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gbettle

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    £20 Daily Challenge - All Welcome

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    6 hours ago, gbettle said:

     

    event_date time course selection betfair position
    2022-01-27 14:05 Gowran Park Klassical Dream 1.41  
    2022-01-27 15:35 Gowran Park Coeur Sublime 1.5  
    2022-01-27 16:07 Gowran Park Mercurey 1.68  
               
               
    Bet Total Outlay Total Return Total Profit    
    Trixie 20.00 (4 bets of 5.00) 52.79 32.79    

     

    event_date time course selection betfair position
    2022-01-27 14:05 Gowran Park Klassical Dream 1.41 4
    2022-01-27 15:35 Gowran Park Coeur Sublime 1.5 1
    2022-01-27 16:07 Gowran Park Mercurey 1.68 1
               
               
    Bet Total Outlay Total Return Total Profit    
    Trixie 20.00 (4 bets of 5.00) 12.60 -7.40    
               
    Month bets outlay return profit  
    1 27 540 677.29 137.29  

    Underbet Non-Hcap Cheltenham Chase favourites - February 2022

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    15 minutes ago, MCLARKE said:

    I only have numbers for the last 8 years but these do show positive returns.

    For December and January I have 46 winners from 117 runners with an AE of 1.11.

    Hurdles have an AE of 1.22, chases 0.84.

    Worryingly, the last 3 years have all shown losses !

    Remember the whole premise is in February, the month before the festival. I looked at my own dwh - RP and BSP datasets - and all other months were dire, only adding strength to the OP's original February dataset.

    Underbet Non-Hcap Cheltenham Chase favourites - February 2022

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Howdy all,

    Hope this message finds everyone well - roll on Cheltenham.

    Speaking of Cheltenham, I've read an interesting theory*, that, "in non handicap chases leading up to Cheltenham the favourites do disproportionally well as the uncompetitive nature of the racing due to the festival approaching led to small fields and underbet favourites."

    From that article TL;DR: 

    "... in simple numbers qualifiers from February favourites have shown a profit since 1998 to 2019 in 15 months and a loss in only 7 months to SP (starting price, *not used BSP as not going that long) and an overall profit to SP of 5.5% with an A/E 1.1. Incredible really on a massive sample size of 1600 qualifiers on short prices at SP."

    I've checked that - with Adrian Massey - and indeed a BSP profit is achieved:

    • 2012 to 2021, 630 bets, 330 winners, 109.2% returns
    • remove the novice chases:  2012 to 2021, 321 bets, 179 winners, 119.0% returns

    Would anyone be kind enough to peer review these \ collaborate with their own another source\dataset? 

    * - https://www.mylittletip.co.uk/post/knowing-too-much

     

    Favs non-hcap chases Feb 2012-2021 to BSP.jpg

    Favs non-hcap chases Feb 2012-2021 exclude novices to BSP.jpg

    2022-02 feb non-hcap chases.jpg

    £20 Daily Challenge - All Welcome

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted · Edited by gbettle
    wasn't finished

    14 minutes ago, roger2256 said:

    Your missing the point as to what gb is referring to when he asks ' why' 

    Are you aware of the government's new gambling review ? 

    Basically it's a bunch of do gooders poking their noses into other people's business and deciding what we, the public can and can't bet on and how much . 

    Do you understand the similarities here ? 

    Cheers Roger, my sentiments exactly  

    £20 Daily Challenge - All Welcome

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted · Edited by gbettle
    re-alignment of cells

    11 hours ago, gbettle said:

    Good luck all.

     

    event_date time course selection betfair position
    2022-01-26 14:10 Catterick Get Your Own 2.06  
    2022-01-26 17:00 Kempton Montesecco 2.36  
    2022-01-26 19:00 Kempton Come On Girl 2.44  
               
               
    Bet Total Outlay Total Return Total Profit    
    Trixie 20.00 (4 bets of 5.00) 137.54 117.54    

     

    event_date time course selection betfair position
    2022-01-26 14:10 Catterick Get Your Own 2.06 3
    2022-01-26 17:00 Kempton Montesecco 2.36 5
    2022-01-26 19:00 Kempton Come On Girl 2.44 4
               
               
    Bet Total Outlay Total Return Total Profit    
    Trixie 20.00 (4 bets of 5.00) 0.00 -20.00    
               
    Month bets outlay return profit  
    1 26 520 664.69 144.69  

    £20 Daily Challenge - All Welcome

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    5 hours ago, gbettle said:

    Good luck all.

     

    event_date time course selection betfair position
    2022-01-26 14:10 Catterick Get Your Own 2.06  
    2022-01-26 17:00 Kempton Montesecco 2.36  
    2022-01-26 19:00 Kempton Come On Girl 2.44  
               
               
    Bet Total Outlay Total Return Total Profit    
    Trixie 20.00 (4 bets of 5.00) 137.54 117.54    

    2 to go but I can already see that I should have gone with Criollo:

     

    Criollo.jpg

    £20 Daily Challenge - All Welcome

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    47 minutes ago, The Equaliser said:

    There is no reason why trying to achieve break even if at least one double comes in on a Trixie.  I have done this with over 95% of my Trixies since day one.  In fact you can back one odds on at a price e.g 1/2 and as long as the other two are at least 2/1 against you will still break even or get a small profit if two selections win.

