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Everything posted by Darran

  1. Possibly this afternoon, but might not be until tomorrow. I know BetVictor priced up the previous round so we should get something.
  2. A small profit on Saturday thanks to Dulwich, Harrogate and Hartlepool. Was nearly so much better with 3 of the other bets drawing but certainly happy to keep things ticking over. Onto tonight and I have 4 bets. Kidderminster v Farsley Celtic The home side usually get backed from the Asian punters and this has happened yet again with this match tonight. Earlier this morning Farsley themselves had been backed into 6/5 and then the market has made a massive shift towards Kiddie and they are as short as evens now. The reason the Asian market punters love Kiddie is I think because they always seem to produce good stats on the shots both for and against side of things. This of course though doesn't actually mean a great deal in my view when it comes to results on the pitch especially at this level. They have only managed 4 wins in the league this season and have been dumped out of the FA Cup by lower league opposition. I watch a lot of Step 2 football in the flesh and I can be pretty certain that the stats that are produced actually have little baring on what the quality of the shots during the game actually are. Kiddie fans have said how poor they have been and their league position certainly backs that up. The other key thing for me here is the fact they haven't played a game of football since September 28th. As Stafford knocked them out of the FA Cup they didn't have a game for 2 of those Saturday's and then they missed the other because of international call-ups. I used to think that time off like that was helpful at this stage of the season, but actually I am not sure it is anymore. The bets I have had on the back of these sort of breaks have usually lost because in actual fact the team are ring rusty having not kicked a ball in anger for so long. They did beat Altrincham in their last home league game on September 14th, but then Altrincham are yet to win away from home this season and are below Kiddie in the table. They have finally been taken over so there should be more positivity around the club and they have made one new signing so far. I suspect more will follow, but it will take time to overhaul a disappointing squad. Celtic have done superbly well so far after gaining promotion last season and have won 5 games on the bounce. Now I do have to add here that they have had a pretty kind fixture list. They have beaten Bradford Park Avenue, Kettering, Leamington, Curzon and then on Saturday Alfreton. That isn't a great bunch apart from Alfreton, but even they aren't in the best of form right now. However it does show they are scoring goals for fun as they have scored 15 goals in that time and they have scored in their last 9 league games. Obviously they won't be as fresh as the home side as they played on Saturday, but they will be match fit which could be the bigger factor. At 23/10 Celtic have to be the play as yet again Kiddie are way too short in the betting. AFC Rushden & Diamonds v Banbury The home side cost us on Saturday, but I am going to oppose them again here. Banbury have had a superb season so far and have only lost 1 of their last 9 games. They were involved in a thriller on Saturday against Biggleswade which they won 3-2 in injury time and I think they can back that up with a win here. St Ives Town v Royston Town I am a bit concerned about how the away side will react to blowing a good chance of getting to the First Round of the FA Cup on Saturday, but this does look a good game for them to try and bounce back in and they look way over priced. St Ives have got a lot of injured players and it looks doubtful about them getting any back for tonight. Last Tuesday they drew 4-4 with bottom side Leiston in a game described as one neither team deserved to win. They then lost 1-0 to an Alvechurch side who hadn't won a league game since August and they performed poorly again. Granted Royston haven't won in 4 league games but the two defeats were against Tamworth and Hednesford so they weren't expected to win either of them. I just can't have them as 3/1 shots to win this at all and that is a huge price. Stratford Town v Tamworth The home side look in a right mess at the moment and they have already used over 30 players this season. They sacked their manager a couple of weeks ago and they were forced to cut the budget as well as another 8 players left the team. It has been 10 days since they played a competitive game which they lost 3-0 Lowestoft which is their only win in 7 games and they have lost the other 6. Tamworth were my main bets for the title and they are nicely placed in 3rd after 11 games. They did lose to Darlington in the FA Cup at the weekend, but that was obviously much tougher than this and they will be hoping to get back to winning ways tonight. I think they ought to be odds on to win this so Betway's 7/5 looks too big. Farsely Celtic 2pts @ 23/10 with Bet365 Banbury 1pt @ 44/25 with Marathon Royston 2pts @ 3/1 with William Hill, BetVictor and Betway Tamworth 2.5pts @ 7/5 with Betway
