harry_rag

Good luck with your bets, I've sided more with the visitors but hopefully we can both turn a profit. I've bought their hotshots at 24 with Spreadex (25 points per Folau, Carraro, Horne or Guildford try). I just can't see how it's less than 25 rather than a few points higher. Of the 4, Guildford looks over priced with Skybet at 10/3 anytime and 25/1 for 2 or more and I've topped up with small bets at those prices.
 

Brumbies v Waratahs: Who will be Australia's alpha team?
https://www.punterslounge.com/betting-tips/rugby-union/super-18/brumbies-v-waratahs-tips-who-will-be-australia-s-alpha-team--2016022902

Have simply followed on the Dufner bet as I can't quite get my head round the implications of the smaller field and no cut on the FP market. I haven't decided what my price point would be yet, compared to the usual full field events. One player who definitely does meet my "sell high" brief is Scott Hend and I've sold him at 46 with SPIN.
That's on the back of a recommendation to back him for a top 20 finish at 8/1, something that does appear to be shortening in a few places.

Good luck
At least with no cut this week, my bet will play all 4 days!
Top 20 Finish
Jason Dufner @ 11-4 [Coral]
Class act who was 9th here 2 years ago and is already a winner this season
 
 
 

0.5 point on under 8 Asian total cards in Real Madrid v Atletico Madrid at 19/20 with 365
Possibly counter intuitive to go low on cards in this fixture but I suppose that fits with the whole "against the crowd" notion of where you're more likely to find value,

I feel your pain, literally! If they were going to finish outside the top 20 they could, at least, have had the decency to beat their FP quotes! 
It's an inevitable part of betting more on outsiders than favourites and one I've just about learnt to take in my stride over the years. The last 2 weeks I've managed to show a profit despite 3 out of my 6 FP sells missing the cut. With 4 out of 5 doing so this week it's easily going to be the worst week of my recent foray into golf betting. I'll still be back next week though.

Because you've increased the total goals expectation from around 2.41 to 2.61, simple as that. As the calculator seems to be pretty much be using poisson to calculate the odds, it's underestimating the chances of both teams scoring the same number of goals (i.e. the draw).
As has been stated, just using the data you're using will never get you that close to the "true" odds but it's fine if you're just dipping your toe in the waters or are doing it for fun. Even if you used numbers based on 50% of your calculation and 50% of the average home/away goals for the whole league it would probably get you closer to the market odds.

If the significant absence was in the underdog's defence, for example, you could increase the total goals expectation and the supremacy by the same amount, e.g. add 0.2 onto both so that 1.5/1.1 became 1.7/1.1. That would impact match and overs odds.

Sold his FP at 55 and, as stated in the Perth International thread, done the T20 double of him and J.B. Hansen.

Your goals and supremacy numbers are probably unrealistic. The spreads imply total goals are expected to be around 2.2 or 2.25 with Boro supremacy 0.4 or 0.45. Maybe those numbers would give you closer to the market odds. If you really trust your numbers, then take the value you've found (but if it was that easy, everyone would be doing it)!

Just to add, you'll never get true numbers just by crunching the averages for each team this season, you'll need to be far more sophisticated than that to beat the bookies but, if you are going to do that, your figures in this case have been badly skewed by the unusually low number of goals Boro have conceded at home. As they're away, you'd arguably be better (but not that much) focusing on respective home/away totals for each team.

BETS
3 Points E/W BRANDEN GRACE (30/1, Paddy Power, 1/5 Odds 7 Places)
2 Points E/W ANDY SULLIVAN (80/1, Paddy Power, 1/5 Odds 7 Places)
2 Points E/W BOO WEEKLEY (125/1, Paddy Power, 1/5 Odds 7 Places)
2 Points E/W BERND WIESBERGER (125/1, Sky Bet - 1/4 Odds 6 Places)
1 Point E/W ALEX CEJKA (300/1, Paddy Power - 1/5 Odds 7 Places)
 
Full Preview --> https://www.punterslounge.com/betting-tips/golf/the-honda-classic-2016022205

