Darran

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Everything posted by Darran

  1. Been a big drift on Frome as the Asian punters clearly fancy the home side. I don't think they are taking into account the fact it could easily be after the lords mayor show for Carshalton and whatever happens Frome are even better value now.
  2. BetVictor Southern League Central Double There is every chance that Tamworth and Hednesford will finish 1st and 2nd in this division this season and they look bankers in their respective Tuesday night games. Hednesford travel to bottom side Leiston who hopeless. Granted they had a 3 game spell where they picked up 7 points, but they then went and lost 8-0 to Bromsgrove last weekend. That is the 2nd time they have conceded 8 this season and they have conceded 58 in just 15 league games. In the 11 games they have lost just 2 have been lost by a single goal and Hednesford on the -1 handicap at 13/10 with Betfair and Paddy Power looks a good bet as well as putting in them in a double. Hednesford scored 5 on Saturday in the FA Trophy and they will surely be looking to get around that number here. Tamworth host Alvechurch who are nowhere near the side who got to the play-off final last season. They have won just 3 games in the league and Tamworth should bounce back from their FA Trophy defeat on Saturday. The double pays 1.26/1 with Marathon. Carshalton v Frome This is an FA Trophy game which obciously couldn't take place on Saturday because Carshalton were in the FA Cup. I put up the home side there and they did well but ultimately found Boston too good. I just wonder if that effort might hinder their performance here. Frome were relegated last season, but are currently top of their division having lost just once in the league. They won on Saturday although to be fair they were playing the bottom tam Barnstaple. That did mean they had a comfortable afternoon though and that might just be a better prep than Carshalton had. At 3/1 with BetVictor they are worth a play. Hednesford -1 3pts @ 13/10 with Betfair and Paddy Power Hednesford/Tamworth double 3pts @ 1.26/1 with Marathon Frome 1pt @ 3/1 with BetVictor
  3. A profitable weekend, but if only Darlo and Stourbridge had of held on it would have been a fantastic weekend. Sounds like Gateshead deserved more out of their game as well.
  4. Kingstonian are now favs for their game as the Macclesfield player's have confirmed they won't be playing so it looks set to be the youth team instead
  5. Not to be for Dulwich tonight, but they played well and gave it their all. Just a shame they gave away two poor goals in the first half and then when they got themselves back in it Carlisle scored what will be one of the goals of the round. Impressive though for Dulwich to have more possession and easy to see why Carlisle are doing as badly as they are.
  6. Not that many league fixtures this weekend with the FA Cup and FA Trophy both taking place this weekend however I have a double and a single. National League South Double The last 2 weekends I have backed Hemel Hempstead and they didn't win either. They should have beaten Eastbourne, but the weather got in the way and then they disappointed against Concord last week. Saturday sees them play a Braintree team who aren't in a good shape at the moment. Their manager left in the week as they don't have any money and he claimed they had the smallest budget in the division. To be fair he is likely to be right given the team was mainly made up of players from leagues below. They started poorly then went on a good spell, but it has gone back to them being poor again. Without a manger it is hard to see them putting in a performance good enough to beat a strong Hemel side. Concord travel to Bath this weekend and I think they will go back to losing ways. As I mentioned last week Concord had a point to prove against Hemel and although I thought Hemel wouldn't want to lose, Concord excelled themselves. Things will be very different at a Bath side who are in good form at the moment and looked good when beating Bath last weekend. The double pays 2.2/1 with Marathon Stratford Town v Coalville Into Step 3 and the BetVictor Southern Premier Central and I am rather keen on Coalville here. Their last league on the 21st October saw them lose their first league game of the season to Hitchin, but they obviously have been playing well and beat Bromsgrove Sporting in the league cup on Tuesday night. This looks a great chance to pick up 3 points against a struggling Stratford Town side. I tipped Tamworth to beat them last month and they lost 3-1. Then in their next league game last Saturday they lost 6-0 to Peterborough Sports. Their only two wins in their last 9 league games came against Leiston and Alvechurch so that doesn't say much. They did draw against them in the reverse fixture in mid September, but Stratford look a lot weaker now and Coalville should take advantage. It seems quite a few bookies have missed the fact this game is on and I have only seen Marathon and Bet365 with odds, but the away side look a good bet. Bath/Hemel Hempstead 2pts double @ 2.2/1 with Marathon Coalville 2.5pts @ 139/100 with Marathon
  7. I did have Dover on my original shortlist given how bad Southend have been. However with Campbell only recently taking over and it being an easier game than usual I decided the Dover price wasn't really big enough. They have been shocking at home this season as well which is another concern, but I can fully understand why people will be wanting to back Dover.
