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Super Rugby 2015/2016

plloyd88

By plloyd88
in Rugby Union Predictions

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harry_rag

harry_rag

Posted
Posted
On 2/29/2016, 3:00:43, plloyd88 said:

Brumbies v Waratahs: Who will be Australia's alpha team?

https://www.punterslounge.com/betting-tips/rugby-union/super-18/brumbies-v-waratahs-tips-who-will-be-australia-s-alpha-team--2016022902

Good luck with your bets, I've sided more with the visitors but hopefully we can both turn a profit. I've bought their hotshots at 24 with Spreadex (25 points per Folau, Carraro, Horne or Guildford try). I just can't see how it's less than 25 rather than a few points higher. Of the 4, Guildford looks over priced with Skybet at 10/3 anytime and 25/1 for 2 or more and I've topped up with small bets at those prices.

 

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Messi10

Messi10

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Good articles, you've been spot on with everything so far. I thought I was the only one obsessed by super rugby! 

Before the season started I looked at the new format. My pick for the regular season was the Stormers. Being in a group with the terrible Sunwolves, the average Cheetahs and the average Bulls (missing Handre Pollard for the season) mean they're almost certain to win SA Group 1.

They have pretty generous fixtures and should end up as top seed.

The Brumbies are Australia's alpha team as you say, and probably the best side in Super Rugby this year. In New Zealand all the teams will beat each other, there's very little between all 5 teams, the Chiefs had a shock home loss to the impressive Lions, but I suspect they could still win the NZ conference.

How do you guys like to bet on Super Rugby. Skybet let us have a couple of grand on the match result which is generous-Other bookmakers limit so strongly what we can bet. There's never enough money on the exchanges to trade. 

 

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plloyd88

plloyd88

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It's not hard to love!

Love a bit of ITM cup as well. 

Haven't really looked at the overall format as much as have really just lumped on the Brumbies as they look the stand out team whereas it could be argued for some of the rest. Hurricanes looked dead certs last year though and they lost so who knows. 

Bet365 are usually pretty good with limits but I guess it can depend as I've found SkyBet restrictive. 

I like the look of the Chiefs to do a job on the Southern Kings this weekend, handicap is around 17 but wouldn't be surprised if the Chiefs own by 30+

 

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Messi10

Messi10

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Absolutely spot on plloyd, I have to say, the Southern Kings look absolutely terrible, considerably worse than either the 2nd worst team the Sunwolves.

My stormers pick not looking so strong now, The Brumbies are marching on. You're right, they're the strongest side, I've been looking too much into the format, the fact is the Brumbies are the best side.

The playoff structure though is quite random, being top seed doesn't give you a bye week this year, 8 teams in the quarter final, 1 plays 8, 2 plays 7 etc etc

just like the champions cup in Europe. Should benefit the NZ sides who finish lower in their conference, as they'll fancy a match against say the Stormers or Sharks in SA.

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harry_rag

harry_rag

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Not sure if this is of any use to anyone, being a spread bet, but I think the following is a very good bet.

Chiefs v Force: Buy Chiefs hotshots at 37* with Spreadex (25 points per McKenzie, Tamanivalu, Ngatai or Lowe try)

Reasons for liking it are

  • Taking an approach of valuing the hotshots on the basis of the player try minutes quotes, I make that quartet worth just short of 42 points
  • That's an edge of just over 13% and it's very rare to get a perceived edge in double figures in this market
  • All of the players have reasonably encouraging stats, again it's rare for there not to be at least one "makeweight" in among the hotshots
  • SPIN quote 43-47 with McNicol instead of Ngatai. I'd definitely rather have the latter on my side and there's no way you'd expect such a big difference in the prices

Be prepared to possibly lose 37 times your stake, but I'm confident this is a value buy at the price.

* Gone up to 38 while I type but I'd still be prepared to get involved at that price.

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plloyd88

plloyd88

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12 hours ago, harry_rag said:

Not sure if this is of any use to anyone, being a spread bet, but I think the following is a very good bet.

Chiefs v Force: Buy Chiefs hotshots at 37* with Spreadex (25 points per McKenzie, Tamanivalu, Ngatai or Lowe try)

Reasons for liking it are

  • Taking an approach of valuing the hotshots on the basis of the player try minutes quotes, I make that quartet worth just short of 42 points
  • That's an edge of just over 13% and it's very rare to get a perceived edge in double figures in this market
  • All of the players have reasonably encouraging stats, again it's rare for there not to be at least one "makeweight" in among the hotshots
  • SPIN quote 43-47 with McNicol instead of Ngatai. I'd definitely rather have the latter on my side and there's no way you'd expect such a big difference in the prices

Be prepared to possibly lose 37 times your stake, but I'm confident this is a value buy at the price.

* Gone up to 38 while I type but I'd still be prepared to get involved at that price.

What a tip! 7 out of their 9 tries scored by McKenzie, Tamanivalu and Lowe

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harry_rag

harry_rag

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Cheers, I think that's my biggest ever win on a hotshots market. I remember hitting 175 before in a game where Real Madrid ran riot but I'd bought at a higher price and for a lower stake. It was actually Ngatai (with 4 tries) rather than Tamanivalu who scored along with McKenzie and Lowe, so it was fortunate that the lower price was with the firm who included him as one of the hotshots.

If nothing else, it dispels the illogical inclination to think that everything I post one here ends up losing! :)

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harry_rag

harry_rag

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Not far off kick off but 2 bets that appeal in the Cheetahs v Brumbies game are:

Prinsloo to score a try at 7/2 with 888

Buy Pocock's try minutes at 19 with Spreadex (or 2/1 anytime with PP if you don't spread bet)

Both have recent stats that make those prices look a little generous. Pocock scored 2 hat tricks last season and one of those would be welcome today given the buy of his try minutes. Prinsloo scored in 6 of 13 starts last season.

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plloyd88

plloyd88

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A couple of bets have stood out to me while the markets are still fresh. The Crusaders are 10/11with Ladbrokes to beat the Lions and the Brumbies -4 against the Chiefs with SkyBet.

Think the Crusaders are too classy to slip up to the 4th/5th best team in South Africa and also that the Brumbies pack will be way too strong for the Chiefs.

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