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moggis

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Posts posted by moggis

    How to beat the bookies – a value betting guide (inc. spreadsheet)

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Re: How to beat the bookies – a value betting guide (inc. spreadsheet) thanks for that,I was still on here due to my incredulity at the argument going on on the other thread concerning multiples v singles. I appreciate you wouldnt want to waste your time producing it so instead perhaps I can ask the odd question-as you can imagine,I am very eager to find it. firstly,though,I must say that your overall comments are,strangely enough,most intriguing/pleasing! You actually state that this method "would certainly have a great chance of paying off well for years..." GOSH!!!,compared to most other comments,thats actually just about the most welcome thing I could possibly have expected anyone to write-let alone a mathematician!!!! If I was to write a book,for heavens sake,I rather think that quote would go straight on the cover:D I havent gone over all my posts so can someone tell me that I claimed that this method is invincible!!!?? In 13 years I have lost 4 times(all AGONISINGLY close and still painful)so I am bemused by the invincible quote.* what I have absolutely no doubt about however,is that this is the best way to make money from betting on football. As far as those questions are concerned,I am so surprised that I would like time to think....indeed I may ask them a few months from now. thank you very,very much *in 1 of those years chesterfield,who I had backed from 16s to 1/2 suddenly were found to be being dishonest and were docked 9 points

    How to beat the bookies – a value betting guide (inc. spreadsheet)

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Re: How to beat the bookies – a value betting guide (inc. spreadsheet) I am genuinely sorry to read that ajaxAgain since I would love nothing more than to explain it to you. I am very much hoping for this to be my last post on here for a while. I must say I am very disappointed that the mathematician hasnt contacted me as I am intrigued to see this proof he mentioned.I dont suppose,as a mathematician yourself,you know what he was referring to? I have indicated that if I win a certain amount this season I will be inviting all posters on this thread to a get-together. I would be most intrigued to meet any of you...but, to the best of my ability to estimate,there is a 50/50 chance I will fail to hit my target. Finally,I would encourage anyone to at least dabble in a series of antepost accas between now and may. (If you stick to 4-ways and dont put more than 2% of your bank on any bet til the last 2 or 3 games)you might be surprised at the results.... GOOD LUCK:cheers

    Accumulators superior to singles

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Re: Accumulators superior to singles Shy10ck,good luck with this thread.I think this will be my last post on it and I genuinely want to help.. So,I think it would be a good idea if you were to read the chapter in the book by michael adams from which I quoted. After that,I am 90% sure that it really is all about your personal choice and what you are trying to achieve from gambling. .And your own view of risk... anyway,good luck (I cant help wondering what monkeys nest would make of what I have been doing for the last 13 years!:unsure?)

    Accumulators superior to singles

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Re: Accumulators superior to singles you know I have just had a 15 minute conversation with the most successful gambler I know(apart from tony ansell,who I dont think wouldve appreciated me bothering him),and I am STILL utterly confused. And I think Shy10ck will be as well. One thing that I feel confident to point out though is that if monkeys nest is right......then one of the most successful soccer betting books ever written.....must be seriously flawed!

    Accumulators superior to singles

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Re: Accumulators superior to singles well Shy10ck,I dont think theres much doubt that 90% will answer the second one. but let me give you a quote from a book called "secrets of successful betting",by michael adams, "in effect all multiple betting can be seen as some kind of crazy system ,in which all the most important questions are being determined on a more-or-less random basis. And while this may be an ideal arrangement when the main objectives are entertainment,and the excitement which can be generated by such uncertainty,in any other circumstances such deficiencies are difficult to overlook."

    How to beat the bookies – a value betting guide (inc. spreadsheet)

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Re: How to beat the bookies – a value betting guide (inc. spreadsheet) ok,sorry mod. Barry,what do you mean value is not betting crawley at 5/4-5/4 to do what? also,dont make the mistake of assuming that because spurs won 5-0 this proves the price was value!it doesnt! It is not true to say that I think your bets are lucky.What I think(nay,am 80-90% certain)is that over the last 18 months you have had more than your fair share of luck. Most bets you do are small stakes for big odds and I believe your r.o.i for the last 18 months must be something like 40%?or even more?(and thats not including antepost bets). if so,either a part of that is down to luck OR you are(as I mention to people)one of the best soccer bettors in the country....only time will tell. anyway thanks for the support but I dont think anyone actually thinks we are the same person.Apart from anything else,Id look stupid in a kilt!

    Accumulators superior to singles

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Paul Steele wrote the classic soccer betting book"profitable football betting".......... and he advocates trebles,4-way,5-way and even the occaisional 6-way bet! on the other hand,I have no doubt that one of the most respected betting tipsters,Kevin Pullein,would turn deathly pale if you were to mention doing multiple bets then again his most popular tip is "no bet"-usually after half a page of analysis.. (doubt whether he got much "action" when he was young) especially in antepost markets,but I will say no more about that!

    Accumulators superior to singles

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    looks like this thread has got legs... regardless of the maths,in the end it comes down to personal choice and how much risk you want to take. Plus,theres the excitement factor. Not being funny,but if I was a woman,I wouldnt wanna sleep with a guy who only bets singles....:unsure although,once I had married acca man,I might well encourage him to bet singles only(£5 a time odds on):D

    Accumulators superior to singles

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Re: Accumulators superior to singles yeah,by multiples I mean any bet thats not a single. funnily enough Barry,who posted on the other thread last night got a 9-way acca a couple of weeks ago,and when he told me the market that he had bet on I did a perm of any 3from 5,any 4 from 5 and all 5 the next time it was available...and they all won. I had looked at the stats and in this particular market,over the last 3 years,80%of all games had more than 2.5 goals!! NEXT season I shall be betting 1000s on this market.

    How to beat the bookies – a value betting guide (inc. spreadsheet)

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Re: How to beat the bookies – a value betting guide (inc. spreadsheet) well,westernskies,I think thats a tad unfair since waiting until the end of the season was precisely what I was doing UNTIL a member of this site pmd me. I then read some comments that I had not previously seen-and when one of those is from a mathematician claiming that he has proof that I am wrong,then,heh-yeah-I want to meet them and I am gonna respond. YES,YES,YES you would be foolish to take my word for this....but you miss the point... people are stating that they are CERTAIN I am wrong....but none of them will put their money where their mouth is....

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