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gbettle

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Posts posted by gbettle

    £20 Daily Challenge - All Welcome

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    9 hours ago, gbettle said:

    Good luck all.

     

    event_date time course selection betfair position
    2022-02-01 14:30 Newcastle Dedanser 1.99  
    2022-02-01 14:40 Limerick La Prima Donna 1.58  
    2022-02-01 19:50 Wolverhampton Golden Sands 1.23  
               
               
    Bet Total Outlay Total Return Total Profit    
    Trixie 20.00 (4 bets of 5.00) 57.01 37.01    

    Yawn ...

    event_date time course selection betfair position
    2022-02-01 14:30 Newcastle Dedanser 1.99 4
    2022-02-01 14:40 Limerick La Prima Donna 1.58 F
    2022-02-01 19:50 Wolverhampton Golden Sands 1.23 1
               
               
    Bet Total Outlay Total Return Total Profit    
    Trixie 20.00 (4 bets of 5.00) 0.00 -20.00    
               
    Month bets outlay return profit  
    2 1 20 0 -20.00  

    £20 Daily Challenge - All Welcome

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Good luck all.

    event_date time course selection betfair position
    2022-02-01 14:30 Newcastle Dedanser 1.99  
    2022-02-01 14:40 Limerick La Prima Donna 1.58  
    2022-02-01 19:50 Wolverhampton Golden Sands 1.23  
               
               
    Bet Total Outlay Total Return Total Profit    
    Trixie 20.00 (4 bets of 5.00) 57.01 37.01    

    £20 Daily Challenge - All Welcome

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    8 hours ago, gbettle said:

    Good luck all.

     

    event_date time course selection betfair position
    2022-01-31 13:20 Punchestown Kilcruit 1.37  
    2022-01-31 14:40 Plumpton Hecouldbetheone 1.34  
    2022-01-31 17:30 Wolverhampton Umm Hurair 1.64  
               
               
    Bet Total Outlay Total Return Total Profit    
    Trixie 20.00 (4 bets of 5.00) 46.45 26.45    

    Nice, time for a wee dance :nana

    event_date time course selection betfair position
    2022-01-31 13:20 Punchestown Kilcruit 1.37 1
    2022-01-31 14:40 Plumpton Hecouldbetheone 1.34 1
    2022-01-31 17:30 Wolverhampton Umm Hurair 1.64 1
               
               
    Bet Total Outlay Total Return Total Profit    
    Trixie 20.00 (4 bets of 5.00) 46.45 26.45    
               
    Month bets outlay return profit  
    1 31 620 723.74 103.74  

     

     

    2022-01 pl20.jpg

    Staking to win

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    1 minute ago, MCLARKE said:

    Isn't this quite risky. Also, don't you have to be confident what your edge is ?

    Yup; "It is valid when the expected returns are known." so buyer beware. I always use a modified Kelly staking plan - it's just too greedy otherwise.

    Peter Marko, in Feb 2005 has a very good definition:

    "7. Suggested stake

    Suggested stake ('SugStk') = IF(MinPOT<0,"",MIN(MaxStk,MinPOT/AvOdds))

    This is calculating the Kelly criterion using the minimum figures and capping at the maximum stake (for which I typically use 5%). At this point it is quite safe to use the full Kelly limit. Naturally, if minimum profitability is negative, we cannot make any bets."

    http://www.punterprofits.com/horse-racing/sensible_betting_staking.php

    Staking to win

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    It's been long established - 1956 - that the Kelly criteria, when used to maximize long term growth of capital, is optimal. Warren Buffet and Bill Gross used Kelly methods. And in the realm of horse racing, I think Bill Benter used a modified Kelly staking to make his $1 billion in Hong Kong.

    Racing Chat - Sunday 30th January

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    4 minutes ago, MCLARKE said:

    Fascinating stuff, are we going to take the plunge on Thursday or is the cat out of the bag ?

    Indeed, I will have a go.

    I've had a go at the placepot since reading about Southwell surface change to Tapeta. But Thursday's card is a mid-day meeting so the prize fund and dividend will be smaller.

    Might just lay stalls 1-5 in any race when 6f+ and 10+ runners.

    Racing Chat - Sunday 30th January

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    3 minutes ago, Zilzalian said:

    I remember many years ago when there were only 3 aw tracks that harrowing of the surface even over a relatively short time pushes material to the outsides making it deeper, i cant quite remember what difference this made but i do know it was quite significant on the inside rail (i think stall one at Lingfield was a nightmare whereas stall 2 wasn't), you would think that would apply to the outside rail also but the simple explanation is/was that the horses don't race that far out.

