Evertonboy
-
Posts
356 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Posts posted by Evertonboy
-
-
I thought it would be interesting to hear other peoples view on how they approach different sporting events with a view to trade/ bet. For example what stats they consult (if any) and there general approach pre-match. (Before I start i'd like to say Im not claiming Im a jack of all trades and Im sure Ive missed key principles of but thats the aim of the thread, to broaden our approach) I'll start of with todays Cricket World Cup match: England v Ireland The very first thing I do is consult the weather forecast. The next thing I do is take a look at the overall stats of the venue using Cric Info. The average run rate per over is 6.12 in the 50 over format over the last 10 years. My interpretation of this is that your average batting team should acheive a score of (6.12 x 50) 306. The highest score over the same time period was 347 and the lowest score in which 50 overs where complete was 169. After looking at the venue, I move onto the teams. England England are currently ranked 5th in the world below Australia, India, South Africa and Sri Lanka. England have been poor in the one day form of recent, the dramatic draw with India coming after poor win against minnows Netherlands all this coming after a poor 6-1 series defeat in Australia (all be it after the Ashes success). In addition to the above, England have only won 3 of there last 16 matches in India. Ireland Currently ranked 11th in the world amongst the minnows. In the last 5 years there average run rate is a poor 4.62. At face value ther won loss record isn't too bad, winning 28 and losing 27 in tehre last 59 matches. On closer inspection you will see that the games are mostly against fellow minnows and every time they have played of the big 5 in the last 5 years they have been beaten, including 3 out of 3 against England. Conclusion Despite England recent poor form, I expect there class should be apparent here and they should win quite convincingly. After consulting the prices on Betfair, England are 1.03 to win and to me not worth investing in. Given Irelands average Run Per over rate, I do not expect them to get anywhere near the venue average of 306. Well thats my research into the game, I know its not the best game review but you get the jist of it. What other principles are there to consider in preparation for a cricket trade/ bet? Im talking about any 'background' work you would carry out before the game starts.
-
Re: True Odds Calculator Since posting the spreadsheet a few months ago, Ive made some change with regards the input. You can now copy and paste goals, corners and bookings straight from the football-data spreadsheet and all the calculations are done for you, thus reducing the workload. Donkson, I tend to use stats from the current season and the previous season
-
Re: True Odds Calculator
Yes that would be correct. GFA Goals For Average GCA Goals Conceeded Average CFA Corners For Average CCA Corners conceeded average BA Booking average of games there involved inI would just like to say a big thank you as this will greatly help my analysis cant thank you enough i have downloaded the excel sheet a few of the terms I am not sure of when inputting data such as GFA GCA CFA CCA BA I could make an a guess and may jump to the conclusion that they are Goals for average goals conceded average if you could clear this up I would be ever so grateful -
Re: Trading- What am I doing wrong?
I see... Jamie dont take it personally' date=' but it is hard to imagine serious punter with virtually no Excel skills. In my opinion it is impossible to achieve any positive result without ability to record and analyse information. I would urge enyone to spent several hours and went throuh Excel Bible or some other book on Excel. I think the best help anyone could provide to you in such situation is to advise the same - learn some Excel.[/quote'] I more than capable to physically make a sheet on excel, I meant ideas of what to to make notes of throughout any trades/ watching of the markets that i do -
Re: Trading- What am I doing wrong? Yes, something similar to the 'TennisMatchNotes' but for other sports.
-
Re: Trading- What am I doing wrong? Thanks for the advice so far, hoping to put it into practice over the weekend. I found this whilst searching through some of the other forums (its the notesheet mentioned halfway down the page): http://www.geekstoy.com/forum/showthread.php?t=756 I was wandering if anybody has anything similar they would be willing to share for football/ cricket/ rugby etc. Failing that, has anybody got any suggestions on how to make a sheet like the one above? Many Thanks
-
Re: Trading- What am I doing wrong? I think youve misunderstood/ ive not explained very well :spank im using betfair to trade, I just like to know whats going on withe bookies prices. Any reading tips?
