Tennis Tips - May 3 - May 9

[CzechPunter]

[CzechPunter]

So, Madrid continues for both men and women. Good luck everyone!

Fabio Fognini to beat Carlos Taberner at 1.74 with Pinnacle

I will risk Fognini yet again, hopefully with the same positive result. He was disqualified last time out, but he should care about such a big tournament as this one. He can play better than Taberner, who must be a bit tired after playing a physically tiring match against Thompson and then a mentally taxing one against the talented Italian youngster. I'd have Fognini closer to 1.57 here myself.

[Foo_Fighter]

Iga Swiatek to beat Ashleigh Barty at 2.1 with bet365 

Swiatek at 2.1 on clay?!? She's facing Barty but she should have been the favorite imo. I think Iga has already proved that she's elite. I like her attitude as well. She should win this. 

 

[lelit]

Swiatek showed in the last matches against Alexandrova, Konjuh and Muguruza that her level is far from FO's level. She lacks tactical skills when playing against equally aggressive players. In her last game against poorly serving Siegmund she had 10 unused match balls in  the last game.

I'm a fan of Swiatek but I don't think she's actually playing well.

Edited May 2, 2021 by lelit

[darko08]

Karatsev (2-0) to beat Humbert at 1.80 with bet365

Humbert has a negative record on clay (27-29). He never has done something remarkable on this surface. Karatsev did really well in Belgrade. He beat Bedene, Mager and Djokovic. He lost the Final against Berrettini but it was a close match (1-6, 6-3, 7-6). The conditions are similar here so I think Karatsev can do really well in Madrid.

[darko08]

Who will go further: Karatsev vs Schwartzman - Karatsev at 1.72 with bet365

I add this one. They will meet in the second round if Karatsev wins against Humbert. I'm not impressed at all with how Diego has played recently. He won in Buenos Aires but the players he beat there were weak. After that he lost against Ruud in straight sets in in Montecarlo and then he wasted a 5-2 lead in the third set against Carreño in Barcelona. Karatsev already destroyed him in the AO and I'm sure he will be eager to take revenge on that but I just see Karatsev better than him.

[Life Is Windy]

1 hour ago, darko08 said:

Karatsev (2-0) to beat Humbert at 1.80 with bet365

Humbert has a negative record on clay (27-29). He never has done something remarkable on this surface. Karatsev did really well in Belgrade. He beat Bedene, Mager and Djokovic. He lost the Final against Berrettini but it was a close match (1-6, 6-3, 7-6). The conditions are similar here so I think Karatsev can do really well in Madrid.

Conditions are similar? How's that?! Totally different realm. From ball bouncing to altitude, clay is faster...

[mark22]

2 hours ago, darko08 said:

Karatsev (2-0) to beat Humbert at 1.80 with bet365

Humbert has a negative record on clay (27-29). He never has done something remarkable on this surface. Karatsev did really well in Belgrade. He beat Bedene, Mager and Djokovic. He lost the Final against Berrettini but it was a close match (1-6, 6-3, 7-6). The conditions are similar here so I think Karatsev can do really well in Madrid.

Humbert did pretty well in Estroil if you look he is mostly hard court player, I watched him against Cecchinato.. He has strong serve and strokes, like @Life Is Windy said, surface in Madrid is much faster because of altitude (660m). So I´m aiming for some overs this week in Madrid :)

[darko08]

26 minutes ago, Life Is Windy said:

Conditions are similar? How's that?! Totally different realm. From ball bouncing to altitude, clay is faster...

Both have the same court pace rating. In Madrid the ball even goes slightly faster due to the conditions so that's even better for Karatsev. Are u happy now? 

[AgaRadwanska]

15 hours ago, Foo_Fighter said:

Iga Swiatek to beat Ashleigh Barty at 2.1 with bet365 

Swiatek at 2.1 on clay?!? She's facing Barty but she should have been the favorite imo. I think Iga has already proved that she's elite. I like her attitude as well. She should win this. 

