Jimmy2shoes

Yeah.lol...I'm just getting some mileage on the clock making sure everything works etc ....allseems fine so im going to make a strict rule to only concentrate on first 4 betting and to only play on the big differences ...i think that will be its strong point ...obviously horses dont reproduce their best two or three times in a row but i think if i concentrate only on the strongest hands then I think it can do well ....,so I'll start looking from Monday .......bring it on !!
I'll keep a record of bets too so we can see what is going on and whether there's a way it can be improved ....who knows it might surprise us !!
Last night's race was really good in fact that trust the Indian was top rated on other speed ratings I use too ....I noticed that afterwards so I can see the ratings are tuned right so ....I knew he was crap over 7f but it was a crap race anyway ...considering he was 5th and down the field and still came out top rated is fab really just shows the sheet is reading  correctly so all's good 

Lots of cracking reading richard and i take my Hat off to you or anyone for that matter that has the head for such puzzles, I only have a small handful of PL Members that i will read up on and You have always been one of them.
Anything out the box that gives us a little edge over the greedy Bookmaker is always worth a go, we both know we cant win them all BUT it makes for a better game if we can greatly REDUCE that risk of losing our money.

As you know I love messing about with speed calculations and although its horrendously difficult to get your head around sometimes I'd like to share to latest thing I've been playing with ....I'm mainly interested in you thoughts as to whether its feasible or ways it can possibly be improved ...either way makes for an interesting discussion this is purely for all weather at the moment as the going diff is minimal and for ratings purposes this is just showing how to compile a raw rating based on comparing to the average runner at the track 

 
First of all I set up the spreadsheet as above going from a1 to k1 with each field as so
Distance furlongs
Time in seconds
Standard in seconds 
Difference between time and standard 
Difference converted to lbs 
Rating after above 
Weight carried +- 9stone (so if carried 9-10 you would put +10)
Length down from Winner (0 if won )
Adj per length in lbs at distance ( ie 3.8 lbs per length at 5f..3.2 at 6f etc )
Final rating 
Thats that part done I'll elaborate next part in a moment 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

I thought the same after his reappearance but just look at how he absolutely destroyed Coneygree in the Betfair. For whatever reason he didn't run his race in the King George but the talk that Thistlecrack broke him is complete rubbish. From 4 to 3 out Thistlecrack only ran 4L quicker than 152 rated Might Bite despite the latter going considerably faster during the first part of the race. There's no way that is quick enough to ruin Cue Card's race and I believe he just wasn't right on the day causing him to run well below form. He's definitely a better horse at Haydock and Cheltenham too anyway.
The King George form is bad, the time was poor and Cue Card has an excuse. His Betfair Chase thrashing of Coneygree is the best form in the book and if he's anything like 16s or 20s when firms go NRNB that will be e/w bet of the century with the Lexus throwing up nothing of note.

Jockey Daniel Muscutt heads for Kempton Park for just the one sole ride before he then makes the journey to Meydan, he gets the leg up on this 4yr old filly trained by Marco Botti and if she can improve any slight amount on her debut run 2 weeks ago she must have solid claims.
She wasn't given a hard intro on her first appearance at Lingfield Park and today's slight extra distance might just bring out a better effort, nothing much else in the field shouts out so Marco's sole representative is taken with confidence to provide us with some wages, we only lose out by being hit with traffic problems.
17:45 Kempton Park - Wahiba

Nice wee run G' 

