Swami
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Posts posted by Swami
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Cristian @1.80 bf
Unimpressed by Sevastova that struggled vs. an injured Avanesyan, she was slow on the ball and out of shape imo, Cristian on the other hand is showing great confidence and a very good ball striking, plus she plays in her home country so she will be 100% focused.
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Wang Yafan @1.71 bf
Wang has been really solid lately, beating Cirstea and Raducanu at the AO, and only losing in 3 vs. Zheng. In this tournament she defeated easily Korneeva and Schmiedlova. She is far more experienced than Volynets, and I don’t see her losing this one.
- ThunderDan9, four-leaf and CzechPunter
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Svitolina @1.63 bf
Noskova’s odds a little inflated because of the win over Iga, but not totally off, she played well even if it was mostly Iga’s fault, always rushing and rushing… I don’t think Elina will make the same mistake, she will be 100% focused, with the draw so open she has a real shot at making the finals… let’s see if order is restored and experience will prevail, as usually happens in the Slams
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10 hours ago, Smiles Tennis said:
Krejcikova to beat Andreeva - 2.75 Bet365
The odds shouldn't have flipped this much since their last meeting a few months ago.
Good call. Every time I watch Mirra Andreeva playing I see her becoming a good player… but the “next big thing”? I don’t think so… she might find some space in the contemporary WTA, which is in general very low quality in comparison with the past decades, but nothing more
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AO WTA - of the 32 seeds that started the tournament on Monday only 6 has survived. Only 3 of them are top 10 players. I can’t remember anything like this happening before, at least in a GS
- CzechPunter, amity and ThunderDan9
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7 hours ago, timovk said:
AUS Open WTA Outright Winner Sabalenka @4.30 Draftkings
Sabalenka has been very solid here: 3-0 loosing only 6 games. She is tough nut to crack even to Swiatek who has not been at her best lately. Sabalenka has beaten Swiatek twice on hard and IMO everything over @3.00 has value!
AUS Open ATP Outright Winner Djokovic, @2.1 Draftkings
Nole has played just what he has required. Loosing two sets, but he has not played in 100%. I have even 70% for the Serb, so a lot of value!
Don’t like Djokovic’s odds here, he will probably find Sinner in the semis and in that case Sinner’s odds should be no more than 2.30 imo… and then, if he wins, Alcaraz or Medvedev in the final
For how she is playing, I’m not sure Iga will make it to the final, Aryna looks like the most in form player at the moment, yesterday was literally unplayable and double bageled Tsurenko with no effort at all. 4.30 not bad odds, considered that she will be the heavy fav in every match she will play
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11 hours ago, Swami said:
Frech + Kostyuk @1.80 bet365
Frech has proven to be extremely solid in the previous matches, she looks very confident and overall is a better player than Zakharova. Avanesyan doesn't belong to this level, I expect Kostyuk to take care of her easily.
What a strange AO so far... especially the WTA side, a lot of average players peaking and a lot of seeded players underperforming and going home early, the randomness of it doesn't help betting, I'm staying out of it most of the times
Can't believe Frech didn't lose the third set, she was completely out of gas and Zakharova was bossing her around missing very few shots... peak WTA as usual... not to talk about Kostyuk's and Andreeva's matches 😱
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Frech + Kostyuk @1.80 bet365
Frech has proven to be extremely solid in the previous matches, she looks very confident and overall is a better player than Zakharova. Avanesyan doesn't belong to this level, I expect Kostyuk to take care of her easily.
What a strange AO so far... especially the WTA side, a lot of average players peaking and a lot of seeded players underperforming and going home early, the randomness of it doesn't help betting, I'm staying out of it most of the times
- CzechPunter and Torque
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Svitolina 2-0 + Kasatkina @1.90 bet 365
Don’t think that Preston has the game to bother Elina in any way, I’ve watched her playing a couple of times and I’m unimpressed tbh.
Worst possible matchup for Stearns imo. She is so prone to unforced errors and Dasha can really drive her crazy making her play a lot of extra balls. Not surprised that the 2 previous H2H ended 6-2 6-1 and 6-0 6-1.
- four-leaf, CzechPunter and ThunderDan9
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Saville @1.92 bf
Don’t understand these odds frankly, Saville already won vs. Frech last year when she was just back in the circuit, is coming from a good run in Hobart, and is playing in her home country. Moreover, Saville has a lot of variations in her game that can cause trouble to players much more gifted than Frech. 1.60 would have been the right odds imo.
- Duffyduck74, CzechPunter and four-leaf
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Cilic is 36 now and in 2023 he played only 3 official matches, I’m really tempted to go with Marozsan @1.80 in a 3/5 match… the only thing preventing me at the moment is an apparently hard fought 3setter match vs. Struff in Hong Kong at the beginning of the year… have you seen him playing in Hong Kong? What do you think?
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Ostapenko @ 1.66 bf
I’ve seen Penko in the last matches always in control and painting the lines, like she really wants to win the tournament… Dasha is not an easy opponent for her, great defensive game on her side, but I think in the end Penko will prevail
- ThunderDan9, four-leaf and CzechPunter
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On 11/12/2023 at 4:24 AM, Torque said:
Completely agree. There's question marks over almost everybody else in the field, whilst Djokovic has clearly been aiming himself at this since the US Open. It's a short price, but I can't particularly make a case for any of the other players and so I'll be on Djokovic also.
At these odds, tbh I would rather go against him… Medvedev and Alcaraz can both beat him anytime, maybe also this new version of Sinner can challenge him… yesterday Nole already played a 3 hrs match vs. Rune, it doesn’t look good to me
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I’m watching the WTA finals in Cancun… never seen a court like this, not even in ITF tournaments, the balls bounce quite randomly, Marketa could almost smash an Iga’s second serve, the ball bounced so high… what a shame
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4 hours ago, Simeon Borisof said:
You should know that she took a MTO yesterday, so if the match goes the distance, it could have an impact.
