[Underbet Non-Hcap Cheltenham Chase favourites - February 2022]

1 hour ago, Valiant Thor said:

I have gone through the data again due to some errors while trying to loop through the data 
Cleaned the data so theres no corrupt cells  so should be ok now

As you can see below the front 3 in the market most have above average IV's , but due to overbetting ,WOTC & WOM the market isnt far from spot on give or take a few % either way

FEB without Novice Chases Ave odds 2.16
Returned 938.36
P/L -29.64

FEB All Non Hcp Chases Ave odds 2.10
Returned 1540.07
P/L -38.93

Mine are to book sp so maybe backing @ BF sp some slight improvement

Taking  years you put up  2012 - 2021 I get.....

FEB All Non Hcp Chases Ave odds 2.10
Returned 713.63
P/L 28.63
10yr return = 4%
Ex longest losing run 12

FEB without Novice Chases Ave odds 2.12
Returned 426.35
P/L 32.35
10yr return = 8%
Ex longest losing run 11

Seems 2012-2021 are just variance in the results as the more years are added the results tend to revert to the mean (approx 5%-10% overound)
and 8% profit over that timespan is not realy a worthwhile target even at a decent sr the cramped odds could and most probably would wipe the whole lot out with an above average bad run .
I wouldnt be throwing my lads inheritance at it thats for sure.
But you never know
G'Luck

ATB
VT

PS
Forgot to add, non of the 2nd or 3rd favs with above average IV's make a profit either for the same reasons as the favs ( just saving anyone time whose thinking of checking those out )

 

 

 

 

Wow, many thanks @Valiant Thor I do love a good data analysis ?

The last 2 tables have headers with DEC instead of FEB. That's a typo \ miss-print I hope.

Cheers,

G.

[Underbet Non-Hcap Cheltenham Chase favourites - February 2022]

8 minutes ago, Valiant Thor said:

From 20yrs data

There were 573 runners started Fav or JT Fav of those 306 won @ an ave winning odds of 2.06
This gives a return of 629.50 @ book sp with a profit of 56.50 ( 9.8%) if backed @ 1pt blindly.
The IV shows favs in these races @ this time of year are 2.7 times more likely to win than average (IV of 1.00)
**For the pedants out there who think the total sr should equal 100% its due to jt favs , 2nd favs etc **

ATB
VT

 

Brilliant analysis @Valiant Thor

Many thanks!

One question; does this exclude Novice races?

[Naps - Thursday 17th February]

15:05 Clonmel No. 14 Beechmount Maisie @ 4.75 WIN Paddypower\Betfair

[Underbet Non-Hcap Cheltenham Chase favourites - February 2022]

2 races today:

date        time  course_name   race_title
2022-02-17  1455  Sandown Park  Castel Royal Artillery Gold Cup (Chase For Military Amateur Jockeys) (3)
2022-02-17  1615  Clonmel       Monksgrange Beginners Chase

 

[Underbet Non-Hcap Cheltenham Chase favourites - February 2022]

On 2/15/2022 at 11:49 AM, gbettle said:

One race today:

date        time  course_name     race_title
2022-02-15  1630  Lingfield Park  At The Races App Market Movers Open Hunters' Chase (6)

 

1st, No. 3 Dolphin Square BSP 1.97 :

"Tracked leaders, made challenge after 7th, led after 2 out (usual 3 out), ridden and went clear before last, comfortably (op 8/11 tchd Evens)"

[£20 Daily Challenge - All Welcome]

event_date	time	course	selection	betfair	position
2022-02-17	13:20	Clonmel	Hors Piste	1.8
2022-02-17	13:27	Fontwell	Barony Legends	1.77
2022-02-17	18:30	Chelmsford City	Highfield Princess	1.5
Bet	Total Outlay	Total Return	Total Profit
Trixie	20.00 (4 bets of 5.00)	66.60	46.60

[£20 Daily Challenge - All Welcome]

9 hours ago, gbettle said:

 

event_date	time	course	selection	betfair	position
2022-02-16	13:55	Hereford	Godrevy Point	1.31
2022-02-16	19:00	Kempton	Della Mare	1.9
2022-02-16	19:30	Kempton	May Sonic	1.89
Bet	Total Outlay	Total Return	Total Profit
Trixie	20.00 (4 bets of 5.00)	66.30	46.30

 

event_date	time	course	selection	betfair	position
2022-02-16	13:55	Hereford	Godrevy Point	1.31	1
2022-02-16	19:00	Kempton	Della Mare	1.9	3
2022-02-16	19:30	Kempton	May Sonic	1.89	3
Bet	Total Outlay	Total Return	Total Profit
Trixie	20.00 (4 bets of 5.00)	0.00	-20.00
Month	bets	outlay	return	profit
2	16	320	194.75	-125.25

