his quirks anyway. 9 of the last 10 winners of this have had to run to an RPR of 141 to win and I have big doubts about him running to that level anymore. He's a single figure price, but he should be around 25/1 for me. Also as much as he did win twice at The Festival he was also pulled up in the Ryanair the last time he ran here. Shantou Flyer - Has an incredible record at Cheltenham having won twice, finished 2nd 5 times and 3rd 3 times in his 13 starts round here. His record at the Festival reads fell in the National Hunt Chase in 2016, 2nd beaten a neck in the Ultima of 2018, 2nd in the 2019 Foxhunter, 3rd in the 2020 Foxhunter, 3rd in the 2021 Kim Muir and 3rd in last years race 3L behind Premier Magic. That is some record and it would be no surprise if he was to run a huge race yet again. He was in really good form last season as he won hunter chases in really good style at Exeter and Stratford and the 2nd in the 4m race on hunter chase night was good because he just doesn't stay that far (had been 5th the year before in that contest). This season he won on his return at Larkhill and then was 5th in the opening hunter chase of the season behind Regatta De Blanc when he tried to keep up with Bennys King at the head of the race and they both went too quick. That trip would have been short enough in a race of that quality as well. He had his prep at Charlton Horethorne on Sunday where he actually won 2 races because he walked over in the hunt race before winning the Mixed Open beating Singapore Saga by a comfortable 3L. It would be some effort for him to finally win at the Cheltenham Festival at the age of 14, but some bookies will be offering extra places (probably down to 8 at least) and he would look a fair e/w bet taking the lower odds and extra places. To be honest a top 4 finish at normal odds might well show a return given his record at the meeting and Cheltenham overall. Time Leader - Joe O'Shea has had a knack of improving horses by stones over the years and this was another one. When he started hunter chasing he was rated 90 and he is now up to 128 and even that mark might under estimate him. He won twice at Leicester and Stratford last year, before surprisingly running just 6 days later in the mud at Carlisle over 3m which looked very unsuitable for him and so it proved as he pulled up. He then ran a massive race in the Aintree Foxhunters when staying on well to finish 5th 6.25L behind Famous Clermont. He made a bad mistake at the Chair that day and without it he would have gone closer. After that he won at Kelso and at Cartmel where he beat Gaboriot by 12L over just over 3m1f. That gives a hint that he might be capable of staying the trip here and whilst the 2nd as improved since it still gives a bit of value to the form given he has won 3 times this season. You will notice that Hannah Roach now trains him, but don't be fooled as Joe is very much still involved and he made a winning return before getting stuck in the mud at Chaddesley Corbett in December. It was no surprise he bounced back at Hereford in January and he won with loads in hand. The better the ground the better his chance because he doesn't seem to handle it testing and it wouldn't help his stamina either. If it is no worse than good to soft though it wouldn't surprise me if he went close, but the weather suggests that is unlikely to happen now. Sine Nomine - I have been slow to warm to her because you have always been able to pick all sorts of holes in her rules form, but after her win at Wetherby I think it is just a case of her being a very good horse. She made her rules debut in the Intermediate Final on hunter chase night a couple of years ago and she jumped terribly although was still able to finish 3rd albeit a well beaten one. Last season she had 3 point starts before going to Stratford where she was foot perfect and beat Kaproyale easily. Now I wondered if she was the only one who liked the ground (the favourite didn't) and Kaproyale is better over shorter so I my thinking was she was the only one to have conditions to suit. She then went back to hunter chase night here and ran in the mares race and was beaten by Miss Seagreen. She travelled really well and looked the winner for a long way, but was just over hauled late on. She then went to Stratford for the John Corbet Cup which she won again after traveling strongly. The problem is the form isn't very strong with the 2nd having been stuffed in handicaps off marks in the low 100s since. First time out this season she was beaten at Alnwick in the mud by Wagner who whilst he has been a winning machine this season wouldn't be a fancy in this so again I wasn't overly strong on her going into Wetherby. On the face of it you could say she has beaten a non stayer in Bennys King, a horse who has needed his first two runs in Windsor Avenue and the favourite Fairly Famous hated the ground so again you can pick holes in the form. However she's travelled all over Bennys King for most of the home straight and therefore if the