erhaab1965
-
Posts
1,403 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Posts posted by erhaab1965
-
-
Re: Wizzkid's 'Short Priced Favourites' Thread Appologies if i sounded like i was having a pop ,it was not the intention ,was just airing my opinion.I will refrain from posting on this thread again. I hope it goes well for you.
-
Re: Well Done Hayley Turner Very happy for her Gr1 win , but not sure why she deserves to win a Gr1 more than anybody else , or that it was a better success than Alex Greaves.Infact Greaves if i recall had very few rides outside of the D Nicholls yard so for her to win a Gr1 was to me a bigger achievement , considering Turner gets a lot of rides from top yards. There are many other good jockeys who've been around for a while who i would like to see taste Group success these include Tom Eaves ,Jamie MacKay , Saleem Golam , Ian Mongan and Jerry O'Dwyer. Again well done Hayley.
-
Re: Team orders, do you think they still happen? The O'Brien team have always employed them in top races.With them its about getting the right result for the individual horses.A prominant race which springs to mind is the 2008 Queen Anne Stakes at Royal Ascot ,Haradasun an 8yr old from Austrailia needed a Gr1 win in the northern hemisphere before going to stud. In this race the O'Brien pacemaker took the whole field across the near side , just before the 1f marker he veered right and nodded his head this allowed Johnny Murtagh to make his passage against the rail to finally win.He was retired retired to stud after this Gr1 win. Other camps employ them too like the Abdulla team and Godolphin. Good luck to them i say if punters get it wrong , tough. In ordinary maidens / handicaps where the 2nd or 3rd string wins i don't think anything sinister is going on unless the betting says otherwise.
-
Re: Wizzkid's 'Short Priced Favourites' Thread Whilst i'm following your thread with great interest , i can't but think you are just selecting all horses priced at odd on , the shorter the price the bigger the stake. I too like to bet horses with a bigger chance of winning , but somedays there are short priced horses which are not worthy of a bet. This maybe because its trained by a high profile trainer or it has one piece of good form which hasn't been scruntenised yet , or whatever...Poole Harbour today and yesterdays Burwaaz are what i mean.Even though the market suggested they would win , i didn't think they were worthy of a bet. I think your staking plan staking plan needs looking at also. The shorter the price doesn't justify the bigger the bet approach. As you know if you have 5pts@ 1/3 which loses you need to bet 15pts worth of bets @ 1/3 to make that stake back.This to me is betting suicide.What size bet would you have if a horse was 1/5 or less? As you know these horses occasionally get turned over too , but if they win you don't gain much. I admit to being a losing punter over the years but one thing i have learnt is to lose my money at a slower rate. If you're having a 5pt on a 1/3 shot then with better priced favs you should be having similar bets if you fancy them instead of having 1pt @10/11.
-
Re: Matting On Racecourses Matting on racecourses is not much of a topic for debate.
-
Re: paddock/parade ring After 20 odd years i still wouldn't know what to look for at the racecourse.I couldn't distinguish a group horse from a selling plater , and i'm sure a lot of us on here would be the same. If you don't know anything about paddock watching then just simply ignore it as a tool for picking winners.The only time i take notice of paddock information is when close to the off time a horse drifts massively in the market.I usually stay clear of the drifter and back something else.
-
Re: Matting On Racecourses
I'm no expert on this matter but if Curley has elected not to insure his horses then it must not be mandatory.Given the choice i would avoid insuring anything especially my car.Insurance is on of the biggest scams known to man.I'd be tens of 1000's of pounds richer if it wasn't for paying rip off premiums over the years. I think he is quite right in making a claim against the course.If you for example was to trip over a cable and break your leg at your local Tesco would you be happy if Tesco refused to acknowledge any responsibility and that you should claim on your personal insurance if you have any.The filly died because of this? Must have been some freak accident. Curley's own fault for not insuring his stable. I'm sure he insures his car. A musician would insure their instrument? -
Re: Harlequin.
yes thats the one' date=' and I do remember Laddies having a bet called a Fivespot a 5 horse acca, which I had a few times, and the settlers used to hate doing returns on lucky 15's and 31's[/quote'] Calculating lucky 15,31,63s is actually very straight forward. Just add 1 to the individual odds mulitply them by each other then subract 1 to get the returns to £1. Also multiply by the bonus % right at the end. I always carried a pocket calculator before mobiles became widespread.Occassionally a dodgy cashier would try to short change me when collecting multiple bets. -
Re: Wizzkid's 'Short Priced Favourites' Thread The selections that you put up , are they the only horses you actually bet on or do you stray and put other bets on that don't fit the thread? A lot of my own bets have included many of the ones you've put up. But in order maintain longevity in betting horses , i try to occasionally find good priced outsiders or bet on exotic bets when the opportunity arises. Betting exclusively on very short priced horses will eventually lead to bancruptcy. Only my opinion just offering some advice which may help. Good luck , if you have a good day its most likely i will too.