  8. I never understand why tipsters say they won't bet on the FA Cup. I love betting on the FA Cup as it offers the chance to land some lumpy prices as I have done over the years. The 1st Round is my favourite weekend of the season and hopefully I can make it a profitable one. I have 7 singles and a 5 team acca across the weekend. Dulwich Hamlet v Carlisle Gloucester City might be my main team, but I have been going to Dulwich games for around 10 years now. At that point they were lucky to get 300 people through the turnstiles and now you can sometimes add a 0 on to that figure. This season alone they are averaging nearly 2000 for their league games and not surprisingly Friday night's match is a sell out. Fortunately I have been able to get hold of a ticket so will be there hopefully to witness a upset and Dulwich's first ever visit to the 2nd round. I think there is a fair chance that I might. On the face of it backing a team who haven't won a league game since August 24th two divisions below their opponents might not be wise, but Dulwich are nowhere near as bad as that stat suggests. I put them up in the last round when they beat Havant who are the best team in their division so that was no mean feat. Carlisle come into this having only won 2 away games in the league all season and they were both against teams below them in the table. Their win against Macclesfield last week was their first in 7 and given the troubles with them at the moment that is hardly proof they are in good form again. They will not fancy this one bit. Champion Hill is very compact so the crowd will be very close to the action add into the fact that the game is on the BBC so the Carlisle players will know the pressure is on them. Gavin Rose has always set Dulwich up to play football the right way and if they can be clinical in front of goal I am certain they will get the chances to win the game. I think 16/5 (Bet365 and Betfair) is just on the right side of value and hopefully they can get the weekend off to a profitable start. Carshalton v Boston An all Non-League tie here with BetVictor Isthmian Premier Carshalton hosting Natonal League North side Boston. I like the chances of there being an upset here as Carshalton have been hard to beat all season. They have lost just 3 times in the league and only one of those have come in their last 10 although they have drawn their last 5. They have already caused an upset in the previous round having beaten Dagenham & Redbridge so hosting a team from the level below should hold no fears for them. Boston have struggled on their travels in the league and they have only beaten Kettering and AFC Telford away from home. That Telford game was last week, but they clearly have issues away from home given they are unbeaten at home. I think at over 2/1 the home side are value to cause an upset. Stourbridge v Eastleigh I opposed Eastleigh last week given the amount of injuries they had and the fact Harrogate were in decent form, but Harrogate had a bit of a stinker and gifted them 3 of their 4 goals. Even though Stourbridge are two levels below it actually wouldn't surprise me if they give them a harder game than they had last week. Also Eastleigh have looked pretty poor on the road at times this season. Stourbridge have only played 11 league games so far given their cup run and they have lost just twice. Chances are they will be fighting it out for promotion again this season and their current position of 11th is a bit misleading. I think this is one game which will be much closer than the odds and leagues positions suggest. Walsall v Darlington The biggest price selection is Darlington and obviously backing a National League North side to win at a League 2 side should be a big price, but given Walsall's form at the moment Darlington might just be capable of causing an upset. They have lost 6 games on the bounce now and will be coming into this low on confidence. It was a bit disappointing Darlington couldn't beat a 10 man Hereford last week, but it did continue the unbeaten run and they are better than their league position suggests. A risky bet for sure, but I do think they are overpriced to win the game. Gateshead v Oldham Gateshead let me down last Saturday when under performing against Guiseley last week. They hadn't conceded at home for over nine hours and then duly defended badly and let in 3 in one game. They bounced straight back on Tuesday though beating Curzon 3-0. Granted Oldham are going to be at a very different level from Curzon, but they are coming into this game in shocking form and they clearly are one of the worst teams in League 2. They have only won once away all season and in their last 10 games they have only beaten Walsall and Morecombe which doesn't say an awful lot. As long as Gateshead don't defend like they did last week, and the evidence suggests that was a one off, then they have a real chance of causing an upset here in my view. Macclesfield v Kingstonian This game might not even go ahead because of the players strike and it is no surprise that some bookies have stopped betting on the game and that the price of the away side has come in from around 8/1. Kingstonian were one of my ante-post bets in their league this season and they have been frustrating as they haven't won as many matches as