Evertonboy
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Posts posted by Evertonboy
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Firstly, I apologise if this is posted in the wrong thread, it just seems the most suitable. Secondly, I know members aren't keen on other members posting their bets after the results are known but intend this to be nothing more than an (hopefully) interesting read and an insight into how I operate. Any bets posted are in no way meant as tips they are my own personal selections after my own research. Any bets posted after the result known are not meant to be boastful and I can assure you that all bets are 100% genuine. Before we begin, a little about me. I am a 22 year old betting shop manager. I began betting the way I do now half way through last season with positive results. You will join my story on Saturday 25th September 2010....
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Re: Tennis trading: laying first set winner Intresting idea, i don't think you'll make a great profit per match but could make a steady profit over time if you develop the right system. I'll be watching with interest, best of luck :hope
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Re: True Odds Calculator Forgot to add, I you open the how many goals/ corners/ bookings tabs, the expectations can be used to squeeze some value on the spreads
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Re: True Odds Calculator Linkage? Can't seem to find the referees!
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Re: True Odds Calculator Thats what I've been doing! What I meant was once all the stats are copied and pasted, I was manually inputting the formula to calculate the averages every time. However since posting I have edited the calculation sheet so it is now using the autosum and count functions. So once the data is transferred to My spreadsheet, it now automatically works out the averages for me. I could link the calculations page to the input page but I don't always do all the donkey work, later on in the season if I'm being lazy I can get all the stats I need from the racing post for live games. Does anybody know a site where i can find all the referees for the weekends games?
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Re: True Odds Calculator What is a screen dump and how do I do that?
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Re: True Odds Calculator Alturl.com/yc52k and click download in the middle
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Re: True Odds Calculator The odds are true to me :D
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Re: True Odds Calculator Link: Http://alturl.com/5xpmj
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I have decided that I am going to make my true odds calculator available for download (I'm at work at the moment so it will be tonight before it's available) Background I have created a spreadsheet that uses formulae that Kevin Pullien (columnist/ tipster for the Racing Post) has developed using thousands of matches worth of data. All the formulae used can be found in the book "a guide to betting on football" by Pullien. I'm not going to go in to detail into how the formulae work, you'll have to buy the book for that.* I have created an Input sheet where all the relevant data used in the formula needs to be entered and a output sheet, where all the calculated odds are presented. There are numerous hidden tabs in which all the formula and workings out for various markets. (these are hidden as you'll never need to edit any of them and all the results are on te output page) So, what can the spreadsheet work out? At the moment, I can find true odds on the following markets; 90 mims betting (12X)) Under/ Over 1.5 Goals Under/ Over 2.5 Goals Under/ Over 3.5 Goals Total booking points Total corners First team to score First player to score Correct score What do I need to input? For all markets to be calculated the following needs to be input on the input page: (For all stats I tend to use data from current and previous season) Both teams WDL record Both teams goals for and against average (home team FA at home and away team FA away) Both teams corners for and against average*(home team FA at home and away team FA away) Both teams bookings for and against average*(home team FA at home and away team FA away) (for teams promoted or relegated the previous season, there is a table showing the values to be entered in WLD section rather than the previous seasons data) As well as this data for both teams, I need to enter the following data about the match; Is it at a neutral venue? Y/ N Referee average bookings per game Average bookings per game for the league Average corners per game for the league (the corners and bookings average are on the input page in a separate table, you simply copy the relevant leagues data) At the moment, I'm getting all the data I need for corners, bookings and the referee from the *football-data website. However, I then have to work out all the averages myself (using the sort function and alot of cutting and pasting). The other data such as WLDFA I'm getting from statto but again I have to work the averages for te FA myself. I feel this area can be improved as it can be quite time consuming. So any suggestions welcome. *I would also appreciate any other suggestions that people may have. (spreadsheet to follow...)
