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Darran

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Everything posted by Darran

  1. I believe there will be up to 10 races and pretty sure the limit of 12 horse races is still happening. The other factor is the stabling of horses as a meeting can only have as many runners as stables.
  2. Given the government are so keen to get things going again ASAP I would be surprised if they don’t give the go ahead tomorrow when they are set to announce if we can go to the next stage or not
  3. 72 hour decs until further notice. This is what they do for most meetings in Australia.
  4. Just to add that sandown might be down as Ladbrokes Park in places as that’s the official title. I know it is on racing.com for example.
  5. Not the best of days with the bets at Randwick and Flemington on Saturday, but we move on to Sandown on Sunday and 3 jumps races including the Australian Hurdle and Australian Steeplechase. The track is already a Heavy9 and although just because it was a wet day at Flemington it doesn't mean it was raining at Sandown, I would be surprised if they didn't get some rain on Saturday and I am fully expecting it to be very hard work. Race 1 (3.05am) A BM120 Hurdle to get the card underway and its an interesting little race. I put up So Belafonte when he won at the Bool last time and it was a hell of an effort. He was taken on for the lead by the horse who ended up finishing last and they went pretty quick. Every time he was challenged late on though he just kept finding. It was a really gutsy effort although this is a better race so I will pass him over. I put up Diamond Star Halo to win the Champion Novice Hurdle at the Bool and he made a mess of the last which might well have cost him victory with Riding High just getting up to score. Flying Agent was back in 3rd and I think he can reverse the form. Tomorrow they are racing off level weights, whereas Flying Agent had to carry 1kg more last time. Also I am not sure Diamond Star Halo wants testing ground and his jumping is always going to be a concern. In heavy ground there is going to be more pressure on his jumping as he gets tired. Flying Agent has won 3 times in heavy ground, including his maiden hurdle at Ballarat and there should be more to come from him given it was his first hurdle start of the prep. He looks the best value in the contest. Michelin is set to go off favourite here and he did beat Flying Agent twice last season. The 2nd time they were 1st and 2nd at Pakenham and there was just a length between them off level weights. Michelin now has to give him 1.5kg. Michelin was impressive at Sale a couple of weeks ago beating a decent horse in Scholarly impressively. He has won on heavy ground so that shouldn't be an issue and I think he has a really good chance. The problem for me is the price and its tight enough for me at 11/10 so for me I will go with Flying Agent at a much bigger price as he should be a fair bit shorter for me. Flying Agent @ 7/1 with Bet365 and Betfred Race 2 (3.45am) I have to be against Runaway here as he looks very short in the betting. He was beaten by Gobstopper in the Galleywood last time and I am not sure he wants the step up to 3900m, especially on heavy ground. He has never run on heavy ground before so it will be a very tough test stepping up to 3900m for the first time. He ran at Flemington last week which seemed an odd move and the ride he got was equally bizarre. He wasn't able to front run and then made a mid race move to share the running only to fade badly late on and end up finishing 9th. He is a decent horse, but I just don't see what makes him an 11/10 shot for this. As well as Gobstopper, Ancient King, Robbie's Star, Woodsman and Mystic Prince also ran in the Galleywood. Mystic Prince doesn't seem to have an obvious chance and although Woodsman was found to be lame I thought it was a disappointing effort. He ran on the flat last weekend and it was a fair effort so he was clearly over the lameness, but he still has a bit to find for me. Gobstopper has won 4 of his 7 hurdles starts now and will no doubt run his race again, but I think there is scope opposing him with the horses who finished 3rd and 4th. I put up Ancient King e/w in the Galleywood and he kept going to finish 3rd. He was closing on the front 2 at the line and we know he handles the track and conditions as he won the Grand National Hurdle over course and distance in 2017 on a Heavy 9 track. He only has to give Gobstopper 0.5kg here having had to give him 1kg last time and over this further trip I think Ancient King can hold the advantage. I think Robbie's Star has a superb chance as well. 9 of his 10 wins have come on a heavy track and he will thrive under these conditions. He's never been over this far before, but he looks like he will stay as he was doing all his best work late in the Galleywood. He was waited with out the back and he probably made his move to be able to win the race. He ran at Cranbourne just over a week ago to keep him ticking over and wasn't asked to do a great deal there. I like both their chances and will be splitting my stakes as I they both look over priced. The only one I haven't mentioned is Riding High who is the up and comer having won both his 2 hurdles starts to date. The way he races you would think he would stay, but the ground has to be a concern as I am not sure he wants it as testing as it will be. Ancient King @ 13/2 with Betfred Robbie's Star @ 7/1 with Bet365 Race 3 (4.25am) The Australian Steeplechase isn't an overly strong race in my view and I am going to stick with the favourite here Slowpoke Rodriguez. He was sent off favourite for the Brierley last time, but was never really put into the race until it was too late and he ended up coming 4th. That was his first jumps race since last August so he should come on for that. What is really interesting is that Lee Horner rides him and he is married to Amy McDonald who trains Shamal. You would have thought if they fancied Shamal he would have ridden that one. Slowpoke Rodriguez likes heavy ground and his best run came in the Crisp Chase here again last Auguest when he was just beaten by Wells and had Bit Of A Lad behind in 3rd. If he comes on from that first steeple run I think he goes close. Shamal is having his first start for McDonald having been trained in New Zealand. He has some strong form over there and if fit he would be a player here. He fell in the Grand National Chase at Ballarat before the race had got going so we don't know how he would have got on. It wouldn't surprise me if he had the quality to win, but I can't help think that he will need the run. Georgethefifth is the other one I think has a chance. He is another ex New Zealand horse and he bolted up in the BM120 chase at the Bool. I took him on there as he was struggling to win his races and in the end I don't think that race was particular strong. The other issue here is he is a fair way out of the handicap. Slowpoke Rodriguez is rated 129 and carries 66kg whilst Georgethefifth also has to carry 66kg yet is rated 116. There could be more to come now he has won again and he will handle the ground. Lucques was in front of Slowpoke Rodriquez in the Brierly when he was 2nd. He wouldn't be totally out of it, but his Sandown record isn't great. Bit Of A Lad was a well beaten 4th in the Grand Annual and at his best he would have claims, but he seems like a horse who is solid, but struggles to win at this sort of level. To be fair like I say this isn't a strong heat so he might be up to it. At the end of the day though I think there is more to come from Slowpoke Rodriguez and we will see a better performance than we did last time. Slowpoke Rodriguez @ 13/8 with Betfred
