Evertonboy
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Posts posted by Evertonboy
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Re: Spanish Antepost - 2012-13 Would like to hear peoples views on the following bet: Each way on Levante to Win La Liga W/O Barcelona and Real Madrid @ 80/1 1/3 2 with Betvictor Betvictor paying 1/3 2 places w/o the big 2, Atletico look nailed on for 3rd so i'll be getting 26/1 for them finishing in the top 4, I have them in 6th on my projections but only 5 points of 4th with Malaga 20/1 and Valencia 16/1. Looks like a small stakes value bet to me.
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Re: The "All Green" Grand National 2013 AK, firstly congratulations on your success in this series of threads, I have a few questions to throw your way - 1. Your staking seems irrational, do you follow a staking plan as such or just any excess cash you have at the time? 2. Whats your thought process when it comes to lay? Do you target certain prices or just when the odds have shortend? 3. How come you never equalise your profits? How would you feel if you had spent all season building up a portfolio of risk-free investments only for a horse you had no profit on to win and your hard work be for nothing? Thanks
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Re: Antepost > League 2 > 2012/13 Based on my points projections (see System and Strategy thread for more details) I've backed Torquay and Cheltenham at 24.0 and 28.0 respectively on Betfair (trading reasons). These two sides top my projections and the odds on offer do not reflect that
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Re: Football Projections I've not done anything as yet; theres a few teams who i'll probably steer clear off until more of the season as elapsed - such as Forest and Pompey (although their s/r will remain the same) I'll probably look to get involved after the international break
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Hi I have recently compiled a spreadsheet that attempts to project the total points and finishing position of teams in the 4 English leagues. The basic theory is as follows: 1. Each team has been assigned a strike rate based on last seasons form and this, this changes on a game to game basis as more games are played 2. I use this strike rate to determine the % of points that all teams can be expected to pick up from their remaining games 3. I combine this projected points gained in their remaining matches to their current total points gained and come up with a final points projection and finishing positon. A few points to note: 1. This is in its infancy and is open to improvements 2. The strike rate for promoted/ relegated teams will remain fixed (based on theories by Kevin Pullein in his book) 3. At the moment the final points projection for all teams is slightly higher than you would expect. I am hopeful that as the season progresses the final totals will gradually reduce and come into line. As such, i would use the finishing positions as a guide and place no bets based on points totals.
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Re: Boxing > 14-15 July Haye v Chisora I see this as a tale of two fights, Haye will control the early rounds with Chisora the latter. I predict that Chisora will be the one pushing forward and Haye fighting off the back foot. Haye will be dangerous early but if Chisora can get through the first few rounds, I feel the fight will be his to lose - remember Haye has a previous defeat due to gassing, albeit this was years ago to Carl Thompson. However, Haye has only gone 12 rounds twice in the last few years (I know this is over 10 rounds tonight) and in both of these fights he was hardly made to fight for 12 hard rounds, Chisora will put him under pressure from the word go and make him work. Khan v Garcia As much as Id love to be writing saying Amir Khan will get KOd and we'll never hear of him again, sadly I dont see this being the case tonight. But business is business and I've seen nothing in Garcia to suggest he can beat Khan tonight. Recommended Bet Dutch Doubles on: Chisora to win Outright (7/2) and Amir Khan to win Outright (1/5) (both SKYbet) pays just under 9/2 and Haye rounds 1-5 (3/1) and Amir Khan to win Outright (1/5) (both Paddy Power) pays just under 4/1
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Re: Sweden > Allsvenskan > 2012 GAIS are a value bet for me at 1.80, I rate them at 1.64 (Pullien Stats)
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Re: Finland > Veikkausliga > 2012
Based on the ideas put forward by Racing Post tipster Kevin Pullien in his book "The Definitvie Guide to Betting on Football". Cut a long story short, its basically a stats based approach that works out the "true" odds of certain markets.What is 'Pullien stats'? -
Re: Finland > Veikkausliga > 2012 Haka v TPS My Pullien stats have Under 2.5 at 1.75, backed at 1.90 on bet365 (there could be better prices available, im only doing small stakes so all my money is that account) Vaasa v JJK Pullien stats make this a 'pic um' match with both sides at 2.88, I'll have some of bet365s 3.50 available for JJK.
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Re: Norway > Tippeligaen > 2012 So I've decided to revamp my Pullien spreadsheet in time for the new English season, also included Scandinavian games to give me something to bet on in the next few weeks, first bet: Valerenga v Aalesund The draw is overpriced here according to my Pullien stats, I make it 3.45. I'll have some of the 3.60 on offer at Bet365
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Re: Big Brother Starts Tuesday June 5th I've just posted this on another forum...
