Evertonboy
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Posts posted by Evertonboy
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Re: A beginners journey... I would also be interested. I have a decent knowledge of excel and basic knowledge of access.
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Re: Sweden Allsvenskan October 30th-November 1st 2010 Mjallby to beat Atvidaberg. The home side are much stronger than the away here and boast a credible 6-6-2-19-9 home form. They also have 6 match form of 2-3-1-9-5 whilst Atvidabergs 3-2-9-13-30 is pitiful an they go into the game with 2 wins (both at home) 1 draw and 3 defeats conceeding 12 goals in the process.
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Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? 307 bets +23% yield Thank you very much, I understand now and I am going to incorporate this into my records :nana
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Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? 307 bets +23% yield Sorry for sounding stupid, but could you explain it further please! Perhaps give an example of say 3 bets? Thanks
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Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? 307 bets +23% yield Muppet, Firstly, congratulations on your system! I've plunged into the spread betting again recently using my own ratings. After looking back over a few of your earlier posts, I was wandering if you could explain what is meant by 'average error' and 'average absolute error' and how you go about calculating these? Thanks
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Re: Approaches to cup games? Like what has alreay been said, I think team news is by far the most important as it potentially renders any ratings/ recent form virtually useless. Due to this, I only bet on domestic league games and champions league (and only place bets on the cl after checking team news)
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Re: Trading, scratching and scalping I've had a dabble at trading in the past, but gave up the ghost. I used the geeks toy an scalped mainly pre-race. I'd watch the markets for a minute or so and use the graphs o TRY to predict where the Market might be heading. Had a little success but as most newbie traders do I ended up getting cocky eg trying to do 2 trades at once, watching a trade come near to my stop-loss and thinking it's ok it'll all turn around and then letting it go in-play. After this I left it alone for a few months and recently came back to it. I did very well at first, again on the horses. However, this time round I also had another idea to try. My aim was to exploit gaps in the Market on the football and try to pinch a few ticks. I had moderate success with this method, especially when I traded on golf for the first time. I couldn't tell you long term how it went tho, I have again give up after falling foul of my old ways :eyes
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Re: BBOTD - Monday/25/ October Leicester 3.30 EXTRATERRESRIAL Currently rated 87 but has previously won of a Mark of 95. Ran well lto at York despite finishing 7th. The trip is not a problem and has performed on soft- heavy ground in the past. His previous runs have been against horses rated 85-100, 90-100 and 92-104 but today the best he will be up against is rated 89. The drop in grade should help him get back to winning ways
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Re: Flat racing Monday 25th October Leicester 3.30 EXTRATERRESRIAL Currently rated 87 but has previously won of a Mark of 95. Ran well lto at York despite finishing 7th. The trip is not a problem and has performed on soft- heavy ground in the past. His previous runs have been against horses rated 85-100, 90-100 and 92-104 but today the best he will be up against is rated 89. The drop in grade should help him get back to winning ways
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Re: True Odds Calculator It's been a month since I posted the spreadsheet, has anybody got any suggestions to improve it? Or just any feedback in general?
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Re: BBOTD Thursday Lud 3.45 SKYE BUT N BEN Won a selling hurdle Lto at Ludlow over today's going and distance. Officially a step up in class but will be facing horses rated similarly to those he beat at Ludlow and should defy a 7lb rise in rating. Tony McCoy takes over in the saddle from Jamie Moore which can only help. Currently priced around 4/1 (my first tip in this section )
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Re: Jump Racing ~ Thu 21st October Lud 3.45 SKYE BUT N BEN Won a selling hurdle Lto at Ludlow over today's going and distance. Officially a step up in class but will be facing horses rated similarly to those he beat at Ludlow and should defy a 7lb rise in rating. Tony McCoy takes over in the saddle from Jamie Moore which can only help. Currently priced around 4/1 (my first tip in this section :hope)
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Re: Iphone browsing Would it be possible for an admin to activate this on Tapatalk? Greatly appreciated if possible.
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Re: Total Corners. Weakness Of Bookmakers. Brit, Have you never considered betting on different corner markets, such as 0-9 corners, 10-12 and 13+? I find these prices are often more attractive. At the minute your betting at odds on, so you will need a pretty good strike rate of say 60% to make a decent profit. Also at the mo every win will only return you around £90 whilst every loss will cost you £100
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Re: The Form Book What exactly is the chasers and hurdlers annual? I've never heard of it! I think I'd be more suited to a publication that details each horses race history for the season just gone, rather than every race. For example, it would have kauto star, then with the horses full formbook comments etc for every race that season. Does anything like this exist? I do currenty use the RP website and they have something like this online. Does anybody know of a paper version?
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Re: The Form Book Thanks for the reply, you say yo never really used them, but when you did use them how was it? Like for the new jumps season, did u just have a race card in front of you and look at the past few runs of each runner?? Or did you go through the whole season and try to find horses to follow?? Or a bit of both?
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Afernoon folks, this is my first venture into this neck of the woods! I'm after some advice, I am looking to purchase the Jumps Fom book from last season. Has anybody got any advice how best to use it and make it worthwile? Many thanks.
