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Darran

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Everything posted by Darran

  1. A very good Sunday last week with Onset and Elvision both winning for a decent profit and both run tomorrow morning at Sandown where we have the Australian Steeplechase and Australian Hurdle. We also have the hurdling debut of Constantinople. Race 1 We start with the Australian Steeplechase and the Wilde pair of Brittanicus and Elvison head the betting. Elvison obviously did us a great turn last week at Casterton and what a jumping performance he put in over the hedges. He never looked in any danger of getting beaten and given the small field I'm not really surprised connections have decided to run him again on the 7 day back up. His stablemate ran a hell of a race in the Brieley to just be beaten by another one from the yard in Vanguard. I have concerns about both of them though. This is a much better race than the one Elvision won last week and although he's clearly improving he was beaten by Once Were Lost at Warrnambool. I also wonder if the two of them might end up cutting each others throats up front. I guess they will try not to do that, but Elvison clearly likes front running and Brittanicus can be keen and although he hasn't always front run he did at Warrnambool. I'm also not sure Brittanicus will stay the trip so as much as either winning wouldn't surprise I do think there could be value in looking elsewhere. Bit Of Lad won this 2 years ago, but he didn't run great in the Brierly even allowing for the fact that he blew the start. Pateman told the stewards he needs a softer surface which he wont get here. Once Were Lost got the better of Elvison at Warrnambool and maybe this extra trip will help, but he carried 66kg compared to the 2nd carrying 71kg and here Elvison only has to give him 1kg so really the form ought to be reversed. Quite why Coleridge is as short as he is I don't know because he was miles behind Elvison last week. I put up Getting Leggie in the Grand Annual and I am going to put him up again here because he just shouldn't be the outsider. I thought he ran a cracking race at Warrnambool as he wasn't beaten far in 4th and I think the trip in the very testing ground 2nd up was just a bit too much for him. 1st up he was 1 place in front of Britannicus at Pakenham when they were 3rd and 4th and I think this trip will suit Getting Leggie better than Britannicus. He has never won on a heavy track so this better ground should be ideal and he's got a really solid chance for me. He's been nibbled in the betting which doesn't surprise me. Getting Leggie 1pt @ 9/1 with everyone Race 4 Constantinople doesn't need too many introductions I am sure given his high profile form for Aiden O'Brien. He went off favourite for a Caulfield Cup and was well fancied for a Melbourne Cup. That was back in 2019 where you also have to go back to for his last win which came in a Group 3 at the Curragh in May that year. His only other win was a Thurles maiden win the year before. He's been running in good races and has run some good races especially of late where he has been 2nd in the Terang Cup last month and then 3rd in the Warrnambool Cup where he overraced. I've watched his two hurdle trials and he isn't a great jumper it has to be said. He has also looked keen in them. He could well outclass his rivals here and the fact he's likely to make mistakes might not stop him, but on the other side I do wonder if he is keen again that he might not stay the trip. Runaway was behind him in 3rd in the trial last time, he's likely to make the running and they might take each other on. So can anything beat Constantinople? I thought Blandford Lad did very well in the Champion Novice at Warrnambool to finish 2nd and although he came wide the better ground was certainly on the outside so it helped the first 4 home that day. He's certainly a chance here though as he won his maiden well at Pakenham as well. I thought Hey Happy did it well at Casterton last week as he beat the other market leader and they pulled well clear of everything else. This is tougher, but he should go well. Pueblo was disappointing in the Champion Novice, but if he returns to the Pakenham maiden win form then he has claims. Onset won at a double figure price for us last week and she bolted up. As I mentioned ahead of that she was on the wrong part of the track in the Champion Novice and ran a hell of a race to finish so close. She has clearly improved, but is it enough to beat Constantinople only getting 0.5kg from him? All the other leading fancies have to give Constantinople weight as he has 66.5kg to carry whereas Runaway has 71kg, Blandford Lad 69, Hey Happy 68.5 and Pueblo 68. So as much as his jumping doesn't impress me and there are stamina doubts, I actually think he will get away with it against this field at these weights as he just has a class edge on the rest of them so I actually do think he offers a bit of value. Onset might be the one to chase him home. Constantinople 1pt @ 11/5 with Bet365 Race 5 No horse has won back-to-back Australian Hurdles' since The Shu in 95 and 96 and only 3 others have done it in the history of the race which was first run in 1892. Saunter Boy carried 66.5kg last year to win this and has to carry 71kg this time around, but I think he can do it. He's already picked up 2 decent pots this season at Pakenham and Warrnambool and although Out And Dreaming has a chance of reversing form at the weights I don't think he will although he does look the main danger to me. Saunter Boy is just so tough and really has that will to win. Saunter Boy's high rating means the whole field aren't carrying the true weights that they should which helps his chances. El Diez won the Champion Novice and had Brungle Bertie and Devon Miss in behind and I think Brungle Bertie can do the best of that trio, but Saunter Boy can make history and land back-to-back victories in this historic race. Saunter Boy 2pts @ 13/10 @ Bet365
  2. Final day of the National League season on Sunday and I have 6 bets Barnet v Bromley Barnet have been a bit disappointing for the last 2/3 months of the season after looking pretty good when Dean Brennan first took over. Even so they've looked a bit better again recently and they could win the final game of the season against a Bromley side who will have more than one eye on Wembley in a weeks time. That could give the home side the edge here. Boreham Wood v Solihull Moors Solihull are having an incredible run at the moment and they have very much gone under the radar because they were always unlikely to gain enough to be a title hope, but they sneaked into 3rd place on goal difference and they will be keen to get that advantage of finishing 3rd (it means they get a bye to the semi-finals and get a home game). Boreham Wood perked up for their games against Stockport and Wrexham and I guess they could do here, but Solihull aren't as big as those two and it's not like they will be stopping them from winning the title. I'd be stronger on this, but the result could be effected by what happens at Stockport, but essentially I think Solihull will go all out to win the game and they are just scoring so many goals right now. Chesterfield v Woking The home side were so bad against Torquay last Saturday and that's been pretty much the same story since Rowe decided to walk in naked on the physio (allegedly). Paul Cook was such a bad choice of manager and they have gone from title contenders to nearly dropping out of the play-offs since he took over. I think Woking will be up for this and on their day they can beat anyone in the league as they have proven this season. Also if Wrexham do go in front at Dagenham then I can imagine Chesterfield not being too concerned about things in this game. Dagenham & Redbridge v Wrexham Dagenham's defending was so bad against Solihull last week and if they defend like that then Mullin and Palmer are going to have a field day. They were so good against Stockport and Mullin's finish for the 2nd was superb. I think the long throw can be overrated, but Ben Tozer's isn't a normal long throw and it has caused chaos since he joined Wrexham. I can see Wrexham scoring from a throw again here given Dagenham's defence is not their strong point. I'm amazed Wrexham aren't shorter and unless Stockport happen to go 2 or 3 in front before Wrexham go ahead then Wrexham are going to be giving it their all so they look a great bet to me. Eastleigh v Grimsby Grimsby can only really finish 6th and even if Chesterfield do overturn the goal difference there isn't really any difference between finishing 6th or 7th. They have a longshot of overturning the goal difference with Notts County above them which would give them a home tie in the play-offs, but I don't think they will believe that to be possible so won't be too bothered about what happens here. That gives Eastleigh a chance of winning and I think they are over priced to do so. Maidenhead v Notts County County can only finish 5th (unless Grimsby happen to go goal crazy) so Maidenhead are a bet here. As we know Maidenhead like beating the top sides at home and no doubt Alan Devonshire will be out to claim another big scalp on the final day of the season. Barnet 1pt @ 2/1 with Ladbrokes and Coral (take up to 6/4) Solihull 2.5pts @ 5/4 with Betfred, Coral and Ladbrokes (William Hill are 13/10 and take up to Evs) Woking 1pt @ 9/2 with Bet365, William Hill, Coral and Ladbrokes (take up to 3/1) Wrexham 4pts @ 27/20 with Coral and Ladbrokes (7/5 with Bet365 and take up to Evs) Eastleigh 1pt @ 15/4 with Skybet, Ladbrokes and Coral (take up to 5/2) Maidenhead 1pt @ 9/5 with Betfred (take up to 6/4)
  3. The jumping action is back on Sunday with four races at Casterton. Race 1 This looks a very weak race and there is every chance Tolemac only has to repeat his front running 2nd at Warrnambool to land this. That was a better race than this and he looks the most likely winner. Hey Happy was short in the betting for both his hurdle runs last season and didn't really show a great deal. He has been running well on the flat this prep though so he does have the ability to get involved. I'm amazed Joshua Reynolds has gone backwards from his good 2nd at Hamilton. He was only 4th at Pakenham the next time and then only beat one home at Warrnambool. He's got a right chance on the Hamilton run though and if he bounces back he's overpriced. I'm concerned enough about Hey Happy to not want to get involved in Tolemac at the odds so will have a small e/w bet on Joshua Reynolds in the hope he can run up to his Hamilton effort. Joshua Reynolds 0.5pts e/w @ 14/1 with everyone apart from Bet365 Race 2 Capellani is the odds on favourite here. He had 3 starts over hurdles in New Zealand and showed a little, but he has been in very good form on the flat of late having finished 3rd 1st up and then he's won his last two. He had a hurdle trial as well and that was solid enough. Dr Dependable made a good start to his jumps career, but has gone the wrong way since the 2nd at Warrnambool. It was only a weak race Dubawi Prince won on the flat last time, but it was still a good performance in the context of this race. He had a trial over hurdles last week and he jumped well without really being asked for an effort. Jeune Elvis went too quick at Warrnambool and faded, but if he can settle better he wouldn't be out of this. Hakana Matata ran well on the flat last time and wouldn't be out of it. I think this is more open than the betting suggests and I will take a chance each-way on Onset. She's had a few chances to lose her maiden tag now but she looks in good form this prep. She wasn't beaten far at Pakenham when 5th and was then 3rd at Warrnambool just behind Tolemac. Two days later she ran in the Champion Novice Hurdle and ran a hell of a race to just be beaten in 5th. She stuck to the inside where the going was slower as the first 4 all took wide passages into the straight. If she can repeat those efforts then she is a big player here. Onset 1pt e/w @ 10/1 with William Hill, Coral and Ladbrokes Race 3 An open handicap hurdle and we have two of the maiden hurdle runners from Warrnambool line-up in Lord Pierro and Count Zero. I'm not sure either contest was overly strong although both have claims here and I would favour Count Zero of the pair as the front two had a gap to the 3rd and he is the better horse on the flat. By Design is a big price and he's shown little in a couple of flat runs, but he was 3rd here on his hurdle debut last year and then won at Hamilton. I don't think he's out of this. Serenade The Stars landed the first maiden of the season, but that wasn't a strong race at all and he was then 2nd to Chenners at Hamilton which I would be surprised if that was form good enough to win this. Hush Writer hated the ground at Warrnambool in the Champion Novice and he is better than that, but the horse I like was the horse I fancied for that race before he was taken out, Rolland Garros. He finished a fair way in front of Hush Writer when they were 2nd and 4th at Pakenham and it looked the perfect prep run for Warrnambool. Annoyingly he was taken out, but hopefully they get the rain that is forecast because the softer the better for him. The softer the ground the more confident I would be about his chances, but I think he's the best horse in the race so hopefully can go and prove it. Roland Garos 2pts @ 9/4 with Betfred, Coral and Ladbrokes Race 4 I'd be a little surprised if Elvison or Historic didn't win this as they look to have the edge on the rest of the field. I put Elvison up at Warrnambool at a double figure price and he ran a huge race from the front only just getting passed late on. They were miles clear of the rest. He had a flat start prior to that, but it is easy to think he is going to come on again for his first jumps start of the prep and he's a course and distance winner so we know that wont be an issue for him. Historic was last in a maiden hurdle at Warrnambool, but he's much better over fences so it was a run just for fitness. He can be very good as he showed when winning 3 times (here, Sale and Coleraine) last year, but he also can throw in some right stinkers and fail to finish as he did in this race last year. For me that tips the balance in favour of Elvison and he can go one better than last time. Elvision 2.5pts @ 6/4 with everyone apart from Paddy Power and Betfair
  4. It doesn't matter how big your betting bank is you should open as many bookies with the main bookies as possible so you can take advantage of the best price on offer. If you had two shops next door to each other and something you wanted to buy was cheaper in one than the other you aren't going to go for the more expensive option. Betting is no different.
