Evertonboy
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Posts posted by Evertonboy
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Re: Kevin Pullien's "True Odds"
The selections highlighted are just the most likely winner, note on the Liverpool game there both just as likely to win as each each other. I'll be back later to post any value picksHey there can you explain the table are the ones highlighted the ones that match your odds calculator -
Re: Kevin Pullien's "True Odds"
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Morning, After posting my selections in the Midweek section of this forum, a few people have been asking about how I come up with my prices. So, here goes... Firstly, people may be interested in reading this similar thread: http://forum.punterslounge.com/f21/pullein-power-95650/ and my old thread on "true odds": http://forum.punterslounge.com/f21/true-odds-calculator-107725/ For those who don't know of Kevin Pullien, he is a respected Racing Post tipster. Last year I bought a his book "A Definitive Guide to Betting on Football" and produced a spreadsheet based on his calculations in order to work out the "true" chance of certain events in football matches. For this thread tho, I will concentrate on his match odds only. How I Determine The Odds The first step is to work out each team in questions profile. To do this we need to calculate their "Strike Rate". In order to calculate this you need each teams WDL record. Then using the following formula you can determine their Strike Rate: (W+(D*0.5)/(W+D+L))*100. For example, Everton based on this seasons form have a strike rate of 50% (9+14*.05)/(9+14+8)*100. In his book Kevin suggests that he has the best results using around 60 games, I tend to use data from the current season as well as last season. Once you have the strike rate from both teams, you then need to compare the results of games with similar strike rates. Don't worry - Kevin has done all the work for you and has compiled a table based on thousands of games over the last 10 years or so. This then gives you the "true" chance of the home win, away win and the draw. As Kevin states in his book, nobody can predict the future, but in his opinion, the past is the best guide to the future. He does this by using past games between similar teams (strike rate wise) as a guide. For any more info, I suggest you buy the book :lol My intention is to post my odds for the remaining Premier League games and firstly highlight the most likely winner, and if I have time any value picks. (And possibly paper-trail most likely winner/ value pick combo) Any questions/ thoughts, please ask.
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Re: Grand National Thread
Killyglen has too fallen too many times to be considered I feel' date=' as we all know those fences are fairly unforgiving to dodgy jumpers....[/quote'] As far as I can see he has never fallen?? 12215/11P1/2PP2P-2536 -
Re: Notes Basically I can read the form, but have no idea what to look for to point towards what might be a winner in a future/ antepost race. What constitutes "running well"? How do people identify that potential "Gold Cup horse" months before the race? Hope this helps :unsure
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With the flat season still in its infancy, I'd like to try and start my own horse racing notebook with horses to keep an eye out of for as the season progresses. Only problem is, I don't really know what to look for. That may sound strange to you, but I feel I can read form and read race results etc. What kind of horse should be going into my notebook? What race data should I record? What constitutes an eye catching performance? I need a few ideas to form a starting point, any help would be greatly appreciated.
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Re: Grand National Thread Morning, With a field of 40 runners I thought it was the perfect time to try out my race profiling method. (Taken from Racecaller.com)
Using the above, Ive been a little flexible so perhaps not all the trends above have been met, I have the following shortlist and made the following notes: Big Fella Thanks Goes on good ground or softer, performed well at Aintree, stayed on last time out, jumps ok - UR mistakes can be forgiven, likes a big field, won off 146 against similar rated horses, 4th last year of 146 but 2lb lighter, 6th year before of 149 with 11st, trainer form poor, ran over national fences. *The only thing putting me off is that this year he carries more weight and runs off a higher rating than in his previous 2 nationals, i'd like to hear other peoples thoughts on this matter* Ballabriggs Would probably prefer good ground but has won on soft, runs best Jan- March- so perhaps this comes 1 month to late, running well, odd jumping mistake, field size no prob, running of highest ever mark in a handicap, trainer form average. Silver By Nature The softer going the better, best performances in winter mud, running well, jumps well, likes big fields, won of 149 against lower rated but won of 143 against higher, trainer form good Cheif Dan George Good or gd-sft, running ok, jumps ok, big fields no prob, ranwell of 148 with similar weight, performs best late winter spring, trainer form poor, ran at aintree but never over national fences Killyglen Prefer good ground but will act on heavy, running poorly, jumps ok, midfield when ran of same rating but top weight, spring horse, trainer form good, won at aintree on mildmay course Any thoughts?Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse: · Aged 8 to 11 (9 or 10 especially) · Carrying 10-11 or more · Carrying no more than a stone higher than bottom weight · Officially rated 140 or higher · Irish bred · Won no more than once this season · Won a listed or graded chase worth 29K+ · Won over 3M+ · Run 4 to 6 times since September & run since 15th February · Run in at least 10 chases (winning 3 to 5) · Posted an RPR of 140+ in one of last 3 chase starts · Run over hurdles in 2011 · Previously run over National fences · Placed in an Irish/Welsh/Scottish/Aintree National · Trained in Ireland -
Re: 2011 Boxing Thread Robin Reid at just less than 9/2 on Betfair. Unbelievable price for a former world champion. Granted he hasn't fought for a few years but he is clearly a class above the rest. Dutched with sound boxer Fielding from the other half of the draw.
