Darran

Yeah will be fascinating to see what happens. I suspect the form will be reversed, but will be a watching race rather than a betting race.

So may as well start the latest update by answering this question and the answer to both questions is yes. He was already qualified ahead of this season although it was only after I told connections this point that they realised this was the case. He ran against Con's Roc again on the last weekend of January and he managed to reverse the form despite the fact Con's Roc went off 4/9 to beat him. No surprise that the winner made all as he always tries to do and he did make a mistake at 2 out, but kept on well to beat the 2nd by 0.75L. Not surprisingly he was trimmed after that into 16/1. I really like the horse, but I do just wonder if he is still as good as he was in 2023 and if 3m2f at Cheltenham might just stretch him again, especially if his jumping isn't up to scratch. Still at least it was a positive run going into the Festival. As for Con's Roc that 2nd meant he still isn't qualified for the race. He wasn't entered at Naas on Saturday so it will be the case that he will have to win an open point to get himself qualified. He ought to find a simple opportunity to do so, but it isn't the ideal situation. Speaking of that Naas contest which is always the main trial in Ireland for this and we could be seeing Big Interest v Its On The Line take 2 after they were 1st and 2nd at Down Royal on Boxing Day. Johnny Dineen has caused two horses to be really well backed since my last update. Angels Dawn he put up as one of his best bets at the meeting and is now no bigger than 5/1. The following week he also highlighted the claims of Wilitgoahead after he was very impressive at Thurles. He had been 2nd to Con's Roc at Limerick and my initial thinking was the winner would find more improvement given it was his seasonal return and Wilitgoahead had already had 3 runs. Jamie Codd reported though in his ATR column that the 2nd had a good blow after the race and he needed the run. That surprises me, but he would know more than me in that regard. He got a RPR of 131 for winning at Thurles although beating Ramilies by 3.5L, albeit could have been more, wouldn't make me rate it as high as that. Worth adding that his jockey won't be able to use his 7lbs claim at Cheltenham. On the same day that Rocky's Howya was beating Con's Roc, Fairly Famous was winning a 3 runner race at Horseheath at 1/4. He did what he needed to do and clearly being trained steadily this season with Cheltenham in mind. Connections did this when winning the Aintree Foxhunters with Latenightpass so it doesn't put me off that he has only had a couple of easy tasks and it will be more a question of if he is good enough. The main hunter chase in the UK was the Warwick one back on January 20th where Lift Me Up bounced back to form in winning it in good style. He had better ground than on his return at Chaddesley which helped and I thought the first time cheekpieces helped as well. I was quite impressed as he idled on the run-in and Bennys King had made a good test. With his famous owners I am sure he will bring some extra interest into the race and he'd be a contender if on a going day. The concern is he can under perform and hasn't been at his best in his 2 previous runs at Cheltenham. Also he was quite buzzed up at Warwick in a red hood, something I haven't notice him do before, and if he did that at Cheltenham that could be a worry. He reversed form with Jeux d'Eau and I wouldn't be thinking about this race for him now. Lord Du Mesnil and Eva's Oskar are going to struggle to qualify having finished 4th and 6th and the latter was well beaten anyway. Paul Nicholls might be trying to qualify Shearer for race as he runs at Ffos Las on Thursday, but there are only 3 races after that he can run in, so it might be that he relies on Mr Glass who he co-owns and is trained by Will Biddick. He qualified for the race after winning at Wincanton last week. It wasn't much of a race, but he couldn't really have done it any easier. That was his first run for 333 days and Paul said after the race he will need another run. My guess is they will target it the Walrus at Haydock, but that is only a guess. I certainly want to see him again before making an opinion on his chances at Cheltenham because like I say he didn't have much to beat at Wincanton. Famous Clermont is highly unlikely to run, but he was beaten 6L on his seasonal return by Take All who had finished 2nd at Taunton in the 1st hunter chase of the season. Fier Jaguen bolted up by 28L and he might be back to his 2023 form, but again I'm not sure he will be aimed at the race despite being as short as 20/1. Finally just to confirm that Iskandar Pecos and Time Leader have been reported by their trainer to be out for the season.

Maidstone v Torquay Ante-post wise I hope Maidstone win this and you know I am not Torquay's biggest fan, but I just can't let them go unbacked for this game at 4/1. The home side have been well backed, but there just shouldn't be as big a price difference between the two sides. Both sides actually come into this game on little wobbles with Maidstone only managing to beat Weymouth in their last 4 games and they have lost to Chesham and Worthing whilst they drew at Chelmsford on Monday night. Torquay have 2 draws and a loss in their last 3 games. They have however had a much higher xG than their opponents in all 3 of those games and they could quite easily have won all 3. To be fair Maidstone have also had a higher xG in their last 3 games as well and even managed 4.34 in the 2-1 defeat against Worthing. I watched the reverse fixture of this match and there wasn't a great deal between the two sides in a 1-1 draw that night. That is likely to be the case again here so at 4/1 I am happy to take a chance that Torquay might edge it. Weston Super Mare v Hemel Hempstead I'm annoyed with myself for not putting up Hemel in their last couple of games after they beat Slough for us 3 games ago. I thought they were going to show massive improvement and they beat Farnborough and Truro in their next 2 games. The new manager had sorted out their defence, but initially they struggled at the other end of the pitch, but after 2 blanks they have scored 8 goals in their last 3 games. Weston have perked up a little having not won in 7 they have won 2 of their last 3 both 3-1. They beat Dorking and Slough in those 2 games, but in-between they did lose 4-1 to Welling. They did however have an xG of 3.01 in that game compared to Welling's 1.09. I don't think there is a great deal between these two sides at the moment and as I have highlighted before we know Hemel have a good side as otherwise they wouldn't have had such a flying start to the season. Leamington v Marine Leamington's home should keep them up this season as they have been exceptional at home losing just 3 times and 2 of those were to Scunthorpe and Chester. They host a Marine side who look like they are going to go straight back down. They have won just 1 of their last 10 games and that was to Warrington who are also in rancid form right now. They drew 1-1 against Farsley on Tuesday night and we know all about their issues at the moment so the fact they couldn't even beat them highlights for me where they are at right now. I think Leamington rate a very solid bet. Barwell v Bedford (Southern Prem Central) Maybe I am missing something here, but when I was looking at the prices last night I thought the bookies had got the odds the wrong way round. Bedford are currently in 2nd place and whilst they did have a couple of heavy defeats in January they came against the bang in form Spalding and on Tuesday night against Telford who went above them in the table. They travel to a Barwell side in the relegation zone and who have lost their last 5 games. They have lost to some of the lesser sides in the division in that run as well. Bedford really ought to be favs and hopefully they can prove that on the pitch. Bromsgrove Sporting v Stamford (Southern Prem Central) The home side continue to be in flying form. It is 1 defeat in 9 now and they have beaten Stratford, Stourbridge, Halesowen and Kettering in that spell, whilst also getting a draw against Spalding. Based on their form they are one of the best sides in the division at the moment and much better than their position of 15th suggests. The fact they are only 6 points clear of the relegation zone highlights the level they were at prior to this run of form. Stamford are doing well this season, but have lost 3 of their last 5 games all to the better teams in the division. Prices from 11am Friday Torquay 1pt @ 4/1 with William Hill, BetVictor and Betfred (take up to 2/1) Hemel Hempstead 1pt @ 3/1 with Paddy Power, Betfair and Betfred (take up to 2/1) Leamington 2pts @ 13/10 with Skybet and Betfred (take up to Evs) Bedford 2pts @ 9/4 with Paddy Power, Betfair and Betfred (take up to 5/4) Bromsgrove Sporting 1pt @ 13/8 with Bet365 (take up to 5/4)

