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Evertonboy

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    2011 Boxing Thread

    in Boxing & UFC Betting

    Posted

    Re: 2011 Boxing Thread Amir Kahn 24(17)-1(1)-0 v Paul McCloskey 22(12)-0-0 I'll start of by giving my opinion on the records of both fighters through analysing boxrec. Firstly, Kahn has an impressive 71% knockout ratio, he also has impressive skills as looking back he has barely lost a round throughout his career in his fights that have gone the distance, the exception being his last fight agianst Maidana. He of course has the 1 bad knockout loss on his record and has been in trouble in the past, most notably in the tenth round of his last fight against Maidana. He is proven World level fighter (atleast to compared to his opponent)- this is his 5th fight at this level. Boxrec currently rate his last 5 opponents 4-16-122-16-41 in there respective divisions. Kahn is rated number 2 to Timothy Bradley. McCloskey is unbeaten in his professional career boasting a 54% knockout ration including stoppage wins over his last 5 opponents. He is currently the European champion, however he has only had 3 fights at the level. According to boxrec he was put on the floor against Chill (1KO on his record) in his early days, it does not explain the situation nor can i find a video, so I would appreciate if somebody could fill in the blanks regarding this please? Boxrec ranks his last 5 opponents 70-46-133-161-50. He is of course, a southpaw. Summary Boxing is all about levels, and Kahn clearly has fought the higher level and has bags of big fight experience. However, you always come back to the question marks over his chin. He claims he proved he has a chin by survivng that torrid 10th v Maidana, In my opinion he proved he has the heart but he was on dream street for most of the round and had he been the challenger he would of been stopped. But thats just my opinion. McCloskey might not be the biggest puncher, but he's a southpaw and he's awkard. I dont think he has the skills to outbox Kahn but I think he could trouble him at some point. Given that McCloskey has never been in trouble - I am willing to back him to survive 12 rounds. Recommended Bet: LAY Amir Kahn TKO, KO and DQ @ 1.47 or for those without Betfair, BACK McCloskey KO, TKO and DQ @ 10/1 (Boylesports) and BACK Kahn on points @ 100/30 (Bet365, Tote, Paddy Power)

    Kevin Pullien's "True Odds"

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Re: Kevin Pullien's "True Odds"

    Skills The link to the original spreadsheet is longer working in your True Odds Calculator thread. Would you mind upping it again? I've PM'd you my email address if it's easier to just email it across.
    I'll not be making the spreadsheet available at this point

    Kevin Pullien's "True Odds"

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Re: Kevin Pullien's "True Odds" Midweek (Ive included all leagues) mw.jpg Again most likely winners highlighted in yellow, best chance draws in green. As a bit of fun, partly because Im bored in work Im going to try and combine the match odds and overs/ markets to try and predict some correct scores. Premier League Liverpool 1-1 Man City Champions League Man Utd 2-1 Chelsea Championship Barnsley 0-0 Qpr Derby 1-2 Leeds Doncaster 2-0 Preston Ipswich 2-0 Middlesbrough Leicester 3-0 Crystal Palace Millwall 2-1 Bristol City Nottm Forest 2-0 Burnley Pompey 2-0 Coventry Scunthorpe 1-3 Reading Sheff Utd 1-2 Cardiff Swansea 1-0 Hull Watford 1-2 Norwich League One Brighton 3-0 Dagenham Leyton orient 2-1 Carlisle Rochdale 1-1 Southampton Walsall 1-1 Brentford Yeovil 1-0 Notts County League Two Bury 3-0 Burton

    Kevin Pullien's "True Odds"

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Re: Kevin Pullien's "True Odds" Quick round up so far: Most likely winners highlighted the winner in 7 out of 9 games, with one game that didnt - Backburn being the shortest price draw along with Liverpool/ Man City tonight. The Unders/ Overs didn't fair as well but still highlighted 5 out of 9 winners.

    Jumps Racing - Friday 8th April 2011 - Including Aintree

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Jumps Racing - Friday 8th April 2011 - Including Aintree

    The highest rated horse in the race - be aware tho that this rating is based on his runs over 2m-2m1' date=' very poor performance last time out at the festival including another jumping mistake, prefer the ground abit softer. I'd rather side with genuine 2 and half miler. Beaten in this race last time he tried this distance 3 years ago. Needs to prove his stamina at the trip before Id consider backing him[/quote'] Maybe I'll back him for Next year's Ryanair now he's proven his stamina ;) Edit: In my opinion Tartak would have finished alot closer (Im not saying he would of won - or even got anywhere near Master Minded) if he didnt walk through a few fences

    Jumps Racing - Friday 8th April 2011 - Including Aintree

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Jumps Racing - Friday 8th April 2011 - Including Aintree

    Going for Master Minded at the prices. Probably not thinking with my head, with the ground not ideal, and seemingly not at his best. Just hope this track and trip can get him jumping perfectly. Mad Max is worth an e/w bet imo. Forget his Cheltenham runs and 111111313 is his career record. Smashed Somersby over c&d last year. Ground and trip in his favour.
    Quite abit to find tho on Official Ratings Edit: Also beat 20 lengths at Ascot a few starts ago by Master Minded/ Somersby - although that was over the champion chase distance.

