hristofor

Challenger Champaign qualification
Sem Verbeek vs. Keenan Mayo 
=> Keenan Mayo @ 3.77 Sbobet stake: 4/10
Mayo is a very solid prospect, he had a very good junior career, beating top prospects like Brandon Nakashima or Nicolas Mejia in 2018 there, both regular Top 5 junior players. He competed on a high level there and is training at the USTA Training Center West at the StubHub Center in Carson so he has a good support. We can expect some things from him in the future i guess but first Mayo will play for Illinois at College so he decided to go the college way of a tennis player, they gave him a Wild Card for the qualies here: https://fightingillini.com/roster.aspx?rp_id=8450&path= ; Yesterday he beat Maxime Mora in three sets but looked very good, served well and played well although it was a close match for two sets.Verbeek is a solid opponent, ballbasher style, good serve and left-handed, also a (former) college player but the Dutch is a bit limited, could be enough on a fast indoor court but i think it will be a tight match where Mayo will have his chances. 

If you want to see most of my bets for this weekend then go to the FA Cup forum as that is where they are. With only BetVictor having priced up the FA Trophy that means there aren't that many league games to get my teeth stuck into so I only have the one bet in the National League North.
Hereford v FUCM
I wrote last week that FCUM look like they were improving and it was a bit frustrating for them to blow their lead that night only for them to come out and easily beat Blyth on the Saturday. Hopefully it can pay off backing them here because they look a big price to do so. I also opposed Hereford on that Tuesday night and they also got a point against AFC Telford. They also got a point last Saturday, but their run without a win continues and although there are signs of improvement given they have drawn 3 of their last 4 games, it is hard to understand how FCUM are such a big price given FCUM have still had the better recent results. They have actually been backed in which isn't a surprise, but I still think 11/4 (Betfred) is too big and I suspect the price will continue to fall.
FCUM 1pt @ 11/4 with Betfred

As I often write I love punting on the FA Cup as you usually get some great betting opportunities and I never really understand why people want to leave it alone. I think in some ways it can be easier to make money from it than the league action. I am going to tip up a couple of upsets, but nothing at really huge odds has really grabbed me this year. I’m sure a big price will land, but there didn’t seem an obvious candidate for me this time around.
 
Maidenhead v Portsmouth
This game is the live Saturday lunchtime match on BT Sport and it is easy to see why they choose it, but I would be really shocked if we see an upset here. Maidenhead are in desperate form at the moment having lost 6 on the bounce in the league and they needed a replay to see off National League South side Chippenham to reach the 1st Round. Now defeats to the likes of Salford and Leyton Orient I can understand, but they have lost to Havant and Dover in their last two matches. Granted they had their keeper sent off in the Havant game whilst it was still 1-0 and they had to play with an outfield play in goals for over 50 minutes, but to lose 7-0 still isn’t great. In those 6 games they have conceded 23 times and scored just once and I think they are just about the worst side in the National League at the moment. Portsmouth on the other-hand are the best team they could possibly be facing as they sit 3 points clear at the top of League 1 at the moment. The have lost just one league game all season and they should be able to see off the home side with little fuss. Obviously they are priced up accordingly but the 10/11 for them to cover the -1 handicap makes a lot of appeal.
 
Aldershot v Bradford
Another game where a National League side takes on a League 1 side, but Bradford are at the opposite end of the table. They have lost 13 of their 17 games in League 1 and have just 10 points. If we narrow it down to their last 10 games they have picked up just 4 points, scored only 6 goals and have lost 6 games on the bounce. They won’t be looking forward to going to an Aldershot side that are very strong at home. They don’t look the same side who has reached the play-offs in the last couple of seasons, but their home form has been very strong with them winning 6 of their 10 games at home and losing just 2 of them. One of those defeats was to Maidstone and it’s fair to say Aldershot completely dominated the game and should have won. This tie is just the sort of match that I look for as a possible upset as Bradford will be very low on confidence and Aldershot have northing to lose. Betfair are best about a home win at 11/5.
 
Chesterfield v Billericay
The backing Chesterfield to draw theory proved profitable again last week, although Harrogate left it very late to equalize. For new readers Chesterfield have now drawn 8 of their last 10 league games. They might be playing a team from the league below this week, but obviously Billericay are no ordinary Step 2 team. I think they are more than capable of holding their own and they can easily get a replay. The draw is priced up at 12/5 with Bet365.
 