  5. The last at Aintree tonight is a point to point bumper. Like the Exeter one last month this race is specifically for horses who have run in a point this season. On paper it doesn't look a strong contest. Broomfields Cave - Didn't show too much in Ireland, but won both starts since coming over here. Was very well backed on his first start where he was spooked at the first by a loose dog (sadly no video footage) and he nearly unseated. He beat 2 horses there and had 3 in the race he won by 30L at Chilfrome last time. He beat nothing there though and I'm pretty neutral about his chances as he might be good enough, but at the same time I prefer others in the race. Just Four Fame - Found himself outpaced at Chaddesley Corbett last month over just over 2m3f and on debut he probably would have been 4th if the horse who was going to win didn't have their saddle slip on the run in and if My Virtue hadn't slipped round the bend. Good jockey, but not sure he has the pace for this. Santos Blue - Was put in at some fancy prices last night which not surprisingly were taken. On debut he won a 3 runner point to point bumper and he then went to Larkhill over 2m4f where he was closing when falling at 2 out. The winner of that race has been sold for £30k since. He went back to Larkhill for his next start but unseated at the 3rd when badly hampered. A week later he went to Horseheath where he was a well beaten 2nd, but the winner was very impressive and has been sold for £30k. There were only 3 finishers and he was 30L in front of the other one who has won twice since. James King rode him in hist first 3 starts and does so again tonight. Tufton Avenue - Won a match at Paxford where not surprisingly the time was very slow. Quickened away well but the other one was a well beaten 5th on debut so I doubt he achieved much. Off course on the flipside we don't know how good he might be, but under priced at the moment for me. Has already tried to be sold but didn't reach his reserve of £50k although that seemed staggering high for a horse winning a match. Fascinating Rhythm - Would have been in front of Macavity at Charm Park on his 2nd start but for unseating 2 out and he was still in with a chance of winning. Found himself outpaced in a point to point bumper on his debut when a 3L 3rd although the winner is now with Gordon Elliott. Was beaten a short head over 3m and then won by 17L over the same course and distance. To me he looks more of a stayer and he might find this test too sharp, but I do like his form certainly compared to most of these. Good Boy - He was an easy winner of a point to point bumper at Sandon a month ago on debut where he had Sugar Pi 17L back in 3rd. Not sure the form is overly strong, but he looked green and there should be more to come. The bigger concern is Gina chooses to rides the stablemate. Intrepide Sud - And here is said stablemate who finished alone at Garthorpe in a 2m4f maiden although he would have won anyway. He jumped novicey and was clearly still green as he flashed his tail on the run in. On the face of it I was more impressed with Good Boy, but Gina would know better than me and so you have to say he is the most likely winner out of the two. Has already been tried to be sold and went through the ring at £24k unsold. Macavity - Recorded a slow time last time especially given he got the 14lbs allowance for his age. A couple of weeks before he won a weak race where the favourite pulled up after the rider lost their irons and the 2nd has been beaten since. On debut he was beaten over 40L and as mentioned above would have been beaten by Fascinating Rhythm. I think backers have to hope that a 2m1f bumper suits him better than Fascinating Rhythm otherwise I can't see that form being reversed. Sugar Pi - Stuffed in his first two point bumpers and can't see any reason why he would reverse form with Good Boy from last time. My Virtue - Was last and well beaten in a point bumper on debut at Bangor in March, but that did come on very testing ground and she ran much better on her next two starts. She was bang in contention at Maisemore when clipping heels coming round the bend and she would have likely been well clear of Just Four Fame. Had an easy task to shed her maiden tag at Eyton last time in a match and if the ground was to blame for the Bangor run then I think her chance is better than the odds suggest. Verdict - I don't think this is a particular strong renewal of this race on paper and it looks fairly wide open. Part of the problem is a few of these have been running and winning in small fields so it's hard to judge how much ability they actually have. I thought Good Boy won well on debut, but Gina has chosen Intrepide Sud over him and it would be surprising if she got it wrong, but they both look to have a chance. I think Fascinating Rhythm has the best form in the race, but it is a worry that he was outpaced in a bumper on debut and he looks more of a stayer. The one I like the most is Santos Blue who has managed to win a 2m flat race (albeit only had 2 rivals) and I think he has come up against good horses in the 2 maidens he got the furthest in. There is a good chance that at Horseheath he just didn't stay up the hill as well as the winner which is why he was beaten so far, so this test should be more suitable. To be honest apart from Sugar Pi and Just Four Fame you could understand why one of the others could win or more have enough ability to win, but I do think the complete outsider My Virtue is overpriced at 50/1. She has a good jockey claiming 3lbs and if she hadn't run at Bangor or had completed at Maisemore then there is no way she would be priced up anywhere near those odds. I have to have a small bet on her as well. Santos Blue 1pt @ 7/1 with most bookies (take up to 5/1) My Virtue 0.25pts e/w @ 50/1 with everyone (take up to 20/1)
  6. A bit disappointing from Beneficio but she was racing on the wrong part of the track on the inside as it was softer than the centre of the track where the front 5 ended up coming from including my other tip who came 2nd. Jockey also thought she struggled a little on the soft ground. Interestingly as much as she looks like she needs 1000m her two worse runs have now come at that trip. Disappointing but she’s still learning and will bounce back.
  7. I’ve had some unbelievably bad beats this season as well including the two 40/1 ante post bets, but you can never guarantee a profit from betting and it’s not the first time I’ve had a tough season.
  8. My Australian horse Beneficio is back out tomorrow morning at Sandown in Race 4 (5.10am) and I have had a good look at the race. I think there are 5 including her who have a winning chance. Sniper Legend - A course and distance winner in January who was then spelled for a few weeks and he returned with a fast finishing 2nd at Cranbourne last time. Should go well if building on that here. Super Thief - Won at Swan Hill and then landed a BM64 (same level as this) at Sale in the September and October last year. He then went to Flemington on Melbourne Cup day and ran well enough to finish 5th of 8. He then went to Moonee Valley when disappointing, but suffered a small laceration so you could ignore that effort for me. He jumps quite well so should be fairly handy and he has had a couple of jump outs in preparation for this. Tycoon Humma - Course and Distance winner at this level in February and ran well at Moonee Valley in March when she had a poor draw when finishing 4th. She was disappointing at Flemington last time, but that was at BM78 level and I wonder if she didn't truly stay the 1100m. If she bounces back from that then she can go well here. Burnum - Looked good when winning at Mornington a year ago but then picked up an injury. Has had a couple of jump outs in preparation for this and could be anything although the fact she is favourite is more on potential for me. Beneficio - Ran a huge race at Caulfield to finish 2nd when getting run down late on by the winner who had very useful form. Beneficio wasn't running from out of the handicap and she was only getting 0.5kg from the winner when it should have been 4kg. As usual she was so fast away from the start and having looked at the field I think she will lead them up quite easily here. Teluici has front run the last twice, but she doesn't look to have as much speed from the gate as Beneficio has. She's drawn in the middle so should be able to get across to the rail OK. The 3rd at Caulfield has finished 3rd in a Listed Race since so that is a boost to the form. To me it looks like the drop down to 1000m should be ideal for her given how much speed she has and she has handled a bit of cut in the ground before so the Soft track shouldn't be an issue. It was an open handicap she ran in at Caulfield so this BM64 should be easier for her and although I don't know much about the jockey she comes highly recommended and she claims 2kg. The trainer reports that she has done extremely well since the run and he expects her to be super competitive in this race. I think she will be hard to run down and has a great chance of winning although at 5/1 I think she is a great e/w bet because I really would be surprised if she is out of the first 3. As for the others I do think Tycoon Humma is over the odds and take out the Flemington run she would be shorter in the betting so I will have a little on her e/w. I think the other main danger is Super Thief given the good run at Flemington on Melbourne Cup day. Beneficio e/w @ 5/1 with William Hill and Betfred Tycoon Humma e/w @ 16/1 with William Hill and Bet365
  9. Sadly unless a minor miracle happens on the final day of the season and any play-off bets I might have I will be at a loss this season. My record on my strongest fancied picks has been shocking which is very unusual and will be the main reason I end up with a loss.