-
Re: Johnston Stable Personally i admire him as a trainer.His motto is "Always Trying" which can be seen on jackets of his staff and on his horse boxes and i'm sure that is the case with all of his runners. From a punting perspective i have to agree he's been quite hit and miss of late. On another note has anyone else noticed Greg Fairley hasn't ridden for him since his fraud accusations.Has Johnston sacked him or has he been demoted down the ladder? I remember when Kevin Darley rode a lot for the stable , after a few misjudged rides he went down the pecking order for a while.He has a odd system for selecting jockeys S De Souza seems to have overtaken the stalwart J Fanning.
-
Re: Fred , sort out the Tote Pools.
There is no way of sorting out the Tote pools' date=' it is all down to the total amount of money that has been bet on the each of the runners shared out to the winners, minus the commission.[/quote'] I'm well aware of how the pools work.What i want is for the Tote bets to be properly marketed in order to generate a viable betting alternative to fixed odds and the exchanges.If you look at some of the midweek trifecta pools often you will see less than £500 in the total pool .If the tricast happens to pay £3k the trifecta can only pay whats in the pool which may be less than £500 less deductions and even less if won to more than £1.00 unit stake. Even in the win and place markets a paltry bet of £10 can significantly alter the dividends.I have often put bets of £20/£10 EW on outsiders at the racecourse because the current dividend onscreen was a lot better than on the rails. Within seconds of placing the bet the current dividend can drastically change.In other countries the Tote markets are very strong and it can withstand big bets without distorting the betting market. Another gripe i have is the minimum unit stake in the exotic bets like the Scoop 6 and Super7.Reduce them to something like 50p and i'm sure the pools will swell to more than what they currently reach.The Super7 rollsover each day with approx £100 bet into it each day by unsuspecting casual puners.The Jackpot should be 10p unit stakes as oposed to 50p.Many times i've wanted a crack when its rolled over to £1million + but a realistic perm @50p units will cost £100s.15/20 years ago i used to get them up to 10p stakes but today its only viable to syndicates not the everyday punter. Come on Fred sort it out. -
I like bets where it is easier to get up, one of them is the Toteswinger. For those of you who are not aware of this bet you have to pick 2 horses to come in the first 3 , in races of 6 or more runners.Theres not a lot of liquidity in the bet, but i do have a bet in it occasionally if i find it hard to pick out a horse which stands out. In the 650 Epsom tonight a 6 runner race the 2 outsiders came first and second @ 14/1 and 40/1. The CSF paid £291 and Exacta £295. The swinger £4.50 !!!!! I didn't bet on it but i'd be irate if i got it up to a few quid.Infact lucky i didn't get it up 'cos it would have paid even less. Whilst on the topic of poor Tote pools i rember getting a placepot to £10 and the dividend was £1.50 ,(all the favs were placed , but still). Also i had a £400 Tote place only bet on a horse called Helissio ( Arc winner year before)in the King George QE2 Diamond Stakes of 1997 who started off at around evens.I bet it on Totedirect in my local bookies along with the 10% betting tax at the time.My heart was pounding until it past the post in 3rd , much to my relief at the time , until i saw the dividend of £1.00. I got a winning place bet up but made a £40 loss!!! WTF £440 bet comes up but the return is £400!!!! Come on Fred get your brains behind the pools and get them sorted. Anybody else got any awful Tote stories?
-
Re: Is Ryan Moore Genuinely Miserable? How is a 3 minute interview going to promote horse racing . Basically a lot of people are a bit cheesed off because they want to hear about the chances of a Ryan Moore mount , so they can lump on with confidence , nothing to do with promoting the sport. When Dettori does it it to promote himself. I remember buying from Iceland ( foodstore ) about 10 years ago , Frankie Dettori's frozen pizzas , tinned tomatoes and kidney beans , don't think the range lasted more than a few months. What about his vidoes , books , restaurants even the Frankie Dettori Board Game. Anyone remember him fronting Top of the Pops about 15 years ago FFS !!