Maidstone v Macclesfield
I rarely bet in the Football League, but my first ante-post bet of the year was backing Macclesfield to go straight back down. Fair play to them on wining the National League title last season, but they weren’t the best team in the league (something Tranmere are showing this season). They have very little money and with John Askey moving on it was always going to be a tough task. So far so good with that bet as they have only picked up 7 points, winning just the once. Now Maidstone are hardly the best side in the National League and they have only won once at home in the league, but I think this is just the sort of game that will see the home side perform at their best which will make them very dangerous against a team who are basically a National League side anyway. Bet365 and Betfair go 11/5 about a home win and that makes plenty of appeal.
 
Barnet v Bristol Rovers
In the 2013/14 Conference Premier season these two teams finished first and second, which is probably why the BBC have moved it to a Sunday lunchtime. A bit like how Macclesfield weren’t the best team last season I thought Bristol Rovers were the best team that season (this coming from someone who backed Barnet for the title ante-post) and they have done well since finding themselves in League 1. Barnet are already back in Non-League football and they have had no luck with injuries this season. I think John Still has a strong squad and could still make the play-offs, but performances have been a bit in and out and they weren’t great in a 2-0 defeat by Maidstone last week. Rovers’ away form has been pretty solid as they may have lost 4 of their 9 away league games, but they were all by a single goal. They have drawn 3 and won twice. This is obviously a much easier task than they usually have and they should be odds on to win this in my view so 21/20 (William Hill and Skybet) looks a good bet to me.
 
FA Cup Acca
There are 5 teams who I think look bankers this weekend and the acca pays just over 5/1 with Skybet. I have already mentioned Portsmouth so they certainly go in. On the Friday night the BBC have decided to show Haringey v AFC Wimbledon which was an easy choice and people may think because the Dons are struggling in League 1 that their might be an upset. I can’t see it though as Haringey are a below average Step 3 side and the gulf in class is huge. It is also worth noting that Haringey had a pretty kind draw to make it to the 1st Round. Another Step 3 side Met Police are at home to League 2 Newport and again it is hard to see how Newport don’t have a fairly comfortable afternoon. Tranmere host National League South side Oxford City and they should be too strong for them. Finally on the Sunday Hitchin, who are another struggling Step 3 side, host National League side Solihull Moors. Moors are having a superb season and can add to that by making it to the 2nd Round.
Portsmouth -1 3pts @ 10/11 with Skybet and Betfred
Aldershot 1pt @ 11/5 with Betfair
Chesterfield v Billericay 1pt draw @ 12/5 with Bet365
Maidstone 1pt @ 11/5 with Bet365 and Betfair
Bristol Rovers 2.5pts @ 21/20 with William Hill and Skybet
AFC Wimbledon/Portsmouth/Newport/Tranmere/Solihull 1pt acca @ 5/1 with Skybet

F
 
Yeah I am very surprised by that although but there we go. Aldershot sadly couldn’t hold on but the other 3 bets were winners and my one non league bet won at a huge price as well.

GOOD match from Gomes, had some problems in the first but came back strong and finished well. 
Have some good picks for tomorrow, will post it later on.
Total bets: 28
Won: 16
Void: 0
Lost: 12
Staked: 84 Units
Back: +104.02 Units
Yield: 124%
 
+100 units won here in the last few weeks, let's finish the season strong !!!

Ch Champaign Qualif.
Gui Gomes vs. Aron Hiltzik
=> Gui Gomes @ 5.0 Betfair stake: 2/10
Gomes tall, huge serve, good power in his shots. Hiltzik of course solid enough to be the favorite but he is too inconsistent, has some bad losses or even sets lost to average players. Odds are looking good enough to try. Small stake!

Event: ITF Women Shengzen 
Carol Zhao to beat Ivana Jorovic @ 3.97 with Pinnacle
Danka Kovinic to beat Yafan Wang @ 3.08 with Pinnacle
Valentini Grammatikopoulou to beat Saisai Zheng @ 3.57 with Pinnacle
Carol Zhao is defending champion of this event, and she won her last two matches as underdog. I'm not a believer in Jorovic.. so considering this info.. of course there is pure value on Zhao. I've also seen her play, and she has some skills. Other two matches is also value.. Saisai Zheng was eliminated in QF of Shengzen tournament earlier this year. 
I fully expect at the very minimum one of these matches to win, and predict that atleast 2 matches win.  I recommend large flat stakes across all three because if two win there is enormous profit, and if you 1 of these wins.. you are taking no loss, and on a pure freeroll.  
You can thank me later, I have 3 bets still pending, and all will be tallied in good time..
Cheers everyone     

Challenger Knoxville
Michael Redlicki vs. Reilly Opelka 
=> Michael Redlicki @ 4.08 Pinnacle stake: 2/10
Two big serving guys on a fast indoor court, do not expect a lot of breaks here to be honest, can see a tight match with some tiebreakers, Redlicki was very clutch yesterday, looked good vs. Arevalo. Opelka also was playing good. Could be a good match were some small things decide who wins. 