  6. Greek Hero runs at Randwick and McEvoy has been booked for the ride.
  7. Good to see a Twitter follower was on the ball clearly there are only 10 previews there as I missed one of the Randwick previews out so here it is. Randwick R5 (4.55am) Godolphin's Coruscate is the pick for me in this contest. He has had his last 3 races in Victoria winning the first of them at Bendigo and then finishing 3rd and 2nd at Caulfield. The last of those came a couple of weeks ago and I think both of those races look good from a form perspective. The horse he beat at Bendigo has done well since as well. He has finished 2nd in both starts on heavy ground including at Caulfield last time. The market has it as a bit of a match between him and Southern Lad and he is the biggest danger. He ran well at Wagga on his first start this prep, but his 2nd up record isn't as good as his first up record and that is a big concern. Ground wont be an issue and he will go close, but I favour Coruscate at the prices. Coruscate @ 11/5 with Betfred
  8. Flemington and Randwick are the two meetings of focus this Saturday with selections in 6 races from Flemington and 5 from Randwick. Both venues look set to have testing ground as there has been plenty of rain around. Flemington R1 (2.40am) Ex UK horse Starcaster was well fancied at Sandown last time after his debut win in Australia at Geelong on his previous start. He never got involved that day though and the jockey reported he didn't handle the ground. The concern has to be that it is likely to be heavy ground again tomorrow and for that reason I am happy to oppose him. There are two I like here though and I will be splitting stakes on both of them. Yonkers was a horse I put up last time and he just won at Randwick 3 weeks ago. He did have the option of staying in Sydney so it is interesting that Waller is sending him to Melbourne. He's never been over this far, but he does look like he will stay and he won on heavy ground earlier in the year at Canterbury. He looks to have a cracking chance in this. Black Caviar's trainer Peter Moody started training again earlier this month after giving up a few years back and Shepard was his first horse back when he won at Ballarat. This is a step up in grade, but looks a very progressive horse. The only time he has finished out of the frame in 7 starts was 1st up at Sandown in February. That win last time can on a Heavy 8 so we know he handles a wet track. The time before he was 2nd to Starcaster, but I do think he can reverse the form especially with track conditions being the way they are, Yonkers @ 3/1 with everyone Sheppard @ 3/1 with William Hill Flemington R4 (4.30am) Alfa Oro is stepping up to a Saturday Metro race for the first time, but he certainly deserves a chance giving how progressive he has looked this prep. He ran a couple of times as a 2yo in 2018, but he wasn't seen again until last month. It was a good reappearance on a heavy track at Pakenham when he finished 2nd. The last twice he has been very impressive in his victories again both at Pakenham. All 3 wins have been over 1200m, but the 1000m trip shouldn't be an issue and he has a lovely draw as it is highly likely you want to be drawn high down the straight track. Alfa Oro @ 5/4 with Bet365 Flemington R6 (5.45am) Milwaukee would have been the pick here if we had been looking at a quicker surface, but he has been unplaced on all 3 starts on a heavy track which is a big concern. He does have a cracking record down the straight here though and over this trip here he has only been out of the frame once in 7 starts for 3 wins. He does have a good draw. The two I like though are Miss Iano and Haunted. The former has a good drwaw in 14 and is good on a heavy track as well having won twice and finished 2nd once in 5 starts. She was an eye-catcher last time at Warrnambool finishing fast to come 4th in a Listed Race. She was a very good 3rd over 1100m here during the Melbourne Cup Carnival and 1200m is her trip as all but 2 of her 8 wins have come over this distance. I think she has a great chance and well no doubt be flying late. Haunted is the other one I like. He was made plenty of use of over 1400m at Morphettville last month and he didn't see the trip out. His run over 100m here in February was a good one and then at Mornington he was way too far back and wasn't ever in a winning position, but he finished well. He has won on a heavy track before so there are no issues on that front although I am slightly concerned about his draw in 3. Miss Iano e/w @ 7/1 with William Hill & Betfred Haunted @ 5/1 with Bet365 Flemington R7 (6.25am) Interesting race this. Ex Irish horse Masaff ran well on his first start for Chris Waller although a heavy track is an unknown as he didn't even run on it in Ireland. It was a very good debut though over a trip too short and I suspect the 1800m might be on the short side as well, but the long straight at Flemington will help. Another Waller runner Nobu was a horse I put up last time Caulfield and I am certain he is ready to win. He ran well given the ground at Caulfield as he does look better on better ground, but he stayed on well from the back to finish 3rd to Shot Of Irish. I just think he will struggle to win a race on heavy ground though. Aussie Nugget was tempting as he was 2nd in the same race Nobu was 3rd in and he came from a long way back as well. That was a solid first run in testing ground. The one I have come down on though is Duke Of Plumpton. I put him up at Sandown when he was 2nd to Shot Of Irish, but he couldn't run him down, just as Aussie Nugget and Nobu couldn't do at Caulfield. This horse loves a wet track as he showed in New Zealand and I think there is more to come from him. He was poor on his only start over this trip so far, but that came at the end of his prep in New Zealand and there is every chance