moggis
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Posts posted by moggis
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@ StevieDay
Just been looking at the remaining games and I really think that if Fulham can win at Preston on Saturday there’s every chance they will catch you.
Of course they probably won’t win at Preston but if they do the race is well and truly on....
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On 26 January 2018 at 9:46 AM, Camden1984 said:
I'm not sure you understand how a cash out policy works the bookie will offer a cash out relative to the equity of your bet. Bet 365 and the rest will offer a cash out 10-15% less than the true equity of your bet Hills offer something like 20%, even if they gave the equivalent equity of a BET 365 in terms of equity it doesn't guarantee a profit lol the bet still needs to become profitable over time.
You would either be very bold or very stupid to not lay France when you have 600k riding.
Good luck either way
Hi,I'm sorry but I wasn't sure if this comment is aimed at me or not but on double checking I think it might well be so I'm replying on that basis .
The reason I wasn't sure is because I dont really know what I've said to elicit your comment .
I realise thst bookies only offer cash outs that are less than the equity of the bets.
It's my belief that its actually not difficult to place accumulators at certain points in the season that improve in the short term.
Its on that basis that I claim that if William Hill offered £1000s for your £10 bet people could make a living simply placing accumulators in December and cashing out in late February .
Im not claiming you could just place one accumulator and that one bet would be somehow guaranteed to improve rather that most of the time you could place quite a lot of accumulators enough of which would improve .
This is based on the idea (I think it's probably a fact but I will say idea ) that most teams that are doing well in December ( for example) tend to carry on doing well for several weeks at least.
Yes of course you'd either be bold or stupid not to lay France . Have I said anything to give the impression that I don't think that ?
Hopefully I won't need luck .
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@Camden 1984
Thanks for the kind words ,
I don't want to say anything about Bet 365s cash out policy so Iwill just repeat that were William Hill to offer several £1000 s on bets like this a person could make a living simply placing outright accas in December and cashing out in February . (Of course the odds on this specific bet would be much lower in December but you could increase the stake if you were confident you could get it back in February).
It would be interesting to know how much WHill need to offer you in order for you to cash out ? And why didn't you place it with bet 365 then if you knew WHills cash outs are bad ?
I wasn't saying I wouldn't hedge France if the rest of the bet came in I'm saying I wouldn't have bet on France at all . (Or I would have bet a lower stake and done France Germany and Brazil.)
The fact thst you are seemingly definitely intent on betting against `France if the rest of the bet comes in suggests you'd have been better off not including them . (Although their odds seem to have shortened since you placed the bet)
I'm also a bit surprised that ,if you are now going to bet on Blackburn ,that you didn't do so before when they were more than 6-1 but no mstter.
Im almost certainly going to make a profit on my bets this season because I'm constantly trading these markets but also because it's been very straightforward this year with Wolves ,Luton ,City ,Wigan ,Blackburn and now Tranmere finally perhaps coming good plus the usual suspects in Europe . I think I actually got 2-5 Bayern Munich in a couple of bets ,lol.
Every week there are opportunities and this is a very very entertaining way to bet and it astonishes me that 99% of gamblers never do such a bet during the season ,only at the beginning when it's far far harder usually .
So far as Blackburn is concerned up til a couple of weeks ago I thought they were going to win but Im increasingly impressed with Wigan . It could depend on who wins their meeting in a few weeks .
Anyway good luck once again. Be funny if England won the World Cup though.
I can see the headline now
Punter loses out on £600,000 as England and £200 million Kane Shock the World
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Golly . Well this is my bread and butter and one of the great sadnesses of my current life is thst I only have a few people to discuss seriously outright accas with.
I do such bets all the time and they are without doubt the easiest way to make money from betting on soccer . If anyone disagrees with that don't worry because it's my avowed aim to make it far better known over the next 4 years or so .
Okie dokie .
Firstly ,if WHill were to offer £1000s for such a position anyone could make a living placing many such bets in December and cashing out in late Feb early March. So they can't really.
Secondly,if you are thinking of laying France if Arsenal and Wigan should win why did you put them in the bet ?
Thirdly , the main reason you might want to bet Blackburn is in order to hedge your cash out amount because obviously if Wigans odds getter bigger your cash out gets smaller .