  3. I was talking about the treble sticking South Shields in as well.
  4. What does a treble pay on them just to win? My view would be to do that if it’s big enough. Hitchin ought to win but I’m not one for backing a team away from home at such a short price who are hardly great themselves
  5. Not sure odds on for a handicap bet offers great value myself even though you would expect Gateshead to win by more than one. I would imagine Notts county will rest a few players which would be a concern for them covering the -2 for me. I considered bromsgrove myself but left them alone in the end
  6. It is all about the FA Cup this weekend as Non-League teams will be looking to get into the 1st Round and who knows one of them might get the bye into the 2nd Round. I have 7 bets in the FA Cup although I also have one bet in the BetVictor Southern Premier League Central. Chorley v Spennymoor This two played in the play-off final last season and Spennymoor lost out in a penalty shootout. Spennymoor have suffered from a hangover from that as I have mentioned before, but they certainly seem to be improving and I think they have a chance of causing an upset here. Chorley keep drawing in the league and are also great at keeping clean sheets. In the league it is clearly all about getting a point first and then if they can sneak 3 then great. It is clearly effective although getting points won't keep them up. Given this is a cup tie I can't believe they are going to be so defensively here especially as they won't really want a replay. Spennymoor are good enough to pick them off and I am sure they will want to get back for the play-off heartache. The 5/2 with Bet365 is appealing. Halifax v Harrogate Halifax cost us last week when they were playing a tired Boreham Wood side, but still failed to break them down. That made it 3 games now that they have failed to score at home and given Harrogate's form has seen a big improvement they look value at Betway's 13/5 to reach the 1st Round. Harrogate are unbeaten in 7 games now and got a great win at Yeovil last Saturday. They frustrated their hosts and I can imagine they will be capable of doing the same here and I just don't think there is as big a gap as the betting suggests their is. Havant & Waterlooville v Dulwich Hamlet Havant should really be doing better than they are in the league and it is their home form that has been letting them down. They have only won 1 of their last 5 home league games and have lost their last two. I think that gives Dulwich a chance here especially as they are performing better on their travels at the moment and I just can't make them as big as the 4/1 Bet365 have made them. Remaining previews will be brief. Maidenhead v Wealdstone Wealdstone having a superb season having only failed to win 2 games and they must fancy their chances of causing an upset here. They had only picked up 2 points in their previous 8 games before beating Ebbsfleet last week and Wealdstone will be a tougher test in my view. Hartlepool v Brackley Surprised the home side are odds on here. I thought Hignett was unlucky to lose his job, but they certainly showed their class winning 3-0 in their first game since his sacking. They are a good side and given Brackley's away form has not been strong this season I think they can reach the first round here. Welling v Eastleigh Eastleigh are in pretty good form and have only lost one of their last nine games. Welling have had two very easy draws to get to this stage and they have only won one of their last 6 games and that was against bottom of the table Hungerford. The away side are the better team and odds against looks big to me. Oxford City v Margate Margate are frustrating me given they were one of their ante-post tips and they aren't quite consistent enough so far. However on their day they are a good side and with their hosts only having won 2 games in the league all season there is a real chance of an upset here for me. Rushall Olympic v AFC Rushden & Diamonds Rushden haven't won in 7 games now. They drew 1-1 for 4 games on the bounce and then lost 8-2 and 3-0 twice so that is 14 goals conceded in their last 3 games. Rushall are having a little blip after a superb start to the season having lost their last two, but this looks a good opportunity to get back to winning ways. Spennymoor 1pt @ 5/2 with Bet365 Harrogate 1pt @ 13/5 with Betway Dulwich Hamlet 1pt @ 4/1 with Bet365 Wealdstone 1pt @ 9/4 with Bet365 and Betway Hartlepool 2pts @ 6/5 with Marathon Eastleigh 2pts @ 111/100 with Marathon Margate 1pt @ 71/20 with Marathon Rushall Olympic 2.5pts @ 53/50 with Marathon
