mark22

Right, we have the few final tournaments before the big one. Good luck, guys!
Adrian Mannarino to beat Arthur Cazaux at 1.83 with Pinnacle
I saw a bit of Cazaux in the qualifiers he played against Korda and Popyrin and I think he's overvalued here. He does have a decent future ahead, but he hasn't beaten that many players of Mannarino's level yet and Mannarino looked decent against Dellien. In a year or two, Cazaux will be 1.30 in this match-up, but I like Mannarino at 1.83 this year.

just what I wanted to comment but couldn't log in yesterday.. well, this is more like good prediction but wrong bet chosen. I made this mistake in past, but then I started to avoid betting on HC lines on clay. Underdogs often take set, but are not competitive in other 2. HC lines are set too low comparing odds on victory. Better bet his is Sonego games won, if line was like 7 or 8 games, your bet is won after 2nd set and you don't care how match ends ? on other surfaces HC is more useful bet. good luck

I didn't check the weather for today and it was a rookie move. The little rain made the balls too heavy for Schwartzman. Obviously it wasn't a problem for FAA. 

Khachanov - Delbonis 2 @2.08 with WWin
Khachanov is in bad form lately, he can´t rely on his serve which gets him many ´´free points´´ in combination with strong forehand. On clay he lost 3/4 matches and slow surface in Rome will be another bad thing for him. Today he has a strong opponent, Delbonis has 17 wins on clay this season, his game is very consistent. He already beat Giron and Tiafoe here, so he adapted to conditions. I watched him against Berrettini and I was suprised by his game, so here as an underdog I´ll take him.
Dellien (-3.5 games) - Mannarino @1.75 with WWin 
Another pair from Rome. Dellien is decent player on clay, he crushed Bedene and Munar in quali. In first round of main tournament he got lucky with draw, because opponent is Mannarino. Player for hard/fast courts in my opinion will have troubles with conditions here, also his 0/6 record on clay in last matches won´t help him. First round exist in Monte Carlo, Barcelona and Madrid are latest results. I expect at least one very bad set from the Frenchman to help Dellien cover HC line.

Khachanov - Delbonis 2 @2.08 with WWin
Khachanov is in bad form lately, he can´t rely on his serve which gets him many ´´free points´´ in combination with strong forehand. On clay he lost 3/4 matches and slow surface in Rome will be another bad thing for him. Today he has a strong opponent, Delbonis has 17 wins on clay this season, his game is very consistent. He already beat Giron and Tiafoe here, so he adapted to conditions. I watched him against Berrettini and I was suprised by his game, so here as an underdog I´ll take him.
Dellien (-3.5 games) - Mannarino @1.75 with WWin 
Another pair from Rome. Dellien is decent player on clay, he crushed Bedene and Munar in quali. In first round of main tournament he got lucky with draw, because opponent is Mannarino. Player for hard/fast courts in my opinion will have troubles with conditions here, also his 0/6 record on clay in last matches won´t help him. First round exist in Monte Carlo, Barcelona and Madrid are latest results. I expect at least one very bad set from the Frenchman to help Dellien cover HC line.

Aryna Sabalenka (-1.5 sets) to beat Daria Kasatkina at 1.80 with Pinnacle
 
I did not like Kasatkina 's performance in her last two matches. She made too much unforced errors  against Begu but won some critical points then she saw second round.I dont think that Kasatkina is in her top form.
On the other hand, Aryna Sabalenka was very good in her last match. Big serves.  Big plays. Her serves are much better than Kasatkina's serves. I believe that she will break Kasatkina's serves in rows.
H2H stat shows Sabalenka won 2-0 in this surface. I expect same score for this match.
 
Good luck !

One of those things that's disgusting when it happens against you, but beautiful when it does go your way. Unlucky man. 
ah, I've already boarded the good ship Ramos-Vinolas again against Norrie. Kind of feel he deserves a title for all the high level tennis he's played this year so far. Will be rooting for him, even though I like Cam Norrie too - and fully aware Cam's also playing great of late. kind of has to be to come through against 3 clay specialists and Cilic!

Ramos - Davidovich Fokina 2 @1.63
Young Spaniard plays excellent this week, he had tougher opponents than Ramos. Andujar, Chardy and Humbert in road to semifinal. H2H is 1:1, all on clay courts; Davidovich Fokina won last match in 2019 Genova challenger. He shows more variety in his shots and is more reliable on his serve and I think this could be deciding in this probably close match.
 
Ivashka - Struff 1 @1.56
Struff is playing very good tennis at home tournament in Munich, but semifinal should be his final match here. Yesterday he won though match against Krajinovič - 3h, faced 13 BP on his serve. Ivashka plays very good on Europe clay, last week he took a set from Nadal in Barcelona. He is very good server, in Munich he defeated McDonald, who came from qualifiers with some nice wins. Yesterday Ivashka prepared ´´big suprise´´ knocking out Zverev, 1st seed of tournament. Zverev was serving for match at 7:6 5:4, but Ivashka showed all his talent and turned match around. If he plays like that today, Struff won`t have a chance.
 