AFC Fylde v Wealdstone The home side are not in good form and the change of manager hasn't really worked at all for me. They have picked up just 4 points in their last 8 league games and the only win was against Ebbsfleet. They have conceded 11 goals in their last 3 games and were well beaten 4-1 by Maidenhead last Saturday. Speaking of a change of manager Wealdstone are being forced into that as their manager has gone to Solihull, but I don't actually mind that too much and for me the most important thing to happen to Wealdstone was the fact Andy Reid is returning on loan from Oldham. He scored 7 goals in 9 league games for them earlier in the season and he could be the difference between them staying up and going down. They have only lost twice in their last 10 games and they have been playing pretty well on the whole. I think they can have the edge over a Fylde side who can't stop conceding. Dagenham & Redbridge v Southend I was close to making Barnet a bet last week at Southend, but with them not always performing away from home I left it and they went and bolted up. I'm more than happy to take them on here though. They are only 1 point above Dagenham in the table and are closer to the relegation zone than the play-offs. I've said it for ages, but they aren't as good as the bookies make them out to be. They are a pretty average side this season and crucially they lost their best forward player as he was on loan from Luton and they took him back so he could go elsewhere. In their last 10 league games they have beaten a Halifax side who were poor on the day, Ebbsfleet and Braintree, but they weren't great in that game which they only won 1-0. Dagenham did surprisingly lose to Braintree in their last home league game, but York and Barnet are the only other 2 sides to beat them at home in the league. In their last league game they were unlucky not to beat Forest Green and I think they can beat Southend. Gateshead v Oldham I am all over Oldham here. Again Gateshead looked nothing special last Friday against Yeovil and we were probably slightly unlucky not to collect. What we certainly had was value because no way should Yeovil have been as big as they were. Now Oldham have not won in 4 games now, but for me that is helping the price here. Aldershot beat them 3-1 last Saturday which on the face of it was poor, but Aldershot only had 3 shots for a total xG of 0.27. The fact they even scored 1 was a bit fortunate, let alone 3. I watched the game against York on Tuesday and whilst York won 2-0, there wasn't too much in it for me. Both sides recorded an xG of around 0.5 and that sums things up. This looks a great game for them to get back to winning ways. I would have them as favourites. Solihull v Halifax The home side were a bit depleted last week against Braintree and they ended up losing 1-0 and they didn't play well. Granted they do have a new manager to impress here, but losing Andy Whing is not a good thing for them in my view. Halifax did us a nice turn in their last game against Gateshead and having had another couple of weeks off isn't going to do them any harm either. Brackley v Spennymoor Brackley had sickness in the camp last week and we probably got a bit lucky in them beating Curzon. They only had 3 outfield subs and had to start the 2nd half with 10 men because someone was being sick at half time. To be fair they did well to push Scunthorpe as close they did on Tuesday, but really Scunthorpe did win more comfortably than the 3-2 score line suggests. Even without the illness they have had a very tough run of fixtures and there is clearly tiredness in the squad. Spennymoor have been struggling to win having drawn 6 of their last 10 games, but they did beat Rushall 7-0 last Saturday. Brackley need a break really not more games so for me Spennymoor offer a spot of value. Darlington v Curzon A slightly surprising defeat for Darlington last week against Leamington, but that is their only defeat in their last 10 and they bounced straight back with a superb win at Kidderminster. As pointed out above Curzon failed to beat a weakened Brackley last week and it continues their poor run of form. The home side have drifted which makes no sense to me as Darlington should be clear favourites. Prices from Friday 11am Wealdstone 1pt @ 17/10 with Bet365 and William Hill (take up to 6/4) Dagenham 2pts @ 17/10 with Bet365 and William Hill Oldham 4pts @ 15/8 with Betfred, Paddy Power and BetVictor (Hills are 2/1 and take up to 5/4) Halifax 1pt @ 5/2 with Skybet, Paddy Power, William Hill, Betfair, BetVictor, Ladbrokes and Coral (take up to 2/1) Spennymoor 1pt @ 23/10 with Paddy Power, Skybet and Betfair (Hills are 5/2 and take up to 2/1 Darlington 2pts @ 29/20 with BetVictor and Skybet (Hills are 8/5 and take up to 6/5)

His trainer has said that he is out for the season which is a massive blow to have him and Iskandar Pecos out.

Just been told that sadly Iskandar Pecos is out for the season which is a shame. Rockys Howya was well backed at Thurles yesterday, but was a non runner. Wilitgoahead still ran though and he won very impressively and the Irish look to have a very strong hand at this stage.

Has run a couple of times this season winning 1st up and then finishing 2nd at Larkhill. Not sure if he is with Hannah or Joe and if he is going to be aimed at this, Aintree or both.

Forest Green v Rochdale It does baffle me slightly how Forest Green have only lost twice so far this season, because I think they should have fewer points than they do. Barnet should have beaten them on Tuesday night and whilst they do look solid defensively, they do seem lacking a bit at the other end at the moment. They are yet to lose at home, but with Rochdale also conceding very few (20 goals in 22 games compared to FGR's 21 in 26) this could just be the game which sees them finally defeated at home. Rochdale haven't played a league game since Boxing Day with just an FA Trophy match since which hopefully will help them as well and they are just too big a price for me. Slough v Eastbourne Eastbourne have been well backed, but I still thought there was a bit of juice in the price. Every time I put them up as a bet they seem to fail to win, but they are 3rd and had a dominant win on Tuesday night over Tonbridge. It is just one loss in 10 for them and its draws which are stopping them from being higher up the table. We took on Slough last week to great effect and they just seem off it at the moment as Hemel ran out easy winners. Curzon Ashton v Brackley How on earth Curzon last to Farsley on Boxing Day given their issues I will never know, but that was 2 surprising defeats on the bounce. They did beat Alfreton in their only league game since then, but it does hint that they might not be capable of staying in title contention. Brackley have only lost twice away from home and one of those was when we were on them to beat Scarborough and they went down to 10 men early doors. They had a superb win on Tuesday night beating Alfreton 4-3 given they had their keeper sent off at the end of the 1st half and their captain had to go in goal. I don't think there is much between these two sides at all and happy to back an away win at the odds. Marlow v Plymouth Parkway Marlow did finally get another win last week, but they are still the worst team in the division and Plymouth have been good on the whole for the last month or so. They also had their keeper sent off on Tuesday night, but still held on for a 3-3 against Bracknell. We are more than owed a win opposing Marlow and Plymouth look a good price to finally get it for us. Hashtag v Dover The home sides only defeat in 10 games was to 2nd place Billericay 2-1 and they followed that up with a 5-1 thrashing of 3rd place Cray Valley and 1-0 win against in form Chatham. They can easy beat top placed Dover based on their recent efforts at they are just simply too big a price. Dover have lost 3 of their last 6 and the wins have only been against some of the lesser sides in the division including woeful Hendon last time. This game is just priced up wrong for me. Hendon v Carshalton I did think about not opposing Hendon this week as they have got a new manager and on Friday they have announced 4 signings so far (nothing to write home about on the face of it), but they have been so bad and conceding so many that I will chance it. Carshalton's away from isn't the best either, but chances are this is a great chance for them to get an away win. Prices from Friday 10am Rochdale 1pt @ 14/5 with Skybet, William Hill, Betfair, Paddy Power and BetVictor (take up to 2/1) Eastbourne 1pt @ 11/8 with Paddy Power, Betfred, Betfair and BetVictor (slightly bigger with Hils and take up to 6/5) Brackley 1pt @ 2/1 with Skybet and BetVictor (Hills are 11/5 and a few smaller bookies are bigger and take up to 7/4) Plymouth Parkway 1pt @ 7/5 with Bet365 (take up to 6/5) Hashtag 1pt @ 23/10 with Paddy Power, Betfair and Betfred (take up to 15/8) Carshalton 1pt @ 11/8 with Paddy Power, Betfair and Betfred (take up to 6/5)

