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The Honda Classic > Feb 25th - 28th


Aidymac

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BETS

3 Points E/W BRANDEN GRACE (30/1, Paddy Power, 1/5 Odds 7 Places)

2 Points E/W ANDY SULLIVAN (80/1, Paddy Power, 1/5 Odds 7 Places)

2 Points E/W BOO WEEKLEY (125/1, Paddy Power, 1/5 Odds 7 Places)

2 Points E/W BERND WIESBERGER (125/1, Sky Bet - 1/4 Odds 6 Places)

1 Point E/W ALEX CEJKA (300/1, Paddy Power - 1/5 Odds 7 Places)

 

Full Preview --> https://www.punterslounge.com/betting-tips/golf/the-honda-classic-2016022205

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Like ^^^^ that Zac Blair. Has a good shout this week. 

PGA National is a brute of a par-70 and the start of the Florida swing. We often see a change here as 'unfancied players' spring from no-where to take the price on the Bermudagrass greens in Florida.  Harrington (400/1), Henley (300/1) and Michael Thompson (300/1) have all scored in the past 3 renewals pretty-much with no form whatsoever. High winds, tough rough and water everywhere, can make the Champions Course a true challenge when the Florida wind howls and scoring is sure to be high across Thursday and Friday. Saturday and Sunday should see slightly easier conditions, but winners from off the pace here are pretty much unheard of. 

I'm going for a mixed price bag this week with the average winning price here in the past 6 renewals working out at 187/1. At the elite end Patrick Reed (22), supported by Jason Dufner (80) and Webb Simpson (80). Bigger prices are formed by Camilo Villegas (150), Sean O'Hair (150) and Geoff Ogilvy (250).

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Three bets for me this week two e/w on the outright market & a win bet on first round leader which is Rors at around 18 on BF was 2nd after the 1st round when he won this in 2012  goes well here usually well worth a bet to be leading after 1st round at the price on BF. Luke  Donald goes well here and at 66's he is well worth an e/w punt played ok last week and can kick on from that i really thing he could have a very good week here,. Matsuyama 20/1 went well for three rounds last week looked like he would have a say in the finish but a poor last round by his standards scuppered that can be involved again this week imo.

 

Best of luck lads.

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On 2/23/2016, 3:27:16, Striker said:

Good luck Aidy

Top 20 Finish

Zac Blair @ 8-1 [William Hill]

Love the way this guy plays his golf. Can bit hit and miss but when he is on he is hot. Played this hard course well last year

Sold his FP at 55 and, as stated in the Perth International thread, done the T20 double of him and J.B. Hansen.

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A couple more FP sells that appeal based on posts in this thread; sell Bernd Wiesberger at 47 and Sean O'Hair at 51.

(No disrespect to any of the other picks, I can only consider the players who are quoted by the spread firms in the first place, tend to favour prices in the high 40s and upwards and try and find players who look least likely to miss the cut!)

I've also sold Blixt at 48 based on a recommendation to back him each way elsewhere.

Edited by harry_rag
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On ‎23‎/‎02‎/‎2016‎ ‎15‎:‎27‎:‎16, Striker said:

Good luck Aidy

Top 20 Finish

Zac Blair @ 8-1 [William Hill]

Love the way this guy plays his golf. Can bit hit and miss but when he is on he is hot. Played this hard course well last year

 

Awful week as Blair tailed off before missing the cut:@

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I feel your pain, literally! If they were going to finish outside the top 20 they could, at least, have had the decency to beat their FP quotes! :)

It's an inevitable part of betting more on outsiders than favourites and one I've just about learnt to take in my stride over the years. The last 2 weeks I've managed to show a profit despite 3 out of my 6 FP sells missing the cut. With 4 out of 5 doing so this week it's easily going to be the worst week of my recent foray into golf betting. I'll still be back next week though.

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