Swami
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Posts posted by Swami
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Alexandrova @1.66 bf
Watched Kalinskaja playing in Osaka and she looked really out of shape, then she lost in Guangzhou in the 1R to Hruncakova… Alexandrova not the most reliable player, but the H2H (4-0 Alexandrova in straight sets) and the recent form of Kalinskaja make me lean toward Alexandrova here…
- CzechPunter and four-leaf
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Garcia @3.05 bf
Caro is the last big hitter standing, all the others -Alexandrova, Keys, Kostyuk…- lost pretty badly, clearly the conditions in Guadalajara don’t suit ballbashers, not easy to control the shots… but tbh I don’t understand the odds here… Vika played well yesterday, but Kudermetova is a walking bye lately… while in the previous match vs. Yastremska she was awful… Caro really needs points in this last part of the season and she will be 100% focused, as she showed vs. Sasnovich and Baptiste. H2H 3-1 Garcia. I can see a clear value in these odds
- CzechPunter, Torque, Duffyduck74 and 1 other
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4 hours ago, CzechPunter said:
Emiliana Arango (+1.5 sets) to beat Maria Sakkari at 2.60 with Unibet
Arango is playing the tournament of her life in Guadalajara, and the fact that she managed that comeback against Townsend should allow her to play without fear against Sakkari. She's not as good, no doubt, but Sakkari has been very shaky under pressure almost all season long, and I don't think it's unrealistic for her to lose a set here, not at all.
Arango took a MTO in the 3rd yesterday (and actually after that she won 3 games in a row and the match lol) and it looked like she was struggling with serve after. I don’t think she can compete with Sakkari today, Maria might not play well lately, but the conditions in Guadalajara cause her no problem, she says she really enjoy playing there, and because of the very weak draw she has a chance at winning the all thing, I see her going trough in straight sets vs. Arango, but good luck!
- CzechPunter and amity
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Maybe Arango + games in Guadalajara? Yesterday she was really solid vs. Potapova, and the Colombian was raised in Medellin, that is 1500 m. high, so no problem for her with playing at this altitude…
- delfino and CzechPunter
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1 hour ago, Stanimal said:
Guys, i have a question for you.
It is illegal betting on tennis being live at matches?
I saw today that there are some chances to get some money betting on games.
Yes, if you get caught you might have some hard times. Anyway, it’s a well known activity, search for “courtsiders tennis betting” on Google and you’ll find all the informations you might want to know
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3 hours ago, CzechPunter said:
I was kinda a fan of Errani back in the day, but now her serves are just puffballs, she was honestly serving just sitters for Noha a couple of days ago, and Noha just errored or put them back at Errani to start a rally. If you'd have a top player there, it'd be easy, she would struggle to get games against the top players nowadays, unfortunately. On this level, though, she can still do some damage, but mainly not through her own good play, but through her opponents' bad play.
I never liked her much, as other and younger Italian players - Cocciaretto or Trevisan - she is an overachiever, not a lot of talent, evident physical limits, just grit, perseverance and a bit of tactics. Schiavone, back in the day, had the same physical limits, but she was a great talent. Honestly, I’m flabbergasted Errani made an RG final and a USO semi in her career. Growing older she also took the habit of bullying umpires and sometimes even opponents. Luckily today Sharma had enough left in the tank to do God’s job and take her out.
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Be aware that the place where they play in Guadalajara is more than 1600 metres high… one might expect some physical issues for some players and of course the balls flying faster than usual. No surprise imo that the tournament has probably the worst main draw for a 1000 ever. But WTA knows better.
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Sharma @2.08 bf
Impressed by the level of tennis showed by Sharma in the tournament, beating top seeds 1, 5 and 3. I watched few games of every match and found her very solid, not only her game, but also mentally. Frankly, even if she loses the final, from what I’ve seen she deserves to be in the top 100 at least imo. Errani, with her exasperating tennis, can bring to the exhaustion any opponent, so it might not be easy, but I’m leaning toward Sharma here, not only because I dislike my fellow countrywoman (and I do🤨), but also because the Australian looked to me potentially a far superior player than Sara… H2H 1-0 Sharma in Bogotà 2019 (clay)
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1 hour ago, Torque said:
Some of the service numbers I see - both WTA and ATP - almost defy belief when you consider these are professionals. An example is Jabeur, who whenever I look seems incapable of serving much better than 50% first serves and sometimes below that.
The thing that really blows my mind is surely all players know that no first serve = massively increased chance of losing point. In any sport at the elite level, marginal gains really count and on that basis it's hard to understand how a player like Jabeur isn't doing something about her first serve percentage. Her chances of winning any match would significantly improve even if she was only able to get to 60%.
I agree, in modern tennis having a good percentage on serve is crucial, but, unless you are really tall, isn’t that easy, cause the movement itself requires a lot of coordination. Also, being the start of the point, is mentally challenging, and if you start missing a lot of serves you have to be super solid in your head to reverse the trend.
As for Jabeur, imo she is one of the most talented players around, even more than Iga or Sabalenka, but I have the feeling that she pretends to care about her job, while in reality she doesn’t much. All that whining about the lost Slam finals… it sounds kind of false to me. In any case, she needs a real coach asap, someone who can push her, force her to work on the aspects of her game that don’t work (serve and shot selection first). Someone who can have the upper hand, from “outside”, cause Jellali is clearly not able to address those issues, as she keeps making the same mistakes again and again.
