The Brigadier

A feast of top class action awaits us this afternoon with ITV showing ten races from four meetings. We have five from Haydock (good to firm ground), two from Goodwood (good), two from York (good to firm) plus the Irish 2000 Guineas from The Curragh (good). Here are my best racing tips to beat the bookies.   Haydock 13:15 Sorry did I say top class action? We kick off today with a class 5 0-75 handicap that looks totally out of place amongst the feast of superb action to come. Mind you a winners a winner and in the top weight Auld Toon Loon we have a worthy bet. Trained in Yorkshire by David O’Meara, who’s had a quiet start to the season so far although was in the winners enclosure with Trueman earlier in the week at Carlisle, he was well supported on his handicap debut at Wetherby 11 days ago when going down by half a length to Arch Moon in a slightly better grade handicap than todays. He has been shunted up 3lb for that run and is stepping up 2F to a mile and a half for the first time. This trip should suit and despite having to give weight away to his six rivals should be up to that as his opponents look either out of form or very modest.   AULD TOON LOON 2 points win @ 13/8 bet365   Goodwood 13:30 Just the seven assemble for this listed William Hill Festival Stakes run over 1M 2F. Joint best in at today’s weights are Roger Varian’s El Drama and John and Thady Gosden’s Francesco Clemente. Preference has to be for the latter who is still unbeaten in three starts as a three year old last season starting off with a comprehensive victory in the Wood Ditton and culminating with a ten length win in a handicap on the July course at the same racecourse in July. Not seen since but holding several top entries for the Summer and beyond including the Princess Of Wales, Hardwicke Stakes, Eclipse and Prix Arc de L’Triomphe he could be anything and with Rab Havlin in the saddle he’s taken to score on his re-appearance. Charlie Appleby’s King Of Conquest is chasing a hat trick having won handicaps in Bahrain and at Newmarket and rates as the biggest threat to the selection.   FRANCESCO CLEMENTE 1 point win @ 7/4 BetVictor   Haydock 13:50 Seven go to post for this 2M class 2 0-100 handicap. Reshoun heads the weights for Patrick Morris and although he’s back on a winning mark he’s nine years old now and may not be as good as he once was. His former trainer Ian William’s Law Of The Sea appeals as the most likely winner here having looked an unlucky loser in the Chester Cup last time out when coming home in fourth place only beaten just under two lengths. He was denied a clear run inside the last couple of furlongs when trapped on the rail under Franny Norton and is only a pound higher with William Buick booked to ride. The ground was soft that day and will be very different today but he’s shown as least as good form on fast ground throughout his career (5th, beaten 4L, in the 2021 Queens Vase at Ascot on good to firm) and is the selection here. Ralph Beckett’s Carzola is chasing a four timer but those three wins have come on the all-weather and soft turf ground so has to answer questions here on fast ground conditions. David Simcock’s Mountain Road is chasing a hat trick but we haven’t seen him on a racecourse for just under 200 days whilst Tony Martin brings Firstman over from his base in County Meath and has gone 127 days since his last flat win. Law Of The Sea is a confident selection to give William Buick yet another winner.   LAW OF THE SEA 2 points win @ 3/1 BetFred   Goodwood 14:05 An intriguing three year olds only 7F handicap where as always at Goodwood when racing around the bend the draw is very important with those drawn on or near the rails (low numbers) significantly better off. William Haggas’s Tafreej has to be in the shortlist from stall 2 having run well enough at Newbury last month whilst John & Thady Gosden’s Bresson is one to watch closely in the market on his handicap debut from stall 5. Yacowlef has been raised 6lb for his victory at Newmarket from Striking Star (runner up again since) and can run well for the father and son team of Paul and Oliver Cole who will no doubt be in attendance at The Curragh for the Irish 2000 Guineas today with their Guineas third Royal Scotsman. One horse who I feel is well handicapped is Tom Clover’s Seeking Gold. He bumped into Chaldean on his racecourse debut at Newbury last July prior to winning at Yarmouth the following month. He wasn’t disgraced in listed company on his next start whilst his final start in Group 2 company in France can be overlooked on account of the soft ground. He’s drawn stall one and can run very well although I would have liked to seen his trainer in better form having gone 40 days and 25 runs since his last winner but he has had a few hit the frame in the last fortnight including Rogue Millennium going down by half a length in the Group 2 Middleton Stakes at York. I’ll take a chance on him at the prices.   SEEKING GOLD 1 point each way @ 11/1 William Hill 1/5th 1234   Haydock 14:25 The Betfred Silver Bowl is a class 2 1M three year olds only handicap that usually produces a nice winner and is always worth following. John and Thady Gosden’s Covey heads the market on the back of impressive victories at Newmarket and Newcastle. This will be his first step into handicap company and a mark of 90 looks workable when you consider the connections we’re considering the Irish 2000 Guineas for him. Frankie Dettori gets the leg up and he’s my main selection. There are several other promising types in opposition including Peter Chapple-Hyam’s Defence Of Fort who’s always been highly thought of and makes his handicap debut also although we haven’t seen him for 211 days which is a bit of a concern. The fast ground is of concern for the Ed Bethell trained James McHenry whose two handicap victories this season (including over course and distance) have come with give in the ground. Top weight Killybegs Warrior starts out in handicaps off of a lofty mark of 102 but he’s kept some smart company so far in his career including when 6th, beaten 5 1/4L in the Dante Stakes over 10 1/2F at York recently. A drop back to a mile will suit and can run a nice race. Bottom weight Just Bring It is the other one I want on my side as he appeared to improve for a sounder surface when runner up in a Newmarket handicap a week ago when getting run down late on by Chelsea Green. Off of only a one pound higher mark he looks overpriced for a trainer Clive Cox who knows how to win this having won it twice in the last four years.   COVEY 2 points win @ 11/4 William Hill JUST BRING IT 1 point each way @ 14/1 1/5th 1234   York 14:40 A typical 5F sprint handicap for horses rated 0-105 for which fourteen have declared. The 5F handicap run at last week’s Dante meeting is the key piece of form here with Korker finishing runner up from Bedford Flyer in 3rd and Mondammej back in 4th and Alligator Alley, and Copper Knight further behind. Korker started slowly that day (as he has done before) and flashed home to be beaten 1/2L by Regional. With a cleaner break at the gate he can confirm that form and take this sprint handicap. Ruth Carr’s bottom weight Reigning Profit has been in good form of late but may prefer more ease in the ground whilst Nigel Tinkler’s Squealer is an interesting runner as despite a plum draw at Chester last time he patently failed to handle the soft ground and back on a sounder surface could run better. A tough race which has a ‘who’s turn is it today’ feel about it but if Karl Burke’s top weight Korker can start on terms with his rivals he could be the one to take this.   KORKER 1 point win @ 10/3 William Hill   Haydock 15:00 A cracker of a sprint is up next with the Group 2 6F Sandy Lane Stakes for three year olds only, a stepping stone to the Group 1 Commonwealth Cup at Royal Ascot next month with all eight competitors holding that entry. The stand out horse is Aiden O’Brien’s top juvenile from last season Little Big Bear who was impressive when routing his field in the Phoenix Stakes at The Curragh coming home 7L to the good. It all went wrong for him in the 2000 Guineas when upped in trip as he pulled too hard and clipping heels early on, finished lame. Dropped back to sprint trips he has to be given another chance but has been well found in the market. Frankie Dettori takes the ride with Ryan Moore on duty in Ireland. Kevin Ryan’s Cold Case is a progressive sort who kept on well to win the group 3 Commonwealth Cup Trial at Ascot with today’s rival Bradsell 1 1/2L back in third. That was Bradsell’s first run since a bad injury in the Phoenix Stakes last season and he looked all over the winner until presumably blowing up inside the final furlong. It wouldn’t surprise me if Archie Watson’s likeable three year old turns the tables on Cold Case and he’s the selection here. Matilda Picotte, trained in Ireland by Kieran Cotter, ran third in the 1000 Guineas and is, like the favourite here, dropping in trip. She does though have 20lb to find with Little Big Bear. A fascinating race with Royal Ascot’s Commonwealth Cup on the horizon and I’ll take a chance with Bradsell to shock Little Big Bear under Hollie Doyle.   BRADSELL 1 point win @ 7/2 bet365   York 15:15 Nine fillies and mares aged four year olds and older line up for the Group 3 William Hill Brontë Cup Fillies Stakes for which we have a very warm favourite in the John and Thady Gosden trained four year old Mimikyu who has to shoulder a 5lb penalty for her Group 2 Park Hill Stakes win at Doncaster last September. That’s easily the best form on offer here and she will be hard to beat under Kieran O’Neill although she’s never actually raced on ground as fast as it will be this afternoon. On official ratings, even with her penalty, she’s 10lb ahead of her opponents and it’s hard to find one to trouble her here. Ralph Beckett’s River Of Stars was over 12L behind the favourite when last seen and there’s no reason to believe she can turn the tables so a bigger threat may well be the William Haggas improver Sea Flawless although this is a big step up in grade for her and is officially 20lb behind behind Mimikyu who’s been working with the stable’s Oaks fancy Soul Sister on the Newmarket gallops and has to be the pick.   MIMIKYU 1 point win @ 5/4 William Hill   Haydock 15:30 Fourteen speedsters line up for the Group 2 5F Betfred Temple Stakes. It has quite an open look about it this year with the front four in the market looking to dominate. James Tate’s Royal Aclaim was a highly promising sprinter last season who was very impressive at York’s Ebor meeting winning the listed City Of Walls Stakes in a canter and wasn’t disgraced on two subsequent efforts in higher grade. The two three year olds both hold decent chances with The Platinum Queen having a terrific first season culminating in winning the Prix de L’Abbaye at Longchamp against her elders. Owned then by Middleham Park Racing she was subsequently sold to Katsumi Yoshida for a staggering £1.2 million and transferred from Richard Fahey to Roger Varian and has to shoulder a 5lb penalty today. Dramatised also had an excellent first term winning the Queen Mary at Royal Ascot and ending her season finishing runner up in the breeders Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint with The Platinum Queen well behind. William Buick is booked and she looks the pick today although I do fear last season’s runner up Twilight Calls who loves the ground this fast and can be excused his re-appearance defeat on the grounds of the soft conditions that prevailed that day. Any one of the front four could take this but I’m with Dramatised for the in form Karl Burke stable.   DRAMATISED 1 point each way @ 5/1 bet365   The Curragh 15:40 The Tattersalls Irish 2000 Guineas feature eleven three year old colts including the second and third from the English 2000 Guineas three weeks ago. Aiden O’Brien saddles three runners in a race that he’s won a staggering eleven times in the past. Ryan Moore presumably has had the pick and is on the progressive Paddington who was pushed out to win a listed race over course and distance last time following a handicap victory at Naas. Both of those wins were gained on soft ground and on different ground and upped in trip is quite easily passed over. You do feel if he wasn’t the O’Brien number one he would a much bigger price than his current price of around 4/1. O’Brien also sends out Cairo and Age Of Kings here but neither appeal. The race that should produce the winner today is the English 2000 Guineas from three weeks ago when Kevin Ryan’s Hi Royal, who went off at 125/1, had Paul & Oliver Cole’s Royal Scotsman half a length behind when runner up to Chaldean. That doesn’t tell half the story mind as the latter was lit up by clipping heels early on, running with the choke out and on the wrong side of where the winner and runner up came from. Royal Scotsman has decent two year old form on fast ground as a two year old and the younger half of the training duo sounded very confident earlier in the week talking up his chances. Jamie Spencer is not my favourite jockey but he’s capable and won this race for Charlie Hills back in 2019 and takes the reins today. He’s a confident selection.   ROYAL SCOTSMAN 2 points win @ 2/1 bet365   All odds were accurate at time of writing.  