race had been over say 2m6f Sine Nomine still would have won. Given Bennys King form this season has been exceptional I think this effort is probably the best run from a British trained horse this season. I think she is at her best with a bit of cut in the ground and she is such a strong traveller whatever the conditions. There are two minor worries I have though. First of all her two worse runs under rules have both come at Cheltenham but the first was down to inexperience and I think she will be better off in a bigger field and truly run race which she didn't get last May. Secondly there has to be a small concern about her seeing out the trip given that defeat her last year. I know she won over further at Stratford, but it was a slowly run race and not a test at all. Secret Investor was 22 seconds quicker whilst carrying 7lbs more which shows how slow it was run. Maybe she might be one of these younger horses how doesn't quite see it out, but difference is she is a double figure price and she should be shorter. Verdict - So we are going to have the smallest field for some time and I think the real reason for that is the lack of total no hopers in the race. As much as I am happy to take certain horses on, you can only say that From The Heart doesn't have any chance of winning the race. If you haven't backed Its On The Line yet I do think there is some juice in the price. He's the most likely winner for me and given the weather forecast it does look like its going to be on the softer side which isn't going to help Ferns Lock stamina. What will help him though is the smaller field as he might just get an easier time on the front end than I originally thought before the 6 day decs. Sine Nomine is clear 2nd choice for me and I am happy to back her now. If there are only 13 runners then we might not see many, if any, bookies go 4 places and I think her price might come in. I think she has the best British form this season coming into the race as that Wetherby run was a top class effort. Those two slight concerns I mention in her profile are more than factored into the price for me and I think she should be a single figure price. If Premier Magic is in the same form as last year then clearly he is going to go close, but it is impossible to know if he is or not based on his two point runs this season and he's the right sort of price at the moment. Billaway's record in the race means he must be respected and again looks the right sort of price. I couldn't put anyone off backing either though if you fancy them. The final bet to be added is Quintin's Man. Conditions are certainly going to be in his favour and he is an out and out stayer so I certainly want him on side. If it had dried out more then I would have put Time Leader up, but conditions don't look like being ideal for him and that will put an extra test on his stamina. Bet365 have a 6 place market and couldn't put anyone off throwing a few quid at Shantou Flyer in that market given his record at Cheltenham. Bets given on Monday Its On The Line 3pts @ 5/2 with Bet365 (take up to 15/8) Sine Nomine 1pt e/w @ 16/1 with Bet365, William Hill and Betfred (take up to 10/1) Bet added on Thursday Quintin's Man 0.5pts e/w @ 25/1 with Bet365, BetVictor and Betfred (take up to 16/1)

Granted Cheltenham is obviously going to take most of the focus, but Tuesday also sees the start of the Australian jumps season at Warrnambool and I am back to cover the season for the 5th time. It has been 2 very profitable years and a couple of small losses. What started as something to focus on during Covid has turned into a real passion. All being well I should be taking in the all jumps card at Pakenham next month on my visit to Australia and I can't wait to see some of these horses in the flesh. Right onto Warrnambool and we have 3 races an Open Hurdle, a Maiden Hurdle and an Open Steeple. Race 1 There is actually a Cheltenham link in this first race as Crosshill featured in races against Galopin Des Champs and Gentlemansgame among others when trained by Jessie Harrington. He ran a couple of promising races at Pakenham and in the Grand Annual last year and whilst he did go on to win a maiden on the flat his other jumps starts weren't great. He hasn't run over hurdles in Australia, but his last run in Ireland was a win over hurdles at the Punchestown Festival so he's very capable. He's trialed well and ran a respectable race on the flat last month. He does have to give weight away to the very short price fav here though. Teofilo Star ran in 3 hurdles last year and after finishing 2nd at Pakenham he broke his maiden tag over course and distance in May. He impressed that day and he was even more impressive 3 weeks later at Sandown in a BM120 when winning by 15L. He went back on the flat after that and whilst he was well beaten in the Brisbane Cup he did when a BM100 at Flemington just before. He's not run in a race since, but won his last hurdles trial. Serenade The Stars was behind Crosshill in the trial at Terang last week. He won