he was over the top by then. He certainly looks like he should have no issues about the 1800m trip. Duke Of Plumpton @ 11/4 with everyone Flemington R8 (7.05am) A good race this and Shot Of Irish certainly deserves his chance in an open handicap after his two wins as mentioned above. He loves a wet track and his win at Caulfield was his 5th win from 7 starts on a heavy track. He is clearly going to be a big player here, but I am going to take him on. Last seasons German Derby 2nd Django Freeman makes his Australian debut and it will be interesting to see how he gets on, but I suspect he might need it as well as a mile being on the sharp side. I am going to back two here though. Just like Shot Of Irish, So Si Bon has won his last two races. He had become very hard to win with, but dropping down in class he has managed to find his form again. He was especially impressive at Caulfield last time on a Heavy 8 when he bolted up and it could have been by further. If he is in the same form he must surely go very close. The other one I like is Pacodali who is a G3 winning having won the Eclipse at Sandown in November. I thought he ran a big race at the same venue on his return to action earlier in the month. That came over 1400m and he's never won over that short a trip. He recorded some good final splits that day and I do like the race from a form perspective. Up in trip 2nd up (he has good 2nd up stats) and he should be capable of going well. So Si Bon @ 15/4 with Betfair Pacodali e/w @ 11/1 with Betfred (4 places as most are as there are set to be 17 runners, but just a reminder in Australia they only ever pay 3 places so Bet365 would just be 3 places) Flemington R9 (7.38am) Hilo and The Astrologist stand out for me in the finale. Hilo has been very consistent up in Sydney this prep winning 1 and then finishing 3rd on his other 3 starts. One of those 3rds was on heavy ground and the form around him in those contests is strong. The front 3 pulled clear of the rest 3 weeks ago at Randwick as well. No reason why he shouldn't run well here and his high draw is another plus. Another with a good draw is The Astrologist and he looks to have a very good chance. He was off for nearly a year before he returned 2 weeks ago at Caulfield when he flew home to finish 3rd over 100m in heavy ground. Up in trip here on ground he clearly enjoys and I think he looks capable of going very close. Hilo @ 15/4 with Betfair The Astrologist @ 4/1 with William Hill Randwick R1 (2.30am) Chris Waller is pretty keen on Overlord's chances here and so am I. He could do with jumping better than he did here a couple of weeks ago and he was still in last with 400m to go. He flew though and recorded the 2nd best last 200m of the day. He finished his race off well on debut also so clearly going up to 1300m looks perfect for him. His breeding suggests he should relish a wet track and he should be able to reverse form with Peltzer at these weights. Overlord @ 9/4 with William Hill Randwick R4 (4.15am) New Arrangement is an ex James Tate runner who has done well on his last two starts to finish 3rd both times. He didn't get the best of runs on either occasion and does look like he is ready to win. The issue for me though is the ground, because I am not sure he wants it testing. His wins in the UK were on firm at Bath and on the AW. He's had one start on a heavy track and was unplaced. If he handles it though it is hard not to see him going close. My selection though is Loveseat who didn't have the race run to suit last. She only had 1 behind her at the 400m marker and then didn't get a clear run late on. That was over 1800m and given she has won over 2400m going up to 2000m on her 4th run of the prep should be ideal. Hopefully she will get a stronger pace to aim at here to help her as well. She has won on a heavy track so we know that wont be an issue. Loveseat @ 9/2 with Betfair Randwick R6 (5.30am) Miss Einstein was so unlucky when I put her up a couple of weeks ago and she has to be backed again to win this. She was an eyecatcher 1st up at Rosehill when finishing well to get 5th and then at Randwick she had no luck at all. I reckon she would have got up when she got checked 50m from home. It was still a top effort and the extra 100m wont do any harm. She won on a Heavy 10 at Wawick Farm 3rd up last prep and although it probably wont be quite a Heavy 10 it will still be similar conditions 3rd up this time around. Declan Carroll trained Greek Hero in the UK and he won 3 times over here including at Musselburgh off 78 on his final start in October. He won at Kembla Grange on his first start in Australia a couple of weeks and was well backed to do so has well. Plenty went wrong in that race as well given he over raced and had no cover. He showed guts to see it out as well which was good to see. Given he handled soft well over here a heavy track in Australia shouldn't be an issue. He is entered on Sunday at Nowra as well so we will have to wait until tonight to see if he is taken out of this all not, but he is worth a saver e/w if he turns up in this. Miss Einstein @ 11/5 with Bet365 Greek Hero e/w @ 17/2 with Unibet Randwick R8 (6.50am) I put up Dealmaker as a cracking e/w bet a couple of weeks ago and he flew home to record the quickest 200m of the meeting to just be denied. That was frustrating and the fact he has only won twice in 24 starts is a concern given he has finished 2nd 6 times and 3rd 6 times, but I have to be with him again here. He is clearly in fantastic form and he handles a heavy track as well so hopefully he can get that 3rd win he deserves. He's not quite an e/w price here, but I still think there is enough juice in it to back him. Dealmaker @ 9/2 with Betfair
  9. Surprised you think John is a guesser given he worked out there for the past 3/4 years I would imagine he knows the racing very well.
