moggis
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Posts posted by moggis
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Re: The reality of sports betting/trading for a living. I have just tried to open an account with Pinnacle and they are one of those bookies that want you to upload your passport photo and debit card photo. 2 problems,I have no idea about how to do that and I haven't even SEEN my debit card for months,lol I know it must be in the house somewhere as no-one has nicked any money from me but finding it could be a problem... Regardless of that(and I realise you may think Im mucking you around-Im not) when I tried to find ante post markets it said Football Futures but when I clicked on it all it had was the Champions League groups. Can someone tell me if Pinnacle allow bets on the winners/promotion from the various leagues? If so,I will make a concerted effort to find my debit card and find someone who knows what I need to do. The thing I just don't get is that I though Pinkisntwell was saying that its almost impossible to be a sports pro gambler PARTLY cos the bookies don't take your bets. Yet Pinnacle say they DO!?
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Re: The reality of sports betting/trading for a living. As for the bet size question...most of my bets are a maximum of £1000 BUT at the end of the season i expect to find myself in a position whereby if a team wins the play-off final i would win a very large amount,whereupon i will bet the rest of my bank on the other team. I aim to convince Pinkisntwell that I have won by skill not luck,otherwise he need not pay up! (I think he WOULD pay up as he will be dying to know how I do what I do!)
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Re: The reality of sports betting/trading for a living. OH,OH.............dammit...I didn't see the bet fair and pinnacle condition!!! HONEST!! Dont understand why only those 2 bookies? In that case I can't do it as only the 4 main bookies take most of my bets....bet365,coral,Ladbrokes and William Hill. I repeat,I do multiples....and I specialise in antepost markets. No way does bet fair have anything like the liquidity I require. I thought Pinnacle only did Asian handicaps? I will check to see but the fact is no pro gambler would ever just bet with those bookies!!!
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Re: Value Hunting Theory Er,ThusPrider,I was bemused to read that if you "could see into the future and knew Chelsea would play badly" v Stoke then the value would obviously be with Stoke..... Er,Ill let you into a big secret,but don't tell anyone. To be honest,I find all this value stuff too much like hartd work. I don't like hard work-never have.Thats why I read forums.Incredibly there are people on them who do all the hard work for you,then give their tips for free!!Wonderful! But,anyway,heres what I do-I don't place bets on Premiership games til the game is in play! Of course I will want to know how its going so I watch Sky Soccer Saturday and listen to radio commentary if available...... It amazes me why everyone doesn't do that.....but hey...
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Re: Grex's OVERS; 204 bets; +13.8% yield Hi,I haven't been able to read this whole thread but I gather that your bets are now exclusively on overs? If so,I wonder if you(or anyone else)can enlighten me on an aspect of this that IO find hard to get my head round? I am pretty sure that most serious gamblers(e.g. Kevin Pullein himself!) believe that its very rare for the overs in any soccer game to EVER be value due to the "fact" that the overwhelming majority of bettors bet on overs!!! Now,it seems to me that it doesn't matter what someones selection criteria are,the prices must be value in order to make a profit year after year. So,are the prices on overs in fact value far more often than experts like Kevin Pullein believe? I must say I find that hard to believe since every gambler I know will almost always bet on overs if they have a bet on this market. Anyway.I hope its ok for me to ask this question?It really does get me scratching my head!
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Re: Grex's OVERS; 204 bets; +13.8% yield Hi,I haven't been able to read this whole thread but I gather that your bets are now exclusively on overs? If so,I wonder if you(or anyone else)can enlighten me on an aspect of this that IO find hard to get my head round? I am pretty sure that most serious gamblers(e.g. Kevin Pullein himself!) believe that its very rare for the overs in any soccer game to EVER be value due to the "fact" that the overwhelming majority of bettors bet on overs!!! Now,it seems to me that it doesn't matter what someones selection criteria are,the prices must be value in order to make a profit year after year. So,are the prices on overs in fact value far more often than experts like Kevin Pullein believe? I must say I find that hard to believe since every gambler I know will almost always bet on overs if they have a bet on this market. Anyway.I hope its ok for me to ask this question?It really does get me scratching my head!