However since you have no intention of cashing out then hedging Blackburn right now might not be worth it until Arsenal progress further in the `Europa league and you can see who they get in say the QFs.
I also have some strong positions on Wigan but I've been partly hedging them by betting Blackburn for top 2 but their price in that market is too low now and so I will be betting on Blackburn.
But I will be betting them in other accumulators rather than as a single .
Anyway you might want to consider doing a double on Blackburn and Atletico Madrid for the EL.
If Atleitico are kod then of course Arsenals price falls and they will be favourites.
While if Blackburn dont win then thsts good for you too of course .
Good luck.
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On 20/01/2018 at 2:42 PM, allthethings said:
Notts County have drifted down into the 1.95 range, and it's easy to see why. They're unbeaten at home and face an Exeter side that can't win away lately, which is not the typical League Two story. Anyway, a few things interest me about this match. County are in second, in the automatic promotion spots, and they've strengthened their squad in the transfer window. But they're going to give starts to three new players today, which I have to think is not the best way to integrate your lineup in a way that doesn't put a hitch in the cohesion that got you where you are. Exeter got beaten badly at home by County earlier in the year, and aside from a meltdown a couple years ago involving a sending-off and two goals in injury time, Exeter would've been 2-0 at County in League Two. I'll take a shot at a generous 4.04 for Exeter to break their current funk...with a win and a few other results going their way they could actually leap into the automatic promotion spots themselves.
Great tip .
Also I hadn't realised Notts County had recruited in `January and with them losing again tonight as I write was wondering what's gone wrong .
Now I have a bit of a clue (unless it's just coincidence of course ) .
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On 18/12/2017 at 8:53 AM, thebigp said:
There is some very good advice on this thread but I thought i would add to it as I've been a professional for nearly 2 years and have worked in the industry for 10+ years. However despite being successful I'm leaving the industry and starting in an entirely new career.
First thing I would say is that you simply do not just become a professional. It typically takes years of work, research learning etc to learn how to win and for me this was done whilst working full time. I only went full time when I knew I would earn more from betting than my job. The biggest consideration is then sustainability. Just because you may be able to make a profit now does not you mean you will able to in the future. Markets tend to become more efficient over time, your edge can easily disappear and other people will almost certainly figure out what you have in the future. You will have to be constantly learning and developing new strategies to stay ahead which is very difficult! It's already been mentioned but ultimately you need somewhere where you can win and this means exchanges or Asian bookmakers. Problem here is that many markets (which is the case for me) are much more accurate at betfair and the Asian bookmakers are typically the best at what they do. What makes you think you are better than these guys? My betting partner and I have taken approximately 400k from bookmakers in 2 years. However, bookmakers are becoming better and quicker at closing any potentially profitable accounts. Unless you have unlimited accounts (I would estimate I've used around 100 in this time) winning from European bookmakers is not a sustainable option.
I would also ask why is it you want to become a professional? People think the life of a professional gambler is glamorous but it certainly isn't. For me I've been working a massive number of hours (more than when I worked for someone else). It will typically involve working by yourself in front of a computer at home, which can become very isolating. Pro gamblers live on the edge of society in my opinion and this can be difficult to deal with. Yes there are advantages such as flexibility being your own boss, no tax etc but there are negatives such as no sick pay, no pension, no promotions, no yearly pay rises and also remember what happens if it doesn't work out. You will have a big gap in your CV should you wish to renter the workplace.
Finaly the betting industry is cut throat. Can you deal with this psychologically? If you can't cope with losing you will fail imo. Everyone is out to get you, whether that is bookmakers or other gamblers they all want your money and they don't care how they get it. No one is going to give you a betting system or strategy that makes money. If you want to be profitable you must learn to do it yourself. Sorry if I sound negative about the prospect, it certainly is possible to make it as a professional but it's bloody difficult. If the financial benefits outway the negatives than great but for the vast majority this will not be the case.
Very interesting post .
However I really must pick you up on something you've said that many people also say and is in fact 100 % false.
"No one is going to give you a betting system or strategy that makes money. "
I myself have been giving away what I have no doubt whatsoever is the best way to make money from gambling.
