moggis
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Posts posted by moggis
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So sorry to reply only three years later ! I was on here trying to find a really good article about outright sports betting by someone with Blue in their name . The short answer is you should be betting on a variety of markets and build up a portfolio of positions. Also betting from preseason is too early in my opinion.
Sorry once again ? -
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Not only is sports betting a learnable game , you can learn enough to be one a profitable bettor in just one year . However two years is a lot more likely .
The very first thing to learn is that betting on short term markets of any kind really is a spectacularly stupid way of betting on sport for profit .
Long term markets are way way easier to beat .
But the OP is like most other gamblers he will ignore what I’ve written as he only wants to bet on short term markets or because he doesnt believe me .
So really he’s asking are there any rules for betting on short term markets .
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By the way the thing that everyone should be thinking about is the answer to this question,
Since we all know that long term markets have big overrounds and since it’s clear from the amount I laid out I must have placed a large number of bets (and I most certainly did ,a very large number ) and since I cashed out 100s and 100s of bets which we all know are poor value ,where on earth did the value come from ?
I mean to say it’s virtually impossible for so many bets to have been value overall isn’t it ?
And of course they were all placed with the same bookie so I wasn’t even looking for best prices . And the average number of selections per bet was 11 -12!
So where did the value come from ?
Somebody on this thread ridiculed me for saying (on another forum ) that the bets I do aren’t value even though they’re profitable.
I stand by that remark . The overwhelming majority of the bets I place I have no doubt whatsoever aren’t value .
And if that’s true it means that almost everything you read about betting is wrong doesn’t it?
You don’t have to find value to make money . Only on short term markets .
But surely that can’t be true can it ?
All the mathematicians and know alls and experts think it isn’t .
But I think they’re wrong .
But if the bets weren’t value then how did I win ? Luck ?
Well two years ago I missed out on a far higher amount because Doncaster lost their last four games and were 1-0 up at second bottom Hartlepool with 16 minutes to go on the last day of the season.
So probably not luck .
So who’s right ? If the experts are right then where’s the value ?
While if I’m right you have to wonder why so many smart people could be so wrong and of course how I made a profit .
But either way it’s interesting ,no ?
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3 hours ago, Zico10 said:
@moggis Actually not sure I can pm you on here! Shame as I've wanted to pick your brain for ages ( well about 2 years! )when I first read your arguments for long term betting. I've never quite understood the stick you got and other punters resistance to it.
Oh.
Well the fact is that the best way for anyone to learn how to do this is to just do it!
So long as the stakes are very low you simply can’t go very wrong .
And that’s because this also happens to very very entertaining.
So merely by dint of placing a dozen long term accumulators on various markets and on selections that are mainly low odds you are going to have an interest in a great many games.
It will also make you notice how the results affect the long term prices in lots of markets .
It really really is a huge pity that few people even think of placing accas on outright markets during the season.
They are missing out on a great deal of entertainment .
And at a time when gambling gets nothing but bad press .
Well if you need to know something you can try asking on this thread I suppose .
However the way I do this is certainly not the best way . This subject is so complex that I’ve barely scratched the surface.
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Oh yes ,now I’m banned*from bet 365 .
And I’m absolutely gutted.
Im totally bereft as their site is the second easiest (to skybet) to use for the bets I do and they also have the markets I require .
And because this is a very straightforward season and I expected to win a lot in May but now all my bets can’t be hedged at all .
Nor do I dare use friends to place bets on for me with them as it will be obvious .
* well restricted to 30p for an accumulator not totally banned
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8 hours ago, Zico10 said:
moggis I've read your posts on this site and I'm sure on others too and it's inspired me to try the longer term season bets. I've still not worked out how you do it so well! My bet this season is looking ok so far but I can't say I'm totally confident it will come in. Anyway keep up the impressive work, i'm sure there's more than just me who have started looking at this market because of your faith in it ( and your returns!!! ).
Oh wow.
That comment has made my day Zico. I expected to be told that this must be doctored .
In thst case let me point out that trying to win a million in a year is stupid .
There are too many problems with limits on markets you want to bet on .
But I felt I had to obtain overwhelming evidence that all the mathematicians and other experts are wrong if I was ever to succeed in getting across the very important message that betting singles on 90 minute markets really isn’t all it’s cracked up to be .
And that at the very least those who do somehow make money from 90 minute market are simultaneously missing out by not betting on outright markets so their profit from 90 minute markets isn’t as good as they think .
The secret Zico to what I do is that it really isn’t very hard !