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Re: The reality of sports betting/trading for a living. Pinkisntwell,is your bet still available? If so,then,seeing as I stated on this very thread that I am a pro gambler,I kind of feel that I have to take you up on your bet or else people might think Im a liar. Actually,even though I know for a fact that much of what you say is wrong,I sincerely respect you for putting your money where your mouth is. I had come to believe that gambling forums were full of people who are all talk! Let me point out however that my bets are very unusual. I suspect that you may choke when you read this but,ahem,I specialise in ante post football markets and,um,I specialise in multiples! Now,I know what you are going to say. You are simply not going to take me seriously and you may well point out that if I win it will be luck. Thats something that I think can be worked out. The other thing is this.I really would prefer not to show my bets on a forum that is read by very intelligent people as well as the bookies!! I will be happy however to tell you what my bank is this season and for you to see at the end what my returns were. I can tell you that if I only made 25,000 euros I would consider that to be abject failure! I would be willing to allow you to keep your money if you think I was lucky. Alternatively,I suppose I MAY be willing to post bets on PL.However please note that I would be only attempting to win the bare minimum and I would be doing my best to disguise exactly how I do what I do....even to the point of doing bets I wouldn't normally even consider. Probably,though,I think Id rather keep it between ourselves. btw,one simple thing that many people get wrong is the idea that all successful big gamblers are banned. I am banned from 4 bookies but then many people are banned from 2 or 3 of them-betVic and Sky. Quite frankly,if your bets are accepted by sky bet after 5 years of betting,Id say its time to give up! Anyway,its up to you pinkisntwell... Oh,yeah,one more thing....Im attempting to make a £250,000 profit this season. Don't mean Im gonna get it but,Ill tell you what,I can virtually guarantee that Ill go very,very close(unless death/ill health intervenes)...
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Re: The reality of sports betting/trading for a living.
Hmm,although that does seem logical,the meagre hourly rate does not stop people taking it very,very seriously! I think you gravely underestimate just how much it means to many men to be able to make a profit from betting-especially on football! Why do you think those men who do the sensible thing and simply pay a tipster to do all the hard work are treated with such disdain by most bettors? Its cos to most men making £5 an hour through your own efforts is "better"than making £20 an hour by using a tipster.I've often thought that one of the things that would stop someone taking their betting more seriously is that you don't actually make that much money on most bets! Whether it is finding value (there's a difference between finding value and finding winners or so I am told) or some sort of trading on betting exchanges. During a football match if you can make £20 on Betfair or whatever then great...but that's £20 for about 2 hours work....most peeps probably earn that anyway. -
Re: Experiences with following tipsters? As it happens,a while ago I posted on another thread something along the lines of following the 4 best sports tipters being a good idea and,indeed,the easiest way to find value. I am rather surprised by some of the posts on here about tipping sites. Yes,obviously there would/could come a point where a tipster does so well that you cannot get the price...but I would have thought anyone would know to then search out pastures new. Using tipsters means always being on the lookout for upcoming talent. And,of course,as has been implied,the upcoming talent can sometimes-even often-be found giving it away on forums. HOWEVER,never mind all that....because there are a small group of tipsters you can follow where you can get the price even though they are good and successful!! I refer to those tipsters who concentrate primarily on antepost bets(sports). I know of 2 companies/people who are well known and who make good profits from antepost betting advice year after year. Indeed it is a huge mystery to me why more people dont bet this way! But then people are a huge mystery to me in general. I think what you are doing mate is a very good idea.Just research the tipsters well and bear in mind the fact that bookies will usually hold antepost prices in spite of them being tipped by succesful tipsters.
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Re: The reality of sports betting/trading for a living. I would also suggest watching those soccer games where the outsider is at least 4-1 and where betting in running is available. If after 20 minutes the outsider is doing well(without having scored) bet on them!! This is my favourite way to bet soccer...along with watching sky soccer saturday and betting on the outsider if they are doing well.
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Re: The reality of sports betting/trading for a living. I should point out that your bank would indeed probably need to be 10k+as youd be paying out £1200 for the sports betting advice
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Re: The reality of sports betting/trading for a living. Actually,if you were desperate to be a pro gambler ie your only or main income comes from gambling,and you were a single man who is prepared to remain single,then I guess you could do the following: Bet on correct scores on betfair for minimal stakes-every week there are some clear value opprtunities, Learn to play low stakes sit and goes on the internet.Anyone of average intelligence can make £60 pw part time without any skill. Subscribe to the 4 most successful sports tipping services and bet whatever you can afford while of course taking care not to risk your bank. Avidly read ALL sports betting forums and follow/bet on those posters who are making a profit betting on outsiders. I dont see any reason why a single man shouldnt be able to make £250 a week from all those together BUT he would still have to have a bank of say £5000 minimum...and probably £10,000. Oh yeah,youd obviously need to move to the North....