  10. No previews as such, but basically most of the bets are teams playing teams that are already guaranteed their spot in the play-offs and can't move position so I think are likely to have their foot off the peddle. I am strong on St Albans because Tonbridge decided to strangely sack their manager this week so I don't think their players are going to care how they play as a new manager will be coming in after the season ends. Kings Lynn had a good 3-0 win at Woking on Monday and I think they are playing better than Wealdstone at the moment so will take them as well. Just to note it is the last games in NLN and NLS, but the NL has another set of fixtures next Saturday as well as 3 games on Tuesday. Kings Lynn to beat Wealdstone 1pt @ 9/4 with Bet365, Coral and Ladbrokes (take up to 7/4) Bath City to beat Oxford City 1pt 9/4 with William Hill (take up to 7/4) Hungerford to beat Dorking 1pt @ 9/4 with William Hill (take up to 2/1) Hampton & Richmond to beat Maidstone 1pt @ 18/5 with Betfair and BetVictor (take up to 3/1) St Albans to beat Tonbridge 3pts @ 21/20 with William Hill (take up to 8/11) Leamington to beat AFC Fylde 1pt @ 7/2 with Paddy Power and Betfair (take up to 11/4) Chester to beat Brackley 1pt @ 5/2 with William Hill (take up to 2/1) Darlington to beat Kidderminster 1pt @ 21/10 with BetVictor and Bet365 (take up 15/8)
  11. Saunter Boy really toughed it out well to win yesterday and Elvison so nearly made all in the race before, but we did get the e/w money at least. Tomorrow sees the Champion Novice Hurdle and the big race of the week the Grand Annual. Race 1 No surprise that Brungle Bertie is favourite for the Champion Novice Hurdle after his dominant win at Pakenham last time where he had Roland Garros, Devon Miss, Hush Writer, El Diez and Cenan all in behind by 11L and more. He was really impressive, but the concern has to be the Heavy 10 track which will make things very different from that Pakenham race. The worse ground he's raced on so far was in a flat race at Ballarat last year and to be fair he was a good 3rd, but that was only a Heavy 8 whereas it is likely to be a Heavy 10 tomorrow. When I previewed that Pakenham race I mentioned that Roland Garros was likely to be using that race as a prep for this contest as it has been reported he wants a heavy track which of course he is going to get here. Because of that I think he has a chance of reversing form and I make him the selection here. Pueblo and Blandford Lad won the maiden hurdles on the card although both were in slower times than Brungle Bertie's race. I don't think the form is overly strong from either contest although the flat class that Blandford Lad has does mean I would favour him out of the two plus he has Pateman on top. Roland Garros 1.5pts @ 3/1 with William Hill, Betfred, Coral and Ladbrokes Race 7 - Grand Annual Bit Of A Lad - Was well beaten in the Brierly on Tuesday and hasn't shown much in 3 previous runs in this contest. Police Camp - Likely to be outclassed in this. Getting Leggie - A really interesting runner who was having his first start in just over a year at Pakenham last time after suffering a tendon injury. I thought he would probably need it, but he exceeded my expectations in finishing a very good 3rd behind Riding High. He won the Brierly 2 years ago so he certainly has the class to win a race like this and he will no doubt come on plenty for his first run in a year. He's had a good trial since then as well. I think it is interesting connections have skipped Tuesday's race to just run him here although the Heavy track would be a small concern. Master Poet - A solid horse who should enjoy getting out to this trip given he was 2nd over 4000m over hurdles in 2019 and on the flat he's been 2nd over 3800m and 4th in the Jericho Cup which is over 4600m both in November last year. He's had two solid placings over fences at Warrnambool and Pakenham and he wouldn't be out of this. Vanguard - What a winner of the Brierly he was on Tuesday as he really toughed it out to beat his stablemate Britannicus. His trainer spoke beforehand that he would be better suited to the Grand Annual trip and he certainly ran like a dour stayer on Tuesday. In September he did win two races with just 4 days between them one a maiden hurdle and the other a maiden steeplechase over 4100m in heavy ground. That suggests he is tough enough to do the 2 day back up here. This will be tougher though, but clearly deserves to be favourite. Heberite - Bolted up in a BM120 Hurdle at Terang to start the season off and then made his chasing debut at Pakenham last time when he was 3rd behind Valac and Budd Fox. He was 3rd in last year's Jericho Cup and won over 3800m prior to that so you would imagine he will enjoy stepping up to this distance. He has a good heavy track record as well which will help him. This has no doubt been his target although I always worry about chasing experience for a race like this. Budd Fox - Was 2nd on the flat at this meeting last year after winning on hurdling debut at Pakenham. He was 4th on his only other hurdling start last year, but he has some very good flat form including finishing 2nd in the Jericho Cup. I thought he jumped very well on his steeple trial in March and then he stayed on strongly to nearly pip Valac at Pakenham on his steeplechase debut. Valac's rider did ease up so the margin should have been bigger, but the way he stayed on suggests he needs this sort of test. Again lack of experience is a concern, but he certainly has the class to win this. American In Paris - Was well beaten by Vanguard at Hamilton in April and it is hard to see him being able to reverse that form here unless Vanguard underperforms on the back up. San Remo - Pretty consistent over jumps, but at a lesser level than this and not sure he will be good enough. My Kings Counsel - Will be outclassed here. Eyes Are Blue - Another who shouldn't be good enough. Verdict - This should be a tremendous race and Vanguard could easily win this on the 2 day back up, but I think he is tight enough in the betting. I think Budd Fox will thrive for the trip and I really liked his performance at Pakenham last time as a prep for this. Obvious slight concern about jumping experience, but he jumped well round here in his trial. I am also backing Getting Leggie who I think will have been trained with this in mind and ran really well at Pakenham given the time off. Budd Fox 1.5ps @ 9/4 with William Hill Getting Leggie 1pt e/w @ 16/1 with William Hill
  12. No luck on day 1 sadly but we have 2 races on the 2nd day including the feature Hurdle of the week. Race 5 The betting sees Runaway and Under The Bridge miles clear of anything else, but I'm not sure about either of them. Runaway makes the running, but I'm not sure he will see the trip out. Simon Wilde had a fantastic day 1 with his horses and Under The Bridge did win on the flat 11 days ago so he is in good form. He was only average in maiden hurdles though and failed to finish in his one start in a maiden steeplechase last July. To be fair he might have had a problem that day and he trialled well enough last week over the larger obstacles. Even so I still think he looks on the short side. Instead I am going to tip up his stablemate Elvison. It seemed he had issues last year as he only ran twice over fences and disappointed both times and the last of which was last May at Casterton. He was better in 2020 though and he stays well as he showed when winning over 3800m at Casterton. He stayed on well enough over 1600m on the flat 17 days ago and I thought he looked good in his steeple trial last week so he looks the value in the race for me. Elvison 1pt e/w @ 12/1 with everyone Race 6 The big hurdle race of the week is the Galleywood and I think Saunter Boy can follow up his Pakenham success. He was made to work hard for it by Out And Dreaming who reopposes here, but he is worse at the weights and I don't see him being able to reverse the form. Out of those racing so far this year I do think Saunter Boy is the best hurdler we have seen and no doubt he has been aimed at peaking for this contest. It will be interesting to see how his stablemate Big Blue gets on and the last time he ran over hurdles was in the 2020 Cheltenham Festival. Last year he went over fences and won 1st up, but then disappointed in two subsequent starts. I suspect this is being used as a prep run before going back over fences, but he does have the ability to play a part. Saunter Boy 3pts @ 6/5 with Bet365 and William Hill
  13. Really looking forward to the next 3 days as it is the Warrnambool Carnival which sees some cracking jumping action and probably the biggest race in the jumps calendar, the Grand Annual on Thursday. Day 1 sees the maiden hurdle divided 3 times and the Brierly Steeplechase which will see some of the horses run in it and then back up in the Grand Annual on Thursday. Race 1 Those that have been over hurdles already don't set that tough a standard for the newcomers to overcome. Zouy's Comet ran well from the front at Pakenham last month on debut and kept trying although they finished in a bit of a heap so not sure about the strength on the form. I liked the way Lord Pierro trialled over hurdles last week as he jumped well on the whole so he could go well, but I do think the favourite Portland Jimmy will be hard to beat. He is the best on the flat out of these and landed the Donald Cup last year. I like the fact he's had plenty of hurdle practice having had 5 trials and he looked an experienced jumper in his trial here last week. This race has no doubt been the target and he's the one for me here. Portland Jimmy 1pt @ 11/10 with Bet365 Race 2 Count Zero is the favourite here which is down to the fact he's been in good form on the flat having won a couple of starts ago. I watched his last hurdles trial and although I wouldn't read much into the fact he was well beaten I wasn't overly impressed with it. Gravistas is an ex Mark Johnson who won at Newmarket on his last start over here which is his only win. I think he has a chance here as he seems to jump well and it could be that hurdles bring out some improvement from what he's been doing on the level of late. There was very little between Zedstar and Joshua Reynolds at Pakenham last month, but I was a bit disappointed with the latter who didn't seem to progress from his first up 2nd. Zedstar meanwhile is frustrating, but surely a maiden is going to come his way at some point and with Pateman on top here it could well be this one. Mighty Oasis was 2nd in a maiden hurdle last year and he's been doing OK on the flat of late so might also run well. Zedstar 1pt e/w @ 8/1 with Bet365 Gravistas 0.5pts e/w @ 12/1 with Bet365 Race 3 The former Irish trained Killourney is the favourite here on his hurdling debut and he does look the most likely winner. He's been running well in good races on the flat and his recent hurdle trail was decent. Rider In The Snow has also been running well on the flat, but I wasn't so impressed with his hurdle trial last time. This is probably the weakest of the 3 hurdles, but I just can't understand the price of Lady Fiorente. She didn't show a great deal on hurdles debut at Hamilton at huge odds and not surprisingly was a big price at Pakenham last time, but she ran really well to finish 2nd and was well clear of Zedstar and Joshua Reynolds. Maybe she wont repeat that effort, but if she does she has cracking place claims at the very least here and quite simply she shouldn't be the price she is. Killourney 3pts @ 5/6 with Betfred, Paddy Power and Betfair Lady Fiorente 0.5pts e/w @ 50/1 with Betfred and Ladbrokes Race 6 The feature race on Day 1 and as much I wouldn't rule out last year's 2nd Bit Of A Lad completely I do think the winner will come from either Vanguard or Valac. Both horses were impressive last time with Vanguard winning at Hamilton and Valac at Pakenham on his first start over fences and Valac is the one I am going to go with. I thought it was just about as good a jumps debut as you would wish to see at Pakenham and there was more depth to that race in my view. The winning margin was 0.2L, but his jockey eased up on him late on and he was value for much more than the winning margin. Britannicus did win here two starts back, but he was disappointing at Pakenham last time especially as he looked the winner at one stage. Valac 2pts @ 2/1 with Bet365
  14. Stockport v Boreham Wood This game is on BT Sport at 5.20pm and I think the home side can cover the handicap. The top 3 all lost last week and clearly nerves are creeping in, but I think back at home Stockport can get back to winning ways. I know Boreham Wood beat Bromley when I opposed them last week, but Bromley are in a bad way at the moment themselves and Wood went and lost to Southend on Tuesday night. Stockport have a big class edge for me at the moment and they appeal on the -1 handicap. Bath City v Tonbridge Angels Bath have had a disappointing season, but they are ending it quite strongly and the only teams to have beaten them at home in the last 9 home games are Dorking and Ebbsfleet. Tonbridge haven't won in 7 away games now and the home side look value. Gloucester v Chorley It didn't really happen for Gloucester last week although going down to 10 men didn't help. They do seem to be playing much better at home at the moment and there are quite a few players who will be looking to be offered deals at the end of the season. What will also be playing on some of the players minds is the fact Chorley won the reverse game 9-0 and I think they will be wanting to right that wrong. Chorley aren't convincing at the moment and I think the home side look value here. Spennymoor v Hereford Two sides who still have an outside chance of reaching the play-offs but I certainly think the home side are playing the better at the moment. Hereford have really struggled on the road of late and weren't great at Gloucester on Easter Monday so the home side look a big price to me. Stockport -1 @ 1pt @ 13/10 with Betfair, Betfred, Paddy Power and BetVictor Bath City 1pt @ 11/8 with William Hill and Coral (take up to 11/10) Gloucester City 1pt @ 7/4 with Betfair, Paddy Power and Betfred (take up to 6/4) Spennymoor 1pt @ 6/5 with Skybet, Paddy Power, Betfair, Betfred, Coral and Ladbrokes (take up to 11/10)
  15. Cheers and no she can't, but hopefully it was just a bit of an off day on that front as she jumped well in her previous races.