Awesome write ups 
Many Thanks 

MY ANTE-POST DIARY -2016/2017
PART 7   As we are now into 2017, I thought it might be good to give a brief update on each of the bets that I have put up so far.   Our first bet Jezki is still generally available at 14/1 for the Stayers’ Hurdle having not made it the racecourse yet this season. Having missed an engagement over Christmas, his trainer indicated that he would instead run in the Irish Champion Hurdle at the end of the month, but when the entries were released last week, he was not amongst them. I would be lying if I said that I wasn’t concerned about his wellbeing as I had expected him to be back by now but if Jessica Harrington can get him back, I still think he would have a big chance in the Stayers’ Hurdle come March.   Kim Bailey’s Charbel can still be backed at 33/1 for the JLT and he hasn’t run since chasing home Altior in the Henry VIII Chase in December. His trainer reported last week that he ‘had been a little quiet’ although he also mentioned that a number of his string hadn’t been quite right over the Festive period. He is hoping to get another run into him before the Festival, although he would prefer to run him on a sounder surface.   Cilaos Emery continues to attract support in the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle market and is now as short as 7/1 with Paddy Power and Stan James for the race. The Willie Mullins pecking order is unlikely to be clear until final declarations but he is clearly pleasing connections at home and we should see him step up in grade before too long. Should he switch races or miss the Festival entirely, at least we have the security of NRNB, but we look to be in a strong position at present, having backed him at 12/1.   The final bet to update on is Native River in the Gold Cup, who having been advised at 9/1 a couple of weeks ago, is now as short as 5/1. This is largely due to the absence of Coneygree but once again, with this race likely to be his target, we look to be in a good position.   We also see the first entries close for the Festival with the Queen Mother Champion Chase, Ryanair and Gold Cup all having closed at noon today. The Champion Hurdle closes next Tuesday along with the Mares’ Hurdle and the Stayers’ Hurdle so it should start to make the Festival picture a little clearer.  
Champion Hurdle
We still haven’t seen the first two in the market this season and Willie Mullins admitted that the Irish Champion Hurdle at the end of the month, represented the last chance for Faugheen to have a run before the Cheltenham Festival. Whilst the nine-year-old is reportedly well at home, the trainer’s son Patrick suggested last week just hadn’t sparkled yet and as a result the team were giving him plenty of time before bringing him back. In terms of ability, I can see why he is at the head of the market but as time goes on without him running, surely his general 9/4 will inflate.   Mullins also had news of last year’s winner Annie Power who could bypass the Irish Champion Hurdle and run in the same mare’s race that she ran in last year. She is available at 4/1 with a number of firms to retain her crown, which is much bigger than she has been in recent weeks and like her stablemate, she needs to prove all is well before long.   One at a bigger price who has attracted support in recent days is Brain Power who looks set to return to Sandown for the Contenders Hurdle for his next assignment. That is likely to be his Champion Hurdle trial as he could take on Yanworth, who is also reported to be heading for that race. He doesn’t have much to find with Petit Mouchoir on their Punchestown run last year and with Nicky Henderson’s six-year-old having improved considerably this season, it is easy to see why he has been popular at bigger odds.   In other news, it was also reported last week that The New One is set to step up in trip for his next run, with connections leaning towards having a go at the Stayers’ Hurdle. However, in the Racing Post today, whilst conceding that he will have an entry over the longer trip, Nigel Twiston-Davies said that the main target remained the Champion Hurdle. Personally, I would be having a go at the Stayers’ Hurdle as I can’t see him winning a Champion Hurdle now.    
Queen Mother Champion Chase
Garde La Victoire was introduced at 33/1 with SkyBet for the Champion Chase following his handicap success at Sandown on Saturday. Philip Hobbs’ eight-year-old carried top weight as he saw off stablemate Bold Henry and following this handicap success, surely a return to Graded company beckons. Despite winning four of his seven starts over fences, he has shown a tendency to jump low, something which caught him out when falling in the JLT at the Festival last year. His jumping does look to have improved but on the bare form of his most recent race, he would have to improve a good deal to be a Champion Chase contender.   Tom George could have a couple of runners in the race with Sir Valentino and God’s Own and the trainer has indicated that he plans to give the pair a break before bringing them back for Spring campaigns.
 
Stayers’ Hurdle
Harry Fry said last week that he believed that Ballyoptic represented the biggest threat to Unowhatimeanharry, despite falling at Ascot last time. “I think Ballyoptic should not be dismissed lightly at all. We beat him fair and square at Newbury, but he was running a very good race and would have been much closer to us if he had stayed up at the last at Ascot. Although Richard Johnson stopped short of saying he would have won, he clearly felt he was still in with a chance. He would be very interesting at the current prices.”   Fry also confirmed that the ante-post favourite was fit and well and that he is on course to make his next start in the Cleeve Hurdle at the end of the month.
Cole Harden who ran with some credit on New Year’s Day in the Relkeel Hurdle is also likely to target the Stayer’s Hurdle.  The former winner’s trainer Warren Greatrex did mention that the 2015 winner could have a run over fences before then, as he feels the switch to the larger obstacles has sharpened the eight-year-old up. He was only beaten seven lengths at the line behind Agrapart on ground slower than ideal but I think the 33/1 still available is a fair reflection of his chances.
 
Gold Cup
The news was broken yesterday morning that Coneygree would not be given an entry in the Gold Cup when the entries closed at noon on Tuesday. He missed the King George with a niggly injury and it appears that setback has left connections with too little time to get the ten-year-old ready. Sara Bradstock said on Monday: “We’re not going to enter him in the Gold Cup. If everything changed and suddenly everything looked perfect, his x-rays and him, we could supplement him, but I’m not going to enter him because I’m 90 per cent certain he will not run. It’s all too quick. It’s only two months from now and he’s still only walking and we’re not going to be there in top form.”   As a result, Thistlecrack was trimmed to as short as 8/11 with Boylesports, with the second in the market, Native River now no bigger than 13/2 for the Gold Cup.
Meanwhile, another previous winner was reported to be progressing in his work with Eddie O’Leary reporting that it was “so far, so good” with Don Cossack. He also confirmed the intention to get a run into him in February before heading to Cheltenham, although that plan is far from set in stone. I mentioned last week that Colin Tizzard was likely to have a third runner in the Gold Cup and he gave a favourable mention to French import Alary when speaking to the press at the weekend. “Alary was very good this morning on the gallops,” said Tizzard. “I don’t know when he will run but he’s bloody good, I’ll tell you that.”    
Novice Hurdlers  
Supreme
Supporters of ante-post favourite Moon Racer were assured of the horse’s wellbeing last week with David Pipe saying that he is likely to have his next outing at the end of this month or the beginning of next month. The Betfair Hurdle was under consideration but he would have needed another run Newbury in order to qualify. He is therefore likely to have one more run before Cheltenham, where we will get entries for both the Supreme and the Champion Hurdle. Saturday’s Tolworth winner Finian’s Oscar has also been trimmed into a general 10/1 for the Supreme following his win at the weekend. Colin Tizzard’s gelding ran out an impressive winner and whilst his trainer admitted afterwards that he wasn’t sure what was the five-year-old’s best trip, I suspect he will end up in the Neptune.   One who could be set for the Supreme is Elgin who is likely to put his Cheltenham credentials on the line in the Dovecote Novices’ Hurdle next month. Alan King’s gelding made it two from two over hurdles on Boxing Day and it seems that how he runs back at Kempton is likely to determine whether he goes to Cheltenham or not.
Another name to thrown their hat into the ring was Willie Mullins’ Chateau Conti who made a winning debut at Cork on Saturday. A winner of two French bumpers, the five-year-old came readily clear of his rivals to win by seven and a half lengths and is available at 16/1 with a number of firms. This coming weekend, it will be interesting to see who runs in the Moscow Flyer Novice Hurdle at Punchestown, with that race having been won by Vautour, Douvan and Min in the last three years. Willie Mullins is once again well represented this year with five of the entries including our Supreme Novices’ hope Cilaos Emery.  
 