the first maiden hurdle of the season last year and was then 2nd in his other 2 hurdle starts. He will be fit from the flat. If Crosshill could run to his Irish form he would be over priced, but I don't think he's been quite up to that level and Teofilo Star looks a potential top notcher over hurdles this season and he ought to win as his odds suggest although 1/14 is very short. Its a race to watch. Race 2 Only 2 of these have raced over hurdles and Buffalo Bill has had 20 goes without. That clearly makes things tricky especially as none of these have raced at that high a level on the flat. Tarn's Prince is the favourite and he trialed well against some useful horses last week at Terang. I am though going to take a chance on Elementry. Very unusual for top connections to send a horse over hurdles after just one flat run, which granted was awful. He won his 2nd hurdles trial here and beat Antequera into 2nd place. He seemed to enjoy jumping and his jockey seemed keen to try and teach him how to race. He's been very well backed which whilst annoying in one way does add to the confidence that he's going to go very well. Elementry 1pt @ 7/2 with William Hill Race 3 There can't be many horses that have run in the Arc and then won a steeplechase, but Nelson has done that having been behind Enable in the Arc and then winning a chase at Coleraine last August. He could win this, but he is very short for me and there could be value elsewhere. Police Camp is very experienced and was 2nd at a big price in the Grand Annual last year which was actually his last run. I suspect he will need this. Mighty Oasis caused a huge shock when he won the Thackeray over course and distance beating the Grand Annual winner Rockstar Ronnie. He had been 2nd in this race last year and he usually runs his race. Instigator has been a solid hurdler and is making his chasing debut here. He had one steeple trial here and it was OK. I want to see him in a race though before backing him. Yulong Prince showed some decent form when last seen over fences in 2022. He won a couple over fences including over course and distance and was 2nd to Flying Agent, who was superb that year, in a couple of the big races. Clearly he's been injured since, but he ran in a Picnic (Aussie version of point to point but on the flat) race a couple of weeks ago and then trialed well last week at Terang. I'm certain we will have some better punting cards in during the rest of the season, but I will have a couple of small bets on Mighty Oasis and Yulong Prince as I think they are over priced and we might just get Nelson beat. Yulong Prince 0.5pts @ 17/2 with William Hill Mighty Oasis 0.5pts @ 7/1 with Bet356

I will start the update with a bit of an apology as I haven't been keeping this as up to date as I usually do and a lot has happened in the last month or so since I last updated things. Lets start with the current market leader for the race Ferns Lock who had a very easy success at Thurles a few days after the previous update. It was an OK field (Romeo Magico was 2nd) and he did it in the style of a classy horse. My first thought though was that he should skip Cheltenham and go to Aintree. He is a keen, free going sort and he is highly unlikely to be gifted an easy lead at Cheltenham. I mentioned after Down Royal that he might struggle to stay 3m2f at this stage of his career and this performance backed up that thought. What was really interesting was after the race on Racing TV Ruby Walsh also said he should go to Aintree and not Cheltenham. Then a couple of weeks ago his trainer also said that Aintree would be more his cup of tea, but they may as well give Cheltenham a go. As I have mentioned before his owner has backed him for Cheltenham and I just wonder if he hadn't if he would even be going for the race. I think he is the best horse in the race and he could run in better races than hunter chases, but I'm going to be bold and say at least one other will outstay him. I'd even be tempted to place lay him on the day for a low risk lay as I sort of think he might either win or really paddle after the last and more than a couple go past him. Christie also said that Ferns Lock is a better horse than Winged Leader and Vaucelet. I get the feeling neither of those two will be heading to Cheltenham, but he did have plans to send Ramillies to The Festival if he ran well at Naas next time. As it turned out though he just looked a non stayer again so it would seem a bit pointless to run him. He made most of the running alongside Billaway to start with and then Its On The Line from about half-way. Jumping the last the pair of them were still upsides, but Its On The Line started to pull away. Then the drama happened as Billaway came from miles back to look as if he was going to go straight pass Its On The Line only for him to pick up again and stay in front. The 7yo was racing pretty lazily for a fair way of the race and whilst the ground was clearly testing I don't think the horse was tired at all. The fact he picked up