  16. Some strong fancies on the card so let's hope a profit is made. Every horse has been covered. 4.40 Rewritetherules - Ran his best race for his new owner/trainer/rider last time at Kempton when a 6L 2nd to Gesskille, but he didn't exactly look in need of a horse that wanted dropping back down in trip to 2m. That run last time though did suggest he still had the ability to win a race like this. Envious Editor - Had done most of his running over 2m when trained in Ireland so no real surprise that he has looked a bit of a non stayer in points. He's been a bit unlucky to bump into some good horses in the early part of the season as well because he would have finished 2nd to Feuille De Lune at Charing in December had he not unseated at the last and he was always going to struggle in deep ground at Chaddesley Corbett over Christmas given the pace Fier Jaguen set that day. He then went to Ludlow and ran in the first hunter chase of the season and he's travelled really well into the race before running out of steam after a mistake at the 3rd last. After that run he had a wind op which I think has probably also helped him as there is every chance that is also why he wasn't finishing his races off. His first run after that was at Brafield where he actually found himself outpaced over 3m before staying on into 3rd. A couple of weeks later he finally won a restricted where it took the 2 runners over 8 minutes to finish. Easter Saturday saw him put in a very impressive performance at Sandon where he bolted up by 15L. That was over 2m5f and it wasn't a strong race by any means, but crucially for me he saw his race out really well which is why I think the wind op has helped him. I imagine this race will have been the target and he's a big player. Envoye Special - Amazing how he's managed to win over 3m in points a couple of times this season as he looks a complete non-stayer in hunter chases. He even beat Sixteen Letters over 3m in December at Larkhill which is good form. His two hunter chase runs saw him go off way too quick in soft ground in the Welsh Foxhunter at Ffos Las and he duly failed to see out the trip. He took a keen hold at Stratford a month later, but was held up although the result was the same as he failed to stay again. After that he has bolted up in a Mixed Open at Trebuddon which is clearly a short track based on the winning time of 5.44. He was a really good 2nd in this last year to Fumet D'oudairies and he should be involved again. Not sure if James King has chosen to ride Envious Editor over him or not as Envious Editor is also owned by Cousin Pascal's owner. Famoso - I thought there was a bit of promise in the Southwell run where he just didn't stay and he was exhausted at Wincanton last time when falling at the last where his jockey should have pulled him up before the fence. Drop to 2m should suit, but I'd be surprised if he was good enough to beat at least a couple of this. Fan Club Aulmes - Apart from when pulling up at Charm Park last month he has had a very good season winning twice and finishing a close 2nd to Molineaux at Larkhill in February and that horse has won plenty this season. There is definitely some substance to his form and he won over 2m4f last season to give some hope the 2m trip should be fine. Has the very good Alice Stevens in the saddle and he certainly isn't out of this. Sparkleandshine - His only win under rules came back in 2018 over 2m so this drop down in trip could well suit, but the bigger issue could be if he is good enough. He was a good 2nd off 112 over 2m3f at Stratford last June, but back there in a hunter chase last month he never really got involved. He had been leading in his two points this season before not staying over 3m so maybe not being able to front run didn't help. He might not get the chance to do it here either and he was 18L behind Envoye Special that day. He wouldn't be a shock winner, but at the same time he doesn't make much appeal from a betting point of view. Kostantina - Wasn't very good on the flat and was struggling to get competitive when going pointing until she suddenly went and won at Dingley over Easter. Made all that day and will find it much harder to make the running against this quality of opposition. Verdict - Fan Club Aulmes certainly has a chance, but I think the winner will either be Envoye Special or Envious Editor. I have had to change this bit again as the prices this morning are very different to what they were last night. I was hoping to out up Envious Editor, but he went too short then this morning he has drifted out and it means he has become value again so he is the bet. Envoye Special who was the value last night has been backed this morning. For multi purposes I have permed the two of them up although the prices they are we can only really back one so it is Envious Editor. Envious Editor 1pt @ 15/8 with William Hill and Betvictor (take up to 11/8) 5.15 Castle Trump - Jumping was an issue when he first ran over here in 2020 as he failed to get round in 3 runs. He missed last season, but has been making up for lost time this season having won 5 of his 6 starts. He's been winning impressively and the only disappointing run was when he was 3rd at Horseheath in January, but he then went on to beat the winner of that race in a match last month. He's clearly useful and progressing, but I'm not sure there is too much depth to what he has been beating. Famous Clermont - Has shown quirks in the past having run out over hurdles last year and then idling badly when beaten by Marcle Ridge at Barbury in December and when Virak nearly caught him at Charlton Horethorne two starts back. He then went into a hunter chase at Exeter and he was really impressive and certainly wasn't stopping that day. Indirocco is a solid yardstick so to beat that horse by 8L in a canter was seriously impressive stuff. I do have a slight concern about the trip and you do have to worry slightly about him getting up the hill given his tendency to idle, but he has the best form in the race and sets a high standard. Go Go Geronimo - Took a while to win a maiden, but has looked fairly progressive since winning one at Duncombe Park in February. The only time he's been beaten since he won was in heavy ground and whilst he has a bit to find on bare form at least he's heading in the right direction. How To Get Away - Looked very good earlier in the season when beating Mammoth by 17L and then Clondaw Westie by 3L. The problem is he was beaten by Castle Trump (reversing form as mentioned above) and then Fier Jaguen last time. Clearly that is still good form, but with Rebel Dawn Rising also beating him last season he does look like the stables 2nd string. Minimalistic - Was miles behind Famous Clermont in January and although he has progressed since then winning his last two, it does look like he might struggle to stay this trip let alone be good enough to reverse the form. Rebel Dawn Rising - Was clearly progressing fast at the back end of last season when winning impressively at Garthorpe twice and then he bolted up on his seasonal return at Horsheath in February. He then made his hunter chase debut at Leicester and I think that race was a strong contest. He made the running at a fairly slow pace, but he stayed on really well to beat a good horse in Benefaktor and Sixteen Letters was back in 3rd so the form is rock solid for me. That was over 2m4f, but he has shown that he stays well also so I don't have to many concerns about the step up to this trip. I thought he jumped really well at Leicester which will also stand him in good stead here and he has to go on any shortlist. Steel Express - Only got a BHA rating of 94 and although he has won a point this season he was 7L behind Minimalistic last time and shouldn't be good enough. The Whistle Blower - Started the season with a couple of 3rd in maidens where he stayed on well in the first of them and finished tired in the 2nd of them. Then he went and won 3 on the bounce going through his grades in good style. He beat Every Minute who is a good horse two starts back at Brafield and then hacked up by 18L last time. Clearly progressing nicely although Every Minute is trained by Tom Ellis and they run Latenightfumble here which makes me think she is better than Every Minute so The Whistle Blower might well have to find more improvement to land this. Voie Dans Voie - Been well beaten by How To Get Away and Castle Trump this season so shouldn't be good enough to land this. Latenightfumble - As you might have guessed she is related to Latenightpass who actually won this race in 2019. She ran in a couple of point to point bumpers last season finishing 3rd at Aintree and then 2nd at Stratford where she looked every inch a stayer. This season she started of with a 2nd to Fier Jaguen at Chaddesley Corbett which was respectable return. She's then won 3 on the bounce in really good style although in the 2nd of those wins Fier Jaguen didn't run his race which is a shame as it would have given us something to rate the form on. She's clearly progressive and although on bare form she has a bit to find she has a leading chance. Luscious Lilly - Looks to have little chance. Sine Nomine - Another horse who looks very progressive and once she lost her maiden tag at Alnwick in January she has landed 4 on the bounce going through her grades. She didn't jump as well as she can last time, but her jumping has looked good before that and she hasn't really had to come off the bridle in any of her wins. She has to find more improvement again to land this, but she's certainly going the right way. Verdict - There are plenty of 1s in the form of these horses and it can be tricky trying to work out who brings the strongest form to the race. It has to be said though that Famous Clermont sets a very high benchmark and I'm not sure any of these will match what he has shown he is capable of. I do worry about what he might find off the bridle up the hill, but he might well just have too much class for them. The problem is his price and at the moment he is around the right price so it is hard to put him up as a single bet. Rebel Dawn Rising looks the biggest danger as I loved the way he jumped at Leicester and I think he will stay this far. Out of those that have yet to run in a hunter chase I think Sine Nomine could be the main one so at this stage I will have small win bets on those two and see if we get a drift on Famous Clermont, but he will be the one I put in the multi bets. Rebel Dawn Rising 0.5pts @ 9/2 with most bookies (take up to 7/2) Sine Nomine 0.5pts e/w @ 8/1 with Skybet, William Hill, Ladbrokes and Coral (take up to 6/1) 5.50 Fix Le Kap - Was a surprise 2nd in this last year given he wasn't coming into the contest in great form so to only lose by a neck to Trio For Rio was some effort especially as he came there looking like he was going to win on the run-in. He was then disappointing again in two runs pointing after that. This season he's finished a close 2nd a couple of times in small field points. If he runs like he did last year then he has a chance, but that run really does stick out like a sore thumb. Hidden Charmer - He has won over 3m pointing including last time over Easter at Chaddesley Corbett, but he's never really struck me as a horse who really stays 3m and he has nearly 2f further to travel here. He was 3rd at Ludlow behind Pont Aven in February, but again he just looked like a non stayer. I'm Wiser Now - 3rd in this