Olivo (+1.5 set HC) - Rinderknech 1 @1.75
Olivo, former 78. player from ATP ranking, came to european clay in good form. He eliminated Miedler, Tabilo and Etchevery. He had approximately 11 BP in every match, which led him to pretty easy wins. Rinderknech had a good tournament in Belgrade , losing to Kecmanovic in R16. Here in Ostrava he plays worse in every match. He had troubles against Schnur, who is far from good clay player. Yesterday Klein had advantage of 3:0 and 0:30 on the Frenchman serve in third set, but Klein offered him another chance with errors. He won only 62% points on his serve. Rinderknech won H2H match 6:4 7:6, but I think today we will see different outcome, also win @3.00 is worth trying.

I didn`t say Ramos is bad on clay at all, I just doubted his mindset. Well as you said, he should beat PCB.. I remember the score. Why he didn`t? Mental strength  Only luck here was i played double with Ivashka, so loss is not big. And yeah, odds yesterday were 1.85 on Fokina. I also had long pause from betting and Spaniard is one of those players I probably don`t know well enough, so tnx for the information. Anyway I watched most of the match, Fokina had 4:1 in 2nd set, but then after few errors completely lost his head and lost 5 straight games. Ramos said after the match that this was not real picture from Fokina and that he is pretty afraid of Norrie, since he ``beat`` him on practice few days ago. Maybe useful info for tomorrow.
Otherwise Olivo was serving for first set 5:4 30:0 when Frenchman retired! 2 points left to set win, now it`s void. That is just insane, till that moment he played normally. On the other hand Ivashka took medical timeout, but didn´t retire of course..
Good luck to you too

I said Fokina´s opponents UNTIL semifinals were better than those who Ramos had (Herbert, completely out-of-form Verdasco and Moutet).. and yes, Ramos showed too many times that he is not man for big matches, so my prediction is not based only on last matches and form. 9:10 in semifinals on ATP level, 2:7 in finals. Andujar BTW has 4:5 in ATP finals, so you´re wrong, he´s better clay courter for me than Ramos.

Federico Delbonis to beat Bernabe Zapata Miralles at 1.85 with Pinnacle
I'd have Delbonis as a slightly bigger fav in this one honestly. Miralles has been decent throughout the season, but he's generally had to face lesser opposition than Delbonis and that's where my doubts come from. He also folded against weaker players a couple of times, while Delbonis tends to be stable. His loss against Daniel might look bad on paper, but Taro was playing really well in Belgrade, so no shame in that imo.

Thanks for the input @mark22 and good luck! I agree that Rinderknech has declined a bit. Please try to include the bookmakers next time as well.

Ramos - Davidovich Fokina 2 @1.63
Young Spaniard plays excellent this week, he had tougher opponents than Ramos. Andujar, Chardy and Humbert in road to semifinal. H2H is 1:1, all on clay courts; Davidovich Fokina won last match in 2019 Genova challenger. He shows more variety in his shots and is more reliable on his serve and I think this could be deciding in this probably close match.
 
Ivashka - Struff 1 @1.56
Struff is playing very good tennis at home tournament in Munich, but semifinal should be his final match here. Yesterday he won though match against Krajinovič - 3h, faced 13 BP on his serve. Ivashka plays very good on Europe clay, last week he took a set from Nadal in Barcelona. He is very good server, in Munich he defeated McDonald, who came from qualifiers with some nice wins. Yesterday Ivashka prepared ´´big suprise´´ knocking out Zverev, 1st seed of tournament. Zverev was serving for match at 7:6 5:4, but Ivashka showed all his talent and turned match around. If he plays like that today, Struff won`t have a chance.
 
Olivo (+1.5 set HC) - Rinderknech 1 @1.75
Olivo, former 78. player from ATP ranking, came to european clay in good form. He eliminated Miedler, Tabilo and Etchevery. He had approximately 11 BP in every match, which led him to pretty easy wins. Rinderknech had a good tournament in Belgrade , losing to Kecmanovic in R16. Here in Ostrava he plays worse in every match. He had troubles against Schnur, who is far from good clay player. Yesterday Klein had advantage of 3:0 and 0:30 on the Frenchman serve in third set, but Klein offered him another chance with errors. He won only 62% points on his serve. Rinderknech won H2H match 6:4 7:6, but I think today we will see different outcome, also win @3.00 is worth trying.

Goncalo Oliveira (+4.5) to beat Pedro Cachin at 2.00 with Bet365
Kacper Zuk to beat Blaz Kavcic at 1.83 with William Hill
Quite like these two Challenger picks for today. Oliveira has looked very solid and won't give up in home conditions. Don't see him as the favorite, but he should have every chance to cover such a solid handicap line. Zuk has also been way more impressive than Kavcic so far. Up and coming player that should have a decent future ahead of himself all things considered.

@CzechPunter nice to see you are still active, I have been out from betting for couple of years. Before that I was big ´´fan´´ of your tips as they were similar to my betting style I´ll share my tip for tonight.
ATP Miami: 01 Apr, 19:00. H.Hurkacz vs S.Tsitsipas; Total Games : Over 21.5 @1.82
I played on Hurkacz in last round agains Raonič, over 22.5 games. not only he covered total games, he also managed to win against big favorite in the match. Hurkacz offered only 2 BP in 3 matches here in Miami and also beat Shapovalov easily. Tsitsipas had troubles against Nishikori, against Sonego he played 21 games with only 4BP chances in match.
H2H is 5:1 for Tsitsipas, but 5 of these matches went in 3 mostly close sets. Today as big underdog I think he can show close match again or even suprise Greek. For me total games line should be set on 23.5/24.5, so there is a value. GL!