  10. Ladbrokes took over Betdaq a few years ago so that is why the prices will be the same.
  11. 5/11 winners and behemoth who had no chance of winning having been so far back managed to get 4th. Super Titus at 14/1 though the obvious highlight!
  12. Duke Of Plumpton the only non-runner out of my picks and Masked Crusader has come out of @BillyHills picks
  13. I think this is different though. Don't forget we weren't far from the start of the flat season and horses would have been working towards targets in March/April and no doubt all trainers will have acted differently to the situation. There was also hope at one stage it could have been May 1st. Horses could well go over the top having not been able to run when they were close to being ready to. I'm not sure normal rules will apply. Just take Pinatublo as an example. He would have been getting tuned to the minute for May 2nd and that has been forced to change without knowing until this week when the Guineas will be. Not saying he wont win, but it adds a massive unknown factor to things.
  14. I think betting on uk and Irish racing will be a nightmare to start with. They have both been working to unknown start dates until now so trainers will have been training them differently. Paddock watchers would probably have done best but obviously they won’t be allowed in! Think we are set to find out about international horses shortly but the impression was they would be allowed which surprised me. As for building a fence around Newmarket I would be surprised if they did that. They have to do it at Epsom because they have to close off the middle as it’s part of the Downs so anyone can walk there. A lot harder to get to the heath at Newmarket
  15. Instead of watching Fontwell's hunter chase night on Thursday I was studying the form for Flemington, Rosehill and Morphettville! Flemington is my main focus with bets in 5 races although the big race of the day is at Morphettville with the Group 1 Goodwood stakes for the sprinters. I have 3 bets there and 3 bets from Rosehill also. Flemington R3 (3.55am) November Dreaming is the first selection in this BM78. She is dropping back in class having run in a G2 at Morphettivlle earlier in the month. She wasn't helped by the slow pace in that race and found herself further back than the jockey had planned on being. She looked a good horse when winning at Pakenham the time before and back down in class with Craig Williams back on board she looks to have a cracking chance. The other one I like is Merited who does seem to be over priced. She has only had 3 starts, but she won her 1st two on her 1st prep at the back end of last year. She returned at Sandown a couple of weeks ago when running well over 1400m in testing ground before tiring late on when fitness told. Florent was in front of her that day, but on her 2nd win she had beaten the same horse. She is going to strip fitter here and on better ground this extra 200m shouldn't be an issue. November Dreaming @ 11/4 with William Hill, Betfair, BetVictor & Betfred Merited e/w @ 16/1 with BetVictor Flemington R4 (4.30am) I put up Sikorsky last week, but he was a non-runner because of the ground. It will be better here and obviously I still like his chances. His connections have been patient waiting for the rain to stop and hopefully that can pay off here. He looks ready to win 3rd up this prep having clocked the fastest 200m last time at Caulfield when he flew home to finish 2nd. He looks ready to win on the back of that effort going up to 1600m. I've got to stick Duke Of Plumpton in as well. I am slightly concerned the going might not be soft enough although I suspect if it was too quick they would take him out. He was 2nd to Shot Of Irish when I put him up at Sandown a couple of weeks ago and that one backed up by winning at Caulfield last Saturday. If there is enough cut in the ground then he will surely go close with the form looking good. Sikorsky @ 100/30 with William Hill, BetVictor and Betfred Duke Of Plumpton @ 19/5 with Bet365 Flemington R6 (5.10am) The big race on the card is The Andrew Ramsden and the horse who wins this gets a ballot exemption to this year's Melbourne Cup. There is every chance we could see a genuine Cup contender as well in the shape of King Of Leogrance who has really improved this year. First off he finished 2nd at Caulfield over 1800m before stepping up to 2600m here and winning a Listed Race. He then went to Morpettville for the G2 Adelaide Cup and he bolted up looking really impressive in the process. Unlike the Melbourne Cup this isn't a handicap so he is well weighted in this. He hasn't run for 2 months, but we saw last week and in the Melbourne Cup last year that his trainer can prep them more like an European horse anyway. His owner has already been public about how he wants the horse to be ridden so expect him to be 3 wide and away from the rails if Damien follows instructions. Away from him it looks quite open, but I am going to have a small e/w interest on Norway. I put him up at Randwick about a month ago and he ran OK over a trip short of his best. He was much better at Sandown a couple of weeks ago on a heavy track when 3rd. That was over 2100m and going up to 2800m on a quicker surface should be ideal for him. He looks over priced. King Of Leogrance @ 6/4 with William Hill & Betfred Norway e/w @ 25/1 with BetVictor & Betfred Flemington R7 (6.30am) Rupture is the obvious one in this as he was so impressive in landing the hat-trick over 1700m here last time. Now he was the only leader to win all day so it is possible he defied a track bias, but it was also a slowly run race so that would have suited him. He might win again, but I see little juice in his price and I am going to back Super Titus e/w instead. He used to be trained in the UK when he was known as Titus and he was a useful horse for Declan Carroll having won a good handicap at the Ebor meeting in 2018 and then following that up with a 4th off 103 in the Mallard at Doncaster. He has had 10 starts already in Australia and has only actually won over 1700m despite the fact you would think he would need further than that based on his form in the UK. He's run in some good races in Australia and I think he is in a race he can win now. He flew home on his last two starts at Caulfield and then behind Rupture last time finishing 3rd on both