race last year beaten 7L and he came into the race in much better form that he has so far this season as he had won a couple of hunter chases at Stratford. This year he was 3rd at Charing and then a very disappointing well beaten 5th at Leicester. He didn't jump well in this race last year as he jumped left handed and he may not have been in love with the track which is another worry. Knockaderry Flyer - Was a shock winner of this back in 2017 after which he became one of the worst handicapped horses in training as he was rated 125 for winning a bad race. He's been kept busy this season having run 8 times already and has actually won 3 including his last two. He was a well beaten 5th in this last year though and I couldn't have him repeating his 2017 success. Majestic Touch - Had 558 days off before making his debut for Alan Hill in March where he took a very keen hold before pulling up which wasn't a surprise as he'd never been 3m before. Last time at Kimble he finished last of 3 over 2m4f when looking outpaced. When he was running under rules before he also looked like he needed more of a stamina test so maybe now he's got the freshness out of the way he might stay better. If he was able to run up to his old rules form he wouldn't be out of this. Moratorium - Had a really good start to the season when winning 3 on the bounce including beating Tel'Art by 1/2L at Larkhill. His trainer rode him in a hunter chase at Warwick when he ran well to finish 2nd to Reikers Island and he looked like he could do with a bit of stiffer test of stamina. He was given a bit of a break after that and finished 4th at Didmarton when again looking like it was a bit sharp for him. Last time he just got up to win a 3 runner race. His trainer could easily have ridden him or he could have used Nathan Green again, but Myles clearly wants the horse to have the best chance possible so he has gone and booked Will Biddick for the ride. I'd imagine they have been training him for this as well and he looks to have an obvious chance. Over The Bridge - Still a maiden and only rated 50. Tel'Art - I fancied him at Stratford last time because I thought he hadn't been given a great ride at Bangor in soft ground and then he tried to keep tabs with Famous Clermont at Exeter and paid for it late on so he was overtaken for 2nd place. He ended up going off favourite at Stratford, but I think he just found things happening all a bit too quick for him given the pace Zamparelli set. Also the over watering of the ground didn't help and that is another concern here, but given he got so close to Moratorium at Larkhill in January I think he has to be a leading contender and just maybe he will finally get his ideal conditions. Trio For Rio - Last year's winner and he just held on despite jumping out to his left throughout which is something I expect him to do again here. He won a 3 runner race at the start of the season and then was 3rd at Larkhill behind Maitree Express, but it was probably disappointing he didn't beat Envoye Special for 2nd place. He then went to Kingston Blount where he pulled up. That was two months ago so I am guessing that he had an issue that day given we haven't seen him since and the run was too bad to be true. Clearly got obvious claims to land this contest again. Verdict - If Trio For Rio bounces back from his poor run last time then he has a chance of winning this for the 2nd year running, but the fact he jumps to his left isn't going to help him and although he could uphold form with those he beat in this race last year I think two that didn't run in the contest are good enough to land this. Moratorium looks like he's been lined up for this race and the fact his trainer has booked Will Biddick for the ride instead of riding him himself tells you they want him to have the best possible chance of winning. I am also going to cover Tel'Art who was just behind him earlier in the season and on his Exeter run I think he's got a very good chance here. He looks way over priced at 14/1. Moratorium 2pts @ 2/1 with William Hill and BetVictor (take up to 6/4) Tel'Art 1pt e/w @ 8/1 with Bet365 (take up to 5/1) 6.25 Cheltenham De Vaige - Won a Newton Abbot handicap off 112 in August and has run OK in 4 points this season and won the first of them beating Capitaine over 2m4f. Solid enough runs since, but would be a surprise winner of this. Dandy Dan - Ended up being pretty useful for Kim Bailey getting up to a mark in the 140s. He has given Laureen Keen-Hawkins some good experience this season in 5 points which have been her only ever rides. He nearly beat Sixteen Letters first up and was a staying on 3rd behind Captain Buck's after that. He was giving Caid Du Berlais a good race at Ston Easton until she suffered a pretty soft unseat at 2 out. He won well at Howick and then had no issues winning a match at Andoversford earlier in the month. Clearly the jockey's experience is a concern, but I think he still has a fair level of ability and if he gets round safely I can see him finishing strongly up the hill. Fifty Shades - Landed the Lord Ashton of Hydes Cup at Cocklebarrow in January over 3m6f and given his stamina I'm a little surprised he hasn't run in the 4m race. He beat Sumkindofking that day and beat the same horse at Didmarton which to be fair is a pretty sharp track. He wouldn't have been suited by a match at Maisemore last time so I wouldn't read too much into the fact he was beaten at 8/13 that day. He was 3rd in this race last year and this year's renewal looks a bit stronger on paper, but he's in good heart and can run well. Mighty Stowaway - Ran a huge race at the Festival when Jamie Codd kicked for home with Winged Leader plenty early enough which did for both their chances. Even so it was a new personal best for me to finish 3rd behind Billaway (who runs 10 minutes after this race starts). He was privately sold after that and the Sutton's purchased him and have sent him to Lawney Hill. He was due to run at Aintree but was taken out on the day of the race. He's been a solid horse over the years and clearly if he can repeat the Cheltenham 3rd then he has a leading chance. Salvatore - If they do over water than that will increase Salvatore's chances as he can be very good when there is cut in the ground. He got no luck in the Intermediate Final in 2019 when finishing 3rd which was a good run, but he ran no sort of race at the Festival last year. This season he's been very in and out. Obviously he won at Bangor two starts back, but I wouldn't read too much into that form as Porlock Bay wasn't at his best that day and Dieu Vivant is a serial loser. Having said that he did manage to reverse form with him at Southwell the next time, but Salvatore ran below par again and it left Dieu Vivant with a very easy task. He probably does have the ability to win this, but chances are he will have needed them to really over water to do so. Sumkindofking - Beat Cheltenham De Vaige last time, but was 2nd to Fifty Shades on this previous two starts. Obviously a good jockey booking, but he doesn't seem a likely winner to me. Zamparelli - Fell early on in the final race on this card last year and has had 4 2nds since he won at Ludlow last March. I thought his jockey left it a bit late to go after Bletchley Castle at Ludlow 2 starts back and then bizarrely he set a blistering gallop on his next start at Stratford. Not surprisingly he got tired and ended up finishing 2nd. My thinking was he is better over shorter distances than this, but perhaps he stays better now given he has looked a bit outpaced over shorter apart from last time where like I say he went too fast. I'm sure he will be ridden with more restraint here and could be capable of going well. Caryto Des Brosses - A horse who has been blighted with injury issues which is a shame because I think he had the potential to be a Foxhunters horse and to be fair he still could be given he is only 10. He won the Restricted race at Stratford's hunter chase night in 2018 and after that I had him down as a potential top notcher as I was very impressed with him that night. The next year he was just denied by Hazel Hill in this contest and then he was headed right on the line in the big race at Stratford by Wonderful Charm. He was only seen once in 2020 when he pulled up and then he only made it back in June last year for one win at Garthorpe. This year he has only beaten 4 rivals for two wins, but he couldn't have done it any easier and to me he still has the ability he had back in 2018 and 2019. I think he could easily go one place better this year. Geordie B - Thought he ran pretty well behind Dolphin Square at Lingfield in February and I think he is better than he was able to show at Carlisle last time where he only just got up to beat Shanroe Street. That one clearly did nothing for the form when beaten at Hexham last time although again I wouldn't use that as a guide as I think he should have won with a better ride. I think he will be better in a better race so I wouldn't rule him out totally, but he will have to find some more improvement I think. Story Of Friends - Stuff at Wincanton last time and has no chance here. Trappist Monk - Won a match at Aldington 11 days ago, but this is much tougher. Verdict - This is all about Caryto Des Brosses for me as I think he is the best horse in the race. It was no surprise the 9/2 that he opened up at was very quickly taken and he's much shorter now, but I just think he wins so I still think the price is value. If Mighty Stowaway repeats the Festival run then clearly he is likely to be the main danger and if the jockey can get Dandy Dan round then he might be capable of hitting the frame, but there really is little depth to this race for me. Caryto Des Brosses 4pts @ 13/8 with Paddy Power and Betfair (take up to Evs) 7.00 Wind Tor - Ran well enough when 3rd at Wadebridge in January and then went handicapping winning a couple at Exeter over 3m off 86 and 94. Last time though she finished last at Warwick although the trainer said the ground was too quick for her. Would need the front two in the betting to disappoint and for the ground to be over watered. Cashmoll - Won her last two, but one was a walkover and the other basically a match. I think her chance is highlighted by the fact she was 51L behind Mammoth at Horseheath on New Years Eve and Feuille De Lune beat that horse by 30L last time. Feuille De Lune - One of the most impressive pointers to have run this season. She really is some tool having won 4/4. The first win in November she finished alone and then the winning margins for her other wins are 25L, 25L and 30L. At the first of those at Charing Envious Editor would have finished 2nd but for unseating at the last and she had easily despatched him. Last time at Charm Park she was so good that every other horse but the 2nd pulled up in the race. The trainer has described her as the best horse she has trained and considering she trained Top Wood who was placed twice in the Foxhunter here and won the Aintree Foxhunters' that proves how good she is. The one thing about her though is she jumps to the right which is clearly a concern round here. Still I think she will be too good anyway and really only has one other horse to beat. Kalabaloo - That other horse is this one and she won the race in 2019 in really good style. In 2020 she was 9th at the Festival and then last year she suffered an injury in her only start at Kelso causing her to miss the rest of the