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Zilzalian

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  1. Like
    Zilzalian got a reaction from harry_rag in SPEED RATINGS   
    " the horse with the highest speed rating on its last run"  can you expand on this? how would you rate/bet it in a race? on its last run or its best speed figure?
  2. Like
    Zilzalian reacted to MCLARKE in Racing Chat - Friday 5th April   
    Not a pessimist, more a realist
    The main change I have made this year is to limit my selections to those with forecast odds of 7/2 to 13/2
  3. Like
    Zilzalian got a reaction from MCLARKE in SPEED RATINGS   
    Suggestion. Royal Ascot is not really that far off so if we speed rate the same 3 races per day lets see how they compare we can also add in @Trotter if he fancy's it  and see if we can learn something from the results.
  4. Like
    Zilzalian got a reaction from MCLARKE in SPEED RATINGS   
    Run your system with the going correction and then without compare the list and see if it makes much difference.
  5. Like
    Zilzalian got a reaction from MCLARKE in SPEED RATINGS   
    Will 100% support the assessment of regional very unusual for a horse to return 4 consecutive numbers above 130.
  6. Like
    Zilzalian got a reaction from Bronxie in SPEED RATINGS   
    Occams Razor lads, Occams Razor....
  7. Like
    Zilzalian got a reaction from MCLARKE in SPEED RATINGS   
    My apologies i didn't for one second intend my response to seem harsh i was merely answering the two points. For what its worth i have never solved the riddle of why on average the highest speed figures are distance biased. One thing i do know is that because of the nature of sprints you can get varied results when applied to actual races especially in handicaps however the more interesting speed figures are 08f+ and are stronger the more distance.
  8. Like
    Zilzalian reacted to MCLARKE in SPEED RATINGS   
    Be gentle with me, I'm an absolute beginner at this.
    A bit harsh my friend !
    Remember what I said at the beginning "Be gentle with me, I'm an absolute beginner at this".
    I may amend them at some stage but I'll run with them to start off with.
    I think the logic may be flawed for longer distances on soft to heavy going because as the distance gets longer the impact will be greater in terms of seconds per mile compared to the shorter distances.
    As an example, the Bath meeting on heavy going on the 18th October.

    The longer distances are considerably slower compared to the standard than the shorter distances. This results in the sprints having much higher speed figures than longer races. 
    I have a nagging doubt I'm missing something in my logic, I'm sure somebody will point it out.
  9. Like
    Zilzalian reacted to Tedthewolf in Grand National Antepost   
    "I have had a good look at the GN and my conclusion is that this year is weaker than last"
    Well if that's the case  surely  ROI MAGE @ 66/1  is worth chucking a few pounds e/w last years 7th only run out of it after the elbow. I'm on!!!
  10. Like
    Zilzalian got a reaction from richard-westwood in Grand National Antepost   
    I think i got the value. Rambler is now a ridiculous price. 😁
  11. Like
    Zilzalian got a reaction from MCLARKE in SPEED RATINGS   
    I had a similar/same system as your guy but noted all the placed horse that achieved a bigger speed figure than the winner due to weight differences, my biggest earner was a horse of Mark Johnsons called Yavanas Pace (switched from Ireland) that came forth in a class C handicap it ended up winning a Group 1 after winning the November handicap and many other races usually at decent odds. There is gold in them there speed figures lads.
  12. Like
    Zilzalian got a reaction from Barnes Spurs in Grand National Antepost   
    I think i got the value. Rambler is now a ridiculous price. 😁
  13. Like
    Zilzalian got a reaction from black rabbit in SPEED RATINGS   
    I had a similar/same system as your guy but noted all the placed horse that achieved a bigger speed figure than the winner due to weight differences, my biggest earner was a horse of Mark Johnsons called Yavanas Pace (switched from Ireland) that came forth in a class C handicap it ended up winning a Group 1 after winning the November handicap and many other races usually at decent odds. There is gold in them there speed figures lads.
  14. Like
    Zilzalian reacted to MCLARKE in Looking For Sponsor/Promotion   
    Good luck with this @RobsSelections
    We have started a thread on speed ratings, perhaps you might like to add a few comments on there in terms of how you approach calculating speed figures, I am new to the subject but it is certainly thought provoking
  15. Like
    Zilzalian reacted to harry_rag in Looking For Sponsor/Promotion   
    Welcome to the forum @RobsSelections though I think you were perhaps fortunate to get past the spam criteria given such a blatant touting for business!  Perhaps "the management" have viewed it as a job application!
    Given the comments about showcasing your selections can we assume you will be keeping an accurate record of strike rate, P/L and ROI? Otherwise you may as well post your selections in the daily thread along with everyone else.
    Those sentiments would have carried a lot more credibility if you hadn't immediately followed them with a claim of 5 winning bets from 6 yesterday! 
  16. Confused
    Zilzalian got a reaction from MCLARKE in Naps - Saturday 30th March   
    3.10 real world 66/1 bet365
  17. Like
    Zilzalian reacted to richard-westwood in Racing Chat - Saturday 30th March   
    Meydan 225 
    Tuz.  8.9 15/2 
    Mouheeb  8.8 16/1 
    Sibelus  8.5 
    Leading spirit 8.2 
    5pt Ew top 2 
    @Zilzalian
    1 Leading Spirit         132
    2 Mouheeb                131
    3 Tuz/Colour up       130
    Wow ....that's snap 😂
  18. Like
    Zilzalian got a reaction from kroni in DAILY LUCKY 15   
  19. Like
    Zilzalian got a reaction from tonythepaint in DAILY LUCKY 15   
  20. Like
    Zilzalian got a reaction from LEE-GRAYS in DAILY LUCKY 15   
  21. Like
    Zilzalian reacted to Trotter in Dubai World Cup Speed Figures.   
    ITV will now show the 1.50 and 2.25 after Musselburgh was abandoned
  22. Like
    Zilzalian got a reaction from The Equaliser in DAILY LUCKY 15   
  23. Thanks
    Zilzalian got a reaction from LEE-GRAYS in Dubai World Cup Speed Figures.   
    A few proviso's here.
    I could only rate Runners from Britain, Ireland, Meydan, and Jebel Ali.
    Which leaves out Japan and the USA. So a bit of caution is advised.
    12:05
    1 Isolate                        129        3rd
    2 Remorse                    129
    3 Swing Vote                127
    12:40
    1 Coltrane                    143
    2 Enemy                       134
    3 Tower of London     133      won
    1:30
    1 Danyah                      136
    2 Emeraaty Anna        136
    3 Dilligent Harry          132    3rd
    1:50
    1 Mendelsson Bay      (my best guess)
    2:25
    1 Leading Spirit         132
    2 Mouheeb                131
    3 Tuz/Colour up       130    won 10/1 /up
    3:10
    1 Luxembourg         145
    2 Real World             135
    3 Nashwa                  134
    4:00
    1 August Rodin         143
    2 Spirit Dancer          133
    3 Emily Upjohn          131
    4:35
    1 Military Law             126
    2 Derm Sotogaki        125
    3 Laurel River             123   won 17/2
    Made a bit of profit on the day by way of my Tadhg  O'Shea double on my  O'Shea (L15) and a few bits and bobs on the places/extra places. but overall as usual at this meeting there were some iffy results so can't really complain.
  24. Like
    Zilzalian got a reaction from kroni in DAILY LUCKY 15   
  25. Like
    Zilzalian got a reaction from tonythepaint in DAILY LUCKY 15   
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