they ought to have done, but on their day they are a good side and given all that is going on at Macclesfield it looks a sporting play. Even if the players do get paid they aren't going to be in a good place and if they don't then there must be a chance that Macclesfield play the youth team just to get the game on. If that happens then that Kingstonian price will come in plenty more. Wrexham v Rochdale Rochdale are in the bottom half of League 1 and have lost their last 3 games, but I think they can beat Wrexham here. 2 of those defeats were against top of the table Ipswich and 4th place Oxford. I opposed Wrexham last week, but they beat Bromley thanks to a cracking goal and I do think Wrexham will improve under Dean Keates, but they still have a little way to go and I think they will struggle to beat a League 1 side at the moment. I am surprised that Rochdale are on the drift and they look a good price at odds against. FA Cup Acca I like 5 teams at odds on to win over the weekend. Solihull travel to Oxford City and they ought to have too much for them. Chorley have found life a struggle in the National League and they have started leaking goals again after keeping a few clean sheets. They travel to Mansfield and it would be a surprise if they could get anything out of it. Rotherham's away form is much better than their home form and they can prove to be too strong at Maidenhead. On Sunday Northampton should be more than capable of beating Chippenham and in one of the live games I can see Oxford United easily beating Hayes & Yeading. As an aside it wasn't that long ago I went to watch that game as a league match and now their are 4 levels between them! Dulwich Hamlet 1pt @ 16/5 with Bet365 and Betfair Carshalton 1pt @ 21/10 with Marathon Stourbridge 1pt @ 100/30 with Betfair Darlington 1pt @ 17/2 with Bet365 Gateshead 1pt @ 100/30 with Bet365 Kingstonian 1pt @ 21/4 with Bet365 Rochdale 2pts @ 13/10 with Betway Solihull/Mansfield/Northampton/Oxford United/Rotherham 1pt acca @ 6.3/1 with Marathon
  9. Yeah Frankies mount interfered with the 4th so they put him back to 4th and the other two moved up a place
  10. Amazing race and an amazing performance from both horse and jockey. Must admit I wondered if he might have used a bit too much getting across from the wide draw, but he settled beautifully after that and then to have the guts to fight back and win really was something
  11. Currently 8/1 the field which shows how competitive the race is this year.
  12. The Melbourne Cup is the race that stops a nation and it has long been one of my favourite races. It has been a decent Spring Carnival with my previews having found the 2nd, 3rd and 4th in the Caulfield Cup and then landing the winner of the Cox Plate. It looks a good renewal of the famous race this year and it looks a competitive one as well. Hopefully I can help make you profit on the race which will be live on Sky Sports Racing at 4am Tuesday morning. Cross Counter - Great winner of the race last year when he was only carrying 8-0. This time around he is top weight and will have to carry 9-1 and that automatically makes things trickier for him. After that win he went on to win the Dubai Gold Cup beating Ispolini and then he was a close 4th in the Gold Cup and 3rd in the Goodwood Cup. He was sent off favourite for the Irish St Leger last time, but he was a one paced 4th with the drop in trip not suiting. The fact only four horses in the history of the race have gone back-to-back shows how hard it will be for him and I find it hard to see him winning it again. I do think he has place claims though. Mer De Glace - I was worried the ground wouldn't be quick enough for him ahead of the Caulfield Cup, but he proved that thought to be wrong as he ran out an impressive winner and with a Japanese horse also winning the Cox Plate they have a decent chance of taking another big prize back to Japan. The Caulfield win was his 6th on the bounce and the 0.5kg penalty he got for winning that could have easily been more. The queries I have about his chances though are the trip especially if it is on the softer side and the fact there looked to be a few unlucky horses in behind him at Caulfield and it wouldn't surprise me if at least one was able to reverse the form. Master Of Reality - Frankie Dettori is desperate to win this race and if he repeated the 1L 3rd to Stradivarius in the Gold Cup he would have an obvious chance. I'm surprised he was dropped in trip after that to 1m6f twice and he looked a bit one pace in both of his following starts at the Curragh. Will probably try to make the running from stall 1, but I think he will find a few with more pace than him in the finish. Mirage Dancer - I fancied him in the Caulfield Cup and he ran a cracker to finish 3rd. Unlike some in that race I thought the Caulfield Cup was the race for him over this contest and I don't really fancy him here. Southern France - Beat Downdraft by 2L off level weights at the Curragh in August and he now has to give 4lbs to him in this. He was then 3rd in the Irish St Leger in front of Cross Counter and at these weights he should in theory beat him again. Now trained in Australia he looks to have claims of running well based on his European form with 2m on good or softer looking ideal for him. Hunting Horn - Did have Downdraft behind him in the Moonee Valley Gold Cup last time, but that race was run at a very slow tempo which would have suited him and this is going to be a very different test. He isn't for me. Latrobe - Last year's Irish Derby winner and he had one Australian start last year when only just beaten a head in the Mackinnon Stakes over 2000m here. This season he has been OK and did win a Group 3 at Leopardstown in August, but he doesn't seem in as good form as he was last year and the trip is a question mark as well. I would be a bit surprised if he was good enough. Mustajeer - I thought the Ebor winner ran a cracking prep for this when a close 6th in the Caulfield Cup on his first start for Kris Lees. He came from a long way back and was finishing his race off nicely. He should relish the step up to 3200m, he has been given a kind draw and he is one for the shortlist. Rostropovich - Was 5th in this last year when he had a terrible draw in 21. Drawn much better this year, but in 3 runs so far this prep he hasn't run well and although he was given a bit of a strange ride in the Caulfield Cup last time the call has to be to take on. Twilight Payment - Beat Latrobe in the Curragh Cup back in June, but only 7th last time in the Irish St Leger and given he is 6 (7 in the Southern Hemisphere) he doesn't really strike as one who is going to be ahead of the handicapper. Finche - Another one to return having run in this last year and he ran well to finish 4th. A lot of experts seem to want to forgive his effort in the Caulfield Cup given he had a poor draw, but I was a bit disappointed with it myself and it was a step back from the 2nd in the Turnbull. I know he was 5th, but he wasn't exactly finishing off the race well and he didn't last year either. I can see him finishing in the top half dozen again, but I am opposing for the win. Prince Of Arran - He loves Australia and his form figures Down Under are very impressive and include a 3rd in this last year. Arguably the one thing that might have stopped him from winning was the fact he had to run in the Lexus 3 days before to get into the race and if he didn't have to do that I suspect we would have seen an even better performance. This year has clearly been all about coming back as he ran a good race in the Ebor before finishing 3rd in the September Stakes at Kempton. He was just beaten in the Herbert Power by The Chosen One before putting in a good performance to land the Geelong Cup. I think he has to be one of the leading contenders. Raymond Tusk - I thought he ran a massive race in the Ebor and was arguably a bit unlucky to not win the race. The fact he didn't might help him because he obviously would have had more weight to carry. He had solid form earlier in the season in good races and you would imagine this and the Ebor were the targets after he ran in the Gold Cup. A leading player for me. Downdraft - Was hugely impressive in winning the Hotham (used to be the Lexus) on Saturday to get him into the race and on the face of it he didn't have that hard a race as he won as he liked. Ignore the 3rd in the Moonee Valley Gold Cup as the tempo was against him. Only 3 horses since 1960 have done the double and that shows you how hard it is, but a run as good as Prince Of Arran last year wouldn't be a total surprise. Magic Wand - I can't have her at all. She is so consistent and keeps running well in lots of good races as she did when 4th in the Cox Plate last time, but she doesn't look like she has any chance of staying 2m and she has a terrible draw in 24. Would be a surprise to me if she could win this. Neufbosc - His Australian form is awful and he looks to have no chance. Sound - The Caulfield Cup run wasn't completely hopeless, but would still be a shock winner. Surprise Baby - This will only be his 11th start and he has won half of his races to date. That includes an Adelaide Cup over this trip and he won the Group 3 Bart Cummings here earlier in his prep. Looks unexposed and progressive, but the concern for me is that his form doesn't look as good as the Europeans or those coming out of the Caulfield Cup. The draw hasn't been kind either and although he wouldn't be a surprise winner I get the feeling he won't be good enough. Constantinople - He didn't always look the most genuine when trained by Aidan, but he was very unlucky in the Caulfield Cup as he got no run early in the straight and was flying when he did eventually get out. He looks to have a lot in his favour and Flemington should suit him a lot more than Caulfield did. His attitude is a concern if he needs to battle late on so that is a concern about him winning, but he certainly looks a cracking e/w bet as I can't see him out of the frame. Il Paradiso - I don't think Ryan Moore has chosen Magic Wand over him because his lightest weight in the last 12 months is 8-6 and he only has to carry 8-4. Has a similar looking profile to 2017 winner Rekindling having finished 5th in the St Leger last time. Unexposed and clearly wants this sort of trip given he bolted up over 2m at the Curragh in July. That wasn't a strong race though and he was done for toe in the St Leger and even though this is 2 furlongs further it has to be a concern if it does turn into more of a sprint. Steel Prince - Booked himself a run for this