Its not my fault that people ignore everything I say .
Well one member of this forum didn't . He contacted me 5 years ago and has made £60,000 since using that very strategy !
I myself just missed out on a fortune last season when Doncaster lost their last 4 games of the season. Just one win would have done .
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On 23/09/2017 at 9:08 AM, Data said:
Speaking purely on a personal level, psychology/mindset is key.
Learn, if you can, to accept losing in exactly the same way as winning. When I see a punter fist the air after a win, I also see an indiscipline that would not work for me. If you're so elated with a win, then you're likely to be equally downcast with a loss. Such emotional roller-coasters can be the downfall of even the best punter. My personal test with this is if my wife can detect from my mood, actions, temper, if I've had a chunky win today or a heavy loss. She always has to ask. Adrenaline junkie I am not, but emotionally stagnent ... possibly!
Contrary to other views, I don't believe an in-depth knowledge of your sport is necessary either, in fact in my case it can be a hinderence. I have much less of a knowledge of the sport which makes up the major part betting than the average bookies shop regular, but I probably have a better understanding of using and applying statistics.
Crunching the numbers works for me, but gut feeling, based upon my expertise(??) is something to completely ignore. If the calculation says bet, but I feel it looks unlikely, I ignore the stats at my peril, and inevitably to the detriment of my bank.
Also make sure you'll be able to bet what you want, when you want, a simple fact which unfortunately is a facility denied by all too many bookies. I've been primarily a spread bettor for the past 20 years and have found them to be very tolerant of winning accounts (Irish based Sportsspreads excepted).
If you're looking to make 200-300 per month, bear in mind just what that entails. At a 10% margin you'd be staking 2000-3000 per month. Would that be by 20-30 x 100 stakes, or 2-300 x 10 stakes? To make a full-time return those figures get multiplied by 10. After any preparatory work, placing a bet takes time, placing many, many bets without making errors, takes a great deal of time.
Psychology is indeed key in short term markets .
However it's signicantly less of a factor when betting on outright markets . Mainly because if you lose you only lose once or twice a year but for other reasons also .
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On 21/10/2017 at 11:26 PM, Vidich said:
The only way to be a serious / professional player is to use betting exchange services to place your bet.
I have been a professional player for the last few years and I guarantee that the only way to successfully betting is to use betting exchange services, have / possess a good database and have / possess good statistical analysis of data.
There are several other important factors, but they are secondary.
in translation, it means that you have to be ahead of others, using your information you have to create an advantage over other.
The second segment is money management.
From the aspect of betting, especially live betting and betting exchange, money management is specific because good money management can compensate some error of match predictions.
There are four goals which money management must achieve. These four goals are:management
reduce risk of ruin to 0 percent
optimise the risk (Risk-Reward Optimisation)
reduce cost
increase bank / portfolio (also known as bankroll)
If you are interested in details, feel free to ask
Hey,I'm really sorry ,I dont mean to pick on you but with the exception of money management almost everything you've said is wrong.
If you hadn't said you guarantee it's right I'd have let it go.
So specifically, you can make a living without using the exchanges .
You don't need a good database and you don't need good analysis of data.*
In case you dispute this , let me point out thst what you say might be true in many markets but they aren't true in outright markets.
Which is one of several advantages of betting on outright markets.
* If this one seems unlikely I'd add that many outright markets can be traded using at times laughably simple methods .
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On 27/06/2017 at 11:20 PM, Mr Marcus said:
Welcome to the forums, new myself.
Have been gambling for few years, only recently considered it more serious and to make it a personal mission to destroy the bookmakers
I would keep a bank acc seperate for gambling imo, away from your other personal savings and money. This way you can begin to manage bank roll with its wins and losses more easily.
I personally think you have to find your own style and method, if its singles or parlays or dogs whatever works for you imo. But singles are a great way to start.
I would recommend you pick a sport you are comfortable with and know a great deal about its players and rules.
Yes for sure you can start small and build on your success, as your bankroll increases you could in theory increase bet size to win more. This is kinda the method I am doing now, but its not always easy to maintain it requires discipline and patience.
Some people adopt the turtle system, ie if you want to be the hare you won't win the race but the turtle will, patience and timing is a good key.