    I knew zilch about the 80yrd rule until now:

    "So why don't jockeys just manouvere away from the edges? Because of the rule that they have to keep straight for the first 80 yards! Jockeys have to stay in lane until they pass the orange marker. Then they can maneuver left or right but by now the damage has been done. They have run in the fluffy dunes, whilst those drawn 5-9 have run on the harder sand. "

     

    Racing Chat - Sunday 30th January

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Did someone mention Southwell changing surface?

    Check out this fascinating thread on FlatStats about the change to Tapeta - the machines that work the track are too small and have to work the track twice which makes the mid-stalls surface harder than low or high stalls ?

    TL;DR:

    "Why is There a Bias?

    Possibly because of double compaction. The width of the machines that work the track are not sufficient to do a single pass so the track has to be worked twice - on the left and on the right. This means the middle gets worked twice and at that area the surface is much faster than at low or high.

    So why don't jockeys just manouvere away from the edges? Because of the rule that they have to keep straight for the first 80 yards! Jockeys have to stay in lane until they pass the orange marker. Then they can maneuver left or right but by now the damage has been done. They have run in the fluffy dunes, whilst those drawn 5-9 have run on the harder sand. "

    £20 Daily Challenge - All Welcome

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    6 hours ago, gbettle said:

     

    event_date time course selection betfair position
    2022-01-30 13:20 Fontwell American Gerry 2.12  
    2022-01-30 13:40 Naas Saint Felicien 1.98  
    2022-01-30 14:10 Naas Champion Green 1.82  
               
               
    Bet Total Outlay Total Return Total Profit    
    Trixie 20.00 (4 bets of 5.00) 96.50 76.50    

     

    event_date time course selection betfair position
    2022-01-30 13:20 Fontwell American Gerry 2.12 2
    2022-01-30 13:40 Naas Saint Felicien 1.98 2
    2022-01-30 14:10 Naas Champion Green 1.82 1
               
               
    Bet Total Outlay Total Return Total Profit    
    Trixie 20.00 (4 bets of 5.00) 0.00 -20.00    
               
    Month bets outlay return profit  
    1 30 600 677.29 77.29  

     

    £20 Daily Challenge - All Welcome

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    8 hours ago, gbettle said:

     

    event_date time course selection betfair position
    2022-01-29 13:27 Lingfield Far Away Thoughts 1.5  
    2022-01-29 14:15 Fairyhouse Ha Dor 1.37  
    2022-01-29 15:05 Cheltenham Champ 1.57  
               
               
    Bet Total Outlay Total Return Total Profit    
    Trixie 20.00 (4 bets of 5.00) 48.94 28.94    

     

    event_date time course selection betfair position
    2022-01-29 13:27 Lingfield Far Away Thoughts 1.5 2
    2022-01-29 14:15 Fairyhouse Ha Dor 1.37 1
    2022-01-29 15:05 Cheltenham Champ 1.57 2
               
               
    Bet Total Outlay Total Return Total Profit    
    Trixie 20.00 (4 bets of 5.00) 0.00 -20.00    
               
    Month bets outlay return profit  
    1 29 580 677.29 97.29  

    £20 Daily Challenge - All Welcome

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    13 hours ago, gbettle said:

    Good luck all.

    event_date time course selection betfair position
    2022-01-28 12:25 Huntingdon Captain Broomfield 1.98  
    2022-01-28 14:35 Huntingdon Vienna Court 1.83  
    2022-01-28 16:20 Lingfield Addingham 1.43  
               
               
    Bet Total Outlay Total Return Total Profit    
    Trixie 20.00 (4 bets of 5.00) 71.27 51.27    

     

    event_date time course selection betfair position
    2022-01-28 12:25 Huntingdon Captain Broomfield 1.98 6
    2022-01-28 14:35 Huntingdon Vienna Court 1.83 2
    2022-01-28 16:20 Lingfield Addingham 1.43 2
               
               
    Bet Total Outlay Total Return Total Profit    
    Trixie 20.00 (4 bets of 5.00) 0.00 -20.00    
               
    Month bets outlay return profit  
    1 28 560 677.29 117.29  

     

    Why the sad face? LOL

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