 

This is what I've gone with. Wasn't overly impressed with Barty in her match vs. Zidansek

[CzechPunter]

Jan-Lennard Struff to beat Alexei Popyrin at 2.06 with Pinnacle

It's always tricky to bet on players that need to travel quickly after finishing finals in the previous week, but the gap in class is decent enough here imo. Popyrin has made it through the qualifiers, but he could've easily lost against Coria and he wasn't too convincing against Cazaux either. Struff had a high level last week in Munich and I think he can get another win here. If he didn't have to travel at short notice, he would be way shorter here and I'm willing to take the risk at these odds.

[marzipan]

Aryna Sabalenka (-1.5 Sets) to beat Jessica Pegula at 1.709 with Pinnacle

Sabalenka finds her best game in this surface. She is very aggressive and attacking in the most of the rallies. Yes Pegula is one of good players of 2021 but she did not proof her game in Clay surface yet.

 

In the previous meeting of those two players finished in two sets. Sabalenka has dominated that match. I expect same result from Belarusian. I think also Sabalenka can be champion here.

 

Good luck everyone

Edited May 4, 2021 by marzipan

[CzechPunter]

Daniil Medvedev to beat Alejandro Davidovich Fokina at 1.88 with Pinnacle

Of course, Medvedev hasn't played for a while now, but he's still leagues above Fokina in most regards. We're getting a premium price just because he's coming back and, like in Struff-Popyrin, I'll take the premium and hope for a better result. Fokina has improved this year, but I don't think he's improved enough to be almost 50/50 against the current world's number three.

[AgaRadwanska]

Basilashvili coming past Monteiro, Galan, Gombos, Ruud and Struff - all straight sets - in Munich, but falling to Paire in the first round of Madrid is going to be so tilting if it happens. Which it probably will. 

[darko08]

Nishikori to beat Alexander Zverev at 2.62 with bet365

I will go against Zverev again. Zverev has won here before (2018) but he hasn't played well in his first two clay tournaments. He lost in his second match in Montecarlo against Goffin in 2 sets and then he lost in his second match in Munich against Ivashka. Nishikori beat Garin and took a set from Rafa in Barcelona. He has beat Kachanov in 3 sets in his first match here. I don't like to bet on Nishikori because of his physical problems but I think he's overpriced here.

[DrO]

 

[CzechPunter]

He got the job done though! ?

[DrO]

[WinningTipster]

 

2 picks for the ATP Madrid:
THIEM - DE MINAUR 2:0 sets @ 1.79 at pinnacle 
RUUD- NISHIOKA 2:0 sets @ 1.42 at pinnacle

For both De Minaur and Nishioka clay is probably their worst surface. Playing against top clay court specialists they don't have any real chances in my opinion. 

[CzechPunter]

Daniil Medvedev to beat Christian Garin at 1.83 with Pinnacle

I'll take a repeat, it's almost the same thing, honestly. Garin is somewhat better than Fokina, but his losses against Norrie and Nishikori make one wonder why he's only a small underdog against the world's number three that recovered well against Fokina today.

[Life Is Windy]

On 5/3/2021 at 9:31 AM, darko08 said:

Both have the same court pace rating. In Madrid the ball even goes slightly faster due to the conditions so that's even better for Karatsev. Are u happy now? 

It's o.k. I just said something that guys should know. Madrid is nowhere close to any clay court. And in these few days since I said that almost every server went through.

Today Isner, Sinner payed price...

Cheers.

[Life Is Windy]

4 hours ago, CzechPunter said:

Daniil Medvedev to beat Christian Garin at 1.83 with Pinnacle

I'll take a repeat, it's almost the same thing, honestly. Garin is somewhat better than Fokina, but his losses against Norrie and Nishikori make one wonder why he's only a small underdog against the world's number three that recovered well against Fokina today.