Challenger Knoxville
Michael Redlicki vs. Marcelo Arevalo
=> Michael Redlicki @ 2.21 Pinnacle stake: 4/10
Well, i can't say i was impressed with Arevalo last week in Charlottesville. He lost 46 26 to Serdarusic and looked out of form, return was weak and his serve also wasn't working. Despite the fact Arevalo has the natural abilities to play solid on indoor courts as he is tall, has a good serve and net game and power in his groundstrokes he simply is not having any special results there in the past. His record is 5-12 overall and he is in his late 20s so i doubt it will be much better one day. His opponent should like the conditions, Michael Redlicki is a very good prospect who finished his collegiate career in 2017 at Arkansas. Redlicki is very tall, has a huge lefty serve and knows how dictate points. I doubt he is the underdog here considering his performances in the qualification tournament and Arevalo playing super weak last week.

Red Star Belgrade vs Liverpool
The Champions League is back this week and Group C delivers our first preview. Serbian club Red Star Belgrade will play Premier League side Liverpool and with the Reds destroying their hosts in the previous clash 4-0 just 2 weeks ago it's a chance for the home team to regain some respect. It kicks off at 5:55pm tonight at the Rajko Mitic Stadium.
Red Star Belgrade are one of the great European teams. Younger members of this forum might not remember their famous 1991 European Cup victory on penalties against a brilliant Marseille side that included the likes of Jean-Pierre Papin, Basile Boli, and Chris Waddle. That said, the Red Star side had a lot of names that would go on to do great things such as Robert Prosinecki, Sinisa Mihajlovic, and Dejan Savicevic.
This current squad pales in comparison to that side but they remain the dominant side in Serbian football. Unfortunately, they need a win here if they are to realistically keep their hopes of progressing to the last 16 alive. They have picked up 1 point in a 0-0 draw with Napoli so far. That game was at home. In fact, they are undefeated at home in European action this season with Napoli, Red Bull Salzburg, Spartak Trnava, Suduva Marijampole, and Spartaks Jurmala all visiting Belgrade and failing to walk away with a win. This won't be easy for Liverpool in a hostile atmosphere.
Liverpool will be hoping to stretch their lead at the top of the group. Victories over PSG and Red Star Belgrade have ensured the solitary defeat to Napoli away hasn't been too detrimental. It'll be tough for Jurgen Klopp's men who will likely not win by more than a single goal.
I'm not going to back Red Star to get the win here but I'd be surprised if Liverpool romped home with a convincing victory. The home side have failed to score in their last two home matches in European competition but they're also hard to break down having conceded just 1 goal in 5 home European games this season. If I was backing a correct score I'd say Liverpool to win 1-0.
Total Goals Scored Under 2.5 @ 2.65 with Unibet
Red Star Belgrade +2 @ 2.35 with SportingBet
@vasilli07, @Xcout, @Icongene, @KikoCy, @DrBetter, @Duuc, @DrO, @immortal--, @Notorious, @betcatalog, @KingSoccertips, @discipline, @Pep004, @HastGill1, @ElPrincipito007, @salmonman, @DW_United, @allthethings, @MightyWell, @liamcorrigan86, @mijOsim, @dorleywilliams, @soccerprediction123, @TOTTI3, @LePapo, @seifer365, @MPLouis, @Jack A, @JJG, @Pipoca, @neilovan, @wcz, @newjack, @matt-e-matticle, @EBTA, @cluelessG, @mtom, @Marek76, @allyhibs, @alani42, @jazzman02, @hristofor, @fhuefdsa and @WinningAdvice, I've gone for a big call this week with a lot of people backing a big Liverpool win. I'm not sure. No easy games in Europe away these days. What are your thoughts on these tips?

ATP Next Gen Finals
Stefanos Tsitsipas vs. Frances Tiafoe 
=> Frances Tiafoe @ 2.89 Pinnacle stake: 2/10
As i said i think Tsitsipas is not at 100% here and he looked solid yesterday but Munar was making a lot of easy errors. I think Tiafoe is a harder matchup. Odds are looking juicy.

Thailand F8
Abhinav Sanjeev Shanmugam vs. Igor Smilansky
=> Abhinav Sanjeev Shanmugam @ 4.22 Sbobet stake: 1/10
First time i saw Shanmugam play was at the beginning of the season in Chennai Challenger in February where he beat Ivan Nedelko after winning three matches in qualifying too. Shanmugam is a really aggressive player with huge serve and strong forehand, he has some kind of potential, of course he is more a ballbasher but he has some talent and i doubt his opponent Smilansky is out of reach here. Smilansky almost only plays Futures, he is solid but his level depends on his daily shape and i think he is beatable on a bad day.