Interesting to here your views on how you plan to trade this.Starts tonight, fun market, plenty of opprotunity to trade. I'll share my "Winner Blueprint" for you all to add to/ shoot down. Probably the latter. 1. No preference towards sex. 7 out of 12 winners have been male (for what its worth Im counting transexual Nadia as a woman). Word of caution - Attractive model-type women don't fare to well with only Sophie in 2009 winning. 2. Age - All winners have been aged between 20 and 32, only 2 aged less than 21. Age group 22-25 have produced 6 winners whilst over 26s has produced 4 3. Skin Colour - Only 1 black person has won, Brian Belo in 07 4. Nationality - 1 Scottish and 1 portuguese has won, the other 10 winners have been english 5. They don't get involved with house politics, tend to stand alone. 6. Keep an eye on various opinion polls throughout the show and see who tops the public polls. Also keep an ear out for crowd reactions at evictions In order to help me with my initial bets, I'll be listening to the crowd reaction when they enter the house. Also, on a side note, 12 out of 12 of the first evictions have been women. -
Re: Boxing/MMA 2012 Thread
I seen this on the Beyond the Ropes yesterday, I agree that it looked as tho exhaustion was the main cause - could make things interesting in the latter rounds especially if Froch knows he needs a KODont mean to pick dude but you state Bute aint been down but in reality he should have lost his title to andrade and can definately be hurt though i dare say this was as much exhaustion. Its kind of similar to Frch/Taylor but check the vid to see what i mean but bs home refereeing and he was out for 10, no doubt!fair do's bute came back and did a job on him in the rematch but all im saying is he lost the fight in my eyes. -
Re: Boxing/MMA 2012 Thread Not been in thee old boxing thread for a couple of months but I thought I'd give my opinions anyway.. Carl Froch 28(20)-2(0) v Lucian Bute 30(24)-0 On Paper Froch comes into this fight ranked 3 by Boxrec and is a former 2x WBC champion as well as the Super Six runner up. His height is recorded at 6'1 with a reach of 75. Froch has fought the last few years of his career at the top level, the current ranking of his last 5 opponents have been 1 (L UD), 10 (W MD), 7 (W UD), 5 (L UD) and 9 (W SD). He has (as far I can see) only been down once in his pro career (v Jermain Taylor) an is known for his granite chin. Despite his reputation as a brawler/ big-puncher - he only has 1 stoppage win since 2008. (7 fights (v Jermain Taylor)). He is also a former ABA amatuer champion, despite this he does seem to lose a number of rounds.Bute on the other hand, is currently ranked 2 by Boxrec and is the current IBF champion. He is half an inch taller than Froch but his reach is 3in shoter. He boxes out of a southpaw stance. His previous 5 opponents have been ranked 10 (W UD), 34 (W KO), 12 (W TKO), n/a (W KO) and 20 (W TKO). Again, as far as i can see he has never been down in his pro career. His last 7 out 8 fights have ended inside the distance. He is a former Bronze medalist at the World Championships and this has seen him barely lose a round as a pro.Common Opponents Both men have faught Glen Johnson - with Froch winning a MD and Bute a UD. Also, they have both stopped Brian Magee - Froch in 11 rounds (only 1 round in it on the cards at the time) and Bute in 10. In my opinion Bute won more convincingly than Froch on both occasions. In The Ring I've researched Frochs worst performances and highlighted a few things: v Ward - He was outjabbed despite a reach advantage. Ward neutralised Frochs power by moving backwards. Froch was to slow v Kessler - He was not as busy as Kessler and was too easy to hit v Taylor - Got caught wide open with an overhand right v Dirrell - Froch was on the front foot whilst Dirrell counter-punched and clinched. I can find no major faults with Bute as at the moment he has never been in any trouble. If i was being picky I would say he isn't the quickest Conclusion Whilst Froch has dropped rounds at the higher level, Bute has barely lost a round at a level just below the top. It's clear that Froch has great boxing ability - as shown when outpointing Abraham but he gets drawn into a brawl too easily - the hometown fans will not help this situation either. Froch has also struggled against southpaws. As Bute has never been stopped and Froch has no recent KO history, im going to rule out a Froch KO win. That being said, if Froch is to win it wil be on points - but as i've already said Bute has barely lost a round, however this is in Frochs hometown and we all know how bias home town judges can be. Bute also has tremendous power with a string of recent KO wins - but Froch has never been stopped. I see this being a close fight and if a stoppage comes - the winner will be Bute. Suggested Bet Carl Froch and Lucian Bute to DRAW 25/1 @ Paddy Power and Ladbrokes