Bit late to start this thread this season, but as I have done for the last few seasons I will keep a thread for all the latest news regarding the Festival Hunter Chase. This is the one race at Cheltenham which gets little attention, but I am here to rectify that again. One of the reasons I have been slow to start the thread this season is because the betting has been slow to appear and has been a bit messy. Things have settled down a little although there are lots of horses priced up. In this first post I have covered the majority of horses that have been priced up by most of the bookies who have a market on the race. Its On The Line - Looked like he was going to be well beaten on his seasonal return at Down Royal on Boxing Day, but in the end stayed on strongly to finish 2nd behind Big Interest. I thought it was a perfectly decent start to the season and its easy to see why he should be at the head of the market at this stage. No doubt he will probably head to Naas again next as per last year. Angels Dawn - Won the Kim Muir 2 years ago off a mark of 131 and that will no doubt catch a lot of peoples attention, but she will have to run to a higher mark than that to win this. She was 3rd in last year's Thyestes off a mark of 138 and then fell in the Kim Muir when challenging at 2 out off a mark of 142. Connections have now decided to go down the point to point and hunter chase route and she won a match at 1/20 first time out. That clearly told us nothing, but she then qualified for this by winning a much more competitive Open over Christmas. She beat Ryehill by 6L who was 4th at Punchestown last season albeit 29L behind Its On The Line. Obviously you can't be certain she is still at the top of her ability, but at least that win gave us a clue to what she is still capable off. She isn't a top class horse on the downgrade who don't win this race anymore and rather a solid handicapper who might not be on the downgrade. We know she handles course and distance and we see time and time again horses run well at Festivals year after year. I wouldn't mind seeing her again though I suspect connections might go straight to Cheltenham rather than go to Naas next month. Sine Nomine - Has gone down the handicap/mares races route this season and so far yet to finish in 2 starts. Connections look likely to carry on down that route though and at this stage she would be an unlikely winner. Winged Leader - Is 7/1 with Bet365 and Unibet, but I'd be amazed if he ran in the race. He is currently on a 15 race winning streak in points and I suspect that will be where he remains. Big Interest - Only had 3 runs having finished 4th on debut last February and then the following month bolted up by 30L. It was some effort to go from that straight to Down Royal on Boxing Day. It was an impressive performance as well as he pretty much made all. Given the trainer decided to take a quiet approach with Ferns Lock (same owner) I just wonder if he will go for the race, but of course things didn't work out with him so maybe he will feel that you may as well go for it. What is certain though is he isn't qualified yet and will either need to win an Open point or finish 1st or 2nd in a hunter chase to do so. Famous Clermont - Last season it was all about Aintree with him only for it to come up testing and he didn't run. He's yet to be seen this season and I've seen nothing to suggest they will go to Cheltenham this year so likely to be Aintree again. Forest Chimes - Mentioning him as Unibet have him priced up, but sadly he has passed away. Ferns Lock - Looked an absolute nut case before the race last year and duly pulled up. He was then beaten at 2/7 over Easter before pulling up at Punchestown. Yet to be seen this season and impossible to back on what we saw last season. Con's Roc - Only had the 4 starts the first of which saw him finish 2nd in December 2022. Was off for 441 days when winning a 3 runner maiden and was then the only one to finish in a winner of one. His seasonal debut was at Limerick over Christmas and I thought he did it very well that day with Rocky's Howya a disappointment in 4th. Clearly open to improvement, but like Big Interest needs to get another qualifying run in. Gracchus De Balme - Ex Joesph O'Brien who looked very good when winning on debut for Hannah Roach at Knightwick in November. That was a Mixed Open so that is one of his qualifying runs in, but he might be more of an Aintree horse. The trainer and Joe O'Shea have split so I'm not certain who is training him now, but I suspect he will be in Joe's name next. Fairly Famous - Was being touted as a Cheltenham horse last season, but things didn't go right for him early on and he pulled up at Wetherby when a short price to beat Sine Nomine. He bounced back well though to beat Premier Magic on Cheltenham hunter chase night and ran perfectly well when 3rd to What A Glance in the Horse & Hound Cup at Stratford. Gave Gina her 500th winner at Horseheath on New Year's Eve when having a fairly simple task at 1/4. Could easily turn out to be the UK's leading contender. Shearer - Not been seen since winning a 3 runner race at Aintree in Jun 23, but has had a leg problem since then. Paul Nicholls stated he would go hunter chasing this season and daughter Olive will ride. Cheltenham wasn't mentioned as a target though. Wilitgoahead - 2nd to Con's Roc at Limerick, but had already had 3 runs in points so hard to think he will reverse the form although he had won all 3. Set to run at Thurles on Sunday. Wonderwall - Only rated 118 over fences when with the Bowens although has won both Irish points in the Autumn in good style. Those wins have qualified him for this, but on his old rules form he wouldn't be an obvious winner at this stage. Fier Jaguen - Was nowhere near as good last season as he was the season before and he's never struck me as being one for this race anyway. What A Glance - Had a superb end to last season winning on Cheltenham Hunter Chase night and then the Horse And Hound Cup at Stratford. Those efforts suggested a tilt at this race was worthwhile, but he was beaten by Allmankind on his seasonal return on New Years Eve at Horseheath. Suspect he will improve for that though and should be a contender. Iskandar Pecos - Another massive improvement from a horse trained by Joe O'Shea (in Hannah Roach's name last season) and won 3 on the bounce including the Intermediate Final on Hutner Chase night at Cheltenham. Was beaten by Forest Chimes in the John Corbet Cup, but I don't think that was his true running and I know his trainer is confident about his chances for this race. Yet to run this season. Eva's Oskar - Was set to run at Ludlow on Thursday before it was abandoned. Could turn out to be a Cheltenham contender if retaining his old ability. Jeux d'Eau - Won the Lady Dudley Cup at Chaddesley Corbett last April, but then disappointed behind What A Glance at Cheltenham. Could be the race came soon enough and he really impressed me when winning a Mens Open at the same venue over Christmas when beating Premier Magic by 15L. He's only 7 and there could well be more to come. Premier Magic - The 2023 winner disappointed last year and whilst he has won well since then he does look past his peak now. Angels Breath - Won the opening hunter chase of the season for the Vaughan's at Taunton, but might be their Aintree runner rather than their Cheltenham runner. Could depend on how Eva's Oskar gets on. Rockys Howya - Looked a really good horse in 2023 in Irish points and backed that up with a superb effort behind Premier Magic when not quite seeing it out. Sadly had to miss the 2024 season and returned by nearly beating Winged Leader in a point. He wasn't so good at Limerick though when his jumping let him down a bit. If he can bounce back from that he would be a huge player for me based on what we saw in 2023. He is set to run at Thurles on Sunday and how he gets on in that will tell us plenty if he is still up to that 2023 level.