ATP Next Gen Finals
Alex de Minaur vs. Liam Caruana 
=> Liam Caruana @ 9 5dimes stake: 1/10
Another try, lower stake than Munar who did well vs Tsitsipas. Those matches at Next Gen finals are always tight and tough to predict as the formata is completly different to normal tennis: No ad scoring, time clock, sets to 4....and so on. I think it might favor the underdog here. Odds are dropped on de Minaur and i think he is the solid fav here but odds around ~ 9 here are way too high.
Caruana is solid, i saw him vs Johnson in Auckland at the beginning of the season and he has some talent. Last years Wild Card Quinzi did very well at the tournament, losing five setters to Rublev and Chung and won a set vs Shapovalov too. Expect another solid performance by Caruana this year in all three matches. Maybe it's worth to try him at high odds like this.

One of the rare occasions that Liverpool can say they visited a bigger club than themselves. And please Stevie Day and the rest, it's not "Red Star", it's Crvena Zvezda, you don't translate the names of the clubs.
 

ITF Colina
Ivania Martinich vs. Fernanda Labrana 
=> Fernanda Labrana @ 3.27 Pinnacle stake: 3/10
Labrana was Top 50 junior player, competed on the highest international level there and then decided to switch to go to college. Texas signed her last year: https://texassports.com/news/2017/11/27/womens-tennis-signs-chilean-standout-fernanda-labra-a.aspx
Now she is playing for Texas, going into her second year and playing some pro tournaments from time to time.
Martinich is 25 years old, was never ranked higher than 692 and is average imo. She had a couple of bad losses this year and she hasn't played for almost 1,5 months now.
I think this is pretty equal matchup. 

No the 97th minute goal meant that bet won as I tipped the draw. The Bedford goal was a penalty as well 

i just checked my stats since my comeback here in october and i am shocked about the numbers...
Total bets: 19
Won: 11
Void: 0
Lost: 8
Staked: 63.5 Units
Back: +81.92 Units
Yield: 129%

Challenger Knoxville qualifying
Patrick Kypson @ 2.51 Sbobet stake: 5/10
Michael Redlicki @ 2.63 Sbobet stake: 4/10
Kypsons opponent Draper had a good run but he was playing weak futures most of the time and Kypson is playing on another level, a lot of challenger recently and competed with very solid opposition. I doubt he is the underdog here, i would think odds should be the opposite.
Redlicki vs. Fawcett looks like a 50/50 matchup, both big serving guys with huge groundstrokes playing on a fast indoor surface. Redlicki has a solid 10-2 record indoor in 2018 beating quality opposition like A. Pavic, A. Gomez, B. Schnur, F. Peliwo or B. Gojo.
 
 

Great shouts lads!

18-23 +19.61 units
Karen Khachanov to beat Novak Djokovic @ 5.7 with Heritage
My belief is Djokovic cannot win every masters event. I have watched several of his matches this tournament, and he definitely looks worn down.  The surface Khachanov I think likes alot, and I think the desire and fitness is there for a possible huge title in paris..these odds are usually my preference @ close to 5 or 6. 
@TugaPunter I am happy you posted your picks even if it didn't work out.. Those were very difficult matches to predict i think. 

Majchrzak just couldn't get back into the match mentally after missing a lot of BPs, shame about that. A bad week, thankfully not one of many, not sure how many bets I'm going to go for until next week's smaller events.

18-22 +20.61 units
Fabio Fognini to beat Roger Federer @ 5.75 with Bovada
First match for Roger on these courts. Fabio has already played some doubles. Also Fabio should be much fresher in this match Rogers going to be tired from the last tournament and the ground game is very important in Paris with the heavy slow courts and Fabio could take a vantage of that

PL stats 17-22 +17.36 units
Jia-Jing Lu to beat Nao Hibino @ 4.25 with Bovada
Hibino Could be tired from a long match with Lisicki and the Chinese player surprised us in the last match when she won as a big underdog convincingly 6161 in the last two sets

Very first match here Lu cash at 4.6 odds. This was the first post that I put out this week right behind czech punter opening the thread.. khazaniuk also in a dog fight third set @5.05 odds. More of these matches will probably cash.
Update: second match Khazaniuk cash 5.05 

Elias Ymer to beat Maximilian Marterer at 2.10 with Paddy Power
The home conditions are the clincher for me here, as Ymer has nearly always been able to perform reasonably well in Sweden. Both guys are playing rather poorly these days, but I don't see what makes the home guy the underdog honestly - he's not that worse than Marterer overall and nearly all the different situational factors are working for him as well.