moggis
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Posts posted by moggis
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Re: How to beat the bookies – a value betting guide (inc. spreadsheet) i totally,totally get what you are saying and i understand why you believe it to be true... but it isnt true!! i have noticed on this site that geoff harveys book gets very good reviews. on page 30 of his book he states that as a rule he does not bet on any market with more than 4 runners. this is because the overounds (on antepost soccer bets)are 30%+!!!! consequently there is hardly ANY value on antepost bets and any that there is will be meagre....... YET,i tell you that i expect to make 80% profit on turnover this coming season from antepost bets.......
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Re: Strategy that works before i answer your question,i am most intrigued to know how much money you think i am able to bet per year with bookies-bearing in mind that they will of course know that i am able to win off them?
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Re: How to beat the bookies – a value betting guide (inc. spreadsheet) football and county championship cricket mainly
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Re: Has anybody tried this as a strategy? hi,first of all i would advise you to put more weight on anything that other posters say about this since,although i am a pro gambler,i specialise in antepost betting which is much easier to profit from than anything these guys do. i only dabbled with this bet and didnt record anything so my sample size wont be good enough. what i can tell you is that,personally,i would never think of beginning to hedge 0-0s until after ht. i believe that if you ignored the 3 teams least likely to keep clean sheets in the premiership last season(which after 5 games were easy to identify-wolves,bpool and wba-possibly also wigan) and bet 0-0 on every other game,hedging only slightly from the 60th minute onward but more dramatically after 80 mins.,then you would have made about 8% profit. however every season is different.i dont think its ever a bad way to try to make a profit,especially for a newbie. but,as i said,go by what others say on this subject and good luck!
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Re: How to beat the bookies – a value betting guide (inc. spreadsheet) thanks for your reply. before i go to the trouble of answering with an example etc,i should make clear that by long-term i am,in fact referring to antepost betting. does that alter your position at all? there is absolutely no argument from me about value and short-term bets(ie bets on one game/event
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Re: Npower League One > Ante-Post 2011-12 Season could an owls fan please tell me how they are 5.5 with bet365!? who have they bought/after? i find this price to be quite astonishing. thanks
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Re: Npower Championship > Ante-Post 2011-12 Season BOSS 007 re your acca,if you have already placed it then i advise a saver on west ham ,swans,crawley and fleetwood good luck. i think that generally this season will be a good one for those who do antepost accas....however i think it will be wise to hang fire on the championship
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Re: Has anybody tried this as a strategy? yes i have done this and have made a profit. i would have thought that this would be one of the 2 or 3 most obvious ways to try to profit from soccer betting.
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Re: Why Bets Lose... phew,i am glad that noone has replied to my last post. it is wrong of me to say that i believe that a 100£ bet on every outsider would have netted 6%...not to mention stupid:( i should have mentioned that this applies to games from the 25th september(i subscribe to the belief that you shouldnt start to bet til october(approx) and,crucially,if you do not bet on games involving the top or bottom teams!!!! however,even then it may still not be true so please ignore...very sorry. rest of my post stands(for what its worth!:cry
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Re: How to beat the bookies – a value betting guide (inc. spreadsheet) hi all,please allow me to throw a spanner in the works. whilst i totally understand what has been said about value let me tell you that in fact it IS possible to win long-term without betting value!!! this phenomenon occurs on a regular basis in long-term betting and,indeed,is one of the main reasons why it is much easier to make money from long-term bets than from short-term bets ie you do not need to find value.
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Re: Single bet v The Accumalator stick to singles until the time comes that you are able to make a profit...... then start doing doubles and trebles innit
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Re: over 2.5 goals more value on both teams to score? hi,i have only very quickly read your post and this is a very quick response.... why not hedge your overs bet with a saver on 1-1(if indeed it comes up as often as you say? also,you should bear in mind that the criteria you look for for overs bets re.-both teams conceding lots of goals-will almost certainly be taken into account in the prices...so that its unlikely to be a value bet. also,in general,both teams to score markets are poor value imo. good luck
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Re: Serious Sports Betting i hope you wil forgive me for butting in-i will try not to do it again-i just wanted to agree that datapunters advice is sound,no doubt about it. the problem is that imo 95% of people reading it who cannot already make a profit will still be unable to in 2-3 years. antepost bets provide not only the best returns but also the most consistent returns! i doubt very much that if someone knew of a method which provides consistent profits, they would actually divulge that information for free as the liquidity on betfair is not so high that more than say 100 people can be using precisely the same strategy while achieving consistent returns. in long term betting however this is not an issue as the bets are placed with bookies. also,every year things change.it can take until mid november to work out the best strategies for that season..... once again,i hope you will forgive me for butting in...good luck
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Re: What is the best football gambling book youve ever read ? thank you.i very much appreciate facts so please never apologise for providing me with some. actually,i meant that i expect to make 80% profit(eg lay out £100,000 and get back £180,000...and not from reinvesting profits). i repeat,i specialise in antepost accumulators
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Re: Serious Sports Betting hi, if you really are serious in wanting to make money from sports betting then i urge you to trust what i am about to tell you.... making money from sports betting is,generally speaking,ver dificult. i beleive most people who are successful took 5 years or more to learn. however many people lose even after 20 years. the good news is that there is one way of profiting from sports betting that is so superior to all others that it amazes me that it not well known. concentrate ALL your efforts on long-term markets!!!! in 2 years you should be able to profit regularly. let me know if you want more info...i am interested in any poker tips that you may have..even though i beleive i too can make 5k per year good luck
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Re: Strategy that works i know of a football betting "system" which wins 90% of the time,making average profits of 30% approx. and which to a large extent it doesnt matter if it becomes well known because a)most football gamblers simply wouldnt do it b)the bookies would welcome the extra turnover-which would arise from new clients c)many people who try the system would lose NOT because of any inherent flaw in the system...but because of the inherent greed,ego and stupidity of humans. NB please,please do not think i beleive you guys are stupid....that you are on this forum implies otherwise:cheers
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Re: Why Bets Lose... it always bemuses me when someone says that on MANY occaisions a game is decided by refereeing decisions or the rub of the green. IF this is true,then the correct betting stategy is obvious....bet on the outsider every time!!!!!! as a matter of fact,i beleive that if you had bet £100 on the outsider in every premiership and league game last season you would have made a profit of not less than 6%. however i dont know if this is usually the case. BUT,it seems to me that,if in doubt as to where the value is or who is going to win either bet on the outsider or bet on the outsider + 1 goal...
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Re: What is the best football gambling book youve ever read ? hi Stable Master, i was fascinated to read what you said as i expect to make 80%(or more) from betting on football this coming season! what do you think my chances are? (i should point out that i am a pro gambler and i specialise in antepost accas placed throughout the season)
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Re: Last Minute Goal stats. hi Kumquat, very interested in your stats...i know someone who made a lot last season betting on last gasp goals in running and getting 100-1 odds. i was wondering if it would be possible for me to(on occaision) to purchase stats from you seeing as you have gone to a good deal of trouble. i would not be using them to bet as i only do ante-post accumulators. please let me know, thanks
How to beat the bookies – a value betting guide (inc. spreadsheet)
in Betting Systems & Strategy
Posted
Re: How to beat the bookies – a value betting guide (inc. spreadsheet) wow,thats a great question!! much appreciated...let me think about that..... and,btw, i am grateful that you are treating me politely.i realise you must think i am an idiot for saying what i am saying!