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It's been a while since I have shown an interest in horse racing, but after a few bets last week at Cheltenham last week I've got the bug again. I went on a losing run throughout last year and eventually became fed up. This time round I'm going to adopt a different approach. Instead of going out day after day seeking out bets, I'm going to wait and let these bets come to me. How am I going to do this I hear you ask??... I am going to create a portfolio of horses that I will back next time out under certain conditions. I will do this as follows: Every Wednesday I shall buy the Weekender paper with all the previous weeks results, I plan to read it cover to cover and pick up every insight of information, but my main use will be for the results section. I will sift threw each race meeting and make a note of horses I feel may be worth following. It will be trial and error at first but Im going to give it good go. To start with, I will be looking for the following horses: - Met trouble in running and could well have finished a higher placing had they not met trouble - Ran on or stayed on - Earned the comment "jumped well" - Where running well before falling or unseating rider - Beat home higher rated horses - Ran a fast time compared to similar race on card - Outperformed their SP - Distances where strung out - Inconvenienced by the draw - Inconvenienced by pace There will be no set rules for the above, just my own judgement. I will look to update this thread atleast once a week with my shortlist and possbly post in BBOTD any that I back on the day. Constructive critiscm and advice very welcome.
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Re: Fri: 3.20 Betfred Cheltenham Gold Cup I see this as a 2 horse race. It would take a monumental effort from another horse to beat these as Kauto and Long Run have a good 15lb in hand on the best of the rest on official ratings. The horses rated in the 150s and 160s have swapped victories and finished in front of each other numerous times with nothing really proving itself to be "the best of the rest". The trainer in form in the last 7 days is Nicky Henderson, Neil Mullonhead also has his horse running well too. With that in mind my money is on Long Run, unfortunately I missed the 9/4 but got on at 2/1 @ Betvictor (If your horse finihes 2nd to Kauto you get a free bet upto £50). If he jumps well he wins, and the only horse that can beat Long Run is Long Run. I'd love Kauto to win but the extra couple of furlongs and the Cheltenham hill may be a bridge to far. I expect to see Burton Port and Midnight Chase to give Kauto a fight for 2nd place with Syncronised plodding on for 4th.
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Re: Tues: 2.05 Arkle Challenge Trophy Evening I've not posted on here for a while but I thought I'd share my thoughts on this race; Firstly, most of the trainers in this race are in decent form at this stage, churning out regular solid performances with the odd runner being described as weakening or pulling up. If i had to pick the trainer in slightly better form it would be Henderson, with Ryan being in the poorest of form. Al Ferof ticks all the right boxes for me and was a festival winner last year. His form seems pretty solid and he's a big player on the official ratings. Astracad probably would not have won last time if it wasn't for 2 fallers, and the subsequent form of the horses he beat is nothing to write home about. Alot to find on ratings. Blackstairmountain was well beaten last time out and I can see no obvious excuse for this. Alot to find on ratings. Cristal Bonus has performed better over 2m4f and is the stables 2nd string. Untried over fences at this distance but was beaten by Menorah over hurdles here last year. An unknown quantity really but is officially the 4th best horse in the race. Cue Cards jumping is littered with mistakes and another one who may not have won last time out if it wasn't for fallers. Form is also nothing special. Foildubh has the odd jumping mistake and his form from last time out i deem to be unreliable as it was a slowly run race - its nothing special anyway. Well beaten on more reliable form. Won't enjoy good going and alot to find on ratings. Kid Cassidy is the stable 2nd string and another whose jumping is littered with mistakes. His form is not up to standard and would have probably gone down to Menorah last time out had it not fallen. ALot to find on ratings. Menorah makes the odd jumping mistake and it's form is nothing special over fences. A bit of unknown quantity but a player based on hurdle form. Nearest the Pin has nothing standout in the formbook and its only win has come right handed. Alot to find on ratings Sprinter Sacre has earned the comments "jumped well" in its recent form, the form itself seems solid enough. Verdict My assesment brings me to believe that this will be contested by Al Ferof and Sprinter Sacre. I'm favouring Menorah over Cue Card to finish 3rd but wouldn't be surprised if Cristal Bonus could steel a place. However, looking at the trends for the race my initial assesment may be completely wrong. The combined record of 5 and 6 year olds in the race is 3-7-62 - this goes against Sprinter Sacre, Cristal Bonus and Cue Card. Another blotch on the record of Sprinter Sacre is the record of Wayward LAd Novice Chase (0-1-5) and Atteys Solicitors Novice Chase (0-0-2) winners in the race, Al Ferof on the other hand won November Novice Chase (1-2-8) and Henry VIII Novice Chase (1-3-8). My Prediction: 1. Al Ferof 2. Sprinter Sacre 3. Menorah Interested to hear peoples thoughts
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As the title suggests really,I'm talking pre-race, do you lay off in Outright and place markets? Any advie/ calculators appreciated
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Re: Kevin Pullien's "True Odds" ??????????????????