  7. The Caulfield Cup is do off at 7.15am and has plenty of horses familiar to UK punters. Sadly it seems you won't be able to watch it as RacingTV has the rights and they don't seem to want to show it. What you can do is get a account and watch their superb coverage if you want to watch it live. Hartnell - Been a superb horse moving to Australia and although he doesn't win very often now he is still able to run to a really high level. It is interesting they are running him back into a handicap and his 3rd in the Turbull at Flemington last time was a top effort as I think the winner has a great chance in the Cox Plate next week. He doesn't have a great draw here and it is hard to see him winning, but he should run another good race. Mirage Dancer - Has got some very good form when trained by Stoute and although the defeat at 4/6 at Glorious Goodwood looks poor at first glance he was beaten by Desert Encounter so it is actually good form. He was 2nd to last years Caulfield Cup Best Solution at the July Meeting last year and there are plenty of other form lines which give him an obvious chance here. Mer De Glace - An interesting runner from Japan and comes here chasing a 6 timer. The problem is he has a terrible draw and he also looks like he might need a rock hard track which he won't get so I will pass him over here. Mustajeer - The Ebor winner who is more than likely using this as a prep run for the Melbourne Cup next month. No doubt he will be staying on late and it is more about looking for a good run for that than winning this in my view. Rostropovich - Won't be a dry eye in the house if he wins as jockey Dwayne Dunn's father passed away this week. Was 2nd in last year's Irish Derby and a really good 5th in the Melbourne Cup. Made a pleasing return in the Makybe Diva over 1600m and then didn't get the best of rides in the Turnbull. Doesn't have the best draw here but I would imagine he will be closer to the pace and he has the form to go well. Finche - Finished one place in front of Rostropovich in the Melbourne Cup and has done well this prep having moved to Chris Waller. He won the Kingston Town at Randwick over 2000m and then was beaten a short head by Kings Will Dream in the Turbull. He will enjoy the step up in trip and it is easy to see why he is at the top of the market. Gold Mount - Been very well travelled and found himself back in the UK with Ian Williams this year where he won the Ebor Grand Cup at York in June beating Raheen House and was then 2nd to Red Verdon in the Silver Cup over the same course and distance the following month. He does have form over shorter, but I just wonder if this is a prep for the Melbourne Cup especially as he was 4th in the Dubai Gold Cup in March. Red Verdon - Didn't get the clearest of runs in this last year when only 11th but it does sort of back up the view that he needs further than 2400m now. Bit disappointing in the Ebor last time. Angel Of Truth - Won the Australian Derby at Randwick in April and clearly enjoys testing ground looking at his form. Suspect he has been aimed at this and has run creditably over shorter trips so far this prep although the ground doesn't look like being testing enough. Big Duke - Former UK trained horse and was a great 4th in the Melbourne Cup during his first year over here. He hasn't won since before that though and although has had the odd good run since he is easily passed over here. Constantinople - Has the form to win this especially his 2nd to Logician in the Great Voltigeur last time. The problem is he doesn't look the most genuine horse in the world so will he actually go through with his effort? He has a cracking draw though and can win this. Mr Quickie - Won the Queensland Derby in June and made a superb return when flying home in the fastest 200m of the day in the Makybe Diva when 3rd. The temp and pattern of the racing meant he didn't really have a chance in the Turnbull last time and he should do a lot better here. Crown Prosecutor - Won the New Zealand Derby in March at 100/1 and hasn't done too badly since. Chances are he has a bit to find though. Vow And Declare - Is weighted to beat Finche based on his 4th in the Turnbull and that was a very good effort first up. Was 2nd to Mr Quickie in the Queensland Derby and then beat Big Duke in the Tattersall's Cup a couple of weeks later. Good draw and looks to have decent claims. Brimham Rocks - Poor draw and the win at Caulfield two starts back sticks out like a sore thumb compared to the rest of his form. The Chosen One - Drawn in 22 which probably will stop him from getting close I would imagine. Good winner of the Herbert Power over course and distance last week just beating Prince Of Arran. Qafila - Won the South Australian Derby in May, but suspect she won't be good enough to land this. Wolfe - Won the Coogny Cup on Wednesday to win a ballot exemption for this and has been running well this prep. A decent run wouldn't surprise. Summary - I have a shortlist of 6. Mirage Dancer, Rostropovich, Finche, Constantinople, Mr Quickie and Vow And Declare. I'm going to side with Mirage Dance e/w as the main bet in the race as I like his UK form and as we know the staying UK form seems stronger than the Australian form. Mr Quickie could be the best of the home team so he goes in the 2nd spot. Vow And Declare is weighted to beat Finche so he goes in the 3rd spot especially as he has a better draw. Finally I am putting Constantinople in for 4th as he clearly has the class to win this it is just a case of he puts it all in. 1 Mirage Dancer e/w 2 Mr Quickie 3 Vow And Declare 4 Constantinople NB Skybet and Betfred are offering 5 places. Also in Australia they only pay 3 places so if you bet with Bet365 in the place market it will only be 3 places.
