Squirrel Nutkin

McIlroy has a chance

Most of your posts are confusing, but this is a whole new level. 

Most of your posts are confusing, but this is a whole new level. 

Golf

That

I fancy the players who did well at the US Open

In case of interest, link here to sign up to a couple of tipping services for free,
I've been listening to a few of the Smart Betting Club podcasts including the guy who does the European Tour tips that are variable. I was quite impressed by how he came across. He has a profitable US golf service and is making the new European service available for free for now.
https://smartbettingclub.com/freetipsters/
 

Having lived in San Diego for 5 years, I spent a lot of time enjoying my golf (mostly on Torrey Pines North and South courses).. Probably played 50 rounds or more on each. I was a good golfer in the scratch to 3 handicap range.
There are few courses around the world that will set up as difficult as Torrey pines South, in US open conditions. Three main factors;
1) The length. Even for big hitters, it is damn long, and it's at sea level.
2) The rough. They used to play the Buick Invitational at Torrey (now the Farmer's Insurance), but when they grow that rough, the difficulty level goes through the roof. The week after the Buick, people camp in the parking lot to be first to play a 'PGA' layout/conditioned course. Rounds take 6 hours, because nobody can find their ball when they hit it in the rough. It's insane, 6 inch rough, over seeded (like strands of thick string). Much tougher rough than in Dubai, Leopard creek, Augusta. In the rough you are probably dropping a stroke.
3) The sea breeze. Torrey is right on the Pacific. The wind rolls in, hits the cliffs at Black's beach, and creates a tough wall to penetrate. The low stroke holes (into that breeze) are brutal (hole 1, and hole 12 especially). The cross wind holes like #2, #4, #5 require ball shaping to counter the wind. I did watch Tiger play one year, and he made mincemeat of the wind, but he was a reasonably good golfer ... But until you see it, you can't actually believe how well/hard they strike the ball.
So with this in mind, this course is an accurate, medium to low, BIG ball strikers paradise. Guys that can't average 285 yards or better off the T have zero chance to win here. They will be 60 - 75 yards behind a big bomber.
An example : Brendon Todd, who leads in accuracy off the Tee, but 'only' hits it 275 yards won't even make the cut. Long irons into greens are a disaster, because the green side rough is right in play all day.
I like DeChambeau, McIIroy, Champ, Johnson, Finau, Hovland, Rahm, Koepka as big ball hitters. I like Johnson as a ball striker the best, but his putting gibbers have come back.  Koepka, the knees are still not 100%, Mcllroy can't putt and has a double/triple bogey hand grenade in his pocket..  So DeChambeau  ...does drive and gouge work again, or Rahm?
I would add San Diego native, Schauffele (who would have played a ton of golf on that course). Mickelson won't get away with hitting it in the rough on this course and he probably misses the cut for me.
Five Saffers could be in the mix. Oosthuizen, Higgo, van Rooyen, Grace and Nienaber.    
Grace because of his low ball flight, Oosthuizen because he is ridiculously good (and #1 in putting) for a small guy (also grew up playing in the wind on the coast)., Higgo the hottest golfer on the planet (the guy has seriously impressive mindset, and maturity for a 21 year old). He also has this crazy  easy power.
Nienaber who's gonna send DeChambeau to the funny farm with his 365 yard drives and swing speed.  But mentally he is not ready to win. The tournament he blew (I think between Higgo's wins on the Euro tour is a prime example).
Top Saffer ... Higgo.
For the others ... (Fritelli no form, Schwartzel's temper will let him down, Bezuidenthout close but nothing brilliant, Aiken short hitter)
My feeling is that Torrey wipes the floor with the field. Forget 10 under, the winner will be closer to even par. Whoever handles this mental challenge  the best, and keeps himself under control will triumph. Cut is probably +6 and playing + golf is a weird head space for pro golfers. This could be carnage!!!
Winner comes from DeCHAMBEAU, FINAU, RAHM, HOVLAND, HIGGO, OOSTHUIZEN for me
 
 

A successful week with 32 winning bets.  Top performer was Squirrel Nutkin with a 17/1 treble   followed by Hotpotklonk with 14/1 and Cuko 11/1.
Special mentions too for Alex Bird with 4 winning bets in a row, and Zidane123 who has not had a losing week yet with 5 wins (2 no shows) over the 7 weeks.
Competition is hotting up in the overall standings, we now have 3 players over £500 and 20 in the double bank club. 

 








 

Honda LPGA this week. One of my favourite tournaments as I know the course well. I used to play it a couple a times a month about 15yrs ago. Not an easy course ( well not for me anyway!!)
Your Chinese girl Liu has played well here before . 10th either in 2019 or 2018. Just giving you the heads up in case you missed her!!
I have not seen the entrants list yet, but there are a couple of Thai girls who should do well if playing ...Patty T played well in the HSBC, as did Muriya Jutanugarn ( top ten finisher here the last twice)

Cheers! If you only win one, make it count! ? 

Millwall     2.00
Ipswich      2.50
Southend    3.60
15pt treble
?? 

Millwall     2.00
Ipswich      2.50
Southend    3.60
15pt treble
?? 

Based on a book I read 30 years ago................It suggested that a player improves after the birth of his first child(not sure about LPGA).
Something to do with the relief of the birth and the joy of having a child.
John Rahm became a daddy for the first time on Sunday so he will be carrying my money
2 pence e/w  John Rahm to win the masters 11/1 Sky Bet (11 places 1/5 the odds)
 
 
(disclaimer I lost £2000 in the 90's following advice of aforementioned book)

The old 1-2 forecast

Finally a decent winner! And typically I done myself out of another 20+ points by backing JT w/o the big 6, instead of a regular ew. But then maybe I would have had a smaller stake. With Casey getting a place the bank goes up to +5! So I'm in profit, for 3 days at least! 

The players championship is next 

Brentford     1.91
Harrogate    1.83
Forest G       1.83
20 point treble 
?? 

Cardiff     2.05
Wimbledon     2.00
Forest Green  1.95
20 point treble
??

Hull    1.50
Blackpool     1.65
Port Vale      1.83
15 point win treble
??

Phew, now you can't blame me!

Portsmouth postponed !
Norwich 1.80
Forest Green 1.80
Salford 2.62
10 point win treble
??????

??‍♂️ This is a nightmare scenario, almost certainly 3 out of 4 will win. But I'll have to go with you and leave out Salford. ?

Bournemouth.  1.65
Peterborough   1.53
Southend.         3.20
10 point win treble
??

Bournemouth   1.73
Ipswich              1.85
Cheltenham      1.85
20 point win treble
??