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Re: The reality of sports betting/trading for a living. Well,actually I spose theres no harm in stating one of the 2 easier ways of staying one step ahead. However I should warn you that its really,really obvious and,therefore disappointing. Its also a suject that is frowned on here. I mention it only because the suject is about being a pro gambler,ok? You know the thing that gets me about threads about being a pro gambler is that they ALL seem to think that the hardest part of being a pro gambler......is finding value. IT AINT!!!! It has never been easier to find value....or,rather,it has never been easier to find people who can find value! The easiest way to be a pro gambler is to research the best tipsters and pay them for their expertise....and then BET in large amounts of cash to make a living wage. Thats the hard part-betting in large amounts. The overwhelming majority of punters will never,ever have the courage to do that. And if you cant do that then having value on your side will never make you a pro. Ok,sorry to be disappointing. The other way is a lot better......
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Re: The reality of sports betting/trading for a living. am not sure. I have an inability to keep quiet when I see something that I know to be wrong. Problem is that anything you say on a forum such as this has to be "proven". And Ive already been in trouble on here. So,when I saw this thread,my post was sort of a compromise.
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Re: When can a system be considered to have "proven" itself ? Hi,I am the person who asked those questions and so thanks for the answers. I am absoluetly fascinated to learn that a mod on here stated the reasons why a particular system would never fail. I assume you must remember the reasons? Any chance of repeating them here-1000 posts is a lot to look through...though I do intend to have a read at some point. Thanks
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Re: The reality of sports betting/trading for a living. Right,I am already on record on this forum for claiming to be a pro gambler. I wont add to that. I would simply like to say this: There are several things on this thread that are wrong,wrong,wrong!! But I want to pick up on an absolute gem of a quote that was right,right,right. To make money from the bookies you need to be "one step ahead of them". There are 3 ways to achieve this. One of them is very,very hard.YET,curiously enough,its the one that 95% of all gamblers attempt!!!No wonder 99% fail! The other 2 ways are significantly easier....
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Re: When to double/treble, staking options Hi,I am not able to answer your specific question but,since you have asked for any feedback,I would like to ask if there is anything about you that you think helps you to succeed at soccer betting? I ask in case you are unaware how hard it is to make 10%profit from soccer betting? To be able to do so after betting for less than 1 year means you are either very talented or perhaps have been given some great stats by,say,a brother or friend or have read a great book or two or something else?
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Re: SAFE MULTIBET system um,I am sorry Maybe isnt entering into debate anymore cos I am most intrigued to know why he doesnt also lay those "dangerous" odds-on shots his system identifies eg Liverpool(v Norwich).Surely they would be better value? Or at least post them. Also,Datapunter,you appear to have answered a question I asked on another thread a few weeks ago re.when exactly a system is said to be "proven". Could you please confirm that its proven after 500 games? Is this something that is generally agreed upon? If so,presumably that means that,at the present rate,we will have to wait til about 2016 to find out if this works before we all lump on!? I spose the bookie offering the best prices on the double that day will get a big surprise:)!! also,in november 2016,what roi will the bets have had to have made before its deemed proven? would 1% be enough or is there a minimum roi required after 500 games? How many people in the history of PL have actually achieved this 500 game proof and do we know what happened afterwards ie did the prices move on the week after the system was proven? If not,then does anyone have an explanation why not? many thanks,and good luck Maybe,see you in 2016(or earlier if you can step up the selections:))
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Re: UNDER 2.5 goals using previous results
Wow,amazing stats jtw,sincerest congrats! Do you have the r.o.i. for the winning seasons? Also,this prompts me to throw out a question that has baffled me since I started reading forums: at what point can a system such as the above be said to be "proven"?Major apologies on a couple of accounts - 1- The above game finished 4-0 and 2- as some of you might have guessed the system is now officially closed fro 2010/11 season. I found in the first couple of seasons running this that the winners started to dry up around the end of March start of April and the results for this season looked to confirm that . To round up i'd like to thank those who encouraged me to re-start this system as , once again, it has proved to be simple and profitable . Since 2006/07 it has shown a profit - 06/07 - +105.96pts 07/08 - +375.18pts 08/09 - +184.41pts 09/10 - 100pts LOSS 10/11 - +115.11pts I will be back next season , but it'll be around the start of October when the leagues have all had a good few games to settle down . I think i'll stick with the doubles ............to start with anyway ;) See you all back here then :ok -
Re: Maximum exposure to loss thanks,I would be very surprised if anyone makes £100,000 a year betting on soccer results/goalines/correct scores. Even making this amount by trading would be difficult.. (Tony Ansell famously made £1,000,000 in 4 years from scottish football BUT he had a lot of contacts and,also the bookies made some rather naive mistakes a few years ago eg not realising that the home advantage was negligible in scottish division 3 games!)