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Re: Football Coupon Well after a torrid start to the season and a string of losing bets (the latest being win bets on Blackburn to bt Fulham and Southend to bt Morecambe) I thought I'd give this thread a bump to see if anyone can help me get back to winning ways!
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Re: The R&F Outlook Football Judgement 'System' Thought I'd try and rejuvenate this thread, same principals as OP only using Betfair now. RL: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 = 10pts (added last stake to the end of the line as last bet won) Today's bet: WERDER BREMEN to bt Spurs 10pts @ 2.1
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Re: Fleet's Football 2010/11 MK II Any chance of explaining the formulaes? (obviously without giving away all your hardwork)
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Re: Football Coupon It's a newspaper out every Tuesday, covers all the top leagues in Europe as well Scandinavia, has various stats and tipsters voicing their opinions, also covers racing if that interests you. Football data is good for your obscure stats like bookings and corners
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Re: Football Coupon Pretty much as described in the opening post, had a good 2nd half of last season (which Is when I started betting how I do now) but had a shocking start to this season. I think in future I'm gonna wait until every team played atleast 2 home and 2 away games. Only usually make 1 or 2 selections per day, I'll only bet on English, Scottish, Scandinavian, French, german, Italian and Spanish leagues and ignore any cups ( except European competitions where both teams are from a league I cover) Statto and football-data.co.uk are the only sites I use, I do buy Racing & Football outlook every week tho which I find extremely usegul
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Re: "Value"- With a Twist The percentage figures and true odds are jst something I threw together, I feel they could be a good base if nothing else. Take the Wawrinka match as an example, both have 33/1 chance of winning the tournament, so as a base for true odds they should both be even money (not taking into account the bookies overround) to reach the next round. From there I could look at various other thongs that could effect the price such as H2H and general form. Obvisously this method wouldn't work in instances where a draw is possible, but could give an indication on who the likely favourite should be etc
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Re: Football Coupon Thanks for the reply. Never heard of soccervista, jut had a quick look and seems to be quite a useful site. Statto is favourite of mine, especially the league tables v bottom/ top half etc. Do you bet in accas or singles? What sort of staking plan do you use?
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Re: Fleet's Football 2010/11 MK II Could you give a bit more insight into what you use to create these ratings? Thanks
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Re: Football Coupon With the weekend almost upon us surely somebody must be willing to share their methods?
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Re: "Value"- With a Twist Maybe to get a true idea of outright prices I could use oddschecker to work out an average and go from there
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Re: "Value"- With a Twist Good point, maybe Betfair prices will be a more accurate guide, at this time tho it's all trial and error. Just to try and add a bit of maths to the method, I've been playing around with some numbers and came up with the following idea. (again these are Betfred prices but it's the idea I want to put out there) US Open Outright Djokovic 7/1 = 12.5% (of the outright book) Monfils 40/1 = 2.4% So the total % of the book taken by Djokovic and Monfils is 14.9. Now, if you take Djokovics 12.5% and divide it by the total % taken, in this case 14.9% we can work out that Djokovic takes 83% of the total % taken by the 2 players and Monfils 17% To work out true odds you divide 100 by the players percentage. In this case; Djokovic 100/83= 1.2 (1/5) Monfils 100/17= 5.88 (just less than 5/1) Obviously this can only be done on events where the draw is not an outcome.
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I read an article in the racing post a few weeks back, it was written by the football tipster Kevin Pullien. He said something that got me thinking. The article was about the City and Liverpool game, and revolved around the fact that at the time Man Citys title odds where around half the price of Liverpools but the 90 minute prices didn't really reflect that and in his opinion Man City represented value. So, I re-read my Confessions of an Odds compiler book to see if I missed anything first time. I came across an interesting point, which is basically some firms prices are all about margins and don't take into account various other odds that could be related. My next plan of action is to seek out "value" bets in the above way and hopefully build a profitable system around it. To get started, the basic principle will be; A bet is deemed value when the Match prices are out of line with the events outright Market. What is deemed out of line will not be based on a strict value or percentage at te moment, it will just be judgement. An example: Prices with Betfred US Open Ouright : Wawrinka 33/1. Youzhny 33/1 Match price: Wawrinka 5/4. Youzhny 8/13 As you can see, both players have just shy of 3% chance of winning the tournament outright according to Betfred, yet there match prices don't reflect this. Obviously the match prices will be based around H2H and other variables so that it is why I shall only be trialling it for the minute. Any thoughts or suggestions?
