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About rodolfotg

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    Newbie Punter
  • Birthday 12/21/1985

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  1. In retrospect, you are right.... you can spend a lot of time trying to beat football betting, 90 minutes, half times, trading, whatever. You could spend that time learning something else. I think there is a sense of hope, that you will make it soon that keeps you trying to beat this game, then time passess and somewhere along the way you notice that you could have done something else. Personality is a big factor. I know you advocate outright markets in multiples, but not everyone is suited to place those bets. You have two choices, find your own way that fits your personality or try to copy somebody elses way and suit your behaviour to what is required. By the way, I always enjoy your insights. I hope I can learn more from them.
  2. look for Paulo Rebelo, Psychoff.... on football trading resources, I bought some just to get a look into what they supposedly do, Total football trading I think and a service called goalprofits... About GP, they use stats, dont watch games, maybe you will like it, its all about your trading psychology/profile. I think there are so many ways to make money inplay, lately I have been looking into the Asian Handicaps, asking for prices at betfair that I think have a lot of value. You can base this assumptions on stats or just by looking into a game, with time and some record keeping you will find patterns worth investigating. I think that you have to look into something that not only gives you money, but that you enjoy. For instance, if you look into La Liga (spain) stats for this season, you will find some odd things happening. Teams with possession are losing. Few goals. Two years ago I made money mostly in the first half of the game, with big possession teams pressing, because I liked to play like this. I avoided second halfs. I calculated my edge and it was not something spectacular, my discpline started to diminish and some losing runs made me change my strategy into something more attractive. I used no prematch stats. If I sticked into this games without looking into other things, I would be suffering right now, since I also used a very aggressive stake % of my bank. After a year of getting good results with first half, big possession teams, I started making money in the second half. I started to look into some prematch data and tried to make a system, something so easy any one could do it. I think anyone that follows those instructions will make a decent return but then again, I wanted to be better so I started to look into other stages of the game and new markets. I used to be very very bad at over/under markets, I took a dive into all the games I traded and found patterns that are very promising into the late stages of the game. Now I profile matches using basic stats prematch, I combine this data with the current inplay situation and start trading what I see. You can paper trade, but I dont like this, because theres no point into finding value at odds like 10, 15, 30 if you cant stand a losing run of 15 games, even if you come out on top after a hundred bets, so I bet to know how much of a beating I can take. After a few games, 20, 30 maybe, you will find promising things, continue and you will get something. Then, its all about discipline and finding other angles. What I am trying to tell you is that you have to continue working on different angles, trying to get a very big edge, I am talking about winning 30% on odds of 5, which is about a 50% edge on your stake. I dont think I can get those on a prematch bet. Take a look into any Big Team game, you will see their odds fluctuating depending on how they are playing and how much time they have left, I can assure you that a team like PSG can win games from a goal behind in 10 minutes, you just need to look into when they want to do it and if the odds are good enough for you. Thats it. Look for "sure things" in the mind of your average bettor, almost all the time they will suffer their bet, it does not matter if the odds were 1.3 or 1.7..... Just take a look into how some big teams do not even try in the first half, or some mediocre teams get so motivated into the first half they come out attacking and making the goal. Just think, explore different ideas and you will get something interesting. Read the market wizards books.... you will see that you can make money with or without stats, just look for something that suits your personality.
  3. You have to consider when those shots were made. What if at the 60th minute, you have 5 shots on target for the home team, but 4 of them where at the 20th-35th minutes. IF the odds are valuable, you should bet at the stage when your team is really dominating and getting out when they dont.
  4. I think every bettor has. I sepent almost 7 years trying to make a PreMatch system, I built databases and used inflection points. I think I was not wrong, but I did not have the results I wanted. I changed my style into trading live, just watching matches. I have made money, a lot with so little, lost a big chunk and do it again. Been on this cycle and I have discovered there are so many ways to win inplay. I wanted to devise a system for this as well based on my results, I have some tips for you: - Every round, look into the TOP 30% of the league you will focus. I say 30% because you have 20 teams on one league or 16 on another. Its not an exact science, but you get the idea. - When they play home and are heavily favored, 1.50 or less, dont bother. Ignore them. When they play away, be ready, you will have more chances to make valuable bets in the second half depending on the situation. If they are drawing or losing, look into the way the have played for the last 10 minutes, you may see the intention to score a goal, a real definitive intention to do this with odds above 2.50, sometimes above 3.50. I would only study them at home when they have odds above 2.30 at Half Time. - I had entry and exit points, trading on exchanges. I could risk a 10% on a team, sell it on a loss at 30%. Most of the time I wont get a goal against, sometimes I would score and exit, I avergaed a 40% risk on a 100% payout based on my stake. If my strike rate was better than 35%, I made money. You need to understand very well your risk/reward profile and how much you can expect. - I just gave you an example, my psychology could handle those risks and match profiles, not everyone does. Look for something inplay, using a few stats, that you can bet on without difficulty. You can trade or let your bet ride into full time, just focus on something until you can understand how teams react and play into those stages. -Do not use dobules, trebles nor any form of accumulator. Keep it simple, low risk high reward singles. Be patient, you need a lot of experience to get profitable with live betting, start working it out. PreMatch I think its a lot more efficient, therefore a lot more difficult to win money at. Ideas you can focus on: Very Late goals, 80min + Away teams Last 10 minutes of the first half Everyone gets lost from time to time. Take a look intro trading books, psychology and basic math. Give yourself time to understand something you like, if you do not like it, do something else.