  8. In it's 3rd year now, The Everest is the richest turf race in the world and it brings together the best sprinters in the country and for the 2nd year running Aidan O'Brien has sent over his July Cup winner to add a bit of international flavour to the race. The race will be live on Sky Sports Racing on Saturday morning at 6.15 and here are my thoughts on the runners. Santa Ana Lane - I put him up for this last year because I thought he would handle the Heavy 9 track, but he didn't at all and he showed that running to be all wrong when he landed the VRC Classic at Flemington a month later. He tends to need his first run so it was no surprise that after finishing 5th in the Newmarket to Sunlight he was able then beat that one in the T J Smith 2nd up. He made his return this prep in the Gilgai at Flemington 2 weeks ago and ran a really good race to finish 2nd to Sunlight. That should out him spot on for this and I make him the one they all have to beat. Pierata - Landed the consolation race to The Everest, the Sydney Stakes last year and the went onto finish 3rd behind Santa Ana Lane and In Her Time in the VRC Classic at Flemington. He got his Group 1 win over 1400m here in April when taking the All Aged from Osborne Bulls. He had though already finished behind Nature Strip as mentioned above and Santa Ana Lane in the T J Smith when he was only 5th. This prep he has finished 2nd to Redzel in the Concorde and then reversed that form when winning The Shorts. I like him as a horse and can see him running well, but I do get the impression he isn't quite the best of these. Redzel - Has won both renewals of this contest so far. In 2017 he was clearly the best sprinter in Australia, but he certainly can't lay claim to that now and I thought he only won this last year because the ground was so bad and plenty didn't handle it. He has run 7 times since that run and his only win was the Concorde last month. Last prep he was only 8th in The Galaxy and 6th in the T J Smith. He clearly has it in him to land the hat-trick, but without the ground hindering the others I just can't see him being good enough to do so. Nature Strip - Such a frustrating horse personally as I thought he looked like he would turn into the world's best sprinter, but the two times he has managed to win a Group 1 I had deserted him thinking he never would. The first of those was over 1100m in March in the Galaxy when he just held on from Pierata. Then last time he took the Moir Stakes at Moonee Valley back over 1000m. He is all about speed and I am still surprised he won in heavy ground over 1100m. He has won over 1200m, but that was only a Listed race and I just struggle to see him lasting home although the lack of rain will help in that regard. If he does happen to stay then he certainly has the class to win. Trekking - Booked his spot by winning the Schillaci at Caulfield on Saturday and although that was a decent effort and he did win the Group 1 Stradbroke at Eagle Farm in June he looks unlikely to be good enough for me. Classique Legend - Only had 6 starts and made a winning debut in February. The 2nd in the Shorts when finishing behind Pierata and in front of Redzel, but was then only 3rd last time in the Premiere. Has yet to even run in a Group 1, but at the same time doesn't look out of place in the line-up given what he has done so far in his short career. This is probably a year too soon for him though. Ten Sovereigns - Things did not go well for U S Navy Flag when Aidan O'Brien sent him over for this last year as he hated the ground and was a well beaten 9th in the end. Like him Ten Sovereigns comes here after winning the July Cup. I thought it was the most impressive performance in a sprint during the season at the time and was keen on him for the Nunthorpe only for him to be a massive disappointment. He runs like that again then he has no chance, but if he runs as he did at Newmarket then I think he has a really good chance. He is likely to get a strong pace to aim at and the ground certainly can't be an excuse this year. Alizee - Her Group 1 wins so far have all come over further than 1200m although she has won 3 Group 2's over the trip. Two of those came this year although both only had 5 runners and you have to think she is a better horse over further. Sunlight - A really likable mare who I was lucky enough to see in the flesh when she won the Group 1 William Reid at Moonee Valley in March. Prior to that she had won the Newmarket at Flemington and after it she was 3rd to Santa Anna Lane in the T J Smith over course and distance. She has had 3 starts so far this prep and has improved with every start winning the Gilgai at Flemington when beating Santa Anna Lane. My suspicion is that Santa Anna Lane will reverse form her given that he was first up, but I can certainly see Sunlight running a big race and could easily hit the frame In Her Time - Was really impressive when winning the consolation for this in 2017 and got her chance in this last year, but she was another who got stuck in the mud when only 7th behind Redzel. She is a good horse and landed the Group 1 Lightening Stakes at Flemington in February over 1000m when Sunlight was back in 3rd. She was then 6th in the Newmarket, but was giving Sunlight 4kg that day. She will be first up her although she has had 3 trial races including when 2nd over 1000m behind Redzel on October 8th. She has a good first up record, but to go and land a race like this first up will surely be too tough. Arcadia Queen - A former Western Australian mare who is now with Chris Waller and has won 6 of her 7 races so far. She ended her Western Australian career winning the Kingston Town last December over 1800m. She has had just the one start for Waller so far and she won the Group 2 Theo Marks last month at Rosehill over 1300m. She is clearly a very good horse that still looks to be progressing, but the only time she has run over 1200m was on her debut and she is facing world class sprinters here. Still I wouldn't want to rule her out entirely given her trainer and she is pushing for favouritism. Yes Yes Yes - The 3rd Waller runner and another who hasn't been racing for all that long. He made his debut last December and ended up winning a Group 2 over course and distance in March before finishing 7th in the Golden Slipper. He's had two runs this prep finishing 2nd both times over 1200m and 1400m. He's clearly good, but again I'm not sure he is quite at the top level just yet. Summary - For me Santa Anna Lane is the best sprinter over 1200m in Australia at the moment and given we are looking at good ground on Saturday morning there will be no ground excuse this time around. He is the most likely winner for me. Nature Strip is likely to lead as I would be a bit surprised if they didn't just try and play catch me if you can. I don't think holding him up will work any better. I don't think Redzel is quite at the level of the last two years and might have got lucky last year anyway. I think Ten Sovereigns is worth chancing at the prices e/w. On the July Cup win I give him a big chance in this and he looks a bit over priced to me. It will be fascinating to see what Arcadia Queen will do, but of the females I think Sunlight is probably the one most likely to do the best with Pierata also a top 4 contender. As they like to give the first 4 in Australia here is my idea of who is going to fill those spots. 1 - Santa Anna Lane (9/2 with William Hill) 2 - Ten Sovereigns (win and place at 26 and 5.5 at Bet365. Scroll down to the Oz section in the racing part click on Saturday and then it is R7 at Randwick. That is much bigger than he is available in the UK markets) 3 - Sunlight 4 - Pierata A Caufield Cup preview will follow at some point
  9. What price did they go off at? I noticed early in the 2nd half when it was 1-1 they were 11/10 which obviously was way shorter than I had put them up at pre game. They must have been long odds on I would have thought.
  10. I was tempted by Merthyr but there away form put me off. Could be they have just improved of late though and certainly couldn't put anyone off.