240 york 
Korker   8.6  7/2 
Zarzyni   8.3 20/1 
Chipstead    8.1 10/1 
Tricky race ....korker looks a strong bet to run well here .....zarzyni looks way overpriced and Chipstead isn't far off either ....decent prices about ....
10pt win korker ...5pt ew zarzyni ....forcasts top 3 

A feast of top class action awaits us this afternoon with ITV showing ten races from four meetings. We have five from Haydock (good to firm ground), two from Goodwood (good), two from York (good to firm) plus the Irish 2000 Guineas from The Curragh (good). Here are my best racing tips to beat the bookies.   Haydock 13:15 Sorry did I say top class action? We kick off today with a class 5 0-75 handicap that looks totally out of place amongst the feast of superb action to come. Mind you a winners a winner and in the top weight Auld Toon Loon we have a worthy bet. Trained in Yorkshire by David O’Meara, who’s had a quiet start to the season so far although was in the winners enclosure with Trueman earlier in the week at Carlisle, he was well supported on his handicap debut at Wetherby 11 days ago when going down by half a length to Arch Moon in a slightly better grade handicap than todays. He has been shunted up 3lb for that run and is stepping up 2F to a mile and a half for the first time. This trip should suit and despite having to give weight away to his six rivals should be up to that as his opponents look either out of form or very modest.   AULD TOON LOON 2 points win @ 13/8 bet365   Goodwood 13:30 Just the seven assemble for this listed William Hill Festival Stakes run over 1M 2F. Joint best in at today’s weights are Roger Varian’s El Drama and John and Thady Gosden’s Francesco Clemente. Preference has to be for the latter who is still unbeaten in three starts as a three year old last season starting off with a comprehensive victory in the Wood Ditton and culminating with a ten length win in a handicap on the July course at the same racecourse in July. Not seen since but holding several top entries for the Summer and beyond including the Princess Of Wales, Hardwicke Stakes, Eclipse and Prix Arc de L’Triomphe he could be anything and with Rab Havlin in the saddle he’s taken to score on his re-appearance. Charlie Appleby’s King Of Conquest is chasing a hat trick having won handicaps in Bahrain and at Newmarket and rates as the biggest threat to the selection.   FRANCESCO CLEMENTE 1 point win @ 7/4 BetVictor   Haydock 13:50 Seven go to post for this 2M class 2 0-100 handicap. Reshoun heads the weights for Patrick Morris and although he’s back on a winning mark he’s nine years old now and may not be as good as he once was. His former trainer Ian William’s Law Of The Sea appeals as the most likely winner here having looked an unlucky loser in the Chester Cup last time out when coming home in fourth place only beaten just under two lengths. He was denied a clear run inside the last couple of furlongs when trapped on the rail under Franny Norton and is only a pound higher with William Buick booked to ride. The ground was soft that day and will be very different today but he’s shown as least as good form on fast ground throughout his career (5th, beaten 4L, in the 2021 Queens Vase at Ascot on good to firm) and is the selection here. Ralph Beckett’s Carzola is chasing a four timer but those three wins have come on the all-weather and soft turf ground so has to answer questions here on fast ground conditions. David Simcock’s Mountain Road is chasing a hat trick but we haven’t seen him on a racecourse for just under 200 days whilst Tony Martin brings Firstman over from his base in County Meath and has gone 127 days since his last flat win. Law Of The Sea is a confident selection to give William Buick yet another winner.   LAW OF THE SEA 2 points win @ 3/1 BetFred   Goodwood 14:05 An intriguing three year olds only 7F handicap where as always at Goodwood when racing around the bend the draw is very important with those drawn on or near the rails (low numbers) significantly better off. William Haggas’s Tafreej has to be in the shortlist from stall 2 having run well enough at Newbury last month whilst John & Thady Gosden’s Bresson is one to watch closely in the market on his handicap debut from stall 5. Yacowlef has been raised 6lb for his victory at Newmarket from Striking Star (runner up again since) and can run well for the father and son team of Paul and Oliver Cole who will no doubt be in attendance at The Curragh for the Irish 2000 Guineas today with their Guineas third Royal Scotsman. One horse who I feel is well handicapped is Tom Clover’s Seeking Gold. He bumped into Chaldean on his racecourse debut at Newbury last July prior to winning at Yarmouth the following month. He wasn’t disgraced in listed company on his next start whilst his final start in Group 2 company in France can be overlooked on account of the soft ground. He’s drawn stall one and can run very well although I would have liked to seen his trainer in better form having gone 40 days and 25 runs since his last winner but he has had a few hit the frame in the last fortnight including Rogue Millennium going down by half a length in the Group 2 Middleton Stakes at York. I’ll take a chance on him at the prices.   SEEKING GOLD 1 point each way @ 11/1 William Hill 1/5th 1234   Haydock 14:25 The Betfred Silver Bowl is a class 2 1M three year olds only handicap that usually produces a nice winner and is always worth following. John and Thady Gosden’s Covey heads the market on the back of impressive victories at Newmarket and Newcastle. This will be his first step into handicap company and a mark of 90 looks workable when you consider the connections we’re considering the Irish 2000 Guineas for him. Frankie Dettori gets the leg up and he’s my main selection. There are several other promising types in opposition including Peter Chapple-Hyam’s Defence Of Fort who’s always been highly thought of and makes his handicap debut also although we haven’t seen him for 211 days which is a bit of a concern. The fast ground is of concern for the Ed Bethell trained James McHenry whose two handicap victories this season (including over course and distance) have come with give in the ground. Top weight Killybegs Warrior starts out in handicaps off of a lofty mark of 102 but he’s kept some smart company so far in his career including when 6th, beaten 5 1/4L in the Dante Stakes over 10 1/2F at York recently. A drop back to a mile will suit and can run a nice race. Bottom weight Just Bring It is the other one I want on my side as he appeared to improve for a sounder surface when runner up in a Newmarket handicap a week ago when getting run down late on by Chelsea Green. Off of only a one pound higher mark he looks overpriced for a trainer Clive Cox who knows how to win this having won it twice in the last four years.   COVEY 2 points win @ 11/4 William Hill JUST BRING IT 1 point each way @ 14/1 1/5th 1234   York 14:40 A typical 5F sprint handicap for horses rated 0-105 for which fourteen have declared. The 5F handicap run at last week’s Dante meeting is the key piece of form here with Korker finishing runner up from Bedford Flyer in 3rd and Mondammej back in 4th and Alligator Alley, and Copper Knight further behind. Korker started slowly that day (as he has done before) and flashed home to be beaten 1/2L by Regional. With a cleaner break at the gate he can confirm that form and take this sprint handicap. Ruth Carr’s bottom weight Reigning Profit has been in good form of late but may prefer more ease in the ground whilst Nigel Tinkler’s Squealer is an interesting runner as despite a plum draw at Chester last time he patently failed to handle the soft ground and back on a sounder surface could run better. A tough race which has a ‘who’s turn is it today’ feel about it but if Karl Burke’s top weight Korker can start on terms with his rivals he could be the one to take this.   KORKER 1 point win @ 10/3 William Hill   Haydock 15:00 A cracker of a sprint is up next with the Group 2 6F Sandy Lane Stakes for three year olds only, a stepping stone to the Group 1 Commonwealth Cup at Royal Ascot next month with all eight competitors holding that entry. The stand out horse is Aiden O’Brien’s top juvenile from last season Little Big Bear who was impressive when routing his field in the Phoenix Stakes at The Curragh coming home 7L to the good. It all went wrong for him in the 2000 Guineas when upped in trip as he pulled too hard and clipping heels early on, finished lame. Dropped back to sprint trips he has to be given another chance but has been well found in the market. Frankie Dettori takes the ride with Ryan Moore on duty in Ireland. Kevin Ryan’s Cold Case is a progressive sort who kept on well to win the group 3 Commonwealth Cup Trial at Ascot with today’s rival Bradsell 1 1/2L back in third. That was Bradsell’s first run since a bad injury in the Phoenix Stakes last season and he looked all over the winner until presumably blowing up inside the final furlong. It wouldn’t surprise me if Archie Watson’s likeable three year old turns the tables on Cold Case and he’s the selection here. Matilda Picotte, trained in Ireland by Kieran Cotter, ran third in the 1000 Guineas and is, like the favourite here, dropping in trip. She does though have 20lb to find with Little Big Bear. A fascinating race with Royal Ascot’s Commonwealth Cup on the horizon and I’ll take a chance with Bradsell to shock Little Big Bear under Hollie Doyle.   BRADSELL 1 point win @ 7/2 bet365   York 15:15 Nine fillies and mares aged four year olds and older line up for the Group 3 William Hill Brontë Cup Fillies Stakes for which we have a very warm favourite in the John and Thady Gosden trained four year old Mimikyu who has to shoulder a 5lb penalty for her Group 2 Park Hill Stakes win at Doncaster last September. That’s easily the best form on offer here and she will be hard to beat under Kieran O’Neill although she’s never actually raced on ground as fast as it will be this afternoon. On official ratings, even with her penalty, she’s 10lb ahead of her opponents and it’s hard to find one to trouble her here. Ralph Beckett’s River Of Stars was over 12L behind the favourite when last seen and there’s no reason to believe she can turn the tables so a bigger threat may well be the William Haggas improver Sea Flawless although this is a big step up in grade for her and is officially 20lb behind behind Mimikyu who’s been working with the stable’s Oaks fancy Soul Sister on the Newmarket gallops and has to be the pick.   MIMIKYU 1 point win @ 5/4 William Hill   Haydock 15:30 Fourteen speedsters line up for the Group 2 5F Betfred Temple Stakes. It has quite an open look about it this year with the front four in the market looking to dominate. James Tate’s Royal Aclaim was a highly promising sprinter last season who was very impressive at York’s Ebor meeting winning the listed City Of Walls Stakes in a canter and wasn’t disgraced on two subsequent efforts in higher grade. The two three year olds both hold decent chances with The Platinum Queen having a terrific first season culminating in winning the Prix de L’Abbaye at Longchamp against her elders. Owned then by Middleham Park Racing she was subsequently sold to Katsumi Yoshida for a staggering £1.2 million and transferred from Richard Fahey to Roger Varian and has to shoulder a 5lb penalty today. Dramatised also had an excellent first term winning the Queen Mary at Royal Ascot and ending her season finishing runner up in the breeders Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint with The Platinum Queen well behind. William Buick is booked and she looks the pick today although I do fear last season’s runner up Twilight Calls who loves the ground this fast and can be excused his re-appearance defeat on the grounds of the soft conditions that prevailed that day. Any one of the front four could take this but I’m with Dramatised for the in form Karl Burke stable.   DRAMATISED 1 point each way @ 5/1 bet365   The Curragh 15:40 The Tattersalls Irish 2000 Guineas feature eleven three year old colts including the second and third from the English 2000 Guineas three weeks ago. Aiden O’Brien saddles three runners in a race that he’s won a staggering eleven times in the past. Ryan Moore presumably has had the pick and is on the progressive Paddington who was pushed out to win a listed race over course and distance last time following a handicap victory at Naas. Both of those wins were gained on soft ground and on different ground and upped in trip is quite easily passed over. You do feel if he wasn’t the O’Brien number one he would a much bigger price than his current price of around 4/1. O’Brien also sends out Cairo and Age Of Kings here but neither appeal. The race that should produce the winner today is the English 2000 Guineas from three weeks ago when Kevin Ryan’s Hi Royal, who went off at 125/1, had Paul & Oliver Cole’s Royal Scotsman half a length behind when runner up to Chaldean. That doesn’t tell half the story mind as the latter was lit up by clipping heels early on, running with the choke out and on the wrong side of where the winner and runner up came from. Royal Scotsman has decent two year old form on fast ground as a two year old and the younger half of the training duo sounded very confident earlier in the week talking up his chances. Jamie Spencer is not my favourite jockey but he’s capable and won this race for Charlie Hills back in 2019 and takes the reins today. He’s a confident selection.   ROYAL SCOTSMAN 2 points win @ 2/1 bet365   All odds were accurate at time of writing.  