Neptune
I mentioned above that I felt Finian’s Oscar was more than likely to run in the Neptune and it seems that the market agrees as he is now 5/1 favourite with most firms following Saturday’s Tolworth victory. Yorkhill landed the Tolworth en route to the Neptune last year and having won a point-to-point over 3m, you would have to think that the Supreme may be on the sharp side for him.   Gordon Elliott’s Death Duty is next best in the market and he stretched his unbeaten record over hurdles to four with victory in the Grade 1 Lawlor’s Hotel Novice Hurdle on Sunday. Racing over 2m4f, he was locked in a battle with Augusta Kate going to the last but with that rival falling, he raced clear in the closing stages to win by nine lengths. His trainer said afterwards that he would now head to the Albert Bartlett, for which he is 9/4 favourite.   Willie Mullins’ faller Augusta Kate looked to have every chance before coming down and is now as short as 12/1 for the Neptune. It is hard to know whether she would have won but she would certainly have given Gordon Elliott’s horse a race and she would have to be considered a live contender for the race if heading down that route.
Her stablemate Saturnas could also have this race on his agenda, with Willie Mullins suggesting that the Grade 1 winner could step up in trip for his next run. A winner of the Future Champions Novice Hurdle over Christmas, he looks set to run in the Deloitte Novice Hurdle on February 12 over 2m2f. He is available at 20/1 for the Neptune, although he is as short as 14/1 with some firms.   Looking ahead to this weekend, we could get some clues in the Neptune Novices’ Hurdle at Warwick, won last year by Willie Mullins’ Thomas Hobson. There are a number of interesting entrants including multiple winner Peregrine Run, Dan Skelton’s Get On The Yager and the progressive Geordie Des Champs.  
 
Albert Bartlett  
I have already discussed the merits of Death Duty and given the way he stayed on from the back of the last on Sunday, I have no doubt that the step up to three miles will show him in an even better light. He is now a general 9/4 shot but given the record of favourites in the race in recent years I wouldn’t be holding my breath just yet.   One who could line-up against him is Dan Skelton’s Lakeside Castle who made a most impressive debut for the yard on Friday at Wetherby. The six-year-old cam readily clear of the well-fancied Westend Story to win by twenty-three lengths and it is quite possible that the step up to three miles with bring about further improvement. He was introduced at 20/1 with SkyBet and could develop into a smart novice.
 
Triumph
Alan King’s Coeur De Lion was pushed out to as big as 40/1 for the Supreme having been turned over at short odds at Sandown on Saturday. The four-year-old was conceding 6lb to all of his rivals but Tom Symonds’ Don Bersy travelled and jumped well throughout the race and just outstayed his rival in the closing stages. The fact that it took him three runs over hurdles to get off the mark suggests he isn’t above average and these two look more like Fred Winter candidates than Triumph horses.   Whilst discussing a number of his string, Gordon Elliott gave a favourable mention to Mega Fortune who he believes will be suited by the way races are run at Cheltenham. He won impressively at Down Royal before running behind Bapaume and Landofhopeandglory on his next two starts and would look to have a good chance if going down the Fred Winter route.   Kempton’s opening race on Saturday looks worth a watch with a number of interesting horses entered included Poker Play who was bought for £280,000 in December. He finished a length behind Charli Parcs on his hurdling debut before winning impressively next time and David Pipe looks to have a smart recruit on his hands. Alan King has several entered including Newbury winner Cosmeapolitan whilst Nicky Henderson could give a debut to French hurdle winner Divin Bere.    
Novice Chasers  
Arkle
Nicky Henderson confirmed last night that despite having an entry for the Clarence House Chase at Ascot next weekend, ante-post Arkle favourite Altior was unlikely to take up that engagement. He could instead run in the Game Spirit Chase at Newbury, the same race which Sprinter Sacre won prior to landing the Arkle back in 2012.
He also said that Buveur D’Air was likely to tackle the Scilly Isles Chase at Sandown next, although he will be given an entry in the Champion Hurdle when the race closes next Tuesday. Henderson has been keen to try him over 2m4f and he is hoping it will tell him whether the horse is an Arkle horse or whether he should head down the JLT route.   At the weekend, Henry De Bromhead’s Some Plan was trimmed into 20/1 for the Arkle having run out a ready winner at Naas on Sunday. The well-backed favourite American Tom looked to be struggling when falling at the fourth last but the winner jumped well out in front and wasn’t for passing on the run-in. He took a heavy fall at Cheltenham in November when seemingly holding every chance and now two from three over fences, he looks worth an entry in the race.   Another who could line up in the Arkle is A Hare Breath who made a winning debut over fences at Bangor last month and is likely to target the Lightning Novices’ Chase at Doncaster at the end of the month. Ben Pauling did concede that he is unlikely to beat Altior or Min and a decision on the Festival will be made after his next run.
 