    Jumps Racing - Friday 8th April 2011 - Including Aintree

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Jumps Racing - Friday 8th April 2011 - Including Aintree

    Who are ye going for in the next lads? Master Minded for me.Can't ignore 6/1
    The highest rated horse in the race - be aware tho that this rating is based on his runs over 2m-2m1, very poor performance last time out at the festival including another jumping mistake, prefer the ground abit softer. I'd rather side with genuine 2 and half miler. Beaten in this race last time he tried this distance 3 years ago. Needs to prove his stamina at the trip before Id consider backing him

    Jumps Racing - Friday 8th April 2011 - Including Aintree

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Jumps Racing - Friday 8th April 2011 - Including Aintree 2.30 Aintree I've taken 2 in this race at a combined price of 6/5 Quito de la Roque Trainers form can not be judge as only had 2 runners in the last week, Staying on well in 3m races (despite idling latest) to suggest he'll get stay the extra furlong, possibly prefer softer ground but breeding indicates he shouldn't be troubled by the going he faces today, running well and recent form bodes well as he beat a horse who was 2nd to Boston's Angel who went on to win at the festival. One of the highest rated in the race and should go close. Wayward Prince Trainer in good form, course/ distance no problems. Enjoys good or good-soft ground, ran well at Cheltenham last time out when beaten by Boston's Angel, previously won a Grade 2 and a good chance on official ratings 3.05 Aintree I've taken 3 in this race at a combined price of about 6/5 Albertas Run Trainers form is pretty average - as is most others in the race, proven at course and distance, suited by the ground, performed well at this festival in the past, proven class, up there with the highest rated in this race and coming off the back of a fantastic win at Cheltenham, won the race last year after again winning a the festival. Kalahari King Again the trainer form is nothing special, another suited by the course, distance and going, proven class, proven to perform in the spring time, coming off the back of a good performance when 2nd behind Albertras Run at the festival and should go close again. Tartak Trainer arguably in better form than any other in the race, shoulf be suited by the course, distance and going won't be a problem. Loves running in the spring time and won a couple of Grade 2's in the past and still has a bit to find on ratings, given the form of the trainer tho I give him an outside chance so he's included in my staking plan.

    Kevin Pullien's "True Odds"

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Re: Kevin Pullien's "True Odds"

    Two questions: Promoted and relegated teams rating would be screwed because they would have many wins or losses in a respectively lower or higher league. Did you find a solution for that? Could you post the table which shows at what strike ratings which match probabilities should be?
    Promoted/ Relegated teams use a seperate rating at the start of the season based on the performance of past promoted/ relegated teams. However, seeing as tho 30 games have now been played, I am basing there strike rate on this seasons form only. The table will be no use to you as you need a formula to work out the percentage of games the home team can be expected to win v away team, which then allows you to produce further percentage chances and odds.

    Kevin Pullien's "True Odds"

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Re: Kevin Pullien's "True Odds"

    Hey there can you explain the table are the ones highlighted the ones that match your odds calculator
    The selections highlighted are just the most likely winner, note on the Liverpool game there both just as likely to win as each each other. I'll be back later to post any value picks

    Kevin Pullien's "True Odds"

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Morning, After posting my selections in the Midweek section of this forum, a few people have been asking about how I come up with my prices. So, here goes... Firstly, people may be interested in reading this similar thread: http://forum.punterslounge.com/f21/pullein-power-95650/ and my old thread on "true odds": http://forum.punterslounge.com/f21/true-odds-calculator-107725/ For those who don't know of Kevin Pullien, he is a respected Racing Post tipster. Last year I bought a his book "A Definitive Guide to Betting on Football" and produced a spreadsheet based on his calculations in order to work out the "true" chance of certain events in football matches. For this thread tho, I will concentrate on his match odds only. How I Determine The Odds The first step is to work out each team in questions profile. To do this we need to calculate their "Strike Rate". In order to calculate this you need each teams WDL record. Then using the following formula you can determine their Strike Rate: (W+(D*0.5)/(W+D+L))*100. For example, Everton based on this seasons form have a strike rate of 50% (9+14*.05)/(9+14+8)*100. In his book Kevin suggests that he has the best results using around 60 games, I tend to use data from the current season as well as last season. Once you have the strike rate from both teams, you then need to compare the results of games with similar strike rates. Don't worry - Kevin has done all the work for you and has compiled a table based on thousands of games over the last 10 years or so. This then gives you the "true" chance of the home win, away win and the draw. As Kevin states in his book, nobody can predict the future, but in his opinion, the past is the best guide to the future. He does this by using past games between similar teams (strike rate wise) as a guide. For any more info, I suggest you buy the book :lol My intention is to post my odds for the remaining Premier League games and firstly highlight the most likely winner, and if I have time any value picks. (And possibly paper-trail most likely winner/ value pick combo) Any questions/ thoughts, please ask.