But others disagree, to each his/her own imo.
I know guys that started with 200, 2-3 years ago and now have 120k+, some guys I know make 2-3k per week some 5K and others 30k per week its possible, but you can expect losses just as much as wins and you may hit roadblocks with bookmakers limits and restrictions.
Its a challenge for sure, I would not give up the day job just yet, more so if you got bills and family!
Hi,
'You seem to know a lot of pro gamblers !
When you say £30,000 is possible ,technically yes it is but you don't know anyone making that amount I take it ? `Even `Patrick Veitch 'only' made £20,000 a week on average.
Whst about the guys who started with £200 and in two years have £120,000 + !
You know more than one person who has done that !?
Whst deport were they betting and why ,if they're so talented and knowledgable did they start with such a low bank !?
Definitely not soccer yes?
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On 07/05/2017 at 12:59 PM, froment said:
If it is not true, then why there are odds at all?!
You just have a look at the league table, the team that has better statistics (whatever you define it is) always wins, and that's it.
Its probably because I've been up all night but I can't get my head round what you're saying. It's the use of the negative that's confusing me even though it shouldn't of course.There are odds because without odds the bookies would lose money .
As far as league tables are concerned yes obviously using ststistics that everyone can see and knows doesn't make a profit.
So I will just repeat, if it's impossible to make a profit from betting from statistics alone ,what's the purpose of using statistics at all ? Why not just use the other factors ?
Im genuinely simply asking what the purpose is of statistics in gambling if they don't make you a profit ?
And what are the other factors ?
These may be thought stupid questions but I'd have thought that any beginner reading this might like to know the answer.
Because after all finding relevant statistics is quite tedious work and some people don't want to do it and do if they perhaps aren't necessary thst would be a big help.
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On 19/08/2015, 13:51:00, Tiger21 said:QuoteRe: The reality of sports betting/trading for a living. BY THE WAY, It seems that some people on here require me to show proof that I have had significant success at betting on football. Yet when Pinkisntwell offered a bet that I or anyone else couldn't make £20,000 in a year I ACCEPTED the bet. What more do you want!?? Its it's not my bloody fault that he then changed the conditions so that effectively not only would I have to make £20,000 profit but I would ALSO have to do it with a bank of just £20,000!!!!!!!!! Thats not my fault!!!!!!!! To make ( a near guaranteed)£20,000 profit doing what I do I would need to place £50,000-£60,000 in bets. JESUS!! No wonder 98% of bettors don't make any profit all! You just couldn't make it up!
Yeah far point Moggis, I think it would be virtually impossible (or you would have to be very lucky) to make £20,000 profit out of just £20,000 invested. Even betting legends like Patrick Veitch only managed about 15% ROI, so to make £20,000 he would typically invest £133,000. The very best tipsters will perhaps make 20-25% ROI, guys like Tom Segal at Pricewise and Hugh Taylor at At the Races. Betting for a living is very tough and I commend anyone who can do it successfully. Not for the feint hearted that;s for sure.
I am passing by after a long hiatus and have only just seen this post. *
Just want to tell people about one of the members of this site. Well he may be an ex member not sure.
His name is Alistair and he pmd me a few years ago -I'm sure admin can check and they can read the pms if they wish.
Anyway,to cut a long story short Alistair has been betting accumulators on long term markets ever since. He and I have swapped up to 1000 emails over the years and we've had our collective ups and downs.
This season Alistair looks like making a £25,000 profit from a bank of just £5000.
Now obviously I'm not claiming that this is in any way normal . Nor am I implying that I will make anything like the % he will make but I am saying that this was the most straightforward season I can remember and it's a great pity that no one -or hardly anyone - listens to the likes of me.
Because most people have just missed out on an opportunity to make £1000s.
* I scrolled up from the bottom so havnt seen any other responses to my post.
If by chance anyone on here still wants to bet me that I can't make £20,000 from betting in a year I'm willing to compromise over the bank and I will attempt it with £30,000 starting at any point in the year as I bet in the summer as well.
edited to add that ,thinking about it,the bet would need to be at least £2000 and probably closer to £5000 since that person will effectively learn how to make £20,000 from sports betting.