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Re: Golf: PGA Tour 2011 - WGC Cadillac & Puerto Rico Open Good evening, Not really had a golf wager for a while but thought id get back on the wagon this week. My selections are: Cadillac Open Golf Matt Kuchar Having a decent year so far, his last 3 starts have produced finishes of 32/3 and 17. Did well round here last year to finish 3rd. He also boasts quite a good driving accuracy and he seems to be putting relatively well. Paul Casey Another player having a decent year, a missed cut a few weeks ago the only blemish. Made the cut on his last 3 visits here including a 6th place last time round. Thomas Aiken His last 3 tournements have yielded finishes of 13/6/7 and performed well here last year finishing in 7th. I feel he is massively overpriced given his current form. Any thoughts?
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I think this is the most appropriate place for it :unsure My new Sports trading blog: http://diaryofanewbiesportstrader.blogspot.com/
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Re: Preperation
Based on what's happened' date=' I'd do something other than look at the weather forecast....:rollin[/quote'] The weather forecast is mainly for 5-day games where the draw is a runner... Fantastic result for Ireland though :loon -
I thought it would be interesting to hear other peoples view on how they approach different sporting events with a view to trade/ bet. For example what stats they consult (if any) and there general approach pre-match. (Before I start i'd like to say Im not claiming Im a jack of all trades and Im sure Ive missed key principles of but thats the aim of the thread, to broaden our approach) I'll start of with todays Cricket World Cup match: England v Ireland The very first thing I do is consult the weather forecast. The next thing I do is take a look at the overall stats of the venue using Cric Info. The average run rate per over is 6.12 in the 50 over format over the last 10 years. My interpretation of this is that your average batting team should acheive a score of (6.12 x 50) 306. The highest score over the same time period was 347 and the lowest score in which 50 overs where complete was 169. After looking at the venue, I move onto the teams. England England are currently ranked 5th in the world below Australia, India, South Africa and Sri Lanka. England have been poor in the one day form of recent, the dramatic draw with India coming after poor win against minnows Netherlands all this coming after a poor 6-1 series defeat in Australia (all be it after the Ashes success). In addition to the above, England have only won 3 of there last 16 matches in India. Ireland Currently ranked 11th in the world amongst the minnows. In the last 5 years there average run rate is a poor 4.62. At face value ther won loss record isn't too bad, winning 28 and losing 27 in tehre last 59 matches. On closer inspection you will see that the games are mostly against fellow minnows and every time they have played of the big 5 in the last 5 years they have been beaten, including 3 out of 3 against England. Conclusion Despite England recent poor form, I expect there class should be apparent here and they should win quite convincingly. After consulting the prices on Betfair, England are 1.03 to win and to me not worth investing in. Given Irelands average Run Per over rate, I do not expect them to get anywhere near the venue average of 306. Well thats my research into the game, I know its not the best game review but you get the jist of it. What other principles are there to consider in preparation for a cricket trade/ bet? Im talking about any 'background' work you would carry out before the game starts.
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Re: True Odds Calculator Since posting the spreadsheet a few months ago, Ive made some change with regards the input. You can now copy and paste goals, corners and bookings straight from the football-data spreadsheet and all the calculations are done for you, thus reducing the workload. Donkson, I tend to use stats from the current season and the previous season
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Re: True Odds Calculator
Yes that would be correct. GFA Goals For Average GCA Goals Conceeded Average CFA Corners For Average CCA Corners conceeded average BA Booking average of games there involved inI would just like to say a big thank you as this will greatly help my analysis cant thank you enough i have downloaded the excel sheet a few of the terms I am not sure of when inputting data such as GFA GCA CFA CCA BA I could make an a guess and may jump to the conclusion that they are Goals for average goals conceded average if you could clear this up I would be ever so grateful -
Re: Trading- What am I doing wrong?
I see... Jamie dont take it personally' date=' but it is hard to imagine serious punter with virtually no Excel skills. In my opinion it is impossible to achieve any positive result without ability to record and analyse information. I would urge enyone to spent several hours and went throuh Excel Bible or some other book on Excel. I think the best help anyone could provide to you in such situation is to advise the same - learn some Excel.[/quote'] I more than capable to physically make a sheet on excel, I meant ideas of what to to make notes of throughout any trades/ watching of the markets that i do -
Re: Trading- What am I doing wrong? Yes, something similar to the 'TennisMatchNotes' but for other sports.