season. This season she won her first 3 starts in really good fashion, but then at the start of this month was very disappointing a Edgcote finishing a well beaten last. She needs to bounce back from that, but she obviously must be well at home otherwise she wouldn't be running. Looks the only danger to Feuille De Lune. Tb Broke Her - Hasn't run too badly in her last couple of points, but has plenty to find with the principles. Verdict - As long as she doesn't blow her chance by jumping out to the right then I don't see how Feuille De Lune doesn't win this. She has looked so good in her 4 pointing wins this season and has a serious engine. It is no surprise she has been backed into favouritism, but there is still some value in the price for me in what should be a match. Kalabaloo won this in 2019 and looks the only one good enough to take advantage should the jumping prove to be Feuille De Lune's downfall. Feuille De Lune 4pts @ Evs with most bookies (take up to 4/6) 7.35 Captain Drake - New connections paid £21k at the sales for him last month after he had pulled up in the Midlands National. The positives are that he stays really well and was 4th in last season's Welsh National as well as finishing 2nd in the 2020 Midlands National. He had looked on the downgrade this season until he won the Devon National at Exeter in February off 127. He is a horse who has already had two wind ops and has worn a tongue tie on his last 8 starts, but the vet reported after the Uttoxeter run last time that he had a breathing problem. That has to be a concern although if he runs up to his Exeter run then he clearly is a big player. Coup De Pinceau - Well behind Give Me A Copper at Newbury last time and looks an unlikely winner. Dawson City - We know he stays really well and finished 3rd behind Captain Drake at Exeter two starts back. He was beaten just under 10L that day when they carried the same weight and with jockey's claims here he gets 4lbs tonight. He ran OK over hurdles last time when finding it a bit sharp for him round Taunton. This test should be ideal for him and hard not to see him running well. Gran Paradiso - Won a handicap at Sedgefield off 104 just over a year ago and managed to win a Mixed Open at Cothelstone over 3m4f last month. Was beaten at 1/2 at Barbury next time though. Stamina should be fine, but hard to see him having the class to win this. Law Of Gold - I was rather surprised to see him entered in this as I thought they would look for a lesser race before heading back to Stratford for Stratford Foxhunters. He was very good that night in beating Bob And Co and prior to that he had got the better of Shantou Flyer at Fontwell. The big issue is his 3 runs this season. He ran no sort of race at Wetherby and then at Ascot although he won his only other rival Adrian Du Pont burst a blood vessel. I thought he looked a bit lazy that day and he certainly did at Fakenham last week when he never really travelled well at all and certainly never really looked like winning. I guess it could have been a sharp enough test for him, but even so he made heavy weather of getting past the 3rd. This is clearly a very different test though and although he's never been this far he ought to stay. They have also put the cheekpieces on to try and wake him up. What also has to be a concern is that connections have said they weren't going to run him in the Festival Hunter Chase anymore because he doesn't like the water jump. Both times he ran in the race he's made a mistake at the water jump and although in 2020 he ran OK to finish 7th he ended up pulling up last year. Obviously he's at a lesser level here, but he arrives with a few question marks over him. Shantou Flyer - He loves Cheltenham having won twice, finished 2nd 4 times and 3rd twice in 10 starts here. He's pulled up a couple of times in the Grand National, but you would imagine he will stay fine in a race like this. He's just been seen once this season when beating Jett at Fontwell although given how that horse ran at Aintree and the fact he looked like he dogged it a bit at Fontwell I'm not sure he achieved a huge amount. Even so he should be capable of running a big race at his favourite track. Give Me A Copper - He has looked an ideal candidate for this race all season and it wouldn't surprise me if this has been the target. He ran as if he found 3m round Warwick on the sharp side when 3rd in January on his debut for new connections. Last month he then went to Ludlow in race which turned into a match and I thought Will didn't use enough of his stamina which allowed Gesskille to beat him with his pace. That was still a good effort though because the winner looked very good when winning at Kempton next time out. Then at the start of the month he went to Newbury over just short of 3m and it was no surprise to see him get outpaced before staying on really well to finish 2nd to Ami Desbois. I think that is a really strong piece of form and Solomon Grey who was 3rd that day bolted up at Ludlow last week. He's got the cheekpieces on for the first time to help him as well, but 4m round here looks right up his street. The race is probably a little stronger than I thought it might be, but I think he's got better with every run this season and as I say that 2nd at Newbury is rock solid, so I think he has a fantastic chance. Mr Snuffles - Looks like he will be outclassed here. Optimised - Won a hunter chase at Bangor in 2019 and was 1L 2nd to Southfield Theatre in this race in 2019. He also ran well enough in this last year when 6th, but he hasn't looked in any sort of form this season and whilst coming back to this race might perk him up it is hard to see him hitting the frame in the form he is in. Popelys Gull - Shouldn't be anywhere near good enough to land a blow here. Roc D'Apsis - Well beaten in the Grand Military Gold Cup last month and although he won a point a couple of months later he was well beaten at Kimble over Easter and shouldn't be good enough. Sam Red - Regardless of the rest of his form he seems to love this race as he was 3rd (albeit 27L behind the winner) in 2019 and then last year he was 2nd beaten a length by Captain Cattistock. There is nothing remotely in the rest of his form to suggest he should be a player in this and he was 62L behind Shantou Flyer at Fontwell. Even so given his record in the race if you want to take a chance e/w I could hardly blame you. Smoke Man - Comes here on the back of landing a hat-trick in points and he looks like he will stay this sort of trip and would be in better form than he was when he tried 3m5f last year. I really respect his trainer, but the form of those wins are someway below what some of these have managed and he will need to improve a fair bit to win this. Verdict - Must admit that this race is a little stronger than I had hoped when I earmarked Give Me A Copper out for the race, but I still think he rates a fantastic bet at the prices. He has been running well all season especially at Newbury last time and he has been crying out for a stamina test which he finally gets. Shantou Flyer has a great record here and if he wins it wouldn't surprise, but his price is shocking as I don't think he achieved a great deal at Fontwell. If the stamina test and cheekpieces turn out to be what Law Of Gold needs then he rates the main danger to Give Me A Copper. Dawson City and Captain Drake need the ground to be overwatered in my view as both seem at their best with cut in the ground, but at least both will stay. Give Me A Copper 3pts @ 5/1 with most bookies and 11/2 in a place (take up to 3/1) 8.10 Across The Line - Syd Hosie has paid £28k for him at the sales a month ago and he looks a solid 120 horse, but you are going to need to be better than that to win this. Cousin Pascal - Gave it a good go from the front in the Foxhunters', but faded into 5th late on. I can't help but feel that he left his race behind him when running at the Festival where he didn't really have a great experience. He's good enough to win this, but I'm not sure he's going to be at his best after two tough races. Peacocks Secret - Was 3rd in this last year when he travelled really well into the race but didn't quite see it out as well as the two in front of him. Has been running consistently again this year and was suited by hold up tactics at Stratford when beating Zamparelli who went too fast that day. He then walked over at Dingley last time. He's got a place chance again, but this looks quite a hot race. Stratagem - Was pulled up at Hereford on his hunter chase debut when Paul Nicholls' horses were running poorly so it wasn't a huge surprise when he put that performance behind him when bolting up at Ludlow beating Solomon Grey by 16L. That was hugely impressive and it was disappointing he got beat at Warwick a few days later. I did think that if Maxwell had kicked for home earlier though then Not That Fuisse wouldn't have caught him. Also it might have come soon enough after the Ludlow win. He looks a top class horse and should go close. Wagner - Beat Cousin Pascal at Hereford and then benefitted from Adrian Du Pont falling when in total command at Wincanton. Still it was a good effort as he didn't jump as well as he had at Hereford in ground he would have found soft enough. I thought he gave Bletchley Castle too much rope at Ludlow last time and he could never reel him in. Stepping back up in trip will probably suit and he has place claims here. Ami Desbois - As I've already mentioned elsewhere he won a really hot form race at Newbury when beating Give Me A Copper who will hopefully have given the form a boost in the previous race. I actually think the slight drop down in trip might suit him as he looks to have plenty of pace based on the fact he's made the running on all 3 starts this season. There is no better trainer than Fergal O'Brien at knowing what horses to send hunter chasing and he proved it again with this horse. I thought his jockey gave him a good ride at Newbury and the 7lbs is going to come in handy as it means Stratagem has to give him 11lbs. A leading contender to make all. Solomon Grey - He helped frank the Newbury form by bolting up at Ludlow last week and although he had little to beat in the end the time was decent and it was a good performance. He does have ground to make up on Stratagem and Ami Desbois having been 16L and 6L behind them at Ludlow and Newbury, but he looked like he might have come forward again last week. I'm still not sure he can reverse the form, but he clearly is one of the leading contenders. Clondaw Westie - Ran really well to finish 2nd in this last year and that came on the back of running a huge race to finish 4th in the Aintree Foxhunters' and he was unlucky to lose at Stratford as he unseated Izzie at the last when looking the likely winner. Clearly trained for Aintree again this year he was in 2nd when again unseating Izzie this time at the Canal Turn. This looks a stronger race than last year, but he could easily run well again. Eeze A Saint - A bit of a dark horse as he came over from France where he fell on his last start in March last year. He then bolted up in a point at Bitterley at the beginning of the month where beat Master Sunrise by 22L. We can at least going back to his pointing form in 2019 where easily won an Intermediate to break his maiden tag. Chances are he is going to have to be very good to win a race like this, but he clearly has ability. Midnight Cowboy - Ran pretty well at Fakenham last week when 3rd to Not That Fuisse and whilst that gives him a form chance through that horse this is likely to be a very different type of race and he shouldn't be good enough. Point And Sharp - Was awful at Kempton last time and will do well to get round here. Verdict - This is a good race, but I really do think Stratagem has a class edge on his rivals. That Ludlow performance was one of the best of the season and he really ought to have won at Warwick, but even so if Not That Fuisse was running in this he would be one of the fancied horses. I do want Ami Desbois on side as well as that Newbury run was very good. This is the race with the most depth in it though as the next few in the betting all have some sort of chance as well, but I am going to have a small e/w bet on Eeze A Saint. I wasn't originally going to back him, but he clearly has ability and he's a much bigger price than I thought he would be so he can be added to the bets. Stratgem 1.5pts @ 2/1 with William Hill and BetVictor 9/4 with Bet365 (take up to 7/4) Ami Desbois 1pt @ 4/1 with pretty much everyone (take up to 11/4) Eeze A Saint 0.25pts e/w @ 33/1 with everyone (take up to 20/1)