A bargain Id say especially if I only make £19,000 and they win £5000!
But my bets would have to remain a secret between myself and the other party though they can of course report the outcome.
Oh yes. Since Alistair will have made his money from ordinary bookmakers let's have no more nonsense about bookies not allowing such bets/stakes/whatever.
Cheers
- LEE-GRAYS and thecurlyone1
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I was just wondering whether the posters who are the most knowledgeable about soccer have ever got together to price up future games,say a week to 10 days ahead by using the wisdom of crowds affect?
That is each of say 20 posters forms their odds and then they are averaged out -perhaps the outliers are discarded -and the result compared with the best prices?
If not why not? Would it be that the very best posters wouldn't want to give away their prices or would it be that noone thinks it could be effective ?
If it's the latter then what does that say if anything about the ease of beating 90 minute markets?
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On 28/05/2015, 13:32:16, froment said:
Re: Lets explain Dixon and Coles I also cannot contribute much, but I'd like to recommend paper "Assessing the number of goals in soccer matches", a Master’s Thesis by Rasmus B. Olesen made at Aalborg University in the Machine Intelligence department; available, for example, here: http://projekter.aau.dk/projekter/files/14466581/AssessingTheNumberOfGoalsInSoccerMatches.pdf He used 4 prediction methods aiming to
Hence, his investigation covers only number of goals, not actual outcome of the match, but it's worth reading anyway; his conclusions: I might be wrong, but, being a long-term fan of systems that rely on statistics, I believe that statistics solely cannot yield profitable results, other factors must be taken into consideration as well.
"Statistics alone cannot yield profitable results....." !!?
Golly. This is a gem of a quote.
If this is true then why bother with statistics at all?
Why not just use the other factors?
What are these other factors?
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Forgot to say that living the life of a millionaire is very overrated.
Most people are never satisfied with however much money they have and always want more.
They compare themselves only to the better off.
And anyway most millionaires lead very ordinary lives.
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Hi,
I have a question. You say you have always been addicted to football,seemingly by way of explanation for why you are now betting on it.
But many millions of people love footballl and hopeless at betting on it.
And in fact I tend to believe that people who love football have a disadvantage when it comes to making money from betting on it.
But that's just a theory,in reality I was wondering if there is a reason that you can specify as to why you think you have the ability to do what very few can other than being addicted to football?
If there isn't one I've learned that it's unlikely that that person truly has an edge or enough of an edge to make much money.
So when you made your profits -I totally believe you did by the way-how did you explain it to yourself?
I mean did you ask yourself something like,
"Wow! Isn't it incredible that making money from betting on football seems so simple and yet hardly anyone can do it?"
If I forced you to put a figure on it,what percentage would you put on the probability that you have thus far just been lucky?
Also, I'm sure you realise that what makes betting on football (90 minute markets) really hard isn't finding value,it's consistently finding value over many years and in many games a year and then coping with the inevitable losing runs that are bound to happen.
Anyway good luck.
(I usually don't read realise sadly as I get criticised a lot and I've had enough unfair criticism for this life so this will probably have to be rhetorical do far as I'm concerned)
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On 11 December 2015 at 22:31:36, MPLouis said:
I have heard that it is hard to average more than 10% long-term. This is backed up by evidence of the systems in Systems & Strategy. Some do amazingly well for a period, and then the performance tails off or worse. If you really are averaging 25% yield long-term, I'm not actually sure why are wasting your time posting on here actually
Although I've quoted a psrticular poster this is a general question (which may be rhetorical as it goes).Indeed it may well be that Loius remark was entirely appropriate for the context in which it was made.It did however remind me of the attitude of not a few gamblers.
With that in mind,
Im a successful bettor and yet lo and behold here I am apparently ' wasting my time' on this forum.
I hope you can imagine my bemusement at coming across comments like this.
And boy oh boy are such comments common on forums.
Well not on all betting forums as it happens. I m sure I can't advertise other forums but I could name a forum where they don't frown on successful bettors contributing.
But let's stick to PL. (The problem with the other forum is that I've read all the threads already and taken onboard anything of any possible use)
Would it be possible for someone to tell me how much money I'm allowed to have made from betting before it would be a waste of my 'valuable' time even bothering to read anything on here let alone posting?