Yeovil v Woking Massive improvement from Woking since Neil Ardley came in and whilst this isn't an easy match the value is there for me. Bath v Chelmsford Bath lost at Dorking last weekend, but that was always going to be a tough game and it was 3 wins on the bounce prior to that. Chelmsford lost to Enfield and aren't great away either. Bath just shouldn't be so big. Hemel Hempstead v Slough 1 win in 7 for Slough and whilst Hemel's xG was 0.05 against Chesham, I do think being back at home will allow to be a bit more attacking. They have decent forwards in the side and in the new managers only home so far they beat Weymouth 3-0. Slough have not been great away all season so I will take a chance on Hemel again. Barwell v Bromsgrove Sporting (Southern Premier Central) The teams Bromsgrove have been beating lately are seriously impressive. Barwell aren't in good form and the away side are way too big. prices from 10pm Friday Woking 1pt @ 29/10 with Betfair (Bet365 are 31/10 and take up to 11/5) Bath 1pt @ 2/1 with William Hill and Skybet (take up to 6/4) Hemel Hempstead 1pt @ 23/10 with Paddy Power, Betfair and Betfred (365 are 12/5 and take up to 15/8) Bromsgrove 1pt @ 11/4 with Paddy Power and Betfair (take up to 2/1)

Horsham v Carshalton Horsham have really found their form again having won 4 on the bounce since losing 3-1 to Dartford when we took them on. Last Saturday they put 6 past Potters Bar and then on New Years Day they had a fantastic result when beating top of the table Dover 2-1. I rate them a strong bet to beat a Carshalton side who are always better at home than they are away. They have lost their last 3 games and have even lost their last 2 home games which is unusual for them. Horsham have only lost to Folkestone, Dover and Dartford at home and they have won their other 7 home league games. Gainsborough v York Not much appeals in the Trophy, but I did think Gainsborough were a sporting play. York haven't always been at their best on the road and I suspect it won't be a full 1st team for this game given the league title is the priority. Gainsborough have lost their last 3 league and possibly they are feeling the effects of the FA Cup run, but they have done very well in both cups this season. They will fancy their chances of pulling off another upset and with this not being Yorks priority then that helps their cause. Horsham 3pts @ 5/6 with Betfred and Bet365 (take up to 4/6) Gainsborough 1pt @ 13/2 with Paddy Power, Betfair and Betfred (take up to 4/1)

Bath v Farnborough The new manager for off to a very good start and Bath needed that change of manager for me because they have a very capable squad who were under performing. Farnborough's away form is pretty awful so with those 2 things combined I make Bath a bet. Chesham v Hemel Hempstead We will never know if Hemel would have beaten St Albans on Boxing Day, but we get another opportunity to back them and at a massive price as well. I know Chesham did us on the 4pt bet on Boxing Day, but Slough did out perform them on the xG front and had a great chance to win the game. I'm hoping there will be a few quid to be had supporting Hemel before the bookies catch up on their improvement. Torquay v Truro I'm still not sure about Torquay and they only drew with Weymouth on Boxing Day. Truro continue to with their superb season that they are having and they have it in them to beat their Devon rivals. Cray v Dulwich Cray should have hammered Hendon on Saturday, but thankfully for us they got a late winner despite going down to 10 men. That continued their good run and if the weather forecast wasn't so bad I would have more than a point on. Dulwich's away form is horrid and they managed to lose to a ten man Whitehawk side who had a midfielder in goal on Saturday. They have a long injury list as well at the moment and they could struggle again this afternoon Bath 1pt @ 2/1 with Paddy Power, Betfair, BetVictor and Betfred (Hills are 11/5 and take up to 7/4) Hemel Hempstead 1pt @ 16/5 with Skybet, BetVictor, Betfair, Paddy Power, Betfred and Bet365 (Hills are 17/5 and take up to 2/1) Truro 1pt @ 23/10 with Betfair, Paddy Power, BetVictor and Betfred (Hills are 12/5 and take up to 9/5) Cray 1pt @ 6/5 with William Hill (take up to Evs)

Banbury v St Ives (Southern Prem Central) Banbury have only won once in 10 games and whilst St Ives aren't always the best away from home they are certainly the better team and they should be favs. Biggleswade v Alvechurch (Southern Prem Central) Tim Flowers not doing that bad a job since going to Alvechurch and Biggleswade are bottom. They had to play Kettering on Thursday and that would have been a very tough afternoon for them. I think Alvechurch should be favs as they are with some bookies. Bracknell v Frome (Southern Prem South) I must admit that I don't really know where Frome's upturn in form has come from. At the end of November they lost 2-1 at Marlow and their only win of the season came on the opening day. In their 3 games in December the have won all 3 scoring 10 goals and conceding none. The wins were 2-0 at Hanwell, 3-0 against Swindon Supermarine and then 5-0 against Plymouth Parkway on Thursday who had beaten Gloucester 6-0 last Saturday. Bracknell would be better than those 3, but they have only won one of their last 5 and at a huge price it is worth chancing Frome can continue their flying form. Cray v Hendon (Isthmian Premier) Happy to continue to oppose Hendon especially as Cray have been in good form in the last month. Their loss at Dartford on Thursday was the 1st defeat in 6 games and they took the lead. We know Dartford are on a long unbeaten streak and Cray drew with Billericay and beat Dover in their previous 2 games. In that sort of form they should be beating Hendon. Potters Bar v Horsham (Isthmian Premier) The home side beat Hendon with ease on Thursday and whilst this game will be harder I don't really get why you can get 2/1 and bigger about a home win so I am happy to take another chance on them here. Prices from 10pm Friday St Ives 1pt @ 7/4 with Betfred (take up to 11/8) Alvechurch 1pt @ 13/8 with Betfred (take up to 11/8) Frome 1pt @ 4/1 with Betfred, Bet365 and William Hill (take up to 5/2) Cray 2pts @ 5/4 with Betfred (Amazingly Hills are 6/4 if you can get that and take up to Evs) Potters Bar 1pt @ 21/10 with Betfred (Hills are 11/5 and take up to 6/4)

