marzipan

Was really hoping for a straight sets win for Tiafoe but at last he couldn't keep up the strong play he showed from start. Typically he drops serve when serving for the match.

Should Ramos not be slapping up Rublev in Barcelona? +5.5 Ramos and the win @ 7/2 look good.. Ramos should be tired as well. But.........I think he has the better presence of mind. Barcelona and first meeting on clay strong factors.

Angelique Kerber to beat Ekaterine Gorgodze 2-0 at 1.83 with William Hill
Kerber has gone through all sorts of trouble since her big triumphs, but this should be an easy match to target. Gorgodze qualified as the lucky loser and is ranked below 200+ for a reason. When facing players of slightly better quality in Zarazua and Buyukakcay, Kerber won 6-0 6-0 and 6-4 6-2 this year.

Barthel to beat Siegemund at 2.62 with bet365
Last one for tomorrow. I have been thinking a lot about this one and finally I have decided to take it cause the odds have raised. First of all, I have to say that Siegemund has reached the Final here 2 times (2016 and 2017). Despite that, there are some reasons that make me think she can lost tomorrow. She will play her first match on clay this year. Her last match played was 1 month ago against McHale in Miami, where she had to withdraw due to a knee injury. Barthel has already played 5 matches on clay this month. She has played the qualification in which she has won against Gracheva as the underdog (2.30). They played only once before. It was in 2011 in RG and Barthel won in straight sets. Siegemund is better player but considering that she has not played in the last month due to a knee injury I think the value is on Barthel, who has already played 5 matches on clay in April and she has beat Gracheva on her last match here.

I agree, Cristian Garin are leagues above Kei on clay right now. Garin can hold serve time after time, he's very efficient on that department so one break can mean he wins a set and he will be closer to a break game after game than Kei will be.

Same old story for Paire AGaIN!
?

Quote from Flashscore Tennis Preview
 
Paire did not show any intent to win matches in almost all his previous nine matches of the 2021 season, and he even admitted that he enters tournaments only to collect the first-round prize money.“I lost in the first round, it’s better, I will be able to get out of the bubble quickly and enjoy a few days before Miami. Tennis is not my priority at the moment. Getting out of the bubble is the only goal I have at every tournament," he said after exiting from the first round in Acapulco last month.   Benoit Paire is by far the talented player of these two, but his lack of motivation in recent months should give Federico Gaio a lot of encouragement heading into this clash.

Andrea Petkovic (+6.5) to beat Maria Sakkari at 1.76 with Unibet
I haven't bet on the WTA for quite a while now, but this price I don't understand. Petkovic is worse than Sakkari now, I get that, but Petkovic is a competent player and she'll have the home conditions on her side as well. The 6.5 line implies a difference of two classes and I just don't see that.

Barcelona ATP
Paire to beat Gaio @1.78 unibet
Having won a few games in doubles (with Mannarino) to qualify to main draw, I hope there will be motivation for Paire to play.
5:0 for him in first round of Barcelona ATP. 1 win over Gaio in 2015 (not so important). Former semifinalist. 
 
This guy is a joke and unpredictable but even such players, knowing their talent, have to start to win from time to time. IMHO, it’s a good moment and place.

I add this one.
Muchova to beat Alexandrova at 1.72 with bet365
Alexandrova's game is made for hard courts. She has a negative record on clay courts in 2019 and 2018. In the last edition of this tournament she lost in straight sets against Friedsam (7-5, 6-2) when she was priced at 1.30. I can't say that Muchova has achieved big things on clay but at least she has reached a WTA final (Prague Open). I think her game suits better on this surface so at these odds I take her. This will be the first match on clay for both players. Alexandrova has a 9-7 record this year while Muchova has only lost 1 match this year (8-1) and it was against Barty in the SFs of the AO.

Emil Ruusuvuori to beat Pablo Cuevas at 1.6 with bet365 
After dominating the Challenger Tour, the young Finn has showed tremendous potential to become at least a top-30 player in ATP Tour. He has already defeated the likes of Thiem and Zverev (both wins on hard court) which is very impressive. I think this kid is very ambitious. On the other hand, Cuevas honestly looks like a former tennis player. He seldom wins sets these days, let alone grab wins. At 35, Cuevas is inferior to his opponent, and, probably devotes less hours in practice than he used to. 
Frances Tiafoe to win a set against Carlos Alcaraz at 1.61 with bet365 
Alcaraz is very talented but he's also very immature as a player, which makes sense since he's only 17 years old. In my opinion, he should have been just the slight favorite in this encounter. The odds on Tiafoe are juicy & generous at the moment. Did he travel from the United States to Barcelona with zero ambition? I seriously doubt that. He'll probably try in a way to somehow bully his younger opponent right from the start of the match, otherwise things might quickly get ugly for him. Tiafoe needs to stamp his authority from the start. He certainly has all the weapons to do so (firepower, quality serve, speed, great footwork). 
Good luck. ? 