occasions. Up to 2000m should be ideal for him and I think he has a chance of reversing form with Rupture. Keep an eye on Schabau who is an ex-German horse. He won his last two starts in Germany before landing a hat-trick in early 2019 on his first 3 starts in Australia. He looks a really promising horse and a possible Melbourne Cup contender, but he has been off with a tendon injury so I think he will need this. His trainer has suggested he would be about 85% fit. If that turns out to be enough then he really would be a big contender for the Cup. I also mentioned Dadoozdart when he made his Australian debut in the same race that Rupture won. He ran OK over a trip too short for him. Clearly the step-up in trip will help and he should strip fitter, but I think he will need softer ground and a bit further so it is another watching brief with him. Super Titus e/w @ 14/1 with BetVictor & Betfred Flemington R8 (7.10am) Achernar Star has to be the main pick in this Handicap. He did well enough 1st up over 1100m at Caulfield, but showed he had come on plenty for that when 2nd to the very promising Buffalo River at Sandown a couple of weeks ago. The 3rd was a horse called Harbour Views who I will be tipping up at Morphettville a bit further down. That was his first start on a heavy track and this better going will help. He was 4th in the G1 Railway Stakes at Ascot in November over 1600m, but 1400m is no issue for him and I am keen on his chances here. I am going to have a saver on Sirius Suspect who has been showing good form this year. He won 3 starts back over 1200m here in February before finishing a very good 2nd over course and distance in March. He then went back to 1200m at Caulfield last month and finished 5th in a quickly run race where he was keen. Back up to this trip will be ideal and he has a very good record at Flemington only finishing out of the frame twice. Achernar Star @ 100/30 with Betfair Sirius Suspect @ 13/2 with Bet365 Rosehill R5 (4.55am) I was going to put Adelong up last week, but she was a non-runner before I got chance to write the preview. She has only had 5 starts having won her first 3 and then finishing 2nd the last twice. Her first start of this prep was at Canterbury where she finished a neck 2nd against a race fit rival. She should come on for that and if she does she has a cracking chance. One of the main dangers is Lashes who beat Adelong in January, but Adelong is 6kg better off her so should be capable of reversing form. What I will add though is Lashes is usually pretty good 1st up and has trialled well. L'Cosmo wouldn't be out of this either as she was 2nd to Fituese last time (more on her later), but she has finished 2nd in 8 of her 12 starts which is obviously a big concern. Adelong @ 11/8 with William Hill, BetVictor & Betfred Rosehill R6 (5.35am) Graff is likely to go off favourite here and this is probably his easiest ask in a while. He ran well enough 1st up when 4th over course and distance and should go well. I am going to take him on though with a couple. Ranier really impressed me at Randwick last month and the 2nd has won since and ran well again in a good race on Friday. The concern would be the drop to 1300m, but hopefully Hugh will be able to sit closer to the pace than he did the last day where he also didn't get the clearest of runs. He will be finishing fast so hopefully we can have another Hugh special. The 3yos have been doing well in Sydney when they have been going into all aged company and Eleven Eleven could well be capable of winning. He's had no luck with the draw both starts this prep and had the quickest 600m-400m and 400m-200m splits in a G2 at Randwick 1st up. Things didn't really pan out here last time, but 1300m looks the ideal trip for him at the moment. He was a good 2nd in the Magic Millions Guineas at the Gold Coast in January and that run would see him go close in this now he finally has a good draw (he was even drawn 15/15 that day). Ranier @ 5/1 with everyone Eleven Eleven @ 100/30 with William Hill, BetVictor, Betfair & Betfred Rosehill R7 (6.15am) I mentioned Fituese above and she was hugely impressive in the race she won 1st up a couple of weeks. That was only a BM72 and she is up to Listed class here, but she won in a fast time and she bolted up. She looks a group horse in the making based on that effort and she can make her record 5 from 7 here. The only slight concern is she did bomb out 2nd up during her 1st prep, but as long as she doesn't do that here she ought to win. Wayupinthesky looks the main danger as she's run 2nd twice this prep in good races including behind the flying Rubisaki last time. She does have to give a lot of weight away though to the selection. Fituese @ 5/4 with William Hill, Betfred, Betfair & BetVictor Morphettville R6 (6.05am) Girl Tuesday looks a decent bet in this Listed contest for Chris Waller. She was pretty unlucky at Rosehill last time as she just couldn't get a run at all and was still beaten only 2L She steps up in trip by 500m, but that shouldn't be an issue, indeed it should help her running style and she is back against her own sex. I am also going to have a small e/w bet on Lamu who is an ex-French runner who I put up last time when she was 3rd at Flemington only just beaten having not had the clearest of runs. I think the step up in trip will suit and she can get the better of Naivasha who won that contest on her 3rd Australian start. A quick mention for Fidelia who was also entered at Flemington where I was going to tip her up. I am not going to back her here, but she ran really well in a G2 over 1600m a couple of weeks ago. The step up to this trip looks like it will suit and she wouldn't be out of this. Girl Tuesday @ 9/4 with Bet365 Lamu e/w @ 17/2 with BetVictor Morphettville R7 (6.45am) Strictly speaking on ratings Harbour Views has a bit to find on ratings with some of these, but I think he can prove up to the task. He has won 5 of his 7 starts and has finished 2nd and 3rd in the other two. As I mentioned earlier he was 3rd behind Buffalo River and Sandown a couple of weeks ago and I think that was a strong piece of form. He is 2/2 2nd up and that was his first run on a heavy track so coming onto better ground should be ideal for him. He goes from 1400m to 1600m here which is another tick in the box. Seabrook looks the main danger having finished 