  17. Boreham Wood v Bromley We have to thank Boreham Wood as a lot of the profit side of things has come from opposing them lately. I am more than happy to oppose them again. We have two sides who were bang in contention for the play-offs, but both sides have seen poor form mean they won't now make them. Bromley's issue has been scoring goals and they missed some good chances against Maidenhead on Monday. That obviously is a concern here, but at least they have won recently whereas Boreham Wood haven't and the price difference between the two sides is way too big. Chippenham v Dulwich Hamlet I thought Mike Cook leaving Chippenham might see them suffer a loss of form, but that hasn't really happened and I think they can pick up 3 points here. Dulwich have really struggled for weeks now and no wins in 9 games has seen them more than likely blow a play-off place. Chippenham are still in the play-off hunt and they had a good win over Oxford City last time. They look in better nick at the moment and are worth backing. Chorley v AFC Telford Chorley are struggling of late as I highlighted recently when I opposed them with Alfreton. I thought Telford would pull away from the relegation zone, but they haven't done quite as well as I thought they would. Even so they have been picking up points and they are capable of getting something out of this so look a decent price. Southport v Spennymoor Happy to oppose Southport again as they are really struggling on the whole. Spennymoor are one of the form sides at the moment and I think they can pick up another 3 points here as they try and claim a play-off spot. York v Gloucester York are pretty inconsistent at the moment and lost 3-0 to Alfreton on Monday and Gloucester have been doing pretty well of late apart from a poor performance at Kettering on Good Friday. Their only other 2 losses in the last 10 games though were a harsh defeat at Telford and against Gateshead who not surprisingly outclassed them. They look over priced to get 3 more points here. Grantham v South Shields South Shields' away from has stopped them from winning the league. When they beat FCUM on Saturday that was their first away win in 9 matches and even that wasn't a deserved win. I don't think they will chase the title now as the goal difference is too big really and they can't finish lower than 2nd so I think they might rest some players in this with the play-offs in mind. Grantham are already relegated, but have had a couple of decent results in their last two games and if South Shields do ease of then they could win this. Merstham v Carshalton Merstham have lost 10 on the bounce and have scored 5 and conceded 27 in that time. That means they are bottom of the table, but they still have a chance of beating in the drop and this could be the perfect game for them. Carshalton have shown themselves to be on the beach already and with nothing to play for the home side might just be able to get the result they need. Bromley 1pt @ 9/4 with Paddy Power, Betfair and Bet365 (11/4 with Skybet and take up to 7/4) Chippenham 1pt @ 7/5 with William Hill (take up to 5/4) AFC Telford 1pt @ 15/4 with Paddy Power, Betfair and BetVictor (4/1 with William Hill and take up to 11/4) Spennymoor 1pt @ 7/4 with Betfred (15/8 with William Hill and take up to 11/8) Gloucester 1pt @ 14/5 with Betfair and Paddy Power (bigger with William Hill and take up to 2/1) Grantham 1pt @ 2/1 with Bet365, Paddy Power, Betfair and William Hill (take up to 13/8) Merstham 1pt @ 21/10 with Bet365, Paddy Power, Betfair and William Hill (take up to 7/4)
  18. My maths was wrong and I have staked 32.5 not 31.5. Coalville and Farnborough have both placed so returns are 36.38 so we have guaranteed profit for another season. Hayes and Dorking have outside chances of winning their league's whilst it looks like it will only be place money for Tshimanga.
  19. Great to land a massive number with Dover on Good Friday especially as we haven't had a great deal of luck with any of the real big prices that I have put up this season. It was a deserved win as well by the sounds of it. Alfreton were also winners on Good Friday. Onto Easter Monday and just time for the tips of which there are 8. Wealdstone to beat Boreham Wood 1pt @ 14/5 with Skybet, Coral and Ladbrokes (take up to 2/1) Alfreton to beat York 1pt @ 11/5 with William Hill, Paddy Power and Betfai (take up to 15/8) Farsley Celtic to beat Southport 1pt @ 21/10 with Skybet, BetVictor and William Hill (take up to 7/4) Corinthian Casuals to beat Carshalton 1pt @ 12/5 with Bet365, Betfair and Paddy Power (take up to 2/1) Bishops Stortford to beat Cheshunt 1pt @ 9/5 with Bet365 (take up to 6/4) Leatherhead to beat Kingstonian 1pt @ 4/1 with Betfair and Paddy Power (take up to 2/1) Bromsgrove to beat Stratford 1pt @ 6/5 with Betfair, Paddy Power and Bet365 (take up to Evs) Coalville to beat Rushall Olympic 1pt @ 6/5 with Betfair, Paddy Power and Bet365 (take up to Evs)
  20. The one downside to betting on Australian racing is we don't get BOG and also I'm asleep when the races happen. James Reynolds drifted to over 20/1 which was made, but at least he hit the frame. What was even more annoying though was I really fancied Vanguard and he drifted so much he didn't even go off favourite for the race! Still these things can't be helped. Easter Monday sees an all jumps card at Pakenham and we have some really good action to look forward to with two feature races over hurdles and fences as horses are looking to build up fitness for the Warrnambool Festival at the start of May. Race 1 Zedstar seems the obvious place to start as he managed to finish 2nd on his first 4 hurdle starts last season and then 3rd on his following 2. He got really close to breaking his duck in a couple of those 2nds and it would be surprising if he doesn't find a race sooner rather than later. He ran well on the flat last month which is a good sign. Pueblo is the other main contender to come from last year's hurdle races and although he was well beaten in all 3 starts he did finish 3rd once and 2nd twice and he was beaten by good horses so although the margins were big enough in the context of this race I think they are strong runs. He won on the flat last month and was beaten less than 3L despite finishing last earlier this month. I think he's a good chance here. Johnny Buccaneer and Dr Dependable were 4th and 2nd at Warrnambool and there wasn't much between them that day. Dr Dependable was then 4th at Hamilton last time behind Blenheim Palace which was another decent effort. However he was 3L behind Joshua Reynolds and I think the form will be upheld here. I put Joshua Reynolds up e/w at Hamilton and I can't believe he drifted to such a big price as it was way too big based on his 2019 hurdles form where he had finished a close 2nd twice. As I mentioned last time he missed 2020 and only had the 1 flat start in February 21. I thought it was cracking run as he'd only had 3 flat starts and a couple of trials to get him ready. He will surely strip fitter here and he's got a big chance. I'm really surprised by the betting here and I can't understand why Joshua Reynolds is as big as he is and why Dr Dependable is favourite so he is the main bet. I am also covering Zedstar as I thought he was likely to be the market leader so he's over priced as well. Before seeing the prices I thought Pueblo might be the one who was over priced, but as it stands I think he's about right at 3/1. Joshua Reynolds 1pt @ 11/2 with Paddy Power, Betfair, Coral, Ladbrokes and Betfred Zedstar 0.5pts @ 6/1 with Paddy Power, Betfair, Betfred, Coral and Ladbrokes Race 2 I don't think this is a strong race on paper. Annoyingly neither hurdle trial of Blandford Lad is available to view, but he is the best flat horse of these and won a decent handicap at Flemington last month. Nothing in this could get anywhere near that level on the flat. Some of these showed useful enough form over hurdles last season. Not Usual Dream didn't have a great start over hurdles last year, but then finished 2nd twice and 3rd twice. Has had flat runs and 2 hurdles trials for fitness and he can go well. Once Were Lost showed ability over hurdles last year, but I thought his 2 steeplechase runs were better. He's had 3 trials and a flat run for fitness. Onset has run over hurdles 9 times for 2 2nds and 3 3rds. I thought her best effort was over course and distance so that bodes well. Should be fit enough after 4 flat runs and 3 trials. Of the other hurdle newcomers Zouy's Comet and Runaway Train look the most likely contenders. Again no video footage of either's hurdle trials but the former did win his latest one. What was interesting was that after his flat run last week the trainer reported to the stewards that he'd trailed well over hurdles which bodes well. He was essentially pulled up in that run, but his jockey thought there was something amiss although he was fine after the race. His previous start saw him finish a close 2nd. Runaway Trian has been running pretty well at a low level on the flat of late and has had a couple of hurdle trials leading into this. If Blandford Lad transfers his flat class to hurdles then he ought to be winning this and understandably he's pretty short so for me it is a race just to watch. Race 3 I think this winner of 1 Hurdle race could be a very hot form race and I think it looks tricky. We have Hush Writer and Blenheim Palace who have both looked good in winning maiden hurdles this season and are classy horses coming from the flat. We then have horses who have won maiden hurdles last season. Brungle Bertie wouldn't have the other two's flat class, but he did it well when winning his only hurdle start to date. Rolland Garros was poor on his hurdling debut, but he looked good on his next start and then went to Ballarat at the end of the season and was a very good 2nd. He's good enough to win this, but it was interesting that his jockey's reported he needs a heavy track after his two defeats so the ground is unlikely to be soft enough for him. My guess is that this run is being used to get his eye in ahead of Warrnambool. Sir Edwin Landseer looks the other one to have a chance of winning. He's really lost his way badly on the flat, but showed he liked hurdling last year with his first two runs over hurdles