I ask because obviously I had no idea that there was such a limit.
Clearly there is though as I distinctly remember another poster saying something similar in another thread.
He admonished someone for having the temerity to post on this forum when they were claiming to be betting something like £200 per bet or something.
What amount per bet is the limit may I ask?
Im genuinely fascinated to know.Indeed I'd be very grateful if someone could possibly give me yet more advice on how I should live my life since I'm clearly doing it wrong by wasting my time among the hoi polloi.
Let me tell you how I've spent my day so far and perhaps one of you kind sirs could advise me of any areas for improvement .
Thanks in advance;
9.50 am woken up by postman
went back to bed
11.20 am
got up had coffee read Times headlines,did 6 clues of the Easy cryptic crossword before doing the chess problem.
answered emails.
watched end of first episode of edge of darkness which I had purchased the night before and fell asleep watching
spent an hour going through my outstanding long term bets on bet365 with a view to cashing some out
cashed some out
placed some further bets
tried 10 minutes of porn but wasn't really in the mood(made mental note to see doctor )
read about 50 pages in total of 6 different books on varying subjects
more coffee
BORED
decided it might be time to find out whether the undiscovered geniuses on PL are any closer to finally realising that betting singles on soccer is a mugs game and that betting multiples on long term markets is by far the superior method
read a few posts
saw something byMPLoius
found this.
Now later on I plan to watch the second episode of edge of darkness,do some much needed tidying up,read some more of my books and ,if I'm finally in the mood ,visit a 20 year old Asian escort .
See,it seems to little old me that people who win money without having to leave the house tend to have a lot of time on their hands.
Not to mention the fact that often the kind of person who prevails at betting is the kind that,as the expression goes I believe,is 'unlucky in love' and thus lives alone.
But regardless I must say I do find it funny that it's people who apparently havnt won much whose advice is the most preferred on forums such as this?
Hmmmm.
If I don't respond again it may be because I usually only visit once every few months or so .
Honestly you have no idea how many other gambling related sites there are!
Cheers
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This is my all time favourite gambling related thread!
Nice one.
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On 29 February 2016 at 18:54:44, Charity10k said:
You are saying people lose more money on singles because they lack discipline and a proper bankroll management strategy.
Those are two separate issues, both of which need to be mastered to be profitable long term.
If you don't have discipline and proper bankroll management you will lose no matter if you bet singles or accumulators.
What you have described above is basically a textbook compulsive gambler who should seek help from GambleAware.co.uk
I completely disagree.
What I've described is most gamblers.
As I said before betting only on singles is very very tedious.
But that wouldn't matter so much if it were relatively easy to make reasonable profits from betting singles on soccer.
But it isn't.
Dont take my word for that.I have seen mods on this very forum say that it's hard.
Do you think they lack discipline?
Because I didn't get that impression.
I don't like people who bet accumulators being in any way denigrated.
Especially when most singles bettors end up losing more money than the average acca bettor.
Its all very well for people to mention discipline but what exactly do they mean by that?
What they mean by discipline is never ever ever placing any bets that you don't think are value.
BUT what these people just don't get is that even if you do that you will eventually go on a long losing run!!!
And the $64,000 question is what do they do then!?
What good is all the discipline in the world when you've just endured 26 losses out of your last 30 bets?
At what point should you stop betting?
At what point should you realise that you either never had an edge or no longer have an edge?
At what point should you realise that you have no talent?
No amount of discipline will ever help anyone answer those questions.
Yet it's those dilemmas that lead singles bettors to lose money hand over fist.
Acca bettors dont need to know the answers by contrast because they are betting for the sheer entertainment of it.
Which by the way is far and away the best reason to bet!
Cheers
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On 2 February 2016 at 18:20:28, Charity10k said:
For the sake of argument lets agree that any bet that requires more than one thing to occur is an accumulator.
Some bookies offer a bet that requires two things to happen in the one game for you to win but this is a special offer and in effect is a double (accumulator).
I am firmly of the opinion that in the long run you will make more money betting singles versus accumulators but I don't bet enough to have a really statistically relevant sample size (there are very few people who do).