(But if you’re only doing one or two bets it’s nearly impossible. I’m afraid you need to place quite a lot of bets usually)
Many long term markets are surprisingly easy to trade and what people need to do is just take that on board and think about why that is .
What weakness does a bookmaker have in long term markets ?
The other thing is that they MUST be bet in multiples.
Do not not listen to people who say they shouldn’t .
Thanks once again. If you need any help by all means pm me .
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Hi, I dont know any details about Wimbledon but I do believe that relegation bets placed at this time of year are quite risky .
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Perhaps this might be the place to ask why it is that so few people bet on outright markets?
I can understand why profitable short term gamblers might not want to tie up money but even people who aren’t profitable don’t seem interested .
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Oh I forgot.
The OP says that he doesn’t believe there’s such a thing as bad luck in the long term ie it evens out .
Im not 100% sure but I don’t believe that’s true.
There are so many100s of millions of bettors that some are bound to be winning by pure chance even if theyve placed 10,000 bets.
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The nightingale system is the best system for most people.
Only bet when you hear a nightingale singing .
(Doesn’t need to be in Berkeley Square)
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A couple of things .
Firstly I’m not too sure what the strategy is as I didn’t read the thread too carefully but I didn’t have a problem with most of the selections .
In fact he was a bit unlucky with the Stoke Swansea one as the Swans had a lot of injuries.
Anyway ,there’s little point in making a profit from the lesser known leagues because you will soon get restricted or banned by the bookies if you start betting higher stakes while betfair I assume won’t have the liquidity .
Secondly I do wonder why anyone would ever give away exactly how they find value on a forum .
Value in soccer markets is becoming more and more scarce and thus to share it seems the height of madness .
Its even more strange when people have apparently worked hard to find it .
Also ,in the case of Osters v Falkenborgs and not a few other selections it seems to me that if you asked 100 people to tip that match most would have gone for Falkenborgs anyway and so if you are testing a selection process or system etc you really should test it on games where the selection wouldn’t be made by any idiot .
Having said all that the OP seems a lovely person who I’m sure will one day make a great husband and father (especially after he’s stopped betting).
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I would like to ask the OP why he bets on football at all?
Surely that’s the first thing he should be asking.
What made him decide that competing with millions of others to try to find ever decreasing value in the vague hope of possibly making a few thousand a year was a sensible thing to do.?
One person on this very thread said they tried for seven years without success!
Thats seven years spent actually working stuff out and spending time creating a ratings system or whatnot when they could have been doing something more useful.
In my opinion ,and I have to say pretty much everything I’ve seen on gambling forums seems to back me up,trying to make money from 90 minute soccer markets is a form of madness .
However there is good news .
If you really must bet on soccer you should know that by far the easiest way to make a profit is to bet on outright markets in multiples during the season.
Good luck
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Just bung a few £100 on Ronaldo to be Chsmpions League top scorer ever year with saver on Messi and save yourself a lot of hassle.
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@OP
Hi first of all thanks for a reasonably interesting thread.Better than most of the pointless nonsense you get online nowadays.
Im commenting because you seem to be in earnest and because I’m stuck in some Northern town with nothing better to do.
Honestly it’s like the beginning of Sean of the Dead up here.But then I assume the whole of the Northern 2/3 of the country is like that .
So first of all Im curious to know what exactly your aim is ?
Do you bet to make money ?
I suspect you don’t . Because you will never make money betting on the more obscure leagues .
Because obviously as soon as any bookie notices you making regular profits from such markets you will be banned or heavily restricted.
So you’re just seeing whether you can come up with a way to beat the bookie just for the hell of it ?
Then what ?
Secondly the answer to your question about value is no,
Its true that in short term markets you need to be betting value but it’s not true in long term markets ,
Thats why I never waste time betting on short term markets .Even if you find vslue you then get restricted.
Thirdly I note that many of your bets are on odds on shots . Do you really think it likely that that many odds on shots are value ?
Possibly but I m skeptical .
But if you really want to test your system you should in fact get yourself to pick out tips before you consult your system.
I suspect that you’d be betting on many of those selections anyway .
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On 02/01/2018 at 12:21 PM, Sir Puntalot said:
Not just football @robstars7 - the actual stats are 98% of people who bet lose money, and it's probably closer to 99% these days.
#top1% 
I agree that it’s probably 99% of punters who are long term losers but I’ve rarely seen anyone on a forum admit it so props to you.
In fact it’s worse than that ,of the 1% who win I’d suggest that most only make the equivalent of minimum wage once the time they spend watching games they wouldn’t otherwise have watched etc is taken into account .
But what baffles me is why ?