-
Afternoon, This morning I tried my hand at trading. I have traded before but didnt find it worthwhile and gave up. When I first dabbled with it I came up with the following rules:
After watching a few videos and reading some sources I have added to the above with following: I will look at any horse racing/ cricket/ tennis/ football that is live and has in-play betting available. *To Qualify as a possible bet, the market must have good liquidity (Around £100,000+ traded) *Market must also have well distributed odds *I will have Oddschecker open in order to compare the available odds *I will target selections at no greater price than 6.0 in order to reduce liabilities. Now, after putting that in to practice I am having an absolute mare :cry Every trade i seem to make goes against me. I am watching the graphs of all participants looking for any movements, Im looking at oddschecker for any movement in prices from the bookmakers. Can anybody give me any advice on how i can improve? RegardsTra-mbling 1. Target profit is 1.5% of bank per day. (Slow and seady wins the race) 2.Identify only 1 horse per race. (No need to run before i can walk) 3. Study the market and Use the graphs to identify a specific patern in a horses prices before entering a trade 4. Back (with a view to lay) only to begin with to limit liabilities 5. Exit point is 3 ticks difference to entry point. (Even if that means a small loss- its better than losing my whole stake) 6. Exit 60 seconds before the off no matter what. -
Re: UEFA Champions League > Wednesday 8th December
My apologies, I've not took goal difference into account :spankMarseille has already qualified for the knockout. Regardless how this game ends Chelsea will top the group and Marseille will remain second. It's better to stay away from these type of games but my prediction is a draw. -
Re: UEFA Champions League > Wednesday 8th December Marseille to bt Chelsea @ 2.64 Betfair Chelsea's recent demise has them level in terms of ability with Marseille on my ratings, I don't think they will be level for long but I also don't feel that the Chelsea turnaround will begin tonight. They are 1-2-3-3-8 in their last 6 domestic games which is poor by anybodys standards and they travel tonight without Cole and Zhirkov which leaves them without a proven left back, which either leaves right back Ferriera or youngster van Aholt to fill their void. Also without Alex and Anelka and alot of youngsters have been named in the squad. This match is a dead rubber for Chelsea as far as qualification goes, they've won the group regardless. There away form of 3-2-3-12-7 again isn't like the Chelsea were used too. Marseille on the other hand are pretty solid at home, posting a 4-3-1-13-6 record domestically. There 6 match domestic form is also solid at 3-2-1-10-4 with 3 clean sheets. The French side also need atleast a point to qualify for the knockout rounds. After a slow start to the group Marseille have won there last 3, albeit against the lesser lights of Zilina (twice) and Spartak.*
-
Pretty much as the title suggests. After a bet has either won or lost, how many people analyse their bets I see what went wrong or what went right. Obvisously any systems based on statistics can't really be analysed (except for tweaking any calculations etc) so this is aimed at people who have "methods" with some flexibility. As a startin point I tend to go over my selection process and see if there are any factors I've dismissed previously that could have had a greater effect than I anticipated. What can be Gained by either watching a gane or reading match reports or stats that can help us for future bets?
-
Re: Football Coupon
Well it's been over a month since this post, things improved betting wise but not enough to satisfy me. I'm in need o some fresh ideas. Anybody willing to share?Well after a torrid start to the season and a string of losing bets (the latest being win bets on Blackburn to bt Fulham and Southend to bt Morecambe) I thought I'd give this thread a bump to see if anyone can help me get back to winning ways! -
Re: Away Wins - Performance > Points Could you give us a bit more insight into your system? What constitutes a good performance?
-
Re: Away Wins - Performance > Points Sounds interesting. Do you take into account strength of opposition or anything like that? Be intresting to have a bit mire insight into your calculations. I would wish you best of luck but I've backed Coventry :lol ... So maybe I'll wish you luck next time :ok
-
Re: A beginners journey... I would also be interested. I have a decent knowledge of excel and basic knowledge of access.
-
Re: Sweden Allsvenskan October 30th-November 1st 2010 Mjallby to beat Atvidaberg. The home side are much stronger than the away here and boast a credible 6-6-2-19-9 home form. They also have 6 match form of 2-3-1-9-5 whilst Atvidabergs 3-2-9-13-30 is pitiful an they go into the game with 2 wins (both at home) 1 draw and 3 defeats conceeding 12 goals in the process.
-
Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? 307 bets +23% yield Thank you very much, I understand now and I am going to incorporate this into my records :nana
-
Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? 307 bets +23% yield Sorry for sounding stupid, but could you explain it further please! Perhaps give an example of say 3 bets? Thanks
-
Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? 307 bets +23% yield Muppet, Firstly, congratulations on your system! I've plunged into the spread betting again recently using my own ratings. After looking back over a few of your earlier posts, I was wandering if you could explain what is meant by 'average error' and 'average absolute error' and how you go about calculating these? Thanks
-
Re: Approaches to cup games? Like what has alreay been said, I think team news is by far the most important as it potentially renders any ratings/ recent form virtually useless. Due to this, I only bet on domestic league games and champions league (and only place bets on the cl after checking team news)
-
Re: Trading, scratching and scalping I've had a dabble at trading in the past, but gave up the ghost. I used the geeks toy an scalped mainly pre-race. I'd watch the markets for a minute or so and use the graphs o TRY to predict where the Market might be heading. Had a little success but as most newbie traders do I ended up getting cocky eg trying to do 2 trades at once, watching a trade come near to my stop-loss and thinking it's ok it'll all turn around and then letting it go in-play. After this I left it alone for a few months and recently came back to it. I did very well at first, again on the horses. However, this time round I also had another idea to try. My aim was to exploit gaps in the Market on the football and try to pinch a few ticks. I had moderate success with this method, especially when I traded on golf for the first time. I couldn't tell you long term how it went tho, I have again give up after falling foul of my old ways :eyes
-
Re: BBOTD - Monday/25/ October Leicester 3.30 EXTRATERRESRIAL Currently rated 87 but has previously won of a Mark of 95. Ran well lto at York despite finishing 7th. The trip is not a problem and has performed on soft- heavy ground in the past. His previous runs have been against horses rated 85-100, 90-100 and 92-104 but today the best he will be up against is rated 89. The drop in grade should help him get back to winning ways
-
Re: Flat racing Monday 25th October Leicester 3.30 EXTRATERRESRIAL Currently rated 87 but has previously won of a Mark of 95. Ran well lto at York despite finishing 7th. The trip is not a problem and has performed on soft- heavy ground in the past. His previous runs have been against horses rated 85-100, 90-100 and 92-104 but today the best he will be up against is rated 89. The drop in grade should help him get back to winning ways
-
Re: True Odds Calculator It's been a month since I posted the spreadsheet, has anybody got any suggestions to improve it? Or just any feedback in general?
Preperation
in Betting Systems & Strategy
Posted
Re: Preperation