Like ^^^^ that Zac Blair. Has a good shout this week. 
PGA National is a brute of a par-70 and the start of the Florida swing. We often see a change here as 'unfancied players' spring from no-where to take the price on the Bermudagrass greens in Florida.  Harrington (400/1), Henley (300/1) and Michael Thompson (300/1) have all scored in the past 3 renewals pretty-much with no form whatsoever. High winds, tough rough and water everywhere, can make the Champions Course a true challenge when the Florida wind howls and scoring is sure to be high across Thursday and Friday. Saturday and Sunday should see slightly easier conditions, but winners from off the pace here are pretty much unheard of. 
I'm going for a mixed price bag this week with the average winning price here in the past 6 renewals working out at 187/1. At the elite end Patrick Reed (22), supported by Jason Dufner (80) and Webb Simpson (80). Bigger prices are formed by Camilo Villegas (150), Sean O'Hair (150) and Geoff Ogilvy (250).

Good luck Aidy
Top 20 Finish
Zac Blair @ 8-1 [William Hill]
Love the way this guy plays his golf. Can bit hit and miss but when he is on he is hot. Played this hard course well last year

Top 20 Finish
Joachim B Hansen @ 11-2 [Betfred]
Good course record [7th in 2013], and after poor start to the year has played better recently
 
 

Have decided to go with the sell of Horsey at 46. Still suspended with Spreadex but no sign of a drift in the market and he's reassured someone who asked on Twitter that he'll be fine for tomorrow.

Can't pass up a sell of his FP at 52. Followed someone in on him last week and took the hit of the missed cut. Hopefully he'll "do a Blixt" and have a good week after missing the cut, the difference being I'll have stuck with him on this occasion!

Good luck boys
Top 20 Finish
Bryce Molder @ 11-2 [Bet 365]
Though missed the cut last week, has had a couple of decent tournaments this year. Also this course is more suited to his A game of straight driving and an elite short game having finished 6th here 2 years ago
 

I do tip up the same players at times but if i think they are value i don't have a problem with that as is the case here Martin Kaymer 18/1 e/w Corals does go off the boil at times but is top class if he gets off to a good first round here i can see him go very close. Have also did him in a e/w double with Matsuyama  also 18's.

BETS
Back Thomas Pieters E/W @ 33/1 Sky Bet (5 Places)
Back Lucas Bjerregaard E/W @ 80/1 Bet Victor (5 Places)
Back David Horsey E/W @ 100/1 Bet365 (5 Places)
 
Full Preview --> https://www.punterslounge.com/betting-tips/golf/maybank-championship-malaysia-tips-2016021605

This thread seems to be driving a coach and horses through the rules for posting in systems and strategy. No indication of odds or bookie before or after the event, an ROI claimed where most of the bets were placed before the thread was started., no indication of the ROI of the bets actually posted in the thread. I'd say it belongs in the glory hunts thread but I'm not sure it would even be compliant with the rules for there.
Or am I being unduly harsh?

Not the worst finishing position play I've ever made either.

T14th

13 winners and 1 push from 26 bets this season, a profit of 0.63 points with a yield of 2.4% and overall +19.71 with a yield of 20.11% from 98 bets.

The AT&T seems to be extremely top-heavy in 2016, with the AT&T $7,000,000 having plenty to do with it - that's the biggest purse of 2016 to date. Bubba and Rose are infrequent visitors and that tells you you all you need to know. It's also worth recognising that some of the world's best have noted that the US Open at Oakmont in June is also being played on poa annua greens - hence get the practice / experience in. This tournament and it's 3-course rota, always plays as difficult the wind conditions, so with breeze only a factor on Saturday expect -17 to -18 to be very competitive. Pebble and Spyglass play much harder in the wind, which might help the Monterey starters on Saturday, but those that play the latter on Thurs/Fri will be able to take it apart. The draw could be a big factor.  
West Coast and poa annua specialists is always the paly here and the average winning odds of the winner here since 2010 is 34/1.  That's short in a full-field tournament. So I'm keeping it simple after a win on Matsuyama last week and going for Snedeker, Mickelson, and J.B. Holmes. Naturally Spieth, DJ and Walker will also be popular, but you can't back them all, especially at this week's prices.