marzipan

After what Pablo Cuevas surprisingly saw himself do to Opelka, there has to be a sense that the young Cazaux is walking into a death trap. Cuevas is a very good player when on song, and one does not need a soothsayer to tell you that Cuevas looks very game here. I thought the first part of your write-up was on point till you got distracted by giving Cazaux the vote borne of a feeling. Really?? lol. Cuevas to with match @1/2 is good value

Somewhere around the corner Pablo is gonna start turning his fortunes around and he usually does that in smaller tournaments like this one. I'm not convinced Cazaux has what it takes to consistently outrally the former top 30 veteran claygrinder who thrives on the red stuff. The youngsters results before Madrid doesn't really impress either. Like losing the final in a clayfutures tourney to 23 year old german Erler. But still it's about time this veteran starts dropping in the ranks and for Cazaux I can understand his loss to Erler who isn't a bad player anyway and the final was played in Germany in April.
I'm feeling Cazaux might have the edge after all. The loss in the final in April is a long time ago for an 18 year old talent progressing forward rapidly so he probably has improved since then.

Cazaux to beat Pablo Cuevas at 2.83 with Pinnacle
Cuevas hasn't been playing well this year. In Munich he was destroyed by Ruud (6-3, 6-2) after beating Sandgren in a 3 set match. After that, he lost against Nishioka (6-4, 6-4) in Madrid and then he lost against Norrie (6-1, 6-3) in Rome. He has beat Jakub Paul, Giustino and Opelka in his 3 matches here. The match he won against Opelka did not impress me at all cause Opelka came here after reaching the SFs in Rome. Besides, Opelka lost the first set in a tight TB and then he lost easily the second one, which is understandable after his long run in Rome. What makes me think that he is gonna lose this match besides his poor form is the fact that he could have lost his first match here against another young promise, Jakub Paul (6-3, 4-6, 6-3). Cazaux has won his first match here against Mannarino (6-3, 6-7, 6-3). He beat Korda in straight sets in Madrid and then he lost in 2 tight sets against Popyrin (7-5, 7-6). I have seen Cuevas in some of his previous tournaments and I got the feeling that anybody can beat him, so why not a young promise who has beat 2 top 60 players in the last 2 weeks...?

Paire is a real nutcase. Looks like he leaves his brains in his racket bag before his comes on court. Schoolboy player!!!

Random thought (from watching yet another Camile Giorgi match): Could Camile potentially be / have been a top 15-20 player if she didn't have her weird, bonkers dad as coach (for her entire career), and instead had a proper coach who actually fixed her many leaks instead of shouting at umpires and throwing tantrums?

Di Giuseppe (+5.5 Games) to beat Qiang Wang at 1.74 with Pinnacle
Di Giuseppe to beat Qiang Wang at 4.1 with Pinnacle
I go against Wang again. Wang is in a bad shape right now (5-11). She has lost a lot of matches that she should have won. Besides, she has a very negative record on this surface (25-27). She has played 5 matches on clay this year and she only has won 2. She beat Gasanova in Istanbul in a 3 set match. After that, she has lost in straight sets against Konjuh, Muchova and Anisimova, which is totally understandable. In her first match here she has won in a 3 set match against Doi, who has a very negative record on this surface. Di Giuseppe is 30 years old and her best ranking ever is 149, but she's a pure clay court player with more than 500 matches played on this surface. She has beat Kawa, Bronzetti and Hibino here and she was priced at similar odds on all those matches.

I know him and I have seen him. The reason why the odds have moved it's pretty much simple. He won the FO boys edition the last year which means he has a lot of potential. On the other side we have Cilic, a player who has been a mess for the last 2 years. I was expecting these odds movements but I also think Cilic is gonna win this. He has played decently in Estoril and Rome. He beat Alcaraz in Estoril and Alcaraz is much better player than Stricker right now. Cilic is GS champion and he will play the best he can to avoid the shame of being beat by a 18 years old guy as he did when he played against Alcaraz. That being said, I wouldn't put my money on Cilic at those odds, that's for sure.