when beating Surprise Baby in the Andrew Ramsden here in May. Was due to be favourite for the Herbert Power, but he had to be scratched as he played up in the stalls and he wasn't great in the Geelong Cup after that. Looks to have a fair bit to do for me. The Chosen One - Got a shocking ride on Saturday in the Hotham and his win over Prince Of Arran 3 starts back reads quite well. Even so looks unlikely to be good enough. Vow And Declare - Ran a cracking prep for this when finishing 2nd in the Caulfield Cup and every chance he can reverse form with the winner over this longer trip. Won a Group 3 over 3100m in June and then was given a break before finishing a very good 4th in the Turnbull. Looks a progressive horse and has a superb chance, but the draw of 21 does hinder things. Does have a turn of foot though so if he gets luck in running I think he will be bang there. Youngstar - I fancied her for the race last year and she ran well to finish 6th, but to me she has gone backwards since then. The one thing you can say was her best run since was her last start, but she hardly looks capable of even equaling her run last year let alone top it. Summary - Down the card I have narrowed it down to the following 6 Southern France, Mustajeer, Prince Of Arran, Raymond Tusk, Constantinople and Vow And Declare. The two of those I am going to leave out of the first 4 are Southern France and Mustajeer. I think it is a tricky renewal this year, but I am just siding with Vow And Declare as the main selection. He looks progressive and the Caulfield Cup run was superb. The draw is a concern, but that is factored into the price for me as everything else is in his favour. If Constantinople was guaranteed to put it all in I would have had him on top. He looked very unlucky at Caulfield and although he is unproven over this trip he is bred to stay. He has a great draw in 7 and I just can't see him out of the frame. Raymond Tusk goes in next as he could easily have won the Ebor granted more luck in running. I'm not sure if he is going to be quite good enough to win this, but he certainly looks up to hitting the frame. Prince Of Arran loves it in Melbourne (who can blame him!) and he looks over priced e/w. 1st Vow And Declare 2nd Constantinople 3rd Raymond Tusk 4th Prince Of Arran NB Check the bookies e/w terms. If you can get on with Skybet they are going 7 places and Paddy Power are going 6 with some others going 5. Be careful if betting with Bet365 as in their Australian market they will only be going 3 places as that is the Australian terms and they will have a separate UK market paying better e/w terms.
  13. The BBC version was called Ceefax and I was lucky enough to work on the Racing pages for a couple of years when William Hill used to supply the pages. Ceefax itself was stopped a few years ago, but the red button ran a Ceefax like content service and it is that which the BBC are scrapping.
  14. Eastleigh v Harrogate I must admit I get the feeling Eastleigh are going to call this game off given their injury crisis and there is an inspection planned in the morning, but Harrogate are a big price at 15/8. I was tempted to put them up in the first place, but on given it a further thought I think they are a bet. Eastleigh have a lot of players missing through injury at the moment, especially in defence and given Harrogate have been in great form of late you would fancy them to take full advantage of that fact. Harrogate have almost gone unnoticed given they made a slowish start, but all of a sudden they find themselves in 4th place just 4 points of the top of the table. All things considered I would make them favourites so if it does go ahead they look a good bet. Harrogate 1pt @ 15/8 with BetVictor
  15. In normal circumstances I’d have been all over us but we are short on players and for that reason I couldn’t be backing us. If we had been playing anyone half decent I’d have opposed us but the good thing for us is Curzon are crap so we might get away with it. Nothing at step 3 for me tomorrow
  16. I often mention about football betting being all about small margins and sometimes things will fall in your favour and sometimes they won't which was the case on Tuesday. Bromley should have beaten Stockport, but despite going close a few times in the 2nd half they couldn't quite manage a goal. So a disappointing end to the month, but November has plenty to look forward to and I can't wait to get stuck into the FA Cup next weekend. First though we have a full set of league fixtures and 5 bets have caught my eye. Wrexham v Bromley Two teams who I put up ante-post for the National League face each other on Saturday and it would have been nice if it had been 1st v 2nd, instead its 22nd v 1st as Wrexham have had a disastrous season. Given the way the season has gone Wrexham fans will be especially frustrated that their season has gone so badly because before a ball was kicked it really looked a good opportunity for them to go and get promotion in a wide open division. Dean Keates needs to turn things around fast, but although he has seen them progress in the FA Cup and the Tunnock's Cup the league form continues to be disappointing and they have only picked up 2 points in their last 6 games. I'm sure Keates will turn them around, but this will be a