With all the main trials run I thought it would be a good time to take stock and have a fresh look at the Epsom Derby to be run over a mile and a half a week this Saturday. There are currently twenty one still entered with two declaration stages to go plus the possibility of a horse/s being supplemented at a cost of £85,000 Here’s a horse by horse analysis with an ante-post play at the end.   ADELAIDE RIVER Trainer: Aiden O’Brien One of eight O’Brien horses still left in the race. Was 6 1/2L behind Arrest in Chester Vase on his re-appearance and will need to improve considerably on that to feature. Current odds: 66/1   ALDER Trainer: Donnacha O’Brien Runner up to San Antonio in Chester’s Dee Stakes over 10F following a win at Cork in April. Stepping up in trip here may bring about some improvement but will need to. Current odds: 25/1   ARREST Trainer: John & Thady Gosden Bidding to give Frankie Dettori a winning Derby ride in his last year and has sound claims of doing so. Best run as a two year old when finishing a head runner up in Group 1 Criterium de Saint Cloud in October on heavy ground to Dubai Mike and sluiced through the mud when a very easy winner of the Chester Vase by 6 1/2L from Adelaide River. Has won on good to firm although his two best runs have come with plenty of ease in the ground so any rain will suit this Juddmonte owned Frankel colt who has a live chance. Current odds: 13/2   ARTISTIC STAR Trainer: Ralph Beckett Shown good form in winning a Nottingham maiden last October and a 10F novice stakes contest at Sandown earlier this month from Torito. A promising sort who his trainer stated after his recent victory that the Derby may come too soon and Royal Ascot is a more realistic target. Current odds: 50/1   AUGUSTE RODIN Trainer: Aiden O’Brien Arguably the best two year old from last season winning a Naas maiden, Group 2 at Leopardstown and the Group 1 Vertem Futurity Trophy Stakes at Doncaster all with give in the ground. Went off 13/8 favourite when a major flop in the 2000 Guineas, getting bumped by his stable mate Little Big Bear and trailing home in 12th (of 14) place beaten 22L. Steps up from a mile to a mile and a half here and his trainer has been talking him up since but looks poor value at his current odds on his 2000 Guineas run. Current odds: 7/2   COVENT GARDEN Trainer: Aiden O’Brien Placed third on re-appearance in 1M 5F listed race at Navan. Yet another Aiden O’Brien runner who looks more of a stayer and hard to fancy. Current odds: 100/1   DEAR MY FRIEND Trainer: Charlie Johnstone Won the Burradon Stakes on the all weather at Newcastle in April but was beaten 6 3/4L into 8th place in the Dante Stakes at 22/1 and looks highly unlikely to give rookie trainer Charlie Johnstone a Derby winner in his first year training in his own name. Current odds: 66/1   DUBAI MILE Trainer: Charlie Johnstone Smart juvenile finishing runner up to The Foxes ( beaten 1/2L) in the Royal Lodge before taking the Group 1 Criterium de Saint Cloud on heavy ground by a head from Arrest over 10F. Made a highly satisfactory re-appearance when fifth in 2000 Guineas, beaten 5 1/4L by Chaldean and the longer trip of The Derby looks highly likely to suit. Looks overpriced and looks a very interesting runner for his first season (in his name anyway) trainer. Current odds: 16/1   ESPIONAGE Trainer: Aiden O’Brien Not seen since last October when beaten a head by Proud And Regal in Group 1 Criterium International at Saint Cloud on heavy ground. Longer trip today should suit and one of the better outsiders if allowed to take his chance for Aiden O’Brien. Current odds: 40/1   GOOLOOGONG Trainer: Aiden O’Brien Naas 10F winner on heavy ground back in March by 2 1/4L from Nation’s Call ( beaten since) with the pair a long way clear of the remainder. Form doesn’t amount to much and would need a giant leap of faith if allowed to take his chance. Current odds: 40/1   GREENLAND Trainer: Aiden O’Brien Another Aiden O’Brien entry who finished just a length and a quarter behind The Foxes in the Royal Lodge last backend. Winner of a Group 3 at Saint Cloud over 10 1/2F on very soft ground at beginning of this month and needs to step his form up further to play a part in the finish if allowed to take his chance. Current odds: 66/1   KING OF STEEL Trainer: Roger Varian Last seen when running down the field in the Vertem Futurity at Doncaster in October beaten some 9 3/4L by winner Auguste Rodin for owners Amo Racing for trainer David Loughnane. Has since joined Roger Varian and was a 28/1 chance when playing up in stalls for the Dante Stakes at York last week when being withdrawn. Current odds: 100/1   MILITARY ORDER Trainer: Charlie Appleby A full brother to the 2021 Derby winner Adayar and has followed his hoof prints in winning at Newbury impressively on his re-appearance and following up in the Lingfield Derby Trial, run on the all weather, by 1 1/4L from Waipiro at a track that wouldn’t have shown him at his best. Already done more than his illustrious brother, who got beat in the Lingfield Derby Trial, prior to winning this and looks sure to run a big race. Current odds: 3/1   MODESTY Trainer: Freddie & Martyn Meade Ran out a comfortable 3L winner of a 1M York maiden last October from a 74 rated maiden. That form looks average enough and a massive ask to step up from that to be involved here. Current odds: 100/1   PASSENGER Trainer: Sir Michael Stoute Will need to be supplemented at a cost of £85,000 if his connections wish to run. Was the unlucky horse in the Dante Stakes at York when jockey Richard Kingscote continually failing to get a clear passage flashing home to finish 1 1/2L third to The Foxes and White Birch. That was only his second ever start having won the Wood Ditton at Newmarket in April on his racecourse bow. Stoute’s last three Derby winners (including last year with Desert Crown) ran in this, with Workforce finishing runner up on his second career start prior to winning at Epsom. I'm reliably informed that he will be supplemented and looks likely to be a springer in the market when that news breaks.   PADDINGTON Trainer: Aiden O’Brien Has improved this season winning a Naas handicap comfortably when well backed and a listed race at The Curragh earlier this month by a length and a half from Drumroll. Yet to race beyond a mile although his dam won at upto 1M 5F so should stay well enough. Going the right way and if allowed to take his chance there would be worse 40/1 chances than him. Current odds: 40/1   SAN ANTONIO Trainer: Aiden O’Brien Followed up a comfortable 3 3/4L Dundalk maiden win in March with victory in the listed Dee Stakes at Chester by 1 /4L from Alder over 1M 2 1/2F. Extra distance here should be fine and progressing the right way. Current odds: 25/1   SPREWELL Trainer: Jessie Harrington Followed up his Naas win in March with comfortable 3L victory in the Leopardstown Derby Trial from a couple of useful sorts in Up And Under and Proud And Regal. Extra 2F here will no doubt suit and looks a player although has only run on soft ground so possibly wouldn’t want a fast ground (unlikely) Derby. Current odds: 10/1   SQUIRE DANAGHER Trainer: A Oliver A thrice raced maiden that looks totally out his depth here. Likely to finish last if turning up. Current odds: 200/1   THE FOXES Trainer: Andrew Balding Has some top class form in winning Group 1 Royal Lodge as a juvenile and following a credible runner up in the Craven Stakes at Newmarket took the Dante Stakes at York last week by a neck from White Birch. Extra furlong and a half here should suit and holds genuine each way claims. Current odds: 10/1   WAIPIRO Trainer: Ed Walker Stepped up when giving current favourite Military Order a scare at Lingfield in their Derby Trial run on the all-weather earlier this month when going down by a length and a quarter. Lightly raced and no shock were he to hit the frame at nice odds on that run alone. Current odds: 20/1   WHITE BIRCH Trainer: John Joseph Murphy Stepped up from his Group 3 Leopardstown victory in April when running a stormer in the Dante Stakes in chasing home The Foxes only going down by a neck. Highly rated by his trainer and has solid each way claims. Current odds: 14/1   Aiden O’Brien has left eight in although he has stated not all will run with his main hope Auguste Rodin still very high in his thoughts. I can’t get over his poor run at Newmarket and for me is opposable at his current odds. Military Order is going the right way for the boys in blue although he didn’t blow me away last time on the all weather in winning the Lingfield Derby Trial although to be fair the track wouldn’t have played to his strengths that day. Arrest had little to beat when winning well at Chester and obviously prefers some cut in the ground likewise Irish challenger Sprewell. Passenger will no doubt be a springer in the market when he’s supplemented for this as he was the one to take out of the Dante Stakes in finishing an unlucky third. His trainer is never one to rush his horses mind so until he’s committed to the race has to be watched. The value in the race may be with Charlie Johnstone’s Dubai Mile who beat Arrest as a two year old but can be backed at over double the odds. There was plenty to like about his 5th in the 2000 Guineas over a trip woefully too short for him (he won a Group 1 as a juvenile over 10F on soft ground) and looks each way value at a top priced 16/1.   DUBAI MILE 1 point each way @ 16/1   Watch DubaiMile work this morning:- https://twitter.com/ValueRacingPlus/status/1661299085071077377?s=20  

Oaks 
Savethelastdance 9.2 11/8 
Running lion    8.7 7/1 
Jackie o      8.3 
Can't see past the top 2 here ....I think 9/10 of last oaks have been won by o brien or gosden and they are top 2 rated again ......Jackie o could run well at big price ew 