I'm not sure that Stricker has what it takes to beat Cilic, but I can add that I saw Stricker twice in his run in Lugano and he was outplaying better-ranked opponents with ease (I saw him against Sugita and Sachko). A real talent I'd say. Obviously that means he can be a bit hit-or-miss, but he definitely has the game to beat Cilic if the Croat underperforms as he's used to doing now. Basically, my take on the match is that you take Stricker in some capacity or stay away.

Cilic Vs Stricker
Cilic is not in any kind of real form but classwise should be able to beat Stricker easily which really should be the default reasoning here - that is if you are too blind to notice the other hidden factors.. Cilic 4/3 on clay this year and Stricker 0/1. The question is who is this Stricker? Do not expect me to have an answer for you as I have only seen as much as you have probably seen about him. However there are some very import things that stand out about this match that I just cannot overlook. Stricker is only 18 and has a very impressive hard court record under him. He has only played the one match on clay yet the tournament organizers have deemed it fit to slot this match into the prime time slot. Most times they do this for reason. (Saving the best for last)This boy must have some real potential especially with the way the odds have moved in the last 2 days. Verdict: Stricker to win a set @ evens . Sprinkling a few euros on Stricker to win 3/1 is also strongly advised. Good luck!!!

Giulia Gatto-Monticone (+1.5 sets) to beat Ludmilla Samsonova at 2.28 with Pinnacle
Decent value here I reckon, Gatto-Monticone has troubled Samsonova in the past and Samsonova didn't even beat a weaker opponent in the qualifying. That, obviously, could've been because she was essentially guaranteed a spot in the main draw, but anyway. Gatto-Monticone also has the home conditions on her side, I think even backing her outright is worth it for the more ambitious of souls.

Right, we have the few final tournaments before the big one. Good luck, guys!
Adrian Mannarino to beat Arthur Cazaux at 1.83 with Pinnacle
I saw a bit of Cazaux in the qualifiers he played against Korda and Popyrin and I think he's overvalued here. He does have a decent future ahead, but he hasn't beaten that many players of Mannarino's level yet and Mannarino looked decent against Dellien. In a year or two, Cazaux will be 1.30 in this match-up, but I like Mannarino at 1.83 this year.

Swiatek to beat Gauff at 1.44 with bet365 
I doubt Iga will have any problems with Gauff. Probably a straight set win, but I'm just gonna go with Iga winning the match. 

I'm leaning Stefanos too. But this also Novak's favourite clay tournament, has won it 5 times. Even if he is focussing on slams, he is not one to just roll over in every tournament. He is defending 1000 points here, and would like a deep run. He has also looked good and motivated in the first two rounds. But again, totally agree that this is best version of stefanos on clay that he'll be facing.  That's what makes this difficult to predict for me. Agree that slight value is on the Tsits.

very difficult to predict what happens here, i think. i'll just buy popcorn and watch

IMO I see a clear win from Novak. 7-5/6-4

Juan Manuel Cerundolo to beat Botic Van De Zandschulp at 1.71 with Pinnacle
Cerundolo is flying under the radar even despite winning the big event in Cordoba, but he's making strides on the Challenger circuit and he's doing very well on European clay. No surprises there, his playing style works best on slower clay and he's already beaten a better player than Van De Zandschulp here in Coria. I expected something like 1.57, so I'm more than happy to take the 1.71 that's on offer.

Marton Fucsovics (+1.5 sets) to beat Dominic Thiem at 2.09 with Pinnacle
As much as I like Thiem, I have to oppose him here in some capacity. Something looked wrong with him in his match against Zverev, not sure if it was physical or mental, but he didn't look good out there. Fucsovics has been on a rise lately and has an easy match under his belt here already, so he should have the initiative going into this one. He also has a lot of belief after some big wins in 2021. At odds against, I have to pick him to take a set.

