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moggis

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Posts posted by moggis

    The reality of sports betting/trading for a living.

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Re: The reality of sports betting/trading for a living. Yes of course that amount is profit is unreal even for almost all pros. Its why I put the word target in caps in one of my posts. It was a TARGET.edited to add that ok I usually expect to hit my targets so I guess it was what I expected in the circumstances preseason. What I certainly did not expect was Crawleys apparent money troubles. And I failed miserably to get it thanks in no small part to Crawley selling both ,BOTH:( strikers in January and Swindons late surge. As for my strategy I bet on accumulators in outright markets while endeavouring to keep back sufficient funds at the end of the season to hedge my positions.

    The reality of sports betting/trading for a living.

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Re: The reality of sports betting/trading for a living.

    Still looking through the older threads, I know his initial nonsence is there somewhere. But have come across some belters on the way. From http://forum.punterslounge.com/threads/109665-Bairn-s-Value-Away-Wins Hmmn, a tad strange from a pro, he must have forgotten he had mentioned this earlier (from http://forum.punterslounge.com/threads/102626-How-to-beat-the-bookies-%96-a-value-betting-guide-%28inc-spreadsheet%29). Infact that whole thread just sums moggis up, as he has literally no idea about the concept of value. Just like he mentions in Bairds thread previously that he had no real knowledge of football. Hmmmn, intriguing.
    Would anyone object if I albeit rather belatedly replied to some of the comments on this thread? I must admit this is the first time I've ever seen some of them.At the time I was dealing with the imminent death of my mother from Alzheimer's and feeling immense guilt for not visiting her enough etc etc and the last thing I needed was to read comments I expected to be criticising me. I realise that it's possible that one or two posters might not see this so I will endeavour to be as fair as possible. Id like to start with Scottys statement that I have literally no idea about the concept of value if that's ok? Ok,here goes.... When betting on 90 minute markets you need to find value. There. Is that good enough? The thing is though is that I only bet on long-term markets.Have done for 15 years now. And apparently ,even though I am possibly the only person on this whole forum who only bets on long term markets, it seems that I HAVE to agree ( by which I mean that otherwise I am ridiculed) with all those people who have NOT spent 15 years betting solely on long-term markets!!! Hmmm. Heh ho.Have it your way. The bets I do on long-term markets are apparently value.No problem. Now at first I wasn't quite sure what point he was making when quoting me concerning the tipster. But I think he might be saying that why would I subscribe to a tipping service especially one apparently giving value tips if I am as I say a pro?And also someone who has said that his bets aren't value? To which my answer is why not? Apart from anything else if I discover a tipster who s any good I can then tell my friends about him. I don't do the bets myself as I have very little interest in betting on short -term markets.However I DO have an interest in pretty much all aspects of soccer betting. As for me saying that I have no real knowledge of football it's a pity I wasn't given the actual quote but anyway this did bring a wry smile to my face. I certainly don't need much knowledge of football to profit from betting on long- term markets. But I have been a football fan since the age of 7 and I'm now well and truly middle-aged so if I said it I was probably comparing myself to the people on here who really really study stats etc etc Okie dokie that will do for my first reply I think.

    Can there really be a system?

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Re: Can there really be a system? If you are new to betting on sport you are in luck! Because I'm going to give you some advice that will be of great help to you. Theres only one problem. Just one teensy weensy problem. And that is that the advice I'm going to give you ,even though it REALLY is great advice,will be ignored by you. Why? Because it contradicts just about everything you will ever read about football betting on the internet. Heh ho.What can you do,eh? Anyway here goes nothing. IGNORE ALL 90 minute markets!!!!!! Instead concentrate ALL your efforts on becoming an expert on how long term sports markets work. Good luck

    Setting basic betting guidelines to improve P/L

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Re: Setting basic betting guidelines to improve P/L I have only ever bet seriously on long- term bets so I m going to reply with that in mind. I only ever do accumulators ( except at the end of the season when I hedge those bets). The most concise way to explain how I make my selections is to point out that I usually simply take advantage of situations that occur week in week out in long term markets safe in the knowledge that almost all ' expert' gamblers are concentrating their efforts elsewhere :) These situations are far easier to spot than value is. Funnily enough I have found that although long term bets are ideal for soccer they are also wonderful for county championship cricket!!!(And can be used for any team sport where there is a league system) I never thought that I could enjoy county championship cricket but it's a great sport to bet on long term.Not the least of which is because you are often happy when it rains! Hope this helps. edited to add that this method of betting requires the least amount of reseach/work.I watch Gillette Soccer Saturday and read the papers but actually it's really not necessary.