Gateshead v Hartlepool Both teams come into this game in decent form, but Gateshead have only had to play Woking and Ebbsfleet in their last 2 games so the fact they put 4 past both is hardly a surprise. The only time they have played a decent team recently they lost to Rochdale. Hartlepool's only defeat in 10 was at York and crucially for me they have become very strong defensively. Since that 5-3 loss to York they have only conceded 4 goals and 3 of those came in the game 4-3 win at Solihull where it was on one of the storm hit Saturday's and Solihull's xG was just under 1. The other goal conceded was a penalty on Saturday against Yeovil. I put them up as a value bet against Southend recently and that was a 0-0 draw, but the value is there again and if they can keep Gateshead's strikers quiet then hopefully they can sneak at least 1 in down the other end. Tamworth v Forest Green Forest Green are currently the most over achieving team in the National League which doesn't surprise me as their stats don't always back up the results. They have plenty of quality in the squad which means they have been able to outperform their xG, but chances are they aren't going to be able to keep getting away with it and for me it will be what stops them from winning the title, unless of course they improve it. It does sound like I'm being harsh on a club who have only lost 2 games so far this season, but away from home especially they haven't been getting the results they should have been and that is why I am taking them on here. Tamworth have had another amazing season because I thought they would go down, but they have got themselves into a great position to stay up and a lot of that is to do with how hard they are to beat at home. Hartlepool and Altrincham are the only 2 sides to beat them at home this season and they got a very good 1-1 draw against York in their previous home match. They even managed to win away from home on Saturday and I think they are going to make things very hard for FGR so I am happy to take a chance at a big price that they can edge a victory. Hemel Hempstead v St Albans It has been a miserable season for St Albans as they have won just twice so far and whilst there have been the odd glimmers of promise having got points against Maidstone and Worthing recently, they have also had some shocking results still including a 6-3 loss to Aveley. I put Hemel up on Saturday and they did very well at Torquay only losing to a penalty. That effort backed up the 3-0 win in the managers 1st game and Lee Allinson will be keen to win this having been assistant manager at St Albans with his Dad who is also with him now at Hemel. They look a completely different side to the one that was getting hammered so often under the former manager and they are looking more like the side who was top of the table after 9 games. I think they look a fantastic bet here. Slough v Chesham The best bet on Boxing Day for me comes in this match which kicks-off at 1pm so hopefully they can get us off to a decent start before the 3pm games. It has been 4 pretty hefty defeats on the bounce for Chesham. Part of that is because they can't keep 11 men on the pitch as they have had 3 red cards in their last 3 games and they are also injury-hit at the moment with their captain going off injured in the 1st half against Dorking on Saturday. Overall Slough probably haven't been quite as good as they were earlier in the season, but they have only lost twice at home all season. The first was to Hemel when they were flying and the other was a 3-2 loss to Welling on the same Saturday Hartlepool beat Solihull 4-3. They really should be beating Chesham on Saturday. Stamford v Spalding (Southern Prem Central) I tipped Spalding the other week and they drew 1-1 against Redditch. They won their next 2 games and then got a great point against top of the table Kettering on Saturday. As I mentioned in the preview against Redditch they are better than the league table suggests at the moment. Stamford are in 6th, but they aren't in the best of form. They have won 4 of their last 10, but 2 of those were against the teams in 20th, and 21st. They beat Royston who are 15th and the other win was against St Ives who are 9th, but I would have 14th placed Spalding as a better team than them at the moment. At the price I'd be tempted to have 2 points on, but it will just be a point as it will be hard for most of you to have that much on. Hendon v Potters Bar (Isthmian Premier) Hendon have now lost 4 on the bounce and losing their manager and key players to Hemel has not helped them at all. I am happy to oppose them again with Potters Bar. They were in awful form, but apart from a 4-1 loss to Hashtag, they have been much better in their last 5 games and I think they are capable of beating a weakened Hendon side. Prices from Tuesday 3pm Hartlepool 1pt @ 3/1 with Betfred (take up to 11/5) Tamworth 1pt @ 7/2 with Bet365 (take up to 5/2) Slough 4pts @ 9/10 with Betfred and Skybet (take up to 4/6) Hemel Hempstead 2.5pts @ 7/5 with Bet365, Paddy Power, Betfair and Betfred (take up to 11/10) Spalding 1pt @ 5/2 with Betfred (take up to 7/4) Potters Bar 1pt @ 11/4 with Betfred (take up to 2/1)

Chester v Kings Lynn I am going to go with Kings Lynn again here. They were good against Brackley on Tuesday night and whilst Brackley did have a higher xG having watched the shots I think that has been overrated. I'm still not overly convinced by Chester although of course we are on both teams ante-post so if they do win it is no disaster on that front, but the away side are over priced again. Leamington v Curzon Ashton/Morpeth v Gainsborough Both basically evens so putting them in a double. Curzon just carry on winning and Leamington seem to have lost their way of late. Gainsborough also just carry on winning and should have too much for Morpeth if they remain in that form. Torquay v Hemel Hempstead Going to take a complete flyer here and put up Hemel. There was clear improvement last week under the new manager as they beat Weymouth 3-0. Clearly Torquay are much better than Weymouth and they are yet to lose at home, but I'm still not sure they are quite as good as them being top makes out. That win last week will have given Hemel a massive boost and they might just be capable of causing a bit of a shock here. Obviously Torquay should be odds on favs, but I am happy to risk Hemel at huge odds. Hebburn v Blyth Blyth drew last week when I put them up and I am going to chance them again at a big price. Like I said last week there has been improvement with Blyth and Hebburn are going through a sticky patch at the moment so I will chance Blyth again to pick up a vital win. Canvey Island v Horsham Canvey won for us last week and hopefully they will do again this Saturday. Horsham of course lost to Dartford on Tuesday and they apparently tired badly in the 2nd half. Horsham have only picked up 8 points away from home so happy to take Canvey as they are outsiders for the game. Carshalton v Chatham I know Carshalton have only lost once at home, but Chatham are just relentless at the moment and they have got themselves into 5th place. Their ropey start might still stop them from getting into a title battle, but they are giving themselves a right chance and arguably they are the best team in the division at the moment. Folkestone v Dartford Dartford went 4th with their win on Tuesday and with Folkestone losing 3 on the bounce I am happy to back Dartford again to keep their unbeaten run going with another win. Hastings v Bowers & Pitsea A change of manager has improved Hastings and they got a good point at Billericay last Saturday. Bowers have lost 8 games on the bounce and Hastings will hopefully make it 9 losses on the trot. Prices from 1pm Friday Kings Lynn 1pt @ 27/10 with Bet365 (take up to 2/1) Hemel Hempstead 1pt @ 15/2 with Paddy Power, Betfair and Betfred (take up to 11/2) Curzon/Gainsborough 1pt double @ 3/1 with Betfred and Bet365) Blyth 1pt @ 9/2 with Bet365 (Betfred are 11/2 and take up to 7/2) Canvey Island 1pt @ 7/4 with Betfred (take up to 11/8) Chatham 1pt @ 13/10 with Betfred (take up to 11/10) Dartford 1pt @ 13/10 with Betfred (take up to 11/10 Hastings 2pts @ 11/10 with Betfred (take up to 10/11)