  11. Happy enough with the way things went on Saturday obviously frustrating the two bigger bets failed to land, but there were some big prices landed with the 4 teams that did win and it was just what was needed after a couple of tough sessions. Not that many games this week and I have just two bets that have caught my eye. Blackfield & Langley v Weston-Super-Mare My main ante-post bets for the BetVictor Southern Premier South were Weston and they have made a solid start to the season where they have maybe drawn more than ideal. They showed their class on Saturday though as they hammered Dorchester 6-0. I fancy them to follow that victory up with a win here as they face a Blackfield who are struggling at the moment. They have lost their last 4 games and their 4 wins in the league this season have mainly come against the weaker sides in the league. Hopefully Weston make their class count and they can win at 63/50 with Marathon. Merstham v Cray Wanderers The home side are not having a good season and look like they are going to find themselves in a relegation battle this season. I opposed them a couple of weeks ago against Worthing and the same comments apply here. They lost that match 3-1 and then on Saturday they lost 4-1 to Leatherhead and by the sounds of it could have been much worse for them as Leatherhead missed some really good chances and a penalty. Cray look a big price at 7/4 with Bet365. They are doing well after winning promotion last season and the 5-3 defeat against Enfield on Saturday is their only defeat in their last 8 games. They were 5-1 down at one stage, but they kept going to make the scoreline a bit more respectable which is something that is good to see. The one slight concern is they have drawn 5 of their last 10 games, but this looks a good opportunity for them to pick up 3 points. Weston-Super-Mare 1pt @ 63/50 with Marathon Cray Wanderers 2pts @ 7/4 with Bet365
  12. Wish I had left Boreham Wood out as well so I could have won that much lol
  13. I have had tough spells in the past and given this one has only lasted 2 match days it is not exactly the longest, but this week has been really tough. Saturday wasn't great and the 3pt Yeovil bet losing was annoying, but what happened on Monday and Tuesday was just awful. Gloucester should have won that game with ease in the circumstances, but they massively under performed and obviously personally that defeat was hard to take. Then for Dover to go and somehow lose 4-0 to Aldershot on the Tuesday night was probably an even freakier result. I have now tipped up Dover in their only 2 games they have failed to win on the road and they have conceded 7 times in those two matches. Granted it was only a point on Hartlepool on Wednesday night, but to see them defend as badly as they did for the 2 Stockport goals was pretty hard to take as it was really bad stuff. Obviously if you were a new follower after the two really good days the week before then you might be wondering what all the fuss is about and you will be a fair few quid down. I can make no guarantees about making a profit, but hopefully come April I will still be in profit and who knows we might get a day like the final day of last season again! Anyway onto Saturday and I have 6 bets. Halifax v Boreham Wood Chorley turned up to Halifax on Tuesday night and didn't even try to win the game and Halifax just couldn't break them down. Fair play to Chorley because they keep drawing games so in some ways it was no disrespect to only get a point against them rather than all 3. I do think though they can get straight back to winning ways against a Boreham Wood side who will have done plenty of travelling this week. They have been in decent nick only losing 2 of their last 7 games, but one of those was when they had to go all the way to Barrow on Tuesday night and they lost 3-1 to the in form home side. It is pretty nasty of the fixture list to send them to Barrow on a Tuesday and then Halifax on the Saturday especially when Halifax played at home on Tuesday night. Halifax have got the best defence in the league which is key given Tshimanga and Marsh have both score 8 goals for Wood this season. Keep them quiet and the chances are you will win the game and hopefully Halifax will do just that. I would have them odds on myself so 13/10 looks a big price. AFC Telford v York City York are still unbeaten which is pretty impressive after 12 games and hopefully they will be making it 13 games unbeaten after this one. They are already looking like they will be hard to beat for the title and they ought to have too much for a Telford side who have been really struggling of late. They lost to Blyth in their last league game and were also dumped out of the FA Cup 3-0 to Nantwich from the league below. They have conceded 3 goals in each of their last 4 home games as well and you would expect a side like York to be able to punish them on that front as well. Again I think York should be odds on shorts so 59/50 makes plenty of appeal. Curzon Ashton v Blyth Spartans Blyth are obviously risky because they haven't been great so far this season, but they have shown signs of improvement and they look way over priced to beat a badly out of form Curzon side who are in worse form. Curzon have not won a game since August 12th and not only that they have only picked up 1 point in the league since then and that was when they drew with Stalybridge on Bank Holiday Monday which