2nd in a Group 2 over course and distance last time. Harbour Views @ 13/8 with William Hill & Betfred Morphettville (R8 7.25am) The big race of the day in Australia is The Goodwood and it looks a decent renewal as well. Gytrash is the favourite and it is easy to see why given he has plenty of top class including winning the G1 Lightning Stakes at Flemington in February. He was then 3rd in the Newmarket and 2nd in the William Reid. He was then given a month's break and was an easy winner in front of Sunlight in a G3 here last month. He clearly has a big chance, but I am going to look elsewhere at bigger odds. Santa Ana Lane was a little disappointing last time, but I don't think he is at her best over 1400m and it wasn't a bad effort Prior to that he was the one who chased Nature Strip home in the T J Smith. For me that is the best recent form in the race and it came on a heavy track which isn't ideal for him. He looks over priced for me. The other one I like is last year's 2nd Behemoth. This would have been the target for him so we know he will have been trained to peak for this. He was 2nd to Jungle Edge in a G3 over 1100m here a couple of weeks ago. Jungle Edge loves a wet track so I do think on this quicker surface he can reverse the form with that run under his belt as well. He looks over priced at double figure odds. Sunlight ran no sort of race in the Sangster last time and connections had no excuse. If she can bounce back she is a big player. Trekking looks ready to peak here and would be another danger, Santa Ana Lane @ 13/2 with Bet365 Behemoth @ 11/1 with William Hill (4 places)
  16. I think divisions will be allowed so we will see more races.
  17. That’s because there will have been a knock on effect from the other meetings. They always jump a practice flight in France whatever the level of the race.
  18. Most French races are late off. They had a trotting meeting as well today and they wouldn’t clash them so that could have been a reason why they were late off
  19. More Aussie jump racing on Tuesday morning as we have 3 races at the start of the Sale card. Race 1 (2.35am) A maiden hurdle to kick off the card and a few of this ran in the 3 maiden hurdles last week. The odds on favourite is a horse who was a non-runner last week Longclaw. I didn't really fancy him last week, but this race is weaker and he didn't run too badly on the level last time. That was a month ago now though and his hurdle trials don't really tell us a great deal. He might win, but he looks a short price to me. I'm a bit surprised to see Mazaz so short in the betting as well. The 3rd to Runaway at Pakenham wasn't too bad, but he was well beaten last week and was going backwards before he had to check due to the fall of Sir Isaac Newton. I put up Cheners last week and like all good e/w bets he finished 4th behind the easy winner Scholarly (runs in the 2nd). He was slow away from the stalls which wasn't ideal, but it was another solid run over hurdles after his 2nd at Pakenham to Riding High. That is the best form in this for me so at the price he has to be the main bet. Manning Road was just behind him last week in 5th and he fell behind Runaway at Pakenham the time before. That came at the last but he looked like he had done his running at the time. He looks a bit of a non-stayer to me although he wouldn't be completely out of this. Coleridge and Crafty Lion were 5th and 4th respectively in the opening maiden last week and yet Crafty Lion is as big as 40/1 whilst Coleridge is a best of 12/1. I just don't get why Crafty Lion is such a big price. He ran a really nice race from the back last week and wasn't given the strongest ride to stay on for 4th. That was his first run over hurdles since August and he had only had one prep run on the flat before so he should come on for it as well. Coleridge was well backed late last week, but he had only been 7th the time before at Pakenham well behind Cheners. That's two horses he has to reverse form with in this and I am happy to back them both. Cheners e/w @ 13/2 with Betfred Crafty Lion e/w @ 40/1 with Betfred Race 2 (3.15am) Eric Musgrove has 4 of the 6 runners in this BM120 hurdle, but the odds on favourite Scholarly should be too good for them. He was really impressive last week and it was a massive step up from his hurdles debut. If he performs as he did last week he ought to be too good for these although he is priced accordingly. Mr One Eleven could be the best of the Musgrove runners and he seems to be running himself into form. He is down in grade here after finishing 5th in the Galleywood last week but he was only beaten 6L so it wasn't a bad effort. He would be my pick as a forecast option ahead of Michelin who trialled well over hurdles a couple of weeks ago, but ran on the flat at Bendigo instead of going to the Bool which seemed an odd move. Race 3 (3.55am) A maiden chase ends the jumping action and I like two against the field here. I thought Markwood ran really well last week when tried to make all but faded late onto finish 3rd. In a weaker race over slightly shorter I think he could easily make all. He had made a solid chasing debut at Pakenham the time before as well. Newbury was one of my picks in that race last week, but he was a non-runner in the end. He does have a bit of ground to make up on Markwood on Pakenham running, but he trialled impressively beating Markwood after that. He has shown form which would be good enough for him to win this so at a double figure price he is worth a small interest. Tremec is 11 and did finish in front of Markwood at Pakenham, but was just behind him last week. He only got so close as Markwood was getting tired though and he's only hit the frame once in 6 chase starts. Pentelligentsia is 1st up having had some quiet enough trials. He finished 2nd in 2 chase starts last June, but the form is nothing special and he was beaten 9L and 16L. He is young though so scope for improvement. Markwood @ 12/5 with Betfred Newbury e/w @ 11/1 with Betfred
  20. Very sad news and I will always be indebted to Paul for being a big supporter of mine and wanting to keep me on the forums so much that he was willing to get me on board with the site. Punters Lounge is in a really strong place right now and Paul ran it superbly. Hopefully we can all carry on making the site as good as it can be in his honour.