Southend v Hartlepool I was a bit surprised that Hartlepool made 8 changes for the game against Tamworth on Tuesday as I thought the FA Trophy looked a good chance for them to win something. I can only think that because the people in charge aren't really non-league people that they might not care as much about it as I thought they would. Anyway they should be back to full strength here and given they come into this in good form I think they can beat a Southend side I still think are overrated. Darlington v Oxford City Just 2 defeats in the last 10 for Darlington and still only one defeat at home all season which came on the opening day against Kidderminster. Those 2 defeats were at Chorley and Brackley so there is no disgrace in that and they edged a win against Herefordon Tuesday night in a game where there wasn't a huge amount of quality chances. I think it is fair to say that Oxford aren't as bad as they were at the start of the season, but they did lost 3 on the bonce before beating a poor Farsley. They did win in the Trophy last Saturday but were playing a Step 4 side. I'd make the home side slight odds on for this. Blyth Spartans v Prescot Cables Blyth have improved since the change of owner and manager and this does look a winnable game for them. The away sides good run is a while ago now and it is just 1 win in 7 for them. There probably isn't a great deal between these 2 sides and given the price about the home I will take a chance on Blyth finally getting another win they are hinting at being close to. Bognor v Whitehawk It will be typical if Whitehawk lose this for us after being against them a couple of weeks ago, but they clearly got a new manager bounce albeit Folkestone were poor. What is key for me is Bognor are currently bottom and Whitehawk have started to get some former players back who did well for the manager before at the club. In Bognor's last 5 games they have let in 20 goals so I'm happy to take a chance that Whitehawk can continue the improvement against the worst side in the division. Dartford v Dulwich Dartford were the side who beat Bognor last Saturday 4-0 and the only time they have lost in their last 10 was when we opposed them with Wingate. Whilst Dulwich did us on Tuesday night I think it is worth continuing to take them on away from home especially with Dartford being so hard to beat. prices from 9am Friday Hartlepool 1pt @ 21/10 with Betfred and Bet365 (Hills are 9/4 and take up to 7/4) Darlington 2pts @ 21/20 with Betfred, BetVictor and Skybet (Hills are 23/20 and take up to 10/11) Blyth 1pt @ 15/8 with Betfred (take up to 6/4) Whitehawk 1pt @2/1 with Betfred (take up to 6/4) Dartford 1pt @ 11/10 with Bet365 (take up to 4/5)

Amazing how often these storms seem to hit on a Saturday afternoon and the one a couple of weeks ago certainly had an impact on matches so again I will be sticking to minimum stakes. Also wouldn't be a shock if we saw some games getting called off. AFC Fylde v Kidderminster We start in the FA Trophy and there has been a big gamble on Kidderminster who are now around even money for this. I can see why people took the bigger prices, but the value has firmly shifted in the other direction for me. Kidderminster have only lost once in their last 10 games, but that was a poor 4-0 loss at Kings Lynn and they also lost to Guiseley in the FA Cup before that run started. I know Fylde haven't been in the greatest form, but the league below isn't strong and I don't think there is a great deal between these 2 sides which means the home side have to be a value play. Aldershot v Wealdstone Wealdstone were superb against Wycombe last Saturday and probably should have at least taken the match to extra time. They were also much better than Aldershot in the league fixture of this match a month ago. Aldershot have been a bit better since then, but the value is certainly with the away win. Boreham Wood v Eastbourne I know Eastbourne have let us down away from home in the league, but they are overpriced again for this and Boreham Wood struggled to beat a Step 4 side in the previous round which suggests to me the Trophy isn't a big target for them. Braintree v Forest Green FGR's away performances haven't always been the best and I can seem them resting players for this. Braintree have a new manager in place to impress so for me they are a touch of value to win this. Gainsborough v Rushall Olympic I really fancy a home win here. Gainsborough have been superb in the cups this season and since losing to Macclesfield in the league on September 24th they didn't lose again until Harrogate on Friday. They beat Chester in the previous round and Rushall are no Chester. Rushall have lost all their league away matches apart from 1 and they also currently don't have a manager. York v Darlington We saw when York made a few changes to the team in the league last week how bad it went for them as they lost 3-0 to Altrincham. They will surely rest players again for this which will give Darlington a fair chance of causing an upset. Darlington's manager used to manage York as well so he will be especially keen to want to beat them. Kings Lynn v Scarborough Into the league bets now and after losing 4 games on the bounce the home side are back to form wining their last 2 including that 4-0 win over Kidderminster. Scarborough have only won twice in since the start of October and are struggling at the moment. I think the home side should be odds on for this. Dorchester v Hungerford (Southern Premier South) Hungerford have drawn 8 of their last 9 games which is quite staggering. Dorchester have drawn their last 5 games as well so that means the draw is value here. I don't think there is a huge amount between most of the teams in the division this season and with both teams being hard to beat I will take my chances on it finishing in a draw. Prices from 12pm Friday AFC Fylde 1pt @ 11/5 with Paddy Power, William Hill, Betfair and Betfred (365 are 23/10 and take up to 6/4) Wealdstone 1pt @ 16/5 with Skybet and William Hill (take up to 2/1) Eastbourne 1pt @ 16/5 with Paddy Power, Betfair and Betfred (Hills are 7/2 and take up to 2/1) Braintree 1pt @ 13/5 with Skybet, Paddy Power, Betfair and Betfred (take up to 2/1) Gainsborough 1pt @ 2/1 with Paddy Power, William Hill and Betfair (take up to 11/8) Darlington 1pt @ 13/2 with Paddy Power, Betfair and Betfred (Hills are 7/1 and take up to 4/1) Kings Lynn 1pt @ 5/4 with William Hill and Betfred (take up to 10/11) Dorchester v Hungerford draw 1pt @ 13/5 with Betfred (take up to 9/4)

Leyton Orient v Oldham (Saturday) Orient blew a 2 goal lead at Boreham Wood in the previous round and had to rely on a penalty shootout in the end. Oldham as we know are having a very good season and I think they have a decent chance of beating an Orient side who aren't doing well in League 1 this season. Oldham are much better than Boreham Wood and there is a lot of experience in that side so travelling to Orient is going to hold no fears for them. Burton v Tamworth (Sunday) Tamworth's away form in the league is not great, but they make things very hard for teams as they showed in the previous round when they beat Huddersfield. Now if they were at home I'd have more confidence, but then they would be a shorter price and Burton have won just once in League 1 this season. I don't think there is a huge amount in the price, but there is enough to back the upset. Reading v Harborough (Sunday) I want to tip Reading on the -2 handicap because they really should cover that with ease. The problem is Reading play a league game on Tuesday and I'm concerned about what side Reading are going to put out so for the time being I am not going to put it up because I do wonder if we might see a lot of youngsters playing and if that happens then I will leave the game alone. I am keeping a close eye on anything that comes out from Reading and I'm sure there will be a manager interview before Sunday. Solihull v Bromley (Sunday live on ITV) A repeat of last seasons play-off final in the National League which Bromley won via a penalty shootout. Now Solihull haven't always been at that level this season, but they have shown glimmers of it and I'm not sure Bromley are that much different from what they were last season. They have only won 3 times in the League and 2 of those were their opening 2 games of the season. They did beat Rochdale 4-3 in the last round, but they scored in the 91st and 93rd minute to win the game. I'd make Solihull slight favs given they are at home so I am happy to back them at the price they are. Oldham 1pt @ 4/1 with Paddy Power, Betfair and Betfred (17/4 with Ladbrokes and Coral and take up to 7/2) Tamworth 1pt @ 24/5 with William Hill (take up to 4/1) Solihull 1pt @ 2/1 with William Hill (take up to 7/5)