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Re: IAAF World Championships Athletics 27th August - 4th September I know I'm abit late with this, but for future reference has anybody got any good stats sites with times/ jump distances etc. Thanks
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Re: Money Management I've had a positive start to the season, bank has grown by around 20% I've reduced my max bet to 5%. I know doing this really defeats the object of the Kelly criterion and I'll probably miss a few big winners but I aim to cut out any big losses as I iron out any discrepancies in my system. All trading wagers still come with a stop loss of 10%.
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With the new season almost upon on us I thought it would be a good time to discuss a money management plan. My POA is as follows;
- Use a variety of systems and trade live matches where I am not working. My max loss/ stake will be 10% of my bank (It will be £100 to start, I aim to reduce this as my bank (hopefully) grows
- At the end of every trading/ betting day I will bank 70% of winnings should the bank be above £100 and the remaining 30% will remain in the betting bank. Should the bank fall below £100 any winnings will be used to build this figure back up towards the £100 marker
Now I will not be able to trade every live game due to working commitments. To counteract this I plan to base wagers based on my Kevin Pulliens stats. All bets will be singles and range from live match corner markets to your run of the mill 3pm kick offs. All bets will be staked in accordance to half of the kelly criterion with a max bet being set at 10%. However, I'd like to here peoples thoughts on what there maximum outlay would be for multiple bets at any one time in accordance to there bank. At the minute, I'm thinking to stick to 10% of the bank. I would prioritise bets by deeming those with the highest win % prediction according to my figures as first choice bets, working my way down any possible selections until 10% of my bank is spoken for. Any thoughts/ advice?
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Re: Weekend > Scotland > SPL Saturday 30th & Sunday 31st July After some further research it highlights that ICT lost 10 players in summer and boss Terry Butcher claimed his side where not ready for the opening game. With that in mind that potential wager is scrapped and they'll go on the swerve list for a few weeks.
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Re: Weekend > Scotland > SPL Saturday 30th & Sunday 31st July After running last seasons and the opening day results through my Pullien calculator I've found the following value bets; Inverness to bt Hibernian @ 2.28 (Betfair) - My Odds 1.69 Kilmarnock to bt Motherwell @ 2.32 (Betfair) - My Odds 2.17 St Mirren to bt Aberdeen @ 2.64 (Betfair) - My Odds 2.44 As you can see from the above the Killy and St Mirren games only represent slight value (if any at the mo when you take comision into account) but there is a huge difference in terms of the ICT game. Has anybody else compiled there own prices and come up with similar results to mine or can somebody offer an insight as to why they are priced so highly (In my opinion) For info- My prices are based on WLD from last season and the opening day
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Saturday 30 July 2011 Home Draw Away BPP 
St Johnstone v Rangers (12:00 BST) 8 4.5 1.53 100.08 % Inverness Caledonian Thistle v Hibernian (15:00 BST) 2.4 3.45 3.2 101.90 % Kilmarnock v Motherwell (15:00 BST) 2.54 3.5 3.1 100.20 % St Mirren v Aberdeen (15:00 BST) 2.75 3.4 2.67 103.23 % Sunday 31 July 2011 Home Draw Away BPP Hearts v Dundee United (15:00 BST) 2.07 3.55 4 101.48 %
A League > 30 November - 2 December
in Australian Football Predictions
Posted
Re: A League > 30 November - 2 December Quite fancy Newcatle Jets @ 5/1 (365) to win at Brisbane. Also think Goals Galore at 8/11 (Stans) is a decent bet. Theres been whispers in the press that the Brisbane camp is an unhappy one at the minute. You also have to go back to 2008 for the last time the Roar registered a home victory against the Jets. Further more, Roar have failed to score 3 times in 5 home games this term (they have scored 4 and 5 in their other 2) whilst Newcastle have scored in every away game this season and notched atleast twice in 4/6 games.