again once Billaway got to him proved to me he was just idling on the run-in and wanted some company. He will have plenty of company at Cheltenham and we know he stays all day. I put on Twitter before the race that I had backed him for Cheltenham and I still think he is the most likely winner right now. Billaway ran probably his best ever race 1st up as usually he struggles on his first run of the season. I have seen a suggestion that maybe Willie had him straighter this year because he was making his first run later than usual. He fell in this last year and unseated at Punchestown, but his form around that suggests he is still more than capable of playing a part in the finish. It was no surprise to see Hitak pushed out to as big as 33/1 as he never got involved at all. He must be a doubtful runner now. What I hadn't spotted was that Its On The Line has been entered in the Grand National and that led Robbie Wilders of the Racing Post to tip him up in one of their shows on Saturday. He thought that he was going to win easy at Naas, then win at Cheltenham before going to Aintree for the National. The only problem being that is impossible because as soon as you run in a British hunter chase you can't run in a non hunter chase until after the hunter chase season ends. I suspect Mullins doesn't know this either because it would appear to be a waste of money otherwise. It would not surprise me though if he did run in a National at some point. Also entered in the Grand National is Samcro and he ran at the start of the month and was only 3rd to Lifetime Ambition, a horse who is being aimed at the Aintree Foxhunters. So not a bad run, but it just highlighted to me what his win in November did and that is he is on the downgrade. He's as short as 13/2 (Bet365) and he could be triple that price and I still wouldn't want to back him. Famous Clermont won a match at 1/10 at Larkhill last month. He looks set to bid to retain his Walrus crown at Haydock at the weekend, but as I've said all along he looks set to skip Cheltenham to focus on Aintree. Time Leader also looks set to go to Haydock and he was a good winner at Hereford last month. Again though I'd be surprised if he went to Cheltenham before Aintree. Premier Magic also won at 1/10 on Saturday at Brocklesby. It was a very slow time so they clearly went no pace and essentially both wins this season have only told us that he is fit and healthy. I certainly think you couldn't rule him out becoming another dual winner of the race, but it is impossible to know if he is still good enough based on the two runs this year. Rocky's Howya has still not been sighted and that has to be a concern about him running in the race. I always say that it's very hard to back something ante-post for this race before you know it is well because you rarely get to see quotes about the runners. Secret Investor is entered at Fakenham on Friday, but again the trainer has so far said he will skip Cheltenham. Tea Clipper has run twice since the last update and whilst I could give him a pass on the Warwick 2nd the 3rd at Ludlow was a shocker. I think he's better than that, but now he's unlikely to qualify for Cheltenham and sights will need to be lowered. Two British trained pointers have won hunter chases and could go to Cheltenham are Sine Nomine and Quintin's Man. The former ran out an easy winner at Wetherby and whilst you can pick all sorts of holes in her form the fact is we just don't know how good she actually is yet. The well backed favourite Fairly Famous hated the ground and pulled up and the 2nd Bennys King isn't a true stayer at the trip. Like I say though she is clearly a good and the softer the ground next month the better her chance will be. Quintin's Man beat Lalor at Wincanton in good style which was a return to form after a couple of poor efforts pointing this season. He stays and handles the track so could easily run a solid race if they went down this route. He's also in at Haydock on Saturday. One of the big point races of the season is the Coronation Gold Cup at Larkhill and it saw a tremendous finish which saw Grace A Vous Enki and Regatta De Blanc dead heat. I mentioned the former in my last update as he had been impressing in points and this was another top effort. I'd imagine the plan with the latter would still be Cheltenham in May rather than Cheltenham in March. Finally Fier Jaguen made his seasonal return at Garthorpe and won with ease. What is worrying about him though is he jumped out to his right still despite it being a right handed track. I'd imagine Aintree would be more likely than Cheltenham. To sum it all up I still think Its On The Line is the most likely winner at this stage. I doubt his price is likely to change that much now between now and the race, but if you are looking for ante-post multi's I would be sticking him in. NB - Winged Leader was only 3rd in a point on Saturday and that suggest he continues to be on the downgrade and wont be heading to Cheltenham. Also still no entries for Rocky's Howya.