  21. The last 3 races will be available to watch on bookmaker websites should anyone be up early.
  22. Annoyingly because of Sha Tin being on Saturday instead of Sunday we wont get the tail end of the Randwick card or the Doomben race on Sky Sports.
  23. This Saturday in Australia we have G1 action in Adelaide with the South Australian Derby at Morphettville, in Melbourne they race at Caulfield, in Sydney they are at Randwick and I am also covering a race in Queensland this week with a very interesting G3 sprint at Doomben. Morphettville R8 (7.31am) Starting with the big race of the day the South Australian Derby over 2500m and quite a few of these don't seem to have much chance. Dalasan won the G3 over 2035m here a couple of weeks ago which is usually the main prep race for this. He's a good horse, but the unknown is if he will stay or not and I am happy to oppose him with Warning who finished 3rd. We already know he stays this far as he won the Victoria Derby over this trip. He was finishing fast from the back in that contest clocking the fastest last 200m in the contest and in my view he would have won the race if it had been over 2500m. I am also putting one up at double figures e/w in the shape of Zayydani who backs up after running in the Oaks last weekend. She was 7th in that, but didn't have a clear path at all and should have finished a lot closer. Going up to this trip looks a big plus for her and double figure quotes are too big in my view. Russian Camelot's trainer is very bullish about his chances, but we have no idea how good he is as his last win came in a BM64 at Pakenham. He bolted up that night, but this is much tougher and he had to miss his intended prep run. In time he could turn out to be the best of these, but with so little racing I just wonder if he will find the 2500m trip too tough at the moment. Warning @ 3/1 with William Hill, BetVictor and Betway Zayydani e/w @ 14/1 with William Hill (4 places) Caulfield R2 (3.20am) A competitive race this but I like two against the field. Sikorsky ran a decent race first up at Bendigo when 6th and he stepped up on that last time when staying on strongly from midfield to finish 2nd over 1400m. He clocked the fastest last 200m of the race that day, They were his first two runs since finishing 4th in the 2018 Victorian Derby so there is every chance 3rd up he will be ready to strike. The draw is a concern and every chance he will need a bit of luck from the back, but he has Damien Oliver on top which is a big plus. The other one I like is Simply Optimistic who was unlucky not to win over 1100m at Bendigo 2 starts back when he was badly held up. At the 400m marker he was still 14th of 15 and yet he was able to finish 4th beaten just over a length. He was a bit keen over course and distance last time in the same race Sikorsky was 2nd, but if he settles better he has a leading chance in this. He has a good record on soft as well so the ground should be ideal for him. Sikorsky @ 4/1 with Betfair and Betfred Simply Optimistic @ 15/2 with Betfair Caulfield R5 (5.15am) It's Kind Of Magic is the main pick in this contest. She was really impressive when winning a BM70 at Moonee Valley in December when she scored despite have to come wide. She then went to the Gold Coast for the Magic Million Guineas, but she got upset before the race and was keen in it so we can cross that run off. She ran a big race on debut on her first prep and that Moonee Valley win came of the back of a freshen up so we know she can go well off a break. She looks like she could progress through the grades this prep. I am also going to cover Felicia who ran a massive race last time over 1100m here last month finishing 3rd. That was her first run since last January so she should come on for that as long as she doesn't bounce. That was just her 3rd ever start having won her first two. Stepping up to 1200m should be ideal and if she doesn't bounce she should go very close. It's Kind Of Magic @ 9/4 with BetVictor Felicia @ 9/2 with everyone Caulfield R6 (5.55am) Granted I am slightly concerned about the fact they are dropping him back in trip by 100m, but I am keen on Hang Man in this. He ran a solid race 1st up here when 7th over 1400m, but his last run at Flemington over 1700m a couple of weeks ago was a huge effort against a good horse. He stayed on into 2nd when the winner who had led all the way had already gone. He has got blinkers on this time so hopefully they will make him a bit sharper over 1600m. So Si Bon appreciated the drop in class last time and won over course and distance. He's not a prolific winner, but he has a good chance again. I don't think Southern Rock can win this, but he is worth keeping a close eye on for the future. He is having his first start in Australia having been with David O'Meara over here last year. He won his first two races for him over a mile at Hamilton and ended up winning a class 3 at Ripon in August on his last start over just under 1m2f. I think he will want further than 1600m and he will come on for the run. Hang Man @ 11/4 with William Hill and BetVictor Caulfield R7 (6.35am) Shot Of Irish is on the back up after winning at Sandown last week when he beat one of my selections Duke Of Plumpton. He is clearly in very good form, but the track suited front runners that day so he might have been a bit flattered and he got an easy lead. There are other front runners in this so I think he will find it harder to make all. I am instead going to have my main bet on Sentimentalist who is looking to land the hat-trick having won the Stawell Cup and then 6 days later won here both after 2000m. The slight drop in trip is a bit of a concern although he did win over 1400m in February. He looks like he will settle just behind the leaders and that will be the ideal position to pounce. I am also going to have a small e/w bet on Nobu in the hope the track hasn't