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Re: Maximum exposure to loss
hi,I dont suppose you remember whether,in the same article,it mentioned anything else of interest concerning pro soccer bettors? I ask because Ive always wondered how much money a true pro expects to make from betting on soccer? As far as I know there are actually very,very few people whose main income comes from betting football. I wonder if any PL member would care to say how much they make from the game-perhaps not?Here's what I do. Bet max 5% of my bank on a single bet and where the stake can vary from 1 to 5 depending how confident on a bet I am. Rarely go (5/5) as only death is certain! I've learned the hard way that taking too many bets will not make you great profits so limited myself on max three bets daily, and four bets Sat/Sun (thinking to go with five as the season is getting shape) for a minimum exposure to loss. Daily strike rate cant be worse if I take what I think are the best four bets of ten that I like. Betting 20% of a bank on a bet can make your bank dissapear very quickly and I've somewhere read that pro's are only staking max 2% of their banks which shouldn't be under 30k. Know you've had a nice run the last few days and heres my congrats :clap:clap but don't be fooled with that. Good luck with your betting -
Re: Maximum exposure to loss
If,as you say, you are worried that by some fluke all your bets will lose just do a small acca on that very eventualilty.I use a staking plan so that I never bet any more than 10% of my bank on any one bet, as is commonly done. However, I have recently found that with a lot of football matches being played simultaneously (e.g. in Euro/World Cup qualifiers) there are a number of different bets which I like, and I'm not sure how much of my bank I should be betting at once on a variety of bets. I worry that through some fluke all the bets lose, and a great deal of my bank will be wiped out at once. Obviously, if the games had been on different days I would be using different sized stakes in keeping with the losses already accrued, so the effect would not be nearly as pronounced. So I've been trying to keep it down so that I am not betting more than 20% of my entire bank at once, on any number of bets. On the plus side this limits my exposure, but in practice it has limited the amount I would have won. Does anyone else have this problem and what rules do you use to help you balance out these positives/negatives? 20% is just a figure I made up from nowhere so I would be interested to know what other bettors did. Cheers. -
Re: Is the market always right? Youve hit the nail on the head there! That is,to a large extent,why I much prefer antepost betting. I have made a good living from soccer antepost betting.
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Re: Is the market always right?
Thanks very much,it may be that others have more exciting stories to tell but they probably dont beleive that its easier to make money from financial markets than betfair so your story is of more interest. I suspect that it is simply a case of you having more talent for financial markets than for football. I take it you are aware that football is generally believed to be the hardest sport to profit from?OK,I suppose that suggests the markets are very efficient but I beleive its because many many people just dont have a talent for betting on football or,rather,never realise certain fundamental things about football betting. I hope you will be around in april as I would like to give you a brief test about some of this seasons prices.Of course you dont have to but it would show to me at least the reason why you think betfair is more efficient than financial markets,if you should fail that is! I have already profited from a few prices on betfair that I am sure were too big..Ok, I'll try to answer your questions Moggis and I'll try to make long story short. How long did it take you to learn to make money from financial markets? - 6 months. Did someone teach you or did you read books? -Books. When it comes to betfair,how long did you try to win from betfair before,presumably,giving up? -Almost 2 years already. Splendid start (vocations in Caribean for 2 persons from my winnings) then markets changed and suddenly I've found myself in small red. Then I stopped and started serious backtesting. Tried various strategies but nothing more than 5% RoR (return on risk) long term (5 years). I am still playing around with some strategies "in-play", but need some more time to make any conclusions. How long have you followed football(as opposed to betting on it)? -I've found soccer very difficult (both betting and trading). Finally,do you make any profit at all from soccer betting,from sports betting? -Carribean vacations were from soccer betting. But now I'am mostly on tennis. And it is more like mixed strategy of trading and betting. It shows quite promising results but I need more time for conclusions (backtesting is not an option for this strategy has significant trading in-play element). Hope I've answered your questions. Sorry for so short answers, please do not consider it somehow arogant or anything. I am sure many folks on this forum have much more exciting stories to tell:)
The reality of sports betting/trading for a living.
in Betting Systems & Strategy
Posted
Re: The reality of sports betting/trading for a living. Its one of the several key advantages with betting on ante post markets. Er,I hadn't realised that I had mentioned profits? I must confess however that I too have been very surprised that I am able to do such bets. I was invited by Coral to the Spurs v Young Boys Champs Leg match and at half-time I asked them why they take my bets and was told that they have faith in their odds compilers. I should point out that I believe it could be that the bookies believe,as do most people,that seeing as there is little value in ante post markets,accumulators must be an act of sheer folly. Having said that,I have already been restricted by Coral and William Hill this season although Im hoping it was just because it was a trainee trader/the time of night.