RSA  
The RSA doesn’t look the easiest race to predict at present but we could get some clues at Warwick on Saturday as they host the Hampton Novices’ Chase. The race looks to have attracted some good entries with Champers On Ice and Mystical Knight probably the two most interesting runners. Harry Fry’s American and Evan Williams’ Pobbles Bay are two more lightly-raced chasers who look to have earned a step up in class and hopefully we get a stand out performer on Saturday who can stake their claim for the race.  
 
Misc Races  
Mares Hurdle
Willie Mullins delivered news in recent days that Limini, the winner of last year’s Mares’ Novice Hurdle is likely to have one run before tackling the Mares’ Hurdle at Cheltenham in March. Mullins reported the mare to be in great form, with the mare in fast work and progressing nicely.   Paul Nicholls’ Lifeboat Mona also put her name forward for the race with victory at Sandown on Saturday. The seven-year-old has now won her last three starts over hurdles and she stayed on strongly in the closing stages to get the better of the useful Midnight Jazz. She seems to be getting better with every run and whilst she will need to improve a good deal to trouble the likes of Vroum Vroum Mag or Annie Power, if they line up, she looks to have earned her place in the race.   One who won’t be lining up is Gordon Elliott’s Missy Tata who will miss the rest of the season, having suffered a suspensory injury. The five-year-old has won her last five starts since finishing fourth in the Fred Winter last March and was as short as 10/1 for this race. Hopefully, the injury isn’t too serious and we will see her back in the autumn over fences.  
 
Champion Bumper  
West Coast Time entered the picture for the Champion Bumper when winning by nine and a half lengths at Cork on Saturday. Joseph O’Brien’s five-year-old is out of Refinement, who finished second in the Champion Bumper herself back in 2004 before going on to land two Grade 1 prizes during her career. This debutant was very impressive in quickening clear of some useful rivals including Drumconnor Lad who chased home Ballyward at Leopardstown over Christmas. He was introduced at 14/1 for the Champion Bumper on the back of this win although his trainer warned afterwards that he didn’t “know if Cheltenham would be the right thing for him” so we might have to watch this space. He is likely to have another run in the not too distant future before a plan for the Spring will be made.    
Bets  
WHOLESTONE (Albert Bartlett) – 1pt e/w @ 16/1 (bet365, SkyBet)
My bet this week is Nigel Twiston-Davies’ Wholestone who looks on course to line up in the Albert Bartlett, with the River Don Novices’ Hurdle at Doncaster at the end of the month likely to be his final prep race. The six-year-old has already won three times over hurdles this season, with his only defeat coming at the hands of Peregrine Run over 2m5f at Cheltenham in November. Either side of that he has won over three miles at Prestbury Park, showing a strong resolve on both occasions to see off some useful rivals. He clearly stays well, handles the track and his form is working out well with Ami Desbois (who he beat last time) finishing third in the Challow Hurdle a couple of weeks ago. He looks to be improving all the time and with this race a confirmed target for him, I am surprised that he isn’t a little shorter in the market. Clearly Death Duty looks a standout at present but the recent record of favourites in the race suggests he is worth taking on and I think this improving six-year-old will have a big say in the race.  
Ante-Post Portfolio   JEZKI (Stayers Hurdle) – 1pt e/w @ 14/1 (bet365, Betfred)   CHARBEL (JLT Novices’ Chase) – 0.5pt e/w @ 33/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook)   CILAOS EMERY (Supreme Novices) – 1pt e/w @ 12/1 NRNB (Sky Bet)   NATIVE RIVER (Gold Cup) –1pt e/w @ 9/1 (Betway)   WHOLESTONE (Albert Bartlett) – 1pt e/w @ 16/1 (bet365, SkyBet)

MY ANTE-POST DIARY -2016/2017


PART 5



The Christmas period often has a big effect on the ante-post markets for the Cheltenham Festivals, with a number of top-class races on both sides of the Irish Sea. It tends to see a number of Festival races thinned out with plenty of dreams shattered as well as some dark horses emerging from out of the woodwork.
 