    Ante-Post > League One Promotion 2014/15

    in Championship Predictions

    Posted

    Re: Ante-Post > League One Promotion 2014/15 I recommend the following bets: Doncaster 20-1,Peterboro 20-1, Chesterfield 25-1,Barnsley 25-1 for promotion. I would bet a bit more on Donny than Posh and a bit less on the other two. Reasoning.I don't do reasoning. Oh alright then. Whoever gets the 6th playoff spot I'd fancy to be on at least equal terms with Swindon or MK Dons especially Donny or a much recently improved Posh. But apart from that there is a chance ,I rate it as 24%, that Blades will miss out altogether. In which case you will be laughing like an idiot watching You've Been Framed after drinking 4 pints of Stella. You may have noticed that I havnt mentioned the bantams. That's cos I bet the bloody bantams some time ago ( is thst aftertiming!!?? I'm not sure cos I'm explaining why they aren't gonna be top 6 and I find rules so constricting/confusing) and they ******* keep winning bloody Mickey Mouse cup games( tautology or what!?) and thus putting their promotion hopes ( not to mention my hopes of a massive accumulator coming in )up the swannee. *******!!!! Thats why. oh yes edited to add that these bets should also provide you with a lot of interest and entertainment ( from Gillette Soccer Saturday ) to boot. I think that bets that provide a lot of entertainment are intrinsically good bets. After all what are you hoping to spend gambling winnings on if not entertainment?Bills? Charity? Your pension fund? Ha (edited again to apologise for all the swearing.I havnt edited them cos I m not sure if the use of * to swear is against the rules.I imagine it is.Either that or you are all incredibly mellow people on here)

    Singles Or Multiples That Is The Question

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Re: Singles Or Multiples That Is The Question

    Definitely better to do singles by a large margin. There is a reason in some places around the world bookies will only accept multiples.
    How then would you explain why one of the larger bookies ( ie not a Mickey Mouse outfit such as skybet or betvic etc) has effectivly banned me from betting in multiples but not in singles? ( Of course I appreciate that you'd have to take my word for that)

    Singles Or Multiples That Is The Question

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Re: Singles Or Multiples That Is The Question

    i agree with the singles being the better bet' date='but also think there is potential for e/w doubles combined with win singles placed at the right prices along with the right amount of horses per race(8) and a decent stakeing plan...just my thoughts..:unsure[/quote'] Without question that's correct but it's also very well known and I'd be surprised if anyone doing this and winning on a regular basis were not banned or severely limited very quickly

    Singles Or Multiples That Is The Question

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Re: Singles Or Multiples That Is The Question For the overwhelming majority of bettors it really doesn't make much difference when betting on soccer since the overwhelming majority will never make a profit and will bet lower amounts when betting on multiples while usually getting more pleasure/ entertainment overall. Betting singles is really for serious profitable gamblers. If you are a serious profitable gambler you probably wouldn't even bother reading threads like this as you know the answer to the question already. Yes there have been exceptions in the past which you can read about in gambling books.I refer to situations where someone has spotted great value on a regular basis and has tried to make as much as possible by betting in doubles and even trebles but certainly no more.But such situations are almost certainly never going to appear again thanks to so many people competing to find value in the internet age. NOW,having said all that there IS a soccer market where multiples are superior to singles. Ive already pointed out on this site what that market is and won't be repeating myself on this thread.

    The reality of sports betting/trading for a living.

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Re: The reality of sports betting/trading for a living. Well,I have indeed been staying "low and quiet" apart from the occasion when I turn up on this forum and find that someone is willing to give me 500 euros for doing something I expect to do. I will certainly not be bragging if I take Pinkisntwells money. What would I have to brag about.This is my job.Its overrated if you want to know the truth. Do you think women are impressed when I tell them what I do?They aren't!Not at all. Anyway the acca was Bpool prom 9-2 Sheff weds Evns Shrews 5/6 Fleetwood win 4/7 Cowdenbeath scot D2 4/6 Alloa 2/5 Real Madrid 2/7 stake £1000....hopefully that comes to 96k!? placed 11th Feb 2012

    The reality of sports betting/trading for a living.

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Re: The reality of sports betting/trading for a living. Well,firstly DONT give me respect.Im not here for respect. I don't care about such things. Somebody stated a bet and thats what Im interested in. The odds on Blackpool were in the region of 4-1 when I bet on them......but the stake was £1000 approx(I can go into my Coral account later and check).... BUT it was a 6-way accumulator!!!

    The reality of sports betting/trading for a living.

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Re: The reality of sports betting/trading for a living. Well,Pinkisntwell,I guess the question is,will you still doubt me in May if we can agree terms. I have never knowingly lied on here. There was just ONE bookie who has ever asked me for these details.(I mean photocopies) Cant remember which,possibly Bluesquare.Thus I never bet with them for a long time. If you have any further doubts Pinkisntwell allow me to point out that I only came onto this forum in the first place cos I googled myself and found out that someone on here was enquiring about the book I was writing having seen an article about me in the papers. Then one day I was allowed to open an account without this palaver. I will consider the implications of your conditions....

    The reality of sports betting/trading for a living.

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Re: The reality of sports betting/trading for a living. Last season I stood to win £96,000 from Coral if Blackpool won the play-off final. Thus I bet over £40,000 on west Ham. I reckon I could have got as much as £50,000 or even more on BUT,heres the point.... in my opinion West Hams price was poor value and I have no doubt that the bookies agreed.....so theres no problem betting large amounts if the bookies believe the bet isn't value.

    The reality of sports betting/trading for a living.

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    Re: The reality of sports betting/trading for a living. Funnily enough one of the main reasons that I have never started a tipping service using such bets is BECAUSE the bookies take my bets! Im very grateful to them as these bets really are my only income! So,it seems to me that possibly,either they know how I do it-in which case they don't want to force me to tell loads of others so they allow me a certain amount of profit.... or,as I say,they just think Im lucky.... Lets put it this way,if I get my target this season,I will be intrigued to see what happens next season. However,in most seasons I only make a really big profit from 1 bookie(which also helps foster the "luck" image. If the bookies could see ALL my bets,I think they may re-evaluate.......hmmm)

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