Halifax v Southend Needless to say I am putting up Halifax here who look a big price. I know Southend went down to 10 men on Tuesday, but they only really had 2 shots during the game and they came in the first 13 minutes. They went 4-3-3 formation wise and whilst that lead to an improvement against FGR it didn't lead to much against Woking. I just don't get how they can be favourites for this. Halifax have been their usual solid selves this season and whilst the goal against FGR was a bit fortunate they probably deserved the point as whilst FGR had 16 shots their xG was only 0.78. The FGR goal had recorded the highest xG of 0.17 and all bar one other shot was under 0.10. Halifax have lost just twice in their last 8 games and they were 2-1 defeats to Rochdale and York so nothing wrong that and I would make them favs for this with Southend still being overrated by the bookies. Chorley v Curzon Ashton Chorley currently top the National League North, but they haven't been overly convincing in recent weeks. They lost 3-0 to Marine, were poor in a 2-1 loss to Chester last Saturday and only managed to beat a weak Farsely 1-0 on Tuesday night. Curzon have only lost twice in their last 10 matches and have the best defence in the division conceding just 11 goals. They have only lost once away and whilst Chorley have only lost once at home I think this is the perfect time to be playing them. Scunthorpe v Alfreton We were a bit unlucky not to get Scunthorpe beaten on Tuesday night as Darlington had the best of the chances and some good goalkeeping kept them out. I am happy to keep on opposing them as we are getting some great value in doing so whilst they continue to under perform. I was surprised to see Alfreton lose to South Shields on Tuesday night especially conceding 4 times as they are usually strong at the back. They have actually had better results away from home this season with their only two losses being at Southport on the opening day of the season and then that freak 3-1 defeat to Peterborough when we were on Alfreton and they were well on top before conceding those 3 goals. Alfreton are capable of beating anyone in the division on their day and hopefully they can do that at Scunthorpe. Spennymoor v Buxton It was Buxton who caused Scunthorpe's only loss at home so far this season and we were all them that day and I am putting them up again to win at Spennymoor. Three days after that win they lost their only game in the last 8 to Brackley and they were poor that night, but after the big performance against Scunthorpe I suspect they just weren't quite at it as can happen after teams get big results. Last Saturday they beat Oxford City 2-1 and I think they can edge past Spennymoor. The home side are unbeaten in 5, but they have only won one of those games which just happens to have been against Scunthorpe. They drew against Curzon, but the other 3 games were against teams they ought to have beaten and I'm just not sure they are playing all that well at the moment. Redditch v Spalding Spalding have been on my radar for a little while now as they have been spending a bit of money getting players in with the manager signing a couple of players from his former club Peterborough Sports. I haven't put them up as a bet yet as it hasn't been the right time and I was right to do so as they have lost 3 of their 4 games. It's been 2 weeks since they last played and I think that will help them get more settled as a squad. Redditch lost last Saturday and there has been a fair bit of upheaval with Tim Flowers leaving them at short notice recently and they were well beaten by Royston. Hopefully I have got it right with the time to back Spalding. Dover v Cray Valley The top 2 teams in the division and Cray are overpriced for me. Obviously we are on them ante-post at huge odds so it would be great if they can win for that bet, but they are over priced to win the game as well. They should have won last Saturday and got back to winning ways against Bowers & Pitsea on Tuesday. To be fair Dover had a good win themselves on Tuesday beating Lewes 3-1. They are on a run of 9 games without losing and 8 of those were wins so it obviously wont be easy for Cray, but I'd have them at shorter odds than they are so happy to back them. Whitehawk v Folkestone Folkestone have looked very good recently winning their last 4 and putting in some good performances so odds against quotes look a big price against a Whitehawk side who are bottom of the table and in dreadful form. They have got just 2 points in their last 10 games, conceding 23 times and scoring just once. Folkestone should be odds on and they look a very good bet. Prices from Thursday 2pm Halifax 1pt @ 15/8 with Ladbrokes, Coral and BetVictor (Hills are 2/1 and take up to 11/8) Curzon 1pt @ 21/10 with Bet365 and William Hill (take up to 7/4) Alfreton 1pt @ 15/4 with Skybet, Paddy Power and Betfair (Hills are 19/5 and take up to 5/2) Buxton 1pt @ 2/1 with Bet365, Betfair, Paddy Power, Betfred and William Hill (take up to 6/4) Spalding 1pt @ 11/5 with Bet365 and Betfred (take up to 9/5) Cray Valley 1pt @ 12/5 with Betfred and Bet365 (take up to 2/1) Folkestone 2pts @ 23/20 with Betfred (take up to 8/11)

I watched Hemel v Dorking on Monday night and Dorking really impressed me. I know that Hemel are pretty awful right now, but it was the way that Dorking put them away and they could have had more than 7. The National League South does look wide open, but I've got a feeling that Weston and Truro won't be able to stay up there and I don't like Torquay much either. Dorking are certainly the best team I have watched in either Step 2 division this season and whilst they have played more games than the other teams around I do want them onside. Eastbourne and Boreham Wood are still both in contention and as mentioned above Maidstone aren't far away either from the bets we already have. I think the 8/1 on Dorking with Bet365 is worth taking to add to the portfolio. Dorking 1pt @ 8/1 with Bet365

Now we are sitting pretty in the National League with Barnet, York and Forest Green all covered. I do think one of those 3 teams are likely to win the title, but Oldham are the only other team I think who are capable of doing so. They are still drawing a lot of games which might hinder them from winning the league, but they have lost just twice so it wouldn't take much improvement to see them go close and they do have a good squad. I honestly don't think any other team can win the title other than those 4 clubs so given Oldham can be backed e/w to 3 places at 14/1 it makes sense to get them onside. I don't think Gateshead have the squad to finish in the top 3 and Rochdale don't look good enough and then after that you are getting to the teams hoping to sneak into the play-offs. Given its Oldham I am actually surprised they are still such a big price as they really ought to be in single figures and I had been mulling it over putting something on them for a few weeks now, but I think now is the time to get involved. After this if we aren't on the National League winner then I will be amazed. Oldham 0.5pts e/w @ 14/1 with Bet365 and William Hill (both firms are e/w 1/5 1-2-3 some bookies are only going 1/3 1-2 but I think it is better to go with the 3rd places going for us as well)

No time for previews this week and keeping stakes small given the awful weather across the country today. Prices from 6pm yesterday. Eastleigh v Wealdstone Southend v FGR Buxton v Oxford City Leamington v Scunthorpe AFC Telford v St Ives Harborough v Banbury Cray Valley v Potters Bar Wealdstone 1pt @ 2/1 with Bet365, Skybet, Paddy Power, Betfair, BetVictor, Ladbrokes and Coral (Hills are 21/10 and take up to 7/4) FGR 1pt @ 7/5 with Bet365, Paddy Power, Betfair, BetVictor and Betfred (take up to 11/8) Buxton 1pt @ 21/20 with William Hill and Betfred (take up to 10/11) Leamington 1pt @ 3/1 with Skybet, William Hill and BetVictor (take up to 9/4) AFC Telford 1pt @ 6/5 with Betfred (Hills are huge at 29/20 if you can get on with them and take up to Evs) Banbury 1pt @ 11/5 with Betfred (take up to 15/8) Cray Valley 1pt @ 21/20 with Betfred and Bet365 (take up to 5/6)