really tough game for them and Bromley look a very big price to pick up 3 points. Wrexham have been well backed during Thursday (I'm guessing down to the Asian punters) and that has meant a decent drift on the away side. As I mention above Bromley should have won on Tuesday and they continue to look like a side who have every right to be challenging for the title.There is no reason for them to be as big as 13/5 and it is well worth taking. Blyth Spartans v Farsley Celtic I mentioned the about Blyth's improved form and they won that game against Curzon which they followed up with a really good 2-2 against Chester. They look a big price at home to Farsley. When I tipped Celtic up to beat Kidderminster a couple of weeks ago I mentioned that despite their good form they had a pretty kind fixture list. They then duly put in a poor performance in defeat. I think this game will be a lot closer than the bookies have it and at 13/5 I will take a chance on the home team continuing their improved form. Darlington v Hereford Another team in the North East who are improving are Darlington and they have won 3 on the bounce now including a 1-0 win when they hosted Kidderminster on Wednesday night. I fancy them to beat a Hereford side who aren't doing all that well under Russel Slade. They have won just 3 of their last nine games and only the win against Gateshead is of any value. They lost to Bradford Park Avenue and Southport in their last two games and Dalrington look the better team at the moment. Gateshead v Guiseley It is a North East special this week as I am also tipping up Gateshead who look a big price at odds against. They haven't played a league game since they beat Gloucester 1-0 on October 12th and they were completely dominant in that match. Indeed one Gloucester fan mentioned it could easily have been a 7-0 defeat. They have the FA Cup to look forward to next weekend, but I am sure they won't let that get in the way here especially as Guiseley aren't in good form at the moment. Just the one win in their last 6 games and they have lost their last 3 away games 3-1, 3-1 and 4-1. Gateshead look a big price at odds against. Concord v Hemel Hempstead I put up Hemel last week and they let the double down, but they should have won and the shocking weather last Saturday also had a part to play. This is an interesting game given the Hemel manager was in charge of Concord last season and he took a few players with him when he changed clubs as well. Not surprisingly given Concord reached the play-offs, Hemel are having a very good season and they are looking very strong as I pointed out last weekend. You can be certain the former Concord people now at Hemel will not be wanting to lose this one. Obviously that also gives Concord incentive as well, but they have dropped away after a good first month or so of the season and they have lost their last 5 league games. If this was a normal game I would have gone bigger on Hemel, but there is that slight difference to it so I am sticking to a point. Even so Hemel are the better team and have to be backed at current odds. Bromley 1pt @ 27/10 with BetVictor Blyth Spartans 1pt @ 13/5 with BetVictor Darlington 1pt @ 67/50 with Marathon Gateshead 3pts @ 109/100 with Marathon Hemel Hempstead 1pt @ 31/20 with BetVictor
  17. Small margins again as Bromley should have won. They didn’t we move on to Saturday
  18. Not massively. Thought County were lacking in the final 3rd on Saturday and they seem to be relying on long range goals a lot. Their form away from home has to be a concern as well, but then Woking like you say haven't won in ages. I think it is one of those games where any of the results wouldn't surprise.
  19. A late winner from Ebbsfleet helped make it a profitable day on Saturday with Fylde also picking up 3 points. Hopefully I can end October on a good note especially as I have my first max bet of the season and there are 4 bets in total. Bromley v Stockport Bromley manager Neil Smith said after the 5-0 thumping of Halifax on Saturday that no one fancied them to be at the top of the table challenging for the title. He clearly didn't read my ante-post preview then! They showed how much strength in depth they have in the squad on Saturday as they had a couple of players missing but those coming in were more than up to the task and it was a superb performance especially in the 2nd half. They are very close to being even money and I think that is a hell of a bet. Their only defeat at home came against Barrow and their is no disgrace in that and apart from that they have been seeing off teams. I would have them around the 4/7 to beat a Stockport side who have struggled away from home all season. The win at Dover was only their 2nd away win all season and that doesn't say much because of Dover's terrible record at home. Also the winning goal, as good as it was, was a complete fluke and they also lost at York in the FA Cup. Going to Bromley is a going to be a much tougher test especially as it will be their 2nd long journey in 3 days for the part time County. In my view Betway's 19/20 looks a complete gift. Dagenham & Redbridge v Barrow Seems a bit harsh on Barrow to ask them to go to Torquay on Saturday and then to Dagenham on Tuesday, but that is what the fixture list has thrown up. Barrow's run