    Notes

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Notes Basically I can read the form, but have no idea what to look for to point towards what might be a winner in a future/ antepost race. What constitutes "running well"? How do people identify that potential "Gold Cup horse" months before the race? Hope this helps :unsure

    Notes

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    With the flat season still in its infancy, I'd like to try and start my own horse racing notebook with horses to keep an eye out of for as the season progresses. Only problem is, I don't really know what to look for. That may sound strange to you, but I feel I can read form and read race results etc. What kind of horse should be going into my notebook? What race data should I record? What constitutes an eye catching performance? I need a few ideas to form a starting point, any help would be greatly appreciated.

    Grand National Thread

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Grand National Thread Morning, With a field of 40 runners I thought it was the perfect time to try out my race profiling method. (Taken from Racecaller.com)

    Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse: · Aged 8 to 11 (9 or 10 especially) · Carrying 10-11 or more · Carrying no more than a stone higher than bottom weight · Officially rated 140 or higher · Irish bred · Won no more than once this season · Won a listed or graded chase worth 29K+ · Won over 3M+ · Run 4 to 6 times since September & run since 15th February · Run in at least 10 chases (winning 3 to 5) · Posted an RPR of 140+ in one of last 3 chase starts · Run over hurdles in 2011 · Previously run over National fences · Placed in an Irish/Welsh/Scottish/Aintree National · Trained in Ireland
    Using the above, Ive been a little flexible so perhaps not all the trends above have been met, I have the following shortlist and made the following notes: Big Fella Thanks Goes on good ground or softer, performed well at Aintree, stayed on last time out, jumps ok - UR mistakes can be forgiven, likes a big field, won off 146 against similar rated horses, 4th last year of 146 but 2lb lighter, 6th year before of 149 with 11st, trainer form poor, ran over national fences. *The only thing putting me off is that this year he carries more weight and runs off a higher rating than in his previous 2 nationals, i'd like to hear other peoples thoughts on this matter* Ballabriggs Would probably prefer good ground but has won on soft, runs best Jan- March- so perhaps this comes 1 month to late, running well, odd jumping mistake, field size no prob, running of highest ever mark in a handicap, trainer form average. Silver By Nature The softer going the better, best performances in winter mud, running well, jumps well, likes big fields, won of 149 against lower rated but won of 143 against higher, trainer form good Cheif Dan George Good or gd-sft, running ok, jumps ok, big fields no prob, ranwell of 148 with similar weight, performs best late winter spring, trainer form poor, ran at aintree but never over national fences Killyglen Prefer good ground but will act on heavy, running poorly, jumps ok, midfield when ran of same rating but top weight, spring horse, trainer form good, won at aintree on mildmay course Any thoughts?

    2011 Boxing Thread

    in Boxing & UFC Betting

    Posted

    Re: 2011 Boxing Thread Robin Reid at just less than 9/2 on Betfair. Unbelievable price for a former world champion. Granted he hasn't fought for a few years but he is clearly a class above the rest. Dutched with sound boxer Fielding from the other half of the draw.

    Golf: PGA Tour 2011 - Franklin Templeton Shootout

    in Golf Betting

    Posted

    Re: Golf: PGA Tour 2011 - WGC Cadillac & Puerto Rico Open Good evening, Not really had a golf wager for a while but thought id get back on the wagon this week. My selections are: Cadillac Open Golf Matt Kuchar Having a decent year so far, his last 3 starts have produced finishes of 32/3 and 17. Did well round here last year to finish 3rd. He also boasts quite a good driving accuracy and he seems to be putting relatively well. Paul Casey Another player having a decent year, a missed cut a few weeks ago the only blemish. Made the cut on his last 3 visits here including a 6th place last time round. Thomas Aiken His last 3 tournements have yielded finishes of 13/6/7 and performed well here last year finishing in 7th. I feel he is massively overpriced given his current form. Any thoughts?

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