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Posts posted by gbettle
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8 minutes ago, Valiant Thor said:
From 20yrs data
There were 573 runners started Fav or JT Fav of those 306 won @ an ave winning odds of 2.06
This gives a return of 629.50 @ book sp with a profit of 56.50 ( 9.8%) if backed @ 1pt blindly.
The IV shows favs in these races @ this time of year are 2.7 times more likely to win than average (IV of 1.00)
**For the pedants out there who think the total sr should equal 100% its due to jt favs , 2nd favs etc **ATB
VTBrilliant analysis @Valiant Thor
Many thanks!
One question; does this exclude Novice races? -
15:05 Clonmel No. 14 Beechmount Maisie @ 4.75 WIN Paddypower\Betfair
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2 races today:
date time course_name race_title 2022-02-17 1455 Sandown Park Castel Royal Artillery Gold Cup (Chase For Military Amateur Jockeys) (3) 2022-02-17 1615 Clonmel Monksgrange Beginners Chase
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On 2/15/2022 at 11:49 AM, gbettle said:
One race today:
date time course_name race_title 2022-02-15 1630 Lingfield Park At The Races App Market Movers Open Hunters' Chase (6)
1st, No. 3 Dolphin Square BSP 1.97 :
"Tracked leaders, made challenge after 7th, led after 2 out (usual 3 out), ridden and went clear before last, comfortably (op 8/11 tchd Evens)" -
event_date time course selection betfair position 2022-02-17 13:20 Clonmel Hors Piste 1.8 2022-02-17 13:27 Fontwell Barony Legends 1.77 2022-02-17 18:30 Chelmsford City Highfield Princess 1.5 Bet Total Outlay Total Return Total Profit Trixie 20.00 (4 bets of 5.00) 66.60 46.60 -
9 hours ago, gbettle said:
event_date time course selection betfair position 2022-02-16 13:55 Hereford Godrevy Point 1.31 2022-02-16 19:00 Kempton Della Mare 1.9 2022-02-16 19:30 Kempton May Sonic 1.89 Bet Total Outlay Total Return Total Profit Trixie 20.00 (4 bets of 5.00) 66.30 46.30 event_date time course selection betfair position 2022-02-16 13:55 Hereford Godrevy Point 1.31 1 2022-02-16 19:00 Kempton Della Mare 1.9 3 2022-02-16 19:30 Kempton May Sonic 1.89 3 Bet Total Outlay Total Return Total Profit Trixie 20.00 (4 bets of 5.00) 0.00 -20.00 Month bets outlay return profit 2 16 320 194.75 -125.25 -
15:50 Wetherby No. 1 Beat Box @ 6.4 WIN Paddypower\Betfair
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event_date time course selection betfair position 2022-02-16 13:55 Hereford Godrevy Point 1.31 2022-02-16 19:00 Kempton Della Mare 1.9 2022-02-16 19:30 Kempton May Sonic 1.89 Bet Total Outlay Total Return Total Profit Trixie 20.00 (4 bets of 5.00) 66.30 46.30 -
23 hours ago, gbettle said:
event_date time course selection betfair position 2022-02-15 13:35 Lingfield Cousu Main 1.82 2022-02-15 16:30 Lingfield Dolphin Square 1.99 2022-02-15 19:15 Newcastle Pepper Streak 1.8 Bet Total Outlay Total Return Total Profit Trixie 20.00 (4 bets of 5.00) 85.00 65.00 Cousu Main lost a shoe ... we've all been there LOL
event_date time course selection betfair position 2022-02-15 13:35 Lingfield Cousu Main 1.82 PU 2022-02-15 16:30 Lingfield Dolphin Square 1.99 1 2022-02-15 19:15 Newcastle Pepper Streak 1.8 1 Bet Total Outlay Total Return Total Profit Trixie 20.00 (4 bets of 5.00) 17.91 -2.09 Month bets outlay return profit 2 15 300 194.75 -105.25 -
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13:20 Ayr No. 2 Atlantic Dancer @ 6.6 WIN Paddypower\Betfair
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event_date time course selection betfair position 2022-02-15 13:35 Lingfield Cousu Main 1.82 2022-02-15 16:30 Lingfield Dolphin Square 1.99 2022-02-15 19:15 Newcastle Pepper Streak 1.8 Bet Total Outlay Total Return Total Profit Trixie 20.00 (4 bets of 5.00) 85.00 65.00 -
9 hours ago, gbettle said:
event_date time course selection betfair position 2022-02-14 13:45 Plumpton Mark of Gold 1.28 2022-02-14 14:05 Catterick Miss Fairfax 1.75 2022-02-14 18:30 Wolverhampton Nate The Great 1.96 Bet Total Outlay Total Return Total Profit Trixie 20.00 (4 bets of 5.00) 62.85 42.85 Month bets outlay return profit 2 13 260 165.64 -94.36 event_date time course selection betfair position 2022-02-14 13:45 Plumpton Mark of Gold 1.28 1 2022-02-14 14:05 Catterick Miss Fairfax 1.75 1 2022-02-14 18:30 Wolverhampton Nate The Great 1.96 3 Bet Total Outlay Total Return Total Profit Trixie 20.00 (4 bets of 5.00) 11.20 -8.80 Month bets outlay return profit 2 14 280 176.84 -103.16 -
17:00 Wolverhampton No. 1 Rockett Man @ 4.5 WIN Paddypower\Betfair
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event_date time course selection betfair position 2022-02-14 13:45 Plumpton Mark of Gold 1.28 2022-02-14 14:05 Catterick Miss Fairfax 1.75 2022-02-14 18:30 Wolverhampton Nate The Great 1.96 Bet Total Outlay Total Return Total Profit Trixie 20.00 (4 bets of 5.00) 62.85 42.85 Month bets outlay return profit 2 13 260 165.64 -94.36 -
9 hours ago, gbettle said:
Good luck all
event_date time course selection betfair position 2022-02-13 14:10 Punchestown Ciel De Neige 2.44 2022-02-13 14:30 Exeter Triple Trade 1.73 2022-02-13 16:40 Punchestown Jamess Gate 1.82 Bet Total Outlay Total Return Total Profit Trixie 20.00 (4 bets of 5.00) 97.47 77.47 event_date time course selection betfair position 2022-02-13 14:10 Punchestown Ciel De Neige 2.44 1 2022-02-13 14:30 Exeter Triple Trade 1.73 3 2022-02-13 16:40 Punchestown Jamess Gate 1.82 1 Bet Total Outlay Total Return Total Profit Trixie 20.00 (4 bets of 5.00) 22.20 2.20 Month bets outlay return profit 2 13 260 165.64 -94.36 -
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6 hours ago, gbettle said:
Date Leg Time Num Selections Stall Runners Length 13/02/2022 1 13:50 5,12,3 Gustav Graves,Jazz Legend,Mayelf 5,6,8 11 6f 13/02/2022 2 14:20 5,1 Another Bertie,Arkid 4,9 8 5f 13/02/2022 3 14:50 1,4 Night Narcissus,Airshow 5,7 9 5f 13/02/2022 4 15:20 3 Chase The Dollar 6 7 1m6f 13/02/2022 5 15:50 7,2 Tanglewood Tales,Star Dreamer 6,7 11 1m4f 13/02/2022 6 16:20 2 Ayr Harbour 6 7 1m
24-line place pot
Out in the 1st leg LOL
Southwell Tote Placepot Prize Fund: £82,355
Dividend of £72.60 to a £1 stake:
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Date Leg Time Num Selections Stall Runners Length 13/02/2022 1 13:50 5,12,3 Gustav Graves,Jazz Legend,Mayelf 5,6,8 11 6f 13/02/2022 2 14:20 5,1 Another Bertie,Arkid 4,9 8 5f 13/02/2022 3 14:50 1,4 Night Narcissus,Airshow 5,7 9 5f 13/02/2022 4 15:20 3 Chase The Dollar 6 7 1m6f 13/02/2022 5 15:50 7,2 Tanglewood Tales,Star Dreamer 6,7 11 1m4f 13/02/2022 6 16:20 2 Ayr Harbour 6 7 1m
24-line place pot
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16:10 Punchestown No. 14 Petrol Head @ 5.8 WIN Paddypower\Betfair
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Good luck all
event_date time course selection betfair position 2022-02-13 14:10 Punchestown Ciel De Neige 2.44 2022-02-13 14:30 Exeter Triple Trade 1.73 2022-02-13 16:40 Punchestown Jamess Gate 1.82 Bet Total Outlay Total Return Total Profit Trixie 20.00 (4 bets of 5.00) 97.47 77.47 -
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11 hours ago, gbettle said:
Giddy up Trixie
event_date time course selection betfair position 2022-02-12 16:00 Naas Elimay 1.19 2022-02-12 16:30 Naas Billaway 1.4 2022-02-12 16:37 Lingfield Notre Belle Bete 1.11 Bet Total Outlay Total Return Total Profit Trixie 20.00 (4 bets of 5.00) 31.95 11.95 So, a profit is a profit LOL
event_date time course selection betfair position 2022-02-12 16:00 Naas Elimay 1.19 1 2022-02-12 16:30 Naas Billaway 1.4 1 2022-02-12 16:37 Lingfield Notre Belle Bete 1.11 1 Bet Total Outlay Total Return Total Profit Trixie 20.00 (4 bets of 5.00) 31.95 11.95 Month bets outlay return profit 2 12 240 143.44 -96.56
Underbet Non-Hcap Cheltenham Chase favourites - February 2022
in At The Races - Racing Forum
Posted
Wow, many thanks @Valiant Thor I do love a good data analysis ?
The last 2 tables have headers with DEC instead of FEB. That's a typo \ miss-print I hope.
Cheers,
G.