Altrincham v Southend The home side have only lost once at home so far this season although they have drawn half of their 8 home games and Southend have drawn half of their 8 away games so the draw is a slight concern, but I do think Altrincham offer value given Southend are favs for this. I took them on last week in a bizarre game of football and got lucky that it was Yeovil who got the goal, but the fact is Southend have been struggling in front of goal. In their last 10 league games they have scored 11 goals, but you have to bare in mind that 4 of those came in one game against Solihull. Altrincham have had little issue scoring goals and have netted in 7 of their last games and the only time they didn't was in their only lost in that spell against Braintree. Also the only time they haven't scored at home was the one loss against Eastleigh. A bit like last week I think Southend are being over-rated by the bookies and Altrincham rate a decent value bet for me. Woking v Boston Yes I am opposing Woking again! Boston were decent last week against Dagenham and probably should have won so whilst it has been a long time since they have won the fact they have drawn their last two games gives me hope they could get that vital win at a Woking side who have not won for 9 games themselves. They have only lost 3 of their 8 games at home, but they have had a bit of good fortune along the way. Boston have performed better on the road and their 3 defeats were at Southend (at the start of the season when they were really struggling), Gateshead and Barnet. They have played 7 away games and got 8 points which is only one fewer than Barnet and they have played 1 more game. I just don't think there is quite as big a difference between the two sides as the betting suggests and will thus Boston offer some value. Blyth Spartans v Matlock Matlock did us a good turn last week coming from behind with 10 men to win 3-2 and I think they can win again here. I will say that Blyth weren't that bad last week in their 2nd game since being taken over so there are signs of improvement, but Matlock are one of the form sides in the division and I think at this stage they certainly should be too strong for their hosts. Marlow v Wimborne I'm not surprised the odds against on the away side has been taken as I'm not sure any side should be odds against to beat Marlow. The slight concern is Wimborne have only won once away from home, but we are due a result opposing Marlow given the other two times they managed to get a 2-2 draw. They are a dreadful side and hopefully Wimborne can prove too strong. Bognor Regis v Carshalton The home side did beat Bowers last week which was annoying for us, but they were then well beaten by Lewes on Tuesday night and Carshalton look a fair price to beat them here. They beat Billericay 4-3 last Saturday which is clearly a very good result and their only 2 defeats in their last 8 leagues games have come against the in form Canvey Island and the very good Wingate & Finchley. For me they should be clear favs for this. Whitehawk v Wingate & Finchley Speaking of Wingate I am backing them as well to continue their superb run of form. They have won 6 of their last 7 league games and the only defeat was at Dulwich when the home side scored a 97th minute winner. Whitehawk are pretty poor this season and have picked up just 2 points in their last 7 games. Odds against looks a big price for me about an away win. Prices from Friday 9am Altrincham 1pt @ 9/5 with Bet365, Paddy Power, Betfair, William Hill and Betfred (take up to 6/4) Boston 1pt @ 11/4 with Paddy Power and Betfair (take up to 11/5) Matlock 2pts @ 11/8 with Betfred (take up to Evs) Wimborne 1pt @ Evs with Betfred and Bet365 (take up to 8/11) Carshalton 1pt @ 6/4 with Betfred (take up to 5/4) Wingate & Finchley 2pts @ 13/10 with Betfred (take up to 5/6)

Was due a day like that when things went my way.

Southend v Yeovil Yeovil have crept up into the play-off places and I'm not entirely surprised as I was impressed with them when they went to Gateshead earlier in the season as they showed they had plenty of ability that day. They have only lost twice in their last 10 league games and they were 1-0 defeats against Solihull and Oldham. This isn't going to be an easy game as Southend have certainly looked better in recent games. They beat Rochdale and then restricted Aldershot to just 1 shot, but couldn't score themselves before beating Tamworth in their last league game 2-0. They were totally dominant that day and did well against Charlton last week in the FA Cup. I just think though that Yeovil are too big a price not to have something on as they are capable of winning this. Scunthorpe v Buxton At one stage I thought I had got Scunthorpe wrong pre-season as they looked very good in the early weeks of the season and better than they did last season, but the wins have dried up in recent weeks and they have only beaten Rushall and Farsley in their last 9 league games. They have only lost 3 of them, but that includes a 3-2 reverse at Spennymoor on Tuesday night. Now apart from a drab 0-0 draw at Chester they have been creating plenty of good chances with some strong xG numbers and they are unbeaten at home, but Buxton are just too big a price not to back. Buxton had a dreadful run of form where they only won twice in 12 games, but they are unbeaten in their last 5 leagues games and have won 4 of them. Oddly their xG figures haven't been so impressive and they haven't always had many shots, but what that means is they are taking advantage of what chances do come there way. They did win 7-1 against Needham as well although that game isn't on WyScout. They have it in them to be the first team to beat Scunthorpe at home this season. Oxford City v Scarborough It was Scarborough who Buxton beat on Tuesday night and they are not in great form in the league. Just 2 wins in their last 10 (one of which was actually against Scunthorpe) and with Oxford improving as I highlighted on Tuesday I think they look a solid bet to win here. The red card did help them on Tuesday night, although Hereford had created very little before that, but what it did do was allow City plenty of the ball. With them finally taking advantage of that possession it stands them in good stead to win their 2nd home league game of the season against a side who are out of form. Hemel Hempstead v Hampton & Richmond To be fair to Hemel they have had a fairly tough run of fixtures, but my god does it feel like a long time ago since they were top and I was feeling pretty good about tipping them up at 66/1 for the league. They will surely win again at some stage, but Hampton have had a couple of good results in their last couple of games including a good 3-1 win over Eastbourne where they took full advantage of a poor 2nd half by the current league leaders. They are worth backing to beat a struggling Hemel side. Welling v Truro This really ought to be an away win. Welling have lost 7 of their last 9 league games and the two wins in that spell were 1-0 victories over St Albans and Enfield. They were shocking in defence and in goal in the two 4-0 and 4-1 losses to Chippenham and Eastbourne in their last 2 league games. Truro are unbeaten in their last 7 league games and are looking good and they should be able to take advantage of a Welling side who just look really low in confidence especially at the back. Matlock v Bamber Bridge Matlock have lost their last 2, but they more than held their own against Macclesfield and Stockton only losing by a single goal against 2 of the best sides in the division. They now host a Bamber Bridge side who have lost 3 of their last 4 games and Matlock's current squad is much better than their league position suggests so they can win this. Bowers & Pitsea v Bognor Regis Bognor have lost 5 games on the bounce and whilst the first 2 were against the current top 2 sides the other 3 certainly weren't. They have only picked up 1 point away from home so far this season and they go to a Bowers side who aren't in bad form at all having won 4 of their last 6 league games. They look a good price to beat the side currently bottom of the table. Cray Valley v Horsham Whilst Hemel aren't looking so good for our 66/1 ante-post play, Cray Valley are looking much better for the 66/1 ante-post bet. They are currently in 3rd and have lost just 2 of their last 10 league games and have won 4 of their 6 home league games. Now Horsham are a good side themselves and having only played 10 league games they are in a little bit of a false position in the table, but they have only won once on their travels in the league so far and I'm surprised they are favourites for this. Cray look good value to me. Yeovil 1pt @ 16/5 with Skybet, Paddy Power, William Hill, Betfair and BetVictor (10/3 with 365 and take up to 5/2) Buxton 1pt @ 9/2 with BetVictor and Betfred (5/1 with Hills and take up to 3/1) Oxford City 1pt @ 8/5 with William Hill, Skybet, Paddy Power, Betfair and Betfred (take up to 5/4) Hampton & Richmond 1pt @ 9/5 with Skybet, Paddy Power, Betfair and Bet365 (19/10 with Hills and take up to 6/4) Truro 3pts @ 19/20 with Bet365, BetVictor and Betfred (take up to 8/11) Matlock 1pt @ 6/5 with Betfred and Bet365 (take up to Evs) Bowers & Pitsea 1pt @ 7/4 with Betfred (take up 11/8) Cray Valley 1pt @ 15/8 with Bet365 and Betfred (take up to 6/4)