Schwartzman to beat FAA at 1.57 with Pinnacle
Karatsev to beat Medvedev at 1.84 with Pinnacle
Goffin to beat Delbonis at 1.70 with Pinnacle
I know Schwartzman hasn't been playing well recently and I even backed Karatsev against him in Madrid but I expect him to do well here. The conditions here are much better for him. He reached the Final in 2020 and he even beat Nadal in straight sets. FAA has good results on clay but Schwartzman is better player on this surface. FAA has played a tough match against Krajinovic (6-3, 6-7, 6-4) in his first round here. I also take Karatsev cause Medvedev played worse than I expected in Madrid and the conditions here are worse for him so I don't expect him to do well here. Finally, I also take Goffin (vs Delbonis). I know Delbonis has been playing well recently but he has played too many matches. He has played 8 matches in the last 10 days and some of them have been really long matches. Goffin has won against Caruso in 2 sets in his only match played here and he will be more fresh than Delbonis.

Alex De Minaur to beat Gianluca Mager at 1.64 with Pinnacle
Mager has shown some decent tennis recently, but so has the Demon and all his losses came against strong opposition. The Rome conditions should suit him a bit more I'd reckon, though this is more a bet on the overall class of the two.

Caroline Garcia to beat Elisabetta Cocciaretto at 2.04 with Pinnacle
Oh, look, I'm going to have a stab at the WTA for once. Basically, I think the favorite is wrong here. Garcia hasn't played for a while, sure, and she's not that super talent that she was once seen as. That said, her losses so far in this season came against strong opposition and she's been generally very steady in matches she was supposed to win. Cocciaretto has gone down a bit, on the other hand, and she's recorded defeats against the very average Sanders and Dulgheru. The win over Babos was decent, but Babos is having problems of her own.

Casper Ruud (-1.5 sets) to beat Alexander Bublik at 1.80 with bet365
Ruud was very good in his last three matches. Good serves and good shots in the rallies. His game gives confidence. I think Bublik was lucky. His opponents were not in their day. Ruud is more complete player than Bublik. Bublik will try to win this match with his aces but this is not enough. I am expecting very good play again from Ruud and dont think Bublic can get one set here.

Daniil Medvedev to beat Christian Garin at 1.83 with Pinnacle
I'll take a repeat, it's almost the same thing, honestly. Garin is somewhat better than Fokina, but his losses against Norrie and Nishikori make one wonder why he's only a small underdog against the world's number three that recovered well against Fokina today.

Nishikori to beat Alexander Zverev at 2.62 with bet365
I will go against Zverev again. Zverev has won here before (2018) but he hasn't played well in his first two clay tournaments. He lost in his second match in Montecarlo against Goffin in 2 sets and then he lost in his second match in Munich against Ivashka. Nishikori beat Garin and took a set from Rafa in Barcelona. He has beat Kachanov in 3 sets in his first match here. I don't like to bet on Nishikori because of his physical problems but I think he's overpriced here.

Daniil Medvedev to beat Alejandro Davidovich Fokina at 1.88 with Pinnacle
Of course, Medvedev hasn't played for a while now, but he's still leagues above Fokina in most regards. We're getting a premium price just because he's coming back and, like in Struff-Popyrin, I'll take the premium and hope for a better result. Fokina has improved this year, but I don't think he's improved enough to be almost 50/50 against the current world's number three.

Aryna Sabalenka (-1.5 Sets) to beat Jessica Pegula at 1.709 with Pinnacle
Sabalenka finds her best game in this surface. She is very aggressive and attacking in the most of the rallies. Yes Pegula is one of good players of 2021 but she did not proof her game in Clay surface yet.
 
In the previous meeting of those two players finished in two sets. Sabalenka has dominated that match. I expect same result from Belarusian. I think also Sabalenka can be champion here.
 
Good luck everyone