[Naps - Wednesday 16th February]

15:50 Wetherby No. 1 Beat Box @ 6.4 WIN Paddypower\Betfair

[£20 Daily Challenge - All Welcome]

event_date	time	course	selection	betfair	position
2022-02-16	13:55	Hereford	Godrevy Point	1.31
2022-02-16	19:00	Kempton	Della Mare	1.9
2022-02-16	19:30	Kempton	May Sonic	1.89
Bet	Total Outlay	Total Return	Total Profit
Trixie	20.00 (4 bets of 5.00)	66.30	46.30

[£20 Daily Challenge - All Welcome]

23 hours ago, gbettle said:

 

event_date	time	course	selection	betfair	position
2022-02-15	13:35	Lingfield	Cousu Main	1.82
2022-02-15	16:30	Lingfield	Dolphin Square	1.99
2022-02-15	19:15	Newcastle	Pepper Streak	1.8
Bet	Total Outlay	Total Return	Total Profit
Trixie	20.00 (4 bets of 5.00)	85.00	65.00

Cousu Main lost a shoe ... we've all been there LOL

event_date	time	course	selection	betfair	position
2022-02-15	13:35	Lingfield	Cousu Main	1.82	PU
2022-02-15	16:30	Lingfield	Dolphin Square	1.99	1
2022-02-15	19:15	Newcastle	Pepper Streak	1.8	1
Bet	Total Outlay	Total Return	Total Profit
Trixie	20.00 (4 bets of 5.00)	17.91	-2.09
Month	bets	outlay	return	profit
2	15	300	194.75	-105.25

[Underbet Non-Hcap Cheltenham Chase favourites - February 2022]

One race today:

date        time  course_name     race_title
2022-02-15  1630  Lingfield Park  At The Races App Market Movers Open Hunters' Chase (6)

 

[Naps - Tuesday 15th February]

13:20 Ayr No. 2 Atlantic Dancer @ 6.6 WIN Paddypower\Betfair

[£20 Daily Challenge - All Welcome]

event_date	time	course	selection	betfair	position
2022-02-15	13:35	Lingfield	Cousu Main	1.82
2022-02-15	16:30	Lingfield	Dolphin Square	1.99
2022-02-15	19:15	Newcastle	Pepper Streak	1.8
Bet	Total Outlay	Total Return	Total Profit
Trixie	20.00 (4 bets of 5.00)	85.00	65.00

[£20 Daily Challenge - All Welcome]

9 hours ago, gbettle said:

 

event_date	time	course	selection	betfair	position
2022-02-14	13:45	Plumpton	Mark of Gold	1.28
2022-02-14	14:05	Catterick	Miss Fairfax	1.75
2022-02-14	18:30	Wolverhampton	Nate The Great	1.96
Bet	Total Outlay	Total Return	Total Profit
Trixie	20.00 (4 bets of 5.00)	62.85	42.85
Month	bets	outlay	return	profit
2	13	260	165.64	-94.36

 

event_date	time	course	selection	betfair	position
2022-02-14	13:45	Plumpton	Mark of Gold	1.28	1
2022-02-14	14:05	Catterick	Miss Fairfax	1.75	1
2022-02-14	18:30	Wolverhampton	Nate The Great	1.96	3
Bet	Total Outlay	Total Return	Total Profit
Trixie	20.00 (4 bets of 5.00)	11.20	-8.80
Month	bets	outlay	return	profit
2	14	280	176.84	-103.16

[Naps - Monday 14th February]

17:00 Wolverhampton No. 1 Rockett Man @ 4.5 WIN Paddypower\Betfair

[£20 Daily Challenge - All Welcome]

event_date	time	course	selection	betfair	position
2022-02-14	13:45	Plumpton	Mark of Gold	1.28
2022-02-14	14:05	Catterick	Miss Fairfax	1.75
2022-02-14	18:30	Wolverhampton	Nate The Great	1.96
Bet	Total Outlay	Total Return	Total Profit
Trixie	20.00 (4 bets of 5.00)	62.85	42.85
Month	bets	outlay	return	profit
2	13	260	165.64	-94.36

[£20 Daily Challenge - All Welcome]

9 hours ago, gbettle said:

Good luck all

 

event_date	time	course	selection	betfair	position
2022-02-13	14:10	Punchestown	Ciel De Neige	2.44
2022-02-13	14:30	Exeter	Triple Trade	1.73
2022-02-13	16:40	Punchestown	Jamess Gate	1.82
Bet	Total Outlay	Total Return	Total Profit
Trixie	20.00 (4 bets of 5.00)	97.47	77.47