stopped me from getting a very profitable full house on that day! Blyth know they can beat Curzon as they beat them in a FA Cup replay last month. As mentioned above Blyth won their last league game against Telford and although they lost to Hednesford in the FA Cup last Saturday they still look in better shape than their hosts at the moment. I would probably have them around the 7/4 mark and the 29/10 they actually are is way over the odds. Whitby v Warrington I am going to try and get some of the money back lost on Monday by taking on Whitby again. We know they were down to the barebones for Monday and although getting time off work won't be an issue here they still have injuries to deal with. The players were out on their feet on Monday after about 60 minutes and Gloucester were well on top despite having just 10 men and I even get the feeling City might have won the tie if they had 11 men on the pitch. Taken that into account I suspect there will be some tired Whitby legs on Saturday. Also given they have a great chance of getting to the 1st Round of the FA Cup next Saturday and I would imagine they will have more than one eye on that tie against Stourbridge. Warrington are more than good enough to take advantage and have yet to loose on their travels in the league this season. Granted they haven't won in 4, but they have drawn 3 of those games and although South Shields already look away and gone they should be in the play-offs. All things considered I think they are over priced for this and are well worth backing. Hartley Whitney v Walton Casuals The home side have yet to win at home in the league this season and hopefully that will continue to be the case here. They have only won twice and they have come against Dorchester who are below them in the table and Met Police who are one place above them. Walton Casuals lost their first 5 games, but have followed that up with 4 straight wins so come here in fine form and I fancy them to make it 5 losses and 5 victories. Harrow v Truro Truro are having a cracking season after relegation having lost just twice in 10 games and have won 7 of them as well. They look possible title contenders and I think they can get another 3 points here. Harrow started the season well enough and were unbeaten after 5 games, but they have lost 3 of their last 4 and I suspect they are going to find their place in the table being the bottom half come April. I think Truro are well worth a bet as they are the better side of the two and hopefully will go and prove that on the pitch. Oxford City v Dartford This is an extra bet after I put the initial 6 bets up. It was announced on Thursday evening that Steve King was the new manager at Dartford and I think that news makes them worth a bet on Saturday. We usually see an improved performance from teams who have a new manager and I am a huge fan of Steve King. His track record especially at this level is hugely impressive and as much as fans of rival clubs have always wanted to slag him off I have never really understood why given how good he is. He nearly saved Whitehawk from relegation 2 seasons ago given from memory I don't think they had even won a game when he joined, they certainly were detached at the bottom of the table. He then went to Welling and got them to finish 3rd despite the fact they cut the wage budget during the season and they went on to lost to Woking in the play-off final. I'm not surprised he wasn't out of work for long and I expect him to get an under performing Dartford rising up the table. Oxford City have won three games at home this season and two of them were against Hampton & Richmond with the other against North Leigh in the FA Cup. They have drawn against Weymouth and Billericay in their last two home league games which are fair efforts, but I think we could see a big performance from Dartford this weekend and at 15/8 I am willing to back them. Halifax 3pts @ 13/10 with William Hill York 2.5pts @ 59/50 with Marathon Blyth Spartans 1pt @ 29/10 with Marathon Warrington 1pt @ 9/4 with BetVictor Walton Casuals 1pt @ 153/100 with Marathon Truro 1pt @ 7/5 with Marathon Dartford 1pt @ 15/8 with Bet365
  14. Cheers for those stats. I don't always get top price as I don't have easy access to a BetVictor account. The Naps would have been showing a profit before Saturday and Tuesday's disaster.
  15. Must admit I have never really understood his posts so have just ignored him. I've had bad spells, but this past week has been one of the toughest I have had. Tonight Hartlepool defended terribly for the two goals and despite having lots of possession didn't do enough with it in the final 3rd. If people want to stop following that's up to them, but prior to Saturday I had a great couple of sessions with 4 late goals making a huge difference to things. I've been posting on here for nearly 10 years now and only a couple of times have I struggled on match betting so it is proven that I will nearly always make a profit over a season. Obviously I can never guarantee that as it is gambling at the end of the day, but hopefully come the end of April we will all be a few quid up.
  16. Don’t have any strong view to be honest. Might be a bit high but they have under performed for me so far this season
  17. It was annoying Whitby tweeted their news story just after I posted on here as that meant the info was out there for everyone so was going to go even quicker than I initially thought.