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Re: Football Coupon Over 50 views and no replies?? Come on guys spread the knowledge!
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With over 50 games in britian alone on a Saturday, I was interested to know, where do people start with there coupons?? Personally, I start by getting my copy if the RFO and turning to there true odds page. Next I highlight any team at a bigger price on the coupon. Once I've been threw all the leagues I'll go back to the highlighted teams and scrutinise various things (home/ away form, recent form, outlook index/ trend, team news, any other notable aspects like change of manager) and if I'm happy that the true odds quoted in the RFO are accurate enough, then the said team warrants a bet. I bet mainly in singles and sometimes in small accas depending on prices. Also, I look at the weekend s live games (only domestic) and take data from either the racin post or football-data.co.uk and price up various markets using a spreadsheet I created based on Kevin Pulliens guide to football betting. I then compare my prices to the bookmakers prices and sift out any value bets. Any thoughts? Anyone willing to share their ideas?
"One Man, his paper and his laptop" My Betting Diary
in Glory Hunters
Posted
Re: "One Man, his paper and his laptop" My Betting Diary Saturday 25th September 2010 I awoke this morning in a positive mood- it was the start of my weekend off and a day down the boozer with the lads lay ahead. My mood quickly changed tho after a punishing gym session with a friend left my legs in tatters. The mornings hard work was quickly erased as we settled down in the local for Man City and Chelsea. I had 1.5 pts on Chelsea 1-0 and 2-0 out of interest as I feel the bookies got the odds bang on for this game to warrant sufficient investment. A dull game was made worse after the 3pt loss in total. I was not to be discouraged tho and felt that Notts Forest where to big to be missed at 2.3 to pick up their first home win of the season against a Swansea side who struggle on their travels. I went in all guns blazing with 12pts on Forest. Similarly, I felt obliged to back Coventry at 2.1 to beat the then bottom of the league Preston. Again 12pts was wagered. With the bets in place, I sat back and simultaneosly watched Soccer Saturday and Liverpool vs Sunderland, albeit, the latter with italian commentary. After some persuading, the bar staff finally turned off the italian commentary an switched the commentary to soccer Saturday just in time for Forest to take lead. The joy was short lived however as I learned Coventry had fell behind. The fortunes of my 2 teams continued in opposite directions as Forest went on to win 3-0 whilst Coventry went down 2-1. Notts Forest victory ensured a 15.6pt return which wiped out the losses from Chelsea and Coventry and left me with 0.6pt profit. But hey, profits profit. After scanning betfair (thank god for betfair mobile) I decided that Valencia at a shade over evens where value to pick up an away win at Sporting Gijon. 14pts was sufficient enough. A text came through of my brother, an avid rugby fan, that Kevin Sinfield may represent a decent bet for first try In the televised play off game between Leeds and Wigan as he's available at 25s and playing out of position at scrum half- whatever that means. Like most betters, I told anyone who would listen about this little nugget of info without actually backing him myself. Imagine my horror as the commentator announced that Sinfield converted his own try. Why oh why didn't I back him?? As I drowned my sorrows over the missed wager I was rejuvenated to find out that Valencia held a 2-0 lead inside 10 minutes. 80 minutes later the Valencia score was confirmed to ensure I finished the day with a 15 point profit. I couldn't help but think that whilst a 15 point profit is good, a 50 point profit from a Sinfield wager wouldn't half of boosted the resources....