Gold Cup

The King George was billed as a match between the two stablemates Cue Card and Thistlecrack but despite the elder statesman challenging briefly down the back straight, it was more of a precession than a race. Despite his relative inexperience, Thistlecrack jumped boldly before sauntering clear as the field turned for home. He never really came off the bridle and was eased down close home to win by just over three lengths at the line. Not surprisingly, he was cut to as short as 4/5 for the Gold Cup because all being well, it looks as though if he gets round, he has an engine bigger than any racehorse in training. Having said that there were a couple of alarming leaps at the open ditches on Boxing Day which could cause him some problems back at Cheltenham and it will be interesting to see how he gets on in the Cotswold Chase in January.

Colin Tizzard appears to have an embarrassment of riches in the staying chase division and Native River threw his hat firmly into the Gold Cup ring with a fine weight carrying performance in the Welsh National at Chepstow. Despite his big weight, the way he raced clear from the fourth last marked him as more than a handicapper and it was only Raz De Maree (carrying 10st 7lb) that managed to get anywhere near him. His jumping was excellent and he looks to have found a perfect partner in Richard Johnson to get the best out of him. A Grade 1 winner last term as a novice, he continues to improve and with stamina unlikely to hold any fears, the winner of the Gold Cup is going to have to go some to get past him.

Over in Ireland, the Lexus Chase promised to throw up some Gold Cup clues and Djakadam was sent off the 5/4 favourite. However, Willie Mullins’ seven-year-old could only finish third to Outlander who he had beaten on his seasonal reappearance at Punchestown and the pair were split by the enigmatic Don Poli. There wasn’t much between the first four home at the final fence but it was Outlander who found most under Jack Kennedy to race clear and win by a widening two lengths.

You would have to think that Djakadam underperformed but he has come up short in two Gold Cups already and it is hard to see him going one better this time around, for all he will only be 8 come March. Willie Mullins said afterwards that they might make more use of him next time as he jumped well yesterday and he could be another to head straight to Cheltenham.

The winner Outlander fell when still holding every chance in the JLT last year but looks set to head back to Cheltenham for the Gold Cup, where he wouldn’t be without a chance. He can still be backed at 20/1 but would prefer a slower surface to be seen to best effect.

Also news came through today that Coneygree now appears likely to head straight to Cheltenham having suffered a setback in recent days. Sara Bradstock said she was still confident of getting the horse there but that they were more focussed on getting him in perfect shape and also raised the possibility of missing Cheltenham entirely.


 
Champion Hurdle


The big mover in the Champion Hurdle market was Yanworth who put aside any fears about him dropping back to two miles with a ready victory in the Christmas Hurdle at Kempton. Alan King’s six-year-old was a shade disappointing when winning on his return to action and it looked for a long way here as though he was struggling before picking up turning for home. Having moved through to lead at the final flight, he raced away from his rivals to hit the line strong and you would have to think that the stiff finish at Cheltenham is likely to suit him in a strongly run Champion Hurdle. He is now a general 5/1 shot for the race which I think is short considering his hurdling is far from fluent and he looked to be out-paced for much of the race. He could still have improvement in him with March in mind but I suspect he is only as short as 5/1 because there are question marks over the two market leaders Faugheen and Annie Power.

In behind Yanworth was The New One who set out to make all and probably just paid the price for getting racing too early in the latter stages of the race. We know he isn’t good enough to win the Champion Hurdle so I don’t see what connections have to lose by having a go at the World Hurdle, something Sam Twiston-Davies mentioned on Boxing Day. Ch’Tibello ran on well from the back to snatch third but looks some way short of Champion Hurdle class. Whilst My Tent Or Yours looked to have got his ideal conditions but made a tired mistake at the last and it looks as though his best days are behind him.

We got some more clues this afternoon in the Grade 1 Ryanair Hurdle as Petit Mouchoir ran out a ready winner. Henry De Bromhead’s five-year-old looked to be travelling as well as anything when coming down at the third last in the Fighting Fifth and gained compensation with this success. He was in front just after the first flight and remained there for the duration, kicking clear on the turn for home and maintaining his advantage to win by seven lengths from Nichols Canyon. He was trimmed to a general 10/1 for the Champion Hurdle and looks a player judged on this effort.

There was also news of Faugheen in the past couple of days as the former Champion was reported to be working every day and connections are hopeful that they will have him back for the Irish Champion Hurdle on the 29th January. It hasn’t been anything serious that has kept him off the track just a couple of niggles following the stone bruise he suffered a few weeks ago.


 
Champion Chase


Willie Mullins’ Douvan once again demonstrated just how far clear of his rivals he is by running away with the Paddy Power Cashcard Chase at Leopardstown on Tuesday. The six-year-old was already short for the Champion Chase but he is now as short as 1/3 with Paddy Power to land the spoils at Cheltenham in March. It is very hard to see anything giving him a race in March and in truth, you could make him favourite for almost any race at the Festival. The Champion Chase crown looks his to lose and barring any setbacks, the rest look to be playing for second and third place.