The Oaks is only just over a week away and with all the trials done and dusted it seems a good time to have a look at the historic race afresh. With just two declaration stages remaining we have 24 three year old fillies still left in the race which will e’ll be run at Epsom over 1M 4F on 2nd June. Here’s my horse by horse analysis with an ante post suggested bet.   ASHTANGA Trainer: Freddie & Martyn Meade A soft ground Nottingham maiden winner as a two year old she was beaten out of sight by current favourite Savethelastdance at Chester in the Cheshire Oaks and it would be a major surprise were she to figure. Current odds: 100/1   BE HAPPY Trainer: Aiden O’Brien One of nine Aiden O’Brien runners still in the race. Ran well on re-appearance when third in Group 3 in France and ran to same level when runner up to Godolphin’s Eternal Hope in the Lingfield Oaks Trial run on the all weather. Bit to find with the principals.   BLUESTOCKING Trainer: Ralph Beckett Looked useful when winning at Salisbury on her debut back in September and wasn’t disgraced on re-appearance when going down by a head to Aiden O’Brien’s Warm Heart in Newbury’s listed Oaks trial last weekend over 10F. This race may come a bit soon and Royal Ascot is probably more likely her target.   BOOGIE WOOGIE Trainer: Aiden O’Brien Was 2 1/2L behind her stablemate and current favourite Savethelastdance in a maiden on her re-appearance at Leopardstown and subsequently broke her duck on her next start at Naas. Upped in grade when her limitations were exposed in running 6th of 10 in the 10F Prix Saint-Alary earlier this month. Current odds: 50/1   BRIGHT DIAMOND Trainer: Karl Burke Best run as a juvenile came when third in the Group 1 Fillies Mile at Newmarket, beaten 5 3/4L by Commissioning. Easy to back and a bit disappointing when only 5th in Lingfield Oaks Trial behind Eternal Pearl and Be Happy only run since. Needs to step up from that effort to have a place chance. Current odds: 50/1   CAERNARFON Trainer: Jack Channon Ran well on her re-appearance when 4th (beaten 10 1/2L) to Mawj in the 1000 Guineas. That was over a mile and on breeding there has to be serious doubts as to whether she’ll stay this trip of 1M 4F. Current odds: 50/1   CLOUDBREAKER Trainer: Charlie Fellowes Only rated 83 and was behind Bluestocking at Newbury last week. Would be better off going down the handicap route and is a no hoper. Current odds: 100/1   DANCE IN THE GRASS Trainer: Charlie Johnstone Went off at 200/1 when running a respectable 5th (beaten 11 1/2L) in 1000 Guineas on her re-appearance. Plenty of stamina in her pedigree and she should improve for stepping up in trip. Could outrun her odds with stamina now drawn out. Current odds: 40/1   EMPRESS WU Trainer: David Simcock Lingfield all-weather maiden winner as a juvenile. Was found out when stepping up in grade in the Musidora Stakes at York when finishing last but one of the eight runners, beaten 9 1/2L by Soul Sister. Unlikely to bridge that gap and hard to fancy. Current odds: 100/1   ETERNAL HOPE Trainer: Charlie Appleby A lightly raced improving Teofilo filly who’s yet to race on turf. She improved from a maiden win at Chelmsford to winning the Lingfield Oaks Trial run on the all weather surface by 1 3/4L from Be Happy. Has to be supplemented to run here at a cost of £85,000.   HEARTACHE TONIGHT Trainer: David Menuisier A half sister to the stables Group 1 winning mare Wonderful Tonight and has shown plenty of ability of her own in three starts in France. The best effort coming when 4th, beaten 1 1/2L, in Group 1 Prix Saint-Alary earlier this month. The step up in trip will suit but has only raced on soft ground. Her trainer has stated she’s unlikely to run on good fast ground. If getting her conditions she’s no 40/1 chance. Current odds: 40/1   INFINITE COSMOS Trainer: Sir Michael Stoute Was well supported when winning her maiden at the Newmarket Guineas meeting and was well backed once more when stepping up in grade to run in the Musidora Stakes at York when going down by 4 1/2L to Soul Sister. Extra furlong and a half should suit but hard to envisage her turning tables on the winner that day. Current odds: 12/1   JACKIE OH Trainer: Aiden O’Brien Dam was first past the post in 1000 Guineas so classically bred. Only run the twice, winning a 1M Naas maiden on soft ground in March and runner up in listed company at Navan the following month. One of 9 Aiden O’Brien possibles but will need to step her game up to feature here. Current odds: 33/1   MAMAN JOON Trainer: Richard Hannon Owned by Amo Racing and has had just the one career start when running the impressive Gather Ye Rosebuds to 9 1/2L in a Newbury 10F maiden on soft ground in April. The winner was put in her place in the Musidora and that form is hardly good enough. Current odds: 50/1   MEDITATE Trainer: Aiden O’Brien One of the best two year olds around last season winning 5 of her 7 starts including the Breeders Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf over a mile. Went off second favourite in 1000 Guineas when only 6th to Mawj beaten 11 1/2L. Up half a mile here and unlikely to stay and an unlikely runner. Current odds: 66/1   NEVER ENDING STORY Trainer: Aiden O’Brien Group 3 winner at Leopardstown in April and wasn’t totally disgraced when 5th in French 1000 Guineas last weekend, beaten only 5L. Yet to race beyond a mile though there’s stamina on both sides of her pedigree so may appreciate stepping up in distance now. Each way claims. Current odds: 16/1   POLLY POT Trainer: Ben Pauling Winner of the Group 2 May Hill Stakes as a juvenile for the now retired Harry Dunlop. Has since joined predominantly jumps trainer Ben Pauling in the Cotswolds but shown very little in two starts (1000 Guineas & Newbury Oaks Trial) and may not have trained on. Current odds: 100/1   RED RIDING HOOD Trainer: Aiden O’Brien Another Aiden O’Brien filly who broke her maiden at Dundalk on the sand in April at 2/7. Wore first time blinkers when third, beaten 3/4L in 10F Group 3 at Naas at beginning of month so has plenty to find. Current odds: 66/1   RICH Trainer: Richard Hannon Beaten in Brighton handicap on penultimate outing and has an official rating of only 87. Total no hoper. Current odds: 200/1   RUNNING LION Trainer: John & Thady Gosden Won her last four starts (three on the all weather) and took her form to another level when an easy winner of the listed 10F Pretty Polly Stakes at Newmarket’s Guineas meeting. She came home 4 1/2L to the good that day from Sumo Sam, who’s been beaten since at odds on so it may not have been the strongest renewal of that race. Connections aren’t sure whether she’ll stay 1M 4F and question marks hang over her for that reason. Current odds: 7/1   SAVETHELASTDANCE Trainer: Aiden O’Brien Followed a Leopardstown maiden win on soft ground (form worked out well) with a staggering 22L victory in the Cheshire Oaks on soft ground. Visually very impressive and must go very close here as long as there’s some cut in ground. Interestingly her part owner Paul Smith was saying afterwards they think she will be even better on better ground. No value in the price now but massive chance. Current odds: 11/8   SEA OF ROSES Trainer: Andrew Balding Runner up in a Group 3 in France on re-appearance prior to finishing 7 3/4L 5th of 8 in Musidora behind Soul Sister. Has a bit to find on that run and would only hold a small place chance. Current odds: 50/1   SOUL SISTER Trainer: John & Thady Gosden Obviously hated the soft ground at Newbury on re-appearance (also apparently resented wearing a cross noseband) when finishing plum last of twelve beaten some 22L but turned in a much improved run when winning the Musidora Stakes at York when always travelling well on the better ground on the near side and running out a 4L winner (Infinite Cosmos, Sea Of Roses & Empress Wu all behind and looking held). The extra furlong and a half shouldn’t be an issue and holds a major chance. Current odds: 3/1   UNLESS Trainer: Aiden O’Brien Finally broke her maiden at Naas last week winning by 2 1/2L at their seventh attempt. Only rated 89 and unlikely to be troubling the judge. Current odds: 50/1   WARM HEART Trainer: Aiden O’Brien Galileo filly who stepped up from her Leopardstown maiden victory when winning the listed 10F Newbury Oaks trial by a head from Bluestocking last week. Extra 2F shouldn’t be an issue and holds each way claims as long as this race doesn’t come too soon. Current odds: 14/1   This may well revolve around the two fillies at the top of the market in Aiden O’Brien’s Savethelastdance and John and Thady Gosden’s Soul Sister. The former was so impressive at Chester but that did come on soft ground and if, as looks likely, the ground rides on the better side next weekend she could be vulnerable especially at her current odds. I prefer Soul Sister who had a valid excuse on her re-appearance (soggy ground and not taking to a cross noseband) and looked a quality filly for a stable who know how to train the fairer sex. She’s the pick of the current prices. Her stable mate Running Lion isn’t a certain stayer and I’m not quite sure what she beat at Newmarket in the Pretty Polly whilst Infinite Cosmos looks comfortably held by the selection. Were the ground to turn soft then David Menuisier’s Heartache Tonight a half sister to the stable’s Group 1 winning mare Wonderful Tonight would be worth backing each way at around the 40/1 but she is very ground dependent.   SOUL SISTER 2 points win @ 10/3 bet365   My Epsom Derby thoughts can be found here:-  https://forum.punterslounge.com/topic/183371-epsom-derby/  

A guy on twitter that does work for the yard is very sweet on Heartache Tonight. Not been much pace in either of her races this season, should be much better in a truly run race. As you say, with some rain could be worth a go at a big price.