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Re: Tra-mbling Thanks for the reply. I have read through the articles you linked and also several others I came across on the site. Very useful indeed. I now feel as tho I understand the graphs and probable movements of the market alot better. I also stumbled across a money management article on the sight which I feel will not only help my trading, but revolutionise the way I stake other bets that I'm not going to trade. I'll probably try trading on the England game tonight and try put a few things into practice.
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Tra-mbling A few months ago I dabbled with trading on betfair using The Geeks Toy. I dove in head first and as you might expect lost (literally) a couple of quid. This small loss encouraged me to do a bot of research into trading. In the end I came up with the following set of Trading Rules; (horse racing only at this point) 1. Target profit is 1.5% of bank per day. (Slow and seady wins the race) 2.Identify only 1 horse per race. (No need to run before i can walk) 3. Study the market and Use the graphs to identify a specific patern in a horses prices before entering a trade 4. Back (with a view to lay) only to begin with to limit liabilities 5. Exit point is 3 ticks difference to entry point. (Even if that means a small loss- its better than losing my whole stake) 6. Exit 60 seconds before the off no matter what. What I found was that I was having a bit more success, I wasn't making a profit but I wasn't losing either (so a bit of a pointless exercise really!) and eventually give up the ghost. That is, until now. I have come up with a new method that will hopefully prove more profitable than the last. This time around, I will be trading on any live sporing event that I am watching and trading a variety of inplay markets, my method is as follows; 1. Initial bank shall only be £10, I'm still relatively new to trading so I'm not willing to risk losing more than that at the moment. I'm still learning and I feel with trading you have to "learn on the job" so to speak. 2. Initial stake shall be 50% of bank. Remember my bank is only small and should I encounter any losing trade, I will not lose my whole stake Thats the financial side of my plan, now to the actual selection method. 3. I aim to exploit any gaps in the Market. For example, the selection is available to back at 15.0 and to lay at 20.0. There is a gap of 5 ticks. My aim is to get a bet matched at the higher end of this gap, ideally at 20.0 or 19.0 4. Once I get a bet matched, I will then seek to lay the selection off at lower in the gap, ideally at 15.0 or 16.0. Obviously this relies on me getting the*original back bet matched. This is where the gamble comes into it, the success of my system is relying on the price falling rather than rising. 5. I will incorporate a stop loss, it will not be a set amount, it will vary depending on the back price taken.* 6. to begin with, I will trade on 1 Market per game/ race to try and keep things nice and simple. 7. After the event as finished, I will look back over all the trades made to see what worked and what didn't. (forgot to add, all horse racing trades will still be exited 60 secs before the race starts no matter what) I will run this for a trial period before hopefully becoming confident enough to Increase my bank (and of course restructure my finance plan!!) and refine my methods to make me a steady profit. I know this kind of system will not make me a millionaire over night but hopefully it can gradually increase my profit in the long term. Any advice anybody can give me? With regards point 5, could Somebody advise me as to various stop losses I could use? I'm struggling with this part as obviously a the difference in value on a 2 tick loss on a 2.2 that drifted to a 2.24 is less than a 20.0 drifting to 22.0! All help and (constructive) criticism will be taken on board.
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After searching All corners of Europe tonight I've found no value that warrants my interest. So, I have decided to give Sporting Indexs aggregate markets a bash. I became familiar with the spreads earlier in the year when Sporting Index first offered the £100 free bet. Up to now, I have only ever dabbled on the total goals/ corners/ bookings of individual games tho. But tonight I've decided to give the total goals aggregate Market for tonights champions league games a whirl. The method I have used is nothing fancy, I have simply added up the goal expectation in the RFO and compared them to the spread. (for the individual games I bet on I work out this myself) For tonights games, I have bought total goals 0.5pts @ 21.2 Anybody had any previous experience or any thoughts on this type of Market?
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Re: "One Man, his paper and his laptop" My Betting Diary Monday 27th September continued As the evening progressed, Emmerdale had been and gone and Coronation Street was in full flow as kick off time approached. I was cautiously optimistic that York would see off Darlington and boost the betting bank. As the first of Coronation Streets to episodes concluded I franticly checked the scores before Eastenders kicked in. 0-0 at the 15 minute Mark. I glanced over the scores from from earlier in the evening in Scandinavia I was relieved to see that a couple of teams I had interest had failed to win. As the 9.30 finish time approached, York had still not managed to fond a breakthrough and it was still 0-0 as I set off for home. I arrived home and the 0-0 finish was confirmed meaning a 17pt loss on the day. A 2nd 0-0 in 2 days left me frustrated. I logged onto the Paddy Power and found no mention of there 0-0 money back specials they used to do- so I was glad I'd used Betfair and not missed out on 31pts worth of refunds over the past 2 days. I settled for the night after Watching the exploits of Will, Simon, Jay, Neil, Tara and a "blowjob giving American landmark" with renewed hope as the RFO will be in the shops before work In the morning as I prepare to take it to the old enemy with the full set of football league fixtures and the champions league to look forward to tomorrow
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Re: "One Man, his paper and his laptop" My Betting Diary Monday 27th September Somehow, I managed to drag myself out of bed for. The prospect of a 12 hour shift on a Monday is not something I would wish upon my worst enemy. After setting the shop up and completing the weekly paperwork, *I settled down with a nice brew and the shop copy of the racing post. All that was missin was a "do no disturb" sign for the door. Luckily enough, today was one of the quoted mornings. I was however disappointed that Kevin Pulliens article was emitted from today's post. His articles always make for an enjoyable, informative read. I then turned to my RFO to see if any games today represent any value. Several games from Finland to Sweden to Norway where brought to my attention. Upon closer inspection it was a game from the Blue Square Premier that warranted my interest. I felt York where a good bet at 2.26 to dispose of Darlington who have drawn 5 of there 6 away games against lower opposition. Yorks home record over last season and so far this has been impressive so I wagered 17pts on the home win. Being surrounded by horse and dog racing all day, 5 days a week, 52 weeks a year means that I don't really take an interest in it. Maybe Cheltenham and a few of the more prestigious meetings I may get involved. But your class 6 all weather racing from Kempton Park is not for me.* Periodically throughout the day, I checked to see how the odds of York where fairing, they peaked at 2.34 before settling down at around 2.3. After the madness of the afternoon racing has been and gone, a relatively trouble free day is nearly over. with just a few hours remaining, it's time to settle down for the soaps (it's ok this no night racing malarky) before the frantic score checking begins....