Special Tiara made the most of the race conditions being in his favour when winning the Desert Orchid Chase just over an hour later at Kempton. Henry De Bromhead’s nine-year-old had to work pretty hard to see off the challenge of Sir Valentino but was always doing enough and he should be suited by a return to Cheltenham in March. He has been placed at the last two Festivals and if the ground is on the quick side, he should be thereabouts fighting for a place again this year.


 
Stayers Hurdle


My ante-post selection Jezki was not declared for the Christmas Hurdle at Leopardstown with JP McManus represented instead by the French import Kotkikova. Jessica Harrington’s eight-year-old does have an entry at Punchestown at the weekend though, so it will be interesting to see if he lines up there.

In his absence, Vroum Vroum Mag led home a 1-2 for the Willie Mullins team as stablemate Clondaw Warrior followed the mare home in second. Ruby Walsh always looked confident on the eventual winner and it might have been a Mullins 1-2-3 had Shaneshill not fallen when still in contention at the final flight. In terms of future targets, Vroum Vroum Mag is likely to be pitched in wherever she is needed with both chases and hurdles a viable option come the Festival. She can be backed at 8/1 for the World Hurdle although I suspect she will be a bit shorter if this ends up being her target.


 
Ryanair


Following his defeat in the King George, it now appears that Cue Card could be re-routed to the Ryanair, the race he won back in 2013. He was no match for Thistlecrack at Kempton and Native River also looks a viable contender so the Tizzards have raised the possibility of him dropping back in trip, taking in the Grade 1 at Ascot next before heading to Cheltenham. He was introduced as the 5/1 market leader with most firms and although he is a different horse to the one that won three years ago, he would still have to be considered a leading contender.

Another beaten horse in the King George also looks likely to head to the Ryanair and that is Josses Hill who failed to see out the trip on his first start at 3m. The encouraging thing was his jumping has been much better this term in his two successes at Kempton and Huntingdon as well as in the King George on Monday. Whether he is as effective going left-handed over fences is still a question mark but he was third in the Arkle in the not too distant past so he makes some appeal at 14/1.


 
Novice Hurdlers


Supreme


The big shake-up in the Supreme market came on Boxing Day as the ante-post favourite Jenkins was well-beaten having been sent off the 1/2 favourite for the opening novice hurdle. He had jumped poorly on his hurdling debut at Newbury and here he seemed to be very slow at his obstacles and he found very little when asked to pick up by David Bass. The way he hung after the last perhaps indicated that all was not well with him but he is now as big as 25/1 for the Supreme and that looks a long way off at present.

25/1 is also the price for the winner of the race Elgin who made it two from two over hurdles for Alan King. His trainer was impressed that the four-year-old seemed to have improved for his run at Newcastle and he settled much better for Wayne Hutchinson here. In terms of future plans, he could go back to Kempton for the Dovecote prior to having a crack at the Festival.

The Grade 1 Future Champions Novice Hurdle at Leopardstown can often throw up a nice horse and this time around it went the way of Saturnas who went one better than when chasing home Airlie Beach at Fairyhouse earlier this month. He seemed to appreciate more forceful tactics and whilst I suspect he could come up short in both races, I think he could end up in the Neptune come March.


 
Neptune


Willie Mullins has another couple of potential runners in the Neptune including Bacardys who made no mistake when getting off the mark at the second attempt over hurdles earlier this week. Having fallen on his first attempt, the five-year-old still made the odd jumping mistake but had plenty in hand when making his move around the home turn. He clearly has an engine having won the Aintree bumper last year and his trainer intimated afterwards that he could step up in trip next time. He is as big as 20/1 for the Neptune, but we are unlikely to know what race he is lining up in until much nearer the time.


Battleford also managed to get back to winning ways this afternoon when getting the better of a prolonged duel with Coeur Joyeux at Leopardstown. The five-year-old made quite a few errors on the way round but he definitely seemed to appreciate the step up in trip and he could even go up in trip again. His trainer suggested afterwards that the five-year-old may not be fully fit yet because of his size and whilst further progress can’t be ruled out, he is going to have to take a good step forward to be of interest for the Spring Festivals.
 


Triumph


There were quite a number of reputations put to the test in this division in the last week and the one who emerged most favourably was Defi Du Seuil who assumed sole favouritism with an impressive victory in the Finale Hurdle at Chepstow. Philip Hobbs’ three-year-old was well fancied beforehand and had no trouble brushing aside the smart Evening Hush on the run to the third last before stretching clear in the closing stages. He did get a little lonely late on as he made a couple of jumping errors but he had plenty in hand and coasted home to win by thirteen lengths. He does seem to enjoy a bit of cut in the ground so were the ground to come up quick at Cheltenham, it would pose something of a question mark but he is very exciting and at this stage he looks a leading contender for the race.