Hercog to beat Zvonareva at 1.72 with bet365
Hercog has played more than 400 matches on clay on her career and she has already won this tournament before. She has won a tournament played on clay this week in Oeiras. Zvonareva's last years results on clay are really poor and this will be her first match on clay this year. I saw her really affected at the end of her last match against Gasparyan in Saint Petersburg. I saw the whole match and it was a match that she could have won. It was 1 month ago but I saw her really angry at the end of it. The surface favors Hercog game and she has already won here before so at these odds I take her.

Well, for this week, we have ATP Barcelona, ATP Belgrade, WTA Stuttgart, WTA Istanbul + a couple of Challengers. Good luck everyone!

I think that both underdogs have too big odds today, but only slightly so. Evans is on a run, that's always dangerous and I'd never feel comfortable backing Tsitsipas at 1.15 really. Rublev against Ruud can go all the way down to the wire and who's going to have more left in the tank? There's no doubt that Rublev is classier, but he also has two long matches in his legs and against opposition that he had to be at his best against. This is a dangerous spot for him imo. If I had to bet, I'd bet on Ruud either outright or to win a set.

These are typical no bets for anyone. You find that you will always end up picking the wrong one 90% of the time. That is just the way this game is especially if the pick is for betting purposes. Regardless of the h2h score at 4-0 Rublev. Ruud is the play here or no bet. I would not suggest win, I think the route should be alternative handicaps. I will go Ruud @+4.5 4/7. Boy tennis is such an organized mess these days. Nothing is easy with the bookies constantly in vulturic mode.

After this match It's hard to believe that Rublev can do something against Nadal... He even had cramps during the third set. RBA has done a good favour for Nadal. I wonder what he drinks during matches cause this has been impressive. What an athlete. I was eager to see the Nadal-Rublev match since I saw the draw but now this won't be the same... Rublev will play at a disadvantage

Cristian Garín (+4.5) to beat Stefanos Tsitsipas at 1.72 with Bet365
Garin was looking good in his last two matches. He had very few unforced error and got points from long rallies. H2H statiscs say that this handicap is good bet for this match. I dont trust Greek's play. Sometimes his game is not stable in a match. Garin again will play with few unforced error and he can also beat Tsitsipas.
 
Good luck 

Andrey Rublev to beat Roberto Bautista-Agut at 1.52 with Pinnacle
I backed RBA today and he did get the job done, but I think he loses tomorrow. He's been a bit shabby overall so far, just lucky with the draw and enjoying the conditions. Rublev is way better than Fritz/Paul given the surface and I think he'll get the revenge he wants.

I think Garin will beat Millman at 2 sets. He was so good against Aliassime. I can not say same thing for Millman. Humbert had a lot of unforced errors.

Has anybody called Fognini to ask about his intentions for today? ? 

Karatsev to beat Tsitsipas at 2.62 with bet365
Fritz to beat Bautista at 3.20 with bet365
Khachanov to beat Djere at 1.66 with bet365
Popyrin to beat Andujar at 1.50 with bet365
Andujar hasn't played in the last month cause he got an injury in his last match in Chile while Popyrin has already won 2 matches here (vs Arneodo and Hanfmann). Fritz played 3 matches on clay in Cagliari while Bautista was playing in Miami, where he reached the SFs. Fritz has already beat Bautista on clay before so I think these odds are exaggerated. This will be the first match of Khachanov on clay this year, but he will be more fresh than Djere who reached the Final in Cagliari and it was just 2 days ago. Finally, I also take Karatsev against Tsitsipas. Karatsev has already played one match here while Tsitsipas hasn't played yet on clay this year. As has been said here, Karatsev exploded the last year playing on clay when he reached the Final in 3 consecutive Challengers played on clay.
I'm not doing well with my last picks so if these ones go wrong I will take a break. GL.

Popyrin at 1.66 against Pouille seems good value. Popyrin has beaten two decent clay courters now in Hanfmann and Andujar. Pouille's win against Pella seems much less impressive since Pella has been struggling ever since he had COVID. Pouille also lost to Berankis on clay last week, and his level doesn't seem very high at the moment. Thoughts?

Medvedev tested positive to COVID and yesterday he had a practice with Nadal.

Carlos Alcaraz to beat Jamue Munar at 1.53 with Bet365
Youngster Alcaraz is flying. He was so good against Casper Ruud. He has a very mature game for his age. His serves were very effective. I dont like Munar's serves. Alcaraz should beat Munar easily.

Carlos Alcaraz to beat Jamue Munar at 1.53 with Bet365
Youngster Alcaraz is flying. He was so good against Casper Ruud. He has a very mature game for his age. His serves were very effective. I dont like Munar's serves. Alcaraz should beat Munar easily.