of 7 wins came to an end on Saturday as Torquay beat them 4-2 although they weren't helped by the fact John Rooney was sent off for a handball which may not have been. Clearly they are a good side, but Dagenham are good as well and they have only lost once in their last ten. They have made themselves very hard to beat and won on Saturday beating Wrexham. I think what makes Dagenham value to win the game is the fact its a 2nd long trip for Barrow in such a short space of time and that they are hard to beat. Dover v Eastleigh I have to take on Dover at home. Stockport were a big price against them on Saturday, but I doubted Stockport's ability to win away from home. Dover duly lost at home again though and it is hard to see why they are such short priced favourites to win this. Dover aren't especially in good form either with just 2 wins in their last 9 games and they have only picked up 1 point in their last 4. Eastleigh are solid if unspectacular and they showed that again on Saturday when drawing with Woking 1-1. That was their 5th draw in their last 10, but they have only lost 1 of those. They look in better shape than Dover at the moment, especially as Dover suffered more injuries on Saturday, and I would make them around 7/4-13/8 so for them to be as big as 61/25 that looks too big for me. Sutton United v Halifax To a certain extent I think I got away with the Ebbsfleet bet on Saturday as not only did they have to play with an outfield player in goal for the last 15 minutes, but Sutton were the better side in the 2nd half. I know it sounds daft saying that this looks a good opportunity for them to win again given they are bottom of the last 10 form table with just 1 win in that time, but I think it does. That improved performance on Saturday sets them up for this and Halifax have to travel to South London for the 2nd time in 3 days and for a part-time side that is going to be pretty tough, especially given the drubbing they got on Saturday. They aren't in the best of form either with no win in 3 in the league having drawn with Chorley and lost to Boreham Wood and they also lost to Harrogate in the FA Cup. This game just strikes me as one that could be one of those strange looking Tuesday night results on paper, but in theory there is hope for Sutton in my view and at 2/1 they look a spot of value. Bromley 5pts @ 19/20 with Betway Dagenham & Redbridge 1pt @ 33/20 with Marathon Eastleigh 1pt @ 61/25 with Marathon Sutton 1pt @ 2/1 with Betway
  20. I think everyone has different experiences with different bookies. Also depends what you are betting on I think
  21. Darran

    Cox Plate

    Cracking start to the day and a hell of a ride from Damien Lane on the winner and she is a very good horse. Solid run again from Magic Wand and landed ew money with the 4 places. Kings Will Dream couldn’t overcome the draw but ran well.
  22. They are the one bookie who have never limited me and I’ve taken a few quid off them.
  23. Bet365 have some trophy prices up in guessing like the early rounds of the fa cup it’s those games they are betting in play on
  24. Darran

    Cox Plate

    To have 2nd, 3rd and 4th in the Caulfield Cup and a fast finishing 2nd in The Everest was frustrating, but at least Mirage Dancer gave us a return at a decent price. The Spring Carnival moves to Moonee Valley and Saturday morning at 6.55 sees the Cox Plate. Winx has won the last 4 runnings so we now have a proper betting event with her retirement and it is a fascinating field even if we don't have anything of her class in the field. You can give around half the field a serious chance as well. The race will be live on Sky Sports Racing Black Heart Bart - Caused a massive shock when winning the Group 1 Underwood Stakes at 100/1 at Caulfield last month. He then ran another cracking race when 2nd to Cape Of Good Hope in the Group 1 Caulfield Stakes again at Caulfield. Clearly re-found his form, but surely doesn't win this as a 9yo. Avilius - On face value was disappointing when only 4th in the Caulfield Stakes, but the way the race was run was against him and he found himself why too far back. Was very progressive on in hist first prep in Australia and was 4th behind Winx in this last year on the back of 4 wins. He then stepped up again in his Autumn prep ending up winning two Group 1's at Rosehill. A little disappointing this prep having only won the Group 1 Colgate Optic White Stakes at Randwick in 4 starts. When I was watching him his race in the Autumn I thought he looked a Cox Plate winner, but the problem is he doesn't seem in quite the same form and I wonder if he is going to be quite good enough to win. Kluger - His 2nd to Winx in the Queen Elizabeth in April stands out as top form, the problem is Lys Gracieux beat him in Japan last year and given that one has improved since it is hard to see him reversing the form. Harlem - On his day he has some top class form and the 3rd in the Caulfield Stakes was one of his better runs, but at the same time he has some really poor form at this level especially away from Flemington. He is easy enough to pass over. Homesman - 2nd in last year's Caulfield Cup and was impressive when winning his first race since in a Group 2 here last month. Was then 2nd to Black Heart Bart before running home 6th in the Caulfield