In fact, JP McManus looks to hold a strong hand with the army of juveniles at Joseph O’Brien’s disposal and he also introduced a nice horse of Nicky Henderson’s at Kempton on Tuesday in Charli Parcs. This was the horse’s British debut having won a hurdle at Enghien in November and he jumped very well on just his second start. He raced clear of his rivals once sent into the lead at the third last and Noel Fehily barely had to move on him. He was much the best on the day despite conceding at least 5lb to all his rivals and he looks a smart prospect with the Triumph in mind.

Before Christmas, Joseph O’Brien’s Landofhopeandglory was towards the head of most lists but he now finds himself as big as 12/1 having finished second to old rival Bapaume at Leopardstown on Boxing Day.  The pair had met at Fairyhouse at the beginning of the month but Willie Mullins’ gelding seemed to benefit from the run and in receipt of 3lb, he was able to reverse the placings. I suspect that there will be a couple of horses we haven’t seen yet who will be popular for the Triumph but these two set a decent standard and I don’t see them being too far away on the day.

Another one to throw into the mix is Meri Devie who made a successful start to her hurdling career at Leopardstown the following day. The three-year-old was beaten less than five lengths in Group 1 company in May on the flat and ran out a ready winner here from the well-touted Housesofparliament. Ruby Walsh believes that she will improve for the run both in terms of her jumping as well as fitness and the 7lb allowance she would receive in the Triumph makes her of serious interest. Further back in the field was Queen’s Vase winner Sword Fighter who will need to jump better if he is to make an impact in this sphere.


 
Novice Chasers


Arkle


The top two in the market both had a run in the past week with Min being the first to showcase his talents on Boxing Day. He was sent off the 4/5F in a race which included Identity Thief but that rival only made it half way down the back straight  as following a few notable errors, he was pulled up and found to be lame. In contrast, Willie Mullins’ five-year-old jumped impeccably out in front and had his rivals in trouble on the run to the last. He made a strange shape at the final fence but got over safely and raced away up the run-in to win impressively. He has a few lengths to find with Altior on last season’s Supreme but the Mullins camp believe that he wasn’t himself that day, so a closer race could well be on the cards.

Over at Kempton, Altior had no problem seeing off three rivals to land the Grade 2 Wayward Lad Novices’ Chase. The six-year-old jumped well the whole way round and having been given a little bit of rein, he moved through to lead at the third last before coasting clear under Noel Fehily. All roads now appear to head towards Cheltenham and the rematch of last year’s Supreme and at this stage it looks hard to split them.

As for the third home in last year’s Supreme, Buveur D’Air is set to make his second start over fences at Haydock tomorrow. That race is over the best part of 2m3f so it will be interesting to see how he goes up in trip.


 
RSA


The Grade 1 Novice Chase at Leopardstown today threw up a few clues with Jessica Harrington’s Our Duke getting the better of Coney Island and Disko in a close finish. The winner had made quite an impression when winning at Navan a few weeks ago and showed a fine attitude to see off his two rivals and land a first Grade 1. With Cheltenham in mind he will need to sharpen up his jumping, as he made the odd error on the way round but the RSA looks made for him and he is now a general 10/1 second favourite behind Bellshill, who won at Limerick on Boxing Day.

The runner-up Coney Island didn’t lose much in defeat and could also head for the RSA, whilst the fourth home Martello Tower could be an interesting one for the 4 mile National Hunt Chase, although he may need softer ground to be seen to best effect.

On this side of the Irish Sea, Might Bite has to come into consideration for the RSA as he would have no doubt run out a ready winner of the Kauto Star Novices’ Chase but for falling at the final fence. He was well clear at the time and that mistake aside, he jumped pretty well. He also showed a tendency to jump to his left at times which suggests Cheltenham will suit and as long as he is none the worse for this fall, he looks a likely runner.

 
Misc Races


Mares Hurdle


Gordon Elliott’s Missy Tata has now won her last five starts following a convincing success in the Listed Irish Independent Hurdle at Limerick yesterday. She looks to be improving at a rapid rate and although her connections believe she will make a fine chaser next year, they also think she can pick up a big prize before the end of the season. She could now head straight to Cheltenham and whilst no target has been confirmed, this race looks the most likely unless she goes down the handicapping route.

We also got a first look at Kotkikova yesterday who was a prolific winner in her native France and she shaped with some promise over 3m at Leopardstown. This was as far as she had raced over in her career to date and she looked as though it might have been a bit far for her in the closing stages. I would not be surprised to see her drop back in trip next time and the Mares’ Hurdle looks a sensible target for her.


 
Cross-Country


News filtered through this morning that last year’s runner-up and ante-post favourite Josie’s Orders will miss the race having suffered an injury. His stablemate Cantlow who won at Cheltenham in November is now the general 4/1 favourite with most firms ahead of the likes of Alechi Inois, Quantitativeeasing and Any Currency.

 
Bumper


The picture for the Champion Bumper looks as murky as always at the moment with most of those towards the head of the ante-post lists trained by Willie Mullins. He introduced his latest smart recruit at Leopardstown yesterday as Carter McKay made a winning debut under Patrick Mullins. A wide margin winner of an Irish point, he was subsequently bought for £165,000 by David Redvers and races in the colours of Pearl Bloodstock. He had to work pretty hard to get the job done on this occasion but I’m sure his connections will be keen to get him to the Festival and he is available at as big as 25/1 for the Champion Bumper.