 

event_date	time	course	selection	betfair	position
2022-02-13	14:10	Punchestown	Ciel De Neige	2.44	1
2022-02-13	14:30	Exeter	Triple Trade	1.73	3
2022-02-13	16:40	Punchestown	Jamess Gate	1.82	1
Bet	Total Outlay	Total Return	Total Profit
Trixie	20.00 (4 bets of 5.00)	22.20	2.20
Month	bets	outlay	return	profit
2	13	260	165.64	-94.36

[Underbet Non-Hcap Cheltenham Chase favourites - February 2022]

10 hours ago, gbettle said:

date        time  course_name  race_title
2022-02-13  1340  Punchestown  Hollywoodbets Bet 10 Get 30 P.P. Hogan Memorial Cross Country Chase
2022-02-13  1600  Exeter       Virgin Bet Mares' Chase (Listed) (1)

 

3rd Tout Est Permis and 1st Snow Leopardess, so +0.20pts for the day.

[Southwell draw bias]

6 hours ago, gbettle said:

Date		Leg	Time	Num	Selections				Stall	Runners	Length
13/02/2022	1	13:50	5,12,3	Gustav Graves,Jazz Legend,Mayelf	5,6,8	11	6f
13/02/2022	2	14:20	5,1	Another Bertie,Arkid			4,9	8	5f
13/02/2022	3	14:50	1,4	Night Narcissus,Airshow			5,7	9	5f
13/02/2022	4	15:20	3	Chase The Dollar			6	7	1m6f
13/02/2022	5	15:50	7,2	Tanglewood Tales,Star Dreamer		6,7	11	1m4f
13/02/2022	6	16:20	2	Ayr Harbour				6	7	1m

24-line place pot

Out in the 1st leg LOL

Southwell Tote Placepot Prize Fund: £82,355

Dividend of £72.60 to a £1 stake:

[Southwell draw bias]

Date		Leg	Time	Num	Selections				Stall	Runners	Length
13/02/2022	1	13:50	5,12,3	Gustav Graves,Jazz Legend,Mayelf	5,6,8	11	6f
13/02/2022	2	14:20	5,1	Another Bertie,Arkid			4,9	8	5f
13/02/2022	3	14:50	1,4	Night Narcissus,Airshow			5,7	9	5f
13/02/2022	4	15:20	3	Chase The Dollar			6	7	1m6f
13/02/2022	5	15:50	7,2	Tanglewood Tales,Star Dreamer		6,7	11	1m4f
13/02/2022	6	16:20	2	Ayr Harbour				6	7	1m

24-line place pot

[Naps - Sunday 13th February]

16:10 Punchestown No. 14 Petrol Head @ 5.8 WIN Paddypower\Betfair

[£20 Daily Challenge - All Welcome]

Good luck all

event_date	time	course	selection	betfair	position
2022-02-13	14:10	Punchestown	Ciel De Neige	2.44
2022-02-13	14:30	Exeter	Triple Trade	1.73
2022-02-13	16:40	Punchestown	Jamess Gate	1.82
Bet	Total Outlay	Total Return	Total Profit
Trixie	20.00 (4 bets of 5.00)	97.47	77.47

[Underbet Non-Hcap Cheltenham Chase favourites - February 2022]

date        time  course_name  race_title
2022-02-13  1340  Punchestown  Hollywoodbets Bet 10 Get 30 P.P. Hogan Memorial Cross Country Chase
2022-02-13  1600  Exeter       Virgin Bet Mares' Chase (Listed) (1)

 

[Underbet Non-Hcap Cheltenham Chase favourites - February 2022]

Update for the month:

[£20 Daily Challenge - All Welcome]

11 hours ago, gbettle said:

Giddy up Trixie

 

event_date	time	course	selection	betfair	position
2022-02-12	16:00	Naas	Elimay	1.19
2022-02-12	16:30	Naas	Billaway	1.4
2022-02-12	16:37	Lingfield	Notre Belle Bete	1.11
Bet	Total Outlay	Total Return	Total Profit
Trixie	20.00 (4 bets of 5.00)	31.95	11.95

 

So, a profit is a profit LOL

event_date	time	course	selection	betfair	position
2022-02-12	16:00	Naas	Elimay	1.19	1
2022-02-12	16:30	Naas	Billaway	1.4	1
2022-02-12	16:37	Lingfield	Notre Belle Bete	1.11	1
Bet	Total Outlay	Total Return	Total Profit
Trixie	20.00 (4 bets of 5.00)	31.95	11.95
Month	bets	outlay	return	profit
2	12	240	143.44	-96.56