Stakes. As good as he is his form doesn't suggest he is up to winning this. Kings Will Dream - This ex UK trained runner went off favourite for last year's Caulfield Cup only for him stumble leaving the stalls and find himself way too far back. I was pretty keen on him for that and he flew home well to finish 6th. He then ran in this race, but sadly broke down very badly quite early on. It was amazing he even survived let alone be able to run in the race a year later. His new trainer Chris Waller has brought him along steadily as you would expect and on his 3rd run back he won the Turnbull at Flemington. That looks a strong form race given how the horses from that race ran in the Caulfield Cup last week. Granted he doesn't have the best of draws, but he should continue to improve and I think there is a real chance that he could give Waller and Bowman a 5th Cox Plate on the trot. Te Akau Shark - Was very impressive when winning at Group 2 level in New Zealand in November and was a fast finishing 2nd in the Group 1 Epsom Handicap at Randwick last time. That was over 1600m and it suggests he will enjoy the step up to 2000m for the first time. The problem is that Group 2 win in New Zealand is the height of his achievements and he needs to improve again to land this. Danceteria - The only British trained runner in the field and his 4th in the Eclipse would suggest he isn't out of this and he then went onto win a Group 1 in Germany. That was his last start though and he was forced to miss the Caulfield Stakes thanks to some mucus. I thought he had a chance in that and it is a shame we didn't get to see how he shaped up there. I can see him running well, but I'm just not sure he is going to be up to winning a Cox Plate. Lys Gracieux - Duel Grade 1 winner in Japan including the Takarzuka Kinen in June on her last start. It was a very impressive victory and although the 2nd didn't do much for the form when coming over for the Arc I suspect the ground had a lot to do with that. The form of her 3rd in the QE II Cup at Sha Tin in April looks world class form and she does look like the one they all have to beat. Magic Wand - Before Winx started her winning sequence it was Adian O'Brien and Ryan Moore who teamed up to win this with Adelaide in 2014. It was a hell of a ride given the poor draw he had and Magic Wand has drawn much better in 3. She is so consistent and ran another solid race when 2nd to Magical in the Irish Champion Stakes last time. If she runs to that level again then she is going to be hard to keep out of the frame. The problem is she hasn't won since Royal Ascot last year so there is a doubt about her actually getting her head in front. Cape Of Good Hope - A former stablemate to Magic Wand landed the Caulfield Stakes on his Australian debut for his new trainers. Clearly if building on that he will have a leading chance here, but my concern is the form of the Caulfield Stakes given how the race was run and my feeling is Avilius will be able to reverse the form. Mystic Journey - Connections are very bullish about the Tasmanian raiders chances and she was favourite for this race at one stage. She has won 11 of her 16 starts and was very impressive in the All Star Mile at Flemington back in March. Granted the race wasn't run to suit in the Turnbull last time, but even so I was still a bit disappointed with her 5th. The trip is still a concern as well so as much as I wouldn't be surprised if she did turn out to be good enough to win I am going to pass her over despite being my idea of the winner for a long time after that All Star Mile win. Verry Elleegant - Her chances rely on the ground being testing and it doesn't look like that is going to happen. Won a Group 2 at Randwick earlier in the month, but that form is below what will be needed here and was well behind Avilius prior to that. Castelvecchio - The only 3yo in the race and that means he gets plenty of weight. Was 2nd at Randwick last time behind a very promising horse in Shadow Hero and he has no worries about the trip. The question for me is if he is quite good enough to win this at the moment as the older horses look decent, but he has claims for sure. Summary - I certainly wouldn't want to rule out Danceteria and Mystic Journey, but they both just miss out in my first 4 home. The main selection is Lys Graciuex. I know she is the favourite, but she is a worthy one and she does look on paper to have the best form in the race. Japan took the Caulfield Cup last week and they can add the Cox Plate in my view. 2nd in I am putting Kings Will Dream who I really do think is over priced and should improve on the Turnbull victory on his 4th start back from injury. Magic Wand is so consistent and I find it hard to see her out of the frame if she runs up to her usual standard. I am sticking in Avilius for 4th as he is better than he was able to show at Caulfield last time. 1st Lys Gracieux 2nd Kings Will Dream (e/w) (Betway, Betfair and Paddy Power are 4 places) 3rd Magic Wand (e/w) 4th Avilius
  25. Spennymoor the right favs for sure, but they do look a bit short in the betting. At the same time I wouldn't really want to back us. We were much better against Bradford last weekend especially in the 2nd half, but I do think Spennymoor are improving. I would be happy with a point.