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Re: Trading- What am I doing wrong? Thanks for the advice so far, hoping to put it into practice over the weekend. I found this whilst searching through some of the other forums (its the notesheet mentioned halfway down the page): http://www.geekstoy.com/forum/showthread.php?t=756 I was wandering if anybody has anything similar they would be willing to share for football/ cricket/ rugby etc. Failing that, has anybody got any suggestions on how to make a sheet like the one above? Many Thanks
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Re: Trading- What am I doing wrong? I think youve misunderstood/ ive not explained very well :spank im using betfair to trade, I just like to know whats going on withe bookies prices. Any reading tips?
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Afternoon, This morning I tried my hand at trading. I have traded before but didnt find it worthwhile and gave up. When I first dabbled with it I came up with the following rules:
After watching a few videos and reading some sources I have added to the above with following: I will look at any horse racing/ cricket/ tennis/ football that is live and has in-play betting available. *To Qualify as a possible bet, the market must have good liquidity (Around £100,000+ traded) *Market must also have well distributed odds *I will have Oddschecker open in order to compare the available odds *I will target selections at no greater price than 6.0 in order to reduce liabilities. Now, after putting that in to practice I am having an absolute mare :cry Every trade i seem to make goes against me. I am watching the graphs of all participants looking for any movements, Im looking at oddschecker for any movement in prices from the bookmakers. Can anybody give me any advice on how i can improve? RegardsTra-mbling 1. Target profit is 1.5% of bank per day. (Slow and seady wins the race) 2.Identify only 1 horse per race. (No need to run before i can walk) 3. Study the market and Use the graphs to identify a specific patern in a horses prices before entering a trade 4. Back (with a view to lay) only to begin with to limit liabilities 5. Exit point is 3 ticks difference to entry point. (Even if that means a small loss- its better than losing my whole stake) 6. Exit 60 seconds before the off no matter what. -
Re: UEFA Champions League > Wednesday 8th December
My apologies, I've not took goal difference into account :spankMarseille has already qualified for the knockout. Regardless how this game ends Chelsea will top the group and Marseille will remain second. It's better to stay away from these type of games but my prediction is a draw. -
Re: UEFA Champions League > Wednesday 8th December Marseille to bt Chelsea @ 2.64 Betfair Chelsea's recent demise has them level in terms of ability with Marseille on my ratings, I don't think they will be level for long but I also don't feel that the Chelsea turnaround will begin tonight. They are 1-2-3-3-8 in their last 6 domestic games which is poor by anybodys standards and they travel tonight without Cole and Zhirkov which leaves them without a proven left back, which either leaves right back Ferriera or youngster van Aholt to fill their void. Also without Alex and Anelka and alot of youngsters have been named in the squad. This match is a dead rubber for Chelsea as far as qualification goes, they've won the group regardless. There away form of 3-2-3-12-7 again isn't like the Chelsea were used too. Marseille on the other hand are pretty solid at home, posting a 4-3-1-13-6 record domestically. There 6 match domestic form is also solid at 3-2-1-10-4 with 3 clean sheets. The French side also need atleast a point to qualify for the knockout rounds. After a slow start to the group Marseille have won there last 3, albeit against the lesser lights of Zilina (twice) and Spartak.*
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Pretty much as the title suggests. After a bet has either won or lost, how many people analyse their bets I see what went wrong or what went right. Obvisously any systems based on statistics can't really be analysed (except for tweaking any calculations etc) so this is aimed at people who have "methods" with some flexibility. As a startin point I tend to go over my selection process and see if there are any factors I've dismissed previously that could have had a greater effect than I anticipated. What can be Gained by either watching a gane or reading match reports or stats that can help us for future bets?
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Re: Football Coupon
Well it's been over a month since this post, things improved betting wise but not enough to satisfy me. I'm in need o some fresh ideas. Anybody willing to share?Well after a torrid start to the season and a string of losing bets (the latest being win bets on Blackburn to bt Fulham and Southend to bt Morecambe) I thought I'd give this thread a bump to see if anyone can help me get back to winning ways! -
Re: Away Wins - Performance > Points Could you give us a bit more insight into your system? What constitutes a good performance?
Kevin Pullien's "True Odds"
in Betting Systems & Strategy
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Re: Kevin Pullien's "True Odds"
Promoted/ Relegated teams use a seperate rating at the start of the season based on the performance of past promoted/ relegated teams. However, seeing as tho 30 games have now been played, I am basing there strike rate on this seasons form only. The table will be no use to you as you need a formula to work out the percentage of games the home team can be expected to win v away team, which then allows you to produce further percentage chances and odds.