Evertonboy
-
Posts
356 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Posts posted by Evertonboy
-
-
I would like to introduce you all to my new venture. Playing the role of the bookmaker. First, a little bit about myself. I currently work for One of the big four bookies as a shop manager. I have been in the industry for 3 years. In this 3 years I have picked up some valuable knowledge that I aim to capitilise on in the future. I have also read Nick Pulliens guide to betting on football as well as his articles in the racing post. Now that yu know a little about me, I'll explain my new experimental venture... I aim to capitalise on 2 things. The bookmakers and the fact that they have to lay a price for virtually everything sports related, where as me, the punter come bookmaker can pick and choose what I lay a price on through betfair. And second, the punters stupidity to accept unfair prices on certain events. At the moment, I will solely be concentrating on football matches. Like I was saying, I have read nick pulliens book. This inspired me to use his formulas and create a spreadsheet to work out 'true odds' on things such as total goals, corners and bookings. Once I have input the data and created the fair odds. I will look at the lay prices on betfair to see if any outcome on that particular Market is being laid at unfair odds, then I too, will lay that price. Eg under 2.5 goals: calculated value odds of 2.2, actual lay odds on betfair 1.8 then it becomes a lay. At the minute I'm going to paper trail it (to see if the fomulas are accurate and Which are most profitable etc). I would also like to add a loss recovery mechanism such as laying 2 outcomes to gaurentee a little income regardless. Obviously depends on how many possible outcomes there are. Any suggestions?
-
Re: Daily targets I find that using the reverse labourche system with a checkout works best for me. My usual target is to double my bank e.g. RL sequence 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Starting bank 28pts (1+2+3+4+5+6+7) my aim will be to gain about 30pts profit before starting again. I bet mainly on odds against value bets in football. However I do have a separate bank (with smaller stakes) based on the same principles for horse racing
-
Re: The R&F Outlook Football Judgement 'System' Well Im hoping to keep it going throughout the summer as the RFO produce all the ratings and true odds that I use for Scandanavian and international football and then see how it fares through a full English/ Scottish campaign. I have only been doing it since late january and made a tidy profit (easy to say after the event i know) so the signs are promising
-
Re: The R&F Outlook Football Judgement 'System' HAMILTON to bt Kilmarnock 9.00 @ evens WON :clap Starting bank: 100 Current bank: 109 Total staked: 9 Number of bets: 1 Winning bets: 1 Losing bets: 0 Strike rate: 100% Yield: 100% Profit (or Loss): +9.00 No further bets this weekend
-
Re: PGA Golf Ratings Thanks for the welcome and response, and believe it or not, as simple as the principles in tour methods seem (such as check the stats for previous winners) hadn't even crossed my mind! Thanks for pointers and I'll definatley be following them ;)
-
Re: The R&F Outlook Football Judgement 'System' If anyones interested only 1 selection for the weekend: HAMILTON to bt Kilmarnock 9pts @ evens (WH) (there could be better odds available but i'll only be using William Hill coupons) RL: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 (Stake 9) Starting bank: 100 Current bank: 91 Total staked: 9 Number of bets: 1 Winning bets: Losing bets: Strike rate: Yield: Profit (or Loss):
-
I'd like to share with you all how I go about making my selections on my coupon. Using the following strategy I have managed to make steady profits for the last few months. Before I start I'd like to point out that I bet mainly in singles (never more than doubles) and my staking plan is the reverse laboursche with a checkout. 1. First and foremost you need a copy of the RFO and your football coupon 2. Use RFOs 'True Odds' section and highlight any team on the coupon whose price is greater than the RFO true odds. The teams are shortlisted as the value bets that warrant closer scrutiny Now, this is where the judgement part comes in. I have do not have any set rules that I follow or rule any team completely out because of 1 thing or another. The factors I consider are; 1. The selection and opponents index rating. This is the RFOs own ratings system that represents each teams current strength. 2. The selection and opponents trend figure. This is either a +/- figure indicating whether a team is improving or declining over the past 6 months or so 3. The selection and opponents home and away record 4. Recent form. Not just WLD but take into account the above 3 points o recent opponents etc 5. Finally team news once I have checked all the above points im usually only confident about a couple of selections. It's down to personal preference, judgement and a bit of look along the way. Any feedback/ suggestions welcome.
-
Re: PGA Golf Ratings Hello there, this is my first post in here so be gentle. Firstly, I am not one for other peoples systems as such, I prefer to do the work myself. However, I've been trying (and failing) to cracK the world of golf betting. I'd be intrested to hear where you get your stats from (such as putting, driving, scrambling etc. as well as what course requires certain skills more than smothers etc) any help woul be greatly appreciated and good luck.
Me, The Bookmaker
in Betting Systems & Strategy
Posted
Re: Me, The Bookmaker Sorry about the delay. And thanks for the heads up about football-data.co.uk. I have spent the past day tweaking my spreadsheet to match betfairs goals/ corners and bookings matches as well as creating a sheet that can translate the football-data spreadsheet so it suits my own. I am going to paper trail it until the end of the season and possibly use it during the world cup (depending if I can get my hands on any data) Any more suggestions?