- CzechPunter and ThunderDan9
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2 hours ago, sterziyskii said:
15 xouble faults in 2 sets with 48% first serve. That was a joke
And you have to add the uncountable unforced… I wonder how she managed to hold serve 3 times, to my disbelief she was even 3-1 up in the 2nd, then she made 3 df in the next game… and that was it.
I hoped Kenin would have to play Collins o the winner of Haddad Maia-Krejicikova, but nope, she is on the other side, and vs. Sakkari or Navarro everything can happen…I don’t know what got Potapova today, she went postal just after 2 games and never recovered… she got also an MTO, and it looked like she had low blood pressure or something, but she was all nerves since the very beginning… relax girl, it’s just tennis 🤨
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Potapova @1.76 bf
Potapova not good vs. Parks, better vs. Jabeur, but still not at her peak… this is mostly a bet against Kenin, she played a perfect match vs. Kedermetova, but yesterday was a lot more erratic and not moving well, also, I think her weak serve will be attacked easily by Potapova, that plays much heavier balls than Volynets. If the Russian can limit the UEs I think she’ll take it
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Medvedev @3.25 bf
It’s always tricky to go against Nole in Grand Slam finals, he has shown multiple times that he can raise his game out of nowhere, and here he has also an extra motivation - seeking revenge for that 2021 USO final, when Daniil stole him the possibility to win the 4th Slam title of the year. But, to be honest, I would have set Medvedev’s line at 1.70/1.80 max for this match. If the Russian keeps playing like he has been doing during the tournament, I don’t see how this Djokovic can beat him. Even better, if Medvedev plays like in the last 3 sets vs. De Minaur, or in the 2nd set vs. Alcaraz, I can see a 3-0 coming. And the fact that Nole has had a joke of a draw till now, a 500’s level draw to be generous, doesn’t help him much imo. It would need a vintage version of Nole, or Daniil lowering drastically his level, for the Serb to win this match. Hope it doesn’t happen. Usually don’t like to bet for/against a player two times in a row, but considered the level of tennis displayed by Medvedev so far I can’t pass on this one.
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Medvedev @4.5 bf
As I wrote before today, odds really high for the Russian, Daniil is playing better than Carlos, that has faced so far only half decent players (Zverev was injured in the last round), the match could be much closer than what the odds suggest, and there is value here imo. Bet on bf and watching the match, so I might go all green if I feel is the case and have the opportunity.
- sterziyskii, MJT and timovk
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Medvedev @4+ vs. Alcaraz is really tempting. I have seen both playing in this tournament and there is no doubt in my mind that the Russian is playing better than Carlos. Also, he really loves the courts in New York, is a surface that suits perfectly his tennis, and he still is, along with Nole, the best at shot selection among the top players. On the other hand, from the previous h2h it looks like Daniil’s game doesn’t bother Alcaraz much, his explosiveness breaking Daniil’s spider web quite easily… Anyway, if there is a tournament where Medvedev can beat Alcaraz, or getting close to it, is definitely the USO imo. So the odds have some value here.
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Vondrousova has been seen with ice on the left harm and crying a little after her win vs. Stearns, not a good sign heading into the match vs. Madison (which is planned the day after tomorrow, anyway) -
Wozniacki @ 1.88 bf
Unimpressed with Brady so far in the tournament… even in the first set vs. Linette, that she won 6-1, she struggled a lot on serve (check the stats). Woz is a better retourner than Linette, she looks fit, clearly she is confident, more experienced, I don’t see her losing this one… she might even be a dark horse in the tournament imo, causing trouble to more valued players
- CzechPunter and MJT
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8 minutes ago, MJT said:
It was Khachanov's first match back since the start of the year so not sure I would take much from that win. This is also Isner's last ever match so will be sure to be motivated. Another match that will likely feature tie breaks and you would be a brave person to back against Isner in tie breaks. Good luck though.
Did you see Isner’s stats 2023 on HC?
He is 2-8.
About tie breaks… in those matches he won 4 tie breaks and lost 9.These are really bad numbers heading into this match.
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Mmoh @1.98 bf
25 years old Mmoh just routined Kachanov in 3 sets and now faces 38 years old Isner… the odds have clearly value here imo.
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13 hours ago, Torque said:
She's not comfortable on grass and she's said as much. That might be something to do with it.
And still for the bookies she deserves top player’s odds, yesterday on bf you could lay her @1.10/13
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51 minutes ago, ejmali333 said:
Failing to see why is Mcdonald not a huge favourite against Cerundolo? I know he is not a typical clay player, he is quite tall and has a good serve... but still. Anyone else?
I suppose Mallorca’s central court is not the fastest grass we have seen, and even slower now after all the matches that have been played there… imo the odds are right
- Torque and CzechPunter
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I’ll keep an eye on Mirra’s draw, today lost her service a lot, deserved to lose the 1st set and choked in the second losing 5 straight games to Korpatch, maybe just a bad day, maybe not
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Carle + 5.5 @2
Sherif will play her 7nth match in 10 days, I hope she’ll be a little tired. Carle knows how to play on clay and this handicap looks good to me.
Tennis Tips - September 25 - October 1
in Tennis Betting Tips & Predictions
Posted
Pegula @1.80 bf
The H2H (5-3 Sakkari) and the fact that Maria is on a good streak might suggest the opposite, but imo Pagula’s game intensity, when she is in good shape, should just be too much for Sakkari… plus these courts suit her game perfectly. Don’t say that she will win in straight sets, but I think that in the end the American will prevail.