If you were to try to convince someone that they could actually make a profit long term by sports betting and the two most important changes that they would have to make would be to bet singles only and use good bankroll management how would you go about trying to convince them to switch away from their weekly 5 fold accumulator.
Hi,
In fact people who bet singles lose more money than people who bet accumulators.
Betting singles is utterly utterly TEDIOUS. This is especially so when betting tiny amounts of money as most bettors do.
Thus betting singles actually leads people to bet on other non value bets just for interest.
Also,the overwhelming majority of bettors lose whether they bet singles or not.
But crucially when singles bettors go on a long losing run (as they nearly all do eventually)powerful psychological factors come into play which cause many of them to increase their stakes and chase.
This is disastrous enough but yet others actually become addicted.If not to sports betting then to other gambling outlets due to the fact that singles bets aren't enough to satisfy them.
By contrast,the kind of person who sticks a tenner on the 5 or more selections that you denigrate knows that most of the time he will lose.
Thus when he loses he feels no real desire to increase his stake the following week.
Moreover,he gets enough thrill from the anticipation of his bet to satisfy his need to gamble for a whole week much of the time.
Eventually of course most singles bettors get so bored that they start doing doubles then trebles and then full blown accas.
Cheers
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Re: The reality of sports betting/trading for a living. BY THE WAY, It seems that some people on here require me to show proof that I have had significant success at betting on football. Yet when Pinkisntwell offered a bet that I or anyone else couldn't make £20,000 in a year I ACCEPTED the bet. What more do you want!?? Its it's not my bloody fault that he then changed the conditions so that effectively not only would I have to make £20,000 profit but I would ALSO have to do it with a bank of just £20,000!!!!!!!!! Thats not my fault!!!!!!!! To make ( a near guaranteed)£20,000 profit doing what I do I would need to place £50,000-£60,000 in bets. JESUS!! No wonder 98% of bettors don't make any profit all! You just couldn't make it up!
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Re: The reality of sports betting/trading for a living.
Okie dokie. I'm going to reply as fully as possible to this post but I'm going to break up my reply as this is the kind of post that I think deserves a great deal of attention. Edit:I mean HIS post deserves a great deal of attention.Because there FAR TOO MANY PEOPLE LIKE HIM on gambling forums. And so I'm going to begin by doing one simple thing. I am going to offer to pay £400 to the charity of Scottys choice AND his train fare to London AND his expenses for the day if he agrees to meet me ( or to make it easier for him a friend/associate of mine) and he would be shown ALL my bets. And the icing on the cake is that I would leave it completely up to him whether he comes on here and admits he was utterly wrong and apologises. Including the bets that I did as far back as the year 2000 when I used to bet each way in order to take advantage of the place value inherent in antepost markets. Now,having made that offer I'm going to predict that he will not take me up on it. Because I believe that people like him have no interest whatsoever in the TRUTH. They have no interest whatsoever in HELPING people win money from bookies. How do I know what kind of person he is? Because pretty much everything he has stated in his post is DELIBERATELY dishonest or ,at best,deliberately misleading. Let me end this first reply to his post by telling you just one thing. On that other forum he mentions he came on to my thread and told me, "You dont know anything" And my reply was to immediately offer to show him MY OWN personal bets for that season with the bookies. And let's see whether the wonderful members of this forum can work out whether or not he accepted my offer. I couldn't help but notice that he made no mention of THAT in his post.I wonder why.Indeed,I wonder what his true motive is. I will be going through the rest of his post in due course.Guys Moggis is a known gob-****ter. Most people just blank his posts. He used to be on here a while ago, claiming to be a millionaire author and world famous pundit (even appearing in newspapers and magazines). He has never given details of any of his actual bets placed, other than to state after the event has finished that he made a profit on it :wall He has never given any actual proof on here of his bets, instead he just hammers in the same lines "pro better" and "ant-post accumulators". He has proofed bets before, certainly on another betting forum, where all he did was fail miserabley. I can't post links to it (as was in another betting forum), but he was minus a lot of points in just 1 season, and tried to desperately finish in profit by betting on a big multi in the end- and this wasn't an anti-post multi either (needless to say that fell flat on it's face), after that he left the forum :rollin If you search through his posts, maybe from about 2 years ago(?), he was running his mouth on another thread and he got found to be a liar back then, as he fumbled like a retard to defend himself, only to undo lies after lies that he had told previously but had forgotten about, then again he left this forum for about 6 months-a year :rollin I don't post too much nowadays as rather busy, but feel I need to step in, as I remember his name and the crap he spouts. The guy is a bull****ter. Edit: Just realised he has changed his name since his "authoring" days but I will look through GC for it, I'm sure I can find it again. -
Re: The reality of sports betting/trading for a living.