Good pick if consider conditions and odds.

Risky if you consider Danil had c19, and most people can't catch a breath for a while after that.

NBA player Jason Tatum was so tired for many games after c19.

Cheers.

[darko08]

2 hours ago, Life Is Windy said:

It's o.k. I just said something that guys should know. Madrid is nowhere close to any clay court. And in these few days since I said that almost every server went through.

Today Isner, Sinner payed price...

Cheers.

All the regular punters in this thread know very well the conditions of the Mutua Open. I never have seen you here before but I have seen in your profile that you bet mostly on soccer, basketball,... probably you have started to bet also on tennis recently (unless you spend all your whole days watching sports...) and you have read some article about the Mutua Open. I repeat, we all know the conditions of this tournament, we don't need you to tell us things that we already know (by the way, I have been there before more than one time). We also know that Medvedev tested positive in Montecarlo (a punter posted a notice about that if I'm not wrong). Anyways, nice to see you here commenting every single prediction. I'm eager to see your own predictions. 

Edited May 5, 2021 by darko08

[Life Is Windy]

23 minutes ago, darko08 said:

All the regular punters in this thread know very well the conditions of the Mutua Open. I never have seen you here before but I have seen in your profile that you bet mostly on soccer, basketball,... probably you have started to bet also on tennis recently (unless you spend all your whole days watching sports...) and you have read some article about the Mutua Open. I repeat, we all know the conditions of this tournament, we don't need you to tell us things that we already know (by the way, I have been there before more than one time). We also know that Medvedev tested positive in Montecarlo (a punter posted a notice about that if I'm not wrong). Anyways, nice to see you here commenting every single prediction. I'm eager to see your own predictions. 

Heh. I am professional bettor. That's something that puts bread on my table...

I bet for 23 years. And also I am former athlete. I Play tennis once a week. Play basket...

I rarely bet tennis prematch because bad margins there. But when I do that I am pretty much successful. I just checked my last 12 picks.

10 won. Average odds 2.30. Smallest 1.50. Highest 4.00.

Cheers.

p.s. You have link in my description. That's how I bet tennis. So when I do it, I do it all day long. Futures, challengers, masters...

[darko08]

Looks like you are promoting yourself ?  As I said, I would love to see some of your future tennis predictions in this thread. GL.

[CzechPunter]

Maxime Cressy (+1.5 sets) to beat Oscar Otte at 1.90 with Sbobet

Otte has improved big time in this event, but I'm not sure he's a good pick whenever he's a big favorite. He's still an average player that can bomb out whenever something goes against him and Cressy is a man that makes things happen. His style shouldn't work on clay, it's just too easy to play around it, but that applies only to top players. I saw Cressy put Ymer in all sorts of bad spots last week in Ostrava and Otte is not as flexible as the Swede. At 1.90, I just can't but back Cressy to get a set here.

[Life Is Windy]

17 hours ago, darko08 said:

Looks like you are promoting yourself ?  As I said, I would love to see some of your future tennis predictions in this thread. GL.

Not a problem.

Daniel Evans to win set. 2.10.

And for brave ones, Daniel Evans to win match @4.00

I am picking this because conditions in Madrid are similar to conditions in Belgrade.

Cheers.

[CzechPunter]

Let's not get personal here, guys. Picks and tennis only! 

[darko08]

@CzechPunterHave you lost your mind? You delete my post warning about what this "professional bettor" has done in this forum since he joined and then you "like" a bet of him where he is fooling the people? 

2 hours ago, Life Is Windy said:

I am picking this because conditions in Madrid are similar to conditions in Belgrade.

Do you think this is a reason to back Evans against Zverev...?

Enjoy this guy's predictions, if he has the same success he had in the soccer/basketball threads you will get a lot of profits following his bets. 

[CzechPunter]

Yes, I like that he's finally posted a bet, so that we're now all on the same footing.