With all the main trials run I thought it would be a good time to take stock and have a fresh look at the Epsom Derby to be run over a mile and a half a week this Saturday. There are currently twenty one still entered with two declaration stages to go plus the possibility of a horse/s being supplemented at a cost of £85,000 Here’s a horse by horse analysis with an ante-post play at the end.   ADELAIDE RIVER Trainer: Aiden O’Brien One of eight O’Brien horses still left in the race. Was 6 1/2L behind Arrest in Chester Vase on his re-appearance and will need to improve considerably on that to feature. Current odds: 66/1   ALDER Trainer: Donnacha O’Brien Runner up to San Antonio in Chester’s Dee Stakes over 10F following a win at Cork in April. Stepping up in trip here may bring about some improvement but will need to. Current odds: 25/1   ARREST Trainer: John & Thady Gosden Bidding to give Frankie Dettori a winning Derby ride in his last year and has sound claims of doing so. Best run as a two year old when finishing a head runner up in Group 1 Criterium de Saint Cloud in October on heavy ground to Dubai Mike and sluiced through the mud when a very easy winner of the Chester Vase by 6 1/2L from Adelaide River. Has won on good to firm although his two best runs have come with plenty of ease in the ground so any rain will suit this Juddmonte owned Frankel colt who has a live chance. Current odds: 13/2   ARTISTIC STAR Trainer: Ralph Beckett Shown good form in winning a Nottingham maiden last October and a 10F novice stakes contest at Sandown earlier this month from Torito. A promising sort who his trainer stated after his recent victory that the Derby may come too soon and Royal Ascot is a more realistic target. Current odds: 50/1   AUGUSTE RODIN Trainer: Aiden O’Brien Arguably the best two year old from last season winning a Naas maiden, Group 2 at Leopardstown and the Group 1 Vertem Futurity Trophy Stakes at Doncaster all with give in the ground. Went off 13/8 favourite when a major flop in the 2000 Guineas, getting bumped by his stable mate Little Big Bear and trailing home in 12th (of 14) place beaten 22L. Steps up from a mile to a mile and a half here and his trainer has been talking him up since but looks poor value at his current odds on his 2000 Guineas run. Current odds: 7/2   COVENT GARDEN Trainer: Aiden O’Brien Placed third on re-appearance in 1M 5F listed race at Navan. Yet another Aiden O’Brien runner who looks more of a stayer and hard to fancy. Current odds: 100/1   DEAR MY FRIEND Trainer: Charlie Johnstone Won the Burradon Stakes on the all weather at Newcastle in April but was beaten 6 3/4L into 8th place in the Dante Stakes at 22/1 and looks highly unlikely to give rookie trainer Charlie Johnstone a Derby winner in his first year training in his own name. Current odds: 66/1   DUBAI MILE Trainer: Charlie Johnstone Smart juvenile finishing runner up to The Foxes ( beaten 1/2L) in the Royal Lodge before taking the Group 1 Criterium de Saint Cloud on heavy ground by a head from Arrest over 10F. Made a highly satisfactory re-appearance when fifth in 2000 Guineas, beaten 5 1/4L by Chaldean and the longer trip of The Derby looks highly likely to suit. Looks overpriced and looks a very interesting runner for his first season (in his name anyway) trainer. Current odds: 16/1   ESPIONAGE Trainer: Aiden O’Brien Not seen since last October when beaten a head by Proud And Regal in Group 1 Criterium International at Saint Cloud on heavy ground. Longer trip today should suit and one of the better outsiders if allowed to take his chance for Aiden O’Brien. Current odds: 40/1   GOOLOOGONG Trainer: Aiden O’Brien Naas 10F winner on heavy ground back in March by 2 1/4L from Nation’s Call ( beaten since) with the pair a long way clear of the remainder. Form doesn’t amount to much and would need a giant leap of faith if allowed to take his chance. Current odds: 40/1   GREENLAND Trainer: Aiden O’Brien Another Aiden O’Brien entry who finished just a length and a quarter behind The Foxes in the Royal Lodge last backend. Winner of a Group 3 at Saint Cloud over 10 1/2F on very soft ground at beginning of this month and needs to step his form up further to play a part in the finish if allowed to take his chance. Current odds: 66/1   KING OF STEEL Trainer: Roger Varian Last seen when running down the field in the Vertem Futurity at Doncaster in October beaten some 9 3/4L by winner Auguste Rodin for owners Amo Racing for trainer David Loughnane. Has since joined Roger Varian and was a 28/1 chance when playing up in stalls for the Dante Stakes at York last week when being withdrawn. Current odds: 100/1   MILITARY ORDER Trainer: Charlie Appleby A full brother to the 2021 Derby winner Adayar and has followed his hoof prints in winning at Newbury impressively on his re-appearance and following up in the Lingfield Derby Trial, run on the all weather, by 1 1/4L from Waipiro at a track that wouldn’t have shown him at his best. Already done more than his illustrious brother, who got beat in the Lingfield Derby Trial, prior to winning this and looks sure to run a big race. Current odds: 3/1   MODESTY Trainer: Freddie & Martyn Meade Ran out a comfortable 3L winner of a 1M York maiden last October from a 74 rated maiden. That form looks average enough and a massive ask to step up from that to be involved here. Current odds: 100/1   PASSENGER Trainer: Sir Michael Stoute Will need to be supplemented at a cost of £85,000 if his connections wish to run. Was the unlucky horse in the Dante Stakes at York when jockey Richard Kingscote continually failing to get a clear passage flashing home to finish 1 1/2L third to The Foxes and White Birch. That was only his second ever start having won the Wood Ditton at Newmarket in April on his racecourse bow. Stoute’s last three Derby winners (including last year with Desert Crown) ran in this, with Workforce finishing runner up on his second career start prior to winning at Epsom. I'm reliably informed that he will be supplemented and looks likely to be a springer in the market when that news breaks.   PADDINGTON Trainer: Aiden O’Brien Has improved this season winning a Naas handicap comfortably when well backed and a listed race at The Curragh earlier this month by a length and a half from Drumroll. Yet to race beyond a mile although his dam won at upto 1M 5F so should stay well enough. Going the right way and if allowed to take his chance there would be worse 40/1 chances than him. Current odds: 40/1   SAN ANTONIO Trainer: Aiden O’Brien Followed up a comfortable 3 3/4L Dundalk maiden win in March with victory in the listed Dee Stakes at Chester by 1 /4L from Alder over 1M 2 1/2F. Extra distance here should be fine and progressing the right way. Current odds: 25/1   SPREWELL Trainer: Jessie Harrington Followed up his Naas win in March with comfortable 3L victory in the Leopardstown Derby Trial from a couple of useful sorts in Up And Under and Proud And Regal. Extra 2F here will no doubt suit and looks a player although has only run on soft ground so possibly wouldn’t want a fast ground (unlikely) Derby. Current odds: 10/1   SQUIRE DANAGHER Trainer: A Oliver A thrice raced maiden that looks totally out his depth here. Likely to finish last if turning up. Current odds: 200/1   THE FOXES Trainer: Andrew Balding Has some top class form in winning Group 1 Royal Lodge as a juvenile and following a credible runner up in the Craven Stakes at Newmarket took the Dante Stakes at York last week by a neck from White Birch. Extra furlong and a half here should suit and holds genuine each way claims. Current odds: 10/1   WAIPIRO Trainer: Ed Walker Stepped up when giving current favourite Military Order a scare at Lingfield in their Derby Trial run on the all-weather earlier this month when going down by a length and a quarter. Lightly raced and no shock were he to hit the frame at nice odds on that run alone. Current odds: 20/1   WHITE BIRCH Trainer: John Joseph Murphy Stepped up from his Group 3 Leopardstown victory in April when running a stormer in the Dante Stakes in chasing home The Foxes only going down by a neck. Highly rated by his trainer and has solid each way claims. Current odds: 14/1   Aiden O’Brien has left eight in although he has stated not all will run with his main hope Auguste Rodin still very high in his thoughts. I can’t get over his poor run at Newmarket and for me is opposable at his current odds. Military Order is going the right way for the boys in blue although he didn’t blow me away last time on the all weather in winning the Lingfield Derby Trial although to be fair the track wouldn’t have played to his strengths that day. Arrest had little to beat when winning well at Chester and obviously prefers some cut in the ground likewise Irish challenger Sprewell. Passenger will no doubt be a springer in the market when he’s supplemented for this as he was the one to take out of the Dante Stakes in finishing an unlucky third. His trainer is never one to rush his horses mind so until he’s committed to the race has to be watched. The value in the race may be with Charlie Johnstone’s Dubai Mile who beat Arrest as a two year old but can be backed at over double the odds. There was plenty to like about his 5th in the 2000 Guineas over a trip woefully too short for him (he won a Group 1 as a juvenile over 10F on soft ground) and looks each way value at a top priced 16/1.   DUBAI MILE 1 point each way @ 16/1   Watch DubaiMile work this morning:- https://twitter.com/ValueRacingPlus/status/1661299085071077377?s=20  

The Oaks is only just over a week away and with all the trials done and dusted it seems a good time to have a look at the historic race afresh. With just two declaration stages remaining we have 24 three year old fillies still left in the race which will e’ll be run at Epsom over 1M 4F on 2nd June. Here’s my horse by horse analysis with an ante post suggested bet.   ASHTANGA Trainer: Freddie & Martyn Meade A soft ground Nottingham maiden winner as a two year old she was beaten out of sight by current favourite Savethelastdance at Chester in the Cheshire Oaks and it would be a major surprise were she to figure. Current odds: 100/1   BE HAPPY Trainer: Aiden O’Brien One of nine Aiden O’Brien runners still in the race. Ran well on re-appearance when third in Group 3 in France and ran to same level when runner up to Godolphin’s Eternal Hope in the Lingfield Oaks Trial run on the all weather. Bit to find with the principals.   BLUESTOCKING Trainer: Ralph Beckett Looked useful when winning at Salisbury on her debut back in September and wasn’t disgraced on re-appearance when going down by a head to Aiden O’Brien’s Warm Heart in Newbury’s listed Oaks trial last weekend over 10F. This race may come a bit soon and Royal Ascot is probably more likely her target.   BOOGIE WOOGIE Trainer: Aiden O’Brien Was 2 1/2L behind her stablemate and current favourite Savethelastdance in a maiden on her re-appearance at Leopardstown and subsequently broke her duck on her next start at Naas. Upped in grade when her limitations were exposed in running 6th of 10 in the 10F Prix Saint-Alary earlier this month. Current odds: 50/1   BRIGHT DIAMOND Trainer: Karl Burke Best run as a juvenile came when third in the Group 1 Fillies Mile at Newmarket, beaten 5 3/4L by Commissioning. Easy to back and a bit disappointing when only 5th in Lingfield Oaks Trial behind Eternal Pearl and Be Happy only run since. Needs to step up from that effort to have a place chance. Current odds: 50/1   CAERNARFON Trainer: Jack Channon Ran well on her re-appearance when 4th (beaten 10 1/2L) to Mawj in the 1000 Guineas. That was over a mile and on breeding there has to be serious doubts as to whether she’ll stay this trip of 1M 4F. Current odds: 50/1   CLOUDBREAKER Trainer: Charlie Fellowes Only rated 83 and was behind Bluestocking at Newbury last week. Would be better off going down the handicap route and is a no hoper. Current odds: 100/1   DANCE IN THE GRASS Trainer: Charlie Johnstone Went off at 200/1 when running a respectable 5th (beaten 11 1/2L) in 1000 Guineas on her re-appearance. Plenty of stamina in her pedigree and she should improve for stepping up in trip. Could outrun her odds with stamina now drawn out. Current odds: 40/1   EMPRESS WU Trainer: David Simcock Lingfield all-weather maiden winner as a juvenile. Was found out when stepping up in grade in the Musidora Stakes at York when finishing last but one of the eight runners, beaten 9 1/2L by Soul Sister. Unlikely to bridge that gap and hard to fancy. Current odds: 100/1   ETERNAL HOPE Trainer: Charlie Appleby A lightly raced improving Teofilo filly who’s yet to race on turf. She improved from a maiden win at Chelmsford to winning the Lingfield Oaks Trial run on the all weather surface by 1 3/4L from Be Happy. Has to be supplemented to run here at a cost of £85,000.   HEARTACHE TONIGHT Trainer: David Menuisier A half sister to the stables Group 1 winning mare Wonderful Tonight and has shown plenty of ability of her own in three starts in France. The best effort coming when 4th, beaten 1 1/2L, in Group 1 Prix Saint-Alary earlier this month. The step up in trip will suit but has only raced on soft ground. Her trainer has stated she’s unlikely to run on good fast ground. If getting her conditions she’s no 40/1 chance. Current odds: 40/1   INFINITE COSMOS Trainer: Sir Michael Stoute Was well supported when winning her maiden at the Newmarket Guineas meeting and was well backed once more when stepping up in grade to run in the Musidora Stakes at York when going down by 4 1/2L to Soul Sister. Extra furlong and a half should suit but hard to envisage her turning tables on the winner that day. Current odds: 12/1   JACKIE OH Trainer: Aiden O’Brien Dam was first past the post in 1000 Guineas so classically bred. Only run the twice, winning a 1M Naas maiden on soft ground in March and runner up in listed company at Navan the following month. One of 9 Aiden O’Brien possibles but will need to step her game up to feature here. Current odds: 33/1   MAMAN JOON Trainer: Richard Hannon Owned by Amo Racing and has had just the one career start when running the impressive Gather Ye Rosebuds to 9 1/2L in a Newbury 10F maiden on soft ground in April. The winner was put in her place in the Musidora and that form is hardly good enough. Current odds: 50/1   MEDITATE Trainer: Aiden O’Brien One of the best two year olds around last season winning 5 of her 7 starts including the Breeders Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf over a mile. Went off second favourite in 1000 Guineas when only 6th to Mawj beaten 11 1/2L. Up half a mile here and unlikely to stay and an unlikely runner. Current odds: 66/1   NEVER ENDING STORY Trainer: Aiden O’Brien Group 3 winner at Leopardstown in April and wasn’t totally disgraced when 5th in French 1000 Guineas last weekend, beaten only 5L. Yet to race beyond a mile though there’s stamina on both sides of her pedigree so may appreciate stepping up in distance now. Each way claims. Current odds: 16/1   POLLY POT Trainer: Ben Pauling Winner of the Group 2 May Hill Stakes as a juvenile for the now retired Harry Dunlop. Has since joined predominantly jumps trainer Ben Pauling in the Cotswolds but shown very little in two starts (1000 Guineas & Newbury Oaks Trial) and may not have trained on. Current odds: 100/1   RED RIDING HOOD Trainer: Aiden O’Brien Another Aiden O’Brien filly who broke her maiden at Dundalk on the sand in April at 2/7. Wore first time blinkers when third, beaten 3/4L in 10F Group 3 at Naas at beginning of month so has plenty to find. Current odds: 66/1   RICH Trainer: Richard Hannon Beaten in Brighton handicap on penultimate outing and has an official rating of only 87. Total no hoper. Current odds: 200/1   RUNNING LION Trainer: John & Thady Gosden Won her last four starts (three on the all weather) and took her form to another level when an easy winner of the listed 10F Pretty Polly Stakes at Newmarket’s Guineas meeting. She came home 4 1/2L to the good that day from Sumo Sam, who’s been beaten since at odds on so it may not have been the strongest renewal of that race. Connections aren’t sure whether she’ll stay 1M 4F and question marks hang over her for that reason. Current odds: 7/1   SAVETHELASTDANCE Trainer: Aiden O’Brien Followed a Leopardstown maiden win on soft ground (form worked out well) with a staggering 22L victory in the Cheshire Oaks on soft ground. Visually very impressive and must go very close here as long as there’s some cut in ground. Interestingly her part owner Paul Smith was saying afterwards they think she will be even better on better ground. No value in the price now but massive chance. Current odds: 11/8   SEA OF ROSES Trainer: Andrew Balding Runner up in a Group 3 in France on re-appearance prior to finishing 7 3/4L 5th of 8 in Musidora behind Soul Sister. Has a bit to find on that run and would only hold a small place chance. Current odds: 50/1   SOUL SISTER Trainer: John & Thady Gosden Obviously hated the soft ground at Newbury on re-appearance (also apparently resented wearing a cross noseband) when finishing plum last of twelve beaten some 22L but turned in a much improved run when winning the Musidora Stakes at York when always travelling well on the better ground on the near side and running out a 4L winner (Infinite Cosmos, Sea Of Roses & Empress Wu all behind and looking held). The extra furlong and a half shouldn’t be an issue and holds a major chance. Current odds: 3/1   UNLESS Trainer: Aiden O’Brien Finally broke her maiden at Naas last week winning by 2 1/2L at their seventh attempt. Only rated 89 and unlikely to be troubling the judge. Current odds: 50/1   WARM HEART Trainer: Aiden O’Brien Galileo filly who stepped up from her Leopardstown maiden victory when winning the listed 10F Newbury Oaks trial by a head from Bluestocking last week. Extra 2F shouldn’t be an issue and holds each way claims as long as this race doesn’t come too soon. Current odds: 14/1   This may well revolve around the two fillies at the top of the market in Aiden O’Brien’s Savethelastdance and John and Thady Gosden’s Soul Sister. The former was so impressive at Chester but that did come on soft ground and if, as looks likely, the ground rides on the better side next weekend she could be vulnerable especially at her current odds. I prefer Soul Sister who had a valid excuse on her re-appearance (soggy ground and not taking to a cross noseband) and looked a quality filly for a stable who know how to train the fairer sex. She’s the pick of the current prices. Her stable mate Running Lion isn’t a certain stayer and I’m not quite sure what she beat at Newmarket in the Pretty Polly whilst Infinite Cosmos looks comfortably held by the selection. Were the ground to turn soft then David Menuisier’s Heartache Tonight a half sister to the stable’s Group 1 winning mare Wonderful Tonight would be worth backing each way at around the 40/1 but she is very ground dependent.   SOUL SISTER 2 points win @ 10/3 bet365   My Epsom Derby thoughts can be found here:-  https://forum.punterslounge.com/topic/183371-epsom-derby/  