No offence taken mate:D I literally have not the slightest idea what I could possibly gain by impressing a random person on a gambling forum hence I'm not trying to impress anyone. In fact I don't even consider what I do to be in any way impressive. The main reason I am able to make a living from betting on football is because 99.5 % of all soccer bettors concentrate most of their effort on the 90 minute markets. As for posting my bets in advance on here what would be the purpose of that exactly? Are you or anyone else on here seriously suggesting that if I made a profit in just one season by posting bets on here you would actually believe me? I would need to post long- term bets for at least 3 years to get anyone to believe me.But why go to all that trouble when you could just pm me and ask to see proof? But strangely no gambler on any forum ever does that.Hmmmm. And anyway this thread is about the REALITIES of betting and trading for a living. Posting bets on gambling forums is almost as far removed from the realities of betting and trading for a living as it's possible to get I reckon.Moggis, hey, Common Sensei, is that you?! :lol Mate, no offense, but I get the feeling that you have been giving us too much crap talking. I myself, like you, have also won millions of dollars, making bets in retrospective. :lol If you want to impress somebody on this forum, please, post your "pro" bets in advance, not afterwards. -
Re: The reality of sports betting/trading for a living. In the long post I wrote a while ago I pointed out that I don't need much knowledge of football to make money from long-term markets. It occurs to me that perhaps I should give possibly the best example I found this season to show why I don't need much knowledge of football to make money from betting on it,ok? Oh yes and what I particularly like about this example is that I don't need to tell you what I did thus avoiding being accused of aftertiming. Okie dokie. William Hill had a market called 'To Win the Northern Section' ( and of course One 'To Win the Sthn Section) of the Johnstones Paint Trophy. Walsall were due to play at home to the Blades ,one of the two big teams in that section. Walsall were 10-1 to win the section and Blades 7-2. And Walsall were favourites to win the game*. There was to be no replay I should add. Now if profitable football betting is as hard as I keep reading on forums then presumably trying to work out how to proceed in this scenario should also be hard,no? All I can tell you is I knew what to do almost immediately. I will let you look up who actually won this game and indeed the Nthn Section at your leisure.( Though of course that doesn't actually prove anything). *In fact on the morning of the game the Racing Post strongly tipped the Blades to win the game and then they took over slight favouritism as a result.
can we really gain an edge in soccer betting?
in Betting Systems & Strategy
Posted · Edited by moggis
Hi,
First of all I suggest you read the article ,Mugs and Millionaires.
It should confirm that gaining an edge in soccer betting (at least ) really is tough. And one of the reasons it’s tough is because companies like Star Lizard are helping to suck out much of the all important value.
But finding value is only part of the problem. Even if you are one of the few who can find it you still have to deal with the psychology.
Just because most of your selections are value wont prevent you going on a long losing run. And during that run you will begin to doubt thst your selections were in fact value . You will lose confidence . And without confidence that you’re betting value you won’t make much money .
Thus you need a technical edge and a psychological edge. Something very few people will ever have.
Personally I think thst betting on 90 minute soccer msrkets nowadays purely to make money is largely futile .
However most people who bet on soccer aren’t doing it to make money . They’re doing it either because they like betting and they like football and/or because it’s so hard thst to be one of the very few who can do it ,if they ever can,makes them feel good.
Thats the bad news.
The good news is that the answer to your question is YES.
In fact not only can you get an edge in sports betting it’s not at all hard to get an edge.
However you need to only ever bet on long term msrkets.
They are far easier to beat and even better than thst the overwhelming majority of gamblers hardly touch them and never will.