got too wet by this stage. He was 4th in the Queensland Derby last June and hasn't had his conditions in 3 starts this prep. He wasn't too bad over 2000m on a heavy 9 track here a month ago, but this Chris Waller trained runner is clearly capable of much better if he gets drier conditions. Sentimentalist @ 11/2 with everyone Nobu e/w @ 12/1 with William Hill and Betfred Randwick R1 (2.35am) Two against the field for me in the opener in Sydney. Tejori looks a very smart horse and was impressive at Canberra last month when she clocked a fast time. That was just her 3rd start and she doesn't look like he will have any issues going up to 1200m for the first time. If she can build on that here then she will be hard to beat. I am going to cover Hellenism as well as she also looks a progressive horse. She won over 1100m here in January and then had a break until April 18th when running over course and distance and finished 3rd. That form has worked out well as that race provided 3 of the first 5 home in a race here last week. She had to travel wide that day and is drawn more favourably here in 3. If Tejori doesn't come up to scratch she looks like the won who take advatange. Tejori @ 18/5 with Bet365 Hellenism @ 4/1 with everyone Randwick R4 (4.20am) I like a couple here starting with Subpoenaed who ran a huge race against the very good filly Rubisaki over course and distance last time. She flew home that day and with no Rubisaki in this there is every chance she can get her head in front again back into handicap company. The slight concern is in the inside draw having not shown much speed from the gate so she will need luck in running, but if she gets that she wins for me. Miss Einstein looks overpriced and is worth backing e/w as well. She ran really well on her 1st start of the prep at Rosehill a couple of weeks ago when 5th over 1300m despite not getting a great deal of luck in running. She clocked the best last 600m in the race there and she should improve for that run. Subpoenaed @ 5/2 with Bet365 Miss Einstein e/w 8/1 with William Hill and Betfred Randwick R8 (7am) Greyworm made all to win over course and distance last month with Deprive only finishing in 6th. Deprive had to carry 2.5kg more though and they race off level weights here. I think the form can be reversed as Greyworm got an easy lead that day and nothing came from the back. This will hopefully be a different story as Deprive had run well in better races on his other two starts this prep including a 4th in the G1 Galaxy. I'm certainly prepared to give him another chance in this. Tactical Advantage is the other one I am going to put up. He won this contest last year and looks to have a cracking chance again. He won over 1100m at Rosehill a couple of weeks ago and his finishing sectionals were quick. If he backs that up he is a big player. Deprive @ 4/1 with Bet365 Tactical Advantage @ 11/2 with Betfair, BetVictor and Betway Randwick R9 (7.40am) Decent race to end the card on and I like Dealmaker at an e/w price. Granted he doesn't win very often, but he's pretty consistent and he drops into a BM88 here. I am hoping that can prove the key to success. He was 3rd in a BM100 over 1400m here last month and that was a strong contest. He is a course and distance winner and the last time he ran over course and distance he only just lost in the Spring Mile. I am hopeful that we will get the e/w money at the very least. Grand Piano is the obvious danger as he looks progressive on the back of a win in a BM78 at Rosehill a couple of weeks ago. Strictly speaking Rapido Chaparro is weighted to reverse form and is another one with a chance although he doesn't have the scope for as much progression, but it is his 3rd run of the prep. Dealmaker e/w @ 17/2 with William Hill (4 places) Doomben R8 (6.45am) After the big G1's are done and dusted in Adelaide the attention turns to Brisbane so the races at Doomben are stepping up in class and the G3 BRC Sprint is a very interesting race. Kementari clearly holds strong claims and I have put him up both start this prep. Both runs were good 3rds and he finished strongly last time in the race Greyworm won. I am going to leave him here though as he just seems to struggle to convert winning chances and there is value elsewhere in my view. I always say that they don't mess around with bans in Australia and Baylee Nothdurft was banned for 3 months this week because of the ride he gave Vega One at the Sunshine Coast last time. I have put a link to an article about it all which features a video of the race and it is well worth watching. I am not surprised he got banned as it doesn't look good at all and he could easily have won the race in my view. The horse is clearly in very good form and he has a massive chance here on form. Baylee is on top again here which adds to the story as well. https://www.punters.com.au/news/nothdurft-suspended-over-vega-one-ride_190510/ His trainer has another leading candidate in Outback Barbie and she is worth backing as well. She landed a Listed Race 1st up on her last prep and like her stablemate was also a winner at the Magic Millions meeting at the Gold Coast in January. She trialled really well and looks to be in great form. Hopefully one of them can get the better of Kementari. Vega One @ 14/5 with Bet365 Outback Barbie @ 4/1 with William Hill
  24. R5 Cranbourne (10am) I like Vici in this contest whose 4th at Sandown last time has worked out well with the first two finishing 1st and 2nd in a race at Sandown last Saturday. That was his 1st start this prep and he didn't help his cause by being slow away. Hopefully he's quicker away here as he has an inside draw in 2. He drops down in class and a repeat of that effort should be good enough. Kalakarni Royale is the obvious danger having won at Mornington on her debut. She won well enough and she was well backed that day. Vici @ 11/4 with everyone