The Oaks is only just over a week away and with all the trials done and dusted it seems a good time to have a look at the historic race afresh. With just two declaration stages remaining we have 24 three year old fillies still left in the race which will e’ll be run at Epsom over 1M 4F on 2nd June. Here’s my horse by horse analysis with an ante post suggested bet.   ASHTANGA Trainer: Freddie & Martyn Meade A soft ground Nottingham maiden winner as a two year old she was beaten out of sight by current favourite Savethelastdance at Chester in the Cheshire Oaks and it would be a major surprise were she to figure. Current odds: 100/1   BE HAPPY Trainer: Aiden O’Brien One of nine Aiden O’Brien runners still in the race. Ran well on re-appearance when third in Group 3 in France and ran to same level when runner up to Godolphin’s Eternal Hope in the Lingfield Oaks Trial run on the all weather. Bit to find with the principals.   BLUESTOCKING Trainer: Ralph Beckett Looked useful when winning at Salisbury on her debut back in September and wasn’t disgraced on re-appearance when going down by a head to Aiden O’Brien’s Warm Heart in Newbury’s listed Oaks trial last weekend over 10F. This race may come a bit soon and Royal Ascot is probably more likely her target.   BOOGIE WOOGIE Trainer: Aiden O’Brien Was 2 1/2L behind her stablemate and current favourite Savethelastdance in a maiden on her re-appearance at Leopardstown and subsequently broke her duck on her next start at Naas. Upped in grade when her limitations were exposed in running 6th of 10 in the 10F Prix Saint-Alary earlier this month. Current odds: 50/1   BRIGHT DIAMOND Trainer: Karl Burke Best run as a juvenile came when third in the Group 1 Fillies Mile at Newmarket, beaten 5 3/4L by Commissioning. Easy to back and a bit disappointing when only 5th in Lingfield Oaks Trial behind Eternal Pearl and Be Happy only run since. Needs to step up from that effort to have a place chance. Current odds: 50/1   CAERNARFON Trainer: Jack Channon Ran well on her re-appearance when 4th (beaten 10 1/2L) to Mawj in the 1000 Guineas. That was over a mile and on breeding there has to be serious doubts as to whether she’ll stay this trip of 1M 4F. Current odds: 50/1   CLOUDBREAKER Trainer: Charlie Fellowes Only rated 83 and was behind Bluestocking at Newbury last week. Would be better off going down the handicap route and is a no hoper. Current odds: 100/1   DANCE IN THE GRASS Trainer: Charlie Johnstone Went off at 200/1 when running a respectable 5th (beaten 11 1/2L) in 1000 Guineas on her re-appearance. Plenty of stamina in her pedigree and she should improve for stepping up in trip. Could outrun her odds with stamina now drawn out. Current odds: 40/1   EMPRESS WU Trainer: David Simcock Lingfield all-weather maiden winner as a juvenile. Was found out when stepping up in grade in the Musidora Stakes at York when finishing last but one of the eight runners, beaten 9 1/2L by Soul Sister. Unlikely to bridge that gap and hard to fancy. Current odds: 100/1   ETERNAL HOPE Trainer: Charlie Appleby A lightly raced improving Teofilo filly who’s yet to race on turf. She improved from a maiden win at Chelmsford to winning the Lingfield Oaks Trial run on the all weather surface by 1 3/4L from Be Happy. Has to be supplemented to run here at a cost of £85,000.   HEARTACHE TONIGHT Trainer: David Menuisier A half sister to the stables Group 1 winning mare Wonderful Tonight and has shown plenty of ability of her own in three starts in France. The best effort coming when 4th, beaten 1 1/2L, in Group 1 Prix Saint-Alary earlier this month. The step up in trip will suit but has only raced on soft ground. Her trainer has stated she’s unlikely to run on good fast ground. If getting her conditions she’s no 40/1 chance. Current odds: 40/1   INFINITE COSMOS Trainer: Sir Michael Stoute Was well supported when winning her maiden at the Newmarket Guineas meeting and was well backed once more when stepping up in grade to run in the Musidora Stakes at York when going down by 4 1/2L to Soul Sister. Extra furlong and a half should suit but hard to envisage her turning tables on the winner that day. Current odds: 12/1   JACKIE OH Trainer: Aiden O’Brien Dam was first past the post in 1000 Guineas so classically bred. Only run the twice, winning a 1M Naas maiden on soft ground in March and runner up in listed company at Navan the following month. One of 9 Aiden O’Brien possibles but will need to step her game up to feature here. Current odds: 33/1   MAMAN JOON Trainer: Richard Hannon Owned by Amo Racing and has had just the one career start when running the impressive Gather Ye Rosebuds to 9 1/2L in a Newbury 10F maiden on soft ground in April. The winner was put in her place in the Musidora and that form is hardly good enough. Current odds: 50/1   MEDITATE Trainer: Aiden O’Brien One of the best two year olds around last season winning 5 of her 7 starts including the Breeders Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf over a mile. Went off second favourite in 1000 Guineas when only 6th to Mawj beaten 11 1/2L. Up half a mile here and unlikely to stay and an unlikely runner. Current odds: 66/1   NEVER ENDING STORY Trainer: Aiden O’Brien Group 3 winner at Leopardstown in April and wasn’t totally disgraced when 5th in French 1000 Guineas last weekend, beaten only 5L. Yet to race beyond a mile though there’s stamina on both sides of her pedigree so may appreciate stepping up in distance now. Each way claims. Current odds: 16/1   POLLY POT Trainer: Ben Pauling Winner of the Group 2 May Hill Stakes as a juvenile for the now retired Harry Dunlop. Has since joined predominantly jumps trainer Ben Pauling in the Cotswolds but shown very little in two starts (1000 Guineas & Newbury Oaks Trial) and may not have trained on. Current odds: 100/1   RED RIDING HOOD Trainer: Aiden O’Brien Another Aiden O’Brien filly who broke her maiden at Dundalk on the sand in April at 2/7. Wore first time blinkers when third, beaten 3/4L in 10F Group 3 at Naas at beginning of month so has plenty to find. Current odds: 66/1   RICH Trainer: Richard Hannon Beaten in Brighton handicap on penultimate outing and has an official rating of only 87. Total no hoper. Current odds: 200/1   RUNNING LION Trainer: John & Thady Gosden Won her last four starts (three on the all weather) and took her form to another level when an easy winner of the listed 10F Pretty Polly Stakes at Newmarket’s Guineas meeting. She came home 4 1/2L to the good that day from Sumo Sam, who’s been beaten since at odds on so it may not have been the strongest renewal of that race. Connections aren’t sure whether she’ll stay 1M 4F and question marks hang over her for that reason. Current odds: 7/1   SAVETHELASTDANCE Trainer: Aiden O’Brien Followed a Leopardstown maiden win on soft ground (form worked out well) with a staggering 22L victory in the Cheshire Oaks on soft ground. Visually very impressive and must go very close here as long as there’s some cut in ground. Interestingly her part owner Paul Smith was saying afterwards they think she will be even better on better ground. No value in the price now but massive chance. Current odds: 11/8   SEA OF ROSES Trainer: Andrew Balding Runner up in a Group 3 in France on re-appearance prior to finishing 7 3/4L 5th of 8 in Musidora behind Soul Sister. Has a bit to find on that run and would only hold a small place chance. Current odds: 50/1   SOUL SISTER Trainer: John & Thady Gosden Obviously hated the soft ground at Newbury on re-appearance (also apparently resented wearing a cross noseband) when finishing plum last of twelve beaten some 22L but turned in a much improved run when winning the Musidora Stakes at York when always travelling well on the better ground on the near side and running out a 4L winner (Infinite Cosmos, Sea Of Roses & Empress Wu all behind and looking held). The extra furlong and a half shouldn’t be an issue and holds a major chance. Current odds: 3/1   UNLESS Trainer: Aiden O’Brien Finally broke her maiden at Naas last week winning by 2 1/2L at their seventh attempt. Only rated 89 and unlikely to be troubling the judge. Current odds: 50/1   WARM HEART Trainer: Aiden O’Brien Galileo filly who stepped up from her Leopardstown maiden victory when winning the listed 10F Newbury Oaks trial by a head from Bluestocking last week. Extra 2F shouldn’t be an issue and holds each way claims as long as this race doesn’t come too soon. Current odds: 14/1   This may well revolve around the two fillies at the top of the market in Aiden O’Brien’s Savethelastdance and John and Thady Gosden’s Soul Sister. The former was so impressive at Chester but that did come on soft ground and if, as looks likely, the ground rides on the better side next weekend she could be vulnerable especially at her current odds. I prefer Soul Sister who had a valid excuse on her re-appearance (soggy ground and not taking to a cross noseband) and looked a quality filly for a stable who know how to train the fairer sex. She’s the pick of the current prices. Her stable mate Running Lion isn’t a certain stayer and I’m not quite sure what she beat at Newmarket in the Pretty Polly whilst Infinite Cosmos looks comfortably held by the selection. Were the ground to turn soft then David Menuisier’s Heartache Tonight a half sister to the stable’s Group 1 winning mare Wonderful Tonight would be worth backing each way at around the 40/1 but she is very ground dependent.   SOUL SISTER 2 points win @ 10/3 bet365   My Epsom Derby thoughts can be found here:-  https://forum.punterslounge.com/topic/183371-epsom-derby/  

Fully agree with you on the times being quick across the card, and i mentioned the proviso of ground re the derby. Arrest from my perspective is held by Dubai Mile and has never done a decent time. The key line from the Dante meeting is the 5 year old Free wind (a very good horse) v The foxes over the same trip with the same weight. the foxes ran over 4 seconds faster than Free wind. One could argue that what is the likelihood of the 3 best horses running in the same race (Dante) which is a fair point until you consider it is the premier derby trial. Like you say its going to be interesting even though i wont be having a significant singles bet in the derby at those odds my strategy will be all about the forecast. Just a footnote i have arrest down on my short list of St Leger horses along with Dubai Mile.