 
Bets


CILAOS EMERY (Supreme Novices) – 1pt e/w @ 12/1 NRNB (Sky Bet)


The first of two bets suggested this week is this four-year-old who made quite an impression a couple of weeks ago when winning at Navan. The form of that race has been boosted with the runner-up Joey Sasa having won at Leopardstown on Boxing Day and I suspect that the winner could be creeping up the Willie Mullins pecking order. With the below-par run of Jenkins at the weekend, the race looks to have a much more open look to it and it has been pleasing to see this gelding attract support in recent days. Like most of the Willie Mullins novice hurdlers it is hard to know for sure which race they will run in but we have the security of No Runner No Bet in this race so I think he is worth a bet. He should be stepped up in grade before long but his trainer spoke fondly of him after his latest win and I suspect we haven’t seen the best of him yet.

 
NATIVE RIVER (Gold Cup) – 1pt e/w @ 9/1 (Betway)


Despite the performance of Thistlecrack at Kempton on Boxing Day, I still have my reservations about his jumping, especially given the way that he tackled the open ditches. I therefore think it is worth looking elsewhere for an angle and in a race in which a lot of the contenders are known entities, the big improver in the race looks to be Native River, who has gone from strength to strength this term.  I was really impressed with the way he drew clear of his rivals at Chepstow before the weight started to take its toll and he looks ready for a crack at Grade 1 company again. His jumping is a major asset as well as his stamina which bodes well for a Gold Cup horse and the potential absence of Coneygree could mean he is allowed to dictate from the front. I think it will take a good one to get past him on the day and at 9/1, I think he looks a good each-way bet, especially with so many doubts surrounding a number of his rivals.


 
Ante-Post Portfolio

JEZKI (Stayers Hurdle) – 1pt e/w @ 14/1 (bet365, Betfred)

CHARBEL (JLT Novices’ Chase) – 0.5pt e/w @ 33/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook)

CILAOS EMERY (Supreme Novices) – 1pt e/w @ 12/1 NRNB (Sky Bet)

NATIVE RIVER (Gold Cup) – 1pt e/w @ 9/1 (Betway

Warren Greatrex is the man to follow at Lingfield over the jumps.
In the last 5 years he has had 10 winners from just 23 runners at a profit of 26pts
6 of those winners were over hurdles from just 10 races.
On Tuesday he has just one runner over hurdles
1.30 Ling: The Nipper 11/8 Paddy Power
(also has one runner over fences 1.00 Missed Approach)

I'm not sure all their names G'

I'm not sure all their names G'

Dark Horse for the Gold Cup - Maybe?
Alary 33/1 Bet365
 

3.00 Wolverhampton: Seven Clans @ 3/1 Bet365
First time blinkers seemed to help a good deal lto when he finished a fine runner-up of a lowered mark in a better race. Drop in class and step up in trip should suit perfectly. He also has a fine draw and master Kirby in the saddle - big chance to get a second career win under his belt finally, I reckon. 

Plumpton 2:50 .Morney Wing @ 12/1 bet365 e/w thanks

Morney Wing.......from Charlie Mann yard the 8yo has won three chases from 2m 3f to 3m on ground varying from soft to heavy with two of those chase wins and three 3rd place finishes in only 12 races coming at this yard as he was previously at Ms Sandra Hughes yard in Ireland before coming over in September 2015,

He ran 30 days ago in a chase at Sandown over 3m 5f good to soft and finished third of 13 runners behind Rocky Creek beaten 2.75 lengths this was only his second time over this distance and both times finishing 3rd , He's up 2lbs for that place finish running off 123 ,

He travels to Plumpton for first time and Jockey Noel Fehily is in saddle for first time too and conditions will be ideal

P2.20 Kayflin e/w 33/1 Betfair

Table includes those who played at least 3 months
(Sorted into amount of bets posted)

 
Monthly Winners

Very well done those who took home some wages.
As per a big Thanks to the admin guy 

I Cant wait G'
It's my Fav Race, ahhhhhh the ROAR!!

My Daughter has VERY VERY kindly arranged as a Christmas present for me to attend Cheltenham for the Gold Cup  
Never been and still a little in shock I'll be there on March the 17th 
It's been on my short bucket list for many many years 

My Daughter has VERY VERY kindly arranged as a Christmas present for me to attend Cheltenham for the Gold Cup  
Never been and still a little in shock I'll be there on March the 17th 
It's been on my short bucket list for many many years 

My Daughter has VERY VERY kindly arranged as a Christmas present for me to attend Cheltenham for the Gold Cup  
Never been and still a little in shock I'll be there on March the 17th 
It's been on my short bucket list for many many years 

Happy Birthday Mr BillyHills .........G'  
15:15 Kempton Park - Win Bet 5/4 Betfred etc
 

Good Stuff 

Good Stuff