-
Re: Is Ryan Moore Genuinely Miserable? Moore is a top class jockey and will be in the top 5 for the next few years. He does his talking on the track rather than in front of journalists which is fine with me. He's a shy person and doesn't look comfortable in front of the camera so why do we need to see him give long interviews. He's just a jockey , why are people asking him to front the horse racing industry. Its like asking Dimitar Berbatov to be spokeman for the Premier League because he was top goalscorer. Leave him alone , all he wants to do is ride horses. Leave the showmanship / self promoting / quiz shows to people like Dettori.
-
Re: Wizzkid's 'Short Priced Favourites' Thread Liking the thread. Q. I know you have started with a 100pt bank , how do you determine how much to stake per horse? What is your minimum /max bet ? Do they go up in 1/2 pt incements?
-
Re: Wizzkid's 'Short Priced Favourites' Thread I'm following this thread with great interest as some of the bets are the ones i've backed recently. Q. Are you betting these selections yourself ? If so do you follow your staking plan with a 100 point bank?
-
Re: The Jockey Thread Have to agree about Queally's misjudged rides at Royal Ascot this week and also a few others elsewhere.He's not quite a top class jockey yet. I think he has potential , just a few more years and a few more outside rides on class horses and he'll be up there with the best of them. He's only a young kid , give him a break.
-
Re: Royal Ascot I remember the Gr1 QE2 from 1995 fondly , the race where W Carson pioneered the "Bahri route" beating odds on favourite Ridgewood Pearl ( subsequent Breeders Cup winner .)Fantasic ride !! Its courses like this which makes racing so interesting. It would be awfully boring if the favourite won with followed by the 2nd and 3rd favs in each race. When betting we should factor in draw/ track biases. Timeforms J Mcgraph gave a good piece of advice a few years back and that is if you are not sure back one drawn high and one drawn low so you got 2 chances to win. Me personally in Wokingham type races i often go for a scattergun approach and back up to 8 runners trying to achieve combined odds od 2/1 or better. Ps i did bollocks in that QE2 race , had a monster bet on Ridgewood Pearl , i was on the best horse like many of us today but was out smarted on the day.
-
Re: Gary Wiltshire on BBC today Where can i watch ATR for free anyone ?
-
Re: AK in this spot ? At this stage of a tournie , if there is an all in before you , with AK is it ok to pass it if it is for the majority of your chips?
-
Re: Gary Wiltshire on BBC today Not too keen on the BBC coverage , the content inbetween races is awful. They have an opporunity to fill it with interesting featuretes because of no advert breaks but they seem to put on stuff that no horse racing fans don't enjoy. Why does fashion feature so much on BBC horseracing , who watches it for the fashion. Glad they sacked that repugnant James Sherwood but they replaced him with another irritating albeit cheaper knob. Don't like most of the presenters , Balding is full of herself , Persad waffler and arselicker. The post race analysis is very good but Bartlett has no charisma and Darley is too scared to tell bad mouth any jockey , so he sometimes does not give an accurate analysis. Do us a favour BBC and give whats left of your racing coverage to C4. Stop wasting license payers money.
-
Re: Gary Wiltshire on BBC today The gamble will have been started today. Antepost liabilities would be extremely minimal. Theres no doubt it was a massive gamble and all the big hitters came out to play. But can it be described as the biggest gamble ever at Royal Ascot.
-
In his role reporting the betting market he said in regards to Fame and Glory "... its the biggest gamble i've ever seen at Royal Ascot..." Does anyone think he was being honest when hyping up this gamble? The horse did win and i hope many armchair punters latched on (myself not included.) Surely it is a bit of an exaggeration to make such a claim having been in the trade himself for over 2 decades. The final Sp was 11/8 representing 42% of the book. Therefore there must have been money for the other 14 runners to balance the book.If it was such a big gamble wouldn't it have been odds on in the end ? Post race he claims bookie X and bookie Y lost £xmillions but being such a short price surely the losing bets more than made up for it? As usual when a well backed favorite wins he says the bookies have lost a fortune but i can't see it. In betting shops up and down the country small staking punters would have avoided a 11/8 shot and maybe gone EW on the 2nd/3rd/4th favorites which were unplaced. What do others think , am i taking a simplistic view of this?
-
Re: The Jockey Thread
Had a few quid on that ride , went too early again , bit like his Midday ride. He will make be top jockey in the next 5 years ,just lacking tactical awareness given his youth.Spot on, Queally is fecking incompetent and can not judge pace, he lost later at Kempton going to the front too soon, hes that bad Jackie Quest refused to race for Murtagh the other day. Look at Queallys record the last few months ...terrible.
Well Done Hayley Turner
in At The Races - Racing Forum
Posted
Re: Well Done Hayley Turner
Agree