With all the main trials run I thought it would be a good time to take stock and have a fresh look at the Epsom Derby to be run over a mile and a half a week this Saturday. There are currently twenty one still entered with two declaration stages to go plus the possibility of a horse/s being supplemented at a cost of £85,000 Here’s a horse by horse analysis with an ante-post play at the end.   ADELAIDE RIVER Trainer: Aiden O’Brien One of eight O’Brien horses still left in the race. Was 6 1/2L behind Arrest in Chester Vase on his re-appearance and will need to improve considerably on that to feature. Current odds: 66/1   ALDER Trainer: Donnacha O’Brien Runner up to San Antonio in Chester’s Dee Stakes over 10F following a win at Cork in April. Stepping up in trip here may bring about some improvement but will need to. Current odds: 25/1   ARREST Trainer: John & Thady Gosden Bidding to give Frankie Dettori a winning Derby ride in his last year and has sound claims of doing so. Best run as a two year old when finishing a head runner up in Group 1 Criterium de Saint Cloud in October on heavy ground to Dubai Mike and sluiced through the mud when a very easy winner of the Chester Vase by 6 1/2L from Adelaide River. Has won on good to firm although his two best runs have come with plenty of ease in the ground so any rain will suit this Juddmonte owned Frankel colt who has a live chance. Current odds: 13/2   ARTISTIC STAR Trainer: Ralph Beckett Shown good form in winning a Nottingham maiden last October and a 10F novice stakes contest at Sandown earlier this month from Torito. A promising sort who his trainer stated after his recent victory that the Derby may come too soon and Royal Ascot is a more realistic target. Current odds: 50/1   AUGUSTE RODIN Trainer: Aiden O’Brien Arguably the best two year old from last season winning a Naas maiden, Group 2 at Leopardstown and the Group 1 Vertem Futurity Trophy Stakes at Doncaster all with give in the ground. Went off 13/8 favourite when a major flop in the 2000 Guineas, getting bumped by his stable mate Little Big Bear and trailing home in 12th (of 14) place beaten 22L. Steps up from a mile to a mile and a half here and his trainer has been talking him up since but looks poor value at his current odds on his 2000 Guineas run. Current odds: 7/2   COVENT GARDEN Trainer: Aiden O’Brien Placed third on re-appearance in 1M 5F listed race at Navan. Yet another Aiden O’Brien runner who looks more of a stayer and hard to fancy. Current odds: 100/1   DEAR MY FRIEND Trainer: Charlie Johnstone Won the Burradon Stakes on the all weather at Newcastle in April but was beaten 6 3/4L into 8th place in the Dante Stakes at 22/1 and looks highly unlikely to give rookie trainer Charlie Johnstone a Derby winner in his first year training in his own name. Current odds: 66/1   DUBAI MILE Trainer: Charlie Johnstone Smart juvenile finishing runner up to The Foxes ( beaten 1/2L) in the Royal Lodge before taking the Group 1 Criterium de Saint Cloud on heavy ground by a head from Arrest over 10F. Made a highly satisfactory re-appearance when fifth in 2000 Guineas, beaten 5 1/4L by Chaldean and the longer trip of The Derby looks highly likely to suit. Looks overpriced and looks a very interesting runner for his first season (in his name anyway) trainer. Current odds: 16/1   ESPIONAGE Trainer: Aiden O’Brien Not seen since last October when beaten a head by Proud And Regal in Group 1 Criterium International at Saint Cloud on heavy ground. Longer trip today should suit and one of the better outsiders if allowed to take his chance for Aiden O’Brien. Current odds: 40/1   GOOLOOGONG Trainer: Aiden O’Brien Naas 10F winner on heavy ground back in March by 2 1/4L from Nation’s Call ( beaten since) with the pair a long way clear of the remainder. Form doesn’t amount to much and would need a giant leap of faith if allowed to take his chance. Current odds: 40/1   GREENLAND Trainer: Aiden O’Brien Another Aiden O’Brien entry who finished just a length and a quarter behind The Foxes in the Royal Lodge last backend. Winner of a Group 3 at Saint Cloud over 10 1/2F on very soft ground at beginning of this month and needs to step his form up further to play a part in the finish if allowed to take his chance. Current odds: 66/1   KING OF STEEL Trainer: Roger Varian Last seen when running down the field in the Vertem Futurity at Doncaster in October beaten some 9 3/4L by winner Auguste Rodin for owners Amo Racing for trainer David Loughnane. Has since joined Roger Varian and was a 28/1 chance when playing up in stalls for the Dante Stakes at York last week when being withdrawn. Current odds: 100/1   MILITARY ORDER Trainer: Charlie Appleby A full brother to the 2021 Derby winner Adayar and has followed his hoof prints in winning at Newbury impressively on his re-appearance and following up in the Lingfield Derby Trial, run on the all weather, by 1 1/4L from Waipiro at a track that wouldn’t have shown him at his best. Already done more than his illustrious brother, who got beat in the Lingfield Derby Trial, prior to winning this and looks sure to run a big race. Current odds: 3/1   MODESTY Trainer: Freddie & Martyn Meade Ran out a comfortable 3L winner of a 1M York maiden last October from a 74 rated maiden. That form looks average enough and a massive ask to step up from that to be involved here. Current odds: 100/1   PASSENGER Trainer: Sir Michael Stoute Will need to be supplemented at a cost of £85,000 if his connections wish to run. Was the unlucky horse in the Dante Stakes at York when jockey Richard Kingscote continually failing to get a clear passage flashing home to finish 1 1/2L third to The Foxes and White Birch. That was only his second ever start having won the Wood Ditton at Newmarket in April on his racecourse bow. Stoute’s last three Derby winners (including last year with Desert Crown) ran in this, with Workforce finishing runner up on his second career start prior to winning at Epsom. I'm reliably informed that he will be supplemented and looks likely to be a springer in the market when that news breaks.   PADDINGTON Trainer: Aiden O’Brien Has improved this season winning a Naas handicap comfortably when well backed and a listed race at The Curragh earlier this month by a length and a half from Drumroll. Yet to race beyond a mile although his dam won at upto 1M 5F so should stay well enough. Going the right way and if allowed to take his chance there would be worse 40/1 chances than him. Current odds: 40/1   SAN ANTONIO Trainer: Aiden O’Brien Followed up a comfortable 3 3/4L Dundalk maiden win in March with victory in the listed Dee Stakes at Chester by 1 /4L from Alder over 1M 2 1/2F. Extra distance here should be fine and progressing the right way. Current odds: 25/1   SPREWELL Trainer: Jessie Harrington Followed up his Naas win in March with comfortable 3L victory in the Leopardstown Derby Trial from a couple of useful sorts in Up And Under and Proud And Regal. Extra 2F here will no doubt suit and looks a player although has only run on soft ground so possibly wouldn’t want a fast ground (unlikely) Derby. Current odds: 10/1   SQUIRE DANAGHER Trainer: A Oliver A thrice raced maiden that looks totally out his depth here. Likely to finish last if turning up. Current odds: 200/1   THE FOXES Trainer: Andrew Balding Has some top class form in winning Group 1 Royal Lodge as a juvenile and following a credible runner up in the Craven Stakes at Newmarket took the Dante Stakes at York last week by a neck from White Birch. Extra furlong and a half here should suit and holds genuine each way claims. Current odds: 10/1   WAIPIRO Trainer: Ed Walker Stepped up when giving current favourite Military Order a scare at Lingfield in their Derby Trial run on the all-weather earlier this month when going down by a length and a quarter. Lightly raced and no shock were he to hit the frame at nice odds on that run alone. Current odds: 20/1   WHITE BIRCH Trainer: John Joseph Murphy Stepped up from his Group 3 Leopardstown victory in April when running a stormer in the Dante Stakes in chasing home The Foxes only going down by a neck. Highly rated by his trainer and has solid each way claims. Current odds: 14/1   Aiden O’Brien has left eight in although he has stated not all will run with his main hope Auguste Rodin still very high in his thoughts. I can’t get over his poor run at Newmarket and for me is opposable at his current odds. Military Order is going the right way for the boys in blue although he didn’t blow me away last time on the all weather in winning the Lingfield Derby Trial although to be fair the track wouldn’t have played to his strengths that day. Arrest had little to beat when winning well at Chester and obviously prefers some cut in the ground likewise Irish challenger Sprewell. Passenger will no doubt be a springer in the market when he’s supplemented for this as he was the one to take out of the Dante Stakes in finishing an unlucky third. His trainer is never one to rush his horses mind so until he’s committed to the race has to be watched. The value in the race may be with Charlie Johnstone’s Dubai Mile who beat Arrest as a two year old but can be backed at over double the odds. There was plenty to like about his 5th in the 2000 Guineas over a trip woefully too short for him (he won a Group 1 as a juvenile over 10F on soft ground) and looks each way value at a top priced 16/1.   DUBAI MILE 1 point each way @ 16/1   Watch DubaiMile work this morning:- https://twitter.com/ValueRacingPlus/status/1661299085071077377?s=20  

i will run off the speed figures see if we have agreement.

Epsom Derby Speed figures, I will agree with Richard that most of this lot seem pretty average with the exception of a few.
1. The Foxes         139             8/1
2. White Birch      136             12/1
3. Passenger        131++p     13/2 (needs to be supplemented)
4 Military Order  129             3/1

The foxes looks a nice progressive horse for the baldings....I can see him running well 😀 ....tbh I get the white Birch....started last and came like a train and may have beaten foxes had it been further ...so I think it might be stupid not to include him based on that and prices 🤔 

Well Richard the Dante was quite exceptional in that it was by far the best 1m2f race of the last 3 years timewise so it is not a coincidence that the 3 in my list came out of that race. As it stands i think the first 3 are the ones to be on if and i stress if, the ground is good or good to firm. Passenger is a very interesting prospect it has any amount of improvement in it and was arguably unlucky in the Dante. I am seriously thinking of backing it for the arc, the 25/1 will be gone if it runs well in the Derby, the possibility of  heavy ground, usual for the Arc tempers my enthusiasm a bit because its an unknown form line at this point. the Dante is well worth watching a few times to try to gauge whether the best horse in the race came joint third although 13/2 is not my idea of a price on what we know, it may well drift as some bs will be spewed from the hype machine that is coolmore.