Thanks, I saw it but after that she was doing just fine… nevertheless today she looked really gassed after she blew the lead in the first and lost the tiebreak… tbh at that point I didn’t think she was gonna make it. I was wrong, luckily
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Parrizas-Diaz @2.70/80 bfThe Spanish have been playing better tennis than Alize so far in the tournament, she looked very determined and hitting well vs. Sharma, with some wobbles vs. Bassols but still coming ahead. Cornet didn’t look at her best frankly so far, slow pace and unusual conservative tennis… she will have the crowd on her side but Parrizas-Diaz is a veteran that have played under all kind of different circumstances and I don’t think she will be bothered much. I see clear value in these odds. H2H 1-0 Parrizas-Diaz
- four-leaf and CzechPunter
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Humbert @1.78 bf
The last 6 matches played by Humbert were in 3 sets, and he lost only one, to Medvedev, beating Tsistipas and Rublev on the way. That should have given him a boost in confidence. Also Wolf won the last 3 matches in 3 sets, but I consider him a far more erratic player, and I’m leaning towards the French here. H2H 1-0 Humbert
- four-leaf, amity and Simeon Borisof
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1 hour ago, CzechPunter said:
Cori Gauff to beat Iga Swiatek at 2.38 with Bet365
Swiatek hasn't been at her usual level so far in Asia, and I think that Gauff is the ideal opponent to take advantage of that. Confident, rested enough, with just enough match practice against reasonable names after the GS win, etc. She has the right power to deal with Swiatek's shots, and she can actually put her under pressure without sacrificing a lot in terms of accuracy. I honestly don't even know why Swiatek is the favourite according to the bookies!
I agree that the odds are not right here, tbh I would have gone with Iga if only she would have been around 1.80 and if Coco wouldn’t have trashed Sakkari like she did… I watched parts of all Coco’s matches in Beijing, vs. Martic she was not very good, vs. Kuder she was pretty bad, vs. Sakkari she was almost unplayable… so to me a lot in this match depends on which version of Coco will show up tomorrow… I still feel that Iga needs this victory more than Coco does, but it looks like that after the Riba/Gilbert cure Coco has really learnt how to win ugly, so I’m really curious to see how it ends
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14 hours ago, CzechPunter said:
Elena Rybakina to beat Aryna Sabalenka at 2.38 with Unibet
Based on the action so far, I like Rybakina at odds against. She's looked more confident and determined, and I think that she's also been serving a little bit better. The margin is tight here, but I think Rybakina is the value pick today.
Congrats on this one, wasn’t easy to call imo. So now we have a n.1 that won just 1 tournament in her last 10 quarterfinals, has Aryna become a bit of a choker?
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10 minutes ago, sterziyskii said:
Will Sakkari win against Wang? I haven't watched Wang in a bit but I think Sakkari should win here, no?
I watched the first set of Maria vs. Linda, and Sakkari wasn’t playing very well, she was down a break 2-3 and 15-40* if I remember correctly… then was able to win the set 6-4, but mostly because of the cheap mistakes made by her opponent, that was quite awful. I don’t know how Wang is doing so far, she is a talented player imo but still green
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Don’t like anything in particular tomorrow, except for Coco - I think her athleticism could make Kuder play some extra shots and the courts are not very fast imo, which should give her some advantage - but the odds are too short, maybe live…
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Kokkinakis + Samsonova @1.93 Pinnacle
I suspect Fognini got to Shangai just to collect the paycheck. He is 0-5 on HC in 2023, hasn’t played on this surface since the US qualis, and in the last tournament he played he had to retire due to injury. H2H: 3-0 Kokkinakis, the last one AO 2023: 6-1 6-2 6-2.
Samsonova is the better player here, she was pretty solid vs. Petra… Kostyuk just defeated the saddest top player around, Jabeur, doesn’t mean a lot to me. H2H 3-0 Samsonova
- sterziyskii and four-leaf
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1 hour ago, Smiles Tennis said:
I read a good piece once about how players from the same countries often have many of the same traits. They said with them often coming from the same academy's (unless they moved abroad when they were young to train) they get the same styles and traits developed. Chinese are mentally weak they said and I agree, there's no mental giants there. British always try to be aggressive baseliners but have bodies made of glass and often have injuries that are long term in their careers.
Czech's have a lot of players with all court games, Vondrousova, Kvitova, Muchova. It was a good piece that got me thinking.
Edit: As to why for the Chinese I don't know. Maybe heavily controlled from a young age? Qinwen has said how she was taken away when she was very young because she showed talent for tennis and didn't live the normal life, just training, and it's known how controlling the Chinese are.
Qinwen’s coach Fissette just before the tournament decided unilaterally to interrupt the professional relationship with her, the reason: Osaka. He chose to get back working with Osaka and left Zheng. The Chinese was obviously very upset, and rightly so imo. I’m not sure about the mental fragility of the Chinese players… you have also to consider that all these players are very young… Na Li used to be pretty solid mentally
Tennis Tips - February 5 - February 11
in Tennis Betting Tips & Predictions
Posted
I'm going to put something on Siegemund in the Doha qualis @ around 3.15... Collins has played yesterday in Abu Dhabi 2:20 hours vs. Rybakina and today struggled a lot in the first round vs. Birrell, a player that normally would have trashed, prevailing in a 3 hours 3setter. It was also the last match of the day. Siegemund too played 2:30 hours but even if older no doubt that she is better athlete here. Of course if Collins isn't running on fumes she's going to win. But it's worth a try imo.