  18. Just after posting Whitby Tweeted this confirming the news I had been told
  19. Gloucester v Whitby Part of me doesn't want to get involved in this game as obviously I already have a lot riding on it from an emotional point of view as I am always desperate for us to progress in the FA Cup, but take my heart out of it the game looks to be potentially one that money can be made from and ultimately I would be getting involved if I wasn't a Gloucester fan. Whitby should have won the first tie on Saturday and Gloucester equalised very late in the game to take the match to a replay. Not surprisingly the Whitby players looked gutted after the goal goes in and that for me was the moment their hopes in the FA Cup ended. Just 48 hours later they have to travel over 200 miles to Evesham to take in the replay. That is tough for plenty of reasons but the main one being they could well struggle to raise a team tonight. They were already suffering from injuries and the squad was pretty depleted on Saturday and then the players have to try and get a day off work at very short notice. Now until the final team sheet is seen it is impossible to know for certain who is on that team bus, but I have seen it suggested that they may not have 10 outfield players. I did consider waiting to see the team news before having a bet, but I think it is a case of trying to beat the crowd on this one. Given the Gloucester players had a massive scare on Saturday I don't think they will take things lightly tonight and with the draw given them a home tie against a lower league side in the next round, it looks a decent opportunity to get to the 1st Round. Gloucester have done us a few favours already this season and even if Whitby do have 10 outfield players on the pitch I still think City will be too strong at the 2nd time of asking. For me the bet is on the -1 handicap with is 15/8 with Betfair and Paddy Power which could look very big depending on team news and looks a good bet anyway. Gloucester City -1 3pts @ 15/8 with Betfair, Paddy Power and Boylesports
  20. A poor day on Saturday, but days like that will happen so we move on to the midweek action and I have 2 bets I like the look of. Aldershot v Dover It really annoys me that the only time I have backed Dover when they have played away from home was the only time they haven't won on their travels this season. That game ended in defeat to Boreham Wood, but apart from that they have been exceptional on the road this season and I fancy them to win here against a poor Aldershot side. Aldershot have only managed to beat Wrexham at home so far this season and obviously given where they are in the table it doesn't say a great deal. They played out a dire 0-0 on Saturday against Chorley and you would expect Dover to have too much for them. Dover played their part in a good game on Saturday where they were denied the 3 points late on by Notts County in a 2-2 draw. For me Dover should be odds on for this and I can't see the 13/10 lasting. Stockport v Hartlepool This game is the live BT Sport game on Wednesday night and I think Hartlepool are a big price to back up their win against Yeovil on Saturday. They played really well and to get a winner in injury time a couple of minutes after Yeovil had equalised showed a real strength in character. That was their first win in 6, but they are unbeaten in 3 now and they have decent away form only losing to Halifax and Dagenham so far on their travels. I still think they look a side capable of being in the promotion mix and to be fair despite the fact they are 15th they are only 4 points from the play-off places. Stockport are in desperate form at the moment and lost 5 on the bounce before getting a 0-0 draw at Sutton on Saturday. There were some shocking performances in those defeats as well and they were conceding goals for fun. Manager Jim Gannon saw some improvement on Saturday, but it wasn't a great game and I think Hartlepool can punish them. I'm surprised that Hartlepool are as big as 5/2 because I think they are the better team and would have them no bigger than 7/4. Dover 4pts @ 13/10 with BetVictor Hartlepool 1pt @ 5/2 with Bet365
  21. Typical although after the last two sessions not surprised something went against us.
  22. Poor afternoon and give back some profit sadly. Also for the 2nd round running Bristol Manor Farm have stopped the FA Cup acca from winning.
  23. I wouldn't really want to be backing Wrexham at the moment and they had an extra game in mid-week albeit I did think the price was a bit higher than I would have made it.
  24. Other bookies might price up tomorrow. Betfred had it up earlier but not sure if they suspend markets like this over night or not. The key is though to have as many bookmakers accounts as possible to make sure you get the best price you can.
  25. Twitter, club websites, local paper sites and the Non League Paper for news info and match reports. I then like to use Football Web Pages for stats based stuff as I find it easy to use for what I am looking for