Yeah .....I think I need to watch a few reruns before making a final choice but at least I have a shortlist of 5 from 20 ...that's a start !!🤣

See ..my thinking with arrest is from the opposite side of coin.....he destroyed 104 and 105 rated horses by 6 1/2 lengths on the bit ...!!....on paper that puts him 115+ ......the hcaapper has pencilled him in 113 .....so he could be as high as 120 so a monster waiting to be unleashed ....because none of these are anywhere near that level ......its a very interesting puzzle I must say 🤔🤔
And another puzzle .....I did my own speed ratings on Dante......the 2 class 2s were also run over 1 second faster than standard so that suggests it was exceptionally fast ground tempering enthusiasm especially if ground were to come up anything soft in title 🤔
I'm sorta thinking a class 2 good race would average. 5 outside standard.....so that's a 1.5 diff over 8f is approx. 2 secs adjustment ....over 10f that's a full 2 secs ???....it was definately exceptionally fast ground for the time of year 

Well my conclusion of your result was similar to mine and is well worth remembering. That is that your grand national day selections were from a pool of horses where every runner was trying in every race, my best or i should say most consistent results come in pattern races where almost all are trying, Royal Ascot will be a very good time to do a lucky 15 not just per day but across the days (to do this you must know your horses, no use pin sticking). My advice to you or anyone else would be to do just one lucky 15 on your average day to day races throughout the season in the hope you get lucky and many in the festival races where your skill at selecting and knowledge of the horses will count for more. For the pinstickers i would suggest at ascot or festivals you choose 4 of the @The Brigadier selections from his write ups preferably the bigger prices. For even bigger prices i suggest you chuck one or two @richard-westwood selections in there.

A terrific afternoon’s racing with the ITV team bringing us four quality races from Newbury with the feature race the Lockinge Stakes at 15:35 and another three handicaps from an interesting card at Newmarket. The ground is drying and should ride perfect good ground at both tracks. Here are my best racing tips to beat the bookies.     Newbury 13:50 We start the afternoon’s racing off we an eight runner renewal of the 6F listed BetVictor Carnarvon Stakes. A warm favourite here is the Charlie Appleby trained Noble Style who reverts to sprinting having failed to stay a mile when running credibly in finishing 6th, beaten 5 1/2L, to Chaldean in the 2000 Guineas a fortnight ago. Unbeaten as a two year old including the Gimcrack at York sprinting may be his game and as he is officially rated 7lb and upwards better than his opposition he can strike under William Buick. The two improvers against him are the Charlie Hills trained Rabaah who’s looked a useful sort in winning at 6F at Lingfield and Wolverhampton earlier this year on the all weather. This is however a big step up in grade (he’s officially rated 27lb inferior to Noble Style) and whilst he can run well he’s unlikely to trouble the favourite. The other improver is the Julie Camacho trained Shaquille. Camacho has a proven touch with her sprinters but he too has to step up from his latest handicap win which came on soft ground at the Guineas meeting at Newmarket. Maybe the biggest threat to Noble Style is the Aidan O’Brien trained Aesop’s Fable who on official ratings only has 7lb to find but this should really be Noble Style’s to lose and he can win here and put himself in pole position for his next target the Commonwealth Cup at Royal Ascot next month for which he’s currently a top priced 6/1 for. It’s probably worth taking that 6/1 as if, as I expect, he wins well here then his odds for Royal Ascot are likely to tumble.   NOBLE STYLE 3 points win @ 10/11 Betfred NOBLE STYLE 2 points win @ 6/1 bet365 (Commonwealth Cup, Royal Ascot, June 23rd)   Newmarket 14:05 The first of three handicaps shown by ITV this afternoon is the class 4 1M 0-85 contest which has attracted 11 runners. John and Thady Gosden saddle an interesting runner in the handicap debutant Ceanna, a winner of a Southwell novice stakes back in December. Her owner George Strawbridge is over from his base in America to watch the likes of Free Wind and Epictetus at York so one would think the filly will be tuned up for this. Sean Woods’s Gulmarg ran a decent third at the last meeting here and with the winner winning well at Chester since should run well along with William Haggas’s Good Gracious who’s Newcastle class 5 handicap win last October has worked out well with the runner up and third both winning since. Andrew Balding’s Totnes was back to form on the all weather last time at Lingfield but has been re-assessed and is now 5lb higher. It will be interesting to see how she handles the turf today under David Probert. The horse I like is the Harry and Roger Charlton trained Acotango. The Charlton’s are having a rather lean time of it currently with 42 runs and 118 days since their last winner but they’ve had many placed recently with five runner ups in the past fortnight so stable form isn’t too much of a concern. The horse ran a stormer following a gelding operation when a one length second to the progressive Racingbreaks Ryder at Haydock, form which has been franked by subsequent wins by the winner and the third. A 3lb rise may not be enough to stop him putting the Charltons back in the winners enclosure.   ACOTANGO 1 points each way @ 9/2 bet365 1/5th 1234   Newbury 14:25 Seven go to post for the Group 3 Al Rayyan Stakes (known as The Aston Park Stakes to us of a certain age!). Like the Carnarvon Stakes previously we have a warm Godolphin favourite in the globe trotting Yibir. Not seen for 317 days he is the clear form horse with a rating of 119 which is 9lb and upwards better than any of his six rivals. A reproduction of his Princess Of Wakes Group 2 win last July would be good enough to win this but his record following an absence of more than 100 days reads 332 and although he’s the best horse here first time out may not be the best time to be with him especially at such a short price. So who can we take him on with? The most obvious is the Ralph Beckett trained, Frankie Dettori ridden filly Haskoy who was very lightly raced as a three year old winning twice and finishing a highly credible 4th in the St Leger. She has her tongue tied down here and with the Beckett team amongst the winners recently and running at 24% win ratio she’ll do for me. Andrew Balding’s saddles his mightily impressive dual all weather winner Old Harrovian who missed Chester last week due to softening ground but surely this is a step too far too early for him. He’s officially rated 25lb behind Yibir and what a shame his trainer couldn’t send him down the handicap route! The Gosdens run Israr who also missed Chester due to soft terrain whilst William Haggas re-introduces the promising Gaassee who hadn’t been seen since flopping in last year’s Ebor in August.   HASKOY 1 point win @ 4/1 William Hill   Newmarket 14:40 A eleven runner 0-105 three year old handicap is up next and is a race well worth following over the forthcoming months. Roger Varian’s Revenite is an interesting runner making his handicap debut following wins at Ascot and Kempton last September and is worth monitoring in the market. Kevin Ryan has been amongst the winners this week at York and saddles his Washington Heights who was runner up in a similar handicap over course and distance at the Guineas meeting. Better ground today may well suit and he has claims along with the unexposed Ararat, trained by David Simcock who’s making his handicap debut and doesn’t look that badly treated here with his latest second at Wolverhampton back in November franked by subsequent wins for the 4th and 5th from that race. The Kevin Philippart De Foy trained Expert Angel has been making hay on the all weather this year winning three times over this trip rising some 17lb and it remains to be seen how he copes reverting back to turf where he’s 0 from 3. My pick however is the Clive Cox trained Eminency who was unlucky in the run when last seen at Kempton in April in not getting a clear run up the inside and finishing with plenty of running in him. Off of the same mark and already proven on decent turf ground (he was pulled out on soft ground at the last meeting) he looks the bet here although I will reduce my stake as the Cox team are not in the best of form at the moment going 17 days and 30 runs since his last winner.   EMINENCY 1 point win @ 3/1 BetVictor   Newbury 15:00 An excellent renewal of the three year old handicap the BetVictor London Gold Cup run over 10F of the round course and a race that will be worth following over the forthcoming months. The weights are headed by the Godolphin owned Bold Act who surprisingly has been gelded since taking a keen hold and flopping at Newmarket at the Craven meeting. He has it to do here giving weight away to some promising types. Aidan O’Brien sends over Bertinelli who is still in the Derby and is making his handicap debut here. He could be competitive under Ryan Moore. Roger Varian saddles Exoplanet who has some fancy entries of his own and ran into the smart Military Order on his re-appearance here on soft ground and wasn’t disgraced in finishing a 4L second with Thursday’s winner Chesspiece just behind in third. He’s one for the short list although a draw of 16 is hardly a plus. Royal Rhyme bolted up at the Newmarket Guineas meeting but both of his two career wins have come on soft ground and the drying conditions may not be ideal. Desert Hero is a must for any short list having been entered in the King Edward VII at Royal Ascot recently (also still holds a Derby entry as well). This is his handicap debut having won at Haydock and Redcar on soft/heavy as a juvenile although his best effort came on good ground when third in the Group 3 Solario Stakes at Sandown in August. If his entries are anything to go by his mark of 94 could be very workable. There’s many others who could be given a chance with my best outsider at a big price being Richard Spencer’s Pjanoo who’s making his first appearance in a handicap and kept some good company as a juvenile. Desert Hero has to be the bet here although I can’t resist a saver on Exoplanet despite his wide draw.   DESERT HERO 2 points win @ 9/2 bet365 EXOPLANET 1 point win @ 5/1 bet365   Newbury 15:35 The day’s feature race is the Al Shaqab Lockinge Stakes ,a Group one contest run over the straight mile and we have a excellent sized field of thirteen for this year’s renewal. Preference has to be with the Charlie Appleby trained Modern Games who is as tough as they come having travelled around the world running consistently. A drawn of 13 may be deemed a disadvantage on the wing but William Buick will no doubt have a plan to drop him in and come with a late (hopefully winning!) run. The Gosden’s Laurel is taking on the boys for the first time in her life but is still relatively unexposed and can make a race of it with Frankie Dettori aiming to add to his last season riches. Mutasaabeq got the run of the race last time of Newmarket and was also giving weight all round. A reproduction of that run puts him bang in here with a winning chance but I’m just not sure whether he’ll be given as much rope out front on this occasion with the likes of front runner Jadoomi in the race.   MODERN GAMES 2 points win @ 3/1 William Hill LAUREL 1 point win @ 7/2 bet365     Newmarket 15:50 A seven runner class 2 0-105 handicap for four year olds and upwards is up next. The one they all have to beat is undoubtably the William Haggas trained five year old Montassib who appears to have more to give. Unsuited by heavy ground on his re-appearance in the Lincoln he then got no sort of run at Haydock last time when forcing his way through on the rails and flashing home under Cieran Fallon beaten only two lengths. Not young Fallon’s finest ride but off of the same handicap mark can make amends today. The first three home in a similar grade handicap run over course and distance at the Guineas meeting renew rivalry with Charlie Johnstone’s The Gatekeeper beating Ralph Beckett’s Star Of Orion by a length with David & Nicola Barron’s Persuasion half a length away in third. On the revised terms there shouldn’t be much between the trio although they may all have to go to beat the selection.   MONTASSIB 2 points win @ 3/1 bet365   All odds were accurate at time of writing.

335 Newbury - Interesting observation, sometimes its good to go back and look at previous time figures, the observation is that lusail (40/1) and Berkshire Shadow (33/1) were the fastest at two and were no slow coaches at three.

14.40 Newmarket
Quinault 2pt Win
Selection has great form and is a course and distance winner here.

Uttoxeter
18:05pm - Midnight Soldier 2nd 
18:35pm - Landofsmiles 1st
19:03pm - Hill View 2nd
19:35pm Dogem by Design 3rd
20: 35  pm - If Karl's Berg did 3rd

5.35 Uttox - Dancingontheedge - 7/2 ... one from my tracker - for me it was a non-trier LTO when a beaten favourite. It was ridden at the back before taking a very scenic route and running an extra furlong to the others ... the trainers other runner won the race. It is Paul Nichols only runner at Uttoxeter where he has a 21% strike rate. He also has recent form of 2 wins , 3 placed, from 8 runners so is in form as well. Horse wears a tongue tie first time.

I don't trust any clerk of courses or cards these days , I used to bet on French racing start & end of flat season when going in soft / heavy but lost count the amount of times Sporting Life / At The Races / Racing Post list going at French courses as soft / heavy in the morning but afternoon it's Good , something's not right .