the peak of his efforts. He's trialled well over hurdles ahead of this and he should run well. I've really fancied Annunciate on both starts this season, but I can't have him winning a race like this on the back of those 2 efforts. I think there is some value in backing Blenheim Palace whose 2nd in the betting behind Hush Writer. I thought both did it well enough on debut and I wouldn't have as much between them as the betting does. It is no surprise that the opening 6/1 about him was taken. I'm also going to cover Sir Edwin Landseer as he's a huge price based on his hurdling form. I can only think they have him priced up on his flat form. Blenheim Palace 1pt @ 16/5 with Bet365 Sir Edwin Landseer 0.5pts e/w @ 25/1 with Ladbrokes and Coral Race 4 Gobstopper - Very good hurdler in 2020 winning 4 times including the Australian Hurdle at Sandown. Missed last year and has had 7 starts on the flat and had some trials this year. Not been showing a great deal on the flat and I'd rather watch for now. Saunter Boy - Won the winner of 1 hurdle on this card last year and then bolted up in the Australian Hurdle. He then continued in good for with another win over hurdles and two very good runs on the flat before disappointing in the Grand National Hurdle. He bounced back though to take the JJ Hurdle at Ballarat at the end of the season. He's had a couple starts on the flat ahead of this and has run OK in both as he looks to be building his fitness. Going to be a big player here. Eckhart - Won a couple of times last year over hurdles, but not at the same level of some of these. Been building up his fitness on the flat this year, but would need to have improved to win this. Runaway - Was well beaten in this last year and would have to step up again to do better this time around. Ran OK on the flat last month which was his first start since July. Out And Dreaming - Was 2nd in the maiden on this card last year and then went and won 3 on the bounce. He was then 20L behind Saunter Boy at Warrnambool, but the ground was very testing that day and the fact he wasn't seen again suggests there may have been an issue. Not as good as some of these on the flat, but he won a couple of races back in February. He's won a couple of hurdle trials that will have got his eye in and he has a good chance here. Tamarack - Won his first two starts over hurdles within 7 days of each other at Sale and Sandown last year, but then only beat 1 home in the JJ Hurdle. Not shown much on the flat this year, but clearly going to apricate going back over hurdles. Could be a possible improver this season. St Arnicca - This is certainly stronger than the race he won Warrnambool last month, but he did it nicely and at least has a recent run over hurdles in his favour. A good race for the feature hurdle on the card, but I do think Saunter Boy is the most likely winner so he is the main bet. I'm also going to cover Out And Dreaming who on this better ground can at least get closer to Saunter Boy. Saunter Boy 1.5pts @ 8/5 with Bet365 Out And Dreaming 0.5pts @ 4/1 with Betfred Race 5 Cracking race this and I think it will be won by one of the 3 chasing newcomers. Heberite is 2/2 over hurdles having won the last maiden hurdle of last year at Ballarat and then winning on the opening card of this season at Terang where he beat a weak field with ease. There is only video footage of his first chase trial and he jumped OK when finishing 3rd of 3. He won his last one though so his jumping could well have improved in that trial. Valac won his first two hurdles and then seemed to not stay 3900m at Sandown in the Australian Hurdle. He was spelled after that and then ran on the flat 4 times in the Autumn. He's had two steeple trails and again there is only footage of the first one, but he jumped really well in it when finishing 2nd. He won the 2nd one in a 3 second quicker time than Heberite and although its been a while since he ran in a race proper he looks like he will be fit enough for this. Budd Fox just had the two starts over hurdles last year and he won the maiden hurdle on this card in the first of them before disappointing a little when 4th at Sandown the following month. He then went back to the flat for the rest of the year running well on the whole. He's had three flat starts this year and he won a BM78 at Sandown last month and then on April 6th was 2nd in similar contest. He's clearly flying and in between those two efforts he had a steeple trial where I was really impressed with his jumping. I'm really keen on Budd Fox here as he comes here in great form and I loved his jumping in his trial. I will also have a cover bet on Valac who I would have as 2nd favourite over Heberite. It would be surprising if one of those 3 doesn't win. Budd Fox 2.5pts @ 11/8 with William Hill, Coral and Ladbrokes Valac 0.5pts @ 14/5 with Bet365 Race 6 The feature steeplechase on the card features one of the best chasers in Zed Em. He was 2nd in the Grand Annual last year having run in the two big chases at Oakbank (sadly no more) finishing 2nd both times. He's had 3 flat starts in New Zealand and one in Australia prior to a couple of steeple trials. He clearly has a chance of taking this on his way to the Grand Annual, but I think he might find this a sharp enough test and clearly he is being trained to peak next month. Riding High landed last year's Australian Chase at Sandown so he is certainly capable enough of winning a race like this. This is a very different test though and although he's been running OK on the flat this year I do think he might be better in a couple of starts time. Getting Leggie was 2nd in this 2 years ago and then went on to win the Brierly at Warrnambool although he disappointed on his other two starts that year. Last year his only run was in the Von Doussa at Oakbank and he must have picked up an injury as he only beat one home and then wasn't seen again. He's had a steeple trial and a hurdle this year but not shown a great deal and as much as he does have the ability to win this my thinking is he will need it fitness wise. This is a step up from the two races Britannicus has run in so far this season, but I thought he was pretty impressive at Warrnambool and I think this further step up in trip will suit him as well. We know he's fit and I just wonder if connections will have eyed up this race as a suitable early season target for him, because to me the others either shouldn't be good enough or are likely to have targets in the future like Zed Em for example. So for me Britannicus is a pretty confident selection. Britannicus 2.5pts @ 13/10 with Bet365
  21. Yeah I’d love to be able to see her race in the flesh but I feel that’s the only thing I’m really missing out on. She ran a huge race and the sp was just as big. She won just under $30k as well for finishing 2nd
  22. Thank you and I live in London. I have an Australian wife so although I’ve always loved the Melbourne Cup I made sure a few years ago to learn more about racing in Oz in case we ever move. During covid I was purchasing the Australian racing paper online to help with my previews on here and saw her advertised and took the plunge. With prize money levels in Oz I knew there was a fair chance she would win enough to pay for some of her training fees and in just 4 starts she has earned $33k. If she wins tomorrow it’s $70k to the winner. I own 2.5% and pay $100 a month. As much as the chances of me watching her race in the flesh are slim it is so easy to watch her races her and the information provided along the way has been superb. I have 5% in another horse with a different syndication company but he’s yet to reach the racetrack yet.
  23. 5.45am sees my Australian horse Beneficio make her metro debut when she runs at Caulfield in R5. It's a really competitive race as it is 5/1 the field and there are quite a few you could give chances to so I am not going to recommend a bet as I have done when she has run before. What I can tell you though is that the trainer is really happy with the filly and that she has worked really well since the win last time. He must think quite a bit of her to send her straight into this sort of company on the back of the maiden win and she has a decent draw so hopefully she will be able to use her good start and early speed to lead them. It will then be a case of if she is good enough to stay there. It could be that she runs really well and finishes mid div, but I do think she is a bit over priced at around 20-25/1 so I am having a small e/w bet on her and hopefully she can go close.
  24. Boreham Wood v Dover I am taking a complete flyer here, but Dover are over priced to win this. Boreham Wood haven't won in 8 now and prior to scoring against Aldershot last week they hadn't scored in 5. They were rubbish against Woking the other week and to lose to an Aldershot side who have been woeful for weeks is shocking. Dover obviously are the poorest side in the league, but they have been trying very hard in recent weeks and arguably have been unlucky not to have got more points on the board. They are playing with plenty of fight and Wood really are stuck in a rut right now. Maidenhead did have an xG of over 5 against them on Saturday, but it still took until very late for them to actually get a winner. Clearly the home side should be odds on favs, but we can get at least 16/1 about a Dover win and that's just too big. Eastleigh v Bromley Another team who were trying to get in the play-offs are Bromley, but whilst they are heading to Wembley for the FA Trophy Final, their league form has deserted them. They haven't won in 10 now and Eastleigh haven't done too badly since the new manager come in. They were unfortunate to lose to Wrexham last week and I think they have a solid chance of beating Bromley. Notts County v Kings Lynn Again taking a flyer here, but Kings Lynn are giving themselves a real chance of staying up as I mentioned last week. County were woeful on Saturday when losing 5-1 to Torquay and if they under estimate Kings Lynn then they might just come unstuck again. Again clearly the home side should be odds on, but Kings Lynn aren't without hope here. Boston v Bradford Park Avenue Bradford are in good form at the moment and are unbeaten in 5. Boston are better at home than they are away from home, but Bradford have got a 0-0 draw at Gateshead recently so they can come here and win in my view. Boston had a good win at Curzon last week, but they aren't very good and they have been very in and out of late. Again the away win is simply too big. Chorley v Alfreton Chorley got a good draw last night against York, but I'm not sure they have been playing as well in general as they were earlier in the season so I am taking a chance that Alfreton can get a result here. Alfreton have only lost to Fylde and Brackley in their last 10 games and have been much improved after struggling to win football matches. Dover 1pt @ 12/1 with William Hill and Betfred (16/1 with Ladbrokes and Coral) take up to 7/1 Eastleigh 1pt @ 11/5 with Skybet, Coral, Ladbrokes and Betfred (take up to 7/4) Kings Lynn 1pt @ 7/1 with Skybet, William Hill and Betfred (15/2 with Ladbrokes and Coral take up to 9/2) Bradford Park Avenue 1pt @ 5/1 with William Hill and Paddy Power (take up to 11/4) Alfreton 1pt @ 4/1 with Skybet and Betfred (take up to 3/1)
  25. Worthing are champions so add another 15pts to the returns to take it up 27pts returned.
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