I mean I don’t know because I never bet on 90 minute markets ,but aren’t the tips on this very site profitable !?
Or if not on this site ,is there no site where there are profitable tips ?
If yes then doesn’t that suggest that almost all gamblers are stupid ?
I mean why on earth don’t they just do the tips of a site that provides winning tips instead of their own losing ones ?
Ok I think I get that apparently people -well let’s face it -men all think they’re so smart they can figure it out themselves but why don’t they just bet on the sites tips and paper trade their own ones until they’ve cracked it ? Or better still why can’t they pick up information from the the type of markets winning tipsters are profiting from ? I mean pro gamblers don’t like to sell tips because they risk giving away their edge yet here are tipsters merrily giving away their edge to every Tom Dick and Harry and still only 1 % can win !!
Im sorry but logically either no website is in actuality making a discernible profit in which case doesn’t that suggest that this is all one big giant con that works in favour of the bookies and the site owners or the overwhelming majority of gamblers really aren’t overly smart .
I think it speaks volumes that very very few women bet except to have an interest in a game .
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I was intrigued to read Sir Punterlots comment about bet 365 not banning people .
They and William Hill are the only well known bookies I still don’t get restricted with.
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Thanks . Funnily enough West Brom were heavily tipped for relegation preseason on another well known forum and I have to say the posters reasoning was very persuasive.
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On 16/05/2018 at 10:03 PM, StevieDay1983 said:
The 2017/18 Premier League season has come to a close. It was a brilliant season on the pitch but how did you fare off the pitch with your betting? Share any form or tables you have of your betting statistics in here. Feel free to just post any thoughts on which teams did well or poorly for you in the betting.
Personally, I had positive results with the BTTS and total goals scored. I struggled a bit with the outright markets which was disappointing. West Brom under Pardew proved particularly profitable because I anticipated he'd do a terrible job. Unfortunately, Everton and West Ham let me down a fair bit because they lacked consistency.
When you say you struggled a bit in the outright markets am I right in assuming thst it was mainly the relegation market (WBA notwithstanding) that let you down? If not which ones please ?
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Apart from what has already been said I dont understand how anyone can possibly have the faintest idea how well or badly a team is likely to perform in their next game (whether in relation to their normal performance or not ) unless they have just played very well or very badlly in which case they might be more likely to play less well or less badly .
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On 20/05/2018 at 7:55 PM, Data said:
True up to a point, so long as the winnings aren't going disproportionately to an individual. Accountant led management dictates the firm can do without winning punters. The only exception in my experience are the two UK based spread firms (NOT the Irish outfit who also only cater for losers)
My winning accounts are still active after more than 20 years. Okay, every bet I place is 'referred to trader' and occasionally (rather than usually) my stake is restricted or the quote shifted ~ but never a hint of account closure (and my total winnings are into six-figures)
Football is heavily analysed by possibly millions of people and consequently extremely difficult to crack. But like you it won't stop me trying either, I've not beaten the book over the long term, but I'm enjoying the research.
"Focus on the journey, not the destination. Joy is found not in finishing an activity but in doing it."
I was about to congratulate you on being a successful soccer bettor following your first two paragraphs but then you seem to not be a profitable football bettor according to the third paragraph?
So I take it your 6 figure winnings ( I assume you meant profits ?) are on other sports ? I’m curious to know which sports and if it’s not too much trouble what it is about you that you think enabled you to win? I’m also surprised to see thst none of your accounts has been closed .
Finally,I’m sorry to correct you but with respect you’re wrong to say football is hard to crack.
As I said earlier long term football markets are easy to beat.
edit it’s just occurred to me on rereading your post that the accounts you are referring to may be spread betting accounts . I’m not sure .
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On 02/04/2018 at 3:57 PM, Camden1984 said:
Cheers all, game over. We will sting them one day.
Good luck all
Indeed. I nearly managed it on Sunday but hit the bar. Oh well.
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Am I to understand that the Golden State Warriors are only the eighth best team in the Western conference ?
Wouldnt thst suugest there’s something wrong with the ratings system ?
Presumably anyone who thinks this ratings system is fine will have bet big on Utah Jazz ?
(I’m gonna have a bet on Utah just in case ,but I’m very sceptical . Presumably the best teams don’t try 100% until there’s something at stake as there would be in the play offs )
Holy Grail or Wholly Fail?
in Betting Systems & Strategy
Posted
Hi really sorry to take so long to reply . It’s definitely not stats based . I trade the markets and I myself put a lot of selections in my bets but I’d recommend 6-8 . Most of my selections really are blindingly obvious-either favourites or second favourites- and this really does work