    What concerns me a little bit is that I feel your success over the past few months is very much related to choosing the correct odds on shots that have produced the goods for you.  The above selections seem to me to be based upon a different selection criteria you successfully applied yesterday.

    I do wish you every success with these as I am sure all your followers do, however, I have doubts that if you applied the above evens per selection in the future that you would have the same success that you have achieved in the past.

    Good luck anyway,      

    It's not a different selection criteria - those are the shortest priced favs (with only 0 or 1 RP tip - see below) when I took my odds line from Betfair at 10:19 GMT.

    The system is:

    1. from all UK & Eire races, find the favourites;
    2. compare them with the RP Naps table, found here
    3. take any favourite that has either 0 or 1 tip from the RP Naps Table - we now have a set of candidates for my daily trixie
    4. filter that set of candidates by 0 or 1 tip only, and then take the lowest 3.

    £20 Daily Challenge - All Welcome

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    6 hours ago, gbettle said:

     

    event_date time course selection betfair position
    2022-01-25 13:10 Down Royal Deploy The Getaway 1.74  
    2022-01-25 14:50 Leicester Walk In Clover 1.57  
    2022-01-25 17:00 Southwell Blue Trail 1.52  
               
               
    Bet Total Outlay Total Return Total Profit    
    Trixie 20.00 (4 bets of 5.00) 59.58 39.58    

     

    event_date time course selection betfair position
    2022-01-25 13:10 Down Royal Deploy The Getaway 1.74 1
    2022-01-25 14:50 Leicester Walk In Clover 1.57 1
    2022-01-25 17:00 Southwell Blue Trail 1.52 1
               
               
    Bet Total Outlay Total Return Total Profit    
    Trixie 20.00 (4 bets of 5.00) 59.58 39.58    
               
    Month bets outlay return profit  
    1 25 500 664.69 164.69  

    £20 Daily Challenge - All Welcome

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    44 minutes ago, Valiant Thor said:

     

    In a word Yes

     @MCLARKE is correct in part but his statement does not paint the full picture.

    From what I can see your ave odds are around 1.75 , now if these were the true odds then his statement would be correct

    but some will be true odds of <1.75 and others will be over bet odds and should be >1.75 , so finding a method that gives a reasonable estimation of what the price should be for your selections would help with the variance .

    I cannot understand why your backing trixies with an ave odds so low when the break even minimum is odds of 2.00 unless as @Bang on & @Wildgarden have discussed for bank retention.

    All your profits are from the treble coming up as @ those odds in most cases a double does not break even , I guess its some punters like regular hits to keep the interest up while others can wait a while between drinks

    Personally I'd either do
    Doubles (go to the bar more often  ave 6% return for a win)
     Treble (more time between drinks ave 435% return for a win)

    IMO To find out which suits your style of punting best I'd do a Monte Carlo sim of 1 months results in excel then expand the results for an expected 12 months using the  Data Table in the What-If Analysis, This will give you a good indication of what to expect.

    ATB
    VT ?

     

    Many thanks VT,

    Always appreciate your comments & observations. I've done Monte Carlo simulations before so I had better fill my boots and crunch some stats. 

    I'm also thinking of breaking up the trixie, into the doubles and treble, £10 total stake each.

    £20 Daily Challenge - All Welcome

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted · Edited by gbettle
    wasn't finished

    24 minutes ago, Valiant Thor said:

    image.png.e61abeca647689534118cd77ca7b4001.png

    I think you'll find its 76% down to randomness

    image.png.3698fd22fb6aa111a5ca652a460ca501.png

    Evening Valiant, 

    Many thanks for your reply. And so nice to hear from you in this thread again.

    I guess I'm waiting for the regression to the mean anytime now LOL I wasn't kidding when I said you'd be bonkers taking them as single bets.

    In all seriousness, would it be not be better to break down the trixies into their individual bets, and then analyze the 3 doubles and 1 treble? Or is it really not worth it as @MCLARKE pointed out - if their isn't a LSP to speak of, no exotic bet of the singles will ever improve the system.

    £20 Daily Challenge - All Welcome

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    8 hours ago, gbettle said:

     

    event_date time course selection betfair position
    2022-01-24 13:00 Southwell Swiss Connection 2.32  
    2022-01-24 16:00 Southwell Vespasian 2.22  
    2022-01-24 18:30 Wolverhampton Chorus Song 2.14  
               
               
    Bet Total Outlay Total Return Total Profit    
    Trixie 20.00 (4 bets of 5.00) 129.44 109.44    

    event_date time course selection betfair position
    2022-01-24 13:00 Southwell Swiss Connection 2.32 5
    2022-01-24 16:00 Southwell Vespasian 2.22 2
    2022-01-24 18:30 Wolverhampton Chorus Song 2.14 3
               
               
    Bet Total Outlay Total Return Total Profit    
    Trixie 20.00 (4 bets of 5.00) 0.00 -20.00    
               
    Month bets outlay return profit  
    1 24 480 605.11 125.11  

    £20 Daily Challenge - All Welcome

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    9 minutes ago, Bang on said:

    @gbettle is obviously very happy with the returns (and who wouldn't with a profit most months). Keep 'em coming.

    Personally I am not a fan of very short prices .. but must admit to backing these selections as a TREBLE ONLY with a moderately aggressive staking plan (1-5 pts) to make the most of the winning trebles. At just £10 per point January is almost +£750 (I personally stake a bit more)...Thanks for posting.

    Thanks @Bang on for your kind words.

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