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Re: "One Man, his paper and his laptop" My Betting Diary I'd be happy to provide any screenshts requested
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Re: "One Man, his paper and his laptop" My Betting Diary Sunday 26th September As I woke in my trading office- or my bedroom as it is otherwise known, I was relatively fresh after yesterdays exploits. After a short walk to the shop for my Sunday copy of the Racing Post, I settled down in my office ready to price up the very kick off between Bolton and Man Utd. After consulting betfair it seemed that once again their was no value. I decided not to have a wager in this game and instead turned my attention to the foreign football on offer in my RFO. After extensive research, 14pts was wagered on both Sampdoria and Elfsborg who where at home to a bottom of the table Udinese and away at bottom of the table Brommapojkama respectively. With these bets in place I priced up Wolves v Aston Villa. The only value to be found was over a few correct scores, so I dutched 7pts over Aston Villa 1-0, 2-0, 2-1, 3-0, 3-1.* After Stewart Downing had gave Villa the lead I was quietly confident that I'd be collecting after 90 minutes. A 2nd Villa goal would have calmed the nerves knowing that should there be a 3rd goal, I'd still be on for winning. A Wolves equaliser lead to a nervey ending but Emile Heskey came to My rescue. How many of you can say that? The elation of Heskeys late winner was followed by dismay after I learned that Elfsborg had lead, then fell behind before drawing with*Brommapojkama and after Sampdoria had a dour 0-0 draw with Udinese I was looking at an 18pt loss on the day so far.* Not one to be disheartend, I got back in the saddle and had 13pts on Espanyol to beat Osasuna. With the home side 1-0 up and the away team down to 10 men at half time my confidence was restored. With 3 more televised games I got to work on pricing them out, hoping to capitalise on any mistake s the bookies made. Once again there was little to no value. Espanyol held on to give me a slight profit on the day. With this I invested 7pts on Seville to win 1-0, 2-0, 2-1, 3-0, 3-1,3pts over Athletico Madrid to win 1-0, 2-0 and 3 points over iaquinta and acquafresca to score the first goal in Juventus vs Cagliari. What happened next left me livid on 2 counts. The first , whilst innocently checking the scores to see what was going on around the footballing world, I stumbled across Hercules 2-0 Seville. Firstly I asked myself, why isn't this on sky- when I checked it was only the 2nd half being shown. If I knew this, I wouldn't have placed a bet. Secondly, the fact that they where 2-0 down meant I no longer had an intrest when sky finally got round to showing the 2nd half.* Anyway, after a few minutes contemplating what had just happened, I decided to move on and settle down for Juventus. Krasnics early goal ended all interest in that game I quickly switched to Atletico Madrid v Zaragoza. With Madrid leading 1-0 I was heading for a small profit on the day. I did not anticipate the trouble that lay ahead. The referee gave what can only be described as a ludicrous back pass decision and I was resigned to losing my money. After a flurry of yellow cards and shambolic attempt at a free kick I breathed a sigh of relief. Moments later the game descended into chaos as Atletico where reduced to 10 men after another ludicrous refereeing decision (come back Stuart Atwell. All is forgiven). After a nailbiting finale Atletico held on to there 1-0 and meant that I finished the day in profit. 2 days in profit, can't complain. But after backing 3 sides who where playing bottom of the league I can only dream what could have been. What should of been. Not forgetting of course the Sinfield fiasco.... Oh well the weekends over, and it's back to reality tomorrow. A nice earl start is just what the doctor ordered. Not.
Bairn's Value Away Wins
in Betting Systems & Strategy
Posted
Re: Away Wins - Performance > Points Sounds interesting. Do you take into account strength of opposition or anything like that? Be intresting to have a bit mire insight into your calculations. I would wish you best of luck but I've backed Coventry :lol ... So maybe I'll wish you luck next time :ok